Characteristics and Prediction of Lung Cancer Mortality in China from 1991 to 2013

Changing Patterns in Cancer Mortality from 1987 to 2020 in China

BACKGROUND

China has the highest number of new cancer cases and deaths worldwide, posing huge health and economic burdens to society and affected families. This study comprehensively analyzed secular trends of national cancer mortality statistics to inform future prevention and intervention programs in China.

METHODS

The annual estimate of overall cancer mortality and its major subtypes were derived from the National Health Commission (NHC). Joinpoint analysis was used to detect changes in trends, and we used age-period-cohort modeling to estimate cohort and period effects in Cancers between 1987 and 2020. Net drift (overall annual percentage change), local drift (annual percentage change in each age group), longitudinal age curves (expected longitudinal age-specific rate), and period (cohort) relative risks were calculated.

RESULTS

The age-standardized cancer mortality in urban China has shown a steady downward trend but has not decreased significantly in rural areas. Almost all cancer deaths in urban areas have shown a downward trend, except for colorectal cancer in men. Decreasing mortality from cancers in rural of the stomach, esophagus, liver, leukemia, and nasopharynx was observed, while lung, colorectal cancer female breast, and cervical cancer mortality increased. Birth cohort risks peaked in the cohorts born around 1920-1930 and tended to decline in successive cohorts for most cancers except for leukemia, lung cancer in rural, and breast and cervical cancer in females, whose relative risks were rising in the very recent cohorts. In addition, mortality rates for almost all types of cancer in older Chinese show an upward trend.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the age-standardized overall cancer mortality rate has declined, and the urban-rural gap narrowed, the absolute cancer cases kept increasing due to the growing elderly population in China. The rising mortality related to lung, colorectal, female breast, and cervical cancer should receive higher priority in managing cancer burden and calls for targeted public health actions to reverse the trend.

An exercise prescription for patients with lung cancer improves the quality of life, depression, and anxiety

Introduction

Lung cancer has the highest rates of morbidity and mortality among all cancers. Patients with lung cancer inevitably confront psychosocial discomforts and progressively experience depression and anxiety that potentially impact the clinical outcomes [e.g., quality of life (QoL)]. These mental disorders in patients with lung cancer may effectively be alleviated with prescribed Chinese traditional mind-body exercises. This study aimed to determine the effect of the exercise prescription containing Chinese traditional mind-body exercise on QoL, depression, and anxiety in patients with lung cancer.

Methods

In this study, 52 patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) recruited from the China-Japan Friendship Hospital were divided into two groups, namely, the experimental group (N = 26) and the control group (N = 26). The experimental group was treated with an 8-week exercise prescription containing aerobic and resistance training. The control group received the usual care during the study period. The QoL, depression, and anxiety were separately investigated using EORTC QLQ-C30, EORTC QLQ-LC13, the Self-Rating Depression Scale (SDS), and the Self-Rating Anxiety Scale (SAS) at baseline and post-intervention. The scores of questionnaires were analyzed using the paired sample and independent sample t-tests to explore the intragroup and intergroup differences, respectively.

Results

The EORTC QLQ-C30 scores for physical functioning, role functioning, emotional functioning, and global QoL in the experimental group at post-intervention were significantly higher than those at baseline. The EORTC QLQ-C30 scores for fatigue, pain, dyspnea, and insomnia in the experimental group at post-intervention were significantly lower than those at the baseline. The SDS scores (baseline: 57.74 ± 8.77 vs. post-intervention: 51.42 ± 7.31, p < 0.05) and the SAS scores (baseline: 56.63 ± 9.39 vs. post-intervention: 49.16 ± 7.83, p < 0.05) in the experimental group at post-intervention were significantly lower than those at baseline.

Conclusions

The 8-week exercise prescription containing moderate-intensity Baduanjin (5 days per week) can effectively alleviate QoL, depression, and anxiety in patients with NSCLC. Our exercise prescription is an effective supportive treatment for lung cancer patients with depression and anxiety.

Clinical trial registration

Chinese Clinical Trial Registry (ChiCTR1900025121).

Time series models show comparable projection performance with joinpoint regression: A comparison using historical cancer data from World Health Organization

Background

Cancer is one of the major causes of death and the projection of cancer incidences is essential for future healthcare resources planning. Joinpoint regression and average annual percentage change (AAPC) are common approaches for cancer projection, while time series models, traditional ways of trend analysis in statistics, were considered less popular. This study aims to compare these projection methods on seven types of cancers in 31 geographical jurisdictions.

