Translating Sepsis-3 Criteria in Children: Prognostic Accuracy of Age-Adjusted Quick SOFA Score in Children Visiting the Emergency Department With Suspected Bacterial Infection

Development of a New Screening Tool for Pediatric Septic Shock

STUDY OBJECTIVE

Existing screening tools for sepsis in children are limited by suboptimal sensitivity. Our objective was to develop a new, more sensitive screening tool for pediatric septic shock by enhancing 2 aspects of the 4-point Liverpool quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (LqSOFA) tool.

METHODS

We performed a secondary analysis of a cohort of children (1 month to 18 years) who presented to a pediatric emergency department (ED) with suspected infection over a 10-year period. Septic shock was defined as intravenous vasoactive infusion within 24-hours of arrival for children with suspected infection and intravenous antibiotics administered. We developed the 4-point quick Pediatric Septic Shock Screening Score (qPS4) by making 2 changes to the 4-point LqSOFA: (1) the pulse rate parameter was replaced with the recently derived Temperature and Age-adjusted Mean Shock Index and (2) standard respiratory rate cutoffs for tachypnea were replaced by cutoffs derived empirically from the study cohort. The other 2 LqSOFA criteria were unchanged (abnormal mentation and capillary refill ≥3 seconds). We defined a positive qPS4 as ≥2 criteria (consistent with LqSOFA). We used the training cohort from the parent study to derive cutoffs for respiratory rate and the validation cohort to compare the qPS4 with LqSOFA and qSOFA.

RESULTS

Among the 47,231 encounters in the validation cohort from the parent study, with median age of 4.5 years, qPS4 had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for septic shock of 0.94 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.92 to 0.96). qPS4 ≥2 had a sensitivity of 89.7% (95% CI 84.9% to 94.5%), and a specificity of 92.2% (95% CI 92.0% to 92.5%) for septic shock. In comparison, the LqSOFA achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.86 (95% CI 0.82 to 0.89), a sensitivity of 56.1% (95% CI 48.3% to 63.9%), and a specificity of 96.8% (95% CI 96.6% to 96.9%). The median time from first positive qPS4 to initiation of an intravenous vasoactive infusion was 2.5 hours (IQR 0.9 to 6.1) compared to 0.7 hours (IQR 0.0 to 4.5) for LqSOFA.

CONCLUSION

The qPS4, with 2 enhancements to the LqSOFA, demonstrated overall improved sensitivity and specificity for pediatric septic shock.

Sepsis epidemiology in Australan and New Zealand children (SENTINEL): protocol for a multicountry prospective observational study

INTRODUCTION

Sepsis affects 25.2 million children per year globally and causes 3.4 million deaths, with an annual cost of hospitalisation in the USA of US$7.3 billion. Despite being common, severe and expensive, therapies and outcomes from sepsis have not substantially changed in decades. Variable case definitions, lack of a reference standard for diagnosis and broad spectrum of disease hamper efforts to evaluate therapies that may improve sepsis outcomes. This landscape analysis of community-acquired childhood sepsis in Australia and New Zealand will characterise the burden of disease, including incidence, severity, outcomes and cost. Sepsis diagnostic criteria and risk stratification tools will be prospectively evaluated. Sepsis therapies, quality of care, parental awareness and understanding of sepsis and parent-reported outcome measures will be described. Understanding these aspects of sepsis care is fundamental for the design and conduct of interventional trials to improve childhood sepsis outcomes.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This prospective observational study will include children up to 18 years of age presenting to 12 emergency departments with suspected sepsis within the Paediatric Research in Emergency Departments International Collaborative network in Australia and New Zealand. Presenting characteristics, management and outcomes will be collected. These will include vital signs, serum biomarkers, clinician assessment of severity of disease, intravenous fluid administration for the first 24 hours of hospitalisation, organ support therapies delivered, antimicrobial use, microbiological diagnoses, hospital and intensive care unit length-of-stay, mortality censored at hospital discharge or 30 days from enrolment (whichever comes first) and parent-reported outcomes 90 days from enrolment. We will use these data to determine sepsis epidemiology based on existing and novel diagnostic criteria. We will also validate existing and novel sepsis risk stratification criteria, characterise antimicrobial stewardship, guideline adherence, cost and report parental awareness and understanding of sepsis and parent-reported outcome measures.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethics approval was received from the Royal Children's Hospital of Melbourne, Australia Human Research Ethics Committee (HREC/69948/RCHM-2021). This included incorporated informed consent for follow-up. The findings will be disseminated in a peer-reviewed journal and at academic conferences.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ACTRN12621000920897; Pre-results.

External validation of clinical severity scores to guide referral of paediatric acute respiratory infections in resource-limited primary care settings

Accurate and reliable guidelines for referral of children from resource-limited primary care settings are lacking. We identified three practicable paediatric severity scores (the Liverpool quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (LqSOFA), the quick Pediatric Logistic Organ Dysfunction-2, and the modified Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome) and externally validated their performance in young children presenting with acute respiratory infections (ARIs) to a primary care clinic located within a refugee camp on the Thailand-Myanmar border. This secondary analysis of data from a longitudinal birth cohort study consisted of 3010 ARI presentations in children aged ≤ 24 months. The primary outcome was receipt of supplemental oxygen. We externally validated the discrimination, calibration, and net-benefit of the scores, and quantified gains in performance that might be expected if they were deployed as simple clinical prediction models, and updated to include nutritional status and respiratory distress. 104/3,010 (3.5%) presentations met the primary outcome. The LqSOFA score demonstrated the best discrimination (AUC 0.84; 95% CI 0.79-0.89) and achieved a sensitivity and specificity > 0.80. Converting the scores into clinical prediction models improved performance, resulting in ~ 20% fewer unnecessary referrals and ~ 30-50% fewer children incorrectly managed in the community. The LqSOFA score is a promising triage tool for young children presenting with ARIs in resource-limited primary care settings. Where feasible, deploying the score as a simple clinical prediction model might enable more accurate and nuanced risk stratification, increasing applicability across a wider range of contexts.

