An integrated Bayesian framework for multi-omics prediction and classification

With the growing commonality of multi-omics datasets, there is now increasing evidence that integrated omics profiles lead to more efficient discovery of clinically actionable biomarkers that enable better disease outcome prediction and patient stratification. Several methods exist to perform host phenotype prediction from cross-sectional, single-omics data modalities but decentralized frameworks that jointly analyze multiple time-dependent omics data to highlight the integrative and dynamic impact of repeatedly measured biomarkers are currently limited. In this article, we propose a novel Bayesian ensemble method to consolidate prediction by combining information across several longitudinal and cross-sectional omics data layers. Unlike existing frequentist paradigms, our approach enables uncertainty quantification in prediction as well as interval estimation for a variety of quantities of interest based on posterior summaries. We apply our method to four published multi-omics datasets and demonstrate that it recapitulates known biology in addition to providing novel insights while also outperforming existing methods in estimation, prediction, and uncertainty quantification. Our open-source software is publicly available at https://github.com/himelmallick/IntegratedLearner.

Population structure discovery in meta-analyzed microbial communities and inflammatory bowel disease using MMUPHin

Microbiome studies of inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD) have achieved a scale for meta-analysis of dysbioses among populations. To enable microbial community meta-analyses generally, we develop MMUPHin for normalization, statistical meta-analysis, and population structure discovery using microbial taxonomic and functional profiles. Applying it to ten IBD cohorts, we identify consistent associations, including novel taxa such as Acinetobacter and Turicibacter, and additional exposure and interaction effects. A single gradient of dysbiosis severity is favored over discrete types to summarize IBD microbiome population structure. These results provide a benchmark for characterization of IBD and a framework for meta-analysis of any microbial communities.

Differential expression of single-cell RNA-seq data using Tweedie models

The performance of computational methods and software to identify differentially expressed features in single-cell RNA-sequencing (scRNA-seq) has been shown to be influenced by several factors, including the choice of the normalization method used and the choice of the experimental platform (or library preparation protocol) to profile gene expression in individual cells. Currently, it is up to the practitioner to choose the most appropriate differential expression (DE) method out of over 100 DE tools available to date, each relying on their own assumptions to model scRNA-seq expression features. To model the technological variability in cross-platform scRNA-seq data, here we propose to use Tweedie generalized linear models that can flexibly capture a large dynamic range of observed scRNA-seq expression profiles across experimental platforms induced by platform- and gene-specific statistical properties such as heavy tails, sparsity, and gene expression distributions. We also propose a zero-inflated Tweedie model that allows zero probability mass to exceed a traditional Tweedie distribution to model zero-inflated scRNA-seq data with excessive zero counts. Using both synthetic and published plate- and droplet-based scRNA-seq datasets, we perform a systematic benchmark evaluation of more than 10 representative DE methods and demonstrate that our method (Tweedieverse) outperforms the state-of-the-art DE approaches across experimental platforms in terms of statistical power and false discovery rate control. Our open-source software (R/Bioconductor package) is available at https://github.com/himelmallick/Tweedieverse.

Multivariable association discovery in population-scale meta-omics studies

It is challenging to associate features such as human health outcomes, diet, environmental conditions, or other metadata to microbial community measurements, due in part to their quantitative properties. Microbiome multi-omics are typically noisy, sparse (zero-inflated), high-dimensional, extremely non-normal, and often in the form of count or compositional measurements. Here we introduce an optimized combination of novel and established methodology to assess multivariable association of microbial community features with complex metadata in population-scale observational studies. Our approach, MaAsLin 2 (Microbiome Multivariable Associations with Linear Models), uses generalized linear and mixed models to accommodate a wide variety of modern epidemiological studies, including cross-sectional and longitudinal designs, as well as a variety of data types (e.g., counts and relative abundances) with or without covariates and repeated measurements. To construct this method, we conducted a large-scale evaluation of a broad range of scenarios under which straightforward identification of meta-omics associations can be challenging. These simulation studies reveal that MaAsLin 2's linear model preserves statistical power in the presence of repeated measures and multiple covariates, while accounting for the nuances of meta-omics features and controlling false discovery. We also applied MaAsLin 2 to a microbial multi-omics dataset from the Integrative Human Microbiome (HMP2) project which, in addition to reproducing established results, revealed a unique, integrated landscape of inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD) across multiple time points and omics profiles.

Multivariable association discovery in population-scale meta-omics studies

It is challenging to associate features such as human health outcomes, diet, environmental conditions, or other metadata to microbial community measurements, due in part to their quantitative properties. Microbiome multi-omics are typically noisy, sparse (zero-inflated), high-dimensional, extremely non-normal, and often in the form of count or compositional measurements. Here we introduce an optimized combination of novel and established methodology to assess multivariable association of microbial community features with complex metadata in population-scale observational studies. Our approach, MaAsLin 2 (Microbiome Multivariable Associations with Linear Models), uses generalized linear and mixed models to accommodate a wide variety of modern epidemiological studies, including cross-sectional and longitudinal designs, as well as a variety of data types (e.g., counts and relative abundances) with or without covariates and repeated measurements. To construct this method, we conducted a large-scale evaluation of a broad range of scenarios under which straightforward identification of meta-omics associations can be challenging. These simulation studies reveal that MaAsLin 2's linear model preserves statistical power in the presence of repeated measures and multiple covariates, while accounting for the nuances of meta-omics features and controlling false discovery. We also applied MaAsLin 2 to a microbial multi-omics dataset from the Integrative Human Microbiome (HMP2) project which, in addition to reproducing established results, revealed a unique, integrated landscape of inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD) across multiple time points and omics profiles.

