Incidence of plague associated with increased winter-spring precipitation in New Mexico

Ecologic, Geoclimatic, and Genomic Factors Modulating Plague Epidemics in Primary Natural Focus, Brazil

Plague is a deadly zoonosis that still poses a threat in many regions of the world. We combined epidemiologic, host, and vector surveillance data collected during 1961-1980 from the Araripe Plateau focus in northeastern Brazil with ecologic, geoclimatic, and Yersinia pestis genomic information to elucidate how these factors interplay in plague activity. We identified well-delimited plague hotspots showing elevated plague risk in low-altitude areas near the foothills of the plateau's concave sectors. Those locations exhibited distinct precipitation and vegetation coverage patterns compared with the surrounding areas. We noted a seasonal effect on plague activity, and human cases linearly correlated with precipitation and rodent and flea Y. pestis positivity rates. Genomic characterization of Y. pestis strains revealed a foundational strain capable of evolving into distinct genetic variants, each linked to temporally and spatially constrained plague outbreaks. These data could identify risk areas and improve surveillance in other plague foci within the Caatinga biome.

ABIOTIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC DRIVERS OF FLEA PARASITISM ON DEER MICE IN A RECOVERING MIXED-CONIFER FOREST A DECADE POSTFIRE

With the intensity and frequency of wildfires increasing rapidly, the need to study the ecological effects of these wildfires is also growing. An understudied aspect of fire ecology is the effect fires have on parasite-host interactions, including ectoparasites that might be pathogen vectors. Although some studies have examined the impacts of fire on ticks, studies on other ectoparasites, including pathogen vectors, are rare. To help address this knowledge gap, we examined the abiotic and biotic factors that predict the likelihood and extent of parasitism of deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus) by fleas within a landscape of unburned and recovering burned (>9 yr postfire) mixed conifer forests. We sampled 227 individual deer mice across 27 sites within the Jemez Mountains of northern New Mexico in 2022 and quantified measures of parasitism by fleas (primarily Aetheca wagneri). These sites were distributed in both unburned areas (n = 15) and recovering burned areas (n = 12), with the latter derived from 2 large fires, the Las Conchas fire (2011) and the Thompson Ridge fire (2013). Using these data, we tested for differences in prevalence, mean abundance, and mean intensity of fleas on deer mice, focusing on the predictive importance of host sex and fire history. We also created generalized linear mixed-effects models to investigate the best host and environmental predictors of parasitism by fleas. Approximately a decade postfire, we found minimal evidence to suggest that fire history influenced either the presence or intensity of fleas on deer mice. Rather, at the current forest-regeneration stage, the extent of parasitism by fleas was best predicted by measures of host sex, body condition, and the trapline's ability to accumulate water, as measured through topography. As host body condition increased, the probability of males being parasitized increased, whereas the opposite pattern was seen for females. Male mice also had significantly greater flea loads. Among potential abiotic predictors, the topographic wetness index or compound topographic index (a proxy for soil moisture) was positively related to flea intensity, suggesting larger flea populations in burrows with higher relative humidity. In summary, although fire may potentially have short-term impacts on the likelihood and extent of host parasitism by fleas, in this recovering study system, host characteristics and topographic wetness index are the primary predictors of parasitism by fleas.

Relationships Between Meteorological Factors and Mongolian Gerbils and Its Flea Burdens - Xilingol League, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China, 2012-2021

Introduction

Plague is a significant global infectious disease, its spread is linked to host and flea populations. Meteorological conditions can impact flea populations and host densities, hence influencing plague outbreaks. Investigating the connection between meteorological factors, flea populations, and rodent densities in Inner Mongolia's natural plague foci can aid in predicting and managing plague outbreaks.

Methods

Monthly data on flea index, rodent density, meteorological factors, and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) were collected for the study area. Generalized additive modeling (GAM) was used to analyze the non-linear and lag effects of meteorological factors on flea index and rodent density. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was employed to investigate the relationships among meteorological factors, NDVI, flea index, and rodent density.

Results

GAM analysis revealed that temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, and NDVI had significant linear, non-linear, and time-lagged impacts on the density of Mongolian gerbils and the flea index. SEM analysis indicated that meteorological factors could directly influence the density and flea index of Mongolian gerbils, or indirectly impact NDVI, subsequently influencing gerbil density and the flea index.

Conclusions

Meteorological factors primarily influence gerbil density and flea index indirectly by affecting NDVI and the relationship between flea index and gerbil density. This study offers additional support for the significance of meteorological factors and NDVI in influencing the vector-rodent system, offering valuable insights for predicting and managing plague outbreaks.

Seroprevalence, Blood Chemistry, and Patterns of Canine Parvovirus, Distemper Virus, Plague, and Tularemia in Free-Ranging Coyotes (Canis latrans) in Northern New Mexico, USA

Wildlife diseases have implications for ecology, conservation, human health, and health of domestic animals. They may impact wildlife health and population dynamics. Exposure rates of coyotes (Canis latrans) to pathogens such as Yersinia pestis, the cause of plague, may reflect prevalence rates in both rodent prey and human populations. We captured coyotes in north-central New Mexico during 2005-2008 and collected blood samples for serologic surveys. We tested for antibodies against canine distemper virus (CDV, Canine morbillivirus), canine parvovirus (CPV, Carnivore protoparvovirus), plague, tularemia (Francisella tularensis), and for canine heartworm (Dirofilaria immitis) antigen. Serum biochemistry variables that fell outside reference ranges were probably related to capture stress. We detected antibodies to parvovirus in 32/32 samples (100%), and to Y. pestis in 26/31 (84%). More than half 19/32 (59%) had antibodies against CDV, and 5/31 (39%) had antibodies against F. tularensis. We did not detect any heartworm antigens (n = 9). Pathogen prevalence was similar between sexes and among the three coyote packs in the study area. Parvovirus exposure appeared to happen early in life, and prevalence of antibodies against CDV increased with increasing age class. Exposure to Y. pestis and F. tularensis occurred across all age classes. The high coyote seroprevalence rates observed for CPV, Y. pestis, and CDV may indicate high prevalence in sympatric vertebrate populations, with implications for regional wildlife conservation as well as risk to humans via zoonotic transmission.

Remotely sensed localised primary production anomalies predict the burden and community structure of infection in long-term rodent datasets

The increasing frequency and cost of zoonotic disease emergence due to global change have led to calls for the primary surveillance of wildlife. This should be facilitated by the ready availability of remotely sensed environmental data, given the importance of the environment in determining infectious disease dynamics. However, there has been little evaluation of the temporal predictiveness of remotely sensed environmental data for infection reservoirs in vertebrate hosts due to a deficit of corresponding high-quality long-term infection datasets. Here we employ two unique decade-spanning datasets for assemblages of infectious agents, including zoonotic agents, in rodents in stable habitats. Such stable habitats are important, as they provide the baseline sets of pathogens for the interactions within degrading habitats that have been identified as hotspots for zoonotic emergence. We focus on the enhanced vegetation index (EVI), a measure of vegetation greening that equates to primary productivity, reasoning that this would modulate infectious agent populations via trophic cascades determining host population density or immunocompetence. We found that EVI, in analyses with data standardised by site, inversely predicted more than one-third of the variation in an index of infectious agent total abundance. Moreover, in bipartite host occupancy networks, weighted network statistics (connectance and modularity) were linked to total abundance and were also predicted by EVI. Infectious agent abundance and, perhaps, community structure are likely to influence infection risk and, in turn, the probability of transboundary emergence. Thus, the present results, which were consistent in disparate forest and desert systems, provide proof-of-principle that within-site fluctuations in satellite-derived greenness indices can furnish useful forecasting that could focus primary surveillance. In relation to the well-documented global greening trend of recent decades, the present results predict declining infection burden in wild vertebrates in stable habitats; but if greening trends were to be reversed, this might magnify the already upwards trend in zoonotic emergence.

