Decline in Cancer Diagnoses during the 'Zero COVID' Policy in Hong Kong: Indirect Spillover Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic

AIMS

Despite a largely successful 'zero COVID' policy in 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted routine cancer services in the city of Hong Kong. The aims of this study were to examine the trends in cancer incidence before and during the COVID-19 pandemic and estimate missed cancer diagnoses.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We used population-based data from the Hong Kong Cancer Registry 1983-2020 to examine the trends of age- and sex-standardised cancer incidence before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. We applied: (i) the annual average percentage change (AAPC) calculated using the Joinpoint regression model and (ii) the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to forecast cancer incidence rates in 2020. Missed cancer diagnoses in 2020 were estimated by comparing forecasted incidence rates to reported rates. A subgroup analysis was conducted by sex, age and cancer site.

RESULTS

The cancer incidence in Hong Kong declined by 4.4% from 2019 to 2020 (male 8.1%; female 1.1%) compared with the long-term AAPC of 0.5% from 2005 to 2019 (95% confidence interval 0.3, 0.7). The gap between the reported and forecasted incidence for 2020 ranged from 5.1 to 5.7% (male 8.5%, 9.8%; female 2.3%, 3.5%). We estimated 1525-1596 missed cancer diagnoses (ARIMA estimate -98, 3148; AAPC 514, 1729) in 2020. Most missed diagnoses were in males (ARIMA 1361 [327, 2394]; AAPC 1401 [1353, 1460]), with an estimated 479-557 missed cases of colorectal cancer (ARIMA 112, 837; AAPC 518, 597) and 256-352 missed cases of prostate cancer (AAPC 231, 280; ARIMA 110, 594).

CONCLUSION

The incidence of new cancer diagnoses declined in 2020 contrary to the long-term increase over the previous decades. Significantly lower diagnoses than expected were observed in males, particularly for colorectal and prostate cancers. Fewer reported cancer cases indicate missed diagnoses and could lead to delayed treatment that could impact future health outcomes.

A comparison of cardiovascular disease, cancer, mortality, and Graves' ophthalmopathy following treatment for hyperthyroidism: A Bayesian network meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

This network meta-analysis aimed to evaluate the association of anti-thyroid drugs (ATD), radioactive iodine (RAI), and thyroidectomy with subsequent outcomes in patients with newly-diagnosed hyperthyroidism.

METHODS

The Ovid Medline, Ovid Embase, and Cochrane Library databases were searched for observational studies and randomized controlled trials. Included studies were published on or before 1st May 2022 involving at least two of the treatments among ATD, RAI, and thyroidectomy for hyperthyroidism. Pairwise comparisons and Bayesian network meta-analysis were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and their credible interval (CrI) of outcomes, including cardiovascular disease (CVD), cancer, overall mortality, and Graves' ophthalmopathy (GO).

RESULTS

A total of 22 cohort studies with 131,297 hyperthyroidism patients were included. Thyroidectomy was associated with lower risks of mortality and GO than ATD (HR = 0.54, 95% CrI: 0.31, 0.96; HR = 0.31, 95% CrI: 0.12, 0.64) and RAI (HR = 0.62, 95% CrI: 0.41, 0.95; HR = 0.18, 95% CrI: 0.07, 0.35). RAI had a higher risk of GO (HR = 1.70, 95% CrI: 1.02, 2.99) than ATD treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

This Bayesian network meta-analysis indicated that thyroidectomy was associated with lower risks of mortality and GO in newly-diagnosed hyperthyroid patients compared to ATD and RAI. Relative to ATD, RAI therapy increased the risk of GO.

Recalibration of a Non-Laboratory-Based Risk Model to Estimate Pre-Diabetes/Diabetes Mellitus Risk in Primary Care in Hong Kong

INTRODUCTION/OBJECTIVES

A non-laboratory-based pre-diabetes/diabetes mellitus (pre-DM/DM) risk prediction model developed from the Hong Kong Chinese population showed good external discrimination in a primary care (PC) population, but the estimated risk level was significantly lower than the observed incidence, indicating poor calibration. This study explored whether recalibrating/updating methods could improve the model's accuracy in estimating individuals' risks in PC.

METHODS

We performed a secondary analysis on the model's predictors and blood test results of 919 Chinese adults with no prior DM diagnosis recruited from PC clinics from April 2021 to January 2022 in HK. The dataset was randomly split in half into a training set and a test set. The model was recalibrated/updated based on a seven-step methodology, including model recalibrating, revising and extending methods. The primary outcome was the calibration of the recalibrated/updated models, indicated by calibration plots. The models' discrimination, indicated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC-ROC), was also evaluated.

RESULTS

Recalibrating the model's regression constant, with no change to the predictors' coefficients, improved the model's accuracy (calibration plot intercept: -0.01, slope: 0.69). More extensive methods could not improve any further. All recalibrated/updated models had similar AUC-ROCs to the original model.

CONCLUSION

The simple recalibration method can adapt the HK Chinese pre-DM/DM model to PC populations with different pre-test probabilities. The recalibrated model can be used as a first-step screening tool and as a measure to monitor changes in pre-DM/DM risks over time or after interventions.

Bariatric surgery, novel glucose-lowering agents, and insulin for type 2 diabetes and obesity: Bayesian network meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials

BACKGROUND

This network meta-analysis aimed to compare the effects of bariatric surgery, novel glucose-lowering agents (SGLT2i, GLP1RA, DPP4i), and insulin for patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and obesity.

METHODS

Four databases were searched from inception to April 2023 to identify randomized controlled trials (RCTs) comparing bariatric surgery, SGLT2i, GLP1RA, DPP4i, insulin, and/or placebo/usual care among patients with T2DM and obesity in the achievement of HbA1c < 7.0 per cent within one year, and 12-month changes in HbA1c and body weight.

RESULTS

A total of 376 eligible RCTs (149 824 patients) were analysed. Bariatric surgery had significantly higher rates of achieving HbA1c < 7.0 per cent than SGLT2i (RR = 2.46, 95 per cent c.i. = 1.28, 4.92), DPP4i (RR = 2.59, 95 per cent c.i. = 1.36, 5.13), insulin (RR = 2.27, 95 per cent c.i. = 1.18, 4.58) and placebo/usual care (RR = 4.02, 95 per cent c.i. = 2.13, 7.93), but had no statistically significant difference from GLP1RA (RR = 1.73, 95 per cent c.i. = 0.91, 3.44), regardless of oral (RR = 1.33, 95 per cent c.i. = 0.66, 2.79) or injectable (RR = 1.75, 95 per cent c.i. = 0.92, 3.45) administration. Significantly more GLP1RA patients achieved HbA1c < 7.0 per cent than other non-surgical treatments. Bariatric surgery had the greatest reductions in HbA1c (∼1 per cent more) and body weight (∼15 kg more) at 12 months. Among novel glucose-lowering medications, GLP1RA was associated with greater reductions in HbA1c than SGLT2i (-0.39 per cent, 95 per cent c.i. = -0.55, -0.22) and DPP4i (-0.51 per cent, 95 per cent c.i. = -0.64, -0.39) at 12 months, while GLP1RA (-1.74 kg, 95 per cent c.i. = -2.48, -1.01) and SGLT2i (-2.23 kg, 95 per cent c.i. = -3.07, -1.39) showed greater reductions in body weight than DPP4i at 12 months.

CONCLUSION

Bariatric surgery showed superiority in glycaemic control and weight management compared to non-surgical approaches. GLP1RA administered by oral or injectable form demonstrated reduced HbA1c and body weight at 12 months, and was preferable over other non-surgical treatments among patients with T2DM and obesity.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NO

CRD42020201507.

Assessment of Hypertension Complications and Health Service Use 5 Years After Implementation of a Multicomponent Intervention

Importance

There is a lack of information regarding the impact of implementing a protocol-driven, team-based, multicomponent intervention in public primary care settings on hypertension-related complications and health care burden over the long term.

Objective

To compare hypertension-related complications and health service use at 5 years among patients managed with Risk Assessment and Management Program for Hypertension (RAMP-HT) vs usual care.

Design, Setting, and Participants

In this population-based prospective matched cohort study, patients were followed up until the date of all-cause mortality, an outcome event, or last follow-up appointment before October 2017, whichever occurred first. Participants included 212 707 adults with uncomplicated hypertension managed at 73 public general outpatient clinics in Hong Kong between 2011 and 2013. RAMP-HT participants were matched to patients receiving usual care using propensity score fine stratification weightings. Statistical analysis was conducted from January 2019 to March 2023.

