Target and actual sample sizes for studies from two trial registries from 1999 to 2020: an observational study

Objectives

To investigate differences between target and actual sample sizes, and what study characteristics were associated with sample sizes.

Design

Observational study.

Setting

The large trial registries of clinicaltrials.gov (starting in 1999) and ANZCTR (starting in 2005) through to 2021.

Participants

Over 280 000 interventional studies excluding studies that were withheld, terminated for safety reasons or were expanded access.

Main outcome measures

The actual and target sample sizes, and the within-study ratio of the actual to target sample size.

Results

Most studies were small: the median actual sample sizes in the two databases were 60 and 52. There was a decrease over time in the target sample size of 9%–10% per 5 years, and a larger decrease of 18%–21% per 5 years for the actual sample size. The actual-to-target sample size ratio was 4.1% lower per 5 years, meaning more studies (on average) failed to hit their target sample size.

Conclusion

Registered studies are more often under-recruited than over-recruited and worryingly both target and actual sample sizes appear to have decreased over time, as has the within-study gap between the target and actual sample size. Declining sample sizes and ongoing concerns about underpowered studies mean more research is needed into barriers and facilitators for improving recruitment and accessing data.

Design and rationale of the COVID-19 Critical Care Consortium international, multicentre, observational study

INTRODUCTION

There is a paucity of data that can be used to guide the management of critically ill patients with COVID-19. In response, a research and data-sharing collaborative-The COVID-19 Critical Care Consortium-has been assembled to harness the cumulative experience of intensive care units (ICUs) worldwide. The resulting observational study provides a platform to rapidly disseminate detailed data and insights crucial to improving outcomes.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This is an international, multicentre, observational study of patients with confirmed or suspected SARS-CoV-2 infection admitted to ICUs. This is an evolving, open-ended study that commenced on 1 January 2020 and currently includes >350 sites in over 48 countries. The study enrols patients at the time of ICU admission and follows them to the time of death, hospital discharge or 28 days post-ICU admission, whichever occurs last. Key data, collected via an electronic case report form devised in collaboration with the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infection Consortium/Short Period Incidence Study of Severe Acute Respiratory Illness networks, include: patient demographic data and risk factors, clinical features, severity of illness and respiratory failure, need for non-invasive and/or mechanical ventilation and/or extracorporeal membrane oxygenation and associated complications, as well as data on adjunctive therapies.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Local principal investigators will ensure that the study adheres to all relevant national regulations, and that the necessary approvals are in place before a site may contribute data. In jurisdictions where a waiver of consent is deemed insufficient, prospective, representative or retrospective consent will be obtained, as appropriate. A web-based dashboard has been developed to provide relevant data and descriptive statistics to international collaborators in real-time. It is anticipated that, following study completion, all de-identified data will be made open access.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ACTRN12620000421932 (http://anzctr.org.au/ACTRN12620000421932.aspx).

Examination of CIs in health and medical journals from 1976 to 2019: an observational study

OBJECTIVES

Previous research has shown clear biases in the distribution of published p values, with an excess below the 0.05 threshold due to a combination of p-hacking and publication bias. We aimed to examine the bias for statistical significance using published confidence intervals.

DESIGN

Observational study.

SETTING

Papers published in Medline since 1976.

PARTICIPANTS

Over 968 000 confidence intervals extracted from abstracts and over 350 000 intervals extracted from the full-text.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Cumulative distributions of lower and upper confidence interval limits for ratio estimates.

RESULTS

We found an excess of statistically significant results with a glut of lower intervals just above one and upper intervals just below 1. These excesses have not improved in recent years. The excesses did not appear in a set of over 100 000 confidence intervals that were not subject to p-hacking or publication bias.

CONCLUSIONS

The huge excesses of published confidence intervals that are just below the statistically significant threshold are not statistically plausible. Large improvements in research practice are needed to provide more results that better reflect the truth.

Seasonal temperature patterns and durations of acceptable temperature range in houses in Brisbane, Australia

A paradigm shift to the use of indoor rather than outdoor temperature to estimate the exposure risk of low and high temperatures is vital for better prediction of temperature health effects and timely health warnings, and will also assist in understanding the influence of temperature on energy consumption and comfort. This study aimed to quantify the percentage of hours during the year that indoor temperature (living room) was in the extended comfort band (18-28 °C) of a subtropical climate, and identify the diurnal pattern of indoor temperatures in different seasons. Data used was collected in a previous study on the association between indoor and outdoor temperature. A k-shape cluster analysis resulted in two clusters of indoor temperature patterns for both weekdays and weekends. A bimodal pattern was identified during the cool season and a flat top pattern for the warm season, with many variations at weekends. These patterns can be attributed to the influence of cooling and heating processes depending on the season as well as occupancy, occupants' interference, and building materials. During the intermediate season, a sinusoidal pattern was observed for both weekdays and weekends because occupants likely relied on outdoor temperature conditions which were similar to those expected indoors without heating or cooling devices. The percentage of hours in which the indoor temperature of the houses ranged within the extended comfort band was 72-97% throughout the year, but for the coldest and hottest months it was 50-75%. These findings show that Brisbane residents are at possible risk of exposure to cold and hot temperatures due to the poor thermal performance of houses, and confirm that there is no standard indoor temperature pattern for all houses.

