Development and validation of the ASGARD risk score for safe monitoring in asymptomatic nonsevere aortic stenosis

AIMS

Current guidelines recommend serial echocardiography at minimum 1-2 year intervals for monitoring patients with nonsevere aortic valve stenosis (AS), which is costly and often clinically inconsequential.We aimed to develop and test whether the biomarker-based ASGARD risk score (Aortic Valve Stenosis Guarded by Amplified Risk Determination) can guide the timing of echocardiograms in asymptomatic patients with nonsevere AS.

METHODS

The development cohort comprised 1,093 of 1,589 (69%) asymptomatic patients with mild-to-moderate AS who remained event-free one year after inclusion into the SEAS trial. Cox regression landmark analyses with a 2-year follow-up identified the model (ASGARD) with the lowest Akaike information criterion for association to AS-related composite outcome (heart failure hospitalization, aortic valve replacement, or cardiovascular death). Fine-Gray analyses provided cumulative event rates by ASGARD score quartiles. The ASGARD score was internally validated in the remaining 496 patients (31%) from the SEAS-cohort and externally in 71 asymptomatic outpatients with nonsevere AS from six Copenhagen hospitals.

RESULTS

The ASGARD score comprises updated measurements of heart rate and age- and sex-adjusted N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide upon transaortic maximal velocity (Vmax) from the previous year. The ASGARD score had high predictive accuracy across all cohorts (external validation: area under the curve: 0.74 [95% CI, 0.62-0.86]), and similar to an updated Vmax measurement. An ASGARD score ≤50% was associated with AS-related event rates ≤5% for a minimum of 15 months.

CONCLUSION

The ASGARD score could provide a personalized and safe surveillance alternative to routinely planned echocardiograms, so physicians can prioritize echocardiograms for high-risk patients.

Elevated plasma triglycerides increase risk of psoriasis: A cohort and Mendelian randomization study

BACKGROUND

It is increasingly clear that triglyceride-rich lipoproteins are proinflammatory and cause low-grade systemic inflammation. However, it is currently unknown whether elevated plasma triglycerides are causally related to development of psoriasis, a skin disorder driven by chronic inflammation.

OBJECTIVE

To determine if elevated plasma triglycerides are associated with increased risk of psoriasis in observational and Mendelian randomization analysis.

METHODS

Consecutive individuals from the Copenhagen General Population Study (CGPS) were included. We used plasma triglycerides (n = 108,043) and a weighted triglyceride allele score (n = 92,579) on nine known triglyceride-altering genetic variants. Genetic results were replicated in 337,159 individuals from the UK biobank. Psoriasis was ICD10-code hospital contact in main analyses, and prescription of topical antipsoriatics for mild psoriasis in sensitivity analysis.

RESULTS

During a median 9.3 years (0.1-15.1) of follow-up (from 2003-2015 through 2018), 855 (1%) individuals were diagnosed with psoriasis by ICD-10 in observational analysis and 772 (1%) in Mendelian randomization analysis. In observational analysis, multivariable adjusted hazard ratio for psoriasis by ICD-10 were 1.26 (95% CI:1.15-1.39) per doubling in plasma triglycerides with a corresponding causal, genetic risk ratio of 2.10 (1.30-3.38). Causality was confirmed in the UK biobank. Results were similar but slightly attenuated when we used topical antipsoriatics prescription for mild psoriasis.

CONCLUSION

Elevated plasma triglycerides are associated with increased risk of psoriasis in observational and Mendelian randomization analysis.

Association of high-sensitivity troponin T with outcomes in asymptomatic non-severe aortic stenosis: a post-hoc substudy of the SEAS trial

BACKGROUND

High-sensitivity Troponin T (hsTnT), a biomarker of cardiomyocyte overload and injury, relates to aortic valve replacement (AVR) and mortality in severe aortic stenosis (AS). However, its prognostic value remains unknown in asymptomatic patients with AS. We aimed to investigate if an hsTnT level >14 pg/mL (above upper limit of normal 99th percentile) is associated with echocardiographic AS-severity, subsequent AVR, ischaemic coronary events (ICE), and mortality in asymptomatic patients with non-severe AS.

METHODS

In this post-hoc sub-analysis of the multicentre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled SEAS trial (ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00092677), we included asymptomatic patients with mild to moderate-severe AS. We ascertained baseline and 1-year hsTnT concentrations and examined the association between baseline levels and the risk of the primary composite endpoint, defined as the first event of all-cause mortality, isolated AVR (without coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG)), or ICE. Multivariable regressions and competing risk analyses examined associations of hsTnT level >14 pg/mL with clinical correlates and 5-year risk of the primary endpoint.

FINDINGS

Between January 6, 2003, and March 4, 2004, a total of 1873 patients were enrolled in the SEAS trial, and 1739 patients were included in this post-hoc sub-analysis. Patients had a mean (SD) age of 67.5 (9.7) years, 61.0% (1061) were men, 17.4% (302) had moderate-severe AS, and 26.0% (453) had hsTnT level >14 pg/mL. The median hsTnT difference from baseline to 1-year was 0.8 pg/mL (IQR, -0.4 to 2.3). In adjusted linear regression, log(hsTnT) did not correlate with echocardiographic AS severity (p = 0.36). In multivariable Cox regression, a hsTnT level >14 pg/mL vs. hsTnT ≤14 pg/mL was associated with an increased risk of the primary composite endpoint (HR, 1.41; 95% CI, 1.18-1.70; p = 0.0002). In a competing risk model of first of the individual components of the primary endpoint, a hsTnT level >14 pg/mL was associated with ICE risk (HR 1.71; 95% CI, 1.23-2.38; p = 0.0013), but not with isolated AVR (p = 0.064) or all-cause mortality (p = 0.49) as the first event.

INTERPRETATION

hsTnT level is within the reference range (≤14 pg/mL) in 3 out of 4 non-ischaemic patients with asymptomatic mild-to-moderate AS and remains stable during a 1-year follow-up regardless of AS-severity. An hsTnT level >14 pg/mL was mainly associated with subsequent ICE, which suggest that hsTnT concentration is primarily a risk marker of subclinical coronary atherosclerotic disease.

FUNDING

Merck & Co., Inc., the Schering-Plough Corporation, the Interreg IVA program, Roche Diagnostics Ltd., and Gangstedfonden. Open access publication fee funding provided by prof. Olav W. Nielsen and Department of Cardiology, Bispebjerg University Hospital, Denmark.

Atrial fibrillation onset before heart failure or vice versa: what is worst? A nationwide register study

AIMS

Atrial fibrillation (AF) and heart failure (HF) often coexist. However, whether AF onset before HF or vice versa is associated with the worst outcome remains unclear. A consensus of large studies can guide future research and preventive strategies to better target high-risk patients.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We included all Danish cases with the coexistence of AF and HF (2005-17) using nationwide registries. Patients were divided into three separate groups (i) AF before HF, (ii) HF before AF, or (iii) AF and HF diagnosed concurrently (±30 days). Adjusting landmark Cox analyses (index date was the time of the latter diagnosis of AF or HF) were used for evaluating the association of the three groups with a composite outcome of ischaemic stroke or death. Among a total of 49 042 patients included, 40% had AF before HF, 27% had HF before AF, and 33% had AF and HF diagnosed concurrently. The composite endpoint accrued more often in patients with HF before AF compared to the two other groups (<0.001), and this remained significant in the adjusted analyses with hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) of 1.26 (1.22-1.30) compared to AF before HF. Finally, antihypertensive treatment, oral anticoagulants, amiodarone, statins, and AF ablation were associated with a lower hazard ratio of the composite endpoint (all < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

In this large Danish national cohort, diagnosis of HF before AF was associated with an increased absolute risk of death compared to AF before HF and AF and HF diagnosed concurrently. Antihypertensive treatment, oral anticoagulants, amiodarone, statins, and AF ablation may improve prognosis.

High-sensitive Troponin T is not associated with the progression of asymptomatic mild to moderate aortic stenosis: a post hoc substudy of the SEAS trial

Background

Aortic stenosis (AS) and coronary artery disease (CAD) share pathophysiological pathways, as reflected by frequent concomitant revascularization in patients undergoing aortic valve replacement (AVR). High-sensitive Troponin T (hsTnT) is a proven biomarker of cardiomyocyte overload and injury, and predicts postoperative mortality after AVR. However, it is unknown if hsTnT can predict AVR, mortality or ischemic coronary events (ICE) in asymptomatic AS patients.

Purpose

To investigate the hypothesis that increased hsTnT is associated with more severe AS and a higher risk of adverse outcomes in asymptomatic AS patients without overt CAD.

