Spatial Epidemiology and Its Role in Prevention and Control of Swine Viral Disease

Spatial epidemiology offers a comprehensive framework for analyzing the spatial distribution and transmission of diseases, leveraging advanced technical tools and software, including Geographic Information Systems (GISs), remote sensing technology, statistical and mathematical software, and spatial analysis tools. Despite its increasing application to swine viral diseases (SVDs), certain challenges arise from its interdisciplinary nature. To support novices, frontline veterinarians, and public health policymakers in navigating its complexities, we provide a comprehensive overview of the common applications of spatial epidemiology in SVD. These applications are classified into four categories based on their objectives: visualizing and elucidating spatiotemporal distribution patterns, identifying risk factors, risk mapping, and tracing the spatiotemporal evolution of pathogens. We further elucidate the technical methods, software, and considerations necessary to accomplish these objectives. Additionally, we address critical issues such as the ecological fallacy and hypothesis generation in geographic correlation analysis. Finally, we explore the future prospects of spatial epidemiology in SVD within the One Health framework, offering a valuable reference for researchers engaged in the spatial analysis of SVD and other epidemics.

Assessment of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) farm surface contamination through environmental sampling

BACKGROUND

During the fall of 2020, the porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) L1C.5 variant emerged and rapidly spread throughout southern Minnesota generating questions regarding possible transmission routes. This study aimed to investigate whether PRRSV could be detected on surfaces inside and outside pig barns housing L1C.5 variant PRRSV-positive pigs to illustrate the potential for indirect transmission of PRRSV. Seven Midwestern U.S. PPRS-positive breeding or growing pig farms and one PRRS-negative farm were conveniently selected. Internal and external barn surfaces were wiped using a PBS moistened cloth and the resulting liquid was submitted to the University of Minnesota Veterinary Diagnostic Laboratory for PRRSV RT-PCR testing and virus isolation.

RESULTS

All (n = 26) samples from PRRSV-negative farm tested negative. Nineteen (13%) out of 143 samples from positive farms yielded positive RT-PCR results. Positive samples originated primarily from exhaust fan cones and doorknobs, followed by anteroom floor and mortality carts/sleds. Virus isolation attempted on two samples did not yield positive results.

CONCLUSIONS

PRRSV contamination can occur on surfaces inside and outside pig barns that are in frequent contact with farm personnel. Although virus isolation attempts were negative, our results illustrate the potential for PRRSV to be transmitted indirectly through contaminated materials or farm personnel. The study supports the implementation of biosecurity practices by farm personnel to prevent the introduction of PRRSV into farms and the prevention of PRRSV transmission between farms.

Prevalence and genetic evolution of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus in commercial fattening pig farms in China

BACKGROUND

To investigate the prevalence and evolution of Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome Virus (PRRSV) at commercial fattening pig farms, a total of 1397 clinical samples were collected from a single fattening cycle at seven pig farms in five provinces of China from 2020 to 2021.

RESULTS

The RT‒PCR results revealed that PRRSV was present on all seven farms, and the percentage of PRRSV-positive individuals was 17.54-53.33%. A total of 344 partial NSP2 gene sequences and 334 complete ORF5 gene sequences were obtained from the positive samples. The statistical results showed that PRRSV-2 was present on all seven commercial fattening farms, and PRRSV-1 was present on only one commercial fattening farm. A total of six PRRSV-2 subtypes were detected, and five of the seven farms had two or more PRRSV-2 subtypes. L1.8 (L1C) PRRSV was the dominant epidemic strain on five of the seven pig farms. Sequence analysis of L1.8 (L1C) PRRSV from different commercial fattening pig farms revealed that its consistency across farms varied substantially. The amino acid alignment results demonstrated that there were 131 aa discontinuous deletions in NSP2 between different L1.8 (L1C) PRRSV strains and that the GP5 mutation in L1.8 (L1C) PRRSV was mainly concentrated in the peptide signal region and T-cell epitopes. Selection pressure analysis of GP5 revealed that the use of the PRRSV MLV vaccine had no significant episodic diversifying effect on L1.8 (L1C) PRRSV.

CONCLUSION

PRRSV infection is common at commercial fattening pig farms in China, and the percentage of positive individuals is high. There are multiple PRRSV subtypes of infection at commercial fattening pig farms in China. L1.8 (L1C) is the main circulating PRRSV strain on commercial fattening pig farms. L1.8 (L1C) PRRSV detected at different commercial fattening pig farms exhibited substantial differences in consistency but similar molecular characteristics. The pressure on the GP5 of L1.8 (L1C) PRRSV may not be directly related to the use of the vaccines.

Modeling the Seasonal Variation of Windborne Transmission of Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome Virus between Swine Farms

Modeling the windborne transmission of aerosolized pathogens is challenging. We adapted an atmospheric dispersion model named the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model to simulate the windborne dispersion of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSv) between swine farms and incorporated the findings into an outbreak investigation. The risk was estimated semi-quantitatively based on the cumulative daily deposition of windborne particles and the distance to the closest emitting farm with an ongoing outbreak. Five years of data (2014:2018) were used to study the seasonal differences of the deposition thresholds of the airborne particles containing PRRSv and to evaluate the model in relation to risk prediction and barn air filtration. When the 14-day cumulative deposition was considered, in winter, above-threshold particle depositions would reach up to 30 km from emitting farms with 84% of them being within 10 km. Long-distance pathogen transmission was highest in winter and fall, lower in spring, and least in summer. The model successfully replicated the observed seasonality of PRRSv, where fall and winter posed a higher risk for outbreaks. Reaching the humidity and temperature thresholds tolerated by the virus in spring and summer reduced the survival and infectivity of aerosols beyond 10-20 km. Within the data limitations of voluntary participation, when wind was assumed to be the sole route of PRRSv transmission, the predictive performance of the model was fair with >0.64 AUC. Barn air filtration was associated with fewer outbreaks, particularly when exposed to high levels of viral particles. This study confirms the usefulness of the HYSPLIT model as a tool when determining seasonal effects and distances and informs the near real-time risk of windborne PRRSv transmission that can be useful in future outbreak investigations and for implementing timely control measures.

Spatiotemporal relative risk distribution of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus in the United States

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) remains widely distributed across the U.S. swine industry. Between-farm movements of animals and transportation vehicles, along with local transmission are the primary routes by which PRRSV is spread. Given the farm-to-farm proximity in high pig production areas, local transmission is an important pathway in the spread of PRRSV; however, there is limited understanding of the role local transmission plays in the dissemination of PRRSV, specifically, the distance at which there is increased risk for transmission from infected to susceptible farms. We used a spatial and spatiotemporal kernel density approach to estimate PRRSV relative risk and utilized a Bayesian spatiotemporal hierarchical model to assess the effects of environmental variables, between-farm movement data and on-farm biosecurity features on PRRSV outbreaks. The maximum spatial distance calculated through the kernel density approach was 15.3 km in 2018, 17.6 km in 2019, and 18 km in 2020. Spatiotemporal analysis revealed greater variability throughout the study period, with significant differences between the different farm types. We found that downstream farms (i.e., finisher and nursery farms) were located in areas of significant-high relative risk of PRRSV. Factors associated with PRRSV outbreaks were farms with higher number of access points to barns, higher numbers of outgoing movements of pigs, and higher number of days where temperatures were between 4°C and 10°C. Results obtained from this study may be used to guide the reinforcement of biosecurity and surveillance strategies to farms and areas within the distance threshold of PRRSV positive farms.

