Early assessment of China's 2015 tobacco tax increase

Trends of cause-specific cardiovascular disease mortality in China, 2009-2019: a nationwide longitudinal study

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the top cause of death in China. We aimed to identify trends in cause-specific CVD mortality in a rapidly developing country, thereby providing evidence for CVD prophylaxis.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Using raw data from the Chinese National Mortality Surveillance (CNMS) system, we assessed the mortalities of all CVD and cause-specific CVD during 2009-2019. Temporal trends of crude mortality rates (CMRs) and age-standardized mortality (ASMRs) of CVD were evaluated using joinpoint regression models. Age-sex-specific CVD mortality rates were predicted by using age-period-cohort Poisson regression model.

RESULTS

A total of 10,608,402 CVD death occurred during 2009-2019, accounting for 49.8% of all-cause of death in China. The three major CVD types [cerebrovascular disease, ischemic heart disease (IHD) and hypertensive disease (HD)] accounted for 94.6% of total CVD deaths. The CMR of all CVD increased [the annual average percentage change (AAPC) = 3.4%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.6% to 4.1%] while the ASMR decreased (AAPC = -2.0%, 95% CI -3.5% to -0.6%). Cerebrovascular disease is predicted to be the leading cause of CVD death in men and IHD will be the top cause of CVD death in women over the period 2025-2029.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the ASMR of total CVD decreased, CVD remained the leading cause of death in China. Cerebrovascular disease, IHD and HD were the major three leading causes of CVD-related death. Inflammatory heart disease-associated death increased in the young population. Attention should be paid to premature deaths associated with cerebrovascular disease and rheumatic heart disease among rural residents.

Burden of laryngeal cancer in China caused by smoking from 1990 to 2021 and predictions for 2035: An age-period-cohort analysis of global burden of disease study 2021

INTRODUCTION

Smoking is a major risk factor for laryngeal cancer (LC). Understanding the impact of smoking on the changing disease burden of LC is crucial for LC prevention in China and provides a scientific basis for formulating targeted LC prevention and control strategies, contributing to the achievement of the 'Healthy China 2030' goals.

METHODS

Data on LC attributable to smoking in China, stratified by sex, age, and year, were obtained from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study to conduct a secondary data analysis. Joinpoint regression was used to analyze trends in the burden of LC attributable to smoking in China from 1990 to 2021. Age-period-cohort (APC) analysis was employed to compare and analyze trends in the age, period, and cohort effects on the disease burden. Finally, Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) analysis was used to predict trends in LC mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from 2022 to 2035.

RESULTS

From 1990 to 2021, the overall burden of LC attributable to smoking in China increased. The number of deaths in males rose from 9128 to 14219, and in females from 790 to 1054. DALYs increased by 39.85% in males and 22.21% in females. Despite the rise in absolute burden, age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) and age-standardized DALY rates (ASDR) declined, with reductions exceeding 50% in females. Joinpoint regression analysis revealed a decline-stabilization-decline trend in age-standardized rates among males, while females exhibited a continuous decline. According to the APC model, the age effect on disease burden increased with age, while period and cohort risk ratios generally declined. Net drift analysis showed a decline in mortality and DALY rates attributable to smoking, more pronounced in females than males, with local drift values <0 for both sexes. Predictions indicate that by 2035, male LC deaths will reach 17205, and female deaths 1373; however, ASMR and ASDR will continue to decline, with male ASMR dropping to 2.44 per 100000 and female ASMR to 0.16 per 100000.

CONCLUSIONS

Over the past three decades, the burden of LC attributable to smoking in China has shown an increasing trend, with sex and age disparities. This burden is expected to continue rising over the next fourteen years. Therefore, it is imperative to strengthen smoking prevention and cessation efforts, particularly targeting high-risk groups. Additionally, continued emphasis on education and awareness regarding LC is necessary to facilitate early detection and intervention, thereby effectively reducing the disease burden attributable to smoking.

A systematic review and network meta-analysis of population-level interventions to tackle smoking behaviour

This preregistered systematic review and meta-analysis (PROSPERO: CRD 42022311392) aimed to synthesize the effectiveness of all available population-level tobacco policies on smoking behaviour. Our search across 5 databases and leading organizational websites resulted in 9,925 records, with 476 studies meeting our inclusion criteria. In our narrative summary and both pairwise and network meta-analyses, we identified anti-smoking campaigns, health warnings and tax increases as the most effective tobacco policies for promoting smoking cessation. Flavour bans and free/discounted nicotine replacement therapy also showed statistically significant positive effects on quit rates. The network meta-analysis results further indicated that smoking bans, anti-tobacco campaigns and tax increases effectively reduced smoking prevalence. In addition, flavour bans significantly reduced e-cigarette consumption. Both the narrative summary and the meta-analyses revealed that smoking bans, tax increases and anti-tobacco campaigns were associated with reductions in tobacco consumption and sales. On the basis of the available evidence, anti-tobacco campaigns, smoking bans, health warnings and tax increases are probably the most effective policies for curbing smoking behaviour.

