Analysis of the time evolution of COVID-19 lethality during the first epidemic wave in Italy

COVID-19 Vaccination and Public Health: Addressing Global, Regional, and Within-Country Inequalities

The COVID-19 pandemic, with over 775 million cases and 7 million deaths by May 2024, has drastically impacted global public health and exacerbated existing healthcare inequalities. The swift development and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines have been critical in combating the virus, yet disparities in access to and administration of the vaccine have highlighted deep-seated inequities at global, regional, and national levels. Wealthier nations have benefited from early access to vaccines, while low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) have faced persistent shortages. Initiatives such as COVAX aimed to address these disparities, but challenges persist. Socioeconomic factors, education, ethnic identity, and the healthcare infrastructure play crucial roles in vaccine equity. For example, lower-income individuals often face barriers such as poor access to healthcare, misinformation, and logistical challenges, particularly in rural areas. Addressing these inequities requires a multifaceted approach, integrating national policies with local strategies to enhance vaccines' accessibility, counter misinformation, and ensure equitable distribution. Collaborative efforts at all levels are essential to promote vaccine equity and effectively control the pandemic, ensuring that all populations have fair access to life-saving vaccines. This review explores these complex issues, offering insights into the barriers and facilitators of vaccine equity and providing recommendations to promote more equitable and effective vaccination programs. With a focus on the different levels at which vaccination policies are planned and implemented, the text provides guidelines to steer vaccination strategies, emphasizing the role of international cooperation and local policy frameworks as keys to achieving equitable vaccination coverage.

Association between Malnutrition and Depression in Patients with Cancer: The Importance of Nutritional Status Evaluation in Cancer Care

Cancer patients are at risk of several comorbid conditions, including nutritional issues and mental health illnesses. The objective of the current study was to estimate the prevalence, upon hospital admission, of depression and malnutrition among adults with cancer. A retrospective chart review was conducted using health information collected as part of routine assistance. Nutritional status was measured through structured tools, including body mass index (BMI), Nutrition Risk Screening (NRS) 2002, and dietary intake needs. Depression was assessed with the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HAD). Cancer site, disease stage, length of hospitalization, age, and sex were also considered. Multivariate analyses were used to investigate the association between malnutrition and depression. In summary, our study reveals that malnutrition increases the risk of depression among cancer patients. The findings can also be used in clinical oncology for the implementation of appropriate prevention and treatment interventions in order to reduce the extent of depression and thus improve cancer patients' quality of life and survival rate.

Evolution of the lethality due to SARS-CoV-2 in Spain according to age group and sex

The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in China in December 2019 has posed a major challenge to health systems in all countries around the world. One of the most relevant epidemiological measures to consider during the course of a pandemic is the proportion of cases that eventually die from the disease (case fatality ratio, CFR). Monitoring the evolution of this indicator is of paramount importance because it allows for the assessment of both variations in the lethality of the virus and the effectiveness of the control measures implemented by health authorities. One of the problems with estimating the CFR in practice is that the available data only show daily or weekly counts of new cases and deaths; there is no information on when each deceased patient was infected and therefore it is not possible to know exactly how many cases there were at the time the patient became infected. Various approaches have been proposed for calculating the CFR by correcting for the time lag between infection and death. In this paper, we present a novel methodology to perform a non-parametric estimation of the evolution of the CFR by initially identifying an optimal time lag between infections and deaths. The goodness of this procedure is assessed by means of a simulation study and the method is applied to the estimation of the CFR in Spain in the period from July 2020 to March 2022.

The effect of laboratory-verified smoking on SARS-CoV-2 infection: results from the Troina sero-epidemiological survey

Previous research yielded conflicting results on the association between cigarette smoking and risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Since the prevalence of smoking is high globally, the study of its impact on COVID-19 pandemic may have considerable implications for public health. This study is the first to investigate the association between the SARS-CoV-2 antibody sero-positivity and biochemically verified smoking status, to refine current estimates on this association. SARS-CoV-2-specific IgG and serum cotinine levels (a well-known marker of tobacco exposure) were assessed in a large sero-epidemiological survey conducted in the town of Troina (Sicily, Italy). A propensity score matching was carried out to reduce the effect of possible factors on SARS-CoV-2 infection risk among study participants. Of the 1785 subjects included in our study, one-third was classified as current smokers, based on serum cotinine levels. The overall proportion of subjects with positive serology for SARS-CoV-2 IgG was 5.4%. The prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibody positivity and previous COVID-19 diagnosis were reduced in smokers. This reduced prevalence persisted after adjusting for possible confounders (such as sex, age, previous infection, chronic conditions, and risk group) at regression analyses, and the point estimates based on the PS-matched models resulted consistent with those for the unmatched population. This study found a lower proportion of positive SARS-CoV-2 serology among current smokers, using direct laboratory measures of tobacco exposure and thus avoiding possible bias associated with self-reported smoking status. Results may also serve as a reference for future clinical research on potential pharmaceutical role of nicotine or nicotinic-cholinergic agonists against COVID-19.

