Visit-to-Visit Variability of Blood Pressure and Coronary Heart Disease, Stroke, Heart Failure, and Mortality: A Cohort Study

Home blood pressure stability score is associated with better cardiovascular prognosis: data from the nationwide prospective J-HOP study

A home blood pressure (BP)-centered strategy is emerging as the optimal approach to achieve adequate BP control in individuals with hypertension, but a simple cardiovascular risk score based on home BP level and variability is lacking. This study used prospective data from the Japan Morning Surge-Home Blood Pressure (J-HOP) extended study to develop a simple home BP stability score for the prediction of cardiovascular risk. The J-HOP extended study included 4070 participants (mean age 64.9 years) who measured home BP three times in the morning and evening for 14 days at baseline. During the mean 6.3-year follow-up, there were 260 cardiovascular events. A home BP stability score was calculated based on the average of morning and evening systolic BP (SBP; MEave), and three home BP variability metrics: average real variability (average absolute difference between successive measurements); average peak (average of the highest three SBP values for each individual), and time in therapeutic range (proportion of time spent with MEave home SBP 100-135 mmHg). There was a curvilinear association between the home BP stability score and the risk of cardiovascular events. Compared with individuals in the optimal home SBP stability score group (9-10 points), those in the very high-risk group (0 points) had significantly higher cardiovascular event risk during follow-up (adjusted hazard ratio 3.97, 95% confidence interval 2.22-7.09; p < 0.001), independent of age, sex, medication, cardiovascular risk factors, and office BP. These data show the potential for a simple home BP-based score to predict cardiovascular event risk in people with hypertension.

Patterns among factors associated with myocardial infarction: chi-squared automatic interaction detection tree and binary logit model

BACKGROUND

Although mortality from myocardial infarction (MI) has declined worldwide due to advancements in emergency medical care and evidence-based pharmacological treatments, MI remains a significant contributor to global cardiovascular morbidity. This study aims to examine the risk factors associated with individuals who have experienced an MI in Türkiye.

METHODS

Microdata obtained from the Türkiye Health Survey conducted by Turkish Statistical Institute in 2019 were used in this study. Binary logistic regression, Chi-Square, and CHAID analyses were conducted to identify the risk factors affecting MI.

RESULTS

The analysis identified several factors associated with an increased likelihood of MI, including hyperlipidemia, hypertension, diabetes, chronic disease status, male gender, older age, single marital status, lower education level, and unemployment. Marginal effects revealed that elevated hyperlipidemia levels increased the probability of MI by 4.6%, while the presence of hypertension, diabetes, or depression further heightened this risk. Additionally, individuals with chronic diseases lasting longer than six months were found to have a higher risk of MI. In contrast, factors such as being female, having higher education, being married, being employed, engaging in moderate physical activity, and moderate alcohol consumption were associated with a reduced risk of MI.

CONCLUSION

To prevent MI, emphasis should be placed on enhancing general education and health literacy. There should be a focus on increasing preventive public health education and practices to improve variables related to healthy lifestyle behaviours, such as diabetes, hypertension, and hyperlipidemia.

Patient Perceptions of Provider Race Concordance and Quality of Chronic Illness Care

BACKGROUND

Black people are more likely to have hypertension and report lower quality of care than White people. Patient-provider race concordance could improve perceived quality of care, potentially lessening disparities.

OBJECTIVE

Investigate the association between patient-provider race concordance and patient-perceived quality of chronic disease care, as measured by the Patient Assessment of Chronic Illness Care (PACIC) scale.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional analysis of baseline data from a randomized trial with Black patients with persistently uncontrolled hypertension.

SETTING

Participants received care at one of 69 rural primary care practices in Alabama and North Carolina.

PARTICIPANTS

Three hundred and ninety-one Black patients with persistently uncontrolled hypertension enrolled in the Southeastern Collaboration to Improve Blood Pressure Control (SEC) trial.

MAIN MEASURE

PACIC overall scores and subscale scores (patient activation, delivery system, goal setting, problem solving, follow-up).

RESULTS

Of 1592 patients enrolled in the SEC trial, 391 participants self-reported race concordance data and completed the PACIC. Most participants were age < 60 (52.4%), 65.2% identified as women, and 50.1% were beneficiaries of either Medicare or Medicaid. Those with patient-provider race concordance reported higher overall PACIC scores (58.8% vs 46.1%, p < 0.05), with higher sub-scores of goal setting (60.9% vs 46.8%, p < 0.05) and problem-solving (62.7% vs 48.0%, p < 0.05) compared to those without race concordance. Poisson regression models of participants age ≥ 60 years demonstrated that those with race concordance were more likely to have higher overall PACIC scores (RR 1.53, 95% CI 1.17-2.0, p = 0.002), goal-setting subscale scores (RR 1.63, 95% CI 1.24-2.15, p = 0.0005), and problem-solving subscale scores (RR 1.66, 95% CI 1.29-2.14, p < 0.0001). Those < 60 years of age had no significant findings comparing those with and without race concordance.

CONCLUSIONS

Older Black patients perceived greater quality of care if their providers were also Black.

Minimum number of readings necessary for determining long-term visit-to-visit blood pressure variability to predict cardiovascular outcomes in people with diabetes

BACKGROUND

People with diabetes often have increased blood pressure (BP) variability because of autonomic dysfunction and arterial stiffness, making it a critical factor in predicting clinical outcomes. We investigated the reproducibility of long-term visit-to-visit BP variability (VVV) and the minimum number of BP readings to reliably determine VVV in people with diabetes.

METHODS

This multicenter retrospective study used data from electronic health records of the Korea University Medical Center database. Altogether, 10 475 people with diabetes who had more than nine BP readings during a maximum period of 2 years were identified. This study focused on the coefficient of variation of these readings and their correlation with major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) over a 3-year follow-up period.

RESULTS

The mean age of the participants was 65.2 years. Of these, 53.2% were men, and 87.4% had hypertension. The mean coefficient of variation of multiple SBP readings that best predicted the 3-year MACE were 8.4, 9.5, 9.0, 9.0, and 9.7 for three, five, seven, nine, and all readings, respectively. Patients with high VVV (coefficient of variation of five SBP readings >9) exhibited a higher incidence of 3-year MACE (10.1%) than those with low VVV (5.4%, P < 0.001). In the multivariable analysis, high VVV of both SBP and DBP were independently associated with 3-year MACE.

CONCLUSION

Long-term VVV in the BP is a reproducible and reliable predictor of cardiovascular outcomes in people with diabetes. A minimum of five BP measurements are recommended for effective intraindividual VVV estimation and cardiovascular risk assessment.

Systolic Blood Pressure Time in Target Range and Cardiovascular Disease and Premature Death

Background

Previous research has suggested that time-in-target range (TTR) for systolic blood pressure (SBP) was associated with adverse cardiovascular events, but real-world data studies remain limited.

Objectives

The purpose of this study was to estimate the SBP-TTR associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) and premature death among the employed individuals with hypertension.

Methods

This study included 9,552 participants from the workplace hypertension management program initiated by the Kailuan Study in 2009. TTR was calculated using linear interpolation with the target range of SBP between 120 and 140 mm Hg. Multivariable Cox regression was used to evaluate the HR and CI for the association among SBP-TTR and CVD, premature CVD, and premature death.

Results

Participants with higher TTR exhibited a reduced number of cardiovascular risk factors. For a 1-SD increment in SBP-TTR, the HR was 0.81 (95% CI: 0.74-0.88) for CVD, 0.76 (95% CI: 0.67-0.86) for premature CVD, and 0.83 (95% CI: 0.74-0.92) for premature death. Furthermore, SBP-TTR was associated with a lower risk of ischemic stroke (HR: 0.81; 95% CI: 0.74-0.90) and hemorrhagic stroke (HR: 0.72; 95% CI: 0.56-0.93), but not myocardial infarction (HR: 0.84; 95% CI: 0.68-1.03). Results were similar when the target range of SBP was redefined as 110 to 130 mm Hg, but there was no significant association between SBP-TTR and hemorrhagic stroke (HR: 0.84; 95% CI: 0.64-1.10).

Conclusions

SBP-TTR was associated with a decreased risk of CVD, premature CVD, and premature death among the employed individuals.

Significance of blood pressure variability in normotensive individuals as a risk factor of developing hypertension

PURPOSE

Visit-to-visit blood pressure variability is a strong predictor of the incidence of cardiovascular events and target organ damage due to hypertension. The present study investigated whether year-to-year blood pressure variability predicts the risk of hypertension in the Japanese general population.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This study analysed 2806 normotensive individuals who participated in our physical check-up program for five years in a row from 2008 to 2013. The average, standard deviation, coefficient of variation, average real variability, and highest value of systolic blood pressure in the five consecutive visits were determined and used as baseline data. The participants were followed up for the next 6 years with the development of 'high blood pressure', an average blood pressure level of ≥140/90 mmHg or the use of antihypertensive medications, as the endpoint.

