Mpox (monkeypox) risk and mortality associated with HIV infection: a national case-control study in Nigeria

INTRODUCTION

Recent outbreaks of mpox are characterised by changes in the natural history of the disease, the demographic and clinical characteristics of the cases, and widening geographical distribution. We investigated the role of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs) coinfection among cases in the re-emergence of mpox to inform national and global response.

METHODS

We conducted a national descriptive and case-control study on cases in the 2017-2019 Nigerian mpox outbreak. Mpox cases were age, sex and geographical area matched each with two randomly selected controls from a representative national HIV/AIDS survey. Logistic regression was used to investigate the association between HIV infection and the risk of mpox acquisition and death.

RESULTS

Among 204 suspected mpox cases, 86 were confirmed (median age 31 years (IQR 27-38 years), mostly males (61 cases, 70.9%). Three-fifths of mpox cases had serological evidence of one or more STIs with 27.9% (24/86) coinfected with HIV. The case fatality rate was 9.4% (8/86) and 20.8% (5/24) overall and in HIV positive cases respectively. Mpox cases were more likely to have HIV coinfection compared with an age, gender and geography-matched control group drawn from the general population (OR 45 (95% CI 6.1 to 333.5, p=0.002) and when compared with non mpox rash cases (7.29 (95% CI 2.6 to 20.5, p<0.0001)). HIV coinfection and young age were associated with mortality among mpox cases (aOR 13.66 (95% CI 1.88 to 98.95, p=0.010) and aOR 0.90 (0.82-0.97, p=0.008), respectively).

CONCLUSION

HIV infection was associated with a higher risk of contracting and dying from mpox. Children are also at high risk of death. STIs in mpox cases may be suggestive of high-risk sexual behaviours among these individuals.

Human Mpox in People Living with HIV: Epidemiologic and Clinical Perspectives from Nigeria

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is disproportionately affected by mpox and HIV. We described epidemiologic trends and clinical experiences in the management of mpox in people living with HIV (PLWH) in Nigeria and further examined how the rapidly accumulating body of knowledge from the 2022 global mpox outbreak might be explored to improve mpox care in PLWH in SSA. During the 2017/2018 Nigerian mpox outbreak, we reported that 9/40 (22.5%) hospitalized mpox patients with known HIV status were PLWH. In the 2022 global mpox outbreak, 52% of confirmed mpox cases with known HIV status were PLWH, predominantly sexual and gender minority groups. However, substantial missing data on HIV status of confirmed mpox cases highlights a critical gap in HIV testing as a component of mpox management. Before 2022, sexual activity was not commonly linked to mpox transmission, but this was identified as a major driver of transmission during the 2022 mpox outbreak. Notable sexual history observed in Nigerian mpox patients in 2017/2018 suggests that the contribution of sexual activity in human-to-human mpox transmission might have been underappreciated for years. Our cohort of PLWH with mpox, predominantly individuals with advanced or uncontrolled HIV, were significantly more likely to experience severe mpox manifestations and prolonged disease compared with those without HIV. This contrasts with the generally less remarkable differences in mpox presentation between people with and without HIV in Western countries, an observation that can be at least partially explained by more stable HIV disease. The unavailability of mpox antiviral drugs and vaccines in SSA highlights global inequity in mpox response, which requires an urgent attention. As mpox countermeasures become available in SSA, lessons learned from their use in Western countries could provide important guidance for care providers in SSA. Public health measures to mitigate stigmatization in PLWH with mpox is also critical.

Case Report: Recurrent Mpox in a Healthcare Worker in Nigeria

We report the first case of recurrent Mpox from Africa. The patient is a 36-year-old, previously healthy, HIV-negative male healthcare worker who developed two episodes of laboratory-confirmed Mpox in 2017 and 2018, 9 months apart. In both cases, he had prior close contact with confirmed Mpox cases in the hospital setting. On follow-up in 2022, he also reported recurrent postcoital skin eruptions over a previously healed genital scar from the first episode of Mpox. We highlight the need for future studies to investigate the true burden and risk factors for Mpox reinfection, relapse, and recrudescence.

Distinct monkeypox virus lineages co-circulating in humans before 2022

The 2022 global mpox outbreak raises questions about how this zoonotic disease established effective human-to-human transmission and its potential for further adaptation. The 2022 outbreak virus is related to an ongoing outbreak in Nigeria originally reported in 2017, but the evolutionary path linking the two remains unclear due to a lack of genomic data between 2018, when virus exportations from Nigeria were first recorded, and 2022, when the global mpox outbreak began. Here, 18 viral genomes obtained from patients across southern Nigeria in 2019-2020 reveal multiple lineages of monkeypox virus (MPXV) co-circulated in humans for several years before 2022, with progressive accumulation of mutations consistent with APOBEC3 activity over time. We identify Nigerian A.2 lineage isolates, confirming the lineage that has been multiply exported to North America independently of the 2022 outbreak originated in Nigeria, and that it has persisted by human-to-human transmission in Nigeria for more than 2 years before its latest exportation. Finally, we identify a lineage-defining APOBEC3-style mutation in all A.2 isolates that disrupts gene A46R, encoding a viral innate immune modulator. Collectively, our data demonstrate MPXV capacity for sustained diversification within humans, including mutations that may be consistent with established mechanisms of poxvirus adaptation.

