Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022-2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050.

METHODS

Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline.

FINDINGS

In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8-63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0-45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2-34·1] to 15·5% [13·7-17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4-40·3) to 41·1% (33·9-48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6-25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5-43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5-17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7-11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7-27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5-6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2-26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [-0·6 to 3·6]).

INTERPRETATION

Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Accurate assessments of current and future fertility-including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions-are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios.

METHODS

To estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10-54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression-Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values-a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy-by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007-21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline.

FINDINGS

During the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63-5·06) to 2·23 (2·09-2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137-147), declining to 129 million (121-138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1-canonically considered replacement-level fertility-in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7-29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59-2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25-1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6-43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1-59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions-decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7-25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3-19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4-10·1) in 2100-but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40-1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35-1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction.

INTERPRETATION

Fertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic.

FINDINGS

Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44-2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64-3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7-17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8-6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7-10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0-234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7-198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3-214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0-171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3-51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9-52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54-1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5-9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0-19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9-21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0-17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7-27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6-63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4-64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6-2·9) between 2019 and 2021.

INTERPRETATION

Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk-outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk-outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk-outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk-outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws.

FINDINGS

Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7-9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4-9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7-6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8-6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8-6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0-4 years and 5-14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9-27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5-28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3-56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9-21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3-12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6-1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1-1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4-78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2-72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP).

INTERPRETATION

Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period.

METHODS

22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.

INTERPRETATION

Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality burden of non-COVID-19 lower respiratory infections and aetiologies, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Lower respiratory infections (LRIs) are a major global contributor to morbidity and mortality. In 2020-21, non-pharmaceutical interventions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic reduced not only the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, but also the transmission of other LRI pathogens. Tracking LRI incidence and mortality, as well as the pathogens responsible, can guide health-system responses and funding priorities to reduce future burden. We present estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 of the burden of non-COVID-19 LRIs and corresponding aetiologies from 1990 to 2021, inclusive of pandemic effects on the incidence and mortality of select respiratory viruses, globally, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories.

METHODS

We estimated mortality, incidence, and aetiology attribution for LRI, defined by the GBD as pneumonia or bronchiolitis, not inclusive of COVID-19. We analysed 26 259 site-years of mortality data using the Cause of Death Ensemble model to estimate LRI mortality rates. We analysed all available age-specific and sex-specific data sources, including published literature identified by a systematic review, as well as household surveys, hospital admissions, health insurance claims, and LRI mortality estimates, to generate internally consistent estimates of incidence and prevalence using DisMod-MR 2.1. For aetiology estimation, we analysed multiple causes of death, vital registration, hospital discharge, microbial laboratory, and literature data using a network analysis model to produce the proportion of LRI deaths and episodes attributable to the following pathogens: Acinetobacter baumannii, Chlamydia spp, Enterobacter spp, Escherichia coli, fungi, group B streptococcus, Haemophilus influenzae, influenza viruses, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Legionella spp, Mycoplasma spp, polymicrobial infections, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), Staphylococcus aureus, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and other viruses (ie, the aggregate of all viruses studied except influenza and RSV), as well as a residual category of other bacterial pathogens.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2021, we estimated 344 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 325-364) incident episodes of LRI, or 4350 episodes (4120-4610) per 100 000 population, and 2·18 million deaths (1·98-2·36), or 27·7 deaths (25·1-29·9) per 100 000. 502 000 deaths (406 000-611 000) were in children younger than 5 years, among which 254 000 deaths (197 000-320 000) occurred in countries with a low Socio-demographic Index. Of the 18 modelled pathogen categories in 2021, S pneumoniae was responsible for the highest proportions of LRI episodes and deaths, with an estimated 97·9 million (92·1-104·0) episodes and 505 000 deaths (454 000-555 000) globally. The pathogens responsible for the second and third highest episode counts globally were other viral aetiologies (46·4 million [43·6-49·3] episodes) and Mycoplasma spp (25·3 million [23·5-27·2]), while those responsible for the second and third highest death counts were S aureus (424 000 [380 000-459 000]) and K pneumoniae (176 000 [158 000-194 000]). From 1990 to 2019, the global all-age non-COVID-19 LRI mortality rate declined by 41·7% (35·9-46·9), from 56·5 deaths (51·3-61·9) to 32·9 deaths (29·9-35·4) per 100 000. From 2019 to 2021, during the COVID-19 pandemic and implementation of associated non-pharmaceutical interventions, we estimated a 16·0% (13·1-18·6) decline in the global all-age non-COVID-19 LRI mortality rate, largely accounted for by a 71·8% (63·8-78·9) decline in the number of influenza deaths and a 66·7% (56·6-75·3) decline in the number of RSV deaths.

INTERPRETATION

Substantial progress has been made in reducing LRI mortality, but the burden remains high, especially in low-income and middle-income countries. During the COVID-19 pandemic, with its associated non-pharmaceutical interventions, global incident LRI cases and mortality attributable to influenza and RSV declined substantially. Expanding access to health-care services and vaccines, including S pneumoniae, H influenzae type B, and novel RSV vaccines, along with new low-cost interventions against S aureus, could mitigate the LRI burden and prevent transmission of LRI-causing pathogens.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, and Department of Health and Social Care (UK).

Global estimates on the number of people blind or visually impaired by glaucoma: A meta-analysis from 2000 to 2020

OBJECTIVES

To estimate global and regional trends from 2000 to 2020 of the number of persons visually impaired by glaucoma and their proportion of the total number of vision-impaired individuals.

