Risk assessment of aflatoxin in Iowa corn post-harvest using an event tree analysis: A case study

Mycotoxins are secondary metabolites produced by fungi found in corn and are anticipated to increase globally due to enhanced weather extremes and climate change. Aflatoxin (AFL) is of concern due to its harmful effects on human and animal health. AFL can move through complex grain supply chains in the United States, including multiple stakeholders from farms, grain elevators, grain and ethanol processors, and feed mills, before reaching end users, putting numerous entities at risk. Since corn is an essential food and feed product, risk management of AFL must be considered. This case study aimed to (1) calculate the probabilities of pivotal events with AFL in corn at Food Safety Modernization Act-regulated entities using an event tree analysis (ETA) and (2) propose recommendations based on factors identified through the ETA for AFL risk management. The ETA was based on historical AFL prevalence data in Iowa above a 20-part per billion (ppb) threshold (2.30%). Results showed four single-point failures in feed safety systems, where countermeasures did not function as designed. Failure is defined as the type 2 error of corn being infected with AFL <20 ppb, when it is >20 ppb, and the overall system fails to detect this with contaminated corn reaching end users. The success rate is defined as detecting the corn samples correctly >20 ppb. The average success rate was 50.14%, and the failure rate was 49.86%. It was concluded that risk-informed decisions are a critical component of effective AFL monitoring in corn, with timely intervention strategies needed to minimize the overall effects on end users.

An integrated model for pre- and post-harvest aflatoxin contamination in maize

Aflatoxin contamination caused by colonization of maize by Aspergillus flavus continues to pose a major human and livestock health hazard in the food chain. Increasing attention has been focused on the development of models to predict risk and to identify effective intervention strategies. Most risk prediction models have focused on elucidating weather and site variables on the pre-harvest dynamics of A. flavus growth and aflatoxin production. However fungal growth and toxin accumulation continue to occur after harvest, especially in countries where storage conditions are limited by logistical and cost constraints. In this paper, building on previous work, we introduce and test an integrated meteorology-driven epidemiological model that covers the entire supply chain from planting to delivery. We parameterise the model using approximate Bayesian computation with monthly time-series data over six years for contamination levels of aflatoxin in daily shipments received from up to three sourcing regions at a high-volume maize processing plant in South Central India. The time series for aflatoxin levels from the parameterised model successfully replicated the overall profile, scale and variance of the historical aflatoxin datasets used for fitting and validation. We use the model to illustrate the dynamics of A. flavus growth and aflatoxin production during the pre- and post-harvest phases in different sourcing regions, in short-term predictions to inform decision making about sourcing supplies and to compare intervention strategies to reduce the risks of aflatoxin contamination.

Quantitative risk assessment of the presence of fumonisin in corn produced in different regions of Brazil: Influence of climatic conditions

In this study, the probability of occurrence of fumonisins in corn in the states of greatest production in Brazil was determined. The data were analyzed through quantitative risk analysis using the Monte Carlo simulation. The results indicated that there is a strong correlation between fumonisins contamination levels and the geographical region due to the influence of climatic characteristics, with temperature having the main influence. The Southern states presented higher risks of occurrence and concentration levels of fumonisins in corn due to the temperate climate with lower average temperature and higher relative humidity and precipitation indices. Cultivation in the best season indicates a significant reduction in the production of fumonisins when this period was evaluated, with average concentration levels up to 42% lower. The generated data are important for regulatory agencies and the agricultural sector, which needs to be aware that the chance of success in grain production depends on efficient planning of the growing season, mainly concerning the climatic conditions to which it is subject to minimize the risks.

