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Chavanne AV, Paillère Martinot ML, Penttilä J, Grimmer Y, Conrod P, Stringaris A, van Noort B, Isensee C, Becker A, Banaschewski T, Bokde ALW, Desrivières S, Flor H, Grigis A, Garavan H, Gowland P, Heinz A, Brühl R, Nees F, Papadopoulos Orfanos D, Paus T, Poustka L, Hohmann S, Millenet S, Fröhner JH, Smolka MN, Walter H, Whelan R, Schumann G, Martinot JL, Artiges E. Anxiety onset in adolescents: a machine-learning prediction. Mol Psychiatry 2023; 28:639-646. [PMID: 36481929 PMCID: PMC9908534 DOI: 10.1038/s41380-022-01840-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/22/2022] [Revised: 09/09/2022] [Accepted: 10/10/2022] [Indexed: 12/13/2022]
Abstract
Recent longitudinal studies in youth have reported MRI correlates of prospective anxiety symptoms during adolescence, a vulnerable period for the onset of anxiety disorders. However, their predictive value has not been established. Individual prediction through machine-learning algorithms might help bridge the gap to clinical relevance. A voting classifier with Random Forest, Support Vector Machine and Logistic Regression algorithms was used to evaluate the predictive pertinence of gray matter volumes of interest and psychometric scores in the detection of prospective clinical anxiety. Participants with clinical anxiety at age 18-23 (N = 156) were investigated at age 14 along with healthy controls (N = 424). Shapley values were extracted for in-depth interpretation of feature importance. Prospective prediction of pooled anxiety disorders relied mostly on psychometric features and achieved moderate performance (area under the receiver operating curve = 0.68), while generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) prediction achieved similar performance. MRI regional volumes did not improve the prediction performance of prospective pooled anxiety disorders with respect to psychometric features alone, but they improved the prediction performance of GAD, with the caudate and pallidum volumes being among the most contributing features. To conclude, in non-anxious 14 year old adolescents, future clinical anxiety onset 4-8 years later could be individually predicted. Psychometric features such as neuroticism, hopelessness and emotional symptoms were the main contributors to pooled anxiety disorders prediction. Neuroanatomical data, such as caudate and pallidum volume, proved valuable for GAD and should be included in prospective clinical anxiety prediction in adolescents.
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Grants
- MRF_MRF-058-0004-RG-DESRI MRF
- MR/R00465X/1 Medical Research Council
- R01 MH085772 NIMH NIH HHS
- U54 EB020403 NIBIB NIH HHS
- R56 AG058854 NIA NIH HHS
- MR/W002418/1 Medical Research Council
- MR/S020306/1 Medical Research Council
- MRF_MRF-058-0009-RG-DESR-C0759 MRF
- MR/N000390/1 Medical Research Council
- R01 DA049238 NIDA NIH HHS
- This work received support from the following sources: the European Union-funded FP6 Integrated Project IMAGEN (Reinforcement-related behaviour in normal brain function and psychopathology) (LSHM-CT- 2007-037286), the Horizon 2020 funded ERC Advanced Grant ‘STRATIFY’ (Brain network based stratification of reinforcement-related disorders) (695313), Human Brain Project (HBP SGA 2, 785907, and HBP SGA 3, 945539), the Medical Research Council Grant 'c-VEDA’ (Consortium on Vulnerability to Externalizing Disorders and Addictions) (MR/N000390/1), the National Institute of Health (NIH) (R01DA049238, A decentralized macro and micro gene-by-environment interaction analysis of substance use behavior and its brain biomarkers), the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Biomedical Research Centre at South London and Maudsley NHS Foundation Trust and King’s College London, the Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (BMBF grants 01GS08152; 01EV0711; Forschungsnetz AERIAL 01EE1406A, 01EE1406B; Forschungsnetz IMAC- Mind 01GL1745B), the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG grants SM 80/7-2, SFB 940, TRR 265, NE 1383/14-1), the Medical Research Foundation and Medical Research Council (grants MR/R00465X/1 and MR/S020306/1), the National Institutes of Health (NIH) funded ENIGMA (grants 5U54EB020403-05 and 1R56AG058854-01). Further support was provided by grants from: - the ANR (ANR-12-SAMA-0004, AAPG2019 - GeBra), the Eranet Neuron (AF12-NEUR0008-01 - WM2NA; and ANR-18-NEUR00002-01 - ADORe), the Fondation de France (00081242), the Fondation pour la Recherche Médicale (DPA20140629802), the Mission Interministérielle de Lutte-contre-les-Drogues-et-les-Conduites-Addictives (MILDECA), the Assistance-Publique-Hôpitaux-de-Paris and INSERM (interface grant), Paris Sud University IDEX 2012, the Fondation de l’Avenir (grant AP-RM-17-013), the Fédération pour la Recherche sur le Cerveau; the National Institutes of Health, Science Foundation Ireland (16/ERCD/3797), U.S.A. (Axon, Testosterone and Mental Health during Adolescence; RO1 MH085772-01A1), and by NIH Consortium grant U54 EB020403, supported by a cross-NIH alliance that funds Big Data to Knowledge Centres of Excellence. The INSERM, and the Strasbourg University and SATT CONECTUS, provided sponsorship (PI: Jean-Luc Martinot).
