Predictive value of initial triage vital signs for critically ill older adults

FI-lab in the emergency department and adverse outcomes among acutely hospitalized older adults

BACKGROUND

The emergency department is treating a growing number of older patients with frailty, which has been linked to poorer outcomes. Urgency is generally emphasized in the emergency department based on indicators such as triage scores and early warning scores for decision-making. However, this approach may not be sufficient for frail older people. The Frailty Index-laboratory (FI-lab) has been used as a simple assessment tool for frailty, but it may also reflect disease severity and predict adverse outcomes in the emergency care setting. Therefore, we aimed to evaluate the association between FI-lab in the emergency room and adverse outcomes during hospitalization through comparison with assessments using triage and early warning scores.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study conducted in a tertiary hospital. The study included patients aged 65 years or older who were admitted to the general internal medicine ward after being initially evaluated in the emergency department. FI-lab was calculated using 24 laboratory parameters from blood tests. The National Early Warning Score (NEWS), the Japan Triage and Acuity Scale (JTAS), and the modified JTAS were also used as prognostic indicators, and their association with adverse outcomes was compared with that of FI-lab.

RESULTS

In total, 872 patients (mean age, 80.9 years; male, 52.6 %) were analyzed. Patients who died during hospitalization had a higher FI-lab than those who survived. In multiple regression analysis, FI-lab, NEWS, and the modified JTAS were significantly associated with in-hospital death and prolonged length of hospital stay. In contrast, none of these indices were associated with in-hospital falls. The FI-lab was independently associated with the likelihood of discharge to home.

CONCLUSIONS

FI-lab evaluated in the emergency department reflected the severity of illness in acutely hospitalized older adults, similarly to NEWS and JTAS, and was a useful indicator for predicting adverse outcomes. These results may indicate the value of FI-lab for older adults in the acute care setting.

Machine learning in clinical practice: Evaluation of an artificial intelligence tool after implementation

OBJECTIVE

Artificial intelligence (AI) has gradually found its way into healthcare, and its future integration into clinical practice is inevitable. In the present study, we evaluate the accuracy of a novel AI algorithm designed to predict admission based on a triage note after clinical implementation. This is the first of such studies to investigate real-time AI performance in the emergency setting.

METHODS

The novel AI algorithm that predicts admission using a triage note was translated into clinical practice and integrated within St Vincent's Hospital Melbourne's electronic emergency patient management system. The data were collected from 1 January 2021 to 17 August 2022 to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of the AI system after implementation.

RESULTS

A total of 77 125 ED presentations were included. The live AI algorithm has a sensitivity of 73.1% (95% confidence interval 72.5-73.8), specificity of 74.3% (73.9-74.7), positive predictive value of 50% (49.6-50.4) and negative predictive value of 88.7% (88.5-89) with a total accuracy of 74% (73.7-74.3). The accuracy of the system was at the lowest for admission to psychiatric units (34%) and at the highest for gastroenterology and medical admission (84% and 80%, respectively).

CONCLUSION

Our study showed the diagnostic evaluation of a real-time AI clinical decision-support tool became less accurate than the original. Although real-time sensitivity and specificity of the AI tool was still acceptable as a decision-support tool in the ED, we propose that continuous training and evaluation of AI-enabled clinical support tools in healthcare are conducted to ensure consistent accuracy and performance to prevent inadvertent consequences.

Application of Machine Learning Techniques to Development of Emergency Medical Rapid Triage Prediction Models in Acute Care

Given the critical and complex features of medical emergencies, it is essential to develop models that enable prompt and suitable clinical decision-making based on considerable information. Emergency nurses are responsible for categorizing and prioritizing injuries and illnesses on the frontlines of the emergency room. This study aims to create an Emergency Medical Rapid Triage and Prediction Assistance model using electronic medical records and machine learning techniques. Patient information was retrieved from the emergency department of a large regional teaching hospital in Taiwan, and five supervised learning techniques were used to construct classification models for predicting critical outcomes. Of these models, the model using logistic regression had superior prediction performance, with an F1 score of 0.861 and an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.855. The Emergency Medical Rapid Triage and Prediction Assistance model demonstrated superior performance in predicting intensive care and hospitalization outcomes compared with the Taiwan Triage and Acuity Scale and three clinical early warning tools. The proposed model has the potential to assist emergency nurses in executing challenging triage assessments and emergency teams in treating critically ill patients promptly, leading to improved clinical care and efficient utilization of medical resources.

Assessing Physiologic Reserve and Frailty in the Older Emergency Department Patient: Should the Paradigm Change?

Older patients are more vulnerable to acute illness or injury because of reduced physiologic reserve associated with aging. Therefore, their assessment in the emergency department (ED) should include not only vital signs and their baseline values but also changes that reflect physiologic reserve, such as mobility, mental status, and frailty. Combining aggregated vitals sign scores and frailty might improve risk stratification in the ED. Implementing these changes in ED assessment may require the introduction of senior-friendly processes to ensure ED treatment is appropriate to the older patients' immediate discomfort, personal goals, and likely prognosis.

Facilitators and barriers of appropriate and timely initiation of intravenous fluids in patients with sepsis in emergency departments: a consensus development Delphi study

BACKGROUND

Sepsis is a life-threatening medical emergency in which appropriate and timely administration of intravenous fluids to patients with features of hypotension is critical to prevent multi-organ failure and subsequent death. However, compliance with recommended fluid administration is reported to be poor. There is a lack of consensus among emergency clinicians on some of the determinant factors influencing fluid administration in sepsis. Thus, the aim of this study was to identify the level of consensus among key stakeholders in emergency departments regarding the facilitators, barriers, and strategies to improve fluid administration.

METHODS

The modified Delphi questionnaire with 23 statements exploring barriers, facilitators, and strategies to improve fluid administration was developed from the integration of findings from previous phases of the study involving emergency department clinicians. A two-round modified Delphi survey was conducted among key stakeholders with managerial, educational, supervision and leadership responsibilities using a "Reactive Delphi technique" from March 2023 to June 2023. The statements were rated for importance on a 9-point Likert scale. The RAND/UCLA Appropriateness Method (RAM) was used to identify the level of consensus (agreement/disagreement).

RESULTS

Of the 21 panellists who completed Round 1 survey, 18 (86%) also completed Round 2. The panellists rated 9 out of 10 (90%) barriers, 3 out of 4 (75%) facilitators and all 9 (100%) improvement strategies as important. Out of the total 23 statements, 18 (78%) had agreement among the panellists. Incomplete vital signs at triage (Median = 9, IQR 7.25 to 9.00) as a barrier, awareness of importance of fluid administration in sepsis (Median = 9, IQR 8.00 to 9.00) as facilitator and provision of nurse-initiated intravenous fluids (Median = 9, IQR 8.00 to 9.00) as an improvement strategy were the highest rated statements.

CONCLUSION

This is the first Delphi study identifying consensus on facilitators, barriers, and strategies to specifically improve intravenous fluid administration in sepsis in Australia. We identified 18 consensus-based factors associated with appropriate and timely administration of intravenous fluids in sepsis. This study offers empirical evidence to support the implementation of the identified strategies to improve patient outcomes.

End-tidal carbon dioxide measured at emergency department triage outperforms standard triage vital signs in predicting in-hospital mortality and intensive care unit admission

OBJECTIVES

This study assessed the ability of end-tidal carbon dioxide (ETCO2 ) in predicting in-hospital mortality and intensive care unit (ICU) admission compared to standard vital signs at ED triage as well as comparing to measures of metabolic acidosis.

METHODS

This prospective study enrolled adult patients presenting to the ED of a tertiary care Level I trauma center over 30 months. Patients had standard vital signs measured along with exhaled ETCO2 at triage. Outcome measures included in-hospital mortality; ICU admission; and correlations with lactate, sodium bicarbonate (HCO3 ), and anion gap.

RESULTS

There were 1136 patients enrolled and 1091 patients with outcome data available. There were 26 (2.4%) patients who did not survive to hospital discharge. Mean ETCO2 levels were 34 (33-34) in survivors and 22 (18-26) nonsurvivors (p < 0.001). The area under the curve (AUC) for predicting in-hospital mortality for ETCO2 was 0.82 (0.72-0.91). In comparison the AUC for temperature was 0.55 (0.42-0.68), respiratory rate (RR) 0.59 (0.46-0.73), systolic blood pressure (SBP) 0.77 (0.67-0.86), diastolic blood pressure (DBP) 0.70 (0.59-0.81), heart rate (HR) 0.76 (0.66-0.85), and oxygen saturation (SpO2 ) 0.53 (0.40-0.67). There were 64 (6%) patients admitted to the ICU, and the ETCO2 AUC for predicting ICU admission was 0.75 (0.67-0.80). In comparison the AUC for temperature was 0.51, RR 0.56, SBP 0.64, DBP 0.63, HR 0.66, and SpO2 0.53. Correlations between expired ETCO2 and serum lactate, anion gap, and HCO3 were rho = -0.25 (p < 0.001), rho = -0.20 (p < 0.001), and rho = 0.330 (p < 0.001), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

ETCO2 was a better predictor of in-hospital mortality and ICU admission than the standard vital signs at ED triage. ETCO2 correlated significantly with measures of metabolic acidosis.

