Ecological factors associated with West Nile virus transmission, northeastern United States

The Built Environment and Pediatric Health

Buildings, parks, and roads are all elements of the "built environment," which can be described as the human-made structures that comprise the neighborhoods and communities where people live, work, learn, and recreate (https://www.epa.gov/smm/basic-information-about-built-environment). The design of communities where children and adolescents live, learn, and play has a profound impact on their health. Moreover, the policies and practices that determine community design and the built environment are a root cause of disparities in the social determinants of health that contribute to health inequity. An understanding of the links between the built environment and pediatric health will help to inform pediatricians' and other pediatric health professionals' care for patients and advocacy on their behalf. This technical report describes the range of pediatric physical and mental health conditions influenced by the built environment, as well as historical and persistent effects of the built environment on health disparities. The accompanying policy statement outlines community design solutions that can improve pediatric health and health equity, including opportunities for pediatricians and the health care sector to incorporate this knowledge in patient care, as well as to play a role in advancing a health-promoting built environment for all children and families.

Evaluation of NS4A, NS4B, NS5 and 3'UTR Genetic Determinants of WNV Lineage 1 Virulence in Birds and Mammals

West Nile virus (WNV) is amplified in an enzootic cycle involving birds as amplifying hosts. Because they do not develop high levels of viremia, humans and horses are considered to be dead-end hosts. Mosquitoes, especially from the Culex genus, are vectors responsible for transmission between hosts. Consequently, understanding WNV epidemiology and infection requires comparative and integrated analyses in bird, mammalian, and insect hosts. So far, markers of WNV virulence have mainly been determined in mammalian model organisms (essentially mice), while data in avian models are still missing. WNV Israel 1998 (IS98) is a highly virulent strain that is closely genetically related to the strain introduced into North America in 1999, NY99 (genomic sequence homology > 99%). The latter probably entered the continent at New York City, generating the most impactful WNV outbreak ever documented in wild birds, horses, and humans. In contrast, the WNV Italy 2008 strain (IT08) induced only limited mortality in birds and mammals in Europe during the summer of 2008. To test whether genetic polymorphism between IS98 and IT08 could account for differences in disease spread and burden, we generated chimeric viruses between IS98 and IT08, focusing on the 3' end of the genome (NS4A, NS4B, NS5, and 3'UTR regions) where most of the non-synonymous mutations were detected. In vitro and in vivo comparative analyses of parental and chimeric viruses demonstrated a role for NS4A/NS4B/5'NS5 in the decreased virulence of IT08 in SPF chickens, possibly due to the NS4B-E249D mutation. Additionally, significant differences between the highly virulent strain IS98 and the other three viruses were observed in mice, implying the existence of additional molecular determinants of virulence in mammals, such as the amino acid changes NS5-V258A, NS5-N280K, NS5-A372V, and NS5-R422K. As previously shown, our work also suggests that genetic determinants of WNV virulence can be host-dependent.

Effect of Agroecosystems on Seroprevalence of St. Louis Encephalitis and West Nile Viruses in Birds, La Pampa, Argentina, 2017-2019

In Argentina, the Pampa ecoregion has been almost completely transformed into agroecosystems. To evaluate the environmental (agricultural area, tree coverage, distance to the nearest water body and urban site) and biological (dove, cowbird, and sparrow abundance) effects on free-ranging bird exposure to St. Louis encephalitis virus (SLEV) and West Nile virus (WNV), we used generalized linear mixed models. For 1,019 birds sampled during 2017–2019, neutralizing antibodies were found against SLEV in samples from 60 (5.8%) birds and against WNV for 21 (2.1%). The best variable for explaining SLEV seroprevalence was agricultural area, which had a positive effect; however, for WNV, no model was conclusive. Our results suggest that agroecosystems in the La Pampa ecoregion increase the exposure of avian hosts to SLEV, thus potentially increasing virus activity.

Seroprevalence and Risk Factors for Equine West Nile Virus Infections in Eastern Germany, 2020

West Nile virus (WNV) infections were first detected in Germany in 2018, but information about WNV seroprevalence in horses is limited. The study’s overall goal was to gather information that would help veterinarians, horse owners, and veterinary-, and public health- authorities understand the spread of WNV in Germany and direct protective measures. For this purpose, WNV seroprevalence was determined in counties with and without previously registered WNV infections in horses, and risk factors for seropositivity were estimated. The cohort consisted of privately owned horses from nine counties in Eastern Germany. A total of 940 serum samples was tested by competitive panflavivirus ELISA (cELISA), and reactive samples were further tested by WNV IgM capture ELISA and confirmed by virus neutralization test (VNT). Information about potential risk factors was recorded by questionnaire and analyzed by logistic regression. A total of 106 serum samples showed antibodies against flaviviruses by cELISA, of which six tested positive for WNV IgM. The VNT verified a WNV infection for 54 samples (50.9%), while 35 sera neutralized tick-borne encephalitis virus (33.0%), and eight sera neutralized Usutu virus (7.5%). Hence, seroprevalence for WNV infection was 5.8% on average and was significantly higher in counties with previously registered infections (p = 0.005). The risk factor analysis showed breed type (pony), housing in counties with previously registered infections, housing type (24 h turn-out), and presence of outdoor shelter as the main significant risk factors for seropositivity. In conclusion, we estimated the extent of WNV infection in the resident horse population in Eastern Germany and showed that seroprevalence was higher in counties with previously registered equine WNV infections.

Pyrethroid Susceptibility in Culex quinquefasciatus Say. (Diptera: Culicidae) Populations from Delta State, Niger-Delta Region, Nigeria

The development of insecticide resistance in different species of mosquitoes to Pyrethroids is a major challenge for vector-borne diseases transmitted by mosquitoes. Failure of Pyrethroids in control of mosquitoes would impact negatively on the gains recorded in control of mosquito-borne diseases in previous years. In anticipation of a country-wide deployment of Pyrethroid-treated nets for control of mosquito-borne diseases in Nigeria, this study assessed susceptibility of Culex quinquefasciatus Say. (Diptera: Culicidae) to Pyrethroids in Owhelogbo, Ejeme and Oria-Abraka communities in Delta State, Niger-Delta, Nigeria. Three to five day old Cx. quinquefasciatus were exposed to Deltamethrin (0.05%), Permethrin (0.75%), and Alphacypermethrin (0.05%) using World Health Organization bioassay method. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) was employed in characterization of species and knockdown mutation. Results revealed that Cx. quinquefasciatus were generally susceptible (98-100%) to Deltamethrin, Permethrin, and Alphacypermethrin in the three communities with the exception of Owhelogbo where resistance to Deltamethrin (97%) was suspected. Knockdown time to Deltamethrin (11.51, 11.23, and 12.68 min), Permethrin (28.75, 13.26, and 14.49 min), and Alphacypermethrin (15.07, 12.50, and 13.03 min) were considerably low for Owhelogbo, Ejeme, and Oria-Abraka Cx. quinquefasciatus populations, respectively. Species identification result showed that all amplified samples were Cx. quinquefasciatus; however, no kdr allele was found in the three populations. Deployment of pyrethroid-treated nets for control of mosquito-borne diseases in Niger-Delta region of Nigeria is capable of reducing burden of diseases transmitted by Cx. quinquefasciatus as well as addressing nuisance value of the vector; however, caution must be entertained so as not to increase selection pressure thereby aiding resistance development.

Both consumptive and non-consumptive effects of predators impact mosquito populations and have implications for disease transmission

Predator-prey interactions influence prey traits through both consumptive and non-consumptive effects, and variation in these traits can shape vector-borne disease dynamics. Meta-analysis methods were employed to generate predation effect sizes by different categories of predators and mosquito prey. This analysis showed that multiple families of aquatic predators are effective in consumptively reducing mosquito survival, and that the survival of Aedes, Anopheles, and Culex mosquitoes is negatively impacted by consumptive effects of predators. Mosquito larval size was found to play a more important role in explaining the heterogeneity of consumptive effects from predators than mosquito genus. Mosquito survival and body size were reduced by non-consumptive effects of predators, but development time was not significantly impacted. In addition, Culex vectors demonstrated predator avoidance behavior during oviposition. The results of this meta-analysis suggest that predators limit disease transmission by reducing both vector survival and vector size, and that associations between drought and human West Nile virus cases could be driven by the vector behavior of predator avoidance during oviposition. These findings are likely to be useful to infectious disease modelers who rely on vector traits as predictors of transmission.