Rapid genotyping of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) using MinION nanopore sequencing

The global distribution and constant evolution are challenges for the control of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV), one of the most important viruses affecting swine worldwide. Effective control of PRRSV benefits from genotyping, which currently relies on Sanger sequencing. Here we developed and optimized procedures for real-time genotyping and whole genome sequencing of PRRSV directly from clinical samples based on targeted amplicon- and long amplicon tiling sequencing using the MinION Oxford Nanopore platform. Procedures were developed and tested on 154 clinical samples (including lung, serum, oral fluid and processing fluid) with RT-PCR Ct values ranging from 15 to 35. The targeted amplicon sequencing (TAS) approach was developed to obtain sequences of the complete ORF5 (main target gene for PRRSV genotyping) and partial ORF4 and ORF6 sequences of both PRRSV-1 and PRRSV-2 species. After only 5 min of sequencing, PRRSV consensus sequences with identities to reference sequences above 99% were obtained, enabling rapid identification and genotyping of clinical PRRSV samples into lineages 1, 5 and 8. The long amplicon tiling sequencing (LATS) approach targets type 2 PRRSV, the most prevalent viral species in the U.S. and China. Complete PRRSV genomes were obtained within the first hour of sequencing for samples with Ct values below 24.9. Ninety-two whole genome sequences were obtained using the LATS procedure. Fifty out of 60 sera (83.3%) and 18 out of 20 lung samples (90%) had at least 80% of genome covered at a minimum of 20X sequence depth per position. The procedures developed and optimized in this study here are valuable tools with potential for field application during PRRSV elimination programs.

Assessing the role of sow parity on PRRSv detection by RT-qPCR through weekly processing fluids monitoring in breeding herds

The use of processing fluids to monitor the breeding herd's porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) status has gained industry acceptance. However, little is known about PRRS virus RT-qPCR detection dynamics in processing fluids and factors that may contribute to maintain PRRS virus in the herd after an outbreak. This study aimed to describe weekly RT-qPCR processing fluid results in breeding herds after an outbreak and to evaluate the proportion of RT-qPCR positive results among parity groups. Processing tissues of 15 first parity (P1), 15 second parity (P2), and 15 third parity or higher (P3+) litters (parity groups) were collected weekly for between 19 and 46 weeks in nine breeding herds. Processing fluids were aggregated, and RT-qPCR tested by parity group weekly. Additionally, a subset of 743 processing fluid samples of litters that formed 50 parity groups, as previously described, were RT-qPCR tested individually at the litter level. The agreement between RT-qPCR results of processing fluid samples of parity groups (15 litters) and results based on individual litter testing was assessed using overall percent of agreement, Kappa statistic, and McNemar test. The association between RT-qPCR results and the parity group was evaluated using a generalized estimating equations model, after accounting for the effects of sampling week, breeding herd PRRS control strategy (i.e., open to replacements v/s closed) and herd. An autoregressive correlation structure was used to account for the repeated samplings within a herd in time. The overall agreement was 98 %, and Kappa statistic 0.955 (McNemar p = 1.0). Sensitivity of parity group processing fluid samples was estimated at 100 % (95 % CI 89-100 %), while specificity was estimated at 94 % (95 % CI 71-100 %). Although P1 aggregated litters had on average a higher proportion of RT-qPCR positive results from outbreak week 25 onwards, the proportion was not significantly different to the one observed for P2 and P3+ aggregated litters (p > 0.13). Additionally, herds that interrupted gilt entry had lower odds of PRRS RT-qPCR positivity than herds that continued entering gilts (OR = 0.35, 95 % CI 0.16-0.78). PRRS virus persistence in processing fluids was not affected by the sow parity effect in most of the breeding herds studied. No evidence of disagreement between RT-qPCR results of an aggregated sample of 15 litters and those of individual litters was observed. This level of litter aggregation testing strategy may be of particular use at the last stages of an elimination program under low PRRS virus prevalence.

A recombinant porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus type 2 field strain derived from two PRRSV-2-modified live virus vaccines

A porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) type 2 (PRRSV-2) isolate was obtained from lung samples collected from a 4.5-month-old pig at a wean-to-finish site in Indiana, USA, although no gross or microscopic lesions suggestive of PRRSV infection were observed in the lung tissue. Phylogenetic and molecular evolutionary analyses based on the obtained virus sequences indicated that PRRSV USA/IN105404/2021 was a natural recombinant isolate from Ingelvac PRRS® MLV and Prevacent® PRRS, which are PRRSV-2-modified live virus vaccines commercially available in the United States. This study is the first to report the detection of a PRRSV-2 recombinant strain consisting entirely of two modified live virus vaccine strains under field conditions. Based on clinical data and the absence of lung lesions, this PRRSV-2 recombinant strain was not virulent in swine, although its pathogenicity needs to be confirmed by clinical trials.

Infection dynamics, transmission, and evolution after an outbreak of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus

The present study was aimed at describing the infection dynamics, transmission, and evolution of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) after an outbreak in a 300-sow farrow-to-wean farm that was implementing a vaccination program. Three subsequent batches of piglets (9-11 litters/batch) were followed 1.5 (Batch 1), 8 (Batch 2), and 12 months after (Batch 3) from birth to 9 weeks of age. The RT-qPCR analysis showed that shortly after the outbreak (Batch 1), one third of sows were delivering infected piglets and the cumulative incidence reached 80% by 9 weeks of age. In contrast, in Batch 2, only 10% animals in total got infected in the same period. In Batch 3, 60% litters had born-infected animals and cumulative incidence rose to 78%. Higher viral genetic diversity was observed in Batch 1, with 4 viral clades circulating, of which 3 could be traced to vertical transmission events, suggesting the existence of founder viral variants. In Batch 3 though only one variant was found, distinguishable from those circulating previously, suggesting that a selection process had occurred. ELISA antibodies at 2 weeks of age were significantly higher in Batch 1 and 3 compared to Batch 2, while low levels of neutralizing antibodies were detected in either piglets or sows in all batches. In addition, some sows present in Batch 1 and 3 delivered infected piglets twice, and the offspring were devoid of neutralizing antibodies at 2 weeks of age. These results suggest that a high viral diversity was featured at the initial outbreak followed by a phase of limited circulation, but subsequently an escape variant emerged in the population causing a rebound of vertical transmission. The presence of unresponsive sows that had vertical transmission events could have contributed to the transmission. Moreover, the records of contacts between animals and the phylogenetic analyses allowed to trace back 87 and 47% of the transmission chains in Batch 1 and 3, respectively. Most animals transmitted the infection to 1-3 pen-mates, but super-spreaders were also identified. One animal that was born-viremic and persisted as viremic for the whole study period did not contribute to transmission.

An assessment of enhanced biosecurity interventions and their impact on porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus outbreaks within a managed group of farrow-to-wean farms, 2020-2021

Introduction

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) has been a challenge for the U.S. swine industry for over 30 years, costing producers more than $600 million annually through reproductive disease in sows and respiratory disease in growing pigs. In this study, the impact of enhanced biosecurity practices of site location, air filtration, and feed mitigation was assessed on farrow-to-wean sites managed by a large swine production management company in the Midwest United States. Those three factors varied in the system that otherwise had implemented a stringent biosecurity protocol on farrow-to-wean sites. The routine biosecurity followed commonplace activities for farrow-to-wean sites that included but were not limited to visitor registration, transport disinfection, shower-in/shower-out procedures, and decontamination and disinfection of delivered items and were audited.

Methods

Logistic regression was used to evaluate PRRSV infection by site based on the state where the site is located and air filtration use while controlling for other variables such as vaccine status, herd size, and pen vs. stall. A descriptive analysis was used to evaluate the impact of feed mitigation stratified by air filtration use.

