Social Activities and Risk of Dementia in Community-Dwelling Older People: Gender-Specific Findings From a Prospective Cohort Study

OBJECTIVES

This study examines the gender-specific associations between a wide range of social activities and dementia risk.

METHODS

A prospective cohort study was conducted involving community-dwelling older Australians (≥70 years) without significant cognitive impairment at enrolment. During the first year of enrolment, we assessed 25 self-reported social activities covering various aspects, including support from relatives and friends, community participation, social interactions with surroundings, and loneliness. Dementia diagnosis followed DSM-IV criteria, adjudicated by an international expert panel. To estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for associations between social activities and dementia, we performed Cox proportional hazards models, adjusting for age, educational attainment, baseline global cognition, and depressive symptoms.

RESULTS

Among 9,936 participants who completed all social activity questionnaires (median [IQR] age: 73.4 [71.6-77.1] years; 47.4% men), dementia was diagnosed in 3.8% of men (n = 181/4,705) and 2.6% of women (n = 138/5,231) over a median 6.4 years (IQR: 5.3-7.6, range: 0.2-10.1) follow-up. Gender-specific relationships emerged: caregiving for a person with illness/disability in women (HR: 0.65, 95% CI: 0.42-0.99), and having ≥9 relatives feeling close to call for help in men (HR: 0.56, 95% CI: 0.33-0.96; reference <9 relatives) were associated with reduced dementia risk. Unexpectedly, in women, having ≥5 friends with whom they felt comfortable discussing private matters were associated with a greater dementia risk (HR: 1.69, 95% CI: 1.10-2.59; reference ≤2 friends). Imputed models further identified that babysitting/childminding was associated with lower dementia risk in men (HR: 0.75, 95% CI: 0.56-0.99). No other social activities showed significant associations with dementia.

DISCUSSION

This study provides evidence of social activities influencing dementia risk. Further investigations are required to uncover the mechanisms driving these observed relationships.

Does diet quality moderate the long-term effects of discrete but extreme PM2.5 exposure on respiratory symptoms? A study of the Hazelwood coalmine fire

In 2014, a fire at an open cut coalmine in regional Victoria, Australia burned for 6 weeks. Residents of the nearby town of Morwell were exposed to smoke, which included high levels of fine particulate matter (PM2.5). We investigated whether the long-term effects of PM2.5 on respiratory health were moderated by diet quality. A cross-sectional analysis was conducted of data collected 8.5 years after the mine fire from 282 residents of Morwell and 166 residents from the nearby unexposed town of Sale. Primary outcomes were respiratory symptoms. Exposure was coalmine fire-related PM2.5 and diet quality was assessed as Australian Recommended Food Score (ARFS) derived using the Australian Eating Survey (AES). The moderating effect of diet quality on respiratory outcomes associated with PM2.5 was assessed using logistic regression models, adjusting for potential confounders. Diet quality was poor in this sample, with 60% in the lowest category of overall diet quality. Overall diet quality and fruit and vegetable quality significantly attenuated the association between PM2.5 and prevalence of chronic cough and phlegm. Sauce/condiment intake was associated with a greater effect of PM2.5 on COPD prevalence. No other moderating effects were significant. The moderating effects of overall diet quality and vegetable and fruit intake aligned with a priori hypotheses, suggesting potential protective benefits. While more evidence is needed to confirm these findings, improving diets, especially fruit and vegetable intake, may provide some protection against the effects of smoke exposure from fire events.

Diagnostic accuracy of self-reported age-related macular degeneration in the ASPREE Longitudinal Study of Older Persons

BACKGROUND

The validity of findings from epidemiological studies using self-report of ophthalmic conditions depends on several factors. We assessed the diagnostic accuracy of self-reported age-related macular degeneration (AMD) among older Australians enroled in a primary prevention clinical trial and compared diagnostic accuracy between demographic subgroups.

METHODS

At baseline (2010-2015), Australian sub-study participants of the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) trial, underwent bilateral two-field, 45° non-mydriatic colour retinal photography. Beckman classification of any-stage AMD was used as the reference standard diagnosis. Participants were asked whether a doctor had ever diagnosed them with "macular degeneration" (the index test) via a paper-based questionnaire as part of the ASPREE Longitudinal Study of Older Persons (ALSOP) within the first year of enrolment.

RESULTS

In total, 4193 participants were included (aged 70-92 years, 50.8% female). Of those, 262 (6.3%) reported having AMD and 92 (2.2%) were unsure. Retinal grading detected 2592 (61.8%) with no AMD, 867 (20.7%) with early, 686 (16.4%) with intermediate and 48 (1.1%) with late AMD (n = 1601 with any-stage AMD, 38.2%). Self-reported AMD had 11.4% sensitivity (95% CI 9.9-13.1) and 96.9% specificity (95% CI 96.2-97.6) for any-stage AMD, with 69.8% and 63.9% positive and negative predictive values. Sensitivity was higher among participants with late-stage AMD (87.5%), older participants (26.8%), and those with poorer vision (41.0%).

CONCLUSIONS

Although most participants with late-stage AMD were aware of having AMD, the majority with early and intermediate AMD were not. Therefore, findings from studies that rely on disease self-report should be interpreted with caution.

The ASPREE Healthy Ageing Biobank: Methodology and participant characteristics

ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE), a placebo-controlled prevention trial of low dose aspirin, provided the opportunity to establish a biospecimen biobank from initially healthy persons aged 70+ years for future research. The ASPREE Healthy Ageing Biobank (ASPREE Biobank) collected, processed and stored blood and urine samples at -80degC or under nitrogen vapour at two timepoints, three years apart, from a willing subset of Australian ASPREE participants. Written informed consent included separate opt-in questions for biomarker and genetic testing. Fractionated blood and urine were aliquoted into multiple low-volume, barcoded cryotubes for frozen storage within 4 hours of collection. Specially designed and outfitted mobile laboratories provided opportunities for participation by people in regional and rural areas. Detailed, high quality demographic, physiological and clinical data were collected annually through the ASPREE trial. 12,219 participants contributed blood/urine at the first timepoint, 10,617 of these older adults provided 3-year follow-up samples, and an additional 1,712 provided saliva for DNA. The mean participant age was 74 years, 54% were female and 46% lived outside major cities. Despite geographical and logistical challenges, nearly 100% of blood/urine specimens were processed and frozen within 4 hours of collection into >1.4 million aliquots. After a median of 4.7 years, major clinical events among ASPREE Biobank participants included 332 with dementia, 613 with cardiovascular disease events, 1259 with cancer, 357 with major bleeds and 615 had died. The ASPREE Biobank houses and curates a large number of biospecimens collected prior to the clinical manifestations of major disease, and 3-year follow-up samples, all linked to high quality, extensive phenotypic information. This provides the opportunity to identify or validate diagnostic, prognostic and predictive biomarkers, and potentially study biological effectors, of ageing-related diseases or maintenance of older-age good health.

Daily low-dose aspirin and incident type 2 diabetes in community-dwelling healthy older adults: a post-hoc analysis of efficacy and safety in the ASPREE randomised placebo-controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Inflammation has been implicated in the pathogenesis of diabetes. This study investigated the randomised treatment effect of low-dose aspirin on incident type 2 diabetes and fasting plasma glucose (FPG) concentrations among older adults.

METHODS

ASPREE was a double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of daily oral low-dose aspirin. The study population included community-dwelling individuals aged 70 years or older (≥65 years for US minority ethnic groups) in the USA and Australia who were free of cardiovascular disease, independence-limiting physical disability, or dementia. For the post-hoc analysis, we excluded participants with diabetes at baseline or with incomplete or missing incident diabetes data during follow-up. Participants were randomly assigned 1:1 to oral 100 mg daily enteric-coated aspirin or placebo. Incident diabetes was defined as self-reported diabetes, commencement of glucose-lowering medication, or a FPG concentration of 7·0 mmol/L or more assessed at annual follow-up visits among participants with no diabetes at baseline. We used Cox proportional hazards models and mixed-model repeated measures to assess the effect of aspirin on incident diabetes and FPG concentrations in the intention-to-treat population. We assessed major bleeding in participants who had taken at least one dose of study medication.

FINDINGS

Between March 10, 2010, and Dec 24, 2014, a total of 16 209 participants were included (8086 [49·9%] randomly assigned to aspirin and 8123 [50·1%] randomly assigned to placebo). During a median follow-up of 4·7 years (IQR 3·6-5·7), 995 (in 6·1% individuals) incident cases of type 2 diabetes were recorded (459 in the aspirin group and 536 in the placebo group). Compared with placebo, the aspirin group had a 15% reduction in risk of incident diabetes (hazard ratio 0·85 [95% CI 0·75 to 0·97]; p=0·013) and a slower rate of increase in FPG concentration at year 5 (between-group difference estimate -0·048 mmol/L [95% CI -0·079 to -0·018]; p=0·0017). Major bleeding (major gastrointestinal bleeding, intracranial bleeding, and clinically significant bleeding at other sites) occurred in 510 (3·2%) of 16 104 participants (300 [3·7%] in the aspirin group and 210 [2·6%] in the placebo group). Compared with placebo, the aspirin group had a 44% increase in risk of major bleeding (hazard ratio 1·44 [95% CI 1·21 to 1·72]; p<0·0001).

INTERPRETATION

Aspirin treatment reduced the incidence of type 2 diabetes and slowed the increase in FPG concentration but increased major bleeding among community-dwelling older adults. Given the increasing prevalence of type 2 diabetes among older adults, the potential for anti-inflammatory agents such as aspirin to prevent type 2 diabetes or improve glucose levels warrants further study with a comprehensive assessment of all potential safety events of interest.