Orthopoxvirus Infections in Rodents, Nigeria, 2018-2019

To investigate animal reservoirs of monkeypox virus in Nigeria, we sampled 240 rodents during 2018-2019. Molecular (real-time PCR) and serologic (IgM) evidence indicated orthopoxvirus infections, but presence of monkeypox virus was not confirmed. These results can be used to develop public health interventions to reduce human infection with orthopoxviruses.

Epidemiology of Human Mpox - Worldwide, 2018-2021

Monkeypox (mpox) is a zoonotic disease caused by Monkeypox virus (MPXV), an Orthopoxvirus; the wild mammalian reservoir species is not known. There are two genetic clades of MPXV: clade I and clade II (historically found in central and west Africa, respectively), with only Cameroon reporting both clades (1). Human cases have historically been reported from 1) mostly rural, forested areas in some central and west African countries; 2) countries reporting cases related to population migration or travel of infected persons; and 3) exposure to imported infected mammals (2). The annual number of cases in Africa has risen since 2014 and cumulatively surpassed reports from the previous 40 years for most countries. This reemergence of mpox might be due to a combination of environmental and ecological changes, animal or human movement, the cessation of routine smallpox vaccination since its eradication in 1980, improvements in disease detection and diagnosis, and genetic changes in the virus (2). This report describes the epidemiology of mpox since 1970 and during 2018-2021, using data from national surveillance programs, World Health Organization (WHO) bulletins, and case reports, and addresses current diagnostic and treatment challenges in countries with endemic disease. During 2018-2021, human cases were recognized and confirmed in six African countries, with most detected in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Nigeria. The reemergence and increase in cases resulted in its being listed in 2019 as a priority disease for immediate and routine reporting through the Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response strategy in the WHO African region.* In eight instances, patients with mpox were identified in four countries outside of Africa after travel from Nigeria. Since 2018, introductory and intermediate training courses on prevention and control of mpox for public health and health care providers have been available online at OpenWHO.^†,§ The global outbreak that began in May 2022^¶ has further highlighted the need for improvements in laboratory-based surveillance and access to treatments and vaccines to prevent and contain the infection, including in areas of Africa with endemic mpox.

Sexual history of human monkeypox patients seen at a tertiary hospital in Bayelsa, Nigeria

Background: Human monkeypox (HMPX) is currently spreading outside endemic countries in Africa and the majority of those affected are gay and bisexual men within interconnected sexual networks. We investigated the sexual history of HMPX cases seen at a tertiary hospital in Bayelsa State during the 2017-2018 outbreak in Nigeria.Method: A cross-sectional study was conducted between 20 October 2017 and 2 January 2019 among adult confirmed/probable HMPX cases. A questionnaire was used to collect data on the sexual history of participants, including sexual contact in relation to the first symptom, and high-risk behaviours (HRB) such as a history of condomless casual sex, multiple sexual partners, and transactional sex.Results: Of 21 patients, 16 (76.2%) gave consent to participate in the study: age range of 22-43 years, 75% males, three (18.8%) HIV-1 positive, and 13 (81.2%) with genital ulcers. Nine (56.2%) of participants reported HRB, and all were male heterosexuals. Eight of the 16 participants (50%) reported having sex within a month before their first symptom, and five (62.5%) of this number reported HRB. There were two cases of sex with a partner with a non-genital rash, and a spouse who developed a vulval ulcer four days after sex with her husband.Conclusion: Our results support the role of sexual contact in the transmission of monkeypox among some confirmed cases from Nigeria. However, future elaborate studies are required to confirm if sexual behaviour and sexual transmission are associated with HMPX in Nigeria.

A case of suicide during the 2017 monkeypox outbreak in Nigeria

We report a case of suicide in a 34-year-old businessman who was admitted to an isolation facility in a tertiary hospital during the 2017/2018 monkeypox outbreak in Nigeria. We describe the possible psychosocial factors associated with suicide and highlight the challenges faced and lessons learnt in the management of the case. To our knowledge, this is the first reported case of suicide linked to human monkeypox.

Exportation of Monkeypox Virus From the African Continent

BACKGROUND

The largest West African monkeypox outbreak began September 2017, in Nigeria. Four individuals traveling from Nigeria to the United Kingdom (n = 2), Israel (n = 1), and Singapore (n = 1) became the first human monkeypox cases exported from Africa, and a related nosocomial transmission event in the United Kingdom became the first confirmed human-to-human monkeypox transmission event outside of Africa.

