Incidence and outcome of COVID-19 following vaccine and hybrid immunity in patients on immunosuppressive therapy: identification of protective post-immunisation anti-RBD antibody levels in a prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To assess incidence, severity and predictors of COVID-19, including protective post-vaccination levels of antibodies to the receptor-binding domain of SARS-CoV-2 spike protein (anti-RBD), informing further vaccine strategies for patients with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs) on immunosuppressive medication.

METHODS

IMIDs on immunosuppressives and healthy controls (HC) receiving SARS-CoV-2 vaccines were included in this prospective observational study. COVID-19 and outcome were registered and anti-RBD antibodies measured 2-5 weeks post-immunisation.

RESULTS

Between 15 February 2021 and 15 February 2023, 1729 IMIDs and 350 HC provided blood samples and self-reported COVID-19. The incidence of COVID-19 was 66% in patients and 67% in HC, with re-infection occurring in 12% of patients. Severe COVID-19 was recorded in 22 (2%) patients and no HC. No COVID-19-related deaths occurred. Vaccine-induced immunity gave higher risk of COVID-19 (HR 5.89 (95% CI 4.45 to 7.80)) than hybrid immunity. Post-immunisation anti-RBD levels <6000 binding antibody units/mL were associated with an increased risk of COVID-19 following three (HR 1.37 (95% CI 1.08 to 1.74)) and four doses (HR 1.28 (95% CI 1.02 to 1.62)), and of COVID-19 re-infection (HR 4.47 (95% CI 1.87 to 10.67)).

CONCLUSION

Vaccinated patients with IMID have a low risk of severe COVID-19. Hybrid immunity lowers the risk of infection. High post-immunisation anti-RBD levels protect against COVID-19. These results suggest that knowledge on COVID-19 history, and assessment of antibody levels post-immunisation can help individualise vaccination programme series in high-risk individuals.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT04798625.

Clinical consequences of infliximab immunogenicity and the effect of proactive therapeutic drug monitoring: exploratory analyses of the randomised, controlled NOR-DRUM trials

BACKGROUND

Antidrug antibodies to TNF inhibitors might affect clinical outcomes. Proactive therapeutic drug monitoring allows for early detection of antidrug antibodies and might reduce negative clinical consequences. We aimed to explore how antidrug antibodies to the TNF inhibitor infliximab influence treatment outcomes, and to assess the effect of proactive therapeutic drug monitoring.

METHODS

This was a predefined exploratory analysis of data from the randomised, controlled NOR-DRUM trials. The trials were conducted in rheumatology, gastroenterology, and dermatology departments at 21 Norwegian hospitals. Adult patients (aged 18-75 years) with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases were randomly assigned to proactive therapeutic drug monitoring or standard infliximab dosing in the NOR-DRUM A trial (30-week follow-up) and the NOR-DRUM B trial (52-week follow-up). Antidrug antibodies were assessed with a drug-sensitive assay before each infusion. The outcomes of remission (at week 30), disease worsening (during 52 weeks), infusion reactions, and infliximab discontinuation were assessed according to the presence of antidrug antibodies and use of therapeutic drug monitoring.

FINDINGS

Between March 1, 2017, and Dec 12, 2019, 616 patients were included in the NOR-DRUM trials, of whom 615 had at least one serum infliximab and antidrug antibody assessment and were included in the present analyses. Mean age was 45 years (IQR 32-56), 305 (50%) patients were women, and 310 (50%) patients were men. Antidrug antibodies were detected in 147 (24%) patients. Remission at week 30 occurred in 25 (35%) of 72 patients with antidrug antibodies and 180 (54%) of 335 without antidrug antibodies (risk ratio 0·62 [95% CI 0·45-0·86]; p=0·0037). In patients with antidrug antibodies compared with patients without antidrug antibodies, higher rates were found for: disease worsening over 52 weeks (0·76 per person-year vs 0· 35 per person-year, hazard ratio [HR] 2·02 [95% CI 1·33-3·07]; p=0·0009), infusion reactions (0·16 per person-year vs 0·03 per person-year, HR 17·02 [6·98-41·47]; p<0·0001), and infliximab discontinuation (1·00 per person-year vs 0·20 per person-year, HR 6·64 [4·84-9·11]; p<0·0001). These associations were more pronounced in patients with high concentrations of antidrug antibodies than in those with low concentrations of antidrug antibodies. Independent of antibody status, therapeutic drug monitoring was associated with a lower risk of disease worsening (HR 0·41 [0·29-0·59]; p=0·0001) or an infusion reaction (HR 0·30 [0·12-0·73]; p=0·0076), and was associated with an increase in the rate of infliximab discontinuation (HR 1·37 [1·02-1·83]; p=0·037).

INTERPRETATION

In patients where antidrug antibodies were detected, remission was less likely to be reached and sustained, and infusion reaction or discontinuation of infliximab was more likely. Timely detection of antidrug antibodies by proactive therapeutic drug monitoring facilitated treatment decisions that reduced the negative consequences, both regarding infliximab effectiveness and safety. This highlights the role of proactive therapeutic drug monitoring in optimising infliximab therapy.

FUNDING

Inter-regional KLINBEFORSK grants and South-Eastern Norway Regional Health Authority grants.

Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 immunity after vaccination and breakthrough infection in rituximab-treated rheumatoid arthritis patients: a prospective cohort study

Background

SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients treated with B cell-depleting drugs induced limited seroconversion but robust cellular response. We aimed to document specific T and B cell immunity in response to vaccine booster doses and breakthrough infection (BTI).

Methods

We included 76 RA patients treated with rituximab who received up to four SARS-CoV-2 vaccine doses or three doses plus BTI, in addition to vaccinated healthy donors (HD) and control patients treated with tumor necrosis factor inhibitor (TNFi). We quantified anti-SARS-CoV-2 receptor-binding domain (RBD) Spike IgG, anti-nucleocapsid (NC) IgG, 92 circulating inflammatory proteins, Spike-binding B cells, and Spike-specific T cells along with comprehensive high-dimensional phenotyping and functional assays.