Methods

hsTnT concentrations were examined at baseline and after 1-year follow-up in 1739 asymptomatic AS patients enrolled in the randomized, double-blind Simvastatin and Ezetimibe in Aortic Stenosis (SEAS) study. The main inclusion criteria were: left ventricular (LV) ejection fraction &gt;55%, transaortic maximal velocity between 2.5–4.0 m/s, and no history of CAD. The primary exposure variable was increased hsTnT (&gt;14 pg/mL according to the assay manufacturer, Roche). This study's primary endpoint was a composite of competing risk outcomes: all-cause mortality as the first event, AVR without revascularization, and ICE (defined as myocardial infarction before AVR, PCI before or combined with AVR, or any CABG). Multivariable regression examined associations between hsTnT and clinical variables. Cox proportional hazards regression models were adjusted for age, sex, creatinine, LV mass index, mean aortic pressure gradient (Pmean) and stratified by center and lipid-lowering treatment. We analyzed outcomes during 5-year follow-up from baseline.

Results

At baseline, 453 (26.0%) patients had increased hsTnT and 302 (17.4%) had moderate-severe AS with a mean (SD) aortic valve area of 0.8 (0.2) cm2 and Pmean of 33.2 (8.8) mmHg. The median annual hsTnT change from baseline to year 1 was 0.8 pg/mL (IQR, −0.4 to 2.3), regardless of AS severity (P=0.08). In adjusted models, log(hsTnT at baseline) was associated with age, sex, creatinine, and LV mass index (all P&lt;0.05), but not with AS severity (P=0.36). The incidence rate ratio for ICE (Figure 1) in patients with increased vs normal baseline hsTnT concentrations was 2.32 (95% CI, 1.72–3.11, P&lt;0.001). In adjusted Cox regression, increased hsTnT was associated with an increased 5-year ICE risk (HR 1.64; 95% CI, 1.18–2.29, P=0.003), but neither with AVR without revascularization nor death (Figure 1).

Conclusion

In these asymptomatic AS patients without overt CAD, hsTnT is often normal and remains stable during 1 year of follow-up regardless of AS severity. Increased hsTnT is associated with CAD-related events, but neither to AS severity nor AVR without concomitant revascularization. This analysis does not support routine hsTnT measurement in asymptomatic AS to predict AVR related to AS progression, although hsTnT could improve the risk assessment for ICE.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Private company. Main funding source(s): Main sponsor (SEAS): Merck & Co Inc, Whitehouse Station, New JerseyBlood analysis sponsor: Roche Diagnostics International Ltd, Switzerland

Abstract P221: Cardiovascular Outcomes In Hypertensive Patients Who Discontinue Study Medication In A Large Outcome Trial. The Life Study

Objective: Patient discontinuation of study medication during a hypertension outcome trial has implications for study power. We aimed to assess patient characteristics and outcomes in patients with hypertension and left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) who discontinued the study drug but otherwise remained in the study until the end of follow-up.

Methods: In patients who discontinued vs. those continuing, Cox proportional hazards models identified baseline variables that had a significant impact on the occurrence of the primary composite endpoint (cardiovascular death, stroke, and myocardial infarction) in 9,193 hypertensive patients and LVH in the LIFE study.

Results: During a mean follow-up of 4.8 years, 3,281 patients (35.7%) discontinued one or more days, not counting death as a reason for discontinuation. The distribution of days to discontinuation was highly skewed towards the first part of the study; the 25 th percentile was at day 161, and the median was at day 669. Reasons for discontinuation were a clinical adverse event (50%), a secondary study endpoint (19%), required study therapy (11%), withdrawal (2%), administrative (18%), and lost to follow-up (0.2%). Those who discontinued were older, more often male, had slightly lower body mass index, higher systolic and lower diastolic pressure, higher Framingham Risk Score (FRS), and more ECG LVH determined by either Cornell product or Sokolow-Lyon criteria. Patients randomized to losartan discontinued less than those randomized to atenolol. Multivariate analyses showed that older age, male gender, FRS, Sokolow-Lyon criteria, atenolol treatment as well as a history of pre-study myocardial infarction, cerebral vascular disease, peripheral vascular disease, and atrial fibrillation as well as lower levels of hemoglobin, higher serum creatinine and lower cholesterol independently predicted discontinuation.

Conclusions: Patients discontinued during the first part of the study mainly due to a clinical adverse event. Patients who discontinued the study drug had, on average, more previous and concurrent cardiovascular disease than those who continued until the study ended. Thus, too high risk in an outcome study implies early drug discontinuation and thus reduction in the study power.

Randomized Trial of Surgical Left Atrial Appendage Closure: Protection Against Cerebrovascular Events

Following open-heart surgery, atrial fibrillation and stroke occur frequently. Left atrial appendage closure added to elective open-heart surgery could reduce the risk of ischemic stroke. We aim to examine if routine closure of the left atrial appendage in patients undergoing open-heart surgery provides long-term protection against cerebrovascular events independently of atrial fibrillation history, stroke risk, and oral anticoagulation use. Long-term follow-up of patients enrolled in the prospective, randomized, open-label, blinded evaluation trial entitled left atrial appendage closure by surgery (NCT02378116). Patients were stratified by oral anticoagulation status and randomized (1:1) to left atrial appendage closure in addition to elective open-heart surgery vs standard care. The primary composite endpoint was ischemic stroke events, transient ischemic attacks, and imaging findings of silent cerebral ischemic lesions. Two neurologists blinded for treatment assignment adjudicated cerebrovascular events. In total, 186 patients (82% males) were reviewed. At baseline, mean (standard deviation (SD)) age was68 (9) years and 13.4% (n = 25/186) had been diagnosed with atrial fibrillation. Median [interquartile range (IQR)] CHA2DS2-VASc was 3 [2,4] and 25.9% (n = 48/186) were receiving oral anticoagulants. Mean follow-up was 6.2 (2.5) years. The left atrial appendage closure group experienced fewer cerebrovascular events; intention-to-treat 11 vs 19 (P = 0.033, n = 186) and per-protocol 9 vs 17 (P = 0.186, n = 141). Left atrial appendage closure as an add-on open-heart surgery, regardless of pre-surgery atrial fibrillation and oral anticoagulation status, seems safe and may reduce cerebrovascular events in long-term follow-up. More extensive randomized clinical trials investigating left atrial appendage closure in patients without atrial fibrillation and high stroke risk are warranted.

Association of Annual N-Terminal Pro-Brain Natriuretic Peptide Measurements With Clinical Events in Patients With Asymptomatic Nonsevere Aortic Stenosis: A Post Hoc Substudy of the SEAS Trial

IMPORTANCE

Recent studies have questioned the presumed low-risk status of patients with asymptomatic nonsevere aortic stenosis (AS). Whether annual N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) measurements are useful for risk assessment is unknown.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the association of annual NT-proBNP measurements with clinical outcomes in patients with nonsevere AS.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Analysis of annual NT-proBNP concentrations in the multicenter, double-blind Simvastatin and Ezetimibe in Aortic Stenosis (SEAS) randomized clinical trial was performed. SEAS was conducted from January 6, 2003, to April 1, 2008. Blood samples were analyzed in 2016, and data analysis was performed from February 10 to October 10, 2021. SEAS included 1873 patients with asymptomatic AS not requiring statin therapy with transaortic maximal flow velocity from 2.5 to 4.0 m/s and preserved ejection fraction. This substudy included 1644 patients (87.8%) with available blood samples at baseline and year 1.

EXPOSURES

Increased age- and sex-adjusted NT-proBNP concentrations at year 1 and a 1.5-fold or greater relative NT-proBNP concentration change from baseline to year 1. Moderate AS was defined as baseline maximal flow velocity greater than or equal to 3.0 m/s.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Aortic valve events (AVEs), which are a composite of aortic valve replacement, cardiovascular death, or incident heart failure due to AS progression, were noted. Landmark analyses from year 1 examined the association of NT-proBNP concentrations with outcomes.

RESULTS

Among 1644 patients, 996 were men (60.6%); mean (SD) age was 67.5 (9.7) years. Adjusted NT-proBNP concentrations were within the reference range (normal) in 1228 of 1594 patients (77.0%) with NT-proBNP values available at baseline and in 1164 of 1644 patients (70.8%) at year 1. During the next 2 years of follow-up, the AVE rates per 100 patient-years for normal vs increased adjusted NT-proBNP levels at year 1 were 1.39 (95% CI, 0.86-2.23) vs 7.05 (95% CI, 4.60-10.81) for patients with mild AS (P < .01), and 10.38 (95% CI, 8.56-12.59) vs 26.20 (95% CI, 22.03-31.15) for those with moderate AS (P < .01). Corresponding all-cause mortality rates were 1.05 (95% CI, 0.61-1.81) vs 4.17 (95% CI, 2.42-7.19) for patients with mild AS (P < .01), and 1.60 (95% CI, 0.99-2.57) vs 4.78 (95% CI, 3.32-6.87) for those with moderate AS (P < .01). In multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models, the combination of a 1-year increased adjusted NT-proBNP level and 1.5-fold or greater NT-proBNP level change from baseline was associated with the highest AVE rates in both patients with mild AS (hazard ratio, 8.12; 95% CI, 3.53-18.66; P < .001) and those with moderate AS (hazard ratio, 4.05; 95% CI, 2.84-5.77; P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

The findings of this study suggest that normal NT-proBNP concentrations at 1-year follow-up are associated with low AVE and all-cause mortality rates in patients with asymptomatic nonsevere AS. Conversely, an increased 1-year NT-proBNP level combined with a 50% or greater increase from baseline may be associated with high AVE rates.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00092677.