Timing of antibiotics in febrile children meeting sepsis criteria at a paediatric emergency department

OBJECTIVE

Delay in antibiotic administration in paediatric sepsis is associated with increased mortality and prolonged organ dysfunction. This pre-intervention study evaluated performance in paediatric sepsis management.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study of febrile children admitted through the ED at The Children's Hospital at Westmead, Sydney, between 1 May and 31 July 2017. Participants were children aged 29 days to 60 months excluding children with simple febrile seizures, neonates and children who had received intravenous antibiotics elsewhere. We assessed the timing of antibiotic administration in children meeting local sepsis guidelines. We conducted a survey of clinicians in ED in 2018 to describe contributing factors.

RESULTS

There were 160 febrile children admitted and 144 presentations were included in the analysis. Male 53% (n = 76); median age 20.1 months (interquartile range [IQR] 3.9-37 months). Thirty-seven (26%) febrile children met local sepsis criteria. The median time from triage to first dose of intravenous antibiotic was 109 min (IQR 62-183 min). Delay (>60 min) occurred in 26 (76%) children. Reported reasons contributing to delay included high patient load, long waiting times, difficult intravenous access, delayed prescribing, inadequate staffing and difficulty distinguishing between a viral infection and serious bacterial infection.

CONCLUSION

There was frequent delay in administering antibiotics in children meeting local sepsis criteria, more commonly in young infants. Reasons contributing to delay were specific to young children along with departmental factors that will require addressing through targeted quality improvement interventions.

Lactate as a Screening Tool for Critical Illness in a Pediatric Emergency Department

OBJECTIVES

Lactate has in some pediatric emergency departments (PEDs) gained acceptance as a screening tool for critical illness, with cut-off values of 2.0 to 2.5 mmol/L. We aimed to investigate if lactate could predict the need of acute resuscitation in patients in a PED.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This retrospective observational cohort study included patients aged 0 to 17 years admitted to the PED at Copenhagen University Hospital in Denmark from January 1, 2019 to January 1, 2021. Patients were included if they had lactate measured as part of their routine blood sampling because of acute PED evaluation. Area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) was calculated to assess the ability of lactate to predict the need of acute resuscitation. In patients without need of acute resuscitation, we calculated the lactate upper limit as the 95th percentile, and significant predictors were included in a multiple linear regression model.

RESULTS

A total of 1355 children were included. Fourteen (1%) children with a need of acute resuscitation had a median lactate of 1.7 mmol/L (interquartile range, 1.4-2.3) versus 1.6 mmol/L (interquartile range, 1.3-2.1) in children without need of resuscitation ( P > 0.05). The AUC for lactate to predict acute resuscitation was 0.56 (95% confidence interval, 0.54-0.59). In children without need of acute resuscitation, the 95th percentile of lactate was 3.2 mmol/L, and 392 (29.8%) had lactate greater than 2.0 mmol/L. Increasing age and venous sampling were associated with lower lactate. Lactate was not associated with sex, pediatric early warning score, or duration of hospital admission. The 95th percentile of lactate after inhaled beta-2-agonists was 5.0 mmol/L.

CONCLUSIONS

In children evaluated in a PED, lactate achieved a low AUC, suggesting a poor ability of predicting acute resuscitation. In children without need of acute resuscitation, the 95th percentile for lactate was 3.2 mmol/L, higher than the generally accepted cut-off values. This is important to recognize to avoid concern in otherwise clinically stable children. Our data did not support the use of lactate as a screening tool for early recognition of critical illness in a PED.

Sepsis Prognostic Scores Accuracy in Predicting Adverse Outcomes in Children With Sepsis Admitted to the Pediatric Intensive Care Unit From the Emergency Department: A 10-Year Single-Center Experience

OBJECTIVE

To compare the performance of several prognostic scores calculated in the first 24 hours of admission (day 1) in predicting mortality and morbidity among critically ill children with sepsis presenting to the pediatric emergency department (PED) and then admitted to the pediatric intensive care unit (PICU).

METHODS

Single-center, retrospective cohort study in children with a diagnosis of sepsis visiting the PED and then admitted to the PICU from January 1, 2010 to December 31, 2019. Sepsis organ dysfunction scores-pediatric Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (pSOFA) (Schlapbach, Matics, Shime), quickSOFA, quickSOFA-L, Pediatric Logistic Organ Dysfunction (PELOD)-2, quickPELOD-2, and Pediatric Multiple Organ Dysfunction score-were calculated during the first 24 hours of admission (day 1) and their performance compared with systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) and severe sepsis-International Consensus Conference on Pediatric Sepsis(ICCPS)-derived criteria-using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Primary outcome was PICU mortality. Secondary outcomes were: a composite of death and new disability (ie, change from baseline Pediatric Overall Performance Category score ≥1); prolonged PICU length of stay (>5 d); prolonged invasive mechanical ventilation (MV) (>3 d).

RESULTS

Among 60 patients with sepsis, 4 (6.7%) died, 7 (11.7%) developed new disability, 26 (43.3%) experienced prolonged length of stay, and 21 (35%) prolonged invasive MV. The prognostic ability in mortality discrimination was significantly higher for organ dysfunction scores, with PELOD-2 showing the best performance (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.924; 95% confidence interval, 0.837-1.000), significantly better than SIRS 3 criteria (0.924 vs 0.509, P = 0.009), SIRS 4 criteria (0.924 vs 0.509, P < 0.001), and severe sepsis (0.924 vs 0.527, P < 0.001). Among secondary outcomes, PELOD-2 performed significantly better than SIRS criteria and severe sepsis to predict prolonged duration of invasive MV, whereas better than severe sepsis to predict "poor outcome" (mortality or new disability).