[Application of the cigarette purchase tasks in achieving China' s tobacco control goals]

OBJECTIVE

To assess cigarette demand among Chinese smokers through a cigarette purchase task (CPT) and to evaluate cigarette prices under different hypothetical scenarios in order to meet the goals of smoking prevalence reduction in China.

METHODS

In the study, 447 participants completed a hypothetical CPT at baseline assessments of a trial, thus, cigarette demand curves were individually fitted for each participant using an exponentiated version of the exponential demand model. Typically, five demand indices were derived, intensity (consumption when free), breakpoint (first price at which consumption is suppressed to 0), maximum output (Omax), maximum price (Pmax, price at which Omax occurred), and elasticity (the ratio of the change in quantity demanded to the change in price). A one-way analysis of variance was used to explore the correlations between the cigarette purchase task indices and socio-demographic and smoking characteristics. The one-way decay model was employed to simulate the smoking cessation rates and determine optimal cigarette prices in a series of scenarios for achieving 20% smoking prevalence.

RESULTS

The price elasticity drawn from CPT was 0.54, indicating that a 10% price increase could reduce smoking by 5.4% in the participated smokers. Smokers with higher income were less sensitive to cigarette prices (elasticity=-2.31, P=0.028). Cigarette purchase task indices varied significantly among the smokers with different prices of commonly used cigarettes, tobacco dependence, and smoking volume. The smokers who consumed cigarettes of higher prices reported higher breakpoint, Omax and Pmax, but lower intensity (P=0.001). The smokers who were moderately or highly nicotine dependent reported higher intensity, breakpoint, Omax and Pmax, and they had lower intensity (P=0.001). The smokers who had a higher volume of cigarettes reported higher intensity and Omax, and lower intensity (P < 0.001). To achieve the goal of reducing smoking prevalence to 20% in mainland China, we estimated the desired increase on smoking cessation rate and prices accordingly in a series of scenarios, considering the gender variance and reduced smoking initiation. In scenario (a), to achieve a smoking prevalence goal of 20%, it would be necessary for 24.81% of the current smokers to quit smoking when there were no new smokers. Our fitting model yielded a corresponding value of 59.64 yuan (95%CI 53.13-67.24). Given the assumption in scenario (b) that only males quitted smoking, the desired cessation rates would be 25.82%, with a higher corresponding price of 62.15 yuan (95%CI 55.40-70.06) to induce desired cessation rates. In the proposed scenario (c) where 40 percent of the reduction in smoking prevalence came from reduced smoking initiation, and females and males equally quitted smoking due to increased cigarette prices, the price of a pack of cigarettes would be at least 37.36 yuan (95%CI 32.32-42.69) (equals to $ 5.20) per pack to achieve the cessation rate of 14.89 percent. In scenario (d) where only males quitted smoking due to increased cigarette prices considering the reduced smoking initiation, the respective smoking cessation rates should be 15.49% with the desired prices of 38.60 yuan (95%CI 33.53-44.02). After adjusting for education levels and income levels in scenario (c), the price of cigarettes would be at least 37.37 yuan/pack (equals to $ 5.20) (95%CI 30.73-44.94) and 37.84 yuan/pack (equals to $ 5.26) (95%CI 31.94-44.53), respectively.

CONCLUSION

Cigarette purchase task indices are significantly associated with income levels and prices of commonly used cigarettes, levels of tobacco dependence, and smoking volume, which is inspiring in studying price factors that influence smoking behavior. It is suggested that higher cigarette prices, surpassing the current actual market level, is imperative in mainland China. Stronger policy stra-tegies should be taken to increase tobacco taxes and retail cigarette prices to achieve the Healthy China 2030 goal of reducing smoking prevalence to 20%.

