SARS-CoV-2 antibody dynamics in blood donors and COVID-19 epidemiology in eight Brazilian state capitals: A serial cross-sectional study

Background

The COVID-19 situation in Brazil is complex due to large differences in the shape and size of regional epidemics. Understanding these patterns is crucial to understand future outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 or other respiratory pathogens in the country.

Methods

We tested 97,950 blood donation samples for IgG antibodies from March 2020 to March 2021 in 8 of Brazil's most populous cities. Residential postal codes were used to obtain representative samples. Weekly age- and sex-specific seroprevalence were estimated by correcting the crude seroprevalence by test sensitivity, specificity, and antibody waning.

Results

The inferred attack rate of SARS-CoV-2 in December 2020, before the Gamma variant of concern (VOC) was dominant, ranged from 19.3% (95% credible interval [CrI] 17.5-21.2%) in Curitiba to 75.0% (95% CrI 70.8-80.3%) in Manaus. Seroprevalence was consistently smaller in women and donors older than 55 years. The age-specific infection fatality rate (IFR) differed between cities and consistently increased with age. The infection hospitalisation rate increased significantly during the Gamma-dominated second wave in Manaus, suggesting increased morbidity of the Gamma VOC compared to previous variants circulating in Manaus. The higher disease penetrance associated with the health system's collapse increased the overall IFR by a minimum factor of 2.91 (95% CrI 2.43-3.53).

Conclusions

These results highlight the utility of blood donor serosurveillance to track epidemic maturity and demonstrate demographic and spatial heterogeneity in SARS-CoV-2 spread.

Funding

This work was supported by Itaú Unibanco 'Todos pela Saude' program; FAPESP (grants 18/14389-0, 2019/21585-0); Wellcome Trust and Royal Society Sir Henry Dale Fellowship 204311/Z/16/Z; the Gates Foundation (INV- 034540 and INV-034652); REDS-IV-P (grant HHSN268201100007I); the UK Medical Research Council (MR/S0195/1, MR/V038109/1); CAPES; CNPq (304714/2018-6); Fundação Faculdade de Medicina; Programa Inova Fiocruz-CE/Funcap - Edital 01/2020 Number: FIO-0167-00065.01.00/20 SPU N°06531047/2020; JBS - Fazer o bem faz bem.

Predicting SARS-CoV-2 Variant Spread in a Completely Seropositive Population Using Semi-Quantitative Antibody Measurements in Blood Donors

SARS-CoV-2 serologic surveys estimate the proportion of the population with antibodies against historical variants, which nears 100% in many settings. New approaches are required to fully exploit serosurvey data. Using a SARS-CoV-2 anti-Spike (S) protein chemiluminescent microparticle assay, we attained a semi-quantitative measurement of population IgG titers in serial cross-sectional monthly samples of blood donations across seven Brazilian state capitals (March 2021−November 2021). Using an ecological analysis, we assessed the contributions of prior attack rate and vaccination to antibody titer. We compared anti-S titer across the seven cities during the growth phase of the Delta variant and used this to predict the resulting age-standardized incidence of severe COVID-19 cases. We tested ~780 samples per month, per location. Seroprevalence rose to >95% across all seven capitals by November 2021. Driven by vaccination, mean antibody titer increased 16-fold over the study, with the greatest increases occurring in cities with the highest prior attack rates. Mean anti-S IgG was strongly correlated (adjusted R2 = 0.89) with the number of severe cases caused by Delta. Semi-quantitative anti-S antibody titers are informative about prior exposure and vaccination coverage and may also indicate the potential impact of future SARS-CoV-2 variants.

Culicoides spp. found near Lusitano stud farms in mainland Portugal which may contribute for IBH studies

Insect Bite Hypersensitivity (IBH) is a common cutaneous disease, affecting a large number of horses worldwide. Several studies have identified Culicoides spp. saliva as a clinically relevant allergen source. The prevalence of IBH in Portugal, particularly in Lusitano horses, is still not known. However, the environmental characteristics of the national territory are favorable to the activity of Culicoides, and several species of this genus can be found, namely C. imicola and C. obsoletus/C. scoticus. In this study we characterized the Culicoides population present in Lusitano stud farms with a history of IBH. Thirteen stud farms with Lusitano horses were selected in several regions of mainland Portugal for having a previous history of IBH-affected horses, with a minimum of 5 affected horses. Culicoides were collected in May and June 2016 using OVI traps, placed in these stud farms, and we were able to identify several Culicoides species. We could also verify that C. obsoletus/C. scoticus, and C. imicola were the ones most frequently found, but other species like C. pulicaris were also found.

Distinct chromatin structures at the monoamine oxidase-A promoter correlate with allele-specific expression in SH-SY5Y cells

Monoamine oxidase-A (MAOA) metabolises monoamines and is implicated in the pathophysiology of psychiatric disorders. A polymorphic repetitive DNA domain, termed the uVNTR (upstream variable number tandem repeat), located at the promoter of the MAOA gene is a risk factor for many of these disorders. MAOA is on the X chromosome suggesting gender could play a role in regulation. We analysed MAOA regulation in the human female cell line, SH-SY5Y, which is polymorphic for the uVNTR. This heterozygosity allowed us to correlate allele-specific gene expression with allele-specific transcription factor binding and epigenetic marks for MAOA. Gene regulation was analysed under basal conditions and in response to the mood stabiliser sodium valproate. Both alleles were transcriptionally active under basal growth conditions; however, the alleles showed distinct transcription factor binding and epigenetic marks at their respective promoters. Exposure of the cells to sodium valproate resulted in differential allelic expression which correlated with allele-specific changes in distinct transcription factor binding and epigenetic marks at the region encompassing the uVNTR. Biochemically our model for MAOA promoter function has implications for gender differences in gene × environment responses in which the uVNTR has been implicated as a genetic risk.

A TOMM40 poly-T variant modulates gene expression and is associated with vocabulary ability and decline in nonpathologic aging

The Translocase of Outer Mitochondrial Membrane 40 Homolog and Apolipoprotein E (TOMM40-APOE) locus has been associated with a number of age-related phenotypes in humans including nonpathologic cognitive aging, late-onset Alzheimer's disease, and longevity. Here, we investigate the influence of the TOMM40 intron 6 poly-T variant (rs10524523) on TOMM40 gene expression and cognitive abilities and decline in a cohort of 1613 community-dwelling elderly volunteers who had been followed for changes in cognitive functioning over a period of 14 years (range = 12-18 years). We showed that the shorter length poly-T variants were found to act as a repressor of luciferase gene expression in reporter gene constructs. Expression was reduced to approximately half of that observed for the very long variant. We further observed that the shorter poly-T variant was significantly associated with reduced vocabulary ability and a slower rate of vocabulary decline with age compared to the very long poly-T variants. No significant associations were observed for memory, fluid intelligence or processing speed, although the direction of effect, where the short variant was correlated with reduced ability and slower rate of decline was observed for all tests. Our results indicate that the poly-T variant has the ability to interact with transcription machinery and differentially modulate reporter gene expression and influence vocabulary ability and decline with age.