RESULT

During follow-up, 'high blood pressure' developed in 389 participants (13.9%, 29.5 per 1 000 person-years). The incidence increased across the quartiles of standard deviation and average real variability, while the average and highest systolic blood pressure had the most prominent impact on the development of 'high blood pressure'. Multivariate logistic regression analysis adjusted for possible risk factors indicated that the average, standard deviation, average real variability, and highest blood pressure, but not the coefficient of variation of systolic blood pressure, were significant predictors of 'high blood pressure'.

CONCLUSION

Increased year-to-year blood pressure variability predicts the risk of hypertension in the general normotensive population. The highest blood pressure in the preceding years may also be a strong predictor of the risk of hypertension.

Impact of pulse pressure variability evaluated by visit-to-visit on heart failure events in patients with hypertension: insights from the SPRINT trial

OBJECTIVES

In adult hypertensive patients, blood pressure variability is considered a risk factor for heart failure. The relationship between pulse pressure variability and the risk of heart failure remains unclear. This study aims to explore the impact of pulse pressure variability (PPV) on heart failure through a secondary analysis of the SPRINT randomized controlled trial.

METHODS

The data were derived from the SPRINT (Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial) study. The trial recruited participants 50 years or older, with SBP ≥ 130 mm Hg and at least one additional CVD risk factor. We calculated pulse pressure based on the systolic and diastolic blood pressure obtained during follow-up, and used the coefficient of variation to represent pulse pressure variability (PPV) for statistical analysis. We considered the incidence of acute decompensated heart failure as the outcome measure. We employed multivariable Cox regression analysis to examine the relationship between PPV and the risk of heart failure occurrence. Additionally, we used a restricted cubic spline model to analyze the dose-response relationship between PPV and the risk of heart failure occurrence.

RESULTS

In this study, a total of 9429 participants were included. During a median follow-up time of 3.87 years, 188 new cases of heart failure were observed. The mean age of the study population was 67.9 ± 9.4 years and 3382 participants (35.5%) were females. The average PPCV was 13.85 ± 5.37%. The results from the multivariable Cox regression analysis indicated that the risk of heart failure increased by 3% for every 1% increase in PPCV (HR = 1.030 [95% CI 1.016-1.044]; P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The study found that PPV is an independent risk factor for the occurrence of heart failure. This underscores the importance of maintaining long-term stability in pulse pressure, in preventing the development of heart failure.

Associations of ultra long-term visit-to-visit blood pressure variability, since childhood with vascular aging in midlife: a 30-year prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

Vascular aging, as assessed by structural and functional arterial properties, is an independent predictor of cardiovascular outcomes. In this study, we aimed to investigate the associations of ultra long-term blood pressure (BP) variability from childhood to midlife with vascular aging in midlife.

METHODS

Using data from the longitudinal cohort of Hanzhong Adolescent Hypertension Study, 2065 participants aged 6-18 years were enrolled and followed up with seven visits over 30 years. Ultra long-term BP variability (BPV) was defined as the standard deviation (SD) and average real variability (ARV) of BP over 30 years (seven visits). Vascular aging included arterial stiffness, carotid hypertrophy, and carotid plaque.

RESULTS

After adjusting for demographic variables, clinical characteristics and mean BP over 30 years, higher SD SBP , ARV SBP , SD DBP and ARV DBP since childhood were significantly associated with arterial stiffness in midlife. Additionally, higher SD DBP and ARV DBP were significantly associated with carotid hypertrophy and the presence of carotid plaque in midlife. When we used cumulative exposure to BP from childhood to midlife instead of mean BP as adjustment factors, results were similar. Furthermore, we found a significant association between long-term BPV from childhood to adolescence and the presence of carotid plaque, whereas long-term BPV from youth to adulthood is associated with arterial stiffness.

CONCLUSION

Higher BPV from childhood to adulthood was associated with vascular aging in midlife independently of mean BP or cumulative BP exposure. Therefore, long-term BPV from an early age may serve as a predictor of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) in later life.

Cardiovascular Precision Medicine and Remote Intervention Trial Rationale and Design

Background: It has recently been shown that excessive fluctuation in blood pressure readings for an individual over time is closely associated with poor outcomes, including increased risk of cardiovascular mortality, coronary heart disease and stroke. Fluctuations may be associated with inconsistent adherence to medical recommendations. This new marker of risk has not yet been incorporated into a monitoring and intervention strategy that seeks to reduce cardiovascular risk by identifying patients through an algorithm tied to their electronic health record (EHR). Methods: We describe the methods used in an innovative "proof of concept" trial using CP&R (Cardiovascular Precision Medicine and Remote Intervention). A blood pressure variability index is calculated for clinic patients via an EHR review. Consenting patients with excessive variability are offered a remote intervention aimed at improving adherence to medical recommendations. The outcomes include the ability to identify and engage the identified patients and the effects of the intervention on blood pressure variability using a pre-post comparison design without parallel controls. Conclusions: Our innovative approach uses a recently identified marker based on reviewing and manipulating EHR data tied to a remote intervention. This design reduces patient burden and supports equitable and targeted resource allocation, utilizing an objective criterion for behavioral risk. This study is registered under ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT05814562.

Long-term blood pressure variability and risk of cardiovascular diseases in populations with different blood pressure status: an ambispective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to investigate the correlation between long-term blood pressure variability (BPV) and the risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) among population with different blood pressure statuses (normotension, well-controlled hypertension, and uncontrolled hypertension).

METHODS

In this ambispective cohort study, CVD-free residents aged over 50 years were consecutively enrolled from two community health service centers (CHCs) in Tianjin, China from April 2017 to May 2017. Information on blood pressure was retrospectively extracted from electronic medical records of CHCs between January 2010 and May 2017, and the occurrence of new-onset CVDs was prospectively observed during follow-up until September 2019. Long-term variation of SBP and DBP was assessed using four indicators: SD, coefficient of variation (CV), average successive variability (ASV), and average real variability (ARV). Cox proportional hazards regression model was developed to identify the potential impact of BPV on the incidence of CVDs. The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was utilized to evaluate the predictive value of BPV indicators for the occurrence of CVDs.

RESULTS

Of 1275 participants included, 412 (32.3%) experienced new CVD events during the median 7.7 years of follow-up, with an incidence density of 499/10 000 person-year in the whole cohort. Cox regression analysis revealed that almost all SBP and DBP variability indicators (except for SBP-SD) were significantly related to the risk of CVDs, especially among individuals with well-controlled hypertension. A trend toward an increased risk of CVDs across BPV quartiles was also observed. Moderate predictive abilities of BPV were observed, with the area under ROC curves ranging between 0.649 and 0.736. For SBP variability, SD had the lowest predictive ability, whereas for DBP variability, ARV had the lowest predictive ability. No significant association of CVDs with SBP-SD was found in all analyses, no matter as a continuous or categorical variable.

CONCLUSION

Elevated long-term BPV is associated with an increased risk of CVDs, especially among individuals with well-controlled hypertension. CV and ASV had higher predictive values than SD and ARV.

Blood-based HYAL2 methylation as a potential marker for the preclinical detection of coronary heart disease and stroke

BACKGROUND

Coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke have become the leading cause of premature mortality and morbidity worldwide. Therefore, sensitive and accurate biomarkers for early detection of CHD and stroke are urgently needed for effective prevention and treatment. We aim to investigate the association between blood-based HYAL2 methylation and the risk of CHD and stroke in Chinese population.

METHODS

In a prospective nested case-control study comprising 171 CHD cases, 139 stroke cases, who developed the diseases after recruitment and 356 controls who remained healthy during the 2.5 years of follow-up time, the methylation level of HYAL2 in the peripheral blood was quantified using mass spectrometry, and the association was calculated by logistic regression adjusted for covariant.

RESULTS

Significant association between HYAL2 methylation in the peripheral blood and increased risk of preclinical CHD and stroke were identified [odds ratios (ORs) per - 10% methylation: 1.35-1.64, p ≤ 0.045 for HYAL2_CpG_1, HYAL2_CpG_2 and HYAL2_CpG_3 in CHD; ORs per - 10% methylation: 0.76-1.64, p ≤ 0.033 for HYAL2_CpG_2 and HYAL2_CpG_4 in stroke]. The association in CHD was further enhanced by female gender, younger age (< 70 years old), without the history of hypertension and cancer. The combination of four HYAL2 methylation sites showed an effective discrimination of CHD and stroke cases without hypertension from controls [area under curve (AUC) = 0.78 and 0.75, respectively].

CONCLUSIONS

This study presents a strong association of altered HYAL2 methylation in peripheral blood with preclinical CHD and stroke, providing a novel biomarker for risk assessment and early detection of cardiovascular diseases.

