REFINE (REduced Frequency ImmuNE checkpoint inhibition in cancers): A multi-arm phase II basket trial testing reduced intensity immunotherapy across different cancers

BACKGROUND

Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICI) have revolutionised treating advanced cancers. ICI are administered intravenously every 2-6 weeks for up to 2 years, until cancer progression/unacceptable toxicity. Physiological efficacy is observed at lower doses than those used as standard of care (SOC). Pharmacodynamic studies indicate sustained target occupancy, despite a pharmacological half-life of 2-3 weeks. Reducing frequency of administration may be possible without compromising outcomes. The REFINE trial aims to limit individual patient exposure to ICI whilst maintaining efficacy, with potential benefits in quality of life and reduced drug treatment/attendance costs.

METHODS/DESIGN

REFINE is a randomised phase II, multi-arm, multi-stage (MAMS) adaptive basket trial investigating extended interval administration of ICIs. Eligible patients are those responding to conventionally dosed ICI at 12 weeks. In stage I, patients (n = 160 per tumour-specific cohort) will be randomly allocated (1:1) to receive maintenance ICI at SOC vs extended dose interval. REFINE is currently recruiting UK patients with locally advanced or metastatic renal cell carcinoma (RCC) who have tolerated and responded to initial nivolumab/ipilimumab, randomised to receive maintenance nivolumab SOC (480 mg 4 weekly) vs extended interval (480 mg 8 weekly). Additional tumour cohorts are planned. Subject to satisfactory outcomes (progression-free survival) stage II will investigate up to 5 different treatment intervals. Secondary outcome measures include overall survival, quality-of-life, treatment-related toxicity, mean incremental pathway costs and quality-adjusted life-years per patient. REFINE is funded by the Jon Moulton Charity Trust and Medical Research Council, sponsored by University College London (UCL), and coordinated by the MRC CTU at UCL. Trial Registration ISRCTN79455488. NCT04913025 EUDRACT #: 2021-002060-47. CTA 31330/0008/001-0001; MREC approval: 21/LO/0593. REFINE Protocol version 4.0.

Inequalities in life expectancy in Australia according to education level: a whole-of-population record linkage study

Background

Life expectancy in Australia is amongst the highest globally, but national estimates mask within-country inequalities. To monitor socioeconomic inequalities in health, many high-income countries routinely report life expectancy by education level. However in Australia, education-related gaps in life expectancy are not routinely reported because, until recently, the data required to produce these estimates have not been available. Using newly linked, whole-of-population data, we estimated education-related inequalities in adult life expectancy in Australia.

Methods

Using data from 2016 Australian Census linked to 2016-17 Death Registrations, we estimated age-sex-education-specific mortality rates and used standard life table methodology to calculate life expectancy. For men and women separately, we estimated absolute (in years) and relative (ratios) differences in life expectancy at ages 25, 45, 65 and 85 years according to education level (measured in five categories, from university qualification [highest] to no formal qualifications [lowest]).

Results

Data came from 14,565,910 Australian residents aged 25 years and older. At each age, those with lower levels of education had lower life expectancies. For men, the gap (highest vs. lowest level of education) was 9.1 (95 %CI: 8.8, 9.4) years at age 25, 7.3 (7.1, 7.5) years at age 45, 4.9 (4.7, 5.1) years at age 65 and 1.9 (1.8, 2.1) years at age 85. For women, the gap was 5.5 (5.1, 5.9) years at age 25, 4.7 (4.4, 5.0) years at age 45, 3.3 (3.1, 3.5) years at 65 and 1.6 (1.4, 1.8) years at age 85. Relative differences (comparing highest education level with each of the other levels) were larger for men than women and increased with age, but overall, revealed a 10–25 % reduction in life expectancy for those with the lowest compared to the highest education level.

Conclusions

Education-related inequalities in life expectancy from age 25 years in Australia are substantial, particularly for men. Those with the lowest education level have a life expectancy equivalent to the national average 15–20 years ago. These vast gaps indicate large potential for further gains in life expectancy at the national level and continuing opportunities to improve health equity.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12939-021-01513-3.

