The Outcome and Implications of Public Precautionary Measures in Taiwan-Declining Respiratory Disease Cases in the COVID-19 Pandemic

Mitigating aerosol-induced respiratory infections in home quarantine: The role of door dynamics and ventilation in residential design

Respiratory infectious diseases, notably recurring waves of COVID-19 during autumn and winter, have significantly impacted global health and strained public health systems. Home isolation has emerged as a crucial and economical strategy to mitigate these impacts. This study investigates aerosol transmission and infection risks in home isolation environments using the Lattice Boltzmann Method with Large Eddy Simulation (LBM-LES). We focused on the impact of door operations and various natural ventilation rates on aerosol transmission and exposure risk in adjacent rooms. Our findings reveal that, without ventilation, aerosol leakage through door gaps poses a minimal infection risk to adjacent rooms, with an average probability of less than 2 × 10-5. However, with adequate ventilation, the infection risk for individuals in adjacent rooms for over 3 h can reach 60 %-70 %. Brief door movements have limited impact on infection risk (p ≤ 0.05, d ≤ 0.20), with aerosol leakage mainly occurring through door gaps rather than door movements. To reduce cross-infection during home isolation, we recommend avoiding prolonged stays near downwind walls facing the door. This research provides insights into aerosol dynamics in home isolation scenarios, offering theoretical guidance for designing safe isolation spaces and practical advice for healthy family members to minimize infection risk.

Covid-19 pandemic, social normative compliance, and sustainable consumption: Evidence from experiments

This research aims to investigate the causal effects of consumers' Covid-19 pandemic experiences on their preferences for sustainable consumption. Drawing on social identity theory, we argue that pandemic experiences heighten consumers' awareness of the importance of adhering to collective social norms, subsequently motivating them to adopt sustainable consumption practices that promote collective interests. Through three preregistered experiments, we demonstrate that: (i) Covid-19 pandemic experiences increase consumers' preferences for sustainable consumption; (ii) this effect is more pronounced for individuals with severer pandemic experiences and females; (iii) pandemic experiences influence sustainable consumption preferences by enhancing consumers' social normative compliance. This study contributes to the understanding of Covid-19's consequences from a micro-level perspective of consumer behavior and offers insights into the factors driving consumers' sustainable consumption preferences.

Changes in Spectrum of Respiratory Pathogen Infections and Disease Severity Among Children in Hohhot, China: Impact of COVID-19 Prevention Measures

BACKGROUND This retrospective study evaluated the effects of specific COVID-19 preventive measures, including the use of medical masks, nucleic acid testing, and patient isolation, on respiratory infections, disease severity, and seasonal patterns among children in Hohhot, located in northern China. Understanding these alterations is pivotal in developing effective strategies to handle pediatric respiratory infections within the context of continuous public health initiatives. MATERIAL AND METHODS At the First Hospital of Hohhot, throat swabs were collected from 605 children with community-acquired respiratory between January 2022 and March 2023 for pathogen infection spectrum detection using microarray testing. RESULTS Among the patients, 56.03% were male, and their average age was 3.45 years. SARS-CoV-2 infections were highest between October 2022 and January 2023. Influenza A peaked in March 2023, and other pathogens such as respiratory syncytial virus and influenza B virus disappeared after December 2022. The proportion of mixed infections was 41.94% among SARS-CoV-2 patients, while other pathogens had mixed infection rates exceeding 57.14%. Before December 2022, the mean WBC count for Streptococcus pneumoniae and Haemophilus influenzae was 8.83×10⁹/L, CRP was 18.36 mg/L, and PCT was 1.11 ng/ml. After December 2022, these values decreased significantly. Coughing, difficulty breathing, running nose, and lower respiratory tract infection diagnoses decreased in December 2022, except for SARS-CoV-2 infections. CONCLUSIONS SARS-CoV-2 peaked around November 2022, influenza A peaked in March 2023, and other pathogens like respiratory syncytial virus and influenza B virus were greatly reduced after December 2022. Inflammatory markers and respiratory symptoms decreased after December 2022, except for SARS-CoV-2.

Alleviation of PM2.5-associated Risk of Daily Influenza Hospitalization by COVID-19 Lockdown Measures: A Time-series Study in Northeastern Thailand

OBJECTIVES

Abrupt changes in air pollution levels associated with the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak present a unique opportunity to evaluate the effects of air pollution on influenza risk, at a time when emission sources were less active and personal hygiene practices were more rigorous.

METHODS

This time-series study examined the relationship between influenza cases (n=22 874) and air pollutant concentrations from 2018 to 2021, comparing the timeframes before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in and around Thailand's Khon Kaen province. Poisson generalized additive modeling was employed to estimate the relative risk of hospitalization for influenza associated with air pollutant levels.

RESULTS

Before the COVID-19 outbreak, both the average daily number of influenza hospitalizations and particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 μm or less (PM2.5) concentration exceeded those later observed during the pandemic (p<0.001). In single-pollutant models, a 10 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 before COVID-19 was significantly associated with increased influenza risk upon exposure to cumulative-day lags, specifically lags 0-5 and 0-6 (p<0.01). After adjustment for co-pollutants, PM2.5 demonstrated the strongest effects at lags 0 and 4, with elevated risk found across all cumulative-day lags (0-1, 0-2, 0-3, 0-4, 0-5, and 0-6) and significantly greater risk in the winter and summer at lag 0-5 (p<0.01). However, the PM2.5 level was not significantly associated with influenza risk during the COVID-19 outbreak.

CONCLUSIONS

Lockdown measures implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic could mitigate the risk of PM2.5-induced influenza. Effective regulatory actions in the context of COVID-19 may decrease PM2.5 emissions and improve hygiene practices, thereby reducing influenza hospitalizations.

Impact of the COVID-19 related border restrictions on influenza and other common respiratory viral infections in New Zealand

BACKGROUND

New Zealand's (NZ) complete absence of community transmission of influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) after May 2020, likely due to COVID-19 elimination measures, provided a rare opportunity to assess the impact of border restrictions on common respiratory viral infections over the ensuing 2 years.

