Estimating the Global Prevalence of Mass Public Shootings

Previous studies have yielded widely divergent conclusions about the percentage of all mass public shootings globally that take place in the US, ranging from a low of 3% to a high of 36%. Because of documented underreporting of lower-severity attacks involving fewer than 10 victim fatalities in US cases in these studies, it is reasonable to assume that this underreporting issue also applies to their measurement of mass public shootings outside the US. To estimate the total number of mass public shootings worldwide, we use multiple assumptions and modeling approaches, including a hierarchical Bayesian model. Our estimates show the US accounted for anywhere between 16% and 26% of the world's mass public shootings during the 1976 to 2012 period. These estimates suggest the US share of the total is between four and six times higher than its 4% share of the world's population.

Integrating Individual Risk and Social Exposure to Violence: A Multilevel Victimization Perspective

We test two major hypotheses in this article: (a) macrolevels of school disorganization and individual levels of low self-control will be directly, and positively, linked to victimization and (bi) low self-control will have the largest impact on exposure to victimization (ETV) when it interacts with negative environments consistent with a social enhancement perspective, or (bii) low self-control will have a weaker impact on ETV when it interacts with negative environments consistent with saturation or social push models. The data for the current study were collected as part of the second International Self-Report Delinquency Study (ISRD-II). A total of 49,685 individuals from 30 countries are nested within 1,427 schools. We use multilevel generalized linear regression models with violent victimization (robbery and assault) regressed on demographic, family, school, and neighborhood variables. Multiplicative interaction terms are included in separate models to examine key moderation effects consistent with expectations drawn from the victimization literature. Analyses reveal that low self-control and perceptions of school disorganization are both associated with an increase in the odds of experiencing victimization. Interactions between low self-control and school disorganization are also found to be consistent with saturation/social push models. Our regulation approach offers a foundation for theorizing about ETV and provides a testable model for future research. However, elements of the regulation model are in need of further refinement and testing before the perspective can be moved toward a broader theory of victimization.

Changing self-control: Promising efforts and a way forward

Researchers have long known that self-control, or impulse control, is important for a variety of life outcomes, including health, education, and behavior. In criminology, the most popular perspective on self-control argues that it is a multidimensional trait that is relatively stable after about age 8. Some work, however, has shown that in fact, self-control may not be as stable as originally thought. This article examines the evidence on interventions seeking to enhance self-control and subsequently to reduce delinquent or criminal behavior. The evidence is growing but still in need of development. Implications for future research and practice are discussed in the conclusion.

The relation between state gun laws and the incidence and severity of mass public shootings in the United States, 1976-2018

OBJECTIVE

In this study, we analyzed the relationship between state firearm laws and the incidence and severity (i.e., number of victims) of mass public shootings in the United States during the period 1976-2018.

HYPOTHESES

We hypothesized that states requiring permits to purchase firearms would have a lower incidence of mass public shootings than states not requiring permits. We also hypothesized that states banning large-capacity ammunition magazines would experience a lower number of victims in mass public shootings that did occur than states without bans.

METHOD

We developed a panel of annual, state-specific data on firearm laws and mass public shooting events and victim counts. We used a generalized estimating equations logistic regression to examine the relationship between eight state firearm laws and the likelihood of a mass public shooting. We then used a zero-inflated negative binomial model to assess the relationship between these laws and the number of fatalities and nonfatal injuries in these incidents.

RESULTS

State laws requiring a permit to purchase a firearm were associated with 60% lower odds of a mass public shooting occurring (95% confidence interval [CI: -32%, -76%]). Large-capacity magazine bans were associated with 38% fewer fatalities (95% CI [-12%, -57%]) and 77% fewer nonfatal injuries (95% CI [-43%, -91%]) when a mass shooting occurred.

CONCLUSION

Laws requiring permits to purchase a gun are associated with a lower incidence of mass public shootings, and bans on large capacity magazines are associated with fewer fatalities and nonfatal injuries when such events do occur. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved).

