Medical and economic burden of influenza in the elderly population in central and eastern European countries

The influenza landscape and vaccination coverage in older adults during the SARS-Cov-2 pandemic: data from Several European Countries and Israel

INTRODUCTION

The Raise Awareness of Influenza Strategies in Europe (RAISE) group gathered information about the healthcare burden of influenza (hospitalizations, intensive care unit [ICU] admissions, and excess deaths), surveillance systems, and the vaccine coverage rate (VCR) in older adults in 18 European countries and Israel.

AREAS COVERED

Published medical literature and official medical documentation on the influenza disease burden in the participating countries were reviewed from 2010/11 until the 2022/23 influenza seasons. Information on the framework for monitoring the disease burden and the provision for ensuring older adults had access to vaccination in their respective countries was provided. Data on influenza VCR in older adults were collected for the 2019/20 to 2022/23 influenza seasons. Data are reported descriptively.

EXPERT OPINION

Influenza presents a significant healthcare burden in older adults. Reporting outcomes across participating countries is heterogeneous, highlighting the need for standardized approaches. Although older adults receive free influenza vaccination, vaccine uptake is highly variable among countries. Moreover, hospitalization rates remain high even in countries reporting a high VCR. Increased awareness and education on the burden of disease and the broader use of improved influenza vaccines for older adults may help reduce the disease burden on this population.

Costs and cost-effectiveness of influenza illness and vaccination in low- and middle-income countries: A systematic review from 2012 to 2022

BACKGROUND

Historically, lack of data on cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccination has been identified as a barrier to vaccine use in low- and middle-income countries. We conducted a systematic review of economic evaluations describing (1) costs of influenza illness; (2) costs of influenza vaccination programs; and (3) vaccination cost-effectiveness from low- and middle-income countries to assess if gaps persist that could hinder global implementation of influenza vaccination programs.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We performed a systematic search in Medline, Embase, Cochrane Library, CINAHL, and Scopus in January 2022 and October 2023 using a combination of the following key words: "influenza" AND "cost" OR "economic." The search included studies with publication years 2012 through 2022. Studies were eligible if they (1) presented original, peer-reviewed findings on cost of illness, cost of vaccination program, or cost-effectiveness of vaccination for seasonal influenza; and (2) included data for at least 1 low- or middle-income country. We abstracted general study characteristics and data specific to each of the 3 study types. Of 54 included studies, 26 presented data on cost-effectiveness, 24 on cost-of-illness, and 5 on program costs. Represented countries were classified as upper-middle income (UMIC; n = 12), lower-middle income (LMIC; n = 7), and low-income (LIC; n = 3). The most evaluated target groups were children (n = 26 studies), older adults (n = 17), and persons with chronic medical conditions (n = 12); fewer studies evaluated pregnant persons (n = 9), healthcare workers (n = 5), and persons in congregate living settings (n = 1). Costs-of-illness were generally higher in UMICs than in LMICs/LICs; however, the highest national economic burden, as a percent of gross domestic product and national health expenditure, was reported from an LIC. Among studies that evaluated the cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccine introduction, most (88%) interpreted at least 1 scenario per target group as either cost-effective or cost-saving, based on thresholds designated in the study. Key limitations of this work included (1) heterogeneity across included studies; (2) restrictiveness of the inclusion criteria used; and (3) potential for missed influenza burden from use of sentinel surveillance systems.

CONCLUSIONS

The 54 studies identified in this review suggest an increased momentum to generate economic evidence about influenza illness and vaccination from low- and middle-income countries during 2012 to 2022. However, given that we observed substantial heterogeneity, continued evaluation of the economic burden of influenza illness and costs/cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccination, particularly in LICs and among underrepresented target groups (e.g., healthcare workers and pregnant persons), is needed. Use of standardized methodology could facilitate pooling across settings and knowledge sharing to strengthen global influenza vaccination programs.