Tobacco control in China

Chinese men consume around 40% of the world's cigarettes, causing a substantial and growing burden of tobacco-attributed death and disease. In 2005, the Chinese Government ratified the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control, and tobacco control measures have since increased nationwide. To assess tobacco control progress, obstacles, and opportunities, this Review describes the long-term evolution of cigarette consumption and the associated disease burden in mainland China, and the implementation of five important tobacco control strategies advocated by WHO. These strategies covered tobacco taxation; package warnings; advertising, promotion, and sponsorship bans; public smoking bans; and cessation services. Although only 2% of women in China now smoke, half of all adult men smoke cigarettes. By the 2010s, smoking accounted for about a fifth of all adult male deaths, and this proportion is rising, following a trajectory similar to that seen in the USA 40 years earlier. The self-regulating national tobacco monopoly and its influence on policy, the country's relatively low tobacco tax, and its weak package warnings and enforcement of other tobacco control strategies all highlight challenges in tobacco control. However, these challenges can also provide opportunities to discourage smoking initiation in young women and encourage cessation in men, assisting China's long march towards better health.

Real-world, anti-tobacco environmental impact upon price-induced smoking reduction among urban Chinese men: Evidence from China's 2015 cigarette tax increase

INTRODUCTION

Raising the price of cigarettes via taxation has been promoted by the World Health Organization as an important tobacco control strategy. Price elasticity of cigarettes is not uniform and is dependent upon individual and environmental determinants. Many studies have examined the determinants of price-induced smoking, taking into account sociodemographic characteristics and consumption patterns. Little research has been conducted on the association between anti-smoking environments and price-induced smoking behavior. This study addresses the deficit within the Chinese context.

METHODS

Participants were 2852 male smokers identified through a multi-stage survey sampling process encompassing 6 cities in China between July and December 2016. A standardized questionnaire tapped price-induced smoking reduction and related information. Both unadjusted and adjusted logistic regression methods were applied in the analyses.

RESULTS

In all, 25.5% (95% CI: 22.5-27.9) of smokers in this study decreased their smoking expenditures following the 2015 excise tax increase. The adjusted logistic regression analysis showed that increased exposures to an anti-smoking information environment (AOR=1.39; 95% CI: 1.10-1.79), restricted smoking in their home (AOR=1.67; 95% CI: 1.32-2.08) and workplace (AOR=1.43; 95% CI: 1.09-1.85) were more likely to report diminished cigarette smoking following the tax increases.

CONCLUSIONS

This study adds to understanding price-induced smoking behavior among urban male Chinese smokers. Strengthening of excise tax policies needs to intensify environmental smoking restrictions and public education campaigns to increase the sensitivity of cigarette price changes among smokers.

Early Assessment of Impact of Increased Value Added Tax on Smoking Behaviors and Financing among Adult Smokers in Saudi Arabia

Background

Cigarette smoking has been identified as most perilous risk factor for several health ailments. Increased price may discourage smoking habits. There is limited literature available on impact of price rise on smoking behaviors in Saudi Arabia, which is the fourth largest importer of cigarettes and this study assessed the impact of tax increase (in 2020) on smoking behaviors.

Methods

A cross-sectional survey was carried out between July 2021 and December 2021.i.e.one year after new value added tax (VAT) system came into force. Data was collected with 14-item pretested questionnaire from 721 adult smokers in Al-Jouf Region of Saudi Arabia selected through stratified cluster ransom sampling. We measured effects of tax increase on smoking behaviors, its impact on decision to quit and perceived health improvements as outcome variables.

Results

Nearly 40% of the respondents said that increased price lead them to smoke less number of cigarettes per day (P=0.000), decreased smoking improved their health in terms of breathing capacity, mood, ability to exercise and sleep in hierarchy. 67.4% of the participants are currently thinking of quitting smoking due to increased prices (P=0.001) and logistic regression models identified reduced smoking due to tax rise (Odds=5.68), improvement in health (Odds=2.94) and excess spending of above 20% (Odds=1.72) significantly associated with intentions to quit smoking.

Conclusion

Increased price of cigarettes due to VAT significantly decreased smoking behaviors and has impact on smokers' decision to quit smoking. Future studies needed to assess the long-term effect of increased tax on smoking behaviors and its relapse.

Trends in Socio-economic Inequality in Smoking Among Middle-aged and Older Adults in China: Evidence From the 2011 and 2018 China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study

INTRODUCTION

Socio-economic inequalities in smoking and related health problems are a public health concern worldwide. To support the development of effective tobacco control policies, this study examines trends in smoking rates according to socio-economic status (SES) in China.

