Impact and cost-effectiveness of SARS-CoV-2 self-testing strategies in schools: a multicountry modelling analysis

OBJECTIVES

To determine the most epidemiologically effective and cost-effective school-based SARS-CoV-2 antigen-detection rapid diagnostic test (Ag-RDT) self-testing strategies among teachers and students.

DESIGN

Mathematical modelling and economic evaluation.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Simulated school and community populations were parameterised to Brazil, Georgia and Zambia, with SARS-CoV-2 self-testing strategies targeted to teachers and students in primary and secondary schools under varying epidemic conditions.

INTERVENTIONS

SARS-CoV-2 Ag-RDT self-testing strategies for only teachers or teachers and students-only symptomatically or symptomatically and asymptomatically at 5%, 10%, 40% or 100% of schools at varying frequencies.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Outcomes were assessed in terms of total infections and symptomatic days among teachers and students, as well as total infections and deaths within the community under the intervention compared with baseline. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated for infections prevented among teachers and students.

RESULTS

With respect to both the reduction in infections and total cost, symptomatic testing of all teachers and students appears to be the most cost-effective strategy. Symptomatic testing can prevent up to 69·3%, 64·5% and 75·5% of school infections in Brazil, Georgia and Zambia, respectively, depending on the epidemic conditions, with additional reductions in community infections. ICERs for symptomatic testing range from US$2 to US$19 per additional school infection averted as compared with symptomatic testing of teachers alone.

CONCLUSIONS

Symptomatic testing of teachers and students has the potential to cost-effectively reduce a substantial number of school and community infections.

Determinants of epidemic size and the impacts of lulls in seasonal influenza virus circulation

During the COVID-19 pandemic, levels of seasonal influenza virus circulation were unprecedentedly low, leading to concerns that a lack of exposure to influenza viruses, combined with waning antibody titres, could result in larger and/or more severe post-pandemic seasonal influenza epidemics. However, in most countries the first post-pandemic influenza season was not unusually large and/or severe. Here, based on an analysis of historical influenza virus epidemic patterns from 2002 to 2019, we show that historic lulls in influenza virus circulation had relatively minor impacts on subsequent epidemic size and that epidemic size was more substantially impacted by season-specific effects unrelated to the magnitude of circulation in prior seasons. From measurements of antibody levels from serum samples collected each year from 2017 to 2021, we show that the rate of waning of antibody titres against influenza virus during the pandemic was smaller than assumed in predictive models. Taken together, these results partially explain why the re-emergence of seasonal influenza virus epidemics was less dramatic than anticipated and suggest that influenza virus epidemic dynamics are not currently amenable to multi-season prediction.

Estimating the potential impact and diagnostic requirements for SARS-CoV-2 test-and-treat programs

Oral antivirals have the potential to reduce the public health burden of COVID-19. However, now that we have exited the emergency-phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, declining SARS-CoV-2 clinical testing rates (average testing rates = [Formula: see text]10 tests/100,000 people/day in low-and-middle income countries; <100 tests/100,000 people/day in high-income countries; September 2023) make the development of effective test-and-treat programs challenging. We used an agent-based model to investigate how testing rates and strategies affect the use and effectiveness of oral antiviral test-to-treat programs in four country archetypes of different income levels and demographies. We find that in the post-emergency-phase of the pandemic, in countries where low testing rates are driven by limited testing capacity, significant population-level impact of test-and-treat programs can only be achieved by both increasing testing rates and prioritizing individuals with greater risk of severe disease. However, for all countries, significant reductions in severe cases with antivirals are only possible if testing rates were substantially increased with high willingness of people to seek testing. Comparing the potential population-level reductions in severe disease outcomes of test-to-treat programs and vaccination shows that test-and-treat strategies are likely substantially more resource intensive requiring very high levels of testing (≫100 tests/100,000 people/day) and antiviral use suggesting that vaccination should be a higher priority.

Co-evolution of immunity and seasonal influenza viruses

Seasonal influenza viruses cause recurring global epidemics by continually evolving to escape host immunity. The viral constraints and host immune responses that limit and drive the evolution of these viruses are increasingly well understood. However, it remains unclear how most of these advances improve the capacity to reduce the impact of seasonal influenza viruses on human health. In this Review, we synthesize recent progress made in understanding the interplay between the evolution of immunity induced by previous infections or vaccination and the evolution of seasonal influenza viruses driven by the heterogeneous accumulation of antibody-mediated immunity in humans. We discuss the functional constraints that limit the evolution of the viruses, the within-host evolutionary processes that drive the emergence of new virus variants, as well as current and prospective options for influenza virus control, including the viral and immunological barriers that must be overcome to improve the effectiveness of vaccines and antiviral drugs.

Estimating the potential impact and diagnostic requirements for SARS-CoV-2 test-and-treat programs

Oral antivirals have the potential to reduce the public health burden of COVID-19. However, now that we have exited the emergency phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, declining SARS-CoV-2 clinical testing rates (average testing rates = ≪10 tests/100,000 people/day in low- and-middle income countries; <100 tests/100,000 people/day in high-income countries; September 2023) make the development of effective test-and-treat programs challenging. We used an agent-based model to investigate how testing rates and strategies affect the use and effectiveness of oral antiviral test-to-treat programs in four country archetypes of different income levels and demographies. We find that in the post-emergency phase of the pandemic, in countries where low testing rates are driven by limited testing capacity, significant population-level impact of test-and-treat programs can only be achieved by both increasing testing rates and prioritizing individuals with greater risk of severe disease. However, for all countries, significant reductions in severe cases with antivirals are only possible if testing rates were substantially increased with high willingness of people to seek testing. Comparing the potential population-level reductions in severe disease outcomes of test-to-treat programs and vaccination shows that test-and-treat strategies are likely substantially more resource intensive requiring very high levels of testing (>>100 tests/100,000 people/day) and antiviral use suggesting that vaccination should be a higher priority.