Emergence of epidemic diseases: zoonoses and other origins

Infectious diseases emerge via many routes and may need to overcome stepwise bottlenecks to burgeon into epidemics and pandemics. About 60% of human infections have animal origins, whereas 40% either co-evolved with humans or emerged from non-zoonotic environmental sources. Although the dynamic interaction between wildlife, domestic animals, and humans is important for the surveillance of zoonotic potential, exotic origins tend to be overemphasized since many zoonoses come from anthropophilic wild species (for example, rats and bats). We examine the equivocal evidence of whether the appearance of novel infections is accelerating and relate technological developments to the risk of novel disease outbreaks. Then we briefly compare selected epidemics, ancient and modern, from the Plague of Athens to COVID-19.

The community-wide effectiveness of municipal larval control programs for West Nile virus risk reduction in Connecticut, USA

BACKGROUND

Mosquito larval control through the use of insecticides is the most common strategy for suppressing West Nile virus (WNV) vector populations in Connecticut (CT), USA. To evaluate the ability of larval control to reduce entomological risk metrics associated with WNV, we performed WNV surveillance and assessments of municipal larvicide application programs in Milford and Stratford, CT in 2019 and 2020. Each town treated catch basins and nonbasin habitats (Milford only) with biopesticide products during both WNV transmission seasons. Adult mosquitoes were collected weekly with gravid and CO₂ -baited light traps and tested for WNV; larvae and pupae were sampled weekly from basins within 500 m of trapping sites, and Culex pipiens larval mortality was determined with laboratory bioassays of catch basin water samples.

RESULTS

Declines in 4th instar larvae and pupae were observed in catch basins up to 2-week post-treatment, and we detected a positive relationship between adult female C. pipiens collections in gravid traps and pupal abundance in basins. We also detected a significant difference in total light trap collections between the two towns. Despite these findings, C. pipiens adult collections and WNV mosquito infection prevalence in gravid traps were similar between towns.

CONCLUSION

Larvicide applications reduced pupal abundance and the prevalence of host-seeking adults with no detectable impact on entomological risk metrics for WNV. Further research is needed to better determine the level of mosquito larval control required to reduce WNV transmission risk.

Human-mediated impacts on biodiversity and the consequences for zoonotic disease spillover

Human-mediated changes to natural ecosystems have consequences for both ecosystem and human health. Historically, efforts to preserve or restore 'biodiversity' can seem to be in opposition to human interests. However, the integration of biodiversity conservation and public health has gained significant traction in recent years, and new efforts to identify solutions that benefit both environmental and human health are ongoing. At the forefront of these efforts is an attempt to clarify ways in which biodiversity conservation can help reduce the risk of zoonotic spillover of pathogens from wild animals, sparking epidemics and pandemics in humans and livestock. However, our understanding of the mechanisms by which biodiversity change influences the spillover process is incomplete, limiting the application of integrated strategies aimed at achieving positive outcomes for both conservation and disease management. Here, we review the literature, considering a broad scope of biodiversity dimensions, to identify cases where zoonotic pathogen spillover is mechanistically linked to changes in biodiversity. By reframing the discussion around biodiversity and disease using mechanistic evidence - while encompassing multiple aspects of biodiversity including functional diversity, landscape diversity, phenological diversity, and interaction diversity - we work toward general principles that can guide future research and more effectively integrate the related goals of biodiversity conservation and spillover prevention. We conclude by summarizing how these principles could be used to integrate the goal of spillover prevention into ongoing biodiversity conservation initiatives.

Characterizing Areas with Increased Burden of West Nile Virus Disease in California, 2009-2018

West Nile virus (WNV) is a mosquito-borne flavivirus that can cause severe neurological disease in humans, for which there is no treatment or vaccine. From 2009 to 2018, California has reported more human disease cases than any other state in the United States. We sought to identify smaller geographic areas within the 10 California counties with the highest number of WNV cases that accounted for disproportionately large numbers of human cases from 2009 to 2018. Eleven areas, consisting of groups of high-burden ZIP codes, were identified in nine counties within southern California and California's Central Valley. Despite containing only 2% of California's area and 17% of the state's population, these high-burden ZIP codes accounted for 44% of WNV cases reported and had a mean annual incidence that was 2.4 times the annual state incidence. Focusing mosquito control and public education efforts in these areas would lower WNV disease burden.

Relative abundance and molecular identification of Culex pipiens complex (Diptera: Culicidae), in Kura Local Government Area, North-western Nigeria

Culex species are the most widespread mosquito species across the world and are known to be highly opportunistic, feeding on humans and livestock. They are known to acquire the potential to transmit zoonotic diseases, including Rift Valley Fever (RVF). However, despite their public health significance, they remain understudied in North-western Nigeria, compared to Anophelines. This study was therefore aimed at determining the relative abundance and Multiplex polymerase chain reaction (Multiplex PCR) identification of members of the Culex pipiens complex, in Kura Local Government Area (LGA), North-western, Nigeria. Adult mosquitoes were collected using Center for Disease Control (CDC) miniature light traps from August to October 2019. Mosquitoes were identified using morphological identification keys. Members of the Culex pipiens complex were further identified using Multiplex PCR to assess the presence of sibling species. A total of 413 mosquitoes, belonging to 3 genera, Culex, Anopheles and Aedes were collected. Of this figure, 120 Culex spp. females were collected. Homes with livestock had the highest occurrence of mosquitoes, 123 (61.19%) compared to those without livestock, 78 (38.81%). There was no statistical difference among the two (2) categories of homes (P ≥ 0.005). Culicoides spp. were the most common with 130 collected (65.38%). Again, homes with livestock had the highest occurrence, 85 whilst homes without livestock had 45 of the other flies caught. Multiplex- PCR revealed no expected bands for Cx. quinquefasciatus and Cx. pipiens from the DNA obtained from field collected mosquitoes as confirmed by using genomic DNA of an insectary Culex quinquefasciatus as control. Cx. spp. is presently regarded as a biting nuisance having no significant epidemiological importance. Efforts at its control should be intensified before it is too late. This study provides useful information on the occurrence and multiplex PCR of Culex spp in Kura Local Government Area, North-western Nigeria. These results have implications for the control of Culex spp. mosquito populations and the spread of human, livestock and avian diseases.

Ecological Effects on the Dynamics of West Nile Virus and Avian Plasmodium: The Importance of Mosquito Communities and Landscape

Humans and wildlife are at risk from certain vector-borne diseases such as malaria, dengue, and West Nile and yellow fevers. Factors linked to global change, including habitat alteration, land-use intensification, the spread of alien species, and climate change, are operating on a global scale and affect both the incidence and distribution of many vector-borne diseases. Hence, understanding the drivers that regulate the transmission of pathogens in the wild is of great importance for ecological, evolutionary, health, and economic reasons. In this literature review, we discuss the ecological factors potentially affecting the transmission of two mosquito-borne pathogens circulating naturally between birds and mosquitoes, namely, West Nile virus (WNV) and the avian malaria parasites of the genus Plasmodium. Traditionally, the study of pathogen transmission has focused only on vectors or hosts and the interactions between them, while the role of landscape has largely been ignored. However, from an ecological point of view, it is essential not only to study the interaction between each of these organisms but also to understand the environmental scenarios in which these processes take place. We describe here some of the similarities and differences in the transmission of these two pathogens and how research into both systems may facilitate a greater understanding of the dynamics of vector-borne pathogens in the wild.

Influence of air pollution and meteorological factors on the spread of COVID-19 in the Bangkok Metropolitan Region and air quality during the outbreak

This study investigated the effects of weather conditions, air pollutants, and the air quality index (AQI) on daily cases of COVID-19 in the Bangkok Metropolitan Region (BMR). In this research, we collected data from January 1 to March 30, 2020 (90 days). This study used secondary data of meteorological and air pollutant parameters obtained from the Pollution Control Department of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment as well as daily confirmed COVID-19 case data in the BMR obtained from the official webpage of the Department of Disease Control, Ministry of Public Health, Thailand. We employed descriptive statistics, and Spearman and Kendall rank correlation tests were used to investigate the associations of weather variables, air pollutants, AQI with daily confirmed COVID-19 cases. Our findings indicate that CO, NO2, SO2, O3 PM10, PM2.5, AQI have a significantly negative association with daily confirmed COVID-19 cases in the BMR, whereas meteorological parameters such as temperature, relative humidity (RH), absolute humidity (AH) and wind speed (WS) showed significant positive associations with daily confirmed COVID-19 cases in the BMR. Our study is a useful supplement to encourage regulatory bodies to promote environmental strategies, as air pollution regulation could be a sustainable policy for mitigating the harmful effects of air pollutants. Furthermore, this study provides new insights into the relationship between daily meteorological factors, AQI, and air pollutants and daily confirmed COVID-19 cases in the BMR. These data may provide useful information to the public health authorities and decision makers in Thailand, as well as to the World Health Organization (WHO), in order to set proper strategic aimed at reducing the impact of the COVID-19. Future studies concerning SARS-CoV-2 and other viruses should investigate the possibility of infectious droplet dispersion in indoor and outdoor air during and after the epidemic outbreak.