Interventions

Nurse-led risk assessment linked to electronic action reminder system, nurse intervention, and specialist consultation (as necessary), in addition to usual care.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Hypertension-related complications (cardiovascular diseases, end-stage kidney disease), all-cause mortality, public health service use (overnight hospitalization, attendances at accident and emergency department, specialist outpatient clinic, and general outpatient clinic).

Results

A total of 108 045 RAMP-HT participants (mean [SD] age: 66.3 [12.3] years; 62 277 [57.6%] female) and 104 662 patients receiving usual care (mean [SD] age 66.3 [13.5] years; 60 497 [57.8%] female) were included. After a median (IQR) follow-up of 5.4 (4.5-5.8) years, RAMP-HT participants had 8.0% absolute risk reduction in cardiovascular diseases, 1.6% absolute risk reduction in end-stage kidney disease, and 10.0% absolute risk reduction in all-cause mortality. After adjusting for baseline covariates, the RAMP-HT group was associated with lower risk of cardiovascular diseases (hazard ratio [HR], 0.62; 95% CI, 0.61-0.64), end-stage kidney disease (HR, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.50-0.59), and all-cause mortality (HR, 0.52; 95% CI, 0.50-0.54) compared with the usual care group. The number needed to treat to prevent 1 cardiovascular disease event, end-stage kidney disease, and all-cause mortality was 16, 106, and 17, respectively. RAMP-HT participants had lower hospital-based health service use (incidence rate ratios ranging from 0.60 to 0.87) but more general outpatient clinic attendances (IRR, 1.06; 95% CI, 1.06-1.06) compared with usual care patients.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this prospective matched cohort study involving 212 707 primary care patients with hypertension, participation in RAMP-HT was associated with statistically significant reductions in all-cause mortality, hypertension-related complications, and hospital-based health service use after 5 years.

OUP accepted manuscript

Background

The relationship between good early control of thyroid hormone levels after thyroidectomy for Graves’ disease (GD) and subsequent risks of mortality and morbidities is not well known. The aim of this study was to examine the association between thyroid hormone levels within a short interval after surgery and long-term mortality and morbidity risks from a population-based database.

Methods

Patients with GD who underwent complete/total thyroidectomy between 2006 and 2018 were selected from the Hong Kong Hospital Authority clinical management system. All patients were classified into three groups (euthyroidism, hypothyroidism, and hyperthyroidism) according to their thyroid hormone levels at 6, 12, and 24 months after surgery. Cox proportional hazards models were performed to compare the risks of all-cause mortality, cardiovascular disease (CVD), Graves’ ophthalmopathy, and cancer.

Results

Over a median follow-up of 68 months with 5709 person-years, 949 patients were included for analysis (euthyroidism, n = 540; hypothyroidism, n = 282; and hyperthyroidism, n = 127). The hypothyroidism group had an increased risk of CVD (HR = 4.20, 95 per cent c.i. 2.37 to 7.44, P < 0.001) and the hyperthyroidism group had an increased risk of cancer (HR = 2.14, 95 per cent c.i. 1.55 to 2.97, P < 0.001) compared with the euthyroidism group. Compared with patients obtaining euthyroidism both at 6 months and 12 months, the risk of cancer increased in patients who achieved euthyroidism at 6 months but had an abnormal thyroid status at 12 months (HR = 2.33, 95 per cent c.i. 1.51 to 3.61, P < 0.001) and in those who had abnormal thyroid status at 6 months but achieved euthyroidism at 12 months (HR = 2.52, 95 per cent c.i. 1.60 to 3.97, P < 0.001).

Conclusions

This study showed a higher risk of CVD in postsurgical hypothyroidism and a higher risk of cancer in hyperthyroidism compared with achieving euthyroidism early after thyroidectomy. Patients who were euthyroid at 6 months and 12 months had better outcomes than those achieving euthyroidism only at 6 months or 12 months. Attaining biochemical euthyroidism early after thyroidectomy should become a priority.

Association between bariatric surgery and risks of cancer among Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus: A retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

To examine risks of cancers, obesity-related cancers (eg, cancers in digestive organs, breast, ovary, kidney, thyroid, and myeloma), cancer-related mortality, and all-cause mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and obesity who underwent bariatric surgery.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort of 1944 T2DM patients with obesity (345 bariatric surgery patients and 1599 matched controls) who were free of cancer from 2006 to 2017 was assembled. One-to-five propensity score matching followed by propensity score trimming was used to balance baseline covariates.

RESULTS

During a mean follow-up period of 37 months, there are risks that in 3.2%, 1.4%, 0.9%, and 3.2% of bariatric patients cancer, obesity-related cancer, cancer-related mortality, and all-cause mortality, respectively, would occur. Surgical patients were found to have reduced incidence rates (IRs) of obesity-related cancer (0.531/100 person-years, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.172-1.238/100 person-years) and cancer of breast and genital organs (0.394/100 person-years, 95% CI: 0.048-1.424/100 person-years) than matched control patients whose IRs for obesity-related cancer and cancer of breast and genital organs were 0.627/100 person-years (95% CI: 0.426-0.889/100 person-years) and 0.521/100 person-years (95% CI: 0.277-0.891/100 person-years), respectively. Patients in the surgical group had a significant reduction in risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.508, P = .041). Effects of bariatric surgery on any cancers (HR = 1.254, P = .510), obesity-related cancers (HR = 0.843, P = .724), and cancer mortality (HR = 1.304, P = .694) were not significant.

CONCLUSIONS

Bariatric surgery was not associated with risks of overall cancer, obesity-related cancer, and cancer mortality among T2DM patients with obesity at 3 years.

Change in framingham cardiovascular disease risk between 2003 and 2014 in the hong kong population health survey

Background

The Framingham Risk model estimates a person's 10-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk.

Purpose

We aimed to calculate the change in sex-age specific Framingham CVD risk in the Hong Kong Population Health Survey (PHS) 2014/15 in comparison with the survey in 2003–05 (PHS2003/2004 & Heart Health Survey (HHS) 2004/2005).

Methods

Subjects aged 30–74 years from PHS2014/15 (n=1,662, n=4,445,869 after population weighing) and PHS2003/2004 & HHS2004/2005 (n=818, n=3,495,074 after population weighing) with complete data for the calculation of Framingham CVD predicted risk were included. The sex-specific CVD risks of participants were calculated based on their age, total cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein, mean systolic blood pressure, smoking habits, diabetic status, and treatment for hypertension. The mean sex-age specific CVD risks were then calculated, and the differences in CVD risk between the two surveys were analysed using ANOVA.

Results

There was no significant difference in 10-year CVD risks between the 2003–2005 and 2014/15 study populations (10.2% vs. 10.6%, p=0.29). After adjusting to a standard population (US Census 2000), the age-standardized CVD risk was lower in 2014–2015 than in 2003–05 (10.0% vs. 10.7%, p=0.017). More participants aged 65–74 were classified as high risk during 2003/04 (PHS2003/2004 & HHS2004/2005: 66.8% vs. PHS2014/15: 53.1%, p=0.026). This might be due to the decrease in the proportion of smokers among men (2003–2005: 30.5% vs. 24.0% in 2014–15, p&lt;0.001).

Conclusions

Between 2003/04 and 2014/15, there was a small decrease in age-standardized 10-year CVD risk, which might be related to the reduction in smoking. However, more effort in targeting multiple CVD risk factors simultaneously is needed to achieve a greater reduction in CVD risk.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

Effects of bariatric surgery on kidney diseases, cardiovascular diseases, mortality and severe hypoglycaemia among patients with Type 2 diabetes mellitus

BACKGROUND

Bariatric surgery has been widely indicated for the management of obesity and related comorbidities. However, there are uncertainties pertaining to the risks of post-bariatric severe hypoglycaemia (SH), cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), end-stage kidney diseases (ESKDs) and all-cause mortality in obese patients with Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), especially among Asian populations.

METHODS

A retrospective population-based cohort of 1702 obese T2DM patients who were free of CVD and ESKD were assembled based on the 2006-17 Hospital Authority database. One-to-five propensity-score matching was used to balance baseline covariates between patients in bariatric surgery and control groups. Incidence rates (IRs) of SH, CVD, Stage 4/5 chronic kidney diseases (CKD), ESKD and all-cause mortality events for two groups were calculated. Hazard ratios (HR) for SH, CVD and Stage 4/5 CKD events were assessed using Cox-proportional hazard models. Changes in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and urine albumin-creatinine ratio (UACR) were measured up to 60 months.