FUNDING

US National Institute on Aging, US National Cancer Institute, National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia, Monash University, and the Victorian Cancer Agency.

Long-term occupational exposures on disability-free survival and mortality in older adults

BACKGROUND

The impact of long-term occupational exposures on health in older adults is increasingly relevant as populations age. To date, no studies have reported their impact on survival free of disability in older adults.

AIMS

We aimed to investigate the association between long-term occupational exposure and disability-free survival (DFS), all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality in initially healthy older adults.

METHODS

We analysed data from 12 215 healthy participants in the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) study whose mean age was 75 years. Their work history was collated with the 'ALOHA-plus JEM' (Job Exposure Matrix) to assign occupational exposures. The primary endpoint, DFS, was a composite measure of death, dementia or persistent physical disability. The secondary endpoint, mortality, was classified according to the underlying cause. Cox proportional hazard models were used to calculate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals, adjusted for confounders.

RESULTS

A total of 1835 individuals reached the DFS endpoint during the median 4.7 years follow-up period. Both ever-high and cumulative exposure to all dusts and all pesticides during a person's working years were associated with reduced DFS. Compared to no exposure, men with high exposure to dusts and pesticides had a reduced DFS. Neither of these exposures were significantly associated with all-cause mortality. Men with high occupational exposure to solvents and women exposed to dusts experienced higher all-cause and cancer-related mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Long-term occupational exposure to all dusts and pesticides was associated with a reduced DFS and increased mortality in community-dwelling healthy older adults.

Occupational characteristics and disability-free survival after retirement age: an exploratory analysis from the ASPREE study

Background

Certain occupational characteristics have been linked with poor health and reduced longevity. However, the association between occupational characteristics and survival free of disability in a post-retirement age group has not been investigated.

Methods

We investigated outcomes in 12,215 healthy older Australian adults in the Aspirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) and ASPREE Longitudinal Study of Older Persons (ALSOP) sub-study. The ISCO-88 major occupational groups, settings, and activity levels were assigned based on free-text job descriptions. The Finnish Job Exposure Matrix was used to assign occupational characteristics to the three longest-held jobs. The primary endpoint, disability-free survival, was defined as a composite measure of death, dementia, or persistent physical disability. The endpoint of all-cause mortality was analyzed separately. Because of multiple exploratory analyses, only those associations with a two-sided value of p less than 0.005 were considered statistically significant. Cox proportional hazard models were used to calculate adjusted hazard ratios.

Results

Having worked in an 'elementary' occupation was associated with a reduction in disability-free survival. A specific impact on disability-free survival was observed among those whose work had involved high accident risk and adverse social climate. No significant relationship was identified with those previously exposed to sedentary work, vigorous physical activity, work primarily outdoors, or a range of other occupational characteristics. All-cause mortality was not increased among any of the occupational groups.

Conclusion

This exploratory study found a reduction in disability-free survival among people who worked in 'elementary' occupations, with specific risks associated with occupations involving high accident risks and adverse social climate.

Self-reported oral health status, edentulism and all-cause mortality risk in 12 809 Australian older adults: a prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the association between oral health status and all-cause mortality in older adults using prospective cohort study design.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

In total, 12 809 adults aged ≥70 years (54.3% females) were participants of the ASPREE Longitudinal Study of Older Persons (ALSOP).

METHODS

Participants self-reported the presence of natural teeth and oral health status. The association of self-reported oral health, edentulism and the integrative measure of the two with all-cause mortality were explored using the Cox-regression models adjusted for age, gender, socio-economic status, health-related behaviours, weight status, aspirin and polypharmacy. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were reported.

RESULTS

In total, 22.2% of participants reported edentulism and 13.8% had fair/poor oral health. After adjustment for confounders, risk of all-cause mortality was higher among those with edentulism (vs. no edentulism) HR (95% CI) 1.43 (1.18, 1.73); and those with edentulism and reporting poor/fair oral health HR (95% CI) 1.69 (1.02, 2.82), or with no edentulism but reporting poor/fair oral health HR (95% CI) 1.46 (1.19-1.80) vs. no edentulism and reporting good/very good/excellent oral health. No association was observed between self-reported oral health alone and all-cause mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

The risk of all-cause mortality was 69% higher among older adults reporting both edentulism and poor/fair oral health compared with those with teeth and more favourable self-reported oral health. © 2023 Australian Dental Association.

The association of allopurinol with persistent physical disability and frailty in a large community based older cohort

BACKGROUND

The protective effects of allopurinol on physical function in older adults are not well understood, despite its potential to improve functional gains and reduce sarcopenia. This study aims to determine the association between allopurinol, persistent physical disability, and frailty in older gout patients.

METHODS

This analysis used data from a randomized trial in an older cohort, ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE). ASPREE recruited 19,114 participants aged ≥65 years without prior cardiovascular events, dementia, or independence-limiting physical disability at trial enrolment. This analysis examined the association of baseline and time-varying allopurinol use with persistent physical disability and new-onset frailty in participants with gout at baseline (self-report or use of any anti-gout medications). Frailty was measured using the Fried frailty phenotype (score ≥3/5) and a deficit accumulation frailty index (FI) (score >0.21/1.0). Multivariable Cox proportional-hazards models were used for main analyses.

RESULTS

This analysis included 1155 gout participants, with 630 taking allopurinol at baseline and 525 not. During a median follow-up of 5.7 years, 113 new allopurinol users were identified. Compared with nonusers, baseline allopurinol use was associated with a significant risk reduction of persistent physical disability (Adjusted HR 0.46, 95% CI 0.23-0.92, p = 0.03). The strength of the association was modestly attenuated in the time-varying analysis (Adjusted HR 0.56, 0.29-1.08, p = 0.08). No significant associations with frailty measures were observed for either baseline allopurinol use (Fried frailty: Adjusted HR 0.83, 0.62-1.12; FI: Adjusted HR 0.96, 0.74-1.24) or time-varying allopurinol use (Fried frailty: Adjusted HR 0.92, 0.69-1.24; FI: Adjusted HR 1.02, 0.78-1.33).

CONCLUSIONS

Allopurinol use in older adults with gout is associated with a reduced risk of persistent physical disability but not associated with risk of frailty.

Dietary supplement and complementary and alternative medicine use among older adults in Australia and the United States

BACKGROUND

Dietary supplement and complementary and alternative medication (CAM) use can contribute to drug interactions, polypharmacy, nonadherence with prescription medications, and healthcare expenses, whereas evidence supporting benefits of using these products is sparse. There is a lack of current published literature describing the patterns or predictors of their use in community-dwelling older adults.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We performed a cross-sectional analysis of community-dwelling adults from Australia and the US, aged 70 years and older (65 years for US minorities), enrolled in the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) study. At study enrollment, eligible participants were required to be without concurrent 5-year life-limiting illness and free of documented evidence of cardiovascular disease, dementia, or significant physical disability. During the final study visit, a questionnaire was administered to collect information about supplement/CAM use. Data from 15,729 participants who completed this questionnaire between January 2017 and January 2018 were analyzed. Descriptive statistics were used to report the prevalence and types of products used. Factors associated with use were determined using multivariate regression.

RESULTS

Mean age of respondents was 79.6 years; 56.4% were female, 88.8% were from Australia, 56.5% reported 12 years of education or less, and 98.7% were living at home. Two-thirds (66.2%) of participants reported use of one or more supplement/CAM in the previous month. Products most commonly used included vitamin D (33.8% of participants), fish oil (22.7%), calcium (20.6%), glucosamine (14.8%), and multivitamin (12.9%). Female sex, US residency, higher education, polypharmacy (prescription medications), and frailty (in women) were significantly associated with higher use of supplements/CAMs.

CONCLUSIONS

Dietary supplement and CAM use is common among community-dwelling older adults in the United States and Australia. Given the high prevalence of use, collaboration between healthcare providers and older adult patients is important to insure safe and optimal use of these products.

Socio-Demographic, Lifestyle, and Clinical Characteristics of Early and Later Weight Status in Older Adults: Secondary Analysis of the ASPREE Trial and ALSOP Sub-Study

OBJECTIVE

To identify the socio-demographic, lifestyle, and clinical characteristics associated with self-reported weight status in early (age 18 years) and late (age ≥ 70 years) adulthood.

METHODS

The number of participants was 11,288, who were relatively healthy community-dwelling Australian adults aged ≥70 years (mean age 75.1 ± 4.2 years) in the Aspirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) Longitudinal Study of Older Persons (ALSOP) sub-study. Self-reported weight at the study baseline (age ≥ 70 years) and recalled weight at age 18 years were collected. Height measured at baseline was used to calculate the BMI at both time points. Individuals were categorised into one of five 'lifetime' weight status groups: healthy weight (at both age 18 year and ≥70 years), overweight (at either or both times), non-obese (age 18 year) to obesity (age ≥70 years), obesity (age 18 years) to non-obese (age ≥ 70 years), and early and later life obesity (at age 18 years and ≥70 years).

RESULTS

Participants who experienced obesity in early and/or late adulthood were at a higher risk of adverse clinical characteristics. Obesity in late adulthood (regardless of early adulthood weight status) was associated with high proportions of hypertension, diabetes, and dyslipidaemia, whereas obesity in early adulthood (regardless of late adulthood weight status) was associated with lower cognitive scores (on all four measures).