Geneenvironment interaction between phthalate exposure and pubertal genetic polymorphisms on blood pressure variability in children: Exploring the moderating effects of lifestyle behaviours

Phthalates (PAEs) are synthetic compounds extensively employed in consumer products. Blood pressure (BP) in children can vary, the degree of visit-to-visit BP variability (VVV) is at least partially independent of BP. The interactions between PAEs exposure, pubertal-related genetic susceptibility and lifestyles on childhood VVV are not investigated. This study utilized data from a cohort collected from Oct 2017-2020 in Xiamen, China. Seven urine PAE metabolites were measured. The long-term VVV was characterized employing the standard deviation (SD) and average real variability. We constructed a genetic risk score (GRS) of pubertal-related genes and healthy lifestyle scores. Exposed to high levels of mono-2-ethyl-5-hydroxyhexyl phthalate (MEHHP) (OR=1.43, 95 %CI=1.07, 1.92) and mono-2-ethyl-5-oxohexyl phthalate (OR=1.36, 95 % CI=1.01, 1.83) was related to increased SBP-SD, and the OR for high SBP-SD related to high GRS was 1.38 (95 % CI=1.02, 1.85). Compared to participants who had low GRS and low MEHHP exposure, participants exhibiting high GRS and MEHHP levels were more likely to experience high SBP-SD (OR=2.00, P<0.05). Individuals exhibiting low GRS, low MEHHP levels, and adhering to healthy lifestyles were associated with the least probability of experiencing high SBP-SD (OR=0.31, P<0.05). Increased PAEs exposure could elevate childhood systolic VVV, and exacerbated the adverse impact of pubertal-related genetic susceptibility on the high VVV of SBP; however, healthy lifestyles might alleviate these adverse effects. Promoting healthy lifestyles and reducing PAEs exposure for preventing elevated BP variability among children is important, especially for individuals with greater genetic susceptibility to early pubertal onset. ENVIRONMENTAL IMPLICATION: Blood pressure (BP) in children can vary, as a noninvasive, inexpensive and applicable method, the extent of visit-to-visit variability (VVV) is at least partially independent of BP. The interactions between phthalates (PAEs) exposure, variants of puberty-related genes and lifestyles on VVV are not investigated. Increased childhood systolic VVV might be associated with PAEs exposure, with the associations more pronounced combined with pubertal genetic susceptibility. Yet, healthy habits could partly eliminate such adverse effects. Our study underscores the importance of advocating for healthy lifestyles and reducing exposure to PAEs, especially among individuals with high genetic susceptibility to early puberty onset.

Sleep Apnea, Autonomic Disturbances, and Blood Pressure Variability

Augmented blood pressure variability has emerged as a quantity predictive of adverse cardiovascular outcomes. Among the range of intrinsic and extrinsic factors shown to increase night-time, circadian, short-term, and long-term blood pressure variations, the presence and severity of obstructive sleep apnea have emerged as one of the most prevalent and potent. Obstructive sleep apnea alters acutely the normal nocturnal equilibrium between sympathetic and parasympathetic tone, magnifying nocturnal blood pressure oscillations, and induces sustained autonomic aftereffects with the capacity to amplify short-term and intersessional blood pressure variabilities. The object of this brief review is to synthesize the current understanding of the potential interrelations between obstructive sleep apnea, the acute and sustained autonomic disturbances that it elicits, and beat-to-beat blood pressure fluctuation during sleep, nocturnal dipping status, and day-to-day blood pressure variability and the consequences of these perturbations for cardiovascular risk.

Reliability of beat-to-beat blood pressure variability in older adults

Blood pressure variability (BPV) is emerging as an important risk factor across numerous disease states, including cerebrovascular and neurodegenerative disease in older adults. However, there is no current consensus regarding specific use cases for the numerous available BPV metrics. There is also little published data supporting the ability to reliably measure BPV across metrics in older adults. The present study derived BPV metrics from continuous beat-to-beat blood pressure monitoring data. Two sequential 7 min waveforms were analyzed. Absolute and relative reliability testing was performed. Differences between antihypertensive medication users and non-users on BPV metric reliability was also assessed. All sequence and dispersion based BPV metrics displayed good test-retest reliability. A measure of BP instability displayed only moderate reliability. Systolic and diastolic average real variability displayed the highest levels of reliability at ICC = 0.87 and 0.82 respectively. Additionally, systolic average real variability was the most reliable metric in both the antihypertensive use group, and the no antihypertensive use group. In conclusion, beat-to-beat dispersion and sequence-based metrics of BPV can be reliably obtained in older adults using noninvasive continuous blood pressure monitoring. Average real variability may be the most reliable and specific beat-to-beat blood pressure variability metric due to its decreased susceptibility to outliers and low frequency blood pressure oscillations.

Reliability of beat-to-beat blood pressure variability in older adults

Blood pressure variability (BPV) is emerging as an important risk factor across numerous disease states, including cerebrovascular and neurodegenerative disease in older adults. However, there is no current consensus regarding specific use cases for the numerous available BPV metrics. There is also little published data supporting the ability to reliably measure BPV across metrics in older adults. BPV metrics were derived from continuous beat-to-beat blood pressure monitoring data. Two sequential 7-minute waveforms were analyzed. Absolute and relative reliability testing was performed. Differences between antihypertensive medication users and non-users on BPV metric reliability was also assessed. All sequence and dispersion based BPV metrics displayed good test-retest reliability. A measure of BP instability displayed only moderate reliability. Systolic and diastolic average real variability displayed the highest levels of reliability at ICC= .87 and .82 respectively. Additionally, systolic average real variability was the most reliable metric in both the antihypertensive use group, and the no antihypertensive use group. Beat-to-beat dispersion and sequence-based metrics of BPV can be reliably obtained from older adults using noninvasive continuous blood pressure monitoring. Average real variability may be the most reliable and specific beat-to-beat blood pressure variability metric due to its decreased susceptibility to outliers and low frequency blood pressure oscillations.

Integrating essence of "time" for blood pressure control in nephrology care

Controlling blood pressure (BP) is essential in the management of patients with chronic kidney disease. Reflecting the intrinsic variability of BP, several parameters of BP over time have been shown to predict adverse outcomes. Systolic BP time in target range has been recently proposed as a new promising parameter. Park et al. confirmed its prognostic value in patients with chronic kidney disease. We review the potential clinical usefulness and challenges of this parameter in nephrology care.

Role of Treg cell subsets in cardiovascular disease pathogenesis and potential therapeutic targets

In the genesis and progression of cardiovascular diseases involving both innate and adaptive immune responses, inflammation plays a pivotal and dual role. Studies in experimental animals indicate that certain immune responses are protective, while others exacerbate the disease. T-helper (Th) 1 cell immune responses are recognized as key drivers of inflammatory progression in cardiovascular diseases. Consequently, the CD4+CD25+FOXP3+ regulatory T cells (Tregs) are gaining increasing attention for their roles in inflammation and immune regulation. Given the critical role of Tregs in maintaining immune-inflammatory balance and homeostasis, abnormalities in their generation or function might lead to aberrant immune responses, thereby initiating pathological changes. Numerous preclinical studies and clinical trials have unveiled the central role of Tregs in cardiovascular diseases, such as atherosclerosis. Here, we review the roles and mechanisms of Treg subsets in cardiovascular conditions like atherosclerosis, hypertension, myocardial infarction and remodeling, myocarditis, dilated cardiomyopathy, and heart failure. While the precise molecular mechanisms of Tregs in cardiac protection remain elusive, therapeutic strategies targeting Tregs present a promising new direction for the prevention and treatment of cardiovascular diseases.

Long-term systolic blood pressure variability independent of mean blood pressure is associated with mortality and cardiovascular events: A systematic review and meta-analysis

The association between long-term systolic blood pressure variability (SBPV) and cardiovascular (CV) outcomes after being adjusted with mean blood pressure (BP) is questionable. This systematic review aims to evaluate the associations between mean BP adjusted long-term SBPV and CV outcomes. A systematic search was conducted on PubMed, Scopus, and Science Direct on January 4, 2023. A total of 9,944,254 subjects from 43 studies were included in this meta-analysis. Long-term SBPV increased the risk of all-cause mortality (HR 1.21 [95%CI 1.16-1.25], I2=100%), CV mortality (HR 1.10 [95%CI 1.07-11.4], I2 = 90%), MACE (HR 1.10 [1.07-1.13], I2 = 91%), cerebrovascular stroke (HR 1.22 [1.16-1.29], I2=100%), and myocardial infarction (HR 1.13 [95%CI (1.07-1.19)], I2=91%). European populations generally had higher risk compared to other continents. In conclusion, long-term SBPV is associated with all-cause mortality, CV mortality, MACE, MI, and stroke. Poor outcomes related to long-term SBPV seem more dominated by cerebrovascular than coronary events.