A statistical model for describing and simulating microbial community profiles

Many methods have been developed for statistical analysis of microbial community profiles, but due to the complex nature of typical microbiome measurements (e.g. sparsity, zero-inflation, non-independence, and compositionality) and of the associated underlying biology, it is difficult to compare or evaluate such methods within a single systematic framework. To address this challenge, we developed SparseDOSSA (Sparse Data Observations for the Simulation of Synthetic Abundances): a statistical model of microbial ecological population structure, which can be used to parameterize real-world microbial community profiles and to simulate new, realistic profiles of known structure for methods evaluation. Specifically, SparseDOSSA's model captures marginal microbial feature abundances as a zero-inflated log-normal distribution, with additional model components for absolute cell counts and the sequence read generation process, microbe-microbe, and microbe-environment interactions. Together, these allow fully known covariance structure between synthetic features (i.e. "taxa") or between features and "phenotypes" to be simulated for method benchmarking. Here, we demonstrate SparseDOSSA's performance for 1) accurately modeling human-associated microbial population profiles; 2) generating synthetic communities with controlled population and ecological structures; 3) spiking-in true positive synthetic associations to benchmark analysis methods; and 4) recapitulating an end-to-end mouse microbiome feeding experiment. Together, these represent the most common analysis types in assessment of real microbial community environmental and epidemiological statistics, thus demonstrating SparseDOSSA's utility as a general-purpose aid for modeling communities and evaluating quantitative methods. An open-source implementation is available at http://huttenhower.sph.harvard.edu/sparsedossa2.

Sleep quality mediates the relationship between risk of obstructive sleep apnea and acute stress in young adults

Intermittent hypoxia and transient arousals in obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) can lead to poor sleep quality and acute stress. Rising levels of obesity and increased incidence of OSA in young adults predisposes them to acute stress. We propose a mediation model to assess if risk of OSA is associated with acute stress and if the relationship between risk for OSA and acute stress is mediated by sleep quality. 493 healthy individuals (F = 237, M = 256) from 18 - 25 years of age (mean age 20.3 ± 1.53 years) were screened for OSA, sleep quality and acute stress using STOP-BANG questionnaire, Pittsburg Sleep Quality Index and American Psychiatry Association's National Stressful Events Survey Acute Stress Disorder Short Scale (NSESS-S), respectively. 73 participants (17.3%) were found at an intermediate and high risk of OSA by STOP BANG questionnaire. 79 (16%) participants reported level of stress as 'None'. Mild, moderate and severe stress was present in 248 (50.3%), 109 (22.1%), 51 (10.3%) and 16 (3.2%) participants, respectively. The odds of having severe and extreme stress among those at risk of sleep apnea is 2.18 times higher than that among those not at risk of sleep apnea (OR: 2.18, 95%, confidence interval: 1.37-3.51). Sobel test established that the relationship between OSA and acute stress is mediated by sleep quality. Sleep quality mediates the relationship between risk for sleep apnea and acute stress. This highlights the importance of screening for OSA in young adults, particularly young men with high BMI, presenting with high stress levels.

The reciprocal Bayesian LASSO

A reciprocal LASSO (rLASSO) regularization employs a decreasing penalty function as opposed to conventional penalization approaches that use increasing penalties on the coefficients, leading to stronger parsimony and superior model selection relative to traditional shrinkage methods. Here we consider a fully Bayesian formulation of the rLASSO problem, which is based on the observation that the rLASSO estimate for linear regression parameters can be interpreted as a Bayesian posterior mode estimate when the regression parameters are assigned independent inverse Laplace priors. Bayesian inference from this posterior is possible using an expanded hierarchy motivated by a scale mixture of double Pareto or truncated normal distributions. On simulated and real datasets, we show that the Bayesian formulation outperforms its classical cousin in estimation, prediction, and variable selection across a wide range of scenarios while offering the advantage of posterior inference. Finally, we discuss other variants of this new approach and provide a unified framework for variable selection using flexible reciprocal penalties. All methods described in this article are publicly available as an R package at: https://github.com/himelmallick/BayesRecipe.

Omics community detection using multi-resolution clustering

MOTIVATION

The discovery of biologically interpretable and clinically actionable communities in heterogeneous omics data is a necessary first step towards deriving mechanistic insights into complex biological phenomena. Here we present a novel clustering approach, omeClust, for community detection in omics profiles by simultaneously incorporating similarities among measurements and the overall complex structure of the data.

RESULTS

We show that omeClust outperforms published methods in inferring the true community structure as measured by both sensitivity and misclassification rate on simulated datasets. We further validated omeClust in diverse, multiple omics datasets, revealing new communities and functionally related groups in microbial strains, cell line gene expression patterns, and fetal genomic variation. We also derived enrichment scores attributable to putatively meaningful biological factors in these datasets that can serve as hypothesis generators facilitating new sets of testable hypotheses.