Findings

The time since the last rituximab infusion, persistent inflammation, and age were associated with the anti-SARS-CoV-2 RBD IgG seroconversion. The vaccine-elicited serological response was accompanied by an incomplete induction of peripheral Spike-specific memory B cells but occurred independently of T cell responses. Vaccine- and BTI-elicited cellular immunity was similar between RA and HD ex vivo in terms of frequency or phenotype of Spike-specific cytotoxic T cells and in vitro in terms of the functionality and differentiation profile of Spike-specific T cells.

Interpretation

SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in RA can induce persistent effector T-cell responses that are reactivated by BTI. Paused rituximab medication allowed serological responses after a booster dose (D4), especially in RA with lower inflammation, enabling efficient humoral and cellular immunity after BTI, and contributed overall to the development of potential durable immunity.

Hybrid and SARS-CoV-2-vaccine immunity in kidney transplant recipients

BACKGROUND

Kidney transplant recipients (KTR) are at high risk for severe COVID-19 and have demonstrated poor response to vaccination, making it unclear whether successive vaccinations offer immunity and protection.

METHODS

We conducted a serologically guided interventional study where KTR patients that failed to seroconvert were revaccinated and also monitored seroconversion of KTR following the Norwegian vaccination program. We analysed IgG anti-RBD Spike responses from dose 2 (n = 432) up to after the 6th (n = 37) mRNA vaccine dose. The frequency and phenotype of Spike-specific T and B cell responses were assessed in the interventional cohort after 3-4 vaccine doses (n = 30). Additionally, we evaluated the Specific T and B cell response to breakthrough infection (n = 32), measured inflammatory cytokines and broadly cross-neutralizing antibodies, and defined the incidence of COVID-19-related hospitalizations and deaths. The Norwegian KTR cohort has a male dominance (2323 males, 1297 females), PBMC were collected from 114 male and 78 female donors.

FINDINGS

After vaccine dose 3, most KTR developed Spike-specific T cell responses but had significantly reduced Spike-binding B cells and few memory cells. The B cell response included a cross-reactive subset that could bind Omicron VOC, which expanded after breakthrough infection (BTI) and gave rise to a memory IgG+ B cell response. After BTI, KTR had increased Spike-specific T cells, emergent non-Spike T and B cell responses, and a systemic inflammatory signature. Late seroconversion occurred after doses 5-6, but 38% (14/37) of KTR had no detectable immunity even after multiple vaccine doses.

INTERPRETATION

Boosting vaccination can induce Spike-specific immunity that may expand in breakthrough infections highlighting the benefit of vaccination to protect this vulnerable population.

FUNDING

CEPI and internal funds.

Adalimumab serum levels and anti-drug antibodies: associations to treatment response and drug survival in inflammatory joint diseases

OBJECTIVES

To explore associations between serum adalimumab level, treatment response and drug survival in order to identify therapeutic drug levels for therapeutic drug monitoring of adalimumab. Also, to assess occurrence and risk factors of anti-drug antibody (ADAb) formation.

METHODS

Non-trough adalimumab and ADAb levels were measured by automated fluorescence assays in serum collected after 3 months of adalimumab treatment in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA), psoriatic arthritis (PsA) or axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA) included in the observational NOR-DMARD study. Treatment response was evaluated after 3 months, and drug survival during long-term follow-up.

RESULTS

In 340 patients (97 RA, 69 PsA, 174 axSpA), median adalimumab level was 7.3 mg/l (IQR 4.0-10.3). 33 (10%) patients developed ADAb. Findings were comparable across diagnoses. In RA and PsA, adalimumab levels ≥6.0 mg/l were associated with treatment response (Odds Ratio [OR] 2.2 [95% CI 1.0, 4.4]) and improved drug survival (Hazard Ratio [HR] 0.49 [0.27, 0.80]). In axSpA, a therapeutic level could not be identified, but higher adalimumab levels were associated with response. Factors associated with ADAb formation were previous bDMARD use, no methotrexate comedication and use of adalimumab originator compared with GP2017.

CONCLUSION

Higher adalimumab levels were associated with better response and improved drug survival for all diagnoses, with a suggested lower threshold of 6.0 mg/l for RA/PsA. This finding, the large variability in drug levels among patients receiving standard adalimumab dose, and the high proportion of patients developing ADAb, encourages further investigations into the potential role of therapeutic drug monitoring of adalimumab.

Humoral immune response to SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in patients with inflammatory bowel disease on immunosuppressive medication: association to serum drug levels and disease type

OBJECTIVES

Immune responses following SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) are not well characterized. The aims of this study were to explore the serological response associated with IBD, and immunosuppressive medications including serum concentrations of biologics and thiopurine metabolites.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This prospective, observational study included adult patients with ulcerative colitis (UC) and Crohn's disease (CD), and healthy controls. Antibodies to the receptor-binding domain of SARS-CoV-2 spike proteins, and serum concentrations of ongoing biologic and immunomodulatory medications were assessed prior to, and 2-5 weeks after the second vaccine dose. Serologic response was defined as anti-Spike antibodies ≥70 AU/ml.

RESULTS

In 958 IBD patients (380 UC, 578 CD) and 323 healthy controls, the median (Q1; Q3) anti-Spike antibody level (AU/ml) was lower in patients (618 (192; 4370)) compared to controls (3355 (896; 7849)) (p < 0.001). The antibody levels were lower in CD (439 (174; 3304)) compared to UC (1088 (251; 5975)) (p < 0.001). No associations were demonstrated between antibody levels and serum drug concentrations for TNF inhibitor (TNFi), vedolizumab and ustekinumab. Patients receiving TNFi + thiopurines with a subtherapeutic 6-thioguanine nucleotide (6-TGN) level had higher response rate (93%) compared to patients with 6-TGN within the therapeutic range (53%) (p = 0.003). A diagnosis of UC, mRNA-1273 vaccine, and other treatments than TNFi + thiopurines were associated with humoral response.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with CD had an attenuated humoral response to SARS-COV-2 vaccination as compared to patients with UC. The lack of association between serum levels of biologics and serologic response indicates vaccination regardless of proximity to drug administration.

Longitudinal changes of serum cytokines in patients with chronic low back pain and Modic changes

OBJECTIVES

To explore serum cytokine levels over time in patients with chronic low back pain (cLBP) and Modic changes (MCs), difference in change between treatment groups in the Antibiotics in Modic Changes (AIM) study and associations between change in cytokines and low back pain.

