Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality burden of non-COVID-19 lower respiratory infections and aetiologies, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Lower respiratory infections (LRIs) are a major global contributor to morbidity and mortality. In 2020-21, non-pharmaceutical interventions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic reduced not only the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, but also the transmission of other LRI pathogens. Tracking LRI incidence and mortality, as well as the pathogens responsible, can guide health-system responses and funding priorities to reduce future burden. We present estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 of the burden of non-COVID-19 LRIs and corresponding aetiologies from 1990 to 2021, inclusive of pandemic effects on the incidence and mortality of select respiratory viruses, globally, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories.

METHODS

We estimated mortality, incidence, and aetiology attribution for LRI, defined by the GBD as pneumonia or bronchiolitis, not inclusive of COVID-19. We analysed 26 259 site-years of mortality data using the Cause of Death Ensemble model to estimate LRI mortality rates. We analysed all available age-specific and sex-specific data sources, including published literature identified by a systematic review, as well as household surveys, hospital admissions, health insurance claims, and LRI mortality estimates, to generate internally consistent estimates of incidence and prevalence using DisMod-MR 2.1. For aetiology estimation, we analysed multiple causes of death, vital registration, hospital discharge, microbial laboratory, and literature data using a network analysis model to produce the proportion of LRI deaths and episodes attributable to the following pathogens: Acinetobacter baumannii, Chlamydia spp, Enterobacter spp, Escherichia coli, fungi, group B streptococcus, Haemophilus influenzae, influenza viruses, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Legionella spp, Mycoplasma spp, polymicrobial infections, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), Staphylococcus aureus, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and other viruses (ie, the aggregate of all viruses studied except influenza and RSV), as well as a residual category of other bacterial pathogens.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2021, we estimated 344 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 325-364) incident episodes of LRI, or 4350 episodes (4120-4610) per 100 000 population, and 2·18 million deaths (1·98-2·36), or 27·7 deaths (25·1-29·9) per 100 000. 502 000 deaths (406 000-611 000) were in children younger than 5 years, among which 254 000 deaths (197 000-320 000) occurred in countries with a low Socio-demographic Index. Of the 18 modelled pathogen categories in 2021, S pneumoniae was responsible for the highest proportions of LRI episodes and deaths, with an estimated 97·9 million (92·1-104·0) episodes and 505 000 deaths (454 000-555 000) globally. The pathogens responsible for the second and third highest episode counts globally were other viral aetiologies (46·4 million [43·6-49·3] episodes) and Mycoplasma spp (25·3 million [23·5-27·2]), while those responsible for the second and third highest death counts were S aureus (424 000 [380 000-459 000]) and K pneumoniae (176 000 [158 000-194 000]). From 1990 to 2019, the global all-age non-COVID-19 LRI mortality rate declined by 41·7% (35·9-46·9), from 56·5 deaths (51·3-61·9) to 32·9 deaths (29·9-35·4) per 100 000. From 2019 to 2021, during the COVID-19 pandemic and implementation of associated non-pharmaceutical interventions, we estimated a 16·0% (13·1-18·6) decline in the global all-age non-COVID-19 LRI mortality rate, largely accounted for by a 71·8% (63·8-78·9) decline in the number of influenza deaths and a 66·7% (56·6-75·3) decline in the number of RSV deaths.

INTERPRETATION

Substantial progress has been made in reducing LRI mortality, but the burden remains high, especially in low-income and middle-income countries. During the COVID-19 pandemic, with its associated non-pharmaceutical interventions, global incident LRI cases and mortality attributable to influenza and RSV declined substantially. Expanding access to health-care services and vaccines, including S pneumoniae, H influenzae type B, and novel RSV vaccines, along with new low-cost interventions against S aureus, could mitigate the LRI burden and prevent transmission of LRI-causing pathogens.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, and Department of Health and Social Care (UK).

Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Disorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

We estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined.

FINDINGS

Globally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378-521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20-3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5-45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7-26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6-38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5-32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7-2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer.

INTERPRETATION

As the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national age-specific progress towards the 2020 milestones of the WHO End TB Strategy: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Global evaluations of the progress towards the WHO End TB Strategy 2020 interim milestones on mortality (35% reduction) and incidence (20% reduction) have not been age specific. We aimed to assess global, regional, and national-level burdens of and trends in tuberculosis and its risk factors across five separate age groups, from 1990 to 2021, and to report on age-specific progress between 2015 and 2020.

METHODS

We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021 (GBD 2021) analytical framework to compute age-specific tuberculosis mortality and incidence estimates for 204 countries and territories (1990-2021 inclusive). We quantified tuberculosis mortality among individuals without HIV co-infection using 22 603 site-years of vital registration data, 1718 site-years of verbal autopsy data, 825 site-years of sample-based vital registration data, 680 site-years of mortality surveillance data, and 9 site-years of minimally invasive tissue sample (MITS) diagnoses data as inputs into the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling platform. Age-specific HIV and tuberculosis deaths were established with a population attributable fraction approach. We analysed all available population-based data sources, including prevalence surveys, annual case notifications, tuberculin surveys, and tuberculosis mortality, in DisMod-MR 2.1 to produce internally consistent age-specific estimates of tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality. We also estimated age-specific tuberculosis mortality without HIV co-infection that is attributable to the independent and combined effects of three risk factors (smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes). As a secondary analysis, we examined the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis mortality without HIV co-infection by comparing expected tuberculosis deaths, modelled with trends in tuberculosis deaths from 2015 to 2019 in vital registration data, with observed tuberculosis deaths in 2020 and 2021 for countries with available cause-specific mortality data.