May phytophenolics alleviate aflatoxins-induced health challenges? A holistic insight on current landscape and future prospects

The future GCC-connected environmental risk factors expedited the progression of nCDs. Indeed, the emergence of AFs is becoming a global food security concern. AFs are lethal carcinogenic mycotoxins, causing damage to the liver, kidney, and gastrointestinal organs. Long-term exposure to AFs leads to liver cancer. Almost a variety of food commodities, crops, spices, herbaceous materials, nuts, and processed foods can be contaminated with AFs. In this regard, the primary sections of this review aim to cover influencing factors in the occurrence of AFs, the role of AFs in progression of nCDs, links between GCC/nCDs and exposure to AFs, frequency of AFs-based academic investigations, and world distribution of AFs. Next, the current trends in the application of PPs to alleviate AFs toxicity are discussed. Nearly, more than 20,000 published records indexed in scientific databases have been screened to find recent trends on AFs and application of PPs in AFs therapy. Accordingly, shifts in world climate, improper infrastructures for production/storage of food commodities, inconsistency of global polices on AFs permissible concentration in food/feed, and lack of the public awareness are accounting for a considerable proportion of AFs damages. AFs exhibited their toxic effects by triggering the progression of inflammation and oxidative/nitrosative stress, in turn, leading to the onset of nCDs. PPs could decrease AFs-associated oxidative stress, genotoxic, mutagenic, and carcinogenic effects by improving cellular antioxidant balance, regulation of signaling pathways, alleviating inflammatory responses, and modification of gene expression profile in a dose/time-reliant fashion. The administration of PPs alone displayed lower biological properties compared to co-treatment of these metabolites with AFs. This issue might highlight the therapeutic application of PPs than their preventative content. Flavonoids such as quercetin and oxidized tea phenolics, curcumin and resveratrol were the most studied anti-AFs PPs. Our literature review clearly disclosed that considering PPs in antioxidant therapies to alleviate complications of AFs requires improvement in their bioavailability, pharmacokinetics, tissue clearance, and off-target mode of action. Due to the emergencies in the elimination of AFs in food/feedstuffs, further large-scale clinical assessment of PPs to decrease the consequences of AFs is highly required.

Decision support system for integrated management of mycotoxins in feed and food supply chains

Mycotoxins present a global food safety threat of our feed and food. Mycotoxins are toxic metabolites of certain fungi in agricultural products that are harmful to animal and human health. The presence of mycotoxins in these products depends on a variety of management and environmental factors in the field, during storage and/or processing of feed and food commodities. To date, information on mycotoxin management is available, but is not easy to access by supply chain actors. This study aimed to design, build and test a Decision Support System (DSS) that can help decision making on mycotoxin management by various actors along the feed and food supply chains. As part of this, available knowledge and data on mycotoxin prevention and control were collected and synthesised into easy to understand guidelines and tools for various groups of end-users. The DSS consists of four different modules: (a) static information module and (b) scenario analysis module, (c) dynamic module for forecasting mycotoxins, and (d) dynamic module for real-time monitoring of moulds/mycotoxins in grain silos. Intended end-users are all end-user groups for modules (a) and (b); growers and collectors for module (c) and; post-harvest storage managers for module (d). The DSS is user-friendly and accessible through PCs, tablets and smartphones (see https://mytoolbox-platform.com/ ). In various phases of the DSS development, the tool has been demonstrated to groups of end-users, and their suggestions have been taken into account, whenever possible. Also, a near final version has been tested with individual farmers on the easiness to use the system. In this way we aimed to maximise the DSS uptake by actors along the chain. Ultimately, this DSS will improve decision making on mycotoxin management; it will assist in reducing mycotoxin contamination in the key crops of Europe, thereby reducing economic losses and improving animal and human health.