Mutual information networks reveal evolutionary relationships within the influenza A virus polymerase

The influenza A virus (IAV) RNA polymerase is an essential driver of IAV evolution. Mutations that the polymerase introduces into viral genome segments during replication are the ultimate source of genetic variation, including within the three subunits of the IAV polymerase (polymerase basic protein 2, polymerase basic protein 1, and polymerase acidic protein). Evolutionary analysis of the IAV polymerase is complicated, because changes in mutation rate, replication speed, and drug resistance involve epistatic interactions among its subunits. In order to study the evolution of the human seasonal H3N2 polymerase since the 1968 pandemic, we identified pairwise evolutionary relationships among ∼7000 H3N2 polymerase sequences using mutual information (MI), which measures the information gained about the identity of one residue when a second residue is known. To account for uneven sampling of viral sequences over time, we developed a weighted MI (wMI) metric and demonstrate that wMI outperforms raw MI through simulations using a well-sampled severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) dataset. We then constructed wMI networks of the H3N2 polymerase to extend the inherently pairwise wMI statistic to encompass relationships among larger groups of residues. We included hemagglutinin (HA) in the wMI network to distinguish between functional wMI relationships within the polymerase and those potentially due to hitch-hiking on antigenic changes in HA. The wMI networks reveal coevolutionary relationships among residues with roles in replication and encapsidation. Inclusion of HA highlighted polymerase-only subgraphs containing residues with roles in the enzymatic functions of the polymerase and host adaptability. This work provides insight into the factors that drive and constrain the rapid evolution of influenza viruses.

Strategies for Using Antigen Rapid Diagnostic Tests to Reduce Transmission of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Mathematical Modelling Study Applied to Zambia

BACKGROUND

Increasing the availability of antigen rapid diagnostic tests (Ag-RDTs) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) is key to alleviating global SARS-CoV-2 testing inequity (median testing rate in December 2021-March 2022 when the Omicron variant was spreading in multiple countries: high-income countries = 600 tests/100 000 people/day; LMICs = 14 tests/100 000 people/day). However, target testing levels and effectiveness of asymptomatic community screening to impact SARS-CoV-2 transmission in LMICs are unclear.

METHODS

We used Propelling Action for Testing and Treating (PATAT), an LMIC-focused agent-based model to simulate coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemics, varying the amount of Ag-RDTs available for symptomatic testing at healthcare facilities and asymptomatic community testing in different social settings. We assumed that testing was a function of access to healthcare facilities and availability of Ag-RDTs. We explicitly modelled symptomatic testing demand from individuals without SARS-CoV-2 and measured impact based on the number of infections averted due to test-and-isolate.

RESULTS

Testing symptomatic individuals yields greater benefits than any asymptomatic community testing strategy until most symptomatic individuals who sought testing have been tested. Meeting symptomatic testing demand likely requires at least 200-400 tests/100 000 people/day, on average, as symptomatic testing demand is highly influenced by individuals without SARS-CoV-2. After symptomatic testing demand is satisfied, excess tests to proactively screen for asymptomatic infections among household members yield the largest additional infections averted.

CONCLUSIONS

Testing strategies aimed at reducing transmission should prioritize symptomatic testing and incentivizing test-positive individuals to adhere to isolation to maximize effectiveness.

Mutual information networks reveal evolutionary relationships within the influenza A virus polymerase

The influenza A (IAV) RNA polymerase is an essential driver of IAV evolution. Mutations that the polymerase introduces into viral genome segments during replication are the ultimate source of genetic variation, including within the three subunits of the IAV polymerase (PB2, PB1, and PA). Evolutionary analysis of the IAV polymerase is complicated, because changes in mutation rate, replication speed, and drug resistance involve epistatic interactions among its subunits. In order to study the evolution of the human seasonal H3N2 polymerase since the 1968 pandemic, we identified pairwise evolutionary relationships among ∼7000 H3N2 polymerase sequences using mutual information (MI), which measures the information gained about the identity of one residue when a second residue is known. To account for uneven sampling of viral sequences over time, we developed a weighted MI metric (wMI) and demonstrate that wMI outperforms raw MI through simulations using a well-sampled SARS-CoV-2 dataset. We then constructed wMI networks of the H3N2 polymerase to extend the inherently pairwise wMI statistic to encompass relationships among larger groups of residues. We included HA in the wMI network to distinguish between functional wMI relationships within the polymerase and those potentially due to hitchhiking on antigenic changes in HA. The wMI networks reveal coevolutionary relationships among residues with roles in replication and encapsidation. Inclusion of HA highlighted polymerase-only subgraphs containing residues with roles in the enzymatic functions of the polymerase and host adaptability. This work provides insight into the factors that drive and constrain the rapid evolution of influenza viruses.

Potential impacts of prolonged absence of influenza virus circulation on subsequent epidemics

Background

During the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic, the circulation of seasonal influenza viruses was unprecedentedly low. This led to concerns that the lack of immune stimulation to influenza viruses combined with waning antibody titres could lead to increased susceptibility to influenza in subsequent seasons, resulting in larger and more severe epidemics.

Methods

We analyzed historical influenza virus epidemiological data from 2003-2019 to assess the historical frequency of near-absence of seasonal influenza virus circulation and its impact on the size and severity of subsequent epidemics. Additionally, we measured haemagglutination inhibition-based antibody titres against seasonal influenza viruses using longitudinal serum samples from 165 healthy adults, collected before and during the COVID-19 pandemic, and estimated how antibody titres against seasonal influenza waned during the first two years of the pandemic.

Findings

Low country-level prevalence of influenza virus (sub)types over one or more years occurred frequently before the COVID-19 pandemic and had relatively small impacts on subsequent epidemic size and severity. Additionally, antibody titres against seasonal influenza viruses waned negligibly during the first two years of the pandemic.