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Affiliation(s)
- Alice V Chavanne
- Université Paris-Saclay, Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale, INSERM U1299 "Trajectoires développementales Psychiatrie", Ecole Normale Supérieure Paris-Saclay, CNRS UMR 9010, Centre Borelli, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
- Department of Psychology, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | - Marie Laure Paillère Martinot
- Université Paris-Saclay, Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale, INSERM U1299 "Trajectoires développementales Psychiatrie", Ecole Normale Supérieure Paris-Saclay, CNRS UMR 9010, Centre Borelli, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
- Department of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry, Pitié-Salpêtrière Hospital, AP-HP, Sorbonne Université, Paris, France
| | - Jani Penttilä
- Department of Social and Health Care, Psychosocial Services Adolescent Outpatient Clinic Kauppakatu 14, Lahti, Finland
| | - Yvonne Grimmer
- Department of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, Central Institute of Mental Health, Medical Faculty Mannheim, Heidelberg University, Mannheim, Germany
| | - Patricia Conrod
- Department of Psychiatry, CHU Sainte-Justine Hospital, University of Montréal, Montreal, QC, Canada
| | | | - Betteke van Noort
- Department of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry Psychosomatics and Psychotherapy, Campus CharitéMitte, Charité-Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Charitéplatz 1, Berlin, Germany
| | - Corinna Isensee
- Department of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, University Medical Center, von-Siebold-Str. 5, 37075, Göttingen, Germany
| | - Andreas Becker
- Department of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, University Medical Center, von-Siebold-Str. 5, 37075, Göttingen, Germany
| | - Tobias Banaschewski
- Department of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, Central Institute of Mental Health, Medical Faculty Mannheim, Heidelberg University, Mannheim, Germany
| | - Arun L W Bokde
- Discipline of Psychiatry, School of Medicine and Trinity College Institute of Neuroscience, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland
| | - Sylvane Desrivières
- Centre for Population Neuroscience and Precision Medicine (PONS), Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology & Neuroscience, Social, Genetic and Developmental Psychiatry Centre, King's College London, London, UK
| | - Herta Flor
- Institute of Cognitive and Clinical Neuroscience, Central Institute of Mental Health, Medical Faculty Mannheim, Heidelberg University, Square J5, Mannheim, Germany
- Department of Psychology, School of Social Sciences, University of Mannheim, 68131, Mannheim, Germany
| | - Antoine Grigis
- NeuroSpin, CEA, Université Paris-Saclay, F-91191, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | - Hugh Garavan
- Departments of Psychiatry and Psychology, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT, 05405, USA
| | - Penny Gowland
- Sir Peter Mansfield Imaging Centre School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Nottingham, University Park, Nottingham, UK
| | - Andreas Heinz
- Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy CCM, Charité-Universitätsmedizin Berlin, corporate member of Freie Universität Berlin, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, and Berlin Institute of Health, Berlin, Germany
| | - Rüdiger Brühl
- Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt (PTB), Braunschweig and Berlin, Germany
| | - Frauke Nees
- Department of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, Central Institute of Mental Health, Medical Faculty Mannheim, Heidelberg University, Mannheim, Germany
- Institute of Cognitive and Clinical Neuroscience, Central Institute of Mental Health, Medical Faculty Mannheim, Heidelberg University, Square J5, Mannheim, Germany
- Institute of Medical Psychology and Medical Sociology, University Medical Center Schleswig Holstein, Kiel University, Kiel, Germany
| | | | - Tomáš Paus
- Department of Psychiatry and Neuroscience, Faculty of Medicine, CHU Sainte-Justine Research Center, Population Neuroscience Laboratory, University of Montreal, Montreal, QC, Canada
| | - Luise Poustka