The potential for aflatoxin predictive risk modelling in sub-Saharan Africa: a review

This review presents the current state of aflatoxin risk prediction models and their potential for value actors throughout the food chain in sub-Saharan Africa, with a specific focus on improving smallholder farmer management practices. Several empirical and mechanistic models have been developed either in academic research or by private sector aggregators and processors in high-income countries including Australia, the USA, and Southern Europe, but these models have been only minimally applied in sub-Saharan Africa, where there is significant potential and increasing need due to climate variability. Predictions can be made based on historic occurrence data using either a mechanistic microbiological framework for aflatoxin accumulation or an empirical model based on statistical correlations with climate conditions and local agronomic factors. Model results can then be distributed to smallholders through private, public, or mobile extension services, used by policymakers for strategy or policy, or utilised by private sector institutions for management decisions. Specific agricultural advice can be given during the three most critical points in the phenological cycle: preseason insight including sowing timing and crop varieties, preharvest advice about management and harvest timing, and postharvest optimal practices including storage, drying, and market information. Model development for sub-Saharan Africa is limited by a dearth of georeferenced aflatoxin occurrence data and real-time high resolution climate data; the wide diversity of farm typologies each with significant information and technology gaps; a prevalence of informal market structures and lack of economic incentives systems; and general lack of awareness around aflatoxins and best management practices to mitigate risk. Given advancements towards solving these challenges, predictive aflatoxin models can be integrated into decision support platforms to focus on optimisation of value for smallholders by minimising yield and nutritional losses, which can propagate value throughout the production and postharvest phases.

Embryonic exposure to low concentrations of aflatoxin B1 triggers global transcriptomic changes, defective yolk lipid mobilization, abnormal gastrointestinal tract development and inflammation in zebrafish

Aflatoxin B1-contaminated feeds and foods induce various health problems in domesticated animals and humans, including tumor development and hepatotoxicity. Aflatoxin B1 also has embryotoxic effects in different livestock species and humans. However, it is difficult to distinguish between the indirect, maternally-mediated toxic effects and the direct embryotoxicity of aflatoxin B1 in mammals. In the present study, we investigated the aflatoxin B1-induced direct embryotoxic effects in a zebrafish embryo model system combining toxicological, transcriptomic, immunological, and biochemical approaches. Embryonic exposure to aflatoxin B1 induced significant changes at the transcriptome level resulting in elevated expression of inflammatory gene network and repression of lipid metabolism and gastrointestinal tract development-related gene sets. According to the gene expression changes, massive neutrophil granulocyte influx, elevated nitric oxide production, and yolk lipid accumulation were observed in the abdominal region of aflatoxin B1-exposed larvae. In parallel, aflatoxin B1-induced defective gastrointestinal tract development and reduced L-arginine level were found in our model system. Our results revealed the complex direct embryotoxic effects of aflatoxin B1, including inhibited lipid utilization, defective intestinal development, and inflammation.

Management strategies for aflatoxin risk mitigation in maize, dairy feeds and milk value chains—case study Kenya

Widespread aflatoxin contamination of a great number of food and feed crops has important implications on global trade and health. Frequent occurrence of aflatoxin in maize and milk poses serious health risks to consumers because these commodities are staple foods in many African countries. This situation calls for development and implementation of rigorous aflatoxin control measures that encompass all value chains, focusing on farms where food and feed-based commodities prone to aflatoxin contamination are cultivated. Good agricultural practices (GAP) have proven to be an effective technology in mitigation and management of the aflatoxin risk under farm conditions. The prevailing global climate change is shown to increase aflatoxin risk in tropical and subtropical regions. Thus, there is an urgent need to devise and apply novel methods to complement GAP and mitigate aflatoxin contamination in the feed, maize and milk value chains. Also, creation of awareness on aflatoxin management through training of farmers and other stakeholders and enforcement of regular surveillance of aflatoxin in food and feed chains are recommended strategies. This literature review addresses the current situation of aflatoxin occurrence in maize, dairy feeds and milk produced and traded in Kenya and current technologies applied to aflatoxin management at the farm level. Finally, a case study in Kenya on successful application of GAP for mitigation of aflatoxin risk at small-scale farms will be reviewed.