Interpretation

The commonly held notion that lulls in influenza virus circulation, as observed during the COVID-19 pandemic, will lead to larger and/or more severe subsequent epidemics might not be fully warranted, and it is likely that post-lull seasons will be similar in size and severity to pre-lull seasons.

Funding

European Research Council, Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research, Royal Dutch Academy of Sciences, Public Health Service of Amsterdam.

Research in context

Evidence before this study: During the first years of the COVID-19 pandemic, the incidence of seasonal influenza was unusually low, leading to widespread concerns of exceptionally large and/or severe influenza epidemics in the coming years. We searched PubMed and Google Scholar using a combination of search terms (i.e., "seasonal influenza", "SARS-CoV-2", "COVID-19", "low incidence", "waning rates", "immune protection") and critically considered published articles and preprints that studied or reviewed the low incidence of seasonal influenza viruses since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic and its potential impact on future seasonal influenza epidemics. We found a substantial body of work describing how influenza virus circulation was reduced during the COVID-19 pandemic, and a number of studies projecting the size of future epidemics, each positing that post-pandemic epidemics are likely to be larger than those observed pre-pandemic. However, it remains unclear to what extent the assumed relationship between accumulated susceptibility and subsequent epidemic size holds, and it remains unknown to what extent antibody levels have waned during the COVID-19 pandemic. Both are potentially crucial for accurate prediction of post-pandemic epidemic sizes.Added value of this study: We find that the relationship between epidemic size and severity and the magnitude of circulation in the preceding season(s) is decidedly more complex than assumed, with the magnitude of influenza circulation in preceding seasons having only limited effects on subsequent epidemic size and severity. Rather, epidemic size and severity are dominated by season-specific effects unrelated to the magnitude of circulation in the preceding season(s). Similarly, we find that antibody levels waned only modestly during the COVID-19 pandemic.Implications of all the available evidence: The lack of changes observed in the patterns of measured antibody titres against seasonal influenza viruses in adults and nearly two decades of epidemiological data suggest that post-pandemic epidemic sizes will likely be similar to those observed pre-pandemic, and challenge the commonly held notion that the widespread concern that the near-absence of seasonal influenza virus circulation during the COVID-19 pandemic, or potential future lulls, are likely to result in larger influenza epidemics in subsequent years.

SARS-CoV-2 diagnostic testing rates determine the sensitivity of genomic surveillance programs

The first step in SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance is testing to identify infected people. However, global testing rates are falling as we emerge from the acute health emergency and remain low in many low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) (mean = 27 tests/100,000 people/day). We simulated COVID-19 epidemics in a prototypical LMIC to investigate how testing rates, sampling strategies, and sequencing proportions jointly impact surveillance outcomes and showed that low testing rates and spatiotemporal biases delay time-to-detection of new variants by weeks-to-months and can lead to unreliable estimates of variant prevalence even when the proportion of samples sequenced is increased. Accordingly, investments in wider access to diagnostics to support testing rates of ~100 tests/100,000 people/day could enable more timely detection of new variants and reliable estimates of variant prevalence. The performance of global SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance programs is fundamentally limited by access to diagnostic testing.

Antigenic cartography using sera from sequence-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern infections reveals antigenic divergence of Omicron

Large-scale vaccination campaigns have prevented countless hospitalizations and deaths due to COVID-19. However, the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants that escape from immunity challenges the effectiveness of current vaccines. Given this continuing evolution, an important question is when and how to update SARS-CoV-2 vaccines to antigenically match circulating variants, similarly to seasonal influenza viruses where antigenic drift necessitates periodic vaccine updates. Here, we studied SARS-CoV-2 antigenic drift by assessing neutralizing activity against variants of concern (VOCs) in a set of sera from patients infected with viral sequence-confirmed VOCs. Infections with D614G or Alpha strains induced the broadest immunity, whereas individuals infected with other VOCs had more strain-specific responses. Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 were substantially resistant to neutralization by sera elicited by all other variants. Antigenic cartography revealed that Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 were antigenically most distinct from D614G, associated with immune escape, and possibly will require vaccine updates to ensure vaccine effectiveness.

Regional importation and asymmetric within-country spread of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern in the Netherlands

Background:

Variants of concern (VOCs) of SARS-CoV-2 have caused resurging waves of infections worldwide. In the Netherlands, the Alpha, Beta, Gamma, and Delta VOCs circulated widely between September 2020 and August 2021. We sought to elucidate how various control measures, including targeted flight restrictions, had impacted the introduction and spread of these VOCs in the Netherlands.

Methods:

We performed phylogenetic analyses on 39,844 SARS-CoV-2 genomes collected under the Dutch national surveillance program.

Results:

We found that all four VOCs were introduced before targeted flight restrictions were imposed on countries where the VOCs first emerged. Importantly, foreign introductions, predominantly from other European countries, continued during these restrictions. After their respective introductions into the Netherlands, the Alpha and Delta VOCs largely circulated within more populous regions of the country with international connections before asymmetric bidirectional transmissions occurred with the rest of the country and the VOC became the dominant circulating lineage.

Conclusions:

Our findings show that flight restrictions had limited effectiveness in deterring VOC introductions due to the strength of regional land travel importation risks. As countries consider scaling down SARS-CoV-2 surveillance efforts in the post-crisis phase of the pandemic, our results highlight that robust surveillance in regions of early spread is important for providing timely information for variant detection and outbreak control.

Funding:

None.

Regional connectivity drove bidirectional transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the Middle East during travel restrictions

Regional connectivity and land travel have been identified as important drivers of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. However, the generalizability of this finding is understudied outside of well-sampled, highly connected regions. In this study, we investigated the relative contributions of regional and intercontinental connectivity to the source-sink dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 for Jordan and the Middle East. By integrating genomic, epidemiological and travel data we show that the source of introductions into Jordan was dynamic across 2020, shifting from intercontinental seeding in the early pandemic to more regional seeding for the travel restrictions period. We show that land travel, particularly freight transport, drove introduction risk during the travel restrictions period. High regional connectivity and land travel also drove Jordan's export risk. Our findings emphasize regional connectedness and land travel as drivers of transmission in the Middle East.