Validity of the Korean triage and acuity scale in older patients compared to the adult group

INTRODUCTION

While many patients visit the emergency department (ED) for various reasons, medical resources are limited. Therefore, various triage scale systems have been used to predict patient urgency and severity. South Korea has developed and used the Korean Triage and Accuracy Scale (KTAS) based on the Canadian classification tool. As the elderly population increases, the number of elderly patients visiting the ED also increases. However, in KTAS, there is no consideration for the elderly, and the same classification system as adults. The aim of this study is to verify the ability of KTAS to predict severity levels in the elderly group, compared to the adult group.

METHODS

This is a retrospective study for patients who visited the ED at two centers between February 1, 2018 and January 31, 2021. The initial KTAS level, changed level at ED discharge, general patient character, ED treatment results, in-hospital mortality, and lengths of hospital and ED stays were acquired. Area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) was used to verify the severity prediction ability of the elderly group to KTAS, and logistic regression analysis was used for the prediction up-triage of KTAS.

RESULTS

The enrolled patients in the study were 87,220 in the adult group and 37,627 in the elderly group. The proportion of KTAS up-triage was higher in the elderly group (1.9 % vs. 1.2 %, p < 0.001). The AUROC for the overall admission rate was 0.686, 0.667 in the adult and elderly group, the AUROC for ICU admission was 0.842, 0.767, and the AUROC for in-hospital mortality prediction was 0.809, 0.711, indicating a decrease in the AUROC value in the elderly group. The independent factors of the up-triage predictors were old age, male gender, pulse, and ED length of stay, and old age was the most influential variable.

CONCLUSION

KTAS was poorly associated with severity in the elderly than in adults, and it was found that up-triaging was more likely to occur in the elderly. The severity and urgency of patients over 65 years of age should not be underestimated when initially determining the triage scale.

Prognosis for older people at presentation to emergency department based on frailty and aggregated vital signs

BACKGROUND

Risk stratification for older people based on aggregated vital signs lack the accuracy to predict mortality at presentation to the Emergency Department (ED). We aimed to develop and internally validate the Frailty adjusted Prognosis in ED tool (FaP-ED) for 30-day mortality combining frailty and aggregated vital signs.

METHODS

Single-center prospective cohort of undifferentiated ED patients aged 65 or older, consecutively sampled upon ED presentation from a tertiary Emergency Center. Vital signs were aggregated using the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) as a measure of illness or injury severity and frailty was assessed with the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS). The FaP-ED was constructed by combining NEWS and CFS in multivariable logistic regression. The primary outcome was 30-day mortality. Measures of discrimination and calibration were assessed to evaluate predictive performance and internally validated using bootstrapping.

RESULTS

2250 patients were included, 67 (1.8%) were omitted from analyses due to missing CFS, loss to follow-up, or terminal illness. Thirty-day mortality rate was 5.4% (N = 122, 95% CI = 4.5%-6.4%). Median NEWS was 1 (Inter-Quartile Range (IQR): 0-3) and median CFS was 4 (IQR: 3-5). The Area Under Receiver Operating Characteristic (AUROC) for FaP-ED was 0.86 (95% CI = 0.83-0.90). This was significantly higher than NEWS (0.81, 95% CI = 0.77-0.85, DeLong: Z = 3.5, p < 0.001) or CFS alone (0.82, 95% CI = 0.78-0.86, DeLong: Z = 4.4, p < 0.001). Bootstrapped estimates of FaP-ED AUROC, calibration slope, and intercept were 0.86, 0.95, and -0.09, respectively, suggesting internal validity. A decision-threshold of CFS 5 and NEWS 3 was proposed based on qualitative comparison of positive Likelihood Ratio at all relevant FaP-ED cutoffs.

CONCLUSION

Combining aggregated vital signs and frailty accurately predicted 30-day mortality at ED presentation and illustrated an important clinical interaction between frailty and illness severity. Pending external validation, the Fap-ED operationalizes the concept of such "geriatric urgency" for the ED setting.

Comparison of national early warning score-2 and qSOFA in predicting the prognosis of older adults with altered mental status

BACKGROUND

Altered mental status occurs in one in four older adults, and the risk increases with age. Numerous scoring systems have been improved to predict mortality, but data are limited for these scoring systems to interpret older adult patients.

AIM

We aimed to compare qSOFA and National Early Warning Score-2 (NEWS2) scores in predicting the prognosis of older adults with altered mental status.

METHOD

We included 500 older adults with altered mental status. We noted the qSOFA and NEWS2 scores of the patients. We compared the qSOFA and NEWS2 scores for the prediction of 30-day mortality, 48-h mortality, hospitalization clinic, outcome, and hospitalization length.

RESULTS

The mean NEWS2 score was 6.4, and the mean qSOFA score was 1.3. For 30-day mortality, the sensitivity and specificity of the NEWS2 score ≥ 5 were 68.29% and 69.6%, respectively, and those of qSOFA score > 1 were 47.14% and 78.75%, respectively. AUC values for 30-day mortality prediction were 0,725 (CI: 0.683-0.763) and 0.631 (CI: 0.587-0.673). For intensive care unit hospitalization prediction, the sensitivity and specificity of the NEWS2 score ≥ 5 were 52.73% and 77.67%, respectively, and those of qSOFA score > 1 were 35.32% and 81.55%, respectively. In patients with a NEWS2 score > 10 points, the predicted 48-h mortality had a specificity of 80.6%, which was higher than the qSOFA score.

CONCLUSION

NEWS2 score can be used to predict 48-h mortality, 30-day mortality, and intensive care unit hospitalization compared with qSOFA in older adults with altered mental status.

Soluble Urokinase Plasminogen Activator Receptor (suPAR) in the Emergency Department (Ed): A Tool for the Assessment of Elderly Patients

Emergency department (ED) overcrowding is a global issue setting challenges to all care providers. Elderly patients are frequent visitors of the ED and their risk stratification is demanding due to insufficient assessment methods. A prospective cohort study was conducted to determine the risk-predicting value of a prognostic biomarker, soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR), in the ED, concentrating on elderly patients. SuPAR levels were determined as part of standard blood sampling of 1858 ED patients. The outcomes were assessed in the group of <75 years (=younger) and ≥75 years (=elderly). The elderly had higher median suPAR levels than the younger (5.4 ng/mL vs. 3.7 ng/mL, p < 0.001). Increasing suPAR levels were associated with higher probability for 30-day mortality and hospital admission in all age groups. SuPAR also predicted 30-day mortality when adjusted to other clinical factors. SuPAR acts successfully as a nonspecific risk predictor for 30-day mortality, independently and with other risk-assessment tools. Low suPAR levels predict positive outcomes and could be used in the discharging process. A cut-off value of 4 ng/mL could be used for all ED patients, 5 ng/mL being a potential alternative in elderly patients.

Accuracy of Emergency Severity Index in older adults

BACKGROUND AND IMPORTANCE

Emergency Severity Index is a five-level triage tool in the emergency department that predicts the need for emergency department resources and the degree of emergency. However, it is unknown whether this is valid in patients aged greater than or equal to 65 years.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of the study was to compare the accuracy of the Emergency Severity Index triage system between emergency department patients aged 18-64 and greater than or equal to 65 years.

DESIGN, SETTINGS, AND PARTICIPANTS

This was a retrospective observational cohort study of adults who presented to a Finnish emergency department between 1 February 2018 and 28 February 2018. All data were collected from electronic health records.

OUTCOME MEASURES AND ANALYSIS

The primary outcome was 3-day mortality. The secondary outcomes were 30-day mortality, hospital admission, high dependency unit or ICU admission, and emergency department length of stay. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and cutoff performances were used to investigate significant associations between triage categories and outcomes. The results of the two age groups were compared.

MAIN RESULTS

There were 3141 emergency department patients aged 18-64 years and 2370 patients aged greater than or equal to 65 years. The 3-day mortality area under the curve in patients aged greater than or equal to 65 years was greater than that in patients aged 18-64 years. The Emergency Severity Index was associated with high dependency unit/ICU admissions in both groups, with moderate sensitivity [18-64 years: 61.8% (50.9-71.9%); greater than or equal to 65 years: 73.3% (63.5-81.6%)] and high specificity [18-64 years: 93.0% (92.0-93.8%); greater than or equal to 65 years: 90.9% (90.0-92.1%)]. The sensitivity was high and specificity was low for 30-day mortality and hospital admission in both age groups. The emergency department length of stay was the longest in Emergency Severity Index category 3 for both age groups. There was no significant difference in accuracy between age groups for any outcome.