DISCUSSION/CONCLUSION

Healthy or overweight weight status in early and later adulthood was associated with more favourable socioeconomic, lifestyle, and clinical measures. Obesity in early adulthood was associated with lower cognitive function in later adulthood, whereas obesity in later adulthood was associated with hypertension, diabetes, and dyslipidaemia.

Self-rated eyesight among healthy older Australians: Baseline results of the ASPREE Longitudinal Study of Older Persons

BACKGROUND

We aimed to describe the self-reported level of eyesight amongst a cohort of relatively healthy older Australian adults, and to investigate associations between poorer self-rated eyesight and demographic, health, and functional characteristics METHODS: The ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) Longitudinal Study of Older Persons (ALSOP) study was embedded in a multisite trial which recruited independently living Australians from general practices (2010-2014). Self-rated eyesight was recorded on a paper-based questionnaire as Excellent, Good, Fair, Poor, Very poor, or Completely blind at the baseline study wave RESULTS: Data from 14 592 participants (aged 70-95 years, 54.61% female) were included in this cross-sectional analysis. Eighty percent of participants reported excellent or good eyesight (n = 11 677). People with complete blindness were precluded from enrolling but 299 participants (2.0%) reported poor or very poor eyesight, and 2616 rated their eyesight as fair (17.9%). Lower levels of eyesight were associated with being older, female, fewer years of formal education, a primary language other than English, smoking, and self-reported macular degeneration, glaucoma, retinopathy, cataracts, and hearing problems (each p ≤ 0.021). People with lower levels of eyesight had a higher number of falls, frailty characteristics, and depressive symptoms, and lower mental and physical health functioning scores (each p < 0.001) CONCLUSIONS: Whilst most of these healthy older Australians reported good or excellent eyesight, a notable minority reported poor or very poor eyesight, and this was associated with a range of poorer health measures. These findings support the need for additional resources to prevent vision loss and associated sequelae.

The relationship between social isolation, social support, and loneliness with cardiovascular disease and shared risk factors: A narrative review

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the greatest contributor to global morbidity and mortality. Poor social health plays a critical role in CVD incidence. Additionally, the relationship between social health and CVD may be mediated through CVD risk factors. However, the underlying mechanisms between social health and CVD are poorly understood. Certain social health constructs (social isolation, low social support and loneliness) have complicated the characterisation of a causal relationship between social health and CVD.

AIM

To provide an overview of the relationship between social health and CVD (and its shared risk factors).

METHOD

In this narrative review, we examined published literature on the relationship between three social health constructs (social isolation, social support, and loneliness) and CVD. Evidence was synthesised in a narrative format, focusing on the potential ways in which social health affects CVD, including shared risk factors.

RESULTS

The current literature highlights an established relationship between social health and CVD with a likelihood for bi-directionality. However, there is speculation and varied evidence regarding how these relationships may be mediated through CVD risk factors.

CONCLUSIONS

Social health can be considered an established risk factor for CVD. However, the potential bi-directional pathways of social health with CVD risk factors are less established. Further research is needed to understand whether targeting certain constructs of social health may directly improve the management of CVD risk factors. Given the health and economic burdens of poor social health and CVD, improvements to addressing or preventing these interrelated health conditions would have societal benefits.

Self-Reported Early and Later Life Weight and the Risk of All-Cause Mortality in Older Adults

OBJECTIVES

The extent to which body weight in early adulthood is associated with late-life mortality risk is unclear. This study aimed to determine the association between body mass index (BMI) in early adulthood (at 18 years of age) and older age (70 years and over), and the risk of mortality in later life.

DESIGN

Secondary analysis of the ASPREE Longitudinal Study of Older Persons (ALSOP).

SETTING, PARTICIPANTS

Data were from 14,853 relatively healthy community-dwelling Australians aged ≥ 70 years when enrolled in the study.

MEASUREMENTS

Self-reported weight at age ≥ 70 years and recalled weight at age 18 years were collected at ALSOP study baseline. Height was measured with a stadiometer and was used for calculation of BMI at both timepoints. BMI at each timepoint was defined as: underweight, normal weight, overweight and obese. Individuals were categorised into one of five 'lifetime' BMI groups: normal weight (BMI between 18.5 and 24.9 at both times), overweight (25.0-29.9 at either or both times), obesity to non-obese (≥30.0 at age 18 and <30.0 ≥ 70 years), non-obese to obesity (<30.0 at age 18 and ≥30.0 at age ≥ 70 years), and early and later life obesity (≥30.0 at both times).

RESULTS

During a median 4.7 years follow-up, 715 deaths occurred. Obesity at 18 years, but not in older age (p=0.44), was significantly associated with the risk of mortality in later life, even after accounting for current health status (HR: 2.35, 95% CI: 1.53-3.58, p<0.001). Compared with participants with normal BMI at both time points, being obese at both time points was associated with increased mortality risk (HR=1.99, 95% CI: 1.04-3.81, p=0.03), and the risk was even greater for individuals who were obese at 18 years but were no longer obese in older age (HR=2.92, 95% CI: 1.65-5.16, p<0.001), in fully adjusted models. Participants who were normal weight at 18 years and were obese in later life, did not have an increased mortality risk (p=0.78).

CONCLUSIONS

Obesity in early adulthood, and obesity in both early and later life, were associated with increased mortality risk in later life. This highlights the importance of preventing obesity in early adulthood and maintaining a normal weight over an adult lifespan.

Correlates of Meal Skipping in Community Dwelling Older Adults: A Cross-Sectional Study

In this cross-sectional analysis of 10,071 community dwelling adults aged ≥70 years, we examined factors associated with meal skipping (self-reported) using multivariable logistic regression. Prevalence of meal skipping in this study was 19.5%. The adjusted odds (aOR [95%CI]) of meal skipping were lower in those 85+ years (vs. 70-74.9 years, 0.56 [0.45-0.70]), and in those in regional areas (vs. urban area, 0.81 [0.72-0.92]). Higher odds of meal skipping were observed for those living alone (vs. living with someone, 1.84 [1.64-2.05]), current smokers (vs. non-smokers, 2.07 [1.54-2.80]), consumers of high amounts of alcohol (vs. abstainers 1.93 [1.35-2.75]), those with poor oral health (vs. excellent oral health, 1.71 [1.07 -2.73]) diabetes (vs. not 1.26 [1.06-1.50]), or frailty (vs. not, 1.63 [1.09-2.43]). This study identified socio-demographic, social, behavioural and biomedical correlates of meal skipping in later life, which may assist in targeting interventions to address meal skipping.

The Association of Weight Loss, Weight Status, and Abdominal Obesity with All-Cause Mortality in Older Adults

OBJECTIVES

The objectives of this study were to examine whether weight loss, weight status (based on body mass index [BMI] categories), and abdominal obesity (based on waist circumference [WC]) were associated with a 17-year mortality risk in community-dwelling older adults.

METHODS

Participants were 2,017 community-dwelling adults aged 65 years or above in the longitudinal Enquête de Santé Psychologique-Risques, Incidence et Traitement study. Self-reported weight loss was collected at baseline during face-to-face interviews. Bodyweight (kg), height (m), and WC (cm) were independently measured at the baseline. BMI was categorized as follows: underweight (BMI <18.5 kg/m2), normal weight (18.5-24.9 kg/m2), overweight (25-29.9 kg/m2), and obese (≥30 kg/m2). Abdominal obesity was defined by a WC of ≥102 cm in men and ≥88 cm in women. Adjusted Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine associations of weight loss, weight status, and abdominal obesity with all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

Over 17 years of follow-up (median 15.5 years), 812 participants died. Abdominal obesity compared to nonabdominal obesity was associated with a 49% increased mortality risk (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.22-1.83). However, being overweight (but not obese) was associated with a 20% decreased risk (95% CI: 0.66-0.97) compared to a normal BMI. Gender did not affect these associations. In the whole cohort, self-reported weight loss at baseline was not associated with an increased mortality risk after adjusting for health and lifestyle factors. However, in men, a baseline self-reported recent weight loss of >3 kg was associated with a 52% increase in mortality risk (95% CI: 1.05-2.18) in a fully adjusted model.

CONCLUSION

In community-dwelling adults aged ≥65 years, abdominal obesity was strongly associated with increased mortality risk. Being overweight appeared, however, to be protective against mortality. Modest self-reported weight loss was not associated with all-cause mortality in community-dwelling older adults after adjusting for health and lifestyle factors. However, men reporting recent weight loss of more than 3 kg may be at increased risk. The findings of this study support the use of WC, rather than BMI, as a predictor of mortality risk in older adults.

Quality of life and associations with health-related behaviours among older adults with increased cardiovascular risk

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

A better understanding of the relationship between cardiovascular disease risk factors and quality of life (QoL) in older age is needed to inform development of risk reduction strategies. This cross-sectional study investigated the association of QoL with health-related behaviours in older adults at risk of heart failure.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Older adults (N = 328) at risk of heart failure residing in Melbourne, Australia, provided data on QoL and health-related behaviours including physical activity, diet, smoking and alcohol consumption. Multiple linear regression modelling was used to examine associations between health-related behaviours, QoL and its constituent domains. After adjustment for age, gender, body mass index and comorbidities, current smoking was found to have a negative association with the mental component score (MCS) of QoL (β = -0.174, p ≤ 0.01), with a positive association seen between MCS and physical activity (β = 0.130, p = 0.01). Current alcohol use had a positive association with the physical component score (PCS) (β = 0.120, p = 0.02) and saturated fat intake consumption had a negative association with the physical functioning domain of QoL (β = -0.105, p = 0.03) but was not associated with either PCS or MCS.

