COVID-19 Outbreak Prediction with Machine Learning

Predicting the transmission trends of COVID-19: an interpretable machine learning approach based on daily, death, and imported cases

COVID-19 is caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, which has produced variants and increasing concerns about a potential resurgence since the pandemic outbreak in 2019. Predicting infectious disease outbreaks is crucial for effective prevention and control. This study aims to predict the transmission patterns of COVID-19 using machine learning, such as support vector machine, random forest, and XGBoost, using confirmed cases, death cases, and imported cases, respectively. The study categorizes the transmission trends into the three groups: L0 (decrease), L1 (maintain), and L2 (increase). We develop the risk index function to quantify changes in the transmission trends, which is applied to the classification of machine learning. A high accuracy is achieved when estimating the transmission trends for the confirmed cases (91.5-95.5%), death cases (85.6-91.8%), and imported cases (77.7-89.4%). Notably, the confirmed cases exhibit a higher level of accuracy compared to the data on the deaths and imported cases. L2 predictions outperformed L0 and L1 in all cases. Predicting L2 is important because it can lead to new outbreaks. Thus, this robust L2 prediction is crucial for the timely implementation of control policies for the management of transmission dynamics.

Fine-Grained Forecasting of COVID-19 Trends at the County Level in the United States

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, first identified in Wuhan China in December 2019, has profoundly impacted various aspects of daily life, society, healthcare systems, and global health policies. There have been more than half a billion human infections and more than 6 million deaths globally attributable to COVID-19. Although treatments and vaccines to protect against COVID-19 are now available, people continue being hospitalized and dying due to COVID-19 infections. Real-time surveillance of population-level infections, hospitalizations, and deaths has helped public health officials better allocate healthcare resources and deploy mitigation strategies. However, producing reliable, real-time, short-term disease activity forecasts (one or two weeks into the future) remains a practical challenge. The recent emergence of robust time-series forecasting methodologies based on deep learning approaches has led to clear improvements in multiple research fields. We propose a recurrent neural network model named Fine-Grained Infection Forecast Network (FIGI-Net), which utilizes a stacked bidirectional LSTM structure designed to leverage fine-grained county-level data, to produce daily forecasts of COVID-19 infection trends up to two weeks in advance. We show that FIGI-Net improves existing COVID-19 forecasting approaches and delivers accurate county-level COVID-19 disease estimates. Specifically, FIGI-Net is capable of anticipating upcoming sudden changes in disease trends such as the onset of a new outbreak or the peak of an ongoing outbreak, a skill that multiple existing state-of-the-art models fail to achieve. This improved performance is observed across locations and periods. Our enhanced forecasting methodologies may help protect human populations against future disease outbreaks.

Predicting Covid-19 pandemic waves with biologically and behaviorally informed universal differential equations

During the COVID-19 pandemic, it became clear that pandemic waves and population responses were locked in a mutual feedback loop in a classic example of a coupled behavior-disease system. We demonstrate for the first time that universal differential equation (UDE) models are able to extract this interplay from data. We develop a UDE model for COVID-19 and test its ability to make predictions of second pandemic waves. We find that UDEs are capable of learning coupled behavior-disease dynamics and predicting second waves in a variety of populations, provided they are supplied with learning biases describing simple assumptions about disease transmission and population response. Though not yet suitable for deployment as a policy-guiding tool, our results demonstrate potential benefits, drawbacks, and useful techniques when applying universal differential equations to coupled systems.

A machine learning-based universal outbreak risk prediction tool

In order to prevent and control the increasing number of serious epidemics, the ability to predict the risk caused by emerging outbreaks is essential. However, most current risk prediction tools, except EPIRISK, are limited by being designed for targeting only one specific disease and one country. Differences between countries and diseases (e.g., different economic conditions, different modes of transmission, etc.) pose challenges for building models with cross-country and cross-disease prediction capabilities. The limitation of universality affects domestic and international efforts to control and prevent pandemic outbreaks. To address this problem, we used outbreak data from 43 diseases in 206 countries to develop a universal risk prediction system that can be used across countries and diseases. This system used five machine learning models (including Neural Network XGBoost, Logistic Boost, Random Forest and Kernel SVM) to predict and vote together to make ensemble predictions. It can make predictions with around 80%-90 % accuracy from economic, cultural, social, and epidemiological factors. Three different datasets were designed to test the performance of ML models under different realistic situations. This prediction system has strong predictive ability, adaptability, and generality. It can give universal outbreak risk assessment that are not limited by border or disease type, facilitate rapid response to pandemic outbreaks, government decision-making and international cooperation.

Covid-19 triage in the emergency department 2.0: how analytics and AI transform a human-made algorithm for the prediction of clinical pathways

The Covid-19 pandemic has pushed many hospitals to their capacity limits. Therefore, a triage of patients has been discussed controversially primarily through an ethical perspective. The term triage contains many aspects such as urgency of treatment, severity of the disease and pre-existing conditions, access to critical care, or the classification of patients regarding subsequent clinical pathways starting from the emergency department. The determination of the pathways is important not only for patient care, but also for capacity planning in hospitals. We examine the performance of a human-made triage algorithm for clinical pathways which is considered a guideline for emergency departments in Germany based on a large multicenter dataset with over 4,000 European Covid-19 patients from the LEOSS registry. We find an accuracy of 28 percent and approximately 15 percent sensitivity for the ward class. The results serve as a benchmark for our extensions including an additional category of palliative care as a new label, analytics, AI, XAI, and interactive techniques. We find significant potential of analytics and AI in Covid-19 triage regarding accuracy, sensitivity, and other performance metrics whilst our interactive human-AI algorithm shows superior performance with approximately 73 percent accuracy and up to 76 percent sensitivity. The results are independent of the data preparation process regarding the imputation of missing values or grouping of comorbidities. In addition, we find that the consideration of an additional label palliative care does not improve the results.

Predicting Future Pandemics and Formulating Prevention Strategies: The Role of ChatGPT

The emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in late 2019 and its subsequent worldwide spread has emphasized the urgent need for better approaches for predicting and managing infectious disease outbreaks. One potential instrument in this effort is artificial intelligence (AI), and in specific, language models like ChatGPT (Chat Generative Pre-trained Transformer). In the present study, to explore how ChatGPT could predict future pandemics and give suggestions about the prevention strategy, our research team chatted with ChatGPT with several questions on July 12, 2023. Based on our conversation, we can conclude that AI is not a substitute for human expertise, but an adjunct to support early prediction, prevention, and management of future pandemics.

Machine learning-based mortality prediction models for smoker COVID-19 patients

BACKGROUND

The large number of SARS-Cov-2 cases during the COVID-19 global pandemic has burdened healthcare systems and created a shortage of resources and services. In recent years, mortality prediction models have shown a potential in alleviating this issue; however, these models are susceptible to biases in specific subpopulations with different risks of mortality, such as patients with prior history of smoking. The current study aims to develop a machine learning-based mortality prediction model for COVID-19 patients that have a history of smoking in the Iranian population.

METHODS

A retrospective study was conducted across six medical centers between 18 and 2020 and 15 March 2022, comprised of 678 CT scans and laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 patients that had a history of smoking. Multiple machine learning models were developed using 10-fold cross-validation. The target variable was in-hospital mortality and input features included patient demographics, levels of care, vital signs, medications, and comorbidities. Two sets of models were developed for at-admission and post-admission predictions. Subsequently, the top five prediction models were selected from at-admission models and post-admission models and their probabilities were calibrated.

RESULTS

The in-hospital mortality rate for smoker COVID-19 patients was 20.1%. For "at admission" models, the best-calibrated model was XGBoost which yielded an accuracy of 87.5% and F₁ score of 86.2%. For the "post-admission" models, XGBoost also outperformed the rest with an accuracy of 90.5% and F₁ score of 89.9%. Active smoking was among the most important features in patients' mortality prediction.

CONCLUSION

Our machine learning-based mortality prediction models have the potential to be adapted for improving the management of smoker COVID-19 patients and predicting patients' chance of survival.

