Quantifying contributions of natural variability and anthropogenic forcings on increased fire weather risk over the western United States

Previous studies have identified a recent increase in wildfire activity in the western United States (WUS). However, the extent to which this trend is due to weather pattern changes dominated by natural variability versus anthropogenic warming has been unclear. Using an ensemble constructed flow analogue approach, we have employed observations to estimate vapor pressure deficit (VPD), the leading meteorological variable that controls wildfires, associated with different atmospheric circulation patterns. Our results show that for the period 1979 to 2020, variation in the atmospheric circulation explains, on average, only 32% of the observed VPD trend of 0.48 ± 0.25 hPa/decade (95% CI) over the WUS during the warm season (May to September). The remaining 68% of the upward VPD trend is likely due to anthropogenic warming. The ensemble simulations of climate models participating in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project suggest that anthropogenic forcing explains an even larger fraction of the observed VPD trend (88%) for the same period and region. These models and observational estimates likely provide a lower and an upper bound on the true impact of anthropogenic warming on the VPD trend over the WUS. During August 2020, when the August Complex "Gigafire" occurred in the WUS, anthropogenic warming likely explains 50% of the unprecedented high VPD anomalies.

Asymmetrical effects of mesophyll conductance on fundamental photosynthetic parameters and their relationships estimated from leaf gas exchange measurements

Worldwide measurements of nearly 130 C3 species covering all major plant functional types are analysed in conjunction with model simulations to determine the effects of mesophyll conductance (g(m)) on photosynthetic parameters and their relationships estimated from A/Ci curves. We find that an assumption of infinite g(m) results in up to 75% underestimation for maximum carboxylation rate V(cmax), 60% for maximum electron transport rate J(max), and 40% for triose phosphate utilization rate T(u) . V(cmax) is most sensitive, J(max) is less sensitive, and T(u) has the least sensitivity to the variation of g(m). Because of this asymmetrical effect of g(m), the ratios of J(max) to V(cmax), T(u) to V(cmax) and T(u) to J(max) are all overestimated. An infinite g(m) assumption also limits the freedom of variation of estimated parameters and artificially constrains parameter relationships to stronger shapes. These findings suggest the importance of quantifying g(m) for understanding in situ photosynthetic machinery functioning. We show that a nonzero resistance to CO2 movement in chloroplasts has small effects on estimated parameters. A non-linear function with gm as input is developed to convert the parameters estimated under an assumption of infinite gm to proper values. This function will facilitate gm representation in global carbon cycle models.

Expression of the repulsive SLIT/ROBO pathway in the human endometrium and Fallopian tube

We investigated whether the repulsive SLIT/ROBO pathway is expressed in the endometrium and is negatively regulated during implantation. We also examined whether deficient expression in the Fallopian tube (FT) may predispose to ectopic pregnancy (EP). Endometrium (n = 21) and FT (n = 17) were collected across the menstrual cycle from fertile women with regular cycles. Decidualized endometrium (n = 6) was obtained from women undergoing termination, and FT (n = 6) was obtained from women with EP. SLIT/ROBO expression was quantified by reverse transcription-PCR and protein localized by immunohistochemistry. The regulation of SLIT/ROBO expression in vitro, by sex steroids and hCG, was assessed in endometrial (hTERT-EEpC) epithelial cells, and the effects of Chlamydia trachomatis infection and smoking were studied in oviductal (OE-E6/E7) epithelial cells. Endometrial SLIT3 was highest in the mid-secretory phase (P = 0.0003) and SLIT1,2 and ROBO1 showed a similar trend. ROBO2 was highest in proliferative phase (P = 0.027) and ROBO3,4 showed a similar trend. SLIT2,3 and ROBO1, 4 were lower in decidua compared with mid-secretory endometrium (P < 0.05). SLITs and ROBOs, excepting ROBO2, were expressed in FT but there were no differences across the cycle or in EP. SLIT/ROBO proteins were localized to endometrial and FT epithelium. Treatment of hTERT-EEpC with a combination of estradiol and medroxyprogesterone acetate inhibited ROBO1 expression (P < 0.01) but hCG had no effect. Acute treatment of OE-E6/E7 with smoking metabolite, cotinine, and C. trachomatis had no effect. These findings imply a regulated role for the endometrial SLIT/ROBO interaction during normal development and pregnancy but that it may not be important in the aetiology of EP.

