Life expectancy associated with different ages at diagnosis of type 2 diabetes in high-income countries: 23 million person-years of observation

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of type 2 diabetes is increasing rapidly, particularly among younger age groups. Estimates suggest that people with diabetes die, on average, 6 years earlier than people without diabetes. We aimed to provide reliable estimates of the associations between age at diagnosis of diabetes and all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and reductions in life expectancy.

METHODS

For this observational study, we conducted a combined analysis of individual-participant data from 19 high-income countries using two large-scale data sources: the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (96 cohorts, median baseline years 1961-2007, median latest follow-up years 1980-2013) and the UK Biobank (median baseline year 2006, median latest follow-up year 2020). We calculated age-adjusted and sex-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause mortality according to age at diagnosis of diabetes using data from 1 515 718 participants, in whom deaths were recorded during 23·1 million person-years of follow-up. We estimated cumulative survival by applying age-specific HRs to age-specific death rates from 2015 for the USA and the EU.

FINDINGS

For participants with diabetes, we observed a linear dose-response association between earlier age at diagnosis and higher risk of all-cause mortality compared with participants without diabetes. HRs were 2·69 (95% CI 2·43-2·97) when diagnosed at 30-39 years, 2·26 (2·08-2·45) at 40-49 years, 1·84 (1·72-1·97) at 50-59 years, 1·57 (1·47-1·67) at 60-69 years, and 1·39 (1·29-1·51) at 70 years and older. HRs per decade of earlier diagnosis were similar for men and women. Using death rates from the USA, a 50-year-old individual with diabetes died on average 14 years earlier when diagnosed aged 30 years, 10 years earlier when diagnosed aged 40 years, or 6 years earlier when diagnosed aged 50 years than an individual without diabetes. Using EU death rates, the corresponding estimates were 13, 9, or 5 years earlier.

INTERPRETATION

Every decade of earlier diagnosis of diabetes was associated with about 3-4 years of lower life expectancy, highlighting the need to develop and implement interventions that prevent or delay the onset of diabetes and to intensify the treatment of risk factors among young adults diagnosed with diabetes.

FUNDING

British Heart Foundation, Medical Research Council, National Institute for Health and Care Research, and Health Data Research UK.

Association of socioeconomic status measures with physical activity and subsequent frailty in older adults

Funding Acknowledgements

Type of funding sources: None.

Background

Despite increased recognition, frailty remains a significant public health challenge.

Methods

Using a population-based cohort of older adults, this study examined the relationship between socioeconomic status (SES) factors, physical activity and frailty. The study included 1,799 participants (mean [SD], age 75[6]; 53% women) from the "National Health and Nutrition Survey of Older Adults Aged 65 and Over in Israel", conducted in 2005-2006. A follow-up interview was performed 12-14 years later in a subgroup of 601 subjects (mean [SD], age 84[4]; 56% women). Extensive data including self-reported leisure time physical activity (LTPA) and SES measures were assessed at baseline. Frailty was measured at follow-up.

Results

All SES measures were strongly and positively associated with LTPA (all p<0.001). Eighty-two participants (14%) were classified as frail at follow-up. After age and sex adjustment and accounting for attrition bias using inverse probability weighting, baseline LTPA (OR=2.77, 95% CI: 1.57-4.90, for inactivity; OR=1.41, 95% CI: 0.75-2.68, for insufficient activity, compared with sufficient activity, Ptrend<0.001) was inversely associated with incident frailty. The association persisted after further adjustment for SES and comorbidity.

Conclusion

Among older individuals, multiple SES measures were positively associated with LTPA, which was a strong predictor of lower subsequent frailty risk.

P4346Religious education and midlife observance are associated with lower coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality 23 years later

Objective

To determine whether self-reported religiosity is associated with decreased coronary mortality risk in middle-aged men when rates are adjusted for known confounders.

Design

The Israeli Ischemic Heart Disease (IIHD) Project (n=10,232) was chosen by stratified sampling of civil servants and municipal male employees, men aged 40–65 in 1963. Subjects were seen upon enrollment (1963) and at two follow-up visits (1965 and 1968). Extent of religiosity according to belief and practice collected in 1965 on a scale from 1 to 5. Religiosity was defined as follow: (1) The most-strict observance of religious rules “Haredim”. (2) “Religious” (3) “Traditional” (4) “Secular” (5) The part of the latter who declared themselves to be “nonbelievers” were categorized as “agnostic”.

Main outcome measure

Coronary heart disease (CHD) death, determined from death certificates in 23 years of follow-up

Results

Among 9245 participants, 1098 died from CHD during 23 years follow up. Ever smoking, Body mass index (BMI) and socioeconomic status were significantly lower while age and diabetes were higher according to increasing religiosity. Religiosity was inversely related to CHD mortality. Demographic, anthropometric characteristics according to religion, and odds ratio (OR), 95% confidence interval (95% CI), for CHD mortality, (using agnostic as a reference group) are presented in table 1.

Characteristics according to religion Religiosity Haredim (n=2103) Religious (n=1528) Traditional (n=1782) Secular (n=2085) Agnostic (n=1747) P for trend Age years (SD) 50.2 (6.9) 48.8 (6.6) 48.4 (6.7) 48.8 (6.6) 45.9 (6.8) <0.001 Ever smoking% 58.7 67.6 70.7 71.9 72.6 0.001 Systolic blood pressure (mmHg) 136 (21) 135 (20) 135 (21) 134 (20) 135 (20) 0.115 Diabetes (%) 9.8 11.1 8.3 8.8 6.5 <0.001 Socioeconomic status 2.2 (1.3) 2.3 (1.1) 2.7 (1.1) 2.7 (1.2) 3.1 (1.4) <0.001 BMI kg/m2 (SD) 22.5 (3.6) 25.9 (3.5) 25.9 (3.2) 25.6 (3.2) 25.4 (2.9) 0.028 Cholesterol (mg%) 201 (38) 207 (41) 208 (39) 214 (40) 218 (40) 0.001 Number of death (% category) 187 (8.9) 161 (10.5) 185 (10.4) 228 (10.9) 225 (12.9) <0.001 OR (95% CI)* 0.67 (0.53–0.85) 0.85 (0.67–1.08) 0.84 (0.67–1.05) 0.87 (0.71–1.08) 1 *Adjusted for age, cigarette smoking, systolic blood pressure, diabetes, socioeconomic status, body mass index and cholesterol.

Conclusion

Religiosity was associated with lower CHD death in employed middle aged Israeli men followed up prospectively for 23 years.

P6225Uric acid visit-by-visit variability is an independent risk factor of CHD - and all-cause mortality

Patients and methods

There were 10,059 men, aged 40–65, tenured civil servants and municipal employees in the territories of the three most populated urban areas. Of these, 8822 participated in three extensive examinations in 1963, 1965 and 1968 and underwent assessment of diabetes and coronary morbidity status. We conducted analysis examining whether the standard deviations of Z-scores of SUA (SUA-Z), across the three study visits, predicted fatal outcomes. SUA-Z was defined as the difference between the individual SUA and the mean of SUA, divided by the standard deviation (SD) for the pertinent examination, namely separately for the 1963, 1965 and 1968 means and SD. Hazard ratios (HR) associated with the SD of SUA-Z were calculated for 18-yr stroke and CHD mortality (1968 to 1986) and the 18-yr all-cause mortality associated with quartiles of the above variability. The lowest quartile served as the referent, adjusting for age. A subsequent model adjusted additionally for the baseline value of SUA as well as for baseline frequency of diabetes mellitus and coronary heart disease (CHD)

Results

Multivariate analysis of 18-yr CHD mortality (1968–1986, 906 deaths among 8822 men) yielded a significant association with the 1963–1968 SD of SUA-Z with age adjusted HR of CD mortality of 0.99, 1.12 and 1.43 for quartiles 2 to 4 respectively (P using Mantel trend test=0.0002). Further adjustment for baseline prevalence of diabetes and CHD somewhat decreased the above HR estimates to 0.98, 1.04 and 1.29, respectively, with a HR=1.15 (95% CI, 1.07–1.23) per 1 mg/Dl increment of the 1963 SUA serum level.

