Neurosensory alterations and Interleukins Cascade in SARS-CoV-2 Infection - Results from a Retrospective Cohort of COVID-19 Inpatients

OBJECTIVE AND DESIGN

The aim of this study was to relate IL-6 and IL-1β serum levels with the severity of olfactory disorders and with the type of unperceived odors.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

82 inpatients (45 men aged 62.3 ±14.2 and 37 women aged 57.1± 12.8) with only smell dysfunctions were divided into two groups. The evaluation of the smell disorder was carried out with a questionnaire to define which sensitivity is most compromised in COVID-19 patients. Cytokine levels were measured with chemiluminescence and ELISA assay. Statistical analyses were performed with the Wilcoxon Rank test, Welch's Welch's T-test, and Mann-Whitney test (p <0.05).

RESULTS

Statistically significant differences in IL-6 and IL-1 β levels were found in moderate disease patients when there was an impairment of trigeminal sensitivity (p <0.05) and trigeminal and olfactory sensitivity.

CONCLUSIONS

The results obtained showed that in COVID-19 patients the impairment of trigeminal sensitivity in association with olfactory sensitivity was more prevalent in moderate than in mild forms.

A dynamic causal modeling of the second outbreak of COVID-19 in Italy

While the vaccination campaign against COVID-19 is having its positive impact, we retrospectively analyze the causal impact of some decisions made by the Italian government on the second outbreak of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Italy, when no vaccine was available. First, we analyze the causal impact of reopenings after the first lockdown in 2020. In addition, we also analyze the impact of reopening schools in September 2020. Our results provide an unprecedented opportunity to evaluate the causal relationship between the relaxation of restrictions and the transmission in the community of a highly contagious respiratory virus that causes severe illness in the absence of prophylactic vaccination programs. We present a purely data-analytic approach based on a Bayesian methodology and discuss possible interpretations of the results obtained and implications for policy makers.

Cost-effectiveness of grass pollen allergen immunotherapy in adults

BACKGROUND

Major scientific societies, such as the EAACI or the AAAAI, do not express any suggestion on which form of allergen immunotherapy (AIT) is to be preferred (subcutaneous immunotherapy, SCIT, vs sublingual immunotherapy, SLIT). This choice could depend on their relative pharmacoeconomic value.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the cost-effectiveness of AIT for grass pollen, administered as SCIT or SLIT.

METHODS

We created a Markovian Model, to evaluate, in a hypothetical cohort of adult patients suffering from moderate-to-severe rhino-conjunctivitis with or without allergic asthma, the cost-effectiveness of SLIT (tablets, Grazax^® and Oralair^® ) or SCIT (various currently available products, plus indirect nonmedical costs, such as travel and productivity costs) in addition to pharmacological therapy, assuming a 9-year horizon to capture AIT long-term effects. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated assuming pharmacological therapy as the reference comparator.

RESULTS

In the base case, SCIT was slightly more expensive, but more effective than SLIT, being the most cost-effective option (ICER for SCIT, €11 418; ICER for SLIT, €15 212). ICERs greater than €120 000 for both SCIT and SLIT were demonstrated in a scenario assuming that low treatment persistence rates, which are common in real-life, lead to absence of long-term AIT clinical benefit. Considering indirect nonmedical costs SLIT resulted more cost-effective than SCIT (ICER for SCIT, €17 318; ICER for SLIT, €15 212).

CONCLUSION

In daily practice, AIT for grass pollens may be a cost-effective option only in patients with low discontinuation rates. SCIT, which is less affected by this limitation than SLIT, seems the most cost-effective AIT form.

