Recent Advances in the Use of the Mortality Syndromic Surveillance System-New York City, 2015-2020

OBJECTIVE

New York City's automated mortality syndromic surveillance system monitors temporal and spatial patterns in mortality. To describe the use of the syndromic surveillance system, we used the system to find mortality patterns for the 15 leading causes of death and for deaths from rare and reportable diseases in New York City from February 2015 through June 2020. We used results to find aberrations that indicate threats to public health.

METHODS

We used unobserved components models to analyze time series of mortality counts for leading causes of death, historical limits methods for rare and reportable diseases, and SaTScan for temporal-spatial cluster analysis. We obtained data on the number of deaths from the electronic death registry system maintained by the city's Bureau of Vital Statistics.

RESULTS

The mortality syndromic surveillance system detected an increase in the number of deaths from heart disease by April 1, 2020, when 75.0 deaths occurred on March 24, 2020, instead of an expected 45.8 deaths (95% upper prediction limit of 61.0) and an increase in the number of deaths from all causes on March 20, 2020, when 194.0 deaths were observed while 150.1 deaths were expected (95% upper prediction limit of 178.0). The number of deaths from all causes returned to normal the week beginning June 14, 2020, when 990.0 deaths were observed and 998.8 deaths were expected.

PRACTICE IMPLICATIONS

When compared with efforts from New York City to provide yearly vital statistics, the automated mortality syndromic surveillance system can provide timely mortality data with fewer resources and raise the capacity to detect anomalous increases in mortality.

Descriptive study of causes of death and COVID-19-associated morbidities from the New York City electronic death record: first wave of the pandemic March-July 2020

OBJECTIVE

Assessing excess deaths from benchmarks across causes of death during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic and identifying morbidities most frequently mentioned alongside COVID-19 deaths in the death record.

METHODS

Descriptive study of death records between 11 March 2020 and 27 July 2020, from the New York City Bureau of Vital Statistics. Mortality counts and percentages were compared with the average for the same calendar period of the previous 2 years. Distributions of morbidities from among forty categories of conditions were generated citywide and by sex, race/ethnicity and four age groups. Causes of death were assumed to follow Poisson processes for Z-score construction.

RESULTS

Within the study period, 46 563 all-cause deaths were reported; 132.9% higher than the average for the same period of the previous 2 years (19 989). Of those 46 563 records, 19 789 (42.5%) report COVID-19 as underlying cause of death. COVID-19 was the most prevalent cause across all demographics, with respiratory conditions (prominently pneumonia), hypertension and diabetes frequently mentioned morbidities. Black non-Hispanics had greater proportions of mentions of pneumonia, hypertension, and diabetes. Hispanics had the largest proportion of COVID-19 deaths (52.9%). Non-COVID-19 excess deaths relative to the previous 2-year averages were widely reported.

CONCLUSION

Mortality directly due to COVID-19 was accompanied by significant increases across most other causes from their reference averages, potentially suggesting a sizable COVID-19 death undercount. Indirect effects due to COVID-19 may partially account for some increases, but findings are hardly dispositive. Unavailability of vaccines for the time period precludes any impact over excess deaths. Respiratory and cardiometabolic-related conditions were most frequently reported among COVID-19 deaths across demographic characteristics.

Predictors and Trends in First-Trimester Hemoglobin A1c Screening in New York City, 2009 to 2017

Glycated hemoglobin is an adjunct tool in early pregnancy to assess glycemic control. We examined trends and maternal predictors for those who had A1c screening in early pregnancy using hospital discharge and vital registry data between 2009 and 2017 linked with the New York City A1C Registry (N = 798,312). First-trimester A1c screening increased from 2.3% in 2009 to 7.7% in 2017. The likelihood of screening became less targeted to high-risk patients over time, with a decrease in mean A1c values from 5.8% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 5.8, 5.9) to 5.3 (95% CI: 5.3, 5.4). The prevalence of gestational diabetes mellitus increased while testing became less discriminate for those with high-risk factors, including pregestational type 2 diabetes, chronic hypertension, obesity, age over 40 years, as well as Asian or Black non-Hispanic race/ethnicity. KEY POINTS: · First-trimester A1c screening increased from 2.3% in 2009 to 7.7% in 2017 in New York City.. · The likelihood of screening became less targeted to high-risk patients over time.. · The prevalence of gestational diabetes mellitus increased, while testing became less discriminate..

Influence of Gestational Diabetes Mellitus on Diabetes Risk and Glycemic Control in a Retrospective Population-Based Cohort

OBJECTIVE

Racial/ethnic-specific estimates of the influence of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) on type 2 diabetes remain underexplored in large population-based cohorts. We estimated racial/ethnic differences in the influence of GDM on diabetes risk and glycemic control in a multiethnic, population-based cohort of postpartum women.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Hospital discharge and vital registry data for New York City (NYC) births between 2009 and 2011 were linked with NYC A1C Registry data between 2009 and 2017. Women with baseline diabetes (n = 2,810) were excluded for a final birth cohort of 336,276. GDM on time to diabetes onset (two A1C tests of ≥6.5% from 12 weeks postpartum onward) or glucose control (first test of A1C <7.0% following diagnosis) was assessed using Cox regression with a time-varying exposure. Models were adjusted for sociodemographic and clinical factors and stratified by race/ethnicity.

RESULTS

The cumulative incidence for diabetes was 11.8% and 0.6% among women with and without GDM. The adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) of GDM status on diabetes risk was 11.5 (95% CI 10.8, 12.3) overall, with slight differences by race/ethnicity. GDM was associated with a lower likelihood of glycemic control (aHR 0.85; 95% CI 0.79, 0.92), with the largest negative influence among Black (aHR 0.77; 95% CI 0.68, 0.88) and Hispanic (aHR 0.84; 95% CI 0.74, 0.95) women. Adjustment for screening bias and loss to follow-up modestly attenuated racial/ethnic differences in diabetes risk but had little influence on glycemic control.

CONCLUSIONS

Understanding racial/ethnic differences in the influence of GDM on diabetes progression is critical to disrupt life course cardiometabolic disparities.

Neighborhood Food Environment and Birth Weight Outcomes in New York City

Importance

Infants born with unhealthy birth weight are at greater risk for long-term health complications, but little is known about how neighborhood characteristics (eg, walkability, food environment) may affect birth weight outcomes.