The effect of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination on post-acute sequelae of COVID-19 (PASC): A prospective cohort study

Background

Symptoms of post-acute sequelae of COVID-19 (PASC) may improve following SARS-CoV-2 vaccination. However few prospective data that also explore the underlying biological mechanism are available. We assessed the effect of vaccination on symptomatology of participants with PASC, and compared antibody dynamics between those with and without PASC.

Methods

RECoVERED is a prospective cohort study of adult patients with mild to critical COVID-19, enrolled from illness onset. Among participants with PASC, vaccinated participants were exact-matched 1:1 on age, sex, obesity status and time since illness onset to unvaccinated participants. Between matched pairs, we compared the monthly mean numbers of symptoms over a 3-month follow-up period, and, using exact logistic regression, the proportion of participants who fully recovered from PASC. Finally, we assessed the association between PACS status and rate of decay of spike- and RBD-binding IgG titers up to 9 months after illness onset using Bayesian hierarchical linear regression.

Findings

Of 349 enrolled participants, 316 (90.5%) had ≥3 months of follow-up, of whom 186 (58.9%) developed PASC. Among 36 matched pairs with PASC, the mean number of symptoms reported each month during 3 months of follow-up were comparable between vaccinated and unvaccinated groups. Odds of full recovery from PASC also did not differ between matched pairs (OR 1.57 [95%CI 0.46–5.84]) within 3 months after the matched time-point. The median half-life of spike- and RBD-binding IgG levels were, in days (95%CrI), 233 (183–324) and 181 (147–230) among participants with PASC, and 170 (125–252) and 144 (113–196) among those without PASC, respectively.

Interpretation

Our study found no strong evidence to suggest that vaccination improves symptoms of PASC. This was corroborated by comparable spike- and RBD-binding IgG waning trajectories between those with and without PASC, refuting any immunological basis for a therapeutic effect of vaccination on PASC.

Regional importation and asymmetric within-country spread of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern in the Netherlands.. [PMID: 35350194 PMCID: PMC8963694 DOI: 10.1101/2022.03.21.22272611]

Variants of concern (VOCs) of SARS-CoV-2 have caused resurging waves of infections worldwide. In the Netherlands, Alpha, Beta, Gamma and Delta variants circulated widely between September 2020 and August 2021. To understand how various control measures had impacted the spread of these VOCs, we analyzed 39,844 SARS-CoV-2 genomes collected under the Dutch national surveillance program. We found that all four VOCs were introduced before targeted flight restrictions were imposed on countries where the VOCs first emerged. Importantly, foreign introductions, predominantly from other European countries, continued during these restrictions. Our findings show that flight restrictions had limited effectiveness in deterring VOC introductions due to the strength of regional land travel importation risks. We also found that the Alpha and Delta variants largely circulated more populous regions with international connections after their respective introduction before asymmetric bidirectional transmissions occurred with the rest of the country and the variant dominated infections in the Netherlands. As countries consider scaling down SARS-CoV-2 surveillance efforts in the post-crisis phase of the pandemic, our results highlight that robust surveillance in regions of early spread is important for providing timely information for variant detection and outbreak control.

Epidemiologic and Genomic Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant Superspreading Event in Nightclub, the Netherlands, June 2021

We report a severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 superspreading event in the Netherlands after distancing rules were lifted in nightclubs, despite requiring a negative test or vaccination. This occurrence illustrates the potential for rapid dissemination of variants in largely unvaccinated populations under such conditions. We detected subsequent community transmission of this strain.

A single mRNA vaccine dose in COVID-19 patients boosts neutralizing antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 and variants of concern

The urgent need for, but limited availability of, SARS-CoV-2 vaccines worldwide has led to widespread consideration of dose-sparing strategies. Here, we evaluate the SARS-CoV-2-specific antibody responses following BNT162b2 vaccination in 150 previously SARS-CoV-2-infected individuals from a population-based cohort. One week after first vaccine dose, spike protein antibody levels are 27-fold higher and neutralizing antibody titers 12-fold higher, exceeding titers of fully vaccinated SARS-CoV-2-naive controls, with minimal additional boosting after the second dose. Neutralizing antibody titers against four variants of concern increase after vaccination; however, overall neutralization breadth does not improve. Pre-vaccination neutralizing antibody titers and time since infection have the largest positive effect on titers following vaccination. COVID-19 severity and the presence of comorbidities have no discernible impact on vaccine response. In conclusion, a single dose of BNT162b2 vaccine up to 15 months after SARS-CoV-2 infection offers higher neutralizing antibody titers than 2 vaccine doses in SARS-CoV-2-naive individuals.