METHODS

A systematic review and meta-analysis of published population studies and grey literature from 2000 to 2020 was carried out to estimate global and regional trends in number of people with vision loss due to glaucoma. Moderate or severe vision loss (MSVI) was defined as visual acuity of 6/60 or better but <6/18 (moderate) and visual acuity of 3/60 or better but <6/60 (severe vision loss). Blindness was defined as presenting visual acuity <3/60.

RESULTS

Globally, in 2020, 3.61 million people were blind and nearly 4.14 million were visually impaired by glaucoma. Glaucoma accounted for 8.39% (95% uncertainty intervals [UIs]: 6.54, 10.29) of all blindness and 1.41% (95% UI: 1.10, 1.75) of all MSVI. Regionally, the highest proportion of blindness relating to glaucoma was found in high-income countries (26.12% [95% UI: 20.72, 32.09]), while the region with the highest age-standardized prevalence of glaucoma-related blindness and MSVI was Sub-Saharan Africa. Between 2000 and 2020, global age-standardized prevalence of glaucoma-related blindness among adults ≥50 years decreased by 26.06% among males (95% UI: 25.87, 26.24), and by 21.75% among females (95% UI: 21.54, 21.96), while MSVI due to glaucoma increased by 3.7% among males (95% UI: 3.42, 3.98), and by 7.3% in females (95% UI: 7.01, 7.59).

CONCLUSIONS

Within the last two decades, glaucoma has remained a major cause of blindness globally and regionally.

Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Disorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

We estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined.

FINDINGS

Globally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378-521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20-3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5-45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7-26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6-38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5-32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7-2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer.

INTERPRETATION

As the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Competency based medical education as an accelerator to end tuberculosis (End TB) in India

Tuberculosis is a major public health challenge in India and has been targeted for elimination. The National Tuberculosis Elimination Program (NTEP), in its all-previous forms has been one of the leading national health programs with the institutionalized engagement of medical colleges. This article outlines the mechanisms for medical college engagement in NTEP and discusses how the recent adoption of competency based medical education (CBME) for graduate medical education provides an opportunity for strengthening medical college participation in NTEP. The authors propose that for an accelerated progress towards 'End TB' in India, there is need for scaling up faculty development programs, focusing upon operational and implementation research, adopting a practical approach in designing curriculum for graduate medical teaching and creation of online repository of training material as well as the data bank of post-graduate theses, and other published and unpublished research work. Alongside, these efforts need to be supplemented by the professional associations of medical specialties and the governments through organizing annual national scientific and policy forum; and the capacity building of postgraduate students and faculty members in operational research, amongst others. The adoption of CBME has-arguably- created an opportunity for innovations at medical college level to support End TB. The learnings could also be utilized for enhanced engagement of medical colleges in other national health programs. India's experience on medical college engagement in tuberculosis elimination could serve as a 'good practice' for TB endemic countries in other parts of the world.

Pre-Conceptional and Antenatal Care for Improved Newborn and Child Survival in India: A Review

There is sufficient scientific evidence that quality pre-conceptional care and antenatal care can improve newborn survival. This review was conducted to understand the concept of pre-conceptional care and its implementation status in India. The review documents the specific interventions that have been proven to effectively improve pregnancy outcome when provided as pre-conception care. Healthcare providers, particularly obstetricians/gynecologists and general physicians, should prioritize pre-conception care as an essential component of healthcare for women. However, the lack of continuum of care and program linkages are some of the key barriers in ensuring pre-conceptional and ante-natal care in India. Culturally and linguistically appropriate care should be provided to ensure that all women can access and understand the information and services needed to optimize their reproductive health and improve pregnancy outcomes. Prioritizing pre-conception and prenatal care, healthcare providers can improve maternal and fetal outcomes, reduce healthcare costs, and promote lifelong health for women and their families. The primary healthcare reforms being done in India can be and should be used to strengthen pre-conceptional and ante-natal care services and quality.

Burden, Differentials and Causes of Stillbirths in India: A Systematic Review and Meta Analysis

India contributes the highest absolute number of stillbirths in the world. This systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted to synthesize the burden, timing and causes of stillbirths in India. Forty-nine reports from 46 studies conducted in 21 Indian states and Union Territories were included. It was found that there was no uniformity/standardization in the definition of stillbirths and in the classification system used to assign the cause. The share of antepartum stillbirths was estimated to be two-third while remaining were intrapartum stillbirths. Maternal conditions and fetal causes were found to be the leading cause of stillbirth in India. The maternal condition was assigned as the commonest cause (25%) followed by fetal (14%), placental cause (13%), congenital malformation (6%) and intrapartum complications (4%). Approximately 20% of the stillbirths were assigned as unknown or unexplained. This review demonstrates that there is a paucity of quality stillbirth data in India. Other than the state level differences in stillbirth rates, no other data is available on inequities in stillbirths in India. There is an urgent need for strengthening availability and quality of stillbirth data in India on both stillbirth rates as well as the causes. There is a need to conduct additional research to know the timing of the stillbirths, causes of death and actual burden. India needs to strengthen stillbirth audits along with registry to find out the modifiable factors and delays for making country specific preventive strategies. The policy makers, academic community and researchers need to work together to ensure accelerated and equitable reduction in stillbirths in India.

