Water-borne diseases and extreme weather events in Cambodia: review of impacts and implications of climate change

Unraveling urban hydro-environmental response to climate change and MCDA-based area prioritization in a data-scarce developing city

Climate change leads to more frequent and intense heavy rainfall events, posing significant challenges for urban stormwater management, particularly in rapidly urbanizing cities of developing countries with constrained infrastructure. However, the quantitative assessment of urban stormwater, encompassing both its volume and quality, in these regions is impeded due to the scarcity of observational data and resulting limited understanding of drainage system dynamics. This study aims to elucidate the present and projected states of urban flooding, with a specific emphasis on fecal and organic contamination caused by combined sewer overflow (CSO). Leveraging a hydrological model incorporating physical and biochemical processes validated against invaluable observational data, we undertake simulations to estimate discharge, flood volume, and concentrations of suspended solids (SS), Escherichia coli (E. coli), and chemical oxygen demand (COD) within the drainage channel network of Phnom Penh City, Cambodia. Alterations in flood volumes, and pollutant concentrations and loads in overflow under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) for extreme rainfall events are projected. Furthermore, we employ a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework to evaluate flood risk, incorporating diverse indicators encompassing physical, social, and ecological dimensions. Our results demonstrate the exacerbating effects of climate change on flood volumes, expansion of flooded areas, prolonged durations of inundation, elevated vulnerability index, and heightened susceptibility to pollutant contamination under both scenarios, underscoring increased risks of flooding and fecal contamination. Spatial analysis identifies specific zones exhibiting heightened vulnerability to flooding and climate change, suggesting priority zones for investment in flood mitigation measures. These findings provide crucial insights for urban planning and stormwater management in regions with limited drainage infrastructure, offering essential guidance for decision-making in locales facing similar challenges.

Exploring the determinants of under-five mortality and morbidity from infectious diseases in Cambodia-a traditional and machine learning approach

Cambodia has made progress in reducing the under-five mortality rate and burden of infectious diseases among children over the last decades. However the determinants of child mortality and morbidity in Cambodia is not well understood, and no recent analysis has been conducted to investigate possible determinants. We applied a multivariable logistical regression model and a conditional random forest to explore possible determinants of under-five mortality and under-five child morbidity from infectious diseases using the most recent Demographic Health Survey in 2021-2022. Our findings show that the majority (58%) of under-five deaths occurred during the neonatal period. Contraceptive use of the mother led to lower odds of under-five mortality (0.51 [95% CI 0.32-0.80], p-value 0.003), while being born fourth or later was associated with increased odds (3.25 [95% CI 1.09-9.66], p-value 0.034). Improved household water source and higher household wealth quintile was associated with lower odds of infectious disease while living in the Great Lake or Coastal region led to increased odds respectively. The odds ratios were consistent with the results from the conditional random forest. The study showcases how closely related child mortality and morbidity due to infectious disease are to broader social development in Cambodia and the importance of accelerating progress in many sectors to end preventable child mortality and morbidity.

Reduction of Malnutrition Related to Unsafe Water Consumption in Developing Countries: Potabilization of Surface Water and Traditional Well Water, with Plant Extracts

The consumption of unsafe water in rural areas is a real public health problem in developing countries. This situation mainly affects children under five years of age and causes several deaths and many cases of malnutrition every year. The objective of this study was to evaluate and optimize the capacity of four local plant extracts in the potabilization of unsafe water. Thus, Moringa oleifera and Boscia senegalensis seeds, or Aloe vera and Opuntia ficus-indica mucilages were prepared in a solution and applied during a jar test as biocoagulants and bioflocculants on three raw water samples of 82.3 NTU, 549.8 NTU and 796.9 NTU. After treatment results showed that 0.9 g/L of Moringa biocoagulant or 1 g/L of Boscia biocoagulant applied with 0.4 mL of Aloe vera bioflocculant or 0.6 mL of Opuntia ficus-indica bioflocculant reduced the turbidity of each water sample to values less than 5 NTU after only 15 min of decanting. Moreover, the sanitary quality of the water treated by these different extracts showed a perfect conformity of the physicochemical and microbiological parameters with the standards of acceptability in drinking water decreed by the World Health Organization. Thus, the application of these local plant extracts has made it possible to considerably improve the quality of unsafe water in record time. Their popularization could be an alternative in the fight against malnutrition related to the consumption of unsafe water, especially in rural areas.

Climate change and its impact on infectious diseases in Asia

ABSTRACT

Climate change, particularly increasing temperature, changes in rainfall, extreme weather events and changes in vector ecology, impacts the transmission of many climate-sensitive infectious diseases. Asia is the world's most populous, rapidly evolving and diverse continent, and it is already experiencing the effects of climate change. Climate change intersects with population, sociodemographic and geographical factors, amplifying the public health impact of infectious diseases and potentially widening existing disparities. In this narrative review, we outline the evidence of the impact of climate change on infectious diseases of importance in Asia, including vector-borne diseases, food- and water-borne diseases, antimicrobial resistance and other infectious diseases. We also highlight the imperative need for strategic intersectoral collaboration at the national and global levels and for the health sector to implement adaptation and mitigation measures, including responsibility for its own greenhouse gas emissions.