- Department of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, University Medical Center, von-Siebold-Str. 5, 37075, Göttingen, Germany
| | - Sarah Hohmann
- Department of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, Central Institute of Mental Health, Medical Faculty Mannheim, Heidelberg University, Mannheim, Germany
| | - Sabina Millenet
- Department of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, Central Institute of Mental Health, Medical Faculty Mannheim, Heidelberg University, Mannheim, Germany
| | - Juliane H Fröhner
- Section of Systems Neuroscience, Medical Faculty, Technische Universität Dresden, Dresden, Germany
| | - Michael N Smolka
- Section of Systems Neuroscience, Medical Faculty, Technische Universität Dresden, Dresden, Germany
| | - Henrik Walter
- Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy CCM, Charité-Universitätsmedizin Berlin, corporate member of Freie Universität Berlin, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, and Berlin Institute of Health, Berlin, Germany
| | - Robert Whelan
- School of Psychology and Global Brain Health Institute, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland
| | - Gunter Schumann
- Centre for Population Neuroscience and Stratified Medicine (PONS), ISTBI, Fudan University Shanghai and Department of Psychiatry and Neuroscience, Charité University Medicine, Berlin, Germany
| | - Jean-Luc Martinot
- Université Paris-Saclay, Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale, INSERM U1299 "Trajectoires développementales Psychiatrie", Ecole Normale Supérieure Paris-Saclay, CNRS UMR 9010, Centre Borelli, Gif-sur-Yvette, France.
| | - Eric Artiges
- Université Paris-Saclay, Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale, INSERM U1299 "Trajectoires développementales Psychiatrie", Ecole Normale Supérieure Paris-Saclay, CNRS UMR 9010, Centre Borelli, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
- Department of Psychiatry, EPS Barthélémy Durand, Etampes, France
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Abstract
OBJECTIVE Although anxiety can be an adaptive response to unpredictable threats, pathological anxiety disorders occur when symptoms adversely affect daily life. Whether or not adaptive and pathological anxiety share mechanisms remains unknown, but if they do, induced (adaptive) anxiety could be used as an intermediate translational model of pathological anxiety to improve drug development pipelines. The authors therefore compared meta-analyses of functional neuroimaging studies of induced and pathological anxiety. METHODS A systematic search of the PubMed database was conducted in June 2019 for whole-brain functional MRI articles. Eligible articles contrasted either anxious patients to control subjects or an unpredictable-threat condition to a safe condition in healthy participants. Five anxiety disorders were included: posttraumatic stress disorder, social anxiety disorder, generalized anxiety disorder, panic disorder, and specific phobia. A total of 3,433 records were identified, 181 articles met selection criteria, and the largest subset of task type was emotional (N=138). Seed-based d-mapping software was used for all analyses. RESULTS Induced anxiety (N=693 participants) and pathological anxiety (N=2,554 patients and 2,348 control subjects) both showed increased activation in the left and right insula (coordinates, 44, 14, -14 and -38, 20, -8; k=2,102 and k=1,305, respectively) and cingulate cortex/medial prefrontal cortex (-12, -8, 68; k=2,217). When the analyses were split by disorder, specific phobia appeared the most, and generalized anxiety disorder the least, similar to induced anxiety. CONCLUSIONS This meta-analysis indicates a consistent pattern of activation across induced and pathological anxiety, supporting the proposition that some neurobiological mechanisms overlap and that the former may be used as a model for the latter. Induced anxiety might nevertheless be a better model for some anxiety disorders than others.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alice V. Chavanne
- Institute of Cognitive Neuroscience, University College London
- École Normale Supérieure Paris-Saclay
| | - Oliver J. Robinson
- Institute of Cognitive Neuroscience, University College London
- Research Department of Clinical, Educational and Health Psychology, University College London
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