Acknowledging the impact of seasonal blood pressure variation in hypertensive CKD and non-CKD patients living in a Mediterranean climate

BACKGROUND

This study aims to assess seasonal blood pressure (BP) variation in chronic kidney disease (CKD) and non-CKD patients living in a Mediterranean climate, and to find out if this variation entails significant adjustment of treatment and if it impacts renal outcomes and mortality.

METHODS

This retrospective study included all hypertensive patients seen between February 2006 and April 2020 in two Lebanese clinics. Regression analyses were used to assess the association of seasonal BP variability and treatment adjustment with eGFR change from baseline, dialysis initiation and death.

RESULTS

A total of 398 patients of 64.2 ±13.9 years were followed for 51.1 ±44.3 months, 67% had eGFR< 60 mL/min. Mean systolic and diastolic BP was 137.7 ±14.7 and 76.5 ±9.5 mmHg respectively. Systolic and diastolic BP were significantly lower in the warm season in CKD and non-CKD patients (P<0.001). The majority (91.4%) needed seasonal treatment modifications. After adjustment to age, sex, baseline eGFR, BP and number of antihypertensive drugs, we found a significant loss of eGFR with treatment modifications in both seasons, double risk of dialysis with the increase of antihypertensive treatment in both seasons and a 2.5 more risk of death with reduced treatment in the warm season.

CONCLUSION

This study confirmed the seasonal BP variability in CKD and non-CKD patients from a Mediterranean climate. All types of treatment adjustment were associated with eGFR loss. Low BP in the warm season was highly associated with death.

Association of Blood Pressure Variability with Delirium in Patients with Critical Illness

BACKGROUND

The objective was to examine the association of blood pressure variability (BPV) during the first 24 h after intensive care unit admission with the likelihood of delirium and depressed alertness without delirium ("depressed alertness").

METHODS

This retrospective, observational, cohort study included all consecutive adult patients admitted to an intensive care unit at Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minnesota, from July 1, 2004, through October 31, 2015. The primary outcomes were delirium and delirium-free days, and the secondary outcomes included depressed alertness and depressed alertness-free days. Logistic regression was performed to determine the association of BPV with delirium and depressed alertness. Proportional odds regression was used to assess the association of BPV with delirium-free days and depressed alertness-free days.

RESULTS

Among 66,549 intensive care unit admissions, delirium was documented in 20.2% and depressed alertness was documented in 24.4%. Preserved cognition was documented in 55.4% of intensive care unit admissions. Increased systolic and diastolic BPV was associated with an increased odds of delirium and depressed alertness. The magnitude of the association per 5-mm Hg increase in systolic average real variability (the average of absolute value of changes between consecutive systolic blood pressure readings) was greater for delirium (odds ratio 1.34; 95% confidence interval 1.29-1.40; P < 0.001) than for depressed alertness (odds ratio 1.06; 95% confidence interval 1.02-1.10; P = 0.004). Increased systolic and diastolic BPV was associated with fewer delirium-free days but not with depressed alertness-free days.

CONCLUSIONS

BPV in the first 24 h after intensive care unit admission is associated with an increased likelihood of delirium and fewer delirium-free days.

Visit-to-visit blood pressure variability and the risk of cardiovascular disease: a prospective cohort analysis

Large blood pressure (BP) variability contributed to subclinical brain disease thus may be implicated in the development of cardiovascular disease (CVD). This study included 64,810 CVD-free participants who attended the first two examinations from the Kailuan study to investigate the association of BP variation, considering its magnitude, direction, and time interval prior to CVD diagnosis, with the risk of CVD in Chinese population. Magnitude and directional BP variability was calculated as absolute BP difference or BP difference value divided by mean BP over 2 sequential visits, respectively. During a median follow-up of 10.91 years, a total of 4129 cases of CVD. A large SBP variability (the highest vs the lowest tertile) was associated with a higher risk of CVD (adjusted HR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.22-1.41). The associations were stronger with longer time intervals, the hazard ratio (HR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) for CVD was 1.30 (95% CI, 1.20-1.39) at 1 years, 1.32 (1.18-1.40) at 3 years, and 1.34 (1.20-1.45) at 5 years. For directional SBP variability, rise in SBP was associated with an increased risk of CVD (HR, 6.17; 95% CI, 5.65-6.75), while fall in SBP was associated with a decreased risk of CVD (HR, 0.52; 95% CI, 0.46-0.59). Subgroup analysis showed the significant associations were only observed in men (Pint = 0.0010). Similar patterns were observed for DBP variability and CVD subtypes. The results indicated that a large SBP variation in rise direction was associated with an increased risk of incident CVD, especially in men.

Key indices of glycaemic variability for application in diabetes clinical practice

Near normal glycaemic control in diabetes consists to target daily glucose fluctuations and quarterly HbA1c oscillations in addition to overall glucose exposure. Consequently, the prerequisite is to define simple, and mathematically undisputable key metrics for the short- and long-term variability in glucose homeostasis. As the standard deviations (SD) of either glucose or HbA1c are dependent on their means, the coefficient of variation (CV = SD/mean) should be applied instead as it that avoids the correlation between the SD and mean values. A CV glucose of 36% is the most appropriate threshold between those with stable versus labile glucose homeostasis. However, when near normal mean glucose concentrations are achieved a lower CV threshold of <27 % is necessary for reducing the risk for hypoglycaemia to a minimal rate. For the long-term variability in glucose homeostasis, a CVHbA1c < 5 % seems to be a relevant recommendation for preventing adverse clinical outcomes.

Impact of Successive Office Blood Pressure Measurements During a Single Visit on Cardiovascular Risk Prediction: Analysis of CARTaGENE

BACKGROUND

Multiple office blood pressure (BP) readings correlate more closely with ambulatory BP than single readings. Whether they are associated with long-term outcomes and improve cardiovascular risk prediction is unknown. Our objective was to assess the long-term impact of multiple office BP readings.

METHODS

We used data from CARTaGENE, a population-based survey comprising individuals aged 40 to 70 years. Three BP readings (BP1, BP2, and BP3) at 2-minute intervals were obtained using a semiautomated device. They were averaged to generate BP1-2, BP2-3, and BP1-2-3 for systolic BP (SBP) and diastolic BP. Cardiovascular events (major adverse cardiovascular event [MACE]: cardiovascular death, stroke, and myocardial infarction) during a 10-year follow-up were recorded. Associations with MACE were obtained using adjusted Cox models. Predictive performance was assessed with 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease scores and their associated C statistics.

RESULTS

In the 17 966 eligible individuals, 2378 experienced a MACE during follow-up. Crude SBP values ranged from 122.5 to 126.5 mm Hg. SBP3 had the strongest association with MACE incidence (hazard ratio, 1.10 [1.05-1.15] per SD) and SBP1 the weakest (hazard ratio, 1.06 [1.01-1.10]). All models including SBP1 (SBP1, SBP1-2, and SBP1-2-3) were underperformed. At a given SBP value, the excess MACE risk conferred by SBP3 was 2× greater than SBP1. In atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease scores, SBP3 yielded the highest C statistic, significantly higher than most other SBP measures. In contrast to SBP, all diastolic BP readings yielded similar results.

CONCLUSIONS

Cardiovascular risk prediction is improved by successive office SBP values, especially when the first reading is discarded. These findings reinforce the necessity of using multiple office BP readings.

Blood Pressure Variability as a Risk Factor for Cardiovascular Disease: Which Antihypertensive Agents Are More Effective?

Blood pressure oscillations during different time scales, known as blood pressure variability (BPV), have become a focus of growing scientific interest. BPV can be measured at long-term (seasonal variability or visit-to-visit), at mid-term (differences in consecutive days or weeks) or at short-term (day-night differences or changes induced by other daily activities and conditions). An increased BPV, either at long, mid or short-term is associated with a poor cardiovascular prognosis independently of the amount of blood pressure elevation. There is scarce evidence on the effect of different antihypertensive treatments on BPV, but some observational and interventional studies suggest that calcium channel blockers in general, and particularly amlodipine, either in monotherapy or combined with renin-angiotensin system blockers, can reduce BPV more efficiently than other antihypertensive drugs or combinations. Nevertheless, there are several aspects of the relationship between BPV, antihypertensive treatment, and clinical outcomes that are still unknown, and more work should be performed before considering BPV as a therapeutical target in clinical practice.

