Validation and Trustworthiness of Multiscale Models of Cardiac Electrophysiology

Computational modeling of cardiac electrophysiology and arrhythmogenesis: toward clinical translation

The complexity of cardiac electrophysiology, involving dynamic changes in numerous components across multiple spatial (from ion channel to organ) and temporal (from milliseconds to days) scales, makes an intuitive or empirical analysis of cardiac arrhythmogenesis challenging. Multiscale mechanistic computational models of cardiac electrophysiology provide precise control over individual parameters, and their reproducibility enables a thorough assessment of arrhythmia mechanisms. This review provides a comprehensive analysis of models of cardiac electrophysiology and arrhythmias, from the single cell to the organ level, and how they can be leveraged to better understand rhythm disorders in cardiac disease and to improve heart patient care. Key issues related to model development based on experimental data are discussed, and major families of human cardiomyocyte models and their applications are highlighted. An overview of organ-level computational modeling of cardiac electrophysiology and its clinical applications in personalized arrhythmia risk assessment and patient-specific therapy of atrial and ventricular arrhythmias is provided. The advancements presented here highlight how patient-specific computational models of the heart reconstructed from patient data have achieved success in predicting risk of sudden cardiac death and guiding optimal treatments of heart rhythm disorders. Finally, an outlook toward potential future advances, including the combination of mechanistic modeling and machine learning/artificial intelligence, is provided. As the field of cardiology is embarking on a journey toward precision medicine, personalized modeling of the heart is expected to become a key technology to guide pharmaceutical therapy, deployment of devices, and surgical interventions.

Electrophysiological patterns and structural substrates of Brugada syndrome: Critical appraisal and computational analyses

Brugada syndrome (BrS) is a cardiac electrophysiological disease with unknown etiology, associated with sudden cardiac death. Symptomatic patients are treated with implanted cardiac defibrillator, but no risk stratification strategy is effective in patients that are at low to medium arrhythmic risk. Cardiac computational modeling is an emerging tool that can be used to verify the hypotheses of pathogenesis and inspire new risk stratification strategies. However, to obtain reliable results computational models must be validated with consistent experimental data. We reviewed the main electrophysiological and structural variables from BrS clinical studies to assess which data could be used to validate a computational approach. Activation delay in the epicardial right ventricular outflow tract is a consistent finding, as well as increased fibrosis and subclinical alterations of right ventricular functional and morphological parameters. The comparison between other electrophysiological variables is hindered by methodological differences between studies, which we commented. We conclude by presenting a recent theory unifying electrophysiological and structural substrate in BrS and illustrate how computational modeling could help translation to risk stratification.

Evaluation of an open-source pipeline to create patient-specific left atrial models: A reproducibility study

This work presents an open-source software pipeline to create patient-specific left atrial models with fibre orientations and a fibrDEFAULTosis map, suitable for electrophysiology simulations, and quantifies the intra and inter observer reproducibility of the model creation. The semi-automatic pipeline takes as input a contrast enhanced magnetic resonance angiogram, and a late gadolinium enhanced (LGE) contrast magnetic resonance (CMR). Five operators were allocated 20 cases each from a set of 50 CMR datasets to create a total of 100 models to evaluate inter and intra-operator variability. Each output model consisted of: (1) a labelled surface mesh open at the pulmonary veins and mitral valve, (2) fibre orientations mapped from a diffusion tensor MRI (DTMRI) human atlas, (3) fibrosis map extracted from the LGE-CMR scan, and (4) simulation of local activation time (LAT) and phase singularity (PS) mapping. Reproducibility in our pipeline was evaluated by comparing agreement in shape of the output meshes, fibrosis distribution in the left atrial body, and fibre orientations. Reproducibility in simulations outputs was evaluated in the LAT maps by comparing the total activation times, and the mean conduction velocity (CV). PS maps were compared with the structural similarity index measure (SSIM). The users processed in total 60 cases for inter and 40 cases for intra-operator variability. Our workflow allows a single model to be created in 16.72 ± 12.25 min. Similarity was measured with shape, percentage of fibres oriented in the same direction, and intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) for the fibrosis calculation. Shape differed noticeably only with users' selection of the mitral valve and the length of the pulmonary veins from the ostia to the distal end; fibrosis agreement was high, with ICC of 0.909 (inter) and 0.999 (intra); fibre orientation agreement was high with 60.63% (inter) and 71.77% (intra). The LAT showed good agreement, where the median ± IQR of the absolute difference of the total activation times was 2.02 ± 2.45 ms for inter, and 1.37 ± 2.45 ms for intra. Also, the average ± sd of the mean CV difference was -0.00404 ± 0.0155 m/s for inter, and 0.0021 ± 0.0115 m/s for intra. Finally, the PS maps showed a moderately good agreement in SSIM for inter and intra, where the mean ± sd SSIM for inter and intra were 0.648 ± 0.21 and 0.608 ± 0.15, respectively. Although we found notable differences in the models, as a consequence of user input, our tests show that the uncertainty caused by both inter and intra-operator variability is comparable with uncertainty due to estimated fibres, and image resolution accuracy of segmentation tools.

