The burden of neurological conditions in north Africa and the Middle East, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

The burden of neurological conditions in north Africa and the Middle East is increasing. We aimed to assess the changes in the burden of neurological conditions in this super-region to aid with future decision making.

METHODS

In this analysis of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 data, we examined temporal trends of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; deaths and disabilities combined), deaths, incident cases, and prevalent cases of 14 major neurological conditions and eight subtypes in 21 countries in the north Africa and the Middle East super-region. Additionally, we assessed neurological DALYs due to 22 potentially modifiable risk factors, within four levels of classification, during the period 1990-2019. We used a Bayesian modelling estimation approach, and generated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for final estimates on the basis of the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of 1000 draws from the posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

In 2019, there were 441·1 thousand (95% UI 347·2-598·4) deaths and 17·6 million (12·5-24·7) neurological DALYs in north Africa and the Middle East. The leading causes of neurological DALYs were stroke, migraine, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (hereafter dementias). In north Africa and the Middle East in 2019, 85·8% (82·6-89·1) of stroke and 39·9% (26·4-54·7) of dementia age-standardised DALYs were attributable to modifiable risk factors. North Africa and the Middle East had the highest age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 population due to dementia (387·0 [172·0-848·5]), Parkinson's disease (84·4 [74·7-103·2]), and migraine (601·4 [107·0-1371·8]) among the global super-regions. Between 1990 and 2019, there was a decrease in the age-standardised DALY rates related to meningitis (-75·8% [-81·1 to -69·5]), tetanus (-88·2% [-93·9 to -76·1]), stroke (-32·0% [-39·1 to -23·3]), intracerebral haemorrhage (-51·7% [-58·2 to -43·8]), idiopathic epilepsy (-26·2% [-43·6 to -1·1]), and subarachnoid haemorrhage (-62·8% [-71·6 to -41·0]), but for all other neurological conditions there was no change. During 1990-2019, the number of DALYs due to dementias, Parkinson's disease, multiple sclerosis, ischaemic stroke, and headache disorder (ie, migraine and tension-type headache) more than doubled in the super-region, and the burden of years lived with disability (YLDs), incidence, and prevalence of multiple sclerosis, motor neuron disease, Parkinson's disease, and ischaemic stroke increased both in age-standardised rate and count. During this period, the absolute burden of YLDs due to head and spinal injuries almost doubled.

INTERPRETATION

The increasing burden of neurological conditions in north Africa and the Middle East accompanies the increasing ageing population. Stroke and dementia are the primary causes of neurological disability and death, primarily attributable to common modifiable risk factors. Synergistic, systematic, lifetime, and multi-sectoral interventions aimed at preventing or mitigating the burden are needed.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

TRANSLATIONS

For the Persian, Arabic and Turkish translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION

Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Disorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

We estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined.

FINDINGS

Globally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378-521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20-3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5-45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7-26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6-38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5-32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7-2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer.

INTERPRETATION

As the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period.

METHODS

22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.

INTERPRETATION

Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Temporal patterns of cancer burden in Asia, 1990-2019: a systematic examination for the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study

Background

Cancers represent a challenging public health threat in Asia. This study examines the temporal patterns of incidence, mortality, disability and risk factors of 29 cancers in Asia in the last three decades.

Methods

The age, sex and year-wise estimates of incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of 29 cancers for 49 Asian countries from 1990 through 2019 were generated as a part of the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries and Risk Factors 2019 study. Besides incidence, mortality and DALYs, we also examined the cancer burden measured in terms of DALYs and deaths attributable to risk factors, which had evidence of causation with different cancers. The development status of countries was measured using the socio-demographic index. Decomposition analysis was performed to gauge the change in cancer incidence between 1990 and 2019 due to population growth, aging and age-specific incidence rates.

Findings

All cancers combined claimed an estimated 5.6 million [95% uncertainty interval, 5.1-6.0 million] lives in Asia with 9.4 million [8.6-10.2 million] incident cases and 144.7 million [132.7-156.5 million] DALYs in 2019. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of all cancers combined in Asia was 197.6/100,000 [181.0-214.4] in 2019, varying from 99.2/100,000 [76.1-126.0] in Bangladesh to 330.5/100,000 [298.5-365.8] in Cyprus. The age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) was 120.6/100,000 [110.1-130.7] in 2019, varying 4-folds across countries from 71.0/100,000 [59.9-83.5] in Kuwait to 284.2/100,000 [229.2-352.3] in Mongolia. The age-standardized DALYs rate was 2970.5/100,000 [2722.6-3206.5] in 2019, varying from 1578.0/100,000 [1341.2-1847.0] in Kuwait to 6574.4/100,000 [5141.7-8333.0] in Mongolia. Between 1990 and 2019, deaths due to 17 of the 29 cancers either doubled or more, and 20 of the 29 cancers underwent an increase of 150% or more in terms of new cases. Tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer (both sexes), breast cancer (among females), colon and rectum cancer (both sexes), stomach cancer (both sexes) and prostate cancer (among males) were among top-5 cancers in most Asian countries in terms of ASIR and ASMR in 2019 and cancers of liver, stomach, hodgkin lymphoma and esophageal cancer posted the most significant decreases in age-standardized rates between 1990 and 2019. Among the modifiable risk factors, smoking, alcohol use, ambient particulate matter (PM) pollution and unsafe sex remained the dominant risk factors between 1990 and 2019. Cancer DALYs due to ambient PM pollution, high body mass index and fasting plasma glucose has increased most notably between 1990 and 2019.