Multivariate time series short term forecasting using cumulative data of coronavirus

Coronavirus emerged as a highly contagious, pathogenic virus that severely affects the respiratory system of humans. The epidemic-related data is collected regularly, which machine learning algorithms can employ to comprehend and estimate valuable information. The analysis of the gathered data through time series approaches may assist in developing more accurate forecasting models and strategies to combat the disease. This paper focuses on short-term forecasting of cumulative reported incidences and mortality. Forecasting is conducted utilizing state-of-the-art mathematical and deep learning models for multivariate time series forecasting, including extended susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR), long-short-term memory (LSTM), and vector autoregression (VAR). The SEIR model has been extended by integrating additional information such as hospitalization, mortality, vaccination, and quarantine incidences. Extensive experiments have been conducted to compare deep learning and mathematical models that enable us to estimate fatalities and incidences more precisely based on mortality in the eight most affected nations during the time of this research. The metrics like mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) are employed to gauge the model's effectiveness. The deep learning model LSTM outperformed all others in terms of forecasting accuracy. Additionally, the study explores the impact of vaccination on reported epidemics and deaths worldwide. Furthermore, the detrimental effects of ambient temperature and relative humidity on pathogenic virus dissemination have been analyzed.

A new RNN based machine learning model to forecast COVID-19 incidence, enhanced by the use of mobility data from the bike-sharing service in Madrid

As a respiratory virus, COVID-19 propagates based on human-to-human interactions with positive COVID-19 cases. The temporal evolution of new COVID-19 infections depends on the existing number of COVID-19 infections and the people's mobility. This article proposes a new model to predict upcoming COVID-19 incidence values that combines both current and near-past incidence values together with mobility data. The model is applied to the city of Madrid (Spain). The city is divided into districts. The weekly COVID-19 incidence data per district is used jointly with a mobility estimation based on the number of rides reported by the bike-sharing service in the city of Madrid (BiciMAD). The model employs a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) to detect temporal patterns for COVID-19 infections and mobility data, and combines the output of the LSTM layers into a dense layer that can learn the spatial patterns (the spread of the virus between districts). A baseline model that employs a similar RNN but only based on the COVID-19 confirmed cases with no mobility data is presented and used to estimate the model gain when adding mobility data. The results show that using the bike-sharing mobility estimation the proposed model increases the accuracy by 11.7% compared with the baseline model.

Bibliometric analysis of the use of artificial intelligence in COVID-19 based on scientific studies

Background and Aims

One such strategy is citation analysis used by researchers for research planning an article referred to by another article receives a "citation." By using bibliometric analysis, the development of research areas and authors' influence can be investigated. The current study aimed to identify and analyze the characteristics of 100 highly cited articles on the use of artificial intelligence concerning COVID-19.

Methods

On July 27, 2022, this database was searched using the keywords "artificial intelligence" and "COVID-19" in the topic. After extensive searching, all retrieved articles were sorted by the number of citations, and 100 highly cited articles were included based on the number of citations. The following data were extracted: year of publication, type of study, name of journal, country, number of citations, language, and keywords.

Results

The average number of citations for 100 highly cited articles was 138.54. The top three cited articles with 745, 596, and 549 citations. The top 100 articles were all in English and were published in 2020 and 2021. China was the most prolific country with 19 articles, followed by the United States with 15 articles and India with 10 articles.

Conclusion

The current bibliometric analysis demonstrated the significant growth of the use of artificial intelligence for COVID-19. Using these results, research priorities are more clearly defined, and researchers can focus on hot topics.

Dynamic parameterization of a modified SEIRD model to analyze and forecast the dynamics of COVID-19 outbreaks in the United States

The rapid spread of the numerous outbreaks of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has fueled interest in mathematical models designed to understand and predict infectious disease spread, with the ultimate goal of contributing to the decision making of public health authorities. Here, we propose a computational pipeline that dynamically parameterizes a modified SEIRD (susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered-deceased) model using standard daily series of COVID-19 cases and deaths, along with isolated estimates of population-level seroprevalence. We test our pipeline in five heavily impacted states of the US (New York, California, Florida, Illinois, and Texas) between March and August 2020, considering two scenarios with different calibration time horizons to assess the update in model performance as new epidemiologic data become available. Our results show a median normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE) of 2.38% and 4.28% in calibrating cumulative cases and deaths in the first scenario, and 2.41% and 2.30% when new data are assimilated in the second scenario, respectively. Then, 2-week (4-week) forecasts of the calibrated model resulted in median NRMSE of cumulative cases and deaths of 5.85% and 4.68% (8.60% and 17.94%) in the first scenario, and 1.86% and 1.93% (2.21% and 1.45%) in the second. Additionally, we show that our method provides significantly more accurate predictions of cases and deaths than a constant parameterization in the second scenario (p < 0.05). Thus, we posit that our methodology is a promising approach to analyze the dynamics of infectious disease outbreaks, and that our forecasts could contribute to designing effective pandemic-arresting public health policies.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00366-023-01816-9.

Interactome-Based Machine Learning Predicts Potential Therapeutics for COVID-19

COVID-19, the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, has been disrupting our lives for more than two years now. SARS-CoV-2 interacts with human proteins to pave its way into the human body, thereby wreaking havoc. Moreover, the mutating variants of the virus that take place in the SARS-CoV-2 genome are also a cause of concern among the masses. Thus, it is very important to understand human-spike protein-protein interactions (PPIs) in order to predict new PPIs and consequently propose drugs for the human proteins in order to fight the virus and its different mutated variants, with the mutations occurring in the spike protein. This fact motivated us to develop a complete pipeline where PPIs and drug-protein interactions can be predicted for human-SARS-CoV-2 interactions. In this regard, initially interacting data sets are collected from the literature, and noninteracting data sets are subsequently created for human-SARS-CoV-2 by considering only spike glycoprotein. On the other hand, for drug-protein interactions both interacting and noninteracting data sets are considered from DrugBank and ChEMBL databases. Thereafter, a model based on a sequence-based feature is used to code the protein sequences of human and spike proteins using the well-known Moran autocorrelation technique, while the drugs are coded using another well-known technique, viz., PaDEL descriptors, to predict new human-spike PPIs and eventually new drug-protein interactions for the top 20 predicted human proteins interacting with the original spike protein and its different mutated variants like Alpha, Beta, Delta, Gamma, and Omicron. Such predictions are carried out by random forest as it is found to perform better than other predictors, providing an accuracy of 90.53% for human-spike PPI and 96.15% for drug-protein interactions. Finally, 40 unique drugs like eicosapentaenoic acid, doxercalciferol, ciclesonide, dexamethasone, methylprednisolone, etc. are identified that target 32 human proteins like ACACA, DST, DYNC1H1, etc.

The influence of COVID-19 pandemic and coping strategies on work operation of nonfarm household enterprises in Nigeria

The purpose of this study is to investigate how COVID-19 pandemic including some coping strategies such as hand wash with soap and food consumption influences work operation or performance of nonfarm household enterprises (NHEs) in Nigeria using 2020 Living Standard Measurement Survey data of 1728 sample size. This study departs from existing study in two ways: first, the study employs multinomial logistic regression technique to ascertain the determinants of work performance of nonfarm household enterprises in Nigeria. Second, the study focuses on nonfarm enterprises such as petty trade, road side automobile and cab drivers. The results show that COVID-19 pandemic is significant with negative influence on the work operation of NHEs in Nigeria. The result of the study also reveals that coping strategy such as hand wash with soap during the pandemic is an important driver of work performance or operation of NHEs in Nigeria. Another coping strategy like food consumption by nonfarm household enterprises shows insignificant influence on work operation which implies that there is no relationship between food consumption and work operation by NHEs in Nigeria. The policy recommendation of this study, among others, is that policies should focus on procurement of sanitary material for public use. This can be achieved through public sensitisation in terms of organising workshops and conferences.