Diversity of cells and signals in the cardiovascular system

This white paper is the outcome of the seventh UC Davis Cardiovascular Research Symposium on Systems Approach to Understanding Cardiovascular Disease and Arrhythmia. This biannual meeting aims to bring together leading experts in subfields of cardiovascular biomedicine to focus on topics of importance to the field. The theme of the 2022 Symposium was 'Cell Diversity in the Cardiovascular System, cell-autonomous and cell-cell signalling'. Experts in the field contributed their experimental and mathematical modelling perspectives and discussed emerging questions, controversies, and challenges in examining cell and signal diversity, co-ordination and interrelationships involved in cardiovascular function. This paper originates from the topics of formal presentations and informal discussions from the Symposium, which aimed to develop a holistic view of how the multiple cell types in the cardiovascular system integrate to influence cardiovascular function, disease progression and therapeutic strategies. The first section describes the major cell types (e.g. cardiomyocytes, vascular smooth muscle and endothelial cells, fibroblasts, neurons, immune cells, etc.) and the signals involved in cardiovascular function. The second section emphasizes the complexity at the subcellular, cellular and system levels in the context of cardiovascular development, ageing and disease. Finally, the third section surveys the technological innovations that allow the interrogation of this diversity and advancing our understanding of the integrated cardiovascular function and dysfunction.

A simple and efficient adaptive time stepping technique for low-order operator splitting schemes applied to cardiac electrophysiology

We present a simple, yet efficient adaptive time stepping scheme for cardiac electrophysiology (EP) simulations based on standard operator splitting techniques. The general idea is to exploit the relation between the splitting error and the reaction's magnitude-found in a previous one-dimensional analytical study by Spiteri and Ziaratgahi-to construct the new time step controller for three-dimensional problems. Accordingly, we propose to control the time step length of the operator splitting scheme as a function of the reaction magnitude, in addition to the common approach of adapting the reaction time step. This conforms with observations in numerical experiments supporting the need for a significantly smaller time step length during depolarization than during repolarization. The proposed scheme is compared with classical proportional-integral-differential controllers using state-of-the-art error estimators, which are also presented in details as they have not been previously applied in the context of cardiac EP with operator splitting techniques. Benchmarks show that choosing the time step as a sigmoidal function of the reaction magnitude is highly efficient and full cardiac cycles can be computed with precision even in a realistic biventricular setup. The proposed scheme outperforms common adaptive time stepping techniques, while depending on fewer tuning parameters.

Applicability assessment for in-silico patient-specific TEVAR procedures

Thoracic Endovascular Aortic Repair (TEVAR) is a minimally invasive technique to treat thoracic aorta pathologies and consists of placing a self-expandable stent-graft into the pathological region to restore the vessel lumen and recreate a more physiological condition. Exhaustive computational models, namely the finite element analysis, can be implemented to reproduce the clinical procedure. In this context, numerical models, if used for clinical applications, must be reliable and the simulation credibility should be proved to predict clinical procedure outcomes or to build in-silico clinical trials. This work aims first at applying a previously validated TEVAR methodology to a patient-specific case. Then, defining the TEVAR procedure performed on a patient population as the context of use, the overall applicability of the TEVAR modeling is assessed to demonstrate the reliability of the model itself following a step-by-step method based on the ASME V&V40 protocol. Validation evidence sources are identified for the specific context of use and adopted to demonstrate the applicability of the numerical procedure, thereby answering a question of interest that evaluates the deployed stent-graft configuration in the vessel.

Integrated experimental-computational analysis of a HepaRG liver-islet microphysiological system for human-centric diabetes research

Microphysiological systems (MPS) are powerful tools for emulating human physiology and replicating disease progression in vitro. MPS could be better predictors of human outcome than current animal models, but mechanistic interpretation and in vivo extrapolation of the experimental results remain significant challenges. Here, we address these challenges using an integrated experimental-computational approach. This approach allows for in silico representation and predictions of glucose metabolism in a previously reported MPS with two organ compartments (liver and pancreas) connected in a closed loop with circulating medium. We developed a computational model describing glucose metabolism over 15 days of culture in the MPS. The model was calibrated on an experiment-specific basis using data from seven experiments, where HepaRG single-liver or liver-islet cultures were exposed to both normal and hyperglycemic conditions resembling high blood glucose levels in diabetes. The calibrated models reproduced the fast (i.e. hourly) variations in glucose and insulin observed in the MPS experiments, as well as the long-term (i.e. over weeks) decline in both glucose tolerance and insulin secretion. We also investigated the behaviour of the system under hypoglycemia by simulating this condition in silico, and the model could correctly predict the glucose and insulin responses measured in new MPS experiments. Last, we used the computational model to translate the experimental results to humans, showing good agreement with published data of the glucose response to a meal in healthy subjects. The integrated experimental-computational framework opens new avenues for future investigations toward disease mechanisms and the development of new therapies for metabolic disorders.