Interpretation

With growing incidence, cancer has become more significant public health threat in Asia, demanding urgent policy attention and guidance. Its heightened risk calls for increased cancer awareness, preventive measures, affordable early-stage detection, and cost-effective therapeutics in Asia. The current study can serve as a useful resource for policymakers and researchers in Asia for devising interventions for cancer management and control.

Funding

The GBD study is funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

The Prevalence of Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension in Patients with Beta Thalassemia Major

Pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) remains a concern in patients with Beta thalassemia major (TM). However, this study aims to investigate the prevalence of PAH in TM patients in Kerman City placed in the south of Iran. In this cross-sectional study on 271 IranianBeta-thalassemia patients (mean age 19.8 ± 7.9 in the range 10-60), Age, sex, weekly deferral taking, the number of blood transfusion in a month, and last echocardiography report data was gathered from every patient's file. SPSS for Windows (version 21) was used for analysis. According to the results, the prevalence of PAH was 10.3% (28 patients). PAH had significant associations with weekly deferral consumption (P = 0.028), ferritin serum level (P = 0.001), and ejection fraction (EF) (P = 0.001). PAH is positively associated with deferral consumption and is negatively associated with EF (respectively, P = 0.031, P = 0.001). It is very important to consider prevention and treatment for decreasing the mortality and morbidity of PAH patients in health planning and policy.

Sleep duration and Framingham´s cardiovascular risk score: results from the Hoveyzeh Cohort Study (HCS)

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the leading causes of global deaths. So, it is necessary to know the possible risk factors for each region. We aimed to assess the relationship between the risk of CVDs and sleep duration in the Iranian Arab population.

METHODS

In this cross-sectional study, data from 8362 participants aged between 35 and 70 from the Hoveyzeh Cohort Study enrollment phase between 2016 and 2018 was analyzed. This study evaluated the association between ten-year CVD risk using the Framingham risk score and sleep duration. Self-reported sleep duration was categorized as short duration (equal to or less than 5 h), standard duration (6-8 h), or prolonged duration (equal to or greater than 9 h). Multivariable logistic regression to adjust for conventional CVD risks was used.

RESULTS

Among the assessed participants, 4892 (58.50%) were female, and the mean age was 47.93 (9.01). The average sleep duration was 7.59 (1.56) hours. The low, intermediate-to-high, and high CVD risk individuals were 6461 (77.27%), 1185 (14.17%), and 716 (8.56%), respectively. There was a significant relationship between prolonged sleep duration and lower odds of intermediate-to-high CVD risk in males (OR 0.66, 95% CI: 0.49-0.87, P-value: 0.004).

CONCLUSION

The results of our study showed that longer sleep duration has a protective association with the intermediate to high risk of cardiovascular diseases in males. However, long and short sleep durations have no significant relationship with females' risk of cardiovascular disease.

Global, regional, and national incidence of six major immune-mediated inflammatory diseases: findings from the global burden of disease study 2019

Background

The causes for immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs) are diverse and the incidence trends of IMIDs from specific causes are rarely studied. The study aims to investigate the pattern and trend of IMIDs from 1990 to 2019.

Methods

We collected detailed information on six major causes of IMIDs, including asthma, inflammatory bowel disease, multiple sclerosis, rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, and atopic dermatitis, between 1990 and 2019, derived from the Global Burden of Disease study in 2019. The average annual percent change (AAPC) in number of incidents and age standardized incidence rate (ASR) on IMIDs, by sex, age, region, and causes, were calculated to quantify the temporal trends.

Findings

In 2019, rheumatoid arthritis, atopic dermatitis, asthma, multiple sclerosis, psoriasis, inflammatory bowel disease accounted 1.59%, 36.17%, 54.71%, 0.09%, 6.84%, 0.60% of overall new IMIDs cases, respectively. The ASR of IMIDs showed substantial regional and global variation with the highest in High SDI region, High-income North America, and United States of America. Throughout human lifespan, the age distribution of incident cases from six IMIDs was quite different. Globally, incident cases of IMIDs increased with an AAPC of 0.68 and the ASR decreased with an AAPC of -0.34 from 1990 to 2019. The incident cases increased across six IMIDs, the ASR of rheumatoid arthritis increased (0.21, 95% CI 0.18, 0.25), while the ASR of asthma (AAPC = -0.41), inflammatory bowel disease (AAPC = -0.72), multiple sclerosis (AAPC = -0.26), psoriasis (AAPC = -0.77), and atopic dermatitis (AAPC = -0.15) decreased. The ASR of overall and six individual IMID increased with SDI at regional and global level. Countries with higher ASR in 1990 experienced a more rapid decrease in ASR.

