Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease and Cancer Mortality by Achieving Healthy Dietary Goals for the Swedish Population: A Macro-Simulation Modelling Study

Longitudinal study of gut microbiome in obsessive-compulsive disorder

INTRODUCTION

Patients with obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) often have limited exposure to a diverse environment and perform repetitive compulsions such as excessive cleaning and washing, which could lead to altered gut microbiome. Therefore, longitudinal studies that investigate changes in gut microbiome before and after cognitive behavioral therapy based on exposure and response prevention (ERP) are warranted.

METHODS

All study participants (N = 64) underwent a structured psychiatric diagnostic interview prior to inclusion. Nutritional intake was assessed with a comprehensive food frequency questionnaire. Stool samples were collected from OCD patients before ERP (n = 32) and 1 month after completion of ERP (n = 15), as well as from healthy controls (HCs; n = 32). Taxonomic and functional analyses were performed using data from microbiome whole genome sequencing.

RESULTS

Patients with OCD at baseline reported consuming significantly less fiber than HCs (R2  = .12, F(2, 59) = 5.2, p ≤ .01). There were no significant differences in α- and β-diversity indices, or taxonomic dissimilarities at the species level between patients with OCD and HCs, or within patients before and after ERP. Functional profiling based on gut microbial gene expression was grouped into 56 gut-brain modules with neuroactive potential. None of the gut-brain modules differed significantly in expression between patients with OCD at baseline and HCs or within patients before and after ERP.

CONCLUSIONS

The diversity, composition, and functional profile of the gut microbiome in patients with OCD did not differ significantly from HCs and remained stable over time, despite behavioral changes.

Modelling the impact of sodium intake on cardiovascular disease mortality in Mexico

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) represent the main cause of death in Mexico, while high blood pressure is suffered by about half of the adult population. Sodium intake is one of the main risk factors for these diseases. The Mexican adult population consumes about 3.1 g/day, an amount that exceeds what is recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) < 2 g sodium/day. The objective of this study was to estimate the impact of reducing sodium intake on CVD mortality in Mexico using a scenario simulation model.

METHODS

The Integrated Model of Preventable Risk (PRIME) was used to estimate the number of deaths prevented or postponed (DPP) due to CVD in the Mexican adult population following the following sodium intake reduction scenarios: (a) according to the WHO recommendations; (b) an "optimistic" reduction of 30%; and (c) an "intermediate" reduction of 10%.

RESULTS

The results show that a total of 27,700 CVD deaths could be prevented or postponed for scenario A, 13,900 deaths for scenario B, and 5,800 for scenario C. For all scenarios, the highest percentages of DPP by type of CVD are related to ischemic heart disease, hypertensive disease, and stroke.

CONCLUSIONS

The results show that if Mexico considers implementing policies with greater impact to reduce sodium/salt consumption, a significant number of deaths from CVD could be prevented or postponed.

Estimating the dietary and health impact of implementing front-of-pack nutrition labeling in Canada: A macrosimulation modeling study

Background

Front-of-pack labeling (FOPL) has been identified as a cost-effective policy to promote healthy diets. Health Canada has recently published FOPL regulations that will require food and beverages that meet or exceed set thresholds for sodium, sugars, or saturated fat to display a 'high in' symbol on the front of the package. Although a promising measure, its potential impact on dietary intakes and health have not yet been estimated in Canada.

Objective

This study aims to estimate (1) the potential dietary impact of implementing a mandatory FOPL among Canadian adults; and (2) the number of diet-related non-communicable disease (NCD) deaths that could be averted or delayed due to these estimated dietary changes.

Methods

Baseline and counterfactual usual intakes of sodium, total sugars, saturated fats, and calories were estimated among Canadian adults (n = 11,992) using both available days of 24 h recalls from the 2015 Canadian Community Health Survey-Nutrition. The National Cancer Institute method was used to estimate usual intakes, and adjusted for age, sex, misreporting status, weekend/weekday, and sequence of recall. Estimated counterfactual dietary intakes were modeled from reductions observed in experimental and observational studies that examined changes in sodium, sugars, saturated fat, and calorie content of food purchases in the presence of a 'high in' FOPL (four counterfactual scenarios). The Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl was used to estimate potential health impacts.