CONCLUSION

Engagement of older adults at increased cardiovascular risk with behavioural risk factor modification using QoL as a driver of change may offer new opportunities to promote healthy ageing. Development of such strategies should consider that for some behaviours which are cardiovascular risk factors (alcohol intake, in particular), the positive association to QoL is complicated and needs further deliberation.

Lifetime impact of being underweight or overweight/obese during childhood in Vietnam

BACKGROUND

There is limited evidence about lifetime burden of child malnutrition. This study aimed to estimate the lifetime impact of being underweight or overweight/obese during childhood in Vietnam.

METHODS

We developed a life table model in combination with a Markov model for Vietnamese children aged 5-19 years and simulated until they reached 75 years of age or died using published data. The starting year was 2019 and the model estimated number of deaths, years of life lived and quality-adjusted life years (QALY) with an annual discount rate of 3%. We performed scenario, one-way, and probabilistic sensitivity analyses to assess the impact of uncertainties in input parameters.

RESULTS

The model estimated 9.68 million deaths (6.44 million men and 3.24 million women), 622 million years of life lived (317 million men and 305 million women), and 601 million QALYs (308 million men and 293 million women). Scenario analyses showed that the reduction in either underweight or overweight/obesity alone, and reduction in both underweight and overweight/obesity resulted in fewer deaths, more years of life lived and more QALYs gained. In the scenario where everyone was a healthy weight, the model estimated 577,267 fewer deaths (6.0% less), 2 million more years of life lived (0.3% more), and 3 million QALYs gained (0.6% more) over base-case results which represents current situation in Vietnam.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that addressing underweight and overweight/obesity will contribute to reducing deaths and increasing years of life lived and QALYs. Policies and interventions in alignment with Sustainable Development Goals to address underweight and overweight/obesity are necessary to achieve health for all.

Trends in television viewing and overweight /obesity among Nepalese women: Findings from 2006, 2011 and 2016 Nepal Demographic and Health Surveys

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Associations between overweight/obesity and television (TV) viewing have been identified in high-income countries, but little evidence is available from low- and middle-income countries. This study examined the trends and correlates of television viewing and overweight/obesity among Nepalese women between 2006 and 2016.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We analysed the data from 22,161 women aged 15-49 years who took part in Nepal Demographic Health Surveys 2006 (n = 10,115), 2011 (n = 5,881) or 2016 (n = 6,165). Trained staff collected data on TV viewing and sociodemographic attributes from a face-to-face survey while height and weight were measured objectively to determine body mass index. Around 38% of the study participants watched TV at least once a week in 2006, which increased to 49% in 2011 and 46% in 2016. The prevalence of overweight and obesity increased from 8% in 2006 to 14.6% in 2011 and 19.8% in 2016. Compared to those who did not watch TV at all, those watching it at least once a week were at 1.54 (95% CI: 1.02-2.33), 1.79 (95% CI: 1.23-2.60) and 1.46 (95% CI: 1.13-1.88) times higher odds of being overweight/obese in 2006, 2011 and 2016 respectively.

CONCLUSION

The prevalence of TV viewing rose among women in Nepal between 2006 and 2016 and was associated with overweight/obesity, which also increased dramatically over this period. Future studies examining the use of multiple screen devices, daily usage duration and content viewed are recommended to understand better the health impacts of transitions to more sedentary living in Nepal and similar settings.

Social isolation, social support and loneliness as predictors of cardiovascular disease incidence and mortality

BACKGROUND

Poor social health is associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Recent research suggests that different social health domains should be considered separately as the implications for health and possible interventions may differ.

AIM

To assess social isolation, low social support and loneliness as predictors of CVD.

METHODS

Secondary analysis of 11,486 community-dwelling, Australians, aged 70 years and over, free of CVD, dementia, or significant physical disability, from the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) trial. Social isolation, social support (Revised Lubben Social Network Scale), and loneliness were assessed as predictors of CVD using Cox proportional-hazard regression. CVD events included fatal CVD, heart failure hospitalization, myocardial infarction and stroke. Analyses were adjusted for established CVD risk factors.

RESULTS

Individuals with poor social health were 42 % more likely to develop CVD (p = 0.01) and twice as likely to die from CVD (p = 0.02) over a median 4.5 years follow-up. Interaction effects indicated that poorer social health more strongly predicted CVD in smokers (HR 4.83, p = 0.001, p-interaction = 0.01), major city dwellers (HR 1.94, p < 0.001, p-interaction=0.03), and younger older adults (70-75 years; HR 2.12, p < 0.001, p-interaction = 0.01). Social isolation (HR 1.66, p = 0.04) and low social support (HR 2.05, p = 0.002), but not loneliness (HR 1.4, p = 0.1), predicted incident CVD. All measures of poor social health predicted ischemic stroke (HR 1.73 to 3.16).

CONCLUSIONS

Among healthy older adults, social isolation and low social support may be more important than loneliness as cardiovascular risk factors. Social health domains should be considered in future CVD risk prediction models.

Anticholinergic medication burden and cognitive function in participants of the ASPREE study

STUDY OBJECTIVE

What is the association between anticholinergic burden and specific domains of cognitive function in older adults who are initially without major cognitive impairment?

DESIGN

Post-hoc analysis of longitudinal observational data from the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) study.

PATIENTS

19,114 participants from Australia and the United States aged 70 years and older (65 years and older for US minorities) were recruited and followed for a median of 4.7 years. At enrollment, participants were free of known cardiovascular disease, major physical disability, or dementia.

MEASUREMENTS

Cognitive assessments administered at baseline and biennially at follow-up visits included the Modified Mini-Mental State examination (3MS), Hopkins Verbal Learning Test-Revised (HVLT-R) delayed recall, Controlled Oral Word Association Test (COWAT), and Symbol Digit Modalities Test (SDMT). Anticholinergic burden was calculated at baseline using the Anticholinergic Cognitive Burden (ACB) scale and grouped as scores of 0 (no burden), 1-2 (low to moderate), or 3+ (high).

MAIN RESULTS

Linear mixed effects models were used to assess the relationship between ACB score and cognition over time. After adjusting for sex, age, education, minority status, smoking status, hypertension, diabetes, depression, chronic kidney disease, country, and frailty, participants with a high ACB score had worse performance over time for 3MS (Adjusted [Adj] B=-0.092, P=0.034), HVLT-R delayed recall (Adj B=-0.104, P<0.001), COWAT (Adj B=-0.151, P<0.001), and SDMT (Adj B=-0.129, P=0.026), than participants with an ACB score of 0. A low to moderate ACB score was also associated with worse performance over time for HVLT-R delayed recall (Adj B=-0.037, P=0.007) and COWAT (Adj B=-0.065, P=0.003), compared to those with no ACB.

CONCLUSIONS

Anticholinergic burden predicts worse cognitive function over time in initially dementia-free older adults, particularly for executive function (COWAT) and episodic memory (HVLT-R).

The Impact of Diabetes on Productivity in India

OBJECTIVE

Diabetes increases the risk of premature mortality and considerably impacts on work productivity. We sought to examine the impact of diabetes in India, in terms of excess premature mortality, years of life lost (YLL), productivity-adjusted life years (PALYs) lost, and its associated economic impact.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

A life table model was constructed to examine the productivity of the Indian working-age population currently aged 20-59 years with diabetes, followed until death or retirement age (60 years). The same cohort was resimulated, hypothetically assuming that they did not have diabetes. The total difference between the two cohorts, in terms of excess deaths, YLL and PALYs lost reflected the impact of diabetes. Data regarding the prevalence of diabetes, mortality, labor force dropouts, and productivity loss attributable to diabetes were derived from published sources.

RESULTS

In 2017, an estimated 54.4 million (7.6%) people of working-age in India had diabetes. With simulated follow-up until death or retirement age, diabetes was predicted to cause 8.5 million excess deaths (62.7% of all deaths), 42.7 million YLL (7.4% of total estimated years of life lived), and 89.0 million PALYs lost (23.3% of total estimated PALYs), equating to an estimated Indian rupee 176.6 trillion (U.S. dollars 2.6 trillion; purchasing power parity 9.8 trillion) in lost gross domestic product.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study demonstrates the impact of diabetes on productivity loss and highlights the importance of health strategies aimed at the prevention of diabetes.

Risk factors for asymptomatic echocardiographic abnormalities that predict symptomatic heart failure

Aims

Risk factors for asymptomatic echocardiographic abnormalities that predict symptomatic heart failure (HF) may provide insight into early mechanisms of HF pathogenesis. We examined risk factors associated with asymptomatic echocardiographic structural, systolic, and diastolic abnormalities, separately and in combination, and interactions between risk factors, in the prospective community‐based SCReening Evaluation of the Evolution of New HF (SCREEN‐HF) Study cohort of 3190 participants at increased risk of cardiovascular disease.