Interpretation

The incidence patterns of IMIDs varied considerably across the world. Innovative prevention and integrative management strategy are urgently needed to mitigate the increasing ASR of rheumatoid arthritis and upsurging new cases of other five IMIDs, respectively.

Funding

The Global Burden of Disease Study is funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. The project funded by Scientific Research Fund of Sichuan Academy of Medical Sciences & Sichuan Provincial People's Hospital (2022QN38).

Global, regional, and national burden of rheumatoid arthritis, 1990-2020, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background

Rheumatoid arthritis is a chronic autoimmune inflammatory disease associated with disability and premature death. Up-to-date estimates of the burden of rheumatoid arthritis are required for health-care planning, resource allocation, and prevention. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021, we provide updated estimates of the prevalence of rheumatoid arthritis and its associated deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age, sex, year, and location, with forecasted prevalence to 2050.

Methods

Rheumatoid arthritis prevalence was estimated in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020 using Bayesian meta-regression models and data from population-based studies and medical claims data (98 prevalence and 25 incidence studies). Mortality was estimated from vital registration data with the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm). Years of life lost (YLL) were calculated with use of standard GBD lifetables, and years lived with disability (YLDs) were estimated from prevalence, a meta-analysed distribution of rheumatoid arthritis severity, and disability weights. DALYs were calculated by summing YLLs and YLDs. Smoking was the only risk factor analysed. Rheumatoid arthritis prevalence was forecast to 2050 by logistic regression with Socio-Demographic Index as a predictor, then multiplying by projected population estimates.

Findings

In 2020, an estimated 17·6 million (95% uncertainty interval 15·8-20·3) people had rheumatoid arthritis worldwide. The age-standardised global prevalence rate was 208·8 cases (186·8-241·1) per 100 000 population, representing a 14·1% (12·7-15·4) increase since 1990. Prevalence was higher in females (age-standardised female-to-male prevalence ratio 2·45 [2·40-2·47]). The age-standardised death rate was 0·47 (0·41-0·54) per 100 000 population (38 300 global deaths [33 500-44 000]), a 23·8% (17·5-29·3) decrease from 1990 to 2020. The 2020 DALY count was 3 060 000 (2 320 000-3 860 000), with an age-standardised DALY rate of 36·4 (27·6-45·9) per 100 000 population. YLDs accounted for 76·4% (68·3-81·0) of DALYs. Smoking risk attribution for rheumatoid arthritis DALYs was 7·1% (3·6-10·3). We forecast that 31·7 million (25·8-39·0) individuals will be living with rheumatoid arthritis worldwide by 2050.

Interpretation

Rheumatoid arthritis mortality has decreased globally over the past three decades. Global age-standardised prevalence rate and YLDs have increased over the same period, and the number of cases is projected to continue to increase to the year 2050. Improved access to early diagnosis and treatment of rheumatoid arthritis globally is required to reduce the future burden of the disease.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Institute of Bone and Joint Research, and Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal Health.

Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Diabetes is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide, and affects people regardless of country, age group, or sex. Using the most recent evidentiary and analytical framework from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), we produced location-specific, age-specific, and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden from 1990 to 2021, the proportion of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in 2021, the proportion of the type 2 diabetes burden attributable to selected risk factors, and projections of diabetes prevalence through 2050.

METHODS

Estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden were computed in 204 countries and territories, across 25 age groups, for males and females separately and combined; these estimates comprised lost years of healthy life, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; defined as the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]). We used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach to estimate deaths due to diabetes, incorporating 25 666 location-years of data from vital registration and verbal autopsy reports in separate total (including both type 1 and type 2 diabetes) and type-specific models. Other forms of diabetes, including gestational and monogenic diabetes, were not explicitly modelled. Total and type 1 diabetes prevalence was estimated by use of a Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to analyse 1527 location-years of data from the scientific literature, survey microdata, and insurance claims; type 2 diabetes estimates were computed by subtracting type 1 diabetes from total estimates. Mortality and prevalence estimates, along with standard life expectancy and disability weights, were used to calculate YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs. When appropriate, we extrapolated estimates to a hypothetical population with a standardised age structure to allow comparison in populations with different age structures. We used the comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the risk-attributable type 2 diabetes burden for 16 risk factors falling under risk categories including environmental and occupational factors, tobacco use, high alcohol use, high body-mass index (BMI), dietary factors, and low physical activity. Using a regression framework, we forecast type 1 and type 2 diabetes prevalence through 2050 with Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and high BMI as predictors, respectively.