Yersinia pestis and Plague: some knowns and unknowns

Since its first identification in 1894 during the third pandemic in Hong Kong, there has been significant progress of understanding the lifestyle of Yersinia pestis, the pathogen that is responsible for plague. Although we now have some understanding of the pathogen's physiology, genetics, genomics, evolution, gene regulation, pathogenesis and immunity, there are many unknown aspects of the pathogen and its disease development. Here, we focus on some of the knowns and unknowns relating to Y. pestis and plague. We notably focus on some key Y. pestis physiological and virulence traits that are important for its mammal-flea-mammal life cycle but also its emergence from the enteropathogen Yersinia pseudotuberculosis. Some aspects of the genetic diversity of Y. pestis, the distribution and ecology of plague as well as the medical countermeasures to protect our population are also provided. Lastly, we present some biosafety and biosecurity information related to Y. pestis and plague.

Environmental suitability of Yersinia pestis and the spatial dynamics of plague in the Qinghai Lake region, China

Plague, a highly infectious disease caused by Yersinia pestis, has killed millions of people in history and is still active in the natural foci of the world nowadays. Understanding the spatiotemporal patterns of plague outbreaks in history is critically important, as it may help facilitate the prevention and control for potential future outbreaks. This study's objective was to estimate the effect of the topography, vegetation, climate, and other environmental factors on the Y. pestis ecological niche. A maximum entropy algorithm spatially modelled plague occurrence data from 2004-2018 and the environmental variables to evaluate the contribution of the variables to the distribution of Y. pestis. Our results found that the average minimum temperature in September (-8 °C to +5 °C) and the sheep population density (250 sheep per km2) were influential in characterising the niche. The rim of Qinghai Lake showed more favourable conditions for Y. pestis presence than other areas within the study area. Identifying various factors will assist any future modelling efforts. Our suitability map identifies hotspots and will help public health officials in resource allocation in their quest to abate future plague outbreaks.

Potential Effects of Environmental Conditions on Prairie Dog Flea Development and Implications for Sylvatic Plague Epizootics

Fleas are common ectoparasites of vertebrates worldwide and vectors of many pathogens causing disease, such as sylvatic plague in prairie dog colonies. Development of fleas is regulated by environmental conditions, especially temperature and relative humidity. Development rates are typically slower at low temperatures and faster at high temperatures, which are bounded by lower and upper thresholds where development is reduced. Prairie dogs and their associated fleas (mostly Oropsylla spp) live in burrows that moderate outside environmental conditions, remaining cooler in summer and warmer in winter. We found burrow microclimates were characterized by stable daily temperatures and high relative humidity, with temperatures increasing from spring through summer. We previously showed temperature increases corresponded with increasing off-host flea abundance. To evaluate how changes in temperature could affect future prairie dog flea development and abundance, we used development rates of O. montana (a species related to prairie dog fleas), determined how prairie dog burrow microclimates are affected by ambient weather, and combined these results to develop a predictive model. Our model predicts burrow temperatures and flea development rates will increase during the twenty-first century, potentially leading to higher flea abundance and an increased probability of plague epizootics if Y. pestis is present.

Broad-scale climate variation drives the dynamics of animal populations: a global multi-taxa analysis

Climate is a major extrinsic factor affecting the population dynamics of many organisms. The Broad-Scale Climate Hypothesis (BSCH) was proposed by Elton to explain the large-scale synchronous population cycles of animals, but the extent of support and whether it differs among taxa and geographical regions is unclear. We reviewed publications examining the relationship between the population dynamics of multiple taxa worldwide and the two most commonly used broad-scale climate indices, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Our review and synthesis (based on 561 species from 221 papers) reveals that population changes of mammals, birds and insects are strongly affected by major oceanic shifts or irregular oceanic changes, particularly in ENSO- and NAO-influenced regions (Pacific and Atlantic, respectively), providing clear evidence supporting Elton's BSCH. Mammal and insect populations tended to increase during positive ENSO phases. Bird populations tended to increase in positive NAO phases. Some species showed dual associations with both positive and negative phases of the same climate index (ENSO or NAO). These findings indicate that some taxa or regions are more or less vulnerable to climate fluctuations and that some geographical areas show multiple weather effects related to ENSO or NAO phases. Beyond confirming that animal populations are influenced by broad-scale climate variation, we document extensive patterns of variation among taxa and observe that the direct biotic and abiotic mechanisms for these broad-scale climate factors affecting animal populations are very poorly understood. A practical implication of our research is that changes in ENSO or NAO can be used as early signals for pest management and wildlife conservation. We advocate integrative studies at both broad and local scales to unravel the omnipresent effects of climate on animal populations to help address the challenge of conserving biodiversity in this era of accelerated climate change.

Plague risk in the western United States over seven decades of environmental change

After several pandemics over the last two millennia, the wildlife reservoirs of plague (Yersinia pestis) now persist around the world, including in the western United States. Routine surveillance in this region has generated comprehensive records of human cases and animal seroprevalence, creating a unique opportunity to test how plague reservoirs are responding to environmental change. Here, we test whether animal and human data suggest that plague reservoirs and spillover risk have shifted since 1950. To do so, we develop a new method for detecting the impact of climate change on infectious disease distributions, capable of disentangling long-term trends (signal) and interannual variation in both weather and sampling (noise). We find that plague foci are associated with high-elevation rodent communities, and soil biochemistry may play a key role in the geography of long-term persistence. In addition, we find that human cases are concentrated only in a small subset of endemic areas, and that spillover events are driven by higher rodent species richness (the amplification hypothesis) and climatic anomalies (the trophic cascade hypothesis). Using our detection model, we find that due to the changing climate, rodent communities at high elevations have become more conducive to the establishment of plague reservoirs-with suitability increasing up to 40% in some places-and that spillover risk to humans at mid-elevations has increased as well, although more gradually. These results highlight opportunities for deeper investigation of plague ecology, the value of integrative surveillance for infectious disease geography, and the need for further research into ongoing climate change impacts.

Climate change and zoonoses: A review of the current status, knowledge gaps, and future trends

Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs), especially those with zoonotic potential, are a growing threat to global health, economy, and safety. The influence of global warming and geoclimatic variations on zoonotic disease epidemiology is evident by alterations in the host, vector, and pathogen dynamics and their interactions. The objective of this article is to review the current literature on the observed impacts of climate change on zoonoses and discuss future trends. We evaluated several climate models to assess the projections of various zoonoses driven by the predicted climate variations. Many climate projections revealed potential geographical expansion and the severity of vector-borne, waterborne, foodborne, rodent-borne, and airborne zoonoses. However, there are still some knowledge gaps, and further research needs to be conducted to fully understand the magnitude and consequences of some of these changes. Certainly, by understanding the impact of climate change on zoonosis emergence and distribution, we could better plan for climate mitigation and climate adaptation strategies.