AIMS AND METHODS

We analyzed data from repeated cross-sectional China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) on adults aged ≥45 years for the years 2011 and 2018, which involved 16 471 participants in 2011 and 19 367 in 2018. We then estimated the SES of individuals based on four types of wealth-related variables, namely, education, occupation, household characteristics, and durable consumer goods. Principal-component analysis was conducted to measure SES, and the Erreygers normalised concentration index (ECI) was used to calculate socio-economic inequality in current smoking by gender, age, and region.

RESULTS

The overall ECI (95% confidence interval) for women was -0.042 (-0.054 to -0.031) and -0.038 (-0.047 to -0.029) for 2011 and 2018, respectively. The ECI (95% confidence interval) for men was -0.077 (-0.101 to -0.050) and -0.019 (-0.042 to 0.005) for 2011 and 2018, respectively. The inequality in smoking by SES for adults aged < 60 years in the Northeast region increased during 2011-2018, from -0.069 (-0.144 to 0.006) to -0.119 (-0.199 to -0.038) for women and from 0.009 (-0.115 to 0.132) to -0.164 (-0.296 to -0.032) for men.

CONCLUSIONS

smoking inequality by socio-economic among adults aged ≥45 years declined in recent years in China. However, smoking inequality by SES increased in other population groups.

IMPLICATIONS

Our research indicated that socio-economic inequality of current smoking among residents aged 45 years and older declined in 2018 when compared with 2011 numbers, particularly for men aged ≥ 60 years. Women in the Northeast region displayed more significant smoking inequality by SES than women in other regions did. During the study period, there was an increase in inequality in smoking by SES for adults aged < 60 years in the Northeast region. Thus, tobacco control policies and interventions should be targeted at high-risk subpopulations with lower SES, particularly in Northeast China.

China's Smoke-free Policies in Public Place and the Smoking Cessation Status of Smokers

INTRODUCTION

Smoking remains a major health risk factor and China is the world's largest consumer of tobacco. Smoke-free policies in public places are a powerful weapon in tobacco control. Therefore, the aim of this study was to assess the association between smoke-free policies in public places and smoking cessation among smokers in China from 2012 to 2020.

METHODS

In this study, we assessed the impact of smoke-free public places policies on smoking cessation situation among smokers aged 16 years and older. We do this by conducting a difference-in-differences analysis using data from the China Family Panel Study (CFPS) 2012-2020.

FINDINGS

By 2020, about 60.2% of the cities were covered by partial smoke-free policies and about 38.5% by comprehensive smoke-free policies. Based on the results of the study, we found that the medium-term effect model (Model 2, 2012:2016; Model 3, 2012:2018) of the impact of partial smoke-free policies on smoking cessation was not statistically significant using 2012 as the study baseline; the short-term effect model (Model 1; 2012:2014; P< .01) and the long-term effect model (Model 4; 2012:2020; P< .05) were statistically significant; the effect of a comprehensive smoke-free policy on smoking cessation (Model 5; 2012:2020; P<.05) was statistically significant.

CONCLUSION

China's existing comprehensive smoke-free policies have had a modest impact on smoking cessation among the smoking population, and a strong, comprehensive national smoke-free law is urgently needed to achieve greater public health outcomes.

IMPLICATIONS

Smoke-free policies are an important intervention to influence smoking behavior. This study demonstrates that comprehensive smoke-free policies in public places in China can effectively influence smoking behavior and show long-term trends in smoke-free behavior, while also reflecting the need to promote comprehensive smoke-free policies. This study provides a basis for the implementation of comprehensive smokefree policies into law and also provides a basis for policy makers.

Analysis of nicotine dependence among daily smokers in China: evidence from a cross-sectional study in Zhejiang Province

OBJECTIVE

The current study aimed to assess the level of nicotine dependence and its influencing factors among daily smokers in Zhejiang, China.

SETTING

The 2020 Global Adult Tobacco Survey was conducted in Zhejiang, China.

PARTICIPANTS

1244 daily smokers aged ≥15 years.

MEASURES

Respondents were asked questions regarding their age, sex, residence, education level, occupation, household income, age of starting daily smoking and nicotine dependence.