Microphysiological systems (MPS) are powerful tools to unravel biological knowledge underlying disease. MPS provide a physiologically relevant, human-based in vitro setting, which can potentially yield better translatability to humans than current animal models and traditional cell cultures. However, mechanistic interpretation and extrapolation of the experimental results to human outcome remain significant challenges. In this study, we confront these challenges using an integrated experimental-computational approach. We present a computational model describing glucose metabolism in a previously reported MPS integrating liver and pancreas. This MPS supports a homeostatic feedback loop between HepaRG/HHSteC spheroids and pancreatic islets, and allows for detailed investigations of mechanisms underlying type 2 diabetes in humans. We show that the computational model captures the complex dynamics of glucose-insulin regulation observed in the system, and can provide mechanistic insight into disease progression features, such as insulin resistance and β-cell dynamics. Furthermore, the computational model can explain key differences in temporal dynamics between MPS and human responses, and thus provides a tool for translating experimental insights into human outcome. The integrated experimental-computational framework opens new avenues for future investigations toward disease mechanisms and the development of new therapies for metabolic disorders.

Credibility assessment of patient-specific computational modeling using patient-specific cardiac modeling as an exemplar

Reliable and robust simulation of individual patients using patient-specific models (PSMs) is one of the next frontiers for modeling and simulation (M&S) in healthcare. PSMs, which form the basis of digital twins, can be employed as clinical tools to, for example, assess disease state, predict response to therapy, or optimize therapy. They may also be used to construct virtual cohorts of patients, for in silico evaluation of medical product safety and/or performance. Methods and frameworks have recently been proposed for evaluating the credibility of M&S in healthcare applications. However, such efforts have generally been motivated by models of medical devices or generic patient models; how best to evaluate the credibility of PSMs has largely been unexplored. The aim of this paper is to understand and demonstrate the credibility assessment process for PSMs using patient-specific cardiac electrophysiological (EP) modeling as an exemplar. We first review approaches used to generate cardiac PSMs and consider how verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ) apply to cardiac PSMs. Next, we execute two simulation studies using a publicly available virtual cohort of 24 patient-specific ventricular models, the first a multi-patient verification study, the second investigating the impact of uncertainty in personalized and non-personalized inputs in a virtual cohort. We then use the findings from our analyses to identify how important characteristics of PSMs can be considered when assessing credibility with the approach of the ASME V&V40 Standard, accounting for PSM concepts such as inter- and intra-user variability, multi-patient and “every-patient” error estimation, uncertainty quantification in personalized vs non-personalized inputs, clinical validation, and others. The results of this paper will be useful to developers of cardiac and other medical image based PSMs, when assessing PSM credibility.

Patient-specific models are computational models that have been personalized using data from a patient. After decades of research, recent computational, data science and healthcare advances have opened the door to the fulfilment of the enormous potential of such models, from truly personalized medicine to efficient and cost-effective testing of new medical products. However, reliability (credibility) of patient-specific models is key to their success, and there are currently no general guidelines for evaluating credibility of patient-specific models. Here, we consider how frameworks and model evaluation activities that have been developed for generic (not patient-specific) computational models, can be extended to patient specific models. We achieve this through a detailed analysis of the activities required to evaluate cardiac electrophysiological models, chosen as an exemplar field due to its maturity and the complexity of such models. This is the first paper on the topic of reliability of patient-specific models and will help pave the way to reliable and trusted patient-specific modeling across healthcare applications.

How to Validate in silico Deployment of Coronary Stents: Strategies and Limitations in the Choice of Comparator

This study aims at proposing and discussing useful indications to all those who need to validate a numerical model of coronary stent deployment. The proof of the reliability of a numerical model is becoming of paramount importance in the era of in silico trials. Recently, the ASME V&V Standard Committee for medical devices prepared the V&V 40 standard document that provides a framework that guides users in establishing and assessing the relevance and adequacy of verification and validation activities performed for proving the credibility of models. To the knowledge of the authors, only a few examples of the application of the V&V 40 framework to medical devices are available in the literature, but none about stents. Specifically, in this study, the authors wish to emphasize the choice of a relevant set of experimental activities to provide data for the validation of computational models aiming to predict coronary stent deployment. Attention is focused on the use of ad hoc 3D-printed mock vessels in the validation plan, which could allow evaluating aspects of clinical relevance in a representative but controlled environment.

Identification of structures for ion channel kinetic models

Markov models of ion channel dynamics have evolved as experimental advances have improved our understanding of channel function. Past studies have examined limited sets of various topologies for Markov models of channel dynamics. We present a systematic method for identification of all possible Markov model topologies using experimental data for two types of native voltage-gated ion channel currents: mouse atrial sodium currents and human left ventricular fast transient outward potassium currents. Successful models identified with this approach have certain characteristics in common, suggesting that aspects of the model topology are determined by the experimental data. Incorporating these channel models into cell and tissue simulations to assess model performance within protocols that were not used for training provided validation and further narrowing of the number of acceptable models. The success of this approach suggests a channel model creation pipeline may be feasible where the structure of the model is not specified a priori.