METHODS

We collected the data from multiple surveillance systems, including hospital-based severe acute respiratory infection surveillance, SHIVERS-II, -III and -IV community cohorts for acute respiratory infection (ARI) surveillance, HealthStat sentinel general practice (GP) based influenza-like illness surveillance and SHIVERS-V sentinel GP-based ARI surveillance, SHIVERS-V traveller ARI surveillance and laboratory-based surveillance. We described the data on influenza, RSV and other respiratory viral infections in NZ before, during and after various stages of the COVID related border restrictions.

RESULTS

We observed that border closure to most people, and mandatory government-managed isolation and quarantine on arrival for those allowed to enter, appeared to be effective in keeping influenza and RSV infections out of the NZ community. Border restrictions did not affect community transmission of other respiratory viruses such as rhinovirus and parainfluenza virus type-1. Partial border relaxations through quarantine-free travel with Australia and other countries were quickly followed by importation of RSV in 2021 and influenza in 2022.

CONCLUSION

Our findings inform future pandemic preparedness and strategies to model and manage the impact of influenza and other respiratory viral threats.

A decreased impact of air pollution on hospital pneumonia visits during COVID-19 outbreak in northeastern Thailand

Background

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic had effects on changes in people, society, and pollutant sources. This was a unique research opportunity to assess the effects on the risk of pneumonia resulted from the changes in air pollution and personal hygiene regarding city lockdown.

Methods

This study, we estimated time-series relative risks (RRs) of pneumonia (n=94,288) associated with PM10, PM2.5, NO2, and O3 in Khon Kaen province and its vicinity, using Poison regression with generalized additive model and compared air pollutant-associated risk of pneumonia before vs. during the COVID-19 outbreak [2018-2021].

Results

During the COVID-19 period, pneumonia cases, PM2.5, PM10, and NO2 levels were lower than those before the COVID-19 but the O3 level was significantly higher. The single-pollutant analyses showed that the increase in PM10, PM2.5, and NO2 were significantly associated with pneumonia risks at single-day lag 0 in the earlier two years (2018-2019). For multi-pollutant analyses, there were higher RRs in PM2.5 at lag 0 [RR =1.078, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.004 to 1.157], lag 4 (RR =1.054, 95% CI: 1.011 to 1.098) and lag 5 (RR =1.090, 95% CI: 1.021 to 1.165) and for all cumulative-day lags, greatest was at lag 0-5 (RR =1.314, 95% CI: 1.200 to 1.439) before the COVID-19 period while there were lower pneumonia RRs of a 10-µg/m3 increase in PM2.5 at single-day lag 1 (RR =1.064, 95% CI: 1.002 to 1.130) and for all cumulative-day lags, greatest was at lag 0-5 (RR =1.201, 95% CI: 1.073 to 1.344) during the COVID-19 outbreak. Multi-pollutant of NO2 significantly increased pneumonia risk in cumulative day exposure before the COVID-19 outbreak at lag 0-3 (RR =1.050, 95% CI: 1.001 to 1.100). It was significantly greater than that risk during the outbreak.

Conclusions

This study revealed that the lockdown measures to control COVID-19 were effective in improving air quality and lowering associated pneumonia risk. These findings would help raise awareness about measures and policies to preserve the air quality to increase respiratory health benefits.

Synthesis and Biological Activities of Oxazolidinone Pleuromutilin Derivatives as a Potent Anti-MRSA Agent

A series of pleuromutilin derivatives containing an oxazolidinone skeleton were synthesized and evaluated in vitro and in vivo as antibacterial agents. Most of the synthesized derivatives exhibited potent antibacterial activities against three strains of Staphylococcus aureus (including MRSA ATCC 33591, MRSA ATCC 43300, and MSSA ATCC 29213) and two strains of Staphylococcus epidermidis (including MRSE ATCC 51625 and MSSE ATCC 12228). Compound 28 was the most active antibacterial agent in vitro (MIC = 0.008-0.125 μg·mL-1) and exhibited a significant bactericidal effect, low cytotoxicity, and weak inhibition (IC50 = 20.66 μmol·L-1) for CYP3A4, as well as exhibited less possibility to cause bacterial resistance. Furthermore, in vivo activities indicated that the compound was effective in reducing MRSA load in a murine thigh infection model. Moreover, it clearly facilitated the healing of MRSA skin infection and inhibited the secretion of the TNF-α, IL-6, and MCP-1 inflammatory factors in serum. These results suggest that oxazolidinone pleuromutilin is a promising therapeutic candidate for drug-resistant bacterial infections.

Effects on mortality of shielding clinically extremely vulnerable patients in Liverpool, UK, during the COVID-19 pandemic

OBJECTIVE

This study evaluates the impact of England's COVID-19 shielding programme on mortality in the City of Liverpool in North West England.

STUDY DESIGN

Shielded and non-shielded people are compared using data from linked routine health records on all people registered with a general practitioner in Liverpool from April 2020 to June 2021.

METHODS

A discrete time hazard model and interactions between the shielding status and the periods of higher risk of transmission are used to explore the effects of shielding across the major phases of the COVID-19 pandemic.

RESULTS

Shielding was associated with a 34% reduction in the risk of dying (HR = 0.66, 95% CI: 0.58 to 0.76) compared with a propensity-matched non-shielded group. Shielding appeared to reduce mortality during the first and third waves, but not during the second wave, where shielding was not mandated by the government. The effects were similar for males and females, but more protective for those living in the least deprived areas of Liverpool.

CONCLUSIONS

It is likely that the shielding programme in Liverpool saved lives, although this seems to have been a little less effective in more deprived areas. A comprehensive programme for identifying vulnerable groups and providing them with advice and support is likely to be important for future respiratory virus pandemics. Additional support may be necessary for socio-economically disadvantaged groups to avoid increased inequalities.

The indirect impacts of nonpharmacological COVID-19 control measures on other infectious diseases in Yinchuan, Northwest China: a time series study

BACKGROUND

Various nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) against COVID-19 continue to have an impact on socioeconomic and population behaviour patterns. However, the effect of NPIs on notifiable infectious diseases remains inconclusive due to the variability of the disease spectrum, high-incidence endemic diseases and environmental factors across different geographical regions. Thus, it is of public health interest to explore the influence of NPIs on notifiable infectious diseases in Yinchuan, Northwest China.