AVAILABILITY

omeClust is open-source software, and the implementation is available online at http://github.com/omicsEye/omeClust.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Association Between Sulfur-Metabolizing Bacterial Communities in Stool and Risk of Distal Colorectal Cancer in Men

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Sulfur-metabolizing microbes, which convert dietary sources of sulfur into genotoxic hydrogen sulfide (H2S), have been associated with development of colorectal cancer (CRC). We identified a dietary pattern associated with sulfur-metabolizing bacteria in stool and then investigated its association with risk of incident CRC using data from a large prospective study of men.

METHODS

We collected data from 51,529 men enrolled in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study since 1986 to determine the association between sulfur-metabolizing bacteria in stool and risk of CRC over 26 years of follow-up. First, in a subcohort of 307 healthy men, we profiled serial stool metagenomes and metatranscriptomes and assessed diet using semiquantitative food frequency questionnaires to identify food groups associated with 43 bacterial species involved in sulfur metabolism. We used these data to develop a sulfur microbial dietary score. We then used Cox proportional hazards modeling to evaluate adherence to this pattern among eligible individuals (n = 48,246) from 1986 through 2012 with risk for incident CRC.

RESULTS

Foods associated with higher sulfur microbial diet scores included increased consumption of processed meats and low-calorie drinks and lower consumption of vegetables and legumes. Increased sulfur microbial diet scores were associated with risk of distal colon and rectal cancers, after adjusting for other risk factors (multivariable relative risk, highest vs lowest quartile, 1.43; 95% confidence interval 1.14-1.81; P-trend = .002). In contrast, sulfur microbial diet scores were not associated with risk of proximal colon cancer (multivariable relative risk 0.86; 95% CI 0.65-1.14; P-trend = .31).

CONCLUSIONS

In an analysis of participants in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study, we found that long-term adherence to a dietary pattern associated with sulfur-metabolizing bacteria in stool was associated with an increased risk of distal CRC. Further studies are needed to determine how sulfur-metabolizing bacteria might contribute to CRC pathogenesis.

Global chemical effects of the microbiome include new bile-acid conjugations

A mosaic of cross-phylum chemical interactions occurs between all metazoans and their microbiomes. A number of molecular families that are known to be produced by the microbiome have a marked effect on the balance between health and disease^1-9. Considering the diversity of the human microbiome (which numbers over 40,000 operational taxonomic units¹⁰), the effect of the microbiome on the chemistry of an entire animal remains underexplored. Here we use mass spectrometry informatics and data visualization approaches^11-13 to provide an assessment of the effects of the microbiome on the chemistry of an entire mammal by comparing metabolomics data from germ-free and specific-pathogen-free mice. We found that the microbiota affects the chemistry of all organs. This included the amino acid conjugations of host bile acids that were used to produce phenylalanocholic acid, tyrosocholic acid and leucocholic acid, which have not previously been characterized despite extensive research on bile-acid chemistry¹⁴. These bile-acid conjugates were also found in humans, and were enriched in patients with inflammatory bowel disease or cystic fibrosis. These compounds agonized the farnesoid X receptor in vitro, and mice gavaged with the compounds showed reduced expression of bile-acid synthesis genes in vivo. Further studies are required to confirm whether these compounds have a physiological role in the host, and whether they contribute to gut diseases that are associated with microbiome dysbiosis.

Predictive metabolomic profiling of microbial communities using amplicon or metagenomic sequences

Microbial community metabolomics, particularly in the human gut, are beginning to provide a new route to identify functions and ecology disrupted in disease. However, these data can be costly and difficult to obtain at scale, while amplicon or shotgun metagenomic sequencing data are readily available for populations of many thousands. Here, we describe a computational approach to predict potentially unobserved metabolites in new microbial communities, given a model trained on paired metabolomes and metagenomes from the environment of interest. Focusing on two independent human gut microbiome datasets, we demonstrate that our framework successfully recovers community metabolic trends for more than 50% of associated metabolites. Similar accuracy is maintained using amplicon profiles of coral-associated, murine gut, and human vaginal microbiomes. We also provide an expected performance score to guide application of the model in new samples. Our results thus demonstrate that this 'predictive metabolomic' approach can aid in experimental design and provide useful insights into the thousands of community profiles for which only metagenomes are currently available.

Multi-omics of the gut microbial ecosystem in inflammatory bowel diseases

Inflammatory bowel diseases, which include Crohn’s disease and ulcerative colitis, affect several million individuals worldwide. Crohn’s disease and ulcerative colitis are complex diseases that are heterogeneous at the clinical, immunological, molecular, genetic, and microbial levels. Individual contributing factors have been the focus of extensive research. As part of the Integrative Human Microbiome Project (HMP2 or iHMP), we followed 132 subjects for one year each to generate integrated longitudinal molecular profiles of host and microbial activity during disease (up to 24 time points each; in total 2,965 stool, biopsy, and blood specimens). Here we present the results, which provide a comprehensive view of functional dysbiosis in the gut microbiome during inflammatory bowel disease activity. We demonstrate a characteristic increase in facultative anaerobes at the expense of obligate anaerobes, as well as molecular disruptions in microbial transcription (for example, among clostridia), metabolite pools (acylcarnitines, bile acids, and short-chain fatty acids), and levels of antibodies in host serum. Periods of disease activity were also marked by increases in temporal variability, with characteristic taxonomic, functional, and biochemical shifts. Finally, integrative analysis identified microbial, biochemical, and host factors central to this dysregulation. The study’s infrastructure resources, results, and data, which are available through the Inflammatory Bowel Disease Multi’omics Database (http://ibdmdb.org), provide the most comprehensive description to date of host and microbial activities in inflammatory bowel diseases.