RESULTS

The findings revealed that 17.4% of daily smokers were highly dependent on nicotine, and the mean Fagerström Test for Nicotine Dependence score of daily smokers was (3.1±2.4). Age, educational level, occupation and age of starting daily smoking had significant effects on high nicotine dependence, whereas residence, sex and yearly household income were not significant factors. Compared with the age group ≥60 years, the proportion of respondents with a higher nicotine dependence level was lower in the age group of 15-39 years (OR=0.45). Daily smokers with a higher education level had a lower nicotine dependence level than those with a lower education level: primary or less (OR=3.07) and secondary (OR=2.62). Government institution staff (OR=4.02), unemployed persons (OR=3.08) and industrial workers (OR=2.46) had significantly higher nicotine dependence levels than did workers in the other occupation categories. People who started daily smoking at ≤18 years of age had a higher nicotine dependence level (OR=2.25) than those who started later.

CONCLUSIONS

This study elucidated that nearly one-fifth of daily smokers in Zhejiang, China, have high nicotine dependence levels. Improved health information on tobacco smoking is needed to encourage daily smokers to quit smoking, particularly among young males, unemployed persons and those with lower education levels.

Changing Behaviour: Blindness to Risk and a Critique of Tobacco Control Policy in China—A Qualitative Study

(1) Background: It is well recognised that a focus on changing behaviour remains a dominant and often appealing approach to develop health policies. This study provides a sociological insight into young adults’ knowledge of the health effects of smoking cigarettes. We also examine the challenges in tobacco control and criticize the implementation policies in Chinese context. (2) Methods: The study applies both a micro-sociological and a macro-sociological approach using semi-structured interviews and documents as the primary research methodology. Fieldwork was conducted from July to September 2016 and December 2016 to March 2017. The qualitative study involved 45 semi-structured interviews with young adults aged 16–24 years (15 females and 30 males) in Tianjin, China. A grounded theory approach was used for a thematic analysis. (3) Results: The participants knew cigarettes are harmful, although they lacked a comprehensive understanding of the health risks of smoking. Because the health consequences usually emerge after a long period of smoking, young smokers decide to take the health risk. All participants have a general understanding of China’s tobacco control policies and think that the implementation is ineffective. (4) Conclusions: Changing in smoking is a process embedded in complex social environments and cultures. Smoking behaviour is not only a personal choice, but also related to personal connections with peers and identity in Chinese society. The Chinese government has made significant achievements in tobacco control since joining the WHO framework convention on tobacco control in 2005. However, implementation needs to be stricter in order to achieve international levels of control, especially in taxes on tobacco product and the price of cigarettes. There is an urgent need for the regulation of e-cigarettes in China.

Evolution of media frames about e-cigarettes from 2004 to 2019: a content analysis of newspapers in China

This study conducted a content analysis of 639 news articles about e-cigarettes in China from 2004-2019 to examine longitudinal changes in media frames and media tones about e-cigarettes in Chinese newspapers. Results indicated that policy frame was the most frequently used frame, followed by human impact frame, information frame, and uncertainty frame. Dividing the time period of 2004-2019 into four phases (i.e., 2004-2006, 2007-2010, 2011-2017 and 2018-2019), the study found that the frequency of the information frame significantly decreased over time, while the policy frame and uncertainty frame significantly increased, with the policy frame being the dominant frame in recent years. In contrast, the use of the economic frame and morality frame fluctuated, both reaching peaks in the phase of 2007-2010 and decreasing in the most recent phase. Overall, the tone of the large majority of news articles was unfavorable, and the turning point occurred in the phase of 2007-2010 when the percentage of news articles with negative tone exceeded those with positive tone for the first time. Framing of e-cigarette news articles in China demonstrated the pivotal role of policy makers in defining the e-cigarette issue, and the influence of the international public health community, as an important and reliable information source, on defining the health risk of e-cigarettes, which has implication for not only e-cigarette control, but tobacco control in China in general.

Modelling the expected impact of cigarette tax and price increases under Vietnam's excise tax law 2015-2020

BACKGROUND

Vietnam's national tobacco control strategy aims to reduce the rate of smoking among male adults from 45% in 2015 to 39% by 2020. The aim of this paper is to assess what contribution cigarette tax increases under Vietnam's current excise tax plan can be expected to make to this target, and to discuss what additional measures might be implemented accordingly.

METHODS

This study uses a mix of administrative datasets and predictive modelling techniques to assess the expected impact of tax and price increases on cigarette consumption, tobacco tax revenues and the rate of smoking between 2015 and 2020.

FINDINGS

The average retail price of cigarettes is estimated to have increased by 16% (sensitivity analysis: 14%-18%) in inflation-adjusted terms between 2015 and 2020, while cigarette consumption is projected to decrease by 5.1% (4.5%-5.5%). The rate of smoking among males is projected to decrease to 42.8% (42.1%-43.6%) compared with the target of 39%. Total tax revenues from cigarettes are projected to increase by 21% (19%-23%), reflecting an extra ₫3300 billion in inflation-adjusted revenues for the government.