Incident atrial fibrillation and heart failure in treated hypertensive patients with left ventricular hypertrophy. The LIFE Study

Aim: The present study investigated the appearance and severity of atrial fibrillation (AF) and heart failure (HF) in 8,702 hypertensive patients with left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) receiving antihypertensive treatment in a prospective trial. Methods: Patients who had a history of AF or HF were not included, and the participants had sinus rhythm when they were randomly allocated to blinded study medication. Endpoints were adjudicated. Results: Incident AF occurred in 679 patients (7.8%) and HF in 246 patients (2.8%) during 4.7 ± 1.1 years mean follow-up. Incident AF was associated with a > 4-fold increased risk of developing subsequent HF [hazards ratios (HRs) = 4.7; 95% confidence intervals (CIs), 3.1–7.0; P < 0.001] in multivariable Cox analyses adjusting for age, sex, race, randomized treatment, standard cardiovascular risk factors and incident myocardial infarction. The development of HF as a time-dependent variable was associated with a multivariable-adjusted 3-fold increase of the primary study endpoint (HRs = 3.11; 95% CIs, 1.52–6.39; P < 0.001) which was a composite of myocardial infarction, stroke or cardiovascular death. Incident HF was associated with a > 3-fold increased risk of developing subsequent AF (HRs = 3.3; 95% CIs, 2.3–4.9; P < 0.001). This development of AF was associated with a > 2-fold increase of the composite primary study endpoint in multivariable Cox analysis (HRs = 2.26; 95% CIs, 1.09–4.67; P = 0.028). Conclusions: Incident atrial fibrillation and heart failure are associated with increased risk of the other in treated hypertensive patients with left ventricular hypertrophy. Such high-risk hypertensive patients who subsequently develop both atrial fibrillation and heart failure have particular high risk of composite myocardial infarction, stroke or cardiovascular death (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT00338260).

Association of Low Plasma Transthyretin Concentration With Risk of Heart Failure in the General Population

Importance

Several lines of evidence support low plasma transthyretin concentration as an in vivo biomarker of transthyretin tetramer instability, a prerequisite for the development of both wild-type transthyretin cardiac amyloidosis (ATTRwt) and hereditary transthyretin cardiac amyloidosis (ATTRm). Both ATTRm and ATTRwt cardiac amyloidosis may manifest as heart failure (HF). However, whether low plasma transthyretin concentration confers increased risk of incident HF in the general population is unknown.

Objective

To evaluate whether low plasma transthyretin concentration is associated with incident HF in the general population.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This study included data from 2 similar prospective cohort studies of the Danish general population, the Copenhagen General Population Study (CGPS; n = 9582) and the Copenhagen City Heart Study (CCHS; n = 7385). Using these data, first, whether low concentration of plasma transthyretin was associated with increased risk of incident HF was tested. Second, whether genetic variants in TTR associated with increasing tetramer instability were associated with lower transthyretin concentration and with higher risk of HF was tested. Data were collected from November 2003 to March 2017 in the CGPS and from November 1991 to June 1994 in the CCHS; participants from both studies were observed for survival time end points until March 2017. Data were analyzed from March to June 2019.

Exposures

Transthyretin concentration at or below the 5th percentile, between the 5th and 95th percentile (reference), and greater than the 95th percentile; genetic variants in TTR.

Main Outcome and Measure

Incident HF identified using the Danish National Patient Registry.

Results

Of 9582 individuals in the CGPS, 5077 (53.0%) were women, and the median (interquartile range [IQR]) age was 56 (47-65) years. Of 7385 individuals in the CCHS, 4452 (60.3%) were women, and the median (IQR) age was 59 (46-70) years. During a median (IQR) follow-up of 12.6 (12.3-12.9) years and 21.7 (11.6-23.8) years, 441 individuals (4.6%) in the CGPS and 1122 individuals (15.2%) in the CCHS, respectively, developed HF. Baseline plasma transthyretin concentrations at or below the 5th percentile were associated with incident HF (CGPS: hazard ratio [HR], 1.6; 95% CI, 1.1-2.4; CCHS: HR, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.1-1.7). Risk of HF was highest in men with low transthyretin levels. Compared with p.T139M, a transthyretin-stabilizing variant, TTR genotype was associated with stepwise lower transthyretin concentrations for wild-type TTR (-16.5%), p.G26S (-18.1%), and heterozygotes for other variants (p.V142I, p.H110N, and p.D119N; -30.8%) (P for trend <.001). The corresponding HRs for incident HF were 1.14 (95% CI, 0.57-2.28), 1.29 (95% CI, 0.64-2.61), and 2.04 (95% CI, 0.54-7.67), respectively (P for trend = .04).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this study, lower plasma and genetically determined transthyretin concentrations were associated with a higher risk of incident HF, suggesting a potential mechanistic association between low transthyretin concentration as a marker of tetramer instability and incident HF in the general population.

Frequency and Impact of Hyponatremia on All-Cause Mortality in Patients With Aortic Stenosis

Asymptomatic aortic stenosis (AS) is a frequent condition that may cause hyponatremia due to neurohumoral activation. We examined if hyponatremia heralds poor prognosis in patients with asymptomatic AS, and whether AS in itself is associated with increased risk of hyponatremia. The study question was investigated in 1,677 individuals that had and annual plasma sodium measurements in the SEAS (Simvastatin and Ezetimibe in AS) trial; 1,873 asymptomatic patients with mild-moderate AS (maximal transaortic velocity 2.5 to 4.0 m/s) randomized to simvastatin/ezetimibe combination versus placebo. All-cause mortality was the primary endpoint and incident hyponatremia (P-Na⁺ <137 mmol/L) a secondary outcome. At baseline, 4% (n = 67) had hyponatremia. After a median follow-up of 4.3 (interquartile range 4.1 to 4.6) years, 140 (9%) of those with initial normonatremia had developed hyponatremia, and 174 (10%) had died. In multiple regression Cox models, both baseline hyponatremia (hazard ratio [HR] 2.1, [95% confidence interval 1.1 to 3.8]) and incident hyponatremia (HR 1.9, [95% confidence interval 1.0 to 3.4], both p ≤ .03) was associated with higher all-cause mortality as compared with normonatremia. This association persisted after adjustment for diuretics as a time-varying covariate. Higher N-terminal pro b-type natriuretic peptide levels and lower sodium levels at baseline was associated with higher risk of incident hyponatremia. Conversely, assignment to simvastatin/ezetimibe protected against incident hyponatremia. In conclusion, both prevalent and incident hyponatremia associate with increased mortality in patients with AS. The prevalence of hyponatremia is around 4% and the incidence about 2% per year, which is comparable to that of older adults without AS.

Prognostic impact of ventilation-perfusion defects and pulmonary diffusing capacity after single lung transplantation

BACKGROUND

Ventilation-perfusion (VQ) scintigraphy and lung function testing are often used to assess allograft function after single lung transplantation (SLTX). However, it is unknown whether allograft defects on VQ scintigraphy presage all-cause mortality after SLTX.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate whether allograft defects on VQ scintigraphy portend poorer lung function and increased mortality after SLTX.

METHODS

We retrospectively identified 45 consecutive patients in which a VQ scintigraphy was performed as part of the routine workup 12 weeks after SLTX. VQ scintigraphies were scored for matched and mismatched perfusion defects in the allograft. Lung function testing was performed according to established guidelines six months after SLTX. Time to all-cause mortality was the endpoint.

RESULTS

19 (42%) patients had matched VQ defects. After a median follow-up of 4.1 (IQR 1.5-7.9) years since SLTX, 35 (78%) had died. Those with matched defects in the allograft had lower diffusing capacity (mean 42 [SD 14] versus mean 54 [SD 18] % of predicted, p < .05) and increased mortality (univariable HR 2.06, 95% CI: 1.05-4.06, p = .04). However, in multivariate analysis, only lower post-transplantation diffusing capacity remained associated with mortality (HR 1.08, 95% CI: 1.02-1.30 per % lower diffusing capacity of predicted, p = .003).

CONCLUSION

In SLTX patients, a lower diffusing capacity appeared to explain the increased mortality among those with matched VQ defects in the allograft.