Predicted Aflatoxin B1 Increase in Europe Due to Climate Change: Actions and Reactions at Global Level

Climate change (CC) is predicted to increase the risk of aflatoxin (AF) contamination in maize, as highlighted by a project supported by EFSA in 2009. We performed a comprehensive literature search using the Scopus search engine to extract peer-reviewed studies citing this study. A total of 224 papers were identified after step I filtering (187 + 37), while step II filtering identified 25 of these papers for quantitative analysis. The unselected papers (199) were categorized as "actions" because they provided a sounding board for the expected impact of CC on AFB1 contamination, without adding new data on the topic. The remaining papers were considered as "reactions" of the scientific community because they went a step further in their data and ideas. Interesting statements taken from the "reactions" could be summarized with the following keywords: Chain and multi-actor approach, intersectoral and multidisciplinary, resilience, human and animal health, and global vision. In addition, fields meriting increased research efforts were summarized as the improvement of predictive modeling; extension to different crops and geographic areas; and the impact of CC on fungi and mycotoxin co-occurrence, both in crops and their value chains, up to consumers.

Brazilian Coffee Production and the Future Microbiome and Mycotoxin Profile Considering the Climate Change Scenario

Brazil holds a series of favorable climatic conditions for agricultural production including the hours and intensity of sunlight, the availability of agricultural land and water resources, as well as diverse climates, soils and biomes. Amidst such diversity, Brazilian coffee producers have obtained various standards of qualities and aromas, between the arabica and robusta species, which each present a wide variety of lineages. However, temperatures in coffee producing municipalities in Brazil have increased by about 0.25 °C per decade and annual precipitation has decreased. Therefore, the agricultural sector may face serious challenges in the upcoming decades due to crop sensitivity to water shortages and thermal stress. Furthermore, higher temperatures may reduce the quality of the culture and increase pressure from pests and diseases, reducing worldwide agricultural production. The impacts of climate change directly affect the coffee microbiota. Within the climate change scenario, aflatoxins, which are more toxic than OTA, may become dominant, promoting greater food insecurity surrounding coffee production. Thus, closer attention on the part of authorities is fundamental to stimulate replacement of areas that are apt for coffee production, in line with changes in climate zoning, in order to avoid scarcity of coffee in the world market.

Machine Learning for Predicting Mycotoxin Occurrence in Maize

Meteorological conditions are the main driving variables for mycotoxin-producing fungi and the resulting contamination in maize grain, but the cropping system used can mitigate this weather impact considerably. Several researchers have investigated cropping operations' role in mycotoxin contamination, but these findings were inconclusive, precluding their use in predictive modeling. In this study a machine learning (ML) approach was considered, which included weather-based mechanistic model predictions for AFLA-maize and FER-maize [predicting aflatoxin B1 (AFB1) and fumonisins (FBs), respectively], and cropping system factors as the input variables. The occurrence of AFB1 and FBs in maize fields was recorded, and their corresponding cropping system data collected, over the years 2005-2018 in northern Italy. Two deep neural network (DNN) models were trained to predict, at harvest, which maize fields were contaminated beyond the legal limit with AFB1 and FBs. Both models reached an accuracy >75% demonstrating the ML approach added value with respect to classical statistical approaches (i.e., simple or multiple linear regression models). The improved predictive performance compared with that obtained for AFLA-maize and FER-maize was clearly demonstrated. This coupled to the large data set used, comprising a 13-year time series, and the good results for the statistical scores applied, together confirmed the robustness of the models developed here.

Perspectives on Global Mycotoxin Issues and Management From the MycoKey Maize Working Group

During the last decade, there have been many advances in research and technology that have greatly contributed to expanded capabilities and knowledge in detection and measurement, characterization, biosynthesis, and management of mycotoxins in maize. MycoKey, an EU-funded Horizon 2020 project, was established to advance knowledge and technology transfer around the globe to address mycotoxin impacts in key food and feed chains. MycoKey included several working groups comprising international experts in different fields of mycotoxicology. The MycoKey Maize Working Group recently convened to gather information and strategize for the development and implementation of solutions to the maize mycotoxin problem in light of current and emerging technologies. This feature summarizes the Maize WG discussion and recommendations for addressing mycotoxin problems in maize. Discussions focused on aflatoxins, deoxynivalenol, fumonisins, and zearalenone, which are the most widespread and persistently important mycotoxins in maize. Although regional differences were recognized, there was consensus about many of the priorities for research and effective management strategies. For preharvest management, genetic resistance and selecting adapted maize genotypes, along with insect management, were among the most fruitful strategies identified across the mycotoxin groups. For postharvest management, the most important practices included timely harvest, rapid grain drying, grain cleaning, and carefully managed storage conditions. Remediation practices such as optical sorting, density separation, milling, and chemical detoxification were also suggested. Future research and communication priorities included advanced breeding technologies, development of risk assessment tools, and the development and dissemination of regionally relevant management guidelines.