FINDINGS

In 2021, there were 529 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 500-564) people living with diabetes worldwide, and the global age-standardised total diabetes prevalence was 6·1% (5·8-6·5). At the super-region level, the highest age-standardised rates were observed in north Africa and the Middle East (9·3% [8·7-9·9]) and, at the regional level, in Oceania (12·3% [11·5-13·0]). Nationally, Qatar had the world's highest age-specific prevalence of diabetes, at 76·1% (73·1-79·5) in individuals aged 75-79 years. Total diabetes prevalence-especially among older adults-primarily reflects type 2 diabetes, which in 2021 accounted for 96·0% (95·1-96·8) of diabetes cases and 95·4% (94·9-95·9) of diabetes DALYs worldwide. In 2021, 52·2% (25·5-71·8) of global type 2 diabetes DALYs were attributable to high BMI. The contribution of high BMI to type 2 diabetes DALYs rose by 24·3% (18·5-30·4) worldwide between 1990 and 2021. By 2050, more than 1·31 billion (1·22-1·39) people are projected to have diabetes, with expected age-standardised total diabetes prevalence rates greater than 10% in two super-regions: 16·8% (16·1-17·6) in north Africa and the Middle East and 11·3% (10·8-11·9) in Latin America and Caribbean. By 2050, 89 (43·6%) of 204 countries and territories will have an age-standardised rate greater than 10%.

INTERPRETATION

Diabetes remains a substantial public health issue. Type 2 diabetes, which makes up the bulk of diabetes cases, is largely preventable and, in some cases, potentially reversible if identified and managed early in the disease course. However, all evidence indicates that diabetes prevalence is increasing worldwide, primarily due to a rise in obesity caused by multiple factors. Preventing and controlling type 2 diabetes remains an ongoing challenge. It is essential to better understand disparities in risk factor profiles and diabetes burden across populations, to inform strategies to successfully control diabetes risk factors within the context of multiple and complex drivers.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national prevalence and mortality burden of sickle cell disease, 2000-2021: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Previous global analyses, with known underdiagnosis and single cause per death attribution systems, provide only a small insight into the suspected high population health effect of sickle cell disease. Completed as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021, this study delivers a comprehensive global assessment of prevalence of sickle cell disease and mortality burden by age and sex for 204 countries and territories from 2000 to 2021.

METHODS

We estimated cause-specific sickle cell disease mortality using standardised GBD approaches, in which each death is assigned to a single underlying cause, to estimate mortality rates from the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-coded vital registration, surveillance, and verbal autopsy data. In parallel, our goal was to estimate a more accurate account of sickle cell disease health burden using four types of epidemiological data on sickle cell disease: birth incidence, age-specific prevalence, with-condition mortality (total deaths), and excess mortality (excess deaths). Systematic reviews, supplemented with ICD-coded hospital discharge and insurance claims data, informed this modelling approach. We employed DisMod-MR 2.1 to triangulate between these measures-borrowing strength from predictive covariates and across age, time, and geography-and generated internally consistent estimates of incidence, prevalence, and mortality for three distinct genotypes of sickle cell disease: homozygous sickle cell disease and severe sickle cell β-thalassaemia, sickle-haemoglobin C disease, and mild sickle cell β-thalassaemia. Summing the three models yielded final estimates of incidence at birth, prevalence by age and sex, and total sickle cell disease mortality, the latter of which was compared directly against cause-specific mortality estimates to evaluate differences in mortality burden assessment and implications for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

FINDINGS

Between 2000 and 2021, national incidence rates of sickle cell disease were relatively stable, but total births of babies with sickle cell disease increased globally by 13·7% (95% uncertainty interval 11·1-16·5), to 515 000 (425 000-614 000), primarily due to population growth in the Caribbean and western and central sub-Saharan Africa. The number of people living with sickle cell disease globally increased by 41·4% (38·3-44·9), from 5·46 million (4·62-6·45) in 2000 to 7·74 million (6·51-9·2) in 2021. We estimated 34 400 (25 000-45 200) cause-specific all-age deaths globally in 2021, but total sickle cell disease mortality burden was nearly 11-times higher at 376 000 (303 000-467 000). In children younger than 5 years, there were 81 100 (58 800-108 000) deaths, ranking total sickle cell disease mortality as 12th (compared to 40th for cause-specific sickle cell disease mortality) across all causes estimated by the GBD in 2021.

INTERPRETATION

Our findings show a strikingly high contribution of sickle cell disease to all-cause mortality that is not apparent when each death is assigned to only a single cause. Sickle cell disease mortality burden is highest in children, especially in countries with the greatest under-5 mortality rates. Without comprehensive strategies to address morbidity and mortality associated with sickle cell disease, attainment of SDG 3.1, 3.2, and 3.4 is uncertain. Widespread data gaps and correspondingly high uncertainty in the estimates highlight the urgent need for routine and sustained surveillance efforts, further research to assess the contribution of conditions associated with sickle cell disease, and widespread deployment of evidence-based prevention and treatment for those with sickle cell disease.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Health literacy and its related factors as predictors for the breastfeeding self-efficacy in a western province in Iran

BACKGROUND

One of the effective factors on BF (Breastfeeding) continuation is Breastfeeding self-efficacy (BFSE). This study was conducted to determine the relationship between Health Literacy (HL) and BFSE in lactating mothers referring to primary health care centers.