No evidence for enzootic plague within black-tailed prairie dog (Cynomys ludovicianus) populations

Yersinia pestis, causative agent of plague, occurs throughout the western United States in rodent populations and periodically causes epizootics in susceptible species, including black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus). How Y. pestis persists long-term in the environment between these epizootics is poorly understood but multiple mechanisms have been proposed, including, among others, a separate enzootic transmission cycle that maintains Y. pestis without involvement of epizootic hosts and persistence of Y. pestis within epizootic host populations without causing high mortality within those populations. We live-trapped and collected fleas from black-tailed prairie dogs and other mammal species from sites with and without black-tailed prairie dogs in 2004 and 2005 and tested all fleas for presence of Y. pestis. Y. pestis was not detected in 2126 fleas collected in 2004 but was detected in 294 fleas collected from multiple sites in 2005, before and during a widespread epizootic that drastically reduced black-tailed prairie dog populations in the affected colonies. Temporal and spatial patterns of Y. pestis occurrence in fleas and genotyping of Y. pestis present in some infected fleas suggest Y. pestis was introduced multiple times from sources outside the study area and once introduced, was dispersed between several sites. We conclude Y. pestis likely was not present in these black-tailed prairie dog colonies prior to epizootic activity in these colonies. Although we did not identify likely enzootic hosts, we found evidence that deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus) may serve as bridging hosts for Y. pestis between unknown enzootic hosts and black-tailed prairie dogs.

Regional Rodent-Borne Infectious Diseases in North America: What Wilderness Medicine Providers Need to Know

Rodents can transmit infectious diseases directly to humans and other animals via bites and exposure to infectious salivary aerosols and excreta. Arthropods infected while blood-feeding on rodents can also transmit rodent-borne pathogens indirectly to humans and animals. Environmental events, such as wet winters, cooler summers, heavy rains, and flooding, have precipitated regional rodent-borne infectious disease outbreaks; these outbreaks are now increasing with climate change. The objectives of this review are to inform wilderness medicine providers about the environmental conditions that can precipitate rodent-borne infectious disease outbreaks; to describe the regional geographic distributions of rodent-borne infectious diseases in North America; and to recommend prophylactic treatments and effective prevention and control strategies for rodent-borne infectious diseases. To meet these objectives, Internet search engines were queried with keywords to identify scientific articles on outbreaks of the most common regional rodent-borne infectious diseases in North America. Wilderness medicine providers should maintain high levels of suspicion for regional rodent-borne diseases in patients who develop febrile illnesses after exposure to contaminated freshwater after heavy rains or floods and after swimming, rafting, or paddling in endemic areas. Public health education strategies should encourage limiting human contact with rodents; avoiding contact with or safely disposing of rodent excreta; avoiding contact with contaminated floodwaters, especially contact with open wounds; securely containing outdoor food stores; and modifying wilderness cabins and campsites to deter rodent colonization.

Plague transforms positive effects of precipitation on prairie dogs to negative effects

Rodents characteristically benefit from increased precipitation, especially in typically dry habitats; "good years" of high precipitation improve their forage and water balance. However, Yersinia pestis (plague), a flea-borne pathogen of mammals that was introduced to western North America, has the greatest negative impact on at least some species of rodents during years of above-average precipitation. In the absence of plague mitigation, negative effects of plague in wet years might overwhelm the otherwise beneficial effects of increased moisture. In Montana and Utah, USA, where plague now occurs enzootically, we investigated the influence of precipitation on finite rates of annual population change (2000-2005) for 3 species of prairie dogs (Cynomys spp.) in replicated plots treated with deltamethrin dust and in non-treated plots for paired comparisons. There was a significant interaction between precipitation and treatment. When we reduced plague vector fleas, prairie dog visual counts tended to increase with increasing precipitation. Simultaneously, there was a negative relationship between counts and precipitation on paired plots where plague was not managed, suggesting that plague transformed and reversed the otherwise beneficial effect of increased precipitation. Are the good years gone for prairie dogs? Even if the good years are not gone, they are perhaps relatively scarce compared to historic times prior to the invasion of plague. This scenario might apply to other ecosystems and may pose broad conservation challenges in western North America.

The delayed effect of cooling reinforced the NAO-plague connection in pre-industrial Europe

Previous studies on the connection between climate and plague were mostly conducted without considering the influence of large-scale atmospheric circulations and long-term historical observations. The current study seeks to reveal the sophisticated role of climatic control on plague by investigating the combined effect of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and temperature on plague outbreaks in Europe from 1347 to 1760 CE. Moving correlation analysis is applied to explore the non-linear relationship between NAO and plague transmission over time. Also, we apply the cross-correlation function to identify the role of temperature in mediating the NAO-plague connection and the lead-lag relationship in between. Our statistical results show that the pathway from climate change to plague incidence is distinctive in its spatial, temporal, and non-linear patterns. The multi-decadal temperature change exerted a 15-22 years lagged impact on the NAO-plague correlation in different European regions. The NAO-plague correlation in Atlantic-Central Europe primarily remained positive, while the correlation in Mediterranean Europe switched between positive and negative alternately. The modulating effect of temperature over the NAO-plague correlation increases exponentially with the magnitude of the temperature anomaly, but the effect is negligible between 0.3 and -0.3 °C anomaly. Our findings show that a lagged influence from the temperature extremes dominantly controls the correlation between NAO and plague incidence. A forecast from our study suggests that large-scale plague outbreaks are unlikely to happen in Europe if NAO remains at its current positive phase during the earth's future warming.

Yersinia pestis: the Natural History of Plague

The Gram-negative bacterium Yersinia pestis is responsible for deadly plague, a zoonotic disease established in stable foci in the Americas, Africa, and Eurasia. Its persistence in the environment relies on the subtle balance between Y. pestis-contaminated soils, burrowing and nonburrowing mammals exhibiting variable degrees of plague susceptibility, and their associated fleas. Transmission from one host to another relies mainly on infected flea bites, inducing typical painful, enlarged lymph nodes referred to as buboes, followed by septicemic dissemination of the pathogen. In contrast, droplet inhalation after close contact with infected mammals induces primary pneumonic plague. Finally, the rarely reported consumption of contaminated raw meat causes pharyngeal and gastrointestinal plague. Point-of-care diagnosis, early antibiotic treatment, and confinement measures contribute to outbreak control despite residual mortality. Mandatory primary prevention relies on the active surveillance of established plague foci and ectoparasite control. Plague is acknowledged to have infected human populations for at least 5,000 years in Eurasia. Y. pestis genomes recovered from affected archaeological sites have suggested clonal evolution from a common ancestor shared with the closely related enteric pathogen Yersinia pseudotuberculosis and have indicated that ymt gene acquisition during the Bronze Age conferred Y. pestis with ectoparasite transmissibility while maintaining its enteric transmissibility. Three historic pandemics, starting in 541 AD and continuing until today, have been described. At present, the third pandemic has become largely quiescent, with hundreds of human cases being reported mainly in a few impoverished African countries, where zoonotic plague is mostly transmitted to people by rodent-associated flea bites.