Soft Computing of a Medically Important Arthropod Vector with Autoregressive Recurrent and Focused Time Delay Artificial Neural Networks

Simple Summary

Arthropod vectors are responsible for transmitting a large number of diseases, and for most, there are still not available effective vaccines. Vector disease control is mostly achieved by a sustained prediction of vector populations to maintain support for surveillance and control activities. Mathematical models may assist in predicting arthropod population dynamics. However, arthropod dynamics, and mosquitoes particularly, due their complex life cycle, often exhibit an abrupt and non-linear occurrence. Therefore, there is a growing interest in describing mosquito population dynamics using new methodologies. In this work, we made an effort to gain insights into the non-linear population dynamics of Culex sp. adults, aiming to introduce straightforward soft-computing techniques based on artificial neural networks (ANNs). We propose two kind of models, one autoregressive, handling temperature as an exogenous driver and population as an endogenous one, and a second based only on the exogenous factor. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study using recurrent neural networks and the most influential environmental variable for prediction of the WNv vector Culex sp. population dynamics, providing a new framework to be used in arthropod decision-support systems.

Abstract

A central issue of public health strategies is the availability of decision tools to be used in the preventive management of the transmission cycle of vector-borne diseases. In this work, we present, for the first time, a soft system computing modeling approach using two dynamic artificial neural network (ANNs) models to describe and predict the non-linear incidence and time evolution of a medically important mosquito species, Culex sp., in Northern Greece. The first model is an exogenous non-linear autoregressive recurrent neural network (NARX), which is designed to take as inputs the temperature as an exogenous variable and mosquito abundance as endogenous variable. The second model is a focused time-delay neural network (FTD), which takes into account only the temperature variable as input to provide forecasts of the mosquito abundance as the target variable. Both models behaved well considering the non-linear nature of the adult mosquito abundance data. Although, the NARX model predicted slightly better (R = 0.623) compared to the FTD model (R = 0.534), the advantage of the FTD over the NARX neural network model is that it can be applied in the case where past values of the population system, here mosquito abundance, are not available for their forecasting.

Temporal and Spatial Blood Feeding Patterns of Urban Mosquitoes in the San Juan Metropolitan Area, Puerto Rico

Simple Summary

Understanding the biodiversity of urban ecosystems is critical for management of invasive and pest species, conserving native species, and disease control. Mosquitoes (Culicidae) are ubiquitous and abundant in urban ecosystems, and rely on blood meals taken from vertebrates. We used DNA from freshly blood-fed mosquitoes to characterize the diversity of vertebrate host species in the San Juan Metropolitan Area, Puerto Rico. We collected two mosquito species that fed on a variety of vertebrates. Culex quinquefasciatus fed on 17 avian taxa (81.2% of blood meals), seven mammalian taxa (17.9%), and one reptilian taxon (0.85%). Aedes aegypti blood meals were from a less diverse group, with two avian taxa (11.1%) and three mammalian taxa (88.9%) identified. Domestic chickens dominated the blood meals of Cx. quinquefasciatus, both temporally and spatially, and no statistically significant shift from birds to mammals was detected. The species we detected from the mosquito blood meals provided a snapshot of the vertebrate community in the San Juan Metropolitan Area, most of which were domestic species. However, we also identified a variety of native and nonnative wild species. These results add knowledge about potential ecological factors that impact vector-borne disease management in urban habitats.

Abstract

Urban ecosystems are a patchwork of habitats that host a broad diversity of animal species. Insects comprise a large portion of urban biodiversity which includes many pest species, including those that transmit pathogens. Mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) inhabit urban environments and rely on sympatric vertebrate species to complete their life cycles, and in this process transmit pathogens to animals and humans. Given that mosquitoes feed upon vertebrates, they can also act as efficient samplers that facilitate detection of vertebrate species that utilize urban ecosystems. In this study, we analyzed DNA extracted from mosquito blood meals collected temporally in multiple neighborhoods of the San Juan Metropolitan Area, Puerto Rico to evaluate the presence of vertebrate fauna. DNA was collected from 604 individual mosquitoes that represented two common urban species, Culex quinquefasciatus (n = 586) and Aedes aegypti (n = 18). Culex quinquefasciatus fed on 17 avian taxa (81.2% of blood meals), seven mammalian taxa (17.9%), and one reptilian taxon (0.85%). Domestic chickens dominated these blood meals both temporally and spatially, and no statistically significant shift from birds to mammals was detected. Aedes aegypti blood meals were from a less diverse group, with two avian taxa (11.1%) and three mammalian taxa (88.9%) identified. The blood meals we identified provided a snapshot of the vertebrate community in the San Juan Metropolitan Area and have potential implications for vector-borne pathogen transmission.

A correlation study between weather and atmosphere with COVID-19 pandemic in Islamabad, Pakistan

The present research aims to investigate the association amid weather and the most recent pandemic of COVID-19 in Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan. The source of COVID-19 surveillance data for the secondary data analysis was the Pakistan’s Ministry of National Health Services Regulations and Coordination. The weather data obtained from the Pakistan Metrological Department (PMD) was exercised in this research. The components of weather include wind speed (m/s), precipitation level (mm), normal, mean, maximum, and minimum temperature (°C). For data analysis, a non-parametric correlation test was used due to the reason that normality was not satisfied. Precipitation level (r =  − 0.285; p  =0 .022), normal temperature (r = 0.293; p  = 0.019) as well as the maximum temperature (r = 0.347; p  = 0.005) were very much associated with COVID-19 virus. Pollution data (showing the concentration of NO2) of the specific region comprising the study area extracted from the Sentinel-5P satellite was also compared for the two years (2019 and 2020). Since the country will be entering to a new weather season, the conclusions may well assist the strategy and decision-makers in the deterrence of COVID-19.

Association of COVID-19 pandemic with meteorological parameters over Singapore

Meteorological parameters are the critical factors affecting the transmission of infectious diseases such as Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), and influenza. Consequently, infectious disease incidence rates are likely to be influenced by the weather change. This study investigates the role of Singapore's hot tropical weather in COVID-19 transmission by exploring the association between meteorological parameters and the COVID-19 pandemic cases in Singapore. This study uses the secondary data of COVID-19 daily cases from the webpage of Ministry of Health (MOH), Singapore. Spearman and Kendall rank correlation tests were used to investigate the correlation between COVID-19 and meteorological parameters. Temperature, dew point, relative humidity, absolute humidity, and water vapor showed positive significant correlation with COVID-19 pandemic. These results will help the epidemiologists to understand the behavior of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus against meteorological variables. This study finding would be also a useful supplement to help the local healthcare policymakers, Center for Disease Control (CDC), and the World Health Organization (WHO) in the process of strategy making to combat COVID-19 in Singapore.

Temperature and precipitation associate with Covid-19 new daily cases: A correlation study between weather and Covid-19 pandemic in Oslo, Norway

This study aims to analyze the correlation between weather and covid-19 pandemic in the capital city of Norway, Oslo. This study employed a secondary data analysis of covid-19 surveillance data from the Norwegian public health institute and weather data from the Norwegian Meteorological institute. The components of weather include minimum temperature (°C), maximum temperature (°C), temperature average (°C), normal temperature (°C), precipitation level (mm) and wind speed (m/s). Since normality was not fulfilled, a non-parametric correlation test was used for data analysis. Maximum temperature (r = 0.347; p = .005), normal temperature(r = 0.293; p = .019), and precipitation level (r = -0.285; p = .022) were significantly correlated with covid-19 pandemic. The finding might serve as an input to a strategy making in the prevention of covid-19 as the country prepare to enter into a new weather season.