Seasonal and District Level Geo-Spatial Variations in Stillbirth Rates in India: An Analysis of Secondary Data

Stillbirth is a major public health problem across the world as well as in India. The programmatic interventions to tackle stillbirth require granular data upto local levels. The Health Management Information System (HMIS) in India is one of the best sources of granular data on stillbirth. This analysis was conducted using HMIS stillbirth data of three pre-pandemic years 2017-2020 to study the geo-spatial patterns of stillbirth at district level in nine states of India, forming a high burden cluster of four central Indian states and a low burden cluster of five southern states. Geo-spatial variation at sub-district level was studied for Maharashtra given the ready availability of sub-district shapefiles required for such analysis. The analysis also explores the seasonal variations in stillbirths at all-India level. A granular intra-cluster spatial pattern of stillbirth was observed in all states analyzed, with a clear hotspot across a few districts in Odisha and Chhattisgarh (>20 stillbirths/1,000 total births in 2019-20). Even in the southern cluster, the hotspots (8-20 stillbirths/1,000 total births) were found. Availability of sub-district level data in Maharashtra helped to identify intra-state regional variations in stillbirth with high prevalence in certain district clusters. In temporal terms, stillbirths exhibit a regular peak during August-October and a dip during February-April which is inclined with the birth seasonality patterns. This review and analysis underscore the need for more granular data availability, regular analysis of such data by expert and program managers, more decentralized and context specific programme intervention both in locational and seasonal terms.

Triple Burden of Malnutrition among Children in India: Current Scenario and the Way Forward

The triple burden of malnutrition (undernutrition, overnutrition and micronutrient deficiency) or TBM among under-five (U5) children is an increasingly recognised public health challenge. A literature search was conducted to identify studies published from 1976 to 2022, which had focused on information regarding different factors of child malnutrition. The findings were analysed and contextualised from policy and programmatic perspective. There is a high burden of various forms of malnutrition in India. Insufficient dietary intake and illnesses are immediate and most common causes of triple burden of malnutrition (TBM): (undernutrition, overnutrition and micronutrient deficiency). The other key factors associated with the TBM are lifestyle, nutritional practices, unsafe water, food insecurity, lack of sanitation & basic hygiene, unhealthy feeding & caring practices, inadequate health infrastructure, and suboptimal implementation of government nutrition schemes etc. There is scientific evidence that TBM has long term consequences on physical and mental development of children and has high cost to any society. The situation of TBM persists inspite of multiple ongoing government programs to tackle these challenges. The health service provision needs to move from the first 1,000 d to the first 3,000 d as well as focus on the interventions aimed at early childhood development. Multi-sectoral interventions through Anganwadi centres and schools (through education department) need to be conducted. The public health programs and primary healthcare services need to be realigned and health interventions should be implemented along with tackling social determinants of health and sustained community engagement and participation. Tackling TBM should be made a political priority. The life cycle approach for healthier children and society needs to be fully implemented.

Stillbirths in India: Current Status, Challenges, and the Way Forward

Stillbirth is a major public health challenge and a multifaceted issue that leads to significant financial, physical, mental, financial, and psychosocial implications. India has made substantial progress in stillbirth reduction. Yet, many challenges continue and the absolute number of stillbirths remain high. This paper presents the national and state level burden of stillbirths and discusses about the magnitude, risk factors, causes and inequities in stillbirths. A few additional approaches for reduction of preventable stillbirths have been suggested. The authors argue that the institutional mechanisms need to be developed to ensure all stillbirths are registered in a timely manner. There is a need for standard definition for classification of stillbirths and document the cause, to roll-out suitable interventions. There is a need for state specific interventions to address different causes, as Indian states have variable stillbirth rates. The stillbirth audits should be institutionalised as a continuous quality improvement exercise to bring local accountability and reduce stillbirth rate. The healthcare system and providers must be trained to offer bereavement support to the affected mothers and families. These approaches should be implemented through primary healthcare system as well.

Impact of Climate Change, Food Insecurity, and COVID-19 on the Health of Neonates and Children: A Narrative Review

Climate change, food insecurity, and epidemics affect all population sub-groups. This article reviews the current evidence on the relationships between climate change, food insecurity, and the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of newborn and child health. The authors searched Medline, PsycINFO, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), and Scopus databases using a structured approach. Food insecurity, particularly from the lack of food access and affordability, increased amidst the COVID-19 pandemic. Factors such as nationwide lockdowns, increased unemployment and financial instability, and school closures precipitated food insecurity. Children born to immigrant parents, belonging to racial and ethnic minority groupsor low-income families, and those who were Autistic were highly vulnerable. Climate change also contributes to food insecurity, with increased susceptibility among neonates and children compared to adults. There is a need for further research on the relationships between climate-linked exposures and COVID-19 transmission. Multisectoral collaborations and multilevel interventions are necessary to mobilize local and national resources for mitigating and preventing the synergistic effects of the three concurrent crises. The evidence-informed discourse on this topic can help in improved preparedness and response for future outbreaks and epidemics. The policy interventions for newborn and child survival need to factor in climate change, food insecurity, and emerging diseases.

School Health Services in India: Status, Challenges and the Way Forward

Schools provide a crucial platform for health and well-being interventions targeting children and adolescents. Early promotive and preventive initiatives are vital for enabling children and adolescents to reach their optimal potential, thereby adding to the country's social return-on-investment, creating a favourable demographic dividend. This review analyses the evolution of school health initiatives in India, including the current curriculum proposed under the Ayushman Bharat program. The manuscript highlights the challenges, and gaps in implementation of the current school health programs and proposes potential pathways for bridging these gaps for promotion of adolescent well-being. The review also discusses the concept of Health Promoting Schools and suggests adaptations and key recommendations to Indian context regarding 'how' to translate it into on-field reality based on the appraisal of successful case studies from other countries. Though India started school health services more than 100 y ago, the school health programmes in most Indian states are weak and fragmented, with piecemeal health screening with minimal focus on health promotion and well-being. The recently launched School Health and Wellness initiative under the Ayushman Bharat program has lots of promise. However, it needs to be translated into effective implementation to prevent it from meeting the fate of its forerunner programs. The school health program needs to move beyond the screening centric approach and be aspirational and holistic in nature focusing upon the overall well-being of the adolescents. Concerted efforts through intersectoral convergence are needed to optimally utilise the platforms of schools for promotion of adolescent well-being.