Exit strategies: optimising feasible surveillance for detection, elimination, and ongoing prevention of COVID-19 community transmission

BACKGROUND

Following implementation of strong containment measures, several countries and regions have low detectable community transmission of COVID-19. We developed an efficient, rapid, and scalable surveillance strategy to detect remaining COVID-19 community cases through exhaustive identification of every active transmission chain. We identified measures to enable early detection and effective management of any reintroduction of transmission once containment measures are lifted to ensure strong containment measures do not require reinstatement.

METHODS

We compared efficiency and sensitivity to detect community transmission chains through testing of the following: hospital cases; fever, cough and/or ARI testing at community/primary care; and asymptomatic testing; using surveillance evaluation methods and mathematical modelling, varying testing capacities, reproductive number (R) and weekly cumulative incidence of COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 respiratory symptoms using data from Australia. We assessed system requirements to identify all transmission chains and follow up all cases and primary contacts within each chain, per million population.

RESULTS

Assuming 20% of cases are asymptomatic and 30% of symptomatic COVID-19 cases present for testing, with R = 2.2, a median of 14 unrecognised community cases (8 infectious) occur when a transmission chain is identified through hospital surveillance versus 7 unrecognised cases (4 infectious) through community-based surveillance. The 7 unrecognised community upstream cases are estimated to generate a further 55-77 primary contacts requiring follow-up. The unrecognised community cases rise to 10 if 50% of cases are asymptomatic. Screening asymptomatic community members cannot exhaustively identify all cases under any of the scenarios assessed. The most important determinant of testing requirements for symptomatic screening is levels of non-COVID-19 respiratory illness. If 4% of the community have respiratory symptoms, and 1% of those with symptoms have COVID-19, exhaustive symptomatic screening requires approximately 11,600 tests/million population using 1/4 pooling, with 98% of cases detected (2% missed), given 99.9% sensitivity. Even with a drop in sensitivity to 70%, pooling was more effective at detecting cases than individual testing under all scenarios examined.

CONCLUSIONS

Screening all acute respiratory disease in the community, in combination with exhaustive and meticulous case and contact identification and management, enables appropriate early detection and elimination of COVID-19 community transmission. An important component is identification, testing, and management of all contacts, including upstream contacts (i.e. potential sources of infection for identified cases, and their related transmission chains). Pooling allows increased case detection when testing capacity is limited, even given reduced test sensitivity. Critical to the effectiveness of all aspects of surveillance is appropriate community engagement, messaging to optimise testing uptake and compliance with other measures.

Exit strategies: optimising feasible surveillance for detection, elimination, and ongoing prevention of COVID-19 community transmission

BACKGROUND

Following implementation of strong containment measures, several countries and regions have low detectable community transmission of COVID-19. We developed an efficient, rapid, and scalable surveillance strategy to detect remaining COVID-19 community cases through exhaustive identification of every active transmission chain. We identified measures to enable early detection and effective management of any reintroduction of transmission once containment measures are lifted to ensure strong containment measures do not require reinstatement.

METHODS

We compared efficiency and sensitivity to detect community transmission chains through testing of the following: hospital cases; fever, cough and/or ARI testing at community/primary care; and asymptomatic testing; using surveillance evaluation methods and mathematical modelling, varying testing capacities, reproductive number (R) and weekly cumulative incidence of COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 respiratory symptoms using data from Australia. We assessed system requirements to identify all transmission chains and follow up all cases and primary contacts within each chain, per million population.

RESULTS

Assuming 20% of cases are asymptomatic and 30% of symptomatic COVID-19 cases present for testing, with R = 2.2, a median of 14 unrecognised community cases (8 infectious) occur when a transmission chain is identified through hospital surveillance versus 7 unrecognised cases (4 infectious) through community-based surveillance. The 7 unrecognised community upstream cases are estimated to generate a further 55-77 primary contacts requiring follow-up. The unrecognised community cases rise to 10 if 50% of cases are asymptomatic. Screening asymptomatic community members cannot exhaustively identify all cases under any of the scenarios assessed. The most important determinant of testing requirements for symptomatic screening is levels of non-COVID-19 respiratory illness. If 4% of the community have respiratory symptoms, and 1% of those with symptoms have COVID-19, exhaustive symptomatic screening requires approximately 11,600 tests/million population using 1/4 pooling, with 98% of cases detected (2% missed), given 99.9% sensitivity. Even with a drop in sensitivity to 70%, pooling was more effective at detecting cases than individual testing under all scenarios examined.