CONCLUSION

Emergency Severity Index performed well in predicting high dependency unit/ICU admission rates for both 18-64 years and greater than or equal to 65-year-old patients. It predicted the 3-day mortality for patients aged greater than or equal to 65 years with high accuracy. It was inaccurate in predicting 30-day mortality and hospital admission for both age groups.

Utilization of Prognostic Biomarker Soluble Urokinase Plasminogen Activator Receptor in the Emergency Department: A Tool for Safe and More Efficient Decision-making

Introduction:

Risk stratification in the emergency departments (EDs) is in critical need for new applications due to ED overcrowding and hospitalization of older people. We aimed to evaluate the expediency, efficiency and safety of a prognostic biomarker, soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR), as a tool for the risk assessment of patients arriving at the ED.

Methods:

We performed a comparative cross-sectional study in 2 emergency departments (EDs), suPAR measurements being incorporated into routine blood sampling in the intervention ED. The primary outcome was the number of discharges from the ED. The importance of the outcomes was examined by appropriate multi- or bivariate analysis.

Results:

The absolute and relative number of discharges were similar between the intervention and control groups [121 (55.3%) vs 62 (55.9%)]. No significant differences between the groups were seen in the length of stays in the ED. Patients with low suPAR values were more likely discharged and patients with high suPAR values more likely admitted to hospital. Two admitted patients with low suPAR values could have been discharged safely.

Conclusion:

The utilization of suPAR did not increase the risk for neither positive nor negative outcomes. Low suPAR values could be potential in discharging more patients safely. Instead of unselected patient populations, the benefits of suPAR measurements in the ED could emerge in the assessment of a more precisely determined and selected group of patients.

Assessment of patient mobility improves the risk stratification of triage with the Emergency Severity Index: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND AND IMPORTANCE

Formal triage may assign a low acuity to patients at high risk of deterioration and mortality. A patient's mobility can be easily assessed at triage.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate if a simple assessment of mobility at triage can improve the Emergency Severity Index's (ESI) prediction of adverse outcomes.

DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Prospective observational study of all patients attending the emergency department (ED) of a single academic hospital in Switzerland over a period of 3 weeks.

OUTCOME MEASURES AND ANALYSIS

Triage clinicians classified participants as having normal or impaired mobility at triage. Impaired mobility was defined as the lack of a stable independent gait, regardless of its cause or duration (e.g. any patient who needed help to walk). The primary outcome was 30-day mortality. We performed a survival analysis stratified by mobility and ESI level. We compared the performance of regression models including the ESI alone or in combination with mobility as predictors of mortality using the Bayesian information criterion (BIC).

MAIN RESULTS

2523 patients were included in the study and 880 (34.9%) had impaired mobility. Patients with impaired mobility had a lower median 30-day survival in ESI levels 1-3. Survival of patients with normal mobility was similar regardless of their ESI level.

CONCLUSION

The assessment of mobility at triage improves the ESI algorithm's risk stratification.

A Multifunctional, Low-Volume Resuscitation Cocktail Improves Vital Organ Blood Flow and Hemostasis in a Pig Model of Polytrauma with Traumatic Brain Injury

The resuscitation of polytrauma with hemorrhagic shock and traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a balance between permissive hypotension and maintaining vital organ perfusion. There is no current optimal solution. This study tested whether a multifunctional resuscitation cocktail supporting hemostasis and perfusion could mitigate blood loss while improving vital organ blood flow during prolonged limited resuscitation. Anesthetized Yorkshire swine were subjected to fluid percussion TBI, femur fracture, catheter hemorrhage, and aortic tear. Fluid resuscitation was started when lactate concentration reached 3–4 mmol/L. Animals were randomized to one of five groups. All groups received hydroxyethyl starch solution and vasopressin. Low- and high-dose fibrinogen (FBG) groups additionally received 100 and 200 mg/kg FBG, respectively. A third group received TXA and low-dose FBG. Two control groups received albumin, with one also including TXA. Animals were monitored for up to 6 h. Blood loss was decreased and vital organ blood flow was improved with low- and high-dose fibrinogen compared to albumin controls, but survival was not improved. There was no additional benefit of high- vs. low-dose FBG on blood loss or survival. TXA alone decreased blood loss but had no effect on survival, and combining TXA with FBG provided no additional benefit. Pooled analysis of all groups containing fibrinogen vs. albumin controls found improved survival, decreased blood loss, and improved vital organ blood flow with fibrinogen delivery. In conclusion, a low-volume resuscitation cocktail consisting of hydroxyethyl starch, vasopressin, and fibrinogen concentrate improved outcomes compare to controls during limited resuscitation of polytrauma.

The Impact of Age on Predictive Performance of National Early Warning Score at Arrival to Emergency Departments: Development and External Validation

STUDY OBJECTIVE

To investigate how age affects the predictive performance of the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) at arrival to the emergency department (ED) regarding inhospital mortality and intensive care admission.

METHODS

International multicenter retrospective cohorts from 2 Danish and 3 Dutch ED. Development cohort: 14,809 Danish patients aged ≥18 years with at least systolic blood pressure or pulse measured from the Danish Multicenter Cohort. External validation cohort: 50,448 Dutch patients aged ≥18 years with all vital signs measured from the Netherlands Emergency Department Evaluation Database (NEED). Multivariable logistic regression was used for model building. Performance was evaluated overall and within age categories: 18 to 64 years, 65 to 80 years, and more than 80 years.

RESULTS

In the Danish Multicenter Cohort, a total of 2.5% died inhospital, and 2.8% were admitted to the ICU, compared with 2.8% and 1.6%, respectively, in the NEED. Age did not add information for the prediction of intensive care admission but was the strongest predictor for inhospital mortality. For NEWS alone, severe underestimation of risk was observed for persons above 80 while overall Area Under Receiver Operating Characteristic (AUROC) was 0.82 (confidence interval [CI] 0.80 to 0.84) in the Danish Multicenter Cohort versus 0.75 (CI 0.75 to 0.77) in the NEED. When combining NEWS with age, underestimation of risks was eliminated for persons above 80, and overall AUROC increased significantly to 0.86 (CI 0.85 to 0.88) in the Danish Multicenter Cohort versus 0.82 (CI 0.81 to 0.83) in the NEED.

CONCLUSION

Combining NEWS with age improved the prediction performance regarding inhospital mortality, mostly for persons aged above 80, and can potentially improve decision policies at arrival to EDs.

The feasibility of home self-assessment of vital signs and symptoms: A new key to telehealth for individuals?

Objective

During the COVID-19 pandemic, social distancing and self-isolation called for innovative, readily implementable, and effective short-term health solutions. The objective of this study was to assess the feasibility of self-assessment of vital signs and symptoms with electronic transmission of results, by self-isolating individuals with positive SARS-CoV-2 polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test. The secondary objective was to describe the association between the presence of abnormal vital signs and severe symptoms as well as their evolution over time.

Method

Participants with positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR test were asked to perform twice daily standardized vital signs measurements and self-assessment of symptoms for 14 consecutive days. All data were transmitted electronically through a mobile application and a web-based platform. Participants were provided with decision support tools based on the severity of their condition and a weekly nurse practitioner telephone follow-up. Abnormal values for vital signs and severe symptoms were determined. Per participant and per days, proportions of abnormal vital signs and severe symptoms were calculated.

Results

Data from 46 participants (mean age 54.1 ± 6.9 years, 54% male) were available for analysis. On average, participants performed the standardized self-assessment for 12.3 ± 3.4 days (89% performed at least 7 measurement days and 61% completed all 14 days). The highest proportions abnormal values for vital signs were for oximetry (20.1%) and respiratory rate (12.1%). The highest proportions of severe symptoms were for fatigue (16.9%) and myalgia. (10.2%). The combined proportion of abnormal vital signs and severe symptoms was maximal on day 1 with 20.3% of total measurements, with a linear decrease to 3.5% on day 14.

Conclusion

Remote initiation of home measurements of vital signs and symptoms, self-management of these measures, accompanied by a decision support tool and supported by preplanned nurse follow-up are feasible. This could allow to opening up new insight for the care of sick individuals.