Objective

To assess whether neighborhood-level characteristics (poverty rate, food environment, and walkability) are associated with risk of unhealthy birth weight outcomes and to evaluate whether gestational weight gain mediated these associations.

Design, Setting, and Participants

The population-based cross-sectional study included births in the 2015 vital statistics records from the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene. Only singleton births and observations with complete birth weight and covariate data were included. Analyses were performed from November 2021 to March 2022.

Exposures

Residential neighborhood-level characteristics, including poverty, food environment (healthy and unhealthy food retail establishments), and walkability (measured by both walkable destinations and a neighborhood walkability index combining walkability measures like street intersection and transit stop density). Neighborhood-level variables categorized into quartiles.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The main outcomes were birth certificate birth weight measures including small for gestational age (SGA), large for gestational age (LGA), and sex-specific birth weight for gestational age z-score. Generalized linear mixed-effects models and hierarchical linear models estimated risk ratios for associations between density of neighborhood-level characteristics within a 1-km buffer of residential census block centroid and birth weight outcomes.

Results

The study included 106 194 births in New York City. The mean (SD) age of pregnant individuals in the sample was 29.9 (6.1) years. Prevalence of SGA and LGA were 12.9% and 8.4%, respectively. Residence in the highest density quartile of healthy food retail establishments compared with the lowest quartile was associated with lower adjusted risk of SGA (with adjustment for individual covariates including gestational weight gain z-score: risk ratio [RR], 0.89; 95% CI 0.83-0.97). Higher neighborhood density of unhealthy food retail establishments was associated with higher adjusted risk of delivering an infant classified as SGA (fourth vs first quartile: RR, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.01-1.24). The RR for the association between density of unhealthy food retail establishments and risk of LGA was higher after adjustment for all covariates in each quartile compared with quartile 1 (second: RR, 1.12 [95% CI, 1.04-1.20]; third: RR, 1.18 [95% CI, 1.08-1.29]; fourth: RR, 1.16; [95% CI, 1.04-1.29]). There were no associations between neighborhood walkability and birth weight outcomes (SGA for fourth vs first quartile: RR, 1.01 [95% CI, 0.94-1.08]; LGA for fourth vs first quartile: RR, 1.06 [95% CI, 0.98-1.14]).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this population-based cross-sectional study, healthfulness of neighborhood food environments was associated with risk of SGA and LGA. The findings support use of urban design and planning guidelines to improve food environments to support healthy pregnancies and birth weight.

The application of intersectional multilevel analysis of individual heterogeneity and discriminatory accuracy (MAIHDA) to examine birthweight inequities in New York City

Exploring the intersection of dimensions of social identity is critical for understanding drivers of health inequities. We used multilevel analysis of individual heterogeneity and discriminatory accuracy (MAIHDA) to examine the intersection of age, race/ethnicity, education, and nativity status on infant birthweight among singleton births in New York City from 2012 to 2018 (N = 725,875). We found evidence of intersectional effects of various systems of oppression on birthweight inequities and identified U.S.-born Black women as having infants of lower-than-expected birthweights. The MAIHDA approach should be used to identify intersectional causes of health inequities and individuals affected most to develop policies and interventions redressing inequities.

Birth equity on the front lines: Impact of a community-based doula program in Brooklyn, NY

BACKGROUND

We assessed whether participation in Healthy Start Brooklyn's By My Side Birth Support Program-a maternal-health program providing community-based doula support during pregnancy, labor and delivery, and the early postpartum period-was associated with improved birth outcomes. By My Side takes a strength-based approach that aligns with the doula principles of respecting the client's autonomy, providing culturally appropriate care without judgment or conditions, and promoting informed decision making.

METHODS

Using a matched cohort design, birth certificate records for By My Side participants from 2010 through 2017 (n = 603) were each matched to three controls who also lived in the program area (n = 1809). Controls were matched on maternal age, race/ethnicity, education level, and trimester of prenatal-care initiation, using the simple random sampling method. The sample was restricted to singleton births. The odds of preterm birth, low birthweight, and cesarean birth were estimated, using conditional logistic regression.

RESULTS

By My Side participants had lower odds of having a preterm birth (5.6% vs 11.9%, P < .0001) or a low-birthweight baby (5.8% vs 9.7%, P = .0031) than controls. There was no statistically significant difference in the odds of cesarean delivery.

CONCLUSION

Participation in the By My Side Birth Support Program was associated with lower odds of preterm birth and low birthweight for participants, who were predominantly Black and Hispanic. Investing in doula services is an important way to address birth inequities among higher risk populations such as birthing people of color and those living in poverty. It could also help shape a new vision of the maternal-health system, placing the needs and well-being of birthing people at the center.

Impact of new labor management guidelines on Cesarean rates among low-risk births at New York City hospitals: A controlled interrupted time series analysis

PURPOSE

To examine the impact of the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists and Society for Maternal-Fetal Medicine (ACOG-SMFM) 2014 recommendations for preventing unnecessary primary Cesareans.

METHODS

In a population-based cohort of births in New York City from 2012 to 2016, we used controlled interrupted time series analyses to estimate changes in age-standardized Cesarean rates among nulliparous, term, singleton vertex (NTSV) deliveries.

RESULTS

Among 192,405 NTSV births across 40 hospitals, the age-standardized NTSV Cesarean rate decreased after the ACOG-SMFM recommendations from 25.8% to 24.0% (Risk ratio [RR]: 0.93; 95% CI 0.89, 0.97), with no change in the control series. Decreases were observed among non-Hispanic White women (RR: 0.89; 95% CI 0.82, 0.97), but not among non-Hispanic Black women (RR: 0.97; 95% CI 0.88, 1.07), Asian/Pacific Islanders (RR: 1.01; 95% CI 0.91, 1.12), or Hispanic women (RR: 0.94; 95% CI 0.86, 1.02). Similar patterns were observed at teaching hospitals, with no change at nonteaching hospitals.

CONCLUSIONS

While low-risk Cesarean rates may be modifiable through changes in labor management, additional research, and interventions to address Cesarean disparities, are needed.

Neighbourhood walkability is associated with risk of gestational diabetes: A cross-sectional study in New York City

BACKGROUND

Despite the links between neighbourhood walkability and physical activity, body size and risk of diabetes, there are few studies of neighbourhood walkability and risk of gestational diabetes (GD).