Visit-to-Visit Variability in Fasting Blood Glucose Predicts the New-Onset Heart Failure: Results From Two Large Chinese Cohorts

Previous studies have hypothesized an association between higher fasting blood glucose (FBG) and heart failure (HF). However, FBG values fluctuate continuously over time, the association between FBG variability and the risk of HF is uncertain. We investigated the relationship between visit-to-visit variability in FBG and the risk of new-onset HF. This cohort study used data from a prospective Kailuan cohort (recruited during 2006-2007) and a retrospective cohort of family medicine patients from Hong Kong (recruited during 2000-2003) were followed up until December 31st, 2016, and December 31st, 2019, respectively, for the outcome of incident HF. Four indexes of variability were used, including standard deviation (SD), coefficient of variation (CV), variability independent of the mean (VIM), and average real variability (ARV). Cox regression was used to identify HF. In total, 98,554 and 22,217 subjects without preexisting HF from the Kailuan and Hong Kong cohorts were analyzed, respectively, with 1218 cases of incident HF in the former and 4,041 in the latter. Subjects in the highest quartile of FBG-CV had the highest risk of incident HF in both cohorts (Kailuan: HR 1.245, 95% CI 1.055-1.470); Hong Kong: HR 1.362, 95%CI 1.145-1.620; compared with the lowest quartile). Similar results were observed when using FBG-ARV, FBG-VIM, and FBG-SD. Meta-analysis showed similar results (highest versus lowest quartile: HR 1.30, 95%CI 1.15-1.47, P < 0.0001). As observed from 2 large, geographically distinct Chinese cohorts, a higher FBG variability was independently associated with higher risk of incident HF.

Cardiovascular variability, sociodemographics, and biomarkers of disease: the MIDUS study

Introduction: Like heart rate, blood pressure (BP) is not steady but varies over intervals as long as months to as short as consecutive cardiac cycles. This blood pressure variability (BPV) consists of regularly occurring oscillations as well as less well-organized changes and typically is computed as the standard deviation of multiple clinic visit-to-visit (VVV-BP) measures or from 24-h ambulatory BP recordings (ABPV). BP also varies on a beat-to-beat basis, quantified by methods that parse variation into discrete bins, e.g., low frequency (0.04-0.15 Hz, LF). However, beat-to-beat BPV requires continuous recordings that are not easily acquired. As a result, we know little about the relationship between LF-BPV and basic sociodemographic characteristics such as age, sex, and race and clinical conditions. Methods: We computed LF-BPV during an 11-min resting period in 2,118 participants in the Midlife in the US (MIDUS) study. Results: LF-BPV was negatively associated with age, greater in men than women, and unrelated to race or socioeconomic status. It was greater in participants with hypertension but unrelated to hyperlipidemia, hypertriglyceridemia, diabetes, elevated CRP, or obesity. LF-diastolic BPV (DBPV), but not-systolic BPV (SBPV), was negatively correlated with IL-6 and s-ICAM and positively correlated with urinary epinephrine and cortisol. Finally, LF-DBPV was negatively associated with mortality, an effect was rendered nonsignificant by adjustment by age but not other sociodemographic characteristics. Discussion: These findings, the first from a large, national sample, suggest that LF-BPV differs significantly from VVV-BP and ABPV. Confirming its relationship to sociodemographic risk factors and clinical outcomes requires further study with large and representative samples.

Quantifying Blood Pressure Visit-to-Visit Variability in the Real-World Setting: A Retrospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Visit-to-visit variability (VVV) in blood pressure values has been reported in clinical studies. However, little is known about VVV in clinical practice and whether it is associated with patient characteristics in real-world setting.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study to quantify VVV in systolic blood pressure (SBP) values in a real-world setting. We included adults (age ≥18 years) with at least 2 outpatient visits between January 1, 2014 and October 31, 2018 from Yale New Haven Health System. Patient-level measures of VVV included SD and coefficient of variation of a given patient's SBP across visits. We calculated patient-level VVV overall and by patient subgroups. We further developed a multilevel regression model to assess the extent to which VVV in SBP was explained by patient characteristics.

RESULTS

The study population included 537 218 adults, with a total of 7 721 864 SBP measurements. The mean age was 53.4 (SD 19.0) years, 60.4% were women, 69.4% were non-Hispanic White, and 18.1% were on antihypertensive medications. Patients had a mean body mass index of 28.4 (5.9) kg/m2 and 22.6%, 8.0%, 9.7%, and 5.6% had a history of hypertension, diabetes, hyperlipidemia, and coronary artery disease, respectively. The mean number of visits per patient was 13.3, over an average period of 2.4 years. The mean (SD) intraindividual SD and coefficient of variation of SBP across visits were 10.6 (5.1) mm Hg and 0.08 (0.04). These measures of blood pressure variation were consistent across patient subgroups defined by demographic characteristics and medical history. In the multivariable linear regression model, only 4% of the variance in absolute standardized difference was attributable to patient characteristics.

CONCLUSIONS

The VVV in real-world practice poses challenges for management of patients with hypertension based on blood pressure readings in outpatient settings and suggest the need to go beyond episodic clinic evaluation.

Systolic blood pressure time in target range and long-term outcomes in patients with ischemic cardiomyopathy

BACKGROUND

The relationship between the degree of systolic blood pressure (SBP) control and outcomes remains unclear in patients with ischemic cardiomyopathy (ICM). Current control metrics may not take into account the potential effects of SBP fluctuations over time on patients.

METHODS

This study was a post-hoc analysis of the surgical treatment of ischemic heart failure trial which enrolled 2,136 participants with ICM. Our SBP target range was defined as 110 to 130 mm Hg and the time in target range (TTR) was calculated by linear interpolation.

RESULTS

A total of 1,194 patients were included. Compared with the quartile 4 group (TTR 77.87%-100%), the adjusted hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals of all-cause mortality were 1.32 (0.98-1.78) for quartile 3 group (TTR 54.81%-77.63%), 1.40 (1.03-1.90) for quartile 2 group (TTR 32.59%-54.67%), and 1.53 (1.14-2.04) for quartile 1 group (TTR 0%-32.56%). Per 29.28% (1-SD) decrement in TTR significantly increased the risk of all-cause mortality (1.15 [1.04-1.26]). Similar results were observed in the cardiovascular (CV) mortality and the composite outcome of all-cause mortality plus CV rehospitalization, and in the subgroup analyses of either coronary artery bypass grafting or medical therapy, and different baseline SBP.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with ICM, the higher TTR was significantly associated with decreased risk of all-cause mortality, CV mortality and the composite outcome of all-cause mortality plus CV rehospitalization, regardless of whether the patient received coronary artery bypass grafting or medical therapy, and the level of baseline SBP. TTR may be a surrogate metric of long-term SBP control in patients with ICM.

Baseline Serum Biomarkers of Inflammation and Subsequent Visit-to-Visit Blood Pressure Variability: A Post Hoc Analysis of MESA

BACKGROUND

Higher blood pressure variability (BPV) is associated with the development of major vascular diseases, independent of mean blood pressure. However, despite data indicating that serum inflammatory markers are linked to hypertension, the association between serum inflammatory markers and BPV has not been studied in humans.

METHODS

This is a post hoc analysis of the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) study. The study exposure was tertiles of serum level of interleukin-6 (IL-6), C-reactive protein (CRP), d-dimer, plasmin-antiplasmin complex (PAP), fibrinogen antigen, and calibrated Factor VIII (%) at the baseline study visit. The primary outcome was visit-to-visit BPV measured as the residual standard deviation (rSD) of at least 4 study visits (2000-2018). Two logistic regression models were fit to the top tertile of rSD during follow-up: in Model 1, we adjusted for age, sex, and hypertension, and in Model 2, for patient age categories, sex, race/ethnicity, education, hypertension, diabetes, smoking, drinking, body mass index, lipid-lowering medication, and mean systolic blood pressure.

RESULTS

Our analysis included 5,483 patients, with a mean (SD) age of 61.4 (10.0) years, 52.9% female, and 40.7% White. In unadjusted analyses, all markers of inflammation were associated with higher BPV, but after adjustment, only IL-6 retained significance (P < 0.001). The odds ratio for the highest tertile of BPV and IL-6 was 1.49 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.28-1.74, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Baseline serum IL-6 was associated with increased subsequent BPV in a large multiracial cohort. Further investigation is needed to better understand the relationship between chronic inflammation and BPV.

Hour-to-hour variability of respiratory sleep indices and ambulatory blood pressure

STUDY OBJECTIVES

Respiratory sleep indices are traditionally reported on the basis of the average total sleep time. The relationship between the hour-to-hour variability of these parameters and blood pressure (BP) has not been reported.

METHODS

We evaluated the associations of the hour-to-hour variability of the apnea-hypopnea index (AHI), oxygen desaturation index (ODI), and lowest oxygen saturation with the 24-h ambulatory BP in patients with hypertension and newly diagnosed obstructive sleep apnea. A total of 147 patients underwent polysomnography, based on which obstructive sleep apnea was diagnosed in 106 patients; these patients underwent 24-h ambulatory BP monitoring within the next 30 days. Each polysomnogram was divided into hourly reports to calculate the variability of the respiratory sleep indices. Variability independent of the mean was considered the primary measure of variability.

