Ensemble learning and ground-truth validation of synaptic connectivity inferred from spike trains

Probing the architecture of neuronal circuits and the principles that underlie their functional organization remains an important challenge of modern neurosciences. This holds true, in particular, for the inference of neuronal connectivity from large-scale extracellular recordings. Despite the popularity of this approach and a number of elaborate methods to reconstruct networks, the degree to which synaptic connections can be reconstructed from spike-train recordings alone remains controversial. Here, we provide a framework to probe and compare connectivity inference algorithms, using a combination of synthetic ground-truth and in vitro data sets, where the connectivity labels were obtained from simultaneous high-density microelectrode array (HD-MEA) and patch-clamp recordings. We find that reconstruction performance critically depends on the regularity of the recorded spontaneous activity, i.e., their dynamical regime, the type of connectivity, and the amount of available spike-train data. We therefore introduce an ensemble artificial neural network (eANN) to improve connectivity inference. We train the eANN on the validated outputs of six established inference algorithms and show how it improves network reconstruction accuracy and robustness. Overall, the eANN demonstrated strong performance across different dynamical regimes, worked well on smaller datasets, and improved the detection of synaptic connectivity, especially inhibitory connections. Results indicated that the eANN also improved the topological characterization of neuronal networks. The presented methodology contributes to advancing the performance of inference algorithms and facilitates our understanding of how neuronal activity relates to synaptic connectivity.

espm: A Python library for the simulation of STEM-EDXS datasets

We present two open-source Python packages: "electron spectro-microscopy" (espm) and "electron microscopy tables" (emtables). The espm software enables the simulation of scanning transmission electron microscopy energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy datacubes, based on user-defined chemical compositions and spatial abundance maps of constituent phases. The simulation process uses X-ray emission cross-sections generated via state-of-the-art calculations made with emtables. These tables are designed to be easily modifiable, either manually or using espm. The simulation framework is designed to test the application of decomposition algorithms for the analysis of STEM-EDX spectrum images with access to a known ground truth. We validate our approach using the case of a complex geology-related sample, comparing raw simulated and experimental datasets and the outputs of their non-negative matrix factorization. In addition to testing machine learning algorithms, our packages will also help experimental design, for instance, predicting dataset characteristics or establishing minimum counts needed to measure nanoscale features.

Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations

Background: Short-term forecasts of infectious disease contribute to situational awareness and capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent insights in infectious disease epidemiology, one can maximise forecasts' predictive performance by combining independent models into an ensemble. Here we report the performance of ensemble predictions of COVID-19 cases and deaths across Europe from March 2021 to March 2022.

Methods: We created the European COVID-19 Forecast Hub, an online open-access platform where modellers upload weekly forecasts for 32 countries with results publicly visualised and evaluated. We created a weekly ensemble forecast from the equally-weighted average across individual models' predictive quantiles. We measured forecast accuracy using a baseline and relative Weighted Interval Score (rWIS). We retrospectively explored ensemble methods, including weighting by past performance.

Results: We collected weekly forecasts from 48 models, of which we evaluated 29 models alongside the ensemble model. The ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time, performing better on rWIS than 91% of forecasts for deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models), and 83% forecasts for cases (N=886 predictions from 23 models). Performance remained stable over a 4-week horizon for death forecasts but declined with longer horizons for cases. Among ensemble methods, the most influential choice came from using a median average instead of the mean, regardless of weighting component models.

Conclusions: Our results support combining independent models into an ensemble forecast to improve epidemiological predictions, and suggest that median averages yield better performance than methods based on means. We highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than case forecasts at horizons greater than two weeks.

Funding: European Commission, Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades, FEDER; Agència de Qualitat i Avaluació Sanitàries de Catalunya; Netzwerk Universitätsmedizin; Health Protection Research Unit; Wellcome Trust; European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control; Ministry of Science and Higher Education of Poland; Federal Ministry of Education and Research; Los Alamos National Laboratory; German Free State of Saxony; NCBiR; FISR 2020 Covid-19 I Fase; Spanish Ministry of Health / REACT-UE (FEDER); National Institutes of General Medical Sciences; Ministerio de Sanidad/ISCIII; PERISCOPE European H2020; PERISCOPE European H2021; InPresa; National Institutes of Health, NSF, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Google, University of Virginia, Defense Threat Reduction Agency.

Identification of polypharmacy patterns in new-users of metformin using the Apriori algorithm: A novel framework for investigating concomitant drug utilization through association rule mining

PURPOSE

With increased concomitant chronic diseases in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), the use of multiple drugs increases as well as the risk of drug-drug interactions (DDI) and adverse drug reactions (ADR). Nevertheless, how medication patterns vary in T2DM patients across different sex and age groups is unclear. This study aims to identify and quantify common drug combinations in first-time metformin users with polypharmacy (≥5 co-medications).

METHODS

New users of metformin were identified from the IQVIA Medical Research Data incorporating data from THIN, A Cegedim Database (2016-2019). A descriptive cohort study explored prescription patterns in patients with polypharmacy. The Apriori algorithm, used to find frequent item-sets in databases, was first-time applied to identify and quantify drug combinations of up to seven drugs to investigate potential harmful polypharmacy patterns.

RESULTS

The cohort included 34 169 new-users of metformin, of which 20 854 (61.0%) received polypharmacy. Atorvastatin was the most frequently co-prescribed drug with metformin overall (38.7%), in women (34.3%) and men (42.6%). In the stratified analysis, a higher proportion of women received polypharmacy (65.6%) compared to men (57.4%). Moreover, the proportion of patients receiving polypharmacy increased with age (18-39 years = 30.4%, 40-59 years = 50.5%, 60-74 years = 70.9%, and ≥75 years = 84.3%).