The MyToolbox EU-China Partnership-Progress and Future Directions in Mycotoxin Research and Management

Affordable and practical tools for farmers and food processors along the chain are required to efficiently reduce the risk of mycotoxin contamination of crops, feeds and foods. Developing new tools and enhancing existing ones was the mission of MyToolBox-a four-year EU-project that included important Chinese partners and joint research efforts. To identify future directions in mycotoxin research and management in China and their role in China-EU relations, a unique stakeholder workshop including group discussions was organized in Beijing. Six related topics: biocontrol, forecasting, sampling and analysis, silo management, detoxification, and the development of safe use options for contaminated materials were covered. The discussions clearly identified a critical need for smart, integrated strategies to address mycotoxin issues to attain safer food and feed, and to minimize losses and export rejections. Managing data on when, where and the size of mycotoxin contamination events and identifying the institution(s) to manage them are complex issues in China. Studies of microbes and novel, genetically-altered enzymes to limit pre-harvest contamination and to manage post-harvest product detoxification and alternate uses of contaminated materials are in the early stages in China. Further efforts are needed to increase the visibility of mycotoxin problems beyond the scientific and research communities.

AFLA-PISTACHIO: Development of a Mechanistic Model to Predict the Aflatoxin Contamination of Pistachio Nuts

In recent years, very many incidences of contamination with aflatoxin B₁ (AFB₁) in pistachio nuts have been reported as a major global problem for the crop. In Europe, legislation is in force and 12 μg/kg of AFB₁ is the maximum limit set for pistachios to be subjected to physical treatment before human consumption. The goal of the current study was to develop a mechanistic, weather-driven model to predict Aspergillus flavus growth and the AFB₁ contamination of pistachios on a daily basis from nut setting until harvest. The planned steps were to: (i) build a phenology model to predict the pistachio growth stages, (ii) develop a prototype model named AFLA-pistachio (model transfer from AFLA-maize), (iii) collect the meteorological and AFB₁ contamination data from pistachio orchards, (iv) run the model and elaborate a probability function to estimate the likelihood of overcoming the legal limit, and (v) manage a preliminary validation. The internal validation of AFLA-pistachio indicated that 75% of the predictions were correct. In the external validation with an independent three-year dataset, 95.6% of the samples were correctly predicted. According to the results, AFLA-pistachio seems to be a reliable tool to follow the dynamic of AFB₁ contamination risk throughout the pistachio growing season.

The impact of seasonal weather variation on mycotoxins: maize crop in 2014 in northern Italy as a case study

The occurrence of mycotoxins differs greatly from year to year and this variation has been attributed to climate variability. The aim of this study was to consider the variability of fungal infection and mycotoxin contamination on a small geographic scale as a possible result of local weather conditions. The presence of Fusarium spp. and Aspergillus spp. and their related mycotoxins was investigated in 51 maize fields grown in 2014 in the Emilia Romagna region, in northern Italy; information regarding the cropping system was collected for all the fields. Samples collected at harvest were analysed for fumonisins, aflatoxins and trichothecenes. Hourly meteorological data were collected from nine stations and fields were clustered with the stations based on the shortest distance principle. Fusarium spp. and Aspergillus spp. incidence varied between 17.6-46.0% and 0.6-6.3%, respectively. Fumonisins ranged between 1,718 and 106,054 μg/kg and aflatoxin B1 between <limit of quantification and 93.8 μg/kg, with a wide variability also with short distanced fields. Deoxynivalenol was detected with a considerable incidence (59%), but only three samples exceeded 1,750 μg/kg. Therefore, climate variability and related uncertainties, commonly stressed on a large scale, are not only a matter for policymakers, but also for farmers facing every day the impact on fungi and mycotoxin occurrence.

