Distinguishing between different percolation regimes in noisy dynamic networks with an application to epileptic seizures

In clinical neuroscience, epileptic seizures have been associated with the sudden emergence of coupled activity across the brain. The resulting functional networks-in which edges indicate strong enough coupling between brain regions-are consistent with the notion of percolation, which is a phenomenon in complex networks corresponding to the sudden emergence of a giant connected component. Traditionally, work has concentrated on noise-free percolation with a monotonic process of network growth, but real-world networks are more complex. We develop a class of random graph hidden Markov models (RG-HMMs) for characterizing percolation regimes in noisy, dynamically evolving networks in the presence of edge birth and edge death. This class is used to understand the type of phase transitions undergone in a seizure, and in particular, distinguishing between different percolation regimes in epileptic seizures. We develop a hypothesis testing framework for inferring putative percolation mechanisms. As a necessary precursor, we present an EM algorithm for estimating parameters from a sequence of noisy networks only observed at a longitudinal subsampling of time points. Our results suggest that different types of percolation can occur in human seizures. The type inferred may suggest tailored treatment strategies and provide new insights into the fundamental science of epilepsy.

Early Introduction and Rise of the Omicron Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Variant in Highly Vaccinated University Populations

BACKGROUND

The Omicron variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is highly transmissible in vaccinated and unvaccinated populations. The dynamics that govern its establishment and propensity toward fixation (reaching 100% frequency in the SARS-CoV-2 population) in communities remain unknown. Here, we describe the dynamics of Omicron at 3 institutions of higher education (IHEs) in the greater Boston area.

METHODS

We use diagnostic and variant-specifying molecular assays and epidemiological analytical approaches to describe the rapid dominance of Omicron following its introduction into 3 IHEs with asymptomatic surveillance programs.

RESULTS

We show that the establishment of Omicron at IHEs precedes that of the state and region and that the time to fixation is shorter at IHEs (9.5-12.5 days) than in the state (14.8 days) or region. We show that the trajectory of Omicron fixation among university employees resembles that of students, with a 2- to 3-day delay. Finally, we compare cycle threshold values in Omicron vs Delta variant cases on college campuses and identify lower viral loads among college affiliates who harbor Omicron infections.

CONCLUSIONS

We document the rapid takeover of the Omicron variant at IHEs, reaching near-fixation within the span of 9.5-12.5 days despite lower viral loads, on average, than the previously dominant Delta variant. These findings highlight the transmissibility of Omicron, its propensity to rapidly dominate small populations, and the ability of robust asymptomatic surveillance programs to offer early insights into the dynamics of pathogen arrival and spread.

ViLoN-a multi-layer network approach to data integration demonstrated for patient stratification

With more and more data being collected, modern network representations exploit the complementary nature of different data sources as well as similarities across patients. We here introduce the Variation of information fused Layers of Networks algorithm (ViLoN), a novel network-based approach for the integration of multiple molecular profiles. As a key innovation, it directly incorporates prior functional knowledge (KEGG, GO). In the constructed network of patients, patients are represented by networks of pathways, comprising genes that are linked by common functions and joint regulation in the disease. Patient stratification remains a key challenge both in the clinic and for research on disease mechanisms and treatments. We thus validated ViLoN for patient stratification on multiple data type combinations (gene expression, methylation, copy number), showing substantial improvements and consistently competitive performance for all. Notably, the incorporation of prior functional knowledge was critical for good results in the smaller cohorts (rectum adenocarcinoma: 90, esophageal carcinoma: 180), where alternative methods failed.

Estimation of local time-varying reproduction numbers in noisy surveillance data

A valuable metric in understanding local infectious disease dynamics is the local time-varying reproduction number, i.e. the expected number of secondary local cases caused by each infected individual. Accurate estimation of this quantity requires distinguishing cases arising from local transmission from those imported from elsewhere. Realistically, we can expect identification of cases as local or imported to be imperfect. We study the propagation of such errors in estimation of the local time-varying reproduction number. In addition, we propose a Bayesian framework for estimation of the true local time-varying reproduction number when identification errors exist. And we illustrate the practical performance of our estimator through simulation studies and with outbreaks of COVID-19 in Hong Kong and Victoria, Australia. This article is part of the theme issue 'Technical challenges of modelling real-life epidemics and examples of overcoming these'.

Estimation of heterogeneous instantaneous reproduction numbers with application to characterize SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Massachusetts counties

The reproductive number is an important metric that has been widely used to quantify the infectiousness of communicable diseases. The time-varying instantaneous reproductive number is useful for monitoring the real-time dynamics of a disease to inform policy making for disease control. Local estimation of this metric, for instance at a county or city level, allows for more targeted interventions to curb transmission. However, simultaneous estimation of local reproductive numbers must account for potential sources of heterogeneity in these time-varying quantities-a key element of which is human mobility. We develop a statistical method that incorporates human mobility between multiple regions for estimating region-specific instantaneous reproductive numbers. The model also can account for exogenous cases imported from outside of the regions of interest. We propose two approaches to estimate the reproductive numbers, with mobility data used to adjust incidence in the first approach and to inform a formal priori distribution in the second (Bayesian) approach. Through a simulation study, we show that region-specific reproductive numbers can be well estimated if human mobility is reasonably well approximated by available data. We use this approach to estimate the instantaneous reproductive numbers of COVID-19 for 14 counties in Massachusetts using CDC case report data and the human mobility data collected by SafeGraph. We found that, accounting for mobility, our method produces estimates of reproductive numbers that are distinct across counties. In contrast, independent estimation of county-level reproductive numbers tends to produce similar values, as trends in county case-counts for the state are fairly concordant. These approaches can also be used to estimate any heterogeneity in transmission, for instance, age-dependent instantaneous reproductive number estimates. As people are more mobile and interact frequently in ways that permit transmission, it is important to account for this in the estimation of the reproductive number.