The Undertriage of Older Adults in the Emergency Department: A Review of Interventions

The Research to Practice column is intended to improve the research critique skills of the advanced practice registered nurse and the emergency nurse and to assist with the translation of research into practice. A topic and a research study are selected for each column. A patient scenario is presented as a vehicle, in which to review and critique, the findings of the selected research study. In this column, we review the conclusions of A. Malinovska, L. Pitasch, N. Geigy, C. H. Nickel, and R. Bingisser (2019) from their article, titled "Modification of the Emergency Severity Index Improves Mortality Prediction in Older Patients."

Validity and reliability of the triage scale in older people in a regional emergency department in Hong Kong

Background:

Older people (⩾65 years) present a unique challenge in emergency department triage. Hong Kong’s Hospital Authority adopts a five-level emergency department triage system, with no special considerations for older people. We evaluated the validity and reliability of this triage scale in older people in a regional Hong Kong emergency department.

Methods:

In total, 295 cases stratified by triage category were randomly selected for review from November 2016 to January 2017. Validity was established by comparing the real emergency department patients’ triage category against (1) that of an expert panel and (2) the need for life-saving intervention. Triage notes were extracted to make case scenarios to evaluate inter- and intra-rater reliabilities. Emergency department nurses (n = 8) were randomly selected and grouped into <5 and ⩾5 years emergency department experience. All nurses independently rated all 295 scenarios, blinded to clinical outcomes.

Results:

The percentage agreement between the real emergency department patients’ triage category and the expert panel’s assignment was 68.5%, with 16.3% and 15.3% over-triage and under-triage, respectively. Quadratic weighting kappa for agreement with the expert panel was 0.72 (95% confidence interval: 0.53–0.91). The sensitivity, specificity and positive likelihood ratio for the need for life-saving interventions were 75.0% (95% confidence interval: 47.6%–92.7%), 97.1% (95% confidence interval: 94.4%–98.8%) and 26.2 (95% confidence interval: 12.5%–54.8%), respectively. The Fleiss kappa value for inter-rater reliability was 0.50 (95% confidence interval: 0.47–0.54) for junior and senior nurse groups, respectively.

Conclusion:

The current triage scale demonstrates reasonable validity and reliability for use in our older people. Considerations highlighting the unique characteristics of older people emergency department presentations are recommended.

Equivalency between the shock index and subtracting the systolic blood pressure from the heart rate: an observational cohort study

Background

Although the shock index is known to predict mortality and other severe outcomes, deriving it requires complex calculations. Subtracting the systolic blood pressure from the heart rate may produce a simple shock index that would be a clinically useful substitute for the shock index. In this study, we investigated whether the simple shock index was equivalent to the shock index.

Methods

This observational cohort study was conducted at 2 tertiary care hospitals. Patients who were transported by ambulance were recruited for this study and were excluded if they were aged < 15 years, had experienced prehospital cardiopulmonary arrest, or had undergone inter-hospital transfer. Pearson’s product-moment correlation coefficient and regression equation were calculated, and two one-sided tests were performed to examine their equivalency.

Results

Among 5429 eligible patients, the correlation coefficient between the shock index and simple shock index was extremely high (0.917, 95% confidence interval 0.912 to 0.921, P < .001). The regression equation was estimated as sSI = 258.55 log SI. The two one-sided tests revealed a very strong equivalency between the shock index and the index estimated by the above equation using the simple shock index (mean difference was 0.004, 90% confidence interval 0.003 to 0.005).

Conclusion

The simple shock index strongly correlated with the shock index.

National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) and 3-level triage scale as risk predictors in frail older adults in the emergency department

BACKGROUND

The aim of the emergency department (ED) triage is to recognize critically ill patients and to allocate resources. No strong evidence for accuracy of the current triage instruments, especially for the older adults, exists. We evaluated the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) and a 3-level triage assessment as risk predictors for frail older adults visiting the ED.

METHODS

This prospective, observational study was performed in a Finnish ED. The data were collected in a six-month period and included were ≥ 75-year-old residents with Clinical Frailty Scale score of at least four. We analyzed the predictive values of NEWS2 and the three-level triage scale for 30-day mortality, hospital admission, high dependency unit (HDU) and intensive care unit (ICU) admissions, a count of 72-h and 30-day revisits, and ED length-of-stay (LOS).

RESULTS

A total of 1711 ED visits were included. Median for age, CFS, LOS and NEWS2 were 85 years, 6 points, 6.2 h and 1 point, respectively. 30-day mortality was 96/1711. At triage, 69, 356 and 1278 of patients were assessed as red, yellow and green, respectively. There were 1103 admissions, of them 31 to an HDU facility, none to ICU. With NEWS2 and triage score, AUCs for 30-day mortality prediction were 0.70 (0.64-0.76) and 0.62 (0.56-0.68); for hospital admission prediction 0.62 (0.60-0.65) and 0.55 (0.52-0.56), and for HDU admission 0.72 (0.61-0.83) and 0.80 (0.70-0.90), respectively. The NEWS2 divided into risk groups of low, medium and high did not predict the ED LOS (p = 0.095). There was a difference in ED LOS between the red/yellow and as red/green patient groups (p < 0.001) but not between the yellow/green groups (p = 0.59). There were 48 and 351 revisits within 72 h and 30 days, respectively. With NEWS2 AUCs for 72-h and 30-day revisit prediction were 0.48 (95% CI 0.40-0.56) and 0.47 (0.44-0.51), respectively; with triage score 0.48 (0.40-0.56) and 0.49 (0.46-0.52), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The NEWS2 and a local 3-level triage scale are statistically significant, but poor in accuracy, in predicting 30-day mortality, and HDU admission but not ED LOS or revisit rates for frail older adults. NEWS2 also seems to predict hospital admission.

Pre-hospital triage performance and emergency medical services nurse's field assessment in an unselected patient population attended to by the emergency medical services: a prospective observational study

BACKGROUND

In Sweden, the rapid emergency triage and treatment system (RETTS-A) is used in the pre-hospital setting. With RETTS-A, patients triaged to the lowest level could safely be referred to a lower level of care. The national early warning score (NEWS) has also shown promising results internationally. However, a knowledge gap in optimal triage in the pre-hospital setting persists. This study aimed to evaluate RETTS-A performance, compare RETTS-A with NEWS and NEWS 2, and evaluate the emergency medical service (EMS) nurse's field assessment with the physician's final hospital diagnosis.

METHODS

A prospective, observational study including patients (≥16 years old) transported to hospital by the Gothenburg EMS in 2016. Three comparisons were made: 1) Combined RETTS-A levels orange and red (high acuity) compared to a predefined reference emergency, 2) RETTS-A high acuity compared to NEWS and NEWS 2 score ≥ 5, and 3) Classification of pre-hospital nurse's field assessment compared to hospital physician's diagnosis. Outcomes of the time-sensitive conditions, mortality and hospitalisation were examined. The statistical tests included Mann-Whitney U test and Fisher's exact test, and several binary classification tests were determined.

RESULTS

Overall, 4465 patients were included (median age 69 years; 52% women). High acuity RETTS-A triage showed a sensitivity of 81% in prediction of the reference patient with a specificity of 64%. Sensitivity in detecting a time-sensitive condition was highest with RETTS-A (73%), compared with NEWS (37%) and NEWS 2 (35%), and specificity was highest with NEWS 2 (83%) when compared with RETTS-A (54%). The negative predictive value was higher in RETTS-A (94%) compared to NEWS (91%) and NEWS 2 (92%). Eleven per cent of the final diagnoses were classified as time-sensitive while the nurse's field assessment was appropriate in 84% of these cases.

CONCLUSIONS

In the pre-hospital triage of EMS patients, RETTS-A showed sensitivity that was twice as high as that of both NEWS and NEWS 2 in detecting time-sensitive conditions, at the expense of lower specificity. However, the proportion of correctly classified low risk triaged patients (green/yellow) was higher in RETTS-A. The nurse's field assessment of time-sensitive conditions was appropriate in the majority of cases.

Vital sign abnormalities as predictors of clinical deterioration in subacute care patients: A prospective case-time-control study

BACKGROUND

Emergency interhospital transfers from inpatient subacute care to acute care occur in 8% to 17.4% of admitted patients and are associated with high rates of acute care readmission and in-hospital mortality. Serious adverse events in subacute care (rapid response team or cardiac arrest team calls) and increased nursing surveillance are the strongest known predictors of emergency interhospital transfer from subacute to acute care hospitals. However, the epidemiology of clinical deterioration across sectors of care, and specifically in subacute care is not well understood.

OBJECTIVES

To explore the trajectory of clinical deterioration in patients who did and did not have an emergency interhospital transfer from subacute to acute care; and develop an internally validated predictive model to identify the role of vital sign abnormalities in predicting these emergency interhospital transfers.

DESIGN

This prospective, exploratory cohort study is a subanalysis of data derived from a larger case-time-control study.

SETTING

Twenty-two wards of eight subacute care hospitals in five major health services in Victoria, Australia. All subacute care hospitals were geographically separate from their health services' acute care hospitals.