OBJECTIVES

Assess whether higher neighbourhood walkability is associated with lower risk of GD in New York City (NYC).

METHODS

Cross-sectional analyses of a neighbourhood walkability index (NWI) score and density of walkable destinations (DWD) and risk of GD in 109,863 births recorded in NYC in 2015. NWI and DWD were measured for the land area of 1 km radius circles around the geographic centroid of each Census block of residence. Mixed generalised linear models, with robust standard error estimation and random intercepts for NYC Community Districts, were used to estimate risk ratios for GD for increasing quartiles of each of the neighbourhood walkability measures after adjustment for the pregnant individual's age, race and ethnicity, parity, education, nativity, and marital status and the neighbourhood poverty rate.

RESULTS

Overall, 7.5% of pregnant individuals experienced GD. Risk of GD decreased across increasing quartiles of NWI, with an adjusted risk ratio of 0.81 (95% Confidence Interval (CI) 0.75, 0.87) comparing those living in areas in the 4th quartile of NWI to those in the first quartile. Similarly, for comparisons of the 4th to 1st quartile of DWD, the adjusted risk ratio for GD was 0.77 (95% CI 0.71, 0.84).

CONCLUSIONS

These analyses find support for the hypothesis that higher neighbourhood walkability is associated with a lower risk of GD. The analyses provide further health related support for urban design policies to increase walkability.

COVID-19-Specific Mortality among World Trade Center Health Registry Enrollees Who Resided in New York City

We examined the all-cause and COVID-19-specific mortality among World Trade Center Health Registry (WTCHR) enrollees. We also examined the socioeconomic factors associated with COVID-19-specific death. Mortality data from the NYC Bureau of Vital Statistics between 2015-2020 were linked to the WTCHR. COVID-19-specific death was defined as having positive COVID-19 tests that match to a death certificate or COVID-19 mentioned on the death certificate via text searching. We conducted step change and pulse regression to assess excess deaths. Limiting to those who died in 2019 (n = 210) and 2020 (n = 286), we examined factors associated with COVID-19-specific deaths using multinomial logistic regression. Death rate among WTCHR enrollees increased during the pandemic (RR: 1.70, 95% CL: 1.25-2.32), driven by the pulse in March-April 2020 (RR: 3.38, 95% CL: 2.62-4.30). No significantly increased death rate was observed during May-December 2020. Being non-Hispanic Black and having at least one co-morbidity had a higher likelihood of COVID-19-associated mortality than being non-Hispanic White and not having any co-morbidity (AOR: 2.43, 95% CL: 1.23-4.77; AOR: 2.86, 95% CL: 1.19-6.88, respectively). The racial disparity in COVID-19-specific deaths attenuated after including neighborhood proportion of essential workers in the model (AOR:1.98, 95% CL: 0.98-4.01). Racial disparities continue to impact mortality by differential occupational exposure and structural inequality in neighborhood representation. The WTC-exposed population are no exception. Continued efforts to reduce transmission risk in communities of color is crucial for addressing health inequities.

Variation and racial/ethnic disparities in Caesarean delivery at New York City hospitals: The contribution of hospital-level factors

PURPOSE

We aimed to quantify general and specific contextual effects associated with Caesarean delivery at New York City (NYC) hospitals, overall and by maternal race/ethnicity.

METHODS

Among 127,449 singleton, nulliparous births at NYC hospitals from 2015 to 2017, we used multilevel logistic regression to examine the association of hospital characteristics (public/private ownership, teaching status and delivery caseloads) with Caesarean delivery, overall, and by maternal race/ethnicity. We estimated the intra-class correlation (ICC) to examine general contextual effects and 80% interval odds ratios (IOR) and percentage of opposed odds ratios (POOR) to examine specific contextual effects.

RESULTS

Overall, 27.8% of births were Caesareans. The general contextual (hospital) effect on Caesarean delivery was small (ICC: 1.8%). Hospital characteristics associated with Caesarean delivery differed by maternal race/ethnicity, with delivery in teaching hospitals reducing the odds of Caesarean delivery among White (IOR: 0.31, 0.86; POOR: 4.7%) and Asian women (IOR: 0.41, 0.95; POOR: 7.3%), but not among Black (IOR: 0.51, 1.34; POOR: 30.7%) or Hispanic women (IOR: 0.44, 1.24; POOR: 22.6%). Hospital ownership and caseloads were not associated with Caesarean delivery for any group.

CONCLUSION

There is little within-hospital clustering of Caesarean delivery, suggesting that Caesarean disparities may not be explained by hospital of delivery.

Built By Epidemiologists For Epidemiologists: An Internal COVID-19 Dashboard for Real Time Situational Awareness in New York City

Objective

New York City (NYC) experienced a large first wave of COVID-19 in the spring of 2020, but the Health Department lacked tools to easily visualize and analyze incoming surveillance data to inform response activities. To streamline ongoing surveillance, a group of infectious disease epidemiologists built an interactive dashboard using open-source software to monitor demographic, spatial, and temporal trends in COVID-19 epidemiology in NYC in near-real time for internal use by other surveillance and epidemiology experts.

Materials and methods

Existing surveillance databases and systems were leveraged to create daily analytic datasets of COVID-19 case and testing information, aggregated by week and key demographics. The dashboard was developed iteratively using R, and includes interactive graphs, tables, and maps summarizing recent COVID-19 epidemiologic trends. Additional data and interactive features were incorporated to provide further information on the spread of COVID-19 in NYC.

Results

The dashboard allows key staff to quickly review situational data, identify concerning trends, and easily maintain granular situational awareness of COVID-19 epidemiology in NYC.

Discussion

The dashboard is used to inform weekly surveillance summaries and alleviated the burden of manual report production on infectious disease epidemiologists. The system was built by and for epidemiologists, which is critical to its utility and functionality. Interactivity allows users to understand broad and granular data, and flexibility in dashboard development means new metrics and visualizations can be developed as needed.

Conclusions

Additional investment and development of public health informatics tools, along with standardized frameworks for local health jurisdictions to analyze and visualize data in emergencies, are warranted.