Results

Estimated mean dietary reductions were between 31 and 212 mg/day of sodium, 2.3 and 8.7 g/day of total sugars, 0.8 and 3.7 g/day of saturated fats, and 16 and 59 kcal/day of calories. Between 2,183 (95% UI 2,008-2,361) and 8,907 (95% UI 8,095-9,667) deaths due to diet-related NCDs, mostly from cardiovascular diseases (~70%), could potentially be averted or delayed by implementing a 'high in' FOPL in Canada. This estimation represents between 2.4 and 9.6% of the total number of diet-related NCD deaths in Canada.

Conclusion

Results suggest that implementing a FOPL could significantly reduce sodium, total sugar, and saturated fat intakes among Canadian adults and subsequently prevent or postpone a substantial number of diet-related NCD deaths in Canada. These results provide critical evidence to inform policy decisions related to implementing FOPL in Canada.

Estimation of the economic benefits for the public health system related to salt reduction in Costa Rica

Excessive salt and sodium intake are strongly associated with high blood pressure and increased risk of cardiovascular disease. High blood pressure in turn is the main risk factor for the global burden of morbidity and mortality. The prevalence of this disease in the adult population of Costa Rica in 2018 was 37.2%. Costa Rica has limited information on the economic costs for the public health system and related of the prevalence of this type of disease mediated by dietary factors such as salt intake.

OBJECTIVE

to estimate the economic benefits for the public health system related to salt reduction in Costa Rica for the year 2018.

METHODOLOGY

estimation of the economic benefits for the public healthcare costs and productivity losses associated to reducing the per capita salt consumption of Costa Ricans to 5g/day, including the estimation of the Years of Life Productive Lost and of the direct costs on consultations, hospitalizations, and medications for the Costa Rica Social Security System.

RESULTS

The total annual costs of hospitalization, consultations, and medications attributable to excessive salt intake in the population older than 15 years of age for the year 2018, were estimated at USD $15.1 million. The highest were in hospitalizations (53%), followed by consultations and medications (32% and 15%, respectively).

CONCLUSION

NCDs caused by excessive salt intake represent important economic losses for the country, not only in terms of direct health costs, but also indirect due to the increase in years of potential life lost due to premature deaths because of CVD, which causes significant losses of human capital and, therefore, to the economy and the development of Costa Rica.

Estimating Canadian sodium intakes and the health impact of meeting national and WHO recommended sodium intake levels: A macrosimulation modelling study

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the second leading cause of total deaths in Canada. High blood pressure is the main metabolic risk factor for developing CVDs. It has been well established that excess consumption of sodium adversely affects blood pressure. Canadians' mean sodium intakes are well above recommended levels. Reducing dietary sodium intake through food reformulation has been identified as a cost-effective intervention, however, dietary sodium intake and the potential health impact of meeting recommended sodium intake levels due to food reformulation have not been determined in Canada.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to 1) obtain robust estimates of Canadians' usual sodium intakes, 2) model sodium intakes had foods been reformulated to align with Health Canada's sodium reduction targets, and 3) estimate the number of CVD deaths that could be averted or delayed if Canadian adults were to reduce their mean sodium intake to recommended levels under three scenarios: A) 2,300 mg/d-driven by a reduction of sodium levels in packaged foods to meet Health Canada targets (reformulation); B) 2,000 mg/d to meet the World Health Organization (WHO) recommendation; and C) 1,500 mg/d to meet the Adequate Intake recommendation.

METHODS

Foods in the University of Toronto's Food Label Information Program 2017, a Canadian branded food composition database, were linked to nationally representative food intake data from the 2015 Canadian Community Health Survey-Nutrition to estimate sodium intakes (and intakes had Health Canada's reformulation strategy been fully implemented). The Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl (PRIME) was used to estimate potential health impact.

RESULTS

Overall, mean sodium intake was 2758 mg/day, varying by age and sex group. Based on 'reformulation' scenario A, mean sodium intakes were reduced by 459 mg/day, to 2299 mg/day. Reducing Canadians' sodium intake to recommended levels under scenarios A, B and C could have averted or delayed 2,176 (95% UI 869-3,687), 3,252 (95% UI 1,380-5,321), and 5,296 (95% UI 2,190-8,311) deaths due to CVDs, respectively, mainly from ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and hypertensive disease. This represents 3.7%, 5.6%, and 9.1%, respectively, of the total number of CVDs deaths observed in Canada in 2019.