Modeling flood susceptibility zones using hybrid machine learning models of an agricultural dominant landscape of India

Flooding events are determining a significant amount of damages, in terms of economic loss and also casualties in Asia and Pacific areas. Due to complexity and ferocity of severe flooding, predicting flood-prone areas is a difficult task. Thus, creating flood susceptibility maps at local level is though challenging but an inevitable task. In order to implement a flood management plan for the Balrampur district, an agricultural dominant landscape of India, and strengthen its resilience, flood susceptibility modeling and mapping are carried out. In the present study, three hybrid machine learning (ML) models, namely, fuzzy-ANN (artificial neural network), fuzzy-RBF (radial basis function), and fuzzy-SVM (support vector machine) with 12 topographic, hydrological, and other flood influencing factors were used to determine flood-susceptible zones. To ascertain the relationship between the occurrences and flood influencing factors, correlation attribute evaluation (CAE) and multicollinearity diagnostic tests were used. The predictive power of these models was validated and compared using a variety of statistical techniques, including Wilcoxon signed-rank, t-paired tests and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Results show that fuzzy-RBF model outperformed other hybrid ML models for modeling flood susceptibility, followed by fuzzy-ANN and fuzzy-SVM. Overall, these models have shown promise in identifying flood-prone areas in the basin and other basins around the world. The outcomes of the work would benefit policymakers and government bodies to capture the flood-affected areas for necessary planning, action, and implementation.

The Effect of Oral Iron Supplementation on Gut Microbial Composition: a Secondary Analysis of a Double-Blind, Randomized Controlled Trial among Cambodian Women of Reproductive Age

The World Health Organization recommends untargeted iron supplementation for women of reproductive age (WRA) in countries where anemia prevalence is greater than 40%, such as Cambodia. Iron supplements, however, often have poor bioavailability, so the majority remains unabsorbed in the colon. The gut houses many iron-dependent bacterial enteropathogens; thus, providing iron to individuals may be more harmful than helpful. We examined the effects of two oral iron supplements with differing bioavailability on the gut microbiomes in Cambodian WRA. This study is a secondary analysis of a double-blind, randomized controlled trial of oral iron supplementation in Cambodian WRA. For 12 weeks, participants received ferrous sulfate, ferrous bisglycinate, or placebo. Participants provided stool samples at baseline and 12 weeks. A subset of stool samples (n = 172), representing the three groups, were randomly selected for gut microbial analysis by 16S rRNA gene sequencing and targeted real-time PCR (qPCR). At baseline, 1% of women had iron-deficiency anemia. The most abundant gut phyla were Bacteroidota (45.7%) and Firmicutes (42.1%). Iron supplementation did not alter gut microbial diversity. Ferrous bisglycinate increased the relative abundance of Enterobacteriaceae, and there was a trend towards an increase in the relative abundance of Escherichia-Shigella. qPCR detected an increase in the enteropathogenic Escherichia coli (EPEC) virulence gene, bfpA, in the group that received ferrous sulfate. Thus, iron supplementation did not affect overall gut bacterial diversity in predominantly iron-replete Cambodian WRA, however, evidence does suggest an increase in relative abundance within the broad family Enterobacteriaceae associated with ferrous bisglycinate use. IMPORTANCE To the best of our knowledge, this is the first published study to characterize the effects of oral iron supplementation on the gut microbiomes of Cambodian WRA. Our study found that iron supplementation with ferrous bisglycinate increases the relative abundance of Enterobacteriaceae, which is a family of bacteria that includes many Gram-negative enteric pathogens like Salmonella, Shigella, and Escherichia coli. Using qPCR for additional analysis, we were able to detect genes associated with enteropathogenic E. coli, a type of diarrheagenic E. coli known to be present around the world, including water systems in Cambodia. The current WHO guidelines recommend blanket (untargeted) iron supplementation for Cambodian WRA despite a lack of studies in this population examining iron's effect on the gut microbiome. This study can facilitate future research that may inform evidence-based global practice and policy.

When the flood passes, does health return? A short panel examining water and food insecurity, nutrition, and disease after an extreme flood in lowland Bolivia

OBJECTIVES

Flooding is the most frequent extreme-weather disaster and disproportionately burdens marginalized populations. This article examines how food and water insecurity, blood pressure (BP), nutritional status, and diarrheal and respiratory illnesses changed during the 2 months following a historic flood in lowland Bolivia.

METHODS

Drawing on longitudinal data from Tsimane' forager-horticulturalist (n = 118 household heads; n = 129 children) directly after a historic 2014 flood and ~2 months later, we use fixed effects linear regression and random effects logistic regression models to test changes in the markers of well-being and health over the recovery process.