RESULTS

Over a mean follow-up period of 32 months with 5725 person-years, cumulative incidences of mortality, CVD, Stage 4/5 CKD, ESKD and SH were 0, 0.036, 0.050, 0.017 and 0.020, respectively. The surgery group had a significant reduction in risk of CVD events (HR = 0.464, P = 0.015) and no occurrence of mortality events. However, there were no significant differences in risks of SH [HR = 0.469, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.204-1.081], Stage 4/5 CKD (HR =0.896, 95% CI: 0.519-1.545) and ESKD (HR = 0.666, 95% CI: 0.264-1.683) between two groups, although IRs were lower in the surgery group. Surgical patients had significantly higher eGFR within 12 months and had significantly lower UACR until 48 months.

CONCLUSIONS

Among obese T2DM patients, bariatric surgery lowered the risk of CVD and mortality, and was beneficial towards the kidney outcomes.

Impact of sleep duration, physical activity, and screen time on health-related quality of life in children and adolescents

Background

Existing studies on health-related quality of life (HRQoL) mainly covered single growth stages of childhood or adolescence and did not report on the trends in the relationships of HRQoL with sleep duration, physical activity, and screen time. This study aimed to establish the population norm of HRQoL in children and adolescents aged 6–17 years and examine the associations of screen time, sleep duration, and physical activity with HRQoL in this population.

Methods

We conducted a large-scale cross-sectional population-based survey study of Hong Kong children and adolescents aged 6 to 17 years. A representative sample of students were interviewed to assess their HRQoL using PedsQL and EQ-5D-Y-5L. Multivariable homoscedastic Tobit regression with linear form or restricted cubic spline of predictors was used to analyze the associations between screen time, sleep duration, and HRQoL. Multiple imputation by chained equations was performed to deal with missing data.

Results

A total of 7555 respondents (mean age 11.5, SD 3.2; 55.1% female) were sampled. Their EQ VAS scores, PedsQL physical summary scores, and psychosocial summary scores were positively correlated with sleep duration and moderate/vigorous activity but was negatively correlated with screen time.

Conclusions

Children and adolescents who had longer exposure to screen, shorter sleep duration, and lower physical activity levels appeared to have poorer HRQoL as assessed by PedsQL and EQ-5D-Y-5L. Advice and guidance on screen time allocation for children and adolescents should be provided at the levels of school, community, and family.

The APEC Digital Hub-WONCA Collaborative Framework on Integration of Mental Health into Primary Care in the Asia Pacific

Mental ill health affects individual well-being and national economic prosperity and makes up a substantial portion of the burden of disease globally, especially in the Asia-Pacific region. Integrating mental health into primary care is widely considered a key strategy to improve access to mental health care. Integration, however, is a complex process that needs to be addressed at multiple levels. A collaboration between the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Digital Hub for Mental Health and the World Organization of Family Doctors (WONCA) is described in this paper, which outlines a framework and next steps to improve the mental health of communities in APEC economies. This paper notes gaps related to the integration of mental health into primary care across the region and identifies enablers and current best practices from several APEC economies. The potential of digital technology to benefit primary mental health care for populations in the APEC region, including delivery of training programs for healthcare staff and access to resources for patients, is described. Finally, key next steps are proposed to promote enhanced integration into primary care and improve mental health care throughout the APEC region.

SGLT2i as fourth-line therapy and risk of mortality, end-stage renal diseases and cardiovascular diseases in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus

AIM

Current guideline recommends insulin as fourth-line glucose-lowering medications. However, treatment effects of sodium glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) on the risk of complications are uncertain. This study examines risks of all-cause mortality, cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and end-stage renal diseases (ESRD) in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) patients on triple oral glucose-lowering medications initiating SGLT2i, insulin or other oral medications.

METHODS

A population-based retrospective cohort of patients with T2DM between 2006-2017 was extracted from Hong Kong Hospital Authority database. Patients who were initiated a fourth-line therapy with SGLT2i, insulin or other oral medications were included. Hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause mortality, CVD and ESRD were assessed using Cox proportional hazard models.

RESULTS

Over a median follow-up period of 18.5 months with 63,122 person-years, SGLT2i and insulin group had the lowest and highest incidence rate of all-cause mortality, CVD and ESRD (1.06, 0.65 and 0.61 vs 4.25, 5.58 and 4.39/100 person-years), respectively. Initiating SGLT2i as fourth-line medication had more benefits on CVD, in particular coronary heart disease and stroke. Insulin users had higher risks of CVD (HR=8.04, 95%CI=3.06-21.12) than SGLT2i users. SGLT2i was associated with insignificant reduction in ESRD (HR=4.62, 95%CI=0.73-29.09) and all-cause mortality (HR=3.06, 95%CI=0.75-12.45), and HF (HR=2.99, 95%CI=0.37-24.42) among patients without established HF.

CONCLUSION

Among T2DM patients initiating fourth-line therapy, SGLT2i users had significant benefits in lowering risk of CVD, and potential benefits in lowering risks of ESRD and all-cause mortality. SGLT2i was the preferred fourth-line glucose-lowering medication least likely to be associated with complication risks.

Greater variability in lipid measurements associated with cardiovascular disease and mortality: A 10-year diabetes cohort study

AIM

To examine the associations between variability in lipids and the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes based on low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C), the total cholesterol (TC) to high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-C) ratio and triglycerides (TG).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A retrospective cohort study included 125 047 primary care patients with type 2 diabetes aged 45-84 years without CVD during 2008-2012. The variability of LDL-C, TC to HDL-C and TG was determined using the standard deviation of variables in a mixed effects model to minimize regression dilution bias. The associations between variability in lipids and CVD and mortality risk were assessed by Cox regression. Subgroup analyses based on patients' baseline characteristics were also conducted.

RESULTS

A total of 19 913 CVD events and 15 329 mortalities were recorded after a median follow-up period of 77.5 months (0.8 million person-years), suggesting a positive linear relationship between variability in lipids and the risk of CVD and mortality. Each unit increase in the variability of LDL-C (mmol/L), the TC to HDL-C ratio and TG (mmol/L) was associated with a 27% (HR: 1.27 [95% CI: 1.20-1.34]), 31% (HR:1.31 [95% CI: 1.25-1.38]) and 9% (HR: 1.09 [95% CI: 1.04-1.15]) increase in the risk of composite endpoint of CVD and mortality, respectively. Age-specific effects were also found when comparing LDL-C variability, with patients aged 45-54 years (HR: 1.70 [95% CI: 1.42-2.02]) exhibiting a 53% increased risk for the composite endpoints than those aged 75-84 years (HR: 1.11 [95% CI: 1.01-1.23]). Similar age effects were observed for both the TC to HDL-C ratio and TG variability. Significant associations remained consistent among most of the subgroups.

CONCLUSIONS

Variability in respective lipids are significant factors in predicting CVD and mortality in primary care patients with type 2 diabetes, with the strongest effects related to LDL-C and the TC to HDL-C ratio and most significant in the younger age group of patients aged 45-54 years. Further study is warranted to confirm these findings.

Prediction models for the risk of cardiovascular diseases in Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus: a systematic review

OBJECTIVES

Diabetes mellitus (DM) is a serious public health issue worldwide, and DM patients have higher risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), which is the leading cause of DM-related deaths. China has the largest DM population, yet a robust model to predict CVDs in Chinese DM patients is still lacking. This systematic review is carried out to summarize existing models and identify potentially important predictors for CVDs in Chinese DM patients.

STUDY DESIGN

Systematic review.

METHODS

Medline and Embase were searched for data from April 1st, 2011 to May 31st, 2018. A study was eligible if it developed CVD (defined as total CVD or any major cardiovascular component) risk prediction models or explored potential predictors of CVD specifically for Chinese people with type 2 DM. Standardized forms were utilized to extract information, appraise applicability, risk of bias, and availabilities.

RESULTS

Five models and 29 studies focusing on potential predictors were identified. Models for a primary care setting, or to predict total CVD, are rare. A number of common predictors (e.g. age, sex, diabetes duration, smoking status, glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), blood pressure, lipid profile, and treatment modalities) were observed in existing models, in which urine albumin:creatinine ratio (ACR) and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) are highly recommended for the Chinese population. Variability of blood pressure (BP) and HbA1c should be included in prediction model development as novel factors. Meanwhile, interactions between age, sex, and risk factors should also be considered.

CONCLUSIONS

A 10-year prediction model for CVD risk in Chinese type 2 DM patients is lacking and urgently needed. There is insufficient evidence to support the inclusion of other novel predictors in CVDs risk prediction functions for routine clinical use.

