The 2021 report of the MJA-Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: Australia increasingly out on a limb

Environmental impact of a blood test reduction intervention in adult intensive care units: A before and after quality improvement project

BACKGROUND

Pathology testing is a very common investigation in the intensive care unit (ICU). Many tests are ordered on a routine basis rather than for a specific clinical indication, resulting in potential patient harm and unnecessary financial and environmental costs.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to determine whether a multifaceted intervention based on the principles of education, audit, and feedback can result in a decrease in unnecessary pathology tests without a commensurate increase in adverse patient outcomes and to measure this decrease in terms of the associated reduction in environmental and financial costs.

METHODS

A before and after quality improvement project was conducted between 2017 and 2019 across four ICUs in three 12-month phases, divided according to baseline, intervention implementation, and follow-up. Local clinician champions from each site partnered with the project coordinating centre to develop and implement a range of interventions based on the principles of education, audit, and feedback. Data were collected for the number of pathology tests performed and the clinical characteristics of patients admitted to a participating ICU across the three phases.

RESULTS

A total of 196 323 arterial blood gases and 460 258 other tests across eight categories were performed on the 22 210 patients admitted to participating ICUs during the project. A decrease in testing was observed across all but one category, with the greatest reduction seen in arterial blood gases (31.2% reduction in tests per bed-day). Across all categories, this equated to a mean reduction of 1.8 tCO2e (tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent), a potential estimated total saving of Australian dollar $918 497.50. No increase in adverse clinical outcomes was observed.

CONCLUSION

A multifaceted intervention based on the principles of education, audit, and feedback can produce a significant decrease in the number of unnecessary pathology tests performed. This reduction translates to substantial environmental and financial savings without any associated increase in adverse patient outcomes.

Temporal changes in temperature-related mortality in relation to the establishment of the heat-health alert system in Victoria, Australia

Extreme heat alerts are the most common form of weather forecasting services used in Australia, yet very limited studies have documented their effectiveness in improving health outcomes. This study aimed to examine the temporal changes in temperature-related mortality in relation to the activation of the heat-health alert and response system (HARS) in the State of Victoria, Australia. We examined the relationship between temperatures and mortality using quasi-Poisson regression and the distributed lag non-linear model (dlnm) and compared the temperature-mortality association between the two periods: period 1- prior-HARS (1992-2009) and period 2- post-HARS (2010-2019). Since the HARS heavily weights heatwave effects, we also compared the main effects of heatwave events between the two periods. The heatwaves were defined for three levels, including 3 consecutive days at 97th, 98th, and 99th percentiles. We also controlled the potential confounding effect of seasonality by including a natural cubic B-spline of the day of the year with equally spaced knots and 8 degrees of freedom per year. The exposure-response curve reveals the temperature mortality was reduced in period 2 in comparison with period 1. The relative risk ratios (RRR) of Period 2 over Period 1 were all less than one and gradually decreased from 0.86 (95% CI, 0.72-1.03) to 0.64 (95% CI, 0.33-1.22), and the differences in attributable risk percent increased from 13.2 to 25.3%. The reduction in the risk of heatwave-related deaths decreased by 3.4% (RRp1 1.068, 95% CI, 1.024-1.112 versus RRp2 1.034, 95% CI, 0.986-1.082) and 10% (RRp1 1.16, 95% CI, 1.10-1.22 versus RRp2 1.06, 95% CI, 1.002-1.119) for all groups of people. The study indicated a decrease in heat-related mortality following the operation of HARS in Victoria under extreme heat and high-intensity heatwaves conditions. Further studies could investigate the extent of changes in mortality among populations of differing socio-economic groups during the operation of the heat-health alert system.

All-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality and wildfire-related ozone: a multicountry two-stage time series analysis

BACKGROUND

Wildfire activity is an important source of tropospheric ozone (O3) pollution. However, no study to date has systematically examined the associations of wildfire-related O3 exposure with mortality globally.

METHODS

We did a multicountry two-stage time series analysis. From the Multi-City Multi-Country (MCC) Collaborative Research Network, data on daily all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory deaths were obtained from 749 locations in 43 countries or areas, representing overlapping periods from Jan 1, 2000, to Dec 31, 2016. We estimated the daily concentration of wildfire-related O3 in study locations using a chemical transport model, and then calibrated and downscaled O3 estimates to a resolution of 0·25° × 0·25° (approximately 28 km2 at the equator). Using a random-effects meta-analysis, we examined the associations of short-term wildfire-related O3 exposure (lag period of 0-2 days) with daily mortality, first at the location level and then pooled at the country, regional, and global levels. Annual excess mortality fraction in each location attributable to wildfire-related O3 was calculated with pooled effect estimates and used to obtain excess mortality fractions at country, regional, and global levels.