METHODS

Based on data on notifiable infectious diseases (NIDs), air pollutants, meteorological data, and the number of health institutional personnel in Yinchuan, we first fitted dynamic regression time series models to the incidence of NIDs from 2013 to 2019 and then estimated the incidence for 2020. Then, we compared the projected time series data with the observed incidence of NIDs in 2020. We calculated the relative reduction in NIDs at different emergency response levels in 2020 to identify the impacts of NIPs on NIDs in Yinchuan.

RESULTS

A total of 15,711 cases of NIDs were reported in Yinchuan in 2020, which was 42.59% lower than the average annual number of cases from 2013 to 2019. Natural focal diseases and vector-borne infectious diseases showed an increasing trend, as the observed incidence in 2020 was 46.86% higher than the estimated cases. The observed number of cases changed in respiratory infectious diseases, intestinal infectious diseases and sexually transmitted or bloodborne diseases were 65.27%, 58.45% and 35.01% higher than the expected number, respectively. The NIDs with the highest reductions in each subgroup were hand, foot, and mouth disease (5854 cases), infectious diarrhoea (2157 cases) and scarlet fever (832 cases), respectively. In addition, it was also found that the expected relative reduction in NIDs in 2020 showed a decline across different emergency response levels, as the relative reduction dropped from 65.65% (95% CI: -65.86%, 80.84%) during the level 1 response to 52.72% (95% CI: 20.84%, 66.30%) during the level 3 response.

CONCLUSIONS

The widespread implementation of NPIs in 2020 may have had significant inhibitory effects on the incidence of respiratory infectious diseases, intestinal infectious diseases and sexually transmitted or bloodborne diseases. The relative reduction in NIDs during different emergency response levels in 2020 showed a declining trend as the response level changed from level 1 to level 3. These results can serve as essential guidance for policy-makers and stakeholders to take specific actions to control infectious diseases and protect vulnerable populations in the future.

Evidence-Based Policy Making during the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Pandemic: A Systematic Review

INTRODUCTION

The aim of this systematic review was to collect evidence and recommendations for the applicability of the concept of evidence-based policy making (EBPM) during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and to discuss the implementation of this concept from a medical science perspective.

METHODS

This study was performed according to the guidelines, checklist, and flow diagram of Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) 2020. An electronic literature search was conducted on September 20, 2022 using PubMed, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, and CINAHL databases with the following search terms: "evidence based policy making" and "infectious disease." Study eligibility assessment was performed based on the flow diagram of PRISMA 2020, and risk of bias assessment was performed using The Critical Appraisal Skills Program.

RESULTS

Eleven eligible articles were included in this review and divided into three groups as follows: early, middle, and late stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. Basics of COVID-19 control were suggested in the early stage. The articles published in the middle stage discussed the importance of the collection and analysis of evidence of COVID-19 from around the world for the establishment of EBPM in the COVID-19 pandemic. The articles published in the late stage discussed the collection of large amounts of high-quality data and the development of methods to analyze them, as well as emerging issues related to the COVID-19 pandemic.

CONCLUSIONS

This study revealed that the concept of EBPM applicable to emerging infectious disease pandemics changed between the early, middle, and late stages of the pandemic. The concept of EBPM will play an important role in medicine in the future.

Artificial Intelligence: A Next-Level Approach in Confronting the COVID-19 Pandemic

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) which caused coronavirus diseases (COVID-19) in late 2019 in China created a devastating economical loss and loss of human lives. To date, 11 variants have been identified with minimum to maximum severity of infection and surges in cases. Bacterial co-infection/secondary infection is identified during viral respiratory infection, which is a vital reason for morbidity and mortality. The occurrence of secondary infections is an additional burden to the healthcare system; therefore, the quick diagnosis of both COVID-19 and secondary infections will reduce work pressure on healthcare workers. Therefore, well-established support from Artificial Intelligence (AI) could reduce the stress in healthcare and even help in creating novel products to defend against the coronavirus. AI is one of the rapidly growing fields with numerous applications for the healthcare sector. The present review aims to access the recent literature on the role of AI and how its subfamily machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) are used to curb the pandemic's effects. We discuss the role of AI in COVID-19 infections, the detection of secondary infections, technology-assisted protection from COVID-19, global laws and regulations on AI, and the impact of the pandemic on public life.

A comparative in-vitro study on antimicrobial efficacy of on-market alcohol-based hand washing sanitizers towards combating microbes and its application in combating Covid-19 global outbreak

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak has created endless social, economic, and political fear in the global human population. Measures employed include frequent washing hands and using alcohol-based hand sanitisers and hand rubs as instant hand hygiene products. Due to the need to mitigate the pandermic, there is an increase in the local production of alcohol-based hand sanitisers, whose quality and efficacy against germs and the virus are questionable. Therefore, the current study investigated the in-vitro antimicrobial efficacy of on-market alcohol-based handwashing sanitizers used to mitigate the Covid-19 global outbreak toward combating enveloped bacteria such as E. Coli, P. aeroginosa, S. aureus, and a fungus C. albicans. The antimicrobial effectiveness of alcohol-based hand sanitizer was performed by the agar well diffusion method, and the analysis of variance (ANOVA) model was used for statistical analysis. Results indicate that alcohol hand-based sanitizers were more effective in inhibiting P. aeroginosa, with a mean zone of inhibition of 12.47 mm, followed by E. coli, a gram-negative bacterium with a mean zone of inhibition of 12.13 mm than both S. aureus and C. albicans as gram-positive bacteria, and fungi respectively had the same inhibition average of 11.40 mm. The overall mean diameter of inhibition was statistically significantly different among the fifteen tested products. Only one brand of alcohol-based hand sanitizers was the most effective in inhibiting microbes. Less effective sanitizers may impair Covid 19 mitigation efforts and put the population at risk instead of protecting it. Indicating the need for all materials used to mitigate Covid 19 pandermic, including alcohol-based hand sanitizers, to be evaluated and monitored to ensure public health safety.