RESULTS

Results demonstrated that water insecurity scores decreased significantly 2 month's postflood, while food insecurity scores remained high. Adults' systolic and diastolic BP significantly declined 2 months after the flood's conclusion. Adults experienced losses in measures of adiposity (BMI, sum of four skinfolds, waist circumference). Children gained weight and BMI-for-age Z-scores indicating buffering of children by adults from food stress that mainly occurred in the community closer to the main market town with greater access to food aid. Odds of diarrhea showed a nonsignificant decline, while cough increased significantly for both children and adults 2 months postflood.

CONCLUSIONS

Water insecurity and BP improved during the recovery process, while high levels of food insecurity persisted, and nutritional stress and respiratory illness worsened. Not all indicators of well-being and health recover at the same rate after historic flooding events. Planning for multiphase recovery is critical to improve health of marginalized populations after flooding.

Dam-mediated flooding impact on outpatient attendance and diarrhoea cases in northern Ghana: a mixed methods study

Background

Floods are the most frequently occurring natural disaster and constitute a significant public health risk. Several operational satellite-based flood detection systems quantify flooding extent, but it is unclear how far the choice of satellite-based flood product affects the findings of epidemiological studies of associated public health risks. Few studies of flooding’s health impacts have used mixed methods to enrich understanding of these impacts. This study therefore aims to evaluate the relationship between two satellite-derived flood products with outpatient attendance and diarrhoeal disease in northern Ghana, identifying plausible reasons for observed relationships via qualitative interviews.

Methods

A convergent parallel mixed methods design combined an ecological time series with focus group discussions and key informant interviews. Through an ecological time series component, monthly outpatient attendance and diarrhoea case counts from health facilities in two flood-prone districts for 2016–2020 were integrated with monthly flooding map layers classified via the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Landsat satellite sensors. The relationship between reported diarrhoea and outpatient attendance with flooding was examined using Poisson regression, controlling for seasonality and facility catchment population. Four focus group discussions with affected community members and four key informant interviews with health professionals explored flooding’s impact on healthcare delivery and access.

Results

Flooding detected via Landsat better predicted outpatient attendance and diarrhoea than flooding via MODIS. Outpatient attendance significantly reduced as LandSat-derived flood area per facility catchment increased (adjusted Incidence Rate Ratio = 0.78, 95% CI: 0.61–0.99, p < 0.05), whilst reported diarrhoea significantly increased with flood area per facility catchment (adjusted Incidence Rate Ratio = 4.27, 95% CI: 2.74—6.63, p < 0.001). Key informants noted how flooding affected access to health services as patients and health professionals could not reach the health facility and emergency referrals were unable to travel.

Conclusions

The significant reduction in outpatient attendance during flooding suggests that flooding impairs healthcare delivery. The relationship is sensitive to the choice of satellite-derived flood product, so future studies should consider integrating multiple sources of satellite imagery for more robust exposure assessment. Health teams and communities should plan spatially targeted flood mitigation and health system adaptation strategies that explicitly address population and workforce mobility issues.

Flood disasters and health among the urban poor

Billions of people live in urban poverty, with many forced to reside in disaster-prone areas. Research suggests that such disasters harm child nutrition and increase adult morbidity. However, little is known about impacts on mental health, particularly of people living in slums. In this paper we estimate the effects of flood disasters on the mental and physical health of poor adults and children in urban Indonesia. Our data come from the Indonesia Family Life Survey and new surveys of informal settlement residents. We find that urban poor populations experience increases in acute morbidities and depressive symptoms following floods, that the negative mental health effects last longer, and that the urban wealthy show no health effects from flood exposure. Further analysis suggests that worse economic outcomes may be partly responsible. Overall, the results provide a more nuanced understanding of the morbidities experienced by populations most vulnerable to increased disaster occurrence.

Climate Change and Child Health Inequality: A Review of Reviews

There is growing evidence on the observed and expected consequences of climate change on population health worldwide. There is limited understanding of its consequences for child health inequalities, between and within countries. To examine these consequences and categorize the state of knowledge in this area, we conducted a review of reviews indexed in five databases (Medline, Embase, Web of Science, PsycInfo, Sociological Abstracts). Reviews that reported the effect of climate change on child health inequalities between low- and high-income children, within or between countries (high- vs low-middle-income countries; HICs and LMICs), were included. Twenty-three reviews, published between 2007 and January 2021, were included for full-text analyses. Using thematic synthesis, we identified strong descriptive, but limited quantitative, evidence that climate change exacerbates child health inequalities. Explanatory mechanisms relating climate change to child health inequalities were proposed in some reviews; for example, children in LMICs are more susceptible to the consequences of climate change than children in HICs due to limited structural and economic resources. Geographic and intergenerational inequalities emerged as additional themes from the review. Further research with an equity focus should address the effects of climate change on adolescents/youth, mental health and inequalities within countries.