Epigenetic regulation of the ras effector/tumour suppressor RASSF2 in breast and lung cancer

RASSF2 is a recently identified member of a class of novel tumour suppressor genes, all containing a ras-association domain. RASSF2 resides at 20p13, a region frequently lost in human cancers. In this report we investigated methylation status of the RASSF2 promoter CpG island in a series of breast, ovarian and non-small cell lung cancers (NSCLC). RASSF2 was frequently methylated in breast tumour cell lines (65%, 13/20) and in primary breast tumours (38%, 15/40). RASSF2 expression could be switched back on in methylated breast tumour cell lines after treatment with 5'-aza-2'deoxycytidine. RASSF2 was also frequently methylated in NSCLC tumours (44%, (22/50). The small number of corresponding normal breast and lung tissue DNA samples analysed were unmethylated. We also did not detect RASSF2 methylation in ovarian tumours (0/17). Furthermore no mutations were found in the coding region of RASSF2 in these ovarian tumours. We identified a highly conserved putative bipartite nuclear localization signal (NLS) and demonstrated that endogenous RASSF2 localized to the nucleus. Mutation of the putative NLS abolished the nuclear localization. RASSF2 suppressed breast tumour cell growth in vitro and in vivo, while the ability of NLS-mutant RASSF2 to suppress growth was much diminished. Hence we demonstrate that RASSF2 has a functional NLS that is important for its tumour suppressor gene function. Our data from this and a previous report indicate that RASSF2 is frequently methylated in colorectal, breast and NSCLC tumours. We have identified RASSF2 as a novel methylation marker for multiple malignancies and it has the potential to be developed into a valuable marker for screening several cancers in parallel using promoter hypermethylation profiles.

Impact of vegetation removal and soil aridation on diurnal temperature range in a semiarid region: application to the Sahel

Increased clouds and precipitation normally decrease the diurnal temperature range (DTR) and thus have commonly been offered as explanation for the trend of reduced DTR observed for many land areas over the last several decades. Observations show, however, that the DTR was reduced most in dry regions and especially in the West African Sahel during a period of unprecedented drought. Furthermore, the negative trend of DTR in the Sahel appears to have stopped and may have reversed after the rainfall began to recover. This study develops a hypothesis with climate model sensitivity studies showing that either a reduction in vegetation cover or a reduction in soil emissivity would reduce the DTR by increasing nighttime temperature through increased soil heating and reduced outgoing longwave radiation. Consistent with empirical analyses of observational data, our results suggest that vegetation removal and soil aridation would act to reduce the DTR during periods of drought and human mismanagement over semiarid regions such as the Sahel and to increase the DTR with more rainfall and better human management. Other mechanisms with similar effects on surface energy balance, such as increased nighttime downward longwave radiation due to increased greenhouse gases, aerosols, and clouds, would also be expected to have a larger impact on DTR over drier regions.

Large seasonal swings in leaf area of Amazon rainforests

Despite early speculation to the contrary, all tropical forests studied to date display seasonal variations in the presence of new leaves, flowers, and fruits. Past studies were focused on the timing of phenological events and their cues but not on the accompanying changes in leaf area that regulate vegetation-atmosphere exchanges of energy, momentum, and mass. Here we report, from analysis of 5 years of recent satellite data, seasonal swings in green leaf area of approximately 25% in a majority of the Amazon rainforests. This seasonal cycle is timed to the seasonality of solar radiation in a manner that is suggestive of anticipatory and opportunistic patterns of net leaf flushing during the early to mid part of the light-rich dry season and net leaf abscission during the cloudy wet season. These seasonal swings in leaf area may be critical to initiation of the transition from dry to wet season, seasonal carbon balance between photosynthetic gains and respiratory losses, and litterfall nutrient cycling in moist tropical forests.

Short circuit of water vapor and polluted air to the global stratosphere by convective transport over the Tibetan Plateau

During boreal summer, much of the water vapor and CO entering the global tropical stratosphere is transported over the Asian monsoon/Tibetan Plateau (TP) region. Studies have suggested that most of this transport is carried out either by tropical convection over the South Asian monsoon region or by extratropical convection over southern China. By using measurements from the newly available National Aeronautics and Space Administration Aura Microwave Limb Sounder, along with observations from the Aqua and Tropical Rainfall-Measuring Mission satellites, we establish that the TP provides the main pathway for cross-tropopause transport in this region. Tropospheric moist convection driven by elevated surface heating over the TP is deeper and detrains more water vapor, CO, and ice at the tropopause than over the monsoon area. Warmer tropopause temperatures and slower-falling, smaller cirrus cloud particles in less saturated ambient air at the tropopause also allow more water vapor to travel into the lower stratosphere over the TP, effectively short-circuiting the slower ascent of water vapor across the cold tropical tropopause over the monsoon area. Air that is high in water vapor and CO over the Asian monsoon/TP region enters the lower stratosphere primarily over the TP, and it is then transported toward the Asian monsoon area and disperses into the large-scale upward motion of the global stratospheric circulation. Thus, hydration of the global stratosphere could be especially sensitive to changes of convection over the TP.