Cohort study of a specialist social worker intervention on hospital use for patients at risk of long stay

BACKGROUND

Long-stay patients in acute hospitals commonly present with complex psychosocial needs and use high levels of hospital resources.

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether a specialist social worker-led model of care was associated with a reduction in length of stay for medically stable patients with complex psychosocial needs who were at risk of long stay, and to determine the economic value of this model relative to the decision makers' willingness to pay for bed days released.

DESIGN

A prospective, matched cohort study with historical controls.

SETTING

A large, tertiary teaching and referral hospital in metropolitan Southeast Queensland, Australia.

METHODS

Length of hospital stay for a cohort of patients seen under the specialist social worker-led model of care was compared with a matched control group of patients admitted to the hospital prior to the introduction of the new model of care using a multistate model with the social worker model of care as an intermediate event. Costs associated with the model of care were calculated and an estimate of the 'cost per bed day' was produced.

RESULTS

The model of care reduced mean length of stay by 33 days. This translated to 9999 bed days released over 12 months. The cost to achieve this was estimated to be $A229 000 over 12 months. The cost per bed day released was $23, which is below estimates of hospital decision makers' willingness to pay for a bed day to be released for an alternate use.

CONCLUSIONS

The specialist social worker-led model of care was associated with a reduced length of stay at a relatively low cost. This is likely to represent a cost-effective use of hospital resources. The limitations of our historic control cohort selection mean that results should be interpreted with caution. Further research is needed to confirm these findings.

Using Microsimulation to Estimate the Future Health and Economic Costs of Salmonellosis under Climate Change in Central Queensland, Australia

BACKGROUND

The incidence of salmonellosis, a costly foodborne disease, is rising in Australia. Salmonellosis increases during high temperatures and rainfall, and future incidence is likely to rise under climate change. Allocating funding to preventative strategies would be best informed by accurate estimates of salmonellosis costs under climate change and by knowing which population subgroups will be most affected.

OBJECTIVE

We used microsimulation models to estimate the health and economic costs of salmonellosis in Central Queensland under climate change between 2016 and 2036 to inform preventative strategies.

METHODS

We projected the entire population of Central Queensland to 2036 by simulating births, deaths, and migration, and salmonellosis and two resultant conditions, reactive arthritis and postinfectious irritable bowel syndrome. We estimated salmonellosis risks and costs under baseline conditions and under projected climate conditions for Queensland under the A1FI emissions scenario using composite projections from 6 global climate models (warm with reduced rainfall). We estimated the resulting costs based on direct medical expenditures combined with the value of lost quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) based on willingness-to-pay.

RESULTS

Estimated costs of salmonellosis between 2016 and 2036 increased from 456.0 QALYs (95% CI: 440.3, 473.1) and AUD29,900,000 million (95% CI: AUD28,900,000, AUD31,600,000), assuming no climate change, to 485.9 QALYs (95% CI: 469.6, 503.5) and AUD31,900,000 (95% CI: AUD30,800,000, AUD33,000,000) under the climate change scenario.

CONCLUSION

We applied a microsimulation approach to estimate the costs of salmonellosis and its sequelae in Queensland during 2016-2036 under baseline conditions and according to climate change projections. This novel application of microsimulation models demonstrates the models' potential utility to researchers for examining complex interactions between weather and disease to estimate future costs. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1370.

Thermal clothing to reduce heart failure morbidity during winter: a randomised controlled trial

OBJECTIVE

To examine whether providing thermal clothing improved the health of patients with heart failure during winter.

DESIGN

Parallel group randomised controlled trial.

SETTING

Large public hospital in Brisbane during winter 2016.

PARTICIPANTS

91 patients with systolic or diastolic heart failure who were over 50 years old.

INTERVENTION

47 patients were randomised to receive thermal clothes (socks, top and hat) and 44 received usual care. Patients could not be blinded to their randomised group. All patients' data were available for the primary outcome which was collected blind to randomised group.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome was the mean number of days in hospital during winter. Secondary outcomes included quality of life and sleep, and blood tests were collected for cardiovascular risk factors. Participants completed clothing diaries in midwinter which were used to estimate their overall clothing insulation using the 'clo'. Monitors inside the participants' homes recorded indoor temperatures throughout winter.

RESULTS

The mean number of days in hospital during winter was 4.2 in the usual care group and 3.0 in the thermal clothing group (mean difference -1.2 days, 95% CI -4.8 to 2.5 days). Most participants (85%) in the thermal clothing group reported using the thermals. There was an increase in overall clothing insulation at night in the thermal clothing group (mean difference 0.13 clo, 95% CI 0.03 to 0.23). Most participants in both groups did not wear sufficient clothing (defined as a clo below 1) and regularly experienced indoor temperatures below 18°C during midwinter.