CONCLUSIONS

Day 1 organ dysfunction scores performed better in predicting mortality and morbidity outcomes than ICCPS-derived criteria. The PELOD-2 was the organ dysfunction score with the best performance for all outcomes.

Prognostic accuracy of SOFA and qSOFA for mortality among children with infection: a meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Age-adjusted Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) and age-adjusted quick SOFA (qSOFA) scores have been developed to predict poor outcomes in children with infection. We investigated the prognostic performance of age-adjusted SOFA and age-adjusted qSOFA scores and compared them with the systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) criteria for predicting mortality in children with infection.

METHODS

A bivariate random-effects regression model was used for synthesis of diagnostic test data.

RESULTS

A total of 14 studies invoing 70,194 participants were included. The pooled sensitivity for age-adjusted SOFA, age-adjusted qSOFA, and SIRS were 0.82 (95% CI, 0.74-0.88), 0.46 (95% CI, 0.22-0.71), and 0.79 (95% CI, 0.66-0.88), respectively. The pooled specificity for age-adjusted SOFA, age-adjusted qSOFA, and SIRS were 0.62 (95% CI, 0.45-0.77), 0.90 (95% CI, 0.66-0.98), and 0.39 (95% CI, 0.26-0.54), respectively. The area under the summary receiver operating characteristic curve (AUSROC) for age-adjusted SOFA, age-adjusted qSOFA, and SIRS were 0.82 (95% CI, 0.79-0.85), 0.66 (95% CI, 0.62-0.70), and 0.64 (95% CI, 0.60-0.68), respectively. Different baseline populations, different SOFA adaptation methods and different cut-offs used for age-adjusted SOFA may be potential sources of heterogeneity.

CONCLUSIONS

Age adjusted SOFA score is a useful tool for predicting mortality in children with sepsis/suspected sepsis.

IMPACT

First study to investigate the prognostic performance of age-adjusted sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) and age adjusted quick SOFA (qSOFA) scores in comparison to the systemic inflammatory response criteria (SIRS) for the prediction of mortality in children with sepsis. The age-adjusted SOFA score predicts poor outcomes with high sensitivity in children with sepsis Low sensitivity limits the utility of age-adjusted qSOFA as a simple predictive tool for adverse outcomes. Developing another enhanced or modified bedside tool with higher sensitivity may be necessary.

Computerized Clinical Decision Support Systems for the Early Detection of Sepsis Among Pediatric, Neonatal, and Maternal Inpatients: Scoping Review

BACKGROUND

Sepsis is a severe condition associated with extensive morbidity and mortality worldwide. Pediatric, neonatal, and maternal patients represent a considerable proportion of the sepsis burden. Identifying sepsis cases as early as possible is a key pillar of sepsis management and has prompted the development of sepsis identification rules and algorithms that are embedded in computerized clinical decision support (CCDS) systems.

OBJECTIVE

This scoping review aimed to systematically describe studies reporting on the use and evaluation of CCDS systems for the early detection of pediatric, neonatal, and maternal inpatients at risk of sepsis.

METHODS

MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, Cochrane, Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature (LILACS), Scopus, Web of Science, OpenGrey, ClinicalTrials.gov, and ProQuest Dissertations and Theses Global (PQDT) were searched by using a search strategy that incorporated terms for sepsis, clinical decision support, and early detection. Title, abstract, and full-text screening was performed by 2 independent reviewers, who consulted a third reviewer as needed. One reviewer performed data charting with a sample of data. This was checked by a second reviewer and via discussions with the review team, as necessary.

RESULTS

A total of 33 studies were included in this review-13 (39%) pediatric studies, 18 (55%) neonatal studies, and 2 (6%) maternal studies. All studies were published after 2011, and 27 (82%) were published from 2017 onward. The most common outcome investigated in pediatric studies was the accuracy of sepsis identification (9/13, 69%). Pediatric CCDS systems used different combinations of 18 diverse clinical criteria to detect sepsis across the 13 identified studies. In neonatal studies, 78% (14/18) of the studies investigated the Kaiser Permanente early-onset sepsis risk calculator. All studies investigated sepsis treatment and management outcomes, with 83% (15/18) reporting on antibiotics-related outcomes. Usability and cost-related outcomes were each reported in only 2 (6%) of the 31 pediatric or neonatal studies. Both studies on maternal populations were short abstracts.

CONCLUSIONS

This review found limited research investigating CCDS systems to support the early detection of sepsis among pediatric, neonatal, and maternal patients, despite the high burden of sepsis in these vulnerable populations. We have highlighted the need for a consensus definition for pediatric and neonatal sepsis and the study of usability and cost-related outcomes as critical areas for future research.

INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID)

RR2-10.2196/24899.

Prevalence and predictors of poor outcome in children with febrile neutropaenia presenting to the emergency department

OBJECTIVE

Children with acquired neutropaenia due to cancer chemotherapy are at high risk of severe infection. The present study aims to describe the prevalence and predictors of poor outcomes in children with febrile neutropaenia (FN).

METHODS

This is a multicentre, prospective observational study in tertiary Australian EDs. Cancer patients with FN were included. Fever was defined as a single temperature ≥38°C, and neutropaenia was defined as an absolute neutrophil count <1000/mm³ . The primary outcome was the ICU admission for organ support therapy (inotropic support, mechanical ventilation, renal replacement therapy, extracorporeal life support). Secondary outcomes were: ICU admission, ICU length of stay (LOS) ≥3 days, proven or probable bacterial infection, hospital LOS ≥7 days and 28-day mortality. Initial vital signs, biomarkers (including lactate) and clinical sepsis scores, including Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome, quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment and quick Paediatric Logistic Organ Dysfunction-2 were evaluated as predictors of poor outcomes.

