Building a framework to decolonize global emergency medicine

Background

Global emergency medicine (GEM) is situated at the intersection of global health and emergency medicine (EM), which is built upon a history of colonial systems and institutions that continue to reinforce inequities between high-income countries (HICs) and low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) today. These power imbalances yield disparities in GEM practice, research, and education.

Approach

The Global Emergency Medicine Academy (GEMA) of the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine formed the Decolonizing GEM Working Group in 2020, which now includes over 100 worldwide members. The mission is to address colonial legacies in GEM and catalyze sustainable changes and recommendations toward decolonization at individual and institutional levels. To develop recommendations to decolonize GEM, the group conducted a nonsystematic review of existing literature on decolonizing global health, followed by in-depth discussions between academics from LMICs and HICs to explore implications and challenges specific to GEM. We then synthesized actionable solutions to provide recommendations on decolonizing GEM.

Results

Despite the rapidly expanding body of literature on decolonizing global health, there is little guidance specific to the relatively new field of GEM. By applying decolonizing principles to GEM, we suggest key priorities for improving equity in academic GEM: (1) reframing partnerships to place LMIC academics in positions of expertise and power, (2) redirecting research funding toward LMIC-driven projects and investigators, (3) creating more equitable practices in establishing authorship, and (4) upholding principles of decolonization in the education of EM trainees from LMICs and HICs.

Conclusions

Understanding the colonial roots of GEM will allow us to look more critically at current health disparities and identify inequitable institutionalized practices within our profession that continue to uphold these misguided concepts. A decolonized future of GEM depends on our recognition and rectification of colonial-era practices that shape structural determinants of health care delivery and scientific advancement.

Emergency Department Volume and Delayed Diagnosis of Serious Pediatric Conditions

Importance

Diagnostic delays are common in the emergency department (ED) and may predispose to worse outcomes.

Objective

To evaluate the association of annual pediatric volume in the ED with delayed diagnosis.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This retrospective cohort study included all children younger than 18 years treated at 954 EDs in 8 states with a first-time diagnosis of any of 23 acute, serious conditions: bacterial meningitis, compartment syndrome, complicated pneumonia, craniospinal abscess, deep neck infection, ectopic pregnancy, encephalitis, intussusception, Kawasaki disease, mastoiditis, myocarditis, necrotizing fasciitis, nontraumatic intracranial hemorrhage, orbital cellulitis, osteomyelitis, ovarian torsion, pulmonary embolism, pyloric stenosis, septic arthritis, sinus venous thrombosis, slipped capital femoral epiphysis, stroke, or testicular torsion. Patients were identified using the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project State ED and Inpatient Databases. Data were collected from January 2015 to December 2019, and data were analyzed from July to December 2023.

Exposure

Annual volume of children at the first ED visited.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Possible delayed diagnosis, defined as a patient with an ED discharge within 7 days prior to diagnosis. A secondary outcome was condition-specific complications. Rates of possible delayed diagnosis and complications were determined. The association of volume with delayed diagnosis across conditions was evaluated using conditional logistic regression matching on condition, age, and medical complexity. Condition-specific volume-delay associations were tested using hierarchical logistic models with log volume as the exposure, adjusting for age, sex, payer, medical complexity, and hospital urbanicity. The association of delayed diagnosis with complications by condition was then examined using logistic regressions.

Results

Of 58 998 included children, 37 211 (63.1%) were male, and the mean (SD) age was 7.1 (5.8) years. A total of 6709 (11.4%) had a complex chronic condition. Delayed diagnosis occurred in 9296 (15.8%; 95% CI, 15.5-16.1). Each 2-fold increase in annual pediatric volume was associated with a 26.7% (95% CI, 22.5-30.7) decrease in possible delayed diagnosis. For 21 of 23 conditions (all except ectopic pregnancy and sinus venous thrombosis), there were decreased rates of possible delayed diagnosis with increasing ED volume. Condition-specific complications were 11.2% (95% CI, 3.1-20.0) more likely among patients with a possible delayed diagnosis compared with those without.

Conclusions and Relevance

EDs with fewer pediatric encounters had more possible delayed diagnoses across 23 serious conditions. Tools to support timely diagnosis in low-volume EDs are needed.

Identifying neonates at risk for post-discharge mortality in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, and Monrovia, Liberia: Derivation and internal validation of a novel risk assessment tool

INTRODUCTION

The immediate period after hospital discharge carries a large burden of childhood mortality in sub-Saharan Africa. Our objective was to derive and internally validate a risk assessment tool to identify neonates discharged from the neonatal ward at risk for 60-day post-discharge mortality.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective observational cohort study of neonates discharged from Muhimbili National Hospital in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, and John F Kennedy Medical Centre in Monrovia, Liberia. Research staff called caregivers to ascertain vital status up to 60 days after discharge. We conducted multivariable logistic regression analyses with best subset selection to identify socioeconomic, demographic, clinical, and anthropometric factors associated with post-discharge mortality. We used adjusted log coefficients to assign points to each variable and internally validated our tool with bootstrap validation with 500 repetitions.