A 15 Year Evaluation of West Nile Virus in Wisconsin: Effects on Wildlife and Human Health

West Nile virus (WNV) is the most important and widespread mosquito-borne virus in the United States (U.S.). WNV has the ability to spread rapidly and effectively, infecting more than 320 bird and mammalian species. An examination of environmental conditions and the health of keystone species may help predict the susceptibility of various habitats to WNV and reveal key risk factors, annual trends, and vulnerable regions. Since 2002, WNV outbreaks in Wisconsin varied by species, place, and time, significantly affected by unique climatic, environmental, and geographical factors. During a 15 year period, WNV was detected in 71 of 72 counties, resulting in 239 human and 1397 wildlife cases. Controlling for population and sampling efforts in Wisconsin, rates of WNV are highest in the western and northwestern rural regions of the state. WNV incidence rates were highest in counties with low human population densities, predominantly wetland, and at elevations greater than 1000 feet. Resources for surveillance, prevention, and detection of WNV were lowest in rural counties, likely resulting in underestimation of cases. Overall, increasing mean temperature and decreasing precipitation showed positive influence on WNV transmission in Wisconsin. This study incorporates the first statewide assessment of WNV in Wisconsin.

Integrating environmental and neighborhood factors in MaxEnt modeling to predict species distributions: A case study of Aedes albopictus in southeastern Pennsylvania

Aedes albopictus is a viable vector for several infectious diseases such as Zika, West Nile, Dengue viruses and others. Originating from Asia, this invasive species is rapidly expanding into North American temperate areas and urbanized places causing major concerns for public health. Previous analyses show that warm temperatures and high humidity during the mosquito season are ideal conditions for A. albopictus development, while its distribution is correlated with population density. To better understand A. albopictus expansion into urban places it is important to consider the role of both environmental and neighborhood factors. The present study aims to assess the relative importance of both environmental variables and neighborhood factors in the prediction of A. albopictus’ presence in Southeast Pennsylvania using MaxEnt (version 3.4.1) machine-learning algorithm. Three models are developed that include: (1) exclusively environmental variables, (2) exclusively neighborhood factors, and (3) a combination of environmental variables and neighborhood factors. Outcomes from the three models are compared in terms of variable importance, accuracy, and the spatial distribution of predicted A. albopictus’ presence. All three models predicted the presence of A. albopictus in urban centers, however, each to a different spatial extent. The combined model resulted in the highest accuracy (74.7%) compared to the model with only environmental variables (73.5%) and to the model with only neighborhood factors (72.1%) separately. Although the combined model does not essentially increase the accuracy in the prediction, the spatial patterns of mosquito distribution are different when compared to environmental or neighborhood factors alone. Environmental variables help to explain conditions associated with mosquitoes in suburban/rural areas, while neighborhood factors summarize the local conditions that can also impact mosquito habitats in predominantly urban places. Overall, the present study shows that MaxEnt is suitable for integrating neighborhood factors associated with mosquito presence that can complement and improve species distribution modeling.

Twenty Years of Progress Toward West Nile Virus Vaccine Development

Although West Nile virus (WNV) has been a prominent mosquito-transmitted infection in North America for twenty years, no human vaccine has been licensed. With a cumulative number of 24,714 neurological disease cases and 2314 deaths in the U.S. since 1999, plus a large outbreak in Europe in 2018 involving over 2000 human cases in 15 countries, a vaccine is essential to prevent continued morbidity, mortality, and economic burden. Currently, four veterinary vaccines are licensed, and six vaccines have progressed into clinical trials in humans. All four veterinary vaccines require multiple primary doses and annual boosters, but for a human vaccine to be protective and cost effective in the most vulnerable older age population, it is ideal that the vaccine be strongly immunogenic with only a single dose and without subsequent annual boosters. Of six human vaccine candidates, the two live, attenuated vaccines were the only ones that elicited strong immunity after a single dose. As none of these candidates have yet progressed beyond phase II clinical trials, development of new candidate vaccines and improvement of vaccination strategies remains an important area of research.

Predicting West Nile virus transmission in North American bird communities using phylogenetic mixed effects models and eBird citizen science data

BACKGROUND

West Nile virus (WNV) is a mosquito-transmitted disease of birds that has caused bird population declines and can spill over into human populations. Previous research has identified bird species that infect a large fraction of the total pool of infected mosquitoes and correlate with human infection risk; however, these analyses cover small spatial regions and cannot be used to predict transmission in bird communities in which these species are rare or absent. Here we present a mechanistic model for WNV transmission that predicts WNV spread (R0) in any bird community in North America by scaling up from the physiological responses of individual birds to transmission at the level of the community. We predict unmeasured bird species' responses to infection using phylogenetic imputation, based on these species' phylogenetic relationships with bird species with measured responses.

RESULTS

We focused our analysis on Texas, USA, because it is among the states with the highest total incidence of WNV in humans and is well sampled by birders in the eBird database. Spatio-temporal patterns: WNV transmission is primarily driven by temperature variation across time and space, and secondarily by bird community composition. In Texas, we predicted WNV R0 to be highest in the spring and fall when temperatures maximize the product of mosquito transmission and survival probabilities. In the most favorable months for WNV transmission (April, May, September and October), we predicted R0 to be highest in the "Piney Woods" and "Oak Woods & Prairies" ecoregions of Texas, and lowest in the "High Plains" and "South Texas Brush County" ecoregions. Dilution effect: More abundant bird species are more competent hosts for WNV, and predicted WNV R0 decreases with increasing species richness. Keystone species: We predicted that northern cardinals (Cardinalis cardinalis) are the most important hosts for amplifying WNV and that mourning doves (Zenaida macroura) are the most important sinks of infection across Texas.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite some data limitations, we demonstrate the power of phylogenetic imputation in predicting disease transmission in heterogeneous host communities. Our mechanistic modeling framework shows promise both for assisting future analyses on transmission and spillover in heterogeneous multispecies pathogen systems and for improving model transparency by clarifying assumptions, choices and shortcomings in complex ecological analyses.

The influence of weather and weather variability on mosquito abundance and infection with West Nile virus in Harris County, Texas, USA

Early warning systems for vector-borne diseases (VBDs) prediction are an ecological application where data from the interface of several environmental components can be used to predict future VBD transmission. In general, models for early warning systems only consider average environmental conditions ignoring variation in weather variables, despite the prediction from Schmalhausen's law about the importance of environmental variability for biological systems. We present results from a long-term mosquito surveillance program from Harris County, Texas, USA, where we use time series analysis techniques to study the abundance and West Nile virus (WNV) infection patterns in the local primary vector, Culex quinquefasciatus Say. We found that, as predicted by Schmalhausen's law, mosquito abundance was associated with the standard deviation and kurtosis of environmental variables. By contrast, WNV infection rates were associated with 8-month lagged temperature, suggesting environmental conditions during overwintering might be key for WNV amplification during summer outbreaks. Finally, model validation showed that seasonal autoregressive models successfully predicted mosquito WNV infection rates up to 2 months ahead, but did rather poorly at predicting mosquito abundance, a result that might reflect impacts of vector control for mosquito population reduction, geographic scale, and other artifacts generated by operational constraints of mosquito surveillance systems.

Environmental and Sociological Factors Associated with the Incidence of West Nile Virus Cases in the Northern San Joaquin Valley of California, 2011-2015

Environmental and socioeconomic risk factors associated with the incidence of human West Nile virus (WNV) cases were investigated in the Northern San Joaquin Valley region of California, a largely rural area. The study included human WNV cases from the years 2011 to 2015 in the three-county area of San Joaquin, Stanislaus, and Merced Counties, and used census tracts as the unit of analysis. Environmental factors included temperature, precipitation, and WNV-positive mosquito pools. Socioeconomic variables included age, housing age, housing foreclosures, median income, and ethnicity. Chi-square independence tests were used to examine whether each variable was associated with the incidence of WNV cases using data from the three counties combined. In addition, negative binomial regression revealed that the environmental factors of temperature and precipitation were the strongest predictors of the incidence of human WNV cases, while the socioeconomic factor of ethnicity was a significant predictor as well, and is a factor to consider in prevention efforts. Source reduction of mosquito breeding sites and targeted prevention and education remain key in reducing the risk associated with WNV.

