Quantifying climate sensitivity and climate-driven change in North American amphibian communities

Changing climate will impact species' ranges only when environmental variability directly impacts the demography of local populations. However, measurement of demographic responses to climate change has largely been limited to single species and locations. Here we show that amphibian communities are responsive to climatic variability, using >500,000 time-series observations for 81 species across 86 North American study areas. The effect of climate on local colonization and persistence probabilities varies among eco-regions and depends on local climate, species life-histories, and taxonomic classification. We found that local species richness is most sensitive to changes in water availability during breeding and changes in winter conditions. Based on the relationships we measure, recent changes in climate cannot explain why local species richness of North American amphibians has rapidly declined. However, changing climate does explain why some populations are declining faster than others. Our results provide important insights into how amphibians respond to climate and a general framework for measuring climate impacts on species richness.

Multi-year data from satellite- and ground-based sensors show details and scale matter in assessing climate's effects on wetland surface water, amphibians, and landscape conditions

Long-term, interdisciplinary studies of relations between climate and ecological conditions on wetland-upland landscapes have been lacking, especially studies integrated across scales meaningful for adaptive resource management. We collected data in situ at individual wetlands, and via satellite for surrounding 4-km² landscape blocks, to assess relations between annual weather dynamics, snow duration, phenology, wetland surface-water availability, amphibian presence and calling activity, greenness, and evapotranspiration in four U.S. conservation areas from 2008 to 2012. Amid recent decades of relatively warm growing seasons, 2012 and 2010 were the first and second warmest seasons, respectively, dating back to 1895. Accordingly, we observed the earliest starts of springtime biological activity during those two years. In all years, early-season amphibians first called soon after daily mean air temperatures were ≥ 0°C and snow had mostly melted. Similarly, satellite-based indicators suggested seasonal leaf-out happened soon after snowmelt and temperature thresholds for plant growth had occurred. Daily fluctuations in weather and water levels were related to amphibian calling activity, including decoupling the timing of the onset of calling at the start of season from the onset of calling events later in the season. Within-season variation in temperature and precipitation also was related to vegetation greenness and evapotranspiration, but more at monthly and seasonal scales. Wetland water levels were moderately to strongly associated with precipitation and early or intermittent wetland drying likely reduced amphibian reproduction success in some years, even though Pseudacris crucifer occupied sites at consistently high levels. Notably, satellite-based indicators of landscape water availability did not suggest such consequential, intra-seasonal variability in wetland surface-water availability. Our cross-disciplinary data show how temperature and precipitation interacted to affect key ecological relations and outcomes on our study landscapes. These results demonstrate the value of multi-year studies and the importance of scale for understanding actual climate-related effects in these areas.

Challenges in Complementing Data from Ground-Based Sensors with Satellite-Derived Products to Measure Ecological Changes in Relation to Climate-Lessons from Temperate Wetland-Upland Landscapes

Assessing climate-related ecological changes across spatiotemporal scales meaningful to resource managers is challenging because no one method reliably produces essential data at both fine and broad scales. We recently confronted such challenges while integrating data from ground- and satellite-based sensors for an assessment of four wetland-rich study areas in the U.S. Midwest. We examined relations between temperature and precipitation and a set of variables measured on the ground at individual wetlands and another set measured via satellite sensors within surrounding 4 km² landscape blocks. At the block scale, we used evapotranspiration and vegetation greenness as remotely sensed proxies for water availability and to estimate seasonal photosynthetic activity. We used sensors on the ground to coincidentally measure surface-water availability and amphibian calling activity at individual wetlands within blocks. Responses of landscape blocks generally paralleled changes in conditions measured on the ground, but the latter were more dynamic, and changes in ecological conditions on the ground that were critical for biota were not always apparent in measurements of related parameters in blocks. Here, we evaluate the effectiveness of decisions and assumptions we made in applying the remotely sensed data for the assessment and the value of integrating observations across scales, sensors, and disciplines.

