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Marquardt T, Kaczmarek S, Niedbała W. Distribution of euptyctimous mite Phthiracarus longulus (Acari: Oribatida) under future climate change in the Palearctic. Sci Rep 2024; 14:21913. [PMID: 39300195 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-72852-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/25/2024] [Accepted: 09/11/2024] [Indexed: 09/22/2024] Open
Abstract
The aim of this paper is to prepare, describe and discuss the models of the current and future distribution of Phthiracarus longulus (Koch, 1841) (Acari: Oribatida: Euptyctima), the oribatid mite species widely distributed within the Palearctic. We used the maximum entropy (MAXENT) method to predict its current and future (until the year 2100) distribution based on macroclimatic bio-variables. To our best knowledge, this is the first-ever prediction of distribution in mite species using environmental niche modelling. The main thermal variables that shape the current distribution of P. longulus are the temperature annual range, mean temperature of the coldest quarter and the annual mean temperature, while for precipitation variables the most important is precipitation of the driest quarter. Regardless of the climatic change scenario (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5) our models show generally the northward shift of species range, and in Southern Europe the loss of most habitats with parallel upslope shift. According to our current model, the most of suitable habitats for P. longulus are located in the European part of Palearctic. In general, the species range is mostly affected in Europe. The most stable areas of P. longulus distribution were the Jutland with surrounding southern coasts of Scandinavia, islands of the Danish Straits and the region of Trondheim Fjord.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tomasz Marquardt
- Department of Evolutionary Biology, Faculty of Biological Sciences, Kazimierz Wielki University, Bydgoszcz, Poland.
| | - Sławomir Kaczmarek
- Department of Evolutionary Biology, Faculty of Biological Sciences, Kazimierz Wielki University, Bydgoszcz, Poland
| | - Wojciech Niedbała
- Department of Animal Taxonomy and Ecology, Faculty of Biology, Adam Mickiewicz University, Poznań, Poland
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Advancing the Science of Environmental Flow Management for Protection of Temporarily Closed Estuaries and Coastal Lagoons. WATER 2021. [DOI: 10.3390/w13050595] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
The science needed to inform management of environmental flows to temporarily closed estuaries and coastal lagoons is decades behind the state of knowledge for rivers and large embayments. These globally ubiquitous small systems, which are often seasonally closed to the ocean’s influence, are under particular threat associated with hydrologic alteration because of changes in atershed land use, water use practices, and climate change. Managing environmental flows in these systems is complicated by their tight coupling with watershed processes, variable states because of intermittently closing mouths, and reliance on regional scale sediment transport and littoral processes. Here we synthesize our current understanding of ecohydrology in temporarily closed estuaries (TCEs) and coastal lagoons and propose a prioritized research agenda aimed at advancing understanding of ecological responses to altered flow regimes in TCEs. Key research needs include agreeing on a consistent typology, improving models that couple watershed and ocean forcing at appropriate spatial and temporal scales, quantifying stress–response relationships associated with hydrologic alteration, improving tools to establish desired conditions that account for climate change and consider cultural/indigenous objectives, improving tools to measure ecosystem function and social/cultural values, and developing monitoring and adaptive management programs that can inform environmental flow management in consideration of other stressors and across different habitat types. Coordinated global efforts to address the identified research gaps can help guide management actions aimed at reducing or mitigating potential impacts of hydrologic alteration and climate change through informed management of freshwater inflows.