METHODS

This cross-sectional descriptive study was carried out on lactating mothers referring to primary health care centers in 2022. Multi-stage cluster sampling was done with 160 samples. The data were collected using demographic questionnaire, Persian shortened form of the BSES is a self-reported instrument for measuring a mother's Breastfeeding self-efficacy and Health Literacy for Iranian Adults (HELIA). Data were analyzed using ANOVA, independent t-test, correlation test and liner regression by SPSS version 16, with a significance level of 5%.

RESULTS

There was a significant positive correlation between the HL score and its four domains( Reading, Behaviour and decision making, Accessing, and Understanding) except for the appraisal domain with BFSE score. The variables of use of formula, HL, duration of breastfeeding, and education were considered predictors of BFSE.

CONCLUSION

In general, the results indicate a possible relationship between BFSE and mothers' HL. Therefore, improving mother's HL can have a positive effect on promoting infants' nutrition.

Age-sex differences in the global burden of lower respiratory infections and risk factors, 1990-2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

The global burden of lower respiratory infections (LRIs) and corresponding risk factors in children older than 5 years and adults has not been studied as comprehensively as it has been in children younger than 5 years. We assessed the burden and trends of LRIs and risk factors across all age groups by sex, for 204 countries and territories.

METHODS

In this analysis of data for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we used clinician-diagnosed pneumonia or bronchiolitis as our case definition for LRIs. We included International Classification of Diseases 9th edition codes 079.6, 466-469, 470.0, 480-482.8, 483.0-483.9, 484.1-484.2, 484.6-484.7, and 487-489 and International Classification of Diseases 10th edition codes A48.1, A70, B97.4-B97.6, J09-J15.8, J16-J16.9, J20-J21.9, J91.0, P23.0-P23.4, and U04-U04.9. We used the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling strategy to analyse 23 109 site-years of vital registration data, 825 site-years of sample vital registration data, 1766 site-years of verbal autopsy data, and 681 site-years of mortality surveillance data. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, to analyse age-sex-specific incidence and prevalence data identified via systematic reviews of the literature, population-based survey data, and claims and inpatient data. Additionally, we estimated age-sex-specific LRI mortality that is attributable to the independent effects of 14 risk factors.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2019, we estimated that there were 257 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 240-275) LRI incident episodes in males and 232 million (217-248) in females. In the same year, LRIs accounted for 1·30 million (95% UI 1·18-1·42) male deaths and 1·20 million (1·07-1·33) female deaths. Age-standardised incidence and mortality rates were 1·17 times (95% UI 1·16-1·18) and 1·31 times (95% UI 1·23-1·41) greater in males than in females in 2019. Between 1990 and 2019, LRI incidence and mortality rates declined at different rates across age groups and an increase in LRI episodes and deaths was estimated among all adult age groups, with males aged 70 years and older having the highest increase in LRI episodes (126·0% [95% UI 121·4-131·1]) and deaths (100·0% [83·4-115·9]). During the same period, LRI episodes and deaths in children younger than 15 years were estimated to have decreased, and the greatest decline was observed for LRI deaths in males younger than 5 years (-70·7% [-77·2 to -61·8]). The leading risk factors for LRI mortality varied across age groups and sex. More than half of global LRI deaths in children younger than 5 years were attributable to child wasting (population attributable fraction [PAF] 53·0% [95% UI 37·7-61·8] in males and 56·4% [40·7-65·1] in females), and more than a quarter of LRI deaths among those aged 5-14 years were attributable to household air pollution (PAF 26·0% [95% UI 16·6-35·5] for males and PAF 25·8% [16·3-35·4] for females). PAFs of male LRI deaths attributed to smoking were 20·4% (95% UI 15·4-25·2) in those aged 15-49 years, 30·5% (24·1-36·9) in those aged 50-69 years, and 21·9% (16·8-27·3) in those aged 70 years and older. PAFs of female LRI deaths attributed to household air pollution were 21·1% (95% UI 14·5-27·9) in those aged 15-49 years and 18·2% (12·5-24·5) in those aged 50-69 years. For females aged 70 years and older, the leading risk factor, ambient particulate matter, was responsible for 11·7% (95% UI 8·2-15·8) of LRI deaths.

INTERPRETATION

The patterns and progress in reducing the burden of LRIs and key risk factors for mortality varied across age groups and sexes. The progress seen in children younger than 5 years was clearly a result of targeted interventions, such as vaccination and reduction of exposure to risk factors. Similar interventions for other age groups could contribute to the achievement of multiple Sustainable Development Goals targets, including promoting wellbeing at all ages and reducing health inequalities. Interventions, including addressing risk factors such as child wasting, smoking, ambient particulate matter pollution, and household air pollution, would prevent deaths and reduce health disparities.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Information System Success of the Iranian Integrated Health Record System Based on the Clinical Information System Success Model

Background: The Integrated Health Record System, locally known as the "SIB," is the most used information system for recording public health services provided to the Iranian population. The objective of this study was to evaluate the success rate of the SIB using the Clinical Information System Success Model (CISSM).

