Modeling control of rabies outbreaks in red fox populations to evaluate culling, vaccination, and vaccination combined with fertility control

Fertility Control for Wildlife: A European Perspective

Trends of human population growth and landscape development in Europe show that wildlife impacts are escalating. Lethal methods, traditionally employed to mitigate these impacts, are often ineffective, environmentally hazardous and face increasing public opposition. Fertility control is advocated as a humane tool to mitigate these impacts. This review describes mammalian and avian wildlife contraceptives' effect on reproduction of individuals and populations, delivery methods, potential costs and feasibility of using fertility control in European contexts. These contexts include small, isolated wildlife populations and situations in which lethal control is either illegal or socially unacceptable, such as urban settings, national parks and areas where rewilding occurs. The review highlights knowledge gaps, such as impact of fertility control on recruitment, social and spatial behaviour and on target and non-target species, provides a decision framework to assist decisions about the potential use of wildlife fertility control, and suggests eight reasons for Europe to invest in this area. Although developing and registering contraceptives in Europe will have substantial costs, these are relatively small when compared to wildlife's economic and environmental impact. Developing safe and effective contraceptives will be essential if European countries want to meet public demand for methods to promote human-wildlife coexistence.

Current Status of Rabies and Its Eradication in Eastern and Southeastern Europe

The objective of this paper is to provide an overview of the current status of rabies in Europe, with special emphasis on Croatia and Southeast and East Europe. Due to the systematic implementation of a rabies eradication program by oral vaccination of wild animals, by the end of the 20th century, most West and Central European countries were rabies-free. The EU goal was to eradicate rabies in wildlife and domestic animals by 2020. No matter how achievable the goal seemed to be, the disease is still present in the eastern part of the EU, as was notified in 2020 by two member states—Poland and Romania. Croatia has been rabies-free for the last seven years but given that it borders a non-EU country in which a case of rabies was confirmed in 2020, it will continue to contribute to the maintenance of the rabies-free region. A rabies-free EU can only be achieved by continuous oral vaccination, coordination and a regional approach. The prevention of reintroductions from bordering countries in which rabies has not been eradicated yet, and the support for the eradication efforts made by these countries, are goals still pending.

Could a rabies incursion spread in the northern Australian dingo population? Development of a spatial stochastic simulation model

Australia, home to the iconic dingo, is currently free from canine rabies. However northern Australia, including Indigenous communities with large free-roaming domestic dog populations, is at increased risk of rabies incursion from nearby Indonesia. We developed a novel agent-based stochastic spatial rabies spread model to evaluate the potential spread of rabies within the dingo population of the Northern Peninsula Area (NPA) region of northern Australia. The model incorporated spatio-temporal features specific to this host-environment system, including landscape heterogeneity, demographic fluctuations, dispersal movements and dingo ecological parameters—such as home range size and density—derived from NPA field studies. Rabies spread between dingo packs in nearly 60% of simulations. In such situations rabies would affect a median of 22 dingoes (approximately 14% of the population; 2.5–97.5 percentiles: 2–101 dingoes) within the study area which covered 1,131 km², and spread 0.52 km/week for 191 days. Larger outbreaks occurred in scenarios in which an incursion was introduced during the dry season (vs. wet season), and close to communities (vs. areas with high risk of interaction between dingoes and hunting community dogs). Sensitivity analyses revealed that home range size and duration of infectious clinical period contributed most to the variance of outputs. Although conditions in the NPA would most likely not support a sustained propagation of the disease in the dingo population, due to the predicted number of infected dingoes following a rabies incursion and the proximity of Indigenous communities to dingo habitat, we conclude that the risk for human transmission could be substantial.

Although Australia is free from canine rabies, an incursion from nearby rabies-infected Indonesian islands is a realistic threat. The ubiquitous presence of dingoes in the wild, in association with large populations of free-roaming domestic dogs from northern Australian Indigenous communities, increases the risk of a rabies outbreak. Using a newly developed simulation model, we investigated the potential spread of rabies in a northern Australian dingo population. Nearly 60% of model simulations resulted in more than one pack infected. When spread did occur, outbreaks affected a median of 22 dingoes (an estimated 14% of the population in this area). The duration of infection, proportion of the population infected and spatial spread of the outbreak was greatest when rabies was introduced during the dry season and close to communities. Our results demonstrate that an incursion of rabies into the northern Australian dingo population would likely lead to a rabies outbreak, which would in turn pose a substantial threat to Indigenous communities in northern Australia.