Methods

Using data from 66 cancer registries in the World Health Organization, projection models by joinpoint regression, AAPC, and autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous variables (ARIMAX) were constructed based on 20 years of cancer incidences. The rest of the data upon 20-years of record were used to validate the primary outcomes, namely, 3, 5, and 10-year projections. Weighted averages of mean-square-errors and of percentage errors on predictions were used to quantify the accuracy of the projection results.

Results

Among 66 jurisdictions and seven selected cancers, ARIMAX gave the best 5 and 10-year projections for most of the scenarios. When the ten-year projection was concerned, ARIMAX resulted in a mean-square-error (or percentage error) of 2.7% (or 7.2%), compared with 3.3% (or 15.2%) by joinpoint regression and 7.8% (or 15.0%) by AAPC. All the three methods were unable to give reasonable projections for prostate cancer incidence in the US.

Conclusion

ARIMAX outperformed the joinpoint regression and AAPC approaches by showing promising accuracy and robustness in projecting cancer incidence rates. In the future, developments in projection models and better applications could promise to improve our ability to understand the trend of disease development, design the intervention strategies, and build proactive public health system.

Novel application of the traditional lipid ratios as strong risk predictors of nonsmall-cell lung cancer risk in a Chinese population

Dyslipidemia has been associated with cancer risk, yet the relationship between lipid ratios and nonsmall-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is still unclear. This study aimed to explore the value of lipid ratios, including total cholesterol/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (TC/HDL-C) and triglyceride/HDL-C (TG/HDL-C) as predictors of NSCLC in a Chinese population. Adult patients with histologically confirmed NSCLC, without a previous history of cancer, concomitant disease associated with lipid metabolism disorders, or usage of lipid-lowering drugs, were enrolled from a single center. Controls without NSCLC, matched for age and sex, were enrolled from the same Center. Lipid profile including TC, TG, HDL-C were measured in all participants. TC/HDL-C and TG/HDL-C were calculated based on the levels of TC, TG, HDL-C. Seven hundred eighty-two NSCLC cases and 599 controls were enrolled. NSCLC patients had significantly higher TG/HDL-C and TC/HDL-C levels than those in the control. After controlling for confounding factors, TG/HDL-C (OR = 4.489, 95% CI: 2.463-6.035, P < .001) and TC/HDL-C (OR = 2.396, 95% CI: 2.086-2.752, P = .001) were independently associated with NSCLC risk. The incidence of NSCLC was increased with rising tertiles of TG/HDL-C and TC/HDL-C. Moreover, patients with TNM II-IV stage NSCLC had higher TG/HDL-C and TC/HDL-C than those in TNM I and Tis stage. TG/HDL-C and TC/HDL-C are positively correlated with NSCLC risk and TG/HDL-C is more predictive than TC/HDL-C in predicting the risk of NSCLC. The highest AUC was that of TG/HDL (0.898), at a cutoff point of 0.62, with 83.6% sensitivity and 83.5% specificity.

Effects of Holothurian Glycosaminoglycan on the Sensitivity of Lung Cancer to Chemotherapy

Sea cucumber is a kind of food. Holothurian glycosaminoglycan (hGAG) is extracted from the body wall of the sea cucumber. Administration of hGAG and cisplatin (DDP) together to treat lung cancer was investigated. Lung adenocarcinoma A549 cells were cultured and divided into 4 groups: control group, hGAG 100 µg/mL group, DDP 3 µg/mL group, and hGAG 100 µg/mL + DDP 3 µg/mL group. Cell inhibition and apoptosis was evaluated by CCK8 and Hoechst33258 staining. Cell cycle was tested by Annexin V-FITC/PI (propidium iodide) double-staining and flow cytometry. The expression of mRNA and protein of Bcl-2, Bax, caspase-3, and survivin were detected by reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction and Western blot, respectively. The results showed that hGAG combined with DDP enhanced the inhibitory effect of DDP on A549 lung cells through apoptosis pathway. The mechanism of apoptosis may be related to the reduction of Bcl-2 and survivin, as well as the ascension of Bax and caspase-3. hGAG could promote A549 cell cycle arrest in G1 and G2 phase and improve the DDP chemotherapy effects on A549 cells.

Association between CYP2A13 polymorphisms and lung cancer: A protocol for systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Recently, lung cancer has become the most common cause of cancer-related death, several studies indicate that the cytochrome P450 2A13 (CYP2A13) polymorphisms may be correlated with lung cancer susceptibility, but the results have been inconsistent and inconclusive. Therefore, the aim of this meta-analysis is to provide a precise conclusion on the potential association between CYP2A13 polymorphisms and the risk of lung cancer based on case-control studies.