CONCLUSIONS

There was no clear statistical improvement in health in the thermal clothing group. Efforts to improve health during winter may need to focus on passive interventions such as home insulation rather than interventions that target behaviour change.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ACTRN12615001023549; Results.

Global tidal variations, regional distribution of ventilation, and the regional onset of filling determined by electrical impedance tomography: reproducibility

The reproducibility of the regional distribution of ventilation and the timing of onset of regional filling as measured by electrical impedance tomography lacks evidence. This study investigated whether electrical impedance tomography measurements in healthy males were reproducible when electrodes were replaced between measurements. Part 1: Recordings of five volunteers lying supine were made using electrical impedance tomography and a pneumotachometer. Measurements were repeated at least three hours later. Skin marking ensured accurate replacement of electrodes. No stabilisation period was allowed. Part 2: Electrical impedance tomography recordings of ten volunteers; a 15 minute stabilisation period, extra skin markings, and time-averaging were incorporated to improve the reproducibility. Reproducibility was determined using the Bland-Altman method. To judge the transferability of the limits of agreement, a Pearson correlation was used for electrical impedance tomography tidal variation and tidal volume. Tidal variation was judged to be reproducible due to the significant correlation between tidal variation and tidal volume (r² = 0.93). The ventilation distribution was not reproducible. A stabilisation period, extra skin markings and time-averaging did not improve the outcome. The timing of regional onset of filling was reproducible and could prove clinically valuable. The reproducibility of the tidal variation indicates that non-reproducibility of the ventilation distribution was probably a biological difference and not measurement error. Other causes of variability such as electrode placement variability or lack of stabilisation when accounted for did not improve the reproducibility of the ventilation distribution.

Funding for cerebral palsy research in Australia, 2000-2015: an observational study

OBJECTIVES

To examine the funding for cerebral palsy (CP) research in Australia, as compared with the National Institutes of Health (NIH).

DESIGN

Observational study.

SETTING

For Australia, philanthropic funding from Cerebral Palsy Alliance Research Foundation (CPARF) (2005-2015) was compared with National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC, 2000-2015) and Australian Research Council (ARC, 2004-2015) and CPARF and NHMRC funding were compared with NIH funding (USA).

PARTICIPANTS

Cerebral Palsy researchers funded by CPARF, NHMRC or NIH.

RESULTS

Over 10 years, total CPARF philanthropic funding was $21.9 million, including people, infrastructure, strategic and project support. As competitive grants, CPARF funded $11.1 million, NHMRC funded $53.5 million and Australian Research Council funded $1.5 million. CPARF, NHMRC and NIH funding has increased in real terms, but only the NIH statistically significantly increased in real terms (mean annual increase US$4.9 million per year, 95% CI 3.6 to 6.2, p<0.001). The NHMRC budget allocated to CP research remained steady over time at 0.5%. A network analysis indicated the relatively small number of CP researchers in Australia is mostly connected through CPARF or NHMRC funding.

CONCLUSIONS

Funding for CP research from the Australian government schemes has stabilised and CP researchers rely on philanthropic funding to fill this gap. In comparison, the NIH is funding a larger number of CP researchers and their funding pattern is consistently increasing.

Effect of temperature and precipitation on salmonellosis cases in South-East Queensland, Australia: an observational study

OBJECTIVE

Foodborne illnesses in Australia, including salmonellosis, are estimated to cost over $A1.25 billion annually. The weather has been identified as being influential on salmonellosis incidence, as cases increase during summer, however time series modelling of salmonellosis is challenging because outbreaks cause strong autocorrelation. This study assesses whether switching models is an improved method of estimating weather-salmonellosis associations.

DESIGN

We analysed weather and salmonellosis in South-East Queensland between 2004 and 2013 using 2 common regression models and a switching model, each with 21-day lags for temperature and precipitation.

RESULTS

The switching model best fit the data, as judged by its substantial improvement in deviance information criterion over the regression models, less autocorrelated residuals and control of seasonality. The switching model estimated a 5 °C increase in mean temperature and 10 mm precipitation were associated with increases in salmonellosis cases of 45.4% (95% CrI 40.4%, 50.5%) and 24.1% (95% CrI 17.0%, 31.6%), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Switching models improve on traditional time series models in quantifying weather-salmonellosis associations. A better understanding of how temperature and precipitation influence salmonellosis may identify where interventions can be made to lower the health and economic costs of salmonellosis.

The time taken for the regional distribution of ventilation to stabilise: an investigation using electrical impedance tomography

Electrical impedance tomography is a novel technology capable of quantifying ventilation distribution in the lung in real time during various therapeutic manoeuvres. The technique requires changes to the patient's position to place the electrical impedance tomography electrodes circumferentially around the thorax. The impact of these position changes on the time taken to stabilise the regional distribution of ventilation determined by electrical impedance tomography is unknown. This study aimed to determine the time taken for the regional distribution of ventilation determined by electrical impedance tomography to stabilise after changing position. Eight healthy, male volunteers were connected to electrical impedance tomography and a pneumotachometer. After 30 minutes stabilisation supine, participants were moved into 60 degrees Fowler's position and then returned to supine. Thirty minutes was spent in each position. Concurrent readings of ventilation distribution and tidal volumes were taken every five minutes. A mixed regression model with a random intercept was used to compare the positions and changes over time. The anterior-posterior distribution stabilised after ten minutes in Fowler's position and ten minutes after returning to supine. Left-right stabilisation was achieved after 15 minutes in Fowler's position and supine. A minimum of 15 minutes of stabilisation should be allowed for spontaneously breathing individuals when assessing ventilation distribution. This time allows stabilisation to occur in the anterior-posterior direction as well as the left-right direction.