CONCLUSIONS

Screening all acute respiratory disease in the community, in combination with exhaustive and meticulous case and contact identification and management, enables appropriate early detection and elimination of COVID-19 community transmission. An important component is identification, testing, and management of all contacts, including upstream contacts (i.e. potential sources of infection for identified cases, and their related transmission chains). Pooling allows increased case detection when testing capacity is limited, even given reduced test sensitivity. Critical to the effectiveness of all aspects of surveillance is appropriate community engagement, messaging to optimise testing uptake and compliance with other measures.

Setting the research agenda for living with and beyond cancer with comorbid illness: reflections on a research prioritisation exercise

BACKGROUND

People living with and beyond cancer are more likely to have comorbid conditions and poorer mental and physical health, but there is a dearth of in-depth research exploring the psychosocial needs of people experiencing cancer and comorbid chronic conditions. A patient partnership approach to research prioritisation and planning can ensure outcomes meaningful to those affected and can inform policy and practice accordingly, but can be challenging.

METHODS

We aimed to inform priorities for qualitative inquiry into the experiences and support needs of people living with and beyond cancer with comorbid illness using a partnership approach. A three-step process including a patient workshop to develop a consultation document, online consultation with patients, and academic expert consultation was carried out. The research prioritisation process was also appraised and reflected upon.

RESULTS

Six people attended the workshop, ten responded online and eight academic experts commented on the consultation document. Five key priorities were identified for exploration in subsequent qualitative studies, including the diagnostic journey, the burden of symptoms, managing medications, addressing the needs of informal carers, and service provision. Limitations of patient involvement and reflections on procedural ethics, and the challenge of making measurable differences to patient outcomes were discussed.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings from this research prioritisation exercise will inform planned qualitative work to explore patients' experiences of living with and beyond cancer with comorbid illness. Including patient partners in the research prioritisation process adds focus and relevance, and feeds into future work and recommendations to improve health and social care for this group of patients. Reflections on the consultation process contribute to a broadening of understanding the field of patient involvement.

Identifying long-term psychological distress from single measures: evidence from a nationally representative longitudinal survey of the Australian population

BACKGROUND

Single time-point assessments of psychological distress are often used to indicate chronic mental health problems, but the validity of this approach is unclear. The aims of this study were to investigate how a single assessment of distress relates to longer-term assessment and quantify misclassification from using single measures to indicate chronic distress.

METHODS

Data came from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia Survey, a nationally representative study of Australian adults. Psychological distress, measured with the Kessler10 and categorised into low (scores:10- < 12), mild (12- < 16), moderate (16- < 22) and high (22-50), has been assessed in the Survey biennially since wave 7. Among respondents who were aged ≥25 years and participated in all waves in which distress was measured, we describe agreement in distress categories, and using a mixed linear model adjusting for age and sex we estimate change in scores, over a two-, four-, six- and eight-year follow-up period. We applied weights, benchmarked to the Australian population, to all analyses.

RESULTS

Two-years following initial assessment, proportions within identical categories of distress were 66.0% for low, 54.5% for mild, 44.0% for moderate and 50.3% for high, while 94.1% of those with low distress initially had low/mild distress and 81.4% with high distress initially had moderate/high distress. These patterns did not change materially as follow-up time increased. Over the full eight-year period, 77.3% of individuals with high distress initially reported high distress on ≥1 follow-up occasion. Age-and sex- adjusted change in K10 scores over a two-year period was 1.1, 0.5, - 0.7 and - 4.9 for low, mild, moderate and high distress, respectively, and also did not change materially as follow-up time increased.

CONCLUSION

In the absence of repeated measures, single assessments are useful proxies for chronic distress. Our estimates could be used in bias analyses to quantify the magnitude of the bias resulting from use of single assessments to indicate chronic distress.