The changing triad of plague in Uganda: invasive black rats (Rattus rattus), indigenous small mammals, and their fleas

Rattus rattus was first reported from the West Nile Region of Uganda in 1961, an event that preceded the appearance of the first documented human plague outbreak in 1970. We investigated how invasive R. rattus and native small mammal populations, as well as their fleas, have changed in recent decades. Over an 18-month period, a total of 2,959 small mammals were captured, sampled, and examined for fleas, resulting in the identification of 20 small mammal taxa that were hosts to 5,109 fleas (nine species). Over three-fourths (75.8%) of captured mammals belonged to four taxa: R. rattus, which predominated inside huts, and Arvicanthis niloticus, Mastomys sp., and Crocidura sp., which were more common outside huts. These mammals were hosts for 85.8% of fleas collected, including the efficient plague vectors Xenopsylla cheopis and X. brasiliensis, as well as likely enzootic vectors, Dinopsyllus lypusus and Ctenophthalmus bacopus. Flea loads on small mammals were higher in certain environments in villages with a recent history of plague compared to those that lacked such a history. The significance of these results is discussed in relation to historical data, the initial spread of plague in the WNR and the continuing threat posed by the disease.

Influence of Temperature on Development of Yersinia pestis Foregut Blockage in Xenopsylla cheopis (Siphonaptera: Pulicidae) and Oropsylla montana (Siphonaptera: Ceratophyllidae)

Plague, caused by the flea-transmitted bacterial pathogen Yersinia pestis, is primarily a disease of wild rodents distributed in temperate and tropical zones worldwide. The ability of Y. pestis to develop a biofilm blockage that obstructs the flea foregut proventriculus facilitates its efficient transmission through regurgitation into the host bite site during flea blood sucking. While it is known that temperature influences transmission, it is not well-known if blockage dynamics are similarly in accord with temperature. Here, we determine the influence of the biologically relevant temperatures, 10 and 21°C, on blockage development in flea species, Xenopsylla cheopis (Rothschild) and Oropsylla montana (Baker), respectively, characterized by geographical distribution as cosmopolitan, tropical or endemic, temperate. We find that both species exhibit delayed development of blockage at 10°C. In Y. pestis infected X. cheopis, this is accompanied by significantly lower survival rates and slightly decreased blockage rates, even though these fleas maintain similar rates of persistent infection as at 21°C. Conversely, irrespective of infection status, O. montana withstand 21 and 10°C similarly well and show significant infection rate increases and slightly greater blocking rates at 10 versus 21°C, emphasizing that cooler temperatures are favorable for Y. pestis transmission from this species. These findings assert that temperature is a relevant parameter to consider in assessing flea transmission efficiency in distinct flea species residing in diverse geographical regions that host endemic plague foci. This is important to predict behavioral dynamics of plague regarding epizootic outbreaks and enzootic maintenance and improve timeous implementation of flea control programs.

Drought-mediated changes in black-tailed prairie dog colonies in the Northern Great Plains

Populations of many mammal species living in grassland ecosystems across North America have been reduced greatly over the past 200 years due to conversion of native prairie to human-related uses. Foremost among these species is the black-tailed prairie dog (Cynomys ludovicianus), populations of which have declined an estimated 98% during that time. In addition to anthropogenic factors including plague, black-tailed prairie dog populations can vary in size in response to grazing by native ungulates, fire, and precipitation. Colonies in the Northern Great Plains have expanded and contracted during dry and wet periods, respectively. Drought reduces vegetation height; tall vegetation is known to limit colony expansion, possibly due to increased predation risk. We used mixed-effects models to analyze data sets of colony areas of black-tailed prairie dogs spanning 16–22 years and 983 total colony counts, from 142 unique colonies at Badlands National Park and Wind Cave National Park, South Dakota, United States, and Scotts Bluff National Monument, Nebraska, United States, to relate areal dynamics of colonies over time to total annual precipitation, drought stress, and plague. We also analyzed the relationship between active-burrow densities and precipitation and drought stress using 7 years of data from 271 colony counts at Badlands National Park. Black-tailed prairie dog colonies expanded in response to drought conditions in all three national parks, with colonies in Wind Cave National Park exhibiting a time-delayed response. In addition, colony area was negatively related to total accumulated precipitation for the preceding 12 months for Scotts Bluff National Monument. Active-burrow density at Badlands National Park decreased in response to drought stress with a time lag of 24–36 months. Plague first was reported at Badlands National Park in 2008 and colony areas decreased dramatically and rapidly during plague epizootic events. Our results support observations that black-tailed prairie dog colonies in the Northern Great Plains expand and contract in response to drought stress and wet weather. Furthermore, our findings provide new insights into the role of climate on a keystone species of conservation importance and demonstrate the value of collecting long-term ecological data.

Climate drivers of plague epidemiology in British India, 1898-1949

Plague, caused by Yersinia pestis infection, continues to threaten low- and middle-income countries throughout the world. The complex interactions between rodents and fleas with their respective environments challenge our understanding of human plague epidemiology. Historical long-term datasets of reported plague cases offer a unique opportunity to elucidate the effects of climate on plague outbreaks in detail. Here, we analyse monthly plague deaths and climate data from 25 provinces in British India from 1898 to 1949 to generate insights into the influence of temperature, rainfall and humidity on the occurrence, severity and timing of plague outbreaks. We find that moderate relative humidity levels of between 60% and 80% were strongly associated with outbreaks. Using wavelet analysis, we determine that the nationwide spread of plague was driven by changes in humidity, where, on average, a one-month delay in the onset of rising humidity translated into a one-month delay in the timing of plague outbreaks. This work can inform modern spatio-temporal predictive models for the disease and aid in the development of early-warning strategies for the deployment of prophylactic treatments and other control measures.

An Evaluation of the Flea Index as a Predictor of Plague Epizootics in the West Nile Region of Uganda

Plague is a low incidence flea-borne zoonosis that is often fatal if treatment is delayed or inadequate. Outbreaks occur sporadically and human cases are often preceded by epizootics among rodents. Early recognition of epizootics coupled with appropriate prevention measures should reduce plague morbidity and mortality. For nearly a century, the flea index (a measure of fleas per host) has been used as a measure of risk for epizootic spread and human plague case occurrence, yet the practicality and effectiveness of its use in surveillance programs has not been evaluated rigorously. We sought to determine whether long-term monitoring of the Xenopsylla flea index on hut-dwelling rats in sentinel villages in the plague-endemic West Nile region of Uganda accurately predicted plague occurrence in the surrounding parish. Based on observations spanning ~6 yr, we showed that on average, the Xenopsylla flea index increased prior to the start of the annual plague season and tended to be higher in years when plague activity was reported in humans or rodents compared with years when it was not. However, this labor-intensive effort had limited spatial coverage and was a poor predictor of plague activity within sentinel parishes.