Estimation of local time-varying reproduction numbers in noisy surveillance data

A valuable metric in understanding local infectious disease dynamics is the local time-varying reproduction number, i.e. the expected number of secondary local cases caused by each infected individual. Accurate estimation of this quantity requires distinguishing cases arising from local transmission from those imported from elsewhere. Realistically, we can expect identification of cases as local or imported to be imperfect. We study the propagation of such errors in estimation of the local time-varying reproduction number. In addition, we propose a Bayesian framework for estimation of the true local time-varying reproduction number when identification errors exist. And we illustrate the practical performance of our estimator through simulation studies and with outbreaks of COVID-19 in Hong Kong and Victoria, Australia.

Projecting Quarantine Utilization During a Pandemic

Objectives. To develop an approach to project quarantine needs during an outbreak, particularly for communally housed individuals who interact with outside individuals. Methods. We developed a method that uses basic surveillance data to do short-term projections of future quarantine needs. The development of this method was rigorous, but it is conceptually simple and easy to implement and allows one to anticipate potential superspreading events. We demonstrate how this method can be used with data from the fall 2020 semester of a large urban university in Boston, Massachusetts, that provided quarantine housing for students living on campus in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Our approach accounted for potentially infectious interactions between individuals living in university housing and those who did not. Results. Our approach was able to accurately project 10-day-ahead quarantine utilization for on-campus students in a large urban university. Our projections were most accurate when we anticipated weekend superspreading events around holidays. Conclusions. We provide an easy-to-use software tool to project quarantine utilization for institutions that can account for mixing with outside populations. This software tool has potential application for universities, corrections facilities, and the military. (Am J Public Health. 2022;112(2):277-283. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2021.306573).

Assessment of a COVID-19 Control Plan on an Urban University Campus During a Second Wave of the Pandemic

Importance

The COVID-19 pandemic has severely disrupted US educational institutions. Given potential adverse financial and psychosocial effects of campus closures, many institutions developed strategies to reopen campuses in the fall 2020 semester despite the ongoing threat of COVID-19. However, many institutions opted to have limited campus reopening to minimize potential risk of spread of SARS-CoV-2.

Objective

To analyze how Boston University (BU) fully reopened its campus in the fall of 2020 and controlled COVID-19 transmission despite worsening transmission in Boston, Massachusetts.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This multifaceted intervention case series was conducted at a large urban university campus in Boston, Massachusetts, during the fall 2020 semester. The BU response included a high-throughput SARS-CoV-2 polymerase chain reaction testing facility with capacity to deliver results in less than 24 hours; routine asymptomatic screening for COVID-19; daily health attestations; adherence monitoring and feedback; robust contact tracing, quarantine, and isolation in on-campus facilities; face mask use; enhanced hand hygiene; social distancing recommendations; dedensification of classrooms and public places; and enhancement of all building air systems. Data were analyzed from December 20, 2020, to January 31, 2021.

Main Outcomes and Measures

SARS-CoV-2 diagnosis confirmed by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction of anterior nares specimens and sources of transmission, as determined through contact tracing.

Results

Between August and December 2020, BU conducted more than 500 000 COVID-19 tests and identified 719 individuals with COVID-19, including 496 students (69.0%), 11 faculty (1.5%), and 212 staff (29.5%). Overall, 718 individuals, or 1.8% of the BU community, had test results positive for SARS-CoV-2. Of 837 close contacts traced, 86 individuals (10.3%) had test results positive for COVID-19. BU contact tracers identified a source of transmission for 370 individuals (51.5%), with 206 individuals (55.7%) identifying a non-BU source. Among 5 faculty and 84 staff with SARS-CoV-2 with a known source of infection, most reported a transmission source outside of BU (all 5 faculty members [100%] and 67 staff members [79.8%]). A BU source was identified by 108 of 183 undergraduate students with SARS-CoV-2 (59.0%) and 39 of 98 graduate students with SARS-CoV-2 (39.8%); notably, no transmission was traced to a classroom setting.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this case series of COVID-19 transmission, BU used a coordinated strategy of testing, contact tracing, isolation, and quarantine, with robust management and oversight, to control COVID-19 transmission in an urban university setting.

Sensor-based localization of epidemic sources on human mobility networks

We investigate the source detection problem in epidemiology, which is one of the most important issues for control of epidemics. Mathematically, we reformulate the problem as one of identifying the relevant component in a multivariate Gaussian mixture model. Focusing on the study of cholera and diseases with similar modes of transmission, we calibrate the parameters of our mixture model using human mobility networks within a stochastic, spatially explicit epidemiological model for waterborne disease. Furthermore, we adopt a Bayesian perspective, so that prior information on source location can be incorporated (e.g., reflecting the impact of local conditions). Posterior-based inference is performed, which permits estimates in the form of either individual locations or regions. Importantly, our estimator only requires first-arrival times of the epidemic by putative observers, typically located only at a small proportion of nodes. The proposed method is demonstrated within the context of the 2000-2002 cholera outbreak in the KwaZulu-Natal province of South Africa.