Clinical Ecopsychology: The Mental Health Impacts and Underlying Pathways of the Climate and Environmental Crisis

Humankind is confronted with progressing climate change, pollution, environmental degradation, and/or destruction of the air, soil, water, and ecosystems. The climate and environmental crisis is probably one of the greatest challenges in the history of humankind. It not only poses a serious current and continuing threat to physical health, but is also an existing and growing hazard to the mental health of millions of people worldwide. This synergy of literature provides a current summary of the adverse mental health impacts of the climate and environmental crisis from the perspective of Clinical Psychology. Furthermore, it presents potential underlying processes, including biological, emotional, cognitive, behavioral, and social pathways. The existing data suggest that the climate and environmental crisis not only acts as a direct stressor, but can also exert a detrimental impact on the various pathways, with the potential to amplify an individual's biopsychosocial vulnerability to develop mental ill-health. This is a call for an increased investigation into this emerging research field of Clinical Ecopsychology by clinical psychologists and other researchers.

Associations Between Environmental and Sociodemographic Data and Hepatitis-A Transmission in Pará State (Brazil)

Hepatitis-A is a waterborne infectious disease transmitted by the eponymous hepatitis-A virus (HAV). Due to the disease's sociodemographic and environmental characteristics, this study applied public census and remote sensing data to assess risk factors for hepatitis-A transmission. Municipality-level data were obtained for the state of Pará, Brazil. Generalized linear and nonlinear models were evaluated as alternative predictors for hepatitis-A transmission in Pará. The Histogram Gradient Boost (HGB) regression model was deemed the best choice ( R M S E = 2.36, and higherR 2  = 0.95) among the tested models. Partial dependence analysis and permutation feature importance analysis were used to investigate the partial dependence and the relative importance values of the independent variables in the disease transmission prediction model. Results indicated a complex relationship between the disease transmission and the sociodemographic and environmental characteristics of the study area. Population size, lack of sanitation, urban clustering, year of notification, insufficient public vaccination programs, household proximity to open-air dumpsites and storm-drains, and lack of access to healthcare facilities and hospitals were sociodemographic parameters related to HAV transmission. Turbidity and precipitation were the environmental parameters closest related to disease transmission. Based on HGB model, a hepatitis-A risk map was built for Pará state. The obtained risk map can be thought of as an auxiliary tool for public health strategies. This study reinforces the need to incorporate remote sensing data in epidemiological modelling and surveillance plans for the development of early prevention strategies for hepatitis-A.

Epidemiologic Impacts in Acute Infectious Disease Associated with Catastrophic Climate Events Related to Global Warming in the Northeast of Mexico

Rising global temperatures and seawater temperatures have led to an increase in extreme weather patterns leading to droughts and floods. These natural phenomena, in turn, affect the supply of drinking water in some communities, which causes an increase in the prevalence of diseases related to the supply of drinking water. The objective of this work is to demonstrate the effects of global warming on human health in the population of Monterrey, Mexico after Hurricane Alex. We interpolated data using statistical downscaling of climate projection data for 2050 and 2080 and correlated it with disease occurrence. We found a remarkable rise in the incidence of transmissible infectious disease symptoms. Gastrointestinal symptoms predominated and were associated with drinking of contaminated water like tap water or water from communal mobile water tanks, probably because of the contamination of clean water, the disruption of water sanitation, and the inability to maintain home hygiene practices.

Implementation of a Surface Water Extent Model in Cambodia using Cloud-Based Remote Sensing

Mapping surface water over time provides the spatially explicit information essential for hydroclimatic research focused on droughts and flooding. Hazard risk assessments and water management planning also rely on accurate, long-term measurements describing hydrologic fluctuations. Stream gages are a common measurement tool used to better understand flow and inundation dynamics, but gage networks are incomplete or non-existent in many parts of the world. In such instances, satellite imagery may provide the only data available to monitor surface water changes over time. Here, we describe an effort to extend the applicability of the USGS Dynamic Surface Water Extent (DSWE) model to non-US regions. We leverage the multi-decadal archive of the Landsat satellite in the Google Earth Engine (GEE) cloud-based computing platform to produce and analyze 372 monthly composite maps and 31 annual maps (January 1988–December 2018) in Cambodia, a flood-prone country in Southeast Asia that lacks a comprehensive stream gage network. DSWE relies on a series of spectral water indices and elevation data to classify water into four categories of water inundation. We compared model outputs to existing surface water maps and independently assessed DSWE accuracy at discrete dates across the time series. Despite considerable cloud obstruction and missing imagery across the monthly time series, the overall accuracy exceeded 85% for all annual tests. The DSWE model consistently mapped open water with high accuracy, and areas classified as “high confidence” water correlate well to other available maps at the country scale. Results in Cambodia suggest that extending DSWE globally using a cloud computing framework may benefit scientists, managers, and planners in a wide array of applications across the globe.