Markov models of ion channel dynamics have evolved as experimental advances have improved our understanding of channel function. Past studies have examined limited sets of various structures for Markov models of channel dynamics. Here, we present a computational routine designed to thoroughly search for Markov model topologies for simulating whole-cell currents. We tested this method on two distinct types of voltage-gated cardiac ion channels and found the number of states and connectivity required to recapitulate experimentally observed kinetics. Successful models identified with this approach have certain characteristics in common, suggesting that model structures are determined by the experimental data. Incorporation of these models into higher scale action potential and cable (an approximation of one-dimensional action potential propagation) simulations, identified key channel phenomena that were required for proper function. These methods provide a route to create functional channel models that can be used for action potential simulation without pre-defining their structure ahead of time.

Multiphysics computational modelling of the cardiac ventricles

Development of cardiac multiphysics models has progressed significantly over the decades and simulations combining multiple physics interactions have become increasingly common. In this review, we summarise the progress in this field focusing on various approaches of integrating ventricular structures. electrophysiological properties, myocardial mechanics, as well as incorporating blood hemodynamics and the circulatory system. Common coupling approaches are discussed and compared, including the advantages and shortcomings of each. Currently used strategies for patient-specific implementations are highlighted and potential future improvements considered.

Modeling approaches for reducing safety-related attrition in drug discovery and development: a review on myelotoxicity, immunotoxicity, cardiovascular toxicity, and liver toxicity

Introduction:Safety and tolerability is a critical area where improvements are needed to decrease the attrition rates during development of new drug candidates. Modeling approaches, when smartly implemented, can contribute to this aim.Areas covered:The focus of this review was on modeling approaches applied to four kinds of drug-induced toxicities: hematological, immunological, cardiovascular (CV) and liver toxicity. Papers, mainly published in the last 10 years, reporting models in three main methodological categories - computational models (e.g., quantitative structure-property relationships, machine learning approaches, neural networks, etc.), pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) models, and quantitative system pharmacology (QSP) models - have been considered.Expert opinion:The picture observed in the four examined toxicity areas appears heterogeneous. Computational models are typically used in all areas as screening tools in the early stages of development for hematological, cardiovascular and liver toxicity, with accuracies in the range of 70-90%. A limited number of computational models, based on the analysis of drug protein sequence, was instead proposed for immunotoxicity. In the later stages of development, toxicities are quantitatively predicted with reasonably good accuracy using either semi-mechanistic PK-PD models (hematological and cardiovascular toxicity), or fully exploited QSP models (immuno-toxicity and liver toxicity).

A systematic approach to the scale separation problem in the development of multiscale models

Throughout engineering there are problems where it is required to predict a quantity based on the measurement of another, but where the two quantities possess characteristic variations over vastly different ranges of time and space. Among the many challenges posed by such 'multiscale' problems, that of defining a 'scale' remains poorly addressed. This fundamental problem has led to much confusion in the field of biomedical engineering in particular. The present study proposes a definition of scale based on measurement limitations of existing instruments, available computational power, and on the ranges of time and space over which quantities of interest vary characteristically. The definition is used to construct a multiscale modelling methodology from start to finish, beginning with a description of the system (portion of reality of interest) and ending with an algorithmic orchestration of mathematical models at different scales within the system. The methodology is illustrated for a specific but well-researched problem. The concept of scale and the multiscale modelling approach introduced are shown to be easily adaptable to other closely related problems. Although out of the scope of this paper, we believe that the proposed methodology can be applied widely throughout engineering.

The role of validation in establishing the scientific credibility of predictive toxicology approaches intended for regulatory application

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The role of validation in establishing the credibility of predictive methods is discussed.

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Various assessment frameworks for predictive methods have evolved independently, being developed by different communities.

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A set of seven credibility factors is proposed as a method-agnostic means of comparing the various assessment frameworks.

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It is hoped this will facilitate communication and cross-disciplinary collaboration between method developers and users.

New approaches in toxicology based on in vitro methods and computational modelling offer considerable potential to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of chemical hazard and risk assessment in a variety of regulatory contexts. However, this presents challenges both for developers and regulatory assessors because often these two communities do not share the same level of confidence in a new approach. To address this challenge, various assessment frameworks have been developed over the past 20 years with the aim of creating harmonised and systematic approaches for evaluating new methods. These frameworks typically focus on specific methodologies and technologies, which has proven useful for establishing the validity and credibility of individual methods. However, given the increasing need to compare methods and combine their use in integrated assessment strategies, the multiplicity of frameworks is arguably becoming a barrier to their acceptance. In this commentary, we explore the concepts of model validity and credibility, and we illustrate how a set of seven credibility factors provides a method-agnostic means of comparing different kinds of predictive toxicology approaches. It is hoped that this will facilitate communication and cross-disciplinarity among method developers and users, with the ultimate aim of increasing the acceptance and use of predictive approaches in toxicology.