Distinct immunological and molecular signatures underpinning influenza vaccine responsiveness in the elderly

Seasonal influenza outbreaks, especially in high-risk groups such as the elderly, represent an important public health problem. Prevailing inadequate efficacy of seasonal vaccines is a crucial bottleneck. Understanding the immunological and molecular mechanisms underpinning differential influenza vaccine responsiveness is essential to improve vaccination strategies. Here we show comprehensive characterization of the immune response of randomly selected elderly participants (≥ 65 years), immunized with the adjuvanted influenza vaccine Fluad. In-depth analyses by serology, multi-parametric flow cytometry, multiplex and transcriptome analysis, coupled to bioinformatics and mathematical modelling, reveal distinguishing immunological and molecular features between responders and non-responders defined by vaccine-induced seroconversion. Non-responders are specifically characterized by multiple suppressive immune mechanisms. The generated comprehensive high dimensional dataset enables the identification of putative mechanisms and nodes responsible for vaccine non-responsiveness independently of confounding age-related effects, with the potential to facilitate development of tailored vaccination strategies for the elderly.

Unintended beneficial effects of COVID-19 on influenza-associated emergency department use in Korea

BACKGROUND

Non-pharmaceutical interventions, including hand hygiene, wearing masks, and cough etiquette, and public health measures such as social distancing, used to prevent the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), could reduce the incidence rate of respiratory viral infections such as influenza. We evaluated the effect of COVID-19 on the incidence of influenza in Korea.

METHODS

This retrospective study included all patients who visited five urban emergency departments (EDs) during the influenza epidemic seasons of 2017-18, 2018-19, and 2019-20. Influenza was defined as ICD-10 codes J09, J10, and J11, determined from ED discharge records. The weekly incidence rates of influenza per 1000 ED visits during the 2019-20 season, when COVID-19 became a pandemic, were compared with those of 2017-18 and 2018-19. The actual incidence rate of the 2019-20 season was compared with the predicted value using a generalized estimation equation model based on 2017-18 and 2018-19 data.

RESULTS

The weekly influenza incidence rate decreased from 101.6 to 56.6 between week 4 and week 5 in 2020 when the first COVID-19 patient was diagnosed and public health measures were implemented. The weekly incidence rate during week 10 and week 22 of the 2019-20 season decreased most steeply compared to 2017-18 and 2018-19. The actual influenza incidence rate observed in the 2019-20 season was lower than the rate predicted in the 2017-18 and 2018-19 seasons starting from week 7 when a COVID-19 outbreak occurred in Korea.

CONCLUSIONS

The implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions and public health measures for the COVID-19 epidemic effectively reduced the transmission of influenza and associated ED use in Korea. Implementing appropriate public health measures could reduce outbreaks and lessen the burden of influenza during future influenza epidemics.

Characterization and Outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Overweight and Obese Patients: A Dynamic Comparison of COVID-19 Pandemic Waves

There are few data on the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 viral manifestations in obese and overweight persons during each of the five waves that occurred in Romania during the last two years. As such, the purpose of this research was to characterize the variance in case severity, symptomatology, ICU hospitalizations, and mortality among overweight and obese individuals infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus. We included 250 overweight and obese patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19, where 50 patients were selected from each of the five pandemic waves that existed in Romania until March 2022. A total of 113 patients with normal body mass index were included in the study. They were matched with overweight and obese patients by age, gender, and cardiovascular comorbidities to avoid the effect of confounding factors. Between the five waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in Romania, the present investigation found substantial changes in overweight and obese patient features. Obesity increases the risk of hospitalization, severe complications, and mortality from COVID-19. However, this unique demographic is disproportionately affected by obesity-related comorbidities, which contribute to these adverse outcomes. We advocate for the development of new guiding principles for the formulation of healthcare strategies aimed at high-prevalence special populations such as overweight and obese individuals, while also promoting pandemic containment and avoiding the recurrence of pandemic waves with the same guidelines that proved detrimental in terms of economic and human life loss.

Influenza as an important factor causing increased risk of patients' deaths, excessive morbidity and prolonged hospital stays

INTRODUCTION

Influenza infection is associated with potential serious complications, increased hospitalization rates and a higher risk of death.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

A retrospective comparative analysis of selected indicators of hospitalization at the University Hospital in Wroclaw was conducted on patients with confirmed influenza infection and a control group during the 2018-2019 influenza season. The threshold for statistical significance of differences between the groups was set at p < 0.05.

RESULTS

The types of influenza viruses confirmed in the hospital patients were remarkably similar to those occurring in the general population in Poland. The largest numbers of influenza cases were observed at the departments related to internal medicine where patients with cardiac, lung and renal diseases were hospitalized. The risk of death among the patients with confirmed influenza infection was significantly higher than among the other patients. The highest risk of death was observed among the patients with confirmed influenza infection at the departments related to internal medicine. Considering patients from the entire hospital, the mean length of hospital stay for those with confirmed influenza was 2.13-fold longer than for those in the control group. Comparisons of the median, minimum and maximum lengths of hospitalization between the patients with confirmed influenza infection and the control group reveal even more distinct differences.