Methods: This is a psychometric and evaluation study. The CISSM has a 26-item instrument that assesses 7 constructs in 3 following stages: (1) the socio-technical stage (facilitating conditions, social influence, information quality, and system performance(; (2) the integrated stage (system use dependency and user satisfaction); and (3) success outcome stage (net benefit). A Persian version of the CISSM instrument was validated and applied in this study. Based on this instrument, the reliability and the validity of the CISSM were assessed. The SIB success rate was evaluated using a validated CISSM. The study participants were 758 SIB users from different disciplines and different levels.

Results: Assessment of content validity, construct validity, internal consistency, and test-retest reliability showed acceptable psychometric properties of the CISSM instrument. The results demonstrated that the SIB success rate was in the moderate range (59.6%). Facilitating conditions and information quality were strong predictors of use dependency and user satisfaction, while both of these 2 constructs significantly influenced net benefit.

Conclusion: The SIB success was in the moderate range, and it needs to be enhanced. Therefore, Iranian healthcare policymakers should consider working on the most important factors influencing SIB success (facilitating conditions, information quality, use dependency, and user satisfaction) to improve SIB success.

Anti-proteinuria effect of active vitamin D in patients with type 2 diabetic nephropathy

Introduction

Proteinuria is a common complication in patients with type 2 diabetic nephropathy (DN). The aim of this study was to evaluate the anti-proteinuria effect of active vitamin D in patients with type 2 DN.

Methods

A double-blind randomized clinical trial study was conducted on 42 DN patients selected by convenience sampling method. After selecting patients based on inclusion criteria, they were randomly divided into control and intervention groups. Patients in the intervention group received 0.25 mg of active vitamin D per day for 12 weeks. The variables evaluated in the patients on the first day of the intervention included fasting blood sugar (FBS), calcium, phosphorus, creatinine, glomerular filtration rate (GFR), systolic and diastolic blood pressure, and proteinuria. These variables were also evaluated at the end of the first, second, and third month of intervention. Data were collected and analyzed in Statistical Package for Social Sciences software version 22.

Results

Around 52.5% of the patients participating in this study were male and 47.5% were female. The mean age of the patients was 55.52 ± 6.58 years. The results of repeated measures analysis showed that active vitamin D significantly reduced proteinuria (P = 0.000) in patients in the intervention group. The changes in FBS (P = 0.235), calcium (P = 0.393), phosphorus (P = 0.694), creatinine (P = 0.232), GFR (P = 0.347), systolic blood pressure (P = 0.615), and diastolic blood pressure (P = 0.115) were not significant in patients in the intervention group.

Conclusion

Prescription of active vitamin D can significantly reduce the incidence of proteinuria in patients with DN.

Efficacy of naproxen in the management of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 infection: A randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, clinical trial

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The current study was done to examine the efficacy of naproxen in the management of patients with COVID-19 infection.

METHODS

This randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, clinical trial was done on hospitalized adult patients with confirmed COVID-19 infection. Patients were randomly assigned to receive either naproxen (two capsules per day each containing 500 mg naproxen sodium) or placebo (containing starch) for five days along with the routine treatment that was nationally recommended for COVID-19 infection. Clinical symptoms of COVID-19 infection, the time to clinical improvement, blood pressure, laboratory parameters, and death due to COVID-19 infection were considered as the outcome variables in the present study.

RESULTS

Treatment with naproxen improved cough and shortness of breath in COVID-19 patients; such that, compared with placebo, naproxen intake was associated with 2.90 (95% CI: 1.10-7.66) and 2.82 (95% CI: 1.05-7.55) times more improvement in cough and shortness of breath, respectively. In addition, naproxen administration resulted in a significant increase in mean corpuscular volume (MCV) and had a preventive effect on the reduction of systolic blood pressure in COVID-19 patients.

CONCLUSION

Treatment with naproxen can improve cough and shortness of breath in COVID-19-infected patients. Further studies are required to confirm our findings.

Effectiveness of massage therapy on fatigue and pain in patients with multiple sclerosis: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Fatigue and pain are prevalent symptoms of multiple sclerosis (MS) and frequent complaint in MS patients, which reduce their quality of life. This study aimed to assess the effect of massage therapy on pain and fatigue in MS Patients.

Method

The original and Persian databases were searched included PubMed, web of science, embase, ovid, scopus, and the Cochrane Library, SID, and Iranedex from inception to November 2020. Studies that reported the effect of massage on fatigue and pain were included. Two investigators extracted all relevant data, independently. For deriving analysis, mean difference (MD) and standardized mean difference (SMD) were used.

Result

Ten studies were eligible acoording criteria. The effect of massage on fatigue showed significant improvement (-1.62; 95% CL -2.40, -0.83; p < .00001), also results of the systematic review showed a significant reduction in pain severity.