FINDINGS

Between 2000 and 2016, the highest maximum daily wildfire-related O3 concentrations (≥30 μg/m3) were observed in locations in South America, central America, and southeastern Asia, and the country of South Africa. Across all locations, an increase of 1 μg/m3 in the mean daily concentration of wildfire-related O3 during lag 0-2 days was associated with increases of 0·55% (95% CI 0·29 to 0·80) in daily all-cause mortality, 0·44% (-0·10 to 0·99) in daily cardiovascular mortality, and 0·82% (0·18 to 1·47) in daily respiratory mortality. The associations of daily mortality rates with wildfire-related O3 exposure showed substantial geographical heterogeneity at the country and regional levels. Across all locations, estimated annual excess mortality fractions of 0·58% (95% CI 0·31 to 0·85; 31 606 deaths [95% CI 17 038 to 46 027]) for all-cause mortality, 0·41% (-0·10 to 0·91; 5249 [-1244 to 11 620]) for cardiovascular mortality, and 0·86% (0·18 to 1·51; 4657 [999 to 8206]) for respiratory mortality were attributable to short-term exposure to wildfire-related O3.

INTERPRETATION

In this study, we observed an increase in all-cause and respiratory mortality associated with short-term wildfire-related O3 exposure. Effective risk and smoke management strategies should be implemented to protect the public from the impacts of wildfires.

FUNDING

Australian Research Council and the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.

Multimorbidity and emergency hospitalisations during hot weather

BACKGROUND

People with chronic diseases are a commonly listed heat-vulnerable group in heat-health action plans. While prior research identifies multiple health conditions that may increase vulnerability to ambient heat, there is minimal evidence regarding the implications of multimorbidity (two or more chronic diseases).

METHODS

From the statewide hospital registry of Queensland, Australia, we identified people aged ≥15 years who had emergency hospitalisation(s) between March 2004 and April 2016 and previously had 0, 1, 2, or ≥3 of five chronic diseases: cardiovascular disease, diabetes, mental disorders, asthma/COPD, and chronic kidney disease. We conducted time-stratified case-crossover analyses to estimate the odds ratio of hospitalisations associated with ambient heat exposure in people with different numbers, types, and combinations of chronic diseases. Ambient heat exposure was defined as a 5 °C increase in daily mean temperature above the median.

FINDINGS

There were 2,263,427 emergency hospitalisations recorded (48.7% in males and 51.3% in females). When the mean temperature increased, hospitalisation odds increased with chronic disease number, particularly in older persons (≥65 years), males, and non-indigenous people. For instance, in older persons with 0, 1, 2, or ≥3 chronic diseases, the odds ratios associated with ambient heat exposure were 1.00 (95% confidence interval: 0.96, 1.04), 1.06 (1.02, 1.09), 1.08 (1.02, 1.14), and 1.13 (1.07, 1.19), respectively. Among the chronic diseases, chronic kidney disease, and asthma/COPD, either existing alone, together, or in combination with other diseases, were associated with the highest odds of hospitalisations under ambient heat exposure.

INTERPRETATION

While individuals with multimorbidity are considered in heat-health action plans, this study suggests the need to consider specifically examining them as a distinct and vulnerable subgroup.

FUNDING

Wellcome.

Environmental DNA analysis of airborne poaceae (grass) pollen reveals taxonomic diversity across seasons and climate zones

BACKGROUND

Grasses populate most biogeographical zones, and their diversity influences allergic sensitisation to pollen. Previously, the contribution of different Poaceae subfamilies to airborne pollen has mostly been inferred from historical herbarium records. We recently applied environmental (e)DNA metabarcoding at one subtropical site revealing that successive airborne grass pollen peaks were derived from repeated flowering of Chloridoid and Panicoid grasses over a season. This study aimed to compare spatiotemporal patterns in grass pollen exposure across seasons and climate zones.