CONCLUSIONS

Significant differences in the selected indicators of hospitalization were observed between the patients with confirmed influenza infection and the control group; they are associated with serious social costs, such as prolonged hospital stay and a higher risk of death during hospitalization in Poland.

Seasonal Influenza and Low Flu Vaccination Coverage as Important Factors Modifying the Costs and Availability of Hospital Services in Poland: A Retrospective Comparative Study

Introduction: Influenza infection is associated with potential serious complications, increased hospitalization rates, and a higher risk of death. Materials and Methods: A retrospective comparative analysis of selected indicators of hospitalization from the University Hospital in Wroclaw, Poland, was carried out on patients with confirmed influenza infection in comparison to a control group randomly selected from among all other patients hospitalized on the respective wards during the 2018-2019 influenza season. Results: The mean laboratory testing costs for the entire hospital were 3.74-fold higher and the mean imaging test costs were 4.02-fold higher for patients with confirmed influenza than for the control group; the hospital expenses were additionally raised by the cost of antiviral therapy, which is striking when compared against the cost of a single flu vaccine. During the 2018-2019 influenza season, influenza infections among the hospital patients temporarily limited the healthcare service availability in the institution, which resulted in reduced admission rates to the departments related to internal medicine; the mean absence among the hospital staff totaled approximately 7 h per employee, despite 7.3% of the staff having been vaccinated against influenza at the hospital's expense. Conclusions: There were significant differences in the hospitalization indicators between the patients with confirmed influenza and the control group, which markedly increased the hospital care costs in this multi-specialty university hospital.

Situational assessment of adult vaccine preventable disease and the potential for immunization advocacy and policy in low- and middle-income countries

By 2050, the number of adults over 65 years of age will be double the under-5 population, and heavily concentrated in low- and middle-income countries. Population growth and increasing life expectancies call for effective healthy aging strategies inclusive of immunization to reduce the burden of vaccine-preventable diseases, improve quality of life, and mitigate antimicrobial resistance. Based on a review of available literature on the pneumococcal disease, influenza, and herpes zoster epidemiology and economic burden, and the health systems and policy barriers for adult immunization, we identified evidence gaps and considerations for prioritizing adult immunization. The body of evidence for adult immunization and the health and economic burden of adult disease is heavily concentrated in high-income countries. The few countries reporting adult immunization policies generally focus on high-risk groups. Despite robust child immunization programs in most countries, adult immunization programs and policies lag far behind and there is a general lack of appropriate delivery platforms. Global adult disease burden and economic costs are substantial but evidence from low- and middle-income countries is limited. There is a need for a strengthened evidence base and political commitment to drive a comprehensive, global technical consensus on adult immunization.

Flu Vaccinations in Pharmacies-A Review of Pharmacists Fighting Pandemics and Infectious Diseases

The phenomenon of population ageing observed over recent years involves growing healthcare needs and the limited staffing and financing of healthcare systems, and as such demands some functional changes in the healthcare model in many countries. This situation is particularly significant in the face of a pandemic, e.g., flu, and currently COVID-19.As well as social education, preventive vaccinations are the most effective method of fighting the infectious diseases posing a special threat to seniors. Despite this, the vaccination coverage level in most European countries is relatively low. This is largely due to patients having limited access to vaccinations. In some countries, implementing vaccinations in pharmacies and by authorized pharmacists has significantly improved vaccination coverage rates and herd immunity, while lowering the cost of treating infections and the resulting complications, as well as minimizing the phenomenon of inappropriate antibiotic therapies. This article presents the role of pharmacists in the prevention of infectious diseases, pointing out the measurable effects of engaging pharmacists in conducting preventive vaccinations, as well as analyzing the models of implementing and conducting vaccinations in pharmacies in selected countries, and depicting recommendations regarding vaccinations developed by international organizations. The presented data is used to suggest requirements for the implementation of preventive vaccinations in community pharmacies.

Burden of influenza in Romania. A retrospective analysis of 2014/15 - 2018/19 seasons in Romania

Introduction

Influenza is a seasonal epidemic with a heavy negative impact both on population health, and healthcare system utilization; until now, there are only two burden of disease studies in the Romanian context. This study aims to quantify the burden of influenza for the Romanian population for the seasons 2014/15 to 2018/19, using health administrative databases.