Results

Sites that used feed mitigates as additives in the diets, air filtration of barns, and that were in less swine-dense areas appeared to experience fewer outbreaks associated with PRRSV infection. Specifically, 23.1% of farms that utilized a feed mitigation program experienced PRRSV outbreaks, in contrast to 100% of those that did not. Sites that did not use air filtration had 20 times greater odds of having a PRRSV outbreak. The strongest protective effect was found when both air filtration and feed mitigation were used. Locations outside of Minnesota and Iowa had 98.5-99% lesser odds of infection as well.

Discussion

Enhanced biosecurity practices may yield significant protective effects and should be considered for producers in swine-dense areas or when the site contains valuable genetics or many pigs.

A discrete-time survival model for porcine epidemic diarrhoea virus

Since the arrival of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) in the United States in 2013, elimination and control programmes have had partial success. The dynamics of its spread are hard to quantify, though previous work has shown that local transmission and the transfer of pigs within production systems are most associated with the spread of PEDV. Our work relies on the history of PEDV infections in a region of the southeastern United States. This infection data is complemented by farm-level features and extensive industry data on the movement of both pigs and vehicles. We implement a discrete-time survival model and evaluate different approaches to modelling the local-transmission and network effects. We find strong evidence in that the local-transmission and pig-movement effects are associated with the spread of PEDV, even while controlling for seasonality, farm-level features and the possible spread of disease by vehicles. Our fully Bayesian model permits full uncertainty quantification of these effects. Our farm-level out-of-sample predictions have a receiver-operating characteristic area under the curve (AUC) of 0.779 and a precision-recall AUC of 0.097. The quantification of these effects in a comprehensive model allows stakeholders to make more informed decisions about disease prevention efforts.

Adapting an Atmospheric Dispersion Model to Assess the Risk of Windborne Transmission of Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome Virus between Swine Farms

Modeling the windborne transmission of aerosolized pathogens is challenging. We adapted an atmospheric dispersion model (ADM) to simulate the windborne dispersion of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSv) between swine farms. This work focuses on determining ADM applicable parameter values for PRRSv through a literature and expert opinion-based approach. The parameters included epidemiological features of PRRSv, characteristics of the aerosolized particles, and survival of aerosolized virus in relation to key meteorological features. A case study was undertaken to perform a sensitivity analysis on key parameters. Farms experiencing ongoing PRRSv outbreaks were assigned as particle emitting sources. The wind data from the North American Mesoscale Forecast System was used to simulate dispersion. The risk was estimated semi-quantitatively based on the median daily deposition of particles and the distance to the closest emitting farm. Among the parameters tested, the ADM was most sensitive to the number of particles emitted, followed by the model runtime, and the release height was the least sensitive. Farms within 25 km from an emitting farm were at the highest risk; with 53.66% being within 10 km. An ADM-based risk estimation of windborne transmission of PRRSv may inform optimum time intervals for air sampling, plan preventive measures, and aid in ruling out the windborne dispersion in outbreak investigations.

Molecular Evolution of Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome Virus Field Strains from Two Swine Production Systems in the Midwestern United States from 2001 to 2020

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) poses an extensive economic threat to the United States swine industry. The high degree of PRRSV genetic and antigenic variability challenges existing vaccination programs. We evaluated the ORF5 sequence of 1,931 PRRSV-2 strains detected from >300 farms managed by two pork production systems in the midwestern United States from 2001 to 2020 to assess the genetic diversity and molecular characteristics of heterologous PRRSV-2 strains. Phylogenetic analysis was performed on ORF5 sequences and classified using the global PRRSV classification system. N-glycosylation and the global and local selection pressure in the putative GP5 encoded by ORF5 were estimated. The PRRSV-2 sequences were classified into lineage 5 (L5; n = 438[22.7%]) or lineage 1 (L1; n = 1,493[77.3%]). The L1 strains belonged to one of three subclades: L1A (n = 1,225[63.4%]), L1B (n = 69[3.6%]), and L1C/D (n = 199[10.3%]). 10 N-glycosylation sites were predicted, and positions N44 and N51 were detected in most GP5 sequences (n = 1,801[93.3%]). Clade-specific N-glycosylation sites were observed: 57th in L1A, 33rd in L1B, 30th and 34th in L1C/D, and 30th and 33rd in L5. We identified nine and 19 sites in GP5 under significant positive selection in L5 and L1, respectively. The 13th, 151st, and 200th positive selection sites were exclusive to L5. Heterogeneity of N-glycosylation and positive selection sites may contribute to varying the evolutionary processes of PRRSV-2 strains circulating in these swine production systems. L1A and L5 strains denoted excellence in adaptation to the current swine population by their extensive positive selection sites with higher site-specific selection pressure. IMPORTANCE Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) is known for its high genetic and antigenic variability. In this study, we evaluated the ORF5 sequences of PRRSV-2 strains circulating in two swine production systems in the midwestern United States from 2001 to 2020. All the field strains were classified into four major groups based on genetic relatedness, where one group is closely related to the Ingelvac PRRS MLV strain. Here, we systematically compared differences in the ORF5 polymorphisms, N-glycosylation sites, and local and global evolutionary dynamics between different groups. Sites 44 and 51 were common for N-glycosylation in most amino acid sequences (n = 1,801, 93.3%). We identified that the L5 sequences had more positive selection pressure compared to the L1 strains. Our findings will provide valuable insights into the evolutionary mechanisms of PRRSV-2 and these molecular changes may lead to suboptimal effectiveness of Ingelvac PRRS MLV vaccine.

A longitudinal study on PRRSV detection in swine herds with different demographics and PRRSV management strategies

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) has been one of the major health-related concerns in the swine production industry. Through its rapid transmission and mutation, the simultaneous circulation of multiple PRRSV strains can be a challenge in PRRSV diagnostic, control and surveillance. The objective of this longitudinal study was to describe the temporal detection of PRRSV in swine farms with different production types and PRRS management strategies. Tonsil scraping (n = 344) samples were collected from three breeding and two growing herds for approximately one year. In addition, processing fluids (n = 216) were obtained from piglet processing batches within the three breeding farms while pen-based oral fluids (n = 125) were collected in the two growing pig farms. Viral RNA extraction and reverse-transcription quantitative PCR (RT-qPCR) were conducted for all samples. The sample positivity threshold was set at quantification cycle (Cq) of ≤ 37. Statistical analyses were performed using generalized linear modelling and post hoc pairwise comparisons with Bonferroni adjustments using R statistical software. The results suggested a higher probability of detection in processing fluids compared to tonsil scraping specimens [odds ratio (OR) = 3.86; p = .096] in breeding farms whereas oral fluids were outperformed by tonsil scrapings (OR = 0.26; p < .01) in growing pig farms. The results described herein may lead to an improvement in PRRSV diagnostic and surveillance by selecting proper specimens.

Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome Surveillance in breeding Herds and Nurseries Using Tongue Tips from Dead Animals

The detection capacity of Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome virus (PRRSV) in tongues from dead animals in breeding herds (stillborns and piglets dying during the lactating period) and nursery farms (naturally dead animals) for PRRSV surveillance was evaluated. The samples were selected if pairs of serum and tongues were available from 2018 to 2020. Serum (pools of five) and exudate from tongues (one bag) were analyzed by PRRSV RT-PCR. The agreement between the serum sample procedure versus tongues exudate was assessed using a concordance test (Kappa statistic) at batch level. A total of 32 submissions, corresponding to 14 farms, had PRRSV diagnostic information for serum and tongues exudate. The overall agreement of batch classification as positive or negative, based on RT-PCR PRRSV results, between serum and tongue exudate of the 32 pairs was 76.9%. Cohen's Kappa was 0.55. The main discrepancy came from the presence of positive samples in tongues exudate and not in serum, suggesting that tongue exudate to monitor PRRSV seems to be more sensitive than serum. These results suggest that this sample procedure could be also used for PRRSV surveillance and monitoring.