Spatial distribution of sarcoptic mange (Sarcoptes scabiei) in urban foxes (Vulpes vulpes) in Great Britain as determined by citizen science

Urban areas may support high densities of wild carnivores, and pathogens can strongly influence carnivore populations. Red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) are hosts of sarcoptic mange (Sarcoptes scabiei), which infects numerous species, and transmission can be density dependent. In Great Britain, urban red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) have recently increased in population density and undergone range expansions. Here we investigate corresponding changes in urban fox mange prevalence. We predicted a higher prevalence closer to historic epi/enzootics and lower prevalence where urban features reduce fox density and movements, i.e. large areas of public green space, and fragmented habitat, as measured by road length and urban perimeter shape complexity. We visually assessed mange symptoms from georeferenced images of urban foxes submitted online by the public, thus surveying private land on a national scale. We measured the proportion of foxes apparently showing mange and used SATSCAN to identify spatial clusters of high infection risk. Landscape features were extracted from urban layers in GIS to determine associations. Although mange was widespread, we identified a single cluster of high prevalence (37.1%) in Northwest and Central England, which exceeded double mean prevalence overall (15.1%) and mirrors the northward expansion of urban fox distribution. Prevalence was positively correlated with perimeter shape complexity and negatively correlated with distance to the nearest city with mange, although the latter association was weak. Our findings show that citizen science can effectively monitor diseases with highly visible symptoms and suggest that fox movements are influential in explaining spatial patterns of prevalence.

Wildlife and Bait Density Monitoring to Describe the Effectiveness of a Rabies Vaccination Program in Foxes

Fox rabies has been eliminated from vast areas of West and Central Europe, but cases still occur in the Balkans. Oral vaccination is an effective method for reducing the incidence of the disease in wildlife, but it requires monitoring if bait density is adequate for the density of the wildlife reservoir. We developed a methodology to evaluate the effectiveness of aerial vaccination campaigns conducted in Montenegro during autumn 2011 and spring 2012. The effectiveness of the vaccination campaign was assessed by (i) estimating the density of baits, (ii) estimating the distribution of the red fox, (iii) identifying critical areas of insufficient bait density by combining both variables. Although the two vaccination campaigns resulted in 45% and 47% of the country’s total area not reaching recommended density of 20 baits/km², the consecutive delivery of both campaigns reduced these “gaps” to 6%. By combining bait and reservoir density data, we were able to show that bait density was lower than fox density in only 5% of Montenegro’s territory. The methodology described can be used for real-time evaluation of aerial vaccine delivery campaigns, to identify areas with insufficient bait densities.

Analysis of ZP1 gene reveals differences in zona pellucida composition in carnivores

The zona pellucida (ZP) is an extracellular envelope that surrounds mammalian oocytes. This coat participates in the interaction between gametes, induction of the acrosome reaction, block of polyspermy and protection of the oviductal embryo. Previous studies suggested that carnivore ZP was formed by three glycoproteins (ZP2, ZP3 and ZP4), with ZP1 being a pseudogene. However, a recent study in the cat found that all four proteins were expressed. In the present study, in silico and molecular analyses were performed in several carnivores to clarify the ZP composition in this order of mammals. The in silico analysis demonstrated the presence of the ZP1 gene in five carnivores: cheetah, panda, polar bear, tiger and walrus, whereas in the Antarctic fur seal and the Weddell seal there was evidence of pseudogenisation. Molecular analysis showed the presence of four ZP transcripts in ferret ovaries (ZP1, ZP2, ZP3 and ZP4) and three in fox ovaries (ZP2, ZP3 and ZP4). Analysis of the fox ZP1 gene showed the presence of a stop codon. The results strongly suggest that all four ZP genes are expressed in most carnivores, whereas ZP1 pseudogenisation seems to have independently affected three families (Canidae, Otariidae and Phocidae) of the carnivore tree.