Seasonal temperatures and hydrological conditions improve the prediction of West Nile virus infection rates in Culex mosquitoes and human case counts in New York and Connecticut

West Nile virus (WNV; Flaviviridae: Flavivirus) is a widely distributed arthropod-borne virus that has negatively affected human health and animal populations. WNV infection rates of mosquitoes and human cases have been shown to be correlated with climate. However, previous studies have been conducted at a variety of spatial and temporal scales, and the scale-dependence of these relationships has been understudied. We tested the hypothesis that climate variables are important to understand these relationships at all spatial scales. We analyzed the influence of climate on WNV infection rate of mosquitoes and number of human cases in New York and Connecticut using Random Forests, a machine learning technique. During model development, 66 climate-related variables based on temperature, precipitation and soil moisture were tested for predictive skill. We also included 20-21 non-climatic variables to account for known environmental effects (e.g., land cover and human population), surveillance related information (e.g., relative mosquito abundance), and to assess the potential explanatory power of other relevant factors (e.g., presence of wastewater treatment plants). Random forest models were used to identify the most important climate variables for explaining spatial-temporal variation in mosquito infection rates (abbreviated as MLE). The results of the cross-validation support our hypothesis that climate variables improve the predictive skill for MLE at county- and trap-scales and for human cases at the county-scale. Of the climate-related variables selected, mean minimum temperature from July-September was selected in all analyses, and soil moisture was selected for the mosquito county-scale analysis. Models demonstrated predictive skill, but still over- and under-estimated WNV MLE and numbers of human cases. Models at fine spatial scales had lower absolute errors but had greater errors relative to the mean infection rates.

Risk factors associated with sustained circulation of six zoonotic arboviruses: a systematic review for selection of surveillance sites in non-endemic areas

Arboviruses represent a significant burden to public health and local economies due to their ability to cause unpredictable and widespread epidemics. To maximize early detection of arbovirus emergence in non-endemic areas, surveillance efforts should target areas where circulation is most likely. However, identifying such hotspots of potential emergence is a major challenge. The ecological conditions leading to arbovirus outbreaks are shaped by complex interactions between the virus, its vertebrate hosts, arthropod vector, and abiotic environment that are often poorly understood. Here, we systematically review the ecological risk factors associated with the circulation of six arboviruses that are of considerable concern to northwestern Europe. These include three mosquito-borne viruses (Japanese encephalitis virus, West Nile virus, Rift Valley fever virus) and three tick-borne viruses (Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus, tick-borne encephalitis virus, and louping-ill virus). We consider both intrinsic (e.g. vector and reservoir host competence) and extrinsic (e.g. temperature, precipitation, host densities, land use) risk factors, identify current knowledge gaps, and discuss future directions. Our systematic review provides baseline information for the identification of regions and habitats that have suitable ecological conditions for endemic circulation, and therefore may be used to target early warning surveillance programs aimed at detecting multi-virus and/or arbovirus emergence.

Culex species diversity, susceptibility to insecticides and role as potential vector of Lymphatic filariasis in the city of Yaoundé, Cameroon

BACKGROUND

Culex species are widespread across Cameroon and responsible for high burden of nuisance in most urban settings. However, despite their high nuisance, they remain less studied compared to anophelines. The present study aimed to assess Culex species distribution, susceptibility to insecticide, bionomics and role in Lymphatic Filariasis (LF) transmission in the city of Yaoundé.

METHODS

Mosquito collections were conducted from March to December 2017 using Centre for Disease Control light traps (CDC-LT), human landing catches (HLC) and larval collections. Mosquitoes were identified using morphological identification keys. Mosquitoes from the Culex pipiens complex were further identified using Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) to assess the presence of sibling species. Bioassays were conducted with 2-5 day-old unfed females to assess mosquito susceptibility to DDT, permethrin, deltamethrin and bendiocarb following WHO guidelines. Dead, control and surviving mosquitoes from bioassays were screened by PCR to detect the presence of knockdown resistance (kdr) alleles. Pools of mosquitoes were examined by PCR to detect the presence of Wuchereria bancrofti.

RESULTS

A total of 197,956 mosquitoes belonging to thirteen species were collected. The density of mosquito collected varied according to the collection methods, districts and seasons. Culex quinquefasciatus emerged as the most abundant and the only species of the Culex pipiens complex in Yaoundé. Culex species were found breeding in different types of breeding sites including polluted and unpolluted sites. All Culex species including Cx antennatus, Cx duttoni, Cx perfuscus and Cx tigripes were found to be highly resistant to permethrin, deltamethrin and DDT. Culex quinquefasciatus was also found to be resistant to bendiocarb. A high frequency of the West Africa kdr allele was recorded in resistant Cx. quinquefasciatus. Out of the 247 pooled samples of 25 Culex spp. examined for the presence of Wuchereria bancrofti, none was found infected.

CONCLUSION

The study confirms the high adaptation of Culex species particularly Culex quinquefasciatus to the urban environment and no implication of this species in the transmission of LF in Yaoundé Cameroon. Culex species predominance in urban settings highlight potential transmission risk of West Nile and rift valley fever in Yaoundé.

Spatiotemporal Bayesian modeling of West Nile virus: Identifying risk of infection in mosquitoes with local-scale predictors

Monitoring and control of West Nile virus (WNV) presents a challenge to state and local vector control managers. Models of mosquito presence and viral incidence have revealed that variations in mosquito autecology and land use patterns introduce unique dynamics of disease at the scale of a county or city, and that effective prediction requires locally parameterized models. We applied Bayesian spatiotemporal modeling to West Nile surveillance data from 49 mosquito trap sites in Nassau County, New York, from 2001 to 2015 and evaluated environmental and sociological predictors of West Nile virus incidence in Culex pipiens-restuans. A Bayesian spike-and-slab variable selection algorithm was used to help select influential independent variables. This method can be used to identify locally-important predictors. The best model predicted West Nile positives well, with an Area Under Curve (AUC) of 0.83 on holdout data. The temporal trend was nonlinear and increased throughout the year. The spatial component identified increased West Nile incidence odds in the northwestern portion of the county, with lower odds in wetlands on the south shore of Long Island. High Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) areas, wetlands, and areas of high urban development had negative associations with WNV incidence. In this study we demonstrate a method for improving spatiotemporal models of West Nile virus incidence for decision making at the county and community scale, which empowers disease and vector control organizations to prioritize and evaluate prevention efforts.

Large-Scale Removal of Invasive Honeysuckle Decreases Mosquito and Avian Host Abundance

Invasive species rank second only to habitat destruction as a threat to native biodiversity. One consequence of biological invasions is altered risk of exposure to infectious diseases in human and animal populations. The distribution and prevalence of mosquito-borne diseases depend on the complex interactions between the vector, the pathogen, and the human or wildlife reservoir host. These interactions are highly susceptible to disturbance by invasive species, including terrestrial plants. We conducted a 2-year field experiment using a Before-After/Control-Impact design to examine how removal of invasive Amur honeysuckle (Lonicera maackii) in a forest fragment embedded within a residential neighborhood affects the abundance of mosquitoes, including two of the most important vectors of West Nile virus, Culex pipiens and Cx. restuans. We also assessed any potential changes in avian communities and local microclimate associated with Amur honeysuckle removal. We found that (1) removal of Amur honeysuckle reduces the abundance of both vector and non-vector mosquito species that commonly feed on human hosts, (2) the abundance and composition of avian hosts is altered by honeysuckle removal, and (3) areas invaded with honeysuckle support local microclimates that are favorable to mosquito survival. Collectively, our investigations demonstrate the role of a highly invasive understory shrub in determining the abundance and distribution of mosquitoes and suggest potential mechanisms underlying this pattern. Our results also give rise to additional questions regarding the general impact of invasive plants on vector-borne diseases and the spatial scale at which removal of invasive plants may be utilized to effect disease control.