Narrative review on century of respiratory pandemics from Spanish flu to COVID-19 and impact of nanotechnology on COVID-19 diagnosis and immune system boosting

The rise of the highly lethal severe acute respiratory syndrome-2 (SARS-2) as corona virus 2019 (COVID-19) reminded us of the history of other pandemics that happened in the last century (Spanish flu) and stayed in the current century, which include Severe-Acute-Respiratory-Syndrome (SARS), Middle-East-Respiratory-Syndrome (MERS), Corona Virus 2019 (COVID-19). We review in this report the newest findings and data on the origin of pandemic respiratory viral diseases, reservoirs, and transmission modes. We analyzed viral adaption needed for host switch and determinants of pathogenicity, causative factors of pandemic viruses, and symptoms and clinical manifestations. After that, we concluded the host factors associated with pandemics morbidity and mortality (immune responses and immunopathology, ages, and effect of pandemics on pregnancy). Additionally, we focused on the burdens of COVID-19, non-pharmaceutical interventions (quarantine, mass gatherings, facemasks, and hygiene), and medical interventions (antiviral therapies and vaccines). Finally, we investigated the nanotechnology between COVID-19 analysis and immune system boosting (Nanoparticles (NPs), antimicrobial NPs as antivirals and immune cytokines). This review presents insights about using nanomaterials to treat COVID-19, improve the bioavailability of the abused drugs, diminish their toxicity, and improve their performance.

Behavioral compliance with preventive health measures for students with and without hearing disability during COVID-19 pandemic: A cross-sectional study

Background

Hearing loss affects over 1.5 billion individuals worldwide. Their disability and limited access to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic information make them suffer a greater degree than ordinary people. However, the quantitative studies on the implementation of behavior compliance with preventive health measures for vulnerable groups such as people with hearing disability were limited. The purpose of this study was to explore the compliance with pandemic-related protective health measures among people with hearing disability.

Design

A cross-sectional survey, population-based cohort study of students aged 12-26 years with and without hearing disability was conducted. Behavioral compliance with preventive health measures was collected from the general education institutions and special education schools using an online questionnaire. Logistic regression and structural equation model were used to determine the associations among the demographic variables, different degrees of mental health status and psychological impacts, and preventive health behaviors.

Results

Among 1,589 participants, 485 (30.5%) students are with hearing disability (SHD), and 1,104 (69.5%) students with normal hearing (SNH). The SHD has a significantly lower degree of behavioral compliance with the preventive health measures than SNH has. Hearing disability and anxiety [odds ratio (OR) = 1.54-1.76, p < 0.05] are risk factors for avoiding sharing of utensils during mealtime. Hearing disability, male sex, father's education level, mother's profession, bedtime after 11:00 p.m., anxiety, and depression (OR = 1.45-2.95, p < 0.05) are risk factors for hand hygiene. Male sex (OR = 2.13, p < 0.001) is risk factor and being aged below 18 years old (OR = 0.62, p = 0.03) is protective factor for wearing masks. Exercise (OR = 0.32-0.70, p < 0.01) is the most protective factor for preventive health behaviors. Mediating effect of mental health status and psychological impacts between hearing level and the compliance with the preventive health measures was -0.044 (95% CI: -0.068 to -0.027).

Conclusions

To reduce the risk of contraction, update pandemic information, essential communication services, extra assistance, and support should be provided to these disabled persons who are more susceptible to a public health emergency.

Changes in the pattern and disease burden of acute viral respiratory infections before and during the COVID-19 pandemic

Objectives

We conducted a comparative analysis of the differences in the incidence of 8 acute respiratory viruses and the changes in their patterns before and during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.

Methods

Three sentinel surveillance systems of the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency and data from the Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service were analyzed. The average numbers of reported cases and the related hospital admissions and outpatient data were compared between April 2018–2019 and 2020–2021. Changes in the disease burden and medical expenditures between these 2 time periods were evaluated.

Results

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the number of reported cases of all acute respiratory viral infections, except for human bocavirus, decreased significantly. Data from the Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service also showed decreases in the actual amount of medical service usage and a marked reduction in medical expenditures.

Conclusion

Non-pharmacological interventions in response to COVID-19 showed preventive effects on the transmission of other respiratory viruses, as well as COVID-19. Although COVID-19 had a tremendous impact on society as a whole, with high social costs, there were also positive effects, such as a reduction in the incidence of acute respiratory viral infections.

SARS-CoV-2 and other airborne respiratory viruses in outdoor aerosols in three Swiss cities before and during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic

Caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been affecting the world since the end of 2019. While virus-laden particles have been commonly detected and studied in the aerosol samples from indoor healthcare settings, studies are scarce on air surveillance of the virus in outdoor non-healthcare environments, including the correlations between SARS-CoV-2 and other respiratory viruses, between viruses and environmental factors, and between viruses and human behavior changes due to the public health measures against COVID-19. Therefore, in this study, we collected airborne particulate matter (PM) samples from November 2019 to April 2020 in Bern, Lugano, and Zurich. Among 14 detected viruses, influenza A, HCoV-NL63, HCoV-HKU1, and HCoV-229E were abundant in air. SARS-CoV-2 and enterovirus were moderately common, while the remaining viruses occurred only in low concentrations. SARS-CoV-2 was detected in PM10 (PM below 10 µm) samples of Bern and Zurich, and PM2.5 (PM below 2.5 µm) samples of Bern which exhibited a concentration positively correlated with the local COVID-19 case number. The concentration was also correlated with the concentration of enterovirus which raised the concern of coinfection. The estimated COVID-19 infection risks of an hour exposure at these two sites were generally low but still cannot be neglected. Our study demonstrated the potential functionality of outdoor air surveillance of airborne respiratory viruses, especially at transportation hubs and traffic arteries.

The effectiveness of governmental nonpharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 at controlling seasonal influenza transmission: an ecological study

BACKGROUND

A range of strict nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were implemented in many countries to combat the coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. These NPIs may also be effective at controlling seasonal influenza virus infections, as influenza viruses have the same transmission path as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of different NPIs on the control of seasonal influenza.

METHODS

Data for 14 NPIs implemented in 33 countries and the corresponding influenza virological surveillance data were collected. The influenza suppression index was calculated as the difference between the influenza positivity rate during its period of decline from 2019 to 2020 and during the influenza epidemic seasons in the previous 9 years. A machine learning model was developed using an extreme gradient boosting tree regressor to fit the NPI and influenza suppression index data. The SHapley Additive exPlanations tool was used to characterize the NPIs that suppressed the transmission of influenza.