Global, regional, and national incidence of six major immune-mediated inflammatory diseases: findings from the global burden of disease study 2019

Background

The causes for immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs) are diverse and the incidence trends of IMIDs from specific causes are rarely studied. The study aims to investigate the pattern and trend of IMIDs from 1990 to 2019.

Methods

We collected detailed information on six major causes of IMIDs, including asthma, inflammatory bowel disease, multiple sclerosis, rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, and atopic dermatitis, between 1990 and 2019, derived from the Global Burden of Disease study in 2019. The average annual percent change (AAPC) in number of incidents and age standardized incidence rate (ASR) on IMIDs, by sex, age, region, and causes, were calculated to quantify the temporal trends.

Findings

In 2019, rheumatoid arthritis, atopic dermatitis, asthma, multiple sclerosis, psoriasis, inflammatory bowel disease accounted 1.59%, 36.17%, 54.71%, 0.09%, 6.84%, 0.60% of overall new IMIDs cases, respectively. The ASR of IMIDs showed substantial regional and global variation with the highest in High SDI region, High-income North America, and United States of America. Throughout human lifespan, the age distribution of incident cases from six IMIDs was quite different. Globally, incident cases of IMIDs increased with an AAPC of 0.68 and the ASR decreased with an AAPC of -0.34 from 1990 to 2019. The incident cases increased across six IMIDs, the ASR of rheumatoid arthritis increased (0.21, 95% CI 0.18, 0.25), while the ASR of asthma (AAPC = -0.41), inflammatory bowel disease (AAPC = -0.72), multiple sclerosis (AAPC = -0.26), psoriasis (AAPC = -0.77), and atopic dermatitis (AAPC = -0.15) decreased. The ASR of overall and six individual IMID increased with SDI at regional and global level. Countries with higher ASR in 1990 experienced a more rapid decrease in ASR.

Interpretation

The incidence patterns of IMIDs varied considerably across the world. Innovative prevention and integrative management strategy are urgently needed to mitigate the increasing ASR of rheumatoid arthritis and upsurging new cases of other five IMIDs, respectively.

Funding

The Global Burden of Disease Study is funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. The project funded by Scientific Research Fund of Sichuan Academy of Medical Sciences & Sichuan Provincial People's Hospital (2022QN38).

Burden of Childhood Injuries in India and Possible Public Health Interventions: A Systematic Review

Childhood injuries are a major public health challenge in India and globally. This systematic review was conducted to understand the burden and spectrum of childhood injuries, with a focus on unintentional injuries, among children 5-14 years of age and to suggest approaches to prevention that can be adopted in the Indian context. This systematic review was conducted with the standard approach and use of keywords. A total of 33 studies which were found to be relevant were analyzed. Road traffic accidents (RTAs) contribute to nearly 85% of all unintentional injuries and related deaths and 90% of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost in developing countries. Poor traffic regulation, heavy traffic load, and poor skill of identifying the dangerous road crossing sites make the children's age group vulnerable and prone to RTA. Children with poor skill of identification and response to dangerous road crossing sites, along with heavy unregulated traffic were found to be the major reasons for such accidents and make this age group more vulnerable. Public health-based prevention approaches need to be based upon legislation, regulation, and enforcement, as well as environmental modification, education and skill development, emergency medical care using levels of prevention, and principles of targeted prevention to effectively address child health challenges. Addressing child injuries should be a key component of all endeavors aimed at enhancing child mortality and morbidity rates, as well as the overall welfare of children, both at the national and global levels. It is imperative to prioritize policies focused on preventing unintentional injuries across all age groups, with particular attention to children.

Key findings from NFHS-5 India report: Observing trends of health indicators between NFHS-4 and NFHS-5

The National Health Family Survey (NFHS) is one of the largest cross-sectional surveys in the world and plays a very important role in seeing the health sector's growth in India. Its comprehensiveness in data points serves as a baseline for policymakers to amend or continue the health policy at the national and state levels. It is also imperative to look up the survey's major findings and compare the same with the previous survey finding to obtain a trend (positive/negative) of the placed data indicators. In writing this information, we aim to provide a researched paper to undergraduates and postgraduates in medical education to identify the trends or gap pockets in NFHS-4 and NFHS-5. These findings might help them as an educational piece of work and further research evidence in their local community. Also, the present work is the compilation of demographic characteristics and major health indicators.

Universal health coverage in India and health technology assessment: current status and the way forward

In India, there is a renewed emphasis on Universal Health Coverage (UHC). Alongside this, Health Technology Assessment (HTA) is an important tool for advancing UHC. The development and application of HTA in India, including capacity building and establishing institutional mechanisms. We emphasized using the HTA approach within two components of the Ayushman Bharat programme, and the section concludes with lessons learned and the next steps. The UHC has increased the importance of selecting and implementing effective technologies and interventions within national health systems, particularly in the context of limited resources. To maximize the use of limited resources and produce reliable scientific assessments, developing and enhancing national capacity must be based on established best practices, information exchange between different sectors, and collaborative approaches. A more potent mechanism and capacity for HTA in India would accelerate the country's progress toward UHC.

Factors Influencing Monkeypox Vaccination: A Cue to Policy Implementation

BACKGROUND

Following the mpox 2022 outbreak, several high-income countries have developed plans with inclusion criteria for vaccination against the mpox disease. This study was carried out to map the factors influencing mpox vaccination uptake to help address the challenges and increase vaccination confidence.