RESULTS

There were 2344 neonates discharged and 2310 (98.5%) had post-discharge outcomes available. The median (IQR) age at discharge was 8 (4, 15) days; 1238 (53.6%) were male. In total, 71 (3.1%) died during follow-up (26.8% within 7 days of discharge). Leaving against medical advice (adjusted OR [aOR] 5.62, 95% CI 2.40 to 12.10) and diagnosis of meconium aspiration (aOR 6.98, 95% CI 1.69 to 21.70) conferred the greatest risk for post-discharge mortality. The risk assessment tool included nine variables (total possible score=63) and had an optimism corrected area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.77 (95% CI 0.75 to 0.80). A score of ≥6 was most optimal (sensitivity 68.3% [95% CI 64.8% to 71.5%], specificity 72.1% [95% CI 71.5% to 72.7%]).

CONCLUSIONS

A small number of factors predicted all-cause, 60-day mortality after discharge from neonatal wards in Tanzania and Liberia. After external validation, this risk assessment tool may facilitate clinical decision making for eligibility for discharge and the direction of resources to follow-up high risk neonates.

Experience on postmortem minimally invasive tissue sampling to ascertain the cause of death determination in South African children: A case for implementing as standard of care

Determining the death burden for prioritising public health interventions necessitates detailed data on the causal pathways to death. Postmortem minimally invasive tissue sampling (MITS), incorporating histology, molecular and microbial culture diagnostics, enhances cause-of-death attribution, particularly for infectious deaths. MITS proves a valid alternative to full diagnostic autopsies, especially in low- and middle-income countries. In Soweto, South Africa (SA), the Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS) programme has delineated over 1 000 child and stillbirth deaths since 2017. This SA CHAMPS site supports advocating for the use of postmortem MITS as routine practice, for more granular insights into under-5 mortality causes. This knowledge is crucial for SA's pursuit of Sustainable Development Goal 3.2, targeting reduced neonatal and under-5 mortality rates. This commentary explores the public health advantages and ethicolegal considerations surrounding implementing MITS as standard of care for stillbirths, neonatal and paediatric deaths in SA. Furthermore, based on the data from CHAMPS, we present three pragmatic algorithmic approaches to the wide array of testing options for cost-effectiveness and scalability of postmortem MITS in South African state facilities.

Identifying delays in healthcare seeking and provision: The Three Delays-in-Healthcare and mortality among infants and children aged 1-59 months

Delays in illness recognition, healthcare seeking, and in the provision of appropriate clinical care are common in resource-limited settings. Our objective was to determine the frequency of delays in the "Three Delays-in-Healthcare", and factors associated with delays, among deceased infants and children in seven countries with high childhood mortality. We conducted a retrospective, descriptive study using data from verbal autopsies and medical records for infants and children aged 1-59 months who died between December 2016 and February 2022 in six sites in sub-Saharan Africa and one in South Asia (Bangladesh) and were enrolled in Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS). Delays in 1) illness recognition in the home/decision to seek care, 2) transportation to healthcare facilities, and 3) the receipt of clinical care in healthcare facilities were categorized according to the "Three Delays-in-Healthcare". Comparisons in factors associated with delays were made using Chi-square testing. Information was available for 1,326 deaths among infants and under 5 children. The majority had at least one identified delay (n = 854, 64%). Waiting >72 hours after illness recognition to seek health care (n = 422, 32%) was the most common delay. Challenges in obtaining transportation occurred infrequently when seeking care (n = 51, 4%). In healthcare facilities, prescribed medications were sometimes unavailable (n = 102, 8%). Deceased children aged 12-59 months experienced more delay than infants aged 1-11 months (68% vs. 61%, P = 0.018). Delays in seeking clinical care were common among deceased infants and children. Additional study to assess the frequency of delays in seeking clinical care and its provision among children who survive is warranted.

Risk factors for moderate acute malnutrition among children with acute diarrhoea in India and Tanzania: a secondary analysis of data from a randomized trial

BACKGROUND

Moderate acute malnutrition (MAM) affects over 30 million children aged < 5 years worldwide. MAM may confer a greater risk of developing severe malnutrition and even mortality in children. Assessing risk factors for MAM may allow for earlier recognition of children at risk of deleterious health outcomes.

OBJECTIVE

To determine risk factors associated with the prevalence and development of MAM among children aged 6 to 59 months with acute diarrhoea who received treatment with oral rehydration solution and zinc supplementation.

METHODS

We conducted a secondary analysis of data from a randomized, dose-finding trial of zinc among children with acute diarrhoea in India and Tanzania. We used regression models to assess risk factors for prevalent MAM at the start of diarrhoea treatment and to identify risk factors associated with the development of MAM at 60 days. MAM was defined as weight for length (or height) Z score ≤-2 and > -3 or mid-upper arm circumference < 12.5 and ≥ 11.5 cm.

RESULTS

A total of 4,500 children were enrolled; 593 (13.2%) had MAM at the baseline. MAM at baseline was significantly less common among children in Tanzania than in India (adjusted risk ratio [aRR] 0.37, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.30, 0.44, P < 0.001), in children aged 24- < 60 months versus 6- < 12 months (aRR 0.46, 95% CI: 0.38, 0.56, P < 0.001), and in families with household wealth index higher than the median (aRR 0.79, 95% CI: 0.68, 0.92, P = 0.002). Sixty days after outpatient treatment and follow-up, 87 (2.5%) children developed MAM. When compared to children aged 6- < 12 months, children aged 24- < 60 months had a 52% lower risk of developing MAM. Every one unit increase in weight for length (or height) Z score at enrolment was associated with a 93% lower risk of developing MAM during follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

Among children with diarrhoea, younger children and those from households with lower wealth were at greater risk of MAM. These children may benefit from targeted interventions focusing on feeding (targeted nutrition support for at-risk households) and follow up in order to reduce the occurrence of MAM and its consequences.