Tracking the source of an epidemic outbreak is of crucial importance as it allows for identification of communities where control efforts should be focused for both short and long-term management and control of the disease. However, such identification is often problematic, time-consuming, and data-intensive. Recently network-based analysis approaches have been established for source detection to account for complex modern spreading, driven substantially by human mobility. Here we develop a probabilistic framework for waterborne disease, that allows investigators to infer the community or the region sparking an outbreak based on a sparse surveillance network. The framework can integrate prior information on the likelihood of a community being the source, for instance as a function of population size or hygiene conditions. Furthermore, we assign an accuracy measure to the resulting source estimate, which is crucial for its practical usability. We test the method in the context of the 2000-2002 cholera outbreak in the KwaZulu-Natal province with promising results. Moreover, we outline a series of guidelines in terms of data needs and preliminary operations to implement the proposed framework in practice.

Convex combination sequence kernel association test for rare-variant studies

We propose a novel variant set test for rare-variant association studies, which leverages multiple single-nucleotide variant (SNV) annotations. Our approach optimizes a convex combination of different sequence kernel association test (SKAT) statistics, where each statistic is constructed from a different annotation and combination weights are optimized through a multiple kernel learning algorithm. The combination test statistic is evaluated empirically through data splitting. In simulations, we find our method preserves type I error at α = 2.5 × 1 0 - 6 and has greater power than SKAT(-O) when SNV weights are not misspecified and sample sizes are large ( N ≥ 5 , 000 ). We utilize our method in the Framingham Heart Study (FHS) to identify SNV sets associated with fasting glucose. While we are unable to detect any genome-wide significant associations between fasting glucose and 4-kb windows of rare variants ( p < 1 0 - 7 ) in 6,419 FHS participants, our method identifies suggestive associations between fasting glucose and rare variants near ROCK2 ( p = 2.1 × 1 0 - 5 ) and within CPLX1 ( p = 5.3 × 1 0 - 5 ). These two genes were previously reported to be involved in obesity-mediated insulin resistance and glucose-induced insulin secretion by pancreatic beta-cells, respectively. These findings will need to be replicated in other cohorts and validated by functional genomic studies.

Feasibility, preliminary efficacy, and safety of a randomized clinical trial for Asian Women's Action for Resilience and Empowerment (AWARE) intervention

To our knowledge, Asian Women's Action for Resilience and Empowerment (AWARE) is the first gender- and culture-specific and trauma-informed group psychotherapy intervention designed for Asian-American young women with histories of interpersonal violence and trauma and/or Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) diagnosis. We employed a 2-arm randomized controlled trial. Sixty-three women who met clinical criteria for trauma were randomized to the intervention (n = 32) or waitlist control (n = 31) group. We documented retention rates, preliminary efficacy for sexual risk behaviors and depressive symptoms (overall and stratified by PTSD at baseline), and safety in terms of suicidality at baseline, postintervention, and 3-month follow-up. AWARE demonstrated high retention rates, in that 87.50% of those enrolled in the program completed at least 6 out of the 8 sessions. Although there were no differences overall for sexual risk behaviors or depressive symptoms, among women with PTSD, significant reductions in depressive symptoms were observed in treatment compared to control, with an effect size of .84. Suicidal ideation and intent were reduced in both the treatment and control groups, with no attempts during the trial. AWARE is uniquely tailored to serve a pressing clinical need. These results support its feasibility and safety. A large-scale trial targeted at women with PTSD is recommended to further explore the efficacy of AWARE. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2019 APA, all rights reserved).

A Paradigm for Longitudinal Complex Network Analysis over Patient Cohorts in Neuroscience

The study of complex brain networks, where structural or functional connections are evaluated to create an interconnected representation of the brain, has grown tremendously over the past decade. Much of the statistical network science tools for analyzing brain networks have been developed for cross-sectional studies and for the analysis of static networks. However, with both an increase in longitudinal study designs, as well as an increased interest in the neurological network changes that occur during the progression of a disease, sophisticated methods for longitudinal brain network analysis are needed. We propose a paradigm for longitudinal brain network analysis over patient cohorts, with the key challenge being the adaptation of Stochastic Actor-Oriented Models (SAOMs) to the neuroscience setting. SAOMs are designed to capture network dynamics representing a variety of influences on network change in a continuous-time Markov chain framework. Network dynamics are characterized through both endogenous (i.e., network related) and exogenous effects, where the latter include mechanisms conjectured in the literature. We outline an application to the resting-state fMRI setting with data from the Alzheimers Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) study. We draw illustrative conclusions at the subject level and make a comparison between elderly controls and individuals with AD.

A procedure to increase the power of Granger-causal analysis through temporal smoothing

BACKGROUND

How the human brain coordinates network activity to support cognition and behavior remains poorly understood. New high-resolution recording modalities facilitate a more detailed understanding of the human brain network. Several approaches have been proposed to infer functional networks, indicating the transient coordination of activity between brain regions, from neural time series. One category of approach is based on statistical modeling of time series recorded from multiple sensors (e.g., multivariate Granger causality). However, fitting such models remains computationally challenging as the history structure may be long in neural activity, requiring many model parameters to fully capture the dynamics.

NEW METHOD

We develop a method based on Granger causality that makes the assumption that the history dependence varies smoothly. We fit multivariate autoregressive models such that the coefficients of the lagged history terms are smooth functions. We do so by modelling the history terms with a lower dimensional spline basis, which requires many fewer parameters than the standard approach and increases the statistical power of the model.

RESULTS

We show that this procedure allows accurate estimation of brain dynamics and functional networks in simulations and examples of brain voltage activity recorded from a patient with pharmacoresistant epilepsy.

COMPARISON WITH EXISTING METHOD

The proposed method has more statistical power than the Granger method for networks of signals that exhibit extended and smooth history dependencies.