The results for the 18-yr all-cause mortality (2836 deaths, 1968–1986) strongly indicated increasing age-adjusted mortality risk with increasing SD of SUA-Z: HRs= 1.08 (95% CI,0.97–1.21), 1.15 (1.03–1.28), and 1.37 (1.23–1.51). No association was observed between the SD of SUA-Z and 18 years stroke mortality. Sensitivity analysis, incorporating the last (1968) SUA levels assessed, rather than the 1963 ones, yielded virtually identical HRs.

Conclusion

In this cohort of tenured male workers, with diverse occupation, higher variability of SUA measurement taken in 1963–5-8 were clearly predictive of 18-year CHD and all-cause mortality, above and beyond the SUA levels proper.

Sex-specific relevance of diabetes to occlusive vascular and other mortality: a collaborative meta-analysis of individual data from 980 793 adults from 68 prospective studies

BACKGROUND

Several studies have shown that diabetes confers a higher relative risk of vascular mortality among women than among men, but whether this increased relative risk in women exists across age groups and within defined levels of other risk factors is uncertain. We aimed to determine whether differences in established risk factors, such as blood pressure, BMI, smoking, and cholesterol, explain the higher relative risks of vascular mortality among women than among men.

METHODS

In our meta-analysis, we obtained individual participant-level data from studies included in the Prospective Studies Collaboration and the Asia Pacific Cohort Studies Collaboration that had obtained baseline information on age, sex, diabetes, total cholesterol, blood pressure, tobacco use, height, and weight. Data on causes of death were obtained from medical death certificates. We used Cox regression models to assess the relevance of diabetes (any type) to occlusive vascular mortality (ischaemic heart disease, ischaemic stroke, or other atherosclerotic deaths) by age, sex, and other major vascular risk factors, and to assess whether the associations of blood pressure, total cholesterol, and body-mass index (BMI) to occlusive vascular mortality are modified by diabetes.

RESULTS

Individual participant-level data were analysed from 980 793 adults. During 9·8 million person-years of follow-up, among participants aged between 35 and 89 years, 19 686 (25·6%) of 76 965 deaths were attributed to occlusive vascular disease. After controlling for major vascular risk factors, diabetes roughly doubled occlusive vascular mortality risk among men (death rate ratio [RR] 2·10, 95% CI 1·97-2·24) and tripled risk among women (3·00, 2·71-3·33; χ2 test for heterogeneity p<0·0001). For both sexes combined, the occlusive vascular death RRs were higher in younger individuals (aged 35-59 years: 2·60, 2·30-2·94) than in older individuals (aged 70-89 years: 2·01, 1·85-2·19; p=0·0001 for trend across age groups), and, across age groups, the death RRs were higher among women than among men. Therefore, women aged 35-59 years had the highest death RR across all age and sex groups (5·55, 4·15-7·44). However, since underlying confounder-adjusted occlusive vascular mortality rates at any age were higher in men than in women, the adjusted absolute excess occlusive vascular mortality associated with diabetes was similar for men and women. At ages 35-59 years, the excess absolute risk was 0·05% (95% CI 0·03-0·07) per year in women compared with 0·08% (0·05-0·10) per year in men; the corresponding excess at ages 70-89 years was 1·08% (0·84-1·32) per year in women and 0·91% (0·77-1·05) per year in men. Total cholesterol, blood pressure, and BMI each showed continuous log-linear associations with occlusive vascular mortality that were similar among individuals with and without diabetes across both sexes.

INTERPRETATION

Independent of other major vascular risk factors, diabetes substantially increased vascular risk in both men and women. Lifestyle changes to reduce smoking and obesity and use of cost-effective drugs that target major vascular risks (eg, statins and antihypertensive drugs) are important in both men and women with diabetes, but might not reduce the relative excess risk of occlusive vascular disease in women with diabetes, which remains unexplained.

FUNDING

UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, European Union BIOMED programme, and National Institute on Aging (US National Institutes of Health).

Analysis of Data Associated with Seemingly Temporal Clustering of a Rare Disease

Three statistical tests aimed at detecting temporal clustering within a given short series of diagnoses are presented. These tests are based on a standardized time interval between consecutive diagnoses. Two of the tests (the Cuscore and the Sets tests) are derived from sequential monitoring techniques which are sensitive to temporal clustering within the data set. The third test (R test) is not sequential and its sensitivity is focused on the average increase in the overall rate of the disease rather than on clustering within the series. Power curves are presented for conditions related to the intensity level of the subtle epidemic, the cluster size and the number of diagnoses. None of the techniques showed highest efficiency over all the specified conditions. The R test is the most efficient when the relative risk is 2 or less, and the Cuscore test is the most efficient method when the relative risk is ≥2.5.

The cardiovascular benefits of indiscriminate supplementation of omega-3 fatty acids; meta-analysis and decision-making approach

AIM

The meta-analysis was conducted to estimate of the cardiovascular benefits of indiscriminate supplementation of omega-3 capsules. The results, expressed in terms of quality adjusted life years (QALY) intuitively understood by the general public, can be the basis for the (personal) decision on whether to take omega-3 supplements.

METHODS

The results of meta-analysis of eight double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trials are expressed in terms of QALY, using the Markov model and Monte Carlo simulations.

RESULTS

Omega-3 supplementation results in a 8% decrease of the risk of cardiac death, unless the patients are treated by statins. Results indicate that omega-3 supplementation may prolong QALY by about a month. Old people gain less, whereas DM-2 patients and people with history of CV events gain more.

DISCUSSION

Our analysis yielded an algorithm for estimating benefit from omega-3 supplementation, based on the age and the individual risk of CV events of the patient.

Adolescents' physical activity habits--results from a national health survey

BACKGROUND

  The MABAT Youth National Health and Nutrition Survey was conducted in Israel by the Ministry of Health and the Center for Disease Control. This article presents results of physical activity (PA) habits in Israel, in relation to recommendations by world health organizations.

METHODS

  Participants were 6274 adolescents, grades 7-12, enrolled in a cross-sectional, representative, school-based survey. Sufficient level of PA was defined as any moderate and vigorous level of PA that adds up daily to 60 min/day. Light PA was considered to be an insufficient level of PA.

RESULTS

  Only 10.5% of the participants reported performing sufficient PA. Large gender differences were found, with 17.7% of boys versus only 4.6% of girls meeting the guidelines.

CONCLUSIONS

  Results highlight the need to develop programmes for school children in Israel to promote PA. Such programmes have been initiated in many countries that have a large percentage of adolescents with a sedentary lifestyle.

Adult-onset diabetes among Arabs and Jews in Israel: a population-based study

AIMS

To study the age at presentation and factors associated with adult-onset diabetes (≥ 20 years) among Arabs and Jews in Israel.

METHODS

Participants (n = 1100) were randomly selected from the urban population of the Hadera District in Israel. The study sample was stratified into equal groups according to sex, ethnicity (Arabs and Jews) and age. Information on age at diabetes presentation, family history of diabetes, history of gestational diabetes, socio-demographic and lifestyle characteristics was obtained through personal interviews. Self reports of diabetes were compared with medical records and were found reliable (κ = 0.87). The risk for diabetes was calculated using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. Factors associated with diabetes in both ethnic groups were studied using Cox proportional hazard model.

RESULTS

The prevalence of adult-onset diabetes was 21% among Arabs and 12% among Jews. Arab participants were younger than Jews at diabetes presentation. By the age of 57 years, 25% of Arabs had diagnosed diabetes; the corresponding age among Jews was 68 years, a difference of 11 years (P < 0.001). The greater risk for diabetes among Arabs was independent of lifestyle factors, family history of diabetes and, among women, history of gestational diabetes; adjusted hazard ratio 1.70; 95% confidence interval 1.19-2.43.