Global Emergency Medicine: A Scoping Review of the Literature from 2022

OBJECTIVE

The objective was to identify the highest quality global emergency medicine (GEM) research published in 2022. The top articles are compiled in a comprehensive list of all the year's GEM articles and narrative summaries are performed on those included.

METHODS

A systematic PubMed search was conducted to identify all GEM articles published in 2022 and included a manual supplemental screen of 11 organizational websites for gray literature (GRAY). A team of trained reviewers and editors screened all identified titles and abstracts, based on three case definition categories: disaster and humanitarian response (DHR), emergency care in resource-limited settings (ECRLS), and emergency medicine development (EMD). Articles meeting these definitions were independently scored by two reviewers using rubrics for original research (OR), review (RE) articles, and GRAY. Articles that scored in the top 5% from each category as well as the overall top 5% of articles were included for narrative summary.

RESULTS

The 2022 search identified 58,510 articles in the main review, of which 524 articles screened in for scoring, respectively, 30% and 18% increases from last year. After duplicates were removed, 36 articles were included for narrative summary. The GRAY search identified 7755 articles, of which 33 were scored and one was included for narrative summary. ECRLS remained the largest category (27; 73%), followed by DHR (7; 19%) and EMD (3; 8%). OR articles remained more common than RE articles (64% vs. 36%).

CONCLUSIONS

The waning of the COVID-19 pandemic has not affected the continued growth in GEM literature. Articles related to prehospital care, mental health and resilience among patients and health care workers, streamlining pediatric infectious disease care, and disaster preparedness were featured in this year's review. The continued lack of EMD studies despite the global growth of GEM highlights a need for more scholarly dissemination of best practices.

Community-Acquired Pneumonia in Children

ABSTRACT

Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is the most common cause of childhood mortality globally. In the United States, CAP is a leading cause of pediatric hospitalization and antibiotic use and is associated with substantial morbidity. There has been a dramatic shift in microbiological etiologies for CAP in children over time as pneumococcal pneumonia has become less common and viral etiologies have become predominant. There is no commonly agreed on approach to the diagnosis of CAP in children. When indicated, antimicrobial treatment should consist of narrow-spectrum antibiotics. In this article, we will describe the current understanding of the microbiological etiologies, clinical presentation, diagnostic approach, risk factors, treatment, and future directions in the diagnosis and management of pediatric CAP.

Research Priorities for Pediatric Emergency Care to Address Disparities by Race, Ethnicity, and Language

Importance

Health care disparities are well-documented among children based on race, ethnicity, and language for care. An agenda that outlines research priorities for disparities in pediatric emergency care (PEC) is lacking.

Objective

To investigate research priorities for disparities in PEC among medical personnel, researchers, and health care-affiliated community organizations.

Design, Setting, and Participants

In this survey study, a modified Delphi approach was used to investigate research priorities for disparities in PEC. An initial list of research priorities was developed by a group of experienced PEC investigators in 2021. Partners iteratively assessed the list through 2 rounds of electronic surveys using Likert-type responses in late 2021 and early 2022. Priorities were defined as achieving consensus if they received a score of highest priority or priority by at least 60% of respondents. Asynchronous engagement of participants via online web-conferencing platforms and email correspondence with electronic survey administration was used. Partners were individuals and groups involved in PEC. Participants represented interest groups, research and medical personnel organizations, health care partners, and laypersons with roles in community and family hospital advisory councils. Participants were largely from the US, with input from international PEC research networks.

Outcome

Consensus agenda of research priorities to identify and address health care disparities in PEC.

Results

PEC investigators generated an initial list of 27 potential priorities. Surveys were completed by 38 of 47 partners (80.6%) and 30 of 38 partners (81.1%) in rounds 1 and 2, respectively. Among 30 respondents who completed both rounds, there were 7 family or community partners and 23 medical or research partners, including 4 international PEC research networks. A total of 12 research priorities achieved the predetermined consensus threshold: (1) systematic efforts to reduce disparities; (2) race, ethnicity, and language data collection and reporting; (3) recognizing and mitigating clinician implicit bias; (4) mental health disparities; (5) social determinants of health; (6) language and literacy; (7) acute pain-management disparities; (8) quality of care equity metrics; (9) shared decision-making; (10) patient experience; (11) triage and acuity score assignment; and (12) inclusive research participation.

Conclusions and Relevance

These results suggest a research priority agenda that may be used as a guide for investigators, research networks, organizations, and funding agencies to engage in and support high-priority disparities research topics in PEC.

Racial & ethnic disparities in geographic access to critical care in the United States: A geographic information systems analysis

OBJECTIVE

It is important to identify gaps in access and reduce health outcome disparities, understanding access to intensive care unit (ICU) beds, especially by race and ethnicity, is crucial. Our objective was to evaluate the race and ethnicity-specific 60-minute drive time accessibility of ICU beds in the United States (US).