METHODS

This was a study based on Tweet analysis. The VADER, Text Blob, and Flair analyzers were adopted for sentiment analysis. The "Levesque conceptual framework for healthcare access" was adopted to evaluate the factors impacting access and the decision to get mpox vaccination. Consolidated Criteria for Reporting Qualitative Research (COREQ) criteria were adopted.

FINDINGS

A total of 149,133 tweets were extracted between 01/05/2022 and 23/09/2022. Around 1% of the random tweets were used for qualitative analysis. Of the 149,113, tweets were classified as positive, negative and neutral, respectively, by (a) VADER: (55,040) 37.05%, (44,395) 29.89%, and (49,106) 33.06%, (b) TextBlob: (70,900) 47.73%, (22,729) 15.30%, and (54,921) 36.97%, and (c) Flair: (31,389) 21.13%, (117,152) 78.87%, and 0.00%. Sentiment trajectories revealed that communication, stigmatization, accessibility to and availability of vaccines, and concerns about vaccine safety as factors influencing decision-making in the content and flow of tweets.

INTERPRETATION

Twitter is a key surveillance tool for understanding factors influencing decisions and access to mpox vaccination. To address vaccine mistrust and disinformation, a social media-based risk communication plan must be devised. Adopting measures to remove logistical vaccination hurdles is needed. Obtaining fact-based information from credible sources is key to improving public confidence.

Monkeypox Disease Outbreak (2022): Epidemiology, Challenges, and the Way Forward

The biggest-ever outbreak of monkeypox disease in non-endemic countries started in May, 2022. Though no monkeypox case has been reported from India, till mid-June, 2022, yet, considering the rate of spread to the non-endemic countries, there is an urgent need of better understanding of the monkeypox virus and disease epidemiology to help clinicians, public health specialists, and policymakers to be prepared for any eventuality. This review summarises the monkeypox disease epidemiology, clinical features, therapies, vaccines and outlines the measures for preparedness and response for a possible outbreak. The disease is known to cause severe outcome in children, pregnant women, and immunocompromised hosts and this group need to be given special attention. The monkeypox disease outbreak (2022) in non-endemic countries should be used as an opportunity by India and other low and middle income countries to strengthen public health surveillance and health system capacity for outbreak and epidemic preparedness and response.

Cancer prevention and control in India can get a boost through primary health care-based approach: A review

India has a rising burden of cancer with an estimated 70% of the cancers caused by modifiable and preventable risk factors. This review was conducted to document the status, analyse the situation and propose the way forward for cancer prevention in India. A desk review of the online databases and reports from the government websites was conducted. The ongoing initiatives including cancer registries, medical and health education and training, and community-based programmes were analysed. This review was done from July 2019 to February 2021. Cancers of the breast, cervix, and lip and oral cavity are the three most common malignancies, with distinct regional variations in India and account for 34% of the 1.15 million cancer cases diagnosed annually. The major initiatives were focused initially on cancer treatment and prevention was added nearly a decade ago. Even with those, the scope and coverage of cancer prevention and treatment services has remained in hospitals and urban settings. India needs to build upon the ongoing approach which seems to be focused on "tracking the cancer, teaching the future and helping the masses" by implementing non-vertical primary healthcare cancer prevention and control approach. Cancer prevention should be made an integral part of the health interventions, rapidly extended to primary healthcare services and facilities, linked with specialised treatment facilities, as India aims for universal health coverage. The opportunity provided by the Ayushman Bharat Programme launched in 2018 should be leveraged for rapid expansion and effective coverage of cancer prevention and treatment interventions in India.

Monkeypox Disease Outbreak (2022): Epidemiology, Challenges, and the Way Forward

The biggest-ever outbreak of monkeypox disease in non-endemic countries started in May, 2022. Though no monkeypox case has been reported from India, till mid-June, 2022, yet, considering the rate of spread to the non-endemic countries, there is an urgent need of better understanding of the monkeypox virus and disease epidemiology to help clinicians, public health specialists, and policymakers to be prepared for any eventuality. This review summarises the monkeypox disease epidemiology, clinical features, therapies, vaccines and outlines the measures for preparedness and response for a possible outbreak. The disease is known to cause severe outcome in children, pregnant women, and immunocompromised hosts and this group need to be given special attention. The monkeypox disease outbreak (2022) in non-endemic countries should be used as an opportunity by India and other low and middle income countries to strengthen public health surveillance and health system capacity for outbreak and epidemic preparedness and response.

Understanding the phases of vaccine hesitancy during the COVID-19 pandemic

Vaccine hesitancy is an important feature of every vaccination and COVID-19 vaccination is not an exception. During the COVID-19 pandemic, vaccine hesitancy has exhibited different phases and has shown both temporal and spatial variation in these phases. This has likely arisen due to varied socio-behavioural characteristics of humans and their response towards COVID 19 pandemic and its vaccination strategies. This commentary highlights that there are multiple phases of vaccine hesitancy: Vaccine Eagerness, Vaccine Ignorance, Vaccine Resistance, Vaccine Confidence, Vaccine Complacency and Vaccine Apathy. Though the phases seem to be sequential, they may co-exist at the same time in different regions and at different times in the same region. This may be attributed to several factors influencing the phases of vaccine hesitancy. The complexities of the societal reactions need to be understood in full to be addressed better. There is a dire need of different strategies of communication to deal with the various nuances of all of the phases. To address of vaccine hesitancy, an understanding of the societal reactions leading to various phases of vaccine hesitancy is of utmost importance.