METHODS

The PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, Web of Science, and China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) databases will be searched for case-control studies published up to September 2020. Odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were used to determine the effects of the CYP2A13 polymorphism on lung cancer risk, respectively.

RESULTS

The results of this meta-analysis will be submitted to a peer-reviewed journal for publication.

CONCLUSION

This meta-analysis will summarize the association between CYP2A13 polymorphisms and the risk of lung cancer.

INPLASY REGISTRATION NUMBER

INPLASY202090102.

A 12-Week Multi-Modal Exercise Program: Feasibility of Combined Exercise and Simplified 8-Style Tai Chi Following Lung Cancer Surgery

Objective:

To assess the feasibility, safety, and preliminary effect of a 12-week multi-modal rehabilitation program targeted at improving health-related quality of life and physical activity levels of patients with lung cancer following treatment.

Methods:

Patients with stage I to IIIA non-small cell lung cancer were included 6 to 12 weeks following completion of treatment. The intervention comprised of aerobic exercise (brisk walking), resistance training and 8-style Tai Chi. The 12-week program included 2 supervised center-based sessions per week of 90 minutes duration and home-based exercise. The primary outcomes were the feasibility and safety of the intervention. Secondary outcomes (assessed pre and post program) were physical and patient-reported outcomes.

Results:

Seventy-eight patients were approached during the 6-month recruitment period and 17 (22%) consented to the study. Eight participants (47%) met the definition of adherence to the program (attending at least 70% of supervised sessions). No serious adverse events occurred. A significant reduction in anxiety and depression was observed post-program. In addition, improvements in respiratory function, sleep quality, and some health-related quality of life domains were observed post-program. There were no significant differences in functional capacity or physical activity levels.

Conclusion:

This multi-modal exercise training program was safe, although the feasibility of the program in its current state is not supported given the low consent rate and low adherence to the intervention.

Trend analysis of lung cancer mortality and years of life lost (YLL) rate from 1999 to 2016 in Tianjin, China: Does the lung cancer burden in rural areas exceed that of urban areas?

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to examine the trends in the mortality rate and years of life lost (YLL) rate of lung cancer in Tianjin, China, during the period from 1999 to 2016.

METHODS

Lung cancer death data were obtained from Tianjin residents' all-cause death monitoring system, which covers the whole population of Tianjin. Crude mortality rate, age-standardized mortality rate, truncated rate (35-64 years), YLL and age-standardized YLL rate data were calculated and trends examined.

RESULTS

From 1999 to 2016, a total of 93 358 lung cancer deaths were reported in Tianjin, which accounted for 38.0% of all cancer deaths (93 358/245744). The crude mortality rate of lung cancer had increased 58.5% from 1999 (40.15/100000) to 2016 (63.64/100000), average annual percent change (AACP) = 2.9%, P < 0.01. However, the age-standard YLL rate had decreased to 13.3% in 2016 than in 1999, AACP = -0.8%, P < 0.01, with a stable trend in males (AACP = -0.2%), and noticeable decreasing trend in females (AACP = -1.4%). The lung cancer mortality rate (ASRW) in urban areas was higher than that in rural areas in 1999, with a ratio of 1.99:1. However, it was lower in 2016, with the ratio of 0.98:1. For the truncated rate (35-64 years), it had decreased in urban areas compared with rural areas since the year 2013.

CONCLUSION

Lung cancer remains the most fatal cancer in Tianjin. However, the age-standard YLL rate of lung cancer has decreased considerably accompanied by a decline in smoking rate years ago, especially in women and people living in urban areas. Considerable attention is therefore needed in the rural areas where cases of lung cancer are still rapidly increasing.

The spatiotemporal distribution of human brucellosis in mainland China from 2007-2016

Background

Despite the considerable efforts made to address the issue of brucellosis worldwide, its prevalence in dairy products continues to be difficult to estimate and represents a key public health issue around the world today. The aim of the present study was to better understand the epidemiology of this disease in mainland China. We set out to investigate the yearly spatial distribution and possible hotspots of the disease.

Methods

Human brucellosis data from mainland China between 2007 and 2016 were collected from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. A geographic information system ArcGIS10.3 (ESRI, Redlands) was used to identify potential changes in the spatial and temporal distribution of human brucellosis in mainland China during the study period. These distributions were evaluated using three-dimensional trend analysis and spatial autocorrelation analyse. A gravity-center was used to analyse the migration track of human brucellosis.