Humans, 'things' and space: costing hospital infection control interventions

BACKGROUND

Previous attempts at costing infection control programmes have tended to focus on accounting costs rather than economic costs. For studies using economic costs, estimates tend to be quite crude and probably underestimate the true cost. One of the largest costs of any intervention is staff time, but this cost is difficult to quantify and has been largely ignored in previous attempts.

AIM

To design and evaluate the costs of hospital-based infection control interventions or programmes. This article also discusses several issues to consider when costing interventions, and suggests strategies for overcoming these issues.

METHODS

Previous literature and techniques in both health economics and psychology are reviewed and synthesized.

FINDINGS

This article provides a set of generic, transferable costing guidelines. Key principles such as definition of study scope and focus on large costs, as well as pitfalls (e.g. overconfidence and uncertainty), are discussed.

CONCLUSION

These new guidelines can be used by hospital staff and other researchers to cost their infection control programmes and interventions more accurately.

Randomized controlled trial: a randomized controlled clinical trial comparing a remineralizing paste with an antibacterial gel to prevent early childhood caries

PURPOSE

The purpose of this study was to compare twice daily tooth-brushing using 0.304 percent fluoride toothpaste alone with: (1) twice daily tooth-brushing plus once daily 10% casein phosphopeptide-amorphous calcium phosphate (CPP-ACP) paste; and (2) twice daily tooth-brushing plus once daily 0.12% chlorhexidine gel (CHX) for reducing early childhood caries (ECC) and mutans streptococci (MS) colonization.

METHODS

Subjects (n=622) recruited at birth were randomized to receive either CPP-ACP or CHX or no product (study control [SC]). All children were examined at 6, 12, and 18 months old in their homes, and at 24 months old in a community dental clinic.

RESULTS

At 24 months old, the caries incidence was 1% (2/163) in CPP-ACP, 2% (4/180) in CHX, and 2% (3/188) in SC groups. In children who were previously MS colonized at 12 and 18 months old, 0% (0/11) and 5% (3/63), respectively, of the CPP-ACP group remained MS-positive versus 22% (2/9) and 72% (18/25) in CHX and 16% (4/25) and 50% (7/14) in SC groups (P<.001).

CONCLUSIONS

There is insufficient evidence to justify the daily use of casein phosphopeptide-amorphous calcium phosphate or chlorhexidine gel to control early childhood caries.

Increased sedation requirements in patients receiving extracorporeal membrane oxygenation for respiratory and cardiorespiratory failure

Critically ill patients receiving extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) are often noted to have increased sedation requirements. However, data related to sedation in this complex group of patients is limited. The aim of our study was to characterise the sedation requirements in adult patients receiving ECMO for cardiorespiratory failure. A retrospective chart review was performed to collect sedation data for 30 consecutive patients who received venovenous or venoarterial ECMO between April 2009 and March 2011. To test for a difference in doses over time we used a regression model. The dose of midazolam received on ECMO support increased by an average of 18 mg per day (95% confidence interval 8, 29 mg, P=0.001), while the dose of morphine increased by 29 mg per day (95% confidence interval 4, 53 mg, P=0.021) The venovenous group received a daily midazolam dose that was 157 mg higher than the venoarterial group (95% confidence interval 53, 261 mg, P=0.005). We did not observe any significant increase in fentanyl doses over time (95% confidence interval 1269, 4337 µg, P=0.94). There is a significant increase in dose requirement for morphine and midazolam during ECMO. Patients on venovenous ECMO received higher sedative doses as compared to patients on venoarterial ECMO. Future research should focus on mechanisms behind these changes and also identify drugs that are most suitable for sedation during ECMO.

Estimating the effects of environmental exposures using a weighted mean of monitoring stations

The health effects of environmental hazards are often examined using time series of the association between a daily response variable (e.g., death) and a daily level of exposure (e.g., temperature). Exposures are usually the average from a network of stations. This gives each station equal importance, and negates the opportunity for some stations to be better measures of exposure. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model that weighted stations using random variables between zero and one. We compared the weighted estimates to the standard model using data on health outcomes (deaths and hospital admissions) and exposures (air pollution and temperature) in Brisbane, Australia. The improvements in model fit were relatively small, and the estimated health effects of pollution were similar using either the standard or weighted estimates. Spatial weighted exposures would be probably more worthwhile when there is either greater spatial detail in the health outcome, or a greater spatial variation in exposure.