RESULTS

The median number of hourly polysomnogram reports was 7 (range, 4-8). The hour-to-hour variability of both AHI and ODI, but not of the lowest oxygen saturation, was correlated with the 24-h pulse pressure, 24-h systolic BP, and awake systolic BP (p < 0.05 for all). The fully adjusted linear regression analysis indicated that the hour-to-hour variability of AHI and ODI remained associated with the 24-h pulse pressure (AHI: β coefficient, 0.264 [95% CI = 0.033-0.495], p = 0.026; ODI: β coefficient, 0.450 [95% CI = 0.174-0.726], p = 0.002).

CONCLUSIONS

The hour-to-hour variability of AHI and ODI is independently associated with the 24-h pulse pressure. Further investigations are warranted to evaluate the clinical relevance of this new-found association.

Long-Term Visit-To-Visit Blood Pressure Variability and Risk of Diabetes Mellitus in Chinese Population: A Retrospective Population-Based Study

Objectives: To examine the association between visit-to-visit blood pressure variability (BPV) and incident diabetes mellitus (DM) risk in a Chinese population. Methods: Data comes from China Health and Nutrition Survey (n = 15,084). BPV was estimated as the average real variability (ARV) using at least three BP measurements from the year preceding the event and was divided into quartiles. Participants were also categorized into 9 groups on the basis of combinations of systolic BPV (SBPV) and diastolic BPV (DBPV) tertiles. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used. Results: During a median follow-up of 16.8 years, 1,030 (6.8%) participants developed diabetes (incidence rate: 4.65/1,000 person-years). The HRs (95% CIs) for the highest quartile (vs. the lowest quartile) of SBPV and DBPV were 1.60 (1.30-1.97) and 1.37 (1.13-1.67), respectively. Participants with both highest SBPV and DBPV tertile had an ≈89% higher risk of DM (HR, 1.89; 95% CI, 1.47-2.42) compared with those in the both SBPV and DBPV tertile 1 group. Conclusion: Higher SBP ARV and DBP ARV were independently associated with increased risk of incident DM, which was augmented when both presented together.

Long-term variability in physiological measures in relation to mortality and epigenetic aging: prospective studies in the USA and China

BACKGROUND

Visit-to-visit body weight variability (BWV), pulse rate variability (PRV), and blood pressure variability (BPV) have been respectively linked to multiple health outcomes. The associations of the combination of long-term variability in physiological measures with mortality and epigenetic age acceleration (EAA) remain largely unknown.

METHODS

We constructed a composite score of physiological variability (0-3) of large variability in BWV, PRV, and BPV (the top tertiles) in 2006/2008-2014/2016 in the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) and 2011-2015 in the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS). All-cause mortality was documented through 2018. EAA was calculated using thirteen DNA methylation-based epigenetic clocks among 1047 participants in a substudy of the HRS. We assessed the relation of the composite score to the risk of mortality among 6566 participants in the HRS and 6906 participants in the CHARLS by Cox proportional models and then investigated its association with EAA using linear regression models.

RESULTS

A higher score of variability was associated with higher mortality risk in both cohorts (pooled hazard ratio [HR] per one-point increment, 1.27; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.18, 1.39; P-heterogeneity = 0.344), after adjustment for multiple confounders and baseline physiological measures. Specifically, each SD increment in BWV, PRV, and BPV was related to 21% (95% CI: 15%, 28%), 6% (0%, 13%), and 12% (4%, 19%) higher hazard of mortality, respectively. The composite score was significantly related to EAA in second-generation clocks trained on health outcomes (e.g., standardized coefficient = 0.126 in the Levine clock, 95% CI: 0.055, 0.196) but not in most first-generation clocks trained on chronological age.

CONCLUSIONS

Larger variability in physiological measures was associated with a higher risk of mortality and faster EAA.

Within-Person Blood Pressure Variability During Hospitalization and Clinical Outcomes Following First-Ever Acute Ischemic Stroke

BACKGROUND

Uncertainty remains over the relationship between blood pressure (BP) variability (BPV), measured in hospital settings, and clinical outcomes following acute ischemic stroke (AIS). We examined the association between within-person systolic blood pressure (SBP) variability (SBPV) during hospitalization and readmission-free survival, all-cause readmission, or all-cause mortality 1 year after AIS.

METHODS

In a cohort of 862 consecutive patients (age [mean ± SD] 75 ± 15 years, 55% women) with AIS (2005-2018, follow-up through 2019), we measured SBPV as quartiles of standard deviations (SD) and coefficient of variation (CV) from a median of 16 SBP readings obtained throughout hospitalization.

RESULTS

In the cumulative cohort, the measured SD and CV of SBP in mmHg were 16 ± 6 and 10 ± 5, respectively. The hazard ratios (HR) for readmission-free survival between the highest vs. lowest quartiles were 1.44 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.04-1.81) for SD and 1.29 (95% CI 0.94-1.78) for CV after adjustment for demographics and comorbidities. Similarly, incident readmission or mortality remained consistent between the highest vs. lowest quartiles of SD and CV (readmission: HR 1.29 [95% CI 0.90-1.78] for SD, HR 1.29 [95% CI 0.94-1.78] for CV; mortality: HR 1.15 [95% CI 0.71-1.87] for SD, HR 0.86 [95% CI 0.55-1.36] for CV).

CONCULSIONS

In patients with first AIS, SBPV measured as quartiles of SD or CV based on multiple readings throughout hospitalization has no independent prognostic implications for the readmission-free survival, readmission, or mortality. This underscores the importance of overall patient care rather than a specific focus on BP parameters during hospitalization for AIS.

Bidirectional association between SBP variability and arterial stiffness in patients with chronic kidney disease: findings from KNOW-CKD study

OBJECTIVE

Studies on the mutual relationship between blood pressure (BP) variability and arterial stiffness using time-dependent changes in arterial stiffness are scarce.

METHODS

In this prospective cohort of Korean patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) G1-G5 without kidney replacement therapy, we studied the bidirectional association between visit-to-visit SBP variability (VVSV) and arterial stiffness in 1036 participants who underwent brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV) measurement at baseline and year four. We constructed multivariable logistic regression models using two analytical sets. First, we determined the VVSV [standard deviation (SD)] of all SBP readings over 4 years, and then calculated the odds ratios (ORs) for arterial stiffness progression according to tertiles of VVSV. Arterial stiffness progression was defined as at least 75th percentile of the difference in baPWV between baseline and year four. Second, we analysed the ORs for at least 75th percentile of the 4-year VVSV according to tertiles of baseline baPWV.

RESULTS

Compared with the lowest tertile of VVSV (SD), the ORs [95% confidence interval (95% CI)] for arterial stiffness progression were 1.42 (0.96-2.10) and 1.64 (1.11-2.43) for the middle and highest tertiles, respectively. In the second analysis based on tertiles of baseline baPWV, the ORs for at least 75th percentile of VVSV (SD) were 1.41 (95% CI, 0.95-2.10) and 1.64 (95% CI, 1.04-2.61) for the middle and highest tertiles, respectively. This association was similar in both analytical models when VVSV and baPWV were treated as continuous variables.

CONCLUSION

There is a bidirectional relationship between BP variability and arterial stiffness in patients with CKD.

Comparing statistical methods in assessing the prognostic effect of biomarker variability on time-to-event clinical outcomes

Background

In recent years there is increasing interest in modeling the effect of early longitudinal biomarker data on future time-to-event or other outcomes. Sometimes investigators are also interested in knowing whether the variability of biomarkers is independently predictive of clinical outcomes. This question in most applications is addressed via a two-stage approach where summary statistics such as variance are calculated in the first stage and then used in models as covariates to predict clinical outcome in the second stage. The objective of this study is to compare the relative performance of various methods in estimating the effect of biomarker variability.

Methods

A joint model and 4 different two-stage approaches (naïve, landmark analysis, time-dependent Cox model, and regression calibration) were illustrated using data from a large multi-center randomized phase III trial, the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study (OHTS), regarding the association between the variability of intraocular pressure (IOP) and the development of primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG). The model performance was also evaluated in terms of bias using simulated data from the joint model of longitudinal IOP and time to POAG. The parameters for simulation were chosen after OHTS data, and the association between longitudinal and survival data was introduced via underlying, unobserved, and error-free parameters including subject-specific variance.

Results

In the OHTS data, joint modeling and two-stage methods reached consistent conclusion that IOP variability showed no significant association with the risk of POAG. In the simulated data with no association between IOP variability and time-to-POAG, all the two-stage methods (except the naïve approach) provided a reliable estimation. When a moderate effect of IOP variability on POAG was imposed, all the two-stage methods underestimated the true association as compared with the joint modeling while the model-based two-stage method (regression calibration) resulted in the least bias.