METHODS

Serum concentrations of 39 cytokines were measured at baseline and 1 year from 73 participants in the AIM study; 30 randomized to placebo, 43 to Amoxicillin. Low back pain intensity was measured by numeric rating scale. Change in cytokine levels over time were assessed by paired t-tests. Difference in change in cytokine levels between treatment groups and associations between changes in LBP and cytokine levels were assessed by linear regression models. Networks of cytokine changes in each treatment groups were explored by Pearson's correlations.

RESULTS

Five cytokines changed from baseline to 1 year, (mean change, log transformed values with CI) C-X-C motif chemokine ligand (CXCL) 10 (IP-10) (0.11 (0.01-0.20)), CXCL13 (0.61 (0.00-0.12)), C-C motif chemokine ligand (CCL)26 (0.05 (0.01-0.1)), granulocyte macrophage-colony stimulating factor (GM-CSF) (-0.12 (-0.23 to 0.00)) and CXCL11 (0.12 (0.03-0.22)). Treatment group only influenced change in CCL21 (β 0.07 (0.01-0.12)), and IL-6 (β -0.17 (-0.30 to -0.03)). Change in CXCL13 (β 2.43 (0.49-4.38)), CCL27 (β 3.07 (0.46-5.69)), IL-8 (β 1.83 (0.08-3.58)) and CCL19 (β 3.10 (0.86-5.43)) were associated with change in LBP. The correlation networks of cytokine changes demonstrate small differences between treatment groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Cytokine levels are relatively stable over time in our sample, with little difference between treatment groups. Some cytokines may be associated with LBP intensity. The differences between the correlation networks suggest that long-term Amoxicillin-treatment may have longstanding effects to be further explored.

HLA-DQ2 is associated with anti-drug antibody formation to infliximab in patients with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases

BACKGROUND

Immunogenicity to tumour necrosis factor inhibitors is a significant clinical problem leading to treatment failure and adverse events. The study aimed to assess human leukocyte antigen (HLA) associations with anti-drug antibody (ADAb) formation to infliximab.

METHODS

Immune-mediated inflammatory disease patients on infliximab therapy (n = 612) were included. Neutralising ADAb were assessed with a drug-sensitive assay. Next generation sequencing-based HLA typing was performed.

RESULTS

Overall, 147 (24%) patients developed ADAb. Conditional analyses indicated HLA-DQB1 (p = 1.4 × 10^-6 ) as a primary risk locus. Highest risk of ADAb was seen when carrying at least one of the HLA-DQ2 haplotypes; DQB1*02:01-DQA1*05:01 or DQB1*02:02-DQA1*02:01 (OR 3.18, 95% CI 2.15-4.69 and p = 5.9 × 10^-9 ). Results were consistent across diseases and when adjusting for concomitant immunomodulator. Computational predictions indicated that these HLA-DQ2 haplotypes bind to peptide motifs from infliximab light chain.

CONCLUSION

A genome-wide significant association between two HLA-DQ2 haplotypes and the risk of ADAb formation to infliximab was identified, suggesting that HLA-DQ2 testing may facilitate personalised treatment decisions.

Therapeutic drug monitoring in inflammatory bowel disease: implementation, utilization, and barriers in clinical practice in Scandinavia

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) may optimize biologic and thiopurine therapies in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). The study aimed to investigate implementation and utilization of TDM in Scandinavia.

METHODS

A web-based questionnaire on the use of TDM was distributed to Scandinavian gastroenterologists via the national societies.

RESULTS

In total, 297 IBD physicians prescribing biologic therapies, equally distributed between community and university hospitals, were included (response rate 42%) (Norway 118 (40%), Denmark 86 (29%), Sweden 50 (17%), Finland 33 (11%), Iceland 10 (3%)). Overall, TDM was applied during biologic therapies by 87%, and for TNF-inhibitors >90%. Among the users, reactive and proactive TDM were utilized by 90% and 63%, respectively. Danish physicians were significantly less inclined to use TDM compared to other Scandinavian countries; (58% vs 98%); OR 0.03 [0.01-0.09], p < 0.001). Reactive TDM was commonly applied at primary (74%) and secondary (99%) treatment failure. Proactive TDM was used by 80% during maintenance therapy and 56% during induction and more commonly utilized in Norway (p < 0.001), and by physicians managing >10 IBD patients/week (p = 0.005). TDM scenarios were interpreted in accord with available evidence but with discrepancies for proactive TDM. The main barriers to TDM were lack of guidelines (51%) and time lag between sampling and results (49%). TDM of thiopurines was routinely used by 87%.

CONCLUSION

TDM of biologic and thiopurine therapies has been broadly implemented into clinical practice in Scandinavia. However, physicians call for TDM guidelines detailing indications and interpretations of test results along with improved test response times.

Four SARS-CoV-2 vaccine doses or hybrid immunity in patients on immunosuppressive therapies: a Norwegian cohort study

Background

Data on response and safety of repeated vaccinations and hybrid immunity in patients with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases on immunosuppressive therapy is needed to further develop vaccination strategies in this vulnerable population. This study aimed to evaluate hybrid immunity and humoral immune response and safety of four SARS-CoV-2 vaccine doses in patients with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases on immunosuppressive therapy.

Methods

This prospective observational Norwegian study of vaccine response to COVID-19 (Nor-vaC) included adult patients aged 18 years and older with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (rheumatoid arthritis, spondyloarthritis, psoriatic arthritis, Crohn's disease, or ulcerative colitis) on immunosuppressive therapy, who had received four SARS-CoV-2 vaccine doses (vaccine group) or three vaccine doses followed by COVID-19 (hybrid group), and healthy controls receiving three vaccine doses (control group). Patients were recruited from the Division of Rheumatology at Diakonhjemmet Hospital, Oslo, and the Department of Gastroenterology at Akershus University Hospital, Lørenskog. Patients who had COVID-19 before the third vaccine dose, and patients with allergies or intolerances to elements of the vaccine were excluded. Antibodies to the receptor-binding domain of SARS-CoV-2 spike protein (anti-RBD antibodies) were assessed 2-4 weeks following vaccination or COVID-19. This study is registered at Clinialtrials.gov, NCT04798625.