The Inflammatory Bowel Disease Multi’omics Database includes longitudinal data encompassing a multitude of analyses of stool, blood and biopsies of more than 100 individuals, and provides a comprehensive description of host and microbial activities in inflammatory bowel diseases.

Author Correction: Gut microbiome structure and metabolic activity in inflammatory bowel disease

In the Supplementary Tables 2, 4 and 6 originally published with this Article, the authors mistakenly included sample identifiers in the form of UMCGs rather than UMCG IBDs in the validation cohort; this has now been amended.

Gut microbiome structure and metabolic activity in inflammatory bowel disease

The inflammatory bowel diseases (IBDs), which include Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC), are multifactorial chronic conditions of the gastrointestinal tract. While IBD has been associated with dramatic changes in the gut microbiota, changes in the gut metabolome-the molecular interface between host and microbiota-are less well understood. To address this gap, we performed untargeted metabolomic and shotgun metagenomic profiling of cross-sectional stool samples from discovery (n = 155) and validation (n = 65) cohorts of CD, UC and non-IBD control patients. Metabolomic and metagenomic profiles were broadly correlated with faecal calprotectin levels (a measure of gut inflammation). Across >8,000 measured metabolite features, we identified chemicals and chemical classes that were differentially abundant in IBD, including enrichments for sphingolipids and bile acids, and depletions for triacylglycerols and tetrapyrroles. While > 50% of differentially abundant metabolite features were uncharacterized, many could be assigned putative roles through metabolomic 'guilt by association' (covariation with known metabolites). Differentially abundant species and functions from the metagenomic profiles reflected adaptation to oxidative stress in the IBD gut, and were individually consistent with previous findings. Integrating these data, however, we identified 122 robust associations between differentially abundant species and well-characterized differentially abundant metabolites, indicating possible mechanistic relationships that are perturbed in IBD. Finally, we found that metabolome- and metagenome-based classifiers of IBD status were highly accurate and, like the vast majority of individual trends, generalized well to the independent validation cohort. Our findings thus provide an improved understanding of perturbations of the microbiome-metabolome interface in IBD, including identification of many potential diagnostic and therapeutic targets.

Group regularization for zero-inflated negative binomial regression models with an application to health care demand in Germany

In many biomedical applications, covariates are naturally grouped, with variables in the same group being systematically related or statistically correlated. Under such settings, variable selection must be conducted at both group and individual variable levels. Motivated by the widespread availability of zero-inflated count outcomes and grouped covariates in many practical applications, we consider group regularization for zero-inflated negative binomial regression models. Using a least squares approximation of the mixture likelihood and a variety of group-wise penalties on the coefficients, we propose a unified algorithm (Gooogle: Group Regularization for Zero-inflated Count Regression Models) to efficiently compute the entire regularization path of the estimators. We investigate the finite sample performance of these methods through extensive simulation experiments and the analysis of a German health care demand dataset. Finally, we derive theoretical properties of these methods under reasonable assumptions, which further provides deeper insight into the asymptotic behavior of these approaches. The open source software implementation of this method is publicly available at: https://github.com/himelmallick/Gooogle.

Differences in Clinical Course, Genetics, and the Microbiome Between Familial and Sporadic Inflammatory Bowel Diseases

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Family history is the strongest risk factor for developing Crohn's disease [CD] or ulcerative colitis [UC]. We investigated whether the proximity of relationship with the affected relative and concordance for type of inflammatory bowel disease [IBD] modifies the effect of family history on phenotype and disease severity.

METHOD

This cross-sectional study included patients with a confirmed diagnosis of IBD in a clinical registry. Family history of IBD was assessed by a questionnaire ascertaining presence of disease in a first-first-degree, second-second-degree or distant relative. Our primary outcomes were disease phenotype as per the Montreal classification and severity measured by need for immunomodulator, biologic, or surgical therapy. Genotyping was performed on the Immunochip and faecal samples were subjected to 16S rRNA microbiome sequencing.

RESULTS

Our study included 2136 patients with IBD [1197 CD, 939 UC]. Just under one-third [32%] of cases ere familial IBD [17% first-degree, 21% second-degree]. Familial IBD was diagnosed at an earlier age, both in CD [26 vs 28 years, p = 0.0006] and UC [29 vs 32 years, p = 0.01]. Among CD patients, a positive family history for CD was associated with an increased risk for complicated disease in the presence of an affected family member (odds ratio [OR] 1.48, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.07-2.03). However, this effect was significant only for first-degree relatives [OR 1.82, 95% CI 1.19-2.78].

CONCLUSIONS

A family history of CD in first-degree relatives was associated with complicated CD. Family history discordant for type of IBD or in distant relatives did not influence disease phenotype or natural history.