Drought-induced spatio-temporal synchrony of plague outbreak in Europe

Plague synchronously swept across separated regions in Europe throughout history. However, the spatio-temporal synchrony of plague and its driving mechanism have not been thoroughly investigated. In this study, we transformed the historical European plague database spanned 1347-1800 CE into country-level time-series that differentiated large-scale plague outbreak from counted data. We found that there are 74 years in which two or more countries in our study region (UK, France, Germany, Spain, and Italy) experienced large-scale plague outbreak in the same year. Our Multivariate Ripley's K-function results showed that the onset year and the cessation year of large-scale plague outbreak are synchronized at the 0-23-year and 0-20-year windows, respectively. The temporal association between such synchrony and climatic forcing was further investigated using the Superposed Epoch Analysis, and drought was found to be responsible for the synchrony. Integrating our results with a literature survey, we suggested that prior to the peak of plague, the occurrence of drought and the subsequent reintroduced rainfall dampened both the rodent community and human society and boosted the number of fleas that carried plague. Such a synthesis facilitated the outbreak of plague. At the same time, high temperature associated with such drought also confined the geographic diffusion of the plague. Hence, although continental mega-drought could initiate the synchrony of plague outbreak, the synchrony actually consisted of a number of localized plague outbreak events scattering across different regions in Europe. According to the projected rising trend of drought in terms of its magnitude, duration, and geographic extent, the risk of synchrony of rodent-borne diseases in Europe will be significantly elevated, especially in France, Italy, and Spain.

The Impacts of Climatic Factors and Vegetation on Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome Transmission in China: A Study of 109 Counties

Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a rodent-borne infectious disease caused by hantaviruses. About 90% of global cases were reported in China. We collected monthly data on counts of HFRS cases, climatic factors (mean temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity), and vegetation (normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)) in 109 Chinese counties from January 2002 to December 2013. First, we used a quasi-Poisson regression with a distributed lag non-linear model to assess the impacts of these four factors on HFRS in 109 counties, separately. Then we conducted a multivariate meta-analysis to pool the results at the national level. The results of our study showed that there were non-linear associations between the four factors and HFRS. Specifically, the highest risks of HFRS occurred at the 45th, 30th, 20th, and 80th percentiles (with mean and standard deviations of 10.58 ± 4.52 °C, 18.81 ± 17.82 mm, 58.61 ± 6.33%, 198.20 ± 22.23 at the 109 counties, respectively) of mean temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, and NDVI, respectively. HFRS case estimates were most sensitive to mean temperature amongst the four factors, and the lag patterns of the impacts of these factors on HFRS were heterogeneous. Our findings provide rigorous scientific support to current HFRS monitoring and the development of early warning systems.

Historical and genomic data reveal the influencing factors on global transmission velocity of plague during the Third Pandemic

Quantitative knowledge about which natural and anthropogenic factors influence the global spread of plague remains sparse. We estimated the worldwide spreading velocity of plague during the Third Pandemic, using more than 200 years of extensive human plague case records and genomic data, and analyzed the association of spatiotemporal environmental factors with spreading velocity. Here, we show that two lineages, 2.MED and 1.ORI3, spread significantly faster than others, possibly reflecting differences among strains in transmission mechanisms and virulence. Plague spread fastest in regions with low population density and high proportion of pasture- or forestland, findings that should be taken into account for effective plague monitoring and control. Temperature exhibited a nonlinear, U-shaped association with spread speed, with a minimum around 20 °C, while precipitation showed a positive association. Our results suggest that global warming may accelerate plague spread in warm, tropical regions and that the projected increased precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere may increase plague spread in relevant regions.

Human plague system associated with rodent diversity and other environmental factors

Plague remains a threat to public health and is considered as a re-emerging infectious disease today. Rodents play an important role as major hosts in plague persistence and driving plague outbreaks in natural foci; however, few studies have tested the association between host diversity in ecosystems and human plague risk. Here we use zero-inflated generalized additive models to examine the association of species richness with human plague presence (where plague outbreaks could occur) and intensity (the average number of annual human cases when they occurred) in China during the Third Pandemic. We also account for transportation network density, annual precipitation levels and human population size. We found rodent species richness, particularly of rodent plague hosts, is positively associated with the presence of human plague. Further investigation shows that species richness of both wild and commensal rodent plague hosts are positively correlated with the presence, but only the latter correlated with the intensity. Our results indicated a positive relationship between rodent diversity and human plague, which may provide suggestions for the plague surveillance system.

Prairie Dogs, Persistent Plague, Flocking Fleas, and Pernicious Positive Feedback

Plague (caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis) is a deadly flea-borne disease that remains a threat to public health nearly worldwide and is particularly disruptive ecologically where it has been introduced. We review hypotheses regarding maintenance and transmission of Y. pestis, emphasizing recent data from North America supporting maintenance by persistent transmission that results in sustained non-epizootic (but variable) rates of mortality in hosts. This maintenance mechanism may facilitate periodic epizootic eruptions "in place" because the need for repeated reinvasion from disjunct sources is eliminated. Resulting explosive outbreaks that spread rapidly in time and space are likely enhanced by synergistic positive feedback (PFB) cycles involving flea vectors, hosts, and the plague bacterium itself. Although PFB has been implied in plague literature for at least 50 years, we propose this mechanism, particularly with regard to flea responses, as central to epizootic plague rather than a phenomenon worthy of just peripheral mention. We also present new data on increases in flea:host ratios resulting from recreational shooting and poisoning as possible triggers for the transition from enzootic maintenance to PFB cycles and epizootic explosions. Although plague outbreaks have received much historic attention, PFB cycles that result in decimation of host populations lead to speculation that epizootic eruptions might not be part of the adaptive evolutionary strategy of Y. pestis but might instead be a tolerated intermittent cost of its modus operandi. We also speculate that there may be mammal communities where epizootics, as we define them, are rare or absent. Absence of plague epizootics might translate into reduced public health risk but does not necessarily equate to inconsequential ecologic impact.

Global Disease Outbreaks Associated with the 2015-2016 El Niño Event

Interannual climate variability patterns associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon result in climate and environmental anomaly conditions in specific regions worldwide that directly favor outbreaks and/or amplification of variety of diseases of public health concern including chikungunya, hantavirus, Rift Valley fever, cholera, plague, and Zika. We analyzed patterns of some disease outbreaks during the strong 2015-2016 El Niño event in relation to climate anomalies derived from satellite measurements. Disease outbreaks in multiple El Niño-connected regions worldwide (including Southeast Asia, Tanzania, western US, and Brazil) followed shifts in rainfall, temperature, and vegetation in which both drought and flooding occurred in excess (14-81% precipitation departures from normal). These shifts favored ecological conditions appropriate for pathogens and their vectors to emerge and propagate clusters of diseases activity in these regions. Our analysis indicates that intensity of disease activity in some ENSO-teleconnected regions were approximately 2.5-28% higher during years with El Niño events than those without. Plague in Colorado and New Mexico as well as cholera in Tanzania were significantly associated with above normal rainfall (p < 0.05); while dengue in Brazil and southeast Asia were significantly associated with above normal land surface temperature (p < 0.05). Routine and ongoing global satellite monitoring of key climate variable anomalies calibrated to specific regions could identify regions at risk for emergence and propagation of disease vectors. Such information can provide sufficient lead-time for outbreak prevention and potentially reduce the burden and spread of ecologically coupled diseases.

Pre-industrial plague transmission is mediated by the synergistic effect of temperature and aridity index

Background

Although the linkage between climate change and plague transmission has been proposed in previous studies, the dominant approach has been to address the linkage with traditional statistical methods, while the possible non-linearity, non-stationarity and low frequency domain of the linkage has not been fully considered. We seek to address the above issue by investigating plague transmission in pre-industrial Europe (AD1347–1760) at both continental and country levels.