Enteric Fever in Cambodia: Community Perceptions and Practices Concerning Disease Transmission and Treatment

Enteric fever is a systemic bacterial infection in humans that is endemic in Cambodia and for which antibiotic resistance is increasingly reported. To guide public health programs, this qualitative study sought to explore community perceptions on transmission and treatment. Participant observation was carried out in hospital settings, pharmacies, and at a community level in Phnom Penh. In-depth interviews 39 and one focus group discussion were carried out with blood culture–confirmed enteric fever patients and purposively selected key informants. Informants were theoretically sampled based on initial themes identified using abductive analysis. Nvivo 11 was used for thematic coding. An urgent need to address health literacy concerning the transmission of enteric fever was identified, as lay informants did not link the disease and its symptoms to bacterial contamination of foods and drinks but rather to foods considered “bad” following humoral illness interpretations. As a result, lay informants considered recurrence of enteric fever preventable with appropriate dietary restrictions and Khmer traditional medicines. This study also reveals pluralistic health-care–seeking behavior. For initial and mild symptoms, patients preferred home treatment or traditional healing practices; limited household finances delayed treatment seeking. When symptoms persisted, patients first visited drug outlets or private practitioners, where they received a mix of nonessential medicines and one or more antibiotics often without prescription or confirmation of diagnosis. Inappropriate use of antibiotics was common and was related to diagnostic uncertainty and limited finances, factors which should be addressed during future efforts to improve the uptake of appropriate diagnostics and treatment of enteric fever.

Urban Stream and Wetland Restoration in the Global South—A DPSIR Analysis

In many countries of the Global South, aquatic ecosystems such as streams, rivers, lakes, and wetlands are severely impacted by several simultaneous environmental stressors, associated with accelerated urban development, and extreme climate. However, this problem receives little attention. Applying a DPSIR approach (Drivers, Pressures, State, Impacts, Responses), we analyzed the environmental impacts and their effects on urban hydrosystems (including stagnant waters), and suggest possible solutions from a series of case studies worldwide. We find that rivers in the Global South, with their distinctive geographical and socio-political setting, display significant differences from the Urban Stream Syndrome described so far in temperate zones. We introduce the term of ‘Southern Urban Hydrosystem Syndrome’ for the biophysical problems as well as the social interactions, including the perception of water bodies by the urbanites, the interactions of actors (e.g., top-down, bottom-up), and the motivations that drive urban hydrosystem restoration projects of the Global South. Supported by a synthesis of case studies (with a focus on Brazilian restoration projects), this paper summarizes the state of the art, highlights the currently existing lacunae for research, and delivers examples of practical solutions that may inform UNESCO’s North–South–South dialogue to solve these urgent problems. Two elements appear to be specifically important for the success of restoration projects in the Global South, namely the broad acceptance and commitment of local populations beyond merely ‘ecological’ justifications, e.g., healthy living environments and ecosystems with cultural linkages (‘River Culture’). To make it possible implementable/practical solutions must be extended to (often poor) people having settled along river banks and wetlands.

Environmental health effects attributed to toxic and infectious agents following hurricanes, cyclones, flash floods and major hydrometeorological events

Extreme hydrometeorological events such as hurricanes and cyclones are increasing in frequency and intensity due to climate change and often associated with flash floods in coastal, urbanized and industrial areas. Preparedness and response measures need to concentrate on toxicological and infectious hazards, the potential impact on environmental health, and threat to human lives. The recognition of the danger of flood water after hurricanes is critical. Effective health management needs to consider the likelihood and specific risks of toxic agents present in waters contaminated by chemical spills, bio-toxins, waste, sewage, and water-borne pathogens. Despite significant progress in the ability to rapidly detect and test water for a wide range of chemicals and pathogens, there has been a lack of implementation to adapt toxicity measurements in the context of flash and hurricane-induced flooding. The aim of this review was to highlight the need to collect and analyze data on toxicity of flood waters to understand the risks and prepare vulnerable communities and first responders. It is proposed that new and routinely used technologies be employed during disaster response to rapidly assess toxicity and infectious disease threats, and subsequently take necessary remedial actions.

Climate variability and hospitalizations due to infectious diarrheal diseases in a municipality of the Western Brazilian Amazon Region

Morbimortality due to infectious diarrheal diseases still is a serious health issue in Brazil and is highly related to factors such as weather, environment, and people's life conditions. This study aimed to analyze the relationship between hospitalization rates due to infectious diarrheal diseases among the population of the municipality of Rio Branco (AC), Brazil and precipitation, river level, humidity and temperature between 2000 and 2013. Data were retrieved from the Hospital Information System of the SUS (Unified Health System), the National Institute of Meteorology and the National Water Agency. Multiple Poisson and negative binomial regression models were adjusted. Results showed that there is a positive association between hospitalization due to infectious diarrheal diseases and the level of the Acre river (RR: 1.07; CI 95%: 1.04 to 1.1); these hospitalization rates fell 14% between 2000 and 2013 (RR: 0.86; CI 95%: 0.85 to 0.87). The most vulnerable group was the age group of less than 1 year of age. This study showed the vulnerability of an Amazonian city to climate variability and its respective epidemiological influence on the incidence of hospitalizations due to infectious diarrheal diseases.