Relation of Lipid-Lowering Therapy to Need for Aortic Valve Replacement in Patients With Asymptomatic Mild to Moderate Aortic Stenosis

In this study, we aimed to determine if pretreatment low-density lipoprotein (LDL) levels and aortic stenosis (AS) severity alter the efficacy of lipid-lowering therapy on reducing aortic valve replacement (AVR). We used 1,687 patients with asymptomatic mild-to-moderate AS, who were randomly assigned (1:1) to 40/10 mg simvastatin/ezetimibe combination versus. placebo in the simvastatin and ezetimibe in aortic stenosis (SEAS) trial. Pretreatment LDL levels (>4 mmol/L) and peak aortic jet velocity (3 m/s) were used to partition study participants into 4 groups, which were followed for a primary endpoint of AVR. Cox regression with tests for interaction was used to study the effect of randomized treatment in each subgroup. During a median follow-up of 4.3 years (IQR 4.2 to 4.7 years; total 7,396 patient-years of follow-up), 478 (28%) patients underwent AVR and 146 (9%) died. A significant risk dependency was detected between simvastatin/ezetimibe combination, LDL levels and mild versus moderate AS on rates of AVR (p = 0.01 for interaction). In stratified analyses, randomized treatment, therefore, reduced the rate of AVR in patients with LDL levels >4 mmol and mild AS at baseline (HR 0.4; 95% CI: 0.2 to 0.9). There was no detectable effect of randomized treatment on the need for AVR in the 3 other participants subgroups. We conclude, that in a secondary analysis from a prospective randomized clinical trial, treatment with simvastatin/ezetimibe combination reduced the need for AVR in a subset of patients with mild AS and high pretreatment LDL levels (Unique identifier on clinicaltrials.gov: NCT00092677).

P3779NT-proBNP adds incremental predictive information on incident atrial fibrillation in patients with asymptomatic aortic stenosis

Background

Incident atrial fibrillation (AF) marks an adverse shift in the prognosis of patients with aortic stenosis (AS). Identifying risk factors for AF is therefore of paramount importance for timely intervention in patients with AS. In patients without AS, brain natriuretic peptides (BNP) is a well-established biomarker for left ventricular pressure overload on the pathway to heart failure and atrial fibrillation. However, a potential role of NT-proBNP to predict risk of new-onset AF in asymptomatic patients with mild to moderate AS is not well studied.

Methods

We included 1,434 patients with mild to moderate AS from the SEAS Study (Simvastatin and Ezetimibe in Aortic Stenosis) without AF or clinically overt heart failure at baseline. The primary endpoint for this substudy was time to incident AF, as determined by the first annual in-study 12-lead ECG with AF. Multivariable Cox model were adjusted for other important predictors of incident AF as selected by Bayesian statistics. Fine and Gray competing risk regression was used to evaluate the influence of all-cause mortality on selected predictor variables of incident AF.

Results

During a median follow-up of 4.3 years (range 0.1–6.9 years), incident AF occurred in 114 (6.1%) patients (13.8 per 1,000 person-years of follow-up), who at baseline were older (69±10 vs. 67±10 years, p<0.001), had larger systolic left atrial diameter (46±24 vs. 34±18 mm, p<0.001) and higher NT-proBNP level (286 [132; 613] vs. 154 [82; 297] pg/ml, p<0.001); but same left ventricular ejection fraction (66±6 mm vs. 67±6, p=0.4). In multivariable Cox regression, adjusted for age, circumferential end-systolic stress, left atrial volume and ECG PR interval, Ln(NT-proBNP) was associated with higher risk of new-onset AF (HR: 1.9 [95% CI: 1.6–2.3], p<0.001). Similar results were found when using Fine and Gray estimates with all-cause mortality (HR: 2.0 [95% CI: 1.7–2.4], p<0.001 (Figure, panel A). NT-proBNP level added incremental predictive information on incident AF over the other important, as selected by Bayesian statistics, predictor variables (C-index 0.81, p<0.001, Figure, panel B). There was no interaction with aortic valve area (p>0.05).

Figure 1

Conclusions

In patients with asymptomatic aortic stenosis and sinus rhythm at baseline, NT-proBNP levels were significantly higher in patients who subsequently developed AF. NT-proBNP significantly improved prognostic information of incident AF over other important predictor variables. This supports the notion that incident AF is a marker of left ventricular pressure overload and possibly a novel marker of timely intervention with aortic valve replacement.

P3729The left atrial appendage closure by surgery-2 randomized trial

Background

Since the left atrium appendage (LAA) is the predilection site for clot formation in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), closure of the LAA during surgery (LAACS) is often performed but not yet demonstrated to protect against stroke. The recent LAACS trial found that LAA closure protected from strokes and silent brain damages on a moderate (n=187) number of patients. However, results based solely on strokes and cerebral transitory ischemic attacks (TIA) was not significant (18% events in the control group compared to 6% in patients where LAA was closed (p=0.07). Furthermore, incomplete closure of the LAA is of concern, with an increased relative risk for stroke (10–25%).

Purpose

Determine if LAA closure added to planned open heart surgery protects against post-operative major stroke and minor stroke.

Methods

Adults scheduled for open-heart surgery who sign informed consent will be included regardless of known AF, provided LAA closure is not previously planned. LAACS-2 is an open, parallel, international multi-center study where patients will be randomized to closure of the LAA (with clip or staple), in addition to planned open-heart surgery. The LAA will remain open in the control group. Randomization will be stratified according to ongoing or expected use of anti-coagulant medication following surgery and classified as coronary artery bypass surgery (CABG) alone, mitral valve surgery or other. The primary endpoint is stroke or TIA occurring over at least two years following surgery. Secondary endpoints are: Total mortality and a combination of stroke, TIA or image of recent cerebral infarction in clinical settings demonstrated post-operatively, until the end follow-up. Occurrence of AF during follow-up will be assessed with prolonged (up to several weeks) monitoring with a three-lead compact sensor.

Studies on percutaneous coronary intervention and CABG, estimate a 3.7% pooled incidence of stroke in the first three years following coronary by-pass operations. Using these estimates and those from the previous LAACS study (3.2% strokes on patients with closed LAA vs 11.3% in the control group, p=0.07), we estimate that LAA closure can be demonstrated to protect from strokes, with a significance level of 0.05 and a 90% power, including 1200–1400 patients in an event-driven study. Expecting a cross-over of 10–20%, we plan to enroll 2000 adults. According to the a priori power-calculations, the LAACS-2 trial is powered: 1) to determine if randomization to closure of the LAA in conjunction with planned open-heart surgery, protects patients from post-operative clinical strokes; and 2) if there is an increased thrombogenic effect of incomplete closure or excessive pouch, since such harm can be identified by including between 359 and 1455 patients.

Perspective

If the LAACS procedure in conjunction with planned open-heart surgery protects against future stroke it should be included in future guidelines.

Acknowledgement/Funding

Innovation Fund Denmark; NovoNordisk Foundation; Ib Mogens Christiansen; Bispebjerg-Frederiksberg Research Fund

P3835Improvement of myocardial energetic efficiency during treatment in hypertensive patients: the life study

Background

Myocardial energetic efficiency (MEE) per unit of left ventricular (LV) mass significantly predicts composite of cardiovascular (CV) events in treated hypertensive patients and specifically heart failure in an event-free population-based cohort with normal ejection fraction, independently of LV hypertrophy (LVH).

Purpose

To investigate whether MEEi changes over time in treated hypertensive patients, and whether different treatments have different effects.

Methods

From the Losartan Intervention For Endpoint study (LIFE Echo Sub-study) we selected 744 hypertensive patients (age 66±7 years; 45% women) with LVH at ECG, without atrial fibrillation, previous or incident myocardial infarction and with normal echocardiographic ejection fraction (>50%). MEE was estimated as the ratio of stroke work to the “double” product of heart rate times systolic blood pressure (BP), simplified as the ratio of stroke volume to heart rate, as previously reported. MEE was normalized for LVM (MEEi) and analyzed in quartiles at baseline and at the end treatment, according to an “intention-to-treat” protocol.

Results

Age and proportion of women were not significantly different from the highest to the lowest quartiles (from 65±7 to 66±7 years, p for trend=0.352; from 45% to 42%, p=0.946, respectively), whereas diastolic blood pressure (from 97±8 to 100±9 mmHg, p=0.006), prevalence of obesity (from 14 to 31%, p=0.001) and diabetes (from 4 to 14%, 0.004) progressively increased. Prevalence of concentric LV geometry and echocardiographic LVH also progressively increased from the highest to the lowest quartile (from 14 to 70%, and 61 to 90%, both p<0.0001). MEEi increased over time (p<0.007), independently of initial diastolic BP, diabetes and obesity, significantly more in patients treated with atenolol than with losartan (p<0.0001) (Figure), due to both increased stroke volume and decreased heart rate (both p<0.0001).

Figure 1

Conclusions

In a randomized clinical study, MEEi improves with anti-hypertensive therapy. Improvement is more evident in patients with atenolol than with losartan-based treatment, possibly providing pathophysiologic explanation of the comparable performance in prevention of ischemic heart disease previously reported in the LIFE study.

Prevalence and prognosis of ischaemic and non-ischaemic myocardial fibrosis in older adults

Aims

Non-ischaemic cardiomyopathies (NICM) can cause heart failure and death. Cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) detects myocardial scar/fibrosis associated with myocardial infarction (MI) and NICM with late gadolinium enhancement (LGE). The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence and prognosis of ischaemic and non-ischaemic myocardial fibrosis in a community-based sample of older adults.