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Brice MH, Vissault S, Vieira W, Gravel D, Legendre P, Fortin MJ. Moderate disturbances accelerate forest transition dynamics under climate change in the temperate-boreal ecotone of eastern North America. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2020; 26:4418-4435. [PMID: 32358990 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15143] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/28/2019] [Accepted: 04/01/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Several temperate tree species are expected to migrate northward and colonize boreal forests in response to climate change. Tree migrations could lead to transitions in forest types, but these could be influenced by several non-climatic factors, such as disturbances and soil conditions. We analysed over 10,000 forest inventory plots, sampled from 1970 to 2018 in meridional Québec, Canada, to identify what environmental conditions promote or prevent regional-scale forest transitions. We used a continuous-time multi-state Markov model to quantify the probabilities of transitions between forest states (temperate, boreal, mixed, pioneer) as a function of climate (mean temperature and climate moisture index during the growing season), soil conditions (pH and drainage) and disturbances (severity levels of natural disturbances and logging). We further investigate how different disturbance types and severities impact forests' short-term transient dynamics and long-term equilibrium using properties of Markov transition matrices. The most common transitions observed during the study period were from mixed to temperate states, as well as from pioneer to boreal forests. In our study, transitions were mainly driven by natural and anthropogenic disturbances and secondarily by climate, whereas soil characteristics exerted relatively minor constraints. While major disturbances only promoted transitions to the pioneer state, moderate disturbances increased the probability of transition from mixed to temperate states. Long-term projections of our model under the current environmental conditions indicate that moderate disturbances would promote a northward shift of the temperate forest. Moreover, disturbances reduced turnover and convergence time for all transitions, thereby accelerating forest dynamics. Contrary to our expectation, mixed to temperate transitions were not driven by temperate tree recruitment but by mortality and growth. Overall, our results suggest that moderate disturbances could catalyse rapid forest transitions and accelerate broad-scale biome shifts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marie-Hélène Brice
- Département de Sciences Biologiques, Université de Montréal, Montreal, QC, Canada
- Québec Centre for Biodiversity Sciences, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada
| | - Steve Vissault
- Québec Centre for Biodiversity Sciences, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada
- Département de Biologie, Université de Sherbrooke, Sherbrooke, QC, Canada
| | - Willian Vieira
- Québec Centre for Biodiversity Sciences, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada
- Département de Biologie, Université de Sherbrooke, Sherbrooke, QC, Canada
| | - Dominique Gravel
- Québec Centre for Biodiversity Sciences, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada
- Département de Biologie, Université de Sherbrooke, Sherbrooke, QC, Canada
| | - Pierre Legendre
- Département de Sciences Biologiques, Université de Montréal, Montreal, QC, Canada
- Québec Centre for Biodiversity Sciences, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada
| | - Marie-Josée Fortin
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
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Climate Sentinels Research Program: Developing Indicators of the Effects of Climate Change on Biodiversity in the Region of New Aquitaine (South West, France). ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2018. [DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-98681-4_14] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register]
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Liu HR, Gao QB, Zhang FQ, Khan G, Chen SL. Westwards and northwards dispersal of Triosteum himalayanum (Caprifoliaceae) from the Hengduan Mountains region based on chloroplast DNA phylogeography. PeerJ 2018; 6:e4748. [PMID: 29770273 PMCID: PMC5951126 DOI: 10.7717/peerj.4748] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/15/2018] [Accepted: 04/22/2018] [Indexed: 11/20/2022] Open
Abstract
The varying topography and environment that resulted from paleoorogeny and climate fluctuations of the Himalaya–Hengduan Mountains (HHM) areas had a considerable impact on the evolution of biota during the Quaternary. To understand the phylogeographic pattern and historical dynamics of Triosteum himalayanum (Caprifoliaceae), we sequenced three chloroplast DNA fragments (rbcL-accD, rps15-ycf1, and trnH-psbA) from 238 individuals representing 20 populations. Nineteen haplotypes (H1–H19) were identified based on 23 single-site mutations and eight indels. Most haplotypes were restricted to a single population or neighboring populations. Analysis of molecular variance revealed that variations among populations were much higher than that within populations for the overall gene pool, as well as for the East Himalayan group (EH group) and the North Hengduan group (NHM group), but not for the Hengduan Mountains group (HM group). Ecoregions representing relatively