Methods and results

Inclusion criteria were age ≥ 60 years with one or more of hypertension, diabetes, ischaemic heart disease, valvular heart disease, abnormal heart rhythm, cerebrovascular disease, or renal impairment. Exclusion criteria were known HF, ejection fraction < 50%, or >mild valve abnormality. Structural, systolic, and diastolic echocardiographic abnormalities were defined according to the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study criteria, and risk factors for asymptomatic structural, systolic, and diastolic abnormalities were identified using logistic regression analysis. In multivariable analysis, increased body mass index (BMI), non‐steroidal anti‐inflammatory drug therapy, and alcohol intake were risk factors for isolated structural abnormality, whereas male gender, increased heart rate, atrial fibrillation (AF), angiotensin‐converting enzyme inhibitor therapy, and obstructive sleep apnoea were associated with a lower risk. Moreover, male gender, smoking, increased systolic blood pressure, and physical inactivity were risk factors for isolated systolic abnormality, whereas increased pulse pressure and antihypertensive therapy were associated with a lower risk. Furthermore, increased age, blood pressure, amino‐terminal pro‐B‐type natriuretic peptide level, and warfarin therapy (associated with AF) were risk factors for isolated diastolic abnormality, whereas increased heart rate and triglyceride level (associated with BMI) were associated with a lower risk. The association of increased heart rate with lower risk of structural and diastolic abnormalities was independent of β‐blocker therapy. Interactions between risk factors differed for structural, systolic, and diastolic abnormalities.

Conclusions

The different risk factors for asymptomatic structural, systolic, and diastolic abnormalities that predict symptomatic HF, and the interactions between risk factors, illustrate how these structural, systolic, and diastolic abnormalities represent unique trajectories that lead to symptomatic HF. Improved understanding of these trajectories may assist in the design of HF prevention strategies.

Social isolation, social support, loneliness and cardiovascular disease risk factors: A cross-sectional study among older adults

BACKGROUND

Social health reflects one's ability to form interpersonal relationships. Poor social health is a risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD), however an in-depth exploration of the link through CVD risk factors is lacking.

AIM

To examine the relationship between social health (social isolation, social support, loneliness) and CVD risk factors among healthy older women and men.

METHODS

Data were from 11,498 healthy community-dwelling Australians aged ≥70 years from the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) trial and the ASPREE Longitudinal Study of Older Persons sub-study. Ten-year CVD risk was estimated using the Atherosclerotic CVD Risk Scale (ASCVDRS) and the Framingham Risk Score (FRS).

RESULTS

Physical inactivity and experiencing depressive symptoms were the only CVD risk factors that consistently differed by all three social health constructs. Loneliness was associated with greater ASCVDRS (women: β = 0.01, p < 0.05; men: β = 0.03, p < 0.001), social isolation with greater FRS (women: β = 0.02, p < 0.01; men: β = 0.03, p < 0.01) and the social health composite of being lonely (regardless of social isolation and/or social support status) with greater ASCVDRS (women: β = 0.01, p = 0.02; men: β = 0.03, p < 0.001). Among men, loneliness was also associated with greater FRS (β = 0.03, p < 0.001) and social support with greater ASCVDRS (β = 0.02, p = 0.01). Men were more socially isolated, less socially supported and less lonely than women.

CONCLUSION

Social isolation, social support and loneliness displayed diverse relationships with CVD risk factors and risk scores, emphasising the importance of distinguishing between these constructs. These findings inform on potential avenues to manage poor social health and CVD risk among older adults.

Socio-ecological influences of leisure-time physical activity among Nepalese adults: a qualitative study

Background

With economic and social changes, participation in occupational and transport-related physical activity is declining among Nepalese adults, highlighting the growing importance of leisure-time physical activity. However, limited information is available to guide public health policies and interventions to promote leisure-time physical activity in Nepal. This study aimed to qualitatively explore the socioecological influences of participation in leisure-time physical activity among Nepalese adults aged 40 years and above.

Methods

A total of 51 adults (30 females and 21 males) participated in one of the nine focus groups conducted in Kathmandu, Nepal. A semi-structured guide based on the social-ecological model of physical activity was used to facilitate these focus groups. Data were analysed using a reflexive thematic analysis approach in NVivo 12.

Results

Participation in leisure-time physical activity was minimal and leisure time was mostly spent resting, socialising, or engaging in sedentary activities such as watching television. Walking was the most common form of leisure-time physical activity, and men reported being more active than women. Individual-level barriers included lack of knowledge, lack of skill, lack of motivation, considering oneself as sufficiently active and engagement in sedentary screen activities. Family and household responsibilities, lack of support and fear of being judged constituted the interpersonal barriers while environmental barriers included an absence of a supportive social norm, lack of open spaces, weather conditions and perceived lack of safety. Health benefits, prioritising physical activity, social support, provision of group-based activities and age-appropriate public exercise facilities were identified as major facilitators.

Conclusion

Critical issues that need to be addressed to increase leisure-time physical activity among Nepalese adults include traditional gender roles, family and social support, and social norms. Modifications of the built environment, such as public exercise facilities, offer further opportunities and will require coordination beyond the health sector.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-021-11484-3.

Evaluation of the Pain Impact Index for Community-Dwelling Older Adults Through the Application of Rasch Modelling

OBJECTIVE

Evaluate the Pain Impact Index, a simple, brief, easy-to-use, and novel tool to assess the impact of chronic pain in community-dwelling older adults.

METHODS

A Rasch modelling analysis was undertaken in Stata using a partial credit model suited to the Likert-type items that comprised the Index. The Index was evaluated for ordering of category thresholds, unidimensionality, overall fit to the Rasch model, measurement bias (Differential Item Functioning, DIF), targeting, and construct validity.

RESULTS

The four-item Pain Impact Index was self-completed by 6454 community-dwelling Australians who were aged at least 70 years and experienced pain on most days. Two items showed evidence of threshold disordering, and this was resolved by collapsing response categories (from 5 to 3) for all items. The rescored Index conformed to the unidimensionality assumption and had satisfactory fit with the Rasch model (analyses conducted on a reduced sample size to mitigate the potential for overpowering: n = 377, P > 0.0125, power > 77%). When considering uniform DIF, the most frequent sources of measurement bias were age, knee pain, and upper back pain. When considering nonuniform DIF, the most frequent source of measurement bias was knee pain. The Index had good ability to differentiate between respondents with different levels of pain impact and had highest measurement precision for respondents located around the average level of pain impact in the study sample. Both convergent and discriminant validity of the Index were supported.

CONCLUSION

The Pain Impact Index showed evidence of unidimensionality, was able to successfully differentiate between levels of pain impact, and had good evidence of construct validity.

Estimating the Productivity Impact of Acute Myeloid Leukemia in Australia Between 2020 and 2029, Using a Novel Work Utility Measure: The Productivity-Adjusted Life Year (PALY)

PURPOSE

Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is a rare hematologic malignancy accounting for 0.8% of new cancer diagnoses in Australia. High mortality and morbidity affect work productivity through workforce dropout and premature death. This study sought to estimate the productivity loss attributable to AML in the Australian population over 10 years and to estimate the costs of this productivity loss. Productivity was measured using productivity-adjusted life years (PALYs), a similar concept to quality-adjusted life years, but adjusts for the productivity loss attributable to disease, rather than impaired health.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Dynamic life tables modeled the Australian working population (age 15-65 years) between 2020 and 2029. The model population had two cohorts: those with and without AML. Differences in life years, PALYs, and costs represented the health and productivity impact of AML. Secondary analyses evaluated the impact of different scenarios.

RESULTS

Over the next 10 years, there will be 7,600 years of life lost and 7,337 PALYs lost because of AML, amounting to Australian dollars (AU$) 1.43 billion in lost gross domestic product ($971 million in US dollars). Secondary analyses highlight potential savings of approximately AU$52 million if survival rates were improved by 20% and almost AU$118 million in savings if the return-to-work rates increased by 20% on the current estimates.

CONCLUSION

Our study demonstrates that even in low-incidence cancer, high mortality and morbidity translate to profound impacts on years of life, productivity, and the broader economy. Better treatment strategies are likely to result in significant economic gains. This highlights the value of investing in research for improved therapies.

The association of weight change and all-cause mortality in older adults: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

there may be age-related differences in the impact of weight change on health. This study systematically reviewed the evidence on the relationship between weight change and all-cause mortality in adults aged 65 years and older.

METHODS

MEDLINE, EMBASE and CINAHL were searched from inception to 11 June 2020, PROSPERO CRD 42019142268. We included observational studies reporting on the association between weight change and all-cause mortality in older community-dwelling adults. A random-effects meta-analysis was performed to calculate pooled hazard ratios and scored based on the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality guidelines.

RESULTS

a total of 30 studies, including 1,219,279 participants with 69,255 deaths, demonstrated that weight loss was associated with a 59% increase in mortality risk (hazard ratio (HR): 1.59; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.45-1.74; P < 0.001). Twenty-seven studies that reported outcomes for weight gain (1,210,116 participants with 65,481 deaths) indicated that weight gain was associated with a 10% increase in all-cause mortality (HR: 1.10; 95%CI: 1.02, 1.17; P = 0.01). Four studies investigated weight fluctuation (2,283 events among 6,901 participants), which was associated with a 63% increased mortality risk (HR: 1.66; 95%CI: 1.28, 2.15). No evidence of publication bias was observed (all P > 0.05).

CONCLUSION

for community-dwelling older adults, weight changes (weight loss, gain or weight fluctuation) are associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality risk relative to stable weight. Further research is needed to determine whether these associations vary depending upon initial weight, and whether or not the weight loss/gain was intentional.