Methods

Incidence, hospitalization and mortality rates attributable to influenza as well as total number of influenza cases and deaths were estimated, for each season in the analyzed period, by combining the new cases reported by General Practitioners, Emergency Department presentations, hospitalizations, number of deaths, positivity rate of influenza, and probability to be consulted by a physician. Years of life lost due to premature death attributable to influenza complications were also computed.

Results

On average, 591,151 cases/season attributable to influenza were estimated during the period 2014/15 - 2018/19. The highest rates for incidence, hospitalization and presentation to emergency department were found in the age groups 0-4 years and 65 years and above. Influenza mortality rate was estimated at 3 per 100,000 persons and the 65 and above age group had the highest rate.

Conclusions

About 3% of the total Romanian population is estimated to develop an influenza attributable disease in a non-pandemic season. An overall increasing trend of the mortality rate attributable to influenza may be also underlined. On average, a person loses 12 years due to premature death caused by complications of influenza.

Seasonal influenza vaccination among older adults in Jordan: prevalence, knowledge, and attitudes

Objectives: The current study aimed to evaluate the prevalence, level of knowledge and attitudes to seasonal influenza vaccination among older adults in Jordan. Methods: This was a cross-sectional study in which a close-ended questionnaire was administered to older adults (65 years or older) in two major cities in Jordan between May 2018 and July 2018. A p-value of less than 0.05 was considered the cutoff level for statistical significance. Results: Among 500 participants, only 1.2% (n = 6) received a seasonal influenza vaccine during the previous year. In assessing influenza disease and influenza vaccine knowledge, 47.8% had good knowledge. Around 61% of older adults reported influenza vaccine is effective against preventing influenza however, 49.8% reported that influenza could be treated with the influenza vaccine. Moreover, 27% thought the influenza vaccine is important for older adults. In terms of attitudes toward the vaccine, 24.6% had positive attitudes and 40.6% strongly agreed/agreed that influenza is a serious disease in older adults and they should take the influenza vaccine to prevent influenza. Conclusion: The results of this study showed an extremely poor influenza vaccination rate among older adults and a low level of influenza vaccination knowledge and attitudes.

The 2017-2018 influenza season in Bucharest, Romania: epidemiology and characteristics of hospital admissions for influenza-like illness

BACKGROUND

Seasonal influenza causes a considerable burden to healthcare services every year. To better measure the impact of severe influenza cases in Romania, we analyzed active surveillance data collected during the 2017-2018 season from patients admitted for influenza-like illness (ILI) at a tertiary care hospital in Bucharest.

METHODS

Patients admitted for acute ILI were included if they were resident in the Bucharest-Ilfov region, had been hospitalized for at least 24 h, and had onset of symptoms within 7 days before admission. Patient demographics, healthcare use, vaccination status, and outcome data were collected by questionnaire or by searching clinical records. Respiratory swabs were also obtained from each patient to confirm influenza A (A/H1 and A/H3 subtypes) or influenza B (Yamagata and Victoria lineages) infection by real-time reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction assay.

RESULTS

The study included 502 patients, many (45.2%) of whom were aged < 5 years. Overall, 108 patients (21.5%) had one or more comorbidities. Seventeen adults aged 18-64 years (3.4%) had been vaccinated against influenza. Patients were hospitalized for a median of 5 days and most (90.4%) were prescribed antiviral treatment. More than one-half of the patients (n = 259, 51.6%) were positive for influenza. Most influenza cases were caused by B viruses (172/259, 66.4%), which were mostly of the B/Yamagata lineage (85 of 94 characterized, 90.4%). Most of the subtyped A viruses were A/H1 (59/74, 79.7%). A/H1 viruses were frequently detected in influenza-positive admissions throughout the 2017-2018 season, whereas the predominant B/Yamagata viruses were detected around the middle of the season, with a peak in cases at week 7 of 2018. Eleven patients were admitted to an intensive care unit; of these, one patient with confirmed B/Yamagata infection died.

CONCLUSIONS

These results show that seasonal influenza results in considerable hospitalization in Bucharest-Ilfov, Romania and suggest vaccine coverage should be extended, especially to the youngest age groups. The data from this study should help inform and optimize national influenza healthcare policies.