FINDINGS

We estimated 9·40 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8·36 to 10·5) tuberculosis incident cases and 1·35 million (1·23 to 1·52) deaths due to tuberculosis in 2021. At the global level, the all-age tuberculosis incidence rate declined by 6·26% (5·27 to 7·25) between 2015 and 2020 (the WHO End TB strategy evaluation period). 15 of 204 countries achieved a 20% decrease in all-age tuberculosis incidence between 2015 and 2020, eight of which were in western sub-Saharan Africa. When stratified by age, global tuberculosis incidence rates decreased by 16·5% (14·8 to 18·4) in children younger than 5 years, 16·2% (14·2 to 17·9) in those aged 5-14 years, 6·29% (5·05 to 7·70) in those aged 15-49 years, 5·72% (4·02 to 7·39) in those aged 50-69 years, and 8·48% (6·74 to 10·4) in those aged 70 years and older, from 2015 to 2020. Global tuberculosis deaths decreased by 11·9% (5·77 to 17·0) from 2015 to 2020. 17 countries attained a 35% reduction in deaths due to tuberculosis between 2015 and 2020, most of which were in eastern Europe (six countries) and central Europe (four countries). There was variable progress by age: a 35·3% (26·7 to 41·7) decrease in tuberculosis deaths in children younger than 5 years, a 29·5% (25·5 to 34·1) decrease in those aged 5-14 years, a 15·2% (10·0 to 20·2) decrease in those aged 15-49 years, a 7·97% (0·472 to 14·1) decrease in those aged 50-69 years, and a 3·29% (-5·56 to 9·07) decrease in those aged 70 years and older. Removing the combined effects of the three attributable risk factors would have reduced the number of all-age tuberculosis deaths from 1·39 million (1·28 to 1·54) to 1·00 million (0·703 to 1·23) in 2020, representing a 36·5% (21·5 to 54·8) reduction in tuberculosis deaths compared to those observed in 2015. 41 countries were included in our analysis of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis deaths without HIV co-infection in 2020, and 20 countries were included in the analysis for 2021. In 2020, 50 900 (95% CI 49 700 to 52 400) deaths were expected across all ages, compared to an observed 45 500 deaths, corresponding to 5340 (4070 to 6920) fewer deaths; in 2021, 39 600 (38 300 to 41 100) deaths were expected across all ages compared to an observed 39 000 deaths, corresponding to 657 (-713 to 2180) fewer deaths.

INTERPRETATION

Despite accelerated progress in reducing the global burden of tuberculosis in the past decade, the world did not attain the first interim milestones of the WHO End TB Strategy in 2020. The pace of decline has been unequal with respect to age, with older adults (ie, those aged >50 years) having the slowest progress. As countries refine their national tuberculosis programmes and recalibrate for achieving the 2035 targets, they could consider learning from the strategies of countries that achieved the 2020 milestones, as well as consider targeted interventions to improve outcomes in older age groups.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period.

METHODS

22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.

INTERPRETATION

Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national incidence of six major immune-mediated inflammatory diseases: findings from the global burden of disease study 2019

Background

The causes for immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs) are diverse and the incidence trends of IMIDs from specific causes are rarely studied. The study aims to investigate the pattern and trend of IMIDs from 1990 to 2019.

Methods

We collected detailed information on six major causes of IMIDs, including asthma, inflammatory bowel disease, multiple sclerosis, rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, and atopic dermatitis, between 1990 and 2019, derived from the Global Burden of Disease study in 2019. The average annual percent change (AAPC) in number of incidents and age standardized incidence rate (ASR) on IMIDs, by sex, age, region, and causes, were calculated to quantify the temporal trends.

Findings

In 2019, rheumatoid arthritis, atopic dermatitis, asthma, multiple sclerosis, psoriasis, inflammatory bowel disease accounted 1.59%, 36.17%, 54.71%, 0.09%, 6.84%, 0.60% of overall new IMIDs cases, respectively. The ASR of IMIDs showed substantial regional and global variation with the highest in High SDI region, High-income North America, and United States of America. Throughout human lifespan, the age distribution of incident cases from six IMIDs was quite different. Globally, incident cases of IMIDs increased with an AAPC of 0.68 and the ASR decreased with an AAPC of -0.34 from 1990 to 2019. The incident cases increased across six IMIDs, the ASR of rheumatoid arthritis increased (0.21, 95% CI 0.18, 0.25), while the ASR of asthma (AAPC = -0.41), inflammatory bowel disease (AAPC = -0.72), multiple sclerosis (AAPC = -0.26), psoriasis (AAPC = -0.77), and atopic dermatitis (AAPC = -0.15) decreased. The ASR of overall and six individual IMID increased with SDI at regional and global level. Countries with higher ASR in 1990 experienced a more rapid decrease in ASR.

Interpretation

The incidence patterns of IMIDs varied considerably across the world. Innovative prevention and integrative management strategy are urgently needed to mitigate the increasing ASR of rheumatoid arthritis and upsurging new cases of other five IMIDs, respectively.

Funding

The Global Burden of Disease Study is funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. The project funded by Scientific Research Fund of Sichuan Academy of Medical Sciences & Sichuan Provincial People's Hospital (2022QN38).

Global burden of peripheral artery disease and its risk factors, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Peripheral artery disease is a growing public health problem. We aimed to estimate the global disease burden of peripheral artery disease, its risk factors, and temporospatial trends to inform policy and public measures.

METHODS

Data on peripheral artery disease were modelled using the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 database. Prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and mortality estimates of peripheral artery disease were extracted from GBD 2019. Total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rate of peripheral artery disease attributed to modifiable risk factors were also assessed.

FINDINGS

In 2019, the number of people aged 40 years and older with peripheral artery disease was 113 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 99·2-128·4), with a global prevalence of 1·52% (95% UI 1·33-1·72), of which 42·6% was in countries with low to middle Socio-demographic Index (SDI). The global prevalence of peripheral artery disease was higher in older people, (14·91% [12·41-17·87] in those aged 80-84 years), and was generally higher in females than in males. Globally, the total number of DALYs attributable to modifiable risk factors in 2019 accounted for 69·4% (64·2-74·3) of total peripheral artery disease DALYs. The prevalence of peripheral artery disease was highest in countries with high SDI and lowest in countries with low SDI, whereas DALY and mortality rates showed U-shaped curves, with the highest burden in the high and low SDI quintiles.