Assessment of COVID-19 data reporting in 100+ websites and apps in India

India is among the top three countries in the world both in COVID-19 case and death counts. With the pandemic far from over, timely, transparent, and accessible reporting of COVID-19 data continues to be critical for India's pandemic efforts. We systematically analyze the quality of reporting of COVID-19 data in over one hundred government platforms (web and mobile) from India. Our analyses reveal a lack of granular data in the reporting of COVID-19 surveillance, vaccination, and vacant bed availability. As of 5 June 2021, age and gender distribution are available for less than 22% of cases and deaths, and comorbidity distribution is available for less than 30% of deaths. Amid rising concerns of undercounting cases and deaths in India, our results highlight a patchy reporting of granular data even among the reported cases and deaths. Furthermore, total vaccination stratified by healthcare workers, frontline workers, and age brackets is reported by only 14 out of India's 36 subnationals (states and union territories). There is no reporting of adverse events following immunization by vaccine and event type. By showing what, where, and how much data is missing, we highlight the need for a more responsible and transparent reporting of granular COVID-19 data in India.

Attributes of Standard Treatment Guidelines in Clinical Settings and Public Health Facilities in India

Background

Standard Treatment Guidelines (STGs) are time-tested tool to improve healthcare quality and patient safety. This study was done to review the available guidelines and assess their essential attributes using AGREE reporting checklist 2016.

Methods

Publications from PubMed, World Health Organization, Global Health Regional Libraries, Index Medicus, Google, Google Scholar, and insurers, state/central government portals were searched.

Results

In total, 241 STGs met the inclusion criteria. A range of developers with a varying focus and priorities developed these guidelines (government mostly under national programs 134 (56%); professional associations 67 (28%), academic/research institutions 36 (15%); international agencies 4 [2%]). The government-led guidelines focused on program operations (mainly infections, maternal, and childcare), whereas insurers focused on surgical procedures for protection against fraudulent intentions for claims. The available STGs varied largely in terms of development process rigor, end-user involvement, updation, applicability, etc.; 12% guidelines developed documented GRADE criteria for evidence. Most guidelines focused on the primary care, and only 27 and 7% included treatment at tertiary and secondary levels, respectively, focused on general practitioners.

Conclusion

There is a need for coordinated, and collaborative efforts to generate evidence-based guidelines, facilitate periodic revisions, standardized development process, and the standards for monitoring embedded in the guidelines. A single designated authority for the standard treatment guidelines development and a central web-based repository with free access for clinicians/users will ensure wide access to quality guidelines enhancing acceptance and stewardship.

Access, utilization, perceived quality, and satisfaction with health services at Mohalla (Community) Clinics of Delhi, India

The first Mohalla or Community clinic was set up in July 2015 in Delhi, India. Four hundred and eighty such clinics were set up in Delhi, since then. This review was conducted to synthesize evidence on access, utilization, functioning, and performance of Mohalla clinics. A desk review of secondary data from published research papers and reports was conducted initially from February-May 2020 and updated in August 2020. Eleven studies were included in the final analysis. Studies have documented that more than half to two-third of beneficiaries at these clinics were women, elderly, poor, and with school education up to primary level. One-third to two-third of all beneficiaries had come to the government primary care facility for the first time. A majority who attended clinics lived within 10 min of walking distances. There was high rate of satisfaction (around 90%) with overall services, doctor-patient interaction time and the people were willing to return for future health needs. Most beneficiaries received consultations, medicines, and diagnostics at no cost. A few challenges such as dispensing of medicines for shorter duration, lack of awareness about the exact location of the clinics, and services available among target beneficiaries, and the incomplete records maintenance and reporting system at facilities were identified. Mohalla Clinics of Delhi ensured continuity of primary care and laboratory services during COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. In summary, Mohalla Clinics have made primary care accessible and affordable to under-served population (thus, addressed inequities) and brought attention of policy makers on strengthening and investing on health services. The external evaluations and assessments on the performance of these clinics, with robust methodology are needed. The services through these clinics should be expanded to deliver comprehensive package of primary healthcare with inclusion of preventive, promotive, community outreach, and other public health services.

Electricity Access, Sources, and Reliability at Primary Health Centers in India and Effect on Service Provision: Evidence from Two Nation-wide Surveys

Background:

A large number of government primary health-care facilities (GPHCFs) in India do not have access to the regular electricity supply.

Objectives:

To assess the status and change in electricity access, sources, and reliability at primary health centers (PHCs) in India; and to understand the effect of regular electricity supply on health services provision and on workforce availability and retention.

Materials and Methods:

Secondary analysis of data from the lastest two rounds of district-level household survey (DLHS) in India, conducted in 2007–2008 and 2012–2013.

Results:

Data of 8619 PHCs from DLHS-3 and 8540 PHCs from DLHS-4 were analyzed. The proportion of PHCs with access to electricity increased from 87% to 91%. However, regular electricity supply was available at only 50% of PHCs in 2012–2013, which was an increase from 36% such PHCs in 2007–2008. PHCs with regular electricity supply provided services to 50% more beneficiaries (deliveries and vaccination) than PHCs without regular or no electricity (P ≤ 0.001). Increased access to regular electricity was associated with improved availability and retention of health staff (P = 0.001).

Conclusion:

Government policies should aim to ensure access to regular electricity-supply-beyond just connection from grid-at all GPHCFs, including health sub-centers, PHCs, and community health centers. Indicators on electricity access at GPHCFs could be standardized and integrated into regular health and facility-related surveys as well as in the existing dashboards for real-time data collection. Health policy interventions should be informed by regular data collection and analysis. Improving access to regular electricity supply at GPHCFs can contribute to achieve the goals of National Health Policy of India. This will also help to advance universal health coverage in the country. There are lessons from this study, for other low and middle income countries, on improving health service provision at government health care facilities.