METHODS

Airborne pollen concentrations across two austral pollen seasons spanning 2017-2019 at subtropical (Mutdapilly and Rocklea, Queensland) and temperate (Macquarie Park and Richmond, New South Wales) sites, were determined with a routine volumetric impaction sampler and counting by light microscopy. Poaceae rbcL metabarcode sequences amplified from daily pollen samples collected once per week were assigned to subfamily and genus using a ribosomal classifier and compared with Atlas of Living Australia sighting records.

RESULTS

eDNA analysis revealed distinct dominance patterns of grass pollen at various sites: Panicoid grasses prevailed in both subtropical Mutdapilly and temperate Macquarie Park, whilst Chloridoid grasses dominated the subtropical Rocklea site. Overall, subtropical sites showed significantly higher proportion of pollen from Chloridoid grasses than temperate sites, whereas the temperate sites showed a significantly higher proportion of pollen from Pooideae grasses than subtropical sites. Timing of airborne Pooid (spring), Panicoid and Chloridoid (late spring to autumn), and Arundinoid (autumn) pollen were significantly related to number of days from mid-winter. Proportions of eDNA for subfamilies correlated with distributions grass sighting records between climate zones.

CONCLUSIONS

eDNA analysis enabled finer taxonomic discernment of Poaceae pollen records across seasons and climate zones with implications for understanding adaptation of grasslands to climate change, and the complexity of pollen exposure for patients with allergic respiratory diseases.

The impact of extreme heat on older regional and rural Australians: A systematic review

INTRODUCTION

Extreme heat causes a major health burden, especially for older Australians.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the impact of extreme heat on older regional and rural Australians, including clinical presentations, social implications, and health-seeking behaviours and adaptations.

DESIGN

A systematic review and narrative synthesis.

FINDINGS

Ten articles were included in the review with research on this topic limited. Extreme heat causes an increase in mortality and ambulance dispatches for older rural Australians. Social connectedness is negatively affected by extreme heat due to cancellation of events and individuals becoming housebound. Air conditioning is the main cooling mechanism used, although cost is a major concern. Despite this, older rural populations display a depth of knowledge regarding practical behavioural responses to adapt to extreme heat. Studies show older rural Australians do not consider extreme heat to be a threat to health.

DISCUSSION

Further research needs to examine the role extreme heat may play in contributing to experiences of loneliness. Air conditioning cannot be the ultimate solution in responding to extreme heat due to cost and increased carbon emissions. The low-risk perception of extreme heat for older rural people may inform effective heat health warnings and effective use of primary health care in heat-health education. Listening to First Nations knowledge in dealing with heat may provide a powerful mechanism in which to protect health.

CONCLUSION

The extensive health effects of extreme heat highlights the necessity of further research and strengthening of services in preparation for an ageing rural population enduring climate change.

The 2023 report of the MJA-Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: sustainability needed in Australia's health care sector

The MJA-Lancet Countdown on health and climate change in Australia was established in 2017 and produced its first national assessment in 2018 and annual updates in 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022. It examines five broad domains: health hazards, exposures and impacts; adaptation, planning and resilience for health; mitigation actions and health co-benefits; economics and finance; and public and political engagement. In this, the sixth report of the MJA-Lancet Countdown, we track progress on an extensive suite of indicators across these five domains, accessing and presenting the latest data and further refining and developing our analyses. Our results highlight the health and economic costs of inaction on health and climate change. A series of major flood events across the four eastern states of Australia in 2022 was the main contributor to insured losses from climate-related catastrophes of $7.168 billion - the highest amount on record. The floods also directly caused 23 deaths and resulted in the displacement of tens of thousands of people. High red meat and processed meat consumption and insufficient consumption of fruit and vegetables accounted for about half of the 87 166 diet-related deaths in Australia in 2021. Correction of this imbalance would both save lives and reduce the heavy carbon footprint associated with meat production. We find signs of progress on health and climate change. Importantly, the Australian Government released Australia's first National Health and Climate Strategy, and the Government of Western Australia is preparing a Health Sector Adaptation Plan. We also find increasing action on, and engagement with, health and climate change at a community level, with the number of electric vehicle sales almost doubling in 2022 compared with 2021, and with a 65% increase in coverage of health and climate change in the media in 2022 compared with 2021. Overall, the urgency of substantial enhancements in Australia's mitigation and adaptation responses to the enormous health and climate change challenge cannot be overstated. Australia's energy system, and its health care sector, currently emit an unreasonable and unjust proportion of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. As the Lancet Countdown enters its second and most critical phase in the leadup to 2030, the depth and breadth of our assessment of health and climate change will be augmented to increasingly examine Australia in its regional context, and to better measure and track key issues in Australia such as mental health and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander health and wellbeing.