A longitudinal study comparing mutans streptococci and lactobacilli colonisation in dentate children aged 6 to 24 months

This longitudinal study aimed to investigate variables associated with colonisation of mutans streptococci (MS) compared with lactobacilli (LB) colonisation in a cohort of children (n = 214) from the time of first tooth eruption at approximately 6 months until 24 months of age. Repeated plaque and salivary samples were collected from the same infants at 6, 12, 18 and 24 months and assayed for MS and LB using a microbiological culture kit. Children having both MS and LB increased from 4% at 6 months to 13% at 12 and 18 months to 20% at 24 months (p = 0.004). LB presence at 6 months was correlated with MS presence at 12, 18 and 24 months (r = 0.21 to r = 0.46, p = 0.02), while MS presence at 6 months correlated with LB presence at all other times (r = 0.19 to r = 0.31, p = 0.03). At 6 and 12 months, the key variables for MS colonisation included unrestored dental cavities in the mother (p = 0.03), mother not persisting with toothbrushing (p = 0.001) and bottle taken to bed at night (p = 0.033), while the only significant variable for LB colonisation was natural birth (p = 0.01). At 24 months, the significant variables for MS colonisation were condiments added to pacifier (p = 0.022) and child being uncooperative for toothbrushing (p = 0.025), while the significant variables for LB colonisation were pregnancy problems (p = 0.028) and child being uncooperative for toothbrushing (p = 0.013). The ages 6-12 months thus represent a time period when key variables may be controlled to reduce MS and LB colonisation.

Cold and heat waves in the United States

Extreme cold and heat waves, characterized by a number of cold or hot days in succession, place a strain on people's cardiovascular and respiratory systems. The increase in deaths due to these waves may be greater than that predicted by extreme temperatures alone. We examined cold and heat waves in 99 US cities for 14 years (1987-2000) and investigated how the risk of death depended on the temperature threshold used to define a wave, and a wave's timing, duration and intensity. We defined cold and heat waves using temperatures above and below cold and heat thresholds for two or more days. We tried five cold thresholds using the first to fifth percentiles of temperature, and five heat thresholds using the 95-99 percentiles. The extra wave effects were estimated using a two-stage model to ensure that their effects were estimated after removing the general effects of temperature. The increases in deaths associated with cold waves were generally small and not statistically significant, and there was even evidence of a decreased risk during the coldest waves. Heat waves generally increased the risk of death, particularly for the hottest heat threshold. Cold waves of a colder intensity or longer duration were not more dangerous. Cold waves earlier in the cool season were more dangerous, as were heat waves earlier in the warm season. In general there was no increased risk of death during cold waves above the known increased risk associated with cold temperatures. Cold or heat waves earlier in the cool or warm season may be more dangerous because of a build up in the susceptible pool or a lack of preparedness for extreme temperatures.

Projecting future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Heat-related mortality is a matter of great public health concern, especially in the light of climate change. Although many studies have found associations between high temperatures and mortality, more research is needed to project the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality.

OBJECTIVES

We conducted a systematic review of research and methods for projecting future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios.

DATA SOURCES AND EXTRACTION

A literature search was conducted in August 2010, using the electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search was limited to peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1980 through July 2010.

DATA SYNTHESIS

Fourteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Most projections showed that climate change would result in a substantial increase in heat-related mortality. Projecting heat-related mortality requires understanding historical temperature-mortality relationships and considering the future changes in climate, population, and acclimatization. Further research is needed to provide a stronger theoretical framework for projections, including a better understanding of socioeconomic development, adaptation strategies, land-use patterns, air pollution, and mortality displacement.

CONCLUSIONS

Scenario-based projection research will meaningfully contribute to assessing and managing the potential impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality.

Oxygen delivery through high-flow nasal cannulae increase end-expiratory lung volume and reduce respiratory rate in post-cardiac surgical patients

BACKGROUND

High-flow nasal cannulae (HFNCs) create positive oropharyngeal airway pressure, but it is unclear how their use affects lung volume. Electrical impedance tomography allows the assessment of changes in lung volume by measuring changes in lung impedance. Primary objectives were to investigate the effects of HFNC on airway pressure (P(aw)) and end-expiratory lung volume (EELV) and to identify any correlation between the two. Secondary objectives were to investigate the effects of HFNC on respiratory rate, dyspnoea, tidal volume, and oxygenation; and the interaction between BMI and EELV.

METHODS

Twenty patients prescribed HFNC post-cardiac surgery were investigated. Impedance measures, P(aw), ratio, respiratory rate, and modified Borg scores were recorded first on low-flow oxygen and then on HFNC.

RESULTS

A strong and significant correlation existed between P(aw) and end-expiratory lung impedance (EELI) (r=0.7, P<0.001). Compared with low-flow oxygen, HFNC significantly increased EELI by 25.6% [95% confidence interval (CI) 24.3, 26.9] and P(aw) by 3.0 cm H(2)O (95% CI 2.4, 3.7). Respiratory rate reduced by 3.4 bpm (95% CI 1.7, 5.2) with HFNC use, tidal impedance variation increased by 10.5% (95% CI 6.1, 18.3), and ratio improved by 30.6 mm Hg (95% CI 17.9, 43.3). A trend towards HFNC improving subjective dyspnoea scoring (P=0.023) was found. Increases in EELI were significantly influenced by BMI, with larger increases associated with higher BMIs (P<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

This study suggests that HFNCs reduce respiratory rate and improve oxygenation by increasing both EELV and tidal volume and are most beneficial in patients with higher BMIs.