Maternal antibody and the maintenance of a lyssavirus in populations of seasonally breeding African bats

Pathogens causing acute disease and death or lasting immunity require specific spatial or temporal processes to persist in populations. Host traits, such as maternally-derived antibody (MDA) and seasonal birthing affect infection maintenance within populations. Our study objective is to understand how viral and host traits lead to population level infection persistence when the infection can be fatal. We collected data on African fruit bats and a rabies-related virus, Lagos bat virus (LBV), including through captive studies. We incorporate these data into a mechanistic model of LBV transmission to determine how host traits, including MDA and seasonal birthing, and viral traits, such as incubation periods, interact to allow fatal viruses to persist within bat populations. Captive bat studies supported MDA presence estimated from field data. Captive bat infection-derived antibody decayed more slowly than MDA, and while faster than estimates from the field, supports field data that suggest antibody persistence may be lifelong. Unobserved parameters were estimated by particle filtering and suggest only a small proportion of bats die of disease. Pathogen persistence in the population is sensitive to this proportion, along with MDA duration and incubation period. Our analyses suggest MDA produced bats and prolonged virus incubation periods allow viral maintenance in adverse conditions, such as a lethal pathogen or strongly seasonal resource availability for the pathogen in the form of seasonally pulsed birthing.

A citizen science based survey method for estimating the density of urban carnivores

Globally there are many examples of synanthropic carnivores exploiting growth in urbanisation. As carnivores can come into conflict with humans and are potential vectors of zoonotic disease, assessing densities in suburban areas and identifying factors that influence them are necessary to aid management and mitigation. However, fragmented, privately owned land restricts the use of conventional carnivore surveying techniques in these areas, requiring development of novel methods. We present a method that combines questionnaire distribution to residents with field surveys and GIS, to determine relative density of two urban carnivores in England, Great Britain. We determined the density of: red fox (Vulpes vulpes) social groups in 14, approximately 1km² suburban areas in 8 different towns and cities; and Eurasian badger (Meles meles) social groups in three suburban areas of one city. Average relative fox group density (FGD) was 3.72 km^-2, which was double the estimates for cities with resident foxes in the 1980’s. Density was comparable to an alternative estimate derived from trapping and GPS-tracking, indicating the validity of the method. However, FGD did not correlate with a national dataset based on fox sightings, indicating unreliability of the national data to determine actual densities or to extrapolate a national population estimate. Using species-specific clustering units that reflect social organisation, the method was additionally applied to suburban badgers to derive relative badger group density (BGD) for one city (Brighton, 2.41 km^-2). We demonstrate that citizen science approaches can effectively obtain data to assess suburban carnivore density, however publicly derived national data sets need to be locally validated before extrapolations can be undertaken. The method we present for assessing densities of foxes and badgers in British towns and cities is also adaptable to other urban carnivores elsewhere. However this transferability is contingent on species traits meeting particular criteria, and on resident responsiveness.

Using stochastic epidemiological models to evaluate conservation strategies for endangered amphibians

Recent outbreaks of chytridiomycosis, the disease of amphibians caused by the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), have contributed to population declines of numerous amphibian species worldwide. The devastating impacts of this disease have led researchers to attempt drastic conservation measures to prevent further extinctions and loss of biodiversity. The conservation measures can be labour-intensive or expensive, and in many cases have been unsuccessful. We developed a mathematical model of Bd outbreaks that includes the effects of demographic stochasticity and within-host fungal load dynamics. We investigated the impacts of one-time treatment conservation strategies during the disease outbreak that occurs following the initial arrival of Bd into a previously uninfected frog population. We found that for all versions of the model, for a large fraction of parameter space, none of the one-time treatment strategies are effective at preventing disease-induced extinction of the amphibian population. Of the strategies considered, treating frogs with antifungal agents to reduce their fungal load had the greatest likelihood of a beneficial outcome and the lowest risk of decreasing the persistence of the frog population, suggesting that this disease mitigation strategy should be prioritized over disinfecting the environment or reducing host density.

Spatiotemporal epidemic models for rabies among animals

Rabies is a serious concern to public health and wildlife management worldwide. Over the last three decades, various mathematical models have been proposed to study the transmission dynamics of rabies. In this paper we provide a mini-review on some reaction-diffusion models describing the spatial spread of rabies among animals. More specifically, we introduce the susceptible-exposed-infectious models for the spatial transmission of rabies among foxes (Murray et al., 1986), the spatiotemporal epidemic model for rabies among raccoons (Neilan and Lenhart, 2011), the diffusive rabies model for skunk and bat interactions (Bonchering et al., 2012), and the reaction-diffusion model for rabies among dogs (Zhang et al., 2012). Numerical simulations on the spatiotemporal dynamics of these models from these papers are presented.