Exploration of Physical Activity Barriers and Facilitators Among Adults in Kathmandu, Nepal

Previous research suggests that a range of factors influence an individual's physical activity (PA) participation, but studies among Nepalese adults are limited. In this qualitative study, we aimed to explore the multilevel influences upon PA participation among community-dwelling adults aged 40 years and above living in an urban setting in Kathmandu, Nepal. Men (n = 21) and women (n = 30) were purposively sampled to participate in one of nine focus group discussions. Types of PA undertaken constituted activities related to housework, farm work, and active travel. Individual-level barriers included lack of knowledge, lack of motivation, perceptions of already being active, personal limitations, and lack of time. Interpersonal barriers included household responsibilities and lack of support. Broader environmental barriers included lack of infrastructure for active commuting, poor safety, rising use of motorized transport, lack of resting areas, weak social norms about PA, declining agricultural engagement, mechanization, and improved access to technology and facilities. Some differences were observed between the gender and disease groups. Health benefits, integration into domestic work, opportunities for social interaction, and social support were the facilitators. Interventions focusing on families, highlighting the short- and long-term benefits of PA, addressing gender roles, and ensuring women are better supported represent opportunities to promote PA. Community-based interventions will be essential to establish social norms around PA and improve social support.

Kidney age - chronological age difference (KCD) score provides an age-adapted measure of kidney function

BACKGROUND

Given the age-related decline in glomerular filtration rate (GFR) in healthy individuals, we examined the association of all-cause death or cardiovascular event with the Kidney age - Chronological age Difference (KCD) score, whereby an individual's kidney age is estimated from their estimated GFR (eGFR) and the age-dependent eGFR decline reported for healthy living potential kidney donors.

METHODS

We examined the association between death or cardiovascular event and KCD score, age-dependent stepped eGFR criteria (eGFRstep), and eGFR < 60 ml/min/1.73 m2 (eGFR60) in a community-based high cardiovascular risk cohort of 3837 individuals aged ≥60 (median 70, interquartile range 65, 75) years, followed for a median of 5.6 years.

RESULTS

In proportional hazards analysis, KCD score ≥ 20 years (KCD20) was associated with increased risk of death or cardiovascular event in unadjusted analysis and after adjustment for age, sex and cardiovascular risk factors. Addition of KCD20, eGFRstep or eGFR60 to a cardiovascular risk factor model did not improve area under the curve for identification of individuals who experienced death or cardiovascular event in receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. However, addition of KCD20 or eGFR60, but not eGFRstep, to a cardiovascular risk factor model improved net reclassification and integrated discrimination. KCD20 identified individuals who experienced death or cardiovascular event with greater sensitivity than eGFRstep for all participants, and with greater sensitivity than eGFR60 for participants aged 60-69 years, with similar sensitivities for men and women.

CONCLUSIONS

In this high cardiovascular risk cohort aged ≥60 years, the KCD score provided an age-adapted measure of kidney function that may assist patient education, and KCD20 provided an age-adapted criterion of eGFR-related increased risk of death or cardiovascular event. Further studies that include the full age spectrum are required to examine the optimal KCD score cut point that identifies increased risk of death or cardiovascular event, and kidney events, associated with impaired kidney function, and whether the optimal KCD score cut point is similar for men and women.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00400257 , NCT00604006 , and NCT01581827 .

Mis-reporting of energy intake among older Australian adults: Prevalence, characteristics, and associations with quality of life

OBJECTIVES

Mis-reporting is common in dietary assessment, leading to misinterpretation of disease risk and could be important in older adults with increased chronic disease risk. This study investigated the prevalence and characteristics of mis-reporting among older adults and its association with health outcomes including quality of life (QoL).

METHODS

The study was conducted in 335 community-dwelling older adults at increased risk for cardiovascular disease, participating in the SCReening Evaluation of the Evolution of New Heart Failure Study dietary substudy. Diet was assessed using 4-day weighed food diaries, QoL measured through Short Form 36, and physical activity assessed using the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition physical activity questionnaire. Dietary mis-reporting was defined based on Goldberg cutoffs, using individual physical activity levels. Odds ratios were determined to establish associations between mis-reporting and health outcomes.

RESULTS

The prevalence of mis-reporting among older adults was 49.3%, with 44.5% of women mis-reporting their energy intake. The study found under-reporting of energy to be associated with body mass index, specifically being overweight (odds ratio: 3.08; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.54-6.15) and obese (odds ratio: 6.60; 95% CI, 3.05-4.26), as well as physical inactivity (odds ratio: 0.24; 95% CI, 0.14-0.43). Only physical inactivity predicted over-reporting of dietary intake (odds ratio: 7.52; 95% CI, 1.57-36.0).

CONCLUSIONS

Dietary under-reporting was associated with being overweight, obese, and physically inactive in addition to the absence of comorbidities, reinforcing the need for further research in older adults to factor in dietary mis-reporting for meaningful diet-disease relationship analyses.

The Preventable Productivity Burden of Kidney Disease in Australia

BACKGROUND

Kidney disease is associated with impaired work productivity. However, the collective effect of missed work days, reduced output at work, and early withdrawal from the workforce is rarely considered in health-economic evaluations.

METHODS

To determine the effect on work productivity of preventing incident cases of kidney disease, using the novel measure "productivity-adjusted life year" (PALY), we constructed a dynamic life table model for the Australian working-age population (aged 15-69 years) over 10 years (2020-2029), stratified by kidney-disease status. Input data, including productivity estimates, were sourced from the literature. We ascribed a financial value to the PALY metric in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) per equivalent full-time worker and assessed the total number of years lived, total PALYs, and broader economic costs (GDP per PALY). We repeated the model simulation, assuming a reduced kidney-disease incidence; the differences reflected the effects of preventing new kidney-disease cases. Outcomes were discounted by 5% annually.

RESULTS

Our projections indicate that, from 2020 to 2029, the estimated number of new kidney-disease cases will exceed 161,000. Preventing 10% of new cases of kidney disease during this period would result in >300 premature deaths averted and approximately 550 years of life and 7600 PALYs saved-equivalent to a savings of US$1.1 billion in GDP or US$67,000 per new case avoided.

CONCLUSIONS

Pursuing a relatively modest target for preventing kidney disease in Australia may prolong years of life lived and increase productive life years, resulting in substantial economic benefit. Our findings highlight the need for investment in preventive measures to reduce future cases of kidney disease.

Productivity Benefits of Preventing Type 2 Diabetes in Australia: A 10-Year Analysis

OBJECTIVE

Diabetes imposes a heavy burden on both health and productivity. In this study, we sought to estimate the potential productivity gains associated with the prevention of type 2 diabetes over the next 10 years in Australia.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Dynamic life table models were constructed to estimate years of life lived and productivity-adjusted life-years (PALYs) lived by Australians aged 20-69 years over the period from 2020 to 2029. The models distinguished people with and without type 2 diabetes. PALYs were ascribed a financial value equivalent to gross domestic product (GDP) per full-time worker in Australia (∼200,000 Australian dollars [AUD]). The model simulation was first undertaken assuming currently expected trends in the incidence of type 2 diabetes and then repeated assuming hypothetically that the incidence was reduced. The difference between the modeled outputs reflected the impact of new cases of type 2 diabetes on productivity as well as the potential benefits of prevention. An annual 5% discount rate was applied to all outcomes.

RESULTS

Over the next decade, 140 million years of life and 87 million PALYs will be lived by Australians of working age, contributing AUD 18.0 trillion to the country's GDP. A 10% reduction in the incidence of type 2 diabetes would result in a gain of 2,510 PALYs and AUD 532 million in GDP.

CONCLUSIONS

This study illustrates the health and economic impact of type 2 diabetes and the gains that could be potentially achieved from the implementation of effective prevention strategies. However, cost-effectiveness evaluations of these prevention strategies are needed.

Poor appetite and overeating reported by adults in Australia during the coronavirus-19 disease pandemic: a population-based study

OBJECTIVE

As a result of the coronavirus-19 disease (COVID-19) pandemic, Australia adopted emergency measures on 22 March 2020. This study reports the effect of the COVID-19 lockdown on appetite and overeating in Australian adults during the first month of emergency measures.

DESIGN

This study reports analysis of data from the population-based, self-completed survey. The main outcome measure was an item from the Patient Health Questionnaire 9 asking: 'Over the past 2 weeks, how often have you been bothered by poor appetite or overeating?'. Data on sociodemographic factors, symptoms of anxiety and depression, and the impact of COVID-19 and lockdown were also collected. Multivariable logistic regression was used to examine associations with poor appetite or overeating.

SETTING

An anonymous online survey available from 3 April to 2 May 2020.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 13 829 Australian residents aged 18 years or over.

RESULTS

The weighted prevalence of being bothered by poor appetite or overeating in the past 2 weeks was 53·6 %, with 11·6 % (95 % CI 10·6, 12·6) of the cohort reporting poor appetite or overeating nearly every day. High levels of anxiety, concern about contracting COVID-19, being in lockdown with children and reporting a severe impact of the lockdown were associated with increased odds of poor appetite or overeating.

CONCLUSIONS

Given the widespread prevalence of being bothered by poor appetite or overeating, universal public health interventions to address emotion-focused or situational eating during periods of lockdown may be appropriate.

The Health and Productivity Burden of Migraines in Australia

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to quantify the health and productivity burden of migraines in Australia, measured by quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), productivity-adjusted life years (PALYs, a novel measure of productivity), and associated health-care and broader economic costs.

METHODS

A Markov state-transition model was constructed to simulate follow-up of Australians aged 20-64 years over the next 10 years. The model was first run using current prevalence estimates of migraine. It was then rerun assuming that people with migraine hypothetically did not have the condition. Differences in outcomes between the 2 model simulations represented the health and productivity burden attributable to migraine. All data inputs were obtained from published sources. Gross domestic product (GDP) per equivalent full-time worker in Australia was used to reflect the cost of each PALY (AU$177,092). Future costs and outcomes were discounted by 5% annually.