PARTICIPANTS

All patients with an emergency transfer from inpatient rehabilitation or geriatric evaluation and management unit to an acute care hospital within the same health service were included. Patients receiving palliative care were excluded.

METHODS

Study data were collected between 22 August 2015 and 30 October 2016 by medical record audit. The Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel test and bivariate logistic regression analysis were used to compare cases with controls and to account for health service clustering effect.

RESULTS

Data were collected on 603 transfers (557 patients) and 1160 controls. Adjusted for health service, ≥2 vital sign abnormalities in subacute care (adjusted odds ratio=8.81, 95% confidence intervals:6.36-12.19, p<0.001) and serious adverse events during the first acute care admission (adjusted odds ratio=1.28, 95% confidence intervals:1.08-1.99, p=0.015) were the clinical factors associated with increased risk of emergency interhospital transfer. An internally validated predictive model showed that vital sign abnormalities can fairly predict emergency interhospital transfers from subacute to acute care hospitals.

CONCLUSION

Serious adverse events in acute care should be a key consideration in decisions about the location of subacute care delivery. During subacute care, 15.7% of cases had vital signs fulfilling organisational rapid response team activation criteria, yet missed rapid response team activations were common suggesting that further consideration of the criteria and strategies to optimise recognition and response to clinical deterioration in subacute care are needed.

Risk of mortality and cardiopulmonary arrest in critical patients presenting to the emergency department using machine learning and natural language processing

Emergency department triage is the first point in time when a patient's acuity level is determined. The time to assign a priority at triage is short and it is vital to accurately stratify patients at this stage, since under-triage can lead to increased morbidity, mortality and costs. Our aim was to present a model that can assist healthcare professionals in triage decision making, namely in the stratification of patients through the risk prediction of a composite critical outcome-mortality and cardiopulmonary arrest. Our study cohort consisted of 235826 adult patients triaged at a Portuguese Emergency Department from 2012 to 2016. Patients were assigned to emergent, very urgent or urgent priorities of the Manchester Triage System (MTS). Demographics, clinical variables routinely collected at triage and the patients' chief complaint were used. Logistic regression, random forests and extreme gradient boosting were developed using all available variables. The term frequency-inverse document frequency (TF-IDF) natural language processing weighting factor was applied to vectorize the chief complaint. Stratified random sampling was used to split the data into train (70%) and test (30%) data sets. Ten-fold cross validation was performed in train to optimize model hyper-parameters. The performance obtained with the best model was compared against the reference model-a regularized logistic regression trained using only triage priorities. Extreme gradient boosting exhibited good calibration properties and yielded areas under the receiver operating characteristic and precision-recall curves of 0.96 (95% CI 0.95-0.97) and 0.31 (95% CI 0.26-0.36), respectively. The predictors ranked with higher importance by this model were the Glasgow coma score, the patients' age, pulse oximetry and arrival mode. Compared to the reference, the extreme gradient boosting model using clinical variables and the chief complaint presented higher recall for patients assigned MTS-3 and can identify those who are at risk of the composite outcome.

Effect of a sepsis prediction algorithm on patient mortality, length of stay and readmission: a prospective multicentre clinical outcomes evaluation of real-world patient data from US hospitals

BACKGROUND

Severe sepsis and septic shock are among the leading causes of death in the USA. While early prediction of severe sepsis can reduce adverse patient outcomes, sepsis remains one of the most expensive conditions to diagnose and treat.

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of a machine learning algorithm for severe sepsis prediction on in-hospital mortality, hospital length of stay and 30-day readmission.

DESIGN

Prospective clinical outcomes evaluation.

SETTING

Evaluation was performed on a multiyear, multicentre clinical data set of real-world data containing 75 147 patient encounters from nine hospitals across the continental USA, ranging from community hospitals to large academic medical centres.

PARTICIPANTS

Analyses were performed for 17 758 adult patients who met two or more systemic inflammatory response syndrome criteria at any point during their stay ('sepsis-related' patients).

INTERVENTIONS

Machine learning algorithm for severe sepsis prediction.

OUTCOME MEASURES

In-hospital mortality, length of stay and 30-day readmission rates.

RESULTS

Hospitals saw an average 39.5% reduction of in-hospital mortality, a 32.3% reduction in hospital length of stay and a 22.7% reduction in 30-day readmission rate for sepsis-related patient stays when using the machine learning algorithm in clinical outcomes analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Reductions of in-hospital mortality, hospital length of stay and 30-day readmissions were observed in real-world clinical use of the machine learning-based algorithm. The predictive algorithm may be successfully used to improve sepsis-related outcomes in live clinical settings.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT03960203.

Predicting Intensive Care Unit admission among patients presenting to the emergency department using machine learning and natural language processing

The risk stratification of patients in the emergency department begins at triage. It is vital to stratify patients early based on their severity, since undertriage can lead to increased morbidity, mortality and costs. Our aim was to present a new approach to assist healthcare professionals at triage in the stratification of patients and in identifying those with higher risk of ICU admission. Adult patients assigned Manchester Triage System (MTS) or Emergency Severity Index (ESI) 1 to 3 from a Portuguese and a United States Emergency Departments were analyzed. Variables routinely collected at triage were used and natural language processing was applied to the patient chief complaint. Stratified random sampling was applied to split the data in train (70%) and test (30%) sets and 10-fold cross validation was performed for model training. Logistic regression, random forests, and a random undersampling boosting algorithm were used. We compared the performance obtained with the reference model—using only triage priorities—with the models using additional variables. For both hospitals, a logistic regression model achieved higher overall performance, yielding areas under the receiver operating characteristic and precision-recall curves of 0.91 (95% CI 0.90-0.92) and 0.30 (95% CI 0.27-0.33) for the United States hospital and of 0.85 (95% CI 0.83-0.86) and 0.06 (95% CI 0.05-0.07) for the Portuguese hospital. Heart rate, pulse oximetry, respiratory rate and systolic blood pressure were the most important predictors of ICU admission. Compared to the reference models, the models using clinical variables and the chief complaint presented higher recall for patients assigned MTS/ESI 3 and can identify patients assigned MTS/ESI 3 who are at risk for ICU admission.

Patient characteristics, triage utilisation, level of care, and outcomes in an unselected adult patient population seen by the emergency medical services: a prospective observational study

Background

Crowding in the emergency department (ED) is a safety concern, and pathways to bypass the ED have been introduced to reduce the time to definitive care. Conversely, a number of low-acuity patients in the ED could be assessed by the emergency medical services (EMS) as requiring a lower level of care. The limited access to primary care in Sweden leaves the EMS nurse to either assess the patient as requiring the ED or to stay at the scene. This study aimed to assess patient characteristics and evaluate the initial assessment by and utilisation of the ambulance triage system and the appropriateness of non-transport decisions.

Methods

A prospective observational study including 6712 patients aged ≥16 years was conducted. The patient records with 72 h of follow-up for non-transported patients were reviewed. Outcomes of death, time-critical conditions, complications within 48 h and final hospital assessment were evaluated. The Mann-Whitney U test, Fisher’s exact test, and Spearman’s rank correlation were used for statistical analysis.

Results

The median patient age was 66 years, and the most common medical history was a circulatory diagnosis. Males received a higher priority from dispatchers and were more frequently assessed at the scene as requiring hospital care. A total of 1312 patients (19.7%) were non-transported; a history of psychiatric disorders or no medical history was more commonly noted among these patients. Twelve (0.9%) of the 1312 patients not transported were later admitted with time-critical conditions. Full triage was applied in 77.4% of the cases, and older patients were triaged at the scene as an ‘unspecific condition’ more frequently than younger patients. Overall, the 30-day mortality was 4.1% (n = 274).

Conclusions

Age, sex, medical history, and presentation all appear to influence the initial assessment. A number of patients transported to ED could be managed at a lower level of care. A small proportion of the non-transported patients were later diagnosed with a time-critical condition, warranting improved assessment tools at the scene and education of the personnel focusing on the elderly population. These results may be useful in addressing resource allocation issues aiming at increasing patient safety.

Nonspecific complaints in the emergency department - a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Nonspecific complaint (NSC) is a common presenting complaint in the emergency setting, especially in the elderly population. Individual studies have shown that it is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. This prognostic systematic review draws a synthesis of reported outcomes for patients presenting with NSC and compares them with outcomes for patients presenting with a specific complaint.