INTERPRETATION

The total number of people with peripheral artery disease has increased globally from 1990 to 2019. Despite the lower prevalence of peripheral artery disease in males and low-income countries, these groups showed similar DALY rates to females and higher-income countries, highlighting disproportionate burden in these groups. Modifiable risk factors were responsible for around 70% of the global peripheral artery disease burden. Public measures could mitigate the burden of peripheral artery disease by modifying risk factors.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Association of Electronic Cigarette Exposure on Cardiovascular Health: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Despite the growing use of electronic cigarettes (EC) in the Unites States, particularly among young people, and their perceived safety, current evidence suggests that EC usage may cause adverse clinical cardiovascular effects. Therefore, we aim to pool all studies evaluating the association of EC exposure with cardiovascular health. Medline, Cochrane CENTRAL, and Scopus were searched for studies from January 1, 2006 until December 31, 2022. Randomized and observational studies reporting cardiovascular outcomes, hemodynamic parameters, and biomarkers of platelet physiology, before and after acute or chronic EC exposure were pooled using a random-effects model. Overall, 27 studies (n = 863) were included. Heart rate increased significantly after acute EC exposure (weighted mean difference [WMD]: 0.76 bpm; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.48, 1.03; P < 0.00001; I2 = 92%). Significant increases in systolic blood pressure (WMD: 0.28 mmHg; 95% CI, 0.06, 0.51; P = 0.01; I2 = 94%), diastolic blood pressure (WMD: 0.38 mmHg; 95% CI, 0.16, 0.60; P = 0.0006; I2 = 90%), and PWV (WMD: 0.38; 95% CI, 0.13, 0.63; P = 0.003; I2 = 100%) were also observed. Augmentation index increased significantly (SMD: 0.39; 95% CI, 0.11, 0.67; P = 0.007; I2 = 90%), whereas reduction in flow-mediated dilation (WMD: -1.48; 95% CI, -2.49, -0.47; P = 0.004; I2 = 45%) was observed. Moreover, significant rise in both soluble P-selectin (WMD: 4.73; 95% CI, 0.80, 8.66; P = 0.02; I2 = 98%) and CD40L (WMD: 1.14; 95% CI, 0.41, 1.87; P = 0.002; I2 = 79%) was observed. Our results demonstrate that smoking EC is associated with a significant increase in cardiovascular hemodynamic measures and biomarkers. Our findings can aid policymakers in making informed decisions regarding the regulation of EC to ensure public safety.

A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis on Effectiveness of Mineralocorticoid Receptor Antagonists in Reducing the Risk of Atrial Fibrillation

Mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists (MRAs) are known to improve clinical outcomes in heart failure, particularly heart failure with reduced ejection fraction. However, the effect of MRAs on the incidence of and recurrence of atrial fibrillation (AF) is not well established. Therefore, databases, such as PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane Central, were searched from inception to September 2021 for randomized controlled trials of MRAs with AF as an outcome. Risk ratios (RRs) with 95% confidence interval (CIs) were combined using the random-effects model. A total of 10 randomized controlled trials (n = 11,356) were included. Our pooled analysis demonstrates that MRAs reduce the risk of AF occurrence by 23% compared with the control therapy (RR 0.77, 95% CI 0.65 to 0.91, p = 0.003, I2 = 40%). Subgroup analysis demonstrated that MRAs reduced the risk of both new-onset AF (RR 0.84, 95% CI 0.61 to 1.16, p = 0.28, I2 = 43%) and recurrent AF (RR 0.73, 95% CI 0.59 to 0.90, p = 0.004, I2 = 26%) similarly; p interaction = 0.48. Our meta-analysis concludes that MRAs reduce the risk of development of AF overall, with consistent effects in new-onset and recurrent AF.

Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Diabetes is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide, and affects people regardless of country, age group, or sex. Using the most recent evidentiary and analytical framework from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), we produced location-specific, age-specific, and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden from 1990 to 2021, the proportion of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in 2021, the proportion of the type 2 diabetes burden attributable to selected risk factors, and projections of diabetes prevalence through 2050.

METHODS

Estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden were computed in 204 countries and territories, across 25 age groups, for males and females separately and combined; these estimates comprised lost years of healthy life, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; defined as the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]). We used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach to estimate deaths due to diabetes, incorporating 25 666 location-years of data from vital registration and verbal autopsy reports in separate total (including both type 1 and type 2 diabetes) and type-specific models. Other forms of diabetes, including gestational and monogenic diabetes, were not explicitly modelled. Total and type 1 diabetes prevalence was estimated by use of a Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to analyse 1527 location-years of data from the scientific literature, survey microdata, and insurance claims; type 2 diabetes estimates were computed by subtracting type 1 diabetes from total estimates. Mortality and prevalence estimates, along with standard life expectancy and disability weights, were used to calculate YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs. When appropriate, we extrapolated estimates to a hypothetical population with a standardised age structure to allow comparison in populations with different age structures. We used the comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the risk-attributable type 2 diabetes burden for 16 risk factors falling under risk categories including environmental and occupational factors, tobacco use, high alcohol use, high body-mass index (BMI), dietary factors, and low physical activity. Using a regression framework, we forecast type 1 and type 2 diabetes prevalence through 2050 with Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and high BMI as predictors, respectively.