Methods and results

The ICELAND-MI cohort, a substudy of the Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility Reykjavik (AGES-Reykjavik) study, provided a well-characterized population of 900 subjects after excluding subjects with pre-existing heart failure. Late gadolinium enhancement CMR divided subjects into four groups: MI (n = 211), major (n = 54) non-ischaemic fibrosis (well-established, classic patterns, associated with myocarditis, infiltrative cardiomyopathies, or pathological hypertrophy), minor (n = 238) non-ischaemic fibrosis (remaining localized patterns not meeting major criteria), and a no LGE (n = 397) reference group. The primary outcome was time to death or first heart failure hospitalization. During a median follow-up of 5.8 years, 192 composite events occurred (115 deaths and 77 hospitalizations for incident heart failure). After inverse probability weighting, major non-ischaemic fibrosis [hazard ratio (HR) 3.2, P < 0.001] remained independently associated with the primary endpoint, while MI (HR 1.4, P = 0.10) and minor non-ischaemic LGE (HR 1.2, P = 0.39) did not. Major non-ischaemic fibrosis was associated with a poorer outcome than MI (HR = 2.3, P = 0.001) in the adjusted analysis.

Conclusion

Major non-ischaemic patterns of myocardial fibrosis portended worse prognosis than no fibrosis/scar in an older community-based cohort. Traditional risk factors largely accounted for the effect of MI and minor non-ischaemic LGE.

New-onset of postoperative atrial fibrillation is likely to recur in the absence of other triggers

Background

Incident atrial fibrillation (AF) is reported in 10%-65% of patients without previous AF diagnosis after open heart surgery. The risk of late AF recurrence after a postoperative AF onset is unclear, and it is controversial whether AF limited to the postoperative period should elicit oral anticoagulation (OAC) therapy. The primary objective of this study was to evaluate the long-term recurrence of AF in patients developing new-onset peri-procedural AF.

Patients and methods

Patients (n=189) with available baseline and follow-up data included in Left Atrial Appendage Closure with Surgery trial were coded for known AF at baseline and for postoperative first-time AF diagnosis. AF occurrence was classified as follows: peri-procedural ≤7 days postoperatively, early >7 days but ≤3 months and late >3 months. Patients with no AF recurrence registered during follow-up were invited to undergo Holter monitoring.

Results

A total of 163 (86.2%) patients had no history of AF. Among these, 80 (49.1%) developed new-onset peri-procedural AF. After a mean follow-up of 3.7±1.6 years, late AF occurred in 35 of the 80 (43.8%) patients who developed peri-procedural AF and in 6 additional patients (7.2%) who remained in sinus rhythm until discharge (hazard ratio [HR] 9.3, 95% CI 3.8-22.4, p<0.001). Patients with peri-procedural AF and early AF had 12.24 times higher risk of late AF (95% CI 4.76-31.45, p<0.001) as compared to the group with no postoperative AF.

Conclusion

New-onset of AF after open heart surgery has a high rate of recurrence and should not be regarded as a self-limiting phenomenon secondary to surgery.

Fibrosis as measured by the biomarker, tissue inhibitor metalloproteinase-1, predicts mortality in Age Gene Environment Susceptibility-Reykjavik (AGES-Reykjavik) Study

Background

Fibrosis is a key pathological process in many chronic inflammatory disease states.

Aims

We hypothesized that tissue inhibitor metalloproteinase-1 and matrix metalloproteinase-9 (TIMP-1 and MMP-9), biomarkers of fibrosis, would predict all-cause mortality and we assessed the incremental value of these biomarkers when adjusting for clinical and other biomarkers.

Methods

The cohort included 5511 community-dwelling participants in the AGES-Reykjavik Study. The baseline Cox proportional hazards regression model was based on the Framingham Risk Score variables; we added TIMP-1, MMP-9, serum high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). The primary outcome was all-cause 10-year mortality. Cause of death was categorized as cardiovascular death (CVD), cancer death, and other causes.

Results

Participants averaged 76 years and 43% were male. Ten-year mortality was 41% (2263 deaths). Of these, 915 (16.6%) died of cardiovascular disease (CVD), 543 (9.9%) with cancer, and 805 (14.6%) from other causes. For 10-year mortality, age was the strongest predictor (log likelihood χ2 = 798.7, P < 0.0001), followed by TIMP-1 (χ2 = 125.2, P < 0.0001), female gender, current smoker, diabetes mellitus, total cholesterol, eGFR (χ2 16.7, P < 0.0001), body mass index, and hsCRP (χ2 11.3, P = 0.0008) in that order. TIMP-1 and hsCRP had the highest continuous net reclassification improvement over the baseline model for 5-year survival [net reclassification index (NRI) 0.28 and 0.19, respectively, both P < 0.0001] and for 10-year survival (NRI 0.19 and 0.11, respectively, both statistically significant).

Conclusion

TIMP-1 is the strongest predictor of all-cause mortality after age. The metabolic pathways regulating extracellular matrix homeostasis and fibrogenic processes appear pathologically relevant and are prognostically important.

Adding left atrial appendage closure to open heart surgery provides protection from ischemic brain injury six years after surgery independently of atrial fibrillation history: the LAACS randomized study

Background

Open heart surgery is associated with high occurrence of atrial fibrillation (AF), subsequently increasing the risk of post-operative ischemic stroke. Concomitant with open heart surgery, a cardiac ablation procedure is commonly performed in patients with known AF, often followed by left atrial appendage closure with surgery (LAACS). However, the protective effect of LAACS on the risk of cerebral ischemia following cardiac surgery remains controversial. We have studied whether LAACS in addition to open heart surgery protects against post-operative ischemic brain injury regardless of a previous AF diagnosis.

Methods

One hundred eighty-seven patients scheduled for open heart surgery were enrolled in a prospective, open-label clinical trial and randomized to concomitant LAACS vs. standard care. Randomization was stratified by usage of oral anticoagulation (OAC) planned to last at least 3 months after surgery. The primary endpoint was a composite of post-operative symptomatic ischemic stroke, transient ischemic attack or imaging findings of silent cerebral ischemic (SCI) lesions.

Results

During a mean follow-up of 3.7 years, 14 (16%) primary events occurred among patients receiving standard surgery vs. 5 (5%) in the group randomized to additional LAACS (hazard ratio 0.3; 95% CI: 0.1–0.8, p = 0.02). In per protocol analysis (n = 141), 14 (18%) primary events occurred in the control group vs. 4 (6%) in the LAACS group (hazard ratio 0.3; 95% CI: 0.1–1.0, p = 0.05).

Conclusions

In a real-world setting, LAACS in addition to elective open-heart surgery was associated with lower risk of post-operative ischemic brain injury. The protective effect was not conditional on AF/OAC status at baseline.

Trial registration

LAACS study, clinicaltrials.gov NCT02378116, March 4th 2015, retrospectively registered.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s13019-018-0740-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Effect of simvastatin and ezetimibe on suPAR levels and outcomes

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) is an inflammatory marker associated with cardiovascular disease. Statins lower both low-density lipoprotein (LDL)-cholesterol and C-reactive protein (CRP), resulting in improved outcomes. However, whether lipid-lowering therapy also lowers suPAR levels is unknown.

METHODS

We investigated whether treatment with Simvastatin 40 mg and Ezetimibe 10 mg lowered plasma suPAR levels in 1838 patients with mild-moderate, asymptomatic aortic stenosis, included in the Simvastatin and Ezetimibe in Aortic Stenosis (SEAS) study, using a pattern mixture model. A 1-year Cox analysis, adjusted for established cardiovascular risk factors, allocation to study treatment, peak aortic valve velocity and baseline suPAR, was performed to evaluate relationships between change in suPAR with all-cause mortality and the composite endpoint of major cardiovascular events (MCE) composed of ischemic cardiovascular events (ICE) and aortic valve related events (AVE).

RESULTS

After 4.3 years of follow-up, suPAR levels had increased by 9.2% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 7.0%-11.5%) in the placebo group, but only by 4.1% (1.9%-6.2%) in the group with lipid-lowering treatment (p<0.001). In a multivariate 1-year analysis, 1-year suPAR was strongly associated with all-cause mortality, hazard ratio (HR) = 2.05 (1.17-3.61); MCE 1.40 (1.01-1.92); and AVE 1.42 (1.02-1.99) (all p<0.042) for each doubling of suPAR; but was not associated with ICE.

CONCLUSIONS

Simvastatin and Ezetimibe treatment impeded the progression of the time-related increase in plasma suPAR levels. Year-1 suPAR was associated with all-cause mortality, MCE, and AVE irrespective of baseline levels (SEAS study: NCT00092677).