The Glycan Hole Area of HIV-1 Envelope Trimers Contributes Prominently to the Induction of Autologous Neutralization

The human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) trimeric envelope glycoprotein (Env) is heavily glycosylated, creating a dense glycan shield that protects the underlying peptidic surface from antibody recognition. The absence of conserved glycans, due to missing potential N-linked glycosylation sites (PNGS), can result in strain-specific, autologous neutralizing antibody (NAb) responses. Here, we sought to gain a deeper understanding of the autologous neutralization by introducing holes in the otherwise dense glycan shields of the AMC011 and AMC016 SOSIP trimers. Specifically, when we knocked out the N130 and N289 glycans, which are absent from the well-characterized B41 SOSIP trimer, we observed stronger autologous NAb responses. We also analyzed the highly variable NAb responses induced in rabbits by diverse SOSIP trimers from subtypes A, B, and C. Statistical analysis, using linear regression, revealed that the cumulative area exposed on a trimer by glycan holes correlates with the magnitude of the autologous NAb response. IMPORTANCE Forty years after the first description of HIV-1, the search for a protective vaccine is still ongoing. The sole target for antibodies that can neutralize the virus are the trimeric envelope glycoproteins (Envs) located on the viral surface. The glycoprotein surface is covered with glycans that shield off the underlying protein components from recognition by the immune system. However, the Env trimers of some viral strains have holes in the glycan shield. Immunized animals developed antibodies against such glycan holes. These antibodies are generally strain specific. Here, we sought to gain a deeper understanding of what drives these specific immune responses. First, we show that strain-specific neutralizing antibody responses can be increased by creating artificial holes in the glycan shield. Second, when studying a diverse set of Env trimers with different characteristics, we found that the surface area of the glycan holes contributes prominently to the induction of strain-specific neutralizing antibodies.

Within-host evolutionary dynamics of seasonal and pandemic human influenza A viruses in young children

The evolution of influenza viruses is fundamentally shaped by within-host processes. However, the within-host evolutionary dynamics of influenza viruses remain incompletely understood, in part because most studies have focused on infections in healthy adults based on single timepoint data. Here, we analyzed the within-host evolution of 82 longitudinally sampled individuals, mostly young children, infected with A/H1N1pdm09 or A/H3N2 viruses between 2007 and 2009. For A/H1N1pdm09 infections during the 2009 pandemic, nonsynonymous minority variants were more prevalent than synonymous ones. For A/H3N2 viruses in young children, early infection was dominated by purifying selection. As these infections progressed, nonsynonymous variants typically increased in frequency even when within-host virus titers decreased. Unlike the short-lived infections of adults where de novo within-host variants are rare, longer infections in young children allow for the maintenance of virus diversity via mutation-selection balance creating potentially important opportunities for within-host virus evolution.

Serologic Surveillance and Phylogenetic Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 Infection Among Hospital Health Care Workers

IMPORTANCE

It is unclear when, where, and by whom health care workers (HCWs) working in hospitals are infected with SARS-CoV-2.

OBJECTIVE

To determine how often and in what manner nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 infection occurs in HCW groups with varying exposure to patients with COVID-19.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cohort study comprised 4 weekly measurements of SARS-CoV-2-specific antibodies and collection of questionnaires from March 23 to June 25, 2020, combined with phylogenetic and epidemiologic transmission analyses at 2 university hospitals in the Netherlands. Included individuals were HCWs working in patient care for those with COVID-19, HCWs working in patient care for those without COVID-19, and HCWs not working in patient care. Data were analyzed from August through December 2020.

EXPOSURES

Varying work-related exposure to patients infected with SARS-CoV-2.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The cumulative incidence of and time to SARS-CoV-2 infection, defined as the presence of SARS-CoV-2-specific antibodies in blood samples, were measured.

RESULTS

Among 801 HCWs, there were 439 HCWs working in patient care for those with COVID-19, 164 HCWs working in patient care for those without COVID-19, and 198 HCWs not working in patient care. There were 580 (72.4%) women, and the median (interquartile range) age was 36 (29-50) years. The incidence of SARS-CoV-2 was increased among HCWs working in patient care for those with COVID-19 (54 HCWs [13.2%; 95% CI, 9.9%-16.4%]) compared with HCWs working in patient care for those without COVID-19 (11 HCWs [6.7%; 95% CI, 2.8%-10.5%]; hazard ratio [HR], 2.25; 95% CI, 1.17-4.30) and HCWs not working in patient care (7 HCWs [3.6%; 95% CI, 0.9%-6.1%]; HR, 3.92; 95% CI, 1.79-8.62). Among HCWs caring for patients with COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2 cumulative incidence was increased among HCWs working on COVID-19 wards (32 of 134 HCWs [25.7%; 95% CI, 17.6%-33.1%]) compared with HCWs working on intensive care units (13 of 186 HCWs [7.1%; 95% CI, 3.3%-10.7%]; HR, 3.64; 95% CI, 1.91-6.94), and HCWs working in emergency departments (7 of 102 HCWs [8.0%; 95% CI, 2.5%-13.1%]; HR, 3.29; 95% CI, 1.52-7.14). Epidemiologic data combined with phylogenetic analyses on COVID-19 wards identified 3 potential HCW-to-HCW transmission clusters. No patient-to-HCW transmission clusters could be identified in transmission analyses.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This study found that HCWs working on COVID-19 wards were at increased risk for nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 infection with an important role for HCW-to-HCW transmission. These findings suggest that infection among HCWs deserves more consideration in infection prevention practice.

Hepatitis C Virus Transmission Among Men Who Have Sex With Men in Amsterdam: External Introductions May Complicate Microelimination Efforts

BACKGROUND

It is unclear whether unrestricted access and high uptake of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) is sufficient to eliminate hepatitis C virus (HCV) in high-risk populations such as men who have sex with men (MSM). This study presents historic trends and current dynamics of HCV transmission among MSM in Amsterdam based on sequence data collected between 1994 and 2019.

METHODS

Hypervariable region 1 sequences of 232 primary HCV infections and 56 reinfections were obtained from 244 MSM in care in Amsterdam. Maximum-likelihood phylogenies were constructed for HCV genotypes separately, and time-scaled phylogenies were constructed using a Bayesian coalescent approach. Transmission clusters were determined by Phydelity and trends in the proportion of unclustered sequences over time were evaluated using logistic regression.

RESULTS

Seventy-six percent (218/288) of sequences were part of 21 transmission clusters and 13 transmission pairs. Transmission cluster sizes ranged from 3 to 44 sequences. Most clusters were introduced between the late 1990s and early 2010s and no new clusters were introduced after 2012. The proportion of unclustered sequences of subtype 1a, the most prevalent subtype in this population, fluctuated between 0% and 20% in 2009-2012, after which an increase occurred from 0% in 2012 to 50% in 2018.