RESULTS

Of all NPIs tested, gathering limitations had the greatest contribution (37.60%) to suppressing influenza transmission during the 2019-2020 influenza season. The three most effective NPIs were gathering limitations, international travel restrictions, and school closures. For these three NPIs, their intensity threshold required to generate an effect were restrictions on the size of gatherings less than 1000 people, ban of travel to all regions or total border closures, and closing only some categories of schools, respectively. There was a strong positive interaction effect between mask-wearing requirements and gathering limitations, whereas merely implementing a mask-wearing requirement, and not other NPIs, diluted the effectiveness of mask-wearing requirements at suppressing influenza transmission.

CONCLUSIONS

Gathering limitations, ban of travel to all regions or total border closures, and closing some levels of schools were found to be the most effective NPIs at suppressing influenza transmission. It is recommended that the mask-wearing requirement be combined with gathering limitations and other NPIs. Our findings could facilitate the precise control of future influenza epidemics and other potential pandemics.

ANTIBACDUS-PAN: Antibacterial Utilization among Adult Patients Before and During COVID-19 Pandemic within 12-Months Period: A Tertiary Hospital Pharmacoepidemiology Study

Objective

Irrational use of antibacterials is a concern during the COVID-19 pandemic. Hospital pharmacoepidemiology studies are important for evaluating the rational use of medicines, especially antibacterials, during pandemics. Defined daily doses (DDD) and drug utilization 90% (DU90%) are established methods for the evaluation of drug utilization. We aimed to evaluate antibacterial utilization in a tertiary hospital setting at Koç University Hospital (KUH).

Materials and Methods

This cross-sectional, descriptive study was retrospectively conducted with data extracted from KUH Inpatient Electronic Order System (CP) and was carried out for a period of one year. Antibacterial utilization of adult (aged ≥ 18 years) inpatients, who were prescribed at least one type of systemic antibacterial (ATC code J01), was evaluated using the recommended parameter DDD/100 admission and compared between 6 months before COVID-19 and during COVID-19 periods. March 11, 2020, the very first COVID-19 diagnosed case in Turkey, was set as the cutoff date of the 6-month period for the selection of the compared antibacterials using the DU90% method.

Results

Finally, 3280 of 5942 and 2605 of 4942 prescriptions for pre-COVID-19 and COVID-19 periods were included, respectively. Antibacterial utilization according to DDD/100 admissions increased from 193.96 to 201.26 DDD/100 admissions after the initiation of COVID-19 pandemic. The most utilized antibacterials were piperacillin and enzyme inhibitors in pre-COVID-19 period, whereas meropenem was utilized the most during COVID-19 period. Azithromycin utilization increased by 656.24%, whereas clarithromycin utilization decreased by 52.12%. Antibacterials were utilized most in general surgery department, with an increase of 17.57%.

Conclusion

There is an increase in antibacterial utilization in KUH during COVID-19 pandemic, especially reserved antibacterials, which is a concern for antibacterial resistance.

The evolution of the human healthcare system and implications for understanding our responses to COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic has revealed an urgent need for a comprehensive, multidisciplinary understanding of how healthcare systems respond successfully to infectious pathogens-and how they fail. This study contributes a novel perspective that focuses on the selective pressures that shape healthcare systems over evolutionary time. We use a comparative approach to trace the evolution of care-giving and disease control behaviours across species and then map their integration into the contemporary human healthcare system. Self-care and pro-health environmental modification are ubiquitous across animals, while derived behaviours like care for kin, for strangers, and group-level organizational responses have evolved via different selection pressures. We then apply this framework to our behavioural responses to COVID-19 and demonstrate that three types of conflicts are occurring: (1) conflicting selection pressures on individuals, (2) evolutionary mismatches between the context in which our healthcare behaviours evolved and our globalized world of today and (3) evolutionary displacements in which older forms of care are currently dispensed through more derived forms. We discuss the significance of understanding how healthcare systems evolve and change for thinking about the role of healthcare systems in society during and after the time of COVID-19-and for us as a species as we continue to face selection from infectious diseases.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the incidence and mortality of zoonotic diseases in China

BACKGROUND

It has been reported that strict non-pharmaceutical measures can significantly reduce the incidence and mortality of respiratory and intestinal infectious diseases during the COVID-19 pandemic, but there are limited reports on the impact in terms of the rates of zoonotic diseases.

METHODS

We extracted the incidence and mortality data of eight notifiable infectious zoonotic diseases from the website of the National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China for the period of January 2015 to April 2021.

RESULTS

First, the overall incidence of zoonotic diseases decreased from 0.3714 per 100 000 in 2015-2019 to 0.2756 in 2020 (25.79% reduction, p<0.001); however, a dramatic increase in activity was seen in 2021 compared with 2020 (0.4478 per 100 000 in 2021, 62.47% increase, p<0.001). Anthrax, brucellosis, leptospirosis and hydatid disease exhibited significant upward trends in 2021. Second, analysed further by stages, the monthly incidence in the routine stage (from May to December 2020) was much higher than that in the emergency stage of the COVID-19 (from January to April 2020) (55.33% increase, p<0.001). We also found that the monthly observed incidence was significantly lower than the predicted incidence of a 10.29% reduction in the emergency stage. Third, no differences were seen in mortality between 2021 and 2020, while a significant decline was found in 2020 compared with the previous 5 years (72.70%, p<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Strict containment and feasible suppression strategies during the 2020 period of the COVID-19 pandemic had positive impacts on the overall incidence of zoonotic diseases in China. However, anthrax, brucellosis, leptospirosis and hydatid diseases might increase with the relaxation of non-pharmacological interventions in 2021.

Learning From Each Other in the Management of Natural Disaster and COVID-19 Pandemic: A Case Study in Taiwan

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, Taiwan has been one of the best performers in the world with extremely low infections and deaths. This success can be attributed to the long experiences dealing with natural disasters and communicable diseases. However, with different disastrous characteristics, the disaster management systems for communicable diseases and natural disasters are very different in terms of laws, plans, frameworks, and emergency operations. Taking the response to COVID-19 pandemic as a study subject, we found that disaster management for communicable diseases can be improved through a comparison with natural disasters, and vice versa. First, having wider and longer impacts than natural disasters, the plans and framework for communicable diseases in Taiwan focus more on national and regional scales. Local governments would need more capacity support including budgets and training to conduct investigations and quarantine during the COVID-19 pandemic. Second, for quick response, the emergency operation for communicable diseases was designed to be more flexible than that for natural disasters by giving the commander more authority to adjust to the circumstances. The commanding system requires a more objective consultation group to prevent arbitrary decisions against the COVID-19 pandemic. Finally, risk governance is important for communicable diseases as well as for natural disasters. Additional efforts should be made to enhance vulnerability assessment, disaster reduction, and risk communication for shaping responses and policies in an efficient and coordinating way.