Effect Modifications of Lipid-Lowering Therapy on Progression of Aortic Stenosis (from the Simvastatin and Ezetimibe in Aortic Stenosis [SEAS] Study)

Observational studies indicate that low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol acts as a primary contributor to an active process leading to aortic stenosis (AS) development. However, randomized clinical trials have failed to demonstrate an effect of lipid lowering on impeding AS progression. This study explored if pretreatment LDL levels and AS severity altered the efficacy of lipid-lowering therapy. The study goal was evaluated in the analysis of surviving patients with baseline data in the Simvastatin and Ezetimibe in Aortic Stenosis (SEAS) trial of 1,873 asymptomatic patients with mild-to-moderate AS. Serially measured peak aortic jet velocity was the primary effect estimate. Linear mixed model analysis adjusted by baseline peak jet velocity and pretreatment LDL levels was used to assess effect modifications of treatment. Data were available in 1,579 (84%) patients. In adjusted analyses, lower baseline peak aortic jet velocity and higher pretreatment LDL levels increased the effect of randomized treatment (p = 0.04 for interaction). As such, treatment impeded progression of AS in the highest quartile of LDL among patients with mild AS at baseline (0.06 m/s per year slower progression vs placebo in peak aortic jet velocity, 95% confidence interval 0.01 to 0.11, p = 0.03), but not in the 3 other quartiles of LDL. Conversely, among patients with moderate AS, there was no detectable effect of treatment in any of the pretreatment LDL quartiles (all p ≥0.14). In conclusion, in a non-prespecified post hoc analysis, the efficacy of lipid-lowering therapy on impeding AS progression increased with higher pretreatment LDL and lower peak aortic jet velocity (SEAS study: NCT00092677).

Fully quantitative pixel-wise analysis of cardiovascular magnetic resonance perfusion improves discrimination of dark rim artifact from perfusion defects associated with epicardial coronary stenosis

BACKGROUND

Dark rim artifacts in first-pass cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) perfusion images can mimic perfusion defects and affect diagnostic accuracy for coronary artery disease (CAD). We evaluated whether quantitative myocardial blood flow (MBF) can differentiate dark rim artifacts from true perfusion defects in CMR perfusion.

METHODS

Regadenoson perfusion CMR was performed at 1.5 T in 76 patients. Significant CAD was defined by quantitative invasive coronary angiography (QCA) ≥ 50% diameter stenosis. Non-significant CAD (NonCAD) was defined as stenosis by QCA < 50% diameter stenosis or computed tomographic coronary angiography (CTA) < 30% in all major epicardial arteries. Dark rim artifacts had study specific and guideline-based definitions for comparison purposes. MBF was quantified at the pixel-level and sector-level.

RESULTS

In a NonCAD subgroup with dark rim artifacts, stress MBF was lower in the subendocardial than midmyocardial and epicardial layers (2.17 ± 0.61 vs. 3.06 ± 0.75 vs. 3.24 ± 0.80 mL/min/g, both p < 0.001) and was also 30% lower than in remote regions (2.17 ± 0.61 vs. 2.83 ± 0.67 mL/min/g, p < 0.001). However, subendocardial stress MBF in dark rim artifacts was 37-56% higher than in true perfusion defects (2.17 ± 0.61 vs. 0.95 ± 0.43 mL/min/g, p < 0.001). Absolute stress MBF differentiated CAD from NonCAD with an accuracy ranging from 86 to 89% (all p < 0.001) using pixel-level analyses. Similar results were seen at a sector level.

CONCLUSION

Quantitative stress MBF is lower in dark rim artifacts than remote myocardium but significantly higher than in true perfusion defects. If confirmed in larger series, this approach may aid the interpretation of clinical stress perfusion exams.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00027170 ; first posted 11/28/2001; updated 11/27/2017.

Diagnostic Performance of Fully Automated Pixel-Wise Quantitative Myocardial Perfusion Imaging by Cardiovascular Magnetic Resonance

OBJECTIVES

The authors developed a fully automated framework to quantify myocardial blood flow (MBF) from contrast-enhanced cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) perfusion imaging and evaluated its diagnostic performance in patients.

BACKGROUND

Fully quantitative CMR perfusion pixel maps were previously validated with microsphere MBF measurements and showed potential in clinical applications, but the methods required laborious manual processes and were excessively time-consuming.

METHODS

CMR perfusion imaging was performed on 80 patients with known or suspected coronary artery disease (CAD) and 17 healthy volunteers. Significant CAD was defined by quantitative coronary angiography (QCA) as ≥70% stenosis. Nonsignificant CAD was defined by: 1) QCA as <70% stenosis; or 2) coronary computed tomography angiography as <30% stenosis and a calcium score of 0 in all vessels. Automatically generated MBF maps were compared with manual quantification on healthy volunteers. Diagnostic performance of the automated MBF pixel maps was analyzed on patients using absolute MBF, myocardial perfusion reserve (MPR), and relative measurements of MBF and MPR.

RESULTS

The correlation between automated and manual quantification was excellent (r = 0.96). Stress MBF and MPR in the ischemic zone were lower than those in the remote myocardium in patients with significant CAD (both p < 0.001). Stress MBF and MPR in the remote zone of the patients were lower than those in the normal volunteers (both p < 0.001). All quantitative metrics had good area under the curve (0.864 to 0.926), sensitivity (82.9% to 91.4%), and specificity (75.6% to 91.1%) on per-patient analysis. On a per-vessel analysis of the quantitative metrics, area under the curve (0.837 to 0.864), sensitivity (75.0% to 82.7%), and specificity (71.8% to 80.9%) were good.

CONCLUSIONS

Fully quantitative CMR MBF pixel maps can be generated automatically, and the results agree well with manual quantification. These methods can discriminate regional perfusion variations and have high diagnostic performance for detecting significant CAD. (Technical Development of Cardiovascular Magnetic Resonance Imaging; NCT00027170)

Antihypertensive Treatment With β-Blockade in Patients With Asymptomatic Aortic Stenosis and Association With Cardiovascular Events

Background

Patients with aortic stenosis (AS) often have concomitant hypertension. Antihypertensive treatment with a β‐blocker (Bbl) is frequently avoided because of fear of depression of left ventricular function. However, it remains unclear whether antihypertensive treatment with a Bbl is associated with increased risk of cardiovascular events in patients with asymptomatic mild to moderate AS.

Methods and Results

We did a post hoc analysis of 1873 asymptomatic patients with mild to moderate AS and preserved left ventricular ejection fraction in the SEAS (Simvastatin and Ezetimibe in Aortic Stenosis) study. Propensity‐matched Cox regression and competing risk analyses were used to assess risk ratios for all‐cause mortality, sudden cardiac death, and cardiovascular death. A total of 932 (50%) patients received Bbl at baseline. During a median follow‐up of 4.3±0.9 years, 545 underwent aortic valve replacement, and 205 died; of those, 101 were cardiovascular deaths, including 40 sudden cardiovascular deaths. In adjusted analyses, Bbl use was associated with lower risk of all‐cause mortality (hazard ratio 0.5, 95% confidence interval 0.3‐0.7, P<0.001), cardiovascular death (hazard ratio 0.4, 95% confidence interval 0.2‐0.7, P<0.001), and sudden cardiac death (hazard ratio 0.2, 95% confidence interval 0.1‐0.6, P=0.004). This was confirmed in competing risk analyses (all P<0.004). No interaction was detected with AS severity (all P>0.1).

Conclusions

In post hoc analyses Bbl therapy did not increase the risk of all‐cause mortality, sudden cardiac death, or cardiovascular death in patients with asymptomatic mild to moderate AS. A prospective study may be warranted to determine if Bbl therapy is in fact beneficial.

Clinical Trial Registration

URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00092677.

Early Gadolinium Enhancement for Determination of Area at Risk: A Preclinical Validation Study

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to determine whether early gadolinium enhancement (EGE) by cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) in a canine model of reperfused myocardial infarction depicts the area at risk (AAR) as determined by microsphere blood flow analysis.

BACKGROUND

It remains controversial whether only the irreversibly injured myocardium enhances when CMR is performed in the setting of acute myocardial infarction. Recently, EGE has been proposed as a measure of the AAR in acute myocardial infarction because it correlates well with T2-weighted imaging of the AAR, but this still requires pathological validation.

METHODS

Eleven dogs underwent 2 h of coronary artery occlusion and 48 h of reperfusion before imaging at 1.5-T. EGE imaging was performed 3 min after contrast administration with coverage of the entire left ventricle. Late gadolinium enhancement imaging was performed between 10 and 15 min after contrast injection. AAR was defined as myocardium with blood flow <2 SD from remote myocardium determined by microspheres during occlusion. The size of infarction was determined with triphenyltetrazolium chloride.