Future Burden of Cancer Attributable to Current Modifiable Behaviours: A Pooled Study of Seven Australian Cohorts

Background: The Population Attributable Fraction (PAF) quantifies the fraction of cancer cases attributable to specific exposures. PAF estimates for the future burden of cancer preventable through modifications to current exposure distributions are lacking. Previous PAF studies have also not compared population subgroup differences. Aim: To apply a novel PAF method and i) assess the future burden of cancer in Australia preventable through modifications to current behaviors, and ii) compare the distribution of the preventable cancer burden between population subgroups. Methods: We harmonized and pooled data from seven Australian cohort studies (N=367058) and linked them to national registries to identify cancers and deaths. We estimated the strength of the associations between behaviors and cancer incidence and death using a proportional hazards model, adjusting for age, sex, study and other risk factors. Exposure prevalence was estimated from contemporary national health surveys. We then combined these estimates to calculate PAFs and their 95% confidence intervals for both individual and joint behavior modifications using a novel method accounting for competing risk of death and risk factor interdependence. We also compared PAFs between population subgroups by calculating the 95% confidence interval of the difference in PAF estimates. Results: During the first 10 years of follow-up, there were 22078 deaths and 27483 incident cancers, including 2025 lung, 3471 colorectal, 640 premenopausal and 2632 postmenopausal breast cancers. The leading preventable cause for lung cancer is current smoking (PAF = 53.7%), for colorectal and postmenopausal breast cancer body fatness or BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2 (PAF = 11.1% and 10.9% respectively), and for premenopausal breast cancer regular alcohol intake (PAF = 12.3%). Three in five lung cancers, but only one in five colorectal and breast cancers, are jointly attributable to potentially modifiable exposures, which also included physical inactivity and inadequate fruit intake for lung, excessive alcohol intake and current smoking for colorectal, regular alcohol intake and current menopausal hormone therapy for 1 year or more for postmenopausal breast and current oral contraceptive use for 5 years or more for premenopausal breast cancer. The cancer burden attributable to modifiable factors is markedly higher in certain population subgroups, including men (lung, colorectal), people with risk factor clustering (lung, colorectal, breast), and individuals with low educational attainment (lung, breast). Conclusion: We provided up-to-date estimates of the future Australian cancer burden attributable to modifiable risk factors, and identified population subgroups that experience the highest preventable burden. Application of the novel PAF method can inform timely public health action to improve health and health equity, by identifying those with the most to gain from programs that support behavior change and early detection.

The Experience of Living With and Beyond Cancer With Comorbid Illness: A Qualitative Systematic Review

Background: There is a need to explore the needs of the growing number of people living with and beyond cancer with additional long term chronic conditions, with implications for cancer survivorship management and support. Aim: This review aims to identify the qualitative evidence on the experience of cancer and comorbid illness from the perspective of patients, carers and health care professionals to identify psycho-social support needs, experience of health care, and to highlight areas where more research is needed. Methods: PRISMA guidance was used to review the evidence. Relevant research databases were searched using an exhaustive list of search terms. Two reviewers independently screened titles and abstracts and discussed variations. Included articles were subject to quality appraisal before data extraction of article characteristics and findings. Thematic synthesis of extracted findings was undertaken following Thomas and Harden's prescribed method. Results: 29 articles were included in the review covering a range of cancer types and comorbid conditions; with varying time since cancer diagnosis and apparent severity of disease for both cancer and other conditions. Studies are set in developed countries and include the views of patients and professionals but not carers. Few studies focused exclusively on the experience of living with comorbid conditions alongside cancer. Key themes identified included: the interaction between cancer and comorbid conditions; the added symptom burden; illness identities and ageing; self-management; prioritizing conditions, and treatment decision-making. Conclusion: In addition to a better understanding of the complex experience of such illness to illuminate developing models of patient-centered care, the review will combine with patient engagement work to inform an interview study with the defined patient group.

Hormone replacement therapy and the sensitivity and specificity of breast cancer screening: a review

Background The use of hormone replacement therapy (HRT) is prevalent in the age group invited to routine breast cancer screening in many countries. Previous publications have reported reduced sensitivity and specificity of mammographic breast cancer screening associated with current use of HRT.

Objectives To review the epidemiological evidence for the relation between use of HRT and the risk of having breast cancer diagnosed between screens (interval breast cancer—sensitivity) and being recalled for assessment after initial mammography with no diagnosis of breast cancer at that screen (false positive recall—specificity).