RESULTS

Currently, 1,274,319 million (8.5%) Australians aged 20-64 years have migraine. Over the next 10 years, migraine was predicted to lead to a loss of 2,577,783 (95% confidence interval [CI] 2,054,980 to 3,000,784) QALYs among this cohort (2.02 per person and 2.43% of total QALYs), and AU$1.67 (95% CI $1.16 to $2.37) billion in health-care costs (AU$1313 per person, 95% CI $914 to $1862). There would also be 384,740 (95% CI 299,102 to 479,803) PALYs lost (0.30 per person and 0.53% of total PALYs), resulting in AU$68.13 (95% CI $44.42 to $98.25) billion of lost GDP (AU$53,467 per person, 95% CI $34,855 to $77,102).

CONCLUSION

Migraines impose a substantial health and economic burden on Australians of working age. Funding interventions that reduce the prevalence of migraines and/or its effects are likely to provide sound return on investment.

The impact of coronary heart disease prevention on work productivity: a 10-year analysis

AIMS

To determine the impact of preventing new (incident) cases of coronary heart disease (CHD) on years of life and productivity, using the novel measure 'productivity-adjusted life year' (PALY), over the next 10 years.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A dynamic life table model was constructed for the total Australian working-age population (15-69 years) over 10 years (2020-2029), separated by CHD status. Productivity estimates were sourced from the literature. The PALY was ascribed a financial value in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) per equivalent full-time worker. The total number of years lived, PALYs, and economic burden (in terms of GDP per PALY) were estimated. The model simulation was repeated assuming incidence was reduced, and the differences represented the impact of CHD prevention. All outcomes were discounted by 5% per annum. Over 10 years, the total projected years lived and PALYs in the Australian working-age population (with and without CHD) were 133 million and 83 million, respectively, amounting to A$17.2 trillion in GDP. We predicted more than 290 000 new (incident) CHD cases over the next 10 years. If all new cases of CHD could be prevented during this period, a total of 4 000 deaths could be averted, resulting in more than 8 000 years of life saved and 104 000 PALYs gained, equivalent to a gain of nearly A$21.8 billion (US$14.8 billion) in GDP.

CONCLUSION

Prevention of CHD will prolong years of life lived and productive life years, resulting in substantial economic benefit. Policy makers and employers are encouraged to engage in preventive measures addressing CHD.

The contribution of physical inactivity and socioeconomic factors to type 2 diabetes in Nepal: A structural equation modelling analysis

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is emerging as a significant public health challenge in Nepal. Behavioural, social and economic changes are likely to play a part in the rise of this chronic disease, as they are in many developing countries. A better understanding of the relationship between physical activity (PA), socioeconomic factors and T2DM can inform the design of prevention programs. This study aimed to identify the path relationships between PA, socioeconomic position, anthropometric and metabolic variables and T2DM.

METHODS AND RESULTS

This study analysed data from 1977 Nepalese adults aged 40-69 years from the cross-sectional WHO STEPS survey undertaken in 2013. The latent variable "PA" was created using the information on domains of PA while the latent variable "socioeconomic position" was created using the variables education, occupation and ethnicity. Participants' fasting blood glucose was used to determine their diabetes status. Structural equation modelling was conducted, and correlations and adjusted regression coefficients are reported. Individuals with higher education, in paid employment and from advantaged ethnic groups were more likely to have T2DM. Waist circumference, triglycerides and hypertension were found to have a statistically significant positive direct effect on T2DM. PA had indirect effects on T2DM, mediated by waist circumference. The indirect effects of socioeconomic position on T2DM were mediated by body mass index, waist circumference, triglycerides and total cholesterol.

CONCLUSION

Among Nepalese adults, higher socioeconomic position had a significant direct effect on T2DM, while both PA and higher socioeconomic position had significant indirect effects. Policies and programs to address T2DM in Nepal should address the factors contributing to unhealthy weight status, particularly among those of higher socioeconomic status.

Moderate or severe low back pain is associated with body mass index amongst community-dwelling older Australians

OBJECTIVE

Low back pain is prevalent in older populations and modifiable risk factors may include being overweight or obese. This study aimed to describe the prevalence and impact of moderate or severe low back pain in community-dwelling older adults and its association with body mass index (BMI).

METHODS

Cross-sectional study involving 16,439 Australians aged ≥70 years. Logistic regression was used to describe associations between the presence or absence of moderate or severe low back pain experienced on most days with BMI. Analyses were conducted separately for males and females, and controlled for age and depression at baseline.

RESULTS

Of 14,155 pain question respondents, 11 % of males (n = 710/6475) and 18 % of females (n = 1391/7680) reported moderate or severe low back pain (total 15 %, n = 2101/14,155). Of those reporting moderate or severe low back pain (n = 2101), 55 % reported taking pain-relieving medication regularly, and 29 % reported that the pain regularly interfered with sleep, 37 % with walking, and 47 % with day to day activities. When age and depression were controlled for, there was a statistically significant (p < 0.001) association between moderate or severe low back pain and being overweight (females: odds ratio OR = 1.50, 95 % confidence interval CI = 1.27-1.76) or obese (males: OR = 2.23, 95 %CI = 1.77-2.80 and females: OR = 2.91, 95 %CI = 2.48-3.42).

CONCLUSION

Moderate or severe low back pain is common, has a significant impact, and is associated with either an overweight or obese BMI among community-dwelling Australians aged ≥70 years.

Cost-effectiveness of dapagliflozin in chronic heart failure: an analysis from the Australian healthcare perspective

Aim

To assess the cost-effectiveness of dapagliflozin in addition to standard care versus standard care alone in patients with chronic heart failure and reduced ejection fraction.

Methods

A Markov model was constructed based on the Dapagliflozin and Prevention of Adverse Outcomes in Heart Failure trial to assess the clinical outcomes and costs of 1000 hypothetical subjects with established heart failure and reduced ejection fraction. The model consisted of three health states: ‘alive and event-free’, ‘alive after non-fatal hospitalisation for heart failure’ and ‘dead’. Costs and utilities were estimated from published sources. The main outcome was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio per quality-adjusted life-year gained. An Australian public healthcare perspective was employed. All outcomes and costs were discounted at a rate of 5% annually.

Results

Over a lifetime horizon, the addition of dapagliflozin to standard care in patients with heart failure and reduced ejection fraction prevented 88 acute heart failure hospitalisations (including readmissions) and yielded an additional 416 years of life and 288 quality-adjusted life-years (discounted) at an additional cost of A$3,692,440 (discounted). This equated to an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of A$12,482 per quality-adjusted life-year gained, well below the Australian willingness-to-pay threshold of A$50,000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained. Subanalyses in subjects with and without diabetes resulted in similar incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of A$13,234 and A$12,386 per quality-adjusted life-year gained, respectively.

Conclusion

Dapagliflozin is likely to be cost-effective when used as an adjunct therapy to standard care compared with standard care alone for the treatment of chronic heart failure and reduced ejection fraction.

Development, Relative Validity and Reproducibility of the Aus-SDS (Australian Short Dietary Screener) in Adults Aged 70 Years and Above

The aim of this study was to assess the relative validity and reproducibility of a six-item Australian Short Dietary Screener (Aus-SDS). The Aus-SDS assessed the daily intake of core food groups (vegetables, fruits, legumes and beans, cereals, protein sources and dairy sources) in 100 Australians (52 males and 48 females) aged ≥70 years. Relative validity was assessed by comparing intakes from the Aus-SDS1 with an average of three 24-hour recalls (24-HRs), and reproducibility using two administrations of the Aus-SDS (Aus-SDS1 and Aus-SDS2). Cohen's kappa statistic between the Aus-SDS1 and 24-HRs showed moderate to good agreement, ranging from 0.44 for fruits and dairy to 0.64 for protein. There was poor agreement for legume intake (0.12). Bland-Altman plots demonstrated acceptable limits of agreement between the Aus-SDS1 and 24-HRs for all food groups. Median intakes obtained from Aus-SDS1 and Aus-SDS2 did not differ. For all food groups, Cohen's kappa statistic ranged from 0.68 to 0.89, indicating acceptable agreement between the Aus-SDS1 and Aus-SDS2. Spearman's correlation coefficient between Aus-SDS1 and 24-HRs across all food groups ranged from 0.64 for fruit to 0.83 for protein. We found the Aus-SDS to be a useful tool in assessing daily intake of core food groups in this population.

Age-related longitudinal change in cardiac structure and function in adults at increased cardiovascular risk

AIM

Heart failure (HF) incidence increases markedly with age. We examined age-associated longitudinal change in cardiac structure and function, and their prediction by age and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors, in a community-based cohort aged ≥60 years at increased CVD risk but without HF.

METHODS AND RESULTS

CVD risk factors were recorded in 3065 participants who underwent a baseline echocardiographic examination, of whom 2358 attended a follow-up examination 3.8 [median, inter-quartile range (IQR) 3.5, 4.2] years later. Median age was 71 (IQR 67, 76) years and 55% of participants were male. Age was associated with longitudinal increase in left ventricular (LV) mass index (LVMI); decrease in LV volumes; increase in LV ejection fraction; decrease in mitral annular systolic velocity; decrease in diastolic function (decreased mitral early diastolic annular velocity (e'); and increase in left atrial volume index, mitral peak early diastolic flow velocity (E)/e' ratio, and tricuspid regurgitant velocity (TR_Vmax ) in men and women, except for TR_Vmax in men). In multivariable analysis, longitudinal increase in LVMI was explained by CVD risk factors alone, whereas age, together with CVD risk factors, independently predicted longitudinal change in all other echocardiographic parameters. CVD risk factors were differentially associated with longitudinal change in different echocardiographic parameters.