RESULTS

There was no significant difference in the size of enhancement by EGE compared with the size of AAR by microspheres (44.1 ± 15.8% vs. 42.7 ± 9.2%; p = 0.61), with good correlation (r = 0.88; p < 0.001) and good agreement by Bland-Altman analysis (mean bias 1.4 ± 17.4%). There was no difference in the size of enhancement by EGE compared with enhancement on native T1 and T2 maps. The size of EGE was significantly greater than the infarct by triphenyltetrazolium chloride (44.1 ± 15.8% vs. 20.7 ± 14.4%; p < 0.001) and late gadolinium enhancement (44.1 ± 15.8% vs. 23.5 ± 12.7%; p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

At 3 min post-contrast, EGE correlated well with the AAR by microspheres and CMR and was greater than infarct size. Thus, EGE enhances both reversibly and irreversibly injured myocardium.

SALTIRE-RAAVE: targeting calcific aortic valve disease LDL-density-radius theory

SALTIRE and RAAVE were the first two studies to evaluate the use of statin therapy for impeding calcific aortic valve disease (CAVD). This review presents the findings of low-density lipoprotein (LDL)-density-radius theory as tested using the combined results from the SALTIRE and RAAVE studies. Patients who received statin therapy had a greater degree of LDL cholesterol lowering, seen as the % change in LDL (47 vs 2%, p = 0.012), which in itself was significantly associated with a lesser change in aortic valve area (AVA; p < 0.001 and R(2) = 0.27). The percent change in the AVA for the treated patients was 5% and 15% for the nontreated patients (p = 0.579 and R(2) = 0.03). In summary, these published findings suggest that when applying the LDL-density-radius theory, which combines the cellular biology and the hemodynamics as defined by the continuity equation for AVA, there may be a role for lipid-lowering therapy in contemporary patients with calcific aortic valve disease (CAVD).

Effect of Randomized Lipid Lowering With Simvastatin and Ezetimibe on Cataract Development (from the Simvastatin and Ezetimibe in Aortic Stenosis Study)

Recent American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guidelines on statin initiation on the basis of total atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk argue that the preventive effect of statins on cardiovascular events outweigh the side effects, although this is controversial. Studies indicate a possible effect of statin therapy on reducing risk of lens opacities. However, the results are conflicting. The Simvastatin and Ezetimibe in Aortic Stenosis study (NCT00092677) enrolled 1,873 patients with asymptomatic aortic stenosis and no history of diabetes, coronary heart disease, or other serious co-morbidities were randomized (1:1) to double-blind 40 mg simvastatin plus 10 mg ezetimibe versus placebo. The primary end point in this substudy was incident cataract. Univariate and multivariate Cox models were used to analyze: (1) if the active treatment reduced the risk of the primary end point and (2) if time-varying low-density lipoproteins (LDL) cholesterol lowering (annually assessed) was associated with less incident cataract per se. During an average follow-up of 4.3 years, 65 patients (3.5%) developed cataract. Mean age at baseline was 68 years and 39% were women. In Cox multivariate analysis adjusted for age, gender, prednisolone treatment, smoking, baseline LDL cholesterol and high sensitivity C-reactive protein; simvastatin plus ezetimibe versus placebo was associated with 44% lower risk of cataract development (hazard ratio 0.56, 95% confidence interval 0.33 to 0.96, p = 0.034). In a parallel analysis substituting time-varying LDL-cholesterol with randomized treatment, lower intreatment LDL-cholesterol was in itself associated with lower risk of incident cataract (hazard ratio 0.78 per 1 mmol/ml lower total cholesterol, 95% confidence interval 0.64 to 0.93, p = 0.008). In conclusion, randomized treatment with simvastatin plus ezetimibe was associated with a 44% lower risk of incident cataract development. This effect should perhaps be considered in the risk-benefit ratio of statin treatment.

Mechanisms for overestimating acute myocardial infarct size with gadolinium-enhanced cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging in humans: a quantitative and kinetic study

Aims

It remains controversial whether cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging with gadolinium only enhances acutely infarcted or also salvaged myocardium. We hypothesized that enhancement of salvaged myocardium may be due to altered extracellular volume (ECV) and contrast kinetics compared with normal and infarcted myocardium. If so, these mechanisms could contribute to overestimation of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) size.

Methods and results

Imaging was performed at 1.5T ≤ 7 days after AMI with serial T₁ mapping and volumetric early (5 min post-contrast) and late (20 min post-contrast) gadolinium enhancement imaging. Infarcts were classified as transmural (>75% transmural extent) or non-transmural. Patients with non-transmural infarctions (n = 15) had shorter duration of symptoms before reperfusion (P = 0.02), lower peak troponin (P = 0.008), and less microvascular obstruction (P < 0.001) than patients with transmural infarcts (n = 22). The size of enhancement at 5 min was greater than at 20 min (18.7 ± 12.7 vs. 12.1 ± 7.0%, P = 0.003) in non-transmural infarctions, but similar in transmural infarctions (23.0 ± 10.0 vs. 21.9 ± 9.9%, P = 0.21). ECV of salvaged myocardium was greater than normal (39.5 ± 5.8 vs. 24.1 ± 3.1%) but less than infarcted myocardium (50.5 ± 6.0%, both P < 0.001). In kinetic studies of non-transmural infarctions, salvaged and infarcted myocardium had similar T₁ at 4 min but different T₁ at 8–20 min post-contrast.

Conclusion

The extent of gadolinium enhancement in AMI is modulated by ECV and contrast kinetics. Image acquisition too early after contrast administration resulted in overestimation of infarct size in non-transmural infarctions due to enhancement of salvaged myocardium.

Resting heart rate and risk of adverse cardiovascular outcomes in asymptomatic aortic stenosis: the SEAS study

BACKGROUND

An elevated resting heart rate (RHR) may be an early sign of cardiac failure, but its prognostic value during watchful waiting in asymptomatic aortic stenosis (AS) is largely unknown.

METHODS

RHR was determined by annual ECGs in the Simvastatin and Ezetimibe in Aortic Stenosis (SEAS) study of asymptomatic mild-to-moderate AS patients. Primary endpoint in this substudy was major cardiovascular events (MCEs) and secondary outcomes its individual components. Multivariable Cox-models using serially-measured RHR were used to examine the prognostic impact of RHR per se.

RESULTS

1563 patients were followed for a mean of 4.3years (6751 patient-years of follow-up), 553 (35%) MCEs occurred, 10% (n=151) died, including 75 cardiovascular deaths. In multivariable analysis, baseline RHR was independently associated with MCEs (HR 1.1 per 10min(-1) faster, 95% CI: 1.0-1.3) and cardiovascular mortality (HR 1.3 per 10min(-1) faster, 95% CI: 1.0-1.7, both p≤0.03). Updating RHR with annual in-study reexaminations, time-varying RHR was highly associated with excess MCEs (HR 1.1 per 10min(-1) faster, 95% CI: 1.1-1.3) and cardiovascular mortality (HR 1.4 per 10min(-1) faster, 95% CI: 1.2-1.7, both p≤0.006). The association of RHR with MCEs and cardiovascular mortality was not dependent on atrial fibrillation status (both p≥0.06 for interaction).

CONCLUSIONS

RHR is independently associated with MCEs and cardiovascular death in asymptomatic AS (Clinicaltrials.gov; unique identifier NCT00092677).

Usefulness of the electrocardiogram in predicting cardiovascular mortality in asymptomatic adults with aortic stenosis (from the Simvastatin and Ezetimibe in Aortic Stenosis Study)

Hypertension and coronary heart disease are common in aortic stenosis (AS) and may impair prognosis for similar AS severity. Different changes in the electrocardiogram may be reflective of the separate impacts of AS, hypertension, and coronary heart disease, which could lead to enhanced risk stratification in AS. The aim of this study was therefore to examine if combining prognostically relevant electrocardiographic (ECG) findings improves prediction of cardiovascular mortality in asymptomatic AS. All patients with baseline electrocardiograms in the SEAS study were included. The primary end point was cardiovascular death. Backward elimination (p >0.01) identified heart rate, Q waves, and Cornell voltage-duration product as independently associated with cardiovascular death. Multivariate logistic and Cox regression models were used to evaluate if these 3 ECG variables improved prediction of cardiovascular death. In 1,473 patients followed for a mean of 4.3 years (6,362 patient-years of follow-up), 70 cardiovascular deaths (5%) occurred. In multivariate analysis, heart rate (hazard ratio [HR] 1.5 per 11.2 minute(-1) [1 SD], 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.2 to 1.8), sum of Q-wave amplitude (HR 1.3 per 2.0 mm [1 SD], 95% CI 1.1 to 1.6), and Cornell voltage-duration product (HR 1.4 per 763 mm × ms [1 SD], 95% CI 1.2 to 1.7) remained independently associated with cardiovascular death. Combining the prognostic information contained in each of the 3 ECG variables improved integrated discrimination for prediction of cardiovascular death by 2.5%, net reclassification by 14.3%, and area under the curve by 0.06 (all p ≤0.04) beyond other important risk factors. ECG findings add incremental predictive information for cardiovascular mortality in asymptomatic patients with AS.