METHODS

We conducted a literature search for publications, abstracts and conference presentations from Ovid, Scopus and Web of Science for the past 20 years. Studies were included which treated adult patients presenting to the Emergency Medical Services or Emergency Department with NSC. 2599 studies were screened for eligibility and quality was assessed using the SIGN assessment for bias tool. We excluded any low-quality studies, resulting in nine studies for quantitative analysis. We analysed the included studies for in-hospital mortality, triage category, emergency department length of stay, admission rate, hospital length of stay, intensive care admissions and re-visitation rate and compared outcomes to patients presenting with specific complaints (SC), where data were available. We grouped discharge diagnoses by ICD-10 category.

RESULTS

We found that patients presenting with NSC were mostly older adults. Mortality for patients with NSC was significantly increased compared to patients presenting with SC [OR 2.50 (95% CI 1.40-4.47)]. They were triaged as urgent less often than SC patients [OR 2.12 (95% CI 1.08-4.16)]. Emergency department length of stay was increased in two out of three studies. Hospital length of stay was increased by 1-3 days. Admission rates were high in most studies, 55 to 84%, and increased in comparison to patients with SC [OR 3.86 (95% CI 1.76-8.47)]. These patients seemed to require more resources than patients with SC. The number for intensive care admissions did not seem to be increased. Data were insufficient to make conclusions regarding re-visitation rates. Discharge diagnoses were spread throughout the ICD-10 main chapters, infections being the most prevalent.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with NSC have a high risk of mortality and their care in the Emergency Department requires more time and resources than for patients with SC. We suggest that NSC should be considered a major emergency presentation.

Vital Signs Data and Probability of Hospitalization, Transfer to Another Facility, or Emergency Department Death Among Adults Presenting for Medical Illnesses to the Emergency Department at a Large Urban Hospital in the United States

BACKGROUND

Vital signs are routinely measured from patients presenting to the emergency department (ED), but how they predict clinical outcomes like hospitalization is unclear.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate how pulse, respiratory rate, temperature, and mean arterial pressure (MAP) at ED presentation predicted probability of hospitalization, transfer to another center, or death in the ED (as a composite outcome) vs. other ED dispositions (discharged, eloped, and sent to observation or labor and delivery), and to assess the performance of different modeling strategies, specifically, models including flexible forms of vital signs (as restricted cubic splines) vs. linear forms (untransformed numeric variables) vs. binary transformations (vital signs values categorized simply as normal or abnormal).

METHODS

We analyzed the data of 12,660 adults presenting for medical illnesses to the ED at the University of California, San Francisco Medical Center, San Francisco, California, throughout 2014. We used flexible forms of vital signs data at presentation (pulse, temperature, respiratory rate, and MAP) to predict ED disposition (admitted, transferred, or died, vs. other ED dispositions) and to guide binary transformation of vital signs. We compared performance of models including vital signs as flexible terms, binary transformations, or linear terms.

RESULTS

A model including flexible forms of vital signs and age to predict the outcome had good calibration and moderate discrimination (C-statistic = 71.2, 95% confidence interval [CI] 70.0-72.4). Binary transformation of vital signs had minimal impact on performance (C-statistic = 71.3, 95% CI 70.2-72.5). A model with linear forms was less calibrated and had slightly reduced discrimination (C-statistic = 70.3, 95% CI 69.1-71.5).

CONCLUSIONS

Findings suggest that flexible modeling of vital signs may better reflect their association with clinical outcomes. Future studies to evaluate how vital signs could assist clinical decision-making in acute care settings are suggested.

Modification of the Emergency Severity Index Improves Mortality Prediction in Older Patients

Introduction

Older patients frequently present to the emergency department (ED) with nonspecific complaints (NSC), such as generalized weakness. They are at risk of adverse outcomes, and early risk stratification is crucial. Triage using Emergency Severity Index (ESI) is reliable and valid, but older patients are prone to undertriage, most often at decision point D. The aim of this study was to assess the predictive power of additional clinical parameters in NSC patients.

Methods

Baseline demographics, vital signs, and deterioration of activity of daily living (ADL) in patients with NSC were prospectively assessed at four EDs. Physicians scored the coherence of history and their first impression. For prediction of 30-day mortality, we combined vital signs at decision point D (heart rate, respiratory rate, oxygen saturation) as “ESI vital,” and added “ADL deterioration,” “incoherence of history,” or “first impression,” using logistic regression models.

Results

We included 948 patients with a median age of 81 years, 62% of whom were female. The baseline parameters at decision point D (ESI vital) showed an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.64 for predicting 30-day mortality in NSC patients. AUCs increased to 0.67 by adding ADL deterioration to 0.66 by adding incoherence of history, and to 0.71 by adding first impression. Maximal AUC was 0.73, combining all parameters.

Conclusion

Adding the physicians’ first impressions to vital signs at decision point D increases predictive power of 30-day mortality significantly. Therefore, a modified ESI could improve predictive power of triage in older patients presenting with NSCs.

Impact of age on the discriminative ability of an emergency triage system: A cohort study

BACKGROUND

Emergency triage systems optimize resources in emergency departments (EDs) for those who need urgent care. Five-level triage systems, such as the Canadian Triage and Acuity Scale (CTAS), have been used worldwide. We examined whether the discriminative ability of an emergency triage system varies according to age group using a patient cohort triaged with the Japan Triage and Acuity Scale (JTAS), a validated system based on the CTAS.

METHODS

We conducted a cohort study of 27 120 self-presenting patients aged 16 years and older who were triaged with (JTAS) between June 2013 and May 2014 at a Japanese tertiary care hospital. Outcome measures were admission to intensive care units (ICUs) as the primary and in-hospital death as the secondary. We described the trends of the discriminative ability of JTAS using areas under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC), sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of JTAS for seven age categories.

RESULTS

The AUROC of JTAS for ICU admission decreased with age (maximum 0.85 to minimum 0.71), sensitivity non-significantly decreased (maximum 0.67 to minimum 0.32), and specificity declined with age (maximum 0.96 to minimum 0.88). The positive and negative predictive value increased (minimum 0.03 to maximum 0.09) and decreased (minimum 0.98 to maximum 0.99), respectively, with age. Overall misclassification increased across age groups (P < 0.001). This trend was mostly consistent with the analysis of in-hospital death.

CONCLUSION

Our study suggests that the discriminative ability of an emergency triage system decreases as patient age increases, corresponding to a decrease in specificity. Undertriage may not significantly increase, but misclassification significantly increases as patient age increases.

Risk assessment models for potential use in the emergency department have lower predictive ability in older patients compared to the middle-aged for short-term mortality - a retrospective cohort study

Background

Older patients is a complex group at increased risk of adverse outcomes compared to younger patients, which should be considered in the risk assessment performed in emergency departments. We evaluated whether the predictive ability of different risk assessment models for acutely admitted patients is affected by age.

Methods

Cohort study of middle-aged and older patients. We investigated the accuracy in discriminating between survivors and non-survivors within 7 days of different risk assessment models; a traditional triage algorithm, a triage algorithm with clinical assessment, vital signs, routine biomarkers, and the prognostic biomarker soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR).

Results

The cohort included 22,653 (53.2%) middle-aged patients (age 40–69 years), and 19,889 (46.8%) older patients (aged 70+ years). Death within 7 days occurred in 139 patients (0.6%) in middle-aged patients and 596 (3.0%) of the older patients. The models based on vital signs and routine biomarkers had the highest area under the curve (AUC), and both were significantly better at discriminating 7-day mortality in middle-aged patients compared to older patients; AUC (95% CI): 0.88 (0.84–0.91), 0.75 (0.72–0.78), P < 0.01, and 0.86 (0.82–0.90), 0.76 (0.73–0.78), P < 0.001. In a subgroup of the total cohort (6.400 patients, 15.0%), the suPAR level was available. suPAR had the highest AUC of all individual predictors with no significant difference between the age groups, but further research in this biomarker is required before it can be used.

Conclusion

The predictive value was lower in older patients compared to middle-aged patients for all investigated models. Vital signs or routine biomarkers constituted the best models for predicting 7-day mortality and were better than the traditional triage model. Hence, the current risk assessment for short-term mortality can be strengthened, but modifications for age should be considered when constructing new risk assessment models in the emergency department.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12877-019-1154-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Predicting in-hospital mortality among non-trauma patients based on vital sign changes between prehospital and in-hospital: An observational cohort study

Objective

To prevent misjudgment of the severity of patients in the emergency department who initially seem non-severe but are in a critical state, methods that differ from the conventional viewpoint are needed. We aimed to determine whether vital sign changes between prehospital and in-hospital could predict in-hospital mortality among non-trauma patients.

Methods

This observational cohort study was conducted in two tertiary care hospitals. Patients were included if they were transported by ambulance for non-trauma-related conditions but were excluded if they experienced prehospital cardiopulmonary arrest, were pregnant, were aged <15 years, had undergone inter-hospital transfer, or had complete missing data regarding prehospital or in-hospital vital signs. The main outcome was in-hospital mortality, and the study variables were changes in vital signs, pulse pressure, and/or shock index between the prehospital and in-hospital assessments. Logistic regression analyses were performed to obtain adjusted odds ratios for each variable. Receiver operating characteristic curve analyses were performed to identify cut-off values that produced a positive likelihood ratio of ≥2.