Filtering Facepiece Respirator Supply Chain Management Framework in a Disaster Such as COVID-19

Due to the lack of vaccines and treatments, filtering facepiece respirators are a primary and effective tool to dampen the spread of COVID-19. To meet the huge and continuous demand for filtering facepiece respirators, this concept paper suggests a supply chain management framework based on the disaster management principle. This concept paper adopts an exploratory and qualitative literature review to provide managerial insights for the supply chain participants. Due to implementation delay and strategic interdependency, the supply chain management strategies need to be systematically integrated. A viable way to integrate strategies is based on the disaster management cycle: mitigation, preparation, response, and recovery phases. Our model integrates innovative and successful but overlooked supply chain management strategies. First, the production capacity should be flexible so that the production mode in emergency and normal situations can be different. Second, the concept paper and development facilities can utilize their capacities for actual production in emergencies. Third, the quality certification process should accommodate the flexible production capacities. Fourth, inventory stockpiling should be renewable. This concept paper contributes to policymakers, healthcare sector decision-makers, stakeholders throughout the FFR supply chain to cope with future crises caused by pandemics by providing a systematic approach to constructing an effective, flexible, and resilient supply chain.

Exploring the Impact of Government Interventions on COVID-19 Pandemic Spread in Kuwait

To model the trajectory of the pandemic in Kuwait from February 24, 2020 to February 28, 2021, we used two modeling procedures: Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) with structural breaks and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS), and then mapped the key breakpoints of the models to the set of government-enforced interventions. The MARS model, as opposed to the ARIMA model, provides a more precise interpretation of the intervention's effects. It demonstrates that partial and total lockdown interventions were highly effective in reducing the number of confirmed cases. When some interventions, such as enforcing regional curfews, closing workplaces, and imposing travel restrictions, were combined, their impact became significant. MARS method is recommended to be applied when exploring the impact of interventions on the spread of a disease. It does not require any prior assumptions about the statistical distribution of data, does not affect data collinearity, has simple and transparent functions, and allows for a more accurate analysis of intervention results.

Effects of Relaxed Lockdown on Pediatric ER Visits during SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic in Italy

Previously, we demonstrated an 81% reduction in pediatric Emergency Room (ER) visits in Italy during the strict lockdown due to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Since May 2020, lockdown measures were relaxed until 6 November 2020, when a strict lockdown was patchily reintroduced. Our aim was to evaluate the impact of the relaxed lockdown on pediatric ER visits in Italy. We performed a retrospective multicenter study involving 14 Italian pediatric ERs. We compared total ER visits from 24 September 2020 to 6 November 2020 with those during the corresponding timeframe in 2019. We evaluated 17 ER specific diagnoses grouped in air communicable and non-air communicable diseases. We recognized four different triage categories: white, green, yellow and red. In 2020 total ER visits were reduced by 51% compared to 2019 (16,088 vs. 32,568, respectively). The decrease in air communicable diseases was significantly higher if compared to non-air communicable diseases (-64% vs. -42%, respectively). ER visits in each triage category decreased in 2020 compared to 2019, but in percentage, white and red codes remained stable, while yellow codes slightly increased and green codes slightly decreased. Our results suggest that preventive measures drastically reduced the circulation of air communicable diseases even during the reopening of social activities but to a lesser extent with regard to the strict lockdown period (March-May 2020).

Circulation of Respiratory Viruses in Hospitalized Adults before and during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Brescia, Italy: A Retrospective Study

Different preventive public health measures were adopted globally to limit the spread of SARS-CoV-2, such as hand hygiene and the use of masks, travel restrictions, social distance actions such as the closure of schools and workplaces, case and contact tracing, quarantine and lockdown. These measures, in particular physical distancing and the use of masks, might have contributed to containing the spread of other respiratory viruses that occurs principally by contact and droplet routes. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prevalence of different respiratory viruses (influenza viruses A and B, respiratory syncytial virus, parainfluenza viruses 1, 2, 3 and 4, rhinovirus, adenovirus, metapneumovirus and human coronaviruses) after one year of the pandemic. Furthermore, another aim was to evaluate the possible impact of these non-pharmaceutical measures on the circulation of seasonal respiratory viruses. This single center study was conducted between January 2017-February 2020 (pre-pandemic period) and March 2020-May 2021 (pandemic period). All adults >18 years with respiratory symptoms and tested for respiratory pathogens were included in the study. Nucleic acid detection of all respiratory viruses was performed by multiplex real time PCR. Our results show that the test positivity for influenza A and B, metapneumovirus, parainfluenza virus, respiratory syncytial virus and human coronaviruses decreased with statistical significance during the pandemic. Contrary to this, for adenovirus the decrease was not statistically significant. Conversely, a statistically significant increase was detected for rhinovirus. Coinfections between different respiratory viruses were observed during the pre-pandemic period, while the only coinfection detected during pandemic was between SARS-CoV-2 and rhinovirus. To understand how the preventive strategies against SARS-CoV-2 might alter the transmission dynamics and epidemic patterns of respiratory viruses is fundamental to guide future preventive recommendations.

Mining of Opinions on COVID-19 Large-Scale Social Restrictions in Indonesia: Public Sentiment and Emotion Analysis on Online Media

Background

One of the successful measures to curb COVID-19 spread in large populations is the implementation of a movement restriction order. Globally, it was observed that countries implementing strict movement control were more successful in controlling the spread of the virus as compared with those with less stringent measures. Society’s adherence to the movement control order has helped expedite the process to flatten the pandemic curve as seen in countries such as China and Malaysia. At the same time, there are countries facing challenges with society’s nonconformity toward movement restriction orders due to various claims such as human rights violations as well as sociocultural and economic issues. In Indonesia, society’s adherence to its large-scale social restrictions (LSSRs) order is also a challenge to achieve. Indonesia is regarded as among the worst in Southeast Asian countries in terms of managing the spread of COVID-19. It is proven by the increased number of daily confirmed cases and the total number of deaths, which was more than 6.21% (1351/21,745) of total active cases as of May 2020.