Stability of the human faecal microbiome in a cohort of adult men

Characterizing the stability of the gut microbiome is important to exploit it as a therapeutic target and diagnostic biomarker. We metagenomically and metatranscriptomically sequenced the faecal microbiomes of 308 participants in the Health Professionals Follow-Up Study. Participants provided four stool samples-one pair collected 24-72 h apart and a second pair ~6 months later. Within-person taxonomic and functional variation was consistently lower than between-person variation over time. In contrast, metatranscriptomic profiles were comparably variable within and between subjects due to higher within-subject longitudinal variation. Metagenomic instability accounted for ~74% of corresponding metatranscriptomic instability. The rest was probably attributable to sources such as regulation. Among the pathways that were differentially regulated, most were consistently over- or under-transcribed at each time point. Together, these results suggest that a single measurement of the faecal microbiome can provide long-term information regarding organismal composition and functional potential, but repeated or short-term measures may be necessary for dynamic features identified by metatranscriptomics.

Metatranscriptome of human faecal microbial communities in a cohort of adult men

The gut microbiome is intimately related to human health, but it is not yet known which functional activities are driven by specific microbes’ ecological configurations or transcription. We report a large-scale investigation of 372 human fecal metatranscriptomes and 929 metagenomes from a subset of 308 men in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study. We identified a metatranscriptomic “core” universally transcribed over time and across participants, often by different microbes. In contrast to the housekeeping functions enriched in this core, a “variable” metatranscriptome included specialized pathways that were differentially expressed both across participants and among microbes. Finally, longitudinal metagenomic profiles allowed ecological interaction network reconstruction, which remained stable over the six-month timespan, as did strain tracking within and between participants. These results provide an initial characterization of human fecal microbial ecology into core, subject-specific, microbe-specific, and temporally-variable transcription, and they differentiate metagenomically versus metatranscriptomically informative aspects of the human fecal microbiome.

Experimental design and quantitative analysis of microbial community multiomics

Studies of the microbiome have become increasingly sophisticated, and multiple sequence-based, molecular methods as well as culture-based methods exist for population-scale microbiome profiles. To link the resulting host and microbial data types to human health, several experimental design considerations, data analysis challenges, and statistical epidemiological approaches must be addressed. Here, we survey current best practices for experimental design in microbiome molecular epidemiology, including technologies for generating, analyzing, and integrating microbiome multiomics data. We highlight studies that have identified molecular bioactives that influence human health, and we suggest steps for scaling translational microbiome research to high-throughput target discovery across large populations.

A Bayesian method for detecting pairwise associations in compositional data

Compositional data consist of vectors of proportions normalized to a constant sum from a basis of unobserved counts. The sum constraint makes inference on correlations between unconstrained features challenging due to the information loss from normalization. However, such correlations are of long-standing interest in fields including ecology. We propose a novel Bayesian framework (BAnOCC: Bayesian Analysis of Compositional Covariance) to estimate a sparse precision matrix through a LASSO prior. The resulting posterior, generated by MCMC sampling, allows uncertainty quantification of any function of the precision matrix, including the correlation matrix. We also use a first-order Taylor expansion to approximate the transformation from the unobserved counts to the composition in order to investigate what characteristics of the unobserved counts can make the correlations more or less difficult to infer. On simulated datasets, we show that BAnOCC infers the true network as well as previous methods while offering the advantage of posterior inference. Larger and more realistic simulated datasets further showed that BAnOCC performs well as measured by type I and type II error rates. Finally, we apply BAnOCC to a microbial ecology dataset from the Human Microbiome Project, which in addition to reproducing established ecological results revealed unique, competition-based roles for Proteobacteria in multiple distinct habitats.

Bayesian Bridge Regression

Classical bridge regression is known to possess many desirable statistical properties such as oracle, sparsity, and unbiasedness. One outstanding disadvantage of bridge regularization, however, is that it lacks a systematic approach to inference, reducing its flexibility in practical applications. In this study, we propose bridge regression from a Bayesian perspective. Unlike classical bridge regression that summarizes inference using a single point estimate, the proposed Bayesian method provides uncertainty estimates of the regression parameters, allowing coherent inference through the posterior distribution. Under a sparsity assumption non the high-dimensional parameter, we provide sufficient conditions for strong posterior consistency of the Bayesian bridge prior. On simulated datasets, we show that the proposed method performs well compared to several competing methods across a wide range of scenarios. Application to two real datasets further revealed that the proposed method performs as well as or better than published methods while offering the advantage of posterior inference.

Bayesian Group Bridge for Bi-level Variable Selection

A Bayesian bi-level variable selection method (BAGB: Bayesian Analysis of Group Bridge) is developed for regularized regression and classification. This new development is motivated by grouped data, where generic variables can be divided into multiple groups, with variables in the same group being mechanistically related or statistically correlated. As an alternative to frequentist group variable selection methods, BAGB incorporates structural information among predictors through a group-wise shrinkage prior. Posterior computation proceeds via an efficient MCMC algorithm. In addition to the usual ease-of-interpretation of hierarchical linear models, the Bayesian formulation produces valid standard errors, a feature that is notably absent in the frequentist framework. Empirical evidence of the attractiveness of the method is illustrated by extensive Monte Carlo simulations and real data analysis. Finally, several extensions of this new approach are presented, providing a unified framework for bi-level variable selection in general models with flexible penalties.