RESULTS

Between December 2016 and January 2018, 2124 episodes of fever in children with cancer were screened, 547 episodes in 334 children met inclusion criteria. Four episodes resulted in ICU admission for organ support therapy, nine episodes required ICU admission, ICU LOS was ≥3 days in four, hospital LOS was ≥7 days in 153 and two patients died within 28 days. Vital signs, blood tests and clinical sepsis scores, including Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome, quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment and quick Paediatric Logistic Organ Dysfunction-2, performed poorly as predictors of these outcomes (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve <0.6).

CONCLUSIONS

Very few patients with FN required ICU-level care. Vital signs, biomarkers and clinical sepsis scores for the prediction of poor outcomes are of limited utility in children with FN.

Accuracy of SIRS, age-adapted pSOFA, and quick SOFA scoring systems for predicting outcomes in paediatric patients with sepsis: a meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Sepsis is the leading cause of mortality in children. Several scoring systems are used to predict outcome and mortality for pediatric patients with sepsis, but how they compare to each other in terms of sensitivity and specificity is unclear.

METHODS

The systematic literature review was performed following PRISMA guidelines. Publically accessible search engines and study databases such as PubMed, CENTRAL (Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials), and Google Scholar were scanned for articles published from January 1990 to March 2021 using relevant key words. All relevant studies were analyzed separately by two reviewers. A random-effects model was used to calculate the pooled sensitivity and pooled specificity with a 95% confidence interval (CI). Heterogeneity was evaluated using I², which estimates the percentage of variation between study results due to heterogeneity rather than sampling error.

RESULTS

Eleven studies met inclusion criteria and evaluated the SOFA scoring system. The pooled sensitivity, specificity, and SROC for prediction of mortality were 83% (95% CI: 76%-88%), 72% (95% CI: 60%-81%), and 85% (95% CI: 82%-88%), respectively. Six studies examined the SIRS system. Pooled sensitivity, specificity, and SROC were 80% (95% CI: 64%-90%), 36% (95% CI: 23%-51%), and 59% (95% CI: 55%-63%), respectively.

CONCLUSION

This meta-analysis shows that SOFA was superior to SIRS for predicting mortality in PICU patients with sepsis. Additional prospective multi-centric studies are needed to better evaluate and validate this finding.

Shock Index in the early assessment of febrile children at the emergency department: a prospective multicentre study

OBJECTIVE

(1) To derive reference values for the Shock Index (heart rate/systolic blood pressure) based on a large emergency department (ED) population of febrile children and (2) to determine the diagnostic value of the Shock Index for serious illness in febrile children.

DESIGN/SETTING

Observational study in 11 European EDs (2017-2018).

PATIENTS

Febrile children with measured blood pressure.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Serious bacterial infection (SBI), invasive bacterial infection (IBI), immediate life-saving interventions (ILSIs) and intensive care unit (ICU) admission. The association between high Shock Index (>95th centile) and each outcome was determined by logistic regression adjusted for age, sex, referral, comorbidity and temperature. Additionally, we calculated sensitivity, specificity and negative/positive likelihood ratios (LRs).

RESULTS

Of 5622 children, 461 (8.2%) had SBI, 46 (0.8%) had IBI, 203 (3.6%) were treated with ILSI and 69 (1.2%) were ICU admitted. High Shock Index was associated with SBI (adjusted OR (aOR) 1.6 (95% CI 1.3 to 1.9)), ILSI (aOR 2.5 (95% CI 2.0 to 2.9)), ICU admission (aOR 2.2 (95% CI 1.4 to 2.9)) but not with IBI (aOR: 1.5 (95% CI 0.6 to 2.4)). For the different outcomes, sensitivity for high Shock Index ranged from 0.10 to 0.15, specificity ranged from 0.95 to 0.95, negative LRs ranged from 0.90 to 0.95 and positive LRs ranged from 1.8 to 2.8.

CONCLUSIONS

High Shock Index is associated with serious illness in febrile children. However, its rule-out value is insufficient which suggests that the Shock Index is not valuable as a screening tool for all febrile children at the ED.

Severity of illness and organ dysfunction scoring systems in pediatric critical care: The impacts on clinician's practices and the future

Severity and organ dysfunction (OD) scores are increasingly used in pediatric intensive care units (PICU). Therefore, this review aims to provide 1/ an updated state-of-the-art of severity scoring systems and OD scores in pediatric critical care, which explains 2/ the performance measurement tools and the significance of each tool in clinical practice and provides 3/ the usefulness, limits, and impact on future scores in PICU. The following two pediatric systems have been proposed: the PRISMIV, is used to collect data between 2 h before PICU admission and the first 4 h after PICU admission; the PIM3, is used to collect data during the first hour after PICU admission. The PELOD-2 and SOFApediatric scores were the most common OD scores available. Scores used in the PICU should help clinicians answer the following three questions: 1/ Are the most severely ill patients dying in my service: a good discrimination allow us to interpret that there are the most severe patients who died in my service. 2/ Does the overall number of deaths observed in my department consistent with the severity of patients? The standard mortality ratio allow us to determine whether the total number of deaths observed in our service over a given period is in adequacy with the number of deaths predicted, by considering the severity of patients on admission? 3/ Does the number of deaths observed by severity level in my department consistent with the severity of patients? The calibration enabled us to determine whether the number of deaths observed according to the severity of patients at PICU admission in a department over a given period is in adequacy with the number of deaths predicted, according to the severity of the patients at PICU admission. These scoring systems are not interpretable at the patient level. Scoring systems are used to describe patients with PICU in research and evaluate the service's case mix and performance. Therefore, the prospect of automated data collection, which permits their calculation, facilitated by the computerization of services, is a necessity that manufacturers should consider.