CONCLUSIONS

Arabs in Israel are at greater risk for adult-onset diabetes than Jews and are younger at diabetes presentation. Culturally sensitive interventions aimed at maintaining normal body weight and active lifestyle should be targeted at this population. Possible genetic factors and gene-environmental interactions underlying the high risk for diabetes among Arabs should be investigated.

Ethnic variations in acute ischemic stroke: findings from the National Acute Stroke Israeli Survey (NASIS)

BACKGROUND

We intended to determine ethnic differences in the characteristics, management and outcome of acute ischemic stroke between the Israeli Arab and Jewish populations.

METHODS

A national survey was conducted in 2004 at all 28 hospitals in Israel. Information on demographics, transportation, risk factors, clinical presentation, stroke severity, type and subtype, management and clinical outcome was obtained. Mortality during the 36 months after hospitalization was assessed by matching with national mortality data.

RESULTS

Of the 1,540 patients, 169 (11%) were Arabs and 1,371 (89%) were Jews. The mean age of Arab patients was 9 years younger than in Jewish patients (63 ± 11 vs. 72 ± 12 years). Also, Arabs were more likely to be obese (OR = 1.72; 95% CI: 1.19-2.50) and have diabetes (OR = 1.41; 95% CI: 1.01-1.96), while Jews were more likely to have dyslipidemia (OR = 1.56; 95% CI: 1.11-2.17). A greater percentage of the Arab patients arrived at the hospital independently (OR = 3.85; 95% CI: 2.56-5.56) and were less likely to arrive within 3 h of symptom onset (OR = 2.33; 95% CI: 1.39-3.85). Arabs suffered increased rates of lacunar stroke (OR = 1.67; 95% CI: 1.14-2.43) and were discharged home more often (OR = 2.40; 95% CI: 1.35-4.25). No differences in severity of stroke, management, complications, disability or mortality were found between the 2 groups.

CONCLUSIONS

The unique characteristics of the Arab and Jewish populations should be considered when planning stroke-care services and culturally oriented public education programs.

Nutritional recommendations for preventing coronary heart disease in women: evidence concerning whole foods and supplements

AIMS

Some food groups and supplements have been recommended for preventing coronary heart disease (CHD) in women. In this article, evidence on recommendations for some of these food groups (whole grains, fruits, vegetables, fish, nuts, and soy) and supplements (phytosterols, antioxidants, folic acid, and B-complex vitamins) is reviewed. Additionally, gender differences in nutritional requirements and recommendations are described.

DATA SYNTHESIS

Studies of nutrition in women and those emphasizing gender differences in nutritional requirements were selected for this review.

CONCLUSION

Observational data support the benefit of vegetables, fruits, and whole grains in CHD prevention. Trial data provide support for consuming fish at least twice a week, although women of childbearing age should limit their intake of fish that may contain high levels of mercury. Nuts are nutritious snacks but their caloric impact must be considered. Soy products do not affect low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) or CHD but may be beneficial in replacing high-fat meat. Foods supplemented with plant stanol/sterol-esters are recommended for reducing LDL-C. Antioxidant supplementation is not recommended for prevention of heart disease. A direct causal relationship between vitamin D deficiency and CHD has not been established. Homocysteine lowering through folic acid and B-complex vitamin supplementation has not been proven to improve CHD risk. More gender-specific analyses are needed to determine whether nutritional requirements differ between men and women.

Systematically missing confounders in individual participant data meta-analysis of observational cohort studies

One difficulty in performing meta-analyses of observational cohort studies is that the availability of confounders may vary between cohorts, so that some cohorts provide fully adjusted analyses while others only provide partially adjusted analyses. Commonly, analyses of the association between an exposure and disease either are restricted to cohorts with full confounder information, or use all cohorts but do not fully adjust for confounding. We propose using a bivariate random-effects meta-analysis model to use information from all available cohorts while still adjusting for all the potential confounders. Our method uses both the fully adjusted and the partially adjusted estimated effects in the cohorts with full confounder information, together with an estimate of their within-cohort correlation. The method is applied to estimate the association between fibrinogen level and coronary heart disease incidence using data from 154 012 participants in 31 cohorts.† Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Metabolic syndrome, diabetes mellitus, and the subsequent development of prostate cancer

5158

Background: The lifetime risk of an American man developing prostate cancer (PC) is one in six. Metabolic syndrome (MS) is a cluster of medical disorders (hypertension, dyslipidaemia, hyperglycaemia, obesity) associated with the subsequent development of diabetes mellitus (DM). DM and MS afflict 11% and 22% of US adults respectively. MS and DM are associated with disturbed lipid homeostasis, and hypogonadism. DM and MS predispose to the development of gastrointestinal and endometrial cancer. DM and MS's influence on PC is less clear; some studies have suggested that whereas DM inhibits PC, MS promotes PC development. Methods: The Bezafibrate Infarction Prevention study was a randomized trial of fibrate therapy for the secondary prevention of ischemic heart disease. Between 1990–2 15524 men and women with ischemic heart disease were screened, of whom 3090 entered the trial. 81% were male. Participants were divided into three groups according to baseline parameters: (A) those with neither MS nor DM, (B) those with MS but no DM, (C) those with DM (with or without MS). MS was defined according to ATPIII guidelines. DM was defined by medical history or fasting glucose > 125 mg/dL. Follow-up for PC incidence and all-cause mortality was obtained through the Israeli cancer registry and the Ministry of the Interior respectively. Analysis accounts for differences in age and non-cancer-related-mortality between groups. Ethics approval was obtained. Results: 1350 participants were excluded due to missing data or previous cancer diagnosis, leaving 11,541 men. Mean age at enrollment 61 years (45–74). Median follow-up was 12 years. There were 6119 (53%), 3,376 (29%), and 2,046 (18%) participants in groups A, B and C respectively. Overall there were 459 cases of PC; 298, 123 and 48 in groups A, B and C. The age adjusted PC rates were 4.30, 3.61 and 2.55 per 1,000 patient years in groups A, B and C respectively (A vs C p = 0.003). Data were also analyzed examining PC incidence as a function of ‘number of components of MS present’ after pooling groups A, B and C. Relative risk of developing PC was 1.00, 0.92, 0.90, 0.69, 0.71, and 0.33 for 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 components respectively. Conclusions: A baseline diagnosis of DM (highly significant) or MS (trend) was associated with a decreased prostate cancer rate over the subsequent 12 years.

No significant financial relationships to disclose.

The Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration: analysis of individual data on lipid, inflammatory and other markers in over 1.1 million participants in 104 prospective studies of cardiovascular diseases

Many long-term prospective studies have reported on associations of cardiovascular diseases with circulating lipid markers and/or inflammatory markers. Studies have not, however, generally been designed to provide reliable estimates under different circumstances and to correct for within-person variability. The Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration has established a central database on over 1.1 million participants from 104 prospective population-based studies, in which subsets have information on lipid and inflammatory markers, other characteristics, as well as major cardiovascular morbidity and cause-specific mortality. Information on repeat measurements on relevant characteristics has been collected in approximately 340,000 participants to enable estimation of and correction for within-person variability. Re-analysis of individual data will yield up to approximately 69,000 incident fatal or nonfatal first ever major cardiovascular outcomes recorded during about 11.7 million person years at risk. The primary analyses will involve age-specific regression models in people without known baseline cardiovascular disease in relation to fatal or nonfatal first ever coronary heart disease outcomes. This initiative will characterize more precisely and in greater detail than has previously been possible the shape and strength of the age- and sex-specific associations of several lipid and inflammatory markers with incident coronary heart disease outcomes (and, secondarily, with other incident cardiovascular outcomes) under a wide range of circumstances. It will, therefore, help to determine to what extent such associations are independent from possible confounding factors and to what extent such markers (separately and in combination) provide incremental predictive value.

C-Reactive Protein Distribution and Correlates among Men and Women with Chronic Coronary Heart Disease

BACKGROUND

C-reactive protein (CRP) elevated in inflammation is associated with atherosclerotic disease. We describe the distribution of CRP and its association with coronary heart disease (CHD) risk factors in a large CHD patient group.