Simulating control of a focal wildlife outbreak of Echinococcus multilocularis

The parasitic tapeworm Echinococcus multilocularis is the causative agent of alveolar echinococcosis, a serious zoonotic infection present in Europe that can be fatal. The United Kingdom currently has E. multilocularis free status but the possibility of introduction exists, most likely via an imported or returning dog or other deliberately introduced animal that has not had anthelmintic treatment. We have developed a model to predict the probability of successfully eliminating a focal outbreak of E. multilocularis using a programme of anthelmintic bait distribution. We investigated three different potential control programmes, each with 36 monthly campaigns commencing five, ten or 15 years after disease introduction over an area of 2827km². We assumed equilibrium disease prevalence of 30%, 40% and 55% based on the range of values reported across Europe. However, for all of these scenarios, equilibrium had not been reached at five to 15 years after introduction and simulated local prevalence values were between 0.5% and 28%. We found that it is possible to eliminate the disease with a 38%-86% success rate if control is started five years after introduction, dropping to 0% to 56% if control is delayed until 15 years after introduction, depending upon the prevalence equilibrium. We have also estimated the costs involved in these programmes to be from €7 to €12 million (2013 prices).

The effect of seasonal birth pulses on pathogen persistence in wild mammal populations

The notion of a critical community size (CCS), or population size that is likely to result in long-term persistence of a communicable disease, has been developed based on the empirical observations of acute immunizing infections in human populations, and extended for use in wildlife populations. Seasonal birth pulses are frequently observed in wildlife and are expected to impact infection dynamics, yet their effect on pathogen persistence and CCS have not been considered. To investigate this issue theoretically, we use stochastic epidemiological models to ask how host life-history traits and infection parameters interact to determine pathogen persistence within a closed population. We fit seasonal birth pulse models to data from diverse mammalian species in order to identify realistic parameter ranges. When varying the synchrony of the birth pulse with all other parameters being constant, our model predicted that the CCS can vary by more than two orders of magnitude. Tighter birth pulses tended to drive pathogen extinction by creating large amplitude oscillations in prevalence, especially with high demographic turnover and short infectious periods. Parameters affecting the relative timing of the epidemic and birth pulse peaks determined the intensity and direction of the effect of pre-existing immunity in the population on the pathogen's ability to persist beyond the initial epidemic following its introduction.

Changes in the distribution of red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) in urban areas in Great Britain: findings and limitations of a media-driven nationwide survey

Urbanization is one of the major forms of habitat alteration occurring at the present time. Although this is typically deleterious to biodiversity, some species flourish within these human-modified landscapes, potentially leading to negative and/or positive interactions between people and wildlife. Hence, up-to-date assessment of urban wildlife populations is important for developing appropriate management strategies. Surveying urban wildlife is limited by land partition and private ownership, rendering many common survey techniques difficult. Garnering public involvement is one solution, but this method is constrained by the inherent biases of non-standardised survey effort associated with voluntary participation. We used a television-led media approach to solicit national participation in an online sightings survey to investigate changes in the distribution of urban foxes in Great Britain and to explore relationships between urban features and fox occurrence and sightings density. Our results show that media-based approaches can generate a large national database on the current distribution of a recognisable species. Fox distribution in England and Wales has changed markedly within the last 25 years, with sightings submitted from 91% of urban areas previously predicted to support few or no foxes. Data were highly skewed with 90% of urban areas having <30 fox sightings per 1000 people km(-2). The extent of total urban area was the only variable with a significant impact on both fox occurrence and sightings density in urban areas; longitude and percentage of public green urban space were respectively, significantly positively and negatively associated with sightings density only. Latitude, and distance to nearest neighbouring conurbation had no impact on either occurrence or sightings density. Given the limitations associated with this method, further investigations are needed to determine the association between sightings density and actual fox density, and variability of fox density within and between urban areas in Britain.

A conceptual model for the impact of climate change on fox rabies in Alaska, 1980-2010

The direct and interactive effects of climate change on host species and infectious disease dynamics are likely to initially manifest\ at latitudinal extremes. As such, Alaska represents a region in the United States for introspection on climate change and disease. Rabies is enzootic among arctic foxes (Vulpes lagopus) throughout the northern polar region. In Alaska, arctic and red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) are reservoirs for rabies, with most domestic animal and wildlife cases reported from northern and western coastal Alaska. Based on passive surveillance, a pronounced seasonal trend in rabid foxes occurs in Alaska, with a peak in winter and spring. This study describes climatic factors that may be associated with reported cyclic rabies occurrence. Based upon probabilistic modelling, a stronger seasonal effect in reported fox rabies cases appears at higher latitudes in Alaska, and rabies in arctic foxes appear disproportionately affected by climatic factors in comparison with red foxes. As temperatures continue a warming trend, a decrease in reported rabid arctic foxes may be expected. The overall epidemiology of rabies in Alaska is likely to shift to increased viral transmission among red foxes as the primary reservoir in the region. Information on fox and lemming demographics, in addition to enhanced rabies surveillance among foxes at finer geographic scales, will be critical to develop more comprehensive models for rabies virus transmission in the region.