Modelling the cost-effectiveness of a rapid diagnostic test (IgMFA) for uncomplicated typhoid fever in Cambodia

Typhoid fever is a common cause of fever in Cambodian children but diagnosis and treatment are usually presumptive owing to the lack of quick and accurate tests at an initial consultation. This study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of using a rapid diagnostic test (RDT) for typhoid fever diagnosis, an immunoglobulin M lateral flow assay (IgMFA), in a remote health centre setting in Cambodia from a healthcare provider perspective. A cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) with decision analytic modelling was conducted. We constructed a decision tree model comparing the IgMFA versus clinical diagnosis in a hypothetical cohort with 1000 children in each arm. The costs included direct medical costs only. The eligibility was children (≤14 years old) with fever. Time horizon was day seven from the initial consultation. The number of treatment success in typhoid fever cases was the primary health outcome. The number of correctly diagnosed typhoid fever cases (true-positives) was the intermediate health outcome. We obtained the incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER), expressed as the difference in costs divided by the difference in the number of treatment success between the two arms. Sensitivity analyses were conducted. The IgMFA detected 5.87 more true-positives than the clinical diagnosis (38.45 versus 32.59) per 1000 children and there were 3.61 more treatment successes (46.78 versus 43.17). The incremental cost of the IgMFA was estimated at $5700; therefore, the ICER to have one additional treatment success was estimated to be $1579. The key drivers for the ICER were the relative sensitivity of IgMFA versus clinical diagnosis, the cost of IgMFA, and the prevalence of typhoid fever or multi-drug resistant strains. The IgMFA was more costly but more effective than the clinical diagnosis in the base-case analysis. An IgMFA could be more cost-effective than the base-case if the sensitivity of IgMFA was higher or cost lower. Decision makers may use a willingness-to-pay threshold that considers the additional cost of hospitalisation for treatment failures.

Hydrometeorology and flood pulse dynamics drive diarrheal disease outbreaks and increase vulnerability to climate change in surface-water-dependent populations: A retrospective analysis

BACKGROUND

The impacts of climate change on surface water, waterborne disease, and human health remain a growing area of concern, particularly in Africa, where diarrheal disease is one of the most important health threats to children under 5 years of age. Little is known about the role of surface water and annual flood dynamics (flood pulse) on waterborne disease and human health nor about the expected impact of climate change on surface-water-dependent populations.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Using the Chobe River in northern Botswana, a flood pulse river-floodplain system, we applied multimodel inference approaches assessing the influence of river height, water quality (bimonthly counts of Escherichia coli and total suspended solids [TSS], 2011-2017), and meteorological variability on weekly diarrheal case reports among children under 5 presenting to health facilities (n = 10 health facilities, January 2007-June 2017). We assessed diarrheal cases by clinical characteristics and season across age groups using monthly outpatient data (January 1998-June 2017). A strong seasonal pattern was identified, with 2 outbreaks occurring regularly in the wet and dry seasons. The timing of outbreaks diverged from that at the level of the country, where surface water is largely absent. Across age groups, the number of diarrheal cases was greater, on average, during the dry season. Demographic and clinical characteristics varied by season, underscoring the importance of environmental drivers. In the wet season, rainfall (8-week lag) had a significant influence on under-5 diarrhea, with a 10-mm increase in rainfall associated with an estimated 6.5% rise in the number of cases. Rainfall, minimum temperature, and river height were predictive of E. coli concentration, and increases in E. coli in the river were positively associated with diarrheal cases. In the dry season, river height (1-week lag) and maximum temperature (1- and 4-week lag) were significantly associated with diarrheal cases. During this period, a 1-meter drop in river height corresponded to an estimated 16.7% and 16.1% increase in reported diarrhea with a 1- and 4-week lag, respectively. In this region, as floodwaters receded from the surrounding floodplains, TSS levels increased and were positively associated with diarrheal cases (0- and 3-week lag). Populations living in this region utilized improved water sources, suggesting that hydrological variability and rapid water quality shifts in surface waters may compromise water treatment processes. Limitations include the potential influence of health beliefs and health seeking behaviors on data obtained through passive surveillance.

CONCLUSIONS

In flood pulse river-floodplain systems, hydrology and water quality dynamics can be highly variable, potentially impacting conventional water treatment facilities and the production of safe drinking water. In Southern Africa, climate change is predicted to intensify hydrological variability and the frequency of extreme weather events, amplifying the public health threat of waterborne disease in surface-water-dependent populations. Water sector development should be prioritized with urgency, incorporating technologies that are robust to local environmental conditions and expected climate-driven impacts. In populations with high HIV burdens, expansion of diarrheal disease surveillance and intervention strategies may also be needed. As annual flood pulse processes are predominantly influenced by climate controls in distant regions, country-level data may be inadequate to refine predictions of climate-health interactions in these systems.