Prognostic factors and models to predict pediatric sepsis mortality: A scoping review

Introduction

Several scoring systems are available to assess the severity of sepsis in pediatric patients in diverse settings worldwide. This study investigates the quality and applicability of predictive models for determining pediatric sepsis mortality, especially in acute care and limited-resource settings.

Data sources

Mortality prediction factors and models were searched in four databases using the following criteria: developed for pediatric health care, especially in acute settings, and with mortality as an outcome.

Study selection

Two or more reviewers performed the study selection to ensure no bias occurred. Any disagreements were solved by consensus or by the decision of a third reviewer.

Data extraction

The authors extracted the results and mapped the selected studies qualitatively to describe the prognostic properties of the risk factors and models proposed in the study.

Data synthesis

The final analysis included 28 mortality prediction models. Their characteristics, analysis, and performance measures were summarized. Performance was described in terms of calibration and discrimination, including assessing for risk of bias and applicability. A modified version of the PRISM-III score based on physiologic criteria (PRISM-III-APS) increased its predictive value to 0.85-0.95. The vasoactive-inotropic score at 12 h had a strong independent association with death. Albumin had an excellent predictive value when combined with other variables. Lactate, a biomarker widely measured in patients with sepsis, was highly associated with mortality. The bioimpedance phase angle was not considered applicable in our setting. Measurement using more straightforward methods, such as mid-upper arm circumference, was feasible in numerous health care facilities.

Conclusion

Leveraging prognostic models to predict mortality among pediatric patients with sepsis remains an important and well-recognized area of study. While much validation and development work remains to be done, available prognostic models could aid clinicians at the bedside of children with sepsis. Furthermore, mortality prediction models are essential and valuable tools for assessing the quality of care provided to critically ill pediatric patients.

Age-adjusted quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score for predicting mortality and disease severity in children with infection: a systematic review and meta-analysis

We assessed the diagnostic accuracy of the age-adjusted quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score (qSOFA) for predicting mortality and disease severity in pediatric patients with suspected or confirmed infection. We conducted a systematic search of PubMed, EMBASE, the Cochrane Library, and Web of Science. Eleven studies with a total of 172,569 patients were included in the meta-analysis. The pooled sensitivity, specificity, and diagnostic odds ratio of the age-adjusted qSOFA for predicting mortality and disease severity were 0.69 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.53-0.81), 0.71 (95% CI 0.36-0.91), and 6.57 (95% CI 4.46-9.67), respectively. The area under the summary receiver-operating characteristic curve was 0.733. The pooled sensitivity and specificity for predicting mortality were 0.73 (95% CI 0.66-0.79) and 0.63 (95% CI 0.21-0.92), respectively. The pooled sensitivity and specificity for predicting disease severity were 0.73 (95% CI 0.21-0.97) and 0.72 (95% CI 0.11-0.98), respectively. The performance of the age-adjusted qSOFA for predicting mortality and disease severity was better in emergency department patients than in intensive care unit patients. The age-adjusted qSOFA has moderate predictive power and can help in rapidly identifying at-risk children, but its utility may be limited by its insufficient sensitivity.

The Utility of Bedside Assessment Tools and Associated Factors to Avoid Antibiotic Overuse in an Urban PICU of a Diarrheal Disease Hospital in Bangladesh

BACKGROUND

Antibiotic exposure in the pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) is very high, although 50% of all antibiotics may be unnecessary. We aimed to determine the utility of simple bedside screening tools and predicting factors to avoid antibiotic overuse in the ICU among children with diarrhea and critical illness.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective, single-center, case-control study that included children aged 2-59 months who were admitted to PICU with diarrhea and critical illness between 2017 and 2020.

RESULTS

We compared young children who did not receive antibiotics (cases, n = 164) during ICU stay to those treated with antibiotics (controls, n = 346). For predicting the 'no antibiotic approach', the sensitivity of a negative quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) was similar to quick Pediatric Logistic Organ Dysfunction-2 (qPELOD-2) and higher than Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS). A negative qSOFA or qPELOD-2 score calculated during PICU admission is superior to SIRS to avoid antibiotic overuse in under-five children. The logistic regression analysis revealed that cases were more often older and independently associated with hypernatremia. Cases less often had severe underweight, altered mentation, age-specific fast breathing, lower chest wall in-drawing, adventitious sound on lung auscultation, abdominal distension, developmental delay, hyponatremia, hypocalcemia, and microscopic evidence of invasive diarrhea (for all, p < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Antibiotic overuse could be evaded in PICU using simple bedside screening tools and clinical characteristics, particularly in poor resource settings among children with diarrhea.

Febrile children in the Emergency Department: Frequency and predictors of poor outcome

AIM

To evaluate the frequency and predictors of poor outcome in febrile children presenting to the Emergency Department.

METHODS

Retrospective observational study from the Emergency Department of The Royal Children's Hospital, Melbourne, Australia. All children with presenting complaint of fever or triage temperature >38°C over a 6-month period were included. Poor outcome was defined as: new organ dysfunction or the requirement for organ support therapy (inotrope infusion, mechanical ventilation, renal replacement therapy and extra-corporeal life support). Predictors evaluated were as follows: initial vital signs, blood tests and clinical scores. Odds ratio, sensitivity, specificity and area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve were calculated for each predictor variable.

RESULTS

Between Jan-June 2019, 6217 children met inclusion criteria. Twenty-seven (0.4%) developed new organ dysfunction, 10 (0.2%) required organ support therapy (inotrope infusion in 5, mechanical ventilation in 6, renal replacement therapy in 1, extra-corporeal life support in 1). Odds of new organ dysfunction, requirement for inotropic support and mechanical ventilation were higher with abnormal initial vital signs, blood tests and clinical scores, though overall test characteristics were poor due to infrequency.

CONCLUSION

Poor outcomes were uncommon among febrile children presenting to the Emergency Department. Vital signs, blood tests and clinical scores were poor predictors.