Healthy City Community Space-Oriented Structural Planning and Management Optimization under COVID-19

This work studies ways of Healthy City Construction (HCC) and Urban Governance Optimization (UGO) during the COVID-19 pandemic. The specific urban community space planning structure is proposed following a literature review on the healthy city's theoretical basis and historical development. Then, the proposed HCC-oriented community space structure is tested by surveying residents' physical and mental health and infectious risk using a questionnaire survey and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). Specifically, the particle fitness is calculated according to the original data conditions, and the community space with the highest fitness is determined. Based on the calculation, the community space's neighbors are investigated from different aspects through a questionnaire survey on patients' daily activities and community health security coverage. The results showed that: (1) The score of daily activities of community patients with respiratory diseases was 2312 before the implementation of the proposed community structure and 2715 after the implementation. Therefore, the service quality of residents increases after implementation. (2) The proposed HCC-oriented community space structure improves the physical self-control ability of chronic patients and helps them reduce their pain. This work aims to create a people-oriented healthy city community space, improve the city's "immune system," and regenerate the energy and environmental sustainability of the urban living environment.

A Review of the Machine Learning Algorithms for Covid-19 Case Analysis

The purpose of this article is to see how machine learning (ML) algorithms and applications are used in the COVID-19 inquiry and for other purposes. The available traditional methods for COVID-19 international epidemic prediction, researchers and authorities have given more attention to simple statistical and epidemiological methodologies. The inadequacy and absence of medical testing for diagnosing and identifying a solution is one of the key challenges in preventing the spread of COVID-19. A few statistical-based improvements are being strengthened to answer this challenge, resulting in a partial resolution up to a certain level. ML have advocated a wide range of intelligence-based approaches, frameworks, and equipment to cope with the issues of the medical industry. The application of inventive structure, such as ML and other in handling COVID-19 relevant outbreak difficulties, has been investigated in this article. The major goal of this article is to 1) Examining the impact of the data type and data nature, as well as obstacles in data processing for COVID-19. 2) Better grasp the importance of intelligent approaches like ML for the COVID-19 pandemic. 3) The development of improved ML algorithms and types of ML for COVID-19 prognosis. 4) Examining the effectiveness and influence of various strategies in COVID-19 pandemic. 5) To target on certain potential issues in COVID-19 diagnosis in order to motivate academics to innovate and expand their knowledge and research into additional COVID-19-affected industries.

The use of machine learning and deep learning techniques to assess proprioceptive impairments of the upper limb after stroke

BACKGROUND

Robots can generate rich kinematic datasets that have the potential to provide far more insight into impairments than standard clinical ordinal scales. Determining how to define the presence or absence of impairment in individuals using kinematic data, however, can be challenging. Machine learning techniques offer a potential solution to this problem. In the present manuscript we examine proprioception in stroke survivors using a robotic arm position matching task. Proprioception is impaired in 50-60% of stroke survivors and has been associated with poorer motor recovery and longer lengths of hospital stay. We present a simple cut-off score technique for individual kinematic parameters and an overall task score to determine impairment. We then compare the ability of different machine learning (ML) techniques and the above-mentioned task score to correctly classify individuals with or without stroke based on kinematic data.

METHODS

Participants performed an Arm Position Matching (APM) task in an exoskeleton robot. The task produced 12 kinematic parameters that quantify multiple attributes of position sense. We first quantified impairment in individual parameters and an overall task score by determining if participants with stroke fell outside of the 95% cut-off score of control (normative) values. Then, we applied five machine learning algorithms (i.e., Logistic Regression, Decision Tree, Random Forest, Random Forest with Hyperparameters Tuning, and Support Vector Machine), and a deep learning algorithm (i.e., Deep Neural Network) to classify individual participants as to whether or not they had a stroke based only on kinematic parameters using a tenfold cross-validation approach.

RESULTS

We recruited 429 participants with neuroimaging-confirmed stroke (< 35 days post-stroke) and 465 healthy controls. Depending on the APM parameter, we observed that 10.9-48.4% of stroke participants were impaired, while 44% were impaired based on their overall task score. The mean performance metrics of machine learning and deep learning models were: accuracy 82.4%, precision 85.6%, recall 76.5%, and F1 score 80.6%. All machine learning and deep learning models displayed similar classification accuracy; however, the Random Forest model had the highest numerical accuracy (83%). Our models showed higher sensitivity and specificity (AUC = 0.89) in classifying individual participants than the overall task score (AUC = 0.85) based on their performance in the APM task. We also found that variability was the most important feature in classifying performance in the APM task.

CONCLUSION

Our ML models displayed similar classification performance. ML models were able to integrate more kinematic information and relationships between variables into decision making and displayed better classification performance than the overall task score. ML may help to provide insight into individual kinematic features that have previously been overlooked with respect to clinical importance.

Nesting the SIRV model with NAR, LSTM and statistical methods to fit and predict COVID-19 epidemic trend in Africa

OBJECTIVE

Compared with other regions in the world, the transmission characteristics of the COVID-19 epidemic in Africa are more obvious, has a unique transmission mode in this region; At the same time, the data related to the COVID-19 epidemic in Africa is characterized by low data quality and incomplete data coverage, which makes the prediction method of COVID-19 epidemic suitable for other regions unable to achieve good results in Africa. In order to solve the above problems, this paper proposes a prediction method that nests the in-depth learning method in the mechanism model. From the experimental results, it can better solve the above problems and better adapt to the transmission characteristics of the COVID-19 epidemic in African countries.

METHODS

Based on the SIRV model, the COVID-19 transmission rate and trend from September 2021 to January 2022 of the top 15 African countries (South Africa, Morocco, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Zambia, Algeria, Botswana, Nigeria, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Uganda, and Ghana) in the accumulative number of COVID-19 confirmed cases was fitted by using the data from Worldometer. Non-autoregressive (NAR), Long-short term memory (LSTM), Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models, Gaussian and polynomial functions were used to predict the transmission rate β in the next 7, 14, and 21 days. Then, the predicted transmission rate βs were substituted into the SIRV model to predict the number of the COVID-19 active cases. The error analysis was conducted using root-mean-square error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE).

RESULTS

The fitting curves of the 7, 14, and 21 days were consistent with and higher than the original curves of daily active cases (DAC). The MAPE between the fitted and original 7-day DAC was only 1.15% and increased with the longer of predict days. Both the predicted β and DAC of the next 7, 14, and 21 days by NAR and LSTM nested models were closer to the real ones than other three ones. The minimum RMSEs for the predicted number of COVID-19 active cases in the next 7, 14, and 21 days were 12,974, 14,152, and 12,211 people, respectively when the order of magnitude for was 10⁶, with the minimum MAPE being 1.79%, 1.97%, and 1.64%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Nesting the SIRV model with NAR, LSTM, ARIMA methods etc. through functionalizing β respectively could obtain more accurate fitting and predicting results than these models/methods alone for the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Africa in which nesting with NAR had the highest accuracy for the 14-day and 21-day predictions. The nested model was of high significance for early understanding of the COVID-19 disease burden and preparedness for the response.

Using digital traces to build prospective and real-time county-level early warning systems to anticipate COVID-19 outbreaks in the United States

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to affect the world, and the design of strategies to curb disease outbreaks requires close monitoring of their trajectories. We present machine learning methods that leverage internet-based digital traces to anticipate sharp increases in COVID-19 activity in U.S. counties. In a complementary direction to the efforts led by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), our models are designed to detect the time when an uptrend in COVID-19 activity will occur. Motivated by the need for finer spatial resolution epidemiological insights, we build upon previous efforts conceived at the state level. Our methods-tested in an out-of-sample manner, as events were unfolding, in 97 counties representative of multiple population sizes across the United States-frequently anticipated increases in COVID-19 activity 1 to 6 weeks before local outbreaks, defined when the effective reproduction number R_t becomes larger than 1 for a period of 2 weeks.

COVID-19-The Role of Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, and Deep Learning: A Newfangled

The absolute previously infected novel coronavirus (COVID-19) was found in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. The COVID-19 epidemic has spread to more than 220 nations and territories globally and has altogether influenced each part of our day-to-day lives. As of 9th March 2022, a total aggregate of 44,78,82,185 (60,07,317) contaminated (dead) COVID-19 cases were accounted for all over the world. The quantities of contaminated cases passing despite everything increment essentially and do not indicate a controlled circumstance. The scope of this paper is to address this issue by presenting a comprehensive and comparative analysis of the existing Machine Learning (ML), Deep Learning (DL) and Artificial Intelligence (AI) based approaches used in significance in reacting to the COVID-19 epidemic and diagnosing the severe impacts. The paper provides, firstly, an overview of COVID-19 infection and highlights of this article; Secondly, an overview of exploring various executive innovations by utilizing different resources to stop the spread of COVID-19; Thirdly, a comparison of existing predicting methods of COVID-19 in the literature, with focus on ML, DL and AI-driven techniques with performance metrics; and finally, a discussion on the results of the work as well as future scope.