Conclusion

Regression calibration and joint modelling are the preferred methods in assessing the effect of biomarker variability. Two-stage methods with sample-based measures should be used with caution unless there exists a relatively long series of longitudinal measurements and/or strong effect size (NCT00000125).

Visit-to-visit SBP variability and risk of atrial fibrillation in middle-aged and older populations

OBJECTIVE

We sought to examine the relationship between visit-to-visit variability of SBP and incident atrial fibrillation in middle-aged and older population.

METHODS

This prospective cohort study included 26 999 participants aged 50 years or older at study entry. Visit-to-visit variability of SBP was defined as the average real variability (ARV) of three values of SBP from the examinations of 2006, 2008, and 2010. We categorized participants into four groups according to the quartiles of ARV. Incident atrial fibrillation cases were identified via ECG during biennial resurveys, and reviewing medical insurance record and discharge registers. We used Cox regression models to evaluate the hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for incident atrial fibrillation.

RESULTS

After an average follow-up of 9.24 years, a total of 420 atrial fibrillation cases were identified. The incidence of atrial fibrillation from the lowest to the highest quartiles of SBP variability were 1.23, 1.53, 1.81 and 2.19 per 1000 person-years, respectively. After adjusting for potential confounders, including mean blood pressure, we found a graded association between SBP variability and risk of atrial fibrillation. Participants in the third quartile and the highest quartile were associated with 35 and 53% higher risk of developing atrial fibrillation, respectively, compared with participants in the lowest quartile [hazard ratio (95% CI), 1.35 (1.01-1.82) and 1.53 (1.15-2.04)]. The results persisted across sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSION

Increased visit-to-visit variability of SBP is a strong predictor of incident atrial fibrillation in middle-aged and older population. Evaluation of long-term SBP variability could help to identify individuals at higher risk of atrial fibrillation.

Visit-to-visit blood pressure variability and mortality and cardiovascular outcomes after acute myocardial infarction

The relationship between visit-to-visit blood pressure variability (BPV) and cardiovascular outcomes remains unclear. Our study assessed the prognostic implications of visit-to-visit BPV in patients after acute myocardial infarction (AMI). The present study enrolled 7,375 patients who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention for AMI and at least five measurements of blood pressure after hospital discharge. Visit-to-visit BPV was estimated as variability independent of mean. The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality. The secondary endpoints were major cardiovascular events (the composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, and ischemic stroke) and hospitalization for heart failure. During a median follow-up of 5.8 years, adjusted risks of all-cause mortality, major cardiovascular events, and hospitalization for heart failure continuously increased as systolic BPV and diastolic BPV increased. Patients in the highest quartile of systolic BPV (versus lowest) had increased risk of all-cause mortality (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 1.51 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.23-1.85]), major cardiovascular events (aHR 1.31 [95% CI 1.1-1.55]), and hospitalization for heart failure (aHR 2.15 [95% CI 1.49-3.1]). Patients in the highest quartile of diastolic BPV was also associated with all-cause mortality (aHR 1.39 [95% CI 1.14-1.7]), major cardiovascular events (aHR 1.29 [95% CI 1.08-1.53]), and hospitalization for heart failure (aHR 2.01[95% CI 1.4-2.87]). Both systolic and diastolic BPV improved the predictive ability of the GRACE (Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events) risk score for both all-cause mortality and major cardiovascular events. Higher visit-to-visit BPV was associated with increased risks of mortality and cardiovascular events in patients after AMI.

Blood Pressure Fluctuation During Hospitalization and Clinical Outcomes Within 3 Months After Ischemic Stroke

BACKGROUND

Increased blood pressure (BP) variability is positively associated with the risks of cerebral small-vessel disease, cardiovascular events and death. However, no large clinical trials have been published to demonstrate the effect of BP fluctuations during hospitalization on clinical outcomes after ischemic stroke.

METHODS

A total of 3972 patients with acute ischemic stroke from 26 participating hospitals were included in this study, and BP fluctuations were calculated using BP data collected during the hospitalization. The primary outcome was composite outcome of death or major disability (modified Rankin Scale score ≥3) within 3 months and secondary outcomes included death, vascular events, and composite outcomes (death or vascular events).

RESULTS

Compared with the lowest quartile of systolic BP fluctuations, the adjusted odds ratio associated with the highest quartile was 1.33 ([95% CI, 1.05-1.68]; P_trend=0.011) for primary outcome; the adjusted hazard ratios were 2.89 ([95% CI, 1.58-5.32]; P_trend<0.001) for death, 1.48 ([95% CI, 0.83-2.65]; P_trend=0.071) for vascular events, and 2.06 ([95% CI, 1.32-3.23]; P_trend<0.001) for composite outcome. Similar results were found for diastolic BP. Multivariable adjusted restricted cubic spline analysis showed a linear relationship between systolic BP fluctuations and the primary outcome (P for linearity=0.0009).

CONCLUSIONS

Larger BP fluctuations during hospitalization were associated with an increased risk of adverse outcomes at 3 months after ischemic stroke onset, independent of mean BP. These findings suggested that BP fluctuation should be a risk factor of adverse outcomes after ischemic stroke, which provided a new insight for BP management strategy.

Association between visit-to-visit blood pressure variability and adverse events in coronary artery disease patients after coronary intervention

Blood pressure variability (BPV) is independently associated with higher cardiovascular risks. However, whether BPV is associated with poor outcomes for coronary artery disease (CAD) patients after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) remained undetermined. We aimed to investigate the relationship between BPV and the outcomes of CAD patients undergoing PCI. Two thousand seven hundred and sixty-two CAD patients (1938 males, mean age 69.6 ± 12.9) who received PCI at Taipei Veterans General Hospital from 2006 to 2015 with multiple blood pressure measurements before and after the index PCI were enrolled. We calculated the standard deviation of systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, and pulse pressure as parameters of BPV. The primary endpoint was the composite of major adverse cardiovascular events [MACE comprising of cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction (MI), and non-fatal stroke] and heart failure hospitalization (HHF). The key secondary endpoint was MACE. Both pre-PCI and post-PCI BPV were associated with CV events even after adjusting for co-morbidities and mean blood pressure. In Cox analysis, for every 1 mmHg increase in systolic BPV, the hazard ratio for the MACE + HHF, MACE, HHF, and cardiovascular death was 1.04 (95%CI: 1.03-1.05), 1.04 (95%CI: 1.02-1.05), 1.05 (95%CI: 1.04-1.06), and 1.06 (95%CI: 1.03-1.09), respectively. The association between BPV and cardiovascular risk is independent of blood pressure control status. The prognostic value of BPV was superior to mean blood pressure in both pre-PCI and post-PCI period. BPV is independently associated with cardiovascular events after PCI and has a better prognostic value than mean blood pressure suggesting the importance of maintaining stable blood pressure for CAD patients.

Blood Pressure Variability and Heart Failure Hospitalization: Results From the Women's Health Initiative

INTRODUCTION

Little is known about the relationships between annual visit-to-visit blood pressure variability and heart failure subphenotypes. The aim of this analysis was to examine the association between blood pressure variability and incident heart failure with preserved and reduced ejection fraction.

METHODS

Data from 23,918 postmenopausal women enrolled in the Women's Health Initiative Hormone Therapy Trials were analyzed. Blood pressure was measured at baseline (1993‒1998) and then annually through 2005. Variability was defined as the SD of the mean blood pressure across visits or the SD of the participant's regression line for blood pressure across visits. The outcome was the first heart failure hospitalization. Heart failure ascertainment and adjudications were through March 31, 2018.

RESULTS

During a mean follow-up of 15.8 years, 913 incident cases of heart failure with preserved ejection fraction and 421 cases of heart failure with reduced ejection fraction were identified. In fully adjusted models, including mean longitudinal systolic and diastolic blood pressure and time-varying coronary events interim to heart failure hospitalization, women in the highest versus in the lowest quartile of SD of the mean systolic blood pressure were at a statistically significantly higher risk of heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (hazard ratio [95% CI]=1.61 [1.12, 2.31]) but not of heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (1.18 [0.70,1.96]). Conversely, the hazard ratio (95% CI) for the highest versus lowest quartile of SD of the mean diastolic blood pressure was 1.56 (0.89, 2.74) for heart failure with reduced ejection fraction and 1.19 (0.85,1.65) for heart failure with preserved ejection fraction. Results attenuated for SD of the participant's regression line when additionally adjusted for the temporal trend of systolic and diastolic blood pressure.

CONCLUSIONS

Greater systolic blood pressure variability was associated with a higher risk of heart failure with preserved ejection fraction independent of mean blood pressure and coronary events interim to heart failure hospitalization.