high genetic diversity or high frequencies of private haplotypes were discovered, suggesting that this alpine herbaceous plant underwent enhanced allopatric divergence in isolated and fragmented locations during the Quaternary glaciations. The current phylogeographic structure of T. himalayanum might be due to heterogeneous habitats and Quaternary climatic oscillations. Based on the phylogeographic structure of T. himalayanum populations, the phylogenetic relationship of identified haplotypes and palaeodistributional reconstruction, we postulated both westwards and northwards expansion from the HM group for this species. The westwards dispersal corridor could be long, narrow mountain areas and/or the Yarlung Zangbo Valley, while the northwards movement path could be south–north oriented mountains and low-elevation valleys.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hai-Rui Liu
- Key Laboratory of Adaptation and Evolution of Plateau Biota, Northwest Institute of Plateau Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xining, China.,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Qing-Bo Gao
- Key Laboratory of Adaptation and Evolution of Plateau Biota, Northwest Institute of Plateau Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xining, China.,Qinghai Provincial Key Laboratory of Crop Molecular Breeding, Xining, China
| | - Fa-Qi Zhang
- Key Laboratory of Adaptation and Evolution of Plateau Biota, Northwest Institute of Plateau Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xining, China
| | - Gulzar Khan
- Key Laboratory of Adaptation and Evolution of Plateau Biota, Northwest Institute of Plateau Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xining, China
| | - Shi-Long Chen
- Key Laboratory of Adaptation and Evolution of Plateau Biota, Northwest Institute of Plateau Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xining, China
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Berteaux D, Ricard M, St-Laurent MH, Casajus N, Périé C, Beauregard F, de Blois S. Northern protected areas will become important refuges for biodiversity tracking suitable climates. Sci Rep 2018; 8:4623. [PMID: 29545528 PMCID: PMC5854666 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-018-23050-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/06/2017] [Accepted: 03/06/2018] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
The Northern Biodiversity Paradox predicts that, despite its globally negative effects on biodiversity, climate change will increase biodiversity in northern regions where many species are limited by low temperatures. We assessed the potential impacts of climate change on the biodiversity of a northern network of 1,749 protected areas spread over >600,000 km2 in Quebec, Canada. Using ecological niche modeling, we calculated potential changes in the probability of occurrence of 529 species to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change on (1) species gain, loss, turnover, and richness in protected areas, (2) representativity of protected areas, and (3) extent of species ranges located in protected areas. We predict a major species turnover over time, with 49% of total protected land area potentially experiencing a species turnover >80%. We also predict increases in regional species richness, representativity of protected areas, and species protection provided by protected areas. Although we did not model the likelihood of species colonising habitats that become suitable as a result of climate change, northern protected areas should ultimately become important refuges for species tracking climate northward. This is the first study to examine in such details the potential effects of climate change on a northern protected area network.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dominique Berteaux
- Canada Research Chair on Northern Biodiversity, Centre for Northern Studies and Quebec Centre for Biodiversity Science, Université du Québec à Rimouski, 300 allée des Ursulines, Rimouski, QC, G5L 3A1, Canada.
| | - Marylène Ricard
- Canada Research Chair on Northern Biodiversity, Centre for Northern Studies and Quebec Centre for Biodiversity Science, Université du Québec à Rimouski, 300 allée des Ursulines, Rimouski, QC, G5L 3A1, Canada
| | - Martin-Hugues St-Laurent
- Centre for Northern Studies, Centre for Forest Research, Université du Québec à Rimouski, 300 allée des Ursulines, Rimouski, QC, G5L 3A1, Canada
| | - Nicolas Casajus
- Canada Research Chair on Northern Biodiversity, Centre for Northern Studies and Quebec Centre for Biodiversity Science, Université du Québec à Rimouski, 300 allée des Ursulines, Rimouski, QC, G5L 3A1, Canada
| | - Catherine Périé
- Direction de la recherche forestière, Ministère des Forêts, de la Faune et des Parcs, 2700, rue Einstein, C.1.200, Québec, QC, G1P 3W8, Canada
| | - Frieda Beauregard
- Department of Plant Science, Macdonald Campus, McGill University, 21111 Lakeshore Road, Ste-Anne-de-, Bellevue, QC, H9X 3V9, Canada
| | - Sylvie de Blois
- Department of Plant Science, Macdonald Campus, McGill University, 21111 Lakeshore Road, Ste-Anne-de-, Bellevue, QC, H9X 3V9, Canada.,McGill School of Environment, 3534 University Street, Montreal, QC, H3A 2A7, Canada
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7