FINDINGS

In 2021, there were 529 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 500-564) people living with diabetes worldwide, and the global age-standardised total diabetes prevalence was 6·1% (5·8-6·5). At the super-region level, the highest age-standardised rates were observed in north Africa and the Middle East (9·3% [8·7-9·9]) and, at the regional level, in Oceania (12·3% [11·5-13·0]). Nationally, Qatar had the world's highest age-specific prevalence of diabetes, at 76·1% (73·1-79·5) in individuals aged 75-79 years. Total diabetes prevalence-especially among older adults-primarily reflects type 2 diabetes, which in 2021 accounted for 96·0% (95·1-96·8) of diabetes cases and 95·4% (94·9-95·9) of diabetes DALYs worldwide. In 2021, 52·2% (25·5-71·8) of global type 2 diabetes DALYs were attributable to high BMI. The contribution of high BMI to type 2 diabetes DALYs rose by 24·3% (18·5-30·4) worldwide between 1990 and 2021. By 2050, more than 1·31 billion (1·22-1·39) people are projected to have diabetes, with expected age-standardised total diabetes prevalence rates greater than 10% in two super-regions: 16·8% (16·1-17·6) in north Africa and the Middle East and 11·3% (10·8-11·9) in Latin America and Caribbean. By 2050, 89 (43·6%) of 204 countries and territories will have an age-standardised rate greater than 10%.

INTERPRETATION

Diabetes remains a substantial public health issue. Type 2 diabetes, which makes up the bulk of diabetes cases, is largely preventable and, in some cases, potentially reversible if identified and managed early in the disease course. However, all evidence indicates that diabetes prevalence is increasing worldwide, primarily due to a rise in obesity caused by multiple factors. Preventing and controlling type 2 diabetes remains an ongoing challenge. It is essential to better understand disparities in risk factor profiles and diabetes burden across populations, to inform strategies to successfully control diabetes risk factors within the context of multiple and complex drivers.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Clinical Outcomes in Hypertensive Emergency: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background To study the prevalence and types of hypertension-mediated organ damage and the prognosis of patients presenting to the emergency department (ED) with hypertensive emergencies. Methods and Results PubMed was queried from inception through November 30, 2021. Studies were included if they reported the prevalence or prognosis of hypertensive emergencies in patients presenting to the ED. Studies reporting data on hypertensive emergencies in other departments were excluded. The extracted data were arcsine transformed and pooled using a random-effects model. Fifteen studies (n=4370 patients) were included. Pooled analysis demonstrates that the prevalence of hypertensive emergencies was 0.5% (95% CI, 0.40%-0.70%) in all patients presenting to ED and 35.9% (95% CI, 26.7%-45.5%) among patients presenting in ED with hypertensive crisis. Ischemic stroke (28.1% [95% CI, 18.7%-38.6%]) was the most prevalent hypertension-mediated organ damage, followed by pulmonary edema/acute heart failure (24.1% [95% CI, 19.0%-29.7%]), hemorrhagic stroke (14.6% [95% CI, 9.9%-20.0%]), acute coronary syndrome (10.8% [95% CI, 7.3%-14.8%]), renal failure (8.0% [95% CI, 2.9%-15.5%]), subarachnoid hemorrhage (6.9% [95% CI, 3.9%-10.7%]), encephalopathy (6.1% [95% CI, 1.9%-12.4%]), and the least prevalent was aortic dissection (1.8% [95% CI, 1.1%-2.8%]). Prevalence of in-hospital mortality among patients with hypertensive emergency was 9.9% (95% CI, 1.4%-24.6%). Conclusions Our findings demonstrate a pattern of hypertension-mediated organ damage primarily affecting the brain and heart, substantial cardiovascular renal morbidity and mortality, as well as subsequent hospitalization in patients with hypertensive emergencies presenting to the ED.

Use of abdominal compression device in colonoscopy: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background/Aims

Colonoscopy for screening is associated with unpleasant experiences for patients, and abdominal compression devices have been developed to minimize these problems. However, there is a paucity of data supporting the therapeutic benefits of this strategy. This study examined the effects of using an abdominal compression device during colonoscopy on the cecal intubation time (CIT), abdominal compression, patient comfort, and postural changes.

Methods

We searched PubMed and Scopus (from inception to November 2021) for randomized controlled trials that assessed the effects of an abdominal compression device during colonoscopy on CIT, abdominal compression, patient comfort, and postural change. A random-effects meta-analysis was performed. Weighted mean differences (WMDs) and Mantel-Haenszel odds ratios (ORs) were calculated.

Results

Our pooled analysis of seven randomized controlled trials revealed that abdominal compression devices significantly reduced CIT (WMD, -0.76 [-1.49 to -0.03] minutes; p=0.04), abdominal compression (OR, 0.52; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.28-0.94; p=0.03), and postural changes (OR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.27-0.78; p=0.004) during colonoscopy. However, our results did not show a significant change in patient comfort (WMD, -0.48; 95% CI, -1.05 to 0.08; p=0.09) when using an abdominal compression device.

Conclusions

Our findings demonstrate that employing an abdominal compression device may reduce CIT, abdominal compression, and postural change but have no impact on patient comfort.

Management of Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction in Patients With Diabetes Mellitus and Chronic Kidney Disease

Heart failure (HF), diabetes, and chronic kidney disease (CKD) frequently coexist, with one comorbidity worsening the prognosis of another. β-blockers, angiotensin-receptor-neprilysin inhibitors, renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system inhibitors, mineralocorticoid-receptor antagonists, and sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors all have been shown to reduce mortality in patients with HF with reduced ejection fraction. However, their uptake in real-world clinical practice remains low, especially among patients who have multiple other comorbidities such as CKD and diabetes. The management of HF in patients with diabetes and CKD can be especially challenging because these patients typically are older, frail, and have multiple other comorbidities, and guideline-directed medical therapy used in HF potentially can affect renal function acutely and chronically. In this article, we discuss the available evidence for each of the foundational HF therapies in patients with diabetes and CKD, emphasizing the current challenges and outlining future directions to optimize the management of HF among these high-risk patients.