Fertility control to mitigate human–wildlife conflicts: a review

As human populations grow, conflicts with wildlife increase. Concurrently, concerns about the welfare, safety and environmental impacts of conventional lethal methods of wildlife management restrict the options available for conflict mitigation. In parallel, there is increasing interest in using fertility control to manage wildlife. The present review aimed at analysing trends in research on fertility control for wildlife, illustrating developments in fertility-control technologies and delivery methods of fertility-control agents, summarising the conclusions of empirical and theoretical studies of fertility control applied at the population level and offering criteria to guide decisions regarding the suitability of fertility control to mitigate human–wildlife conflicts. The review highlighted a growing interest in fertility control for wildlife, underpinned by increasing numbers of scientific studies. Most current practical applications of fertility control for wild mammals use injectable single-dose immunocontraceptive vaccines mainly aimed at sterilising females, although many of these vaccines are not yet commercially available. One oral avian contraceptive, nicarbazin, is commercially available in some countries. Potential new methods of remote contraceptive delivery include bacterial ghosts, virus-like particles and genetically modified transmissible and non-transmissible organisms, although none of these have yet progressed to field testing. In parallel, new species-specific delivery systems have been developed. The results of population-level studies of fertility control indicated that this approach may increase survival and affect social and spatial behaviour of treated animals, although the effects are species- and context-specific. The present studies suggested that a substantial initial effort is generally required to reduce population growth if fertility control is the sole wildlife management method. However, several empirical and field studies have demonstrated that fertility control, particularly of isolated populations, can be successfully used to limit population growth and reduce human–wildlife conflicts. In parallel, there is growing recognition of the possible synergy between fertility control and disease vaccination to optimise the maintenance of herd immunity in the management of wildlife diseases. The review provides a decision tree that can be used to determine whether fertility control should be employed to resolve specific human–wildlife conflicts. These criteria encompass public consultation, considerations about animal welfare and feasibility, evaluation of population responses, costs and sustainability.

The scaling of contact rates with population density for the infectious disease models

Contact rates and patterns among individuals in a geographic area drive transmission of directly-transmitted pathogens, making it essential to understand and estimate contacts for simulation of disease dynamics. Under the uniform mixing assumption, one of two mechanisms is typically used to describe the relation between contact rate and population density: density-dependent or frequency-dependent. Based on existing evidence of population threshold and human mobility patterns, we formulated a spatial contact model to describe the appropriate form of transmission with initial growth at low density and saturation at higher density. We show that the two mechanisms are extreme cases that do not capture real population movement across all scales. Empirical data of human and wildlife diseases indicate that a nonlinear function may work better when looking at the full spectrum of densities. This estimation can be applied to large areas with population mixing in general activities. For crowds with unusually large densities (e.g., transportation terminals, stadiums, or mass gatherings), the lack of organized social contact structure deviates the physical contacts towards a special case of the spatial contact model - the dynamics of kinetic gas molecule collision. In this case, an ideal gas model with van der Waals correction fits well; existing movement observation data and the contact rate between individuals is estimated using kinetic theory. A complete picture of contact rate scaling with population density may help clarify the definition of transmission rates in heterogeneous, large-scale spatial systems.

Rabies and canine distemper virus epidemics in the red fox population of northern Italy (2006-2010)