A novel in vivo ovine model of transfusion-related acute lung injury (TRALI)

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Even with the introduction of specific risk-reduction strategies, transfusion-related acute lung injury (TRALI) continues to be a leading cause of transfusion-related morbidity and mortality. Existing small animal models have not yet investigated TRALI resulting from the infusion of heat-treated supernatant from whole blood platelet concentrates. In this study, our objective was the development of a novel in vivo two-event model of TRALI in sheep.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Lipopolysaccharide (LPS; 15 μg/kg) as a first event, modelled clinical infection. Transfusion (estimated at 10% of total blood volume) of heat-treated pooled supernatant from date-of-expire human whole blood platelet concentrates (d5-PLT-S/N) was used as a second event. TRALI was defined by both hypoxaemia that developed either during the transfusion or within two hours of its completion and post-mortem histological evidence of pulmonary oedema.

RESULTS

LPS infusion did not cause lung injury itself, but did result in decreased circulating levels of lymphocytes and neutrophils with evidence of the latter becoming sequestered in the lungs. Sheep that received LPS (first event) followed by d5-PLT-S/N (second event) displayed decreased pulmonary compliance, decreased end tidal CO(2) and increased arterial partial pressure of CO(2) relative to control sheep, and 80% of these sheep developed TRALI.

CONCLUSIONS

This novel ovine two-event TRALI model presents a new tool for the investigation of TRALI pathogenesis. It represents the first description of an in vivo large animal model of TRALI and the first description of TRALI caused by transfusion with heat-treated pooled supernatant from human whole blood platelet concentrates.

Assessment of heat-related health impacts in Brisbane, Australia: comparison of different heatwave definitions

Background

There is no global definition of a heatwave because local acclimatisation and adaptation influence the impact of extreme heat. Even at a local level there can be multiple heatwave definitions, based on varying temperature levels or time periods. We investigated the relationship between heatwaves and health outcomes using ten different heatwave definitions in Brisbane, Australia.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We used daily data on climate, air pollution, and emergency hospital admissions in Brisbane between January 1996 and December 2005; and mortality between January 1996 and November 2004. Case-crossover analyses were used to assess the relationship between each of the ten heatwave definitions and health outcomes. During heatwaves there was a statistically significant increase in emergency hospital admissions for all ten definitions, with odds ratios ranging from 1.03 to 1.18. A statistically significant increase in the odds ratios of mortality was also found for eight definitions. The size of the heat-related impact varied between definitions.

Conclusions/Significance

Even a small change in the heatwave definition had an appreciable effect on the estimated health impact. It is important to identify an appropriate definition of heatwave locally and to understand its health effects in order to develop appropriate public health intervention strategies to prevent and mitigate the impact of heatwaves.

What measure of temperature is the best predictor of mortality?

Hot and cold temperatures significantly increase mortality rates around the world, but which measure of temperature is the best predictor of mortality is not known. We used mortality data from 107 US cities for the years 1987-2000 and examined the association between temperature and mortality using Poisson regression and modelled a non-linear temperature effect and a non-linear lag structure. We examined mean, minimum and maximum temperature with and without humidity, and apparent temperature and the Humidex. The best measure was defined as that with the minimum cross-validated residual. We found large differences in the best temperature measure between age groups, seasons and cities, and there was no one temperature measure that was superior to the others. The strong correlation between different measures of temperature means that, on average, they have the same predictive ability. The best temperature measure for new studies can be chosen based on practical concerns, such as choosing the measure with the least amount of missing data.

Using videotelephony to support paediatric oncology-related palliative care in the home: from abandoned RCT to acceptability study

Videotelephony (real-time audio-visual communication) has been used successfully in adult palliative home care. This paper describes two attempts to complete an RCT (both of which were abandoned following difficulties with family recruitment), designed to investigate the use of videotelephony with families receiving palliative care from a tertiary paediatric oncology service in Brisbane, Australia. To investigate whether providing videotelephone-based support was acceptable to these families, a 12-month non-randomised acceptability trial was completed. Seventeen palliative care families were offered access to a videotelephone support service in addition to the 24 hours 'on-call' service already offered. A 92% participation rate in this study provided some reassurance that the use of videotelephones themselves was not a factor in poor RCT participation rates. The next phase of research is to investigate the integration of videotelephone-based support from the time of diagnosis, through outpatient care and support, and for palliative care rather than for palliative care in isolation. Trial registration ACTRN 12606000311550.

Temperature and Cardiovascular Deaths in the US Elderly

BACKGROUND

Short-term changes in temperature have been associated with cardiovascular deaths. This study examines changes in this association over time among the US elderly.

METHODS

Daily cardiovascular mortality counts from 107 cities in the US National Morbidity and Mortality Air Pollution Study were regressed against daily temperature using the case-crossover method. Estimates were averaged by time and season using a meta-analysis.