CONCLUSIONS

The proposed tool permits conditional inference of functional networks from many brain regions with extended history dependence, furthering the applicability of Granger causality to brain network science.

Initial evaluation of the effects of an environmental-focused problem-solving intervention for transition-age young people with developmental disabilities: Project TEAM

AIM

Project TEAM (Teens making Environment and Activity Modifications) teaches transition-age young people with developmental disabilities, including those with co-occurring intellectual or cognitive disabilities, to identify and resolve environmental barriers to participation. We examined its effects on young people's attainment of participation goals, knowledge, problem-solving, self-determination, and self-efficacy.

METHOD

We used a quasi-experimental, repeated measures design (initial, outcome, 6-week follow-up) with two groups: (1) Project TEAM (28 males, 19 females; mean age 17y 6mo); and (2) goal-setting comparison (21 males, 14 females; mean age 17y 6mo). A matched convenience sample was recruited in two US states. Attainment of participation goals and goal attainment scaling (GAS) T scores were compared at outcome. Differences between groups for all other outcomes were analyzed using linear mixed effects models.

RESULTS

At outcome, Project TEAM participants demonstrated greater knowledge (estimated mean difference: 1.82; confidence interval [CI]: 0.90, 2.74) and ability to apply knowledge during participation (GAS: t[75]=4.21; CI: 5.21, 14.57) compared to goal-setting. While both groups achieved significant improvements in knowledge, problem-solving, and self-determination, increases in parent reported self-determination remained at 6-week follow-up only for Project TEAM (estimated mean difference: 4.65; CI: 1.32, 7.98). Significantly more Project TEAM participants attained their participation goals by follow-up (Project TEAM=97.6%, goal-setting=77.1%, p=0.009).

INTERPRETATION

Both approaches support attainment of participation goals. Although inconclusive, Project TEAM may uniquely support young people with developmental disabilities to act in a self-determined manner and apply an environmental problem-solving approach over time.

WHAT THIS PAPER ADDS

Individualized goal-setting, alone or during Project TEAM (Teens making Environment and Activity Modifications) appears to support attainment of participation goals. Project TEAM appears to support young people with developmental disabilities to apply an environmental problem-solving approach to participation barriers. Parents of young people with developmental disabilities report sustained changes in self-determination 6 weeks after Project TEAM.

Control of Huntington's Disease-Associated Phenotypes by the Striatum-Enriched Transcription Factor Foxp2

Alteration of corticostriatal glutamatergic function is an early pathophysiological change associated with Huntington's disease (HD). The factors that regulate the maintenance of corticostriatal glutamatergic synapses post-developmentally are not well understood. Recently, the striatum-enriched transcription factor Foxp2 was implicated in the development of these synapses. Here, we show that, in mice, overexpression of Foxp2 in the adult striatum of two models of HD leads to rescue of HD-associated behaviors, while knockdown of Foxp2 in wild-type mice leads to development of HD-associated behaviors. We note that Foxp2 encodes the longest polyglutamine repeat protein in the human reference genome, and we show that it can be sequestered into aggregates with polyglutamine-expanded mutant Huntingtin protein (mHTT). Foxp2 overexpression in HD model mice leads to altered expression of several genes associated with synaptic function, genes that present additional targets for normalization of corticostriatal dysfunction in HD.

Detection of multiple perturbations in multi-omics biological networks

Cellular mechanism-of-action is of fundamental concern in many biological studies. It is of particular interest for identifying the cause of disease and learning the way in which treatments act against disease. However, pinpointing such mechanisms is difficult, due to the fact that small perturbations to the cell can have wide-ranging downstream effects. Given a snapshot of cellular activity, it can be challenging to tell where a disturbance originated. The presence of an ever-greater variety of high-throughput biological data offers an opportunity to examine cellular behavior from multiple angles, but also presents the statistical challenge of how to effectively analyze data from multiple sources. In this setting, we propose a method for mechanism-of-action inference by extending network filtering to multi-attribute data. We first estimate a joint Gaussian graphical model across multiple data types using penalized regression and filter for network effects. We then apply a set of likelihood ratio tests to identify the most likely site of the original perturbation. In addition, we propose a conditional testing procedure to allow for detection of multiple perturbations. We demonstrate this methodology on paired gene expression and methylation data from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA).

Meta-Analysis for Penalized Regression Methods with Multi-Cohort Genome-Wide Association Studies

OBJECTIVE

Penalized regression has been successfully applied in genome-wide association studies. While meta-analysis is often conducted to increase power and protect patients' confidentiality, methods for meta-analyzing results of penalized regression in multi-cohort setting are still under development.

METHODS

We propose to use a data-splitting method to obtain valid p values (or equivalently, coefficient estimates and standard errors) for meta-analysis across multiple cohorts. We examine two ways of splitting data in multi-cohort setting and propose three methods to conduct meta-analysis based on p values. We compare the three meta-analysis methods to mega-analysis, which consists of pooling individual level data. We also apply our proposed meta-analysis approaches to the Framingham Heart Study data, where we divide the original dataset into four parts to create a multi-cohort scenario.

RESULTS

The simulations suggest that splitting cohorts has better performance than splitting data within each cohort. The real data application also shows that this method provides results that are similar to the mega-analysis.

CONCLUSION

After comparing the three methods that we proposed to conduct meta-analysis, we recommend splitting cohorts rather than datasets to obtain valid p values for meta-analysis of results from penalized regression in multi-cohort setting.