CONCLUSION

Results suggest that reducing sodium intake to recommended levels could prevent or postpone a substantial number of CVD deaths in Canada. Reduced sodium intakes could be achieved through reformulation of the Canadian food supply. However, it will require higher compliance from the food industry to achieve Health Canada's voluntary benchmark sodium reduction targets.

Projected impact of change in the percentage of energy from each NOVA group intake on cardiovascular disease mortality in Brazil: a modelling study

OBJECTIVE

Estimate reductions in cardiovascular mortality achievable through improvement in nutrient intakes according to processing level (NOVA classification), that is, reducing consumption of culinary ingredients (G2), processed (G3) and ultra-processed foods (G4) while encouraging consumption of unprocessed and minimally processed foods (G1).

DESIGN

Modelling study.

SETTING

General adult population of Brazil.

PARTICIPANTS

Men and women aged 25 or more years (34 003) investigated in the Household Budget Survey 2017-2018, in the consumption data module.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

We used the IMPACT Food Policy Model to estimate the reduction in deaths from cardiovascular diseases (CVD) up to 2048 in five scenarios with reductions in saturated fat, trans fat, salt and added sugar intakes resulting from changes in NOVA groups. (1) The optimistic scenario modelised an increase in the energy intake provided by G1 and a reduction in the energy intake from G2, G3 and G4, return to previous levels. (2) The minimal scenario modelised a 3.7% increase in the energy intake from G1, and a reduction in the energy intake from G4 to the 2008-2009 level. (3) The modest scenario only modelised a 25.0% reduction of the energy intake from G2 and G3. (4) The intermediary scenario modelised the minimal scenario plus a 25.0% reduction in the energy intake from G2. (5) Finally, the advanced scenario modelised the minimal scenario plus a 25.0% reduction in the energy intake from G2 and G3.

RESULTS

Proposed changes in the optimistic scenario could prevent or delay 52.8% CVD-related deaths by 2048. Changes modelled in the minimal, modest, intermediary and advanced scenarios may result in a 10.1%, 28.4%, 31.4% and 38.6% reduction in 2048 CVD mortality, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Substantial health gains can be achieved by improving the diet, through plausible modifications aimed at the level of processing as a tool for Brazilian food policies.

In search of an appropriate mix of taxes and subsidies on nutrients and food: A modelling study of the effectiveness on health-related consumption and mortality

Taxes and subsidies on foods and nutrients have the potential to promote healthier diets and thereby reduce mortality. In this study, we examine the effects of such policy instruments on Swedish public health. Specifically, we estimate the effects of food and nutrient taxes and subsidies on mortality averted and postponed in Sweden, using both demand system estimations and simulation models. We evaluate different Value Added Tax (VAT) reforms. The VAT is raised on food products that are particularly rich in saturated fat or salt and lowered on fruit and vegetables. Our models predict that an increase in the current VAT of 12% on food, to 25% VAT on products rich in saturated fat plus a 0% VAT on fruits and vegetables would result in almost 1100 deaths (95% CI: -832; -1363) averted or postponed in a year in Sweden, while the combination of a 34.4% VAT on products rich in saturated fat and a -10.4% VAT (i.e. a subsidy) on fruits and vegetables would result in almost 2100 (95% CI: -1572; -2311) deaths averted or postponed corresponding to a 4.8% reduction in diet-related annual death. Most of the deaths averted or delayed from this reform would be deaths from coronary heart disease (-1,148, 95% CI: -728; -1586), followed by stroke -641 (95% CI: -408; -887) and diet-related cancer deaths (-288, 95% CI: -11; -435). We find that health-related food taxes and subsidies improve dietary habits as well as reduce the mortality of the Swedish population. However, the effect of these reforms on different socioeconomic classes and which reforms provide the best value for money, i.e., cost-effectiveness of these reforms needs to be established first before implementation.

Potential health impact of increasing adoption of sustainable dietary practices in Sweden

BACKGROUND

An urgent transition to more sustainable diets is necessary for the improvement of human and planetary health. One way to achieve this is for sustainable practices to become mainstream. We estimated the potential health impact of wider adoption of dietary practices deemed by consumers, researchers and stakeholders in Sweden to be niche, sustainable and with the potential to be scaled up.