Lay Summary

New York City (NYC) experienced a large first wave of COVID-19 in the spring of 2020, but the Health Department lacked tools to easily visualize and analyze incoming surveillance data to inform response activities. To streamline ongoing surveillance, a group of infectious disease epidemiologists built an interactive dashboard using open-source software to monitor demographic, spatial, and temporal trends in COVID-19 epidemiology in NYC in near-real time for internal use by other surveillance and epidemiology experts.

The dashboard allows key staff to quickly identify concerning trends and easily maintain granular situational awareness of COVID-19 epidemiology in NYC, and has alleviated the burden of manual report production on infectious disease epidemiologists. The system was built by and for epidemiologists, which is critical to its utility and functionality. Interactivity allows users to understand broad and granular data, and flexibility in dashboard development means new metrics and visualizations can be developed as needed.

Additional investment and development of public health informatics tools, along with standardized frameworks for local health jurisdictions to analyze and visualize data in emergencies, are warranted.

Neighborhood walkability and poverty predict excessive gestational weight gain: A cross-sectional study in New York City

OBJECTIVE

This study evaluated associations between neighborhood-level characteristics and gestational weight gain (GWG) in a population-level study of 2015 New York City births.

METHODS

Generalized linear mixed-effects models were used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) for associations between neighborhood-level characteristics (poverty, food environment, walkability) within 1 km of a residential Census block centroid and excessive or inadequate GWG compared with recommended GWG. All models were adjusted for individual-level sociodemographic characteristics.

RESULTS

Among the sample of 106,285 births, 41.8% had excessive GWG, and 26.3% had inadequate GWG. Residence in the highest versus lowest quartile of neighborhood poverty was associated with greater odds of excessive GWG (OR: 1.17, 95% CI: 1.08-1.26). Residence in neighborhoods in the quartile of highest walkability compared with the quartile of lowest walkability was associated with lower odds of excessive GWG (OR: 0.87, 95% CI: 0.81-0.93). Adjustment for prepregnancy BMI attenuated the associations for neighborhood poverty, but not for walkability. Neighborhood variables were not associated with inadequate GWG.

CONCLUSIONS

These analyses indicate that greater neighborhood walkability is associated with lower odds of excessive GWG, potentially from differences in pedestrian activity during pregnancy. This research provides further evidence for using urban design to support healthy weight status during pregnancy.

Exploratory Case Study of Suicide among a Sample of 9/11 Survivors

BACKGROUND

Previous research has found higher than expected suicide mortality among rescue/recovery workers (RRWs) enrolled in the World Trade Center Health Registry (WTCHR). Whether any enrollee suicides are related to the decedents' experiences on 9/11 is unknown. We abstracted medical examiner file data to learn more about 9/11-related circumstances of suicides among WTCHR enrollees.

METHODS

We identified 35 enrollee suicide cases that occurred in New York City using linked vital records data. We reviewed medical examiner files on each case, abstracting demographic and circumstantial data. We also reviewed survey data collected from each case at WTCHR enrollment (2003-2004) and available subsequent surveys to calculate descriptive statistics.

RESULTS

Cases were mostly non-Hispanic White (66%), male (83%), and middle-aged (median 58 years). Nineteen decedents (54%) were RRWs, and 32% of them worked at the WTC site for >90 days compared to 18% of the RRW group overall. In the medical examiner files of two cases, accounts from family mentioned 9/11-related circumstances, unprompted. All deaths occurred during 2004-2018, ranging from one to four cases per year. Leading mechanisms were hanging/suffocation (26%), firearm (23%), and jump from height (23%). Sixty percent of the cases had depression mentioned in the files, but none mentioned posttraumatic stress disorder.

CONCLUSIONS

RRWs may be at particular risk for suicide, as those who worked at the WTC site for long periods appeared to be more likely to die by suicide than other RRWs. Mental health screening and treatment must continue to be prioritized for the 9/11-exposed population. More in-depth investigations of suicides can elucidate the ongoing impacts of 9/11.

Paternal Jail Incarceration and Birth Outcomes: Evidence from New York City, 2010-2016

OBJECTIVES

To examine population-level associations between paternal jail incarceration during pregnancy and infant birth outcomes using objective measures of health and incarceration.

METHODS

We use multivariate logistic regression models and linked records on all births and jail incarcerations in New York City between 2010 and 2016.

RESULTS

0.8% of live births were exposed to paternal incarceration during pregnancy or at the time of birth. After accounting for parental sociodemographic characteristics, maternal health behaviors, and maternal health care access, paternal incarceration during pregnancy remains associated with late preterm birth (OR = 1.34, 95% CI = 1.21, 1.48), low birthweight (OR = 1.39, 95% CI = 1.27, 1.53), small size for gestational age (OR = 1.35, 95% CI = 1.17, 1.57), and NICU admission (OR = 1.14, 95% CI = 1.05, 1.24).

CONCLUSIONS

We found strong positive baseline associations (p < 0.001) between paternal jail incarceration during pregnancy with probabilities of all adverse outcomes examined. These associations did not appear to be driven purely by duration or frequency of paternal incarceration. These associations were partially explained by parental characteristics, maternal health behavior, and health care. These results indicate the need to consider paternal incarceration as a potential stressor and source of trauma for pregnant women and infants.

COVID-19 Outbreak - New York City, February 29-June 1, 2020

New York City (NYC) was an epicenter of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in the United States during spring 2020 (1). During March-May 2020, approximately 203,000 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases were reported to the NYC Department of Health and Mental Hygiene (DOHMH). To obtain more complete data, DOHMH used supplementary information sources and relied on direct data importation and matching of patient identifiers for data on hospitalization status, the occurrence of death, race/ethnicity, and presence of underlying medical conditions. The highest rates of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths were concentrated in communities of color, high-poverty areas, and among persons aged ≥75 years or with underlying conditions. The crude fatality rate was 9.2% overall and 32.1% among hospitalized patients. Using these data to prevent additional infections among NYC residents during subsequent waves of the pandemic, particularly among those at highest risk for hospitalization and death, is critical. Mitigating COVID-19 transmission among vulnerable groups at high risk for hospitalization and death is an urgent priority. Similar to NYC, other jurisdictions might find the use of supplementary information sources valuable in their efforts to prevent COVID-19 infections.