DESIGN

We conducted a cross-sectional study using road network analysis to determine the number of ICU beds within a 60-minute drive time, and calculated adult intensive care bed ratios per 100,000 adults. We evaluated the US population at the Census block group level and stratified our analysis by race and ethnicity and by urbanicity. We classified block groups into four access levels: no access (0 adult intensive care beds/100,000 adults), below average access (>0-19.5), average access (19.6-32.0), and above average access (>32.0). We calculated the proportion of adults in each racial and ethnic group within the four access levels.

SETTING

All 50 US states and the District of Columbia.

PARTICIPANTS

Adults ≥15 years old.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Adult intensive care beds/100,000 adults and percentage of adults national and state) within four access levels by race and ethnicity.

RESULTS

High variability existed in access to ICU beds by state, and substantial disparities by race and ethnicity. 1.8% (n = 5,038,797) of Americans had no access to an ICU bed, and 26.8% (n = 73,095,752) had below average access, within a 60-minute drive time. Racial and ethnic analysis showed high rates of disparities (no access/below average access): American Indians/Alaskan Native 12.6%/28.5%, Asian 0.7%/23.1%, Black or African American 0.6%/16.5%, Hispanic or Latino 1.4%/23.0%, Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islander 5.2%/35.0%, and White 2.1%/29.0%. A higher percentage of rural block groups had no (5.2%) or below average access (41.2%), compared to urban block groups (0.2% no access, 26.8% below average access).

CONCLUSION

ICU bed availability varied substantially by geography, race and ethnicity, and by urbanicity, creating significant disparities in critical care access. The variability in ICU bed access may indicate inequalities in healthcare access overall by limiting resources for the management of critically ill patients.

A cross-sectional analysis of publication of pediatric global health abstracts from seven major international conferences

Research presented at conferences may increase context-specific evidence in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where global childhood disease burden is greatest and where massive relative deficits in research persist. Publication of studies presented at conferences is necessary for complete results dissemination. Our objective was to determine the frequency of publication of pediatric global health conference abstracts and to identify factors associated with publication. We conducted a cross-sectional study of abstracts that reported pediatric research conducted in at least one LMIC presented at seven major scientific conferences in 2017, 2018, and 2019. We used PubMed, EMBASE and Google Scholar to search for publications of the results presented as abstracts. We created a Kaplan-Meier curve to determine the cumulative incidence of publications and used predetermined abstract-level factors to create a multivariable Cox proportional hazard model to identify factors associated with time to publication. There were 8,105 abstracts reviewed and 1,433 (17.7%) reported pediatric research conducted in one or more LMICs. The probability of publication of pediatric global health abstracts was 33.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] 31.2-36.1%) at 24 months and 46.6% (95% CI 44.0-49.3%) at 48 months. Abstracts that reported research conducted in East Asia and Pacific (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 3.06, 95% CI 1.74-5.24), South Asia (aHR 2.25, 95% CI 1.30-3.91%), and upper-middle-income countries (1.50, 95% CI 1.12-2.02) were published sooner than those that reported research in LMICs in Europe and Central Asia and lower-middle-income countries, respectively. Fewer than half of pediatric global health abstracts were published in peer-reviewed journals up to four years after presentation at international conferences. Efforts are urgently needed to promote the widespread and long-lasting dissemination of pediatric research conducted in LMICs presented as abstracts to provide a more robust evidence base for both clinical care and policy related to child health.

Provider adherence to clinical care recommendations for infants and children who died in seven low- and middle-income countries in the Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS) network

Background

Most childhood deaths globally are considered preventable through high-quality clinical care, which includes adherence to clinical care recommendations. Our objective was to describe adherence to World Health Organization recommendations for the management of leading causes of death among children.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective, descriptive study examining clinical data for children aged 1-59 months who were hospitalized and died in a Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS) catchment, December 2016-June 2021. Catchment areas included: Baliakandi and Faridpur, Bangladesh; Kersa, Haramaya, and Harar, Ethiopia; Kisumu and Siaya, Kenya; Bamako, Mali; Manhiça and Quelimane, Mozambique; Makeni, Sierra Leone; Soweto, South Africa. We reviewed medical records of those who died from lower respiratory tract infections, sepsis, malnutrition, malaria, and diarrheal diseases to determine the proportion who received recommended treatments and compared adherence by hospitalization duration.

Findings

CHAMPS enrolled 460 hospitalized children who died from the leading causes (median age 12 months, 53.0% male). Median hospital admission was 31 h. There were 51.0% (n = 127/249) of children who died from lower respiratory tract infections received supplemental oxygen. Administration of intravenous fluids for sepsis (15.9%, n = 36/226) and supplemental feeds for malnutrition (14.0%, n = 18/129) were uncommon. There were 51.4% (n = 55/107) of those who died from malaria received antimalarials. Of the 80 children who died from diarrheal diseases, 76.2% received intravenous fluids. Those admitted for ≥24 h more commonly received antibiotics for lower respiratory tract infections and sepsis, supplemental feeds for malnutrition, and intravenous fluids for sepsis than those admitted <24 h.

Interpretation

Provision of recommended clinical care for leading causes of death among young children was suboptimal. Further studies are needed to understand the reasons for deficits in clinical care recommendation adherence.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Sickle Cell Disease Treatment with Arginine Therapy (STArT): study protocol for a phase 3 randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Despite substantial illness burden and healthcare utilization conferred by pain from vaso-occlusive episodes (VOE) in children with sickle cell disease (SCD), disease-modifying therapies to effectively treat SCD-VOE are lacking. The aim of the Sickle Cell Disease Treatment with Arginine Therapy (STArT) Trial is to provide definitive evidence regarding the efficacy of intravenous arginine as a treatment for acute SCD-VOE among children, adolescents, and young adults.