Maturation beyond Age: Interrelationships among Psychosocial, Adult Role, and Identity Maturation and their Implications for Desistance from Crime

The integrated maturation theory describes psychosocial, adult role, and identity maturation as interrelated domains associated with criminal desistance, but to this point these domains have not been examined simultaneously, which raises questions about the relative importance of each domain to desistance. The aims of the current study were to unravel the development of maturation by examining interrelationships across components of psychosocial, adult role, and identity domains while also clarifying which components were related to desistance. Data were used from the Pathways to Desistance Study on male (n= 1170) and female (n= 184) youth with a history of offending. Participants were an average age of 14.04 (SD= 1.14) at baseline and were followed for seven years. Network modeling examined, from between-subjects and within-individual perspectives, (a) relationships among repeated measures of psychosocial, adult role, and identity maturation components and (b) relationships between these components and offending. Based on centrality indexes from the between-subjects network, responsibility (psychosocial domain), work orientation (adult role domain), and self identity (identity domain) were most important to the development of maturation. After accounting for interrelationships among maturation components, measures of consideration of others (adult role domain) and moral disengagement (identity domain) related to both lower levels of offending and within-individual declines in offending. The findings supported the integrated maturation theory's description of maturation as comprised of a wide range of interrelated components across different domains that are important to desistance.

Deconstructing Incidents of Campus Sexual Assault: Comparing Male and Female Victimizations

Research on campus sexual assault (CSA) has almost exclusively drawn on self-report data, examined undergraduates (i.e., students aged 18-24), and focused on female victimization. The few studies which included male CSA victims generally had fewer than 100 male subjects, which makes important statistical analyses difficult. To build upon prior literature and expand knowledge on male CSA victimization, we analyzed more than 5,000 incidents of CSA that were reported to police from across the United States using National Incident-Based Reporting System data (NIBRS; 1993-2014). We expanded victim age ranges to include those 17 to 32 years old and investigated more male CSA victimizations than prior work to date, approximately 350 incidents. Comparisons of male victim versus female victim CSA incidents, estimated via multivariate logistic regression, revealed several important patterns. Although both male and female victims were approximately 19 years old on average, perpetrators who assaulted females tended to be 23 years old while those assaulting males were on average 29. While 1% of CSA perpetrators offending against female victims were themselves female, 17% of perpetrators offending against male victims were female. Finally, CSA incidents with male victims were more likely to include multiple offenders, but less likely to involve stranger or Black perpetrators and also less likely to result in injuries relative to CSA incidents with female victims. Implications are discussed in terms of policing practices, and we pose new questions to the field regarding the study and prevention of CSA.

Health and criminal justice system involvement among African American siblings

IMPORTANCE

Health disparities between African Americans and Whites have persisted in the United States. Researchers have recently hypothesized that the relatively poor health of African Americans may be caused, in part, by African American overrepresentation in the criminal justice system.

OBJECTIVES

To test the hypothesis that criminal justice system involvement is associated with poor health and greater health risk when controlling for unobserved family factors through a discordant sibling design.

METHODS

Subjects were drawn from the Carolina African American Twin Study of Aging (CAATSA). Criminal conviction records were extracted from North Carolina's Department of Public Safety. Six measures of health and one measure of health risk were analyzed. The health of convicted respondents was compared to that of unrelated non-convicted respondents matched on childhood and demographic factors ("matched sample"). Convicted respondents were also compared to non-convicted siblings ("discordant sibling sample").

RESULTS

The matched sample included 134 CAATSA respondents. On average, convicted CAATSA respondents, compared to matched non-convicted respondents, were in worse health. Convicted respondents had worse mean self-reported health, worse lung function, more depressive symptoms, and smoked more. The discordant sibling sample included 74 respondents. Convicted siblings and non-convicted siblings had similar self-reported health, depressive symptoms, and smoking. In general, non-convicted siblings were in worse health than non-convicted respondents from the matched sample, implying that poor health runs in families.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provided preliminary evidence that some of the association between a criminal record and poor health is confounded by family factors. Though more research is needed to support these results, the study suggests that criminal involvement may not be associated with the surfeit of health problems observed among African Americans. The criminal justice system, nonetheless, could be used to decrease the health disparity.

The home-field advantage and the perils of professional judgment: Evaluating the performance of the Static-99R and the MnSOST-3 in predicting sexual recidivism

When sex offenders in Minnesota are assigned risk levels prior to their release from prison, correctional staff frequently exercise professional judgment by overriding the presumptive risk level per an offender's score on the Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool-3 (MnSOST-3), a sexual recidivism risk-assessment instrument. These overrides enabled us to evaluate whether the use of professional judgment resulted in better predictive performance than did reliance on "actuarial" judgment (MnSOST-3). Using multiple metrics, we also compared the performance of a home-grown instrument (the MnSOST-3) with a global assessment (the revised version of the Static-99 [Static-99R]) in predicting sexual recidivism for 650 sex offenders released from Minnesota prisons in 2012. The results showed that use of professional judgment led to a significant degradation in predictive performance. Likewise, the MnSOST-3 outperformed the Static-99R for both sexual recidivism measures (rearrest and reconviction) across most of the performance metrics we used. These results imply that actuarial tools and home-grown tools are preferred relative to those that include professional judgment and those developed on different populations. (PsycINFO Database Record