CONCLUSION

The current excise tax law is expected to have only a modest impact on the rate of smoking in Vietnam, though it has generated tax revenues. If Vietnam is to achieve its tobacco control targets, the government should implement a mixed excise system with a high-specific component to promote public health by raising the price of cigarettes more significantly.

The impact of smoking on annual healthcare cost: an econometric model analysis in China, 2015

Background

Smoking exerts substantial medical burdens on society. Precise estimation of the smoking-attributable medical expenditures (SAME) helps to inform tobacco control policy makers. Based on the epidemiological approach, prior studies in China only focused on a few smoking-related diseases to estimate SAME. In contrast, this study used the econometric approach, which is capable of capturing all of the potential costs.

Methods

Three waves of panel data from the 2011–2015 national China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) were used. A total of 34,503 observations aged 45 and above were identified. Estimates from econometric models were combined to predict the smoking-attributable fraction (SAF) and medical expenditures attributable to smoking by sex, registered residency and healthcare service categories. All monetary amounts were adjusted to 2015 dollars.

Results

In 2015, the overall smoking-attributable fraction (SAF) of China was 10.97%, ranging from 5.77% for self-medication to 16.87% for inpatient visits. The smoking-attributable medical expenditure (SAME) was about $45.28 billion, accounting for 7.24% of the total health expenditure. The SAME was $226.77 per smoker aged 45 and above. The regression results suggest that being a former smoker has the greatest impact, which decreases over time after quitting however, on the value of medical expenditures.

Conclusions

Smoking-attributable medical expenditures was substantial and placed a heavy burden on Chinese society. Comprehensive tobacco control policies and regulations are still needed to promote progress toward curbing the tobacco related losses.

Effects of government cash subsidies on health risk behaviors of the rural elderly: Evidence from social pension expansions in China

INTRODUCTION

There is relatively little research on the impact of government cash subsidies on health risk behaviors of the elderly in China. We thus analyzed the effect of pension subsidies on the smoking and drinking behaviors of rural elderly using a pension scheme introduced in rural China in 2009.

METHODS

Based on panel data from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS) in 2008 and 2011, a Difference-in-Differences (DID) method was applied to comprehensively analyze the impact of the new agricultural insurance on the health risk behaviors of the rural elderly. In order to solve possible sample selection biases, the Propensity Score Matching with Difference-in-Differences (PSM-DID) approach was used.

RESULTS

We found that the implementation of the government cash subsidies clearly promoted smoking rather than drinking behavior among rural older adults. Specifically, the government cash subsidies facilitated smokers to smoke an additional 2.9 cigarettes/day, and the impact of government cash subsidies on the average cigarettes/day among smokers was more pronounced among the male elderly, lower age elderly, higher income elderly, and elderly with intact instrumental activities of daily living (IADL).

CONCLUSIONS

In order to reduce the negative externalities of old-age subsidies, the government should place some restrictions on the use of cash subsidies for tobacco purchase by the elderly.

Public Opinion About E-Cigarettes on Chinese Social Media: A Combined Study of Text Mining Analysis and Correspondence Analysis

Background

Electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes) have become increasingly popular. China has accelerated its legislation on e-cigarettes in recent years by issuing two policies to regulate their use: the first on August 26, 2018, and the second on November 1, 2019. Social media provide an efficient platform to access information on the public opinion of e-cigarettes.

Objective

To gain insight into how policies have influenced the reaction of the Chinese public to e-cigarettes, this study aims to understand what the Chinese public say about e-cigarettes and how the focus of discussion might have changed in the context of policy implementation.

Methods

This study uses a combination of text mining and correspondence analysis to content analyze 1160 e-cigarette–related questions and their corresponding answers from Zhihu, China’s largest question-and-answer platform and one of the country’s most trustworthy social media sources. From January 1, 2017, to December 31, 2019, Python was used to text mine the most frequently used words and phrases in public e-cigarette discussions on Zhihu. The correspondence analysis was used to examine the similarities and differences between high-frequency words and phrases across 3 periods (ie, January 1, 2017, to August 27, 2018; August 28, 2018, to October 31, 2019; and November 1, 2019, to January 1, 2020).