Circulation of influenza A and B in the Czech Republic from 2000-2001 to 2015-2016

Background

To improve national influenza vaccination recommendations, additional data on influenza A and B virus circulation are needed. Here, we describe the circulation of influenza A and B in the Czech Republic during 16 seasons.

Methods

This was a retrospective analysis of data collected from the 2000–2001 to 2015–2016 influenza seasons by the Czech Republic national influenza surveillance network. Influenza was confirmed and viral isolates subtyped by virological assays followed by antigen detection or by reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction.

Results

Of 16,940 samples collected, 5144 (30.4%) were influenza-positive. Influenza A represented 78.6% of positive cases overall and accounted for more than 55.0% of all influenza cases in every season, except for 2005–2006 (6.0%). Both A/H1N1 and A/H3N2 were detected in most seasons, except for 2001–2002 and 2003–2004 (only A/H3N2), and 2007–2008 and 2009–2010 (only A/H1N1). Influenza B represented 21.4% of positive cases overall (range, 0.0–94.0% per season). Both influenza B lineages were detected in three seasons, a single B lineage in 11, and no B strain in two. For the 11 seasons where influenza B accounted for ≥20% of positive cases, the dominant lineage was Yamagata in six and Victoria in four. In the remaining season, the two lineages co-circulated. For two seasons (2005–2006 and 2007–2008), the B lineage in the trivalent influenza vaccine did not match the dominant circulating B lineage.

Conclusions

In the Czech Republic, during the 2000–2001 to 2015–2016 influenza seasons, influenza virus circulation varied considerably. Although influenza A accounted for the most cases in almost all seasons, influenza B made a substantial, sometimes dominant, contribution to influenza disease.

Economic and operational impact of an improved pathway using rapid molecular diagnostic testing for patients with influenza-like illness in a German emergency department

To evaluate the economic and operational effects of implementing a shorted diagnostic pathway during influenza epidemics. This retrospective study used emergency department (ED) data from the 2014/2015 influenza season. Alere i influenza A & B rapid molecular diagnostic test (RDT) was compared with the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) pathway. Differences in room occupancy time in the ED and inpatient ward and cost differences were calculated for the 14-week influenza season. The process flow was more streamlined with the RDT pathway, and the necessary isolation time in the ED was 9 h lower than for PCR. The difference in the ED examination room occupancy time was 2.9 h per patient on a weekday and 4 h per patient on a weekend day, and the difference in the inpatient room occupancy time was 2 h per patient on a weekday and 3 h per patient on a weekend day. Extrapolated time differences across the influenza season were projected to be 2733 h in the ED examination room occupancy and 1440 h in inpatient room occupancy. In patients with a negative diagnosis, the RDT was also estimated to reduce the total diagnostic costs by 41.52 € per patient compared with PCR. The total cost difference was projected to be 31,892 € across a 14-week influenza season. The improved process and earlier diagnosis with the RDT pathway compared with conventional PCR resulted in considerable savings in ED, inpatient room occupancy time and cost across the influenza season.

The spatiotemporal characteristics of influenza A and B in the WHO European Region: can one define influenza transmission zones in Europe?

We aimed to assess the epidemiology and spatiotemporal patterns of influenza in the World Health Organization (WHO) European Region and evaluate the validity of partitioning the Region into five influenza transmission zones (ITZs) as proposed by the WHO. We used the FluNet database and included over 650,000 influenza cases from 2000 to 2015. We analysed the data by country and season (from July to the following June). We calculated the median proportion of cases caused by each virus type in a season, compared the timing of the primary peak between countries and used a range of cluster analysis methods to assess the degree of overlap between the WHO-defined and data-driven ITZs. Influenza A and B caused, respectively, a median of 83% and 17% cases in a season. There was a significant west-to-east and non-significant (p = 0.10) south-to-north gradient in the timing of influenza activity. Typically, influenza peaked in February and March; influenza A earlier than influenza B. Most countries in the WHO European Region would fit into two ITZs: ‘Western Europe’ and ‘Eastern Europe’; countries bordering Asia may be better placed into extra-European ITZs. Our findings have implications for the presentation of surveillance data and prevention and control measures in this large WHO Region.

Estimating burden of influenza-associated influenza-like illness and severe acute respiratory infection at public healthcare facilities in Romania during the 2011/12-2015/16 influenza seasons

BACKGROUND

Influenza is responsible for substantial morbidity and mortality, but there is limited information on reliable disease burden estimates, especially from middle-income countries in the WHO European Region.