Predictors of disease severity in children presenting from the community with febrile illnesses: a systematic review of prognostic studies

INTRODUCTION

Early identification of children at risk of severe febrile illness can optimise referral, admission and treatment decisions, particularly in resource-limited settings. We aimed to identify prognostic clinical and laboratory factors that predict progression to severe disease in febrile children presenting from the community.

METHODS

We systematically reviewed publications retrieved from MEDLINE, Web of Science and Embase between 31 May 1999 and 30 April 2020, supplemented by hand search of reference lists and consultation with an expert Technical Advisory Panel. Studies evaluating prognostic factors or clinical prediction models in children presenting from the community with febrile illnesses were eligible. The primary outcome was any objective measure of disease severity ascertained within 30 days of enrolment. We calculated unadjusted likelihood ratios (LRs) for comparison of prognostic factors, and compared clinical prediction models using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs). Risk of bias and applicability of studies were assessed using the Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool and the Quality In Prognosis Studies tool.

RESULTS

Of 5949 articles identified, 18 studies evaluating 200 prognostic factors and 25 clinical prediction models in 24 530 children were included. Heterogeneity between studies precluded formal meta-analysis. Malnutrition (positive LR range 1.56-11.13), hypoxia (2.10-8.11), altered consciousness (1.24-14.02), and markers of acidosis (1.36-7.71) and poor peripheral perfusion (1.78-17.38) were the most common predictors of severe disease. Clinical prediction model performance varied widely (AUROC range 0.49-0.97). Concerns regarding applicability were identified and most studies were at high risk of bias.

CONCLUSIONS

Few studies address this important public health question. We identified prognostic factors from a wide range of geographic contexts that can help clinicians assess febrile children at risk of progressing to severe disease. Multicentre studies that include outpatients are required to explore generalisability and develop data-driven tools to support patient prioritisation and triage at the community level.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42019140542.

Outcomes Following Intensive Care Unit Admission in a Pediatric Cohort in Malawi

INTRODUCTION

The burden of critical illness in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) is high; however, there is a paucity of data describing pediatric critical care outcomes in this setting.

METHODS

We performed a prospective observational study of the pediatric (≤18 years) intensive care population in Malawi, from August 2016 to May 2018. Data collected include patient demographics and clinical data, admission criteria and outcome. A multivariate Poisson regression was performed to determine risk factors for mortality.

RESULTS

Over the study period, 499 patients were admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) and 105 (21.0%) were children. The average age was 10.6 ± 5.4 years. Primary indications for ICU admission were sepsis (n = 30, 30.3%) and traumatic brain injury (TBI, n = 23, 23.2%). Of those who died, sepsis (n = 18, 32.7%), acute respiratory failure (n = 11, 20.0%) and TBI (n = 11, 20.0%) were the primary admission diagnoses. Overall, ICU mortality was 54.3% (n = 57). Multivariate regression for increased ICU mortality revealed: age ≤5 years [risk ratio (RR) 1.96, 95% CI 1.10-2.26, p < 0.001], hemoglobin < 10 g/dl (RR 1.58, 95% CI 1.08-2.01, p = 0.01) and shock requiring epinephrine support (RR 2.76, 95% CI 1.80-4.23, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Pediatric ICU mortality is high. Predictors of mortality were age ≤5 years, anemia at ICU admission and the need for epinephrine support. Training of pediatric intensive care specialists and increased blood product availability may attenuate the high mortality for critically ill children in Malawi.

The predictors of outcome and progression of pediatric sepsis and septic shock: A prospective observational study from western India

Introduction:

There is a paucity of studies on the progression and outcome of Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS) with its determinants.

Aims and Objectives:

To determine the predictors of the outcome and progression of pediatric sepsis and septic shock.

Materials and Methods:

Prospective observational study of children fulfilling criteria of SIRS and their progression to sepsis, severe sepsis, and septic shock (clinically and biochemically) was conducted at a tertiary care center.

Results:

Totally, 200 children were recruited over a period of 21 months (from February 2016 to October 2017). Most cases (80, 40%) were infants. Of the total, 188 (94%) cases were of an infective etiology (mostly respiratory system). Temperature and heart rate were the two commonest SIRS parameters which were deranged. Blood cultures were positive in only 25 (12.5%) cases. Out of the total 200 children, 108 progressed to sepsis, of which 26 progressed to severe sepsis, of which 22 progressed to septic shock. Abnormal leukocyte count, culture positivity and severe acute malnutrition were significantly associated with progression of SIRS patients to septic shock (P = 0.001, 0.00001 and 0.002, respectively). Factors associated with mortality were positive blood culture, multiorgan dysfunction, late hospital admissions, severe acute malnutrition, and requirement of supportive care (P values-<0.0001, <0.0001, 0.03, <0.0001 and <0.0001, respectively).

Conclusions:

SIRS can progress to septic shock if not identified early. The predictors of mortality were positive blood cultures, multiorgan dysfunction, late hospital admissions, severe acute malnutrition, and requirement of supportive care. The predictors of progression to septic shock were abnormal leukocyte count, culture positivity, and severe acute malnutrition.

Accuracy of a Modified qSOFA Score for Predicting Critical Care Admission in Febrile Children

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

The identification of life-threatening infection in febrile children presenting to the emergency department (ED) remains difficult. The quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) was only derived for adult populations, implying an urgent need for pediatric scores. We developed and validated a novel, adapted qSOFA score (Liverpool quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment [LqSOFA]) and compared its performance with qSOFA, Pediatric Early Warning Score (PEWS), and National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) high-risk criteria in predicting critical care (CC) admission in febrile children presenting to the ED.

METHODS

The LqSOFA (range, 0-4) incorporates age-adjusted heart rate, respiratory rate, capillary refill, and consciousness level on the Alert, Voice, Pain, Unresponsive scale. The primary outcome was CC admission within 48 hours of ED presentation, and the secondary outcome was sepsis-related mortality. LqSOFA, qSOFA, PEWS, and NICE high-risk criteria scores were calculated, and performance characteristics, including area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, were calculated for each score.