DPP4i, thiazolidinediones, or insulin and risks of cancer in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus on metformin-sulfonylurea dual therapy with inadequate control

INTRODUCTION

This study aims to compare the risks of cancer among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) on metformin-sulfonylurea dual therapy intensified with dipeptidyl peptidase 4 inhibitors (DPP4i), thiazolidinediones, or insulin.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We assembled a retrospective cohort data of 20 577 patients who were free of cancer and on metformin-sulfonylurea dual therapy, and whose drug treatments were intensified with DPP4i (n=9957), insulin (n=7760), or thiazolidinediones (n=2860) from January 2006 to December 2017. Propensity-score weighting was used to balance out baseline covariates across the three groups. HRs for any types of cancer, cancer mortality, and all-cause mortality were assessed using Cox proportional-hazards models.

RESULTS

Over a mean follow-up period of 34 months with 58 539 person-years, cumulative incidences of cancer, cancer mortality, and all-cause mortality were 0.028, 0.009, and 0.072, respectively. Patients intensified with insulin had the highest incidence of all-cause mortality (incidence rate=3.22/100 person-years) and the insulin itself posed the greatest risk (HR 2.46, 95% CI 2.25 to 2.70, p<0.001; 2.44, 95% CI 2.23 to 2.67) compared with thiazolidinediones and DPP4i, respectively. Comparing between thiazolidinediones and DPP4i, thiazolidinediones was associated with higher risk of cancer (HR 1.43, 95% CI 1.25 to 1.63) but not cancer mortality (HR 1.21, 95% CI 0.92 to 1.58) and all-cause mortality (HR 0.99, 95% CI 0.88 to 1.11). Insulin was associated with the greatest risk of cancer mortality (HR 1.36, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.71; 1.65, 95% CI 1.31 to 2.07) compared with thiazolidinediones and DPP4i, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

For patients with T2DM on metformin-sulfonylurea dual therapy, the addition of DPP4i was the third-line medication least likely to be associated with cancer mortality and cancer effect among three options, and posed no increased risk for all-cause mortality when compared with thiazolidinediones.

Lifetime cost-effectiveness analysis of first-line dialysis modalities for patients with end-stage renal disease under peritoneal dialysis first policy

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to determine the lifetime cost-effectiveness of first-line dialysis modalities for end-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients under the "Peritoneal Dialysis First" policy.

METHODS

Lifetime cost-effectiveness analyses from both healthcare provider and societal perspectives were performed using Markov modelling by simulating at age 60. Empirical data on costs and health utility scores collected from our studies were combined with published data on health state transitions and survival data to estimate the lifetime cost, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and cost-effectiveness of three competing dialysis modalities: peritoneal dialysis (PD), hospital-based haemodialysis (HD) and nocturnal home HD.

RESULTS

For cost-effectiveness analysis over a lifetime horizon from the perspective of healthcare provider, hospital-based HD group (lifetime cost USD$142,389; 6.58 QALYs) was dominated by the PD group (USD$76,915; 7.13 QALYs). Home-based HD had the highest effectiveness (8.37 QALYs) but with higher cost (USD$97,917) than the PD group. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was USD$16,934 per QALY gained for home-based HD over PD. From the societal perspective, the results were similar and the ICER was USD$1195 per QALY gained for home-based HD over PD. Both ICERs fell within the acceptable thresholds. Changes in model parameters via sensitivity analyses had a minimal impact on ICER values.

CONCLUSIONS

This study assessed the cost-effectiveness of dialysis modalities and service delivery models for ESRD patients under "Peritoneal Dialysis First" policy. For both healthcare provider and societal perspectives, PD as first-line dialysis modality was cost-saving relative to hospital-based HD, supporting the existing PD First or favoured policy. When compared with PD, Nocturnal home Home-based HD was considered a cost-effective first-line dialysis modality for ESRD patients.

Direct medical costs in the preceding, event and subsequent years of a first severe hypoglycaemia episode requiring hospitalization: A population-based cohort study

AIMS

We aimed to estimate the use of healthcare services and the direct medical costs accrued by patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) during the year of the first severe hypoglycaemia (SH) event, as well as during the years before and after the event year.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We analysed a population-based, retrospective cohort including all adults with DM managed in the primary care setting from the Hong Kong Hospital Authority between 2006 and 2013. DM patients for whom SH was first recorded during the designated period were identified and matched to a control group of patients who had not experienced an SH event using the propensity score method. Direct medical costs in the years before, during and after the first SH event were determined by totalling the costs of health services utilized within respective years.

RESULTS

After matching, a total of 22 694 DM patients were divided into the first recorded-SH group (n = 11 347) and the non-SH control group (n = 11 347). Patients for whom SH was first recorded, on average, made 7.85 outpatient clinic visits, made 1.89 emergency visits and spent 17.75 nights hospitalized during the event year. Mean direct medical costs during the event year were 11 751 US$, more than 2-fold that during the preceding year (4846 US$; P < 0.001) and subsequent years (4198-4700 US$; P < 0.001) and was 4.5 times that 2 years before the event (2481 US$; P < 0.001). Incremental costs of SH patients vs matched controls during the event year and the preceding year were 10 873 US$ (P < 0.001) and 3974 US$ (P < 0.001), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

SH is associated with excessive hospital admission rates and direct medical costs during the event year and, in particular, during the year before as compared to patients who had not experienced an SH event.

Health-related quality of life and health utility of Chinese patients undergoing nocturnal home haemodialysis in comparison with other modes of dialysis

BACKGROUND

To compare the health-related quality of life (HRQOL) and health utility of Chinese patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) undergoing nocturnal home haemodialysis (Home HD) against those patients undergoing other modes of dialysis.

METHODS

Chinese ESRD patients undergoing Home HD were recruited in renal specialist outpatient clinics at three public hospitals in Hong Kong. SF-12 Health Survey (SF-12) was used to measure HRQOL and generate the SF-6D heath utility score. Mean scores of SF-12 domains, physical and mental component summary and SF-6D health utility of 41 patients undergoing Home HD were compared with available scores of patients receiving other forms of dialysis, namely, peritoneal dialysis (PD) (n = 103), hospital in-centre HD (n = 135) or community in-centre HD (n = 118). Adjusted linear regression models were used to examine the impact of mode of dialysis on the HRQOL and health utility scores, accounting for the sociodemographic and clinical characteristics.

RESULTS

ESRD patients undergoing PD and community in-centre HD had better health utility, physical and mental component summary scores than the hospital in-centre HD. Adjusted analysis showed that hospital in-centre HD reported worse physical component summary and health utility scores when compared with PD and community in-centre HD.

CONCLUSION

HRQOL and health utility scores of patients undergoing Home HD were similar to those undergoing PD and community in-centre HD. Better physical aspects of HRQOL and health utility was observed in PD and community-based HD than hospital in-centre HD, providing evidence for the increase in capacity of non-hospital-based HD, which provided flexibility as well as patient centredness and empowerment in Hong Kong.

Nonrestorative sleep scale: reliable and valid for the Chinese population

PURPOSE

To conduct a linguistic and psychometric evaluation of a Chinese version of the Nonrestorative Sleep Scale (NRSS).

METHODS

The Chinese NRSS was created from a standard forward-backward translation and trialed on 10 Chinese adults. Telephone interviews were then conducted with 100 adults, who completed the Chinese NRSS, the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI), the Athens Insomnia Scale (AIS), the Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale (CES-D), and the Toronto Hospital Alertness Test (THAT). A household survey was conducted with 20 subjects, followed by a confirmatory factor analysis (CFA), and a bifactor model was developed to evaluate the reliability and validity of the NRSS.

RESULTS

The bifactor model had the root mean square error of approximation (RMSEA), standardized root mean square residual (SRMR), and comparative fit index (CFI) of 0.06, 0.06, and 0.97, respectively. Convergent validity was shown from the moderate associations with PSQI (r = - 0.66, P < 0.01), AIS (r = - 0.65, P < 0.01), CES-D (r = - 0.54, P < 0.01), and THAT (r = 0.68, P < 0.01). The coefficient omega (0.92), omega hierarchical (0.81), factor determinacy (0.93), H value (0.91), explained common variance (0.63), and percentage of uncontaminated correlations (0.80) derived from the bifactor CFA supported the essential unidimensionality of NRSS.

CONCLUSIONS

The Chinese NRSS is a valid and reliable essential unidimensional tool for the assessment of nonrestorative sleep in the Chinese population.

Direct and indirect costs of end-stage renal disease patients in the first and second years after initiation of nocturnal home haemodialysis, hospital haemodialysis and peritoneal dialysis

Purpose

To estimate the direct and indirect costs of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients in the first and second years of initiating peritoneal dialysis (PD), hospital-based haemodialysis (HD) and nocturnal home HD.