Findings

Between Nov 12, 2021, and April 19, 2022, 1458 participants with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases provided post-vaccination samples at 2-4 weeks following a third vaccine dose. After 544 participants were excluded, 715 (78%) of the remaining 914 participants received the fourth dose of the vaccine, and of these, 536 (75%) provided post-vaccination samples 2-4 weeks after their fourth vaccination (vaccine group). 199 (22%) of the 914 had COVID-19 after their third dose of the vaccine and of these, 167 (84%) provided samples (hybrid group). 256 of the eligible 703 patients had rheumatoid arthritis, 107 had spondyloarthritis, 115 had psoriatic arthritis, 130 had Crohn's disease, and 95 had ulcerative colitis). Median age was 56 years [IQR 45-65], 398 (57%) were women, and 305 (43%) were men. Patients in the vaccine group had higher anti-RBD antibody concentrations following the fourth vaccine dose (median 6192 BAU/ml [IQR 2878-11 243]) than after the third dose (median 5087 BAU/ml [1250-9081]; p< 0·0001), but lower antibody concentrations than the control group following the third dose (median 7595 BAU/ml [5916-12 001]; p< 0·0001). Antibody concentrations were higher in the patients in the hybrid group (23 548 BAU/ml [IQR 11 440-35 935]) than in the vaccine group (p<0·0001). No difference was found in antibody concentrations between the fourth dose of BNT162b2 (full-dose) and mRNA-1273 (half-dose). Patients and controls had a comparable safety profile after both three and four vaccine doses.

Interpretation

Vaccine boosters improve humoral immune responses and are safe in patients with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases on immunosuppressive therapy, and administration should be considered regularly in this patient group. Hybrid immunity with omicron induces a strong humoral response suggesting longer intervals between booster doses in this patient group.

Funding

The South-Eastern Norway Regional Health Authority, The Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, Akershus University Hospital.

Immunogenicity and safety of a three-dose SARS-CoV-2 vaccination strategy in patients with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases on immunosuppressive therapy

Objectives

Humoral vaccine responses to SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are impaired and short lasting in patients with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMID) following two vaccine doses. To protect these vulnerable patients against severe COVID-19 disease, a three-dose primary vaccination strategy has been implemented in many countries. The aim of this study was to evaluate humoral response and safety of primary vaccination with three doses in patients with IMID.

Methods

Patients with IMID on immunosuppressive therapy and healthy controls receiving three-dose and two-dose primary SARS-CoV-2 vaccination, respectively, were included in this prospective observational cohort study. Anti-Spike antibodies were assessed 2–4 weeks, and 12 weeks following each dose. The main outcome was anti-Spike antibody levels 2–4 weeks following three doses in patients with IMID and two doses in controls. Additional outcomes were the antibody decline rate and adverse events.

Results

1100 patients and 303 controls were included. Following three-dose vaccination, patients achieved median (IQR) antibody levels of 5720 BAU/mL (2138–8732) compared with 4495 (1591–6639) in controls receiving two doses, p=0.27. Anti-Spike antibody levels increased with median 1932 BAU/mL (IQR 150–4978) after the third dose. The interval between the vaccine doses and vaccination with mRNA-1273 or a combination of vaccines were associated with antibody levels following the third dose. Antibody levels had a slower decline-rate following the third than the second vaccine dose, p<0.001. Adverse events were reported by 464 (47%) patients and by 196 (78%) controls. Disease flares were reported by 70 (7%) patients.

Conclusions

This study shows that additional vaccine doses to patients with IMID contribute to strong and sustained immune-responses comparable to healthy persons vaccinated twice, and supports repeated vaccination of patients with IMID.

Trial registration number

NCT04798625.

Assessing Immunogenicity of Biologic Drugs in Inflammatory Joint Diseases: Progress Towards Personalized Medicine

Biologic drugs have greatly improved treatment outcomes of inflammatory joint diseases, but a substantial proportion of patients either do not respond to treatment or lose response over time. Drug immunogenicity, manifested as the formation of anti-drug antibodies (ADAb), constitute a significant clinical problem. Anti-drug antibodies influence the pharmacokinetics of the drug, are associated with reduced clinical efficacy, and an increased risk of adverse events such as infusion reactions. The prevalence of ADAb differs among drugs and diseases, and the detection of ADAb also depends on the assay format. Most data exist for the tumor necrosis factor-alpha inhibitors infliximab and adalimumab, with a frequency of ADAb that ranges from 10 to 60% across studies. Measurement of ADAb and serum drug concentrations, therapeutic drug monitoring, has been suggested as a strategy to optimize therapy with biologic drugs. Although the recent randomized clinical Norwegian Drug Monitoring (NOR-DRUM) trials show promise towards a personalized medicine prescribing approach by therapeutic drug monitoring, several challenges remain. A plethora of assay formats, with widely differing properties, is currently used for measuring ADAb. Comparing results between different assays and laboratories is difficult, which complicates the development of cut-offs necessary for guidelines and the implementation of ADAb measurements in clinical practice. With the possible exception of infliximab, limited data on clinical relevance and cost effectiveness exist to support therapeutic drug monitoring as a routine clinical strategy to monitor biologic drugs in inflammatory joint diseases. The aim of this review is to provide an overview of the characteristics and prevalence of ADAb, predisposing factors to ADAb formation, commonly used assessment methods, clinical consequences of ADAb, and the potential implications of ADAb assessments for everyday treatment of inflammatory joint diseases.

Risk factors for anti-drug antibody formation to infliximab: Secondary analyses of a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Anti-drug antibodies (ADAb) frequently form early in the treatment course of infliximab and other tumour necrosis factor (TNF) inhibitors, leading to treatment failure and adverse events.

OBJECTIVE

To identify risk factors for ADAb in the early phase of infliximab treatment.

METHODS

Patients (n = 410) with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases who initiated infliximab treatment were included in the 38-week Norwegian Drug Monitoring Trial (NOR-DRUM) A and randomised 1:1 to therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) or standard therapy. Serum levels of infliximab and ADAb were measured at each infusion. Possible risk factors for ADAb formation were assessed using logistic regression, adjusting for potential confounders.