Description of changes of key performance indicators and PRRSV shedding over time in a naïve breeding herd following a PRRS MLV exposure

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) is an important economic swine disease. The usage of PRRS-modified live vaccines (MLV) is the predominant breeding herd immunologic solution used in the United States to minimize the economic losses associated with wild-type PRRS infection. Most of the current information on the effects of contemporary PRRS MLV vaccination on breeding herd performance under field conditions comes from herds with previous PRRS virus (PRRSV) exposure. Hence, there is little information on key performance indicators (KPI) changes after the exposure to a PRRS MLV in PRRSV-naïve breeding herds. The main objective of this longitudinal observational study was to describe selected KPI changes in a naïve breeding herd after PRRS MLV exposure. The secondary objective was to describe the pattern of detection of PRRSV RNA by the quantitative reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction in processing fluid samples. There were transient increases for mummies during weeks 4-23 (+0.86%); increased pre-weaning mortality on weeks 3-5 (+3.76%); a decrease in live born on weeks 4-5 (-0.46) leading to a decreased pig weaned/litter on weeks 5-10 (-0.69) and increased repeated services on weeks 3-23 (+5.53%). Transient changes observed after PRRS MLV exposures did not move total pigs weaned to outside the control intervals. Starting on week 83 and for 53 consecutive weeks, there was no PRRSV detection in processing fluids, even though two whole-herd MLV exposures occurred within that period.

Integrating animal movements with phylogeography to model the spread of PRRSV in the USA

Viral sequence data coupled with phylodynamic models have become instrumental in investigating the outbreaks of human and animal diseases, and the incorporation of the hypothesized drivers of pathogen spread can enhance the interpretation from phylodynamic inference. Integrating animal movement data with phylodynamics allows us to quantify the extent to which the spatial diffusion of a pathogen is influenced by animal movements and contrast the relative importance of different types of movements in shaping pathogen distribution. We combine animal movement, spatial, and environmental data in a Bayesian phylodynamic framework to explain the spatial diffusion and evolutionary trends of a rapidly spreading sub-lineage (denoted L1A) of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) Type 2 from 2014 to 2017. PRRSV is the most important endemic pathogen affecting pigs in the USA, and this particular virulent sub-lineage emerged in 2014 and continues to be the dominant lineage in the US swine industry to date. Data included 984 open reading frame 5 (ORF5) PRRSV L1A sequences obtained from two production systems in a swine-dense production region (∼85,000 mi²) in the USA between 2014 and 2017. The study area was divided into sectors for which model covariates were summarized, and animal movement data between each sector were summarized by age class (wean: 3–4 weeks; feeder: 8–25 weeks; breeding: ≥21 weeks). We implemented a discrete-space phylogeographic generalized linear model using Bayesian evolutionary analysis by sampling trees (BEAST) to infer factors associated with variability in between-sector diffusion rates of PRRSV L1A. We found that between-sector spread was enhanced by the movement of feeder pigs, spatial adjacency of sectors, and farm density in the destination sector. The PRRSV L1A strain was introduced in the study area in early 2013, and genetic diversity and effective population size peaked in 2015 before fluctuating seasonally (peaking during the summer months). Our study underscores the importance of animal movements and shows, for the first time, that the movement of feeder pigs (8–25 weeks old) shaped the spatial patterns of PRRSV spread much more strongly than the movements of other age classes of pigs. The inclusion of movement data into phylodynamic models as done in this analysis may enhance our ability to identify crucial pathways of disease spread that can be targeted to mitigate the spatial spread of infectious human and animal pathogens.

PRRSV2 genetic diversity defined by RFLP patterns in the United States from 2007 to 2019

The genetic diversity of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) increases over time. In 1998, restriction-fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) pattern analysis was introduced to differentiate PRRSV wild-type strains from VR2332, a reference strain from which a commercial vaccine (Ingelvac PRRS MLV) was derived. We have characterized here the PRRSV genetic diversity within selected RFLP families over time and U.S. geographic space, using available ISU-VDL data from 2007 to 2019. The 40,454 ORF5 sequences recovered corresponded to 228 distinct RFLPs. Four RFLPs [2-5-2 (21.2%), 1-7-4 (15.6%), 1-4-4 (11.8%), and 1-8-4 (9.9%)] represented 58.5% of all ORF5 sequences and were used for cluster analysis. Over time, there was increased detection of RFLPs 2-5-2, 1-7-4, 1-3-4, 1-3-2, and 1-12-4; decreased detection of 1-4-2, 1-18-4, 1-18-2, and 1-2-2; and different detection trends for 1-8-4, 1-4-4, 1-26-1, 1-22-2, and 1-2-4. An over-time cluster analysis revealed a single cluster for RFLP 2-5-2, supporting that sequences within RFLP 2-5-2 are still relatively conserved. For 1-7-4, 1-4-4, and 1-8-4, there were multiple clusters. State-wise cluster analysis demonstrated 4 main clusters for RFLP 1-7-4 and 1-8-4, and 6 for RFLP 1-4-4. For the other RFLPs, there was a significant genetic difference within them, particularly between states. RFLP typing is limited in its ability to discriminate among different strains of PRRSV. Understanding the magnitude of genetic divergence within RFLPs helps develop PRRSV regional control programs, placement, herd immunization strategies, and design of appropriate animal movements across borders to minimize the risk of PRRSV transmission.

An index for multidimensional assessment of swine health

Pork accounts for almost one-third of the meat consumed worldwide. Infectious diseases have a marked impact on pig production. Epidemiological indicators are considered the most useful criteria in decision-making; however, a health status assessment remains a challenge at the national and regional levels. This study proposes a health index including herd-losses, morbidity, fatality, and type of diseases, to rate the health situation in a region or country; it contributes to assessing the effectiveness of control, damage manifestation, and trends. It is a multidimensional index with a structure of triads and simple quantitative, semi-quantitative, and qualitative expressions that use flexible and dynamics limits. With it, we analyzed twenty-one countries in 2005-2018, focusing on African swine fever, classical swine fever, foot-mouth-disease, and porcine respiratory and reproductive syndrome, diseases that caused 72% of the morbidity. Our multidimensional approach estimates farm, local, and regional impact from infectious agents and outbreaks, and apprises trends aiming to be useful to control measures, strategic actions, and animal health policies.

Spatial relative risk and factors associated with porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome outbreaks in United States breeding herds

Details of incident cases of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) in United States breeding herds were obtained from the Morrison's Swine Health Monitoring Project. Herds were classified as cases if they reported an outbreak in a given season of the year and non-cases if they reported it in a season other than the case season or if they did not report a PRRS outbreak in any season. The geographic distribution of cases and non-cases was compared in each season of the year. The density of farms that had a PRRS outbreak during summer was higher in Southern Minnesota and Northwest-central Iowa compared to the density of the underlying population of non-case farms. This does not mean that PRRS outbreaks are more frequent during summer in absolute terms, but that there was a geographical clustering of herds breaking during summer in this area. Similar findings were observed in autumn. In addition, the density of farms reporting spring outbreaks was higher in the Southeast of the United States compared to that of the underlying population of non-case farms. A similar geographical clustering of PRRS outbreaks was observed during winter in the Southeast of the United States. Multivariable analyses, adjusting for the effect of known confounders, showed that the incidence rate of PRRS was significantly lower during winter and autumn during the porcine epidemic diarrhea (PED) epidemic years (2013-2014), compared to PRRS incidence rates observed during the winter and autumn of PED pre-epidemic years (2009-2012). After 2014, an increase in the incidence rate of PRRS was observed during winter and spring but not during autumn or summer. Pig dense areas were associated with a higher incidence rate throughout the year. However, this association tended to be stronger during the summer. Additionally, herds with ≥2500 sows had an increased incidence rate during all seasons except spring compared to those with <2500 sows. PRRS incidence was lower in year-round air-filtered herds compared to non-filtered herds throughout the year. We showed that not only the spatial risk of PRRS varies regionally according to the season of the year, but also that the effect of swine density, herd size and air filtering on PRRS incidence may also vary according to the season of the year. Further studies should investigate regional and seasonal drivers of disease. Breeding herds should maintain high biosecurity standards throughout the year.