Methods

A cost analysis was performed to estimate the annual costs of PD, hospital-based HD and nocturnal home HD for ESRD patients from both the health service provider’s and societal perspectives. Empirical data on healthcare resource use, patients’ out-of-pocket costs, time spent on transportation and dialysis by ESRD patients and time spent by caregivers were analysed. All costs were expressed in Hong Kong year 2017 dollars.

Results

Analysis was based on 402 ESRD patients on maintenance dialysis (PD: 189; hospital-based HD: 170; and nocturnal home HD: 43). From the perspective of the healthcare provider, hospital-based HD had the highest total annual direct medical costs in the initial year (mean ± SD) (hospital-based HD = $400 057 ± 62 822; PD = $118 467 ± 15 559; nocturnal home HD = $223 358 ± 18 055; P &lt; 0.001) and second year (hospital-based HD = $360 924  ± 63 014; PD = $80 796 ± 15 820; nocturnal home HD = $87 028 ± 9059; P &lt; 0.001). From the societal perspective, hospital-based HD had the highest total annual costs in the initial year (hospital-based HD = $452 151  ± 73 327; PD = $189 191 ± 61 735; nocturnal home HD = $242 038 ± 28 281; P &lt; 0.001) and second year (hospital-based HD = $413 017 ± 73 501; PD = $151 520 ± 60 353; nocturnal home HD = $105 708 ± 23 853; P &lt; 0.001).

Conclusions

This study quantified the economic burden of ESRD patients, and assessed the annual healthcare and societal costs in the initial and second years of PD, hospital-based HD and nocturnal home HD in Hong Kong. From both perspectives, PD is cost-saving relative to hospital-based HD and nocturnal home HD, except that nocturnal home HD has the lowest cost in the second year of treatment from the societal perspective. Results from this cost analysis facilitate economic evaluation in Hong Kong for health services and management targeted at ESRD patients.

Long-term cost-effectiveness of a Patient Empowerment Programme for type 2 diabetes mellitus in primary care

AIM

To evaluate the long-term cost-effectiveness of a Patient Empowerment Programme (PEP) for type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM) in primary care.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

PEP participants were subjects with type 2 DM who enrolled into PEP in addition to enrolment in the Risk Assessment and Management Programme for DM (RAMP-DM) at primary care level. The comparison group was subjects who only enrolled into RAMP-DM without participating in PEP (non-PEP). A cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted using a patient-level simulation model (with fixed-time increments) from a societal perspective. We incorporated the empirical data from a matched cohort of PEP and non-PEP groups to simulate lifetime costs and outcomes for subjects with DM with or without PEP. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) in terms of cost per quality adjusted life year (QALY) gained were calculated. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was conducted with results presented as a cost-effectiveness acceptability curve.

RESULTS

With an assumption that the PEP effect would last for 5 years as shown by the empirical data, the incremental cost per subject was US $197 and the incremental QALYs gained were 0.06 per subject, which resulted in an ICER of US $3290 per QALY gained compared with no PEP across the lifetime. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed 66% likelihood that PEP is cost-effective compared with non-PEP when willingness-to-pay for a QALY is ≥US $46 153 (based on per capita GDP 2017).

CONCLUSIONS

Based on this carefully measured cost of PEP and its potentially large benefits, PEP could be highly cost-effective from a societal perspective as an adjunct intervention for patients with DM.

Five-year effectiveness of short messaging service (SMS) for pre-diabetes

Objective

An observational post-randomized controlled trial (RCT) design was adopted to evaluate the long-term sustainability and maintenance of improved glycemic control, lipid profile, reduced progression to diabetes at 3-year following a 2-year short messaging service (SMS). We performed a naturalistic follow-up to the 104 participants of SMS intervention, a 2-year randomized controlled trial comparing the SMS to non-SMS for pre-diabetes. All participants were arranged screening for diabetes at 5-year assessment. Primary outcome of this post-RCT study was cumulative incidence of diabetes whereas secondary outcomes were the change in biometric data over a 5-year period.

Results

After a mean 57-month follow-up, 19 (18.3%) were lost to follow-up after the RCT period. Progression to diabetes occurred in 20 and 16 patients among the intervention and control group respectively, with no significant between-group difference (8.06 and 7.31 cases per 100 person years, respectively; Hazard Ratio in the intervention group, 1.184; 95% confidence interval, 0.612 to 2.288; p-value = 0.616). No significant effect of SMS on reduction in diabetes was observed in overall and pre-defined subgroups. The SMS intervention preserved the clinical benefits within the trial period but failed to transform from treatment efficacy to long-term effectiveness beyond 2 years after intervention.

Trail registration ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier NCT01556880, retrospectively registered on March 16, 2012

Direct medical costs of diabetes mellitus in the year of mortality and year preceding the year of mortality

AIM

To report the health resource use and estimate the direct medical costs among patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) in the year of mortality and the year preceding the year of mortality.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We analysed data from a population-based, retrospective cohort study including all adults with a DM diagnosis in Hong Kong between 2009 and 2013, and who died between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2013. The annual direct medical costs in the year of mortality and the year preceding the year of mortality were determined by summing the costs of health services utilized within the respective year. The costs were analysed by gender, the presence of comorbidities, diabetic complications and primary cause of death.

RESULTS

A total of 10 649 patients met the eligibility criteria for analysis. On average, the direct medical costs in the year of death were 1.947 times higher than those in the year before death. Men and women with DM incurred similar costs in the year preceding the year of mortality and in the mortality year. Patients with any diabetic complications incurred greater costs in the year of mortality and the year before mortality than those without.

CONCLUSIONS

This analysis provides new evidence on incorporating additional direct medical costs in the mortality year, and refining the structure of total cost estimates for use in costing and cost-effectiveness analyses of interventions for DM.

SF-6D population norms for the Hong Kong Chinese general population

PURPOSE

To estimate population norms for the SF-6D health preference (utility) scores derived from the MOS SF-36 version 1 (SF-36v1), SF-36 version 2 (SF-36v2), and (SF-12v2) health surveys collected from a representative adult sample in Hong Kong, and to assess differences in SF-6D scores across sociodemographic subgroups.

METHODS

A random telephone survey of 2410 Chinese adults was conducted. All respondents completed questionnaires on sociodemographics and presence of chronic diseases (hypertension, diabetes, chronic rheumatism, chronic lung diseases, stroke, and mental illness), and the short-form 36-item health survey (SF-36) version 1, and selected items of the SF-36v2 that were different from those of SF-36v1. Responses of short-form 12-item health survey (SF-12) were extracted from responses of the SF-36 items. SF-6D health utility scores were derived from SF-36 version 1 (SF-6D_SF-36v1), SF-36 version 2 (SF-6D_SF-36v2), and SF-12 version 2 (SF-6D_SF-12v2) using Hong Kong SF-6D value set.

RESULTS

Population norms of SF-6D_SF-36v1, SF-6D_SF-36v2, and SF-6D_SF-12v2 for the Hong Kong Chinese were 0.7947 (± 0.0048), 0.7862 (± 0.0049), and 0.8147 (± 0.0050), respectively. Three SF-6D scores were highly correlated (0.861-0.954), and had a high degree of reliability and absolute agreement. Males had higher health utility scores (SF-6D_SF-36v1: 0.0025; SF-6D_SF-36v2: 0.025; SF-6D_SF-12v2: 0.018) but reported less problems in all the dimensions than women. Respondents with a higher number of chronic diseases had lower SF-6D scores. Among all respondents with one or more chronic diseases, those with hypertension scored the highest whereby those with mental illness scored the least.

CONCLUSIONS

The SF-6D utility scores derived from different SF-36 or SF-12 health surveys were different. The population norms based on these three health surveys enable the normative comparisons of health utility scores from specific population or patient groups, and provide estimates of age-gender adjusted health utility scores for health economic evaluations.

EQ-5D-5L and SF-6D Utility Measures in Symptomatic benign Thyroid Nodules: Acceptability and Psychometric Evaluation

PURPOSE

The aim of this study was to examine the acceptability, validity, and reliability of the EuroQoL Five-Dimension Five-Level (EQ-5D-5L) and Short-Form Six-Dimension (SF-6D) health utility measures in patients with symptomatic benign thyroid nodules.