Multi-region machine learning-based novel ensemble approaches for predicting COVID-19 pandemic in Africa

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has produced a global pandemic, which has devastating effects on health, economy and social interactions. Despite the less contraction and spread of COVID-19 in Africa compared to some other continents in the world, Africa remains amongst the most vulnerable regions due to less technology and unequipped or poor health system. Recent happenings showed that COVID-19 may stay for years owing to the discoveries of new variants (such as Omicron) and new wave of infections in several countries. Therefore, accurate prediction of new cases is vital to make informed decisions and in evaluating the measures that should be implemented. Studies on COVID-19 prediction are limited in Africa despite the risks and dangers that the virus possessed. Hence, this study was performed to predict daily COVID-19 cases in 10 African countries spread across the north, south, east, west and central Africa considering countries with few and large number of daily COVID-19 cases. Machine learning (ML) models due to their nonlinearity and accurate prediction capabilities were employed for this purpose, including artificial neural network (ANN), adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), support vector machine (SVM) and conventional multiple linear regression (MLR) models. As any other natural process, the COVID-19 pandemic may contain both linear and nonlinear aspects. In such circumstances, neither nonlinear (ML) nor linear (MLR) models could be sufficient; hence, combining both ML and MLR models may produce better accuracy. Consequently, to improve the prediction efficiency of the ML models, novel ensemble approaches including ANN-E and SVM-E were employed. The advantage of using ensemble approaches is that they provide collective benefits of all the standalone models, thereby reducing their weaknesses and enhancing their prediction capabilities. The obtained results showed that ANFIS led to better prediction performance with MAD = 0.0106, MSE = 0.0003, RMSE = 0.0185 and R2 = 0.9059 in the validation step. The results of the proposed ensemble approaches demonstrated very high improvements in predicting the COVID-19 pandemic in Africa with MAD = 0.0073, MSE = 0.0002, RMSE = 0.0155 and R2 = 0.9616. The ANN-E improved the standalone models performance in the validation step up to 10%, 14%, 42%, 6%, 83%, 11%, 7%, 5%, 7% and 31% for Morocco, Sudan, Namibia, South Africa, Uganda, Rwanda, Nigeria, Senegal, Gabon and Cameroon, respectively. This study results offer a solid foundation in the application of ensemble approaches for predicting COVID-19 pandemic across all regions and countries in the world.

Machine learning-based IoT system for COVID-19 epidemics

The planet earth has been facing COVID-19 epidemic as a challenge in recent time. It is predictable that the world will be fighting the pandemic by taking precautions steps before an operative vaccine is found. The IoT produces huge data volumes, whether private or public, through the invention of IoT devices in the form of smart devices with an improved rate of IoT data generation. A lot of devices interact with each other in the IoT ecosystem through the cloud or servers. Various techniques have been presented in recent time, using data mining approach have proven help detect possible cases of coronaviruses. Therefore, this study uses machine learning technique (ABC and SVM) to predict COVID-19 for IoT data system. The system used two machine learning techniques which are Artificial Bee Colony algorithm with Support Vector Machine classifier on a San Francisco COVID-19 dataset. The system was evaluated using confusion matrix and had a 95% accuracy, 95% sensitivity, 95% specificity, 97% precision, 96% F1 score, 89% Matthews correlation coefficient for ABC-L-SVM and 97% accuracy, 95% sensitivity, 100% specificity, 100% precision, 97% F1 score, 93.1% Matthews correlation coefficient for ABC-Q-SVM. In conclusion, the system shows that the process of dimensionality reduction utilizing ABC feature extraction techniques can boost the classification production for SVM. It was observed that fetching relevant information from IoT systems before classification is relatively beneficial.

A survey of COVID-19 detection and prediction approaches using mobile devices, AI, and telemedicine

Since 2019, the COVID-19 pandemic has had an extremely high impact on all facets of the society and will potentially have an everlasting impact for years to come. In response to this, over the past years, there have been a significant number of research efforts on exploring approaches to combat COVID-19. In this paper, we present a survey of the current research efforts on using mobile Internet of Thing (IoT) devices, Artificial Intelligence (AI), and telemedicine for COVID-19 detection and prediction. We first present the background and then present current research in this field. Specifically, we present the research on COVID-19 monitoring and detection, contact tracing, machine learning based approaches, telemedicine, and security. We finally discuss the challenges and the future work that lay ahead in this field before concluding this paper.

Space-Distributed Traffic-Enhanced LSTM-Based Machine Learning Model for COVID-19 Incidence Forecasting

The COVID-19 virus continues to generate waves of infections around the world. With major areas in developing countries still lagging behind in vaccination campaigns, the risk of new variants that can cause re-infections worldwide makes the monitoring and forecasting of the evolution of the virus a high priority. Having accurate models able to forecast the incidence of the spread of the virus provides help to policymakers and health professionals in managing the scarce resources in an optimal way. In this paper, a new machine learning model is proposed to forecast the spread of the virus one-week ahead in a geographic area which combines mobility and COVID-19 incidence data. The area is divided into zones or districts according to the location of the COVID-19 measuring points. A traffic-driven mobility estimate among adjacent districts is proposed to capture the spatial spread of the virus. Traffic-driven mobility in adjacent districts will be used together with COVID-19 incidence data to feed a new deep learning LSTM-based model which will extract patterns from mobility-modulated COVID-19 incidence spatiotemporal data in order to optimize one-week ahead estimations. The model is trained and validated with open data available for the city of Madrid (Spain) for 3 different validation scenarios. A baseline model based on previous literature able to extract temporal patterns in COVID-19 incidence time series is also trained with the same dataset. The results show that the proposed model, based on the combination of traffic and COVID-19 incidence data, is able to outperform the baseline model in all the validation scenarios.

Artificial Intelligence and Deep Learning Assisted Rapid Diagnosis of COVID-19 from Chest Radiographical Images: A Survey

Artificial Intelligence (AI) has been applied successfully in many real-life domains for solving complex problems. With the invention of Machine Learning (ML) paradigms, it becomes convenient for researchers to predict the outcome based on past data. Nowadays, ML is acting as the biggest weapon against the COVID-19 pandemic by detecting symptomatic cases at an early stage and warning people about its futuristic effects. It is observed that COVID-19 has blown out globally so much in a short period because of the shortage of testing facilities and delays in test reports. To address this challenge, AI can be effectively applied to produce fast as well as cost-effective solutions. Plenty of researchers come up with AI-based solutions for preliminary diagnosis using chest CT Images, respiratory sound analysis, voice analysis of symptomatic persons with asymptomatic ones, and so forth. Some AI-based applications claim good accuracy in predicting the chances of being COVID-19-positive. Within a short period, plenty of research work is published regarding the identification of COVID-19. This paper has carefully examined and presented a comprehensive survey of more than 110 papers that came from various reputed sources, that is, Springer, IEEE, Elsevier, MDPI, arXiv, and medRxiv. Most of the papers selected for this survey presented candid work to detect and classify COVID-19, using deep-learning-based models from chest X-Rays and CT scan images. We hope that this survey covers most of the work and provides insights to the research community in proposing efficient as well as accurate solutions for fighting the pandemic.

Forecasting adversities of COVID-19 waves in India using intelligent computing

The second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic outburst triggered enormously all over India. This ill-fated and fatal brawl affected millions of Indian citizens, with many active and infected Indians struggling to recover from this deadly disease to date, leading to a grief situation. The present situation warrants developing a robust and sound forecasting model to evaluate the adversities of the epidemic with reasonable accuracy to assist officials in curbing this hazard. Consequently, we employed Auto-ARIMA, Auto-ETS, Auto-MLP, Auto-ELM, AM, MLP and proposed ELM methods for assessing accumulative infected COVID-19 individuals by the end of July 2021. We made 90 days of advanced forecasting, i.e., up to 24 July 2021, for the number of cumulative infected COVID-19 cases of India using all seven methods in 15 days' intervals. We fine-tuned the hyper-parameters to enhance the prediction performance of these models and observed that the proposed ELM model offers satisfactory accuracy with MAPE of 5.01, and it rendered better accuracy than the other six models. To comprehend the dataset's nature, five features are extracted. The resulting feature values encouraged further investigation of the models for an updated dataset, where the proposed model provides encouraging results.