Since 2006 the red fox (Vulpes vulpes) population in north-eastern Italy has experienced an epidemic of canine distemper virus (CDV). Additionally, in 2008, after a thirteen-year absence from Italy, fox rabies was re-introduced in the Udine province at the national border with Slovenia. Disease intervention strategies are being developed and implemented to control rabies in this area and minimise risk to human health. Here we present empirical data and the epidemiological picture relating to these epidemics in the period 2006–2010. Of important significance for epidemiological studies of wild animals, basic mathematical models are developed to exploit information collected from the surveillance program on dead and/or living animals in order to assess the incidence of infection. These models are also used to estimate the rate of transmission of both diseases and the rate of vaccination, while correcting for a bias in early collection of CDV samples. We found that the rate of rabies transmission was roughly twice that of CDV, with an estimated effective contact between infected and susceptible fox leading to a new infection occurring once every 3 days for rabies, and once a week for CDV. We also inferred that during the early stage of the CDV epidemic, a bias in the monitoring protocol resulted in a positive sample being almost 10 times more likely to be collected than a negative sample. We estimated the rate of intake of oral vaccine at 0.006 per day, allowing us to estimate that roughly 68% of the foxes would be immunised. This was confirmed by field observations. Finally we discuss the implications for the eco-epidemiological dynamics of both epidemics in relation to control measures.

Wildlife: the need to better understand the linkages

Wildlife are frequently a neglected component of One Health; however, the linkages between the health of wildlife and human, domestic animal, and environmental health are clear. The majority of emerging zoonotic diseases are linked to wildlife, primarily driven by anthropogenic land changes. Despite this risk, wildlife have important links to people as environmental indicators, food security and safety, and through human livelihoods. This chapter will describe these linkages and demonstrate the need to understand these linkages through targeted surveillance and understanding the ecology of wildlife diseases. While the management of wildlife diseases presents a significant challenge, such practices will greatly improve the health of people, domestic animals, wildlife and the environment.

Emergency rabies control in a community of two high-density hosts

Background

Rabies is a fatal viral disease that potentially can affect all mammals. Terrestrial rabies is not present in the United Kingdom and has been eliminated from Western Europe. Nevertheless the possibility remains that rabies could be introduced to England, where it would find two potentially suitable hosts, red foxes and badgers. With the aim to analyse the spread and emergency control of rabies in this two species host community, a simulation model was constructed. Different control strategies involving anti-rabies vaccination and population culling were developed, considering control application rates, spatial extent and timing. These strategies were evaluated for efficacy and feasibility to control rabies in hypothetical rural areas in the South of England immediately after a disease outbreak.

Results

The model confirmed that both fox and badger populations, separately, were competent hosts for the spread of rabies. Realistic vaccination levels were not sufficient to control rabies in high-density badger populations. The combined species community was a very strong rabies host. However, disease spread within species appeared to be more important than cross-species infection. Thus, the drivers of epidemiology depend on the potential of separate host species to sustain the disease. To control a rabies outbreak in the two species, both species had to be targeted. Realistic and robust control strategies involved vaccination of foxes and badgers, but also required badger culling. Although fox and badger populations in the UK are exceptionally dense, an outbreak of rabies can be controlled with a higher than 90% chance, if control response is quick and follows a strict regime. This requires surveillance and forceful and repeated control campaigns. In contrast, an uncontrolled rabies outbreak in the South of England would quickly develop into a strong epizootic involving tens of thousands of rabid foxes and badgers.

Conclusions

If populations of both host species are sufficiently large, epizootics are driven by within-species transmission, while cross-species-infection appears to be of minor importance. Thus, the disease control strategy has to target both host populations.

The spatial and temporal dynamics of rabies in China

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Recent years have seen a rapid increase in the number of rabies cases in China and an expansion in the geographic distribution of the virus. In spite of the seriousness of the outbreak and increasing number of fatalities, little is known about the phylogeography of the disease in China. In this study, we report an analysis of a set of Nucleocapsid sequences consisting of samples collected through the trial Chinese National Surveillance System as well as publicly available sequences. This sequence set represents the most comprehensive dataset from China to date, comprising 210 sequences (including 57 new samples) from 15 provinces and covering all epidemic regions. Using this dataset we investigated genetic diversity, patterns of distribution, and evolutionary history.

RESULTS

Our analysis indicates that the rabies virus in China is primarily defined by two clades that exhibit distinct population subdivision and translocation patterns and that contributed to the epidemic in different ways. The younger clade originated around 1992 and has properties that closely match the observed spread of the recent epidemic. The older clade originated around 1960 and has a dispersion pattern that suggests it represents a strain associated with a previous outbreak that remained at low levels throughout the country and reemerged in the current epidemic.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings provide new insight into factors associated with the recent epidemic and are relevant to determining an effective policy for controlling the virus.