METHODS

STArT is a double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized, phase 3, multicenter trial of intravenous arginine therapy in 360 children, adolescents, and young adults who present with SCD-VOE. The STArT Trial is being conducted at 10 sites in the USA through the Pediatric Emergency Care Applied Research Network (PECARN). Enrollment began in 2021 and will continue for 5 years. Within 12 h of receiving their first dose of intravenous opioids, enrolled participants are randomized 1:1 to receive either (1) a one-time loading dose of L-arginine (200 mg/kg with a maximum of 20 g) administered intravenously followed by a standard dose of 100 mg/kg (maximum 10 g) three times a day or (2) a one-time placebo loading dose of normal saline followed by normal saline three times per day at equivalent volumes and duration as the study drug. Participants, research staff, and investigators are blinded to the participant's randomization. All clinical care is provided in accordance with the institution-specific standard of care for SCD-VOE based on the 2014 National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute guidelines. The primary outcome is time to SCD-VOE pain crisis resolution, defined as the time (in hours) from study drug delivery to the last dose of parenteral opioid delivery. Secondary outcomes include total parental opioid use and patient-reported outcomes. In addition, the trial will characterize alterations in the arginine metabolome and mitochondrial function in children with SCD-VOE.

DISCUSSION

Building on the foundation of established relationships between emergency medicine providers and hematologists in a multicenter research network to ensure adequate participant accrual, the STArT Trial will provide definitive information about the efficacy of intravenous arginine for the treatment of SCD-VOE for children.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

The STArT Trial was registered in ClinicalTrials.gov on April 9, 2021, and enrollment began on June 21, 2021 (NCT04839354).

Reporting and Representation of Participant Race and Ethnicity in National Institutes of Health-Funded Pediatric Clinical Trials

Importance

Enrolling racially and ethnically diverse pediatric research participants is critical to ensuring equitable access to health advances and generalizability of research findings.

Objectives

To examine the reporting of race and ethnicity for National Institutes of Health (NIH)-funded pediatric clinical trials and to assess the representation of pediatric participants from different racial and ethnic groups compared with distributions in the US population.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cross-sectional study included NIH-funded pediatric (ages 0-17 years) trials with grant funding completed between January 1, 2017, and December 31, 2019, and trial results reported as of June 30, 2022.

Exposures

National Institutes of Health policies and guidance statements on the reporting of race and ethnicity of participants in NIH-funded clinical trials.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The main outcome was reporting of participant race and ethnicity for NIH-funded pediatric clinical trials in publications and ClinicalTrials.gov.

Results

There were 363 NIH-funded pediatric trials included in the analysis. Reporting of race and ethnicity data was similar in publications and ClinicalTrials.gov, with 90.3% (167 of 185) of publications and 93.9% (77 of 82) of ClinicalTrial.gov reports providing data on race and/or ethnicity. Among the 160 publications reporting race, there were 43 different race classifications, with only 3 publications (1.9%) using the NIH-required categories. By contrast, in ClinicalTrials.gov, 61 reports (79.2%) provided participant race and ethnicity using the NIH-specified categories (P < .001). There was racially and ethnically diverse enrollment of pediatric participants, with overrepresentation of racial and ethnic minority groups compared with the US population.

Conclusions and Relevance

This cross-sectional study of NIH-funded pediatric clinical trials found high rates of reporting of participant race and ethnicity, with diverse representation of trial participants. These findings suggest that the NIH is meeting its directive of ensuring diverse participant enrollment in the research it supports.

Has Authorship in the Decolonizing Global Health Movement Been Colonized?

Background

Decolonization in global health is a recent movement aimed at relinquishing remnants of supremacist mindsets, inequitable structures, and power differentials in global health.

Objective

To determine the author demographics of publications on decolonizing global health and global health partnerships between low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) and high-income countries (HICs).

Methods

We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of publications related to decolonizing global health and global health partnerships from the inception of the selected journal databases (i.e., Medline, CAB Global Health, EMBASE, CINAHL, and Web of Science) to November 14, 2022. Author country affiliations were assigned as listed in each publication. Author gender was assigned using author first name and the software genderize.io. Descriptive statistics were used for author country income bracket, gender, and distribution.

Findings

Among 197 publications on decolonizing global health and global health partnerships, there were 691 total authors (median 2 authors per publication, interquartile range 1, 4). Publications with author bylines comprised exclusively of authors affiliated with HICs were most common (70.0%, n = 138) followed by those with authors affiliated both with HICs and LMICs (22.3%, n = 44). Only 7.6% (n = 15) of publications had author bylines comprised exclusively of authors affiliated with LMICs. Over half (54.0%, n = 373) of the included authors had names that were female and female authors affiliated with HICs most commonly occupied first author positions (51.8%, n = 102).

Conclusions

Authors in publications on decolonizing global health and global health partnerships have largely been comprised of individuals affiliated with HICs. There was a marked paucity of publications with authors affiliated with LMICs, whose voices provide context and crucial insight into the needs of the decolonizing global health movement.