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the incidence of medically attended influenza-associated influenza-like illness (ILI) and hospitalizations due to severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) presenting to public healthcare facilities in Romania.

PATIENTS/METHODS

Sentinel influenza surveillance data for ILI and SARI from 2011/12-2015/16, including virological data, were used to estimate influenza-associated ILI and SARI incidence/100 000 and their 95% confidence intervals (95% CI).

RESULTS

The overall annual incidence of ILI and influenza-associated ILI per 100 000 persons in Romania varied between 68 (95% CI: 61-76) and 318 (95% CI: 298-338) and between 23 (95% CI: 19-29) and 189 (95% CI: 149-240), respectively. The highest ILI and influenza incidence was among children aged 0-4 years. We estimated that SARI incidence per 100 000 persons was 6 (95% CI: 5-7) to 9 (95% CI: 8-10), of which 2 (95% CI: 1-2) to 3 (95% CI: 2-4) were due to influenza. Up to 0.3% of the Romanian population were annually reported with ILI, and 0.01% was hospitalized with SARI, of which as much as one-third could be explained by influenza.

CONCLUSIONS

This evaluation was the first study estimating influenza burden in Romania. We found that during each influenza season, a substantial number of persons in Romania suffer from influenza-related ILI or are hospitalized due to influenza-associated SARI.

Implementation of Alere i Influenza A & B point of care test for the diagnosis of influenza in an ED

STUDY OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to evaluate the impact of implementing rapid point-of-care testing (POCT) with the Alere i Influenza A & B in an emergency department (ED) during an influenza epidemic.

METHODS

Direct nasal swabs were prospectively collected following the physical examination of patients aged >18years who presented to the ED of a tertiary hospital in France with influenza-like illness (ILI) symptoms (N=301) between February 1st and March 31st, 2016, which coincided with an influenza epidemic. Laboratory-based testing (standard of care) was used to obtain a diagnosis in February 2016 (pre-POCT cohort) and positive results were confirmed using polymerase chain reaction. The primary endpoint was patient time in the ED.

RESULTS

A total of 169 and 132 patients participated in the pre-POCT phase and POCT phase respectively. A significantly higher proportion of patients received a positive diagnosis in the POCT cohort compared with the pre-POCT cohort (31% versus 5.3%, P<0.01). Mean time spent in the ED and hospitalization rate were significantly lower in the POCT cohort (6.06h versus 4.15h, P=0.03, and 44.4% versus 9.7%, P=0.02, respectively). Despite similar rates in the prescription of antibiotics and antiviral therapies, the proportion of patients who were referred for additional tests was significantly lower in the POCT cohort (78.1% versus 62.1%, P=0.003, and 80.5% versus 63.6%, P=0.01, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

The Alere i Influenza A & B POCT reduced the length of stay in ED, the hospitalization rates, and the number of additional diagnostic tests compared with standard of care testing.

Translation of the UK Pediatric Influenza Vaccination Programme in Primary Schools to 13 European Countries Using a Dynamic Transmission Model

Objectives: To simulate the impact of a pediatric influenza vaccination programme using quadrivalent live attenuated influenza vaccine (QLAIV) in Europe by applying coverage rates achieved in the United Kingdom during the 2014-2015 season and to compare the model outcomes to the UK results. Methods: We used a deterministic, age-structured, dynamic transmission model adapted to the demography, contact patterns and influenza incidence of 13 European countries, with a 10-year horizon. The reference strategy was the unchanged country-specific coverage rate, using quadrivalent inactivated vaccine (assumed efficacy against infection from 45% in 1-year-old children to 60% in healthy adults). In the evaluated strategy, 56.8% of 5-10-year-old children were additionally vaccinated with QLAIV (assumed efficacy 80%), as was the case in 2014-2015 in the United Kingdom's primary school pilot areas. Symptomatic influenza cases and associated medical resources (primary care consultations [PCC], hospitalization, intensive care unit [ICU] admissions) were calculated. The evaluated versus reference strategies were compared using odds ratios (ORs) for PCC in the target (aged 5-10-years) and non-target adult (aged >17 years) populations as well as number needed to vaccinate (NNV) with QLAIV to avert one PCC, hospitalization or ICU admission. Model outcomes, averaged over 10 seasons, were compared with published real-life data from the United Kingdom for the 2014-2015 season. Results: Over 13 countries and 10 years, the evaluated strategy prevented 32.8 million of symptomatic influenza cases (172.3 vs 205.2 million). The resulting range of ORs for PCC was 0.18-0.48 among children aged 5-10-years, and the published OR in the United Kingdom was 0.06 (95% confidence interval [0.01; 0.62]). In adults, the range of ORs for PCC was 0.60-0.91 (UK OR=0.41 [0.19; 0.86]). NNV ranges were 6-19 per averted PCC (UK NNV=16), 530-1524 per averted hospitalization (UK NNV=317) and 5298-15 241 per averted ICU admission (UK NNV=2205). Conclusions: Across a range of European countries, our model shows the beneficial direct and indirect impact of a paediatric vaccination programme using QLAIV in primary school-aged children, consistent with what was observed during a single season in the United Kingdom. Recommendations for the implementation of pediatric vaccination programmes are, therefore, supported in Europe.