METHODS

This analysis comprises 2,723 male and 256 female CHD patients, included in the Bezafibrate Infarction Prevention (BIP) study. High sensitive CRP levels were determined in frozen plasma samples.

RESULTS

CRP distribution, was normalized upon log transformation. Levels among women were higher than in men in the entire group (4.4 vs. 3.5 mg/l) and in each age group. Co-morbidities, smoking, lower education level, and use of cardiovascular drugs, were associated with elevated CRP levels in both sexes. The correlation between CRP and body mass index (BMI), insulin and glucose was stronger among women. The explained variability in CRP level was larger in women (20%) compared to men (13%). Among women, BMI explained 10% of CRP variability, whereas the contribution of each variable among men was significantly smaller.

CONCLUSIONS

Among men and women with CHD, CRP level was correlated with traditional risk factors and to a lesser degree to manifestation of CHD. BMI is the main contributor to CRP variability, explained by these factors among women.

Plasma fibrinogen level and the risk of major cardiovascular diseases and nonvascular mortality: an individual participant meta-analysis

CONTEXT

Plasma fibrinogen levels may be associated with the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the relationships of fibrinogen levels with risk of major vascular and with risk of nonvascular outcomes based on individual participant data.

DATA SOURCES

Relevant studies were identified by computer-assisted searches, hand searches of reference lists, and personal communication with relevant investigators.

STUDY SELECTION

All identified prospective studies were included with information available on baseline fibrinogen levels and details of subsequent major vascular morbidity and/or cause-specific mortality during at least 1 year of follow-up. Studies were excluded if they recruited participants on the basis of having had a previous history of cardiovascular disease; participants with known preexisting CHD or stroke were excluded.

DATA EXTRACTION

Individual records were provided on each of 154,211 participants in 31 prospective studies. During 1.38 million person-years of follow-up, there were 6944 first nonfatal myocardial infarctions or stroke events and 13,210 deaths. Cause-specific mortality was generally available. Analyses involved proportional hazards modeling with adjustment for confounding by known cardiovascular risk factors and for regression dilution bias.

DATA SYNTHESIS

Within each age group considered (40-59, 60-69, and > or =70 years), there was an approximately log-linear association with usual fibrinogen level for the risk of any CHD, any stroke, other vascular (eg, non-CHD, nonstroke) mortality, and nonvascular mortality. There was no evidence of a threshold within the range of usual fibrinogen level studied at any age. The age- and sex- adjusted hazard ratio per 1-g/L increase in usual fibrinogen level for CHD was 2.42 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.24-2.60); stroke, 2.06 (95% CI, 1.83-2.33); other vascular mortality, 2.76 (95% CI, 2.28-3.35); and nonvascular mortality, 2.03 (95% CI, 1.90-2.18). The hazard ratios for CHD and stroke were reduced to about 1.8 after further adjustment for measured values of several established vascular risk factors. In a subset of 7011 participants with available C-reactive protein values, the findings for CHD were essentially unchanged following additional adjustment for C-reactive protein. The associations of fibrinogen level with CHD or stroke did not differ substantially according to sex, smoking, blood pressure, blood lipid levels, or several features of study design.

CONCLUSIONS

In this large individual participant meta-analysis, moderately strong associations were found between usual plasma fibrinogen level and the risks of CHD, stroke, other vascular mortality, and nonvascular mortality in a wide range of circumstances in healthy middle-aged adults. Assessment of any causal relevance of elevated fibrinogen levels to disease requires additional research.

Diabetes mellitus in midlife and the risk of dementia three decades later

OBJECTIVE

To examine the association between diabetes in midlife (1963-1968) and dementia more than three decades later (1999-2001).

METHODS

The authors characterized dementia using standard methods for 1,892 participants among 2,606 survivors of 10,059 participants in the Israeli Ischemic Heart Disease study, a longitudinal investigation of the incidence of and risk factors for cardiovascular disease among Jewish male civil servants in Israel. Face to face interviews were conducted with the 652 subjects identified as possibly demented by the Modified Telephone Interview for Cognitive Status. Logistic regression analysis was performed to assess the association of diabetes with dementia controlling for sociodemographic and cardiovascular variables compared to those with no cognitive impairment.

RESULTS

Of 1,892 assessed subjects (mean age 82 at assessment), 309 (16.3%) had dementia. Diabetic subjects had significantly more dementia than non-diabetic subjects (chi2 = 7.54, df = 1, p = 0.006, OR 2.83 [95% CI = 1.40 to 5.71]). Those who survived to the time of this study were younger and healthier than those who died.

CONCLUSIONS

Evidence for diabetes as a risk factor for dementia was found, similar to other epidemiologic studies. In contrast to the earlier studies, however, the authors linked diabetes in midlife to dementia more than three decades later in the very old survivors of a large male cohort.

Relation Between the Metabolic Syndrome and Ischemic Stroke or Transient Ischemic Attack

Background and Purpose— The combination of risk factors known as the metabolic syndrome is receiving increased attention, but prospective data on the syndrome’s association with ischemic cerebrovascular events are scarce. We explored the relation of metabolic syndrome versus frank diabetes with first-ever ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA) in a large cohort of patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease.

Methods— Patients with coronary heart disease, screened for a clinical trial, underwent an extensive medical evaluation and follow-up for cerebrovascular disease over 4.8 to 8.1 years. National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III criteria were used to define the metabolic syndrome, with body mass index substituted for waist circumference. Patients with previously diagnosed diabetes or with a fasting plasma glucose level >125 mg/dL (≥7.0 mmol/L) were considered diabetic.

Results— The study sample comprised 14 284 patients, of which 3703 (26%) fulfilled the criteria for the metabolic syndrome without diabetes and 3500 others (25%) the criteria for diabetes. Adjusting for stroke risk factors, patients with the metabolic syndrome without diabetes exhibited a 1.49-fold increased odds for ischemic stroke or TIA (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.20 to 1.84), whereas those with frank diabetes had a 2.29-fold increased odds (95% CI, 1.88 to 2.78). The relative odds for ischemic stroke or TIA, associated with presence of the metabolic syndrome per se, were 1.39 (95% CI, 1.10 to 1.77) in men but 2.10 (95% CI, 1.26 to 3.51) in women. Although all components of the metabolic syndrome were associated with increased risk for ischemic stroke or TIA, impaired fasting glucose and hypertension were the strongest predictors of risk.

Conclusions— The presence of the metabolic syndrome, even without diabetes, in patients with pre-existing atherosclerotic vascular disease identifies patients at increased risk for ischemic stroke or TIA. The suggestion of more pronounced risk associated with the metabolic syndrome in women deserves further assessment in other cohorts.

Secular decrease in blood pressure and reduction in mortality from cardiovascular disease in Israeli workers

The reasons for the dramatic reduction in age-adjusted mortality from cardiovascular disease (CVD) since the 1970s in developed countries remain uncertain. In the following study we compare the cardiovascular and all-cause mortality rates over an 11-year period in two well-defined employed male cohorts aged 40-69 years old recruited 24 years apart. Blood pressure and other risk markers for CVD were assessed at the time of inception (1963 for 10 048 male civil servants and 1985-1987 for 2237 male industrial workers). Compared to the 1987 cohort, the 1963 cohort show an increase of 8.7 mmHg in the mean systolic blood pressure (SBP) (95% confidence interval (CI): 7.7, 9.6) and a concomitant hazard ratio for CVD mortality of 1.47 (95% CI: 1.16, 1.87). After adding SBP to the analysis, the hazard ratio for CVD mortality in the 1963 cohort decreased to 1.18 (95% CI: 0.88, 1.43). Adding the other risk modifiers to the analysis did not modify the hazard ratio to the same extent. Similar results were obtained for all-cause mortality. We conclude that declining blood pressure values are a major factor in explaining the secular decrease in CVD mortality over a period of 24 years in Israel.