Improvements throughout the Three Waves of COVID-19 Pandemic: Results from 4 Million Inhabitants of North-West Italy

At the very beginning of the European spread of SARS-CoV-2, Piedmont was one of the most affected regions in Italy, with a strong impact on healthcare organizations. In this study, we evaluated the characteristics and outcomes of the COVID-19 patients in an entire region during the first three pandemic waves, identifying similarities and differences in the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic’s timeline. We collected the health-administrative data of all the Piedmont COVID-19 patients infected during the first three pandemic waves (1 March 2020–15 April 2020; 15 October 2020–15 December 2020; 1 March 2021–15 April 2021, respectively). We compared differences among the waves in subjects positive for SARS-CoV-2 and in patients admitted to ICU. Overall, 18.621 subjects tested positive during the first wave (405 patients/day), 144.350 (2366.4 patients/day) in the second, and 81.823 (1778.8 patients/day) in the third. In the second and third waves, we observed a reduction in median age, comorbidity burden, mortality in outpatients, inpatients, and patients admitted to ICU, in intubation, invasive ventilation and tracheostomy, and a parallel increase in the use of CPAP. Our study confirmed a trend towards younger and healthier patients over time but also showed an independent effect of the period on mortality and ICU admission. The appearance of new viral variants, the starting of vaccination, and organizational improvements in tracking, outpatients and inpatients management could have influenced these trends.

The Italian PrEPventHIV challenge: a scoping systematic review on HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis monitoring in Italy

BACKGROUND AND AIM

In Italy, pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) with emtricitabine and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (FTC/TDF) was authorized for HIV prevention in 2017. This scoping systematic review summarizes current evidence on PrEP implementation in Italy since 2017.

METHODS

A systematic search was conducted in relevant databases, using a search strategy built upon controlled vocabulary, cross-referencing of the citation lists from included reports, and hand-searching of surveillance documents. Findings were summarized narratively according to key issues and themes.

RESULTS

A total of 106 reports were retrieved and six met criteria for inclusion in the review, being three journal articles and three surveillance report by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC). In Italy, users can obtain in PrEP in specific hospital- or community-based PrEP services, under prescription by specialists. Due to drug costs, the access is limited to those who can afford it. Data and indicators on PrEP use and monitoring are limited. The vast majority of users were men who have sex with men. In this population, PrEP knowledge and attitudes were investigated across two reports, finding a medium to high level to knowledge and a scare use (mostly due to high costs). A health technology assessment on the adoption of PrEP in Italy advised that the most cost-containing strategy would be the use of PrEP as an "add-on" strategy.

CONCLUSIONS

In conclusion, this scoping review found a relevant evidence gap on PrEP monitoring. Italy needs to implement specific policies and programs for effective and timely delivery of care.

Azithromycin Has Been Flying Off the Shelves: The Italian Lesson Learnt from Improper Use of Antibiotics against COVID-19

The warning by the Italian Medicines Agency on the high shortage of azithromycin in the country in January 2022 represents a paradigmatic lesson learnt from improper use of antibiotics during COVID-19 pandemic.

The Effect of Smoking on Humoral Response to COVID-19 Vaccines: A Systematic Review of Epidemiological Studies

While the role of active smoking on response to vaccines is yet to be fully understood, some real-world studies have outlined a possible link between smoking and humoral response to COVID-19 vaccines. Thus, the present rapid systematic review aimed at summarizing the current epidemiological evidence on this association. Following PRISMA and WHO guidelines on rapid systematic reviews, we systematically reviewed published literature on this topic and discussed the findings according to the aim of analysing smoking and its impact on humoral response to COVID-19 postvaccination antibody titres. The search strategy yielded a total of 23 articles. The sample size amongst the studies ranged between 74 and 3475 participants (median, 360), with the proportion of smokers being between 4.2% and 40.8% (median, 26.0%). The studies included in this review analysis investigated the dynamics of antibody response to different type of COVID-19 vaccines. In 17 out of 23 studies, current smokers showed much lower antibody titres or more rapid lowering of the vaccine-induced IgG compared with nonsmokers. This rapid systematic review indicates that active smoking negatively impacts humoral response to COVID-19 vaccines, although the pathophysiologic mechanisms for this association have not been entirely suggested. The results advocate targeted policies to promote tailored health promotion initiatives, which can increase risk perception and ensure appropriate protection measures to be taken to avoid the health consequences of COVID-19 in smokers.