Direct and Indirect Protection with Pediatric Quadrivalent Live-Attenuated Influenza Vaccination in Europe Estimated by a Dynamic Transmission Model

Objectives: To estimate the public health impact of annual vaccination of children with a quadrivalent live-attenuated influenza vaccine (QLAIV) across Europe. Methods: A deterministic, age-structured, dynamic model was used to simulate influenza transmission across 14 European countries, comparing current vaccination coverage using a quadrivalent inactivated vaccine (QIV) to a scenario whereby vaccination coverage was extended to 50% of 2-17 year-old children, using QLAIV. Differential equations described demographic changes, exposure to infectious individuals, recovery and immunity dynamics. For each country, the basic reproduction number (R0) was calibrated to published influenza incidence statistics. Assumed vaccine efficacy for children was 80% (QLAIV) and 59% (QIV). Symptomatic cases cumulated over 10 years were calculated per 100 000 person-years. One-way sensitivity analyses were conducted on QLAIV efficacy in 7-17 year-olds (59% instead of 80%), durations of natural (±3 years; base case: 6, 12 years for influenza A, B respectively) and QLAIV vaccine-induced immunity (100% immunity loss after 1 season; base case: 30%), and R0 (+/-10% around all-year average value). Results: Across countries, annual QLAIV vaccination additionally prevents 1366-3604 symptomatic cases per 100 000 population (average 2495 /100 000, ie, a reduction of 47.6% of the cases which occur in the reference scenario with QIV vaccination only). Among children (2-17 years), QLAIV prevents 551-1555 cases per 100 000 population (average 990 /100 000, ie, 67.2% of current cases). Among adults, QLAIV indirectly prevents 726-2047 cases per 100 000 population (average 1466 /100 000, ie, 40.0% of current cases). The most impactful drivers of total protection were duration of natural immunity against influenza A, R0 and QLAIV immunity duration and efficacy. In all evaluated scenarios, there was a large direct and even larger indirect protection compared with the reference scenario. Conclusions: The model highlights direct and indirect protection benefits when vaccinating healthy children with QLAIV in Europe, across a range of demographic structures, contact patterns and vaccination coverage rates.

Viral pathogens among elderly people with acute respiratory infections in Shanghai, China: Preliminary results from a laboratory-based surveillance, 2012-2015

Acute respiratory infections (ARIs), with viral pathogens as the major contributors, are the most common illnesses worldwide, and increase the morbidity and mortality among the elderly population. The clinical and pathological features of elderly people with ARIs need to be identified for disease intervention. From January 1, 2012 through December 31, 2015, respiratory specimens from patients above 60 years old with ARIs were collected from the outpatient and inpatient settings of six sentinel hospitals in Pudong New Area. Each specimen was tested via multiplex polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for eight target viral etiologies including influenza, human rhinovirus (HRV), human para‐influenza virus (PIV), adenovirus (ADV), respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), human metapneumovirus (hMPV), human coronavirus (hCoVs), and human bocavirus (hBoV). A total of 967 elderly patients with ARIs were enrolled, including 589 (60.91%) males, and the median age was 73 years old. 306 (31.64%) patients were tested positive for any one of the eight viruses, including 276 single infections and 30 co‐infections. Influenza was the predominant virus (14.17%, 137/967), detected from 21.35% (76/356) of the outpatients and 9.98% (61/611) of the inpatients. Influenza infections presented two annual seasonal peaks during winter and summer. Compared with non‐influenza patients, those with influenza were more likely to have fever, cough, sore throat, and fatigue. This study identified influenza as the leading viral pathogen among elderly with ARIs, and two seasonal epidemic peaks were observed in Shanghai. An influenza vaccination strategy needs to be advocated for the elderly population.