RESULTS

ADAb were detected in 78 (19%) patients. A diagnosis of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) (odds ratio [OR], 1.9 [95% confidence interval [CI] 1.0-3.6]) and lifetime smoking (OR, 2.0 [CI 1.1-3.6]) were baseline risk factors, while baseline use of concomitant immunosuppressors (OR, 0.4 [CI 0.2-0.8]) and a diagnosis of spondyloarthritis (SpA) (OR, 0.4 [CI 0.2-0.8]) reduced the risk of ADAb. Higher disease activity during follow-up (OR, 1.1 [CI 1.0-1.1]) and "drug holidays" of more than 11 weeks (OR, 4.1 [CI 1.2-13.8]) increased the risk of ADAb, whereas higher infliximab doses (OR, 0.1 [CI 0.0-0.3) and higher serum infliximab concentrations (OR, 0.7 [CI 0.6-0.8]) reduced the risk of immunogenicity.

CONCLUSION

Several risk factors for ADAb formation during early-phase infliximab treatment were identified. This knowledge provides a basis for treatment strategies to mitigate the formation of ADAb and identify patients in whom these measures are of particular importance.

Humoral and cellular immune responses to two and three doses of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines in rituximab-treated patients with rheumatoid arthritis: a prospective, cohort study

BACKGROUND

In rituximab-treated patients with rheumatoid arthritis, humoral and cellular immune responses after two or three doses of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are not well characterised. We aimed to address this knowledge gap.

METHODS

This prospective, cohort study (Nor-vaC) was done at two hospitals in Norway. For this sub-study, we enrolled patients with rheumatoid arthritis on rituximab treatment and healthy controls who received SARS-CoV-2 vaccines according to the Norwegian national vaccination programme. Patients with insufficient serological responses to two doses (antibody to the receptor-binding domain [RBD] of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein concentration <100 arbitrary units [AU]/mL) were allotted a third vaccine dose. Antibodies to the RBD of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein were measured in serum 2-4 weeks after the second and third doses. Vaccine-elicited T-cell responses were assessed in vitro using blood samples taken before and 7-10 days after the second dose and 3 weeks after the third dose from a subset of patients by stimulating cryopreserved peripheral blood mononuclear cells with spike protein peptides. The main outcomes were the proportions of participants with serological responses (anti-RBD antibody concentrations of ≥70 AU/mL) and T-cell responses to spike peptides following two and three doses of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines. The study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04798625, and is ongoing.

FINDINGS

Between Feb 9, 2021, and May 27, 2021, 90 patients were enrolled, 87 of whom donated serum and were included in our analyses (69 [79·3%] women and 18 [20·7%] men). 1114 healthy controls were included (854 [76·7%] women and 260 [23·3%] men). 49 patients were allotted a third vaccine dose. 19 (21·8%) of 87 patients, compared with 1096 (98·4%) of 1114 healthy controls, had a serological response after two doses (p<0·0001). Time since last rituximab infusion (median 267 days [IQR 222-324] in responders vs 107 days [80-152] in non-responders) and vaccine type (mRNA-1273 vs BNT162b2) were significantly associated with serological response (adjusting for age and sex). After two doses, 10 (53%) of 19 patients had CD4+ T-cell responses and 14 (74%) had CD8+ T-cell responses. A third vaccine dose induced serological responses in eight (16·3%) of 49 patients, but induced CD4+ and CD8+ T-cell responses in all patients assessed (n=12), including responses to the SARS-CoV-2 delta variant (B.1.617.2). Adverse events were reported in 32 (48%) of 67 patients and in 191 (78%) of 244 healthy controls after two doses, with the frequency not increasing after the third dose. There were no serious adverse events or deaths.

INTERPRETATION

This study provides important insight into the divergent humoral and cellular responses to two and three doses of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines in rituximab-treated patients with rheumatoid arthritis. A third vaccine dose given 6-9 months after a rituximab infusion might not induce a serological response, but could be considered to boost the cellular immune response.

FUNDING

The Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, Research Council of Norway Covid, the KG Jebsen Foundation, Oslo University Hospital, the University of Oslo, the South-Eastern Norway Regional Health Authority, Dr Trygve Gythfeldt og frues forskningsfond, the Karin Fossum Foundation, and the Research Foundation at Diakonhjemmet Hospital.

Effect of Therapeutic Drug Monitoring vs Standard Therapy During Maintenance Infliximab Therapy on Disease Control in Patients With Immune-Mediated Inflammatory Diseases: A Randomized Clinical Trial

IMPORTANCE

Proactive therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM), consisting of individualized treatment based on scheduled assessments of serum drug levels, has been proposed as an alternative to standard therapy to optimize efficacy and safety of infliximab and other biologic drugs. However, it remains unclear whether proactive TDM improves clinical outcomes during maintenance therapy.

OBJECTIVE

To assess whether proactive TDM during maintenance therapy with infliximab improves treatment efficacy by preventing disease worsening compared with standard infliximab therapy without TDM.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Randomized, parallel-group, open-label clinical trial including 458 adults with rheumatoid arthritis, spondyloarthritis, psoriatic arthritis, ulcerative colitis, Crohn disease, or psoriasis undergoing maintenance therapy with infliximab in 20 Norwegian hospitals. Patients were recruited from June 7, 2017, to December 12, 2019. Final follow-up took place on December 14, 2020.

INTERVENTIONS

Patients were randomized 1:1 to proactive TDM with dose and interval adjustments based on scheduled monitoring of serum drug levels and antidrug antibodies (TDM group; n = 228) or to standard infliximab therapy without drug and antibody level monitoring (standard therapy group; n = 230).

MAIN OUTCOME AND MEASURES

The primary outcome was sustained disease control without disease worsening, defined by disease-specific composite scores or consensus about disease worsening between patient and physician leading to a major change in treatment (switching to another biologic drug, adding an immunosuppressive drug including glucocorticoids, or increasing the infliximab dose), during the 52-week study period.

RESULTS

Among 458 randomized patients (mean age, 44.8 [SD, 14.3] years; 216 women [49.8%]), 454 received their randomly allocated intervention and were included in the full analysis set. The primary outcome of sustained disease control without disease worsening was observed in 167 patients (73.6%) in the TDM group and 127 patients (55.9%) in the standard therapy group. The estimated adjusted difference was 17.6% (95% CI, 9.0%-26.2%; P < .001) favoring TDM. Adverse events were reported in 137 patients (60%) and 142 patients (63%) in the TDM and standard therapy groups, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Among patients with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases undergoing maintenance therapy with infliximab, proactive TDM was more effective than treatment without TDM in sustaining disease control without disease worsening. Further research is needed to compare proactive TDM with reactive TDM, to assess the effects on long-term disease complications, and to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of this approach.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03074656.