METHODS

A life table method was used to estimate the impact - changes in years of life lost (YLL) - over periods of 20 and 30 years in the Swedish population had the practices been adopted in 2010-11, when the last national adult dietary survey was conducted. The practices modelled were reducing red and processed meat (by 25, 50 and 100%), and assuming, for each stage, replacement by an equal weight of poultry/fish and vegetables +/- legumes; reducing milk intake (by 25, 50 and 100%); and reducing sugar-sweetened beverage intake (by 25, 50 and 100%). Using population data together with data on cause-specific mortality and relative risks for diet-disease outcomes, impacts were estimated for each scenario separately and in combination, for the outcomes ischaemic heart disease (IHD), ischaemic stroke, diabetes type 2 and colorectal cancer.

RESULTS

For a "moderate" combination of scenarios (changes at the 50% level), reductions of 513,200 YLL (lower-upper uncertainty estimate 59,400-797,900) could have been achieved over 20 years and 1,148,500 YLL (135,900-1,786,600) over 30 years. The majority (over 90%) of YLLs prevented were related to IHD, and the majority were in men. The singular practice that had the most impact was reducing the intake of red and processed meat and replacing it with a mixture of vegetables and legumes. Reducing milk intake resulted in an increase in YLL, but this was compensated for by other scenarios.

CONCLUSION

If these practices were more widely adopted, they would be expected to lead to improvements in public health in Sweden. Over the long term, this would translate to many premature deaths postponed or prevented from a number of chronic diseases, to the benefit of individuals, society, the climate and the economy.

Public health potential of guidelines-based dietary scores for non-communicable diseases mortality prevention: simulation study using the Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl (PRIME) model

OBJECTIVE

Dietary indexes measure the adherence of individuals to a set of nutritional recommendations. However, the health gains associated with adherence to various dietary indexes may vary. Our objective was to compare the magnitude of estimated avoided deaths by chronic diseases obtained by improving diet quality in the French population, measured by a variety of dietary indexes.

DESIGN

Simulation study based on observational data.

SETTING

Weighted data from a French population-based cohort study.

PARTICIPANTS

In participants from the NutriNet-Santé cohort, we computed dietary scores reflecting the adherence to various recommendations (Medi-Lite, Healthy Diet Indicator (HDI), Programme National Nutrition Santé/National Nutrition and Health Program - Guidelines Score, Diet Quality Index (DQI), Alternative Healthy Eating Index (AHEI) and the modified Food Standards Agency nutrient profiling system dietary index (FSAm-NPS DI)). Quintiles of the food groups' consumption and dietary intakes were used as input in a simulation model (Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl (PRIME)), yielding the number of delayed or avoided deaths in nutrition-related non-communicable diseases, comparing between very high or very low nutritional quality of the diet and medium nutritional quality.

RESULTS

A modification of dietary intakes from medium quality to very low quality (i.e. from the middle quintile to the quintile with the lowest nutritional quality) was associated with an increased number of deaths ranging from 3485 (95 % uncertainty interval (CI) 4002, 2987) for HDI and 3379 (95 % CI 3881, 2894) for FSAm-NPS DI to 838 (95 % CI 1163, 523) for Medi-Lite. Conversely, a modification of dietary intakes from medium quality to very high quality was associated with a decrease in the number of deaths ranging from 1995 (95 % CI 1676, 2299) for Probability of Adequate Nutrient intake diet, 1986 (95 % CI 1565, 2361) for DQI-International, 1931 (95 % CI 1499, 2316) for FSAm-NPS DI and 858 (95 % CI 499, 1205) for HDI.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results provide some insights as the potential impact of following various dietary guidelines to reduce mortality from nutrition-related diseases.

Impact of salt intake reduction on CVD mortality in Costa Rica: A scenario modelling study

Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) represent the leading cause of death in Costa Rica and high blood pressure was associated with a mortality rate of 29% in 2018. The average household sodium intake in the country is also two times higher than the World Health Organization recommendation. The objective of this study was to estimate the impact of reducing salt intake on CVD mortality in Costa Rica using a scenario simulation model. The Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl (PRIME) was used to estimate the number of deaths that would be averted or delayed in the Costa Rican population by following the national and the international guidelines to reduce salt consumption, according to two scenarios: A) 46% reduction and B) 15% reduction, both at an energy intake of 2171 kcal. The scenarios estimated that between 4% and 13%, respectively, of deaths due to CVD would be prevented or postponed. The highest percentages of deaths prevented or postponed by type of CVD would be related to Coronary heart disease (39% and 38%, respectively), Hypertensive disease (32% and 33%, respectively), and Stroke (22% in both). The results demonstrate that reducing salt consumption could prevent or postpone an important number of deaths in Costa Rica. More support for existing policies and programs urges.