METHODS

Epidemiological and molecular data for exported and Nigerian cases were analyzed jointly to better understand the exportations in the temporal and geographic context of the outbreak.

RESULTS

Isolates from all travelers and a Bayelsa case shared a most recent common ancestor and traveled to Bayelsa, Delta, or Rivers states. Genetic variation for this cluster was lower than would be expected from a random sampling of genomes from this outbreak, but data did not support direct links between travelers.

CONCLUSIONS

Monophyly of exportation cases and the Bayelsa sample, along with the intermediate levels of genetic variation, suggest a small pool of related isolates is the likely source for the exported infections. This may be the result of the level of genetic variation present in monkeypox isolates circulating within the contiguous region of Bayelsa, Delta, and Rivers states, or another more restricted, yet unidentified source pool.

Population health outcomes in Nigeria compared with other west African countries, 1998-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study

BACKGROUND

Population-level health and mortality data are crucial for evidence-informed policy but scarce in Nigeria. To fill this gap, we undertook a comprehensive assessment of the burden of disease in Nigeria and compared outcomes to other west African countries.

METHODS

In this systematic analysis, using data and results of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019, we analysed patterns of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), life expectancy, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and health system coverage for Nigeria and 15 other west African countries by gender in 1998 and 2019. Estimates of all-age and age-standardised disability-adjusted life-years for 369 diseases and injuries and 87 risk factors are presented for Nigeria. Health expenditure per person and gross domestic product were extracted from the World Bank repository.

FINDINGS

Between 1998 and 2019, life expectancy and HALE increased in Nigeria by 18% to 64·3 years (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 62·2-66·6), mortality reduced for all age groups for both male and female individuals, and health expenditure per person increased from the 11th to third highest in west Africa by 2018 (US$18·6 in 2001 to $83·75 in 2018). Nonetheless, relative outcomes remained poor; Nigeria ranked sixth in west Africa for age-standardised mortality, seventh for HALE, tenth for YLLs, 12th for health system coverage, and 14th for YLDs in 2019. Malaria (5176·3 YLLs per 100 000 people, 95% UI 2464·0-9591·1) and neonatal disorders (4818·8 YLLs per 100 000, 3865·9-6064·2) were the leading causes of YLLs in Nigeria in 2019. Nigeria had the fourth-highest under-five mortality rate for male individuals (2491·8 deaths per 100 000, 95% UI 1986·1-3140·1) and female individuals (2117·7 deaths per 100 000, 1756·7-2569·1), but among the lowest mortality for men older than 55 years. There was evidence of a growing non-communicable disease burden facing older Nigerians.

INTERPRETATION

Health outcomes remain poor in Nigeria despite higher expenditure since 2001. Better outcomes in countries with equivalent or lower health expenditure suggest health system strengthening and targeted intervention to address unsafe water sources, poor sanitation, malnutrition, and exposure to air pollution could substantially improve population health.

FUNDING

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The niche of One Health approaches in Lassa fever surveillance and control

Lassa fever (LF), a zoonotic illness, represents a public health burden in West African countries where the Lassa virus (LASV) circulates among rodents. Human exposure hinges significantly on LASV ecology, which is in turn shaped by various parameters such as weather seasonality and even virus and rodent-host genetics. Furthermore, human behaviour, despite playing a key role in the zoonotic nature of the disease, critically affects either the spread or control of human-to-human transmission. Previous estimations on LF burden date from the 80s and it is unclear how the population expansion and the improvement on diagnostics and surveillance methods have affected such predictions. Although recent data have contributed to the awareness of epidemics, the real impact of LF in West African communities will only be possible with the intensification of interdisciplinary efforts in research and public health approaches. This review discusses the causes and consequences of LF from a One Health perspective, and how the application of this concept can improve the surveillance and control of this disease in West Africa.

Clinical Course and Outcome of Human Monkeypox in Nigeria

In a retrospective review of hospital records of 40 human monkeypox cases from Nigeria, the majority developed fever and self-limiting vesiculopustular skin eruptions. Five deaths were reported. Compared to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-negative cases, HIV type 1-coinfected cases had more prolonged illness, larger lesions, and higher rates of both secondary bacterial skin infections and genital ulcers.

Systems thinking for health emergencies: use of process mapping during outbreak response

Process mapping is a systems thinking approach used to understand, analyse and optimise processes within complex systems. We aim to demonstrate how this methodology can be applied during disease outbreaks to strengthen response and health systems. Process mapping exercises were conducted during three unique emerging disease outbreak contexts with different: mode of transmission, size, and health system infrastructure. System functioning improved considerably in each country. In Sierra Leone, laboratory testing was accelerated from 6 days to within 24 hours. In the Democratic Republic of Congo, time to suspected case notification reduced from 7 to 3 days. In Nigeria, key data reached the national level in 48 hours instead of 5 days. Our research shows that despite the chaos and complexities associated with emerging pathogen outbreaks, the implementation of a process mapping exercise can address immediate response priorities while simultaneously strengthening components of a health system.