Blood lipids and first-ever ischemic stroke/transient ischemic attack in the Bezafibrate Infarction Prevention (BIP) Registry: high triglycerides constitute an independent risk factor

BACKGROUND

Despite unclear associations between blood lipids, including fractionated cholesterol and triglycerides, and stroke, recent evidence demonstrates that lipid-modifying agents decrease the risk of stroke in patients with coronary heart disease (CHD).

METHODS AND RESULTS

Patients with documented CHD who were screened for but not included in the Bezafibrate Infarction Prevention study and had no history of stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA) (n=11 177) were followed up. At baseline, medical histories were obtained and blood lipids assessed at a central study laboratory. During a 6- to 8-year follow-up period, 941 patients were identified as having nonhemorrhagic cerebrovascular disease, of whom 487 had verified ischemic stroke (per clinical findings and brain CT) or TIA. Patients experiencing an ischemic stroke/TIA had higher mean levels of triglycerides, lower levels of HDL cholesterol, and lower percentages of cholesterol contained in the HDL cholesterol moiety (%HDL; P<0.01 for all). In a logistic regression model, the adjusted ORs for developing an ischemic stroke/TIA were 1.27 (95% CI 1.01 to 1.60) associated with triglycerides >200 mg/dL and 0.87 (95% CI 0.78 to 0.97) associated with a 5% decrease in %HDL. The increased risk associated with high triglycerides was found across subgroups of age, sex, patient characteristics, and cholesterol fractions.

CONCLUSIONS

High triglycerides constitute an independent risk factor for ischemic stroke/TIA across subgroups of age, sex, patient characteristics, and cholesterol fractions, whereas high %HDL was an independent protective factor among patients with CHD. These findings support the role of blood lipids, including triglycerides, as important modifiable stroke risk factors.

Antihypertensive Therapy in Diabetic Hypertensive Patients

BACKGROUND

We analyzed the available data to assess the benefits of antihypertensive therapy in hypertensive patients with diabetes mellitus.

PROCEDURE

A MEDLINE search of English-language articles published until June 1999 was undertaken using the terms diabetes mellitus, hypertension or blood pressure (BP), and therapy. Included were only prospective randomized studies of more than 12 months' duration that evaluated the effect of drug treatment on morbidity and mortality in diabetic hypertensive patients.

RESULTS

The coexistence of diabetes mellitus doubled the risk of cardiovascular events, cardiovascular mortality, and total mortality in hypertensive patients (approximate relative risk of 1.73 to 2.77 for cardiovascular events, 2.25 to 3.66 for cardiovascular mortality, and 1.73 to 2.18 for total mortality). Intensive BP control to levels lower than 130/85 mm Hg was beneficial in diabetic hypertensive patients. All four drug classes--diuretics, beta-blockers, angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors, and calcium antagonists--were effective in reducing cardiovascular events in diabetic hypertensive patients. In elderly diabetic patients with isolated systolic hypertension, calcium antagonists reduced the rate of cardiac end points by 63%, stroke by 73%, and total mortality by 55%. In more than 60% of diabetic hypertensive patients, combination therapy was required to control BP.

CONCLUSIONS

Intensive control of BP reduced cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in diabetic patients regardless of whether low-dose diuretics, beta-blockers, angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors, or calcium antagonists were used as a first-line treatment. Combination of more than one drug is frequently required to control BP and may be more beneficial than monotherapy.

A prospective study of plasma fibrinogen levels and the risk of stroke among participants in the bezafibrate infarction prevention study

PURPOSE

Plasma fibrinogen has emerged as an important predictor of cardiovascular disease, but few data are available on its association with stroke. We sought to determine if plasma fibrinogen is a marker of increased risk or a direct causative risk factor for stroke.

SUBJECTS AND METHODS

Patients from the Bezafibrate Infarction Prevention Study, a placebo-controlled, randomized clinical trial of secondary prevention of coronary heart disease by lipid modification with bezafibrate retard (400 mg daily), were studied. Plasma fibrinogen levels were measured at baseline and yearly thereafter. Stroke, a prospectively monitored endpoint, was systematically assessed regarding stroke type, subtype, and functional outcome.

RESULTS

Mean baseline fibrinogen levels were significantly higher in patients subsequently having a cerebrovascular event (140 strokes, 36 transient ischemic attacks; mean follow-up, 6.2 years) than in patients who did not (375 vs. 349 mg/dL, P <0.0001). Fibrinogen levels did not differ significantly by the type, subtype, or severity of the cerebrovascular event. Risk of ischemic stroke increased from 3.3% in the lowest tertile (baseline fibrinogen <314 mg/dL) to 7.% in the middle tertile (fibrinogen 314 to 373 mg/dL) to 10% in the upper tertile (fibrinogen >373 mg/dL, P <0.001). Adjusting for age, blood pressure, and other covariates, fibrinogen levels in the upper tertile were associated with more than a twofold increase in risk of ischemic stroke compared with in the lowest tertile (hazard ratio = 2.6; 95% confidence interval: 1.5 to 4.3). We did not find fibrinogen change from baseline to be related to subsequent ischemic stroke events.

CONCLUSION

Plasma fibrinogen is a strong predictor of, rather than a direct causative factor for, subsequent stroke among patients at increased risk owing to manifest coronary heart disease.

Meta-analyses of antihypertensive therapy: Are some of them misleading?

Meta-analysis has become a very popular tool to compare the efficacy of different antihypertensive regimens. Combining results from various outcome studies may provide evidence to guide the therapeutic approach even before results from large prospective studies are available. However, meta-analysis may be misleading if it is not done meticulously. Some meta-analyses that received broad news media coverage in the recent years were misleading. One analysis suggested that the use of short-acting nifedipine in moderate to high doses in patients with coronary disease increased mortality. This claim was refuted later by observational studies. Based on another meta-analysis, it was claimed that diuretics and beta-blockers are equally effective in reducing cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Another more careful meta-analysis, omitting one study in which most patients were on combination therapy and not on beta-blocker monotherapy, showed the superiority of diuretic versus b-blocker treatment in the elderly. Calcium antagonists were recently blamed for increasing the rate of myocardial infarction and congestive heart failure in hypertensive patients, and therefore their use was not recommended as first-line therapy in hypertension. This recommendation was based on a meta-analysis subject to major drawbacks and was misleading. Another notion based on meta-analysis was that angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors reduce left ventricular mass more than diuretics. This notion was refuted by three large randomized studies. A recent meta-analysis, which showed a similar blood pressure lowering effect for all angiotensin receptor blockers, was refuted by head-to-head studies. Thus, when performed correctly, meta-analysis can be an important tool, but when uncritically employed, it is prone to be misleading.

Antihypertensive therapy and the risk of malignancies

AIMS

To assess the relationship between antihypertensive therapy and malignancy.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A MEDLINE search for English-language articles published between January 1966 and August 1999 identified 29 prospective studies that reported cancer incidence or mortality and 28 case-control studies that reported specific drug use in cancer patients and controls. The association between rauwolfia derivatives and breast cancer was analysed in 5852 cases and 9776 controls, yielding an odds ratio (OR) of 1.25 (95% CI, 1.09-1.44). The association between diuretics and renal cell carcinoma was analysed in 4389 cases and 6566 controls, yielding a pooled OR of 1.54 (95% CI, 1.41-1.68). The association between atenolol and cancer death was analysed pooling three randomized controlled studies, including 1879 treated patients and 3078 non-treated patients, yielding a pooled OR of 1.36 (95% CI, 1.02-1.82); however, data from non-randomized studies did not confirm the latter. The association between calcium antagonists and malignancy was analysed pooling five randomized controlled studies, including 5451 treated patients and 5207 untreated ones, yielding a pooled OR of 0.78 (CI, 0.60-1.00). A meta-analysis of an additional five longitudinal studies, including 9087 treated patients and 15 559 non-treated patients, yielded a pooled OR of 1.04 (CI, 0.91-1.19). The association between ACE inhibitors and malignancy was analysed pooling two randomized controlled trials involving 1585 treated patients and 1567 non-treated patients, yielding a pooled OR of 1.57 (95% CI, 0.97-2.57); however, non-randomized studies showed no association or a decreased risk for malignancy with ACE inhibitors.