Impact of aerosol indirect effect on surface temperature over East Asia

A regional coupled climate-chemistry-aerosol model is developed to examine the impacts of anthropogenic aerosols on surface temperature and precipitation over East Asia. Besides their direct and indirect reduction of short-wave solar radiation, the increased cloudiness and cloud liquid water generate a substantial downward positive long-wave surface forcing; consequently, nighttime temperature in winter increases by +0.7 degrees C, and the diurnal temperature range decreases by -0.7 degrees C averaged over the industrialized parts of China. Confidence in the simulated results is limited by uncertainties in model cloud physics. However, they are broadly consistent with the observed diurnal temperature range decrease as reported in China, suggesting that changes in downward long-wave radiation at the surface are important in understanding temperature changes from aerosols.

Epigenetic inactivation of SLIT3 and SLIT1 genes in human cancers

In Drosophila, the Slit gene product, a secreted glycoprotein, acts as a midline repellent to guide axonal development during embryogenesis. Three human Slit gene orthologues have been characterised and recently we reported frequent promoter region hypermethylation and transcriptional silencing of SLIT2 in lung, breast, colorectal and glioma cell lines and primary tumours. Furthermore, re-expression of SLIT2 inhibited the growth of cancer cell lines so that SLIT2 appears to function as a novel tumour suppressor gene (TSG). We analysed the expression of SLIT3 (5q35–34) and SLIT1 (1q23.3–q24) genes in 20 normal human tissues. Similar to SLIT2 expression profile, SLIT3 is expressed strongly in many tissues, while SLIT1 expression is neuronal specific. We analysed the 5′ CpG island of SLIT3 and SLIT1 genes in tumour cell lines and primary tumours for hypermethylation. SLIT3 was found to be methylated in 12 out of 29 (41%) of breast, one out of 15 (6.7%) lung, two out of six (33%) colorectal and in two out of (29%) glioma tumour cell lines. In tumour cell lines, silenced SLIT3 associated with hypermethylation and was re-expressed after treatment with 5-aza-2′-deoxycytidine. In primary tumours, SLIT3 was methylated in 16% of primary breast tumours, 35% of gliomas and 38% of colorectal tumours. Direct sequencing of bisulphite-modified DNA from methylated tumour cell lines and primary tumours demonstrated that majority of the CpG sites analysed were heavily methylated. Thus, both SLIT2 and SLIT3 are frequently methylated in gliomas and colorectal cancers, but the frequency of SLIT3 methylation in lung and breast cancer is significantly less than that for SLIT2. We also demonstrated SLIT1 promoter region hypermethylation in glioma tumour lines (five out of six; 83%), the methylation frequency in glioma tumours was much lower (two out of 20; 10%). Hence, evidence is accumulating for the involvement of members of the guidance cues molecules and their receptors in tumour development.

Evidence for a significant urbanization effect on climate in China

China has experienced rapid urbanization and dramatic economic growth since its reform process started in late 1978. In this article, we present evidence for a significant urbanization effect on climate based on analysis of impacts of land-use changes on surface temperature in southeast China, where rapid urbanization has occurred. Our estimated warming of mean surface temperature of 0.05 degrees C per decade attributable to urbanization is much larger than previous estimates for other periods and locations. The spatial pattern and magnitude of our estimate are consistent with those of urbanization characterized by changes in the percentage of urban population and in satellite-measured greenness.

Modeling the Exchanges of Energy, Water, and Carbon Between Continents and the Atmosphere

Atmospheric general circulation models used for climate simulation and weather forecasting require the fluxes of radiation, heat, water vapor, and momentum across the land-atmosphere interface to be specified. These fluxes are calculated by submodels called land surface parameterizations. Over the last 20 years, these parameterizations have evolved from simple, unrealistic schemes into credible representations of the global soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer system as advances in plant physiological and hydrological research, advances in satellite data interpretation, and the results of large-scale field experiments have been exploited. Some modern schemes incorporate biogeochemical and ecological knowledge and, when coupled with advanced climate and ocean models, will be capable of modeling the biological and physical responses of the Earth system to global change, for example, increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide.

Effects of Aerosol from Biomass Burning on the Global Radiation Budget

An analysis is made of the likely contribution of smoke particles from biomass burning to the global radiation balance. These particles act to reflect solar radiation directly; they also can act as cloud condensation nuclei, increasing the reflectivity of clouds. Together these effects, although uncertain, may add up globally to a cooling effect as large as 2 watts per square meter, comparable to the estimated contribution of sulfate aerosols. Anthropogenic increases of smoke emission thus may have helped weaken the net greenhouse warming from anthropogenic trace gases.