Conclusion

Massage as a complementary and non-pharmacological therapy might have been associated with alleviating fatigue and pain in M.S. patients. Based on the current study, massage intervention for MS patients could have possible clinical value for palliating pain and fatigue and improving quality of life; however, this matter needs further and more significant trial studies.

The impact of sofosbuvir/daclatasvir or ribavirin in patients with severe COVID-19

OBJECTIVES

Sofosbuvir and daclatasvir are direct-acting antivirals highly effective against hepatitis C virus. There is some in silico and in vitro evidence that suggests these agents may also be effective against SARS-CoV-2. This trial evaluated the effectiveness of sofosbuvir in combination with daclatasvir in treating patients with COVID-19.

METHODS

Patients with a positive nasopharyngeal swab for SARS-CoV-2 on RT-PCR or bilateral multi-lobar ground-glass opacity on their chest CT and signs of severe COVID-19 were included. Subjects were divided into two arms with one arm receiving ribavirin and the other receiving sofosbuvir/daclatasvir. All participants also received the recommended national standard treatment which, at that time, was lopinavir/ritonavir and single-dose hydroxychloroquine. The primary endpoint was time from starting the medication until discharge from hospital with secondary endpoints of duration of ICU stay and mortality.

RESULTS

Sixty-two subjects met the inclusion criteria, with 35 enrolled in the sofosbuvir/daclatasvir arm and 27 in the ribavirin arm. The median duration of stay was 5 days for the sofosbuvir/daclatasvir group and 9 days for the ribavirin group. The mortality in the sofosbuvir/daclatasvir group was 2/35 (6%) and 9/27 (33%) for the ribavirin group. The relative risk of death for patients treated with sofosbuvir/daclatasvir was 0.17 (95% CI 0.04-0.73, P = 0.02) and the number needed to treat for benefit was 3.6 (95% CI 2.1-12.1, P < 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Given these encouraging initial results, and the current lack of treatments proven to decrease mortality in COVID-19, further investigation in larger-scale trials seems warranted.

Inequality in the global incidence and prevalence of tuberculosis (TB) and TB/HIV according to the human development index

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) is one of the ten leading causes of death, especially in developing countries. We aimed to assess the inequality in the incidence and prevalence of TB and TB/HIV based on the human development index (HDI) globally.

Methods: In this ecological study, the data on the incidence and prevalence of TB, HIV, and TB/HIV co-infection in 168 countries were obtained from the World Health Organization (WHO). The HDI of these countries in 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015 was also obtained from the United Nations Development Program (UNDP). The concentration index was used to assess the inequality of the incidence and prevalence of TB and TB/HIV based on the HDI globally.

Results: The concentration index for the incidence of TB according to the HDI was -0.32 (95% CI: -0.46, -0.17), -0.36 (95% CI: -0.49, -0.23), -0.37 (95% CI: -0.52, -0.22), and -0.36 (-0.52, -0.21) in 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015, respectively. The same pattern was observed for the incidence and prevalence of TB/HIV. The results showed that TB and TB/HIV mainly concentrated in countries with a lower HDI.

Conclusion: According to the results of this study, the incidence of TB and TB/HIV and the prevalence of TB/HIV concentrated in the countries with a lower HDI. In addition, inequality in TB and HIV based on the HDI did not change from 2000 to 2015. Therefore, it seems that public health programs, especially in low-income countries, should be revised and the World Health Organization and the United Nations should provide more technical and financial help for these countries.

A Comparison between the Ability of Revised Trauma Score and Kampala Trauma Score in Predicting Mortality; a Meta-Analysis

INTRODUCTION

Describing injury severity in trauma patients is vital. In some recent articles the Revised Trauma Score (RTS) and Kampala Trauma Score (KTS) have been suggested as easily performed and feasible triage tools which can be used in resource-limited settings. The present meta-analysis was performed to evaluate and compare the accuracy of the RTS and KTS in predicting mortality in low-and middle income countries (LMICs).

METHODS

Two investigators searched the Web of Science, Embase, and Medline databases and the articles which their exact number of true-positive, true-negative, false-positive, and false-negative results could be extracted were selected. Sensitivity and subgroup analysis were performed using Stata software version 14 to determine the factor(s) affecting the accuracy of the RTS and KTS in predicting mortality and source(s) of heterogeneity.

RESULTS

The heterogeneity was high (I2 > 80%) among 11 relevant studies (total n = 20,631). While the sensitivity of the KTS (0.88) was slightly higher than RTS (0.82), the specificity, diagnostic odds ratio, negative likelihood ratio, and positive likelihood ratio of the KTS (0.73, 20, 0.16, 3.30, respectively) were lower than those of the RTS (0.91, 45, 0.20, 8.90, respectively). The area under the summary-receiver operator characteristic curve for KTS and RTS was 0.88 and 0.93, respectively.

CONCLUSION

However, regarding accuracy and performance, RTS was better than KTS for distinguishing between mortality and survival; both of them are beneficial trauma scoring tools which can be used in LMICs. Further studies are required to specify the appropriate choice of the RTS or KTS regarding the type of injury and different conditions of the patient.