Results

Among the 2,586 eligible patients, 170 died in the two hospitals. Significantly elevated risks of in-hospital mortality were associated with changes in the Glasgow Coma Scale (cut-off ≤–3), respiratory rate (no clinically significant cut-off), systolic blood pressure (cut-off ≥47 mmHg), pulse pressure (cut-off ≥55 mmHg), and shock index (cut-off ≥0.3).

Conclusions

Non-trauma patients who exhibit changes in some vital signs between prehospital and in-hospital have an increased risk of in-hospital mortality. Therefore, it is useful to incorporate these changes in vital signs to improve triaging and predict the occurrence of in-hospital mortality.

Early prediction of hospital admission for emergency department patients: a comparison between patients younger or older than 70 years

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to develop models that predict hospital admission to ED of patients younger and older than 70 and compare their performance.

METHODS

Prediction models were derived in a retrospective observational study of all patients≥18 years old visiting the ED of a university hospital during the first 6 months of 2012. Patients were stratified into two age groups (<70 years old and ≥70 years old). Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to identify predictors of hospital admission among factors available immediately after patient arrival to the ED. Validation of the prediction models was performed on patients presenting to the ED during the second half of the year 2012.

RESULTS

10 807 patients were included in the derivation and 10 480 in the validation cohorts. The strongest independent predictors of hospital admission among the 8728 patients <70 years old were age, sex, triage category, mode of arrival, performance of blood tests, chief complaint, ED revisit, type of specialist, phlebotomised blood sample and all vital signs. The area under the curve (AUC) of the validation cohort for those <70 years old was 0.86 (95% CI 0.85 to 0.87). Among the 2079 patients ≥70 years, the same factors were predictive, except for gender, type of specialist and heart rate; the AUC was 0.77 (95% CI 0.75 to 0.79). The prediction models could identify a group of 10% of patients with the highest risk in whom hospital admission was predicted at ED triage, with a positive predictive value (PPV) of 71% (95% CI 68% to 74%) in younger patients and PPV of 87% (95% CI 81% to 92%) in older patients.

CONCLUSION

Demographic and clinical factors readily available early in the ED visit can be useful in identifying patients who are likely to be admitted to the hospital. While the model for the younger patients had a higher AUC, the model for older patients had a higher PPV in identifying the patients at highest risk for admission. Of note, heart rate was not a useful predictor in the older patients.

Modified Early Warning Score and VitalPac Early Warning Score in geriatric patients admitted to emergency department

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to evaluate the value of the Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) and the VitalPac Early Warning Score (VIEWS) in predicting hospitalization and in-hospital mortality in geriatric emergency department (ED) patients.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This prospective, single-centered observational study was carried out over 1 month at the ED of a university hospital in patients 65 years of age and older presenting to the ED. The vital parameters of the patients measured on admission to ED were recorded. The MEWS and VIEWS were calculated using the recorded physiological parameters of the patients. Hospitalization and in-hospital mortality were used as the primary outcomes.

RESULTS

A total of 671 patients included in the study. The median age of the patients was 75 (11) years, and 375 (55.9%) were men. The MEWS is effective for discriminating patient groups that have been discharged from ED, admitted to a ward and admitted to ICU [1 (2) vs. 1 (1) vs. 3 (3), respectively, P<0.001]. The VIEWS is also effective for discriminating patient groups that have been discharged from ED, admitted to a ward, and admitted to ICU [2 (3) vs. 5 (5) vs. 8 (8), respectively, P<0.001]. The AUCs of the MEWS and VIEWS were 0.727 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.689-0.765] and 0.756 (95% CI 0.720-0.792) in predicting hospitalization, respectively. The AUCs of the MEWS and VIEWS were 0.891 (95% CI 0.844-0.937) and 0.900 (95% CI 0.860-0.941) in predicting in-hospital mortality, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The MEWS and VIEWS are powerful scoring systems that are easy-to-use for predicting the hospitalization and in-hospital mortality of geriatric ED patients.

Emergency Department Vital Signs and Outcomes After Discharge

OBJECTIVE

Vital signs are critical markers of illness severity in the emergency department (ED). Providers need to understand the abnormal vital signs in older adults that are problematic. We hypothesized that in patients age > 65 years discharged from the ED, there are abnormal vital signs that are associated with an admission to an inpatient bed within 7 days of discharge.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study using data from a regional integrated health system of members age > 65 years during the years 2009 to 2010. We used univariate contingency tables to assess the relationship between hospital admission within 7 days of discharge and vital sign (including systolic blood pressure [sBP], heart rate [HR], body temperature, and pulse oximetry [SpO₂ ] values measured closest to discharge) using standard thresholds for abnormal and thresholds derived from the study data.

RESULTS

Of 104,025 ED discharges, 4,638 (4.5%) were followed by inpatient admission within 7 days. Vital signs had a greater odds of admission beyond a single cutoff. The vital signs with at least twice the odds of admission were sBP < 97 mm Hg (odds ratio [OR] = 2.02, 95% CI = 1.57-2.60), HR > 101 beats/min (OR = 2.00 95% CI = 1.75-2.29), body temperature > 37.3°C (OR = 2.14, 95% CI = 1.90-2.41), and pulse oximetry < 92 SpO₂ (OR = 2.04, 95% CI = 1.55-2.68). Patients with two vital sign abnormalities per the analysis had the highest odds of admission. A majority of patients discharged with abnormal vital signs per the analysis were not admitted within 7 days of ED discharge.

CONCLUSION

While we found a majority of patients discharged with abnormal vital signs as defined by the analysis, not to be admitted after discharge, we identified vital signs associated with at least twice the odds of admission.

The relationship between in-hospital location and outcomes of care in patients diagnosed with dementia and/or delirium diagnoses: analysis of patient journey

Background

The discrepancy between the number of admissions and the allocation of hospital beds means that many patients admitted to hospital can be placed in units or wards other than that which specialise in the patient’s primary health issue (home-ward). These patients are called ‘outlier’ patients. Risk factors and health system outcomes of hospital care for ‘outlier’ patients diagnosed with dementia and/or delirium are unknown. Therefore, the aim of this research was to examine patient journeys of people with dementia and/or delirium diagnoses, to identify risk factors for ‘inlier’ or ‘outlier’ status and patient or health system outcomes (consequences) of this status.

Methods

A retrospective, descriptive study compared patients who had dementia and/or delirium according to the proportion of time spent on the home ward i.e. ‘inliers’ or ‘outliers’. Data from the patient journey database at Flinders Medical Centre (FMC), a public hospital in South Australia from 2007 and 2014 were extracted and analysed. The analysis was carried out on the patient journeys of people with a dementia and/or delirium diagnosis.

Results

When 6367 inpatient journeys with dementia and/or delirium within FMC were examined, the Emergency Department (ED) Length of Stay (LOS) after being admitted as inpatient was prolonged for ‘outlier’ patients compared to ‘inlier’ patients (OR: 1.068, 95% CI: 1.057–1.079, p = 0.000). However, the inpatient LOS for’outlier’ patients was only marginally shorter than that of the ‘inlier’ patients (OR: 0.998, 95% CI: 0.998–0.998, p = 0.000). The chances of dying within 48 h of admission increased for ‘outlier’ patients (OR: 1.973, 95% CI: 1.158–3.359, p = 0.012) and their Charlson co-morbidity Index was higher (OR: 1.059, 95% CI: 1.021–1.10, p = 0.002). Completion of discharge summaries within 2 days post-discharge for ‘outlier’ patients was compromised (OR: 1.754, 95% CI: 1.492–2.061, p = 0.000).Additionally, ‘outlier’ patients were more likely to be discharged to another hospital for other care types not offered at FMC (OR: 1.931, 95% CI: 1.559–2.391, p = 0.000).

Conclusion

An examination of the patient journeys at FMC has determined that the health system outcomes for patients with dementia and/or delirium who are admitted outside of their home-ward are affected by in-hospital location despite the homogenous nature of the study population.

Prediction of 90-day mortality in older patients after discharge from an emergency department: a retrospective follow-up study

Background

Older people frequently attend the emergency department (ED) and have a high risk of poor outcome as compared to their younger counterparts. Our aim was to study routinely collected clinical parameters as predictors of 90-day mortality in older patients attending our ED.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective follow-up study at the Leiden University Medical Center (The Netherlands) among patients aged 70 years or older attending the ED in 2012. Predictors were age, gender, time and way of arrival, presenting complaint, consulting medical specialty, vital signs, pain score and laboratory testing. Cox regression analyses were performed to analyse the association between these predictors and 90-day mortality.