Peripheral Blood Transcriptomic Signatures of Fasting Glucose and Insulin Concentrations

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have successfully identified genetic loci associated with glycemic traits. However, characterizing the functional significance of these loci has proven challenging. We sought to gain insights into the regulation of fasting insulin and fasting glucose through the use of gene expression microarray data from peripheral blood samples of participants without diabetes in the Framingham Heart Study (FHS) (n = 5,056), the Rotterdam Study (RS) (n = 723), and the InCHIANTI Study (Invecchiare in Chianti) (n = 595). Using a false discovery rate q <0.05, we identified three transcripts associated with fasting glucose and 433 transcripts associated with fasting insulin levels after adjusting for age, sex, technical covariates, and complete blood cell counts. Among the findings, circulating IGF2BP2 transcript levels were positively associated with fasting insulin in both the FHS and RS. Using 1000 Genomes-imputed genotype data, we identified 47,587 cis-expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) and 6,695 trans-eQTL associated with the 433 significant insulin-associated transcripts. Of note, we identified a trans-eQTL (rs592423), where the A allele was associated with higher IGF2BP2 levels and with fasting insulin in an independent genetic meta-analysis comprised of 50,823 individuals. We conclude that integration of genomic and transcriptomic data implicate circulating IGF2BP2 mRNA levels associated with glucose and insulin homeostasis.

Perturbation Detection Through Modeling of Gene Expression on a Latent Biological Pathway Network: A Bayesian hierarchical approach

Cellular response to a perturbation is the result of a dynamic system of biological variables linked in a complex network. A major challenge in drug and disease studies is identifying the key factors of a biological network that are essential in determining the cell's fate. Here our goal is the identification of perturbed pathways from high-throughput gene expression data. We develop a three-level hierarchical model, where (i) the first level captures the relationship between gene expression and biological pathways using confirmatory factor analysis, (ii) the second level models the behavior within an underlying network of pathways induced by an unknown perturbation using a conditional autoregressive model, and (iii) the third level is a spike-and-slab prior on the perturbations. We then identify perturbations through posterior-based variable selection. We illustrate our approach using gene transcription drug perturbation profiles from the DREAM7 drug sensitivity predication challenge data set. Our proposed method identified regulatory pathways that are known to play a causative role and that were not readily resolved using gene set enrichment analysis or exploratory factor models. Simulation results are presented assessing the performance of this model relative to a network-free variant and its robustness to inaccuracies in biological databases.

Percolation under noise: Detecting explosive percolation using the second-largest component

We consider the problem of distinguishing between different rates of percolation under noise. A statistical model of percolation is constructed allowing for the birth and death of edges as well as the presence of noise in the observations. This graph-valued stochastic process is composed of a latent and an observed nonstationary process, where the observed graph process is corrupted by type-I and type-II errors. This produces a hidden Markov graph model. We show that for certain choices of parameters controlling the noise, the classical (Erdős-Rényi) percolation is visually indistinguishable from a more rapid form of percolation. In this setting, we compare two different criteria for discriminating between these two percolation models, based on the interquartile range (IQR) of the first component's size, and on the maximal size of the second-largest component. We show through data simulations that this second criterion outperforms the IQR of the first component's size, in terms of discriminatory power. The maximal size of the second component therefore provides a useful statistic for distinguishing between different rates of percolation, under physically motivated conditions for the birth and death of edges, and under noise. The potential application of the proposed criteria for the detection of clinically relevant percolation in the context of applied neuroscience is also discussed.

MYCN controls an alternative RNA splicing program in high-risk metastatic neuroblastoma

The molecular mechanisms underlying the aggressive behavior of MYCN driven neuroblastoma (NBL) is under intense investigation; however, little is known about the impact of this family of transcription factors on the splicing program. Here we used high-throughput RNA sequencing to systematically study the expression of RNA isoforms in stage 4 MYCN-amplified NBL, an aggressive subtype of metastatic NBL. We show that MYCN-amplified NBL tumors display a distinct gene splicing pattern affecting multiple cancer hallmark functions. Six splicing factors displayed unique differential expression patterns in MYCN-amplified tumors and cell lines, and the binding motifs for some of these splicing factors are significantly enriched in differentially-spliced genes. Direct binding of MYCN to promoter regions of the splicing factors PTBP1 and HNRNPA1 detected by ChIP-seq demonstrates that MYCN controls the splicing pattern by direct regulation of the expression of these key splicing factors. Furthermore, high expression of PTBP1 and HNRNPA1 was significantly associated with poor overall survival of stage4 NBL patients (p ≤ 0.05). Knocking down PTBP1, HNRNPA1 and their downstream target PKM2, an isoform of pro-tumor-growth, result in repressed growth of NBL cells. Therefore, our study reveals a novel role of MYCN in controlling global splicing program through regulation of splicing factors in addition to its well-known role in the transcription program. These findings suggest a therapeutically potential to target the key splicing factors or gene isoforms in high-risk NBL with MYCN-amplification.

On the Question of Effective Sample Size in Network Modeling: An Asymptotic Inquiry

The modeling and analysis of networks and network data has seen an explosion of interest in recent years and represents an exciting direction for potential growth in statistics. Despite the already substantial amount of work done in this area to date by researchers from various disciplines, however, there remain many questions of a decidedly foundational nature - natural analogues of standard questions already posed and addressed in more classical areas of statistics - that have yet to even be posed, much less addressed. Here we raise and consider one such question in connection with network modeling. Specifically, we ask, "Given an observed network, what is the sample size?" Using simple, illustrative examples from the class of exponential random graph models, we show that the answer to this question can very much depend on basic properties of the networks expected under the model, as the number of vertices n_V in the network grows. In particular, adopting the (asymptotic) scaling of the variance of the maximum likelihood parameter estimates as a notion of effective sample size, say n_eff, we show that whether the networks are sparse or not under our model (i.e., having relatively few or many edges between vertices, respectively) is sufficient to yield an order of magnitude difference in n_eff, from O(n_V ) to [Formula: see text]. We then explore some practical implications of this result, using both simulation and data on food-sharing from Lamalera, Indonesia.