An Introductory Overview of Image-Based Computational Modeling in Personalized Cardiovascular Medicine

Cardiovascular diseases account for the number one cause of deaths in the world. Part of the reason for such grim statistics is our limited understanding of the underlying mechanisms causing these devastating pathologies, which is made difficult by the invasiveness of the procedures associated with their diagnosis (e.g., inserting catheters into the coronal artery to measure blood flow to the heart). Likewise, it is also difficult to design and test assistive devices without implanting them in vivo. However, with the recent advancements made in biomedical scanning technologies and computer simulations, image-based modeling (IBM) has arisen as the next logical step in the evolution of non-invasive patient-specific cardiovascular medicine. Yet, due to its novelty, it is still relatively unknown outside of the niche field. Therefore, the goal of this manuscript is to review the current state-of-the-art and the limitations of the methods used in this area of research, as well as their applications to personalized cardiovascular investigations and treatments. Specifically, the modeling of three different physics – electrophysiology, biomechanics and hemodynamics – used in the cardiovascular IBM is discussed in the context of the physiology that each one of them describes and the mechanisms of the underlying cardiac diseases that they can provide insight into. Only the “bare-bones” of the modeling approaches are discussed in order to make this introductory material more accessible to an outside observer. Additionally, the imaging methods, the aspects of the unique cardiac anatomy derived from them, and their relation to the modeling algorithms are reviewed. Finally, conclusions are drawn about the future evolution of these methods and their potential toward revolutionizing the non-invasive diagnosis, virtual design of treatments/assistive devices, and increasing our understanding of these lethal cardiovascular diseases.

Combination of "generalized Trotter operator splitting" and "quadratic adaptive algorithm" method for tradeoff among speedup, stability, and accuracy in the Markov chain model of sodium ion channels in the ventricular cell model

The fast hybrid operator splitting (HOS) and stable uniformization (UNI) methods have been proposed to save computation cost and enhance stability for Markov chain model in cardiac cell simulations. Moreover, Chen-Chen-Luo's quadratic adaptive algorithm (CCL) combined with HOS or UNI was used to improve the tradeoff between speedup and stability, but without considering accuracy. To compromise among stability, acceleration, and accuracy, we propose a generalized Trotter operator splitting (GTOS) method combined with CCL independent of the asymptotic property of a particular ion-channel model. Due to the accuracy underestimation of the mixed root mean square error (MRMSE) method, threshold root mean square error (TRMSE) is proposed to evaluate computation accuracy. With the fixed time-step RK4 as a reference, the second-order GTOS combined with CCL (30.8-fold speedup) for the wild-type Markov chain model with nine states (WT-9 model) or (7.4-fold) for the wild-type Markov chain model with eight states (WT-8 model) is faster than UNI combined with CCL (15.6-fold) for WT-9 model or (1.2-fold) for WT-8 model, separately. Besides, the second-order GTOS combined with CCL has 3.81% TRMSE for WT-9 model or 4.32% TRMSE for WT-8 model more accurate than 72.43% TRMSE for WT-9 model or 136.17% TRMSE for WT-8 model of HOS combined with CCL. To compromise speedup and accuracy, low-order GTOS combined with CCL is suggested to have the advantages of high precision and low computation cost. For high-accuracy requirements, high-order GTOS combined with CCL is recommended. Graphical abstract.

Calibration of ionic and cellular cardiac electrophysiology models

Cardiac electrophysiology models are among the most mature and well-studied mathematical models of biological systems. This maturity is bringing new challenges as models are being used increasingly to make quantitative rather than qualitative predictions. As such, calibrating the parameters within ion current and action potential (AP) models to experimental data sets is a crucial step in constructing a predictive model. This review highlights some of the fundamental concepts in cardiac model calibration and is intended to be readily understood by computational and mathematical modelers working in other fields of biology. We discuss the classic and latest approaches to calibration in the electrophysiology field, at both the ion channel and cellular AP scales. We end with a discussion of the many challenges that work to date has raised and the need for reproducible descriptions of the calibration process to enable models to be recalibrated to new data sets and built upon for new studies. This article is categorized under: Analytical and Computational Methods > Computational Methods Physiology > Mammalian Physiology in Health and Disease Models of Systems Properties and Processes > Cellular Models.