A non-stationary Markov model for economic evaluation of grass pollen allergoid immunotherapy

Introduction

Allergic rhino-conjunctivitis (ARC) is an IgE-mediated disease that occurs after exposure to indoor or outdoor allergens, or to non-specific triggers. Effective treatment options for seasonal ARC are available, but the economic aspects and burden of these therapies are not of secondary importance, also considered that the prevalence of ARC has been estimated at 23% in Europe. For these reasons, we propose a novel flexible cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) model, intended to provide healthcare professionals and policymakers with useful information aimed at cost-effective interventions for grass-pollen induced allergic rhino-conjunctivitis (ARC).

Methods

Treatments compared are: 1. no AIT, first-line symptomatic drug-therapy with no allergoid immunotherapy (AIT). 2. SCIT, subcutaneous immunotherapy. 3. SLIT, sublingual immunotherapy. The proposed model is a non-stationary Markovian model, that is flexible enough to reflect those treatment-related problems often encountered in real-life and clinical practice, but that cannot be adequately represented in randomized clinical trials (RCTs). At the same time, we described in detail all the structural elements of the model as well as its input parameters, in order to minimize any issue of transparency and facilitate the reproducibility and circulation of the results among researchers.

Results

Using the no AIT strategy as a comparator, and the Incremental Cost Effectiveness Ratio (ICER) as a statistic to summarize the cost-effectiveness of a health care intervention, we could conclude that:

Conclusions

Even though there is a considerable evidence that SCIT outperforms SLIT, we could not state that both SCIT and SLIT (or only one of these two) can be considered cost-effective for ARC, as a reliable threshold value for cost-effectiveness set by national regulatory agencies for pharmaceutical products is missing. Moreover, the impact of model input parameters uncertainty on the reliability of our conclusions needs to be investigated further.

Soy Metabolism by Gut Microbiota from Patients with Precancerous Intestinal Lesions

BACKGROUND

Colorectal cancer (CRC) requires the presence of a variety of factors predisposing a tumorigenic milieu. Excluding familial clustering and hereditary CRC syndromes, the development of sporadic CRC from precancerous lesions is influenced by tissue inflammation, modulation of intestinal immunity, hormones, dietary habits and gut microbiota composition. As concerning the last two aspects, the intestinal presence of equol, the most biologically active metabolite of the soy isoflavone daidzein and the presence of a genetic determinant of gut microbiota able to metabolize daidzein, seem to lower the CRC risk. It has been hypothesized that the anaerobic microorganisms of the Bacteroides genus play a role in equol production.

AIM

To evaluate the presence of (i) anaerobic gut microbiota and (ii) the urinary levels of soy isoflavones (daidzein, genistein and equol) in patients with and without precancerous lesions, challenged with a daidzein-rich soy extract.

METHODS

Consecutive subjects undergoing colonoscopy participated to the study. Feces were collected from all patients one week before colonoscopy for gut microbiota studies. After the endoscopy examination and the histological evaluation, 40 subjects, 20 with sporadic colorectal adenomas (SCA/P group) and 20 without proliferative lesions (control group) were enrolled for the study. Urine levels of soy isoflavones daidzein, genistein and their metabolite equol, were determined by high performance liquid chromatographic (HPLC) analysis and gut microbiota analysis was performed by Matrix Assisted Laser Desorption Ionization Time of Flight Mass Spectrometry (MALDI-TOF MS) procedure.

RESULTS

Seventeen different bacterial species were identified in the fecal samples of the forty subjects participating to the study. Ten bacterial species resulted anaerobic Gram-negative bacteria, all belonging to the Bacteroides genus. A significant difference of bacteria species was evidenced in the fecal samples of the two groups of subjects. Particularly important was the evidence of Parabacteroides distasonis, Clostridium clostridioforme and Pediococcus pentasaceus only in control fecal samples, such as the presence of Bacteroides fragilis and Prevotella melaningenica only in SCA/P fecal samples. Concerning the soy isoflavones levels, no statistically significant differences were revealed in the genistein and daidzein urinary levels between the two groups of subjects. On the contrary, urinary equol levels were undetectable in ten SCA/P subjects and in two controls; moreover, when present, the levels of urinary equol were significantly lower in SCA/P subjects compared to controls (0.24 ± 0.27 mg/24 hrs vs. 21.25 ± 4.3 mg/24 hrs, respectively, p = 1.12 × 10^-6).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that the presence of anaerobic Bacteroides in the colon, and the production of equol from soy, could determine a milieu able to contrast the development of colonic mucosa proliferative lesions.