Estimating the infection-fatality risk of SARS-CoV-2 in New York City during the spring 2020 pandemic wave: a model-based analysis

Background

As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to unfold, the infection-fatality risk (ie, risk of death among all infected individuals including those with asymptomatic and mild infections) is crucial for gauging the burden of death due to COVID-19 in the coming months or years. Here, we estimate the infection-fatality risk of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in New York City, NY, USA, the first epidemic centre in the USA, where the infection-fatality risk remains unclear.

Methods

In this model-based analysis, we developed a meta-population network model-inference system to estimate the underlying SARS-CoV-2 infection rate in New York City during the 2020 spring pandemic wave using available case, mortality, and mobility data. Based on these estimates, we further estimated the infection-fatality risk for all ages overall and for five age groups (<25, 25–44, 45–64, 65–74, and ≥75 years) separately, during the period March 1 to June 6, 2020 (ie, before the city began a phased reopening).

Findings

During the period March 1 to June 6, 2020, 205 639 people had a laboratory-confirmed infection with SARS-CoV-2 and 21 447 confirmed and probable COVID-19-related deaths occurred among residents of New York City. We estimated an overall infection-fatality risk of 1·39% (95% credible interval 1·04–1·77) in New York City. Our estimated infection-fatality risk for the two oldest age groups (65–74 and ≥75 years) was much higher than the younger age groups, with a cumulative estimated infection-fatality risk of 0·116% (0·0729–0·148) for those aged 25–44 years and 0·939% (0·729–1·19) for those aged 45–64 years versus 4·87% (3·37–6·89) for those aged 65–74 years and 14·2% (10·2–18·1) for those aged 75 years and older. In particular, weekly infection-fatality risk was estimated to be as high as 6·72% (5·52–8·01) for those aged 65–74 years and 19·1% (14·7–21·9) for those aged 75 years and older.

Interpretation

Our results are based on more complete ascertainment of COVID-19-related deaths in New York City than other places and thus probably reflect the true higher burden of death due to COVID-19 than that previously reported elsewhere. Given the high infection-fatality risk of SARS-CoV-2, governments must account for and closely monitor the infection rate and population health outcomes and enact prompt public health responses accordingly as the COVID-19 pandemic unfolds.

Funding

National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Science Foundation Rapid Response Research Program, and New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene.

Erroneous Reporting of Deaths Attributed to Pneumonia and Influenza at 2 New York City Teaching Hospitals, 2013-2014

OBJECTIVES

Cause-of-death information, reported by frontline clinicians after a patient's death, is an irreplaceable source of public health data. However, systematic bias in cause-of-death reporting can lead to over- or underestimation of deaths attributable to different causes. New York City consistently reports higher rates of deaths attributable to pneumonia and influenza than many other US cities and the country. We investigated systematic erroneous reporting as a possible explanation for this phenomenon.

METHODS

We reviewed all deaths from 2 New York City hospitals during 2013-2014 in which pneumonia or influenza was reported as the underlying cause of death (n = 188), and we examined the association between erroneous reporting and multiple extrinsic factors that may influence cause-of-death reporting (patient demographic characteristics and medical comorbidities, time and hospital location of death, type of medical provider reporting the death, and availability of certain diagnostic information).

RESULTS

Pneumonia was erroneously reported as the underlying cause of death in 163 (86.7%) reports. We identified heart disease and dementia as the more likely underlying cause of death in 21% and 17% of erroneously reported deaths attributable to pneumonia, respectively. We found no significant association between erroneous reporting and the multiple extrinsic factors examined.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results underscore how erroneous reporting of 1 condition can lead to underreporting of other causes of death. Misapplication or misunderstanding of procedures by medical providers, rather than extrinsic factors influencing the reporting process, are key drivers of erroneous cause-of-death reporting.

SARS-CoV-2-Associated Deaths Among Persons Aged <21 Years - United States, February 12-July 31, 2020

Since February 12, 2020, approximately 6.5 million cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection, the cause of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), and 190,000 SARS-CoV-2-associated deaths have been reported in the United States (1,2). Symptoms associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection are milder in children compared with adults (3). Persons aged <21 years constitute 26% of the U.S. population (4), and this report describes characteristics of U.S. persons in that population who died in association with SARS-CoV-2 infection, as reported by public health jurisdictions. Among 121 SARS-CoV-2-associated deaths reported to CDC among persons aged <21 years in the United States during February 12-July 31, 2020, 63% occurred in males, 10% of decedents were aged <1 year, 20% were aged 1-9 years, 70% were aged 10-20 years, 45% were Hispanic persons, 29% were non-Hispanic Black (Black) persons, and 4% were non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native (AI/AN) persons. Among these 121 decedents, 91 (75%) had an underlying medical condition,* 79 (65%) died after admission to a hospital, and 39 (32%) died at home or in the emergency department (ED).^† These data show that nearly three quarters of SARS-CoV-2-associated deaths among infants, children, adolescents, and young adults have occurred in persons aged 10-20 years, with a disproportionate percentage among young adults aged 18-20 years and among Hispanics, Blacks, AI/ANs, and persons with underlying medical conditions. Careful monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 infections, deaths, and other severe outcomes among persons aged <21 years remains particularly important as schools reopen in the United States. Ongoing evaluation of effectiveness of prevention and control strategies will also be important to inform public health guidance for schools and parents and other caregivers.

Structural Racism, Historical Redlining, and Risk of Preterm Birth in New York City, 2013-2017

Objectives. To assess if historical redlining, the US government's 1930s racially discriminatory grading of neighborhoods' mortgage credit-worthiness, implemented via the federally sponsored Home Owners' Loan Corporation (HOLC) color-coded maps, is associated with contemporary risk of preterm birth (< 37 weeks gestation).Methods. We analyzed 2013-2017 birth certificate data for all singleton births in New York City (n = 528 096) linked by maternal residence at time of birth to (1) HOLC grade and (2) current census tract social characteristics.Results. The proportion of preterm births ranged from 5.0% in grade A ("best"-green) to 7.3% in grade D ("hazardous"-red). The odds ratio for HOLC grade D versus A equaled 1.6 and remained significant (1.2; P < .05) in multilevel models adjusted for maternal sociodemographic characteristics and current census tract poverty, but was 1.07 (95% confidence interval = 0.92, 1.20) after adjustment for current census tract racialized economic segregation.Conclusions. Historical redlining may be a structural determinant of present-day risk of preterm birth.Public Health Implications. Policies for fair housing, economic development, and health equity should consider historical redlining's impacts on present-day residential segregation and health outcomes.