Considering discrepancy when calibrating a mechanistic electrophysiology model

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a vital step in using mathematical models and simulations to take decisions. The field of cardiac simulation has begun to explore and adopt UQ methods to characterize uncertainty in model inputs and how that propagates through to outputs or predictions; examples of this can be seen in the papers of this issue. In this review and perspective piece, we draw attention to an important and under-addressed source of uncertainty in our predictions-that of uncertainty in the model structure or the equations themselves. The difference between imperfect models and reality is termed model discrepancy, and we are often uncertain as to the size and consequences of this discrepancy. Here, we provide two examples of the consequences of discrepancy when calibrating models at the ion channel and action potential scales. Furthermore, we attempt to account for this discrepancy when calibrating and validating an ion channel model using different methods, based on modelling the discrepancy using Gaussian processes and autoregressive-moving-average models, then highlight the advantages and shortcomings of each approach. Finally, suggestions and lines of enquiry for future work are provided. This article is part of the theme issue 'Uncertainty quantification in cardiac and cardiovascular modelling and simulation'.

Physiological Modeling and Simulation-Validation, Credibility, and Application

In this review, we discuss the science of model validation as it applies to physiological modeling. There is widespread disagreement and ambiguity about what constitutes model validity. In areas in which models affect real-world decision-making, including within the clinic, in regulatory science, or in the design and engineering of novel therapeutics, this question is of critical importance. Without an answer, it impairs the usefulness of models and casts a shadow over model credibility in all domains. To address this question, we examine the use of nonmathematical models in physiological research, in medical practice, and in engineering to see how models in other domains are used and accepted. We reflect on historic physiological models and how they have been presented to the scientific community. Finally, we look at various validation frameworks that have been proposed as potential solutions during the past decade.

Key aspects for effective mathematical modelling of fractional-diffusion in cardiac electrophysiology: a quantitative study

Microscopic structural features of cardiac tissue play a fundamental role in determining complex spatio-temporal excitation dynamics at the macroscopic level. Recent efforts have been devoted to the development of mathematical models accounting for non-local spatio-temporal coupling able to capture these complex dynamics without the need of resolving tissue heterogeneities down to the micro-scale. In this work, we analyse in detail several important aspects affecting the overall predictive power of these modelling tools and provide some guidelines for an effective use of space-fractional models of cardiac electrophysiology in practical applications. Through an extensive computational study in simplified computational domains, we highlight the robustness of models belonging to different categories, i.e., physiological and phenomenological descriptions, against the introduction of non-locality, and lay down the foundations for future research and model validation against experimental data. A modern genetic algorithm framework is used to investigate proper parameterisations of the considered models, and the crucial role played by the boundary assumptions in the considered settings is discussed. Several numerical results are provided to support our claims.

Multi-scale approaches for the simulation of cardiac electrophysiology: II - Tissue-level structure and function

Computational models of the heart, from cell-level models, through one-, two- and three-dimensional tissue-level simplifications, to biophysically-detailed three-dimensional models of the ventricles, atria or whole heart, allow the simulation of excitation and propagation of this excitation, and have provided remarkable insight into the normal and pathological functioning of the heart. In this article we present equations for modelling cellular excitation (i.e. the cell action potential) from both a phenomenological and a biophysical perspective. Hodgkin-Huxley formalism is discussed, along with the current generation of biophysically-detailed cardiac cell models. Alternative Markovian formulations for modelling ionic currents are also presented. Equations describing propagation of this cellular excitation, through one-, two- and three-dimensional idealised or realistic tissues, are then presented. For all types of model, from cell to tissue, methods for discretisation and integration of the underlying equations are discussed. The article finishes with a discussion of two tissue-level experimental imaging techniques - diffusion tensor magnetic resonance imaging and optical imaging - that can be used to provide data for parameterisation and validation of cell- and tissue-level cardiac models.

A model for human action potential dynamics in vivo

Computational modeling based on experimental data remains an important component in cardiac electrophysiological research, especially because clinical data such as human action potential (AP) dynamics are scarce or limited by practical or ethical concerns. Such modeling has been used to develop and test a variety of mechanistic hypotheses, with the majority of these studies involving the rate dependence of AP duration (APD) including APD restitution and conduction velocity (CV). However, there is very little information regarding the complex dynamics at the boundary of repolarization (or refractoriness) and reexcitability. Here, we developed a "minimal" ionic model of the human AP, based on in vivo human monophasic AP (MAP) recordings obtained during clinical programmed electrical stimulation (PES) to address the progressive decrease in AP take-off potential (TOP) and associated CV slowing seen during three tightly spaced extrastimuli. Recent voltage-clamp data demonstrating the effect of intracellular calcium on sodium current availability were incorporated and were required to reproduce large (>15 mV) elevations in take-off potential and progressive encroachment. Introducing clinically observed APD gradients into the model enabled us to replicate the dynamic response to PES in patients leading to conduction block and reentry formation for the positive, but not the negative, APD gradient. Finally, we modeled the dynamics of reentry and show that spiral waves follow a meandering trajectory with a period of ~180 ms. We conclude that our model reproduces a variety of electrophysiological behavior including the response to sequential premature stimuli and provides a basis for studies of the initiation of reentry in human ventricular tissue.NEW & NOTEWORTHY This work presents a new model of the action potential of the human which reproduces the complex dynamics during premature stimulation in patients.