Objective

The aim of this study was to explore public sentiments and emotions toward the LSSR and identify issues, fear, and reluctance to observe this restriction among the Indonesian public.

Methods

This study adopts a sentiment analysis method with a supervised machine learning approach on COVID-19-related posts on selected media platforms (Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, and YouTube). The analysis was also performed on COVID-19-related news contained in more than 500 online news platforms recognized by the Indonesian Press Council. Social media posts and news originating from Indonesian online media between March 31 and May 31, 2020, were analyzed. Emotion analysis on Twitter platform was also performed to identify collective public emotions toward the LSSR.

Results

The study found that positive sentiment surpasses other sentiment categories by 51.84% (n=1,002,947) of the total data (N=1,934,596) collected via the search engine. Negative sentiment was recorded at 35.51% (686,892/1,934,596) and neutral sentiment at 12.65% (244,757/1,934,596). The analysis of Twitter posts also showed that the majority of public have the emotion of “trust” toward the LSSR.

Conclusions

Public sentiment toward the LSSR appeared to be positive despite doubts on government consistency in executing the LSSR. The emotion analysis also concluded that the majority of people believe in LSSR as the best method to break the chain of COVID-19 transmission. Overall, Indonesians showed trust and expressed hope toward the government’s ability to manage this current global health crisis and win against COVID-19.

Trends in Viral Respiratory Infections During COVID-19 Pandemic, South Korea

We compared weekly positivity rates of 8 respiratory viruses in South Korea during 2010-2019 and 2020. The overall mean positivity rate for these viruses decreased from 54.7% in 2010-2019 to 39.1% in 2020. Pandemic control measures might have reduced the incidence of many, but not all, viral respiratory infections.

Non-pharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic: A review

Infectious diseases and human behavior are intertwined. On one side, our movements and interactions are the engines of transmission. On the other, the unfolding of viruses might induce changes to our daily activities. While intuitive, our understanding of such feedback loop is still limited. Before COVID-19 the literature on the subject was mainly theoretical and largely missed validation. The main issue was the lack of empirical data capturing behavioral change induced by diseases. Things have dramatically changed in 2020. Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been the key weapon against the SARS-CoV-2 virus and affected virtually any societal process. Travel bans, events cancellation, social distancing, curfews, and lockdowns have become unfortunately very familiar. The scale of the emergency, the ease of survey as well as crowdsourcing deployment guaranteed by the latest technology, several Data for Good programs developed by tech giants, major mobile phone providers, and other companies have allowed unprecedented access to data describing behavioral changes induced by the pandemic. Here, I review some of the vast literature written on the subject of NPIs during the COVID-19 pandemic. In doing so, I analyze 348 articles written by more than 2518 authors in the first 12 months of the emergency. While the large majority of the sample was obtained by querying PubMed, it includes also a hand-curated list. Considering the focus, and methodology I have classified the sample into seven main categories: epidemic models, surveys, comments/perspectives, papers aiming to quantify the effects of NPIs, reviews, articles using data proxies to measure NPIs, and publicly available datasets describing NPIs. I summarize the methodology, data used, findings of the articles in each category and provide an outlook highlighting future challenges as well as opportunities.

Efficacy of surgical masks or cloth masks in the prevention of viral transmission: Systematic review, meta-analysis, and proposal for future trial

OBJECTIVE

Recommendations for widespread use of face mask, including suggested type, should reflect the current published evidence and concurrently be studied. This review evaluates the preclinical and clinical evidence on use of cloth and surgical face masks in SARS-CoV-2 transmission and proposes a trial to gather further evidence.

METHODS

PubMed, EMbase, and the Cochrane Library were searched. Studies of SARS-CoV-2 and face masks and randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of n ≥ 50 for other respiratory illnesses were included.

RESULTS

Fourteen studies were included in this study. One preclinical and 1 observational cohort clinical study found significant benefit of masks in limiting SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Eleven RCTs in a meta-analysis studying other respiratory illnesses found no significant benefit of masks (±hand hygiene) for influenza-like-illness symptoms nor laboratory confirmed viruses. One RCT found a significant benefit of surgical masks compared with cloth masks.

CONCLUSION

There is limited available preclinical and clinical evidence for face mask benefit in SARS-CoV-2. RCT evidence for other respiratory viral illnesses shows no significant benefit of masks in limiting transmission but is of poor quality and not SARS-CoV-2 specific. There is an urgent need for evidence from randomized controlled trials to investigate the efficacy of surgical and cloth masks on transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and user reported outcomes such as comfort and compliance.

The impact of the lockdown and the re-opening of schools and day cares on the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 and other respiratory infections in children - A nationwide register study in Finland

BACKGROUND

Nationwide restrictions started in Finland in March to prevent the spread of COVID-19, leading to school and day care closures. The aim of this study is to describe the effect of closures and re-openings on the respiratory pathogen epidemiology.

METHODS

Laboratory-confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2; respiratory syncytial virus (RSV); influenza (A & B); parainfluenza-, adeno-, and rhinoviruses; Mycoplasma pneumoniae; and Streptococcus pneumoniae in children were collected from the National Infectious Disease Register over the period of 2017-2020. Weekly incidences (weeks 1 to 35) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated per 100 000 children in 2020 and compared by incidence rate ratios (IRRs) to corresponding periods in 2017-2019.

FINDINGS

The lockdown had immediate impact on the incidences of respiratory pathogens except SARS-CoV-2. Week after the lockdown began IRR was 0•3 (CI 0•3-0•4) and next week the IRR was 0•1 (0•1-0•2). The incidence of SARS-CoV-2 started to decline eight weeks after the lockdown began. The highest recorded weekly incidence of SARS-CoV-2 was 7•2/100 000 children. The effect of the lockdown lasted until late summer. Rhinovirus and SARS-CoV-2 began to increase before the schools or day cares opened in August. The re-opening of schools seemed to have no impact on the incidence of any pathogen.

INTERPRETATION

Our results suggest that general social distancing, including school and day care closures, played a crucial role in reducing infections, and the effect lasted for several weeks. The re-opening of schools and day care centres seems to have had no immediate impact on the incidences of any respiratory pathogens.