Temporal Trends and Outcomes of Implantable Cardioverter Defibrillators in Heart Failure and Chronic Kidney Disease in the United States

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) and hemodialysis increase the risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD) in heart failure (HF); however, national trends in utilization and outcomes of implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) in this population remain unknown. We sought to evaluate the utilization and outcomes of ICD therapy in HF patients with CKD and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) using the National Inpatient Sample from 2009 to 2018. Hospitalizations with a discharge diagnosis of systolic HF and ICD implantation were identified and stratified by stages of kidney disease. A total of 281,219 systolic HF hospitalizations who underwent ICD implantation were included. A significant decrease in inpatient ICD implantation was observed over the past decade (3.7% in 2009 to 1.1% in 2018) regardless of renal impairment. In-hospital mortality was highest in ESRD, followed by CKD compared with patients with no CKD. Length of hospital stay and hospitalization costs were also significantly higher in patients with CKD and ESRD. The overall utilization of inpatient ICD implantation has decreased in systolic HF patients and inpatient ICD placement in CKD is associated with an increased risk of mortality and adverse clinical outcomes. This indicates that patients with renal impairment and HF represent a sicker cohort than the general HF population.

High-Intensity Interval Training Versus Moderate Continuous Training in Patients With Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

High-intensity interval training (HIIT) is a novel training approach that improves cardiopulmonary fitness and functional capacity in numerous chronic conditions, however its impact in patients with heart failure (HF) with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) is uncertain. We evaluated data from prior studies reporting the effects of HIIT versus moderate continuous training (MCT), on cardiopulmonary exercise outcomes in patients with HFpEF. PubMed and SCOPUS were queried from inception till February 1st, 2022 for all randomized controlled trials (RCT) comparing the effect of HIIT versus MCT in patients with HFpEF on peak oxygen consumption (peak VO₂), left atrial volume index (LAVI), respiratory exchange ratio (RER), and ventilatory efficiency (VE/CO₂ slope). A random-effects model was applied, and the weighted mean difference (WMD) of each outcome was reported with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Three RCTs (total N = 150 patients with HFpEF), with a follow-up of 4 to 52 weeks were included in our analysis. Our pooled analysis demonstrated that HIIT significantly improved peak VO₂ (WMD = 1.46 mL/kg/min (0.88, 2.05); P < 0.00001; I² = 0%), as compared to MCT. However, no statistically significant change was demonstrated for LAVI (WMD = -1.71 mL/m² (-5.58, 2.17); P = 0.39; I² = 22%), RER (WMD = -0.10 (-0.32, 0.12); P = 0.38; I² = 0%), and VE/CO₂ slope (WMD = 0.62 (-1.99, 3.24); P = 0.64; I² = 67%) in patients with HFpEF. Across current RCT data, HIIT, compared to MCT, had a significant impact on improving peak VO₂. Conversely, there was no significant change in LAVI, RER, and VE/CO₂ slope between HFpEF patients undertaking HIIT as opposed to MCT.

Bibliometric analysis of the literature on von Willebrand disease: Research status and trends

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Von Willebrand disease (VWD) is considered the most prevalent inherited bleeding disorder. The current study aims to demonstrate the research status and trends on VWD worldwide.

METHODS

Bibliometric analysis was used to investigate the global research productivity and trends on VWD. The publications on VWD from 1956 to 2021 were extracted using the Web of Science database. In the VWD domain, a total of 3,643 records were analyzed for authorship and collaboration patterns, yearly productivity, highly cited documents, relevant source of publication, most prolific scholars, productive countries, and organizations.

RESULTS

The most productive journal, author, organization, and country were 'Haemophilia' with 439 publications, 'Favaloro EJ' with 119 publications, the 'University of Milan' with 192 publications, and the United States of America (USA) with 1,048 publications, respectively. The document with the highest citations was 'Srivastava A, 2013, Haemophilia,' which received 1,154 citations in total. In 2016, the highest number of publications shared by two author patterns was 28. With 199 publications, the year 2021 remained on the top, while the citation-wise analysis identified 2006 as the top year with 5,379 citations.

CONCLUSIONS

Research productivity and publication trends on VWD revealed that the USA emerged as the most significant contributing country. The 'University of Milan' was the most significant contributing organization, while 'Favaloro EJ' was the most significant author. 'Hemophilia' was found to be the most significant journal in the field of VWD. It is recommended that researchers from countries with significant contributions to the field should collaborate with researchers from Asian countries and other countries that lack behind in research in the domain of VWD.(www.actabiomedica.it).

The Safety and Efficacy of GLP-1 Receptor Agonists in Heart Failure Patients: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Evaluation of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RAs) usage in heart failure (HF) patients with or without type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) could be proven to be a critical breakthrough in treatment options available for these patients. Our study focuses on understanding the safety and efficacy of GLP-1 RAs in this patient population by pooling the data from 9 randomized controlled trials (RCTs) comprising 871 subjects. As compared with the placebo, GLP-1 RAs did not improve major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) which include cardiovascular (CV) mortality and heart failure (HF) hospitalizations, our primary outcome. CV mortality (RR = 1.03, 95% CI = 0.56-1.88, P = 0.92) and HF hospitalizations (RR = 1.18, 95%CI = 0.93-1.51, P = 0.18). Similarly, GLP-1 RAs did not improve our secondary findings of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) and 6-minute walk test (6MWT). LVEF (RR = 1.96, 95%CI = -0.16-4.07, P = 0.07) or 6 MWT (RR = 8.43, 95% CI = -2.69-19.56, P = 0.14). This meta-analysis shows that GLP-1 RAs do not improve cardiovascular outcomes in HF patients with or without T2DM.