Methods

We apply Granger Causality Analysis to identify the casual relationship between climatic variables and plague outbreaks. We then apply Wavelet Analysis to explore the non-linear and non-stationary association between climate change and plague outbreaks.

Results

Our results show that 5-year lagged temperature and aridity index are the significant determinants of plague outbreaks in pre-industrial Europe. At the multi-decadal time scale, there are more frequent plague outbreaks in a cold and arid climate. The synergy of temperature and aridity index, rather than their individual effect, is more imperative in driving plague outbreaks, which is valid at both the continental and country levels.

Conclusions

Plague outbreaks come after cold and dry spells. The multi-decadal climate variability is imperative in driving the cycles of plague outbreaks in pre-industrial Europe. The lagged and multi-decadal effect of climate change on plague outbreaks may be attributable to the complexity of ecological, social, or climate systems, through which climate exerts its influence on plague dynamics. These findings may contribute to improve our understanding of the epidemiology of plague and other rodent-borne or flea-borne infectious diseases in human history.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12879-018-3045-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Interacting effects of land use and climate on rodent-borne pathogens in central Kenya

Understanding the effects of anthropogenic disturbance on zoonotic disease risk is both a critical conservation objective and a public health priority. Here, we evaluate the effects of multiple forms of anthropogenic disturbance across a precipitation gradient on the abundance of pathogen-infected small mammal hosts in a multi-host, multi-pathogen system in central Kenya. Our results suggest that conversion to cropland and wildlife loss alone drive systematic increases in rodent-borne pathogen prevalence, but that pastoral conversion has no such systematic effects. The effects are most likely explained both by changes in total small mammal abundance, and by changes in relative abundance of a few high-competence species, although changes in vector assemblages may also be involved. Several pathogens responded to interactions between disturbance type and climatic conditions, suggesting the potential for synergistic effects of anthropogenic disturbance and climate change on the distribution of disease risk. Overall, these results indicate that conservation can be an effective tool for reducing abundance of rodent-borne pathogens in some contexts (e.g. wildlife loss alone); however, given the strong variation in effects across disturbance types, pathogen taxa and environmental conditions, the use of conservation as public health interventions will need to be carefully tailored to specific pathogens and human contexts.

This article is part of the themed issue ‘Conservation, biodiversity and infectious disease: scientific evidence and policy implications’.

Seroprevalence and spatial distribution dynamics of Yersinia pestis antibodies in dogs and cats from plague foci in the State of Ceará, Northeastern Brazil

INTRODUCTION

In Brazil, the plague is established in several foci located mainly in the northeastern part of the country, where it alternates between active and quiescent periods. These foci in the State of Ceará have high epidemiological importance. In addition to other plague detection activities, plague areas can be monitored through serological surveys of dogs and cats (domestic carnivores), which, following feeding on plague-infected rodents, can develop mild to severe forms of the disease and produce long-lasting antibodies. This study aimed to characterize the circulation dynamics and spatial distribution of Yersinia pestis antibodies in dogs and cats in plague foci areas of Ceará.

METHODS

An ecological study was conducted to analyze the temporal series and spatial distribution of secondary data obtained from domestic carnivore serum surveillance in Ceará's plague areas from 1990 to 2014.

RESULTS

Joinpoint analysis revealed that the overall trend was a reduction in antibody-positive animals. The mean proportion of antibody-positivity during the whole study period was 1.5% (3,023/203,311) for dogs, and 0.7% (426/61,135) for cats, with more than 4% antibody-positivity in dogs in 1997 and 2002. Antibody titers ranging from 1/16 to 1/64 were frequent. Despite fluctuations and a significant reduction, in recent years, there were antibody-positive animals annually throughout the study period, and the localities containing antibody-positive animals increased in number.

CONCLUSION

Yersinia pestis is actively circulating in the study areas, posing a danger to the human population.

A qualitative socio-ecological characterization of the plague threat at Hermelinda Market, La Libertad, Peru

Objective

To identify 1) the main determinants of persistent Yersinia pestis circulation and the associated threat of plague at Hermelinda Market—a large farmers’ market in the city of Trujillo, La Libertad, Peru—and the main actions taken against it, as perceived by local stakeholders; 2) the level of plague risk perception among local actors; and 3) recommended actions to solve the plague threat at the market.

Methods.

A conceptual framework was developed combining a social determinants approach with a complex systems-thinking framework and a knowledge management perspective. A four-step qualitative protocol was carried out (literature review; stakeholder mapping; 37 semi-structured interviews; and coding/analysis). In the fourth step, the data collected in the semi-structured interviews were coded for eight social determinants of health (SDH) variables and analyzed with ATLAS.ti®, and an emerging category analysis was performed to identify risk perception levels.

Results.

Based on analysis by SDH variable, the three main determinants of the plague threat at Hermelinda Market were: 1) local (Trujillo City) governance, 2) infrastructure and basic services, and 3) local culture. According to the same analysis, actions most frequently undertaken against plague involved 1) infrastructure and basic services, 2) social vigilance, and 3) communication. The emerging category analysis indicated local risk perception levels were low, with most of the data pointing to “unhygienic” (“naturalized”) lifestyles and a general lack of awareness about the disease prior to plague-related health concerns at the market as the cause.

Conclusions.

The results indicate that the persistent circulation of Yersinia pestis at Hermelinda Market is not simply a technical matter but more of a managerial and cultural problem. As local governance was found to be a main factor in the persistence of this public health threat, future efforts against it should focus on sustainable inter-sectoral planning and education. Actions taken exclusively by the health sector and the improvement of infrastructure and basic services alone will not be enough to reduce the threat of plague at the market.

Rodent-Pika Parasite Spillover in Western North America

Competition during the Cenozoic expansion of the Rodentia may have contributed to ecological niche reduction of pikas, which are now increasingly under threat as their habitat degrades under global climate change, while some rodents expand their ranges and overlap with pikas. Range overlap carries the possibility of disease spillover. Contemporary North American pikas are cold-adapted and relegated primarily to alpine environments where they subsist on relatively low-quality herbaceous diet. Yet their evolutionary ancestors were distributed geographically even into the subtropics. Here we examine historical and contemporary records of fleas on pikas (Ochotona princeps) from sites at different elevations in the Sierra Nevada and Rocky Mountains and the Pacific Northwest. We calculated indices of diversity from each site and spillover fraction, i.e., the proportion of fleas on pikas that have a preference for rodents. Across this range there are four pika specialist flea species, with no more than two of these per site, and 18 characteristically rodent flea species. Diversity is greatest in the Pacific Northwest and lowest in Montana. Rodent flea spillover onto pikas declines with elevation in the Rocky Mountains. These data provide evidence that rodents and pikas interact enough to allow considerable parasite spillover, and which could be exacerbated as pikas are increasingly stressed by climate change at lower elevations some rodent species expand up-elevation in the face of increasing global warming. With global climate change, both biotic and abiotic niche shrinkage demand our attention.

