A world apart: Levels and determinants of excess mortality due to COVID-19 in care homes: The case of the Belgian region of Wallonia during the spring 2020 wave

Uncovering the toll of the first three COVID-19 waves: excess mortality and social patterns in Belgium

BACKGROUND

This study aims to assess which population groups experienced the heaviest mortality burden during the first three COVID-19 waves in Belgium; and investigate potential changes in social differences in all-cause mortality during the epidemic and compared to the pre-COVID period.

METHODS

Exhaustive all-cause mortality information (2015-2021) from the Belgian population register was linked to demographic and socioeconomic census and register data. Annual cohorts consisting of 6.5 million to 6.8 million persons were created selecting persons aged 35 and older. Excess mortality was investigated comparing the 137,354 deaths observed during the first three COVID-19 waves with mortality in the reference period 2015-2019. Methods of analysis include direct standardization and Poisson regression analyses.

RESULTS

Elderly men experienced the highest absolute mortality burden during all three COVID-waves, followed by elderly women, middle-aged men, and middle-aged women. Care home residents consistently experienced higher mortality rates during the first and second wave compared to peers living in other living arrangements. In wave 3, care home residents showed significant absolute mortality deficits compared to the reference period. When adjusting for all demographic and socioeconomic factors, the traditional pattern of educational and income mortality inequalities was found among the elderly population during the COVID-waves. In contrast, the educational mortality gap among middle-aged persons deepened during COVID-waves 2 and 3 with excess mortality between 19 and 30% observed among mainly lower-educated persons. Income mortality inequalities among middle-aged women and men remained stable or even diminished for some specific groups in some waves.

CONCLUSION

The widening educational mortality gap among middle-aged persons in successive waves suggest an important role of knowledge and associated educational resources during the COVID-19 epidemic. Belgium's broad implementation of public health control and prevention measures may have successfully averted a further widening of social mortality inequality between income groups and among the elderly population.

Unravelling demographic and socioeconomic patterns of COVID-19 death and other causes of death: results of an individual-level analysis of exhaustive cause of death data in Belgium, 2020

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic led to significant excess mortality in 2020 in Belgium. By using microlevel cause-specific mortality data for the total adult population in Belgium in 2020, three outcomes were considered in this study aiming at predicting sociodemographic (SD) and socioeconomic (SE) patterns of (1) COVID-19 specific death compared to survival; (2) all other causes of death (OCOD) compared to survival; and (3) COVID-19 specific death compared to all OCOD.

METHODS

Two complementary statistical methods were used. First, multivariable logistic regression models providing odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were fitted for the three study outcomes. In addition, we computed conditional inference tree (CIT) algorithms, a non-parametric class of classification trees, to identify and rank by significance level the strongest predictors of the three study outcomes.

RESULTS

Older individuals, males, individuals living in collectivities, first-generation migrants, and deprived SE groups experienced higher odds of dying from COVID-19 compared to survival; living in collectivities was identified by the CIT as the strongest predictor followed by age and sex. Education emerged as one of the strongest predictors for individuals not living in collectivities. Overall, similar patterns were observed for all OCOD except for first- and second-generation migrants having lower odds of all OCOD compared to survival; age group was identified by the CIT as the strongest predictor. Older individuals, males, individuals living in collectivities, first- and second-generation migrants, and individuals with lower levels of education had higher odds of COVID-19 death compared to all OCOD; living in collectivities was identified by the CIT as the strongest predictor followed by age, sex, and migration background. Education and income emerged as among the strongest predictors among individuals not living in collectivities.

CONCLUSIONS

This study identified important SD and SE disparities in COVID-19 mortality, with living in collectivities highlighted as the strongest predictor. This underlines the importance of implementing preventive measures, particularly within the most vulnerable populations, in infectious disease pandemic preparedness to reduce virus circulation and the resulting lethality.

Post COVID-19 condition and health-related quality of life: a longitudinal cohort study in the Belgian adult population

BACKGROUND

Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, most research has focused on the acute phase of COVID-19, yet some people experience symptoms beyond, referred to as post COVID-19 conditions (PCC). However, evidence on PCC and its impacts on health-related quality of life (HRQoL) is still scarce. This study aimed to assess the impact of COVID-19 and PCC on HRQoL.