Pre- and Postharvest Strategies to Minimize Mycotoxin Contamination in the Rice Food Chain

Rice is part of many people's diet around the world, being the main energy source in some regions. Although fewer reports exist on the occurrence of mycotoxins in rice compared to other cereals, fungal contamination and the associated production of toxic metabolites, even at lower occurrence levels compared to other crops, are of concern because of the high consumption of rice in many countries. Due to the diversity of fungi that may contaminate the rice food chain, the co-occurrence of mycotoxins is frequent. Specific strategies to overcome these problems may be applied at the preharvest part of the crop chain, while assuring good practices at harvest and postharvest stages, since different fungi may find suitable conditions to grow at the various stages of the production chain. Therefore, the aim of this review is to present the state-of-the-art knowledge on such strategies in an integrated way, from the field to the final products, to reduce mycotoxin contamination in rice.

Cultural and Genetic Approaches to Manage Aflatoxin Contamination: Recent Insights Provide Opportunities for Improved Control

Aspergillus flavus is a morphologically complex species that can produce the group of polyketide derived carcinogenic and mutagenic secondary metabolites, aflatoxins, as well as other secondary metabolites such as cyclopiazonic acid and aflatrem. Aflatoxin causes aflatoxicosis when aflatoxins are ingested through contaminated food and feed. In addition, aflatoxin contamination is a major problem, from both an economic and health aspect, in developing countries, especially Asia and Africa, where cereals and peanuts are important food crops. Earlier measures for control of A. flavus infection and consequent aflatoxin contamination centered on creating unfavorable environments for the pathogen and destroying contaminated products. While development of atoxigenic (nonaflatoxin producing) strains of A. flavus as viable commercial biocontrol agents has marked a unique advance for control of aflatoxin contamination, particularly in Africa, new insights into the biology and sexuality of A. flavus are now providing opportunities to design improved atoxigenic strains for sustainable biological control of aflatoxin. Further, progress in the use of molecular technologies such as incorporation of antifungal genes in the host and host-induced gene silencing, is providing knowledge that could be harnessed to develop germplasm that is resistant to infection by A. flavus and aflatoxin contamination. This review summarizes the substantial progress that has been made to understand the biology of A. flavus and mitigate aflatoxin contamination with emphasis on maize. Concepts developed to date can provide a basis for future research efforts on the sustainable management of aflatoxin contamination.

A Weekly Indicator of Surface Moisture Status from Satellite Data for Operational Monitoring of Crop Conditions

The triangle method has been applied to derive a weekly indicator of evaporative fraction on vegetated areas in a temperate region in Northern Italy. Daily MODIS Aqua Land Surface Temperature (MYD11A1) data has been combined with air temperature maps and 8-day composite MODIS NDVI (MOD13Q1/MYD13Q1) data to estimate the Evaporative Fraction (EF) at 1 km resolution, on a daily basis. Measurements at two eddy covariance towers located within the study area have been exploited to assess the reliability of satellite based EF estimations as well as the robustness of input data. Weekly syntheses of the daily EF indicator (EF_w) were then derived at regional scale for the years 2010, 2011 and 2012 as a proxy of overall surface moisture condition. EF_w showed a temporal behavior consistent with growing cycles and agro-practices of the main crops cultivated in the study area (rice, forages and corn). Comparison with official regional corn yield data showed that variations in EF_w cumulated over summer are related with crop production shortages induced by water scarcity. These results suggest that weekly-averaged EF estimated from MODIS data is sensible to water stress conditions and can be used as an indicator of crops’ moisture conditions at agronomical district level. Advantages and disadvantages of the proposed approach to provide information useful to issue operational near real time bulletins on crop conditions at regional scale are discussed.