RESULTS

In the initial (n = 1121) cohort, 47 CC admissions (4.2%) occurred, and in the validation (n = 12 241) cohort, 135 CC admissions (1.1%) occurred, and there were 5 sepsis-related deaths. In the validation cohort, LqSOFA predicted CC admission with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.81 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.76 to 0.86), versus qSOFA (0.66; 95% CI, 0.60 to 0.71), PEWS (0.93; 95% CI, 0.90 to 0.95), and NICE high-risk criteria (0.81; 95% CI, 0.78 to 0.85). For predicting CC admission, the LqSOFA outperformed the qSOFA, with a net reclassification index of 10.4% (95% CI, 1.0% to 19.9%).

CONCLUSIONS

In this large study, we demonstrate improved performance of the LqSOFA over qSOFA in identifying febrile children at risk for CC admission and sepsis-related mortality. Further validation is required in other settings.

Challenges in developing a consensus definition of neonatal sepsis

Sepsis remains a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in the neonatal population, and at present, there is no unified definition of neonatal sepsis. Existing consensus sepsis definitions within paediatrics are not suited for use in the NICU and do not address sepsis in the premature population. Many neonatal research and surveillance networks have criteria for the definition of sepsis within their publications though these vary greatly and there is typically a heavy emphasis on microbiological culture. The concept of organ dysfunction as a diagnostic criterion for sepsis is rarely considered in neonatal literature, and it remains unclear how to most accurately screen neonates for organ dysfunction. Accurately defining and screening for sepsis is important for clinical management, health service design and future research. The progress made by the Sepsis-3 group provides a roadmap of how definitions and screening criteria may be developed. Similar initiatives in neonatology are likely to be more challenging and would need to account for the unique presentation of sepsis in term and premature neonates. The outputs of similar consensus work within neonatology should be twofold: a validated definition of neonatal sepsis and screening criteria to identify at-risk patients earlier in their clinical course. IMPACT: There is currently no consensus definition of neonatal sepsis and the definitions that are currently in use are varied.A consensus definition of neonatal sepsis would benefit clinicians, patients and researchers.Recent progress in adults with publication of Sepsis-3 provides guidance on how a consensus definition and screening criteria for sepsis could be produced in neonatology.We discuss common themes and potential shortcomings in sepsis definitions within neonatology.We highlight the need for a consensus definition of neonatal sepsis and the challenges that this task poses.

Distinct Biomarker Profiles Distinguish Malawian Children with Malarial and Non-malarial Sepsis

Presently, it is difficult to accurately diagnose sepsis, a common cause of childhood death in sub-Saharan Africa, in malaria-endemic areas, given the clinical and pathophysiological overlap between malarial and non-malarial sepsis. Host biomarkers can distinguish sepsis from uncomplicated fever, but are often abnormal in malaria in the absence of sepsis. To identify biomarkers that predict sepsis in a malaria-endemic setting, we retrospectively analyzed data and sera from a case-control study of febrile Malawian children (aged 6-60 months) with and without malaria who presented to a community health center in Blantyre (January-August 2016). We characterized biomarkers for 29 children with uncomplicated malaria without sepsis, 25 without malaria or sepsis, 17 with malaria and sepsis, and 16 without malaria but with sepsis. Sepsis was defined using systemic inflammatory response criteria; biomarkers (interleukin-6 [IL-6], tumor necrosis factor receptor-1, interleukin-1 β [IL-1β], interleukin-10 [IL-10], von Willebrand factor antigen-2, intercellular adhesion molecule-1, and angiopoietin-2 [Ang-2]) were measured with multiplex magnetic bead assays. IL-6, IL-1β, and IL-10 were elevated, and Ang-2 was decreased in children with malaria compared with non-malarial fever. Children with non-malarial sepsis had greatly increased IL-1β compared with the other subgroups. IL-1β best predicted sepsis, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) of 0.71 (95% CI: 0.57-0.85); a combined biomarker-clinical characteristics model improved prediction (AUROC of 0.77, 95% CI: 0.67-0.85). We identified a distinct biomarker profile for non-malarial sepsis and developed a sepsis prediction model. Additional clinical and biological data are necessary to further explore sepsis pathophysiology in malaria-endemic regions.

A National Approach to Pediatric Sepsis Surveillance

Pediatric sepsis is a major public health concern, and robust surveillance tools are needed to characterize its incidence, outcomes, and trends. The increasing use of electronic health records (EHRs) in the United States creates an opportunity to conduct reliable, pragmatic, and generalizable population-level surveillance using routinely collected clinical data rather than administrative claims or resource-intensive chart review. In 2015, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recruited sepsis investigators and representatives of key professional societies to develop an approach to adult sepsis surveillance using clinical data recorded in EHRs. This led to the creation of the adult sepsis event definition, which was used to estimate the national burden of sepsis in adults and has been adapted into a tool kit to facilitate widespread implementation by hospitals. In July 2018, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention convened a new multidisciplinary pediatric working group to tailor an EHR-based national sepsis surveillance approach to infants and children. Here, we describe the challenges specific to pediatric sepsis surveillance, including evolving clinical definitions of sepsis, accommodation of age-dependent physiologic differences, identifying appropriate EHR markers of infection and organ dysfunction among infants and children, and the need to account for children with medical complexity and the growing regionalization of pediatric care. We propose a preliminary pediatric sepsis event surveillance definition and outline next steps for refining and validating these criteria so that they may be used to estimate the national burden of pediatric sepsis and support site-specific surveillance to complement ongoing initiatives to improve sepsis prevention, recognition, and treatment.