Rampage shootings: an historical, empirical, and theoretical overview

Rampage shootings is a relatively new term to describe a phenomenon that has a long history. Rampage shootings are mass shootings (generally defined as involving four or more victims), taking place in a public location, with victims chosen randomly or for symbolic purposes. These shootings are isolated events, meaning they are not connected to another criminal act (such as robbery or terrorism). Research suggests that rampage shootings are not a new phenomenon, but have occurred throughout the US since the early 1900s. There is some evidence of an increase in recent years, but definitional differences across studies and data sources make interpreting trends somewhat tenuous. Theories regarding the perpetration of rampage shootings center on masculinity, mental illness, and contagion effects. Policies aimed at preventing rampage shootings remain somewhat controversial and not well-tested in the literature.

GROWING UP IS HARD TO DO: AN EMPIRICAL EVALUATION OF MATURATION AND DESISTANCE

PURPOSE

With an increase in longitudinal datasets and analyses, scholars have made theoretical advances toward understanding desistance, using biological, social, and psychological factors. In an effort to integrate the theoretical views on desistance, some scholars have argued that each of these views represents a piece of adult maturation. Yet to date, research has not empirically examined an integrated perspective. The purpose of this study is to conduct an exploratory examination of various "domains" of maturation to determine whether they explain desistance from crime separately and as a whole.

METHODS

Using the Rutgers Health and Human Development Project, a longitudinal study spanning ages 12-31, we develop exploratory measures of maturation in five domains: 1) adult social roles, 2) identity/cognitive, 3) psychosocial, 4) civic, and 5) neurocognitive. We then utilize growth curve models to examine the relationship between these domains and crime over time.

RESULTS

Although each of the domains is associated with crime at the bivariate level, only three (i.e., psychosocial, identity/cognitive transformation, and adult social role) remain significant in the growth curve models (2 in within-individual analyses). In addition, a combined measure of maturation is related to crime, indicating that greater maturation through emerging adulthood has a negative effect on criminal behavior and is, therefore, a factor influencing desistance.

CONCLUSIONS

Maturation emerges as a promising approach to integrating the multiple theoretical views that characterize the literature on desistance from crime. Further research should develop additional domains and determine the best approach for measurement.

Implementing and sustaining evidence-based practice in juvenile justice: a case study of a rural state

US juvenile justice is at the forefront of experimentation with the evidence-based paradigm, whereby the best available research is utilized to help inform more rational and effective practice. Increasingly, state governments are playing a major role in this endeavor. Maine is one of these states and is the focus of this article. Using a case-study design, we set out to develop a fuller understanding of the events and processes that have contributed to the development, implementation, and sustainment of evidence-based practice in juvenile justice in the state. Four major themes emerged. First, Maine has benefited from strong and lasting leadership within its corrections department. These leaders paved the way for the implementation and sustainment of programs, including finding innovative ways to use existing resources. Second, the adoption of the Risk-Need-Responsivity model was important in laying the groundwork for the use of evidence-based programming. Third, collaborations within and among state agencies and public and private groups were essential. Finally, buy-in and support from multiple stakeholders was and continues to be essential to Maine's work. Ongoing problems remain with respect to ensuring agencies prioritize fidelity to the model and locating increasingly scarce funding. Implications for other states are discussed.

Social bonds and change during incarceration: testing a missing link in the reentry research

Research examining prisoner reentry has demonstrated negative impacts of incarceration on social bonds. However, this research is limited in two ways. First, it generally examines outcomes after release, paying less attention to processes occurring in prison. Second, this work tends to examine "incarceration" as a whole, regarding prisons as homogenous. This study uses data from an experiment in which offenders were randomly assigned to incarceration at one of two prisons polarized across a number of structural characteristics that research suggests affect social bonds (a traditional prison vs. a correctional boot camp). Groups were compared with respect to commitment, belief, attachment, and in terms of changes among their relationships during incarceration. The data showed that the boot camp improved prosocial beliefs, but few differences emerged in terms of commitment and attachment. Similarly, the data showed few differences in attachment regardless of the prosocial or antisocial orientation of the inmate's friends or family.