Spatio-Temporal Distribution of Vector-Host Contact (VHC) Ratios and Ecological Niche Modeling of the West Nile Virus Mosquito Vector, Culex quinquefasciatus, in the City of New Orleans, LA, USA

The consistent sporadic transmission of West Nile Virus (WNV) in the city of New Orleans justifies the need for distribution risk maps highlighting human risk of mosquito bites. We modeled the influence of biophysical and socioeconomic metrics on the spatio-temporal distributions of presence/vector-host contact (VHC) ratios of WNV vector, Culex quinquefasciatus, within their flight range. Biophysical and socioeconomic data were extracted within 5-km buffer radii around sampling localities of gravid female Culex quinquefasciatus. The spatio-temporal correlations between VHC data and 33 variables, including climate, land use-land cover (LULC), socioeconomic, and land surface terrain were analyzed using stepwise linear regression models (RM). Using MaxEnt, we developed a distribution model using the correlated predicting variables. Only 12 factors showed significant correlations with spatial distribution of VHC ratios (R² = 81.62, p < 0.01). Non-forested wetland (NFWL), tree density (TD) and residential-urban (RU) settings demonstrated the strongest relationship. The VHC ratios showed monthly environmental resilience in terms of number and type of influential factors. The highest prediction power of RU and other urban and built up land (OUBL), was demonstrated during May-August. This association was positively correlated with the onset of the mosquito WNV infection rate during June. These findings were confirmed by the Jackknife analysis in MaxEnt and independently collected field validation points. The spatial and temporal correlations of VHC ratios and their response to the predicting variables are discussed.

Ecophysiological characterization and molecular differentiation of Culex pipiens forms (Diptera: Culicidae) in Tunisia

Background

The Culex pipiens complex (Diptera: Culicidae) includes the most widespread mosquito species in the world. Members of this complex are the primary enzootic and epidemic vectors of the West Nile virus (genus Flavivirus) in several countries. The two recognized forms of Cx. pipiens (Linnaeus, 1758) - pipiens and molestus- exhibit behavioral and physiological differences. Natural populations of Cx. pipiens were investigated in several sites in Tunisia to evaluate the ecophysiological and molecular characteristics of their forms.

Results

The analysis showed the sympatric presence of Cx. pipiens forms and hybrids in all studied sites. Of all the tested larvae of Cx. pipiens, 33.5% were identified as pipiens, 30.8% were identified as molestus, and 35.6% were identified as hybrids. The molestus and hybrid forms were positively correlated with urban habitats and belowground sites while the pipiens form was positively correlated with rural habitats and aboveground sites. Autogeny was expressed in all types of habitats and breeding sites. By contrast with the microsatellite CQ11, the two molecular markers, ace-2 and cytb, did not allow differentiation between the Cx. pipiens forms.

Conclusions

Our study shows the ubiquitous distribution and the plasticity of the different forms of Cx. pipiens in a wide range of ecological conditions. It suggests that the behavioral traits assigned to the forms of Cx. pipiens seem to be more flexible than previously assumed. Our analysis also proves that the microsatellite CQ11 remains an efficient tool for distinguishing between Cx. pipiens forms.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-017-2265-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Spatiotemporal modeling of ecological and sociological predictors of West Nile virus in Suffolk County, NY, mosquitoes

Suffolk County, New York, is a locus for West Nile virus (WNV) infection in the American northeast that includes the majority of Long Island to the east of New York City. The county has a system of light and gravid traps used for mosquito collection and disease monitoring. In order to identify predictors of WNV incidence in mosquitoes and predict future occurrence of WNV, we have developed a spatiotemporal Bayesian model, beginning with over 40 ecological, meteorological, and built-environment covariates. A mixed-effects model including spatially and temporally correlated errors was fit to WNV surveillance data from 2008 to 2014 using the R package “R-INLA,” which allows for Bayesian modeling using the stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) approach. The integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) SPDE allows for simultaneous fitting of a temporal parameter and a spatial covariance, while incorporating a variety of likelihood functions and running in R statistical software on a home computer. We found that land cover classified as open water and woody wetlands had a negative association with WNV incidence in mosquitoes, and the count of septic systems was associated with an increase in WNV. Mean temperature at two-week lag was associated with a strong positive impact, while mean precipitation at no lag and one-week lag was associated with positive and negative impacts on WNV, respectively. Incorporation of spatiotemporal factors resulted in a marked increase in model goodness-of-fit. The predictive power of the model was evaluated on 2015 surveillance results, where the best model achieved a sensitivity of 80.9% and a specificity of 77.0%. The spatial covariate was mapped across the county, identifying a gradient of WNV prevalence increasing from east to west. The Bayesian spatiotemporal model improves upon previous approaches, and we recommend the INLA SPDE methodology as an efficient way to develop robust models from surveillance data to develop and enhance monitoring and control programs. Our study confirms previously found associations between weather conditions and WNV and suggests that wetland cover has a mitigating effect on WNV infection in mosquitoes, while high septic system density is associated with an increase in WNV infection.

Seroprevalence of anti-WNV IgG antibodies and WNV-RNA in Egyptian blood donors

Transmission of West Nile virus (WNV) from asymptomatic donors has been reported during blood transfusions and organ transplants in humans. In this work, we aimed to investigate the presence of WNV antibody and WNV RNA in blood donors to evaluate the sero-prevalence of WNV and risk for WNV transmission. One hundred and sixty blood donors were tested for the presence of anti-WNV IgG by ELISA and for WNVs 1 and 2 RNA by RT-PCR. About 55% of blood donors were seropositive for WNV IgG antibodies, with significantly higher percentage of positive donors coming from rural areas and Nile Delta region compared to other donors. Using RT-PCR all donors were negative for viral RNA of both WNV lineages 1 and 2. High sero-prevelance of WNV antibodies in asymptomatic blood donors denotes endemicity of the WNV in Egypt and points to the importance of routine screening of blood donors for WNV RNA. On the other hand the absence of WNV RNA by RT-PCR indicates apparent low risk of the blood products as regards WNV transmission. Further studies into significance of WNV seronegativity among Rh negative donors and into the use of WNV seropositive blood in prophylaxis or treatment of WNV neuroinvasive disease are recommended. J. Med. Virol. 89:1323-1329, 2017. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Urban health and ecology: the promise of an avian biomonitoring tool

Urban-dwelling birds have the potential to serve as powerful biomonitors that reveal the impact of environmental change due to urbanization. Specifically, urban bird populations can be used to survey cities for factors that may pose both public and wildlife health concerns. Here, we review evidence supporting the use of avian biomonitors to identify threats associated with urbanization, including bioaccumulation of toxicants and the dysregulation of behavior and physiology by related stressors. In addition, we consider the use of birds to examine how factors in the urban environment can impact immunity against communicable pathogens. By studying the behavior, physiology, and ecology of urban bird populations, we can elucidate not only how avian populations are responding to environmental change, but also how unintended consequences of urbanization affect the well-being of human and non-human inhabitants.

Spatiotemporal modeling of ecological and sociological predictors of West Nile virus in Suffolk County, NY, mosquitoes

Suffolk County, New York, is a locus for West Nile virus (WNV) infection in the American northeast that includes the majority of Long Island to the east of New York City. The county has a system of light and gravid traps used for mosquito collection and disease monitoring. In order to identify predictors of WNV incidence in mosquitoes and predict future occurrence of WNV, we have developed a spatiotemporal Bayesian model, beginning with over 40 ecological, meteorological, and built-environment covariates. A mixed-effects model including spatially and temporally correlated errors was fit to WNV surveillance data from 2008 to 2014 using the R package "R-INLA," which allows for Bayesian modeling using the stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) approach. The integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) SPDE allows for simultaneous fitting of a temporal parameter and a spatial covariance, while incorporating a variety of likelihood functions and running in R statistical software on a home computer. We found that land cover classified as open water and woody wetlands had a negative association with WNV incidence in mosquitoes, and the count of septic systems was associated with an increase in WNV. Mean temperature at two-week lag was associated with a strong positive impact, while mean precipitation at no lag and one-week lag was associated with positive and negative impacts on WNV, respectively. Incorporation of spatiotemporal factors resulted in a marked increase in model goodness-of-fit. The predictive power of the model was evaluated on 2015 surveillance results, where the best model achieved a sensitivity of 80.9% and a specificity of 77.0%. The spatial covariate was mapped across the county, identifying a gradient of WNV prevalence increasing from east to west. The Bayesian spatiotemporal model improves upon previous approaches, and we recommend the INLA SPDE methodology as an efficient way to develop robust models from surveillance data to develop and enhance monitoring and control programs. Our study confirms previously found associations between weather conditions and WNV and suggests that wetland cover has a mitigating effect on WNV infection in mosquitoes, while high septic system density is associated with an increase in WNV infection.