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Albert CH, Rayfield B, Dumitru M, Gonzalez A. Applying network theory to prioritize multispecies habitat networks that are robust to climate and land-use change. CONSERVATION BIOLOGY : THE JOURNAL OF THE SOCIETY FOR CONSERVATION BIOLOGY 2017; 31:1383-1396. [PMID: 28383758 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.12943] [Citation(s) in RCA: 57] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/05/2016] [Revised: 02/08/2017] [Accepted: 03/31/2017] [Indexed: 05/24/2023]
Abstract
Designing connected landscapes is among the most widespread strategies for achieving biodiversity conservation targets. The challenge lies in simultaneously satisfying the connectivity needs of multiple species at multiple spatial scales under uncertain climate and land-use change. To evaluate the contribution of remnant habitat fragments to the connectivity of regional habitat networks, we developed a method to integrate uncertainty in climate and land-use change projections with the latest developments in network-connectivity research and spatial, multipurpose conservation prioritization. We used land-use change simulations to explore robustness of species' habitat networks to alternative development scenarios. We applied our method to 14 vertebrate focal species of periurban Montreal, Canada. Accounting for connectivity in spatial prioritization strongly modified conservation priorities and the modified priorities were robust to uncertain climate change. Setting conservation priorities based on habitat quality and connectivity maintained a large proportion of the region's connectivity, despite anticipated habitat loss due to climate and land-use change. The application of connectivity criteria alongside habitat-quality criteria for protected-area design was efficient with respect to the amount of area that needs protection and did not necessarily amplify trade-offs among conservation criteria. Our approach and results are being applied in and around Montreal and are well suited to the design of ecological networks and green infrastructure for the conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem services in other regions, in particular regions around large cities, where connectivity is critically low.
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Affiliation(s)
- Cécile H Albert
- Aix Marseille Univ, Univ Avignon, CNRS, IRD, IMBE, Case 421 Av Escadrille Normandie Niémen 13 397 Marseille cedex 20, France
- Department of Biology, McGill University, Stewart Biology Building 1205 Docteur Penfield, Montreal, QC, H3A 1B1, Canada
| | - Bronwyn Rayfield
- Department of Biology, McGill University, Stewart Biology Building 1205 Docteur Penfield, Montreal, QC, H3A 1B1, Canada
- Département des sciences naturelles, Université du Québec en Outaouais, Institut des sciences de la forêt tempérée, 58 Rue Principale, Ripon, QC, J0V 1V0, Canada
- Apex Resource Management Solutions Ltd., 937 Kingsmere Ave, Ottawa, ON K2A, 3K2, Canada
| | - Maria Dumitru
- Department of Biology, McGill University, Stewart Biology Building 1205 Docteur Penfield, Montreal, QC, H3A 1B1, Canada
| | - Andrew Gonzalez
- Department of Biology, McGill University, Stewart Biology Building 1205 Docteur Penfield, Montreal, QC, H3A 1B1, Canada
- Quebec Centre for Biodiversity Science, Stewart Biology Building 1205 Docteur Penfield, Montreal, QC, H3A 1B1, Canada
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8
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Rempel RS, Hornseth ML. Binational climate change vulnerability assessment of migratory birds in the Great Lakes Basins: Tools and impediments. PLoS One 2017; 12:e0172668. [PMID: 28225817 PMCID: PMC5321439 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0172668] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/05/2016] [Accepted: 02/08/2017] [Indexed: 11/24/2022] Open
Abstract
Climate change is a global concern, requiring international strategies to reduce emissions, however, climate change vulnerability assessments are often local in scope with assessment areas restricted to jurisdictional boundaries. In our study we explored tools and impediments to understanding and responding to the effects of climate change on vulnerability of migratory birds from a binational perspective. We apply and assess the utility of a Climate Change Vulnerability Index on 3 focal species using distribution or niche modeling frameworks. We use the distributional forecasts to explore possible changes to jurisdictional conservation responsibilities resulting from shifting distributions for: eastern meadowlark (Sturnella magna), wood thrush (Hylocichla mustelina), and hooded warbler (Setophaga citrina). We found the Climate Change Vulnerability Index to be a well-organized approach to integrating numerous lines of evidence concerning effects of climate change, and provided transparency to the final assessment of vulnerability. Under this framework, we identified that eastern meadowlark and wood thrush are highly vulnerable to climate change, but hooded warbler is less vulnerable. Our study revealed impediments to assessing and modeling vulnerability to climate change from a binational perspective, including gaps in data or modeling for climate exposure parameters. We recommend increased cross-border collaboration to enhance the availability and resources needed to improve vulnerability assessments and development of conservation strategies. We did not find evidence to suggest major shifts in jurisdictional responsibility for the 3 focal species, but results do indicate increasing responsibility for these birds in the Canadian Provinces. These Provinces should consider conservation planning to help ensure a future supply of necessary habitat for these species.