METHODS

This is a longitudinal cohort study of the Belgian adult population with recent SARS-CoV-2 infection. In total, 5,727 people were followed up between the time of their infection and three months later. HRQoL was measured with the EQ-5D-5L questionnaire before and during the infection and three months later. Linear mixed regression models were built to assess the longitudinal association between participants' characteristics and the evolution of their HRQoL.

RESULTS

This study found a significant decline in HRQoL during the SARS-CoV-2 infection in comparison to the situation before (β=-9.91, 95%CI=-10.13;-9.85), but no clinically important difference three months after the infection compared to the situation before, except among people reporting PCC (β=-11.15, 95%CI=-11.72;-10.51). The main symptoms of PCC with a significant negative impact on the different dimensions of HRQoL were fatigue/exhaustion (21%), headache (11%), memory problems (10%), shortness of breath (9%), and joint (7%) or muscle pain (6%). The dimension of HRQoL most negatively affected by several PCC symptoms was pain/discomfort.

CONCLUSIONS

With the growing number of people infected with SARS-CoV-2, PCC and its impact on HRQoL are becoming important public health issues. To allow people with PCC to recover and to limit its detrimental impact on HRQoL, it is essential to manage its various heterogeneous symptoms using a multidisciplinary approach.

Immunovirological and environmental screening reveals actionable risk factors for fatal COVID-19 during post-vaccination nursing home outbreaks

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination has resulted in excellent protection against fatal disease, including in older adults. However, risk factors for post-vaccination fatal COVID-19 are largely unknown. We comprehensively studied three large nursing home outbreaks (20-35% fatal cases among residents) by combining severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) aerosol monitoring, whole-genome phylogenetic analysis and immunovirological profiling of nasal mucosa by digital nCounter transcriptomics. Phylogenetic investigations indicated that each outbreak stemmed from a single introduction event, although with different variants (Delta, Gamma and Mu). SARS-CoV-2 was detected in aerosol samples up to 52 d after the initial infection. Combining demographic, immune and viral parameters, the best predictive models for mortality comprised IFNB1 or age, viral ORF7a and ACE2 receptor transcripts. Comparison with published pre-vaccine fatal COVID-19 transcriptomic and genomic signatures uncovered a unique IRF3 low/IRF7 high immune signature in post-vaccine fatal COVID-19 outbreaks. A multi-layered strategy, including environmental sampling, immunomonitoring and early antiviral therapy, should be considered to prevent post-vaccination COVID-19 mortality in nursing homes.

Role of Sex and Age in Fatal Outcomes of COVID-19: Women and Older Centenarians Are More Resilient

In the present paper, we have analysed the role of age and sex in the fatal outcome of COVID-19, as there are conflicting results in the literature. As such, we have answered three controversial questions regarding this aspect of the COVID-19 pandemic: (1) Have women been more resilient than men? (2) Did centenarians die less than the remaining older people? (3) Were older centenarians more resistant to SARS-CoV-2 than younger centenarians? The literature review demonstrated that: (1) it is women who are more resilient, in agreement with data showing that women live longer than men even during severe famines and epidemics; however, there are conflicting data regarding centenarian men; (2) centenarians overall did not die less than remaining older people, likely linked to their frailty; (3) in the first pandemic wave of 2020, centenarians > 101 years old (i.e., born before 1919), but not "younger centenarians", have been more resilient to COVID-19 and this may be related to the 1918 Spanish flu epidemic, although it is unclear what the mechanisms might be involved.

Determinants of the risk of burnout among nurses during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Belgium: A cross-sectional study

AIMS

To estimate the prevalence of burnout risk among nurses during the peak of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Belgium and to identify risk groups and protective and risk factors.

BACKGROUND

Nurses are at high risk of burnout, and this can have negative consequences for them, patients and health care systems. The pandemic may have changed their working conditions and increased their risk of burnout.

METHODS

The risk of burnout was assessed through the Maslach Burnout Inventory Scale. Information on socio-demographic and working conditions during the pandemic was also collected. We obtained 4552 respondents through convenience sampling.

RESULTS

A high risk of burnout was found in 70% of respondents. The main risk factors of burnout were the lack of personal protective equipment, changes in perceived workload and working with COVID-19 patients.