CONCLUSIONS

The proportion of external introductions of HCV infections among MSM in Amsterdam has recently increased, coinciding with high DAA uptake. Frequent international transmission events will likely complicate local microelimination efforts. Therefore, international collaboration combined with international scale-up of prevention, testing, and treatment of HCV infections (including reinfections) is warranted, in particular for local microelimination efforts.

An epidemiological surveillance of hand foot and mouth disease in paediatric patients and in community: A Singapore retrospective cohort study, 2013-2018

Background

While hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is primarily self-resolving—soaring incidence rate of symptomatic HFMD effectuates economic burden in the Asia-Pacific region. Singapore has seen a conspicuous rise in the number of HFMD cases from 2010s. Here, we aims to identify the serology and genotypes responsible for such outbreaks in hospitals and childcare facilities.

Methods

We studied symptomatic paediatric HFMD cases from 2013 to 2018 in Singapore. Surveillance for subclinical enterovirus infections was also performed in childcares at the same time period.

Results

Genotyping 101 symptomatic HFMD samples revealed CV-A6 as the major etiological agent for recent outbreaks. We detected infections with CV-A6 (41.0%), EV-A71 (7%), CV-A16 (3.0%), coxsackievirus A2, CV-A2 (1.0%) and coxsackievirus A10, CV-A10 (1.0%). Phylogenetic analysis of local CV-A6 strains revealed a high level of heterogeneity compared against others worldwide, dissimilar to other HFMD causative enteroviruses for which the dominant strains and genotypes are highly region specific. We detected sub-clinical enterovirus infections in childcare centres; 17.1% (n = 245) tested positive for enterovirus in saliva, without HFMD indicative symptoms at the point of sample collection.

Conclusions

CV-A6 remained as the dominant HFMD causative strain in Singapore. Silent subclinical enteroviral infections were detected and warrant further investigations.

In most cases, Hand Foot and Mouth Disease or HFMD typically manifest in mild fever along with sore throat and rashes on the body. From 2010 onwards, Singapore has seen a steady increase in the case number of HFMD reaching tens of thousands in recent years. HFMD is caused by intestinal viruses and in this study, we established with molecular surveillance methods that one of the causative serotypes, CV-A6 is the major etiological agent for HFMD in Singapore for the current decade. We discovered that circulating enterovirus, CV-A6 in Singapore share similarities in genetic make-up to those currently circulating strains found worldwide and found to be especially close to the ones in neighbouring countries. HFMD spreads from person to person, especially in high-risk areas such as childcare centers where children congregate. Therefore, we conducted saliva collections routinely from childcare centers across Singapore and found that subclinical enterovirus infections have also been prevailing in clusters, occurring silently and unnoticed.

Possible host-adaptation of SARS-CoV-2 due to improved ACE2 receptor binding in mink

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections on mink farms are increasingly observed in several countries, leading to the massive culling of animals on affected farms. Recent studies showed multiple (anthropo)zoonotic transmission events between humans and mink on these farms. Mink-derived SARS-CoV-2 sequences from The Netherlands and Denmark contain multiple substitutions in the S protein receptor binding domain (RBD). Molecular modeling showed that these substitutions increase the mean binding energy, suggestive of potential adaptation of the SARS-CoV-2 S protein to the mink angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptor. These substitutions could possibly also impact human ACE2 binding affinity as well as humoral immune responses directed to the RBD region of the SARS-CoV-2 S protein in humans. We wish to highlight these observations to raise awareness and urge for the continued surveillance of mink (and other animal)-related infections.

Longitudinal sampling is required to maximize detection of intrahost A/H3N2 virus variants

Seasonal human influenza viruses continually change antigenically to escape from neutralizing antibodies. It remains unclear how genetic variation in the intrahost virus population and selection at the level of individual hosts translates to the fast-paced evolution observed at the global level because emerging intrahost antigenic variants are rarely detected. We tracked intrahost variants in the hemagglutinin and neuraminidase surface proteins using longitudinally collected samples from 52 patients infected by A/H3N2 influenza virus, mostly young children, who received oseltamivir treatment. We identified emerging putative antigenic variants and oseltamivir-resistant variants, most of which remained detectable in samples collected at subsequent days, and identified variants that emerged intrahost immediately prior to increases in global rates. In contrast to most putative antigenic variants, oseltamivir-resistant variants rapidly increased to high frequencies in the virus population. Importantly, the majority of putative antigenic variants and oseltamivir-resistant variants were first detectable four or more days after onset of symptoms or start of treatment, respectively. Our observations demonstrate that de novo variants emerge, and may be positively selected, during the course of infection. Additionally, based on the 4–7 days post-treatment delay in emergence of oseltamivir-resistant variants in six out of the eight individuals with such variants, we find that limiting sample collection for routine surveillance and diagnostic testing to early timepoints after onset of symptoms can potentially preclude detection of emerging, positively selected variants.

Yield of Screening for COVID-19 in Asymptomatic Patients Before Elective or Emergency Surgery Using Chest CT and RT-PCR (SCOUT): Multicenter Study

OBJECTIVE

To determine the yield of preoperative screening for COVID-19 with chest CT and RT-PCR in patients without COVID-19 symptoms.

SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA

Many centers are currently screening surgical patients for COVID-19 using either chest CT, RT-PCR or both, due to the risk for worsened surgical outcomes and nosocomial spread. The optimal design and yield of such a strategy are currently unknown.

METHODS

This multicenter study included consecutive adult patients without COVID-19 symptoms who underwent preoperative screening using chest CT and RT-PCR before elective or emergency surgery under general anesthesia.