The burden of occupational injury attributable to high temperatures in Australia, 2014-19: a retrospective observational study

OBJECTIVES

To assess the population health impact of high temperatures on workplace health and safety by estimating the burden of heat-attributable occupational injury in Australia.

STUDY DESIGN, SETTING

Retrospective observational study; estimation of burden of occupational injury in Australia attributable to high temperatures during 2014-19, based on Safe Work Australia (work-related traumatic injury fatalities and workers' compensation databases) and Australian Institute of Health and Welfare data (Australian Burden of Disease Study and National Hospital Morbidity databases), and a meta-analysis of climate zone-specific risk data.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Burden of heat-attributable occupational injuries as disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), comprising the numbers of years of life lived with disability (YLDs) and years of life lost (YLLs), nationally, by Köppen-Geiger climate zone, and by state and territory.

RESULTS

During 2014-19, an estimated 42 884 years of healthy life were lost to occupational injury, comprising 39 485 YLLs (92.1%) and 3399 YLDs (7.9%), at a rate of 0.80 DALYs per 1000 workers per year. A total of 967 occupational injury-related DALYs were attributable to heat (2.3% of occupational injury-related DALYs), comprising 890 YLLs (92%) and 77 YLDs (8%). By climate zone, the heat-attributable proportion was largest in the tropical Am (12 DALYs; 3.5%) and Aw zones (34 DALYs; 3.5%); by state and territory, the proportion was largest in New South Wales and Queensland (each 2.9%), which also included the largest numbers of heat-attributable occupational injury-related DALYs (NSW: 379 DALYs, 39% of national total; Queensland: 308 DALYs; 32%).

CONCLUSION

An estimated 2.3% of the occupational injury burden in Australia is attributable to high ambient temperatures. To prevent this burden increasing with global warming, adaptive measures and industry-based policies are needed to safeguard workplace health and safety, particularly in heat-exposed industries, such as agriculture, transport, and construction.

Climate change, environmental extremes, and human health in Australia: challenges, adaptation strategies, and policy gaps

Climate change presents a major public health concern in Australia, marked by unprecedented wildfires, heatwaves, floods, droughts, and the spread of climate-sensitive infectious diseases. Despite these challenges, Australia's response to the climate crisis has been inadequate and subject to change by politics, public sentiment, and global developments. This study illustrates the spatiotemporal patterns of selected climate-related environmental extremes (heatwaves, wildfires, floods, and droughts) across Australia during the past two decades, and summarizes climate adaptation measures and actions that have been taken by the national, state/territory, and local governments. Our findings reveal significant impacts of climate-related environmental extremes on the health and well-being of Australians. While governments have implemented various adaptation strategies, these plans must be further developed to yield concrete actions. Moreover, Indigenous Australians should not be left out in these adaptation efforts. A collaborative, comprehensive approach involving all levels of government is urgently needed to prevent, mitigate, and adapt to the health impacts of climate change.

Climate change and human health in Vietnam: a systematic review and additional analyses on current impacts, future risk, and adaptation

This study aims to investigate climate change's impact on health and adaptation in Vietnam through a systematic review and additional analyses of heat exposure, heat vulnerability, awareness and engagement, and projected health costs. Out of 127 reviewed studies, findings indicated the wider spread of infectious diseases, and increased mortality and hospitalisation risks associated with extreme heat, droughts, and floods. However, there are few studies addressing health cost, awareness, engagement, adaptation, and policy. Additional analyses showed rising heatwave exposure across Vietnam and global above-average vulnerability to heat. By 2050, climate change is projected to cost up to USD1-3B in healthcare costs, USD3-20B in premature deaths, and USD6-23B in work loss. Despite increased media focus on climate and health, a gap between public and government publications highlighted the need for more governmental engagement. Vietnam's climate policies have faced implementation challenges, including top-down approaches, lack of cooperation, low adaptive capacity, and limited resources.

Global issues, local action: exploring local governments use of research in "tackling climate change and its impacts on health" in Victoria, Australia

BACKGROUND

Local government plays an important role in addressing complex public health challenges. While the use of research in this work is important, it is often poorly understood. This study aimed to build knowledge about how research is used by investigating its use by local government authorities (LGAs) in Victoria, Australia in responding to a new legislative requirement to prioritise climate and health in public health planning. The role of collaboration was also explored.