[Paediatric sequential organ failure assessment (pSOFA) score: A new mortality prediction score in the paediatric intensive care unit]

OBJECTIVES

To assess performance of the age-adapted SOFA score in children admitted into Paediatric Intensive Care Units (PICUs) and whether the SOFA score can compete with the systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) in diagnosing sepsis, as recommended in the Sepsis-3 consensus definitions.

METHODS

Two-centre prospective observational study in 281 children admitted to the PICU. We calculated the SOFA, Pediatric Risk of Mortality (PRISM), and Pediatric Index of Mortality-2 (PIM2) scores and assessed for the presence of SIRS at admission. The primary outcome was 30-day mortality.

RESULTS

The SOFA score was higher in nonsurvivors (P<.001) and mortality increased progressively across patient subgroups from lower to higher SOFA scores. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis revealed that the area under the curve (AUC) of the SOFA score for predicting 30-day mortality was 0.89, compared to AUCs of 0.84 and 0.79 for the PRISM and PIM2 scores, respectively. The AUC of the SOFA score for predicting a prolonged stay in the PICU was 0.67. The SOFA score was correlated to the PRISM score (r_s=0.59) and the PIM2 score (r_s=0.51). In children with infection, the AUC of the SOFA score for predicting mortality was 0.87 compared to an AUC of 0.60 using SIRS. The diagnosis of sepsis applying a SOFA cutoff of 3 points predicted mortality better than both the SIRS and the SOFA cutoff of 2 points recommended by the Sepsis-3 consensus.

CONCLUSIONS

The SOFA score at admission is useful for predicting outcomes in the general PICU population and is more accurate than SIRS for definition of paediatric sepsis.

Sepsis Immunometabolism: From Defining Sepsis to Understanding How Energy Production Affects Immune Response

OBJECTIVES

This review will examine current definitions and trends in sepsis management as well pathophysiologic mechanisms in animal and ex vivo studies that correlate decreased energy production with deranged inflammatory response during the septic process.

DATA SOURCES

The latest articles in the literature that focus on the role of immunometabolism and associated mechanisms in sepsis were selected.

STUDY SELECTION

The most relevant, original articles were included in the review.

DATA EXTRACTION

All pertinent data for sepsis definitions as well as changes in immunometabolic pathways during the septic process was reviewed and assessed for inclusion in this article.

DATA SYNTHESIS

Sepsis is a major cause of multiple organ dysfunction. It is the principal cause of death resulting from infection and one of the most expensive conditions treated in the United States. Despite current efforts to accurately define sepsis, novel treatments and highly trained providers, mortality rates for sepsis remain high, prompting a need for further investigation of underlying immunometabolic mechanisms to identify potential treatment targets. The definition of sepsis has shifted and changed in the past few decades due to poorly defined criteria, as well as unclear guidelines for providers with regards to management of severe sepsis and septic shock. The early identification of patients with a systemic inflammatory response that will progress to septic shock is critical since recent traditional therapeutic approaches, such as early goal-directed therapy, IV immunoglobulin, and anti-tumor necrosis factor-α antibodies have failed.

CONCLUSIONS

There are no effective anti-sepsis drug therapies due to complex inflammatory and metabolic interactions. Further studies regarding the interface between innate immunity and metabolism should be investigated to effectively address septic patient mortality rates.

Application of dynamic pulse pressure and vasopressor tools for predicting outcomes in patients with sepsis in intensive care units

PURPOSE

We aimed to determine whether the combination of dynamic pulse pressure and vasopressor (DPV) use is applicable for mortality risk stratification in patients with severe sepsis. We proposed the use of the DPV tool and compared it with traditional sepsis severity indices.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

All adult patients who met the sepsis criteria of the Third International Consensus Definitions for Sepsis and Septic Shock (Sepsis-3) between August 2013 and January 2017 were eligible for the study. Patients who expired within 3 days of admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) were excluded. The primary outcomes were 7-day and 28-day mortality.

RESULTS

The study participants included 757 consecutive adult patients. A subpopulation of 155 patients underwent immune profiling assays on days 1, 3, and 7 of ICU admission. The DPV tool had a better performance for predicting 7-day mortality (area under curve, AUC: 0.70), followed by the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) (AUC: 0.64), the plus pulse pressure (AUC: 0.64). For predicting 28-day mortality, the DPV tool was not inferior to the SOFA (AUC: 0.61), DPV tool (AUC: 0.59).

CONCLUSIONS

The DPV tool can be applied for 7-day and 28-day mortality risk prediction in patients with sepsis.

Pediatric Severe Sepsis Prediction Using Machine Learning

Background: Early detection of pediatric severe sepsis is necessary in order to optimize effective treatment, and new methods are needed to facilitate this early detection. Objective: Can a machine-learning based prediction algorithm using electronic healthcare record (EHR) data predict severe sepsis onset in pediatric populations? Methods: EHR data were collected from a retrospective set of de-identified pediatric inpatient and emergency encounters for patients between 2-17 years of age, drawn from the University of California San Francisco (UCSF) Medical Center, with encounter dates between June 2011 and March 2016. Results: Pediatric patients (n = 9,486) were identified and 101 (1.06%) were labeled with severe sepsis following the pediatric severe sepsis definition of Goldstein et al. (1). In 4-fold cross-validation evaluations, the machine learning algorithm achieved an AUROC of 0.916 for discrimination between severe sepsis and control pediatric patients at the time of onset and AUROC of 0.718 at 4 h before onset. The prediction algorithm significantly outperformed the Pediatric Logistic Organ Dysfunction score (PELOD-2) (p < 0.05) and pediatric Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS) (p < 0.05) in the prediction of severe sepsis 4 h before onset using cross-validation and pairwise t-tests. Conclusion: This machine learning algorithm has the potential to deliver high-performance severe sepsis detection and prediction through automated monitoring of EHR data for pediatric inpatients, which may enable earlier sepsis recognition and treatment initiation.