Postweaning mortality in commercial swine production. I: review of non-infectious contributing factors

Postweaning mortality is a complex causal matrix involving animal, environment, and infectious etiologic factors. Despite advances in swine productivity such as total pigs born, growth rate, feed intake, and efficiency, there have been modest to no improvements in postweaning mortality rates over the last several years. Industry averages for postweaning mortality range from four to eight percent for each the nursery, grow-finish, or wean-finish stages. Retrospective mortality causal analyses of individual databases have been performed. However, little information derived from meta-analysis, systematic review, or comprehensive literature reviews are available. In order to develop and evaluate strategies to comprehensively manage and reduce postweaning mortality, addressing the complexity and range of impact that factors have on mortality is necessary to identify and prioritize such contributing factors. Our objective is to describe the current state of knowledge regarding non-infectious causes of postweaning mortality, focusing on estimates of frequency and magnitude of effect where available. Postweaning mortality can be generalized into non-infectious and infectious causes, with non-infectious factors further classified into anatomic abnormalities, toxicity, animal factors, facility factors, nutritional inadequacies, season, and management factors. Important non-infectious factors that have been identified through review of literature include birth weight, pre-weaning management, weaning age and weight, and season. Additionally, reasons for mortality with a low incidence but a high magnitude include abdominal organ torsion/volvulus, sodium ion or ionophore toxicosis, or dietary imbalance due to feed formulation or manufacture error. Many interactive effects are present between and among infectious and non-infectious factors, but an important trend is the impact that non-infectious factors have on the incidence, severity, and resolution of infectious disease. Strategies to reduce postweaning mortality must consider the dynamic, complex state that forms the causal web. Control of postweaning mortality through understanding of the complexity, evaluation of mortality reduction strategies through rigorous scientific evaluation, and implementation remains an area of opportunity for continued growth and development in the global swine industry.

Postweaning mortality in commercial swine production II: review of infectious contributing factors

Postweaning mortality is extremely complex with a multitude of noninfectious and infectious contributing factors. In the current review, our objective is to describe the current state of knowledge regarding infectious causes of postweaning mortality, focusing on estimates of frequency and magnitude of effect where available. While infectious mortality is often categorized by physiologic body system affected, we believe the complex multifactorial nature is better understood by an alternative stratification dependent on intervention type. This category method subjectively combines disease pathogenesis knowledge, epidemiology, and economic consequences. These intervention categories included depopulation of affected cohorts of animals, elimination protocols using knowledge of immunity and epidemiology, or less aggressive interventions. The most aggressive approach to control infectious etiologies is through herd depopulation and repopulation. Historically, these protocols were successful for Actinobacillus pleuropneumoniae and swine dysentery among others. Additionally, this aggressive measure likely would be used to minimize disease spread if either a foreign animal disease was introduced or pseudorabies virus was reintroduced into domestic swine populations. Elimination practices have been successful for Mycoplasma hyopneumoniae, porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus, coronaviruses, including transmissible gastroenteritis virus, porcine epidemic diarrhea virus, and porcine deltacoronavirus, swine influenza virus, nondysentery Brachyspira spp., and others. Porcine circovirus type 2 can have a significant impact on morbidity and mortality; however, it is often adequately controlled through immunization. Many other infectious etiologies present in swine production have not elicited these aggressive control measures. This may be because less aggressive control measures, such as vaccination, management, and therapeutics, are effective, their impact on mortality or productivity is not great enough to warrant, or there is inadequate understanding to employ control procedures efficaciously and efficiently. Since there are many infectious agents and noninfectious contributors, emphasis should continue to be placed on those infectious agents with the greatest impact to minimize postweaning mortality.

Prediction of seasonal patterns of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus RNA detection in the U.S. swine industry

We developed a model to predict the cyclic pattern of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) RNA detection by reverse-transcription real-time PCR (RT-rtPCR) from 4 major swine-centric veterinary diagnostic laboratories (VDLs) in the United States and to use historical data to forecast the upcoming year's weekly percentage of positive submissions and issue outbreak signals when the pattern of detection was not as expected. Standardized submission data and test results were used. Historical data (2015-2017) composed of the weekly percentage of PCR-positive submissions were used to fit a cyclic robust regression model. The findings were used to forecast the expected weekly percentage of PCR-positive submissions, with a 95% confidence interval (CI), for 2018. During 2018, the proportion of PRRSV-positive submissions crossed 95% CI boundaries at week 2, 14-25, and 48. The relatively higher detection on week 2 and 48 were mostly from submissions containing samples from wean-to-market pigs, and for week 14-25 originated mostly from samples from adult/sow farms. There was a recurring yearly pattern of detection, wherein an increased proportion of PRRSV RNA detection in submissions originating from wean-to-finish farms was followed by increased detection in samples from adult/sow farms. Results from the model described herein confirm the seasonal cyclic pattern of PRRSV detection using test results consolidated from 4 VDLs. Wave crests occurred consistently during winter, and wave troughs occurred consistently during the summer months. Our model was able to correctly identify statistically significant outbreak signals in PRRSV RNA detection at 3 instances during 2018.

Implementation of PRRSV status classification system in swine breeding herds from a large integrated group in Spain

BACKGROUND

Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome (PRRS) is an endemic swine disease causing significant productive and economic losses. Knowledge of PRRS epidemiology is crucial to develop control strategies against this disease. In that regard, classifying farms according to PRRS virus (PRRSV) shedding and exposure, and understanding key drivers of change in status over time, provides great applied knowledge for developing disease control programs. In most European countries, PRRSV monitoring is performed most frequently at the individual farm level although criteria selected for monitoring varies among different regions and farms. The aim of this study was to implement a systematic monitoring program for PRRSV in Spanish sow farms. Breeding herds were classified according to a standardized PRRSV infection status using sampling programs and terminology currently adopted in the United States (US), which allowed an evaluation of PRRSV epidemiology in a large integrated Spanish group during a one-year study period (February 2017-March 2018).

RESULTS

Fifteen farms achieved a stable PRRSV status after the first 4 consecutive samplings and 20 farms were classified as unstable. One of the farms maintained a stable status throughout the duration of the whole monitoring period.Among the 20 farms classified as unstable at the beginning of the monitoring protocol, 9 farms (45%) never reached the stable status and 11 farms (55%) reached stable status afterwards during the monitoring study period.From PRRSV PCR positive pools, there were 47 different PRRSV nucleotide sequences from 24 different farms. More than one PRRSV sequence was obtained from 15 farms. In the farms with more than one sequence detected, we observed recirculation of the same PRRSV field strain in 7 farms and introduction of a different PRRSV strain in 5 farms and both events in 3 farms.

CONCLUSIONS

Systematic monitoring for PRRSV in breeding herds established a basis of knowledge of PRRSV epidemiology at the farm level and provided key data to classify farms according to PRRSV exposure and shedding status. These data allow further evaluation of the impact of the PRRSV farm status on production and economic performance in breeding herds and additional investigation of factors related to PRRSV epidemiology.