Serum etanercept concentrations in relation to disease activity and treatment response assessed by ultrasound, biomarkers and clinical disease activity scores: results from a prospective observational study of patients with rheumatoid arthritis

Objectives

To identify the therapeutic range for etanercept and to assess the incidence of anti-etanercept antibody formation.

Methods

Associations between etanercept serum concentration and disease activity as well as treatment response were examined in a longitudinal observational study of rheumatoid arthritis patients starting etanercept. Disease activity was assessed by ultrasound (grey scale and power Doppler), 28-joint Disease Activity Score (DAS28), Simplified Disease Activity Index, plasma calprotectin and C reactive protein. Etanercept concentration and anti-etanercept antibodies were analysed using automated in-house fluorescence assays.

Results

A total of 89 patients were included, whereof 66% were biological disease-modifying antirheumatic drug (DMARD) naïve and 91% used concomitant synthetic DMARD. At 3 months, the median etanercept concentration was 1.8 (IQR 1.1–2.5) mg/L. Longitudinal associations were found between etanercept concentration and disease activity assessed by plasma calprotectin, C reactive protein and DAS28, but not between etanercept concentration and improvement in disease activity by any of the parameters at 3, 6 or 12 months of treatment. Etanercept concentrations were not significantly different among patients who achieved response or remission, compared with non-response or non-remission. Hence, no therapeutic range could be identified. None of the patients developed anti-etanercept antibodies.

Conclusion

Despite the use of sensitive and objective markers of inflammation, a therapeutic range could not be identified for etanercept. Hence, this study suggests that proactive therapeutic drug monitoring is unlikely to benefit rheumatoid arthritis patients treated with etanercept, but a potential benefit in certain clinical situations cannot be excluded.

Immune complexes, innate immunity, and NETosis in ChAdOx1 vaccine-induced thrombocytopenia

Aims

We recently reported five cases of vaccine-induced immune thrombotic thrombocytopenia (VITT) 7–10 days after receiving the first dose of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 adenoviral vector vaccine against corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We aimed to investigate the pathogenic immunological responses operating in these patients.

Methods and results

We assessed circulating inflammatory markers by immune assays and immune cell phenotyping by flow cytometry analyses and performed immunoprecipitation with anti-platelet factor (PF)4 antibody in plasma samples followed by mass spectrometry from all five patients. A thrombus was retrieved from the sinus sagittal superior of one patient and analysed by immunohistochemistry and flow cytometry. Precipitated immune complexes revealed multiple innate immune pathway triggers for platelet and leucocyte activation. Plasma contained increased levels of innate immune response cytokines and markers of systemic inflammation, extensive degranulation of neutrophils, and tissue and endothelial damage. Blood analyses showed activation of neutrophils and increased levels of circulating H3Cit, dsDNA, and myeloperoxidase–DNA complex. The thrombus had extensive infiltration of neutrophils, formation of neutrophil extracellular traps (NETs), and IgG deposits.

Conclusions

The results show that anti-PF4/polyanion IgG-mediated thrombus formation in VITT patients is accompanied by a massive innate immune activation and particularly the fulminant activation of neutrophils including NETosis. These results provide novel data on the immune response in this rare adenoviral vector-induced VITT.

Effect of Therapeutic Drug Monitoring vs Standard Therapy During Infliximab Induction on Disease Remission in Patients With Chronic Immune-Mediated Inflammatory Diseases: A Randomized Clinical Trial

IMPORTANCE

Proactive therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM), defined as individualized drug dosing based on scheduled monitoring of serum drug levels, has been proposed as an alternative to standard therapy to maximize efficacy and safety of infliximab and other biological drugs. However, whether proactive TDM improves clinical outcomes when implemented at the time of drug initiation, compared with standard therapy, remains unclear.

OBJECTIVE

To assess whether TDM during initiation of infliximab therapy improves treatment efficacy compared with standard infliximab therapy without TDM.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Randomized, parallel-group, open-label clinical trial of 411 adults with rheumatoid arthritis, spondyloarthritis, psoriatic arthritis, ulcerative colitis, Crohn disease, or psoriasis initiating infliximab therapy in 21 hospitals in Norway. Patients were recruited from March 1, 2017, to January 10, 2019. Final follow-up occurred on November 5, 2019.

INTERVENTIONS

Patients were randomized 1:1 to receive proactive TDM with dose and interval adjustments based on scheduled monitoring of serum drug levels and antidrug antibodies (TDM group; n = 207) or standard infliximab therapy without drug and antibody level monitoring (standard therapy group; n = 204).

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The primary end point was clinical remission at week 30.

RESULTS

Among 411 randomized patients (mean age, 44.7 [SD, 14.9] years; 209 women [51%]), 398 (198 in the TDM group and 200 in the standard therapy group) received their randomized intervention and were included in the full analysis set. Clinical remission at week 30 was achieved in 100 (50.5%) of 198 and 106 (53.0%) of 200 patients in the TDM and standard therapy groups, respectively (adjusted difference, 1.5%; 95% CI, -8.2% to 11.1%; P = .78). Adverse events were reported in 135 patients (68%) and 139 patients (70%) in the TDM and standard therapy groups, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Among patients with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases initiating treatment with infliximab, proactive therapeutic drug monitoring, compared with standard therapy, did not significantly improve clinical remission rates over 30 weeks. These findings do not support routine use of therapeutic drug monitoring during infliximab induction for improving disease remission rates.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03074656.