Update on Hypertension Research in 2021

In 2021, 217 excellent manuscripts were published in Hypertension Research. Editorial teams greatly appreciate the authors' contribution to hypertension research progress. Here, our editorial members have summarized twelve topics from published work and discussed current topics in depth. We hope you enjoy our special feature, "Update on Hypertension Research in 2021".

Association of Visit-to-Visit Variability in Fasting Plasma Glucose with Digestive Cancer Risk

Background and Aims. The aim of this study is to investigate the association between visit-to-visit variability in fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and the risk of digestive cancers among individuals with and without diabetes. Methods. Using data from Kailuan cohort, a prospective population-based study, individuals who had at least two measurements of FPG between 2006 and 2012 without prior cancer were included in this study. Four indexes of variability were used, including standard deviation (SD), coefficient of variation (CV), variability independent of the mean (VIM), and average successive variability (ARV). Cox regression was used to evaluate the relationship between the quartiles of FPG variability and digestive cancers. Results. A total of 98,161 individuals were studied. Over a mean follow-up of $9.32\pm 0.81$ years, 1103 individuals developed incident digestive cancer (1.21 per 1000 person-years). Compared to the individuals in the lowest quartile, those in the highest quartile of FPG variability by SD had 38.7% higher risk of developing overall digestive cancers after adjusting for the significant confounders (hazard ratio, 1.387; 95% confidence interval, 1.160-1.659; $P=0.0003$ ). Higher FPG variability was associated with significantly higher risks of colorectal cancer (fully adjusted HR 1.432, 95% CI [1.073-1.912], $P=0.015$ ) and pancreatic cancer (fully adjusted HR 2.105, 95% CI [1.024-4.329], $P=0.043$ ), but not liver cancer (fully adjusted HR 1.427, 95% CI [0.973-2.092], $P=0.069$ ) or esophageal and gastric cancer (fully adjusted HR 1.139, 95% CI [0.776-1.670], $P=0.506$ ). Subgroup analyses showed that individuals who were younger (<65 years), male, and those without diabetes experienced a predominantly higher risk of developing digestive cancers. Similar results were observed when using CV, VIM, and ARV. Conclusions. FPG variability was significantly associated with increasing risk of digestive cancers, especially for pancreatic and colorectal cancer. Our study suggested a potential role of FPG variability in risk stratification of digestive cancers. Approaches that reduce FPG variability may lower the risks of incident digestive cancers among the general population. This trial is registered with ChiCTR-TNRC-11001489.

Blood pressure variability and the development of hypertensive organ damage in the general population

Increasing blood pressure variability (BPV) has been reported to be a strong predictor of cardiovascular events in patients with hypertension. However, the effects of BPV in the general population have not been intensively studied. The present study was designed to investigate a possible relationship between year-to-year BPV and hypertensive target organ damage (TOD) in a relatively low-risk general population. A total of 5489 consecutive patients (mean age 58.6 ± 10.7 years) who visited our hospital for an annual physical checkup for five consecutive years during 2008-2013 were enrolled in this study. The average systolic and diastolic blood pressures and pulse pressure were calculated, as well as standard deviation, coefficient of variation, and average real variability in blood pressures. Cross-sectional analysis was conducted and subjects without TOD at baseline (n = 3115) were followed up (median 1827 days) with the endpoint of TOD, defined as left ventricular hypertrophy on electrocardiogram or declining glomerular filtration rate. At baseline, BPV was closely associated with TOD. During follow-up, left ventricular hypertrophy and declining glomerular filtration rate developed in 189 and 400 subjects, respectively. Although the standard deviation for systolic blood pressure and pulse pressure predicted future development of TOD in a univariate analysis, BPV was not a significant determinant of incident TOD in adjusted Cox hazard models. These results suggest that year-to-year BPV is a marker of the presence of TOD in the general population but does not independently predict future TOD.

Risk Factors for Silent Brain Infarcts and White Matter Disease in a Real-World Cohort Identified by Natural Language Processing

OBJECTIVE

To assess the frequency of silent brain infarcts (SBIs) and white matter disease (WMD) and associations with stroke risk factors (RFs) in a real-world population.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This was an observational study of patients 50 years or older in the Kaiser Permanente Southern California health system from January 1, 2009, through June 30, 2019, with head computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging for nonstroke indications and no history of stroke, transient ischemic attack, or dementia. A natural language processing (NLP) algorithm was applied to the electronic health record to identify individuals with reported SBIs or WMD. Multivariable Poisson regression estimated risk ratios of demographic characteristics, RFs, and scan modality on the presence of SBIs or WMD.

RESULTS

Among 262,875 individuals, the NLP identified 13,154 (5.0%) with SBIs and 78,330 (29.8%) with WMD. Stroke RFs were highly prevalent. Advanced age was strongly associated with increased risk of SBIs (adjusted relative risks [aRRs], 1.90, 3.23, and 4.72 for those aged in their 60s, 70s, and ≥80s compared with those in their 50s) and increased risk of WMD (aRRs, 1.79, 3.02, and 4.53 for those aged in their 60s, 70s, and ≥80s compared with those in their 50s). Magnetic resonance imaging was associated with a reduced risk of SBIs (aRR, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.83 to 0.91) and an increased risk of WMD (aRR, 2.86; 95% CI, 2.83 to 2.90). Stroke RFs had modest associations with increased risk of SBIs or WMD.

CONCLUSION

An NLP algorithm can identify a large cohort of patients with incidentally discovered SBIs and WMD. Advanced age is strongly associated with incidentally discovered SBIs and WMD.

Blood pressure variability and structural brain changes: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Blood pressure variability (BPV) has been linked with cognitive impairment and dementia. However, the pathophysiological mechanisms by which BPV affects cognition are unclear. This systematic review aims to assess the links between different BPV measures and white and grey matter structures.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The following databases were searched from inception through to January 2021; EMBASE, MEDLINE, EMCARE and SCOPUS. Studies that reported on the relationship between within-individual BPV (short, medium or long-term variability) or a circadian blood pressure (BP) measurement and MRI assessed brain structures were included. Overall, 20 studies met the criteria and were included, of which 11 studies looked at short-term BPV, eight articles investigated visit-to-visit BPV and one study looked at a compositional BPV measurement. Due to heterogeneity in study samples, meta-analysis was not possible. Across the included studies, associations between MRI indices and BP dipping patterns were mixed; higher long-term BPV and higher sleep systolic BPV was found to be associated with lower whole brain volume and hippocampal volume.

CONCLUSION

Increased BPV, in particular systolic long-term and systolic night-time BPV, appears to be associated with lower brain volume and hippocampal volume. This highlights the adverse effect that increased BPV has upon the brain, potentially contributing to cognitive decline, including dementia, in late-life.

Variability independent of mean blood pressure as a real-world measure of cardiovascular risk

Background

Individual-level blood pressure (BP) variability, independent of mean BP levels, has been associated with increased risk for cardiovascular events in cohort studies and clinical trials using standardized BP measurements. The extent to which BP variability relates to cardiovascular risk in the real-world clinical practice setting is unclear. We sought to determine if BP variability in clinical practice is associated with adverse cardiovascular outcomes using clinically generated data from the electronic health record (EHR).

Methods

We identified 42,482 patients followed continuously at a single academic medical center in Southern California between 2013 and 2019 and calculated their systolic and diastolic BP variability independent of the mean (VIM) over the first 3 years of the study period. We then performed multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression to examine the association between VIM and both composite and individual outcomes of interest (incident myocardial infarction, heart failure, stroke, and death).

Findings

Both systolic (HR, 95% CI 1.22, 1.17-1.28) and diastolic VIM (1.24, 1.19-1.30) were positively associated with the composite outcome, as well as all individual outcome measures. These findings were robust to stratification by age, sex and clinical comorbidities. In sensitivity analyses using a time-shifted follow-up period, VIM remained significantly associated with the composite outcome for both systolic (1.15, 1.11-1.20) and diastolic (1.18, 1.13-1.22) values.

Interpretation

VIM derived from clinically generated data remains associated with adverse cardiovascular outcomes and represents a risk marker beyond mean BP, including in important demographic and clinical subgroups. The demonstrated prognostic ability of VIM derived from non-standardized BP readings indicates the utility of this measure for risk stratification in a real-world practice setting, although residual confounding from unmeasured variables cannot be excluded.

Funding

This study was funded in part by National Institutes of Health grants R01-HL134168, R01-HL131532, R01-HL143227, R01-HL142983, U54-AG065141; R01-HL153382, K23-HL136853, K23-HL153888, and K99-HL157421; China Scholarship Council grant 201806260086; Academy of Finland (Grant no: 321351); Emil Aaltonen Foundation; Finnish Foundation for Cardiovascular Research.