Khuzestan dust phenomenon: a content analysis of most widely circulated newspapers

Dust is an atmospheric phenomenon that causes adverse environmental effects. It is deemed to have harmful effects on health, economics, and climate. This study aimed to analyze the content published on the phenomenon of dust in the widely circulated newspapers in Iran. We investigated the content of all national and provincial newspapers that were published between July and August 2014. Data on the materials related to the dust phenomenon in the newspapers were categorized and coded. From a total of 510 newspaper issues, 143 articles were devoted to the dust phenomenon which 74.1% of them were published in provincial newspapers. Among the national newspapers, Hamshahri newspaper with 16 headlines and from the provincial newspapers; Karoon with 23 headlines published the highest number of articles on dust phenomenon. 45.5% of content on dust were printed on the first page of the newspapers. The most common approach to the type of content published in these newspapers was an interview. Moreover, we noticed that 28.7% of the content published in the newspapers was related to the health issue. The media plays an important role in the transmission of health information. Weaknesses in addressing the causes of dust occurrence and also in providing solutions for the dust control and prevention were noticeable in the content published in the newspaper. It seems necessary to take practical measures to disseminate relevant information to dust and also address the needs of the target audience community influenced by the dust phenomenon properly.

Abstract T P133: Hot and Humid in Alabama: Atmospheric Parameters and Stroke Admissions

Background&Purpose: evidence is conflicting on the effects of atmospheric conditions on the incidence of acute ischemic stroke (AIS). Since acute stroke patients are often brought to hospitals in clusters, we sought to examine the correlation of local weather parameters with AIS admission rates in a region of the United States affected by wide fluctuations in temperature and humidity.

Subjects&Methods: Basic patient demographics, stroke severity and admission dates were collected from our prospectively collected registry of consecutive acute ischemic strokes at our tertiary center. Atmospheric temperature (°F) and humidity (%) levels were obtained for each month for 3 consecutive years (2010-2012) using http://weatherspark.com/averages publicly available data.

Results: A total of 2014 consecutive AIS patients were admitted (47% women, mean age 63±15 years, median NIHSS 5, IQR 8). Ischemic stroke admissions increased linearly with both minimum (r=0.52; p=0.001) and maximum (r=0.51; p=0.001) temperature increases. Maximum humidity levels were negatively correlated with AIS admissions throughout the year (r= - 0.39; p=0.010) while minimum humidity levels yield opposite correlation with IS admissions (r=0.43; p=0.007). There was no effect of age, gender or race on these correlations. When the different seasons were evaluated separately, the strongest correlation between lower humidity levels and IS admissions was noted during summer (r=0.474; p=0.197), while higher humidity levels appeared to correlate more strongly with hospital admissions during autumn (r= - 0.596; p=0.090).

Conclusions: our study showed that humidity levels and temperature rises may affect the number of acute ischemic stroke admissions in a humid subtropical climate. Non-random clustering of IS admissions during the year underscores a potential role for atmopsheric parameters in determining allocaton of resources to treat stroke.

Abstract W P54: Renal Impairment in African American Stroke Patients and the Risk of Symptomatic ICH With Systemic tPA

Background: Uremia is a bleeding risk in chronic kidney disease (CKD) that has a higher prevalence among African Americans (AA). Recent studies in predominantly Caucasian populations showed that impaired renal function did not increase the risk of symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (sICH) with intravenous tPA for acute ischemic stroke. We sought to determine if the risk of sICH is higher in AA patients with CKD at our institution.

Subjects & Methods: Consecutive patients who received intravenous thrombolysis at our comprehensive stroke center were retrospectively analyzed. Demographics, stroke severity, and instances of sICH were recorded. Renal function was assessed by creatinine clearance (CrCl) and estimated with the Cockcroft and Gault equation. CKD was defined as CrCl < 60. CrCl was further stratified into the following groups: 59 - 30, 29 - 15, and < 15 ml/min.

Results: We identified 236 patients with reported CrCl who received tPA at our institution (mean age 65+/-17 SD, 46% women, pre-treatment median NIHSS 5; IQR 8) and CKD was documented in 90/236 (38%) of all tPA-treated patients. AA patients comprised 36% (86/236) of the study population with 37 (43%) diagnosed with CKD, p=0.23 AA vs rest. Among all patients with CKD (n=90), 83% had CrCl between 59 - 30 ml/min, 9% had 29 - 15 ml/min and 8% had <15 ml/min CrCl range. sICH occurred in 2/90 (2.2%) of all patients with CKD (both in 30-59 ml/min group) compared to 4/146 (2.7%) without CKD (NS). sICH among AA patients with or without CKD was 2.7% and 2% respectively (NS).

Conclusions: Our data are consistent with previous studies that severe renal impairment did not result in higher risk of sICH since the enzymatic activity of tPA may be limited by uremia. Although limited by relatively small numbers, our analysis did not show an increased sICH risk due to any renal impairment or AA race.