CONCLUSIONS

With the exception of diuretics and renal cell carcinoma, the association between antihypertensive drugs and malignancy was either low grade (rauwolfia), uncertain (atenolol), absent (ACE inhibitors), or absent with a yet to be investigated inverse association (calcium antagonists). Ongoing long-term prospective studies with cardiovascular drugs should carefully monitor the risk of malignancy.

Long-term mortality rates reflect progressive prognostic benefits of thrombolysis in patients with first acute myocardial infarction

This community nonrandomized study comprised a consecutive cohort of 1,545 (81% males) < or = 65-year-old patients who survived a first acute myocardial infarction (AMI). The all-cause 4- to 5-year mortality rate was 9% (80% cardiac). Univariate analysis revealed that older age, female gender, hypertension, diabetes, not undergoing thrombolysis, higher Killip class, preinfarction heart disease, peripheral vascular disease (PVD) and chronic obstructive lung disease (COLD) were significantly associated with increased mortality. Multivariate analyses disclosed the latter five parameters as being independent predictors of mortality. Our results show that patients undergoing thrombolysis enjoyed a progressive prognostic benefit over time. The independent contribution of PVD and COLD to long-term mortality is highlighted, in addition to the contribution of thrombolytic therapy, Killip class, and heart disease prior to infarction as being important predictors of long-term mortality in patients with a first AMI.

Prognosis of patients with a recurrent acute myocardial infarction before and in the reperfusion era--a national study

BACKGROUND

Patients with recurrent acute myocardial infarction (AMI) are at increased risk for morbidity and mortality. We compared the outcome of patients with recurrent AMI hospitalized in coronary care units in the prereperfusion and reperfusion eras.

METHODS

The study population comprised 2 large-scale cohorts with recurrent AMI: (1) 1415 (24%) of 5839 consecutive patients with AMI hospitalized in 1981 to 1983 (Secondary Prevention Reinfarction Israeli Nifedipine Trial [SPRINT] Registry) and (2) 1093 (25%) of 4317 patients with AMI from three national surveys performed in 1992 to 1996.

RESULTS

Patients in the 1990s had significantly lower rates of heart failure and cardiogenic shock. The 7-day mortality declined from 18% in 1981-1983 to 10% in 1992-1996 (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 0.57 [0.44-0.75]), the 30-day mortality rate from 26% to 16% (OR 0.56 [0.44-0.71]), and the 1-year mortality rate from 39% to 26% (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0.64 [0.54-0.75]), respectively. In the 1992-1996 cohort, the adjusted risk of 7-day, 30-day, and 1-year mortality for patients with recurrent AMI treated with thrombolysis in comparison to patients without thrombolysis was OR 1.69 (1.07-2.65), 1.52 (1.03-2.23), and HR 1.18 (0.90-1.55), respectively. The mortality rate among patients treated with early percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty/coronary artery bypass grafting was 3% versus 12% at 7 days (OR 0.36 [0.16-0.73]), 7% versus 18% at 30 days (OR 0.45 [0.25-0.77]), and 16% versus 29% at 1 year (HR 0.64 [0.46-0.96]), in comparison to patients without revascularization.

CONCLUSION

The prognosis of patients with recurrent AMI improved significantly during the reperfusion era. Although thrombolysis may have a limited therapeutic effect among patients with recurrent AMI, an interventional approach seems more appropriate when indicated. A randomized trial of thrombolysis versus early revascularization is needed in patients with recurrent AMI.

Emergency room referral to internal medicine wards or to coronary care units of patients with first acute myocardial infarction. Israel Study Group on First Acute Myocardial Infarction

The objective of the study was to assess factors associated with ward assignment in the emergency room for patients < or = 65 years old with first acute myocardial infarction. We analysed uni- and multivariate predictors for ward assignment (coronary care unit versus internal ward). Eight major centrally located Israeli hospitals provided data during one year. The study population included 1252 patients, of whom 83% were men, 37% were hypertensives, 22% were diabetics, and 14% had previous anginal syndrome. Most patients (83%) were admitted to the coronary care unit. Internal medicine ward assignment was significantly associated with advanced age, history of hypertension or diabetes, a longer time from appearance of symptoms to arrival at the hospital, and myocardial infarction type (non-Q-wave or non-anterior). The likelihood of medical ward referral increased stepwise with the increasing number of a patient's predictive factors: those with > or = 4 factors had a > 30% chance of being assigned to a medical ward compared to a < 10% chance when there were 0-3 risk factors. Exclusion of patients with thrombolysis had no effect on the results. The shortage of cardiac care unit beds apparently leads to emergency room selection acting in detriment of patients with poorest prognoses. Clear guidelines for decision making in the emergency room are needed to resolve this paradoxical situation.

Selectively increased risk of cancer in men with coronary heart disease

Cancer incidence was assessed among a cohort of 10,923 male coronary patients in Israel screened for participation in a secondary prevention trial and compared with national cancer incidence rates. Higher total and age-specific incidence rates of cancer were observed among male coronary patients than among the Israeli male population, but this excess was limited to cancers of the lung, bladder, and colon.

Possible interaction between aspirin and ACE inhibitors: update on unresolved controversy

The widespread use of aspirin and angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors in patients with coronary artery disease contributes significantly to the reduction in morbidity and mortality from this common health problem. These agents are widely and concomitantly used, and they share mechanisms that may interact in negative or positive pathways. Data derived from in vitro preparations, animal studies, human studies, and case-control studies are inconsistent. No study has established firm evidence regarding the safety or adverse effect of aspirin on patients who are on ACE inhibitors. The efficacy and safety of aspirin in combination with ACE inhibitors has been questioned and debated. If a negative interaction does exist, it will affect daily practice in treating patients with coronary artery disease and heart failure. This article reviews the available data regarding the safety of combined aspirin and ACE-inhibitor treatment among patients with ischemic heart disease, to assess the possible interaction between the two drugs and to discuss the significance and implications of the data. (c)2000 by CHF, Inc.

High blood pressure and diabetes mellitus: are all antihypertensive drugs created equal?

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the available data to assess the benefits of antihypertensive therapy in hypertensive patients with diabetes mellitus.

METHODS

A MEDLINE search of English-language articles published until June 1999 was undertaken with the use of the terms diabetes mellitus, hypertension or blood pressure, and therapy. Pertinent articles cited in the identified reports were also reviewed. Included were only prospective randomized studies of more than 12 months' duration that evaluated the effect of drug treatment on morbidity and mortality in diabetic hypertensive patients. We estimated the risk associated with combination of diabetes mellitus and hypertension and the effect of treatment on morbidity and mortality.

RESULTS

The coexistence of diabetes mellitus doubled the risk of cardiovascular events, cardiovascular mortality, and total mortality in hypertensive patients (approximate relative risk of 1.73-2.77 for cardiovascular events, 2.25-3.66 for cardiovascular mortality, and 1.73-2.18 for total mortality). Intensive blood pressure control to levels lower than 130/85 mm Hg was beneficial in diabetic hypertensive patients. All 4 drug classes-diuretics, beta-blockers, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, and calcium antagonists-were effective in reducing cardiovascular events in diabetic hypertensive patients. In elderly diabetic patients with isolated systolic hypertension, calcium antagonists reduced the rate of cardiac end points by 63%, stroke by 73%, and total mortality by 55%. In more than 60% of diabetic hypertensive patients, combination therapy was required to control blood pressure.

CONCLUSIONS

Intensive control of blood pressure reduced cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in diabetic patients regardless of whether low-dose diuretics, beta-blockers, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, or calcium antagonists were used as a first-line treatment. A combination of more than 1 drug is frequently required to control blood pressure and may be more beneficial than monotherapy.