Results

A total of 399,578 cases of human brucellosis were reported during the 10-year study period. The monthly incidence of brucellosis in China demonstrates clear seasonality. Spring and summer are the peak seasons, while May is the peak month for brucellosis. Three-dimensional trend analysis suggests that brucellosis is on the rise from south to north, and that the epidemic situation in northern China is more severe. Between 2007 and 2016, the overall migration distance of the brucellosis incidence gravity-center was 906.43 km, and the direction was southwest. However, the overall gravity center of brucellosis was still in the northern part of China. In the global autocorrelation analysis, brucellosis in China demonstrated a non-random distribution between 2013 and 2014, with spatial autocorrelation (Z > 1.96, P < 0.05) and a clustering trend, while no clustering trend was found from 2007 to 2012 or from 2015 to 2016. In the local autocorrelation analysis, a Low-Low cluster phenomenon was found in the south of China in 2013 and 2014.

Conclusion

Human brucellosis remains a widespread challenge, particularly in northern China. The hotspots highlight potential high-risk areas which may require special plans and resources for monitoring and controlling the disease.

Transferrin-functionalised microemulsion co-delivery of β-elemene and celastrol for enhanced anti-lung cancer treatment and reduced systemic toxicity

In this study, we developed an intravenously injectable, transferrin-functionalised microemulsion that simultaneously carries β-elemene and celastrol (called Tf-EC-MEs) for enhanced anti-lung cancer treatment and reduced systemic toxicity. These dual-drug-loaded Tf-EC-MEs not only displayed synergistic antiproliferative effects on cultured cells in vitro, but also showed enhanced efficacy in vivo via active tumour targeting. In preparatory experiments, we found that β-elemene was capable of being used as oil phase, which enhanced drug-loading efficiency and allowed the mass ratio of β-elemene and celastrol to be optimised. In cellular studies, Tf-EC-MEs exhibited significantly improved A549 cellular uptake compared with β-elemene+celastrol (conventional combination treatment) and EC-MEs (non-active targeted treatment), demonstrating remarkable synergistic antiproliferative effects and higher rates of cell apoptosis. In A549-bearing xenograft mouse tumour models, Tf-EC-MEs exhibited enhanced antitumour activity compared to all other treatments. More importantly, Tf-EC-MEs did not cause the obvious systemic toxicity commonly found with mono-celastrol treatment. Collectively, these findings suggest that Tf-EC-MEs are a promising strategy for the combination drug treatment of lung cancer.

Tobacco and the lung cancer epidemic in China

China is in the midst of a lung cancer epidemic on an unprecedented scale. In 2015, there were an estimated 733,000 new lung cancer cases (17% of total cancer incidence) and 610,000 deaths (21.7% of total cancer mortality) in China. Lung cancer is the most commonly diagnosed cancer and the leading cause of cancer mortality in China. Tobacco smoke exposure is the primary factor driving current lung cancer trends. In 2015, smoking prevalence was 27.7% (52.1% among men and 2.7% among women). China has taken substantial steps to control tobacco use in recent years, including 19 cities implementing comprehensive smoke free laws and expansion of cessation services. However, significant challenges remain in order to meet the 2030 Healthy China goal of reducing smoking prevalence to 20%. In particular, ongoing attention is needed to continuing to control secondhand smoke exposure, to further enhance smoking cessation services, and to address novel alternative nicotine delivery devices (ANDS).

Polymorphism in lncRNA AC016683.6 and its interaction with smoking exposure on the susceptibility of lung cancer

Background

Long non-coding RNAs play pivotal roles in the carcinogenesis of multiple types of cancers. This study is firstly to evaluate influence of rs4848320 and rs1110839 polymorphisms in long non-coding RNA AC016683.6 on the susceptibility of lung cancer.

Methods

The present study was a hospital-based case–control study with 434 lung cancer patients and 593 cancer-free controls. Genotyping of the two SNPs detected by Taqman^® allelic discrimination method.

Results

There were no statistically significant associations between rs4848320 and rs1110839 polymorphisms in AC016683.6 and risk of lung cancer in overall population. However, in the smoking population, rs4848320 and rs1110839 polymorphisms significantly increased the risk of lung cancer in dominant and homozygous models (Rs4848320: P = 0.029; Rs1110839: P = 0.034), respectively. In male population, rs1110839 genetic variant was related to the risk of lung cancer in all genetic models (GG vs. TT: P = 0.008; Dominant model: P = 0.029; Recessive model: P = 0.027) rather than heterozygous model. The crossover analyses provided rs4848320 and rs1110839 risk genotypes carriers combined with smoking exposure 2.218-fold, 1.755-fold increased risk of lung cancer (Rs4848320: P = 0.005; Rs1110839: P = 0.017). Additionally, there were significantly positive multiplicative interaction of rs4848320 polymorphism with smoking status, with adjusted OR of 2.244 (1.162–4.334), but rs1110839 polymorphism did not exist.