Structural Racism and Severe Maternal Morbidity in New York State

Objective:

We examined the association between county-level structural racism indicators and the odds of severe maternal morbidity (SMM) in New York State.

Design:

We merged individual-level hospitalization data from the New York State Department of Health Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System (SPARCS) with county-level data from the American Community Survey and the Vera Institute of Justice from 2011 to 2013 (n = 244 854). Structural racism in each county included in our sample was constructed as the racial inequity (ratio of black to white population) in female educational attainment, female employment, and incarceration.

Results:

Multilevel logistic regression analysis estimated the association between each of these structural racism indicators and SMM, accounting for individual- and hospital-level characteristics and clustering in facilities. In the models adjusted for individual- and hospital-level factors, county-level racial inequity in female educational attainment was associated with small but statistically significant higher odds of SMM (odds ratio [OR] = 1.17, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.47, 1.85). County-level structural racism indicators of female employment inequity and incarceration inequity were not statistically significant. Interaction terms examining potential effect measure modification by race with each structural racism indicator also indicated no statistical difference.

Conclusions:

Studies of maternal disparities should consider multiple dimensions of structural racism as a contributing cause to SMM and as an additional area for potential intervention.

Severe sociopolitical stressors and preterm births in New York City: 1 September 2015 to 31 August 2017

Background

Severe stressors can induce preterm birth (PTB; gestation <37 weeks), with such stressors including social and economic threats, interpersonal violence, hate crimes and severe sociopolitical stressors (ie, arising from political leaders’ threatening rhetoric or from political legislation). We analysed temporal changes in risk of PTB among immigrant, Hispanic and Muslim populations targeted in the US 2016 presidential election and its aftermath.

Methods

Trend analysis of all singleton births in New York City from 1 September 2015 to 31 August 2017 (n=230 105).

Results

Comparing the period before the US presidential nomination (1 September 2015 to 31 July 2016) to the post-inauguration period (1 January 2017 to 31 August 2017), the overall PTB rate increased from 7.0% to 7.3% (relative risk (RR): 1.04; 95% CI 1.00 to 1.07). Among Hispanic women, the highest post-inauguration versus pre-inauguration increase occurred among foreign-born Hispanic women with Mexican or Central American ancestry (RR: 1.15; 95% CI 1.01 to 1.31). The post-inauguration versus pre-inauguration PTB rate also was higher for women from the Middle East/North Africa and from the travel ban countries, although non-significant due to the small number of events.

Conclusion

Severe sociopolitical stressors may contribute to increases in the risk of PTB among targeted populations.

Improving Cancer Outcomes for Vietnamese Speaking Migrants: A Mixed Methods Study

Background: Prompt diagnosis of symptomatic cancer has been shown to improve survival and quality of life. The time from noticing a bodily change and seeking medical help has been termed the 'symptom appraisal interval'. The processes people undertake during symptom appraisal are impacted by numerous factors, including culture. Aim: We aimed to explore culturally specific factors that impact symptom appraisal and help seeking for a cancer diagnosis in Vietnamese-speaking Australians and to develop a culturally relevant community-based symptom awareness campaign. Methods: We used a mixed methods approach to survey and interview people who had not experienced cancer and interviewed people with a recent diagnosis of cancer. We also tested campaign materials in focus groups and interviews with community members. Results: 28 people participated in the interview study and 65 completed surveys. We found poor symptom recognition and a prevailing Taoist or traditional Eastern model of health and illness. There was also a strong emphasis on being healthy for your family and fatalistic beliefs. Home remedies and Eastern medicine were commonly used for cancer symptom management and the people with cancer were shocked at their cancer diagnosis. Conclusion: The study findings were used to tailor a symptom awareness campaign for Vietnamese speaking communities to raise awareness of cancer symptoms and to prompt people to discuss symptoms with family and their general practitioner sooner to facilitate timely diagnosis and better outcomes.

Sensitivity and Positive Predictive Value of Death Certificate Data Among Deaths Caused by Legionnaires' Disease in New York City, 2008-2013

OBJECTIVES

Death certificates are an important source of information for understanding life expectancy and mortality trends; however, misclassification and incompleteness are common. Although deaths caused by Legionnaires' disease might be identified through routine surveillance, it is unclear whether Legionnaires' disease is accurately recorded on death certificates. We evaluated the sensitivity and positive predictive value of death certificates for identifying deaths from confirmed or suspected Legionnaires' disease among adults in New York City.

METHODS

We deterministically matched death certificate data from January 1, 2008, through December 31, 2013, on New York City residents aged ≥18 years to surveillance data on confirmed and suspected cases of Legionnaires' disease from January 1, 2008, through October 31, 2013. We estimated sensitivity and positive predictive value by using surveillance data as the reference standard.

RESULTS

Of 294 755 deaths, 27 (<0.01%) had an underlying cause of death of Legionnaires' disease and 33 (0.01%) had any mention of Legionnaires' disease on the death certificate. Of 1211 confirmed or suspected cases of Legionnaires' disease, 267 (22.0%) matched to a record in the death certificate data set. The sensitivity of death certificates that listed Legionnaires' disease as the underlying cause of death was 17.3% and of death certificates with any mention of Legionnaires' disease was 20.9%. The positive predictive value of death certificates that listed Legionnaires' disease as the underlying cause of death was 70.4% and of death certificates with any mention of Legionnaires' disease was 69.7%.

CONCLUSIONS

Death certificates had limited ability to identify confirmed or suspected deaths with Legionnaires' disease. Provider trainings on the diagnosis of Legionnaires' disease, particularly hospital settings, and proper completion of death certificates might improve the sensitivity of death certificates for people who die of Legionnaires' disease.

Deaths From Pneumonia-New York City, 1999-2015

Background

"Pneumonia and influenza" are the third leading cause of death in New York City. Since 2012, pneumonia and influenza have been the only infectious diseases listed among the 10 leading causes of death in NYC. Most pneumonia and influenza deaths in NYC list pneumonia as the underlying cause of death, not influenza. We therefore analyzed death certificate data for pneumonia in NYC during 1999-2015.