Precipitation, Climate Change, and Parasitism of Prairie Dogs by Fleas that Transmit Plague

Fleas (Insecta: Siphonaptera) are hematophagous ectoparasites that can reduce the fitness of vertebrate hosts. Laboratory populations of fleas decline under dry conditions, implying that populations of fleas will also decline when precipitation is scarce under natural conditions. If precipitation and hence vegetative production are reduced, however, then herbivorous hosts might suffer declines in body condition and have weakened defenses against fleas, so that fleas will increase in abundance. We tested these competing hypotheses using information from 23 yr of research on 3 species of colonial prairie dogs in the western United States: Gunnison's prairie dog (Cynomys gunnisoni, 1989-1994), Utah prairie dog (Cynomys parvidens, 1996-2005), and white-tailed prairie dog (Cynomys leucurus, 2006-2012). For all 3 species, flea-counts per individual varied inversely with the number of days in the prior growing season with >10 mm of precipitation, an index of the number of precipitation events that might have caused a substantial, prolonged increase in soil moisture and vegetative production. Flea-counts per Utah prairie dog also varied inversely with cumulative precipitation of the prior growing season. Furthermore, flea-counts per Gunnison's and white-tailed prairie dog varied inversely with cumulative precipitation of the just-completed January and February. These results complement research on black-tailed prairie dog (Cynomys ludovicianus) and might have important ramifications for plague, a bacterial disease transmitted by fleas that devastates populations of prairie dogs. In particular, our results might help to explain why, at some colonies, epizootics of plague, which can kill >95% of prairie dogs, are more likely to occur during or shortly after periods of reduced precipitation. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency of droughts in the grasslands of western North America. If so, then climate change might affect the occurrence of plague epizootics among prairie dogs and other mammalian species that associate with them.

A High-Coverage Yersinia pestis Genome from a Sixth-Century Justinianic Plague Victim

The Justinianic Plague, which started in the sixth century and lasted to the mid eighth century, is thought to be the first of three historically documented plague pandemics causing massive casualties. Historical accounts and molecular data suggest the bacterium Yersinia pestis as its etiological agent. Here we present a new high-coverage (17.9-fold) Y. pestis genome obtained from a sixth-century skeleton recovered from a southern German burial site close to Munich. The reconstructed genome enabled the detection of 30 unique substitutions as well as structural differences that have not been previously described. We report indels affecting a lacl family transcription regulator gene as well as nonsynonymous substitutions in the nrdE, fadJ, and pcp genes, that have been suggested as plague virulence determinants or have been shown to be upregulated in different models of plague infection. In addition, we identify 19 false positive substitutions in a previously published lower-coverage Y. pestis genome from another archaeological site of the same time period and geographical region that is otherwise genetically identical to the high-coverage genome sequence reported here, suggesting low-genetic diversity of the plague during the sixth century in rural southern Germany.

Exposure science in an age of rapidly changing climate: challenges and opportunities

Climate change is anticipated to alter the production, use, release, and fate of environmental chemicals, likely leading to increased uncertainty in exposure and human health risk predictions. Exposure science provides a key connection between changes in climate and associated health outcomes. The theme of the 2015 Annual Meeting of the International Society of Exposure Science-Exposures in an Evolving Environment-brought this issue to the fore. By directing attention to questions that may affect society in profound ways, exposure scientists have an opportunity to conduct "consequential science"-doing science that matters, using our tools for the greater good and to answer key policy questions, and identifying causes leading to implementation of solutions. Understanding the implications of changing exposures on public health may be one of the most consequential areas of study in which exposure scientists could currently be engaged. In this paper, we use a series of case studies to identify exposure data gaps and research paths that will enable us to capture the information necessary for understanding climate change-related human exposures and consequent health impacts. We hope that paper will focus attention on under-developed areas of exposure science that will likely have broad implications for public health.

Probing the spatial cluster of Meriones unguiculatus using the nest flea index based on GIS technology

The nest flea index of Meriones unguiculatus is a critical indicator for the prevention and control of plague, which can be used not only to detect the spatial and temporal distributions of Meriones unguiculatus, but also to reveal its cluster rule. This study used global spatial autocorrelation and spatial hot spot detection methods to describe the relationship between different years and the autocorrelation coefficient of nest flea indexes; it also used a spatial detection method and GIS technology to detect the spatial gathered hot spot of Meriones unguiculatus in the epidemic areas. The results of this study showed that (1) there were statistically significant spatial autocorrelations in the nest flea indexes in 2006, 2012, 2013 and 2014. (2) Most of the distribution patterns of Meriones unguiculatus were statistically significant clusters of high values. (3) There were some typical hot spot regions of plague distributed along the Inner Mongolia plateau, north of China. (4) The hot spot regions of plague were gradually stabilized after increasing and decreasing repeatedly. Generally speaking, the number of hot spot regions showed an accelerated increase from 2005 to 2007, decreased slowly from 2007 to 2008, rapidly increased again after decreasing slowly from 2008 to 2010, showed an accelerated decrease from 2010 to 2011, and ultimately were stabilized after rapidly increasing again from 2011 to 2014. (5) The migration period of the hot spot regions was 2-3 years. The epidemic area of plague moved from southwest to east during 2005, 2007, 2008 and 2010, from east to southwest during 2007 and 2008, from east to west during 2010 and 2011, and from Midwest to east during 2011 and 2014. (6) Effective factors, such as temperature, rainfall, DEM, host density, and NDVI, can affect the spatial cluster of Meriones unguiculatus. The results of this study have important implications for exploring the temporal and spatial distribution law and distribution of the hot spot regions of plague, which can reduce the risk of plague, help support the decision making process for the control and prevention of plague, and form a valuable application for plague research.

Navigable rivers facilitated the spread and recurrence of plague in pre-industrial Europe

Infectious diseases have become a rising challenge to mankind in a globalizing world. Yet, little is known about the inland transmission of infectious diseases in history. In this study, we based on the spatio-temporal information of 5559 plague (Yersinia pestis) outbreaks in Europe and its neighboring regions in AD1347–1760 to statistically examine the connection between navigable rivers and plague outbreak. Our results showed that 95.5% of plague happened within 10 km proximity of navigable rivers. Besides, the count of plague outbreak was positively correlated with the width of river and negatively correlated with the distance between city and river. This association remained robust in different regression model specifications. An increase of 100 m in the width of river and a shortening of 1 km distance between city and river resulted in 9 and 0.96 more plague outbreaks in our study period, respectively. Such relationship shows a declining trend over our study period due to the expansion of city and technological advancement in overland transportation. This study elucidates the key role of navigable river in the dissemination of plague in historical Europe.

Zoonoses As Ecological Entities: A Case Review of Plague

As a zoonosis, Plague is also an ecological entity, a complex system of ecological interactions between the pathogen, the hosts, and the spatiotemporal variations of its ecosystems. Five reservoir system models have been proposed: (i) assemblages of small mammals with different levels of susceptibility and roles in the maintenance and amplification of the cycle; (ii) species-specific chronic infection models; (ii) flea vectors as the true reservoirs; (iii) Telluric Plague, and (iv) a metapopulation arrangement for species with a discrete spatial organization, following a source-sink dynamic of extinction and recolonization with naïve potential hosts. The diversity of the community that harbors the reservoir system affects the transmission cycle by predation, competition, and dilution effect. Plague has notable environmental constraints, depending on altitude (500+ meters), warm and dry climates, and conditions for high productivity events for expansion of the transmission cycle. Human impacts are altering Plague dynamics by altering landscape and the faunal composition of the foci and adjacent areas, usually increasing the presence and number of human cases and outbreaks. Climatic change is also affecting the range of its occurrence. In the current transitional state of zoonosis as a whole, Plague is at risk of becoming a public health problem in poor countries where ecosystem erosion, anthropic invasion of new areas, and climate change increase the contact of the population with reservoir systems, giving new urgency for ecologic research that further details its maintenance in the wild, the spillover events, and how it links to human cases.