CONCLUSIONS

Whereas the increase in LVMI with age was explained by CVD risk factors alone, age, together with risk factors, independently predicted longitudinal change in all other echocardiographic parameters, providing evidence for age-specific mechanisms of change in cardiac structure and function as people age. Age-associated change in LVMI, LV volumes, and diastolic function resembled what might be expected for the evolution of HF with preserved ejection fraction. Given the differential association of different CVD risk factors with longitudinal change in different echocardiographic parameters, therapies aimed at attenuation of age-associated change in cardiac structure and function, and HF evolution, will likely need to address multiple CVD risk factors.

Recommended Intake of Key Food Groups and Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Australian Older, Rural-Dwelling Adults

This study examined the relationship between diet quality scores and cardiometabolic risk factors in regionally-dwelling older Australian adults with increased cardiovascular risk. This study was a cross-sectional analysis of demographic, anthropometric, and cardiometabolic risk factor data from 458 participants of the Cardiovascular Stream of the Hazelwood Health Study. Participants completed a 120 item semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire. Multivariable linear regression adjusting for age, sex, smoking, physical activity, education, diabetes, and body mass index was used to examine the relationship between diet and cardiometabolic risk factors. Mean (SD) age of participants was 71 (8) years, and 55% were male. More than half of men and women did not meet recommended intakes of fibre, while 60% of men and 42% of women exceeded recommended dietary sodium intakes. Higher diet quality in terms of intake of vegetables, grains, and non-processed meat, as well as intake of non-fried fish, was associated with more favourable cardiometabolic risk profiles, while sugar-sweetened soft drink intake was strongly associated with adverse cardiometabolic risk factor levels. In older, regionally-dwelling adults, dietary public health strategies that address whole grain products, vegetable and fish consumption, and sugar-sweetened soft-drink intake may be of benefit in reducing cardiometabolic risk.

Skipping Breakfast and the Risk of Cardiovascular Disease and Death: A Systematic Review of Prospective Cohort Studies in Primary Prevention Settings

Several studies have associated skipping (not having) breakfast with cardiometabolic risk factors such as obesity, high blood pressure, unfavorable lipid profiles, diabetes, and metabolic syndrome. We examined the available evidence regarding the effect of skipping breakfast on cardiovascular morbidity and mortality, as well as all-cause mortality. Medline, Embase, and Web of Science were searched from inception until May 2019 to identify prospective cohort studies that examined the association between skipping breakfast and the risk of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality and all-cause death. Electronic searches were supplemented by manual screening of the references of retrieved studies. Out of 456 citations identified, four studies (from Japan and the US) were included. The included studies involved a total of 199,634 adults (aged ≥40 years; 48.5% female) without known cardiovascular disease (CVD) at baseline followed over a median duration of 17.4 years. The pooled data suggested that people who regularly skipped breakfast were about 21% more likely (hazard ratio (HR) 1.21, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.08-1.35; I² = 17.3%, p = 0.304) to experience incident CVD or die from it than people who regularly consumed breakfast. Also, the risk of all-cause death was 32% higher (HR 1.32, 95% CI 1.17-1.48; I² = 7.6%, p = 0.339) in people who regularly skipped breakfast than in people who regularly consumed breakfast. However, the definition of skipping breakfast was heterogenous and adjustment for confounders varied significantly. Therefore, residual confounding could not be ruled out and caution is required in the interpretation of the findings. Hence, large prospective studies with a consistent definition of skipping breakfast, and conducted across different populations, are needed to provide more robust evidence of the health effects of skipping breakfast.

Association between Dietary Intake and Lipid-Lowering Therapy: Prospective Analysis of Data from Australian Diabetes, Obesity, and Lifestyle Study (AusDiab) Using a Quantile Regression Approach

Lipid-lowering therapy (LLT) should be accompanied by dietary guidance for cardiovascular risk reduction; however, current evidence suggests sub-optimal dietary behaviors in those on LLT. We examined the associations between the dietary intake of key food groups (vegetables, fruit, cereal, protein, and dairy) and LLT use in Australian adults using quantile regression. We used data from the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle Study (AusDiab), a prospective population-based study of adults aged ≥25 years, conducted over 5 years (1999-2005). Measurements included a 121-item food frequency questionnaire and LLT use. LLT use was categorized as: LLT users (n = 446), commenced LLT (n = 565), ceased LLT (n = 71), and non-users (n = 4813). Less than 1% of the cohort met recommended intakes of all food groups at the baseline and follow up. The median daily dietary intake at the follow up among LLT users was 2.2 serves of vegetables, 1.4 serves of fruit, 2.8 serves of cereal, 2.0 serves of protein, and 1.4 serves of dairy. Adjusted analysis showed no differences across the quantiles of intake of key food groups in LLT users and commenced LLT compared to non-users. The LLT medication status is not associated with any difference in meeting recommended intakes of key foods.

Physical activity participation and the risk of chronic diseases among South Asian adults: a systematic review and meta-analysis

South Asia specific reviews on the role of physical activity (PA) domains on chronic disease prevention are lacking. This study aimed to systematically review published literature to identify the association between PA domains and chronic diseases and to provide summary estimates of the strength of association. Nine electronic databases were searched using the predefined inclusion criteria which included population (South Asian adults 40 years or older), exposure (PA or sedentary behaviour) and outcome (type 2 diabetes mellitus, breast cancer, colorectal cancer, coronary heart disease, stroke, vascular disease and musculoskeletal diseases and their markers). A random-effects meta-analysis was carried out for cardiometabolic outcomes whereas narrative synthesis was completed for other outcome variables. Inactive or less active South Asian adults were at 31% higher risk of being hypertensive. Likewise, the risk of cardiometabolic outcomes was 1.34 times higher among inactive adults. Household PA was found to have a protective effect  on breast cancer risk. Total and leisure time PA had a protective effect on osteoporosis among males and females respectively. Contemporary studies with a longitudinal design, representative samples, valid and reliable assessment of different domains are needed to establish the role of PA in chronic disease prevention in the region.

Threshold body mass index and sex-specific waist circumference for increased risk of heart failure with preserved ejection fraction

Background

Body mass index †Deceased. (BMI) is a risk factor for heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF).

Design

We investigated the threshold BMI and sex-specific waist circumference associated with increased HFpEF incidence in the SCReening Evaluation of the Evolution of New Heart Failure (SCREEN-HF) study, a cohort study of a community-based population at increased cardiovascular disease risk.

Methods

Inclusion criteria were age ≥60 years with one or more of self-reported hypertension, diabetes, heart disease, abnormal heart rhythm, cerebrovascular disease or renal impairment. Exclusion criteria were known heart failure, ejection fraction <50% or more than mild valve abnormality. Among 3847 SCREEN-HF participants, 73 were diagnosed with HFpEF at a median of 4.5 (interquartile range: 2.9–5.5) years after enrolment.

Results

HFpEF incidence rates were higher for BMI ≥27.5 kg/m2 than for BMI < 25 kg/m2, and for waist circumference >100 cm (men) or > 90 cm (women) than for waist circumference ≤94 cm (men) or ≤ 83 cm (women) in Poisson regression analysis. Semiparametric proportional hazards analyses confirmed these BMI and waist circumference thresholds, and exceeding these thresholds was associated with an attributable risk of HFpEF of 44–49%.

Conclusions

Both central obesity and overweight were associated with increased HFpEF incidence. Although a randomised trial of weight control would be necessary to establish a causal relationship between obesity/overweight and HFpEF incidence, these data suggest that maintenance of BMI and waist circumference below these thresholds in a community similar to that of the SCREEN-HF cohort may reduce the HFpEF incidence rate by as much as 50%.

Impact of tobacco use on health and work productivity in Malaysia

Background

The loss of productivity arising from tobacco use in low/middle-income countries has not been well described. We sought to examine the impact of cigarette smoking on population health and work productivity in Malaysia using a recently published measure, the productivity-adjusted life year (PALY).

Methods

A life table model was constructed using published Malaysian demographic and mortality data. Our analysis was limited to male smokers due to the low smoking prevalence in females (1.1%). Male smokers aged 15–64 years were followed up until 65 years or until death. The population attributable risk, health-related quality of life decrements and relative reduction in productivity due to smoking were sourced from published data. The analysis was repeated assuming the cohorts were never smokers, and the differences in outcomes represented the health and productivity burden conferred by smoking. The cost of productivity loss was estimated based on the gross domestic product per equivalent full-time worker in Malaysia.

Results

Tobacco use is highly prevalent among working-age males in Malaysia, with 4.2 million (37.5%) daily smokers among men aged between 15 and 64 years. Overall, our model estimated that smoking resulted in the loss of over 2.1 million life years (2.9%), 5.5 million (8.2%) quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and 3.0 million (4.8%) PALYs. Smoking was estimated to incur RM275.3 billion (US$69.4 billion) in loss of productivity.

Conclusion

Tobacco use imposes a significant public health and economic burden among working-age males in Malaysia. This study highlights the need of effective public health interventions to reduce tobacco use.