Results

The results of the study showed that the consistent themes across time were comparisons with traditional cigarettes, health concerns, and how to choose e-cigarette products. The issuance of government policies on e-cigarettes led to a change in the focus of public discussion. The discussion of e-cigarettes in period 1 mainly focused on the use and experience of e-cigarettes. In period 2, the public’s attention was not only on the substances related to e-cigarettes but also on the smoking cessation functions of e-cigarettes. In period 3, the public shifted their attention to the e-cigarette industry and government policy on the banning of e-cigarette sales to minors.

Conclusions

Social media are an informative source, which can help policy makers and public health professionals understand the public’s concerns over and understanding of e-cigarettes. When there was little regulation, public discussion was greatly influenced by industry claims about e-cigarettes; however, once e-cigarette policies were issued, these policies, to a large extent, set the agenda for public discussion. In addition, media reporting of these policies might have greatly influenced the way e-cigarette policies were discussed. Therefore, monitoring e-cigarette discussions on social media and responding to them in a timely manner will both help improve the public’s e-cigarette literacy and facilitate the implementation of e-cigarette–related policies.

Impact of Smoking Status on Stroke Recurrence

Background

Smoking is a well‐established risk factor of stroke and smoking cessation has been recommended for stroke prevention; however, the impact of smoking status on stroke recurrence has not been well studied to date.

Methods and Results

Patients with first‐ever stroke were enrolled and followed in the NSRP (Nanjing Stroke Registry Program). Smoking status was assessed at baseline and reassessed at the first follow‐up. The primary end point was defined as fatal or nonfatal recurrent stroke after 3 months of the index stroke. The association between smoking and the risk of stroke recurrence was analyzed with multivariate Cox regression model. At baseline, among 3069 patients included, 1331 (43.4%) were nonsmokers, 263 (8.6%) were former smokers, and 1475 (48.0%) were current smokers. At the first follow‐up, 908 (61.6%) patients quit smoking. After a mean follow‐up of 2.4±1.2 years, 293 (9.5%) patients had stroke recurrence. With nonsmokers as the reference, the adjusted hazard ratios for stroke recurrence were 1.16 (95% CI, 0.75–1.79) in former smokers, 1.31 (95% CI, 0.99–1.75) in quitters, and 1.93 (95% CI, 1.43–2.61) in persistent smokers. Among persistent smokers, hazard ratios for stroke recurrence ranged from 1.68 (95% CI, 1.14–2.48) in those who smoked 1 to 20 cigarettes daily to 2.72 (95% CI, 1.36–5.43) in those who smoked more than 40 cigarettes daily (P for trend <0.001).

Conclusions

After an initial stroke, persistent smoking increases the risk of stroke recurrence. There exists a dose–response relationship between smoking quantity and the risk of stroke recurrence.

The Impact of Cigarette Excise Tax Increases on Regular Drinking Behavior: Evidence from China

(1) Background: Many studies have shown that increasing taxation on cigarettes does play a role in tobacco control, but few studies have focused on whether increasing cigarette excise taxes significantly affects alcohol consumption. In this article, we aim to examine the effects of China's 2015 increase in the cigarette excise tax on residents' regular drinking behavior. (2) Methods: Using survey data from China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), we performed a panel logit regression analysis to model the relationship between the cigarette excise tax and regular drinking behavior. The Propensity Score Matching with Difference-in-Differences (PSM-DID) approach was adopted to determine the extent to which the cigarette excise tax affected residents' drinking behavior. To test whether the cigarette excise tax could change regular drinking behavior by decreasing daily smoking quantity, we used an interaction term model. (3) Results: China's 2015 increase in the cigarette excise tax had a significant negative effect on the probability of regular alcohol consumption among smokers, and the cigarette excise tax worked by reducing the average daily smoking of smokers. We also found that the regular drinking behavior of male smokers was more deeply affected by the increased cigarette excise tax than females. (4) Conclusions: Our research results not only give a deeper understanding of the impact of the cigarette excise tax, but also provide an important reference with which to guide future decisions concerning excise taxes imposed on cigarettes.

Epidemiology of Cardiovascular Disease in China and Opportunities for Improvement: JACC International

The burden of cardiovascular (CV) disease is very high in China, due to highly prevalent and poorly controlled risk factors resulting from changing sociodemographic structure and lifestyles in its large population. Rapid economic development and urbanization have been accompanied by changing patterns, expression, and management of CV disease. However, the health care system in China lacks a hierarchical structure, with a focus on treating acute diseases in hospital while ignoring long-term management, and primary health care is too weak to effectively control CV risk factors. To address these challenges, the Chinese central government has ensured health is a national priority and has introduced reforms that include implementing policies for a healthy environment, strengthening primary care, and improving affordability and accessibility within the health system. Turning the inverted pyramid of the health care system is essential in the ongoing battle against CV disease.