Methods Overview of published literature.

Results Eight studies were identified, providing a total of 367 interval cancers and 8878 cases of false positive recall, in women of 50 and over. Overall, the studies showed an increased risk of interval cancer and false positive recall in current users of HRT compared with non-users. Only one study accounted for the essential confounding factors of age and menopause. Furthermore, information on duration and recency of HRT use was not available for most studies.

Conclusions Studies to date indicate that women using HRT are more likely to experience reduced sensitivity and specificity of breast cancer screening, compared with women not using HRT. However, because results have not been adjusted for crucial confounding factors, the magnitude of these effects is uncertain.

How weight change is modelled in population studies can affect research findings: empirical results from a large-scale cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To investigate how results of the association between education and weight change vary when weight change is defined and modelled in different ways.

DESIGN

Longitudinal cohort study.

PARTICIPANTS

60 404 men and women participating in the Social, Environmental and Economic Factors (SEEF) subcomponent of the 45 and Up Study-a population-based cohort study of people aged 45 years or older, residing in New South Wales, Australia.

OUTCOME MEASURES

The main exposure was self-reported education, categorised into four groups. The outcome was annual weight change, based on change in self-reported weight between the 45 and Up Study baseline questionnaire and SEEF questionnaire (completed an average of 3.3 years later). Weight change was modelled in four different ways: absolute change (kg) modelled as (1) a continuous variable and (2) a categorical variable (loss, maintenance and gain), and relative (%) change modelled as (3) a continuous variable and (4) a categorical variable. Different cut-points for defining weight-change categories were also tested.

RESULTS

When weight change was measured categorically, people with higher levels of education (compared with no school certificate) were less likely to lose or to gain weight. When weight change was measured as the average of a continuous measure, a null relationship between education and annual weight change was observed. No material differences in the education and weight-change relationship were found when comparing weight change defined as an absolute (kg) versus a relative (%) measure. Results of the logistic regression were sensitive to different cut-points for defining weight-change categories.

CONCLUSIONS

Using average weight change can obscure important directional relationship information and, where possible, categorical outcome measurements should be included in analyses.

Mental health services for children exposed to armed conflict: Médecins Sans Frontières' experience in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Iraq and the occupied Palestinian territory

BACKGROUND

Armed conflict has broad-ranging impacts on the mental health and wellbeing of children and adolescents. Mental health needs greatly exceed service provision in conflict settings, particularly for these age groups. The provision and targeting of appropriate services requires better understanding of the characteristics and requirements of children and adolescents exposed to armed conflict.

METHODS

Routine patient and programme monitoring data were analysed for patients <20 years of age attending mental health services provided by Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) in three countries affected by armed conflict: the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Iraq and the occupied Palestinian territory (oPt). The demographic characteristics, presenting mental health complaint, attributed precipitating event, services provided and short-term outcomes for mental health services users in each country are described.

RESULTS

Between 2009 and 2012, 3025 individuals <20 years of age presented for care in DRC and Iraq, and in 2012 in oPt, constituting 14%, 17.5% and 51%, respectively, of all presentations to MSF mental health services in those three countries. The most common precipitating event was sexual violence in DRC (36.5%), domestic violence in Iraq (17.8%) and incarceration or detention in oPt (33%). Armed conflict-related precipitants were reported by 25.9%, 55.0% and 76.4% of youths in DRC, Iraq and oPt, respectively. The most common presenting complaints in children and adolescents were anxiety-related, followed by mood-related, behaviour-related and somatisation problems; these varied according to country and precipitating event. Although a high proportion (45.7%) left programmes early, 97% of those who completed care self-reported improvement in their presenting complaint.

CONCLUSIONS

Brief trauma-focused therapy, the current MSF mental health therapeutic intervention, appears to be effective in reducing symptoms arising from the experience of trauma. Although inferences on outcomes are limited by high default rates, this provides a feasible tool for addressing the mental health needs of children exposed to armed conflict. Priorities for future research include understanding why children and adolescents constitute a small proportion of patients in some programmes, why many leave care early and how to address these issues, but this research must occur within the context of efforts to provide access to mental health services for children.