Descriptive epidemiology of coronavirus disease 2019 in Nigeria, 27 February-6 June 2020

The objective of this study was to describe the epidemiology of COVID-19 in Nigeria with a view of generating evidence to enhance planning and response strategies. A national surveillance dataset between 27 February and 6 June 2020 was retrospectively analysed, with confirmatory testing for COVID-19 done by real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). The primary outcomes were cumulative incidence (CI) and case fatality (CF). A total of 40 926 persons (67% of total 60 839) had complete records of RT-PCR test across 35 states and the Federal Capital Territory, 12 289 (30.0%) of whom were confirmed COVID-19 cases. Of those confirmed cases, 3467 (28.2%) had complete records of clinical outcome (alive or dead), 342 (9.9%) of which died. The overall CI and CF were 5.6 per 100 000 population and 2.8%, respectively. The highest proportion of COVID-19 cases and deaths were recorded in persons aged 31-40 years (25.5%) and 61-70 years (26.6%), respectively; and males accounted for a higher proportion of confirmed cases (65.8%) and deaths (79.0%). Sixty-six per cent of confirmed COVID-19 cases were asymptomatic at diagnosis. In conclusion, this paper has provided an insight into the early epidemiology of COVID-19 in Nigeria, which could be useful for contextualising public health planning.

Use of Surveillance Outbreak Response Management and Analysis System for Human Monkeypox Outbreak, Nigeria, 2017-2019

In November 2017, the mobile digital Surveillance Outbreak Response Management and Analysis System was deployed in 30 districts in Nigeria in response to an outbreak of monkeypox. Adaptation and activation of the system took 14 days, and its use improved timeliness, completeness, and overall capacity of the response.

Human Monkeypox: Epidemiologic and Clinical Characteristics, Diagnosis, and Prevention

Recently, concern has been raised about the emergence of human monkeypox virus and the occasionally severe clinical presentation bearing resemblance to that of smallpox. In 2018 3 patients in the UK were diagnosed with monkeypox, and the frequency and geographic distribution of cases across West and Central Africa have increased in recent years. In Nigeria, most monkeypox patients are aged <40 years and lack cross-protective immunity because they were born after discontinuation of the smallpox eradication campaign. This article reviews the epidemiology, clinical features, and management of monkeypox and discusses its growing public health threat in this context.

Outbreak of human monkeypox in Nigeria in 2017-18: a clinical and epidemiological report

BACKGROUND

In September, 2017, human monkeypox re-emerged in Nigeria, 39 years after the last reported case. We aimed to describe the clinical and epidemiological features of the 2017-18 human monkeypox outbreak in Nigeria.

METHODS

We reviewed the epidemiological and clinical characteristics of cases of human monkeypox that occurred between Sept 22, 2017, and Sept 16, 2018. Data were collected with a standardised case investigation form, with a case definition of human monkeypox that was based on previously established guidelines. Diagnosis was confirmed by viral identification with real-time PCR and by detection of positive anti-orthopoxvirus IgM antibodies. Whole-genome sequencing was done for seven cases. Haplotype analysis results, genetic distance data, and epidemiological data were used to infer a likely series of events for potential human-to-human transmission of the west African clade of monkeypox virus.

FINDINGS

122 confirmed or probable cases of human monkeypox were recorded in 17 states, including seven deaths (case fatality rate 6%). People infected with monkeypox virus were aged between 2 days and 50 years (median 29 years [IQR 14]), and 84 (69%) were male. All 122 patients had vesiculopustular rash, and fever, pruritus, headache, and lymphadenopathy were also common. The rash affected all parts of the body, with the face being most affected. The distribution of cases and contacts suggested both primary zoonotic and secondary human-to-human transmission. Two cases of health-care-associated infection were recorded. Genomic analysis suggested multiple introductions of the virus and a single introduction along with human-to-human transmission in a prison facility.

INTERPRETATION

This study describes the largest documented human outbreak of the west African clade of the monkeypox virus. Our results suggest endemicity of monkeypox virus in Nigeria, with some evidence of human-to-human transmission. Further studies are necessary to explore animal reservoirs and risk factors for transmission of the virus in Nigeria.

FUNDING

None.

Reemergence of Human Monkeypox in Nigeria, 2017

In Nigeria, before 2017 the most recent case of human monkeypox had been reported in 1978. By mid-November 2017, a large outbreak caused by the West African clade resulted in 146 suspected cases and 42 laboratory-confirmed cases from 14 states. Although the source is unknown, multiple sources are suspected.