METHODS

Informed by Normalization Process Theory (NPT), this study adopted multiple research methods, combining data from an online survey and face-to-face interviews. Quantitative data were analysed using descriptive statistics; thematic analysis was used to analyse qualitative data.

RESULTS

Participants comprised 15 interviewees, and 46 survey respondents from 40 different LGAs. Research was most commonly accessed via evidence synthesis, and largely used to inform understanding about climate and health. When and how research was used was shaped by contextual factors including legislation, community values and practical limitations of how research needed to be communicated to decision-makers. Collaboration was more commonly associated with research access than use.

CONCLUSIONS

Greater investment in the production and dissemination of localised research, that identifies local issues (e.g. climate risk factors) and is tailored to the communication needs of local audiences is needed to foster more impactful research use in local public health policy.

Projecting Future Climate Impact on National Australian Respiratory-Related Intensive Care Unit Demand

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

A robust climate-health projection model has the potential to improve health care resource allocation. We aim to explore the relationship between Australian intensive care unit (ICU) demand and various measures of the long-lived large-scale climate and to develop a future nationwide climate-health projection model.

METHODS

We investigated patients admitted to ICUs in Australia between January 2003 and December 2019 who were exposed to long-lived large-scale combined climatic measures of temperature and humidity. We analysed the projected demand for respiratory-related ICU average length of stay (in days) per capita (ICU_D/C) with four historical and one future projection dataset. These datasets included: i) Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society adult patient database, ii) Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center gridded global historical population, iii) Australian Bureau of Statistics national historical population, iv) Japanese 55-year Reanalysis historical climate (JRA55), and v) the fifth Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project future climate projections.

RESULTS

148,638 patients with respiratory issues required intensive care between 2003 and 2019. The annual growth in the population density-weighted wet-bulb-globe temperature-a combined measure of temperature and humidity-is strongly correlated with the annual per capita growth ICU_D/C for respiratory-related conditions (r=0.771; p<0.001). This relationship was applied to develop a model projecting future respiratory-related ICU demand with three possible future Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). RCP2.6 (lowest carbon emission climate scenario) showed only a 33.4% increase in Australian ICU_D/C demand by 2090, while the RCP8.5 (highest carbon emission climate scenario) demonstrated almost two-fold higher demand (66.1%) than RCP2.6 by 2090.

CONCLUSIONS

The annual growth in population density-weighted wet-bulb-globe temperature correlates with the annual growth in Australian ICU_D/C for respiratory-related conditions. A model based on possible future climate scenarios can be developed to predict changes in ICU demand in response to CO₂ changes over the coming decades.

Vulnerability of Australia to heatwaves: A systematic review on influencing factors, impacts, and mitigation options

BACKGROUND

Heatwaves have received major attention globally due to their detrimental effects on human health and the environment. The frequency, duration, and severity of heatwaves have increased recently due to changes in climatic conditions, anthropogenic forcing, and rapid urbanization. Australia is highly vulnerable to this hazard. Although there have been an increasing number of studies conducted in Australia related to the heatwave phenomena, a systematic review of heatwave vulnerability has rarely been reported in the literature.

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to provide a systematic and overarching review of the different components of heatwave vulnerability (e.g., exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity) in Australia.

METHODS

A systematic review was conducted using the PRISMA protocol. Peer-reviewed English language articles published between January 2000 and December 2021 were selected using a combination of search keywords in Web of Science, Scopus, and PubMed. Articles were critically analyzed based on three specific heatwave vulnerability components: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

A total of 107 articles meeting all search criteria were chosen. Although there has been an increasing trend of heat-related studies in Australia, most of these studies have concentrated on exposure and adaptive capacity components. Evidence suggests that the frequency, severity, and duration of heatwaves in Australian cities has been increasing, and that this is likely to continue under current climate change scenarios. This study noted that heatwave vulnerability is associated with geographical and climatic factors, space, time, socioeconomic and demographic factors, as well as the physiological condition of people. Various heat mitigation and adaptation measures implemented around the globe have proven to be efficient in reducing the impacts of heatwaves.

CONCLUSION

This study provides increased clarity regarding the various drivers of heatwave vulnerability in Australia. Such knowledge is crucial in informing extreme heat adaptation and mitigation planning.