Development, calibration, and validation of a novel human ventricular myocyte model in health, disease, and drug block

Human-based modelling and simulations are becoming ubiquitous in biomedical science due to their ability to augment experimental and clinical investigations. Cardiac electrophysiology is one of the most advanced areas, with cardiac modelling and simulation being considered for virtual testing of pharmacological therapies and medical devices. Current models present inconsistencies with experimental data, which limit further progress. In this study, we present the design, development, calibration and independent validation of a human-based ventricular model (ToR-ORd) for simulations of electrophysiology and excitation-contraction coupling, from ionic to whole-organ dynamics, including the electrocardiogram. Validation based on substantial multiscale simulations supports the credibility of the ToR-ORd model under healthy and key disease conditions, as well as drug blockade. In addition, the process uncovers new theoretical insights into the biophysical properties of the L-type calcium current, which are critical for sodium and calcium dynamics. These insights enable the reformulation of L-type calcium current, as well as replacement of the hERG current model.

Consideration of a Credibility Assessment Framework in Model-Informed Drug Development: Potential Application to Physiologically-Based Pharmacokinetic Modeling and Simulation

The use of computational models in drug development has grown during the past decade. These model‐informed drug development (MIDD) approaches can inform a variety of drug development and regulatory decisions. When used for regulatory decision making, it is important to establish that the model is credible for its intended use. Currently, there is no consensus on how to establish and assess model credibility, including the selection of appropriate verification and validation activities. In this article, we apply a risk‐informed credibility assessment framework to physiologically‐based pharmacokinetic modeling and simulation and hypothesize this evidentiary framework may also be useful for evaluating other MIDD approaches. We seek to stimulate a scientific discussion around this framework as a potential starting point for uniform assessment of model credibility across MIDD. Ultimately, an overarching framework may help to standardize regulatory evaluation across therapeutic products (i.e., drugs and medical devices).

Credibility of In Silico Trial Technologies-A Theoretical Framing

Different research communities have developed various approaches to assess the credibility of predictive models. Each approach usually works well for a specific type of model, and under some epistemic conditions that are normally satisfied within that specific research domain. Some regulatory agencies recently started to consider evidences of safety and efficacy on new medical products obtained using computer modelling and simulation (which is referred to as In Silico Trials); this has raised the attention in the computational medicine research community on the regulatory science aspects of this emerging discipline. But this poses a foundational problem: in the domain of biomedical research the use of computer modelling is relatively recent, without a widely accepted epistemic framing for model credibility. Also, because of the inherent complexity of living organisms, biomedical modellers tend to use a variety of modelling methods, sometimes mixing them in the solution of a single problem. In such context merely adopting credibility approaches developed within other research communities might not be appropriate. In this paper we propose a theoretical framing for assessing the credibility of a predictive models for In Silico Trials, which accounts for the epistemic specificity of this research field and is general enough to be used for different type of models.

Comprehensive Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis for Cardiac Action Potential Models

Recent efforts to ensure the reliability of computational model-based predictions in healthcare, such as the ASME V&V40 Standard, emphasize the importance of uncertainty quantification (UQ) and sensitivity analysis (SA) when evaluating computational models. UQ involves empirically determining the uncertainty in model inputs-typically resulting from natural variability or measurement error-and then calculating the resultant uncertainty in model outputs. SA involves calculating how uncertainty in model outputs can be apportioned to input uncertainty. Rigorous comprehensive UQ/SA provides confidence that model-based decisions are robust to underlying uncertainties. However, comprehensive UQ/SA is not currently feasible for whole heart models, due to numerous factors including model complexity and difficulty in measuring variability in the many parameters. Here, we present a significant step to developing a framework to overcome these limitations. We: (i) developed a novel action potential (AP) model of moderate complexity (six currents, seven variables, 36 parameters); (ii) prescribed input variability for all parameters (not empirically derived); (iii) used a single "hyper-parameter" to study increasing levels of parameter uncertainty; (iv) performed UQ and SA for a range of model-derived quantities with physiological relevance; and (v) present quantitative and qualitative ways to analyze different behaviors that occur under parameter uncertainty, including "model failure". This is the first time uncertainty in every parameter (including conductances, steady-state parameters, and time constant parameters) of every ionic current in a cardiac model has been studied. This approach allowed us to demonstrate that, for this model, the simulated AP is fully robust to low levels of parameter uncertainty - to our knowledge the first time this has been shown of any cardiac model. A range of dynamics was observed at larger parameter uncertainty (e.g., oscillatory dynamics); analysis revealed that five parameters were highly influential in these dynamics. Overall, we demonstrate feasibility of performing comprehensive UQ/SA for cardiac cell models and demonstrate how to assess robustness and overcome model failure when performing cardiac UQ analyses. The approach presented here represents an important and significant step toward the development of model-based clinical tools which are demonstrably robust to all underlying uncertainties and therefore more reliable in safety-critical decision-making.