Evaluation of Yersinia pestis Transmission Pathways for Sylvatic Plague in Prairie Dog Populations in the Western U.S

Sylvatic plague, caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, is periodically responsible for large die-offs in rodent populations that can spillover and cause human mortalities. In the western US, prairie dog populations experience nearly 100% mortality during plague outbreaks, suggesting that multiple transmission pathways combine to amplify plague dynamics. Several alternate pathways in addition to flea vectors have been proposed, such as transmission via direct contact with bodily fluids or inhalation of infectious droplets, consumption of carcasses, and environmental sources of plague bacteria, such as contaminated soil. However, evidence supporting the ability of these proposed alternate pathways to trigger large-scale epizootics remains elusive. Here we present a short review of potential plague transmission pathways and use an ordinary differential equation model to assess the contribution of each pathway to resulting plague dynamics in black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus) and their fleas (Oropsylla hirsuta). Using our model, we found little evidence to suggest that soil contamination was capable of producing plague epizootics in prairie dogs. However, in the absence of flea transmission, direct transmission, i.e., contact with bodily fluids or inhalation of infectious droplets, could produce enzootic dynamics, and transmission via contact with or consumption of carcasses could produce epizootics. This suggests that these pathways warrant further investigation.

Droughts may increase susceptibility of prairie dogs to fleas: incongruity with hypothesized mechanisms of plague cycles in rodents

Plague is a reemerging, rodent-associated zoonosis caused by the flea-borne bacterium Yersinia pestis. As a vector-borne disease, rates of plague transmission may increase when fleas are abundant. Fleas are highly susceptible to desiccation under hot-dry conditions; we posited that their densities decline during droughts. We evaluated this hypothesis with black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus) in New Mexico, June–August 2010–2012. Precipitation was relatively plentiful during 2010 and 2012 but scarce during 2011, the driest spring–summer on record for the northeastern grasslands of New Mexico. Unexpectedly, fleas were 200% more abundant in 2011 than in 2010 and 2012. Prairie dogs were in 27% better condition during 2010 and 2012, and they devoted 287% more time to grooming in 2012 than in 2011. During 2012, prairie dogs provided with supplemental food and water were in 23% better condition and carried 40% fewer fleas. Collectively, these results suggest that during dry years, prairie dogs are limited by food and water, and they exhibit weakened defenses against fleas. Long-term data are needed to evaluate the generality of whether droughts increase flea densities and how changes in flea abundance during sequences of dry and wet years might affect plague cycles in mammalian hosts.

The trophic responses of two different rodent-vector-plague systems to climate change

Plague, the causative agent of three devastating pandemics in history, is currently a re-emerging disease, probably due to climate change and other anthropogenic changes. Without understanding the response of plague systems to anthropogenic or climate changes in their trophic web, it is unfeasible to effectively predict years with high risks of plague outbreak, hampering our ability for effective prevention and control of the disease. Here, by using surveillance data, we apply structural equation modelling to reveal the drivers of plague prevalence in two very different rodent systems: those of the solitary Daurian ground squirrel and the social Mongolian gerbil. We show that plague prevalence in the Daurian ground squirrel is not detectably related to its trophic web, and that therefore surveillance efforts should focus on detecting plague directly in this ecosystem. On the other hand, plague in the Mongolian gerbil is strongly embedded in a complex, yet understandable trophic web of climate, vegetation, and rodent and flea densities, making the ecosystem suitable for more sophisticated low-cost surveillance practices, such as remote sensing. As for the trophic webs of the two rodent species, we find that increased vegetation is positively associated with higher temperatures and precipitation for both ecosystems. We furthermore find a positive association between vegetation and ground squirrel density, yet a negative association between vegetation and gerbil density. Our study thus shows how past surveillance records can be used to design and improve existing plague prevention and control measures, by tailoring them to individual plague foci. Such measures are indeed highly needed under present conditions with prevailing climate change.

Molecular Survey of Bartonella Species and Yersinia pestis in Rodent Fleas (Siphonaptera) From Chihuahua, Mexico

Rodent fleas from northwestern Chihuahua, Mexico, were analyzed for the presence of Bartonella and Yersinia pestis. In total, 760 fleas belonging to 10 species were tested with multiplex polymerase chain reaction analysis targeting the gltA (338-bp) and pla genes (478-bp) of Bartonella and Y. pestis, respectively. Although none was positive for Y. pestis, 307 fleas were infected with Bartonella spp., resulting in an overall prevalence of 40.4%. A logistic regression analysis indicated that the presence of Bartonella is more likely to occur in some flea species. From a subset of Bartonella-positive fleas, phylogenetic analyses of gltA gene sequences revealed 13 genetic variants clustering in five phylogroups (I–V), two of which were matched with known pathogenic Bartonella species (Bartonella vinsonii subsp. arupensis and Bartonella washoensis) and two that were not related with any previously described species or subspecies of Bartonella. Variants in phylogroup V, which were mainly obtained from Meringis spp. fleas, were identical to those reported recently in their specific rodent hosts (Dipodomys spp.) in the same region, suggesting that kangaroo rats and their fleas harbor other Bartonella species not reported previously. Considering the Bartonella prevalence and the flea genotypes associated with known pathogenic Bartonella species, we suggest that analysis of rodent and flea communities in the region should continue for their potential implications for human health. Given that nearby locations in the United States have reported Y. pestis in wild animals and their fleas, we suggest conducting larger-scale studies to increase our knowledge of this bacterium.

Modeling the ecologic niche of plague in sylvan and domestic animal hosts to delineate sources of human exposure in the western United States

Plague has been established in the western United States (US) since 1900 following the West Coast introduction of commensal rodents infected with Yersinia pestis via early industrial shipping. Over the last century, plague ecology has transitioned through cycles of widespread human transmission, urban domestic transmission among commensal rodents, and ultimately settled into the predominantly sylvan foci that remain today where it is maintained alternatively by enzootic and epizootic transmission. While zoonotic transmission to humans is much less common in modern times, significant plague risk remains in parts of the western US. Moreover, risk to some threatened species that are part of the epizootic cycle can be quite substantive. This investigation attempted to predict the risk of plague across the western US by modeling the ecologic niche of plague in sylvan and domestic animals identified between 2000 and 2015. A Maxent machine learning algorithm was used to predict this niche based on climate, altitude, land cover, and the presence of an important enzootic species, Peromyscus maniculatus. This model demonstrated good predictive ability (AUC = 86%) and identified areas of high risk in central Colorado, north-central New Mexico, and southwestern and northeastern California. The presence of P. maniculatus, altitude, precipitation during the driest and wettest quarters, and distance to artificial surfaces, all contributed substantively to maximizing the gain function. These findings add to the known landscape epidemiology and infection ecology of plague in the western US and may suggest locations of particular risk to be targeted for wild and domestic animal intervention.