Health & Wellness Centers to Strengthen Primary Health Care in India: Concept, Progress and Ways Forward

In February 2018, the Indian Government announced Ayushman Bharat Program (ABP) with two components of (a) Health and Wellness Centres (HWCs), to deliver comprehensive primary health care (PHC) services to the entire population and (b) Pradhan Mantri Jan Arogya Yojana (PMJAY) for improving access to hospitalization services at secondary and tertiary level health facilities for bottom 40% of total population. The HWC component of ABP aims to upgrade and make 150,000 existing Government Primary health care facilities functional by December 2022. The first HWC was launched on 14 April 2018 and by 31 March 2020, a total 38,595 AB-HWCs were operational across India. This article documents and analyses the key design aspects of HWCs, against core components of PHC & the health system functions. The article reviews the progress and analyses the potential of HWCs to strengthen PHC services and therefore, advance Universal Health Coverage in India. Challenges emerged from COVID-19 pandemic & learnings thus far has also been analyzed to guide the scale up of HWCs in India. It has been argued that effectiveness and success of HWCs will be dependent upon a rapid transition from policy to accelerated implementation stage; focus on both supply and demand side interventions, dedicated and increased funding by both union and state governments; appropriate use of information and communication technology; engagement of community and civil society and other stakeholders, focus on effective and functional referral linkages; attention on public health services & population health interventions; sustained political will & monitoring and evaluation for the mid-term corrections, amongst other. Experience from India may have lessons and learnings for other low and middle-income countries to strengthen primary healthcare in journey towards universal health coverage.

Community action for health in India: evolution, lessons learnt and ways forward to achieve universal health coverage

The role of civil society and community-based organizations in advancing universal health coverage and meeting the targets of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development has received renewed recognition from major global initiatives. This article documents the evolution and lessons learnt through two decades of experience in India at national, state and district levels. Community and civil society engagement in health services in India began with semi-institutional mechanisms under programmes focused on, for example, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, polio and immunization. A formal system of community action for health (CAH) started with the launch of the National Rural Health Mission in 2005. By December 2018, CAH processes were being implemented in 22 states, 353 districts and more than 200 000 villages in India. Successive evaluations have indicated improved performance on various service delivery parameters. One example of CAH is community-based monitoring and planning, which has been continuously expanded and strengthened in Maharashtra since 2007. This involves regular, participatory auditing of public health services, which facilitates the involvement of people in assessing the public health system and demanding improvements. At district level, CAH initiatives are successfully reaching "last-mile" communities. The Self-Employed Women's Association, a cooperative-based organization of women working in the informal sector in Gujarat, has developed community information hubs that empower clients to access government social and health sector services. CAH initiatives in India are now being augmented by regular activities led and/or participated in by civil society organizations. This is contributing to the democratization of community and civil society engagement in health. Additional documentation on CAH and the further formalization of civil society engagement are needed. These developments provide a valuable opportunity both to improve governance and accountability in the health sector and to accelerate progress towards universal health coverage. Lessons learnt may be applicable to other countries in South-East Asia, as well as to most low- and middle-income countries.

Cost-Effectiveness of Therapeutic Use of Safety-Engineered Syringes in Healthcare Facilities in India

BACKGROUND

Globally, 16 billion injections are administered each year of which 95% are for curative care. India contributes 25-30% of the global injection load. Over 63% of these injections are reportedly unsafe or deemed unnecessary.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained with the introduction of safety-engineered syringes (SES) as compared to disposable syringes for therapeutic care in India.

METHODS

A decision tree was used to compute the volume of needle-stick injuries (NSIs) and reuse episodes among healthcare professionals and the patient population. Subsequently, three separate Markov models were used to compute lifetime costs and QALYs for individuals infected with hepatitis B virus (HBV), hepatitis C virus (HCV) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Three SES were evaluated-reuse prevention syringe (RUP), sharp injury prevention (SIP) syringe, and syringes with features of both RUP and SIP. A lifetime study horizon starting from a base year of 2017 was considered appropriate to cover all costs and consequences comprehensively. A systematic review was undertaken to assess the SES effects in terms of reduction in NSIs and reuse episodes. These were then modelled in terms of reduction in transmission of blood-borne infections, life-years and QALYs gained. Future costs and consequences were discounted at the rate of 3%. Incremental cost per QALY gained was computed to assess the cost-effectiveness. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis was undertaken to account for parameter uncertainties.

RESULTS

The introduction of RUP, SIP and RUP + SIP syringes in India is estimated to incur an incremental cost of Indian National Rupee (INR) 61,028 (US$939), INR 7,768,215 (US$119,511) and INR 196,135 (US$3017) per QALY gained, respectively. A total of 96,296 HBV, 44,082 HCV and 5632 HIV deaths are estimated to be averted due to RUP in 20 years. RUP has an 84% probability to be cost-effective at a threshold of per capita gross domestic product (GDP). The RUP syringe can become cost saving at a unit price of INR 1.9. Similarly, SIP and RUP + SIP syringes can be cost-effective at a unit price of less than INR 1.2 and INR 5.9, respectively.

CONCLUSION

RUP syringes are estimated to be cost-effective in the Indian context. SIP and RUP + SIP syringes are not cost-effective at the current unit prices. Efforts should be made to bring down the price of SES to improve its cost-effectiveness.