METHODS

Data from a randomized controlled trial (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02398721) of 294 patients with symptomatic benign thyroid nodules were utilized for this psychometric evaluation of health-related quality of life (HR-QOL) measurement. Three HR-QOL questionnaires-the generic 12-item Short Form Health Survey (SF-12v2), EQ-5D-5L, and SF-6D-were interviewer-administered at baseline and 2 weeks afterwards. Responses to SF-6D were transformed to SF-6D utility scores using a Hong Kong population scoring algorithm derived by standard gamble, whereas responses to EQ-5D-5L were mapped onto EQ-5D-3L response via interim mapping algorithms and then converted to EQ-5D-5L utility scores using a Chinese-specific value set. Construct validity was determined by evaluating Spearman correlation between SF-12v2 scores and utility scores. Two-week test-retest reliability was assessed using intra-class correlation coefficient.

RESULTS

No significant (>15%) floor and ceiling effects were observed for SF-6D utility scores. The SF-6D utility scores had a moderate Spearman rank correlation with the SF-12v2 domain score providing evidence for adequate construct validity. The SF-6D utility scores showed good test-retest reliability (0.794; range 0.696-0.860). Better reliability was observed in SF-6D utility scores than in EQ-5D-5L utility scores.

CONCLUSIONS

While the EQ-5D-5L instrument was less reproducible, the SF-6D instrument appeared to be an applicable, valid, and reliable measure in assessing the HR-QOL of Chinese patients with symptomatic benign thyroid nodules. The impact of utility score selection on the effectiveness and cost effectiveness of clinical interventions targeted to these patients needs further exploration.

CLINICAL TRIAL NUMBER AND REGISTRY

NCT02398721, ClinicalTrials.gov.

Awareness of diabetic retinopathy and its association with attendance for systematic screening at the public primary care setting: a cross-sectional study in Hong Kong

OBJECTIVE

To assess the association between awareness of diabetic retinopathy (DR) and actual attendance for DR screening.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional study.

SETTING

Two public general outpatient clinics.

PARTICIPANTS

The subjects were people with diabetes mellitus (DM) who participated in a randomised controlled trial, set up in 2008, to test the impact of a copayment on attendance for DR screening.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

The subjects' awareness of DR was evaluated using a structured questionnaire conducted via a telephone interview. The attendance for screening was from the actual attendance data. Association between awareness and attendance for screening was determined using multivariate logistic regression model and was reported as ORs.

RESULTS

A total of 2593 participants completed the questionnaire. A total of 42.9% (1113/2593) said they would worry if they had any vision loss and 79.6% (2063/2593) knew that DM could cause blindness. Only 17.5% (453/2593) knew that treatment was available for DR and 11.5% (297/2593) knew that early DR could be asymptomatic. The importance of having a regular eye examination was acknowledged by 75.7% (1964/2593), but 34% (881/2593) did not know how frequently their eyes should be examined. Worry about vision loss (OR=1.72, P<0.001), awareness of the importance of regular eye examination (OR=1.83, P=0.002) and awareness of the frequency of eye examinations ('every year' (OR=2.64, P<0.001) or 'every 6 months' (OR=3.27, P<0.001)) were the most significant factors associated with attendance.

CONCLUSIONS

Deficits in knowledge of DR and screening were found among subjects with DM, and three awareness factors were associated with attendance for screening. These factors could be targeted for future interventions.

Temporal trends in quality of primary care for patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus: A population-based retrospective cohort study after implementation of a quality improvement initiative

BACKGROUND

This study examined whether temporal trends exist in treatment of patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and quality of diabetes care after implementation of quality improvement initiative in primary care setting.

METHODS

We conducted a population-based retrospective cohort study of 202,284 patients with T2D who were routinely managed in primary care clinics. We examined the change over time and the variability between clinics in quality of care from Hospital Authority administrative data over a 5-year period (2009-2013) and used multilevel logistic regression to adjust for patient and clinic characteristics. Observational period was partitioned in 5 calendar years. Ten quality-of-care criteria were selected: adherence to 7 process of care criteria (HbA_1c test, renal function test, full lipid profile, urine protein analysis, retinal screening, lipid-lowering agent prescriptions among patients with hypercholesterolaemia, and angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor/angiotensin receptor blocker prescriptions among patients with microalbuminuria) and 3 outcome of care criteria (HbA_1c  ≤ 7%, BP ≤ 130/80 mmHg, and LDL-C ≤ 2.6 mmol/L). Variability of standards between clinics was assessed by using intracluster correlation coefficients.

RESULTS

Characteristics of patients with T2D managed in primary care changed substantially during the observational period, with increasing age and usage of insulin and longer duration of diabetes but improved metabolic profiles (all P trend < .001). Performance rates of the 7 process and 3 clinical outcomes of care criteria increased remarkably over time (all P trend < .001). Variations in retinal screening delivery between clinics were considerable, albeit decreasing over time.

CONCLUSIONS

Coinciding with implementation of quality improvement initiative, quality of diabetes care improved significantly in the past 5 years, in part attributable to benefits of integrated multidisciplinary diabetes management.

The mediating factors in the relationship between lower urinary tract symptoms and health-related quality of life

OBJECTIVES

An earlier study found that mental health partially mediates the relationship between lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS) severity and health-related quality of life (HRQOL). In other words, LUTS adversely affects mental health, which in turn adversely affects HRQOL. A major limitation of the previous study was its cross-sectional design. The aim of this study is to evaluate whether changes in mental health mediated the association between changes in the severity of LUTS and changes in HRQOL over 24 months by using Baron and Kenny's regression procedure and Preacher and Hayes's bootstrapping method.

RESULTS

We found that changes in mental health were a mediator in the relationship between the change of LUTS severity and the change of LUTS-specific HRQOL. Changes in LUTS severity lead to changes in mental health, which in turn affects the change of LUTS-specific HRQOL. It was observed however that changes in mental health did not mediate the relationship between the change of LUTS severity and the change of the physical aspects of generic HRQOL. These findings suggest that in order to optimize LUTS-specific HRQOL, both LUTS severity and mental health may need to be addressed concurrently.

Development and validation study of a non-alcoholic fatty liver disease risk scoring model among adults in China

BACKGROUND

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is one of the most common liver diseases in China. It is usually asymptomatic and transabdominal ultrasound (USS) is the usual means for diagnosis, but it may not be feasible to have USS screening of the whole population.

OBJECTIVE

To develop a risk scoring model for predicting the presence of NAFLD using parameters that can be easily obtain in clinical settings.

METHODS

A retrospective study on the data of 672 adults who had general health check including a transabdominal ultrasound. Fractional polynomial and multivariable logistic regressions of sociodemographic and biochemical variables on NAFLD were used to identify the predictors. A risk score was assigned to each predictor using the scaled standardized β-coefficient to create a risk prediction algorithm. The accuracy for NAFLD detection by each cut-off score in the risk algorithm was evaluated.

RESULTS

The prevalence of NAFLD in our study population was 33.0% (222/672). Six significant factors were selected in the final prediction model. The areas under the curve (AUC) was 0.82 (95% CI: 0.78-0.85). The optimal cut-off score, based on the ROC was 35, with a sensitivity of 76.58% (95% CI: 70.44-81.98%) and specificity of 74.89% (95% CI: 70.62-78.83%).

CONCLUSION

A NAFLD risk scoring model can be used to identify asymptomatic Chinese people who are at risk of NAFLD for further USS investigation.

Annual direct medical costs associated with diabetes-related complications in the event year and in subsequent years in Hong Kong

AIM

To develop models to estimate the direct medical costs associated with diabetes-related complications in the event year and in subsequent years.

METHODS

The public direct medical costs associated with 13 diabetes-related complications were estimated among a cohort of 128 353 people with diabetes over 5 years. Private direct medical costs were estimated from a cross-sectional survey among 1825 people with diabetes. We used panel data regression with fixed effects to investigate the impact of each complication on direct medical costs in the event year and subsequent years, adjusting for age and co-existing complications.

RESULTS

The expected annual public direct medical cost for the baseline case was US$1,521 (95% CI 1,518 to 1,525) or a 65-year-old person with diabetes without complications. A new lower limb ulcer was associated with the biggest increase, with a multiplier of 9.38 (95% CI 8.49 to 10.37). New end-stage renal disease and stroke increased the annual medical cost by 5.23 (95% CI 4.70 to 5.82) and 5.94 (95% CI 5.79 to 6.10) times, respectively. History of acute myocardial infarction, congestive heart failure, stroke, end-stage renal disease and lower limb ulcer increased the cost by 2-3 times. The expected annual private direct medical cost of the baseline case was US$187 (95% CI 135 to 258) for a 65-year-old man without complications. Heart disease, stroke, sight-threatening diabetic retinopathy and end-stage renal disease increased the private medical costs by 1.5 to 2.5 times.

