Long-Term Drought Trends in Ethiopia with Implications for Dryland Agriculture

Meteorological Drought Variability and Its Impact on Wheat Yields across South Africa

Drought is one of the natural hazards that have negatively affected the agricultural sector worldwide. The aims of this study were to track drought characteristics (duration (DD), severity (DS), and frequency (DF)) in South Africa between 2002 and 2021 and to evaluate its impact on wheat production. Climate data were collected from the South African Weather Service (SAWS) along with wheat yield data from the Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (2002-2021). The standard precipitation index (SPI) was calculated on 3-, 6-, 9-, and 12-month time scales, and the trend was then tracked using the Mann-Kendall (MK) test. To signify the climatic effects on crop yield, the standardized yield residual series (SYRS) was computed along with the crop-drought resilience factor (CR) on a provincial scale (2002-2021). The output of the SPI analysis for 32 stations covering all of South Africa indicates a drought tendency across the country. On a regional scale, western coastal provinces (WES-C and NR-C) have been more vulnerable to meteorological droughts over the past 20 years. Positive correlation results between SYRS and wheat yield indicate that the WES-C province was highly influenced by drought during all stages of wheat growth (Apr-Nov). Historical drought spells in 2003, 2009, and 2010 with low CR = 0.64 caused the province to be highly impacted by the negative impacts of droughts on yield loss. Overall, drought events have historically impacted the western part of the country and dominated in the coastal area. Thus, mitigation plans should be commenced, and priority should be given to this region. These findings can assist policymakers in budgeting for irrigation demand in rainfed agricultural regions.

Application of Agent-Based Modeling in Agricultural Productivity in Rural Area of Bahir Dar, Ethiopia

Effective weather forecast information helps smallholder farmers improve their adaptation to climate uncertainties and crop productivity. The main objective of this study was to assess the impact of weather forecast adoption on crop productivity. We coupled agent-based and crop productivity models to study the impact of farmers’ management decisions on maize productivity under different rainfall scenarios in Ethiopia. A household survey was conducted with 100 households from 5 villages and was used to validate the crop model. The agent-based model (ABM) analyzed the farmers’ behaviors in crop management under different dry, wet, and normal rainfall conditions. ABM results and crop data from the survey were then used as input data sources for the crop model. Our results show that farming decisions based on weather forecast information improved yield productivity from 17% to 30% under dry and wet seasons, respectively. The impact of adoption rates due to farmers’ intervillage interactions, connections, radio, agriculture extension services, and forecast accuracy brought additional crop yields into the Kebele compared to non-forecast users. Our findings help local policy makers to understand the impact of the forecast information. Results of this study can be used to develop agricultural programs where rainfed agriculture is common.

Effects of Climate Variability on Livestock productivity and Pastoralists Perception: The Case of Drought Resilience in Southeastern Ethiopia

This study examines the perception of the pastoral community on climate change and performance, resilience and adaptive capacity of livestock under climatic stress in southeastern Ethiopia. The study used a mixed research approach whereby quantitative and qualitative data were gathered from multiple sources to address the impacts of climate variability on livestock production and livelihood of pastoral-agro-pastoral communities of Guji zone. Data about pastoralist perception on climate change were collected from 198 randomly selected households using a semi-structured questionnaire. Furthermore, climate data were obtained from the national meteorological agency, and climatic water balance was assessed. The household survey result indicated increasing patterns of temperature (82.8%)and drought intensity (84.8%). Majority of respondents perceived decreasing trends of rainfall and feed availability. Similarly, the trend analysis of rainfall showed declining trends of annual (-4.7 mm/year), autumn (-4.5 mm) and winter (-0.54 mm). Rainfall Anomaly Index identifies 13 drought years over the past 32 years, of which 53.85% occurred between 2007- 2017. Significantly higher (p<0.01) cattle and small ruminants than camel per household died during the disastrous drought occurred in 2008/9 and 2015/16. Nonetheless, the result indicated significantly higher (p<0.01) amounts of milk yield (3.32 litre/day) of dairying camel during dry periods than cattle and small ruminants. Camel and goats are perceived as drought-resistant livestock species and cattle keepers shifting to have more camel and goat in response to prevailing drought in the study area. Poor attention is given to identify climate-smart/resilient livestock species and strains. Therefore, extensive investigations are required to select and identify purpose-specific camel and goat strains for drought-prone areas.