CONCLUSIONS

An uneven workload for nurses is an underlying problem during the COVID-19 pandemic and a significant risk factor for their burnout. The decreased workload is a risk factor for burnout as important as increased workload and repeated exposure to COVID-19.

IMPLICATIONS FOR NURSING MANAGEMENT

Burnout prevention and treatment interventions must target the correct risk factors and identify nurses at risk to be cost-effective.

Effect of COVID-19 Vaccination Campaign in Belgian Nursing Homes on COVID-19 Cases, Hospital Admissions, and Deaths among Residents

In view of the grave situation during the first two waves of SARS-CoV-2 virus (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2), nursing homes (NHs) were prioritised for vaccination once vaccines became available in Belgium. The aim of this study was to assess the effect of the COVID-19 (Coronavirus Disease 2019) vaccination campaign on COVID-19 cases, hospital admissions, and deaths among residents living in Belgian NHs. All 1545 Belgian NHs were invited to participate in a COVID-19 surveillance program. In Belgium, before vaccination, COVID-19 morbidity and mortality rates were driven by the situation in the NHs. Shortly after the COVID-19 vaccination campaign, and later the booster campaign, the number of hospital admissions and deaths among NH residents dropped, while clear peaks could be observed among the general population. The impact of vaccination on virus circulation was less effective than expected. However, due to the high vaccination coverage, NH residents remain well protected against hospital admission and death due to COVID-19 more than one year after being vaccinated.

Heterogeneity in subnational mortality in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic: the case of Belgian districts in 2020

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to major shocks in mortality trends in many countries. Yet few studies have evaluated the heterogeneity of the mortality shocks at the sub-national level, rigorously accounting for the different sources of uncertainty.

METHODS

Using death registration data from Belgium, we first assess change in the heterogeneity of districts' standardized mortality ratios in 2020, when compared to previous years. We then measure the shock effect of the pandemic using district-level values of life expectancy, comparing districts' observed and projected life expectancy, accounting for all sources of uncertainty (stemming from life-table construction at district level and from projection methods at country and district levels). Bayesian modelling makes it easy to combine the different sources of uncertainty in the assessment of the shock. This is of particular interest at a finer geographical scale characterized by high stochastic variation in annual death counts.

RESULTS

The heterogeneity in the impact of the pandemic on all-cause mortality across districts is substantial: while some districts barely show any impact, the Bruxelles-Capitale and Mons districts experienced a decrease in life expectancy at birth of 2.24 (95% CI:1.33-3.05) and 2.10 (95% CI:0.86-3.30) years, respectively. The year 2020 was associated with an increase in the heterogeneity of mortality levels at a subnational scale in comparison to past years, measured in terms of both standardized mortality ratios and life expectancies at birth. Decisions on uncertainty thresholds have a large bearing on the interpretation of the results.

CONCLUSION

Developing sub-national mortality estimates taking careful account of uncertainty is key to identifying which areas have been disproportionately affected.

The association between area deprivation and COVID-19 incidence: a municipality-level spatio-temporal study in Belgium, 2020–2021

Background

In Belgium, current research on socio-economic inequalities in the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) crisis has mainly focused on excess mortality and data from the first epidemiological wave. The current study adds onto this by examining the association between COVID-19 incidence and area deprivation during the first five wave and interwave periods, thus adding a temporal gradient to the analyses.

Methods

We use all confirmed COVID-19 cases between March 2020 and June 2021 in Belgium, aggregated at the municipality-level. These data were collected by the national laboratory-based COVID-19 surveillance system. A level of area deprivation was assigned to each Belgian municipality using data of three socio-economic variables: the share of unemployed persons in the active population, the share of households without a car and the share of low-educated persons. The spatio-temporal association between COVID-19 incidence and area deprivation was assessed by performing multivariate negative-binomial regression analyses and computing population attributable fractions.

Results

A significant association between COVID-19 incidence and area deprivation was found over the entire study period, with the incidence in the most deprived areas predicted to be 24% higher than in the least deprived areas. This effect was dependent on the period during the COVID-19 crisis. The largest socio-economic inequalities in COVID-19 infections could be observed during wave 2 and wave 3, with a clear disadvantage for deprived areas.

Conclusion

Our results provide new insights into spatio-temporal patterns of socio-economic inequalities in COVID-19 incidence in Belgium. They reveal the existence of inequalities and a shift of these patterns over time.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13690-022-00856-9.