Do vegetated rooftops attract more mosquitoes? Monitoring disease vector abundance on urban green roofs

Green roof, an increasingly common constituent of urban green infrastructure, can provide multiple ecosystem services and mitigate climate-change and urban-heat-island challenges. Its adoption has been beset by a longstanding preconception of attracting urban pests like mosquitoes. As more cities may become vulnerable to emerging and re-emerging mosquito-borne infectious diseases, the knowledge gap needs to be filled. This study gauges the habitat preference of vector mosquitoes for extensive green roofs vis-à-vis positive and negative control sites in an urban setting. Seven sites in a university campus were selected to represent three experimental treatments: green roofs (GR), ground-level blue-green spaces as positive controls (PC), and bare roofs as negative controls (NC). Mosquito-trapping devices were deployed for a year from March 2015 to 2016. Human-biting mosquito species known to transmit infectious diseases in the region were identified and recorded as target species. Generalized linear models evaluated the effects of site type, season, and weather on vector-mosquito abundance. Our model revealed site type as a significant predictor of vector mosquito abundance, with considerably more vector mosquitoes captured in PC than in GR and NC. Vector abundance was higher in NC than in GR, attributed to the occasional presence of water pools in depressions of roofing membrane after rainfall. Our data also demonstrated seasonal differences in abundance. Weather variables were evaluated to assess human-vector contact risks under different weather conditions. Culex quinquefasciatus, a competent vector of diseases including lymphatic filariasis and West Nile fever, could be the most adaptable species. Our analysis demonstrates that green roofs are not particularly preferred by local vector mosquitoes compared to bare roofs and other urban spaces in a humid subtropical setting. The findings call for a better understanding of vector ecology in diverse urban landscapes to improve disease control efficacy amidst surging urbanization and changing climate.

Climatic, ecological, and socioeconomic factors associated with West Nile virus incidence in Atlanta, Georgia, U.S.A

The integrated effects of the many risk factors associated with West Nile virus (WNV) incidence are complex and not well understood. We studied an array of risk factors in and around Atlanta, GA, that have been shown to be linked with WNV in other locations. This array was comprehensive and included climate and meteorological metrics, vegetation characteristics, land use / land cover analyses, and socioeconomic factors. Data on mosquito abundance and WNV mosquito infection rates were obtained for 58 sites and covered 2009-2011, a period following the combined storm water - sewer overflow remediation in that city. Risk factors were compared to mosquito abundance and the WNV vector index (VI) using regression analyses individually and in combination. Lagged climate variables, including soil moisture and temperature, were significantly correlated (positively) with vector index as were forest patch size and percent pine composition of patches (both negatively). Socioeconomic factors that were most highly correlated (positively) with the VI included the proportion of low income households and homes built before 1960 and housing density. The model selected through stepwise regression that related risk factors to the VI included (in the order of decreasing influence) proportion of houses built before 1960, percent of pine in patches, and proportion of low income households.

Ecological niche modeling of mosquito vectors of West Nile virus in St. John's County, Florida, USA

Background

The lack of available vaccines and consistent sporadic transmission of WNV justify the need for mosquito vector control and prediction of their geographic distribution. However, the distribution of WNV transmission is dependent on the mosquito vector and the ecological requirements, which vary from one place to another.

Methods

Presence/density data of two WNV mosquito vectors, Culex nigripalpus and Cx. quinquefasciatus, was extracted within 5 km buffer zones around seropositive records of sentinel chickens in order to delineate their predicting variables and model the habitat suitability of probable infective mosquito using MaxEnt software. Different correlations between density data of the extracted mosquito vectors and 27 climate, land use-land cover, and land surface terrain variables were analyzed using linear regression analysis. Accordingly, the correlated predicting variables were used in building up habitat suitability model for the occurrence records of both mosquito vectors using MaxEnt.

Results

The density of both WNV mosquito vectors showed variation in their ecological requirements. Eight predicting variables, out of 27, had significant influence on density of Cx. nigripalpus. Precipitation of driest months was shown to be the best predicting variable for the density of this vector (R² = 41.70). Whereas, two variables were proven to predict the distribution of Cx. quinquefasciatus density. Vegetation showed the maximum predicting gain to the density of this mosquito vector (R² = 15.74), where nestling birds, in particular exotics, are found. Moreover, Jackknife analysis in MaxEnt demonstrated that urbanization and vegetation data layers significantly contribute in predicting habitat suitability of Cx. nigripalpus and Cx. quinquefasciatus occurrence, respectively, which justifies the contribution of the former in urban and the latter in epizootic transmission cycles of WNV. In addition, habitat suitability risk maps were produced for both vectors in response to their predicting variables.

Conclusions

For the first time in the study area, a quantitative relationship between 27 predicting variables and two WNV mosquito vectors within their foraging habitats was highlighted at the local scale. Accordingly, the predicting variables were used to produce a practical distribution map of probable infective mosquito vectors. This substantially helps in determining where suitable habitats are found. This will potentially help in designing target surveillance and control programmes, saving money, time and man-power. However, the suitability risk maps should be updated when serological and entomological data updates are available.

Temporal and Spatial Variability of Entomological Risk Indices for West Nile Virus Infection in Northern Colorado: 2006-2013

West Nile virus (WNV) is enzootic in northern Colorado. Annual surveillance activities in Fort Collins, CO, include collecting female Culex mosquitoes and testing them for the presence of WNV RNA in order to calculate 1) Culex female abundance, 2) WNV infection rate, and 3) the vector index (VI). These entomological risk indices inform public policy regarding the need for emergency adulticiding. Currently, these are calculated on a city-wide basis. In this study, we present descriptive data from historical surveillance records spanning 2006-2013 to discern seasonal and yearly patterns of entomological risk for WNV infection. Also, we retrospectively test the hypothesis that entomological risk is correlated with human transmission risk and is heterogeneous within the City of Fort Collins. Four logistically relevant zones within the city were established and used to test this hypothesis. Zones in the eastern portion of the city consistently had significantly higher Culex abundance and VI compared with zones in the west, leading to higher entomological risk indicators for human WNV infection in the east. Moreover, the relative risk of a reported human case of WNV infection was significantly higher in the eastern zones of the city. Our results suggest that a more spatially targeted WNV management program may better mitigate human risk for WNV infection in Fort Collins, and possibly other cities where transmission is enzootic, while at the same time reducing pesticide use.

Larval development of Culex quinquefasciatus in water with low to moderate

Population growth and urbanization have increased the potential habitats, and consequently the abundance of Culex quinquefasciatus, the southern house mosquito, a vector of West Nile Virus in urban areas. Water quality is critical in larval habitat distribution and in providing microbial food resources for larvae. A mesocosm experiment was designed to demonstrate which specific components of water chemistry are conducive to larval Culex mosquitoes. Dose-response relationships between larval development and NO3 , NH4 , and PO4 concentrations in stream water were developed through this experiment to describe the isolated effects of each nutrient on pre-adult development. The emergence pattern of Culex mosquitoes was found to be strongly related to certain nutrients, and results showed that breeding sites with higher PO4 or NO3 concentrations had higher larval survival rates. High NO3 concentrations favor the development of male mosquitoes and suppress the development of female mosquitoes, but those adult females that do emerge develop faster in containers with high NO3 levels compared to the reference group. The addition of PO4 in the absence of nitrogen sources to the larval habitat slowed larval development, however, it took fewer days for larvae to reach the pupal stage in containers with combinations of NO3 and PO4 or NH4 and PO4 nutrients. Results from this study may bolster efforts to control WNV in urban landscapes by exploring water quality conditions of Culex larval habitats that produce adult mosquitoes.

Seroprevalence of West Nile Virus specific IgG and IgM antibodies in North-Western and Western provinces of Zambia

BACKGROUND

West Nile Virus (WNV) infection has been reported worldwide, including in Africa but its existence in Zambia is unknown. Symptoms for the virus include headache, myalgia, arthralgia and rash.

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to determine the seroprevalence of WNV and its correlates.

METHODS

A cross sectional study was conducted in North-Western and Western provinces of Zambia. Samples were subjected to IgG and IgM antibodies testing against WNV. Logistic regression analyses were conducted to determine magnitudes of association.

RESULTS

A total of 3,625 of persons participated in the survey out of which 10.3% had WNV infection. Farmers were 20% (AOR=0.80; 95% CI [0.64, 0.99]) less likely to have infection compared to students. Meanwhile participants who lived in grass roofed houses were 2.97 (AOR=2.97; 95% CI [1.81, 4.88]) times more likely to be infected than those who lived in asbestos roofed houses. IRS was associated with reduced risk of infection (AOR=0.81; 95% CI [0.69, 0.94]). Travelling to Angola was associated with the infection [AOR=1.40; 95% CI [1.09, 1.81].