Results

Three thousand two hundred one unique patients were eligible for inclusion. Ninety-day mortality was 10.5 % for the total group. Independent predictors of mortality were age (hazard ratio [HR] 1.06, 95 % confidence interval [95 % CI] 1.04-1.08), referral from another hospital (HR 2.74, 95 % CI 1.22-6.11), allocation to a non-surgical specialty (HR: 1.55, 95 % CI 1.13-2.14), increased respiration rate (HR up to 2.21, 95 % CI 1.25-3.92), low oxygen saturation (HR up to 1.96, 95 % CI 1.19-3.23), hypothermia (HR 2.27, 95 % CI 1.28-4.01), fever (HR 0.43, 95 % CI 0.24-0.75), high pain score (HR 1.55, 95 % CI 1.03-2.32) and the indication to perform laboratory testing (HR 3.44, 95 % CI 2.13-5.56).

Conclusions

Routinely collected parameters at the ED can predict 90-day mortality in older patients presenting to the ED. This study forms the first step towards creating a new and simple screening tool to predict and improve health outcome in acutely presenting older patients.

Triage decisions for ICU admission: Report from the Task Force of the World Federation of Societies of Intensive and Critical Care Medicine

Demand for intensive care unit (ICU) resources often exceeds supply, and shortages of ICU beds and staff are likely to persist. Triage requires careful weighing of the benefits and risks involved in ICU admission while striving to guarantee fair distribution of available resources. We must ensure that the patients who occupy ICU beds are those most likely to benefit from the ICU's specialized technology and professionals. Although prognosticating is not an exact science, preference should be given to patients who are more likely to survive if admitted to the ICU but unlikely to survive or likely to have more significant morbidity if not admitted. To provide general guidance for intensivists in ICU triage decisions, a task force of the World Federation of Societies of Intensive and Critical Care Medicine addressed 4 basic questions regarding this process. The team made recommendations and concluded that triage should be led by intensivists considering input from nurses, emergency medicine professionals, hospitalists, surgeons, and allied professionals. Triage algorithms and protocols can be useful but can never supplant the role of skilled intensivists basing their decisions on input from multidisciplinary teams. Infrastructures need to be organized efficiently both within individual hospitals and at the regional level. When resources are critically limited, patients may be refused ICU admission if others may benefit more on the basis of the principle of distributive justice.

Role of trauma team activation in poor outcomes of elderly patients

INTRODUCTION

Elderly trauma patients suffer worse outcomes than younger patients. Trauma team activation (TTA) improves outcomes in younger patients. It is unclear whether decreased TTA effectiveness or under-activation in elderly patients could contribute to their poor outcomes.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

This retrospective registry study examined all adult trauma patients admitted to a level 1 trauma center over 2 y. Analyses tested (1) whether age modifies the effect of TTA on poor outcomes, (2) whether elderly patients with severe injury were less likely to receive TTA than younger patients, and (3) which early variables were associated with poor outcomes among elderly patients who did not receive TTA.

RESULTS

The study included 10,033 patients. The adjusted relative risk from TTA for all ages was 0.48 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.34-0.68, P < 0.001), and there was no effect modification by age (interaction term P value, 0.171). The adjusted odds ratio for the young was 0.49 (95% CI = 0.26-0.91, P = 0.024) and for the elderly was 0.80 (95% CI = 0.53-1.20, P = 0.282). The adjusted odds ratio for lack of TTA associated with old age was 1.37 (95% CI = 1.12-1.69, P = 0.003). The strongest associations with poor outcomes were seen with low heart rate, low minimum blood pressure, high injury severity score, and high Glasgow coma score.

CONCLUSIONS

Lack of TTA could contribute to elderly patients' poor outcomes. Clinicians should not be reassured by normal heart rates and should be wary of even transiently lower blood pressures in the elderly. A large cohort study is needed to identify which additional elderly patients could benefit from TTA.

VITAL SIGNS MEASUREMENT: AN INDICATOR OF SAFE CARE DELIVERED TO ELDERLY PATIENTS

ABSTRACT The study's aim was to analyze the importance assigned by the nursing staff to the recording of vital signs of elderly inpatients, as well as perceived barriers and benefits. Data were collected through interviews held with 13 nurses and the reports were analyzed using content analysis, considering the health belief model proposed by Rosenstock. The categories that emerged from the analysis indicate barriers that interfere in the proper monitoring of vital signs, namely: workload, lack of availability and accessibility of basic equipment such as thermometers, stethoscopes and sphygmomanometers, which compromises the nursing assessment and leads to a greater susceptibility to incidents. Although the facility does not provide conditions to measure vital signs properly, the nursing staff attempts to do what is feasible given their current knowledge and context to achieve the best outcome possible in view of the resources available.

Pain, distress, and anticipated recovery for older versus younger emergency department patients after motor vehicle collision

BACKGROUND

Motor vehicle collisions (MVCs) are the second most common injury mechanism resulting in emergency department (ED) visits by older adults. MVCs result in substantial pain and psychological distress among younger individuals, but little is known about the occurrence of these symptoms in older individuals. We describe the frequency of and characteristics associated with pain, distress, and anticipated time for physical and emotional recovery for older adults presenting to the ED after MVC in comparison to younger adults.

METHODS

In-person interviews were conducted for adults presenting to one of eight EDs after MVC without an obvious fracture or injury requiring admission as part of two prospective studies. Pain severity was assessed using a 0-10 verbal scale. Distress was assessed using the Peritraumatic Distress Inventory (range 0-52). Patients were asked to estimate their expected time for physical and emotional recovery; these responses were dichotomized to <30 or ≥30 days. ED pain and distress and associations between patient and collision characteristics and ED pain and distress were examined for patients age 65 years and older and patients age 18 to 64.

RESULTS

Older (n = 96) and younger (n = 943) adults had the same mean pain scores (5.5, SD 2.5 vs. 5.5, SD 2.4). Distress scores were lower in older than in younger adults (15.5, SD 9 vs. 19.2, SD 10). A higher percentage of older adults than younger adults had an anticipated time to physical recovery ≥30 days (41%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 28%-55% vs. 11%, 95% CI 9%-13%). Similarly, older adults were more likely to have an anticipated time for emotional recovery ≥30 days (45%, 95% CI 35%-55% vs. 17%, 95% CI 15%-20%). Older adults were less likely than younger adults to have moderate or severe neck pain (score ≥4) (25%, 95% CI 23% to 41% vs. 54%, 95% CI 48% to 60%) or back pain (31%, 95% CI 23% to 46% vs. 56%, 95% CI 51 to 62%) but more likely to have moderate or severe chest pain (42%, 95% CI 32% to 50% vs. 20%, 95% CI 16 to 23%). Pre-MVC depressive symptoms and pain catastrophizing were positively associated with pain and distress in both older and younger adults.

CONCLUSIONS

In our cohort, older adults who presented to the ED after MVC experienced similar pain severity as younger patients and less distress but were more likely to estimate their times for physical and emotional recovery to be 30 days or more. Increased emergency provider awareness of acute pain and distress symptoms among older patients experiencing MVC may improve outcomes for these patients.

Ambulance transport rates after motor vehicle collision for older vs. younger adults: a population-based study

Older adults are at greater risk than younger adults for life-threatening injury after motor vehicle collision (MVC). Among those with life-threatening injury, older adults are also at greater risk of not being transported by emergency medical services (EMS) to an emergency department. Despite the greater risk of serious injury and non-transportation among older adults, little is known about the relationship between patient age and EMS transportation rates for individuals experiencing MVC. We describe transport rates across the age-span for adults seen by EMS after experiencing MVC using data reported to the North Carolina Department of Motor Vehicles between 2008 and 2011. Of all adults aged 18 years and older experiencing MVC and seen by EMS (n=484,310), 36.3% (n=175,768) were transported to an emergency department. Rates of transport for individuals seen by EMS after MVC increased only a small amount with increasing patient age. After adjusting for potential confounders of the relationship between patient age and the decision to transport (patient gender, patient race, air bag deployment, patient trapped or ejected, and injury severity), transport rates were: age 18-64=36.0% (95% confidence interval [CI], 35.9-36.2%); age 65-74=36.6% (95% CI, 36.0-37.1%); age 75-84=37.3% (95% CI, 36.5-38.1%), and age 85-94=38.2% (95% CI, 36.7-39.8%). In North Carolina between 2008 and 2011, the transportation rate was only slightly higher for older adults than for younger adults, and most older adults experiencing MVC and seen by EMS were not transported to the emergency department. These findings have implications for efforts to improve the sensitivity of criteria used by EMS to determine the need for transport for older adults experiencing MVC.