Negative binomial mixed models for analyzing microbiome count data

Background

Recent advances in next-generation sequencing (NGS) technology enable researchers to collect a large volume of metagenomic sequencing data. These data provide valuable resources for investigating interactions between the microbiome and host environmental/clinical factors. In addition to the well-known properties of microbiome count measurements, for example, varied total sequence reads across samples, over-dispersion and zero-inflation, microbiome studies usually collect samples with hierarchical structures, which introduce correlation among the samples and thus further complicate the analysis and interpretation of microbiome count data.

Results

In this article, we propose negative binomial mixed models (NBMMs) for detecting the association between the microbiome and host environmental/clinical factors for correlated microbiome count data. Although having not dealt with zero-inflation, the proposed mixed-effects models account for correlation among the samples by incorporating random effects into the commonly used fixed-effects negative binomial model, and can efficiently handle over-dispersion and varying total reads. We have developed a flexible and efficient IWLS (Iterative Weighted Least Squares) algorithm to fit the proposed NBMMs by taking advantage of the standard procedure for fitting the linear mixed models.

Conclusions

We evaluate and demonstrate the proposed method via extensive simulation studies and the application to mouse gut microbiome data. The results show that the proposed method has desirable properties and outperform the previously used methods in terms of both empirical power and Type I error. The method has been incorporated into the freely available R package BhGLM (http://www.ssg.uab.edu/bhglm/ and http://github.com/abbyyan3/BhGLM), providing a useful tool for analyzing microbiome data.

EM Adaptive LASSO-A Multilocus Modeling Strategy for Detecting SNPs Associated with Zero-inflated Count Phenotypes

Count data are increasingly ubiquitous in genetic association studies, where it is possible to observe excess zero counts as compared to what is expected based on standard assumptions. For instance, in rheumatology, data are usually collected in multiple joints within a person or multiple sub-regions of a joint, and it is not uncommon that the phenotypes contain enormous number of zeroes due to the presence of excessive zero counts in majority of patients. Most existing statistical methods assume that the count phenotypes follow one of these four distributions with appropriate dispersion-handling mechanisms: Poisson, Zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP), Negative Binomial, and Zero-inflated Negative Binomial (ZINB). However, little is known about their implications in genetic association studies. Also, there is a relative paucity of literature on their usefulness with respect to model misspecification and variable selection. In this article, we have investigated the performance of several state-of-the-art approaches for handling zero-inflated count data along with a novel penalized regression approach with an adaptive LASSO penalty, by simulating data under a variety of disease models and linkage disequilibrium patterns. By taking into account data-adaptive weights in the estimation procedure, the proposed method provides greater flexibility in multi-SNP modeling of zero-inflated count phenotypes. A fast coordinate descent algorithm nested within an EM (expectation-maximization) algorithm is implemented for estimating the model parameters and conducting variable selection simultaneously. Results show that the proposed method has optimal performance in the presence of multicollinearity, as measured by both prediction accuracy and empirical power, which is especially apparent as the sample size increases. Moreover, the Type I error rates become more or less uncontrollable for the competing methods when a model is misspecified, a phenomenon routinely encountered in practice.

Clinical trial designs incorporating predictive biomarkers

Development of oncologic therapies has traditionally been performed in a sequence of clinical trials intended to assess safety (phase I), preliminary efficacy (phase II), and improvement over the standard of care (phase III) in homogeneous (in terms of tumor type and disease stage) patient populations. As cancer has become increasingly understood on the molecular level, newer "targeted" drugs that inhibit specific cancer cell growth and survival mechanisms have increased the need for new clinical trial designs, wherein pertinent questions on the relationship between patient biomarkers and response to treatment can be answered. Herein, we review the clinical trial design literature from initial to more recently proposed designs for targeted agents or those treatments hypothesized to have enhanced effectiveness within patient subgroups (e.g., those with a certain biomarker value or who harbor a certain genetic tumor mutation). We also describe a number of real clinical trials where biomarker-based designs have been utilized, including a discussion of their respective advantages and challenges. As cancers become further categorized and/or reclassified according to individual patient and tumor features, we anticipate a continued need for novel trial designs to keep pace with the changing frontier of clinical cancer research.

Transcriptomes and shRNA suppressors in a TP53 allele-specific model of early-onset colon cancer in African Americans

African Americans are disproportionately affected by early-onset, high-grade malignancies. A fraction of this cancer health disparity can be explained by genetic differences between individuals of African or European descent. Here the wild-type Pro/Pro genotype at the TP53Pro72Arg (P72R) polymorphism (SNP: rs1042522) is more frequent in African Americans with cancer than in African Americans without cancer (51% vs. 37%), and is associated with a significant increase in the rates of cancer diagnosis in African Americans. To test the hypothesis that Tp53 allele-specific gene expression may contribute to African American cancer disparities, TP53 hemizygous knockout variants were generated and characterized in the RKO colon carcinoma cell line, which is wild type for TP53 and heterozygous at the TP53Pro72Arg locus. Transcriptome profiling, using RNAseq, in response to the DNA-damaging agent etoposide revealed a large number of Tp53-regulated transcripts, but also a subset of transcripts that were TP53Pro72Arg allele specific. In addition, a shRNA-library suppressor screen for Tp53 allele-specific escape from Tp53-induced arrest was performed. Several novel RNAi suppressors of Tp53 were identified, one of which, PRDM1β (BLIMP-1), was confirmed to be an Arg-specific transcript. Prdm1β silences target genes by recruiting H3K9 trimethyl (H3K9me3) repressive chromatin marks, and is necessary for stem cell differentiation. These results reveal a novel model for African American cancer disparity, in which the TP53 codon 72 allele influences lifetime cancer risk by driving damaged cells to differentiation through an epigenetic mechanism involving gene silencing.