Climate change and Australian general practice vocational education: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

Climate change is a rapidly progressing threat to global health and well-being. For general practitioners (GPs) currently in training, the effects of climate change on public health will shape their future professional practice We aimed to establish the prevalence and associations of Australian GP registrars' (trainees') perceptions of climate change as it relates to public health, education, and workplaces.

METHODS

A cross-sectional questionnaire-based study of GP registrars of three Australian training organizations. The questionnaire assessed attitudes regarding adverse health effects of climate change (over the next 10-20 years), and agreement with statements on (i) integrating health impacts of climate change into GP vocational training, and (ii) GPs' role in making general practices environmentally sustainable.

RESULTS

Of 879 registrars who participated (response rate 91%), 50.4% (95% CI 46.8%, 54.0%) perceived a large or very large future health effect of climate change on their patients, and 61.8% (95% CI 58.6%, 65.0%) agreed that climate health impacts should be integrated within their education programme. 77.8% (95% CI 74.9%, 80.4%) agreed that GPs should have a leadership role in their practices' environmental sustainability. Multivariable associations of these attitudes included female gender, training region, and (for the latter two outcomes) perceptions of future impact of climate change on patient health.

CONCLUSIONS

GP registrars are motivated to receive climate health education and engage in environmentally sustainable practice. This may primarily reflect concern for future practice and patient care.

Perceptions of air quality and concern for health in relation to long-term air pollution exposure, bushfires, and COVID-19 lockdown: A before-and-after study

BACKGROUND

Air pollution is a major health burden and the leading environmental risk factor for non-communicable diseases worldwide. People's perceptions and concerns about air pollution are important as they may predict protective behaviour or support for climate change mitigation policies.

METHODS

This repeat cross-sectional study uses survey data collected from participants in Sydney, Australia in September-November 2019 (n = 1,647) and October-December 2020 (n = 1,458), before and after the devastating 2019/2020 bushfires and first COVID-19 lockdown restrictions in Sydney in 2020. Participants' perceptions of air quality and concerns for health in relation to air quality were modeled against estimates of annual average NO₂ and PM_2.5 concentrations in their neighbourhood.

RESULTS

Participants in suburbs with higher estimated air pollution concentrations generally perceived poorer air quality and were more concerned for health in relation to air quality. A 5 µg/m³ increase in NO₂ was associated with perceived poorer air quality (OR 1.32, 95%CI 1.18-1.47). A 1 µg/m³ increase in estimated PM_2.5 was associated with perceived poorer air quality (OR 1.37, 95%CI 1.24-1.52) and greater concern for health (OR 1.18, 95%CI 1.05-1.32). Air quality was perceived as better in 2020 than in 2019 in both NO₂ and PM_2.5 models (p<0.001). Air quality concern increased in 2020 in both models.

DISCUSSION

This study provides the first Australian data on the association between estimated air quality exposure and air quality perceptions and concerns, contributing new evidence to inform public health approaches that increase awareness for air pollution and reduce the health burden.

Integrated Climate Action Planning (ICLAP) in Asia-Pacific Cities: Analytical Modelling for Collaborative Decision Making

While climate change has global causations and impacts, there is growing consensus on addressing the 2 °C challenge through local actions. However, at the local level, there is disintegrated knowledge on the following: (a) short-, mid- and long-term climate vulnerability, (b) economy and GHG structures and their future pathways, and (c) useful mitigation and adaptation undertaken elsewhere. We evaluate these gaps through a comprehensive review of scientific literature and policy approaches of urban-climate studies in the Asia-Pacific Region. Based on the research findings, we develop a collaborative research framework of an integrated climate action planning (ICLAP) model for evidence-based decision-making tool. It adopts an innovative methodology integrating knowledge and data from diverse analytics, as follows: (a) spatial: downscaling global/regional climate scenarios to forecast local climate variability (50 km × 50 km) for 2030 (SDG target) and 2050; (b) statistical: a meta-analysis of 49 five-million-plus cities to forecast economic, energy and GHG scenarios; (c) bibliometric: a systematic review of global urban climate interventions from Google Scholar that collectively aid cities on policy inputs for mid-term climate variability, GHG profiles and available solutions at their disposal. We conclude with a discussion on scientific and policy relevance of such a tool in fostering overall urban, regional and global sustainability.