Predictive value of clinician impression for readmission and postdischarge mortality among neonates and young children in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania and Monrovia, Liberia

BACKGROUND

There are no validated clinical decision aids to identify neonates and young children at risk of hospital readmission or postdischarge mortality in sub-Saharan Africa, leaving the decision to discharge a child to a clinician's impression. Our objective was to determine the precision of clinician impression to identify neonates and young children at risk for readmission and postdischarge mortality.

METHODS

We conducted a survey study nested in a prospective observational cohort of neonates and children aged 1-59 months followed 60 days after hospital discharge from Muhimbili National Hospital in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania or John F. Kennedy Medical Center in Monrovia, Liberia. Clinicians who discharged each enrolled patient were surveyed to determine their perceived probability of the patient's risk of 60-day hospital readmission or postdischarge mortality. We calculated the area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC) to determine the precision of clinician impression for both outcomes.

RESULTS

Of 4247 discharged patients, 3896 (91.7%) had available clinician surveys and 3847 (98.7%) had 60-day outcomes available: 187 (4.8%) were readmitted and 120 (3.1%) died within 60 days of hospital discharge. Clinician impression had poor precision in identifying neonates and young children at risk of hospital readmission (AUPRC: 0.06, 95% CI: 0.04 to 0.08) and postdischarge mortality (AUPRC: 0.05, 95% CI: 0.03 to 0.08). Patients for whom clinicians attributed inability to pay for future medical treatment as the reason for risk for unplanned hospital readmission had 4.76 times the odds hospital readmission (95% CI: 1.31 to 17.25, p=0.02).

CONCLUSIONS

Given the poor precision of clinician impression alone to identify neonates and young children at risk of hospital readmission and postdischarge mortality, validated clinical decision aids are needed to aid in the identification of young children at risk for these outcomes.

In-hospital mortality risk stratification in children aged under 5 years with pneumonia with or without pulse oximetry: A secondary analysis of the Pneumonia REsearch Partnership to Assess WHO REcommendations (PREPARE) dataset

OBJECTIVES

We determined the pulse oximetry benefit in pediatric pneumonia mortality risk stratification and chest-indrawing pneumonia in-hospital mortality risk factors.

METHODS

We report the characteristics and in-hospital pneumonia-related mortality of children aged 2-59 months who were included in the Pneumonia Research Partnership to Assess WHO Recommendations dataset. We developed multivariable logistic regression models of chest-indrawing pneumonia to identify mortality risk factors.

RESULTS

Among 285,839 children, 164,244 (57.5%) from hospital-based studies were included. Pneumonia case fatality risk (CFR) without pulse oximetry measurement was higher than with measurement (5.8%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 5.6-5.9% vs 2.1%, 95% CI 1.9-2.4%). One in five children with chest-indrawing pneumonia was hypoxemic (19.7%, 95% CI 19.0-20.4%), and the hypoxemic CFR was 10.3% (95% CI 9.1-11.5%). Other mortality risk factors were younger age (either 2-5 months [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 9.94, 95% CI 6.67-14.84] or 6-11 months [aOR 2.67, 95% CI 1.71-4.16]), moderate malnutrition (aOR 2.41, 95% CI 1.87-3.09), and female sex (aOR 1.82, 95% CI 1.43-2.32).

CONCLUSION

Children with a pulse oximetry measurement had a lower CFR. Many children hospitalized with chest-indrawing pneumonia were hypoxemic and one in 10 died. Young age and moderate malnutrition were risk factors for in-hospital chest-indrawing pneumonia-related mortality. Pulse oximetry should be integrated in pneumonia hospital care for children under 5 years.

Intranasal fentanyl and discharge from the emergency department among children with sickle cell disease and vaso-occlusive pain: A multicenter pediatric emergency medicine perspective

Children with sickle cell disease (SCD) commonly experience vaso-occlusive pain episodes (VOE) due to sickling of erythrocytes, which often requires care in the emergency department. Our objective was to assess the use and impact of intranasal fentanyl for the treatment of children with SCD-VOE on discharge from the emergency department in a multicenter study. We conducted a cross-sectional study at 20 academic pediatric emergency departments in the United States and Canada. We used logistic regression to test bivariable and multivariable associations between the outcome of discharge from the emergency department and candidate variables theoretically associated with discharge. The study included 400 patients; 215 (54%) were female. The median age was 14.6 (interquartile range 9.8, 17.6) years. Nineteen percent (n = 75) received intranasal fentanyl in the emergency department. Children who received intranasal fentanyl had nearly nine-fold greater adjusted odds of discharge from the emergency department compared to those who did not (adjusted odds ratio 8.99, 95% CI 2.81-30.56, p < .001). The rapid onset of action and ease of delivery without intravenous access offered by intranasal fentanyl make it a feasible initial parenteral analgesic in the treatment of children with SCD presenting with VOE in the acute-care setting. Further study is needed to determine potential causality of the association between intranasal fentanyl and discharge from the emergency department observed in this multicenter study.

Dissemination of the Results of Pediatric Clinical Trials Funded by the US National Institutes of Health

This study examines practices related to trial registration and results submission in ClinicalTrials.gov and publication of pediatric clinical trials funded by the National Institutes of Health.