Pharmaceutical residues in wastewater treatment works effluents and their impact on receiving river water

Various pharmaceutical residues are being discharged from wastewater treatment works (WTW) effluents, the impact of which on river water quality is of high relevance to environmental risk assessment. The concentrations of eleven pharmaceutical compounds were determined in three WTWs in England, and the river Ouse receiving effluents from Scaynes Hill WTW. Results show that five compounds propranolol, sulfamethoxazole, carbamazepine, indomethacin and diclofenac were detected in all wastewater and river water samples, with carbamazepine showing the highest concentrations (up to 2336 ng L(-1)) in WTW influent. Different compounds were removed to different extent in the WTWs, varying from 43 to 92%, with the highest performance obtained by the WTW with tertiary treatment (sand filtration). The pharmaceutical residues from Scaynes Hill WTW were eventually discharged into the river Ouse, causing an elevation in their concentrations downstream of the outfall. This was confirmed by the good agreement between measured concentrations and those predicted by a simple dilution model.

Relationship of height, weight and body mass index to the risk of hip and knee replacements in middle-aged women

OBJECTIVES

To examine the effect of height, weight and body mass index (BMI) on the risk of hip and knee replacement in middle-aged women.

METHODS

In a prospective cohort study 490 532 women aged 50-69 yrs who were recruited in the UK in 1996-2001 were followed over 2.9 yrs for incident primary hip and knee replacements.

RESULTS

Height, weight and BMI were all associated with the risk of hip and knee replacement. Comparing the tallest group (>or=170 cm) with the shortest (<155 cm) the relative risks were 1.90 (95%CI 1.55-2.32) for hip replacement and 1.55 (95%CI 1.19-2.00) for knee replacement. Comparing the heaviest group (>or=75 kg) with the lightest (<60 kg) the relative risks of hip and knee replacement were 2.37 (95%CI 2.04-2.75) and 9.71 (95%CI 7.39-12.77), respectively. Comparing obese women (BMI >or= 30 kg/m(2)) to women with a BMI < 22.5 kg/m(2), the relative risks for hip and knee replacement were 2.47 (95%CI 2.11-2.89) and 10.51 (95%CI 7.85-14.08), respectively. These effects did not vary according to age, education, alcohol and tobacco consumption, or with use of hormonal therapies. Currently, an estimated 27% of hip replacements and 69% of knee replacements in middle-aged women in the UK are attributable to obesity.

CONCLUSION

In middle-aged women, the risk of having a hip or knee replacement increases with both increasing height and increasing BMI. From a clinical perspective, relatively small increases in average BMI among middle-aged women are likely to have a substantial impact on the already increasing rates of joint replacement in the UK.

Predictors of outcome of mammography in the National Health Service Breast Screening Programme

BACKGROUND

Little is known about the factors influencing the risk of recall for assessment, invasive diagnostic procedures, and early rescreening after screening mammography.

METHODS

From June 1996 to March 1998 women attending screening at 10 National Health Service Breast Screening Programme (NHSBSP) centres completed a self administered questionnaire and were followed up for their screening outcome.

RESULTS

1969 (3.3%) out of 60 443 women aged 50-64 who had never used hormone replacement therapy (HRT) were recalled for assessment but were not diagnosed with breast cancer (defined here as false positive recall). After adjustment for the variation between centres, false positive recall was decreased significantly among women who were likely to have had a previous NHSBSP mammogram (odds ratio (OR) 0.49, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.38 to 0.63 for likely versus unlikely), who were postmenopausal (OR 0.65, 95% CI 0.56 to 0.76 for postmenopausal v premenopausal) and increased significantly for women reporting previous breast surgery (OR 1.64, 95% CI 1.42 to 1.89). Although false positive recall decreased significantly with parity and increasing body mass index, these effects were not large and no significant variation was found with age, education, family history of breast cancer, oral contraceptive use, sterilisation, exercise, smoking, or alcohol consumption. Altogether 655 (1.1%) women had an invasive diagnostic procedure; no personal characteristics were predictive of this outcome, 286(0.5%) were referred for early rescreening, and this was increased significantly by nulliparity and a family history of breast cancer.