Rapid, Unbiased PRRSV Strain Detection Using MinION Direct RNA Sequencing and Bioinformatics Tools

Prompt detection and effective control of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) during outbreaks is important given its immense adverse impact on the swine industry. However, the diagnostic process can be challenging due to the high genetic diversity and high mutation rate of PRRSV. A diagnostic method that can provide more detailed genetic information about pathogens is urgently needed. In this study, we evaluated the ability of Oxford Nanopore MinION direct RNA sequencing to generate a PRRSV whole genome sequence and detect and discriminate virus at the strain-level. A nearly full length PRRSV genome was successfully generated from raw sequence reads, achieving an accuracy of 96% after consensus genome generation. Direct RNA sequencing reliably detected the PRRSV strain present with an accuracy of 99.9% using as few as 5 raw sequencing reads and successfully differentiated multiple co-infecting strains present in a sample. In addition, PRRSV strain information was obtained from clinical samples containing 10⁴ to 10⁶ viral copies or more within 6 hours of sequencing. Overall, direct viral RNA sequencing followed by bioinformatic analysis proves to be a promising approach for identification of the viral strain or strains involved in clinical infections, allowing for more precise prevention and control strategies during PRRSV outbreaks.

Temporal Dynamics of Co-circulating Lineages of Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome Virus

Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome Virus (PRRSV) is the most important endemic pathogen in the U.S. swine industry. Despite control efforts involving improved biosecurity and different vaccination protocols, the virus continues to circulate and evolve. One of the foremost challenges in its control is high levels of genetic and antigenic diversity. Here, we quantify the co-circulation, emergence and sequential turnover of multiple PRRSV lineages in a single swine-producing region in the United States over a span of 9 years (2009-2017). By classifying over 4,000 PRRSV sequences (open-reading frame 5) into phylogenetic lineages and sub-lineages, we document the ongoing diversification and temporal dynamics of the PRRSV population, including the rapid emergence of a novel sub-lineage that appeared to be absent globally pre-2008. In addition, lineage 9 was the most prevalent lineage from 2009 to 2010, but its occurrence fell to 0.5% of all sequences identified per year after 2014, coinciding with the emergence or re-emergence of lineage 1 as the dominant lineage. The sequential dominance of different lineages, as well as three different sub-lineages within lineage 1, is consistent with the immune-mediated selection hypothesis for the sequential turnover in the dominant lineage. As host populations build immunity through natural infection or vaccination toward the most common variant, this dominant (sub-) lineage may be replaced by an emerging variant to which the population is more susceptible. An analysis of patterns of non- synonymous and synonymous mutations revealed evidence of positive selection on immunologically important regions of the genome, further supporting the potential that immune-mediated selection shapes the evolutionary and epidemiological dynamics for this virus. This has important implications for patterns of emergence and re-emergence of genetic variants of PRRSV that have negative impacts on the swine industry. Constant surveillance on PRRSV occurrence is crucial to a better understanding of the epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of co-circulating viral lineages. Further studies utilizing whole genome sequencing and exploring the extent of cross-immunity between heterologous PRRS viruses could shed further light on PRRSV immunological response and aid in developing strategies that might be able to diminish disease impact.

Individual or Common Good? Voluntary Data Sharing to Inform Disease Surveillance Systems in Food Animals

Livestock producers have traditionally been reluctant to share information related to their business, including data on health status of their animals, which, sometimes, has impaired the ability to implement surveillance programs. However, during the last decade, swine producers in the United States (US) and other countries have voluntarily begun to share data for the control and elimination of specific infectious diseases, such as the porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSv). Those surveillance programs have played a pivotal role in bringing producers and veterinarians together for the benefit of the industry. Examples of situations in which producers have decided to voluntarily share data for extended periods of time to support applied research and, ultimately, disease control in the absence of a regulatory framework have rarely been documented in the peer-reviewed literature. Here, we provide evidence of a national program for voluntary sharing of disease status data that has helped the implementation of surveillance activities that, ultimately, allowed the generation of critically important scientific information to better support disease control activities. Altogether, this effort has supported, and is supporting, the design and implementation of prevention and control approaches for the most economically devastating swine disease affecting the US. The program, which has been voluntarily sustained and supported over an extended period of time by the swine industry in the absence of any regulatory framework and that includes data on approximately 50% of the sow population in the US, represents a unique example of a livestock industry self-organized surveillance program to generate scientific-driven solutions for emerging swine health issues in North America.

Assessment of immediate production impact following attenuated PRRS type 2 virus vaccination in swine breeding herds

BACKGROUND

To mitigate production impact of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) virus outbreaks, it has been common to preventively vaccinate swine breeding herds using PRRS modified live virus (MLV) vaccine. However, attenuated PRRS virus (PRRSv) may result negative impact on farm productivity. The objective of this study was to measure the immediate impact of PRRS type 2 MLV vaccine on breeding herd performance under field conditions. Eight PRRS-stable farms routinely mass vaccinating females with commercial PRRS MLV vaccines were enrolled on study. Vaccination dates were collected and weekly changes in abortions, neonatal losses, pre-weaning mortality, pigs weaned per sow, and wean-to-first-service interval were assessed for up to 6 weeks after each vaccination. A 6-week period prior to each vaccination was established as baseline. Statistical process control (SPC) analysis was conducted to detect significant productivity decreases after MLV interventions, on each farm, and a mixed regression model was used, at the aggregated data level, to assess the productivity change 6 weeks after PRRS MLV vaccinations, compared to baseline.

RESULTS

Out of 65 herd-MLV vaccinations, SPC analysis detected increase on abortions 4 times (6.1%), on neonatal losses 7 times (10.7%), on pre-weaning mortality 2 times (3%), on wean-to-first-service interval 2 times (3%), and no change in total pigs weaned. On aggregated data analysis, there was no significant change in abortion rate, neonatal losses, number of pigs weaned per sow, and wean-to-first-service interval. However, there was an increase of 0.26% of pre-weaning mortality 2 weeks after vaccination compared to the baseline.

CONCLUSIONS

Under study conditions, individual PRRS-stable sow farms had experienced transient, and numerically small changes in productivity following PRRS type 2 MLV vaccination. There was a small increase of pre-weaning mortality 2 weeks after vaccination, but no evidence of significant production impact at aggregated data analysis for abortion rate, neonatal losses, pigs weaned per sow and wean-to-first-service interval.

Time-series analysis for porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome in the United States

Industry-driven voluntary disease control programs for swine diseases emerged in North America in the early 2000’s, and, since then, those programs have been used for monitoring diseases of economic importance to swine producers. One example of such initiatives is Dr. Morrison’s Swine Health Monitoring Project, a nation-wide monitoring program for swine diseases including the porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS). PRRS has been extensively reported as a seasonal disease in the U.S., with predictable peaks that start in fall and are extended through the winter season. However, formal time series analysis stratified by geographic region has never been conducted for this important disease across the U.S. The main objective of this study was to use approximately seven years of PRRS incidence data in breeding swine herds to conduct time-series analysis in order to describe the temporal patterns of PRRS outbreaks at the farm level for five major swine-producing states across the U.S. including the states of Minnesota, Iowa, North Carolina, Nebraska and Illinois. Data was aggregated retrospectively at the week level for the number of herds containing animals actively shedding PRRS virus. Basic descriptive statistics were conducted followed by autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modelling, conducted separately for each of the above-mentioned states. Results showed that there was a difference in the nature of PRRS seasonality among states. Of note, when comparing states, the typical seasonal pattern previously described for PRRS could only be detected for farms located in the states of Minnesota, North Carolina and Nebraska. For the other two states, seasonal peaks every six months were detected within a year. In conclusion, we showed that epidemic patterns are not homogeneous across the U.S, with major peaks of disease occurring through the year. These findings highlight the importance of coordinating alternative control strategies in different regions considering the prevailing epidemiological patterns.