Indicators of the statuses of amphibian populations and their potential for exposure to atrazine in four midwestern U.S. conservation areas

Extensive corn production in the midwestern United States has physically eliminated or fragmented vast areas of historical amphibian habitat. Midwestern corn farmers also apply large quantities of fertilizers and herbicides, which can cause direct and indirect effects on amphibians. Limited field research regarding the statuses of midwestern amphibian populations near areas of corn production has left resource managers, conservation planners, and other stakeholders needing more information to improve conservation strategies and management plans. We repeatedly sampled amphibians in wetlands in four conservation areas along a gradient of proximity to corn production in Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin from 2002 to 2005 and estimated site occupancy. We measured frequencies of gross physical deformities in recent metamorphs and triazine concentrations in the water at breeding sites. We also measured trematode infection rates in kidneys of recently metamorphosed Lithobates pipiens collected from nine wetlands in 2003 and 2004. We detected all possible amphibian species in each study area. The amount of nearby row crops was limited in importance as a covariate for estimating site occupancy. We observed deformities in <5% of metamorphs sampled and proportions were not associated with triazine concentrations. Trematode infections were high in metamorphs from all sites we sampled, but not associated with site triazine concentrations, except perhaps for a subset of sites sampled in both years. We detected triazines more often and in higher concentrations in breeding wetlands closer to corn production. Triazine concentrations increased in floodplain wetlands as water levels rose after rainfall and were similar among lotic and lentic sites. Overall, our results suggest amphibian populations were not faring differently among these four conservation areas, regardless of their proximity to corn production, and that the ecological dynamics of atrazine exposure were complex.

Increased ultraviolet sensitivity and chromosomal instability related to P53 function in the xeroderma pigmentosum variant

The xeroderma pigmentosum (XP) variant (XPV) is a form of XP that has normal excision repair but shows defective DNA replication after UV irradiation. In developing various transformed fibroblast cell lines from these patients, we have found that there are significant phenotypic changes in transformed cells that seem to correlate with inactivation of p53. After transformation with SV40, XPV cell lines are only slightly UV sensitive, like their primary counterparts, but their sensitization with caffeine and the induction of sister chromatid exchanges (SCEs) by UV irradiation are greatly enhanced. After transformation by HPV16 E7, which targets the retinoblastoma cell cycle regulatory gene, there is no change in the UV sensitivity of XPV cells; but, when transformed by HPV16 E6 or E6 and E7 combined, there is a large increase in UV sensitivity and in the induction of SCEs. These changes are not associated with any detectable changes in the reactivation of an externally irradiated luciferase expression vector, the excision of cyclobutane pyrimidine dimers from bulk DNA, or unscheduled DNA synthesis and, therefore, do not involve excision repair. We suggest that if SCEs represent homologous recombination between sister chromatids, then in the absence of p53 function, the DNA chain arrest typical of UV-damaged XPV cells initiates strand exchange during recovery. In untransformed cells with normal p53, the preferred mode of recovery would then be replication bypass. The symptoms of elevated solar carcinogenesis in XPV patients may, therefore, be associated with increased genomic instability in cells of the skin in which p53 is inactivated by UV-induced mutations.

Genetic and molecular ecotoxicology: a research framework

Participants at the Napa Conference on Genetic and Molecular Ecotoxicology assessed the status of this field in light of heightened concerns about the genetic effects of exposure to hazardous substances and recent advancements in our capabilities to measure those effects. We present here a synthesis of the ideas discussed throughout the conference, including definitions of important concepts in the field and critical research needs and opportunities. While there were many opinions expressed on these topics, there was general agreement that there are substantive new opportunities to improve the impact of genetic and molecular ecotoxicology on prediction of sublethal effects of exposure to hazardous substances. Future studies should emphasize integration of genetic ecotoxicology, ecological genetics, and molecular biology and should be directed toward improving our understanding of the ecological implications of genotoxic responses. Ecological implications may be assessed at either the population or ecosystem level; however, a population-level focus may be most pragmatic. Recent technical advancements in measuring genetic and molecular responses to toxicant exposure will spur rapid progress. These new techniques have considerable promise for increasing our understanding of both mechanisms of toxicity on genes or gene products and the relevance of detrimental effects to individual fitness.