Mortality trends in men and women with acute myocardial infarction in coronary care units in Israel. A comparison between 1981-1983 and 1992-1994. For the SPRINT and the Israeli Thrombolytic Survey Groups

AIMS

To assess trends in the management and subsequent outcome in men and women in two cohorts of consecutive patients with acute myocardial infarction hospitalized in coronary care units in Israel, in the pre-reperfusion and the reperfusion eras.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We compared trends in the in-hospital management, and 30-day and 1-year mortality in men and women in two cohorts of patients hospitalized with acute myocardial infarction in coronary care units in Israel, in the pre-reperfusion and the reperfusion eras. The first cohort of 5839 consecutive patients (4315 men, 74%) was from the Secondary Prevention Reinfarction Israeli Nifedipine Trial (SPRINT) registry of 1981-1983; the second cohort of 1940 patients (1429 males, 74%) derived from two prospective nationwide surveys conducted in all coronary care units in Israel in January/February 1992 and 1994. The demographic and clinical characteristics of patients with acute myocardial infarction in both periods were comparable. Patients in 1992-94 received aspirin, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, beta-blockers and nitrates more frequently than in 1981-83. Thrombolysis, coronary angiography, angioplasty and bypass grafting were not used in 1981-83, whereas in 1992-94 these procedures were used in 45%, 28%, 11% and 4% of men, respectively, and in 39%, 20%, 9% and 3% of women, respectively. The 30-day age-adjusted mortality declined, in men, from 17.0% in 1981-83 to 10.8% in 1992-94 (multivariate-adjusted odds ratio [OR]=0. 69; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.55 to 0.87), and the cumulative 1-year age-adjusted mortality declined from 24.6% to 16.9% (adjusted hazard ratio [HR]=0.70%; 95% CI 0.60 to 0.81). In women, the decline in mortality rates were of similar magnitude, from 24.0% to 15.1% (OR=0.70; 95% CI 0.52 to 0.94), and from 33.6% to 21.0% (HR=0.67; 95% CI 0.55 to 0.81), respectively. In both sexes, the decline in mortality was more marked in patients reperfused by thrombolysis and/or mechanical revascularization, but was also evident in non-reperfused patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite higher mortality in both periods in women compared to men, the prognosis of men and women with acute myocardial infarction improved considerably during the last decade, with a similar decline in 1-year mortality of approximately 30%. The implementation in daily practice of new therapeutic modalities proven to be effective in clinical trials after acute myocardial infarction, probably played a major role in this favourable outcome in both sexes.

Antihyperglycemic treatment in diabetics with coronary disease: increased metformin-associated mortality over a 5-year follow-up

Mortality rates are considerably higher in chronic ischemic heart disease (IHD) patients with non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (NIDDM) than in those who are nondiabetics. The relationship between different types of antihyperglycemic pharmacological therapy and mortality rate in this NIDDM population is uncertain. We aimed to examine the survival in NIDDM patients with IHD using various types of oral antidiabetic treatments over a 5-year follow-up period. The study sample comprised 11,440 patients with a previous myocardial infarction and/or stable anginal syndrome, aged 45-74 years, who were screened, but not included in the Bezafibrate Infarction Prevention study. Among them, 9,045 were nondiabetics and 2,395 diabetics. The diabetic patients were divided into four groups on the basis of their therapeutic regimen at screening: diet alone (n = 990), sulfonylureas (n = 1,041), metformin (n = 78) and a combination of a sulfonylurea and metformin (n = 266). All NIDDM groups were similar with regard to age, gender, hypertension, smoking, heart failure, angina and prior myocardial infarction. Crude mortality rate was lower in the nondiabetic group (11.21 vs. 21.8%; p < 0.001). In the diabetic group, mortality was 18.5% for patients on diet alone, 22.5% for those on sulfonylureas, 25.6% for patients on metformin, and 31.6% for the combined sulfonylurea/metformin group (p < 0.01). When analyzing age-adjusted mortality rate and actuarial survival curves, the lowest mortality was found in patients on diet alone and the highest in patients on metformin (alone or in combination with sulfonylureas). After adjustment for variables connected with long-term prognosis, the use of metformin was associated with increased relative risk (RR) for all-cause mortality of 1.42 (95% CI 1.10-1.85), whereas the use of sulfonylureas alone was not [RR 1.11 (95% CI 0.90-1.36)]. NIDDM patients with IHD using metformin, alone or in combination with sulfonylureas, exhibited a significantly increased mortality. Until the results of problem-oriented prospective studies on oral control of NIDDM will be available, alternative therapeutic approaches should be investigated in these patients.

Elevated serum triglyceride levels and long-term mortality in patients with coronary heart disease: the Bezafibrate Infarction Prevention (BIP) Registry

BACKGROUND

The association between elevated blood triglyceride levels and subsequent mortality risk in patients with established coronary heart disease (CHD) has been investigated rarely. The aim of the present study was to investigate this association.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We evaluated mortality over a mean follow-up time of 5. 1 years among 9033 male and 2499 female CHD patients who were screened for participation in the Bezafibrate Infarction Prevention (BIP) Study. A stepwise increase in mortality with increasing serum triglyceride levels was observed in patients with desirable or elevated serum total cholesterol levels and in patients with either desirable or abnormally low HDL cholesterol levels. Multivariate adjustment for factors other than HDL cholesterol yielded a slightly increased adjusted mortality risk with a 1-natural-log-unit elevation of triglyceride levels in men (hazard ratio [HR] 1.14, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.30) and women (HR 1.37, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.88). Excess covariate-adjusted risk was noted among patients with elevated total and LDL cholesterol and in women with HDL cholesterol levels >45 mg/dL. After additional adjustment for HDL cholesterol, the risk of mortality with a 1-natural-log-unit elevation of triglycerides declined in men (HR 1.09, 95% CI 0.94 to 1.26) and in women (HR 1.10, 95% CI 0.80 to 1.50). A trend for increased mortality risk remained in patients with elevated total and LDL cholesterol and in women with HDL cholesterol >45 mg/dL.

CONCLUSIONS

Elevated triglyceride levels were associated with a small, independent increased mortality risk in CHD patients. This risk may be increased among subgroups of patients with elevated total cholesterol and LDL cholesterol levels.

Prevalence and prognostic significance of unrecognized systemic hypertension in patients with diabetes mellitus and healed myocardial infarction and/or stable angina pectoris

Few data are available regarding the prevalence and prognostic significance of the triple coexistence of undiagnosed systemic hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and coronary heart disease. This study aimed to evaluate the prevalence and prognostic significance of unrecognized hypertension in cardiac diabetic patients previously defined as "normotensives" over a 5-year follow-up period. The study sample comprised 11,515 patients aged 45 to 74 years with a previous myocardial infarction and/or anginal syndrome who were screened but not included in the Bezafibrate Infarction Prevention study. Among them, 9,033 were nondiabetics and 2,482, diabetics. The diabetics were divided into 3 groups: (1) 1,272 normotensives, (2) 152 patients without history of hypertension but with elevated blood pressure ("unrecognized hypertensives"), and (3) 1,058 hypertensives with established diagnosis. The prevalence of both diagnosed and unrecognized hypertension in diabetics pooled together increased from 49% to 69% when World Health Organization and new Joint National Committee-VI criteria were compared. Crude all-cause mortality was lower in nondiabetics than in diabetics (11.2% vs 22.0%; p <0.001). Among diabetics the lowest all-cause mortality was documented for normotensives (19.3%), whereas the highest mortality was observed in unrecognized hypertensives (26.3%, p = 0.003). Both unrecognized and established hypertensives demonstrated a significant stroke-related mortality excess: about four- and threefold increases in cerebrovascular accident-related death, respectively, were observed (p = 0.002). On multivariate analysis, both unrecognized and diagnosed hypertension were consistent predictors of increased all-cause mortality, with a hazard ratio of 1.28 (95% confidence interval 0.90 to 1.82) and 1.24 (95% confidence interval 1.03 to 1.49), respectively. Our findings demonstrate widespread undiagnosed hypertension in diabetic coronary patients; their 5-year mortality was significantly increased compared with normotensives, and tended to be even higher than in diabetics previously identified as hypertensives.