CONCLUSIONS

Wide variations in direct medical cost in event year and subsequent years across different major complications were observed. Input of these data would be essential for economic evaluations of diabetes management programmes.

Five-year cost-effectiveness of the Patient Empowerment Programme (PEP) for type 2 diabetes mellitus in primary care

This study evaluated the short-term cost-effectiveness of the Patient Empowerment Programme (PEP) for diabetes mellitus (DM) in Hong Kong. Propensity score matching was used to select a matched group of PEP and non-PEP subjects. A societal perspective was adopted to estimate the cost of PEP. Outcome measures were the cumulative incidence of all-cause mortality and diabetic complication over a 5-year follow-up period and the number needed to treat (NNT) to avoid 1 event. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of cost per event avoided was calculated using the PEP cost per subject multiplied by the NNT. The PEP cost per subject from the societal perspective was US$247. There was a significantly lower cumulative incidence of all-cause mortality (2.9% vs 4.6%, P < .001), any DM complication (9.5% vs 10.8%, P = .001) and CVD events (6.8% vs 7.6%, P = .018), in the PEP group. The costs per death from any cause, DM complication or case of CVD avoided were US$14 465, US$19 617 and US$30 796, respectively. The extra amount allocated to managing PEP was small and it appears cost-effective in the short-term as an addition to RAMP.

Primary care workforce and continuous medical education in China: lessons to learn from a nationwide cross-sectional survey

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to examine the education and training background of Chinese community health centres (CHCs) staff, continuous medical education (CME) and factors affecting participation in CME.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional survey.

SETTING

Community health centres (CHCs).

PARTICIPANTS

All doctors and nurses working in selected CHCs (excluding those solely practising traditional Chinese Medicine).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

CME recorded by CHCs and self-reported CME participation.

METHODS

A stratified random sample of CHCs based on geographical distribution and 2:1 urban-suburban ratio was selected covering three major regions of China. Two questionnaires, one for lead clinicians and another for frontline health professionals, were administered between September-December 2015, covering the demographics of clinic staff, staff training and CME activities.

RESULTS

149 lead clinicians (response rate 79%) and 1734 doctors and 1846 nurses completed the survey (response rate 86%). Of the doctors, 54.5% had a bachelor degree and only 47% were registered as general practitioners (GPs). Among the doctors, 10.5% carried senior titles. Few nurses (4.6%) had training in primary care. Those who have reported participating in CME were 91.6% doctors and 89.2% nurses. CME participation in doctors was more commonly reported by older doctors, females, those who were registered as a GP and those with intermediate or senior job titles. CME participation in nurses was more common among those with a bachelor degree or intermediate/senior job titles or those with longer working experience in the CHC.

CONCLUSION

Only half of doctors have bachelor degrees or are registered as GPs as their prime registration in the primary care workforce in China. The vast majority of CHC staff participated in CME but there is room for improvement in how CME is organised.

Bridging the Gaps Between Patients and Primary Care in China: A Nationwide Representative Survey

PURPOSE

China introduced a national policy of developing primary care in 2009, establishing 8,669 community health centers (CHCs) by 2014 that employed more than 300,000 staff. These facilities have been underused, however, because of public mistrust of physicians and overreliance on specialist care.

METHODS

We selected a stratified random sample of CHCs throughout China based on geographic distribution and urban-suburban ratios between September and December 2015. Two questionnaires, 1 for lead clinicians and 1 for primary care practitioners (PCPs), asked about the demographics of the clinic and its clinical and educational activities. Responses were obtained from 158 lead clinicians in CHCs and 3,580 PCPs (response rates of 84% and 86%, respectively).

RESULTS

CHCs employed a median of 8 physicians and 13 nurses, but only one-half of physicians were registered as PCPs, and few nurses had training specifically for primary care. Although virtually all clinics were equipped with stethoscopes (98%) and sphygmomanometers (97%), only 43% had ophthalmoscopes and 64% had facilities for gynecologic examination. Clinical care was selectively skewed toward certain chronic diseases. Physicians saw a median of 12.5 patients per day. Multivariate analysis showed that more patients were seen daily by physicians in CHCs organized by private hospitals and those having pharmacists and nurses.

CONCLUSIONS

Our survey confirms China's success in establishing a large, mostly young primary care workforce and providing ongoing professional training. Facilities are basic, however, with few clinics providing the comprehensive primary care required for a wide range of common physical and mental conditions. Use of CHCs by patients remains low.

Systematic review on the cost-effectiveness of self-management education programme for type 2 diabetes mellitus

OBJECTIVES

A review of cost-effectiveness studies on self-management education programmes for Type 2 diabetes mellitus.

METHODS

Cochrane, PubMed and PsycINFO databases were searched for papers published from January 2003 through September 2015. Further hand searching using the reference lists of included papers was carried out.

RESULTS

In total, 777 papers were identified and 12 papers were finally included. We found eight programmes whose effectiveness analyses were based on randomised controlled trials and whose costs were comprehensively estimated from the stated perspective. Among these eight, four studies showed a cost per unit reduction in clinical risk factors (HbA1c or BMI) of US$491 to US$7723 or cost per glycaemic symptom day avoided of US$39. In three studies the cost per QALY gained, as estimated from a life-time model, was less than US$50,000. However, one study found the programme was not cost-effective despite a gain in QALYs at the one-year follow up.

CONCLUSION

A small number of cost-effectiveness studies were identified with only eight of sufficiently good quality. The cost of a self-management education programme achieving reduction in clinical risk factors seems to be modest and is likely to be cost-effective in the long-term.

Possible Impact of Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio (ICER) on Decision Making for Cancer Screening in Hong Kong: A Systematic Review

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this paper was to critically review the literature on the cost effectiveness of cancer screening interventions, and examine the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) that may influence government recommendations on cancer screening strategies and funding for mass implementation in the Hong Kong healthcare system.

METHODS

We conducted a literature review of cost-effectiveness studies in the Hong Kong population related to cancer screening published up to 2015, through a hand search and database search of PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, and OVID Medline. Binary data on the government's decisions were obtained from the Cancer Expert Working Group, Department of Health. Mixed-effect logistic regression analysis was used to examine the impact of ICERs on decision making. Using Youden's index, an optimal ICER threshold value for positive decisions was examined by area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).

RESULTS

Eight studies reporting 30 cost-effectiveness pairwise comparisons of population-based cancer screening were identified. Most studies reported an ICER for a cancer screening strategy versus a comparator with outcomes in terms of cost per life-years (55.6 %), or cost per quality-adjusted life-years (55.6 %). Among comparisons with a mean ICER of US$102,931 (range 800-715,137), the increase in ICER value by 1000 was associated with decreased odds (odds ratio 0.990, 0.981-0.999; p = 0.033) of a positive recommendation. An optimal ICER value of US$61,600 per effectiveness unit yielded a high sensitivity of 90 % and specificity of 85 % for a positive recommendation. A lower ICER threshold value of below US$8044 per effectiveness unit was detected for a positive funding decision.

CONCLUSIONS

Linking published evidence to Government recommendations and practice on cancer screening, ICERs influence decisions on the adoption of health technologies in Hong Kong. The potential ICER threshold for recommendation in Hong Kong may be higher than those of developed countries.

Evaluation of the outcomes of care of nurse-led continence care clinics for Chinese patients with lower urinary tract symptoms, a 2-year prospective longitudinal study

AIM

The aim of this study was to evaluate the 24-month outcomes of a nurse-led continence care service for Chinese primary care patients with lower urinary tract symptoms.

BACKGROUND

Most studies evaluating the outcomes of continence care services have had short follow-up durations with limited knowledge on whether benefits are sustained beyond 12 months.

DESIGN

Twenty-four month cohort study.

METHODS

Two comparison groups were recruited: (1) Patients with lower urinary tract symptoms attending a nurse-led community-based continence care programme; (2) Primary care patients with lower urinary tract symptoms identified by screening, receiving usual medical care. Self-reported symptom severity, health-related quality of life, patient enablement and general health perception were measured at baseline and 24 months. Data collection occurred from March 2013-August 2015.

RESULTS

Baseline and 24-month data were available for 170 continence care and 158 usual care subjects. After controlling for baseline characteristics, the continence care group was observed to have greater reductions in symptom severity and larger improvements in disease-specific health-related quality of life, patient enablement and general health perception than the usual care group. Deterioration in the mental components of generic health-related quality of life was observed in the usual care group, but not in the continence care group.

CONCLUSION

Over 24 months, when compared with usual medical care, nurse-led continence care services were effective in reducing symptom severity and improving health-related quality of life, patient enablement and general health perception and provided protection against deterioration in the mental components of health-related quality of life in patients with lower urinary tract symptoms.