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Affiliation(s)
- Robert S. Rempel
- Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry, Centre for Northern Forest Ecosystem Research, Thunder Bay, Ontario, Canada
- * E-mail:
| | - Megan L. Hornseth
- Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry, Centre for Northern Forest Ecosystem Research, Thunder Bay, Ontario, Canada
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Gauthier G, Péron G, Lebreton JD, Grenier P, van Oudenhove L. Partitioning prediction uncertainty in climate-dependent population models. Proc Biol Sci 2016; 283:rspb.2016.2353. [PMID: 28003456 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2016.2353] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/27/2016] [Accepted: 11/22/2016] [Indexed: 01/19/2023] Open
Abstract
The science of complex systems is increasingly asked to forecast the consequences of climate change. As a result, scientists are now engaged in making predictions about an uncertain future, which entails the efficient communication of this uncertainty. Here we show the benefits of hierarchically decomposing the uncertainty in predicted changes in animal population size into its components due to structural uncertainty in climate scenarios (greenhouse gas emissions and global circulation models), structural uncertainty in the demographic model, climatic stochasticity, environmental stochasticity unexplained by climate-demographic trait relationships, and sampling variance in demographic parameter estimates. We quantify components of uncertainty surrounding the future abundance of a migratory bird, the greater snow goose (Chen caeruslescens atlantica), using a process-based demographic model covering their full annual cycle. Our model predicts a slow population increase but with a large prediction uncertainty. As expected from theoretical variance decomposition rules, the contribution of sampling variance to prediction uncertainty rapidly overcomes that of process variance and dominates. Among the sources of process variance, uncertainty in the climate scenarios contributed less than 3% of the total prediction variance over a 40-year period, much less than environmental stochasticity. Our study exemplifies opportunities to improve the forecasting of complex systems using long-term studies and the challenges inherent to predicting the future of stochastic systems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gilles Gauthier
- Département de Biologie and Centre d'Études Nordiques, Université Laval, 1045 avenue de la Médecine, Québec, Quebec, Canada G1V 0A6
| | - Guillaume Péron
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, National Zoological Park, Front Royal, VA 22630, USA.,UMR CNRS 5558 - LBBE 'Biométrie et Biologie Évolutive' UCB Lyon 1, Bât. Grégor Mendel, 43 bd du 11 novembre 1918, 69622 Villeurbanne Cedex, France
| | - Jean-Dominique Lebreton
- UMR 5175, Centre d'écologie fonctionnelle et évolutive, CNRS, 1919 Route de Mende, 34293 Montpellier Cedex 5, France
| | - Patrick Grenier
- Groupe Scénarios et services climatiques, Ouranos, 550 rue Sherbrooke Ouest, Montréal, Quebec, Canada H3A 1B9
| | - Louise van Oudenhove
- Département de Biologie and Centre d'Études Nordiques, Université Laval, 1045 avenue de la Médecine, Québec, Quebec, Canada G1V 0A6.,UMR 1355, INRA, Institut Sophia Agrobiotech, 400 Route des Chappes, 06903 Sophia Antipolis, France
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Casajus N, Périé C, Logan T, Lambert MC, de Blois S, Berteaux D. An Objective Approach to Select Climate Scenarios when Projecting Species Distribution under Climate Change. PLoS One 2016; 11:e0152495. [PMID: 27015274 PMCID: PMC4807766 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0152495] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/01/2015] [Accepted: 03/15/2016] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Abstract
An impressive number of new climate change scenarios have recently become available to assess the ecological impacts of climate change. Among these impacts, shifts in species range analyzed with species distribution models are the most widely studied. Whereas it is widely recognized that the uncertainty in future climatic conditions must be taken into account in impact studies, many assessments of species range shifts still rely on just a few climate change scenarios, often selected arbitrarily. We describe a method to select objectively a subset of climate change scenarios among a large ensemble of available ones. Our k-means clustering approach reduces the number of climate change scenarios needed to project species distributions, while retaining the coverage of uncertainty in future climate conditions. We first show, for three biologically-relevant climatic variables, that