RESULTS

In summer 1987 the average increase in cardiovascular deaths due to a 10 degrees F increase in temperature was 4.7%. By summer 2000, the risk with higher temperature had disappeared (-0.4%). In contrast, an increase in temperature in fall, winter and spring was associated with a decrease in deaths, and this decrease remained constant over time.

CONCLUSIONS

Heat-related cardiovascular deaths in the elderly have declined over time, probably due to increased use of air conditioning, while increased risks with cold-related temperature persist.

Estimating trends and seasonality in coronary heart disease

We present two methods of estimating the trend, seasonality and noise in time series of coronary heart disease events. In contrast to previous work we use a non-linear trend, allow multiple seasonal components, and carefully examine the residuals from the fitted model. We show the importance of estimating these three aspects of the observed data to aid insight of the underlying process, although our major focus is on the seasonal components. For one method we allow the seasonal effects to vary over time and show how this helps the understanding of the association between coronary heart disease and varying temperature patterns.

How to do safe sternal reentry and the risk factors of redo cardiac surgery: a 21-year review with zero major cardiac injury

OBJECTIVES

Resternotomy is a common part of cardiac surgical practice. Associated with resternotomy are the risks of cardiac injury and catastrophic hemorrhage and the subsequent elevated morbidity and mortality in the operating room or during the postoperative period. The technique of direct vision resternotomy is safe and has fewer, if any, serious cardiac injuries. The technique, the reduced need for groin cannulation and the overall low operative mortality and morbidity are the focus of this restrospective analysis.

METHODS

The records of 495 patients undergoing 546 resternotomies over a 21-year period to January 2000 were reviewed. All consecutive reoperations by the one surgeon comprised patients over the age of 20 at first resternotomy: M:F 343:203, mean age 57 years (range 20 to 85, median age 60). The mean NYHA grade was 2.3 [with 67 patients (I), 273 (II), 159 (III), 43 (IV), and 4 (V classification)] with elective reoperation in 94.6%. Cardiac injury was graded into five groups and the incidence and reasons for groin cannulation estimated. The morbidity and mortality as a result of the reoperation and resternotomy were assessed.

RESULTS

The hospital/30 day mortality was 2.9% (95% CI: 1.6%-4.4%) (16 deaths) over the 21 years. First (481), second (53), and third (12) resternotomies produced 307 uncomplicated technical reopenings, 203 slower but uncomplicated procedures, 9 minor superficial cardiac lacerations, and no moderate or severe cardiac injuries. Direct vision resternotomy is crystalized into the principle that only adhesions that are visualized from below are divided and only sternal bone that is freed of adhesions is sewn. Groin exposure was never performed prophylactically for resternotomy. Fourteen patients (2.6%) had such cannulation for aortic dissection/aneurysm (9 patients), excessive sternal adherence of cardiac structures (3 patients), presurgery cardiac arrest (1 patient), and high aortic cannulation desired and not possible (1 patient). The average postop blood loss was 594 mL (95% CI:558-631) in the first 12 hours. The need to return to the operating room for control of excessive bleeding was 2% (11 patients). Blood transfusion was given in 65% of the resternotomy procedures over the 21 years (mean 854 mL: 95% CI 765-945 mL) and 41% over the last 5 years.

CONCLUSIONS

The technique of direct vision resternotomy has been associated with zero moderate or major cardiac injury/catastrophic hemorrhage at reoperation. Few patients have required groin cannulation. In the postoperative period, there was acceptable blood loss, transfusion rates, reduced morbidity, and moderate low mortality for this potentially high risk group.

Experiences with redo aortic valve surgery

OBJECTIVES AND METHODS

Reoperations are an integral part of a cardiac surgeon's practice. We share our experience of 546 reoperations over the last 21 years to January 2000, with the focus directed towards the timing of reoperation, reducing the mortality and morbidity of reoperation and rereplacement aortic valve surgery, and understanding the important risk factors. In addition, the precise technical steps that facilitate careful successful explantation of various devices (allograft, stented and stentless xenografts, and mechanical valves) are detailed.

RESULTS

Optimal planned reoperation before deterioration to New York Heart Association Class III/IV levels and before unfavorable cardiac and comorbidity general system failure occurs has produced low mortality and morbidity as compared with first operation results. However, unfavorable delays and late rereferral result in mortality rates of up to 22% for emergency redo AVR for degenerated bioprostheses.

CONCLUSION

Cardiac surgical units have the opportunity to establish a closer patient-surgeon relationship, which favors, when necessary, the optimal timing of reoperation. Knowledge of the more important risk factors and adherence to specific technical steps at explantation of various devices enhances satisfactory reoperation outcomes.

The use of pre-conceptional folic acid as an indicator of uptake of a health message amongst white and Bangladeshi women in Tower Hamlets, east London

BACKGROUND

The benefit of folic acid is a simple health promotion message of proven effectiveness that is particularly pertinent to a young population with a high birth rate.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of the present study was to compare the uptake of a folic acid health message in two different ethnic groups.