Evaluation of patient-reported outcomes data in structured diabetes education intervention: 2-year follow-up data of patient empowerment programme

To examine the effects of a structured group-based education programme, patient empowerment programme (PEP), compared with usual care on 2-year changes in patient-reported outcomes (PRO) in patients with diabetes mellitus (DM). A prospective observational study of 715 patients (PEP/non-PEP: 390/325) was conducted to complete the baseline PRO survey and followed up for 2 years. Health-related quality of life (HRQOL) was measured using the short-form 12 at baseline and annually at two follow-up assessments, which yielded physical and mental component summary and SF-6D preference-based scores. Perceived control over diabetes and general health status were measured using the patient enablement instrument (PEI) and global rating scale (GRS) at follow-ups. When compared with non-PEP, PEP participants significantly reported improvement in health condition (GRS score > 0; 24.55 % vs 10.16 %; odds ratio = 2.502; P = 0.018) in 2 years and enabled the self-perceived control over diabetes (PEI score > 0; 72.20 % vs 38.40 %; odds ratio = 3.25; P < 0.001) in 1-year follow-up but no sustained effects in year 2 (52.65 % vs 39.04 %; odds ratio = 1.366; P = 0.265). There were no significant differences between PEP and non-PEP groups in the changes in quality of life scores (all P > 0.05) at 1 year. Although HRQOL scores deteriorated over 2-year period in both groups, PEP participants reported similar changes in HRQOL scores to that of non-PEP. PEP for DM patients preserved self-perceived disease control and health condition, whereas PEP participants perceived their HRQOL similar to that of non-PEP participants. Findings of PRO should be considered alongside clinical outcomes when evaluating the overall benefits of PEP.

Quality of care and volume for patients with diabetes mellitus in the primary care setting: A population based retrospective cohort study

AIMS

To examine the association of patient volume with quality of diabetes care in the primary care setting.

METHODS

We analyzed population-based data from Hospital Authority administrative database using a Hong Kong representative sample of 187,031 diabetic patients managed in 74 primary care general outpatient clinics between 04/2011 and 03/2012. We assessed the associations between annual clinic-based patient volume and quality of care in terms of adherence to care criteria of process (HbA1c test, renal function test, full lipid profile, urine protein analysis, diabetic retinopathy screening, and appropriate drug prescription) and clinical outcomes (HbA1c⩽7%, BP⩽130/80mmHg, LDL-C⩽2.6mmol/L) of care criteria, with and without adjustment for patient and clinic characteristics.

RESULTS

Patient volume was associated with three of seven process of care criteria; however, when compared to clinics in higher volume quartiles, those in lowest-volume quartile had more odds of HbA1c test (odds ratios (OR): 0.781, 0.655 and 0.646 for quartile from 2 to 4, respectively), renal function test (OR: 0.357, 0.367 and 0.590 for quartile from 2 to 4, respectively), and full lipid profile test (OR: 0.508, 0.612 and 0.793 for quartile from 2 to 4, respectively). There was no significant association between patient volume and the standards of achieving of HbA1c, BP and LDL-C outcome targets.

CONCLUSIONS

Disparities in volume and quality of diabetes care were observed in public primary care setting. Lower patient volumes at clinic level were associated with greater adherence to three process criteria but a volume-outcome association was not present.

Effect of a structured diabetes education programme in primary care on hospitalizations and emergency department visits among people with Type 2 diabetes mellitus: results from the Patient Empowerment Programme

AIM

To assess whether a structured diabetes education programme, the Patient Empowerment Programme, was associated with a lower rate of all-cause hospitalization and emergency department visits in a population-based cohort of patients with Type 2 diabetes mellitus in primary care.

METHODS

A cohort of 24 250 patients was evaluated using a linked administrative database during 2009-2013. We selected 12 125 patients with Type 2 diabetes who had at least one Patient Empowerment Programme session attendance. Patients who did not participate in the Patient Empowerment Programme were matched one-to-one with patients who did, using the propensity score method. Hospitalization events and emergency department visits were the events of interest. Cox proportional hazard and negative binomial regressions were performed to estimate the hazard ratios for the initial event, and incidence rate ratios for the number of events.

RESULTS

During a median 30.5 months of follow-up, participants in the Patient Empowerment Programme had a lower incidence of an initial hospitalization event (22.1 vs 25.2%; hazard ratio 0.879; P < 0.001) and emergency department visit (40.5 vs 44%; hazard ratio 0.901; P < 0.001) than those who did not participate in the Patient Empowerment Programme. Participation in the Patient Empowerment Programme was associated with a significantly lower number of emergency department visits (incidence rate ratio 0.903; P < 0.001): 40.4 visits per 100 patients annually in those who did not participate in the Patient Empowerment Programme vs. 36.2 per 100 patients annually in those who did. There were significantly fewer hospitalization episodes (incidence rate ratio 0.854; P < 0.001): 20.0 hospitalizations per 100 patients annually in those who did not participate in the Patient Empowerment Programme vs. 16.9 hospitalizations per 100 patients annually in those who did.

CONCLUSIONS

Among patients with Type 2 diabetes, the Patient Empowerment Programme was shown to be effective in delaying the initial hospitalization event and in reducing their frequency.

Macrovascular and microvascular disease in obese patients with type 2 diabetes attending structured diabetes education program: a population-based propensity-matched cohort analysis of Patient Empowerment Programme (PEP)

Patient Empowerment Programme (PEP) in primary care was effective in preventing diabetes-related complications in patients with diabetes. Nevertheless, the effect of PEP on glycaemic control, weight control, and complications was unclear in obese type 2 diabetic patients. We aimed to assess whether PEP reduced all-cause mortality, first macrovascular and microvascular disease events. A cohort of 6372 obese type 2 diabetic patients without prior occurrence of macrovascular or microvascular disease events on or before baseline study recruitment date was linked to the administrative database from 2008 to 2013. Non-PEP participants were matched one-to-one with the PEP participants using propensity score method with respect to their baseline covariates. Cox proportional hazard regressions were performed to estimate the associations of the PEP intervention with the occurrence of first macrovascular or microvascular disease events and death from any cause, controlling for demographic and clinical characteristics. During a median 31.5 months of follow-up, 350 (PEP/non-PEP: 151/199) patients suffered from a first macrovascular or microvascular disease event while 95 patients (PEP/non-PEP: 34/61) died from any cause. After adjusting for confounding variables, PEP participants had lower incidence rates of all-cause mortality [hazard ratio (HR): 0.589, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.380-0.915, P = 0.018] and first macrovascular or microvascular disease events (HR: 0.782, 95 % CI 0.632-0.968, P = 0.024) than those with PEP. Enrolment to PEP was an effective approach in reducing all-cause mortality and first macrovascular or microvascular disease events in obese patients with type 2 diabetes.

Validation of the Disease-Specific Components of the Kidney Disease Quality of Life-36 (KDQOL-36) in Chinese Patients Undergoing Maintenance Dialysis

AIM

The aim of this study was to evaluate the validity, reliability and sensitivity of the disease-specific items of the Kidney Disease Quality of Life-36 (KDQOL-36) in Chinese patients undergoing maintenance dialysis.

METHODS

The content validity was assessed by content validity index (CVI) in ten subjects. 356 subjects were recruited for pilot psychometric testing. The internal construct validity was assessed by corrected item-subscale total correlation. Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) was used to confirm the factor structure. The convergent validity was assessed by Pearson's correlation test between the disease specific subscale scores and SF-12 version 2 Health Survey (SF-12 v2) scores. The reliability was assessed by the internal consistency (Cronbach's Alpha coefficient) and 2-week test-retest reliability (intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC)). The sensitivity was determined by performing known group comparisons by independent t-test.

RESULTS

The CVI on clarity and relevance was ≥ 0.9 for all items. Corrected item- total correlation scores were ≥0.4 for all, except an item related to problems with access site. CFA confirmed the 3-factor structure of the disease-specific component of the KDQOL-36. The correlation coefficients between the disease-specific domain scores and the SF-12 v2 physical and mental component summary scores ranged from 0.328 to 0.492. The reliability was good (Cronbach's alpha coefficients ranged from 0.810 to 0.931, ICC ranged from 0.792 to 0.924). Only the effect subscale was sensitive in detecting differences in HRQOL between haemodialysis and peritoneal dialysis patients, with effect size = 0.68.

CONCLUSION

The disease-specific items of the KDQOL-36 are a valid, reliable and sensitive measure to assess the health-related quality of life of Chinese patients on maintenance dialysis.