a reduced number of six climate change scenarios generates average climatic conditions very close to those obtained from a set of 27 scenarios available before reduction. A case study on potential gains and losses of habitat by three northeastern American tree species shows that potential future species distributions projected from the selected six climate change scenarios are very similar to those obtained from the full set of 27, although with some spatial discrepancies at the edges of species distributions. In contrast, projections based on just a few climate models vary strongly according to the initial choice of climate models. We give clear guidance on how to reduce the number of climate change scenarios while retaining the central tendencies and coverage of uncertainty in future climatic conditions. This should be particularly useful during future climate change impact studies as more than twice as many climate models were reported in the fifth assessment report of IPCC compared to the previous one.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nicolas Casajus
- Canada Research Chair on Northern Biodiversity and Centre d’Études Nordiques, Université du Québec à Rimouski, 300 allée des Ursulines, Rimouski, QC, G5L 3A1, Canada
| | - Catherine Périé
- Direction de la recherche forestière, Ministère des Forêts, de la Faune et des Parcs, Québec, QC, G1P 3W8, Canada
| | - Travis Logan
- Ouranos Consortium on Regional Climatology and Adaptation to Climate Change, Montréal, QC, H3A 1B9, Canada
| | - Marie-Claude Lambert
- Direction de la recherche forestière, Ministère des Forêts, de la Faune et des Parcs, Québec, QC, G1P 3W8, Canada
| | - Sylvie de Blois
- Department of Plant Science and McGill School of Environment, Macdonald Campus, McGill University, 21111 Lakeshore Road, Ste-Anne-de-Bellevue, QC, H9X 3V9, Canada
| | - Dominique Berteaux
- Canada Research Chair on Northern Biodiversity and Centre d’Études Nordiques, Université du Québec à Rimouski, 300 allée des Ursulines, Rimouski, QC, G5L 3A1, Canada
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12
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Beauregard F, de Blois S. Beyond a climate-centric view of plant distribution: edaphic variables add value to distribution models. PLoS One 2014; 9:e92642. [PMID: 24658097 PMCID: PMC3962442 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0092642] [Citation(s) in RCA: 38] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/25/2013] [Accepted: 02/25/2014] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Both climatic and edaphic conditions determine plant distribution, however many species distribution models do not include edaphic variables especially over large geographical extent. Using an exceptional database of vegetation plots (n = 4839) covering an extent of ∼55,000 km2, we tested whether the inclusion of fine scale edaphic variables would improve model predictions of plant distribution compared to models using only climate predictors. We also tested how well these edaphic variables could predict distribution on their own, to evaluate the assumption that at large extents, distribution is governed largely by climate. We also hypothesized that the relative contribution of edaphic and climatic data would vary among species depending on their growth forms and biogeographical attributes within the study area. We modelled 128 native plant species from diverse taxa using four statistical model types and three sets of abiotic predictors: climate, edaphic, and edaphic-climate. Model predictive accuracy and variable importance were compared among these models and for species' characteristics describing growth form, range boundaries within the study area, and prevalence. For many species both the climate-only and edaphic-only models performed well, however the edaphic-climate models generally performed best. The three sets of predictors differed in the spatial information provided about habitat suitability, with climate models able to distinguish range edges, but edaphic models able to better distinguish within-range variation. Model predictive accuracy was generally lower for species without a range boundary within the study area and for common species, but these effects were buffered by including both edaphic and climatic predictors. The relative importance of edaphic and climatic variables varied with growth forms, with trees being more related to climate whereas lower growth forms were more related to edaphic conditions. Our study identifies the potential for non-climate aspects of the environment to pose a constraint to range expansion under climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Frieda Beauregard
- Department of Plant Science, McGill University, Sainte Anne-de-Bellevue, Quebec, Canada