Coronary microvascular ischemia in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy - a pixel-wise quantitative cardiovascular magnetic resonance perfusion study

BACKGROUND

Microvascular dysfunction in HCM has been associated with adverse clinical outcomes. Advances in quantitative cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) perfusion imaging now allow myocardial blood flow to be quantified at the pixel level. We applied these techniques to investigate the spectrum of microvascular dysfunction in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) and to explore its relationship with fibrosis and wall thickness.

METHODS

CMR perfusion imaging was undertaken during adenosine-induced hyperemia and again at rest in 35 patients together with late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) imaging. Myocardial blood flow (MBF) was quantified on a pixel-by-pixel basis from CMR perfusion images using a Fermi-constrained deconvolution algorithm. Regions-of-interest (ROI) in hypoperfused and hyperemic myocardium were identified from the MBF pixel maps. The myocardium was also divided into 16 AHA segments.

RESULTS

Resting MBF was significantly higher in the endocardium than in the epicardium (mean ± SD: 1.25 ± 0.35 ml/g/min versus 1.20 ± 0.35 ml/g/min, P<0.001), a pattern that reversed with stress (2.00 ± 0.76 ml/g/min versus 2.36 ± 0.83 ml/g/min, P<0.001). ROI analysis revealed 11 (31%) patients with stress MBF lower than resting values (1.05 ± 0.39 ml/g/min versus 1.22 ± 0.36 ml/g/min, P=0.021). There was a significant negative association between hyperemic MBF and wall thickness (β=-0.047 ml/g/min per mm, 95% CI: -0.057 to -0.038, P<0.001) and a significantly lower probability of fibrosis in a segment with increasing hyperemic MBF (odds ratio per ml/g/min: 0.086, 95% CI: 0.078 to 0.095, P=0.003).

CONCLUSIONS

Pixel-wise quantitative CMR perfusion imaging identifies a subgroup of patients with HCM that have localised severe microvascular dysfunction which may give rise to myocardial ischemia.

Stroke in Patients With Aortic Stenosis

Background and Purpose—

There are limited data on risk stratification of stroke in aortic stenosis. This study examined predictors of stroke in aortic stenosis, the prognostic implications of stroke, and how aortic valve replacement (AVR) with or without concomitant coronary artery bypass grafting influenced the predicted outcomes.

Methods—

Patients with mild-to-moderate aortic stenosis enrolled in the Simvastatin and Ezetimibe in Aortic Stenosis (SEAS) study. Diabetes mellitus, known atherosclerotic disease, and oral anticoagulation were exclusion criteria. Ischemic stroke was the primary end point, and poststroke survival a secondary outcome. Cox models treating AVR as a time-varying covariate were adjusted for atrial fibrillation and congestive heart failure, hypertension, age ≥75 years, diabetes mellitus, stroke/transient ischemic attack, vascular disease, age 65–74 years and female sex (CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc) scores.

Results—

One thousand five hundred nine patients were followed for 4.3±0.8 years (6529 patient-years). Rates of stroke were 5.6 versus 21.8 per 1000 patient-years pre- and post-AVR; 429 (28%) underwent AVR and 139 (9%) died. Atrial fibrillation (hazard ratio [HR], 2.7; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.1–6.6), CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score (HR 1.4 per unit; 95% CI, 1.1–1.8), diastolic blood pressure (HR, 1.4 per 10 mm Hg; 95% CI, 1.1–1.8), and AVR with concomitant coronary artery bypass grafting (HR, 3.2; 95% CI, 1.4–7.2, all P ≤0.026) were independently associated with stroke. Incident stroke predicted death (HR, 8.1; 95% CI, 4.7–14.0; P <0.001).

Conclusions—

In patients with aortic stenosis not prescribed oral anticoagulation, atrial fibrillation, AVR with concomitant coronary artery bypass grafting, and CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score were the major predictors of stroke. Incident stroke was strongly associated with mortality.

Clinical Trial Registration—

URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier: NCT00092677.

Risk stratifying asymptomatic aortic stenosis: role of the resting 12-lead ECG

Despite being routinely performed in the clinical follow-up of asymptomatic AS patients, little or no evidence describes the prognostic value of ECG findings in asymptomatic AS populations. This PhD thesis examined the correlates of resting 12-lead ECG variables with echocardiographic measures of AS severity and cardiovascular outcomes in the till date largest cohort (n=1,563) of asymptomatic patients with mild-to-moderate AS. Most importantly, this PhD thesis demonstrated that QRS-duration adds independent predictive value of sudden cardiac death and that the additional presence of ECG LVH/strain for fixed AS severity represents a lethal risk attribute. Finally, ECG abnormalities displayed low/moderate concordance with echocardiographic parameters. This argues that the ECG should be regarded as a separate tool for obtaining prognostically important information. Treatment was not randomized by ECG findings, future studies should therefore examine if and which ECG variables should elicit closer follow-up and/or earlier intervention to improve prognosis in asymptomatic AS populations.

New-onset atrial fibrillation is associated with cardiovascular events leading to death in a first time myocardial infarction population of 89,703 patients with long-term follow-up: a nationwide study

Background

New‐onset atrial fibrillation (AF) is reported to increase the risk of death in myocardial infarction (MI) patients. However, previous studies have reported conflicting results and no data exist to explain the underlying cause of higher death rates in these patients.

Methods and Results

All patients with first acute MI between 1997 and 2009 in Denmark, without prior AF, were identified from Danish nationwide administrative registers. The impact of new‐onset AF on all‐cause mortality, cardiovascular death, fatal/nonfatal stroke, fatal/nonfatal re‐infarction and noncardiovascular death, were analyzed by multiple time‐dependent Cox models and additionally in propensity score matched analysis. In 89 703 patients with an average follow‐up of 5.0±3.5 years event rates were higher in patients developing AF (n=10 708) versus those staying in sinus‐rhythm (n=78 992): all‐cause mortality 173.9 versus 69.4 per 1000 person‐years, cardiovascular death 137.2 versus 50.0 per 1000 person‐years, fatal/nonfatal stroke 19.6/19.9 versus 6.2/5.6 per 1000 person‐years, fatal/nonfatal re‐infarction 29.0/60.7 versus 14.2/37.9 per 1000 person‐years. In time‐dependent multiple Cox analyses, new‐onset AF remained predictive of increased all‐cause mortality (HR: 1.9 [95% CI: 1.8 to 2.0]), cardiovascular death (HR: 2.1 [2.0 to 2.2]), fatal/nonfatal stroke (HR: 2.3 [2.1 to 2.6]/HR: 2.5 [2.2 to 2.7]), fatal/nonfatal re‐infarction (HR: 1.7 [1.6 to 1.8]/HR: 1.8 [1.7 to 1.9]), and non‐ cardiovascular death (HR: 1.4 [1.3 to 1.5]) all P<0.001). Propensity‐score matched analyses yielded nearly identical results (all P<0.001).

Conclusions

New‐onset AF after first‐time MI is associated with increased mortality, which is largely explained by more cardiovascular deaths. Focus on the prognostic impact of post‐infarct AF is warranted.

Left atrial size and function as predictors of new-onset of atrial fibrillation in patients with asymptomatic aortic stenosis: the simvastatin and ezetimibe in aortic stenosis study

BACKGROUND

Left atrial (LA) size and function change with chronically increased left ventricular (LV) filling pressures. It remains unclear whether these variations in LA parameters can predict new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF) in asymptomatic patients with aortic stenosis (AS).

METHODS

Data were obtained in asymptomatic patients with mild-to-moderate AS (2.5 ≤ transaortic Doppler velocity ≤ 4.0m/s), preserved LV ejection fraction (EF), no previous AF, and were enrolled in the Simvastatin and Ezetimibe in Aortic Stenosis study. Peak-aortic velocity, LA(max) volume & LAmin volume were measured by echocardiography. LA conduit (LA(con)) volume was defined as LV stroke volume-LA stroke volume. LA function was expressed as LA-EF (LA(max)-LAmin volume/LA(max)).

RESULTS

In the 1159 patients included, new-onset AF occurred in 71 patients (6.1%) within a mean follow-up of 4.2 ± 0.9 years. Mean age was 66 ± 9.7 years, aortic valve area index 0.6 ± 0.2 cm(2)/m(2), LV mass 99.2 ± 29.7 g/m(2), LA(max) volume 34.6 ± 12.0 mL/m(2), LAmin volume 17.9 ± 9.3 mL/m(2), LA-EF 50 ± 15% and LA(con) volume 45 ± 21 mL/m(2). Baseline LAmin volume predicted new-onset AF in Cox multivariable analysis (HR:2.3 [95%CI:1.3-4.4], P<0.01), and added prognostic information on AF development beyond conventional risk factors (likelihood ratio, P<0.01). In comparison of c-indexes LAmin volume was superior to all other LA measurements. Net reclassification index improved by 15.9% when adding LAmin volume to a model with classic risk factors for AF (P=0.01).

CONCLUSION

LAmin volume independently predicted new-onset AF in patients with asymptomatic AS and was superior to LA-EF, LA(con) and LA(max) volumes and conventional risk factors.