Deep Convolutional Neural Network Mechanism Assessment of COVID-19 Severity

As an epidemic, COVID-19's core test instrument still has serious flaws. To improve the present condition, all capabilities and tools available in this field are being used to combat the pandemic. Because of the contagious characteristics of the unique coronavirus (COVID-19) infection, an overwhelming comparison with patients queues up for pulmonary X-rays, overloading physicians and radiology and significantly impacting the quality of care, diagnosis, and outbreak prevention. Given the scarcity of clinical services such as intensive care and motorized ventilation systems in the aspect of this vastly transmissible ailment, it is critical to categorize patients as per their risk categories. This research describes a novel use of the deep convolutional neural network (CNN) technique to COVID-19 illness assessment seriousness. Utilizing chest X-ray images as contribution, an unsupervised DCNN model is constructed and suggested to split COVID-19 individuals into four seriousness classrooms: low, medium, serious, and crucial with an accuracy level of 96 percent. The efficiency of the DCNN model developed with the proposed methodology is demonstrated by empirical findings on a suitably huge sum of chest X-ray scans. To the evidence relating, it is the first COVID-19 disease incidence evaluation research with four different phases, to use a reasonably high number of X-ray images dataset and a DCNN with nearly all hyperparameters dynamically adjusted by the variable selection optimization task.

COVID-19 forecasting using new viral variants and vaccination effectiveness models

Recently, a high number of daily positive COVID-19 cases have been reported in regions with relatively high vaccination rates; hence, booster vaccination has become necessary. In addition, infections caused by the different variants and correlated factors have not been discussed in depth. With large variabilities and different co-factors, it is difficult to use conventional mathematical models to forecast the incidence of COVID-19. Machine learning based on long short-term memory was applied to forecasting the time series of new daily positive cases (DPC), serious cases, hospitalized cases, and deaths. Data acquired from regions with high rates of vaccination, such as Israel, were blended with the current data of other regions in Japan such that the effect of vaccination was considered in efficient manner. The protection provided by symptomatic infection was also considered in terms of the population effectiveness of vaccination as well as the vaccination protection waning effect and ratio and infectivity of different viral variants. To represent changes in public behavior, public mobility and interactions through social media were also included in the analysis. Comparing the observed and estimated new DPC in Tel Aviv, Israel, the parameters characterizing vaccination effectiveness and the waning protection from infection were well estimated; the vaccination effectiveness of the second dose after 5 months and the third dose after two weeks from infection by the delta variant were 0.24 and 0.95, respectively. Using the extracted parameters regarding vaccination effectiveness, DPC in three major prefectures of Japan were replicated. The key factor influencing the prevention of COVID-19 transmission is the vaccination effectiveness at the population level, which considers the waning protection from vaccination rather than the percentage of fully vaccinated people. The threshold of the efficiency at the population level was estimated as 0.3 in Tel Aviv and 0.4 in Tokyo, Osaka, and Aichi. Moreover, a weighting scheme associated with infectivity results in more accurate forecasting by the infectivity model of viral variants. Results indicate that vaccination effectiveness and infectivity of viral variants are important factors in future forecasting of DPC. Moreover, this study demonstrate a feasible way to project the effect of vaccination using data obtained from other country.

A sustainable advanced artificial intelligence-based framework for analysis of COVID-19 spread

The idea of sustainability aims to provide a protected operating environment that supports without risking the capacity of coming generations and to satisfy their demands in the future. With the advent of artificial intelligence, big data, and the Internet of Things, there is a tremendous paradigm transformation in how environmental data are managed and handled for sustainable applications in smart cities and societies. The ongoing COVID-19 (Coronavirus Disease) pandemic maintains a mortifying impact on the world population's health. A continuous rise in the number of positive cases produced much stress on governing organizations worldwide, and they are finding it challenging to handle the situation. Artificial Intelligence methods can be extended quite efficiently to monitor the disease, predict the pandemic's growth, and outline policies and strategies to control its transmission or spread. The combination of healthcare, along with big data, and machine learning methods, can improve the quality of life by providing better care services and creating cost-effective systems. Researchers have been using these techniques to fight against the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper emphasizes on the analysis of different factors and symptoms and presents a sustainable framework to predict and detect COVID-19. Firstly, we have collected a data set having different symptoms information of COVID-19. Then, we have explored various machine learning algorithms or methods: including Logistic Regression, Naive Bayes, Decision Tree, Random Forest Classifier, Extreme Gradient Boost, K-Nearest Neighbour, and Support Vector Machine to predict and detect COVID-19 lab results, using different symptoms information. The model might help to predict and detect the long-term spread of a pandemic and implement advanced proactive measures. The findings show that the Logistic Regression and Support Vector Machine outperformed from other machine learning algorithms in terms of accuracy; algorithms exhibit 97.66% and 98% results, respectively.

Aspect-Based Sentiment Analysis of Online Reviews for Business Intelligence

COVID-19 pandemic has affected the patients to a large extent who are in immediate need of medical care. Now-a-days people rely on online reviews shared on review websites to gather information about hospitals like the availability of beds, availability of ventilators etc. However, these reviews are large in number and unstructured which makes it difficult to interpret them. Hence, the authors have proposed a methodology that will apply an aspect based sentiment analysis on the reviews to gain meaningful insights of the hospital based on different aspects like doctor, staff, facilities etc. For the purpose of empirical validation, a total of 26,071 reviews pertaining to 325 hospitals were scrapped. The authors concluded that the study can be useful for patients as it helps them to select the hospital which best suits them. The study also helps hospital administration to improve the current services according to needs of the patients.

A Survey on Machine Learning and Internet of Medical Things-Based Approaches for Handling COVID-19: Meta-Analysis

Early diagnosis, prioritization, screening, clustering, and tracking of patients with COVID-19, and production of drugs and vaccines are some of the applications that have made it necessary to use a new style of technology to involve, manage, and deal with this epidemic. Strategies backed by artificial intelligence (A.I.) and the Internet of Things (IoT) have been undeniably effective to understand how the virus works and prevent it from spreading. Accordingly, the main aim of this survey is to critically review the ML, IoT, and the integration of IoT and ML-based techniques in the applications related to COVID-19, from the diagnosis of the disease to the prediction of its outbreak. According to the main findings, IoT provided a prompt and efficient approach to tracking the disease spread. On the other hand, most of the studies developed by ML-based techniques aimed at the detection and handling of challenges associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. Among different approaches, Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), Support Vector Machine, Genetic CNN, and pre-trained CNN, followed by ResNet have demonstrated the best performances compared to other methods.

Comparison of Conventional Modeling Techniques with the Neural Network Autoregressive Model (NNAR): Application to COVID-19 Data

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic continues to destroy human life around the world. Almost every country throughout the globe suffered from this pandemic, forcing various governments to apply different restrictions to reduce its impact. In this study, we compare different time-series models with the neural network autoregressive model (NNAR). The study used COVID-19 data in Pakistan from February 26, 2020, to February 18, 2022, as a training and testing data set for modeling. Different models were applied and estimated on the training data set, and these models were assessed on the testing data set. Based on the mean absolute scaled error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) for the training and testing data sets, the NNAR model outperformed the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and other competing models indicating that the NNAR model is the most appropriate for forecasting. Forecasts from the NNAR model showed that the cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases will be 1,597,180 and cumulative confirmed COVID-19 deaths will be 32,628 on April 18, 2022. We encourage the Pakistan Government to boost its immunization policy.