IMPLICATIONS

TP53 P72R polymorphism significantly contributes to increased African American cancer disparity.

A risk algorithm for assessing short-term mortality for obese black and white men and women

OBJECTIVE

To develop and validate a mortality risk algorithm for obese black and white men and women to elucidate risk factors prognostic of short-term mortality among obese persons.

METHODS

Prospective cohort study. Reasons for geographic and racial differences in stroke (REGARDS) study, is a cohort of black and white men and women aged ≥45 years. Obese (≥30 kg m(-2) ) participants in REGARDS (n = 11 288) were randomly assigned to the derivation data set or an independent validation set.

RESULTS

During the mean follow-up period of 4.9 years, 8.9% (n = 504) in the derivation cohort and 8.7% (n = 492) in the validation cohort died. The best-fitting model based on data from the derivation cohort included demographic (age, sex), coronary heart disease (CHD) conditions (diabetes, systolic blood pressure, history of CHD), health behaviors (smoking, physical activity, alcohol use), and socioeconomic variables (income, use of physician services). The C-statistic when the model was applied to the validation cohort was 0.80. Observed and predicted rates of mortality were similar across deciles of mortality risk by race.

CONCLUSIONS

A risk algorithm was established and validated to predict mortality among black and white obese subjects based on CHD risk factors, behavioral risk factors, and socioeconomic status.

Multiple comparisons in genetic association studies: a hierarchical modeling approach

Multiple comparisons or multiple testing has been viewed as a thorny issue in genetic association studies aiming to detect disease-associated genetic variants from a large number of genotyped variants. We alleviate the problem of multiple comparisons by proposing a hierarchical modeling approach that is fundamentally different from the existing methods. The proposed hierarchical models simultaneously fit as many variables as possible and shrink unimportant effects towards zero. Thus, the hierarchical models yield more efficient estimates of parameters than the traditional methods that analyze genetic variants separately, and also coherently address the multiple comparisons problem due to largely reducing the effective number of genetic effects and the number of statistically "significant" effects. We develop a method for computing the effective number of genetic effects in hierarchical generalized linear models, and propose a new adjustment for multiple comparisons, the hierarchical Bonferroni correction, based on the effective number of genetic effects. Our approach not only increases the power to detect disease-associated variants but also controls the Type I error. We illustrate and evaluate our method with real and simulated data sets from genetic association studies. The method has been implemented in our freely available R package BhGLM (http://www.ssg.uab.edu/bhglm/).

A New Bayesian Lasso

Park and Casella (2008) provided the Bayesian lasso for linear models by assigning scale mixture of normal (SMN) priors on the parameters and independent exponential priors on their variances. In this paper, we propose an alternative Bayesian analysis of the lasso problem. A different hierarchical formulation of Bayesian lasso is introduced by utilizing the scale mixture of uniform (SMU) representation of the Laplace density. We consider a fully Bayesian treatment that leads to a new Gibbs sampler with tractable full conditional posterior distributions. Empirical results and real data analyses show that the new algorithm has good mixing property and performs comparably to the existing Bayesian method in terms of both prediction accuracy and variable selection. An ECM algorithm is provided to compute the MAP estimates of the parameters. Easy extension to general models is also briefly discussed.

Oronasopharyngeal suction versus wiping of the mouth and nose at birth: a randomised equivalency trial

BACKGROUND

Wiping of the mouth and nose at birth is an alternative method to oronasopharyngeal suction in delivery-room management of neonates, but whether these methods have equivalent effectiveness is unclear.

METHODS

For this randomised equivalency trial, neonates delivered at 35 weeks' gestation or later at the University of Alabama at Birmingham Hospital, Birmingham, AL, USA, between October, 2010, and November, 2011, were eligible. Before birth, neonates were randomly assigned gentle wiping of the face, mouth (implemented by the paediatric or obstetric resident), and nose with a towel (wipe group) or suction with a bulb syringe of the mouth and nostrils (suction group). The primary outcome was the respiratory rate in the first 24 h after birth. We hypothesised that respiratory rates would differ by fewer than 4 breaths per min between groups. Analysis was by intention to treat. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01197807.

FINDINGS

506 neonates born at a median of 39 weeks' gestation (IQR 38-40) were randomised. Three parents withdrew consent and 15 non-vigorous neonates with meconium-stained amniotic fluid were excluded. Among the 488 treated neonates, the mean respiratory rates in the first 24 h were 51 (SD 8) breaths per min in the wipe group and 50 (6) breaths per min in the suction group (difference of means 1 breath per min, 95% CI -2 to 0, p<0·001).

INTERPRETATION

Wiping the nose and mouth has equivalent efficacy to routine use of oronasopharyngeal suction in neonates born at or beyond 35 weeks' gestation.