Methods

We calculated annualized pneumonia death rates (overall and by sociodemographic subgroup) and examined the etiologic agent listed.

Results

There were 41 400 pneumonia deaths during the study period, corresponding to an annualized age-adjusted death rate of 29.7 per 100 000 population. Approximately 17.5% of pneumonia deaths specified an etiologic agent. Age-adjusted pneumonia death rate declined over the study period and across each borough. Males had an annualized age-adjusted pneumonia death rate 1.5 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.5-1.5) times that of females. Non-Hispanic blacks had an annualized age-adjusted pneumonia death rate 1.2 (95% CI, 1.2-1.2) times that of non-Hispanic whites. The annualized pneumonia death rate increased with age group above 5-24 years and neighborhood-level poverty. Staten Island had an annualized age-adjusted pneumonia death rate 1.3 (95% CI, 1.2-1.3) times that of Manhattan. In the multivariable analysis, pneumonia deaths were more likely to occur among males, non-Hispanic blacks, persons aged ≥65 years, residents of neighborhoods with higher poverty levels, and in Staten Island.

Conclusions

While the accuracy of death certificates is unknown, investigation is needed to understand why certain populations are disproportionately recorded as dying from pneumonia in NYC.

Examination of Cause-of-Death Data Quality Among New York City Deaths Due to Cancer, Pneumonia, or Diabetes From 2010 to 2014

The cause-of-death (COD) statement on the standard US death certificate is a valuable tool for public health practice, but its utility is impaired by reporting inaccuracies. To assess the quality of CODs reported in New York City, we developed and applied a quality measure to 3 leading CODs: cancer, pneumonia, and diabetes. The COD quality measure characterized 5 common issues with COD completion: nonspecific conditions as the underlying COD (UCOD); UCOD discrepancies; the presence of only 1 informative cause on the entire certificate; competing causes listed together on 1 line; and clinically improbable sequences. COD statements with more than 1 quality issue were defined as statements of "limited" quality. Of 82,116 deaths with cancer, diabetes, or pneumonia assigned as the UCOD in New York City from 2010 to 2014, 66.8% of pneumonia certificates were classified as "limited" quality as compared with 45.6% of cancer certificates and 32.3% of diabetes certificates. Forty percent of cancer certificates listed only 1 informative condition on the death certificate. Almost half of pneumonia certificates (45.9%) contained only enough information to assign International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, code J18.9 ("unspecified pneumonia") as the UCOD, whereas most diabetes certificates contained UCOD discrepancies (25.2%). These limitations affect the quality of mortality data but may be reduced through quality improvement efforts.

Impact of residential displacement on healthcare access and mental health among original residents of gentrifying neighborhoods in New York City

OBJECTIVES

As gentrification continues in New York City as well as other urban areas, residents of lower socioeconomic status maybe at higher risk for residential displacement. Yet, there have been few quantitative assessments of the health impacts of displacement. The objective of this paper is to assess the association between displacement and healthcare access and mental health among the original residents of gentrifying neighborhoods in New York City.

METHODS

We used 2 data sources: 1) 2005-2014 American Community Surveys to identify gentrifying neighborhoods in New York City, and 2) 2006-2014 Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System. Our cohort included 12,882 residents of gentrifying neighborhoods in 2006 who had records of emergency department visits or hospitalization at least once every 2 years in 2006-2014. Rates of emergency department visits and hospitalizations post-baseline were compared between residents who were displaced and those who remained.

RESULTS

During 2006-2014, 23% were displaced. Compared with those who remained, displaced residents were more likely to make emergency department visits and experience hospitalizations, mainly due to mental health (Rate Ratio = 1.8, 95% confidence interval = 1.5, 2.2), after controlling for baseline demographics, health status, healthcare utilization, residential movement, and the neighborhood of residence in 2006.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings suggest negative impacts of displacement on healthcare access and mental health, particularly among adults living in urban areas and with a history of frequent emergency department visits or hospitalizations.

Spatial social polarization and birth outcomes: preterm birth and infant mortality - New York City, 2010-14

AIMS

This study assessed the relationship between spatial social polarization measured by the index of the concentration of the extremes (ICE) and preterm birth (PTB) and infant mortality (IM) in New York City. A secondary aim was to examine the ICE measure in comparison to neighborhood poverty.

METHODS

The sample included singleton births to adult women in New York City, 2010-2014 ( n=532,806). Three ICE measures were employed at the census tract level: ICE - Income (persons in households in the bottom vs top 20th percentile of US annual household income), ICE -Race/Ethnicity (black non-Hispanic vs white non-Hispanic populations), and ICE - Income + Race/Ethnicity combined. Preterm birth was defined as birth before 37 weeks' gestation. Infant mortality was defined as a death before one year of age. A two-level generalized linear model with random intercept was utilized adjusting for individual-level covariates.

RESULTS

Preterm birth prevalence was 7.1% and infant mortality rate was 3.4 per 1000 live births. Women who lived in areas with the least privilege were more likely to have a preterm birth or infant mortality as compared to women living in areas with the most privilege. After adjusting for covariates, this association remained for preterm birth (ICE - Income: Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) 1.16 (1.10-1.21); ICE - Race/Ethnicity: AOR 1.41 (1.34-1.49); ICE - Income + Race/Ethnicity: AOR 1.36 (1.29-1.43)) and IM (ICE - Race/Ethnicity (AOR 1.80 (1.43-2.28) and ICE - Income + Race/Ethnicity (AOR 1.54 (1.23-1.94)). High neighborhood poverty was associated with PTB only (AOR 1.09 (1.04-1.14).

CONCLUSIONS

These results provide preliminary evidence for the use of the ICE measure in examining structural barriers to healthy birth outcomes.

An analysis of weight loss articles and advertisements in mainstream women's health and fitness magazines

Background: Magazines are a commonly used source for health and fitness information. Little is known about the nature and extent of weight loss strategies and products presented in mainstream women’s health and fitness magazines.

Methods: This preliminary cross-sectional study evaluated the prevalence of articles and advertisements featuring weight loss content and products in mainstream US-based health and fitness magazines, as well as assessed weight loss themes presented. Thirty-one US health and fitness-focused magazine issues were coded. Prevalence of, product type, and themes related to weight loss in articles and advertisements were assessed.