The temporal correlation between positive testing and death in Italy: from the first phase to the later evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic

BACKGROUND AND AIM

After the global spread of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), research has concentrated its efforts on several aspects of the epidemiological burden of pandemic. In this frame, the presented study follows a previous analysis of the temporal link between cases and deaths during the first epidemic wave (Phase 1) in Italy (March-June 2020).

METHODS

We here analyze the COVID-19 epidemic in the time span from March 2020 to June 2021.

RESULTS

The elaboration of the curves of cases and deaths allows identifying the temporal shift between the positive testing and the fatal event, which corresponds to one week from W2 to W33, two weeks from W34 to W41, and three weeks from W42 to W67. Based on this finding, we calculate the Weekly Lethality Rate (WLR). The WLR was grossly overestimated (~13.5%) in Phase 1, while a mean value of 2.6% was observed in most of Phase 2 (starting from October 2020), with a drop to 1.4% in the last investigated weeks.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, these findings offer an interesting insight into the magnitude and time evolution of the lethality burden attributable to COVID-19 during the entire pandemic period in Italy. In particular, the analysis highlighted the impact of the effectiveness of public health and social measures, of changes in disease management, and of preventive strategies over time.  (www.actabiomedica.it).

Genomic Snapshot of SARS-CoV-2 in Migrants Entering Through Mediterranean Sea Routes

In December 2019, a novel coronavirus emerged in Wuhan, China, rapidly spreading into a global pandemic. Italy was the first European country to experience SARS-CoV-2 epidemic, and one of the most severely affected during the first wave of diffusion. In contrast to the general restriction of people movements in Europe, the number of migrants arriving at Italian borders via the Mediterranean Sea route in the summer of 2020 had increased dramatically, representing a possible, uncontrolled source for the introduction of novel SARS-CoV-2 variants. Importantly, most of the migrants came from African countries showing limited SARS-CoV-2 epidemiological surveillance. In this study, we characterized the SARS-CoV-2 genome isolated from an asymptomatic migrant arrived in Sardinia via the Mediterranean route in September 2020, in comparison with SARS-CoV-2 isolates arrived in Sicily through the Libyan migration route; with SARS-CoV-2 isolates circulating in Sardinia during 2020; and with viral genomes reported in African countries during the same summer. Results showed that our sequence is not phylogenetically related to isolates from migrants arriving in Sicily, nor to isolates circulating in Sardinia territory, having greater similarity to SARS-CoV-2 genomes reported in countries known for being sites of migrant embarkation to Italy. This is in line with the hypothesis that most SARS-CoV-2 infections among migrants have been acquired prior to embarking to Italy, possibly during the travel to or the stay in crowded Libyan immigrant camps. Overall, these observations underline the importance of dedicated SARS-CoV-2 surveillance of migrants arriving in Italy and in Europe through the Mediterranean routes.

Seroepidemiological Survey on the Impact of Smoking on SARS-CoV-2 Infection and COVID-19 Outcomes: Protocol for the Troina Study

Background

After the global spread of SARS-CoV-2, research has highlighted several aspects of the pandemic, focusing on clinical features and risk factors associated with infection and disease severity. However, emerging results on the role of smoking in SARS-CoV-2 infection susceptibility or COVID-19 outcomes are conflicting, and their robustness remains uncertain.

Objective

In this context, this study aims at quantifying the proportion of SARS-CoV-2 antibody seroprevalence, studying the changes in antibody levels over time, and analyzing the association between the biochemically verified smoking status and SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Methods

The research design involves a 6-month prospective cohort study with a serial sampling of the same individuals. Each participant will be surveyed about their demographics and COVID-19–related information, and blood sampling will be collected upon recruitment and at specified follow-up time points (ie, after 8 and 24 weeks). Blood samples will be screened for the presence of SARS-CoV-2–specific antibodies and serum cotinine, being the latter of the principal metabolite of nicotine, which will be used to assess participants’ smoking status.

Results

The study is ongoing. It aims to find a higher antibody prevalence in individuals at high risk for viral exposure (ie, health care personnel) and to refine current estimates on the association between smoking status and SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19.

Conclusions

The added value of this research is that the current smoking status of the population to be studied will be biochemically verified to avoid the bias associated with self-reported smoking status. As such, the results from this survey may provide an actionable metric to study the role of smoking in SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 outcomes, and therefore to implement the most appropriate public health measures to control the pandemic. Results may also serve as a reference for future clinical research, and the methodology could be exploited in public health sectors and policies.

International Registered Report Identifier (IRRID)

DERR1-10.2196/32285