Reporting of Important Social Determinants of Health in Pediatric Clinical Trials

INTRODUCTION

The objective of this study was to determine the rates and trends in the reporting of preferred language, socioeconomic factors, sexual orientation, and gender identity in published pediatric clinical trials.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study of pediatric clinical trials conducted in the U.S. published from January 1, 2011 through December 31, 2020 in 5 general pediatric and 5 general medical journals with the highest impact factor in their respective fields was performed. Outcomes were reporting of preferred language, socioeconomic factors, sexual orientation, and gender identity. In late 2021, descriptive statistics and logistic regression to understand how reporting of preferred language and socioeconomic factors changed over time were performed.

RESULTS

Of 612 trials, 29.6% (n=181) reported preferred language. Among these, 64.6% (n=117 of 181) exclusively enrolled participants whose preferred language was English. From 2011 to 2020, there was a relative increase in the reporting of preferred language (8.6% per year, 95% CI=1.8, 16.0). Socioeconomic factors were reported in 47.9% (n=293) of trials. There was no significant change in the reporting of socioeconomic factors (8.2% per year, 95% CI= -1.9, 15.1). Only 5.1% (9 of 179) of published trial results among adolescent participants reported any measure of sexual orientation, and 1.1% (2 of 179) reported gender identity.

CONCLUSIONS

Preferred language, socioeconomic factors, sexual orientation, and gender identity were infrequently reported in pediatric clinical trial results despite these characteristics being increasingly recognized as social determinants of health. To achieve more inclusiveness and to reduce unmeasured disparities, these characteristics should be incorporated into routine trial registration, design, funding decisions, and reporting.

Systematic review and meta-analysis of the diagnostic value of four biomarkers in detecting neonatal sepsis in low- and middle-income countries

BACKGROUND

Biomarkers may enhance diagnostic capability for common paediatric infections, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) where standard diagnostic modalities are frequently unavailable, but disease burden is high. A comprehensive understanding of the diagnostic capability of commonly available biomarkers for neonatal sepsis in LMICs is lacking. Our objective was to systematically review evidence on biomarkers to understand their diagnostic performance for neonatal sepsis in LMICs.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies published in English, Spanish, French, German, Dutch, and Arabic reporting the diagnostic performance of C reactive protein (CRP), erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), white blood cell count (WBC) and procalcitonin (PCT) for neonatal sepsis. We calculated pooled test characteristics and the area under the curve (AUC) for each biomarker compared with the reference standards blood culture or clinical sepsis defined by each article.

RESULTS

Of 6570 studies related to biomarkers in children, 134 met inclusion criteria and included 23 179 neonates. There were 80 (59.7%) studies conducted in LMICs. CRP of ≥60 mg/L (AUC 0.87, 95% CI 0.76 to 0.91) among 1339 neonates and PCT of ≥0.5 ng/mL (AUC 0.87, 95% CI 0.70 to 0.92) among 617 neonates demonstrated the greatest discriminatory value for the diagnosis of neonatal sepsis using blood culture as the reference standard in LMICs.

CONCLUSIONS

PCT and CRP had good discriminatory value for neonatal sepsis in LMICs. ESR and WBC demonstrated poor discrimination for neonatal sepsis in LMICs. Future studies may incorporate biomarkers into clinical evaluation in LMICs to diagnose neonatal sepsis more accurately.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42020188680.

Trends and Disparities in Firearm Fatalities in the United States, 1990-2021

IMPORTANCE

Firearm fatality rates in the United States have reached a 28-year high. Describing the evolution of firearm fatality rates across intents, demographics, and geography over time may highlight high-risk groups and inform interventions for firearm injury prevention.

OBJECTIVE

To understand variations in rates of firearm fatalities stratified by intent, demographics, and geography in the US.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cross-sectional study analyzed firearm fatalities in the US from 1990 to 2021 using data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Heat maps, maximum and mean fatality rate graphs, and choropleth maps of county-level rates were created to examine trends in firearm fatality rates by intent over time by age, sex, race, ethnicity, and urbanicity of individuals who died from firearms. Data were analyzed from December 2018 through September 2022.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Rates of firearm fatalities by age, sex, race, ethnicity, urbanicity, and county of individuals killed stratified by specific intent (suicide or homicide) per 100 000 persons per year.

RESULTS

There were a total of 1 110 421 firearm fatalities from 1990 to 2021 (952 984 among males [85.8%] and 157 165 among females [14.2%]; 286 075 among Black non-Hispanic individuals [25.8%], 115 616 among Hispanic individuals [10.4%], and 672 132 among White non-Hispanic individuals [60.5%]). All-intents total firearm fatality rates per 100 000 persons declined to a low of 10.1 fatalities in 2004, then increased to 14.7 fatalities (45.5% increase) by 2021. From 2014 to 2021, male and female firearm homicide rates per 100 000 persons per year increased from 5.9 to 10.9 fatalities (84.7% increase) and 1.1 to 2.0 fatalities (87.0% increase), respectively. Firearm suicide rates were highest among White non-Hispanic men aged 80 to 84 years (up to 46.8 fatalities/100 000 persons in 2021). By 2021, maximum rates of firearm homicide were up to 22.5 times higher among Black non-Hispanic men (up to 141.8 fatalities/100 000 persons aged 20-24 years) and up to 3.6 times higher among Hispanic men (up to 22.8 fatalities/100 000 persons aged 20-24 years) compared with White non-Hispanic men (up to 6.3 fatalities/100 000 persons aged 30-34 years). Males had higher rates of suicide (14.1 fatalities vs 2.0 fatalities per 100 000 persons in 2021) and homicide (10.9 fatalities vs. 2.0 fatalities per 100 000 persons in 2021) compared with females. Metropolitan areas had higher homicide rates than nonmetropolitan areas (6.6 fatalities vs 4.8 fatalities per 100 000 persons in 2021). Firearm fatalities by county level increased over time, spreading from the West to the South. From 1999 to 2011 until 2014 to 2016, fatalities per 100 000 persons per year decreased from 10.6 to 10.5 fatalities in Western states and increased from 12.8 to 13.9 fatalities in Southern states.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This study found marked disparities in firearm fatality rates by demographic group, which increased over the past decade. These findings suggest that public health approaches to reduce firearm violence should consider underlying demographic and geographic trends and differences by intent.