RESULTS

A total of 2093 patients without COVID-19 symptoms were included in 14 participating centers; 1224 were screened by CT and RT-PCR and 869 by chest CT only. The positive yield of screening using a combination of chest CT and RT-PCR was 1.5% [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.8-2.1]. Individual yields were 0.7% (95% CI: 0.2-1.1) for chest CT and 1.1% (95% CI: 0.6-1.7) for RT-PCR; the incremental yield of chest CT was 0.4%. In relation to COVID-19 community prevalence, up to ∼6% positive RT-PCR was found for a daily hospital admission rate >1.5 per 100,000 inhabitants, and around 1.0% for lower prevalence.

CONCLUSIONS

One in every 100 patients without COVID-19 symptoms tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 with RT-PCR; this yield increased in conjunction with community prevalence. The added value of chest CT was limited. Preoperative screening allowed us to take adequate precautions for SARS-CoV-2 positive patients in a surgical population, whereas negative patients needed only routine procedures.

Incomplete genetic reconstitution of B cell pools contributes to prolonged immunosuppression after measles

Measles is a disease caused by the highly infectious measles virus (MeV) that results in both viremia and lymphopenia. Lymphocyte counts recover shortly after the disappearance of measles-associated rash, but immunosuppression can persist for months to years after infection, resulting in increased incidence of secondary infections. Animal models and in vitro studies have proposed various immunological factors underlying this prolonged immune impairment, but the precise mechanisms operating in humans are unknown. Using B cell receptor (BCR) sequencing of human peripheral blood lymphocytes before and after MeV infection, we identified two immunological consequences from measles underlying immunosuppression: (i) incomplete reconstitution of the naïve B cell pool leading to immunological immaturity and (ii) compromised immune memory to previously encountered pathogens due to depletion of previously expanded B memory clones. Using a surrogate model of measles in ferrets, we investigated the clinical consequences of morbillivirus infection and demonstrated a depletion of vaccine-acquired immunity to influenza virus, leading to a compromised immune recall response and increased disease severity after secondary influenza virus challenge. Our results show that MeV infection causes changes in naïve and memory B lymphocyte diversity that persist after the resolution of clinical disease and thus contribute to compromised immunity to previous infections or vaccinations. This work highlights the importance of MeV vaccination not only for the control of measles but also for the maintenance of herd immunity to other pathogens, which can be compromised after MeV infection.

Genetic and antigenic characterization of influenza A/H5N1 viruses isolated from patients in Indonesia, 2008-2015

Since the initial detection in 2003, Indonesia has reported 200 human cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 (HPAI H5N1), associated with an exceptionally high case fatality rate (84%) compared to other geographical regions affected by other genetic clades of the virus. However, there is limited information on the genetic diversity of HPAI H5N1 viruses, especially those isolated from humans in Indonesia. In this study, the genetic and antigenic characteristics of 35 HPAI H5N1 viruses isolated from humans were analyzed. Full genome sequences were analyzed for the presence of substitutions in the receptor binding site, and polymerase complex, as markers for virulence or human adaptation, as well as antiviral drug resistance substitutions. Only a few substitutions associated with human adaptation were observed, a remarkably low prevalence of the human adaptive substitution PB2-E627K, which is common during human infection with other H5N1 clades and a known virulence marker for avian influenza viruses during human infections. In addition, the antigenic profile of these Indonesian HPAI H5N1 viruses was determined using serological analysis and antigenic cartography. Antigenic characterization showed two distinct antigenic clusters, as observed previously for avian isolates. These two antigenic clusters were not clearly associated with time of virus isolation. This study provides better insight in genetic diversity of H5N1 viruses during human infection and the presence of human adaptive markers. These findings highlight the importance of evaluating virus genetics for HPAI H5N1 viruses to estimate the risk to human health and the need for increased efforts to monitor the evolution of H5N1 viruses across Indonesia.

Phylogenetic Clustering by Linear Integer Programming (PhyCLIP)

Subspecies nomenclature systems of pathogens are increasingly based on sequence data. The use of phylogenetics to identify and differentiate between clusters of genetically similar pathogens is particularly prevalent in virology from the nomenclature of human papillomaviruses to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5Nx viruses. These nomenclature systems rely on absolute genetic distance thresholds to define the maximum genetic divergence tolerated between viruses designated as closely related. However, the phylogenetic clustering methods used in these nomenclature systems are limited by the arbitrariness of setting intra and intercluster diversity thresholds. The lack of a consensus ground truth to define well-delineated, meaningful phylogenetic subpopulations amplifies the difficulties in identifying an informative distance threshold. Consequently, phylogenetic clustering often becomes an exploratory, ad hoc exercise. Phylogenetic Clustering by Linear Integer Programming (PhyCLIP) was developed to provide a statistically principled phylogenetic clustering framework that negates the need for an arbitrarily defined distance threshold. Using the pairwise patristic distance distributions of an input phylogeny, PhyCLIP parameterizes the intra and intercluster divergence limits as statistical bounds in an integer linear programming model which is subsequently optimized to cluster as many sequences as possible. When applied to the hemagglutinin phylogeny of HPAI H5Nx viruses, PhyCLIP was not only able to recapitulate the current WHO/OIE/FAO H5 nomenclature system but also further delineated informative higher resolution clusters that capture geographically distinct subpopulations of viruses. PhyCLIP is pathogen-agnostic and can be generalized to a wide variety of research questions concerning the identification of biologically informative clusters in pathogen phylogenies. PhyCLIP is freely available at http://github.com/alvinxhan/PhyCLIP, last accessed March 15, 2019.