Artificial intelligence for forecasting and diagnosing COVID-19 pandemic: A focused review

The outbreak of novel corona virus 2019 (COVID-19) has been treated as a public health crisis of global concern by the World Health Organization (WHO). COVID-19 pandemic hugely affected countries worldwide raising the need to exploit novel, alternative and emerging technologies to respond to the emergency created by the weak health-care systems. In this context, Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques can give a valid support to public health authorities, complementing traditional approaches with advanced tools. This study provides a comprehensive review of methods, algorithms, applications, and emerging AI technologies that can be utilized for forecasting and diagnosing COVID-19. The main objectives of this review are summarized as follows. (i) Understanding the importance of AI approaches such as machine learning and deep learning for COVID-19 pandemic; (ii) discussing the efficiency and impact of these methods for COVID-19 forecasting and diagnosing; (iii) providing an extensive background description of AI techniques to help non-expert to better catch the underlying concepts; (iv) for each work surveyed, give a detailed analysis of the rationale behind the approach, highlighting the method used, the type and size of data analyzed, the validation method, the target application and the results achieved; (v) focusing on some future challenges in COVID-19 forecasting and diagnosing.

Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 spreading under the influence of environmental factors and strategies to tackle the pandemic: A systematic review

COVID-19 is deemed as the most critical world health calamity of the 21st century, leading to dramatic life loss. There is a pressing need to understand the multi-stage dynamics, including transmission routes of the virus and environmental conditions due to the possibility of multiple waves of COVID-19 in the future. In this paper, a systematic examination of the literature is conducted associating the virus-laden-aerosol and transmission of these microparticles into the multimedia environment, including built environments. Particularly, this paper provides a critical review of state-of-the-art modelling tools apt for COVID-19 spread and transmission pathways. GIS-based, risk-based, and artificial intelligence-based tools are discussed for their application in the surveillance and forecasting of COVID-19. Primary environmental factors that act as simulators for the spread of the virus include meteorological variation, low air quality, pollen abundance, and spatial-temporal variation. However, the influence of these environmental factors on COVID-19 spread is still equivocal because of other non-pharmaceutical factors. The limitations of different modelling methods suggest the need for a multidisciplinary approach, including the 'One-Health' concept. Extended One-Health-based decision tools would assist policymakers in making informed decisions such as social gatherings, indoor environment improvement, and COVID-19 risk mitigation by adapting the control measurements.

Temporal deep learning architecture for prediction of COVID-19 cases in India

To combat the recent coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), academician and clinician are in search of new approaches to predict the COVID-19 outbreak dynamic trends that may slow down or stop the pandemic. Epidemiological models like Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) and its variants are helpful to understand the dynamics trend of pandemic that may be used in decision making to optimize possible controls from the infectious disease. But these epidemiological models based on mathematical assumptions may not predict the real pandemic situation. Recently the new machine learning approaches are being used to understand the dynamic trend of COVID-19 spread. In this paper, we designed the recurrent and convolutional neural network models: vanilla LSTM, stacked LSTM, ED_LSTM, BiLSTM, CNN, and hybrid CNN+LSTM model to capture the complex trend of COVID-19 outbreak and perform the forecasting of COVID-19 daily confirmed cases of 7, 14, 21 days for India and its four most affected states (Maharashtra, Kerala, Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu). The root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) evaluation metric are computed on the testing data to demonstrate the relative performance of these models. The results show that the stacked LSTM and hybrid CNN+LSTM models perform best relative to other models.

COVID-19 forecasting and intervention planning using gated recurrent unit and evolutionary algorithm

The rapid spread of COVID-19, caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, has had and continues to pose a significant threat to global health. We propose a predictive model based on the gated recurrent unit (GRU) that investigates the influence of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on the progression of COVID-19. The proposed model is validated by case studies for multiple states in the United States. It should be noted that the proposed model can be generalized to other regions of interest. The results show that the predictive model can achieve accurate forecasts across the US. The forecast is then utilized to identify the optimal mitigation policies. The goal is to identify the best stringency level for each policy that can minimize the total number of new COVID-19 cases while minimizing the mitigation costs. A meta-heuristics method, named multi-population evolutionary algorithm with differential evolution (MPEA-DE), has been developed to identify optimal mitigation strategies that minimize COVID-19 infection cases while reducing economic and other negative implications. We compared the optimal mitigation strategies identified by the MPEA-DE model with three baseline search strategies. The results show that MPEA-DE performs better than other baseline models based on prescription dominance.

Impact analysis of environmental and social factors on early-stage COVID-19 transmission in China by machine learning

As a highly contagious disease, COVID-19 caused a worldwide pandemic and it is still ongoing. However, the infection in China has been successfully controlled although its initial transmission was also nationwide and has caused a serious public health crisis. The analysis on the early-stage COVID-19 transmission in China is worth investigating for its guiding significance on prevention to other countries and regions. In this study, we conducted the experiments from the perspectives of COVID-19 occurrence and intensity. We eliminated unimportant factors from 113 variables and applied four machine learning-based classification and regression models to predict COVID-19 occurrence and intensity, respectively. The influence of each important factor was analysed when applicable. Our optimal model on COVID-19 occurrence prediction presented an accuracy of 91.91% and the best R² of intensity prediction reached 0.778. Linear regression-based model was identified as unable to fit and predict the intensity, and thus only the variable influence on COVID-19 occurrence can be explained. We found that (1) CO VID-19 was more likely to occur in prosperous cities closer to the epicentre and located on higher altitudes, (2) and the occurrence was higher under extreme weather and high minimum relative humidity. (3) Most air pollutants increased the risk of COVID-19 occurrence except NO₂ and O₃, and there existed a lag effect of 6-7 days. (4) NPIs (non-pharmaceutical interventions) did not show apparent effect until two weeks after.

Hybrid Deep Learning Techniques for Predicting Complex Phenomena: A Review on COVID-19

Complex phenomena have some common characteristics, such as nonlinearity, complexity, and uncertainty. In these phenomena, components typically interact with each other and a part of the system may affect other parts or vice versa. Accordingly, the human brain, the Earth’s global climate, the spreading of viruses, the economic organizations, and some engineering systems such as the transportation systems and power grids can be categorized into these phenomena. Since both analytical approaches and AI methods have some specific characteristics in solving complex problems, a combination of these techniques can lead to new hybrid methods with considerable performance. This is why several types of research have recently been conducted to benefit from these combinations to predict the spreading of COVID-19 and its dynamic behavior. In this review, 80 peer-reviewed articles, book chapters, conference proceedings, and preprints with a focus on employing hybrid methods for forecasting the spreading of COVID-19 published in 2020 have been aggregated and reviewed. These documents have been extracted from Google Scholar and many of them have been indexed on the Web of Science. Since there were many publications on this topic, the most relevant and effective techniques, including statistical models and deep learning (DL) or machine learning (ML) approach, have been surveyed in this research. The main aim of this research is to describe, summarize, and categorize these effective techniques considering their restrictions to be used as trustable references for scientists, researchers, and readers to make an intelligent choice to use the best possible method for their academic needs. Nevertheless, considering the fact that many of these techniques have been used for the first time and need more evaluations, we recommend none of them as an ideal way to be used in their project. Our study has shown that these methods can hold the robustness and reliability of statistical methods and the power of computation of DL ones.

Deep Spatiotemporal Model for COVID-19 Forecasting

COVID-19 has caused millions of infections and deaths over the last 2 years. Machine learning models have been proposed as an alternative to conventional epidemiologic models in an effort to optimize short- and medium-term forecasts that will help health authorities to optimize the use of policies and resources to tackle the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Although previous machine learning models based on time pattern analysis for COVID-19 sensed data have shown promising results, the spread of the virus has both spatial and temporal components. This manuscript proposes a new deep learning model that combines a time pattern extraction based on the use of a Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) over a preceding spatial analysis based on a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) applied to a sequence of COVID-19 incidence images. The model has been validated with data from the 286 health primary care centers in the Comunidad de Madrid (Madrid region, Spain). The results show improved scores in terms of both root mean square error (RMSE) and explained variance (EV) when compared with previous models that have mainly focused on the temporal patterns and dependencies.

Enhancing COVID-19 Epidemics Forecasting Accuracy by Combining Real-time and Historical Data from Multiple Internet-based Sources: Analysis of Social Media Data, Online News Articles, and Search Queries

BACKGROUND

The SARS-COV-2 virus and its variants pose extraordinary challenges for public health worldwide. Timely and accurate forecasting of the COVID-19 epidemic is the key to sustaining interventions and policies and efficient resources allocation. Internet-based data sources have shown great potential to supplement traditional infectious disease surveillance, and the combination of different Internet-based data sources has shown greater power to enhance epidemic forecasting accuracy than using a single Internet-based data source. However, existing methods incorporating multiple Internet-based data sources only used real-time data from these sources as exogenous inputs but did not take all the historical data into account. Moreover, the predictive power of different Internet-based data sources in providing early warning for COVID-19 outbreaks has not been fully explored.