Improvement of experimental testing and network training conditions with genome-wide microarrays for more accurate predictions of drug gene targets

Background

Genome-wide microarrays have been useful for predicting chemical-genetic interactions at the gene level. However, interpreting genome-wide microarray results can be overwhelming due to the vast output of gene expression data combined with off-target transcriptional responses many times induced by a drug treatment. This study demonstrates how experimental and computational methods can interact with each other, to arrive at more accurate predictions of drug-induced perturbations. We present a two-stage strategy that links microarray experimental testing and network training conditions to predict gene perturbations for a drug with a known mechanism of action in a well-studied organism.

Results

S. cerevisiae cells were treated with the antifungal, fluconazole, and expression profiling was conducted under different biological conditions using Affymetrix genome-wide microarrays. Transcripts were filtered with a formal network-based method, sparse simultaneous equation models and Lasso regression (SSEM-Lasso), under different network training conditions. Gene expression results were evaluated using both gene set and single gene target analyses, and the drug’s transcriptional effects were narrowed first by pathway and then by individual genes. Variables included: (i) Testing conditions – exposure time and concentration and (ii) Network training conditions – training compendium modifications. Two analyses of SSEM-Lasso output – gene set and single gene – were conducted to gain a better understanding of how SSEM-Lasso predicts perturbation targets.

Conclusions

This study demonstrates that genome-wide microarrays can be optimized using a two-stage strategy for a more in-depth understanding of how a cell manifests biological reactions to a drug treatment at the transcription level. Additionally, a more detailed understanding of how the statistical model, SSEM-Lasso, propagates perturbations through a network of gene regulatory interactions is achieved.

Network-guided sparse regression modeling for detection of gene-by-gene interactions

MOTIVATION

Genetic variants identified by genome-wide association studies to date explain only a small fraction of total heritability. Gene-by-gene interaction is one important potential source of unexplained total heritability. We propose a novel approach to detect such interactions that uses penalized regression and sparse estimation principles, and incorporates outside biological knowledge through a network-based penalty.

RESULTS

We tested our new method on simulated and real data. Simulation showed that with reasonable outside biological knowledge, our method performs noticeably better than stage-wise strategies (i.e. selecting main effects first, and interactions second, from those main effects selected) in finding true interactions, especially when the marginal strength of main effects is weak. We applied our method to Framingham Heart Study data on total plasma immunoglobulin E (IgE) concentrations and found a number of interactions among different classes of human leukocyte antigen genes that may interact to influence the risk of developing IgE dysregulation and allergy.

AVAILABILITY

The proposed method is implemented in R and available at http://math.bu.edu/people/kolaczyk/software.html.

CONTACT

chenlu@bu.edu

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Wolbachia enhance Drosophila stem cell proliferation and target the germline stem cell niche

Wolbachia are widespread maternally transmitted intracellular bacteria that infect most insect species and are able to alter the reproduction of innumerous hosts. The cellular bases of these alterations remain largely unknown. Here, we report that Drosophila mauritiana infected with a native Wolbachia wMau strain produces about four times more eggs than the noninfected counterpart. Wolbachia infection leads to an increase in the mitotic activity of germline stem cells (GSCs), as well as a decrease in programmed cell death in the germarium. Our results suggest that up-regulation of GSC division is mediated by a tropism of Wolbachia for the GSC niche, the cellular microenvironment that supports GSCs.

Network-based auto-probit modeling for protein function prediction

Predicting the functional roles of proteins based on various genome-wide data, such as protein-protein association networks, has become a canonical problem in computational biology. Approaching this task as a binary classification problem, we develop a network-based extension of the spatial auto-probit model. In particular, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian probit-based framework for modeling binary network-indexed processes, with a latent multivariate conditional autoregressive Gaussian process. The latter allows for the easy incorporation of protein-protein association network topologies-either binary or weighted-in modeling protein functional similarity. We use this framework to predict protein functions, for functions defined as terms in the Gene Ontology (GO) database, a popular rigorous vocabulary for biological functionality. Furthermore, we show how a natural extension of this framework can be used to model and correct for the high percentage of false negative labels in training data derived from GO, a serious shortcoming endemic to biological databases of this type. Our method performance is evaluated and compared with standard algorithms on weighted yeast protein-protein association networks, extracted from a recently developed integrative database called Search Tool for the Retrieval of INteracting Genes/proteins (STRING). Results show that our basic method is competitive with these other methods, and that the extended method-incorporating the uncertainty in negative labels among the training data-can yield nontrivial improvements in predictive accuracy.

On the choice and number of microarrays for transcriptional regulatory network inference

BACKGROUND

Transcriptional regulatory network inference (TRNI) from large compendia of DNA microarrays has become a fundamental approach for discovering transcription factor (TF)-gene interactions at the genome-wide level. In correlation-based TRNI, network edges can in principle be evaluated using standard statistical tests. However, while such tests nominally assume independent microarray experiments, we expect dependency between the experiments in microarray compendia, due to both project-specific factors (e.g., microarray preparation, environmental effects) in the multi-project compendium setting and effective dependency induced by gene-gene correlations. Herein, we characterize the nature of dependency in an Escherichia coli microarray compendium and explore its consequences on the problem of determining which and how many arrays to use in correlation-based TRNI.