Surveillance of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus in the United States using risk mapping and species distribution modeling

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSv) outbreaks cause significant financial losses to the U.S. swine industry, where the pathogen is endemic. Seasonal increases in the number of outbreaks are typically observed using PRRSv epidemic curves. However, the nature and extent to which demographic and environmental factors influence the risk for PRRSv outbreaks in the country remains unclear. The objective of this study was to develop risk maps for PRRSv outbreaks across the United States (U.S.) and compare ecological dynamics of the disease in five of the most important swine production regions of the country. This study integrates spatial information regarding PRRSv surveillance with relevant demographic and environmental factors collected between 2009 and 2016. We used presence-only Maximum Entropy (Maxent), a species distribution modeling approach, to model the spatial risk of PRRSv in swine populations. Data fitted the selected model relatively well when the modeling approach was conducted by region (training and testing AUCs<0.75). All of the Maxent models selected identified high-risk areas, with probabilities greater than 0.5. The relative contribution of pig density to PRRSv risk was highest in pig-densely populated areas (Minnesota, Iowa and North Carolina), whereas climate and land cover were important in areas with relatively low pig densities (Illinois, Indiana, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Colorado, and Texas). Although many previous studies associated the risk of PRRSv with high pig density and climatic factors, the study here quantifies, for the first time in the peer-reviewed literature, the spatial variation and relative contribution of these factors across different swine production regions in the U.S. The results will help in the design and implement of early detection, prevention, and control strategies for one of the most devastating diseases affecting the swine industry in the U.S.

Translating Big Data into Smart Data for Veterinary Epidemiology

The increasing availability and complexity of data has led to new opportunities and challenges in veterinary epidemiology around how to translate abundant, diverse, and rapidly growing “big” data into meaningful insights for animal health. Big data analytics are used to understand health risks and minimize the impact of adverse animal health issues through identifying high-risk populations, combining data or processes acting at multiple scales through epidemiological modeling approaches, and harnessing high velocity data to monitor animal health trends and detect emerging health threats. The advent of big data requires the incorporation of new skills into veterinary epidemiology training, including, for example, machine learning and coding, to prepare a new generation of scientists and practitioners to engage with big data. Establishing pipelines to analyze big data in near real-time is the next step for progressing from simply having “big data” to create “smart data,” with the objective of improving understanding of health risks, effectiveness of management and policy decisions, and ultimately preventing or at least minimizing the impact of adverse animal health issues.

Assessment of listing and categorisation of animal diseases within the framework of the Animal Health Law (Regulation (EU) No 2016/429): porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS)

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) has been assessed according to the criteria of the Animal Health Law (AHL), in particular criteria of Article 7 on disease profile and impacts, Article 5 on the eligibility of PRRS to be listed, Article 9 for the categorisation of PRRS according to disease prevention and control rules as in Annex IV and Article 8 on the list of animal species related to PRRS. The assessment has been performed following a methodology composed of information collection and compilation, expert judgement on each criterion at individual and, if no consensus was reached before, also at collective level. The output is composed of the categorical answer, and for the questions where no consensus was reached, the different supporting views are reported. Details on the methodology used for this assessment are explained in a separate opinion. According to the assessment performed, PRRS can be considered eligible to be listed for Union intervention as laid down in Article 5(3) of the AHL. The disease would comply with the criteria as in Sections 4 and 5 of Annex IV of the AHL, for the application of the disease prevention and control rules referred to in points (d) and (e) of Article 9(1). The animal species to be listed for PRRS according to Article 8(3) criteria are domestic pigs and wild boar.

Novel approaches for Spatial and Molecular Surveillance of Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome Virus (PRRSv) in the United States

The US swine industry has been impaired over the last 25 years by the far-reaching financial losses caused by the porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS). Here, we explored the relations between the spatial risk of PRRS outbreaks and its phylodynamic history in the U.S during 1998–2016 using ORF5 sequences collected from swine farms in the Midwest region. We used maximum entropy and Bayesian phylodynamic models to generate risk maps for PRRS outbreaks and reconstructed the evolutionary history of three selected phylogenetic clades (A, B and C). High-risk areas for PRRS were best-predicted by pig density and climate seasonality and included Minnesota, Iowa and South Dakota. Phylodynamic models demonstrated that the geographical spread of the three clades followed a heterogeneous spatial diffusion process. Furthermore, PRRS viruses were characterized by typical seasonality in their population size. However, endemic strains were characterized by a substantially slower population growth and evolutionary rates, as well as smaller spatial dispersal rates when compared to emerging strains. We demonstrated the prospects of combining inferences derived from two unique analytical methods to inform decisions related to risk-based interventions of an important pathogen affecting one of the largest food animal industries in the world.

A Review of Quantitative Tools Used to Assess the Epidemiology of Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome in U.S. Swine Farms Using Dr. Morrison's Swine Health Monitoring Program Data

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) causes far-reaching financial losses to infected countries and regions, including the U.S. The Dr. Morrison's Swine Health Monitoring Program (MSHMP) is a voluntary initiative in which producers and veterinarians share sow farm PRRS status weekly to contribute to the understanding, in quantitative terms, of PRRS epidemiological dynamics and, ultimately, to support its control in the U.S. Here, we offer a review of a variety of analytic tools that were applied to MSHMP data to assess disease dynamics in quantitative terms to support the decision-making process for veterinarians and producers. Use of those methods has helped the U.S. swine industry to quantify the cyclical patterns of PRRS, to describe the impact that emerging pathogens has had on that pattern, to identify the nature and extent at which environmental factors (e.g., precipitation or land cover) influence PRRS risk, to identify PRRS virus emerging strains, and to assess the influence that voluntary reporting has on disease control. Results from the numerous studies reviewed here provide important insights into PRRS epidemiology that help to create the foundations for a near real-time prediction of disease risk, and, ultimately, will contribute to support the prevention and control of, arguably, one of the most devastating diseases affecting the North American swine industry. The review also demonstrates how different approaches to analyze and visualize the data may help to add value to the routine collection of surveillance data and support infectious animal disease control.

Land altitude, slope, and coverage as risk factors for Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome (PRRS) outbreaks in the United States

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) is, arguably, the most impactful disease on the North American swine industry. The Swine Health Monitoring Project (SHMP) is a national volunteer initiative aimed at monitoring incidence and, ultimately, supporting swine disease control, including PRRS. Data collected through the SHMP currently represents approximately 42% of the sow population of the United States. The objective of the study here was to investigate the association between geographical factors (including land elevation, and land coverage) and PRRS incidence as recorded in the SHMP. Weekly PRRS status data from sites participating in the SHMP from 2009 to 2016 (n = 706) was assessed. Number of PRRS outbreaks, years of participation in the SHMP, and site location were collected from the SHMP database. Environmental features hypothesized to influence PRRS risk included land coverage (cultivated areas, shrubs and trees), land altitude (in meters above sea level) and land slope (in degrees compared to surrounding areas). Other risk factors considered included region, production system to which the site belonged, herd size, and swine density in the area in which the site was located. Land-related variables and pig density were captured in raster format from a number of sources and extracted to points (farm locations). A mixed-effects Poisson regression model was built; and dependence among sites that belonged to a given production system was accounted for using a random effect at the system level. The annual mean and median number of outbreaks per farm was 1.38 (SD: 1.6), and 1 (IQR: 2.0), respectively. The maximum annual number of outbreaks per farm was 9, and approximately 40% of the farms did not report any outbreak. Results from the final multivariable model suggested that increments of swine density and herd size increased the risk for PRRS outbreaks (P < 0.01). Even though altitude (meters above sea level) was not significant in the final model, farms located in terrains with a slope of 9% or higher had lower rates of PRRS outbreaks compared to farms located in terrains with slopes lower than 2% (P < 0.01). Finally, being located in an area of shrubs/ herbaceous cover and trees lowered the incidence rate of PRRS outbreaks compared to being located in cultivated/ managed areas (P < 0.05). In conclusion, highly inclined terrains were associated with fewer PRRS outbreaks in US sow farms, as was the presence of shrubs and trees when compared to cultivated/ managed areas. Influence of terrain characteristics on spread of airborne diseases, such as PRRS, may help to predicting disease risk, and effective planning of measures intended to mitigate and prevent risk of infection.