EPSILoN: A Prognostic Score Using Clinical and Blood Biomarkers in Advanced Non-Small-cell Lung Cancer Treated With Immunotherapy

BACKGROUND

Second-line immunotherapy (IO) has shown an overall survival benefit. However, only 18% to 20% of patients with advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (aNSCLC) will respond, with a median progression-free survival (PFS) of 2 to 4 months. Thus, biomarkers to select those patients most likely to benefit from IO are greatly needed.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We conducted a retrospective analysis of 154 patients with aNSCLC who had received anti-programmed cell death 1 therapy as second line or further treatment. We assessed the absolute neutrophil, lymphocyte, monocyte, and eosinophil counts at baseline (T0) and the second (T1) and third (T2) cycles. The neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR), derived-NLR (dNLR), lymphocyte/monocyte ratio (LMR), and their percentage of change at T1 and T2 compared with T0 were evaluated. The clinical characteristics and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) level were also considered. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed. Significant biomarkers for PFS on multivariate analysis were combined in a prognostic score.

RESULTS

For overall survival, the negative prognostic biomarkers were Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status (PS) 2, NLR at T0, and dNLR at T1; the LMR at T0, T1, and T2 was identified as a positive prognostic biomarker. For PFS, the negative prognostic biomarkers were ECOG PS 2, liver metastases, NLR at T0, dNLR at T1 and T2, and ≥ 30% increase of NLR from T0 to T1; the positive prognostic biomarkers were heavy smoking, LDH, and LMR at T2. The ≥ 30% increase of LMR from T0 to T1 and T0 to T2 correlated with the overall response rate. A prognostic score (EPSILoN score; smoking, ECOG PS, liver metastases, LDH, NLR) identified 3 prognostic groups (median PFS, 10.2, 4.9, and 1.7 months, respectively; P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

The EPSILoN score combines 5 baseline clinical and blood biomarkers and can help to identify patients with aNSCLC who will most likely benefit from second-line IO. Further studies are warranted.

The immunoglobulin γ marker 17 allotype and KIR/HLA genes prevent the development of chronic hepatitis B in humans

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection causes a self-limiting disease in most individuals. However, < 10% of infected subjects develop a chronic disease. Genetic host variability of polymorphic genes at the interface of innate and acquired immunity, such as killer immunoglobulin-like receptors (KIR), their human leucocyte antigen (HLA) and IgG allotypes (GM), could explain this different clinical picture. We previously showed a protective role of the KIR2DL3 gene for the development of chronic hepatitis B (CHB), and a detrimental role of the KIR ligand groups, HLA-A-Bw4 and HLA-C2. We have expanded the previous analysis genotyping patients for GM23 and GM3/17 allotypes. The comparison of the patients with CHB with those who resolved HBV infection showed that the presence of GM17 allele virtually eliminated the risk of developing CHB (OR, 0·03; 95% CI, 0·004-0·16; P < 0·0001). In addition, the combination of GM17, KIR2DL3, HLA-A-Bw4 and HLA-C2 was highly sensitive to predict the outcome of HBV infection.