RESULTS

We present evidence of substantial effective dependency among microarrays in this compendium, and characterize that dependency with respect to experimental condition factors. We then introduce a measure neff of the effective number of experiments in a compendium, and find that corresponding to the dependency observed in this particular compendium there is a huge reduction in effective sample size i.e., neff = 14.7 versus n = 376. Furthermore, we found that the neff of select subsets of experiments actually exceeded neff of the full compendium, suggesting that the adage 'less is more' applies here. Consistent with this latter result, we observed improved performance in TRNI using subsets of the data compared to results using the full compendium. We identified experimental condition factors that trend with changes in TRNI performance and neff , including growth phase and media type. Finally, using the set of known E. coli genetic regulatory interactions from RegulonDB, we demonstrated that false discovery rates (FDR) derived from neff -adjusted p-values were well-matched to FDR based on the RegulonDB truth set.

CONCLUSIONS

These results support utilization of neff as a potent descriptor of microarray compendia. In addition, they highlight a straightforward correlation-based method for TRNI with demonstrated meaningful statistical testing for significant edges, readily applicable to compendia from any species, even when a truth set is not available. This work facilitates a more refined approach to construction and utilization of mRNA expression compendia in TRNI.

Target Detection via Network Filtering

A method of 'network filtering' has been proposed recently to detect the effects of certain external perturbations on the interacting members in a network. However, with large networks, the goal of detection seems a priori difficult to achieve, especially since the number of observations available often is much smaller than the number of variables describing the effects of the underlying network. Under the assumption that the network possesses a certain sparsity property, we provide a formal characterization of the accuracy with which the external effects can be detected, using a network filtering system that combines Lasso regression in a sparse simultaneous equation model with simple residual analysis. We explore the implications of the technical conditions underlying our characterization, in the context of various network topologies, and we illustrate our method using simulated data.

Network inference with confidence from multivariate time series

Networks--collections of interacting elements or nodes--abound in the natural and manmade worlds. For many networks, complex spatiotemporal dynamics stem from patterns of physical interactions unknown to us. To infer these interactions, it is common to include edges between those nodes whose time series exhibit sufficient functional connectivity, typically defined as a measure of coupling exceeding a predetermined threshold. However, when uncertainty exists in the original network measurements, uncertainty in the inferred network is likely, and hence a statistical propagation of error is needed. In this manuscript, we describe a principled and systematic procedure for the inference of functional connectivity networks from multivariate time series data. Our procedure yields as output both the inferred network and a quantification of uncertainty of the most fundamental interest: uncertainty in the number of edges. To illustrate this approach, we apply a measure of linear coupling to simulated data and electrocorticogram data recorded from a human subject during an epileptic seizure. We demonstrate that the procedure is accurate and robust in both the determination of edges and the reporting of uncertainty associated with that determination.

Predicting gene targets of perturbations via network-based filtering of mRNA expression compendia

MOTIVATION

DNA microarrays are routinely applied to study diseased or drug-treated cell populations. A critical challenge is distinguishing the genes directly affected by these perturbations from the hundreds of genes that are indirectly affected. Here, we developed a sparse simultaneous equation model (SSEM) of mRNA expression data and applied Lasso regression to estimate the model parameters, thus constructing a network model of gene interaction effects. This inferred network model was then used to filter data from a given experimental condition of interest and predict the genes directly targeted by that perturbation.

RESULTS

Our proposed SSEM-Lasso method demonstrated substantial improvement in sensitivity compared with other tested methods for predicting the targets of perturbations in both simulated datasets and microarray compendia. In simulated data, for two different network types, and over a wide range of signal-to-noise ratios, our algorithm demonstrated a 167% increase in sensitivity on average for the top 100 ranked genes, compared with the next best method. Our method also performed well in identifying targets of genetic perturbations in microarray compendia, with up to a 24% improvement in sensitivity on average for the top 100 ranked genes. The overall performance of our network-filtering method shows promise for identifying the direct targets of genetic dysregulation in cancer and disease from expression profiles.

AVAILABILITY

Microarray data are available at the Many Microbe Microarrays Database (M3D, http://m3d.bu.edu). Algorithm scripts are available at the Gardner Lab website (http://gardnerlab.bu.edu/SSEMLasso).

Integration of relational and hierarchical network information for protein function prediction

Background

In the current climate of high-throughput computational biology, the inference of a protein's function from related measurements, such as protein-protein interaction relations, has become a canonical task. Most existing technologies pursue this task as a classification problem, on a term-by-term basis, for each term in a database, such as the Gene Ontology (GO) database, a popular rigorous vocabulary for biological functions. However, ontology structures are essentially hierarchies, with certain top to bottom annotation rules which protein function predictions should in principle follow. Currently, the most common approach to imposing these hierarchical constraints on network-based classifiers is through the use of transitive closure to predictions.

Results

We propose a probabilistic framework to integrate information in relational data, in the form of a protein-protein interaction network, and a hierarchically structured database of terms, in the form of the GO database, for the purpose of protein function prediction. At the heart of our framework is a factorization of local neighborhood information in the protein-protein interaction network across successive ancestral terms in the GO hierarchy. We introduce a classifier within this framework, with computationally efficient implementation, that produces GO-term predictions that naturally obey a hierarchical 'true-path' consistency from root to leaves, without the need for further post-processing.