Management of Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction

Heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) is a complex and progressive clinical condition characterized by dyspnea and functional impairment. HFrEF has a high burden of mortality and readmission rate making it one of the most significant public health challenges. Basic treatment strategies include diuretics for symptom relief and use of quadruple therapy (Angiotensin receptor blocker/neprilysin inhibitors, evidence-based beta-blockers, mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists, and sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitors) for reduction in hospitalizations, all-cause mortality, and cardiovascular mortality. Despite compelling evidence of clinical benefit, guideline directed medical therapy is vastly underutilized in the real-world clinical practice. Other medications such as intravenous iron, ivabradine, hydralazine/nitrates and vericiguat may also have a role in certain subgroup of HFrEF patients. Specific groups of patients with HFrEF may also be candidates for various device therapies such as implanted cardioverter defibrillators, cardiac resynchronization therapy and trans catheter mitral valve repair. This review provides a comprehensive overview of drug and device management approaches for patients with HFrEF, recommendations for initiation and titrations of therapies, and challenges associated with guideline directed medical therapy in the management of patients with HFrEF (Graphical abstract).

Mediterranean Diet and its Effect on Endothelial Function: A Meta-analysis and Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

Endothelial dysfunction serves as an early marker for the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD); therefore, it is a site of therapeutic interventions to reduce the risk of CVD.

AIMS

To examine the effect of the Mediterranean diet (MedDiet), as an intervention, on structural and functional parameters of endothelial function, and how it may reduce the risk of CVD and associated mortality.

METHODS

Medline database was searched for randomized controlled trials. Random-effects meta-analysis was conducted on 21 independent datasets. Meta-regression and subgroup analysis were performed to assess whether the effect of MedDiet was modified by health status (healthy subjects or with increased CVD risk), type of MedDiet intervention (alone or combined), type of parameter (functional or structural), study design (cross-over or parallel), BMI, age, and study duration. Our study used sample size, mean, and standard deviation of endothelial function measurements for both MedDiet intervention and control in the analyses.

RESULTS

Inverse relationship between endothelial function and intake of MedDiet was observed (SMD: 0.34; 95% CI: 0.16, 0.52; P = 0.0001). Overall, MedDiet increased FMD by 1.39% (95% CI: 0.47, 2.19; P < 0.001). There was a significant improvement in endothelial function in both healthy patients and in those with an increased risk of CVD. No significant variation was observed in the effects of MedDiet on endothelial function, due to study design or type of intervention.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings support that MedDiet can reduce the risk of CVD by improving endothelial function.

Incidence and Comparison of Suicide in Various Phases of the Menstrual Cycle: a Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Background: Suicide is a global health concern. There are reproductive health-related factors that are responsible for increasing the risk of female suicide. There are a number of studies examining the association between suicide and the menstrual cycle, but still, there are no conclusive findings. Aim: We aimed to pool data from all the studies reporting data on suicides and the menstrual cycle phase to report the following outcomes: incidence of suicidal deaths in the menstrual, secretory, and proliferative phases, and to find out whether the burden of suicide in the menstrual phase in particular, was more at a young age (18-35 years) or middle age (36-50years). Methods: The PubMed database was extensively searched from inception till 12th April 2022. The data for the number of events occurring for each outcome were pooled using random-effects model and forest plots were created. Results: Five articles were shortlisted for inclusion in our analysis. Incidence of suicide in the secretory phase was highest at 45.2% [95% CI, 0.367–0.537]. The incidence of suicide, when occurring in the menstrual phase, was reported to be 68.4% (95 CI, 0.317–1.052) and 31.6% (95 CI, -0.052.3–0.68) for young-aged and middle-aged victims, respectively. Conclusion: Our results demonstrate that the menstrual phase has a lower risk of mortality due to suicide when compared to the other two phases of the menstrual cycle. Nevertheless, when suicide occurred in the menstrual phase, the incidence of suicide among the younger age-group was higher than for those in the middle age-group.

Survey of knowledge and attitude towards fibromyalgia among physicians in Karachi, Pakistan

Objectives

Our study aims to assess knowledge and understanding of FM among doctors employed at a tertiary care hospital in Karachi, Pakistan with a focus on its diagnostic criteria, treatment modalities, and general knowledge of symptoms.

Study Design

Cross-sectional Study.

Methods

Our cross-sectional study recruited participants through convenience sampling. A total of 104 participants responded, which included (a) House Officers, (b) Medical Officers, and (c) Residents. A structured questionnaire was used, and an electronic form was generated which was then emailed to the participants to acquire their responses.

Results

The majority (66.3%) of our respondents were female and the median age was 26 years. A majority (93.3%) accepted FM as a separate and distinct clinical identity, and 79.8% were confident in recognizing its general symptoms. Widespread pain (95.2%) and fatigue (80.8%) were correctly identified as most commonly observed symptoms. Moreover, 68.3% of respondents possessed no knowledge of both ACR 1990 and 2010 diagnostic criteria for FM. Of those aware, majority favored using the most recent ACR 2010 criteria (72.7%). Majority of our respondents (75%) preferred using pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions simultaneously in the treatment.

Conclusions

Our study indicates that while physicians have satisfactory knowledge of the symptoms and treatment modalities of FM, a knowledge gap concerning its diagnostic criteria exists. Proper treatment can only be successful when physicians successfully diagnose FM, therefore, future training programs should use this fact as a stepping stone for advances in its healthcare.

Effect of novel glucose lowering agents on non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The efficacy of novel glucose-lowering drugs in treating non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in patients with and without type-2 diabetic patients (T2DM) remains unclear.

AIM

To conduct a meta-analysis to evaluate the efficacy of 3 novel glucose-lowering drug classes, namely glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RA), sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors, and dipeptidyl-peptidase-4 (DPP4) inhibitors on hepatic parameters: Aspartate Aminotransferase (AST), Alanine Aminotransferase (ALT), Gamma-Glutamyl Transferase (GGT), Bilirubin, and FIB-4 (Fibrosis).