Association between γ marker, human leucocyte antigens and killer immunoglobulin-like receptors and the natural course of human cytomegalovirus infection: a pilot study performed in a Sicilian population

Natural killer (NK) cells provide a major defence against human cytomegalovirus (HCMV) infection through the interaction of their surface receptors, including the activating and inhibitory killer immunoglobulin-like receptors (KIRs), and human leucocyte antigen (HLA) class I molecules. Also γ marker (GM) allotypes, able to influence the NK antibody-dependent cell-mediated cytotoxicity, appear to be involved in the immunological control of virus infections, including HCMV. In some cases, their contribution requires epistatic interaction with other genes of the immune system, such as HLA. In the present report, with the aim of gaining insight into the immune mechanisms controlling HCMV, we have studied the possible associations among humoral and NK responses, and HCMV infections. In a previous study we assessed whether the KIR and HLA repertoire might influence the risk of developing symptomatic (n = 60) or asymptomatic (n = 60) disease after primary HCMV infection in the immunocompetent host. In the present study, the immunocompetent patients with primary symptomatic HCMV infection were genotyped for GM3/17 and GM23 allotypes, along with the 60 participants with a previous asymptomatic infection as controls. Notwithstanding the presence of missing data record, advanced missing data recovery techniques were able to show that individuals carrying the GM23 allotypes, both homozygous and heterozygous, GM17/17, HLA-C2 and Bw4^T KIR-ligand groups are associated with the risk of developing symptomatic infection. Our findings on the role of both cellular and humoral immunity in the control of HCMV infection should be of value in guiding efforts to reduce HCMV-associated health complications in the elderly, including immunosenescence, and in transplantation.

KIR2DL3 and the KIR ligand groups HLA-A-Bw4 and HLA-C2 predict the outcome of hepatitis B virus infection

Killer immunoglobulin-like receptors (KIRs) regulate the activation of natural killer cells through their interaction with human leucocyte antigens (HLA). KIR and HLA loci are highly polymorphic, and certain HLA-KIR combinations have been found to protect against viral infections. In this study, we analysed whether the KIR/HLA repertoire may influence the course of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. Fifty-seven subjects with chronic hepatitis B (CHB), 44 subjects with resolved HBV infection and 60 healthy uninfected controls (HC) were genotyped for KIR and their HLA ligands. The frequency of the HLA-A-Bw4 ligand group was higher in CHB (58%) than subjects with resolved infection (23%) (crude OR, 4.67; P<.001) and HC (10%) (crude OR, 12.38; P<.001). Similar results were obtained for the HLA-C2 ligand group, more frequent in CHB (84%), than subjects with resolved infection (70%) (crude OR, 2.24; P<.10) and HC (60%) (crude OR, 3.56; P<.01). Conversely, the frequency of KIR2DL3 was lower in CHB (81%) than in subjects with resolved infection (98%) (crude OR, 0.10; P<.05). These results suggest a detrimental role of HLA-A-Bw4 and HLA-C2 groups, which are associated with the development of CHB, and a protective role of KIR2DL3. A stepwise variable selection procedure, based on multiple logistic regression analysis, identified these three predictive variables as the most relevant, featuring high specificity (90.9%) and positive predictive value (87.5%) for the development of CHB. Our results suggest that a combination of KIR/HLA gene/alleles is able to predict the outcome of HBV infection.

Relationships between mild PM10 and ozone urban air levels and spontaneous abortion: clues for primary prevention

The effects of environmental pollution on spontaneous abortion (SAB) are still unclear. Records of SAB were collected from five cities (514,996 residents) and correlated with PM10, NO(2) and ozone levels. Median pollutant concentrations were below legal limits. Monthly SABs positively correlated with PM10 and ozone levels but not with NO(2) levels. The mean monthly SAB rate increase was estimated equal to 19.7 and 33.6 % per 10 μg/m(3) increase in PM10 or ozone concentration, respectively. Higher values of PM10 and SABs were evident in cities with- than in those without pollutant industries, with a number of SABs twofolds higher in the former group. In conclusion, SAB occurrence is affected by PM10 (particularly if industrial areas are present) and ozone concentrations, also at levels below the legal limits. Thus, SAB might be considered, at least in part, a preventable condition.