Preparing India to Leverage Power of Mobile Technology: Development of a Bilingual Mobile Health Tool for Heart Patients

BACKGROUND

Mobile health technology offers promising means to implement public health strategies for the prevention and management of chronic conditions. However, at the moment, there is a dearth of both; specific mobile health tools tailored for the knowledge and language needs of Indian population; as well as enough systematic and scientific clinical data to analyse their impact in varied Indian socioeconomic and disease populations.

OBJECTIVE

To develop a smartphone-based bilingual educational mobile application for heart patients and pilot test in an Indian clinical setting.

METHODS

An Android™ based mobile application was developed according to a systematic instructional design model. Thereafter, expert assessment was done by 3 software engineers and 2 healthcare professionals using a peer-reviewed, objective and multidimensional Mobile Application Rating Scale (MARS). A pilot user satisfaction evaluation was done based on feedback from 35 Coronary Artery Disease patients visiting Cardiology outpatient Department of a North Indian tertiary care centre.

RESULTS

An Android™ based mobile application named as 'Happy Heart' was developed. The content was developed in both Hindi and English under professional supervision. For this mobile application, the Mean MARS score was 3.60 ± 0.86 and subjectivity score was 3.30 ± 1.03. The overall user satisfaction response for the mobile application was 4.09 ± 0.75 indicating that most of the testers found it useful.

CONCLUSION

This mobile application is developed as a research tool to further conduct a clinical study in Coronary Artery Disease Patients. Current evaluation was a pilot testing wherein this application showed promising results.

Modelling the Effect of Compliance with Nordic Nutrition Recommendations on Cardiovascular Disease and Cancer Mortality in the Nordic Countries

The objective of this study is to estimate the number of deaths attributable to cardiovascular diseases and diet-related cancers that could be prevented or delayed in the Nordic countries, i.e., Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Iceland, if adults adhere to the Nordic Nutrition Recommendations (NNR). A sex- and age-group specific epidemiological macro-simulation model was used to estimate the preventable deaths due to the differences between country specific actual intake and recommended intake of changes in food components. Data included in the model are a baseline scenario (actual dietary intake), a counterfactual scenario (recommended intake), and age-and sex-specific mortality for cardiovascular and diet-related cancer diseases, together with the total population risk of a specific year. Monte Carlo analyses with 5000 iterations were performed to produce the 95% uncertainty intervals. The model predicts that Iceland would benefit the most by adhering to the NNR, followed by Finland. In all the Nordic countries, the highest benefit would be achieved by adhering to the fruits and vegetable intakes, except Denmark, where a lower recommended intake of salt would provide the highest benefit. For men, fruits and vegetables could have saved more lives compared to other dietary components for all the Nordic countries, while for women, dietary fiber was the most prominent factor, except in Iceland. The Nordic Council should consider policies for promoting healthy eating according to the needs of each country.

Vegetable-Based Diets for Chronic Kidney Disease? It Is Time to Reconsider

Traditional dietary recommendations to renal patients limited the intake of fruits and vegetables because of their high potassium content. However, this paradigm is rapidly changing due to the multiple benefits derived from a fundamentally vegetarian diet such as, improvement in gut dysbiosis, reducing the number of pathobionts and protein-fermenting species leading to a decreased production of the most harmful uremic toxins, while the high fiber content of these diets enhances intestinal motility and short-chain fatty acid production. Metabolic acidosis in chronic kidney disease (CKD) is aggravated by the high consumption of meat and refined cereals, increasing the dietary acid load, while the intake of fruit and vegetables is able to neutralize the acidosis and its deleterious consequences. Phosphorus absorption and bioavailability is also lower in a vegetarian diet, reducing hyperphosphatemia, a known cause of cardiovascular mortality in CKD. The richness of multiple plants in magnesium and vitamin K avoids their deficiency, which is common in these patients. These beneficial effects, together with the reduction of inflammation and oxidative stress observed with these diets, may explain the reduction in renal patients' complications and mortality, and may slow CKD progression. Finally, although hyperkalemia is the main concern of these diets, the use of adequate cooking techniques can minimize the amount absorbed.