Smeared multiscale finite element model for electrophysiology and ionic transport in biological tissue

Basic functions of living organisms are governed by the nervous system through bidirectional signals transmitted from the brain to neural networks. These signals are similar to electrical waves. In electrophysiology the goal is to study the electrical properties of biological cells and tissues, and the transmission of signals. From a physics perspective, there exists a field of electrical potential within the living body, the nervous system, extracellular space and cells. Electrophysiological problems can be investigated experimentally and also theoretically by developing appropriate mathematical or computational models. Due to the enormous complexity of biological systems, it would be almost impossible to establish a detailed computational model of the electrical field, even for only a single organ (e.g. heart), including the entirety of cells comprising the neural network. In order to make computational models feasible for practical applications, we here introduce the concept of smeared fields, which represents a generalization of the previously formulated multiscale smeared methodology for mass transport in blood vessels, lymph, and tissue. We demonstrate the accuracy of the smeared finite element computational models for the electric field in numerical examples. The electrical field is further coupled with ionic mass transport within tissue composed of interstitial spaces extracellularly and by cytoplasm and organelles intracellularly. The proposed methodology, which couples electrophysiology and molecular ionic transport, is applicable to a variety of biological systems.

Credibility Evidence for Computational Patient Models Used in the Development of Physiological Closed-Loop Controlled Devices for Critical Care Medicine

Physiological closed-loop controlled medical devices automatically adjust therapy delivered to a patient to adjust a measured physiological variable. In critical care scenarios, these types of devices could automate, for example, fluid resuscitation, drug delivery, mechanical ventilation, and/or anesthesia and sedation. Evidence from simulations using computational models of physiological systems can play a crucial role in the development of physiological closed-loop controlled devices; but the utility of this evidence will depend on the credibility of the computational model used. Computational models of physiological systems can be complex with numerous non-linearities, time-varying properties, and unknown parameters, which leads to challenges in model assessment. Given the wide range of potential uses of computational patient models in the design and evaluation of physiological closed-loop controlled systems, and the varying risks associated with the diverse uses, the specific model as well as the necessary evidence to make a model credible for a use case may vary. In this review, we examine the various uses of computational patient models in the design and evaluation of critical care physiological closed-loop controlled systems (e.g., hemodynamic stability, mechanical ventilation, anesthetic delivery) as well as the types of evidence (e.g., verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification activities) presented to support the model for that use. We then examine and discuss how a credibility assessment framework (American Society of Mechanical Engineers Verification and Validation Subcommittee, V&V 40 Verification and Validation in Computational Modeling of Medical Devices) for medical devices can be applied to computational patient models used to test physiological closed-loop controlled systems.

Advancing Regulatory Science With Computational Modeling for Medical Devices at the FDA's Office of Science and Engineering Laboratories

Protecting and promoting public health is the mission of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). FDA's Center for Devices and Radiological Health (CDRH), which regulates medical devices marketed in the U.S., envisions itself as the world's leader in medical device innovation and regulatory science-the development of new methods, standards, and approaches to assess the safety, efficacy, quality, and performance of medical devices. Traditionally, bench testing, animal studies, and clinical trials have been the main sources of evidence for getting medical devices on the market in the U.S. In recent years, however, computational modeling has become an increasingly powerful tool for evaluating medical devices, complementing bench, animal and clinical methods. Moreover, computational modeling methods are increasingly being used within software platforms, serving as clinical decision support tools, and are being embedded in medical devices. Because of its reach and huge potential, computational modeling has been identified as a priority by CDRH, and indeed by FDA's leadership. Therefore, the Office of Science and Engineering Laboratories (OSEL)-the research arm of CDRH-has committed significant resources to transforming computational modeling from a valuable scientific tool to a valuable regulatory tool, and developing mechanisms to rely more on digital evidence in place of other evidence. This article introduces the role of computational modeling for medical devices, describes OSEL's ongoing research, and overviews how evidence from computational modeling (i.e., digital evidence) has been used in regulatory submissions by industry to CDRH in recent years. It concludes by discussing the potential future role for computational modeling and digital evidence in medical devices.

Patient-Specific Cardiovascular Computational Modeling: Diversity of Personalization and Challenges

Patient-specific computer models have been developed representing a variety of aspects of the cardiovascular system spanning the disciplines of electrophysiology, electromechanics, solid mechanics, and fluid dynamics. These physiological mechanistic models predict macroscopic phenomena such as electrical impulse propagation and contraction throughout the entire heart as well as flow and pressure dynamics occurring in the ventricular chambers, aorta, and coronary arteries during each heartbeat. Such models have been used to study a variety of clinical scenarios including aortic aneurysms, coronary stenosis, cardiac valvular disease, left ventricular assist devices, cardiac resynchronization therapy, ablation therapy, and risk stratification. After decades of research, these models are beginning to be incorporated into clinical practice directly via marketed devices and indirectly by improving our understanding of the underlying mechanisms of health and disease within a clinical context.