Geographical clustering of lung cancer in the province of Lecce, Italy: 1992-2001

Background

The triennial mortality rates for lung cancer in the two decades 1981–2001 in the province of Lecce, Italy, are significantly higher than those for the entire region of Apulia (to which the Province of Lecce belongs) and the national reference rates. Moreover, analyzing the rates in the three-year periods 1993–95, 1996–98 and 1999–01, there is a dramatic increase in mortality for both males and females, which still remains essentially unexplained: to understand the extent of this phenomenon, it is worth noting that the standardized mortality rate for males in 1999–01 is equal to 13.92 per 10000 person-years, compared to a value of 6.96 for Italy in the 2000–2002 period.

These data have generated a considerable concern in the press and public opinion, which with little scientific reasoning have sometimes identified suspected culprits of the risk excess (for example, the emission caused by a number of large industrial sites located in the provinces of Brindisi and Taranto, bordering the Province of Lecce). The objective of this paper is to study on a scientifically sound basis the spatial distribution of risk for lung cancer mortality in the province of Lecce. Our goal is to demonstrate that most of the previous explanations are not supported by data: to this end, we will follow a hybrid approach that combines both frequentist and Bayesian disease mapping methods. Furthermore, we define a new sequential algorithm based on a modified version of the Besag-York-Mollié (BYM) model, suitably modified to detect geographical clusters of disease.

Results

Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) for lung cancer in the province of Lecce: For males, the relative risk (measured by means of SMR, i.e. the ratio between observed and expected cases in each area under internal standardization) was judged to be significantly greater than 1 in many municipal areas, the significance being evaluated under the null hypothesis of neutral risk on the ground of area-specific p-values (denoted by ρ_i); in addition, it was seen that high risk areas were not randomly distributed within the province, but showed a sharp clustering. The most perceptible cluster involved a collection of municipalities around the Maglie area (Istat code: 75039), while the association among the municipalities of Otranto, Poggiardo and Santa Cesarea Terme (Istat codes: 75057, 75061, 75072) was more ambiguous. For females, it was noteworthy the significant risk excess in the city of Lecce (Istat code: 75035), where an SMR of 1.83 and ρ_i < 0.01 have been registered. BYM model for the province of Lecce: For males, Bayes estimates of relative risks varied around an overall mean of 1.04 with standard deviation of 0.1, with a minimum of 0.77 and a maximum of 1.25. The posterior relative risks for females, although smoothed, showed more variation than for males, ranging form 0.74 to 1.65, around a mean of 0.90 with standard deviation 0.12. For males, 95% posterior credible intervals of relative risks included unity in every area, whereas significantly elevated risk of mortality was confirmed in the Lecce area for females (95% posterior CI: 1.33 – 2.00). BYM model for the whole Apulia: For males, internally standardized maps showed several high risk areas bordering the province of Lecce, belonging to the province of Brindisi, and the presence of a large high risk region, including the southern part of the province of Brindisi and the eastern and southern part of the Salento peninsula, in which an increasing trend in the north-south direction was found.

Ecological correlation study with deprivation (Cadum Index): For males, posterior mean of the ecological regression coefficient β resulted to be 0.04 with 95% posterior credible interval equal to (-0.01, 0.08); similarly, β was estimated as equal to -0.03 for females (95% posterior credible interval: -0.16, 0.10). Moreover, there was some indication of nonlinearly increasing relative risk with increasing deprivation for higher deprivation levels. For females, it was difficult to postulate the existence of any association between risk and deprivation.

Cluster detection: cluster detection based on a modified BYM model identified two large unexplained increased risk clusters in the central-eastern and southern part of the peninsula. Other secondary clusters, which raise several complex interpretation issues, are present.