OBJECTIVE

The main aim of our study is to explore whether combining real-time and historical data from multiple Internet-based sources could improve the COVID-19 forecasting accuracy over the existing baseline models. A secondary aim is to explore the COVID-19 forecasting timeliness based on different Internet-based data sources.

METHODS

We first used core terms and symptoms-related keywords-based methods to extract COVID-19 related Internet-based data from December 21, 2019, to February 29, 2020. The Internet-based data we explored included 90,493,912 online news articles, 37,401,900 microblogs, and all the Baidu search query data during that period. We then proposed an autoregressive model with exogenous inputs, incorporating the real-time and historical data from multiple Internet-based sources. Our proposed model was compared with baseline models, and all the models were tested during the first wave of COVID-19 epidemics in Hubei province and the rest of mainland China separately. We also used the lagged Pearson correlations for the COVID-19 forecasting timeliness analysis.

RESULTS

Our proposed model achieved the highest accuracy in all the five accuracy measures, compared with all the baseline models of both Hubei province and the rest of mainland China. In the mainland China except for Hubei, the COVID-19 epidemics forecasting accuracy differences between our proposed model (model i) and all the other baseline models were statistically significant (model 1, t=-8.722, P<.001; model 2, t=-5.000, P<.001, model 3, t=-1.882, P =0.063, model 4, t=-4.644, P<.001; model 5, t=-4.488, P<.001). In Hubei province, our proposed model's forecasting accuracy improved significantly compared with the baseline model using historical COVID-19 new confirmed case counts only (model 1, t=-1.732, P=0.086). Our results also showed that Internet-based sources could provide a 2-6 days earlier warning for COVID-19 outbreaks.

CONCLUSIONS

Our approach incorporating real-time and historical data from multiple Internet-based sources could improve forecasting accuracy for COVID-19 epidemics and its variants, which may help improve public health agencies' interventions and resources allocation in mitigating and controlling new waves of COVID-19 or other relevant epidemics.

CLINICALTRIAL

The medical and societal impact of big data analytics and artificial intelligence applications in combating pandemics: A review focused on Covid-19

With Covid-19 impacting communities in different ways, research has increasingly turned to big data analytics (BDA) and artificial intelligence (AI) tools to track and monitor the virus's spread and its effect on humanity and the global economy. The purpose of this study is to conduct an in-depth literature review to identify how BDA and AI were involved in the management of Covid-19 (while considering diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI)). The rigorous search resulted in a portfolio of 607 articles, retrieved from the Web of Science database, where content analysis has been conducted. This study identifies the BDA and AI applications developed to deal with the initial Covid-19 outbreak and the containment of the pandemic, along with their benefits for the social good. Moreover, this study reveals the DEI challenges related to these applications, ways to mitigate the concerns, and how to develop viable techniques to deal with similar crises in the future. The article pool recognized the high presence of machine learning (ML) and the role of mobile technology, social media and telemedicine in the use of BDA and AI during Covid-19. This study offers a collective insight into many of the key issues and underlying complexities affecting public health and society from Covid-19, and the solutions offered from information systems and technological perspectives.

Predicting the impact of the third wave of COVID-19 in India using hybrid statistical machine learning models: A time series forecasting and sentiment analysis approach

BACKGROUND

Since January 2020, India has faced two waves of COVID-19; preparation for the upcoming waves is the primary challenge for public health sectors and governments. Therefore, it is important to forecast future cumulative confirmed cases to plan and implement control measures effectively.

METHODS

This study proposed a hybrid autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and Prophet model to predict daily confirmed and cumulative confirmed cases. The built-in auto.arima function was first used to select the optimal hyperparameter values of the ARIMA model. Then, the modified ARIMA model was used to find the best fit between the test and forecast data to find the best model parameter combinations. Articles, blog posts, and news stories from virologists, scientists, and health experts related to the third wave of COVID-19 were gathered using the Python web scraping package Beautiful Soup. Their opinions (sentiments) toward the potential third wave were analyzed using natural language processing (NLP) libraries.

RESULTS

A spike in daily confirmed and cumulative confirmed cases was predicted in India in the next 180 days based on past time series data. The results were validated using various analytical tools and evaluation metrics, producing a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.14 and a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 0.06. The NLP processing results revealed negative sentiments in most articles and blogs, with few exceptions.

CONCLUSION

The findings of this study suggest that there will be more active cases in the upcoming days. The proposed models can forecast future daily confirmed and cumulative confirmed cases. This study will help the country and states plan appropriate public health measures for the upcoming waves of COVID-19.

A Non-Uniform Continuous Cellular Automata for Analyzing and Predicting the Spreading Patterns of COVID-19

During the COVID-19 outbreak, modeling the spread of infectious diseases became a challenging research topic due to its rapid spread and high mortality rate. The main objective of a standard epidemiological model is to estimate the number of infected, suspected, and recovered from the illness by mathematical modeling. This model does not capture how the disease transmits between neighboring regions through interaction. A more general framework such as Cellular Automata (CA) is required to accommodate a more complex spatial interaction within the epidemiological model. The critical issue of modeling in the spread of diseases is how to reduce the prediction error. This research aims to formulate the influence of the interaction of a neighborhood on the spreading pattern of COVID-19 using a neighborhood frame model in a Cellular-Automata (CA) approach and obtain a predictive model for the COVID-19 spread with the error reduction to improve the model. We propose a non-uniform continuous CA (N-CCA) as our contribution to demonstrate the influence of interactions on the spread of COVID-19. The model has succeeded in demonstrating the influence of the interaction between regions on the COVID-19 spread, as represented by the coefficients obtained. These coefficients result from multiple regression models. The coefficient obtained represents the population’s behavior interacting with its neighborhood in a cell and influences the number of cases that occur the next day. The evaluation of the N-CCA model is conducted by root mean square error (RMSE) for the difference in the number of cases between prediction and real cases per cell in each region. This study demonstrates that this approach improves the prediction of accuracy for 14 days in the future using data points from the past 42 days, compared to a baseline model.

Machine Learning, Deep Learning, and Mathematical Models to Analyze Forecasting and Epidemiology of COVID-19: A Systematic Literature Review

COVID-19 is a disease caused by SARS-CoV-2 and has been declared a worldwide pandemic by the World Health Organization due to its rapid spread. Since the first case was identified in Wuhan, China, the battle against this deadly disease started and has disrupted almost every field of life. Medical staff and laboratories are leading from the front, but researchers from various fields and governmental agencies have also proposed healthy ideas to protect each other. In this article, a Systematic Literature Review (SLR) is presented to highlight the latest developments in analyzing the COVID-19 data using machine learning and deep learning algorithms. The number of studies related to Machine Learning (ML), Deep Learning (DL), and mathematical models discussed in this research has shown a significant impact on forecasting and the spread of COVID-19. The results and discussion presented in this study are based on the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) guidelines. Out of 218 articles selected at the first stage, 57 met the criteria and were included in the review process. The findings are therefore associated with those 57 studies, which recorded that CNN (DL) and SVM (ML) are the most used algorithms for forecasting, classification, and automatic detection. The importance of the compartmental models discussed is that the models are useful for measuring the epidemiological features of COVID-19. Current findings suggest that it will take around 1.7 to 140 days for the epidemic to double in size based on the selected studies. The 12 estimates for the basic reproduction range from 0 to 7.1. The main purpose of this research is to illustrate the use of ML, DL, and mathematical models that can be helpful for the researchers to generate valuable solutions for higher authorities and the healthcare industry to reduce the impact of this epidemic.