Tobacco control and Healthy China 2030

BACKGROUND

The Healthy China 2030 strategy sets ambitious targets for China's policy-makers, including a decrease in the smoking rate from 27.7% in 2015 to 20% by 2030. China has made progress on tobacco control in recent years, but many key measures remain underused. This study explores the potential for full implementation of these measures to achieve the targeted reduction in smoking by 2030.

METHODS

First, a 'business as usual' scenario for China's cigarette market was developed based only on underlying economic parameters. Second, non-price tobacco control measures were then added assuming they are fully implemented by 2030. Third, excise per pack was raised to a level that would increase the real price of cigarettes by 50% in 2030.

FINDINGS

Under the business as usual scenario, the rate of smoking falls to around 26.6% in 2030. When non-price measures are included, the rate of smoking falls to 22.0% (20.9%~23.1%). Thus, non-price measures alone are unlikely to achieve the Healthy China target. Under the third scenario, excise per pack was roughly doubled in 2030 in order to increase real cigarette prices by 50%. The rate of smoking then falls to 19.7% (18.2%~21.3%), reflecting 78 million (59~97 million) fewer smokers compared with 2016. In addition, real excise revenue from cigarettes increases by 21% (-3%~47%) compared with 2016.

CONCLUSION

Significantly higher tobacco taxes will be needed to achieve Healthy China 2030 target for reduced smoking even after the implementation of other tobacco control measures.

Cigarette Affordability in China, 2006⁻2015: Findings from International Tobacco Control China Surveys

China is world’s largest market of machine-made cigarettes. In 2015, more than 315 million or around 26.9% of the adult population in China were smokers—50.6% among men and 2.2% among women. Growing affordability of cigarettes led to increased cigarette consumption in China to the detriment of public health. This study investigated whether the level and growth in cigarette affordability in China was equally shared by smokers from all demographic and socio-economic statuses (SES) and across all price tiers of cigarette brands. The data came from the urban smoker sample (≥18 years) of the International Tobacco Control China Surveys conducted in five waves over 2006–2015. Cigarette affordability was measured by Relative Income Price—percentage of per capita household income needed to purchase 100 cigarette packs of the last purchased brand. Overall and group-specific trends in affordability by age, gender, SES (e.g., income, education, and employment status), and price tiers were analyzed using generalized estimating equations method. Cigarette affordability was higher among older, female, and higher-SES smokers, and for cheaper brands. It increased overall and across all groups over time. The increase was significantly larger among younger and lower-SES smokers, a trend that poses an added challenge to tobacco control and health equity. To reduce cigarette affordability and consumption among these vulnerable groups, a uniform specific excise system should be introduced in place of the existing tiered ad valorem excise. The specific excise should be periodically adjusted to inflation and per capita income growth observed among younger and lower-SES people, who can potentially experience faster income growth than the national average. The excise tax policy can also be complimented with minimum price regulations and restrictions on price promotions.

Implementation planning for lung cancer screening in China

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer-related deaths in China, with over 690 000 lung cancer deaths estimated in 2018. The mortality has increased about five-fold from the mid-1970s to the 2000s. Lung cancer low-dose computerized tomography (LDCT) screening in smokers was shown to improve survival in the US National Lung Screening Trial, and more recently in the European NELSON trial. However, although the predominant risk factor, smoking contributes to a lower fraction of lung cancers in China than in the UK and USA. Therefore, it is necessary to establish Chinese-specific screening strategies. There have been 23 associated programmes completed or still ongoing in China since the 1980s, mainly after 2000; and one has recently been planned. Generally, their entry criteria are not smoking-stringent. Most of the Chinese programmes have reported preliminary results only, which demonstrated a different high-risk subpopulation of lung cancer in China. Evidence concerning LDCT screening implementation is based on results of randomized controlled trials outside China. LDCT screening programmes combining tobacco control would produce more benefits. Population recruitment (e.g. risk-based selection), screening protocol, nodule management and cost-effectiveness are discussed in detail. In China, the high-risk subpopulation eligible for lung cancer screening has not as yet been confirmed, as all the risk parameters have not as yet been determined. Although evidence on best practice for implementation of lung cancer screening has been accumulating in other countries, further research in China is urgently required, as China is now facing a lung cancer epidemic.