FUNDING

None.

Mortality and intestinal failure in surgical necrotizing enterocolitis

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE

To examine whether as initial surgical intervention for necrotizing enterocolitis, primary peritoneal drainage as compared to primary laparotomy is associated with increased mortality or intestinal failure.

METHODS

Retrospective observational study of 240 infants with surgical necrotizing enterocolitis.

RESULTS

There was no difference concerning the composite outcome of mortality before discharge or survival with intestinal failure after adjusting for known covariates (Odds Ratio 1.73, 95% CI 0.88, 3.40). More surviving infants in the peritoneal drainage with subsequent salvage or secondary laparotomy had intestinal failure compared to those who received a peritoneal drain without subsequent laparotomy and survived (12% vs. 14% vs. 1%, p=0.015).

CONCLUSIONS

There is no difference between peritoneal drainage and laparotomy in infants with surgical necrotizing enterocolitis concerning the combined outcome of mortality or survival with intestinal failure. There is increased intestinal failure in surviving infants treated with peritoneal drain with either subsequent salvage or secondary laparotomy compared to peritoneal drainage alone.

Bayesian Methods for High Dimensional Linear Models

In this article, we present a selective overview of some recent developments in Bayesian model and variable selection methods for high dimensional linear models. While most of the reviews in literature are based on conventional methods, we focus on recently developed methods, which have proven to be successful in dealing with high dimensional variable selection. First, we give a brief overview of the traditional model selection methods (viz. Mallow's Cp, AIC, BIC, DIC), followed by a discussion on some recently developed methods (viz. EBIC, regularization), which have occupied the minds of many statisticians. Then, we review high dimensional Bayesian methods with a particular emphasis on Bayesian regularization methods, which have been used extensively in recent years. We conclude by briefly addressing the asymptotic behaviors of Bayesian variable selection methods for high dimensional linear models under different regularity conditions.

Role of the medial preoptic area in thermal preference of rats

This study was conducted to find out whether the medial preoptic area (mPOA) plays a role in the selection of ambient temperature by rats. Adult male Wistar rats were kept in an environmental chamber having three interconnected compartments, maintained at three different temperatures (18 degrees, 24 degrees and 30 degrees C) in which the animals could move freely from one compartment to the other. Normal rats preferred to stay at the chamber maintained at 24 degrees C for most of the time, during day and night. The temperature preference shifted to 30 degrees C after the mPOA of these rats had been lesioned by local administration of 5 micrograms of N-methyl D-aspartic acid (NMDA) in 0.2 microliter distilled water. The results of the study suggest that the mPOA acts as a fine tuning center for homeostatic regulation of thermal balance, including selection of appropriate thermal environment. It is proposed that after the mPOA lesion, the animal cannot assess properly the energy status of the body and thereby prefers a higher ambient temperature.

beta-adrenergic modulation of male sexual behavior elicited from the medial preoptic area in rats

This study was aimed at investigating the role of the adrenergic mechanism in the medial preoptic area (mPOA) in sexual arousal and copulatory performance. Saline, norepinephrine (NE), phenoxybenzamine (PBZ) and propranolol (PROP) were injected into the mPOA in different groups of rats. NE application (3 micrograms) facilitated the male sexual behavior by increasing sexual arousal and copulatory performance. On the other hand, application of PROP and PBZ produced inhibition of male sexual behavior. Effects produced by low doses of PROP were more significant than PBZ. The results, viewed in the light of other available reports, suggest that the mPOA beta-adrenergic mechanism is important in the elaboration of male sexual behavior.

Medial preoptic alpha-2 adrenoceptors in the regulation of sleep-wakefulness

Adrenergic alpha 2 agonist (clonidine) and its antagonist (yohimbine) were locally applied to the medial preoptic area (mPOA), to find out the role of alpha 2 receptors at this brain region in the regulation of sleep-wakefulness. Clonidine produced arousal, whereas yohimbine induced sleep in freely moving animals. Behavioural arousal produced by clonidine administration was accompanied by EEG synchronization. The alpha 2 receptor as the probable site of action of externally applied norepinephrine (NE), is discussed.

Changes in sleep-wakefulness after kainic acid lesion of the preoptic area in rats

The role of the preoptic area (POA) neurons in the regulation of sleep-wakefulness (S-W) has been investigated in this study. The cell-specific neurotoxin, kainic acid (KA), was injected (0.8 microgram in 0.2 microliter) intracerebrally for lesioning of the POA. S-W was assessed (on the basis of EEG, EMG, and EOG recordings) for a day before bilateral lesion of the POA, and for 3 weeks after the lesion. There was an increase in wakefulness, and a decrease in all the stages of sleep after KA lesion of the POA. The reduction in deep slow wave sleep (S2) and REM sleep (PS) were more marked than light slow wave sleep (S1), and these had not shown any recovery even after 3 weeks of lesion. Two days after the lesion, the reduction in sleep was much more marked during the daytime than at night. There was an increase in locomotor activity, especially during the daytime, though it was only statistically significant on the 6th and the 10th day after the lesion. This study shows that the POA neurons are involved in the induction and maintenance of sleep. The lesion did not have a long lasting effect on the circadian distribution of sleep but the changes in locomotor activity seem to persist for a longer period.