METHODS

MEDLINE was searched from inception through October 2021 for randomized placebo or active glucose-lowering drug-controlled trials. A random-effects model was used to pool the results. A p-value of less than or equal to 0.05 was considered significant. Results were presented as weighted mean differences (WMD) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

Our pooled analysis consisted of 40 studies. A significant reduction was seen in AST with SGLT2 inhibitors (WMD = -2.31 IU/L, 95%CI: -3.16 to -1.47 IU/L, P < 0.00001) and GLP-1RA (WMD = -3.29 IU/L, 95%CI: -5.98 to -0.61 IU/L, P = 0.02). Similarly, significant reduction was seen in ALT with SGLT2 inhibitors (WMD = -5.93 IU/L, 95%CI: -7.70 to -4.16 IU/L, P < 0.00001) and GLP-1RAs (WMD = -9.92 IU/L, 95%CI: -19.89 to 0.05 IU/L, P = 0.05). In contrast, DPP-4 inhibitors showed no significant reduction in AST (WMD = -3.20 IU/L, 95%CI: -11.13 to 4.73 IU/L, P = 0.43) or ALT (WMD = -4.81 IU/L, 95%CI: -15.83 to 6.21 IU/L, P = 0.39). A significant reduction in GGT was seen with SGLT2 inhibitors (WMD = -6.49 IU/L, 95%CI: -11.09 to -1.89 IU/L, P = 0.006) and GLP-1RAs (WMD = -12.38 IU/L, 95%CI: -15.69 to -9.07 IU/L, P < 0.00001). However, significant results were not observed with DPP-4 inhibitors (WMD = -0.92 IU/L, 95%CI: -5.80 to 3.96 IU/L, P = 0.71). There was a statistically significant reduction in FIB-4 index with SGLT2 inhibitors (WMD = -0.21, 95%CI: -0.40 to -0.03, P = 0.02) and GLP-1 RA (WMD = -0.15, 95%CI: -0.29 to 0.00, P = 0.05). Lastly, SGLT2 inhibitors led to a significant change in bilirubin levels (WMD = 2.03, 95%CI: 0.76 to 3.30, P = 0.002) while the change in bilirubin was not significant with GLP-1 agonists (WMD = -0.21, 95%CI: -1.09 to 0.66, P = 0.63) and DPP-4 inhibitors (WMD = 0.14, 95%CI: -1.55 to 1.83, P = 0.87).

CONCLUSION

SGLT2 inhibitors and GLP-1 agonists have a beneficial effect on hepatic parameters in patients with NAFLD. However, further research is needed to evaluate the effect of DPP-4 inhibitors on hepatic function properly.

Effectiveness of Autologous Fat Transfer in the Treatment of Scar-Related Conditions: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Autologous fat transfer (AFT) has been introduced as a potential treatment option for scar-tissue and its related symptoms. However, the scientific evidence for its effectiveness remains unclear. This meta-analysis aims to evaluate the available evidence regarding the effectiveness of autologous fat transfer for the treatment of scar-tissue and its related conditions.

METHODS

PubMed/Medline database was queried from its inception till the end of November 2021. All the relevant studies assessing the effect of autologous fat transfer in the treatment of scar-related conditions were pooled in using a random-effects model.

RESULTS

9 studies (n=179) were included in the meta-analysis. Pooled analysis demonstrates significant improvement in all subscales of the POSAS patient score with most prominent in color 2.4 points (95% CI 1.78-3.041), stiffness 2.9 points (95% CI 2.33-3.45), irregularity 2.2 points (95% CI 1.093-3.297) and thickness 1.8 points (95% CI 0.804-2.719), respectively. Pain and itch improved relatively lesser, 1.3 points (95% CI 0.958-1.674) and 0.6 points (95% CI 0.169-1.215), respectively. The POSAS observer scale showed a relatively lower improvement with the least in vascularity 0.5 points (95% CI 0.098-0.96), pigmentation 0.8 points (95% CI 0.391-1.276) and surface area 0.8 points (95% CI 0.34-1.25). Thickness improved by 1.4 points (95% CI 0.582-2.3), relief 1.0 points (95% CI 0.461-1.545) and pliability 1.5 points (95% CI 1.039-2.036).

CONCLUSION

Our findings demonstrate that autologous fat transfer (AFT) is a promising treatment for scar-related conditions as it provides beneficial results in the scar quality. Future research should focus on the long-term effects of AFT and high-level evidence studies such as, randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and cohort studies are required.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE III

This journal requires that authors assign a level of evidence to each article. For a full description of these Evidence-Based Medicine ratings, please refer to the Table of Contents or the online Instructions to Authors www.springer.com/00266 .

The location of structural difference between ovotransferrin types A and B in hens

A comparison of ovotransferrin types A and B showed that in starch gel electrophoresis both types consisted of one major and one minor component. Both types have a similar amino acid composition as do the fragments from each type. Starch gel electrophoresis shows that the cause of the difference in the electrophoretic mobilities between ovotransferrin types A and B lies in the C-terminal half of the molecule. No physiological difference was found between types A and B, both types donate iron to chicken embryo red cells at equal rate.

Consistency in the observation of features used to classify duct carcinoma in situ (DCIS) of the breast

AIM

To determine interobserver and intra-observer agreement in the assessment of cytological grade and intraduct necrosis in pure duct carcinoma in situ (DCIS) of the breast.

METHODS

Sixty unselected cases with illustrated diagnostic criteria were circulated to 19 practising histopathologists.

RESULTS

Overall agreement was moderate for cytological grade in three categories: 71% agreement; weighted kappa (kappa w), 0.36; intraduct necrosis in three categories (absent, present, extensive): 76% agreement; kappa w, 0.57; and the Van Nuys classification system: 73% agreement; kappa w, 0.48. Agreement was no better among observers participating in the National External Quality Assurance Programme. Intra-observer agreement for cytological assessment (69.6% agreement; kappa w, 0.52) and intraduct necrosis (68.3% agreement; kappa w, 0.48) was moderate, suggesting that individual variation rather than precision of criteria contributes to the lack of agreement.