| | - Sylvie de Blois
- Department of Plant Science and McGill School of Environment, McGill University, Sainte Anne-de-Bellevue, Quebec, Canada
- * E-mail:
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13
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Ledevin R, Millien V. Congruent morphological and genetic differentiation as a signature of range expansion in a fragmented landscape. Ecol Evol 2013; 3:4172-82. [PMID: 24324868 PMCID: PMC3853562 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.787] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/31/2013] [Accepted: 08/02/2013] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
Phenotypic differentiation is often interpreted as a result of local adaptation of individuals to their environment. Here, we investigated the skull morphological differentiation in 11 populations of the white-footed mouse (Peromyscus leucopus). These populations were sampled in an agricultural landscape in the Montérégie region (Québec, Canada), at the northern edge of the distribution of the white-footed mouse. We found a strong pattern of phenotypic differentiation matching the genetic structure across these populations. Landscape fragmentation and the presence of geographic barriers, in particular north-south oriented rivers, contribute to this differentiation and modulate the pattern of rapid ongoing northward range expansion of the white-footed mouse in response to climate warming. We conclude that while large rivers and postglacial recolonization routes have shaped the current pattern of distribution and differentiation of white-footed mouse populations, further local differentiation is occurring, at the scale of the landscape. We posit that the northern expansion of the white-footed mouse is achieved through successive independent founder events in a fragmented landscape at the northern range edge of the species. The phenotypic differentiation we observe is thus a result of a number of mechanisms operating at different spatial and temporal scales.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ronan Ledevin
- Redpath Museum, McGill University 859 Sherbrooke Street West, Montreal, H3A 0C4, QC, Canada
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Terrier A, Girardin MP, Périé C, Legendre P, Bergeron Y. Potential changes in forest composition could reduce impacts of climate change on boreal wildfires. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2013; 23:21-35. [PMID: 23495633 DOI: 10.1890/12-0425.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 26] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/01/2023]
Abstract
There is general consensus that wildfires in boreal forests will increase throughout this century in response to more severe and frequent drought conditions induced by climate change. However, prediction models generally assume that the vegetation component will remain static over the next few decades. As deciduous species are less flammable than conifer species, it is reasonable to believe that a potential expansion of deciduous species in boreal forests, either occurring naturally or through landscape management, could offset some of the impacts of climate change on the occurrence of boreal wildfires. The objective of this study was to determine the potential of this offsetting effect through a simulation experiment conducted in eastern boreal North America. Predictions of future fire activity were made using multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) with fire behavior indices and ecological niche models as predictor variables so as to take into account the effects of changing climate and tree distribution on fire activity. A regional climate model (RCM) was used for predictions of future fire risk conditions. The experiment was conducted under two tree dispersal scenarios: the status quo scenario, in which the distribution of forest types does not differ from the present one, and the unlimited dispersal scenario, which allows forest types to expand their range to fully occupy their climatic niche. Our results show that future warming will create climate conditions that are more prone to fire occurrence. However, unlimited dispersal of southern restricted deciduous species could reduce the impact of climate change on future fire occurrence. Hence, the use of deciduous species could be a good option for an efficient strategic fire mitigation strategy aimed at reducing fire Propagation in coniferous landscapes and increasing public safety in remote populated areas of eastern boreal Canada under climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Aurélie Terrier
- Centre d'Etude de la Forêt, Université du Québec ai Montréal, C.P. 8888, Montreal, Quebec H3C 3P8, Canada.
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