Drought Analysis Using Standardized Evapotranspiration and Aridity Index at Bilate Watershed: Sub-Basins of Ethiopian Rift Valley

In Ethiopia, more prevalent drought happenings have been documented in the past century. The problem has gradually expanded from the north to the rest parts with deepened intensity. The study aimed to examine the magnitudes of spatiotemporal patterns of drought at the Bilate watershed from 1981 to 2016. Monthly rainfall and temperature data were used for the analysis. The Standardized Evapotranspiration Indexes (SPEI) at SPEI-03 and SPEI-12 timescales were applied to evaluate the drought patterns. Among different drought indices, the SPEI is the most valuable and preferred Index for drought studies. The SPEI method considers the role of temperature than other indices to compare drought in time and space. The Mann–Kendall test was used for trend analysis. Accordingly, the result revealed that 1988–2016 were years of continuous drought events in both timescales with (SPEI = −2.5 to −1.2) drought value. Drought severity and frequency were highly detected at Wulberag areas (SPEI: −2.5). Durame, Angacha, and Alaba experienced increasing drought trends (Z = −1.96−1.6) and Welayita Sodo is Z = −0.07−0.03. Bilate-Tena and Hossana area of the watershed were less affected by drought than other areas. Spatially, the drought occurrences were observed in all areas of the watershed with varying magnitude. In the SPEI-12 timescale, more frequent drought occurrences were observed than SPEI-03. It was found that severe drought was observed in 1987, 1993/94, 2000–2005, and 2010. Moreover, the watershed experienced an Aridity Index (AI) of 0.43 (43%) and was subjected to potential high evapotranspiration (PET). The highest PET was observed at Bilate-Tena, Angacha, Hosanna, Wulberag, Alaba, Welayita Sodo, and Durame (151.6, 119.6, 119.3, 140.8, 142, 127.5, and 125.7 mm/year, respectively. Hence, the finding of this study could initiate a further inquiry on drought risk management, early warning responses, and local scale planning.

Effective Use of Water in Crop Plants in Dryland Agriculture: Implications of Reactive Oxygen Species and Antioxidative System

Under dryland conditions, annual and perennial food crops are exposed to dry spells, severely affecting crop productivity by limiting available soil moisture at critical and sensitive growth stages. Climate variability continues to be the primary cause of uncertainty, often making timing rather than quantity of precipitation the foremost concern. Therefore, mitigation and management of stress experienced by plants due to limited soil moisture are crucial for sustaining crop productivity under current and future harsher environments. Hence, the information generated so far through multiple investigations on mechanisms inducing drought tolerance in plants needs to be translated into tools and techniques for stress management. Scope to accomplish this exists in the inherent capacity of plants to manage stress at the cellular level through various mechanisms. One of the most extensively studied but not conclusive physiological phenomena is the balance between reactive oxygen species (ROS) production and scavenging them through an antioxidative system (AOS), which determines a wide range of damage to the cell, organ, and the plant. In this context, this review aims to examine the possible roles of the ROS-AOS balance in enhancing the effective use of water (EUW) by crops under water-limited dryland conditions. We refer to EUW as biomass produced by plants with available water under soil moisture stress rather than per unit of water (WUE). We hypothesize that EUW can be enhanced by an appropriate balance between water-saving and growth promotion at the whole-plant level during stress and post-stress recovery periods. The ROS-AOS interactions play a crucial role in water-saving mechanisms and biomass accumulation, resulting from growth processes that include cell division, cell expansion, photosynthesis, and translocation of assimilates. Hence, appropriate strategies for manipulating these processes through genetic improvement and/or application of exogenous compounds can provide practical solutions for improving EUW through the optimized ROS-AOS balance under water-limited dryland conditions. This review deals with the role of ROS-AOS in two major EUW determining processes, namely water use and plant growth. It describes implications of the ROS level or content, ROS-producing, and ROS-scavenging enzymes based on plant water status, which ultimately affects photosynthetic efficiency and growth of plants.

Vulnerability assessment of agricultural production systems to drought stresses using robustness measures

Intensification of droughts in agricultural areas threaten global food security. The impacts of drought stresses vary widely across a region, not only due to climate variability but also due to heterogeneous soil and groundwater buffering capacities which protect against droughts. An innovative drought vulnerability index was developed by reconciling the negative effects of drought stresses against the robustness offered by hydrologic buffers. Indicators for climate stresses, soil and groundwater buffering capacities were defined using physical principles and integrated using a multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) framework. The framework was applied to delineate drought vulnerability of agricultural production systems and evaluate current cropping choices across the High Plains region of the US that is underlain by the Ogallala Aquifer. Current crop growth choices appeared to be compatible with the intrinsic drought vulnerabilities with cotton and sorghum grown in higher vulnerability areas and corn and soybean produced in areas with lower vulnerability. Nearly 50% of the aquifer region fell in the transition zone exhibiting medium to high vulnerabilities warranting the need for better water management to adapt to a changing climate.