The use of immunocontraception to improve rabies eradication in urban dog populations

ContextRabies causes ~55 000 human deaths each year, primarily as a result of bites from dogs, which are the major rabies reservoir in the developing world. Current rabies control strategies include vaccination, culling and surgical sterilisation of dogs. However, recently developed immunocontraceptives could be used alongside vaccination to apply fertility control to more animals. AimsWe used a modelling approach to explore (1) whether adding single-dose contraceptives to rabies vaccination would improve effectiveness of rabies eradication, (2) how sensitive control methods are to variation in population parameters and (3) the effects of applying control continuously or in pulses on rabies eradication. MethodsA continuous time, compartmental model was created to describe canine rabies epidemiology. Parameters were derived from the literature. The following three control methods were applied at varying rates and durations: vaccination, vaccination plus fertility control (v + fc) and culling. Outcomes were classified into the following three categories: rabies persistence, rabies eradication and population extinction. Key resultsWhen control was applied continuously for up to 24 months, vaccination was least effective; the effort required to eradicate rabies was about twice that required with culling or v + fc. At realistic control rates, only v + fc consistently resulted in rabies eradication. Increasing population growth rate and city size made rabies eradication harder; for vaccination, considerably greater control rates and durations were required, whereas culling and v + fc showed only minor decreases in effectiveness. When control was applied for 1 or 2 months (for one month every 12 months or every 6 months) per year for up to 20 years, vaccination became less effective because of population turnover between control periods; v + fc lost little effectiveness, as decreased birth rates reduced the input of susceptible animals. ConclusionsUsing immunocontraception alongside vaccination could improve rabies control campaigns by reducing the proportion of the population that must be treated, or reducing the necessary duration of the campaign. It could also make control effective under larger population growths, in larger cities and when control is pulsed. ImplicationsImmunocontraceptives could become a useful tool in canine rabies control by allowing fertility control to be applied on a large scale. Further work is required to improve understanding of dog ecology and parameterise location-specific models, which could be used to inform management plans.

Experimental evidence of competitive release in sympatric carnivores

Changes in the relative abundance of sympatric carnivores can have far-reaching ecological consequences, including the precipitation of trophic cascades and species declines. While such observations are compelling, experimental evaluations of interactions among carnivores remain scarce and are both logistically and ethically challenging. Carnivores are nonetheless a particular focus of management practices owing to their roles as predators of livestock and as vectors and reservoirs of zoonotic diseases. Here, we provide evidence from a replicated and controlled experiment that culling Eurasian badgers Meles meles for disease control was associated with increases in red fox Vulpes vulpes densities of 1.6-2.3 foxes km-2. This unique experiment demonstrates the importance of intraguild relations in determining species abundance and of assessing the wider consequences of intervention in predator populations.

Pre-spillover prevention of emerging zoonotic diseases: what are the targets and what are the tools?

The uneven standards of surveillance, human- or animal-based, for zoonotic diseases or pathogens maintained and transmitted by wildlife H(R)s, or even domestic species, is a global problem, readily apparent even within the United States, where investment in public health, including surveillance systems, has a long and enviable history. As of 2006, there appears to be little scientific, social, or political consensus that animal-based surveillance for zoonoses merits investment in international infrastructure, other than the fledgling efforts with avian influenza, or targeted nontraditional avenues of surveillance and research. National institutions charged with strategic planning for emerging diseases or intentional releases of zoonotic agents have emphasized improving diagnostic capabilities for detecting human infections, modifying the immune status of human or domestic animals through vaccines, producing better antiviral or antibacterial drugs, and enhancing human-based surveillance as an early warning system. With the possible exception of extensive human vaccination, each of these approaches target post-spillover events and none of these avenues of research will have the slightest impact on reducing the risk of additional emergence of viruses or other pathogens from wildlife. Novel schemes of preventing spillover of human pathogens from animal H(R)s can only spring from improving our understanding of the ecological context and biological interactions of pathogen maintenance among H(R)s. Although the benefit derived from investments to improve surveillance and knowledge of zoonotic pathogens circulating among wildlife H(R) populations is uncertain, our experience with HIV and the looming threat of pandemic avian influenza A inform us of the outcomes we can expect by relying on detection of post-spillover events among sentinel humans.