FUNDING

This study had no funding source.

Increased antimicrobial resistance during the COVID-19 pandemic

In addition to SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) infection itself, an increase in the incidence of antimicrobial resistance poses collateral damage to the current status of the COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) pandemic. There has been a rapid increase in multidrug-resistant organisms (MDROs), including extended-spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL)-producing Klebsiella pneumoniae, carbapenem-resistant New Delhi metallo-β-lactamase (NDM)-producing Enterobacterales, Acinetobacter baumannii, methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), pan-echinocandin-resistant Candida glabrata and multi-triazole-resistant Aspergillus fumigatus. The cause is multifactorial and is particularly related to high rates of antimicrobial agent utilisation in COVID-19 patients with a relatively low rate of co- or secondary infection. Appropriate prescription and optimised use of antimicrobials according to the principles of antimicrobial stewardship as well as quality diagnosis and aggressive infection control measures may help prevent the occurrence of MDROs during this pandemic.

Modelling the impact of the mandatory use of face coverings on public transport and in retail outlets in the UK on COVID-19-related infections, hospital admissions and mortality

INTRODUCTION

The rapid spread of the pandemic caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2/)(COVID-19) virus resulted in governments around the world instigating a range of measures, including mandating the wearing of face coverings on public transport/in retail outlets.

METHODS

We developed a sequential assessment of the risk reduction provided by face coverings using a step-by-step approach. The UK Office of National Statistics (ONS) Population Survey data were utilised to determine the baseline total number of community-derived infections. These were linked to reported hospital admissions/hospital deaths to create case admission risk ratio and admission-related fatality rate. We evaluated published evidence to establish an infection risk reduction for face coverings. We calculated an Infection Risk Score (IRS) for a number of common activities and related it to the effectiveness of reducing infection and its consequences, with a face covering, and evaluated their effect when applied to different infection rates over 3 months from July 24, 2020, when face coverings were made compulsory in England on public transport/retail outlets.

RESULTS

We show that only 7.3% of all community-based infection risk is associated with public transport/retail outlets. In the week of July 24, The reported weekly community infection rate was 29 400 new cases at the start (July 24). The rate of growth in hospital admissions and deaths for England was around -15%/week, suggesting the infection rate, R, in the most vulnerable populations was just above 0.8. In this situation, average infections over the evaluated 13 week follow-up period, would be 9517/week with face covering of 40% effectiveness, thus, reducing average infections by 844/week, hospital admissions by 8/week and deaths by 0.6/week; a fall of 9% over the period total. If, however, the R-value rises to 1.0, then, average community infections would stay at 29 400/week and mandatory face coverings could reduce average weekly infections by 3930, hospital admissions by 36 and deaths by 2.9/week; a 13% reduction. If the R-value rose and stayed at 1.2, then, expected average community-derived hospital admissions would be 975/week and 40% effective face coverings would reduce this by 167/week and reduce possible expected hospital deaths from 80/week to 66/week. These reductions should be seen in the context that there was an average of 102 000/week all-cause hospital emergency admissions in England in June and 8900 total reported deaths in the week ending August 7, 2020.

CONCLUSION

We have illustrated that the policy on mandatory use of face coverings in retail outlets/on public transport may have been very well followed, but may be of limited value in reducing hospital admissions and deaths, at least at the time that it was introduced, unless infections begin to rise faster than currently seen. The impact appears small compared with all other sources of risk, thereby raising questions regarding the effectiveness of the policy.

Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions targeted at COVID-19 pandemic on influenza burden - a systematic review

OBJECTIVES

To better understand the impact of comprehensive COVID-19 targeted non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on influenza burden worldwide.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic literature search in selected databases (PubMed, WHO COVID-19), preprint servers (medRxiv, bioRxiv) and websites of European Public Health institutes. Documents that compared influenza estimates in the 2019/2020 season with previous seasons were included. Information synthesis was qualitative due to a high heterogeneity in the number and periods of comparative seasons, outcome measures and statistical methods.

RESULTS

We included 23 records reporting from 15 countries/regions as well as 8 reports from European Public Health agencies. Estimates in the 2019/2020 season based on influenza virus tests (4 out of 7 countries/regions), defined influenza cases (8 out of 9), influenza positivity rate (7 out of 8), and severe complications (1 out of 2) were lower than in former seasons. Results from syndromic indicators, such as influenza-like-illness (ILI), were less clear or even raised (4 out of 7) after the influenza season indicating a misclassification with COVID-19 cases.

CONCLUSIONS

Evidence synthesis suggests that NPIs targeted at SARS-CoV-2-transmission reduce influenza burden as well. Low threshold NPIs need to be more strongly emphasized in influenza prevention strategies.

Epidemiología del autocuidado más allá de lo individual y lo sanitario

En medio de la crisis pandémica a nivel global, la preocupación internacional ha girado en torno a la adopción de medidas de control y prevención orientadas a la reducción de la velocidad de propagación del virus en espera de que se disponga de una medida sanitaria radical como la vacuna. El esfuerzo gubernamental y social ha tenido un gran impacto en diversos sectores de la sociedad y las consecuencias han superado el ámbito sanitario. En este ensayo se discute su alcance en el sentido de la apropiación de las medidas de control del riesgo y se propone el método epidemiológico como una alternativa que va más allá de la cuantificación de los riesgos y la atribución de responsabilidades. Por último, se plantea la necesidad de fomentar procesos de socialización de la información que ayuden a la comprensión de las consecuencias de los actos individuales y favorezcan la superación de la expectativa de control pandémico únicamente basada en el uso de medidas coercitivas.

Big Data, Decision Models, and Public Health

Unlike most daily decisions, medical decision making often has substantial consequences and trade-offs. Recently, big data analytics techniques such as statistical analysis, data mining, machine learning and deep learning can be applied to construct innovative decision models. With complex decision making, it can be difficult to comprehend and compare the benefits and risks of all available options to make a decision. For these reasons, this Special Issue focuses on the use of big data analytics and forms of public health decision making based on the decision model, spanning from theory to practice. A total of 64 submissions were carefully blind peer reviewed by at least two referees and, finally, 23 papers were selected for this Special Issue.