Results: Among the 31 issues of the five US-based women’s magazines examined, we identified 39 articles (4.8% [95% CI = 3.3% to 5.5%] of 819 articles) related to weight loss with 14 identified weight loss topics. The most prevalent article topics covered were exercising/workouts (32.0% [95% CI = 28.8% to 33.6%]) followed by dieting (18.6% [95% CI = 15.9% to 19.9%]).The most common product advertised was weight loss pills (46.0% [95% CI = 42.6% to 47.7%]). Fat burners were also frequently advertised (14.9% [95% CI = 12.5% to 16.1%]) followed by hunger reduction strategies (10.3% [95% CI = 8.2% to 11.3%]) and fat blockers (6.9% [95% CI= 5.2% to 7.8%]).

Conclusion: Articles presented information about exercise and dieting whereas advertisements supported potentially harmful health beliefs and behaviors. As a well-utilized American media format, health and fitness-focused magazines have an opportunity to communicate frequent,accurate messaging about healthy weight reduction and limit advertisements that may include misleading claims.

Improved upper limits on the stochastic gravitational-wave background from 2009-2010 LIGO and Virgo data

Gravitational waves from a variety of sources are predicted to superpose to create a stochastic background. This background is expected to contain unique information from throughout the history of the Universe that is unavailable through standard electromagnetic observations, making its study of fundamental importance to understanding the evolution of the Universe. We carry out a search for the stochastic background with the latest data from the LIGO and Virgo detectors. Consistent with predictions from most stochastic gravitational-wave background models, the data display no evidence of a stochastic gravitational-wave signal. Assuming a gravitational-wave spectrum of Ω_{GW}(f)=Ω_{α}(f/f_{ref})^{α}, we place 95% confidence level upper limits on the energy density of the background in each of four frequency bands spanning 41.5-1726 Hz. In the frequency band of 41.5-169.25 Hz for a spectral index of α=0, we constrain the energy density of the stochastic background to be Ω_{GW}(f)<5.6×10^{-6}. For the 600-1000 Hz band, Ω_{GW}(f)<0.14(f/900  Hz)^{3}, a factor of 2.5 lower than the best previously reported upper limits. We find Ω_{GW}(f)<1.8×10^{-4} using a spectral index of zero for 170-600 Hz and Ω_{GW}(f)<1.0(f/1300  Hz)^{3} for 1000-1726 Hz, bands in which no previous direct limits have been placed. The limits in these four bands are the lowest direct measurements to date on the stochastic background. We discuss the implications of these results in light of the recent claim by the BICEP2 experiment of the possible evidence for inflationary gravitational waves.

Provider type and preterm birth in New York City births, 2009-2010

This cross- sectional analysis assessed the role of provider type in preterm birth (PTB) using birth certificates (2009– 2010) from the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene for singleton births to adult, low- risk women (n=73,887). Provider was categorized as a midwife led model or physician led model; PTB as less than 37 weeks gestation. Thirteen percent (13%) received care from a midwife led model. Preterm birth was significantly lower for women who received care from a midwife led model than for those with a physician led model (2.8% vs. 4.6%, p<.0001). The prevalence of PTB was significantly lower among women who used a midwife led model than among women who used a physician led model. After adjustment, the use of a midwife led model significantly reduced the likelihood of PTB (AOR: 0.56, 95% CI: 0.49, 0.63). These results have implications for clinical care and health care costs.

Maternal education and excessive gestational weight gain in New York city, 1999-2001: the effect of race/ethnicity and neighborhood socioeconomic status

To examine the association between maternal education and excessive gestational weight gain (EGWG) and whether this association differs by maternal race/ethnicity and neighborhood socio-economic status (SES). A sample of 56,911 New York City births between 1999 and 2001 was used. Self-reported EGWG was defined as gaining >40 pounds. Maternal education and race/ethnicity were obtained from birth record data. Neighborhood SES was determined from 2000 US Census data. Women with a high school [prevalence ratio (PR) = 1.21; 95 % CI 1.10-1.32] and some college (PR = 1.33; 95 % CI 1.21-1.47) education were more likely to gain excessive weight during pregnancy than their counterparts with less than a high school education. Having a college or more education was associated with a decreased EGWG for non-Hispanic white women (PR = 0.81; 95 % CI 0.67-0.96) but an increased EGWG for Hispanic women (PR = 1.25; 95 % CI 1.12-1.44). EGWG increased for women with a college or more education in medium and low SES neighborhoods (1.26; 95 % CI 1.04-1.53 and 1.20; 95 % CI 1.10-1.30, respectively); whereas a college or more education was not significant in the high SES neighborhoods. Our findings suggest that maternal education is associated with EGWG. However, this association depends on race/ethnicity and SES of the neighborhood of residence.

Search for gravitational waves associated with γ-ray bursts detected by the interplanetary network

We present the results of a search for gravitational waves associated with 223 γ-ray bursts (GRBs) detected by the InterPlanetary Network (IPN) in 2005-2010 during LIGO's fifth and sixth science runs and Virgo's first, second, and third science runs. The IPN satellites provide accurate times of the bursts and sky localizations that vary significantly from degree scale to hundreds of square degrees. We search for both a well-modeled binary coalescence signal, the favored progenitor model for short GRBs, and for generic, unmodeled gravitational wave bursts. Both searches use the event time and sky localization to improve the gravitational wave search sensitivity as compared to corresponding all-time, all-sky searches. We find no evidence of a gravitational wave signal associated with any of the IPN GRBs in the sample, nor do we find evidence for a population of weak gravitational wave signals associated with the GRBs. For all IPN-detected GRBs, for which a sufficient duration of quality gravitational wave data are available, we place lower bounds on the distance to the source in accordance with an optimistic assumption of gravitational wave emission energy of 10(-2)M⊙c(2) at 150 Hz, and find a median of 13 Mpc. For the 27 short-hard GRBs we place 90% confidence exclusion distances to two source models: a binary neutron star coalescence, with a median distance of 12 Mpc, or the coalescence of a neutron star and black hole, with a median distance of 22 Mpc. Finally, we combine this search with previously published results to provide a population statement for GRB searches in first-generation LIGO and Virgo gravitational wave detectors and a resulting examination of prospects for the advanced gravitational wave detectors.