Costs associated with influenza-related hospitalization in the elderly

Seasonal influenza epidemics remain a considerable burden in adults, especially in those at higher risk of complications. The aim of this study was to determine the costs associated with influenza-related hospitalization in patients aged ≥65 y admitted to 20 hospitals from 7 Spanish regions during the 2013-14 and 2014-15 influenza seasons. Bivariate analysis was used to compare costs in vaccinated and unvaccinated cases. Costs were calculated according to the Spanish National Health System diagnosis-related group tables for influenza and other respiratory system conditions (GRD 89 and GRD 101). A total of 728 confirmed influenza cases were recorded: 52.9% were male, 46.7% were aged 75-84 years, and 49.3% received influenza vaccine ≥15 d prior to hospital admission. Influenza-related mean hospitalization costs (MHC) were € 1,184,808 in unvaccinated and € 1,152,333 in vaccinated cases (2.75% lower). Influenza vaccination showed significant protection against ICU admission (OR 0.35, 95%CI 0.21-0.59; p < 0001); mechanical ventilation (OR 0.56, 95%CI 0.39-0.80; p = 0.002); secondary bacterial pneumonia (OR 0.61, 95%CI 0.39-0.98; p = 0.04) and a higher degree of dependence (OR 0.74, 95%CI 0.55-0.99; p = 0.04). No association was observed for the Charlson comorbidity index or the mean hospital stay. Although influenza vaccination of the elderly may not achieve significant savings in mean hospitalization costs, it may lessen the degree of severity and avoid complications.

Southern Hemisphere Influenza and Vaccine Effectiveness Research and Surveillance

The 2009 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic highlighted the need for improved scientific knowledge to support better pandemic preparedness and seasonal influenza control. The Southern Hemisphere Influenza and Vaccine Effectiveness Research and Surveillance (SHIVERS) project, a 5-year (2012–2016) multiagency and multidisciplinary collaboration, aimed to measure disease burden, epidemiology, aetiology, risk factors, immunology, effectiveness of vaccination and other prevention strategies for influenza and other respiratory infectious diseases of public health importance. Two active, prospective, population-based surveillance systems were established for monitoring influenza and other respiratory pathogens among those hospitalized patients with acute respiratory illness and those enrolled patients seeking consultations at sentinel general practices. In 2015, a sero-epidemiological study will use a sample of patients from the same practices. These data will provide a full picture of the disease burden and risk factors from asymptomatic infections to severe hospitalized disease and deaths and related economic burden. The results during the first 2 years (2012–2013) provided scientific evidence to (a) support a change to NZ's vaccination policy for young children due to high influenza hospitalizations in these children; (b) contribute to the revision of the World Health Organization's case definition for severe acute respiratory illness for global influenza surveillance; and (c) contribute in part to vaccine strain selection using vaccine effectiveness assessment in the prevention of influenza-related consultations and hospitalizations. In summary, SHIVERS provides valuable international platforms for supporting seasonal influenza control and pandemic preparedness, and responding to other emerging/endemic respiratory-related infections.

Stagnating Low Influenza Vaccine Coverage Rates in the Polish Elderly Population in 2008-2013

Although annual vaccination is the most effective way of preventing the disease and its severe outcomes, influenza vaccine coverage rates have always been at suboptimal levels in Poland. A retrospective analysis was conducted on influenza vaccine coverage rates among patients older than 65 years at local and national levels. Influenza vaccine coverage rates among the elderly in the capital city of Warsaw ranged from 20.5% in 2013 to 31.5% in 2010 and these rates were higher than those reported at the national level (from 7.6% in 2012 to 11.3% in 2009). At a local level the proportion of vaccines given to the elderly compared to all vaccinated individuals varied from 40 to 52% which was comparable to the proportions reported at the national level (37-48.5%). 69% of the elderly were only vaccinated once during the observation period, and only 0.5% of them repeated the vaccination in each subsequent year. The chance of being vaccinated against influenza more than once was statistically higher among women than men (OR 4.9; 95% CI 4.2-5.8). Influenza vaccine coverage rates are low at both local and national levels and ought to be improved in Poland in future.