Conclusion

Our results reduce the alleged role of the industrial facilities located around the province of Taranto: in particular, air pollution produced around the city of Taranto (which lies to the west of the province of Lecce) has been often identified as the main culprit of the mortality excess, a conclusion that was further supported by a recent study on the direction of prevailing winds on Salento. This hypothesis is contradicted by the finding that those municipalities that directly border on the province of Taranto (belonging to the so-called "Jonico-Salentina" band) are those that present low mortality rates (at least for males). In the same way, the responsibilities of energy production plants located in the province of Brindisi (Brindisi province lies to the north) appear to be of little relevance. For females, given the situation observed in the city of Lecce, and given the substantial increase in mortality observed in younger age classes, further investigation is required into the role played by changes in lifestyle, including greater net propensity to smoke that women have shown since the 80s onwards (a phenomenon which could be amplified in a city traditionally cultured and modern as Lecce, as the tobacco habit is a largely cultural phenomenon). For males, the presence of high levels of deprivation throughout the eastern and southern Salento is likely to play an important role: those with lower socio-economic status smoke more, and gender differences may be explained on the basis of the fact that in less developed areas women have less habit to tobacco smoking and alcohol drinking (and other harmful lifestyles), which are seen as purely masculine behaviour: research into the role of material deprivation and individual lifestyle differences between genders should be further developed.

[Statistical analysis of the incidence of some cancers in the province of Taranto 1999-2001]

OBJECTIVE

to estimate the spatial distribution of risk, in order to assess its correlation to environmental pollution exposure around the large production facilities located in the Taranto area, and to identify high risk areas not previously reported.

SETTING

Italy, Taranto province (581,508 inhabitants).

DESIGN

incidence data in 29 municipalities of the Taranto province were extracted from the Jonico Salentino Cancer Registry (RTJS) for the following cancer sites: lung (ICDX C33-C34); pleura, pleuric mesothelioma (ICDX C45.0); bladder, malignancies only (ICDX C67); brain (ICDX C70-72); non-Hodgkin lymphoma (ICDX C82-85, C96); leukaemia (ICDX C91-5). Age standardized incidence rates for the whole province were computed. High-level risk areas were classified using a Poisson model, computing area-specific p-values associated to the null hypothesis of no increased risk (i.e. relative risk equal to 1). A hierarchical spatial Bayesian model was estimated to strengthen results: specifically two additional variance components, accounting for relative risk spatial autocorrelation and excess heterogeneity respectively, were considered in the model specification. Bayesian mapping of disease incidence allows for the drawing of regularized (smoothed) maps. To adjust for the effect of socio-economic deprivation, a five-variable index was introduced into the model as an ecological covariate.

RESULTS

an increased risk of lung, pleura and bladder cancer was observed among male residents in the city of Taranto (respectively: SIR 1.24, p-value < 0.01; SIR: 2.21, p-value < 0.01; SIR 1.28, p-value < 0.01). For non-Hodgkin lymphoma, a significant value was observed in the city of Taranto for males (SIR 1.46, p-value < 0.01), as well as in the neighbouring area of Pulsano for females (SIR 3.88, p-value < 0.01). An unexpected increased risk of brain cancer was found in both sexe risk (especially among males) of lung, pleura and bladder cancer is likely related to the chemical pollutants and asbestos, due to the presence of many industries and shipyards in the city of Taranto.

[Assessment of risk of mesothelioma: the case of an asbestos-cement production plant in the city of Bari]

OBJECTIVE

In this paper, by means of explorative methods based on geographical analysis, the relationship between the presence of an asbestos-cement factory in the urban area of Bari and malignant mesothelioma cases, occurring between 1980 and 2001 among residents, is analysed.

METHODS

The data source of the 64 cases studied is the national register of mesotheliomas (Renam), the Apulia regional operating centre (Cor-Puglia). Data are analysed by the use of the S + SpatialStats software.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Both individual data analysis and explorative geographic analysis point out an increased risk of disease among people living near the asbestos-cement factory: within an area centred on the location of plants and having a radius of about 1 Km, the estimated risk is 2.38 times above the normal level. Further analytical studies are required.