INTERPRETATION

Premenopausal women, those without a previous NHSBSP mammogram, and women with previous breast surgery have an increased risk of false positive recall by the NHSBSP.

Alcohol, tobacco and breast cancer--collaborative reanalysis of individual data from 53 epidemiological studies, including 58,515 women with breast cancer and 95,067 women without the disease

Alcohol and tobacco consumption are closely correlated and published results on their association with breast cancer have not always allowed adequately for confounding between these exposures. Over 80% of the relevant information worldwide on alcohol and tobacco consumption and breast cancer were collated, checked and analysed centrally. Analyses included 58,515 women with invasive breast cancer and 95,067 controls from 53 studies. Relative risks of breast cancer were estimated, after stratifying by study, age, parity and, where appropriate, women's age when their first child was born and consumption of alcohol and tobacco. The average consumption of alcohol reported by controls from developed countries was 6.0 g per day, i.e. about half a unit/drink of alcohol per day, and was greater in ever-smokers than never-smokers, (8.4 g per day and 5.0 g per day, respectively). Compared with women who reported drinking no alcohol, the relative risk of breast cancer was 1.32 (1.19-1.45, P<0.00001) for an intake of 35-44 g per day alcohol, and 1.46 (1.33-1.61, P<0.00001) for >/=45 g per day alcohol. The relative risk of breast cancer increased by 7.1% (95% CI 5.5-8.7%; P<0.00001) for each additional 10 g per day intake of alcohol, i.e. for each extra unit or drink of alcohol consumed on a daily basis. This increase was the same in ever-smokers and never-smokers (7.1% per 10 g per day, P<0.00001, in each group). By contrast, the relationship between smoking and breast cancer was substantially confounded by the effect of alcohol. When analyses were restricted to 22 255 women with breast cancer and 40 832 controls who reported drinking no alcohol, smoking was not associated with breast cancer (compared to never-smokers, relative risk for ever-smokers=1.03, 95% CI 0.98-1.07, and for current smokers=0.99, 0.92-1.05). The results for alcohol and for tobacco did not vary substantially across studies, study designs, or according to 15 personal characteristics of the women; nor were the findings materially confounded by any of these factors. If the observed relationship for alcohol is causal, these results suggest that about 4% of the breast cancers in developed countries are attributable to alcohol. In developing countries, where alcohol consumption among controls averaged only 0.4 g per day, alcohol would have a negligible effect on the incidence of breast cancer. In conclusion, smoking has little or no independent effect on the risk of developing breast cancer; the effect of alcohol on breast cancer needs to be interpreted in the context of its beneficial effects, in moderation, on cardiovascular disease and its harmful effects on cirrhosis and cancers of the mouth, larynx, oesophagus and liver.

Agreement between general practice prescription data and self-reported use of hormone replacement therapy and treatment for various illnesses

BACKGROUND

Epidemiological studies of the effects of hormone replacement therapy (HRT) often rely on exposure data and information on past health from self-administered questionnaires. The accuracy with which women report current use of HRT and the specific preparation in use is not known. This study aims to compare aspects of self-reported use of HRT and treatment for various conditions with data from general practice prescription records.

METHODS

Reported questionnaire data on use of HRT were compared with those on the general practice prescription record for 570 women participating in the Million Women Study from two general practices in the UK.

RESULTS

There was excellent agreement between data from the self-administered questionnaire and the prescription record: 96% agreement (kappa = 0.91) for current use of HRT, 95% agreement (kappa = 0.90) for any use of HRT during the period covered by the prescription record, and 97% agreement (kappa = 0.95) among current users for whether the HRT preparation contained oestrogen alone, combined oestrogen/progestogen, or some other constituents. Among former HRT users who provided questionnaire information on the preparation they used most recently, there was 69% agreement on the proprietary preparation used and 97% agreement (kappa = 0.93) on the hormonal constituents used. Agreement between reported treatment for various conditions and the presence of a prescription appropriate for that condition ranged from 89-99% (kappa 0.53-0.92), and was highest for thyroid disease and asthma.

CONCLUSION

Important aspects of use of HRT, such as type of preparation currently being used, are reported very reliably by women completing a self-administered questionnaire.