A meta-BACI approach for evaluating management intervention on chronic wasting disease in mule deer

Advances in acquiring and analyzing the spatial attributes of data have greatly enhanced the potential utility of wildlife disease surveillance data for addressing problems of ecological or economic importance. We present an approach for using wildlife disease surveillance data to identify areas for (or of) intervention, to spatially delineate paired treatment and control areas, and then to analyze these nonrandomly selected sites in a meta-analysis framework via before-after-control impact (BACI) estimates of effect size. We apply these methods to evaluate the effectiveness of attempts to reduce chronic wasting disease (CWD) prevalence through intensive localized culling of mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) in north-central Colorado, USA. Areas where surveillance data revealed high prevalence or case clusters were targeted by state wildlife management agency personnel for focal scale (on average <17 km2) culling, primarily via agency sharpshooters. Each area of sustained culling that we could also identify as unique by cluster analysis was considered a potential treatment area. Treatment areas, along with spatially paired control areas that we constructed post hoc in a case-control design (collectively called "management evaluation sites"), were then delineated using home range estimators. Using meta-BACI analysis of CWD prevalence data for all management evaluation sites, the mean effect size (change of prevalence on treatment areas minus change in prevalence on their paired control areas) was 0.03 (SE = 0.03); mean effect size on treatment areas was not greater than on paired control areas. Excluding cull samples from prevalence estimates or allowing for an equal or greater two-year lag in system responses to management did not change this outcome. We concluded that management benefits were not evident, although whether this represented true ineffectiveness or was a result of lack of data or insufficient duration of treatment could not be discerned. Based on our observations, we offer recommendations for designing a management experiment with 80% power to detect a 0.10 drop in prevalence over a 6-12-year period.

Emergency vaccination of rabies under limited resources -- combating or containing?

Background

Rabies is the most important viral zoonosis from a global perspective. Worldwide efforts to combat the disease by oral vaccination of reservoirs have managed to eradicate wildlife rabies in large areas of central Europe and North-America. Thus, repeated vaccination has been discontinued recently on a geographical scale. However, as rabies has not yet been eradicated globally, a serious risk of re-introduction remains. What is the best spatial design for an emergency vaccination program – particularly if resources are limited? Either, we treat a circular area around the detected case and run the risk of infected hosts leaving the limited control area, because a sufficient immunisation level has not yet been built up. Or, initially concentrate the SAME resources in order to establish a protective ring which is more distant from the infected local area, and which then holds out against the challenge of the approaching epidemic.

Methods

We developed a simulation model to contrast the two strategies for emergency vaccination. The spatial-explicit model is based on fox group home-ranges, which facilitates the simulation of rabies spread to larger areas relevant to management. We used individual-based fox groups to follow up the effects of vaccination in a detailed manner. Thus, regionally – bait distribution orientates itself to standard schemes of oral immunisation programs and locally – baits are assigned to individual foxes.

Results

Surprisingly, putting the controlled area ring-like around the outbreak does not outperform the circular area of the same size centred on the outbreak. Only during the very first baitings, does the ring area result in fewer breakouts. But then as rabies is eliminated within the circle area, the respective ring area fails, due to the non-controlled inner part.

We attempt to take advantage of the initially fewer breakouts beyond the ring when applying a mixed strategy. Therefore, after a certain number of baitings, the area under control was increased for both strategies towards the same larger circular area. The circle-circle strategy still outperforms the ring-circle strategy and analysis of the spatial-temporal disease spread reveals why: improving control efficacy by means of a mixed strategy is impossible in the field, due to the build-up time of population immunity.

Conclusion

For practical emergency management of a new outbreak of rabies, the ring-like application of oral vaccination is not a favourable strategy at all. Even if initial resources are substantially low and there is a serious risk of rabies cases outside the limited control area, our results suggest circular application instead of ring vaccination.

Use of an area index to retrospectively analyze the elimination of fox rabies in European countries

Oral vaccination of foxes (OVF) is a powerful tool to combat rabies in wildlife, and large parts of western Europe have been freed from rabies using this tool. Nevertheless, the success of OVF, given with the number of campaigns needed to eliminate the disease, depends on many factors. This article for the first time focuses on and assesses difference in OVF with respect to the spatial setting of vaccinated areas with time. The size of the areas vaccinated with time and the size of the overlapping area of consecutively vaccinated areas are particularly considered. In order to integrate these two aspects into one single figure, an Area Index is proposed ranging between 0 and 1. A statistical analysis indicates that the number of campaigns needed for rabies elimination significantly decreases on condition that the total rabies endemic area is consecutively treated right from the beginning of oral vaccination. Hence, from an economical and environmental point of view, vaccination areas should be selected the way that guarantees an Area Index close to 1. The concept of an Area Index, as described here, is a useful tool not only in the context of OVF, but it could also be used for other control schemes against infectious diseases in wildlife.