Serum golimumab concentration and anti-drug antibodies are associated with treatment response and drug survival in patients with inflammatory joint diseases: data from the NOR-DMARD study

Objectives: This study aimed to identify the therapeutic target concentration and frequency of anti-drug antibodies (ADAbs) in golimumab-treated patients with inflammatory joint disease (IJD).Method: Associations between golimumab concentration, ADAbs, and treatment response were examined in 91 patients with IJD [41 axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA), 20 rheumatoid arthritis (RA), and 30 psoriatic arthritis (PsA)] included in the NOR-DMARD study. Treatment response was defined by Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Score (ASDAS) clinically important improvement in axSpA, European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) good/moderate response in RA, and improvement of ≥ 50% in modified Disease Activity index for PSoriatic Arthritis (DAPSA) (28 swollen/tender joint counts) in PsA. Serum drug concentrations and ADAbs were analysed using automated in-house assays.Results: At inclusion, 42% were biological disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drug naïve and 42% used concomitant synthetic disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drug. The median golimumab concentration was 2.2 (interquartile range 1.0-3.5) mg/L. The proportions of responders after 3 months among patients with golimumab concentration < 1.0, 1.0-3.9, and ≥ 4.0 mg/L were 19%, 49%, and 74%, respectively. A higher rate of treatment discontinuation was seen in patients with serum golimumab concentration < 1.0 compared to ≥ 1.0 mg/L (hazard ratio 3.3, 95% confidence interval 1.8-6.0, p < 0.05). ADAbs were detected in 6%, and were associated with lower drug concentrations and both reduced treatment response and drug survival.Conclusions: Golimumab concentrations ≥ 1.0 mg/L were associated with improved treatment response and better drug survival, although some patients may benefit from higher concentrations. This study suggests a rationale for dosing guided by therapeutic drug monitoring in golimumab-treated patients with IJD. The results should be confirmed in larger studies including trough samples, and the efficacy of such a strategy must be examined in randomized controlled trials.

The effect of infliximab in patients with chronic low back pain and Modic changes (the BackToBasic study): study protocol of a randomized, double blind, placebo-controlled, multicenter trial

BACKGROUND

Low back pain is common and a significant number of patients experience chronic low back pain. Current treatment options offer small to moderate effects. Patients with vertebral bone marrow lesions visualized as Modic changes on magnetic resonance imaging may represent a subgroup within the low back pain population. There is evidence for inflammatory mediators being involved in development of Modic changes; hence, suppression of inflammation could be a treatment strategy for these patients. This study examines the effect of anti-inflammatory treatment with the TNF-α inhibitor infliximab in patients with chronic low back pain and Modic changes.

METHODS/DESIGN

The BackToBasic trial is a multicenter, double blind, randomized controlled trial conducted at six hospitals in Norway, comparing intravenous infusions with infliximab with placebo. One hundred twenty-six patients aged 18-65 with chronic low back pain and type 1 Modic changes will be recruited from secondary care outpatients' clinics. The primary outcome is back pain-specific disability at day 154 (5 months). The study is designed to detect a difference in change of 10 (SD 18) in the Oswestry Disability Index at day 154/ 5 months. The study also aims to refine MRI-assessment, investigate safety and cost-effectiveness and explore the underlying biological mechanisms of Modic changes.

DISCUSSION

Finding treatments that target underlying mechanisms could pose new treatment options for patients with low back pain. Suppression of inflammation could be a treatment strategy for patients with low back pain and Modic changes. This paper presents the design of the BackToBasic study, where we will assess the effect of an anti-inflammatory treatment versus placebo in patients with chronic low back pain and type 1 Modic changes. The study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov under the identifier NCT03704363 . The EudraCT Number: 2017-004861-29.

Associations between certolizumab pegol serum levels, anti-drug antibodies and treatment response in patients with inflammatory joint diseases: data from the NOR-DMARD study

OBJECTIVES

To identify a therapeutic target interval for certolizumab pegol drug levels and examine the influence of anti-drug antibodies in patients with inflammatory joint diseases.

METHODS

Certolizumab pegol and anti-drug antibody levels were measured in serum samples collected after 3 months of certolizumab pegol treatment in 268 patients with inflammatory joint diseases (116 axial spondyloarthritis, 91 rheumatoid arthritis and 61 psoriatic arthritis) in the NOR-DMARD study. Treatment response was defined by Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Score Clinically important improvement in axial spondyloarthritis, European League Against Rheumatism good/moderate response in rheumatoid arthritis, and improvement in 28-joint Disease Activity Score of ≥ 0.6 in PsA. Serum drug levels and anti-drug antibodies were analysed using automated in-house assays.

RESULTS

Certolizumab pegol serum levels varied considerably between individuals (median (IQR) 32.9 (17.3-43.9) mg/L). Certolizumab pegol level ≥ 20 mg/L was associated with treatment response for the total inflammatory joint disease population, with odds ratio (OR) 2.3 (95% CI 1.2-4.5, P = 0.01) and OR 1.9 (95% CI 1.0-3.5, P = 0.05) after 3 and 6 months of treatment, respectively. For individual diagnoses, this association was most consistent for axial spondyloarthritis, with OR 3.4 (95% CI 1.0-11.1, P < 0.05) and OR 3.3 (95% CI 1.0-10.8, P < 0.05), respectively. Certolizumab pegol level > 40 mg/L was not associated with any additional benefit for any of the diagnoses. Anti-drug antibodies were detected in 6.1% (19/310) of samples and were associated with low certolizumab pegol levels (P < 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Serum certolizumab pegol levels 20-40 mg/L were associated with treatment response in inflammatory joint diseases. Our study is the first to show this association in axial spondyloarthritis and psoriatic arthritis patients. The results suggest a possible benefit of therapeutic drug monitoring in patients with inflammatory joint disease on certolizumab pegol treatment.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

NCT01581294, April 2012.

Long-term efficacy and safety of biosimilar infliximab (CT-P13) after switching from originator infliximab: open-label extension of the NOR-SWITCH trial

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

The 52-week, randomized, double-blind, noninferiority, government-funded NOR-SWITCH trial demonstrated that switching from infliximab originator to less expensive biosimilar CT-P13 was not inferior to continued treatment with infliximab originator. The NOR-SWITCH extension trial aimed to assess efficacy, safety and immunogenicity in patients on CT-P13 throughout the 78-week study period (maintenance group) versus patients switched to CT-P13 at week 52 (switch group). The primary outcome was disease worsening during follow-up based on disease-specific composite measures.