Flooding: what is the impact on pregnancy and child health?

Floods are the most common type of natural disaster in both developed and developing countries and have led to extensive morbidity and mortality throughout the world. Worldwide, over the past 30 years, flooding has claimed the lives of more than 200,000 people and affected more than 2.8 billion others. The impact of flooding on health varies among populations and depends primarily on vulnerability and the kind of event experienced. It severely disrupts livelihoods and has a significant impact on the health of pregnant women and children. In addition, it may exacerbate a range of negative psychological and physiological child and reproductive health outcomes. Awareness-raising, education, and the issuing of warnings appear to be key initiatives to mitigate or prevent flood morbidity and mortality, especially among people living in low- and middle-income countries. Agencies responding to emergencies also need to be more cognisant of the dangers, specifically those engaged in healthcare, nutrition, and water safety programmes.

The Effect of Seasonal Floods on Health: Analysis of Six Years of National Health Data and Flood Maps

There is limited knowledge on the effect of seasonal flooding on health over time. We quantified the short- and long-term effects of floods on selected health indicators at public healthcare facilities in 11 districts in Cambodia, a flood-prone setting. Counts of inpatient discharge diagnoses and outpatient consultations for diarrhea, acute respiratory infections, skin infections, injuries, noncommunicable diseases and vector-borne diseases were retrieved from public healthcare facilities for each month between January 2008 and December 2013. Flood water was mapped by month, in square kilometers, from satellite data. Poisson regression models with three lag months were constructed for the health problems in each district, controlled for seasonality and long-term trends. During times of flooding and three months after, there were small to moderate increases in visits to healthcare facilities for skin infections, acute respiratory infections, and diarrhea, while no association was seen at one to two months. The associations were small to moderate, and a few of our results were significant. We observed increases in care seeking for diarrhea, skin infections, and acute respiratory infections following floods, but the associations are uncertain. Additional research on previous exposure to flooding, using community- and facility-based data, would help identify expected health risks after floods in flood-prone settings.

Climate Change-Related Water Disasters' Impact on Population Health

PURPOSE

Rising global temperatures have resulted in an increased frequency and severity of cyclones, hurricanes, and flooding in many parts of the world. These climate change-related water disasters (CCRWDs) have a devastating impact on communities and the health of residents. Clinicians and policymakers require a substantive body of evidence on which to base planning, prevention, and disaster response to these events. The purpose of this study was to conduct a systematic review of the literature concerning the impact of CCRWDs on public health in order to identify factors in these events that are amenable to preparedness and mitigation. Ultimately, this evidence could be used by nurses to advocate for greater preparedness initiatives and inform national and international disaster policy.

DESIGN AND METHODS

A systematic literature review of publications identified through a comprehensive search of five relevant databases (PubMed, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature [CINAHL], Embase, Scopus, and Web of Science) was conducted using a modified Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) approach in January 2017 to describe major themes and associated factors of the impact of CCRWDs on population health.

FINDINGS

Three major themes emerged: environmental disruption resulting in exposure to toxins, population susceptibility, and health systems infrastructure (failure to plan-prepare-mitigate, inadequate response, and lack of infrastructure). Direct health impact was characterized by four major categories: weather-related morbidity and mortality, waterborne diseases/water-related illness, vector-borne and zoonotic diseases, and psychiatric/mental health effects. Scope and duration of the event are factors that exacerbate the impact of CCRWDs. Discussion of specific factors amenable to mitigation was limited. Flooding as an event was overrepresented in this analysis (60%), and the majority of the research reviewed was conducted in high-income or upper middle-/high-income countries (62%), despite the fact that low-income countries bear a disproportionate share of the burden on morbidity and mortality from CCRWDs.

CONCLUSIONS

Empirical evidence related to CCRWDs is predominately descriptive in nature, characterizing the cascade of climatic shifts leading to major environmental disruption and exposure to toxins, and their resultant morbidity and mortality. There is inadequate representation of research exploring potentially modifiable factors associated with CCRWDs and their impact on population health. This review lays the foundation for a wide array of further areas of analysis to explore the negative health impacts of CCRWDs and for nurses to take a leadership role in identifying and advocating for evidence-based policies to plan, prevent, or mitigate these effects.

CLINICAL RELEVANCE

Nurses comprise the largest global healthcare workforce and are in a position to advocate for disaster preparedness for CCRWDs, develop more robust environmental health policies, and work towards mitigating exposure to environmental toxins that may threaten human health.