METHODS

Community antenatal teams in Tower Hamlets were asked to recruit women attending for a booking between October 1997 and July 1998 to the study. Tower Hamlets, in east London, is one of the poorest areas in England and Wales, with an ethnically diverse population. A questionnaire enquiring about age, employment, level of education, use of folic acid in their current pregnancy, understanding of the benefits of folic acid and self-described ethnic group was administered verbally immediately before the booking appointment to those women who agreed to participate.

RESULTS

Completed questionnaires were received on 249 women. Univariate analysis showed that white women were 5.7 [95% confidence interval (CI) 2.5, 13.2] times more likely to have taken folic acid supplements before conception than Bangladeshi women. Having controlled for the variables, age, school leaving age, social class, parity, planned pregnancy and 'heard of folic acid', ethnic status remained a significant predictor of taking folic acid, with the odds ratio dropping to 5.2 with a 95% CI (1.1, 25.2).

CONCLUSION

The Bangladeshi community in the UK have been shown to have poor access to health information sources, which is consistent with the results of this survey, which shows that a simple and important message has not been acted upon equally by white and Bangladeshi women in east London. This survey lends support to the view that resources and innovative forms of health promotion are needed to ensure that ethnic minority groups have adequate access to health promotion messages.

Evaluation of two time-specific back pain outcome measures

STUDY DESIGN

Postal questionnaire to individuals with back pain.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the acceptability, validity, and reliability of two existing back pain outcome measures, the Roland-Morris Questionnaire and the Von Korff scales, modified to measure the preceding 4 weeks.

SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA

The ideal outcome measure for studies of low back pain and disability remains elusive. Most existing measures assess current pain and disability. Measuring these factors over a preceding 4-week period may be more appropriate.

METHODS

Individuals with back pain identified in a community survey were asked to complete the modified questionnaires. Validity was assessed by comparison with the Medical Outcome Study Short Form 36 and two general comparator questions on self-reported pain and disability. Repeatability was assessed using retest questionnaires.

RESULTS

Completed questionnaires were returned by 95 individuals with chronic back pain. The modified Roland-Morris Questionnaire and Von Korff pain and Von Korff disability scales were completed satisfactorily by 83 (87%), 89 (94%), and 87 (92%) participants, respectively. Mean scores of the modified measures changed significantly and in a predictable manner with increasing ratings of pain and disability. They also correlated with aspects of the Medical Outcome Study Short Form 36 questionnaire. Retest data suggest that these measures are repeatable. The modified Roland-Morris Questionnaire provided adequate analyzable data only if missing values were imputed, and it explained less of the variance in the comparator questions than the modified Von Korff scales.

CONCLUSIONS

The modified Von Korff scales were completed easily and appear to be valid and repeatable in this format.

Availability of services to treat patients with acute low back pain

Guidelines for the management of acute low back pain were published in 1994. This national survey, conducted soon after, showed that the availability of services for general practitioners (GPs) to treat acute back pain fell short of the guideline recommendations. A repeat survey will be performed to measure the impact of guideline publication and dissemination.

Evaluation of herbicides for control of summer-growing weeds on fallows in south-eastern Australia

Eighteen herbicides or herbicide tankmixes were evaluated over 3 years (1987-89) for their control of 11 important summer-growing weeds on fallows in southern New South Wales and the Wimmera area of Victoria. Each of the weeds was effectively controlled by at least 1 herbicide. The tank-mixes of glyphosate plus metsulfuron (270 + 4.2 g a.i./ha) and glyphosate plus 2,4-D ester (270 + 320 g a.i./ha) were the most effective treatments, each giving an average of 68% control of all species. Hogweed (Polygolzunz avicu1ar.e L.), prickly paddy melon (Cucumis myriocarpris Naudin), spear thistle [Cirsium vulgare (Savi) Ten.] and skeleton weed (Chondrilla juncea L.) were the species most tolerant of these 2 tank-mixes. When these species were exluded, glyphosate plus metsulfuron and glyphosate plus 2,4-D ester gave an average of 90 and 88% control, respectively, of the remaining species [common heliotrope, Heliotropiunz europaeum L.; camel melon, Citrullus larzatus (Thunb.) Matsum. and Nakai var. lanatus; prickly lettuce, Lactuca serriola L.; sowthistle, Sonchus spp.; clammy goosefoot, Chenopodium pumilio R.Br.; caltrop, Tribulus terrestris L.; stink grass, Eragrostis ciliatiensis (All.) E. Mosher]. Hogweed was most effectively controlled by 2,4-D amine plus dicamba (750 + 100 g a.i./ha) or 2,4-D ester (800 g a.i./ha); prickly paddy melon by 2,4-D amine plus triclopyr (750 + 96 g a.i./ha); spear thistle by 2,4-D amine plus dicamba (750 + 100 g a.i./ha) or glyphosate plus clopyralid (270 + 60 g a.i./ha); and skeleton weed by 2,4-D amine plus clopyralid (750 + 60 g a.i./ha). A pot experiment confirmed field observations that, as common heliotrope ages, glyphosate and glyphosate plus metsulfuron become less effective for its control.