Aspirin and mortality in patients treated with angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors: a cohort study of 11,575 patients with coronary artery disease

OBJECTIVES

The purpose of this study was to investigate the significance of the possible negative interaction between aspirin and angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors.

BACKGROUND

Several provocative reports have recently suggested that aspirin is unsafe in patients with heart failure and has negative interaction with ACE inhibitors that might attenuate their beneficial effects upon survival.

METHODS

We analyzed mortality data of 11,575 patients with coronary artery disease screened for the Bezafibrate Infarction Prevention trial. A total of 1,247 patients (11%) were treated with ACE inhibitors. Of them, 618 patients (50%) used aspirin.

RESULTS

Five-year mortality was lower among patients on ACE inhibitors and aspirin than patients on ACE inhibitors without aspirin (19% vs. 27%; p < 0.001). After adjusting for confounders, treatment with aspirin and ACE inhibitors remained associated with lower mortality risk than using ACE inhibitors only (relative risk [RR] = 0.71; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.56 to 0.91). Subgroup analysis of 464 patients with congestive heart failure treated with ACE inhibitors revealed 221 patients (48%) on aspirin and 243 patients not on aspirin. Although clinical characteristics and therapy were similar, patients taking aspirin experienced lower mortality than patients who did not (24% vs. 34%; p = 0.001). After adjustment, treatment with aspirin was still associated with lower mortality (RR = 0.70; 95% CI = 0.49 to 0.99).

CONCLUSIONS

Among coronary artery disease patients with and without heart failure who are treated with ACE inhibitors, the use of aspirin was associated with lower mortality than treatment without aspirin. Our findings contradict the claim that aspirin attenuates the beneficial effect of ACE inhibitors and supports its use in patients with coronary artery disease treated with ACE inhibitors.

Carcinogenicity of cardiovascular drugs

Antihypertensive treatment may promote cancer through unknown mechanisms. Early retrospective studies implicated reserpine in breast cancer, but the drug was later absolved by prospective analyses. Data from case-controlled studies and several cohort studies suggested an association between the use of a diuretic and the occurrence of renal cell cancer. Several prospective studies showed that treatment with atenolol may increase mortality from malignancy. However, other studies that analyzed data from several thousand patients could not confirm this association. In two prospective studies, angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors were associated with increased mortality from malignancy, but a few case-controlled studies showed no association between use of ACE inhibitors and malignancy. In addition, a recent retrospective study showed that long-term use of ACE inhibitors had a protective effect against malignancy. In some studies, calcium antagonists were implicated in increasing the risk for cancer; however, two large case-controlled studies and the combined data from nine observational studies showed a similar risk for malignancy among users and nonusers of a calcium antagonist. Ongoing long-term prospective studies will tell us more about the carcinogenicity of cardiovascular drugs.

Does diuretic therapy increase the risk of renal cell carcinoma?

Several studies have suggested that systemic hypertension as a disease or its therapy could increase the risk for malignancies. Diuretics reduce cardiovascular morbidity and mortality and constitute a cornerstone in the antihypertensive arsenal. To analyze the relation between diuretic therapy and the risk of malignancies, we conducted a comprehensive review of pertinent previous publications by searching the MEDLINE database for related articles in all languages published between January 1966 and April 1998. Within the past decade, we found 9 case control studies and 3 cohort studies in which the relation between diuretic use and renal cell carcinoma was examined. In the case control studies, the odds ratio of renal cell carcinoma occurring in patients treated with diuretics averaged 1.55 with a 95% confidence interval of 1.42 to 1.71 (p <0.00001) compared with nonusers of diuretics. In the 3 cohort studies of 1,226,229 patients, diuretic therapy was associated with a more than twofold risk of renal cell carcinoma when compared with patients not on diuretics. In 1 cohort study, and in the 7 case control studies in which the effects of gender were reported, women had a higher odds ratio (2.01, confidence interval 1.56 to 2.67) than men (1.69 confidence interval 1.34 to 2.13). Thus, cumulative evidence, possibly stronger in women than in men, suggests that the long-term use of diuretics may be associated with renal cell carcinoma. Although diuretics remain the best documented drug class to reduce morbidity and mortality in systemic hypertension, our data suggest a need for continued vigilance to assess the risk-benefit ratio of all drugs used for long-term therapy of cardiovascular disorders.

Hypertension in diet versus pharmacologically treated diabetics: mortality over a 5-year follow-up

The natural history of non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (NIDDM) differs markedly between patients with diet treated and pharmacologically treated disease. However, the interrelationship between hypertension and these common diabetes types has not been specifically addressed in previous studies. This study was designed to evaluate the prognostic significance and prevalence of hypertension in coronary patients with diet versus pharmacologically treated NIDDM over a 5-year follow-up period. The study sample comprised 11 515 patients aged 45 to 74 years with a previous myocardial infarction and/or anginal syndrome who had been screened but were not included in the Bezafibrate Infarction Prevention study. Among them, 9033 were nondiabetics and 2482, diabetics (987 diet treated and 1495 pharmacologically treated). The prevalence of hypertension among nondiabetics, diet-treated diabetics, and pharmacologically treated diabetics was 31%, 42%, and 43%, respectively. Crude all-cause mortality (CM) was lower in the nondiabetic patients (11.2% versus 22.0%; P<0.001). Among diabetics, 548 patients died: 81 diet treated normotensives (CM 14%); 100 diet-treated hypertensives (CM 24.4%); 205 pharmacologically treated normotensives (CM 24.2%); and 162 pharmacologically treated hypertensive patients (CM 25.0%). Age-adjusted mortality was lowest for the normotensive patients in the diet-treated group and highest for the hypertensive pharmacologically treated patients. Multivariate analysis shows that hypertension is a strong and independent predictor of increased CM in diet-treated but not in pharmacologically treated NIDDM: hazard ratio (HR) was 1.68 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.24 to 2.29) for the diet-treated versus 1. 01 (95% CI 0.82 to 1.26) for the pharmacologically treated diabetics. The contribution of hypertension to stroke mortality was substantial for both diet treated and pharmacologically treated NIDDM: hazard ratios were 3.17 (95% CI 1.12 to 8.98) and 2.21 (95% CI 0.72 to 6.77), respectively. The increased risk of mortality associated with hypertension in relatively mild diet-treated NIDDM strongly supports the clinical benefit of early blood pressure control among diabetic patients with ischemic heart disease.

Are coronary patients at higher risk with digoxin therapy? An ongoing controversy

Previous reports have yielded contradictory conclusions regarding the safety of digoxin therapy in patients with acute myocardial infarction. The purpose of our study was to determine whether digoxin therapy is associated with increased mortality in patients with chronic coronary artery disease. We analyzed data from 8173 patients who were screened for participation in the Bezafibrate Infarction Prevention (BIP) trial and who survived an acute myocardial infarction at least 6 months prior to the study. Three-year overall mortality of the 451 (15.5%) patients receiving digoxin (according to the judgement of their treating physician) at the time of screening for BIP participation, was 22.4% compared to 8.3% in the patients who did not receive digoxin. Cardiac mortality was 16.2% in the digoxin-treated group, compared to 4.9% in the non-treated patients. The increased risk associated with digoxin remained statistically significant when patients were stratified according to sex, age groups, functional capacity and the presence of hypertension, diabetes or angina. The administration of digoxin to survivors of an acute myocardial infarction in the chronic phase of their disease, is statistically associated with a 30-50% increase in the risk of overall and cardiac mortality during long-term follow-up. A propensity of increased risk of arrhythmias in ischemic coronary patients may explain this finding.

Prognostic significance of cerebrovascular disease in 11,526 chronic coronary artery disease patients. Bezafibrate Infarction Prevention (BIP) Study Group

Patients with chronic CAD and a history of cerebrovascular events were compared with patients without prior cerebrovascular events to assess the effect of these events on 5-year prognosis. Despite adjustment for older age and higher comorbidity among patients who had experienced a cerebrovascular event, a history of such an event was associated with an increased risk of 1.86 for total mortality.