CONCLUSIONS

Moderate agreement on observations can be achieved by non-specialist pathologists, with better agreement on necrosis than cytological grade. There was evidence of consistent individual bias towards over or under scoring cytological grade, which could be corrected with adequate and prompt feedback.

Juvenile xanthogranuloma of the nasal cavity

Juvenile xanthogranuloma is a benign, normolipaemic, self-healing condition and a type of histiocytosis that occurs most frequently in infants and children. This condition usually presents with solitary or multiple cutaneous lesions and occasionally with visceral lesions. We report a case of juvenile xanthogranuloma occurring in the nasal cavity. We believe this is the first report, in the English literature, of juvenile xanthogranuloma occurring in this site.

Gastrostomy-related pancreatitis in a child: a fatal case

A case of acute pancreatitis following gastrostomy feeding tube insertion is presented. This is a rare and fatal complication, which has not been described before. The role of the gastrostomy catheter and total enteral nutrition in the causation of acute pancreatitis is discussed. Pathologists and clinicians should be aware of this disastrous and potentially avoidable condition.

Primary osteosarcoma of the breast

Osteosarcoma is a rare primary breast tumour. We report on a 55-year-old woman who presented with a left breast lump and a mammogram suggestive of carcinoma. At lumpectomy, a 3 cm mass was removed. Histology was consistent with primary osteosarcoma. There was satisfactory surgical clearance and no evidence of metastasis. She received four courses of adjuvant post-operative chemotherapy and remains free of disease at 14 months from diagnosis.

Brenner tumour of the vagina

Polyps of the vagina are rare and are either of inflammatory/reactive or neoplastic origin. A case of extraovarian Brenner tumour of the vagina in a postmenopausal woman, who presented with a vaginal polyp, is described. The polyp was excised and on histological examination, had the triphasic pattern (transitional, glandular and stromal) characteristic of Brenner tumour. The histogenesis of Brenner tumour is discussed in the context of this unusual location and the controversy of its origin.

Sudden death following cesarean section for placenta previa and accreta

A case of disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC) in a young woman after cesarean section for placenta previa and accreta is presented. Evidence of extensive pulmonary embolization by trophoblastic tissue, together with microthrombi in the cerebral and pulmonary blood vessels, is found at autopsy. Awareness of this syndrome and prompt action are necessary to prevent tragic consequences.

Unusual presentation of a nasal (antrochoanal) polyp

A case is described of expulsion of an autoamputated antrochoanal nasal polyp per mouth in a young patient. This rare complication of a nasal polyp is potentially dangerous.

Sudden death caused by giant cell myocarditis following coronary artery bypass

An unusual case of idiopathic giant cell myocarditis (GCM) is described. The patient had a 5-year history of stable and unstable angina, poorly controlled by medical treatment. He underwent a successful coronary artery bypass, but 2 months later died suddenly at home. A coroner's autopsy revealed isolated GCM. This newly described possible association between the surgery and the condition is discussed and the pertinent literature is reviewed. We suggest that the list of causes of GCM in postoperative patients should also include foreign-body reaction. Our findings support the view that myocarditis occasionally masquerades as fatal acute myocardial infarction.

Malignant melanoma of penis and male urethra. Is it a difficult tumor to diagnose?

Two cases of malignant melanoma of the penis and male urethra are presented in which the diagnosis was difficult to make clinically and histopathologically. Our findings support the general opinion that melanomas at this site have a poor prognosis.

Histopathology: its role in the diagnosis of a child with intussusception

Spontaneous expulsion of a small portion of the intestinal mucosa per rectum, in an infant, associated with ileocolic intussusception is an extremely rare condition. This appears to be the first report of such a clinical presentation. The initial diagnosis was raised by the histopathologist following examination of the eliminated piece of tissue. Subsequent barium enema and laparotomy confirmed the diagnosis and the ileocolic intussusception was successfully reduced. This unusual presentation, together with a review of the pertinent literature, is discussed. Our findings indicate that both the clinicians and histopathologists should be aware of this phenomenon and stress the importance of the histological examination of any unusual faecal matter. This may prove to be a simple, quick and cheap method of investigation of this condition.

Actinomycosis associated with pilonidal sinus of the penis

We report a case of actinomycosis associated with a penile pilonidal sinus. This association does not appear to have been described previously. We recommend the submission of biopsies of unusual lumps in the genital region (fresh biopsies for bacteriological examination and fixed biopsies for histomorphological assessment).

Radiation-induced changes in liver and kidney alkaline phosphatase and esterase of mice

Whole-body exposure of mice to 2 Gy gamma radiation results in an increase in the specific and total activities of esterase and alkaline phosphatase found in the supernatant of liver and kidney. This increase developed at 1 h, reached a maximum at 24 h, and then declined at 48 h after irradiation. The increase in the activity of these enzymes was not accompanied by an increase in protein content. Electrophoretic analysis on acrylamide gel confirmed the results obtained by the quantitative biochemical analysis. An increase in the level and/or number of bands was observed postirradiation.

Ovotransferrin (conalbumin) polymorphism and economic characters in the domestic fowl

1. The possible association between transferrin genotypes and the economic traits, age at maturity, egg number, egg weight and body weight at different ages, was studied in four successive hatches of chickens of the Light Sussex breed. 2. No regular correlation was found between transferrin genotypes and age at maturity. 3. The transferrin locus had no additive effect on the egg number and egg weight. 4. For body weight the transferrin locus had an additive effect, the TfB allele being associated with a body weight superior to that associated with the TfA allele. This influence on body weight was found to be significant at all ages.