Conclusions

Rs4848320 and rs1110839 polymorphisms may be associated with lung cancer susceptibility. Interaction of rs4848320 risk genotypes with smoking exposure may strengthen the risk effect on lung cancer.

Lung cancer mortality clusters in Shandong Province, China: how do they change over 40 years?

Lung cancer has long been a major health problem in China. This study aimed to examine the temporal trend and spatial pattern of lung cancer mortality in Shandong Province from 1970 to 2013. Lung cancer mortality data were obtained from Shandong Death Registration System and three nationwide retrospective cause-of-death surveys. A Purely Spatial Scan Statistics method with Discrete Poisson models was used to detect possible high-risk spatial clusters. The results show that lung cancer mortality rate in Shandong Province increased markedly from 1970-1974 (7.22 per 100,000 person-years) to 2011-2013 (56.37/100, 000). This increase was associated with both demographic and non-demographic factors. Several significant spatial clusters with high lung cancer mortality were identified. The most likely cluster was located in the northern region of Shandong Province during both 1970-1974 and 2011-2013. It appears the spatial pattern remained largely consistent over the last 40 years despite the absolute increase in the mortality rates. These findings will help develop intervention strategies to reduce lung cancer mortality in this large Chinese population.

Lung Cancer Mortality Trends in China from 1988 to 2013: New Challenges and Opportunities for the Government

Background: As lung cancer has shown a continuously increasing trend in many countries, it is essential to stay abreast of lung cancer mortality information and take informed actions with a theoretical basis derived from appropriate and practical statistical methods. Methods: Age-specific rates were collected by gender and region (urban/rural) and analysed with descriptive methods and age-period-cohort models to estimate the trends in lung cancer mortality in China from 1988 to 2013. Results: Descriptive analysis revealed that the age-specific mortality rates of lung cancer in rural residents increased markedly over the last three decades, and there was no obvious increase in urban residents. APC analysis showed that the lung cancer mortality rates significantly increased with age (20–84), rose slightly with the time period, and decreased with the cohort, except for the rural cohorts born during the early years (1909–1928). The trends in the patterns of the period and cohort effects showed marked disparities between the urban and rural residents. Conclusions: Lung cancer mortality remains serious and is likely to continue to rise in China. Some known measures are suggested to be decisive factors in mitigating lung cancer, such as environmental conservation, medical security, and tobacco control, which should be implemented more vigorously over the long term in China, especially in rural areas.

Programmed death-ligand 1 expression associated with molecular characteristics in surgically resected lung adenocarcinoma

BACKGROUND

Several clinical trials have shown that immune treatment focus on programmed death-1 and programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1) yields a good clinical efficacy in advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). We investigated whether the PD-L1 expression was related to clinicopathologic and molecular characteristics in patients with surgically resected NSCLC.

METHODS

Between December 2008 and 2013, formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded samples were obtained from patients with lung adenocarcinoma at Zhejiang Cancer Hospital. RT-PCR was used to analyze EGFR, KRAS, NRAS, PIK3CA, BRAF, HER2 mutations and ALK, ROS1, RET fusion genes. The PD-L1 expression was evaluated by immunohistochemistry and staining of 5 % or more was scored as positive expression. Survival analysis was evaluated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Multivariate regression was performed using the Cox proportional hazards model.

RESULTS

Mutations were detected in 76.6 % of the 385 patients tested: EGFR mutation (n = 205, 53.2 %), followed by EML4-ALK rearrangement (n = 18, 4.7 %), KRAS (n = 16, 4.2 %), HER2 (n = 9, 2.3 %), ROS1 rearrangement (n = 8, 2.1 %), PIK3CA (n = 6, 1.6 %), RET rearrangement (n = 6,1.6 %), BRAF (n = 2, 0.5 %), and NRAS mutations (n = 1, 0.2 %). Twenty-four (6.2 %) patients carried coexisting mutations. PD-L1 expression was detected in 48.3 % (186/385) of all the patients. PD-L1 positive patients more frequently carried coexisting mutations (18/24, 75 %), followed by single-gene (145/271, 53.5 %) and pan-negative mutations (23/90, 25.6 %). PD-L1 expression decreased disease-free survival (DFS) in univariate analysis (P = 0.014). Multivariate analysis revealed that PD-L1 expression was not an independent risk factor for poor DFS and overall survival (OS) (P = 0.22 and 0.37, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

PD-L1 overexpression is more frequently observed in oncogene-mediated lung adenocarcinoma, especially with coexisting mutation subtypes. PD-L1 expression is not a prognostic factor in surgically resected lung adenocarcinoma patients.