Challenges and Prospects of Advancing Groundwater Research in Ethiopian Aquifers: A Review

Groundwater is a strategic resource in all climatic regions of Ethiopia, contributing about 80% of the domestic supply of urban and rural populations. However, little research has been available compared with extensive geographical coverage and increasing population growth rates. Hence, the present study aimed to review published groundwater research of Ethiopian aquifers to realize potential research challenges and suggest future research directions. We focused on groundwater potential, recharge process, and qualities. The total potential groundwater of the country ranges from 2.5 to 47 billion cubic meters. The study depicted that the mean annual recharge estimate varies from 24.9 mm to 457 mm at catchments scales. However, the overall country was about 39.1 mm. The study found a need for a detailed investigation of different factors susceptible to groundwater pollution, as some of the evaluations indicated exceeding acceptable standards. This study observed that the main challenge was the lack of data and convergence research trends. Henceforth, future research in different climate regions should focus on multifaceted technical and stakeholder settings. This study gives the insight to integrate palatable research findings with the national policy and decision-making process to enhance the sustainability of groundwater resources significantly.

The Drought Variability Based on Continuous Days without Available Precipitation in Guizhou Province, Southwest China

Detecting the characteristics and variability of droughts is of crucial importance. In this study, Guizhou Province in China is selected as the target area, and the dataset there covering daily precipitation and drought records from 1960 to 2016 is adopted. The spatial and temporal differences in yearly and seasonal Dnp (the drought indicator of continuous days without available precipitation) values and longest Dnp as well as their trends are examined. Then the Dnp values and droughts are classified into different categories, and the relationships between Dnp and droughts are revealed. There was a steep increasing trend in yearly Dnp with a rate of 6 d/10a, and the Mann–Kendall (MK) value was estimated to be 5.05 in the past 56 years. The seasonal Dnp values showed significant increasing trends. Yearly and seasonal Dnp varied significantly in the space domain. There were slight increases in yearly and four seasonal longest Dnp values in the time domain. Although the increases in the spring and summer were not significant, heavy droughts tended to occur at this time. As to the Dnp values corresponding to different levels of droughts, there was only a decrease in mild drought, while there were significant increases in mild, moderate, and heavy droughts. The mild droughts increased significantly in summer, and the moderate droughts increased significantly in spring. Different levels of Dnp also varied in the spatial domain. The elevation effect is not obvious in Guizhou province.

An Integrated GIS-Hydro Modeling Methodology for Surface Runoff Exploitation via Small-Scale Reservoirs

Efficient and sustainable exploitation of water resources requires the adoption of innovative and contemporary management techniques, a need that becomes even more demanding due to climate change and increasing pressures coming from anthropogenic activities. An important outcome of this reality is the qualitative and quantitative degradation of groundwater, which clearly indicates the need to exploit surface runoff. This study presents an integrated Geographic Information System (GIS)-based methodological framework for revealing and selecting suitable locations to build small-scale reservoirs and exploit surface runoff. In this framework, the SWAT model was used to quantify surface runoff, followed by the simulation of reservoir scenarios through reservoir simulation software. Andros Island (located in Cyclades Prefecture), Greece was selected as the study area. The obtained results indicated the most suitable location for creating a reservoir for maximizing exploitation of surface runoff, based on the specific water demands of the nearby areas and the existing meteorological, hydrological, and geological background potential. Thus, two selected dam locations are analyzed by using the proposed framework. The findings showed that the first dam site is inappropriate for creating a reservoir, as it cannot meet the demand for large water extraction volumes. In addition, the outcomes confirmed the efficiency of the proposed methodology in optimum selection of locations to construct small-scale water exploitation works. This research presents a contemporary methodological framework that highlights the capability of GIS, SWAT modeling, and reservoir simulation coupling in detecting optimal locations for constructing small reservoirs.

Health Status and Health Care Needs of Drought-Related Migrants in the Horn of Africa-A Qualitative Investigation

Somalia, Kenya and Ethiopia, situated in the Horn of Africa, are highly vulnerable to climate change, which manifests itself through increasing temperatures, erratic rains and prolonged droughts. Millions of people have to flee from droughts or floods either as cross-border refugees or as internally displaced persons (IDPs). The aim of this study was to identify knowledge status and gaps regarding public health consequences of large-scale displacement in these countries. After a scoping review, we conducted qualitative in-depth interviews during 2018 with 39 stakeholders from different disciplines and agencies in these three countries. A validation workshop was held with a selection of 13 interviewees and four project partners. Malnutrition and a lack of vaccination of displaced people are well-known challenges, while mental health problems and gender-based violence (GBV) are less visible to stakeholders. In particular, the needs of IDPs are not well understood. The treatment of mental health and GBV is insufficient, and IDPs have inadequate access to essential health services in refugee camps. Needs assessment and program evaluations with a patients’ perspective are either lacking or inadequate in most situations. The Horn of Africa is facing chronic food insecurity, poor population health and mass displacement. IDPs are an underserved group, and mental health services are lacking. A development approach is necessary that moves beyond emergency responses to the building of long-term resilience, the provision of livelihood support and protection to reduce displacement by droughts.