CONCLUSION

Spraying houses with insecticide residual spray would minimize mosquito-man contact. Furthermore, surveillance at the border with Angola should be enhanced in order to reduce importation of the virus into the country.

Does host receptivity or host exposure drives dynamics of infectious diseases? The case of West Nile Virus in wild birds

Infection is a complex biological process involving reciprocally both the intensity of host exposure to a pathogen as well as the host intrinsic "receptivity", or permissiveness to infection. Disentangling their respective contributions is currently seen as a fundamental gap in our knowledge. Here, we take the advantage of a rare semi-natural experiment context provided by the emergence of the West Nile Virus (WNV) in North America. Focusing on the pathogen emergence period, we combine datasets from (i) wild birds exposed to WNV in an urban zoo to evaluate the species intrinsic receptivity to WNV infection in an environment where exposure to WNV vectors can be assumed to be relatively homogenous for all captive species, and (ii) from free-ranging birds in their natural habitat where species ecological traits is expected to influence their exposure to WNV vectors. We show that ecological trait and intrinsic receptivity to infection both contribute similarly to the species variation in WNV seroprevalence, but considering only one of them can lead to erroneous conclusions. We then argue that degree of pathogen host specialization could be a fundamental factor for the respective contribution of species exposure and receptivity for numerous pathogens.

Identifying the environmental conditions favouring West Nile Virus outbreaks in Europe

West Nile Virus (WNV) is a globally important mosquito borne virus, with significant implications for human and animal health. The emergence and spread of new lineages, and increased pathogenicity, is the cause of escalating public health concern. Pinpointing the environmental conditions that favour WNV circulation and transmission to humans is challenging, due both to the complexity of its biological cycle, and the under-diagnosis and reporting of epidemiological data. Here, we used remote sensing and GIS to enable collation of multiple types of environmental data over a continental spatial scale, in order to model annual West Nile Fever (WNF) incidence across Europe and neighbouring countries. Multi-model selection and inference were used to gain a consensus from multiple linear mixed models. Climate and landscape were key predictors of WNF outbreaks (specifically, high precipitation in late winter/early spring, high summer temperatures, summer drought, occurrence of irrigated croplands and highly fragmented forests). Identification of the environmental conditions associated with WNF outbreaks is key to enabling public health bodies to properly focus surveillance and mitigation of West Nile virus impact, but more work needs to be done to enable accurate predictions of WNF risk.

Meteorological conditions associated with increased incidence of West Nile virus disease in the United States, 2004-2012

West Nile virus (WNV) is a leading cause of mosquito-borne disease in the United States. Annual seasonal outbreaks vary in size and location. Predicting where and when higher than normal WNV transmission will occur can help direct limited public health resources. We developed models for the contiguous United States to identify meteorological anomalies associated with above average incidence of WNV neuroinvasive disease from 2004 to 2012. We used county-level WNV data reported to ArboNET and meteorological data from the North American Land Data Assimilation System. As a result of geographic differences in WNV transmission, we divided the United States into East and West, and 10 climate regions. Above average annual temperature was associated with increased likelihood of higher than normal WNV disease incidence, nationally and in most regions. Lower than average annual total precipitation was associated with higher disease incidence in the eastern United States, but the opposite was true in most western regions. Although multiple factors influence WNV transmission, these findings show that anomalies in temperature and precipitation are associated with above average WNV disease incidence. Readily accessible meteorological data may be used to develop predictive models to forecast geographic areas with elevated WNV disease risk before the coming season.

A continental risk assessment of West Nile virus under climate change

Since first introduced to North America in 1999, West Nile virus (WNV) has spread rapidly across the continent, threatening wildlife populations and posing serious health risks to humans. While WNV incidence has been linked to environmental factors, particularly temperature and rainfall, little is known about how future climate change may affect the spread of the disease. Using available data on WNV infections in vectors and hosts collected from 2003-2011 and using a suite of 10 species distribution models, weighted according to their predictive performance, we modeled the incidence of WNV under current climate conditions at a continental scale. Models were found to accurately predict spatial patterns of WNV that were then used to examine how future climate may affect the spread of the disease. Predictions were accurate for cases of human WNV infection in the following year (2012), with areas reporting infections having significantly higher probability of presence as predicted by our models. Projected geographic distributions of WNV in North America under future climate for 2050 and 2080 show an expansion of suitable climate for the disease, driven by warmer temperatures and lower annual precipitation that will result in the exposure of new and naïve host populations to the virus with potentially serious consequences. Our risk assessment identifies current and future hotspots of West Nile virus where mitigation efforts should be focused and presents an important new approach for monitoring vector-borne disease under climate change.

Towards an early warning system for forecasting human west nile virus incidence

We have identified environmental and demographic variables, available in January, that predict the relative magnitude and spatial distribution of West Nile virus (WNV) for the following summer. The yearly magnitude and spatial distribution for WNV incidence in humans in the United States (US) have varied wildly in the past decade. Mosquito control measures are expensive and having better estimates of the expected relative size of a future WNV outbreak can help in planning for the mitigation efforts and costs. West Nile virus is spread primarily between mosquitoes and birds; humans are an incidental host. Previous efforts have demonstrated a strong correlation between environmental factors and the incidence of WNV. A predictive model for human cases must include both the environmental factors for the mosquito-bird epidemic and an anthropological model for the risk of humans being bitten by a mosquito. Using weather data and demographic data available in January for every county in the US, we use logistic regression analysis to predict the probability that the county will have at least one WNV case the following summer. We validate our approach and the spatial and temporal WNV incidence in the US from 2005 to 2013. The methodology was applied to forecast the 2014 WNV incidence in late January 2014. We find the most significant predictors for a county to have a case of WNV to be the mean minimum temperature in January, the deviation of this minimum temperature from the expected minimum temperature, the total population of the county, publicly available samples of local bird populations, and if the county had a case of WNV the previous year.

Land use patterns and the risk of West Nile virus transmission in central Illinois

Understanding how human land use patterns influence mosquito ecology and the risk of mosquito-borne pathogens is critical for the development of disease management strategies. We examined how different environments influenced mosquito species composition, abundance, and West Nile virus (WNV) infection rates in central Illinois. Using a combination of gravid traps and CDC light traps, adult mosquitoes were collected every other week from June 24 to September 16, 2012, in four major land use categories-row crops, prairies, forest fragments, and residential neighborhoods. The mosquitoes were identified to species morphologically, and pools of pure and mixed Culex mosquitoes (primarily Culex pipiens and Culex restuans) were tested for WNV-RNA by qRT-PCR. Mosquito species diversity was significantly higher in forest habitats compared to residential, agricultural, and prairie land use categories. All the four landscape types were equally important habitats for WNV vectors Cx. pipiens and Cx. restuans, contrary to previous findings that these species principally inhabit the residential areas. WNV-infected mosquito pools were observed in all land use types, and the infection rates overlapped among land use categories. Although our findings support the importance of residential habitats for WNV transmission to humans, they also establish that prairie, row crops, and wood lots are potentially important refuges for enzootic transmission. This is particularly important in urban ecosystems where these land use categories are small, interspersed fragments serving as potential refuge sites during periods of low rainfall.

Towards an early warning system for forecasting human west nile virus incidence

We have identified environmental and demographic variables, available in January, that predict the relative magnitude and spatial distribution of West Nile virus (WNV) for the following summer. The yearly magnitude and spatial distribution for WNV incidence in humans in the United States (US) have varied wildly in the past decade. Mosquito control measures are expensive and having better estimates of the expected relative size of a future WNV outbreak can help in planning for the mitigation efforts and costs. West Nile virus is spread primarily between mosquitoes and birds; humans are an incidental host. Previous efforts have demonstrated a strong correlation between environmental factors and the incidence of WNV. A predictive model for human cases must include both the environmental factors for the mosquito-bird epidemic and an anthropological model for the risk of humans being bitten by a mosquito. Using weather data and demographic data available in January for every county in the US, we use logistic regression analysis to predict the probability that the county will have at least one WNV case the following summer. We validate our approach and the spatial and temporal WNV incidence in the US from 2005 to 2013. The methodology was applied to forecast the 2014 WNV incidence in late January 2014. We find the most significant predictors for a county to have a case of WNV to be the mean minimum temperature in January, the deviation of this minimum temperature from the expected minimum temperature, the total population of the county, publicly available samples of local bird populations, and if the county had a case of WNV the previous year.