Modelling climate change impacts on mycotoxin contamination

Projected climate change effects will influence primary agricultural systems and thus food security, directly via impacts on yields, and indirectly via impacts on its safety, with mycotoxins considered as crucial hazards. Mycotoxins are produced by a wide variety of fungal species, each having their own characteristics and requirements. The geographic distribution of toxigenic fungi reflects their ecological needs, with thermophilic fungi prevalent at lower latitudes and psychrophiles at the higher latitudes. A resulting gradient of mycotoxin contamination has been repeatedly stressed. Changes in climatic conditions will lead to shifts in the fungal population and the mycotoxin patterns. In general, climate change is expected to increase mycotoxin contamination of crops, but due to the complexity of mycoflora associated to each crop and its interaction with the environment, it appears rash to draw conclusions without specific studies. Very recently first quantitative estimations of impacts of climate change on mycotoxin occurrence have been made. Two studies each applied models of different disciplines including climate projection, crop phenology and fungal/mycotoxin prediction to cereals cultivated in Europe. They were followed by a case study on climate change effects on Alternaria moulds and their mycotoxins in tomato. Results showed that DON contamination of wheat grown in Europe was, in general, expected to increase. However, variation was large, and in some years and some regions a decrease in DON contamination was expected. Regarding aflatoxin contamination of maize grown in Europe, an increase was estimated, mainly in the +2 °C scenario. Two main research gaps were identified related to the (limited) number of existing quantitative models taking into account climate change and their validation in limited areas. Efforts are therefore mandatory to be prepared for future changes and challenges on model validation and limited mycotoxin-crop combinations.

Aflatoxin B1 contamination in maize in Europe increases due to climate change

Climate change has been reported as a driver for emerging food and feed safety issues worldwide and its expected impact on the presence of mycotoxins in food and feed is of great concern. Aflatoxins have the highest acute and chronic toxicity of all mycotoxins; hence, the maximal concentration in agricultural food and feed products and their commodities is regulated worldwide. The possible change in patterns of aflatoxin occurrence in crops due to climate change is a matter of concern that may require anticipatory actions. The aim of this study was to predict aflatoxin contamination in maize and wheat crops, within the next 100 years, under a +2 °C and +5 °C climate change scenario, applying a modelling approach. Europe was virtually covered by a net, 50 × 50 km grids, identifying 2254 meshes with a central point each. Climate data were generated for each point, linked to predictive models and predictions were run consequently. Aflatoxin B₁ is predicted to become a food safety issue in maize in Europe, especially in the +2 °C scenario, the most probable scenario of climate change expected for the next years. These results represent a supporting tool to reinforce aflatoxin management and to prevent human and animal exposure.

OTA-Grapes: A Mechanistic Model to Predict Ochratoxin A Risk in Grapes, a Step beyond the Systems Approach

Ochratoxin A (OTA) is a fungal metabolite dangerous for human and animal health due to its nephrotoxic, immunotoxic, mutagenic, teratogenic and carcinogenic effects, classified by the International Agency for Research on Cancer in group 2B, possible human carcinogen. This toxin has been stated as a wine contaminant since 1996. The aim of this study was to develop a conceptual model for the dynamic simulation of the A. carbonarius life cycle in grapes along the growing season, including OTA production in berries. Functions describing the role of weather parameters in each step of the infection cycle were developed and organized in a prototype model called OTA-grapes. Modelling the influence of temperature on OTA production, it emerged that fungal strains can be shared in two different clusters, based on the dynamic of OTA production and according to the optimal temperature. Therefore, two functions were developed, and based on statistical data analysis, it was assumed that the two types of strains contribute equally to the population. Model validation was not possible because of poor OTA contamination data, but relevant differences in OTA-I, the output index of the model, were noticed between low and high risk areas. To our knowledge, this is the first attempt to assess/model A. carbonarius in order to predict the risk of OTA contamination in grapes.