Inferring putative transmission clusters with Phydelity

Current phylogenetic clustering approaches for identifying pathogen transmission clusters are limited by their dependency on arbitrarily defined genetic distance thresholds for within-cluster divergence. Incomplete knowledge of a pathogen’s underlying dynamics often reduces the choice of distance threshold to an exploratory, ad hoc exercise that is difficult to standardise across studies. Phydelity is a new tool for the identification of transmission clusters in pathogen phylogenies. It identifies groups of sequences that are more closely related than the ensemble distribution of the phylogeny under a statistically principled and phylogeny-informed framework, without the introduction of arbitrary distance thresholds. Relative to other distance threshold- and model-based methods, Phydelity outputs clusters with higher purity and lower probability of misclassification in simulated phylogenies. Applying Phydelity to empirical datasets of hepatitis B and C virus infections showed that Phydelity identified clusters with better correspondence to individuals that are more likely to be linked by transmission events relative to other widely used non-parametric phylogenetic clustering methods without the need for parameter calibration. Phydelity is generalisable to any pathogen and can be used to identify putative direct transmission events. Phydelity is freely available at https://github.com/alvinxhan/Phydelity.

Intense interseasonal influenza outbreaks, Australia, 2018/19

BackgroundInterseasonal influenza outbreaks are not unusual in countries with temperate climates and well-defined influenza seasons. Usually, these are small and diminish before the main influenza season begins. However, the 2018/19 summer-autumn interseasonal influenza period in Australia saw unprecedented large and widespread influenza outbreaks.AimOur objective was to determine the extent of the intense 2018/19 interseasonal influenza outbreaks in Australia epidemiologically and examine the genetic, antigenic and structural properties of the viruses responsible for these outbreaks.MethodsThis observational study combined the epidemiological and virological surveillance data obtained from the Australian Government Department of Health, the New South Wales Ministry of Health, sentinel outpatient surveillance, public health laboratories and data generated by the World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza in Melbourne and the Singapore Agency for Science, Technology and Research.ResultsThere was a record number of laboratory-confirmed influenza cases during the interseasonal period November 2018 to May 2019 (n= 85,286; 5 times the previous 3-year average) and also more institutional outbreaks, hospitalisations and deaths, than what is normally seen.ConclusionsThe unusually large interseasonal influenza outbreaks in 2018/19 followed a mild 2018 influenza season and resulted in a very early start to the 2019 influenza season across Australia. The reasons for this unusual event have yet to be fully elucidated but are likely to be a complex mix of climatic, virological and host immunity-related factors. These outbreaks reinforce the need for year-round surveillance of influenza, even in temperate climates with strong seasonality patterns.

Genetic diversity and host adaptation of avian H5N1 influenza viruses during human infection

The continuing pandemic threat posed by avian influenza A/H5N1 viruses calls for improved insights into their evolution during human infection. We performed whole genome deep sequencing of respiratory specimens from 44 H5N1-infected individuals from Indonesia and found substantial within-host viral diversity. At nearly 30% of genome positions multiple amino acids were observed within or across samples, including positions implicated in aerosol transmission between ferrets. Amino acid variants detected our cohort were often found more frequently in available H5N1 sequences of human than avian isolates. We additionally identified previously unreported amino acid variants and multiple variants that increased in proportion over time in available sequential samples. Given the importance of the polymerase complex for host adaptation, we tested 121 amino acid variants found in the PB2, PB1 and PA subunits for their effects on polymerase activity in human cells. We identified multiple single amino acid variants in all three polymerase subunits that substantially increase polymerase activity including some with effects comparable to that of the widely recognized adaption and virulence marker PB2-E627 K. These results indicate highly dynamic evolutionary processes during human H5N1 virus infection and the potential existence of previously undocumented adaptive pathways.

Quantifying the molecular origins of opposite solvent effects on protein-protein interactions

Although the nature of solvent-protein interactions is generally weak and non-specific, addition of cosolvents such as denaturants and osmolytes strengthens protein-protein interactions for some proteins, whereas it weakens protein-protein interactions for others. This is exemplified by the puzzling observation that addition of glycerol oppositely affects the association constants of two antibodies, D1.3 and D44.1, with lysozyme. To resolve this conundrum, we develop a methodology based on the thermodynamic principles of preferential interaction theory and the quantitative characterization of local protein solvation from molecular dynamics simulations. We find that changes of preferential solvent interactions at the protein-protein interface quantitatively account for the opposite effects of glycerol on the antibody-antigen association constants. Detailed characterization of local protein solvation in the free and associated protein states reveals how opposite solvent effects on protein-protein interactions depend on the extent of dewetting of the protein-protein contact region and on structural changes that alter cooperative solvent-protein interactions at the periphery of the protein-protein interface. These results demonstrate the direct relationship between macroscopic solvent effects on protein-protein interactions and atom-scale solvent-protein interactions, and establish a general methodology for predicting and understanding solvent effects on protein-protein interactions in diverse biological environments.

Protein-associated cation clusters in aqueous arginine solutions and their effects on protein stability and size

Arginine is one of the most prominent residues in protein interactions, and arginine hydrochloride is widely used as an additive in protein solutions because of its exceptional effects on protein association and folding. The molecular origins of arginine effects on protein processes remain, however, controversial, and little is known about the molecular interactions between arginine cations and protein surfaces in aqueous arginine solutions. In this study, we report a unique biochemical phenomenon whereby clusters of arginine cations (Arg(+)) are associated with a protein surface. The formation of protein-associated Arg(+) clusters is initiated by Arg(+) ions that associate with specific protein surface loci through cooperative interactions with protein guanidinium and carboxyl groups. Molecular dynamics simulations indicate that protein-associated Arg(+) ions subsequently attract other Arg(+) ions and form dynamic cation clusters that extend further than 10 Å from the protein surface. The effects of arginine on the thermal stability and size of lysozyme and ovalbumin are measured over a wide concentration range (0 to 2 M), and we find that the formation of protein-associated Arg(+) clusters consistently explains the complex effects of arginine on protein stability and size. This study elucidates the molecular mechanisms and implications of cluster formation of Arg(+) ions at a protein surface, and the findings of this study may be used to manipulate synthetic and biological systems through arginine-derived groups.