Association between flood and the morbidity of bacillary dysentery in Zibo City, China: a symmetric bidirectional case-crossover study

This study examined the relationship between daily morbidity of bacillary dysentery and flood in 2007 in Zibo City, China, using a symmetric bidirectional case-crossover study. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) on the basis of multivariate model and stratified analysis at different lagged days were calculated to estimate the risk of flood on bacillary dysentery. A total of 902 notified bacillary dysentery cases were identified during the study period. The median of case distribution was 7-year-old and biased to children. Multivariable analysis showed that flood was associated with an increased risk of bacillary dysentery, with the largest OR of 1.849 (95 % CI 1.229-2.780) at 2-day lag. Gender-specific analysis showed that there was a significant association between flood and bacillary dysentery among males only (ORs >1 from lag 1 to lag 5), with the strongest lagged effect at 2-day lag (OR = 2.820, 95 % CI 1.629-4.881), and the result of age-specific indicated that youngsters had a slightly larger risk to develop flood-related bacillary dysentery than older people at one shorter lagged day (OR = 2.000, 95 % CI 1.128-3.546 in youngsters at lag 2; OR = 1.879, 95 % CI 1.069-3.305 in older people at lag 3). Our study has confirmed that there is a positive association between flood and the risk of bacillary dysentery in selected study area. Males and youngsters may be the vulnerable and high-risk populations to develop the flood-related bacillary dysentery. Results from this study will provide recommendations to make available strategies for government to deal with negative health outcomes due to floods.

Which Environmental Factors Have the Highest Impact on the Performance of People Experiencing Difficulties in Capacity?

Disability is understood by the World Health Organization (WHO) as the outcome of the interaction between a health condition and personal and environmental factors. Comprehensive data about environmental factors is therefore essential to understand and influence disability. We aimed to identify which environmental factors have the highest impact on the performance of people with mild, moderate and severe difficulties in capacity, who are at risk of experiencing disability to different extents, using data from a pilot study of the WHO Model Disability Survey in Cambodia and random forest regression. Hindering or facilitating aspects of places to socialize in community activities, transportation and natural environment as well as use and need of personal assistance and use of medication on a regular basis were the most important environmental factors across groups. Hindering or facilitating aspects of the general environment were the most relevant in persons experiencing mild levels of difficulties in capacity, while social support, attitudes of others and use of medication on a regular basis were highly relevant for the performance of persons experiencing moderate to higher levels of difficulties in capacity. Additionally, we corroborate the high importance of the use and need of assistive devices for people with severe difficulties in capacity.

Impacts of Climatic Variability on Vibrio parahaemolyticus Outbreaks in Taiwan

This study aimed to investigate and quantify the relationship between climate variation and incidence of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Taiwan. Specifically, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models (including autoregression, seasonality, and a lag-time effect) were employed to predict the role of climatic factors (including temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, ocean temperature and ocean salinity) on the incidence of V. parahaemolyticus in Taiwan between 2000 and 2011. The results indicated that average temperature (+), ocean temperature (+), ocean salinity of 6 months ago (+), maximum daily rainfall (current (-) and one month ago (-)), and average relative humidity (current and 9 months ago (-)) had significant impacts on the incidence of V. parahaemolyticus. Our findings offer a novel view of the quantitative relationship between climate change and food poisoning by V. parahaemolyticus in Taiwan. An early warning system based on climate change information for the disease control management is required in future.

Detection of emerging and re-emerging pathogens in surface waters close to an urban area

Current knowledge about the spread of pathogens in aquatic environments is scarce probably because bacteria, viruses, algae and their toxins tend to occur at low concentrations in water, making them very difficult to measure directly. The purpose of this study was the development and validation of tools to detect pathogens in freshwater systems close to an urban area. In order to evaluate anthropogenic impacts on water microbiological quality, a phylogenetic microarray was developed in the context of the EU project µAQUA to detect simultaneously numerous pathogens and applied to samples from two different locations close to an urban area located upstream and downstream of Rome in the Tiber River. Furthermore, human enteric viruses were also detected. Fifty liters of water were collected and concentrated using a hollow-fiber ultrafiltration approach. The resultant concentrate was further size-fractionated through a series of decreasing pore size filters. RNA was extracted from pooled filters and hybridized to the newly designed microarray to detect pathogenic bacteria, protozoa and toxic cyanobacteria. Diatoms as indicators of the water quality status, were also included in the microarray to evaluate water quality. The microarray results gave positive signals for bacteria, diatoms, cyanobacteria and protozoa. Cross validation of the microarray was performed using standard microbiological methods for the bacteria. The presence of oral-fecal transmitted human enteric-viruses were detected using q-PCR. Significant concentrations of Salmonella, Clostridium, Campylobacter and Staphylococcus as well as Hepatitis E Virus (HEV), noroviruses GI (NoGGI) and GII (NoGII) and human adenovirus 41 (ADV 41) were found in the Mezzocammino site, whereas lower concentrations of other bacteria and only the ADV41 virus was recovered at the Castel Giubileo site. This study revealed that the pollution level in the Tiber River was considerably higher downstream rather than upstream of Rome and the downstream location was contaminated by emerging and re-emerging pathogens.