METHODS

Patients were recruited from 24 Norwegian hospitals, 380 of 438 patients who completed the main study: 197 in the maintenance group and 183 in the switch group. In the full analysis set, 127 (33%) had Crohn's disease, 80 (21%) ulcerative colitis, 67 (18%) spondyloarthritis, 55 (15%) rheumatoid arthritis, 20 (5%) psoriatic arthritis and 31 (8%) chronic plaque psoriasis.

RESULTS

Baseline characteristics were similar in the two groups at the time of switching (week 52). Disease worsening occurred in 32 (16.8%) patients in the maintenance group vs. 20 (11.6%) in the switch group (per-protocol set). Adjusted risk difference was 5.9% (95% CI -1.1 to 12.9). Frequency of adverse events, anti-drug antibodies, changes in generic disease variables and disease-specific composite measures were comparable between arms. The study was inadequately powered to detect noninferiority within individual diseases.

CONCLUSION

The NOR-SWITCH extension showed no difference in safety and efficacy between patients who maintained CT-P13 and patients who switched from originator infliximab to CT-P13, supporting that switching from originator infliximab to CT-P13 is safe and efficacious.

Interleukin-15 induces interleukin-17 production by synovial T cell lines from patients with rheumatoid arthritis

IL-17-producing T cells (Th17 cells) are believed to contribute to local inflammation and joint damage in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Limited data exist on Th17 cells located within the inflamed synovial tissue (ST) of patients with RA. Here, we aimed to generate polyclonal T cell lines (TCLs) from the RA ST and assess their cytokine production, including the effects of exogenous IL-15 on IL-17 production in vitro. For five patients with RA, polyclonal TCLs were established from ST obtained by joint surgery. Synovial TCLs were expanded and stimulated by anti-CD3/CD28 microbeads and exogenous cytokines. Cytokine production was assessed by culture supernatant analyses and intracellular flow cytometry, and TCLs were sorted based on their surface expression of CCR6. In addition to IL-17, we detected IL-6, IL-10, IFN-γ and TNF-α in the synovial TCL culture supernatants. Exogenous IL-15 increased the production of IL-17 as well as the other cytokines except IFN-γ. For IL-17, this effect was more pronounced after prolonged culture times. Intracellular flow cytometry confirmed the presence of IL-17+ and IL-17+ IFN-γ+ CD4+ T cells in the TCLs. IL-17+ and IL-17+ IFN-γ+ T cells were enriched in the CD4+ CCR6+ population. In conclusion, Th17 cells can be detected after polyclonal expansion and stimulation of RA synovial TCLs generated by joint surgery. The Th17 cells from the RA ST were enriched in the CD4+ CCR6+ population, and they were sensitive to exogenous IL-15. Th17 cells present within the synovial compartment may contribute to the RA pathogenesis and local joint damage.

Prediction of radiographic progression in rheumatoid arthritis and the role of antibodies against mutated citrullinated vimentin: results from a 10-year prospective study

OBJECTIVES

Anti-citrullinated peptide antibodies (ACPAs) are established as useful predictors of radiographic progression in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). The main objective of this study was to test the prognostic capacity of the recently developed test for anti-mutated citrullinated vimentin (anti-MCV).

METHODS

A cohort of 238 patients with RA was followed longitudinally for 10 years; 125 patients with complete x ray sets were included in the main analyses. Radiographs were scored according to the van der Heijde modified Sharp score (SHS). Patients were analysed for anti-MCV and anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide (CCP), and were genotyped for human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-DRB1 "shared epitope" (SE) and protein tyrosine phosphatase, non-receptor type 22 (PTPN22) 1858T.

RESULTS

Anti-MCV and anti-CCP were strongly associated with regard to status and level. Both antibodies were associated with SE, but only anti-MCV was significantly associated with PTPN22 1858T. A positive anti-MCV test increased the odds of radiographic progression by 7.3 (95% confidence interval (CI) 3.2 to 16.5) compared to 5.7 (95% CI 2.6 to 12.5) for a positive anti-CCP. Presence of MCV antibodies gave an average increase in the total SHS of 30 U compared to an average increase of 25 U for the presence of CCP antibodies. Anti-MCVs were more strongly associated to progression in erosions than joint space narrowing. Associations remained after adjustment for other predictors of radiographic progression. The odds of progression increased with increasing anti-MCV level.

CONCLUSIONS

Presence of anti-MCV predicted joint damage, and the strength of this prediction was at least as strong as for anti-CCP. Antibody status showed a stronger association to bone than to cartilage destruction. This study also indicates that higher anti-MCV levels add prognostic information compared to their mere presence or absence.

High anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide levels and an algorithm of four variables predict radiographic progression in patients with rheumatoid arthritis: results from a 10-year longitudinal study

OBJECTIVES

New effective therapies with particularly good effect on joint destruction have highlighted the need for reliable predictors of radiographic progression in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Our objective was to assess the combined predictive role of a set of laboratory markers with regard to 10-year radiographic progression, and to examine the effect of anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide (anti-CCP) level.

METHODS

A cohort of 238 patients with RA was followed longitudinally for 10 years with the collection of clinical data and serum samples. 125 patients with radiographs of the hands available at both baseline and after 10 years were included in this study. Radiographs were scored according to the van der Heijde modified Sharp score. Baseline sera were analysed for C-reactive protein, erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), anti-CCP, IgA rheumatoid factor (RF) and IgM RF. Logistic regression analyses were used to identify predictors of radiographic progression and to examine the effect of anti-CCP level.

RESULTS

Anti-CCP (OR 4.0; 95% CI 1.6 to 10.0) was the strongest independent predictor of radiographic progression. Female gender (OR 3.3; 95% CI 1.3 to 7.6), high ESR (OR 3.2; 95% CI 1.2 to 7.6) and a positive IgM RF (OR 3.1; 95% CI 1.2 to 7.9) were also independent predictors. Compared with the anti-CCP-negative patients, patients with low to moderate levels of anti-CCP (OR 2.6; 95% CI 0.9 to 7.2) and patients with high levels of anti-CCP (OR 9.9; 95% CI 2.7 to 36.7) were more likely to develop radiographic progression.

CONCLUSIONS

Anti-CCP, IgM RF, ESR and female gender were independent predictors of radiographic progression and could be combined into an algorithm for better prediction. Patients with high levels of anti-CCP were especially prone to radiographic progression, indicating that the anti-CCP level may add prognostic information.