CONCLUSION

This study is the first to identify and quantify commonly prescribed combinations of drugs compounds in patients with polypharmacy using the Apriori algorithm. The high polypharmacy prevalence at all strata indicates the need to optimize polypharmacy to minimize DDI and ADR.

Trend estimation and short-term forecasting of COVID-19 cases and deaths worldwide

Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, many dashboards have emerged as useful tools to monitor its evolution, inform the public, and assist governments in decision-making. Here, we present a globally applicable method, integrated in a daily updated dashboard that provides an estimate of the trend in the evolution of the number of cases and deaths from reported data of more than 200 countries and territories, as well as 7-d forecasts. One of the significant difficulties in managing a quickly propagating epidemic is that the details of the dynamic needed to forecast its evolution are obscured by the delays in the identification of cases and deaths and by irregular reporting. Our forecasting methodology substantially relies on estimating the underlying trend in the observed time series using robust seasonal trend decomposition techniques. This allows us to obtain forecasts with simple yet effective extrapolation methods in linear or log scale. We present the results of an assessment of our forecasting methodology and discuss its application to the production of global and regional risk maps.

[Swiss Precision and Global Predictions]

A consortium of Swiss universities has set up a dashboard providing daily 7-day epidemic forecasting for 209 countries and territories around the world. Relayed on social networks, international media, and the sites of major public health agencies, these forecasts can help guiding public policy. However, the time horizon of these forecasts is limited and their accuracy is sometimes questionable, even at 7 days. Interdisciplinary research aimed at increasing the complexity of mathematical models can improve the accuracy of the forecasts provided.

A critical assessment of Mus musculus gene function prediction using integrated genomic evidence

BACKGROUND

Several years after sequencing the human genome and the mouse genome, much remains to be discovered about the functions of most human and mouse genes. Computational prediction of gene function promises to help focus limited experimental resources on the most likely hypotheses. Several algorithms using diverse genomic data have been applied to this task in model organisms; however, the performance of such approaches in mammals has not yet been evaluated.

RESULTS

In this study, a standardized collection of mouse functional genomic data was assembled; nine bioinformatics teams used this data set to independently train classifiers and generate predictions of function, as defined by Gene Ontology (GO) terms, for 21,603 mouse genes; and the best performing submissions were combined in a single set of predictions. We identified strengths and weaknesses of current functional genomic data sets and compared the performance of function prediction algorithms. This analysis inferred functions for 76% of mouse genes, including 5,000 currently uncharacterized genes. At a recall rate of 20%, a unified set of predictions averaged 41% precision, with 26% of GO terms achieving a precision better than 90%.

CONCLUSION

We performed a systematic evaluation of diverse, independently developed computational approaches for predicting gene function from heterogeneous data sources in mammals. The results show that currently available data for mammals allows predictions with both breadth and accuracy. Importantly, many highly novel predictions emerge for the 38% of mouse genes that remain uncharacterized.

Consistent probabilistic outputs for protein function prediction

In predicting hierarchical protein function annotations, such as terms in the Gene Ontology (GO), the simplest approach makes predictions for each term independently. However, this approach has the unfortunate consequence that the predictor may assign to a single protein a set of terms that are inconsistent with one another; for example, the predictor may assign a specific GO term to a given protein ('purine nucleotide binding') but not assign the parent term ('nucleotide binding'). Such predictions are difficult to interpret. In this work, we focus on methods for calibrating and combining independent predictions to obtain a set of probabilistic predictions that are consistent with the topology of the ontology. We call this procedure 'reconciliation'. We begin with a baseline method for predicting GO terms from a collection of data types using an ensemble of discriminative classifiers. We apply the method to a previously described benchmark data set, and we demonstrate that the resulting predictions are frequently inconsistent with the topology of the GO. We then consider 11 distinct reconciliation methods: three heuristic methods; four variants of a Bayesian network; an extension of logistic regression to the structured case; and three novel projection methods - isotonic regression and two variants of a Kullback-Leibler projection method. We evaluate each method in three different modes - per term, per protein and joint - corresponding to three types of prediction tasks. Although the principal goal of reconciliation is interpretability, it is important to assess whether interpretability comes at a cost in terms of precision and recall. Indeed, we find that many apparently reasonable reconciliation methods yield reconciled probabilities with significantly lower precision than the original, unreconciled estimates. On the other hand, we find that isotonic regression usually performs better than the underlying, unreconciled method, and almost never performs worse; isotonic regression appears to be able to use the constraints from the GO network to its advantage. An exception to this rule is the high precision regime for joint evaluation, where Kullback-Leibler projection yields the best performance.

Imaging Brain Activation Streams from Optical Flow Computation on 2-Riemannian Manifolds

We report on mathematical methods for the exploration of spatiotemporal dynamics of Magneto- and Electro-Encephalography (MEG / EEG) surface data and/or of the corresponding brain activity at the cortical level, with high temporal resolution. In this regard, we describe how the framework and numerical computation of the optical flow--a classical tool for motion analysis in computer vision--can be extended to non-flat 2-dimensional surfaces such as the scalp and the cortical mantle. We prove the concept and mathematical well-posedness of such an extension through regularizing constraints on the estimated velocity field, and discuss the quantitative evaluation of the optical flow. The method is illustrated by simulations and analysis of brain image sequences from a ball-catching paradigm.