Estimation of Time-Dependent Reproduction Numbers for Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome across Different Regions and Production Systems of the US

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) is, arguably, the most impactful disease for the North American swine industry, due to its known considerable economic losses. The Swine Health Monitoring Project (SHMP) monitors and reports weekly new PRRS cases in 766 sow herds across the US. The time-dependent reproduction number (TD-R) is a measure of a pathogen's transmissibility. It may serve to capture and report PRRS virus (PRRSV) spread at the regional and system levels. The primary objective of the study here was to estimate the TD-R values for PRRSV using regional and system-level PRRS data, and to contrast it with commonly used metrics of disease, such as incidence estimates and space-time clusters. The second objective was to test whether the estimated TD-Rs were homogenous across four US regions. Retrospective monthly incidence data (2009-2016) were available from the SHMP. The dataset was divided into four regions based on location of participants, and demographic and environmental features, namely, South East (North Carolina), Upper Midwest East (UME, Minnesota/Iowa), Upper Midwest West (Nebraska/South Dakota), and South (Oklahoma panhandle). Generation time distributions were fit to incidence data for each region, and used to calculate the TD-Rs. The Kruskal-Wallis test was used to determine whether the median TD-Rs differed across the four areas. Furthermore, we used a space-time permutation model to assess spatial-temporal patterns for the four regions. Results showed TD-Rs were right skewed with median values close to "1" across all regions, confirming that PRRS has an overall endemic nature. Variation in the TD-R patterns was noted across regions and production systems. Statistically significant periods of PRRSV spread (TD-R > 1) were identified for all regions except UME. A minimum of three space-time clusters were detected for all regions considering the time period examined herein; and their overlap with "spreader events" identified by the TD-R method varied according to region. TD-Rs may help to measure PRRS spread to understand, in quantitative terms, disease spread, and, ultimately, support the design, implementation, and monitoring of interventions aimed at mitigating the impact of PRRSV spread in the US.

Review on the transmission porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus between pigs and farms and impact on vaccination

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) is considered to be one of the most costly diseases affecting intensive pig production worldwide. Control of PRRS is a complex issue and involves a combination of measures including monitoring, diagnosis, biosecurity, herd management, and immunization. In spite of the numerous studies dealing with PRRS virus epidemiology, transmission of the infection is still not fully understood. The present article reviews the current knowledge on PRRSV transmission between and within farm, and the impact of vaccination on virus transmission.

Novel analytic tools for the study of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSv) in endemic settings: lessons learned in the U.S

Since its emergence in the late 1980's, the porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSv) has posed a significant challenge to the pig industry worldwide. Since then, a number of epidemiological tools have been created to support control and eventual elimination of the disease at the farm and regional levels. Still, many aspects of the disease dynamics are yet-to-be elucidated, such as what are the economically optimal control strategies at the farm and regional level, what is the role that the voluntary regional control programs may play, how to optimize the use of molecular tools for surveillance and monitoring in infected settings, what is the full impact of the disease in a farm, or what is the relative contribution of alternative transmission routes on the occurrence of PRRSv outbreaks. Here, we summarize a number of projects demonstrating the use of novel analytical tools in the assessment of PRRSv epidemiology in the United States. Results presented demonstrate how quantitative analysis of routinely collected data may help in understanding regional epidemiology of PRRSv and to quantify its full impact, and how the integration of phylodynamic methods as a standard tool for molecular surveillance of PRRSv might help to inform control and prevention strategies in high-risk epidemiological situations. Ultimately, these tools will help to support PRRSv control at farm and regional levels in endemically infected settings.

Production impact & time to stability in sow herds infected with porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV)

PEDV was first detected in United States in May, 2013. The virus spread through the swine industry and was reported in 30 US states by June, 2014 (Morrison and Goede, 2014). There are limited data describing the impact on production in sow farms. Veterinarians attempt to control the virus in sow herds with a program that stimulates herd immunity. There are no data on how long it takes with this control program to achieve a stable state of consistently produce weaned pigs that are not infected with the virus. This study involved participants and data from an existing program called the Swine Health Monitoring Project. Veterinarians were invited to share production data from 429 herds infected with PEDV. These data, in conjunction with diagnostic reports, were used to estimate the time required for the herd to produce PEDV PCR negative pigs and the production loss. Of the 429 infected herds that achieved the stable state of weaning PEDV PCR negative pigs, the median time was 28 weeks, ranging from 7 to 64 weeks. A median of 2.7 piglets/inventoried sow were not weaned and the average time required to recover to baseline production was 10 weeks in 183 herds. Herd infected in quarters 3 or 4 of the year had approximately twice the negative impact. These data are valuable for veterinarians in advising clients on the anticipated impact and time to re-achieve a stable state with regards to PEDV.

Spatial analysis and temporal trends of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome in Denmark from 2007 to 2010 based on laboratory submission data

BACKGROUND

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) has been a cause for great concern to the Danish pig industry since it was first diagnosed in 1992. The causative agent of PRRS is an RNA virus which is divided into different genotypes. The clinical signs, as well as its morbidity and mortality, is highly variable between herds and regions. Two different genotypes of PRRS virus (PRRSV) are found in Denmark: type 1 and type 2. Approximately 40% of Danish swine herds are seropositive for one or both PRRSV types. The objective of this study was to describe the temporal trend and spatial distribution of PRRSV in Danish swine herds from 2007 to 2010, based on type-specific serological tests from the PRRS surveillance and control program in Denmark using the results stored in the information management system at the National Veterinary Institute, Technical University of Denmark (DTU Vet).

RESULTS

The average monthly seroprevalence of PRRSV type 1 was 9% (minimum of 5%; maximum of 13%) in breeding herds, and 20% (minimum of 14%; maximum of 26%) in production herds; PRRSV type 2 had an average seroprevalence of 3% (minimum of 1%; maximum of 9%) in breeding herds and of 9% (minimum of 5%; maximum of 13%) within production herds. The seroconversion rate followed a similar and consistent pattern, being higher for type 1 than for type 2 for both PRRSV types. Regarding the spatiotemporal results, the relative risk distribution maps changed over time as a consequence of the changes in PRRSV seroprevalence, suggesting a general decline in the extent of areas with higher relative risk for both type 1 and 2. Local spatial analysis results demonstrated the existence of statistically significant clusters in areas where the relative risk was higher for both herds.

CONCLUSIONS

PRRSV type 1 seroprevalence was constantly higher than for PRRSV type 2 in both herd types. Significant spatial clusters were consistently found in Denmark, suggesting that PRRSV is endemic in these areas. Furthermore, relative risk distribution maps revealed different patterns over time as a consequence of the changes in seroprevalence.