What makes primary healthcare facilities functional, and increases the utilization? Learnings from 12 case studies

Background

The last few decades have witnessed a number of innovative approaches and initiatives to deliver primary healthcare (PHC) services in different parts of India. The lessons from these initiatives can be useful as India aims to strengthen the PHC system through Health and Wellness Centers (HWCs) component under Ayushman Bharat Program, launched in early 2018.

Materials and Methods

Comparative case study method was adopted to systematically document a few identified initiatives/models delivering the PHC services in India. Desk review was followed by field visits and key informant interviews. Twelve PHC case studies from 14 Indian states, with a focus on equity and "potentially replicable designs" were included from the government as well as the "not-for-profit" sector. The cases studies comprised of initiatives/models having the provision of PHC services, whether exclusively or as part of broader hospital services. The data was collected from May 2016 to March 2017.

Results

The "political will" for government facilities and "leadership and motivation" for "not-for-profit" facilities adjudged to contribute towards improved functioning. A comprehensive package of services, functional 'continuity of care' across levels, efforts to meet one or more type of quality standards and limited "intention to availability" gap (or assured provision of promised services) were considered to be associated with increased utilization. A total of 10 lessons and learnings derived from the analysis of these case studies have been summarised.

Conclusions

The case studies in this article highlights the components which makes PHC facilities functional and have potential for increased utilization. The article underscores the need for institutional mechanisms for health system research and innovation hubs at both national and state level in India, for the rapid scale of comprehensive primary healthcare. Lessons can be applied to other low- and middle-income countries intending to deliver comprehensive PHC services to advance towards universal health coverage.

Pattern of Use and Determinants of Return Visits at Community or Mohalla Clinics of Delhi, India

Background

Mohalla or Community Clinics of Delhi, India, have made primary care accessible, equitable, and affordable for women, elderly, and children in the underserved areas.

Objectives

To understand the population subgroups which use these clinics and to analyze why people use these facilities and the determinants of the return visits for health seeking.

Materials and Methods

This was a community-based cross-sectional study, with primary data collection from 25 localities across Delhi. A pretested semi-structured interview schedule was used for data collection. Two regression models were used for data analysis: a linear probability model to understand the factors contributing to the use of these clinics and a probit regression model to understand the determinants of return visits to these facilities.

Results

Four hundred ninety-three ever-married women residing in study settings were included. The age of beneficiaries, marital status, distance from the clinics, and awareness about the services were found to be positively associated with the use of Mohalla Clinics. The proximity to households, waiting time at clinics, interaction time with the doctor, perceived performance of doctor, and effectiveness of treatment influenced the decision on a return visit for care seeking.

Conclusions

Improved information on service provision, proximity to the facility, assured provision of doctors and laboratory services, and increased patient-doctor interaction time have the potential to increase the use and return visits to these Community or Mohalla Clinics. The lessons from this study can be used to design government primary health-care facilities in urban settings, for increased use by the target populations.

Adult vaccination in India: status and the way forward

In the last two decades, the childhood vaccination coverage in most low and middle-income countries including India has increased. Additional vaccines are being offered through national immunization programs as well as through private sector and the benefits of vaccination are reaching to more children than ever. This has resulted in major decrease in vaccine preventable diseases and contributed to decline in the morbidity and mortality rates. This development is expected to result in epidemiological transition (which is already happening) and mandates for policies and strategies to extend the benefit of available vaccines and vaccination beyond traditionally target age groups to include the adults, elderly and the at-risk populations. This article reviews the present status of adult vaccination in India and proposes a few approaches to move towards life course vaccination.

Basthi Dawakhana of Hyderabad: The first Urban Local Body led community clinics in India

Basthi Dawakhana initiative was launched by the Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation (GHMC) in Telangana state of India, in April 2018. This article documents, reviews, and analyzes the key design aspects of Basthi Dawakhana, delve into why such clinics are important for strengthening primary health care in Indian cities and urban settings, and proposes a few strategies for implementation effectiveness. In the main text of the article, evolution of urban health services, national urban health mission in India, and Mohalla clinics of Delhi has been provided. The implementation challenges and potetnial solutions for scaling up Basthi Dawakhana have been discussed. The author argues that Basthi Dawakhana initiative is aligned with the 73^rd and 74^th amendments in the Constitution of India, which transferred the responsibilities for primary care and public health to the Urban Local Bodies (ULBs). The article concludes that Basthi Dawakhana are arguably the first ULB-led community clinics initiative and an opportunities for ULBs in India to lead efforts to strengthen primary healthcare. These Dawakahna along with Mohalla Clinics, can serve platform to reform urban primary healthcare services and advance universal health coverage (UHC) in the country.

'Ayushman Bharat' Program and Universal Health Coverage in India

India's National Health Policy 2017 (NHP-2017) has its goal fully aligned with the concept of Universal health coverage. The Ayushman Bharat Program announced in the Union budget 2018-19 of the Government of India, aims to carry NHP-2017 proposals forward. The Ayushman Bharat Program has two initiatives/components - Health and Wellness Centers, and National Health Protection Scheme - aiming for increased accessibility, availability and affordability of primary-, secondary- and tertiary-care health services in India. Afterwards, the second component has been renamed as Pradhan Mantri Rashtriya Swasthya Suraksha Mission. The new program has received an unprecedented public, political and media attention; and is being attributed to have placed health higher on political agenda. This review article analyzes and provides critical reflections, suggestions and way forward for rapid and effective implementation of Ayushman Bharat Program. To be effective and impactful in achieving the desired health outcomes, there is a need for getting both design and implementation of Ayushman Bharat Program right, from the very beginning. If implemented fully and supplemented with additional interventions, the program can prove a potential platform to reform Indian healthcare system and to accelerate India's journey towards universal health coverage.