Statistical Analysis and Machine Learning Prediction of Disease Outcomes for COVID-19 and Pneumonia Patients

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread all over the world and impacted many people’s lives. The characteristics of COVID-19 and other types of pneumonia have both similarities and differences, which confused doctors initially to separate and understand them. Here we presented a retrospective analysis for both COVID-19 and other types of pneumonia by combining the COVID-19 clinical data, eICU and MIMIC-III databases. Machine learning models, including logistic regression, random forest, XGBoost and deep learning neural networks, were developed to predict the severity of COVID-19 infections as well as the mortality of pneumonia patients in intensive care units (ICU). Statistical analysis and feature interpretation, including the analysis of two-level attention mechanisms on both temporal and non-temporal features, were utilized to understand the associations between different clinical variables and disease outcomes. For the COVID-19 data, the XGBoost model obtained the best performance on the test set (AUROC = 1.000 and AUPRC = 0.833). On the MIMIC-III and eICU pneumonia datasets, our deep learning model (Bi-LSTM_Attn) was able to identify clinical variables associated with death of pneumonia patients (AUROC = 0.924 and AUPRC = 0.802 for 24-hour observation window and 12-hour prediction window). The results highlighted clinical indicators, such as the lymphocyte counts, that may help the doctors to predict the disease progression and outcomes for both COVID-19 and other types of pneumonia.

Advanced Computing Approach for Modeling and Prediction COVID-19 Pandemic

The emergence of many strains of the coronavirus, including the latest omicron strain, which is spreading at a very high speed, is leading to the World Health Organization's (WHO) concern about the creation of this new mutation. Therefore, there is a strong motivation for modeling and predicting COVID-19 to control the number of cases of the disease. The proposed system for predicting the number of cases of COVID-19 can help governments take precautions to prevent the spread of the disease. In this paper, a statistical logistic growth model was employed to predict the spread of COVID-19 in Australia and Brazil. The datasets were collected from the surveillance systems in Australia and Brazil from March 13, 2020, to December 12, 2021, for 641 days. This proposed method used a tested logistic growth model for the complex spread of COVID-19 and forecasted future values within a time interval of six days. The results of the predicted, cumulative, confirmed cases indicate the robustness and effectiveness of the proposed system, which was categorized by time-dependent dynamics. The coefficient of determination (R) metric was used to evaluate the model to predict COVID-19, and the proposed system scored the highest correlation (R 2 = 99%). The proposed system has the potential to contribute to public health by making decisions about how to prevent the spread of COVID-19.

Using the SARIMA Model to Forecast the Fourth Global Wave of Cumulative Deaths from COVID-19: Evidence from 12 Hard-Hit Big Countries

The COVID-19 pandemic is a serious threat to all of us. It has caused an unprecedented shock to the world’s economy, and it has interrupted the lives and livelihood of millions of people. In the last two years, a large body of literature has attempted to forecast the main dimensions of the COVID-19 outbreak using a wide set of models. In this paper, I forecast the short- to mid-term cumulative deaths from COVID-19 in 12 hard-hit big countries around the world as of 20 August 2021. The data used in the analysis were extracted from the Our World in Data COVID-19 dataset. Both non-seasonal and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving averages (ARIMA and SARIMA) were estimated. The analysis showed that: (i) ARIMA/SARIMA forecasts were sufficiently accurate in both the training and test set by always outperforming the simple alternative forecasting techniques chosen as benchmarks (Mean, Naïve, and Seasonal Naïve); (ii) SARIMA models outperformed ARIMA models in 47 out 48 metrics (in forecasting future values), i.e., on 97.9% of all the considered forecast accuracy measures (mean absolute error [MAE], mean absolute percentage error [MAPE], mean absolute scaled error [MASE], and the root mean squared error [RMSE]), suggesting a clear seasonal pattern in the data; and (iii) the forecasted values from SARIMA models fitted very well the observed (real-time) data for the period 21 August 2021–19 September 2021 for almost all the countries analyzed. This article shows that SARIMA can be safely used for both the short- and medium-term predictions of COVID-19 deaths. Thus, this approach can help government authorities to monitor and manage the huge pressure that COVID-19 is exerting on national healthcare systems.

An approach to forecast impact of Covid-19 using supervised machine learning model

The Covid-19 pandemic has emerged as one of the most disquieting worldwide public health emergencies of the 21st century and has thrown into sharp relief, among other factors, the dire need for robust forecasting techniques for disease detection, alleviation as well as prevention. Forecasting has been one of the most powerful statistical methods employed the world over in various disciplines for detecting and analyzing trends and predicting future outcomes based on which timely and mitigating actions can be undertaken. To that end, several statistical methods and machine learning techniques have been harnessed depending upon the analysis desired and the availability of data. Historically speaking, most predictions thus arrived at have been short term and country-specific in nature. In this work, multimodel machine learning technique is called EAMA for forecasting Covid-19 related parameters in the long-term both within India and on a global scale have been proposed. This proposed EAMA hybrid model is well-suited to predictions based on past and present data. For this study, two datasets from the Ministry of Health & Family Welfare of India and Worldometers, respectively, have been exploited. Using these two datasets, long-term data predictions for both India and the world have been outlined, and observed that predicted data being very similar to real-time values. The experiment also conducted for statewise predictions of India and the countrywise predictions across the world and it has been included in the Appendix.

Predicting the number of COVID-19 infections and deaths in USA

BACKGROUND

Uncertainties surrounding the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) remain a major global health challenge and requires attention. Researchers and medical experts have made remarkable efforts to reduce the number of cases and prevent future outbreaks through vaccines and other measures. However, there is little evidence on how severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection entropy can be applied in predicting the possible number of infections and deaths. In addition, more studies on how the COVID-19 infection density contributes to the rise in infections are needed. This study demonstrates how the SARS-COV-2 daily infection entropy can be applied in predicting the number of infections within a given period. In addition, the infection density within a given population attributes to an increase in the number of COVID-19 cases and, consequently, the new variants.

RESULTS

Using the COVID-19 initial data reported by Johns Hopkins University, World Health Organization (WHO) and Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID), the result shows that the original SAR-COV-2 strain has R0<1 with an initial infection growth rate entropy of 9.11 bits for the United States (U.S.). At close proximity, the average infection time for an infected individual to infect others within a susceptible population is approximately 7 minutes. Assuming no vaccines were available, in the U.S., the number of infections could range between 41,220,199 and 82,440,398 in late March 2022 with approximately, 1,211,036 deaths. However, with the available vaccines, nearly 48 Million COVID-19 cases and 706, 437 deaths have been prevented.

CONCLUSION

The proposed technique will contribute to the ongoing investigation of the COVID-19 pandemic and a blueprint to address the uncertainties surrounding the pandemic.

Large deviations of a susceptible-infected-recovered model around the epidemic threshold

We numerically study the dynamics of the SIR disease model on small-world networks by using a large-deviation approach. This allows us to obtain the probability density function of the total fraction of infected nodes and of the maximum fraction of simultaneously infected nodes down to very small probability densities like 10^{-2500}. We analyze the structure of the disease dynamics and observed three regimes in all probability density functions, which correspond to quick mild, quick extremely severe, and sustained severe dynamical evolutions, respectively. Furthermore, the mathematical rate functions of the densities are investigated. The results indicate that the so-called large-deviation property holds for the SIR model. Finally, we measured correlations with other quantities like the duration of an outbreak or the peak position of the fraction of infections, also in the rare regions which are not accessible by standard simulation techniques.

Interpretable Temporal Attention Network for COVID-19 forecasting

The worldwide outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has triggered an unprecedented global health and economic crisis. Early and accurate forecasts of COVID-19 and evaluation of government interventions are crucial for governments to take appropriate interventions to contain the spread of COVID-19. In this work, we propose the Interpretable Temporal Attention Network (ITANet) for COVID-19 forecasting and inferring the importance of government interventions. The proposed model is with an encoder–decoder architecture and employs long short-term memory (LSTM) for temporal feature extraction and multi-head attention for long-term dependency caption. The model simultaneously takes historical information, a priori known future information, and pseudo future information into consideration, where the pseudo future information is learned with the covariate forecasting network (CFN) and multi-task learning (MTL). In addition, we also propose the degraded teacher forcing (DTF) method to train the model efficiently. Compared with other models, the ITANet is more effective in the forecasting of COVID-19 new confirmed cases. The importance of government interventions against COVID-19 is further inferred by the Temporal Covariate Interpreter (TCI) of the model.