Conclusion

A cross-validation study, using data from the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae, shows our method offers substantial improvements over both standard 'guilt-by-association' (i.e., Nearest-Neighbor) and more refined Markov random field methods, whether in their original form or when post-processed to artificially impose 'true-path' consistency. Further analysis of the results indicates that these improvements are associated with increased predictive capabilities (i.e., increased positive predictive value), and that this increase is consistent uniformly with GO-term depth. Additional in silico validation on a collection of new annotations recently added to GO confirms the advantages suggested by the cross-validation study. Taken as a whole, our results show that a hierarchical approach to network-based protein function prediction, that exploits the ontological structure of protein annotation databases in a principled manner, can offer substantial advantages over the successive application of 'flat' network-based methods.

What is the real size of a sampled network? The case of the Internet

Most data concerning the topology of complex networks are the result of mapping projects which bear intrinsic limitations and cannot give access to complete, unbiased datasets. A particularly interesting case is represented by the physical Internet. Router-level Internet mapping projects generally consist of sampling the network from a limited set of sources by using traceroute probes. This methodology, akin to the merging of spanning trees from the different sources to a set of destinations, leads necessarily to a partial, incomplete map of the Internet. The determination of the real Internet topology characteristics from such sampled maps is therefore, in part, a problem of statistical inference. In this paper we present a twofold contribution in order to address this problem. First, we argue that inference of some of the standard topological quantities is, in fact, a version of the so-called "species" problem in statistics, which is important in categorizing the problem and providing some indication of its inherent difficulties. Second, we tackle the issue of estimating arguably the most basic of network characteristics-its number of nodes-and propose two estimators for this quantity, based on subsampling principles. Numerical simulations, as well as an experiment based on probing the Internet, suggest the feasibility of accounting for measurement bias in reporting Internet topology characteristics.

Probabilistic protein function prediction from heterogeneous genome-wide data

Dramatic improvements in high throughput sequencing technologies have led to a staggering growth in the number of predicted genes. However, a large fraction of these newly discovered genes do not have a functional assignment. Fortunately, a variety of novel high-throughput genome-wide functional screening technologies provide important clues that shed light on gene function. The integration of heterogeneous data to predict protein function has been shown to improve the accuracy of automated gene annotation systems. In this paper, we propose and evaluate a probabilistic approach for protein function prediction that integrates protein-protein interaction (PPI) data, gene expression data, protein motif information, mutant phenotype data, and protein localization data. First, functional linkage graphs are constructed from PPI data and gene expression data, in which an edge between nodes (proteins) represents evidence for functional similarity. The assumption here is that graph neighbors are more likely to share protein function, compared to proteins that are not neighbors. The functional linkage graph model is then used in concert with protein domain, mutant phenotype and protein localization data to produce a functional prediction. Our method is applied to the functional prediction of Saccharomyces cerevisiae genes, using Gene Ontology (GO) terms as the basis of our annotation. In a cross validation study we show that the integrated model increases recall by 18%, compared to using PPI data alone at the 50% precision. We also show that the integrated predictor is significantly better than each individual predictor. However, the observed improvement vs. PPI depends on both the new source of data and the functional category to be predicted. Surprisingly, in some contexts integration hurts overall prediction accuracy. Lastly, we provide a comprehensive assignment of putative GO terms to 463 proteins that currently have no assigned function.

Multiscale detection of localized anomalous structure in aggregate disease incidence data

We present a modelling framework for detection of potentially anomalous structure in aggregate spatial disease incidence data in a manner sensitive to localization at multiple scales and/or positions. The key technical contribution is the re-casting of the components of a multiscale disease mapping methodology, recently introduced by the authors in an earlier paper, into a form appropriate for hypothesis testing. In particular, we describe how hypotheses of spatially clustered variations in disease incidence may be linked in one-to-one correspondence with collections of hypotheses on the values of certain multiscale parameters associated with a user-defined hierarchy of nested partitions of an overall spatial region. A Bayesian hypothesis testing methodology is developed in the context of a standard Poisson measurement model, over the collection of possible multiscale hypotheses. We discuss the specification of hyper parameters and prior distributions on the space of models. The methodology is illustrated on both simulated and real data.

A multiscale method for disease mapping in spatial epidemiology

The effects of spatial scale in disease mapping are well-recognized, in that the information conveyed by such maps varies with scale. Here we provide an inferential framework, in the context of tract count data, for describing the distribution of relative risk simultaneously across a hierarchy of multiple scales. In particular, we offer a multiscale extension of the canonical standardized mortality ratio (SMR), consisting of Bayesian posterior-based strategies for both estimation and characterization of uncertainty. As a result, a hierarchy of informative disease and confidence maps can be produced, without the need to first try to identify a single appropriate scale of analysis. We explore the behaviour of the proposed methodology in a small simulation study, and we illustrate its usage through an application to data on gastric cancer in Tuscany.

Structural analysis of network traffic flows

Network traffic arises from the superposition of Origin-Destination (OD) flows. Hence, a thorough understanding of OD flows is essential for modeling network traffic, and for addressing a wide variety of problems including traffic engineering, traffic matrix estimation, capacity planning, forecasting and anomaly detection. However, to date, OD flows have not been closely studied, and there is very little known about their properties.We present the first analysis of complete sets of OD flow time-series, taken from two different backbone networks (Abilene and Sprint-Europe). Using Principal Component Analysis (PCA), we find that the set of OD flows has small intrinsic dimension. In fact, even in a network with over a hundred OD flows, these flows can be accurately modeled in time using a small number (10 or less) of independent components or dimensions.We also show how to use PCA to systematically decompose the structure of OD flow timeseries into three main constituents: common periodic trends, short-lived bursts, and noise. We provide insight into how the various constitutents contribute to the overall structure of OD flows and explore the extent to which this decomposition varies over time.