Cash transfers and nutrition education to improve dietary diversity among children aged 6-23 months in Grand Gedeh County, Liberia: a cluster-randomized trial

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the efficacy of a cash transfer and nutrition education program on dietary diversity among children in Liberia. We hypothesized that a multi-pronged intervention would result in improved dietary diversity among children.

METHODS

We conducted a three-armed, cluster-randomized study in 42 communities (12 children per community) in Grand Gedeh County, Liberia, over a 12-month period. We randomly assigned communities to control (n = 14 communities), those that received both bimonthly cash transfers and a structured nutrition education program (n = 14 communities) and those that received bimonthly cash transfers alone (n = 14 communities). Community health assistants conducted bimonthly assessments in participants' homes. The primary outcome was the proportion of children aged 6-23 months who met minimum dietary diversity score (i.e., ≥4 food groups consumed per day). Secondary outcomes included meal frequency and healthcare utilization for illnesses (NCT04101487).

RESULTS

There were 599 children enrolled; 533 (88.9%) were retained through the trial period. The proportion of children who consumed ≥4 food groups per day did not differ among the three arms. However, children randomized to receive cash transfers had higher dietary diversity scores than the control group. Children in communities that received cash transfers alone and with nutrition education consumed significantly more meals per day and were less likely to have visits to clinics or hospitals for illnesses than children in control communities.

CONCLUSION

Bimonthly, unconditional cash transfers and nutrition education were associated with higher dietary diversity scores, greater meal frequency, and fewer healthcare visits for illnesses among children aged 6-23 months.

Prioritizing Health Care Strategies to Reduce Childhood Mortality

IMPORTANCE

Although child mortality trends have decreased worldwide, deaths among children younger than 5 years of age remain high and disproportionately circumscribed to sub-Saharan Africa and Southern Asia. Tailored and innovative approaches are needed to increase access, coverage, and quality of child health care services to reduce mortality, but an understanding of health system deficiencies that may have the greatest impact on mortality among children younger than 5 years is lacking.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate which health care and public health improvements could have prevented the most stillbirths and deaths in children younger than 5 years using data from the Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS) network.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cross-sectional study used longitudinal, population-based, and mortality surveillance data collected by CHAMPS to understand preventable causes of death. Overall, 3390 eligible deaths across all 7 CHAMPS sites (Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Kenya, Mali, Mozambique, Sierra Leone, and South Africa) between December 9, 2016, and December 31, 2021 (1190 stillbirths, 1340 neonatal deaths, 860 infant and child deaths), were included. Deaths were investigated using minimally invasive tissue sampling (MITS), a postmortem approach using biopsy needles for sampling key organs and fluids.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

For each death, an expert multidisciplinary panel reviewed case data to determine the plausible pathway and causes of death. If the death was deemed preventable, the panel identified which of 10 predetermined health system gaps could have prevented the death. The health system improvements that could have prevented the most deaths were evaluated for each age group: stillbirths, neonatal deaths (aged <28 days), and infant and child deaths (aged 1 month to <5 years).

RESULTS

Of 3390 deaths, 1505 (44.4%) were female and 1880 (55.5%) were male; sex was not recorded for 5 deaths. Of all deaths, 3045 (89.8%) occurred in a healthcare facility and 344 (11.9%) in the community. Overall, 2607 (76.9%) were deemed potentially preventable: 883 of 1190 stillbirths (74.2%), 1010 of 1340 neonatal deaths (75.4%), and 714 of 860 infant and child deaths (83.0%). Recommended measures to prevent deaths were improvements in antenatal and obstetric care (recommended for 588 of 1190 stillbirths [49.4%], 496 of 1340 neonatal deaths [37.0%]), clinical management and quality of care (stillbirths, 280 [23.5%]; neonates, 498 [37.2%]; infants and children, 393 of 860 [45.7%]), health-seeking behavior (infants and children, 237 [27.6%]), and health education (infants and children, 262 [30.5%]).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this cross-sectional study, interventions prioritizing antenatal, intrapartum, and postnatal care could have prevented the most deaths among children younger than 5 years because 75% of deaths among children younger than 5 were stillbirths and neonatal deaths. Measures to reduce mortality in this population should prioritize improving existing systems, such as better access to antenatal care, implementation of standardized clinical protocols, and public education campaigns.

Global emergency medicine: A scoping review of the literature from 2021

OBJECTIVE

The objective was to identify the most important and impactful peer-reviewed global emergency medicine (GEM) articles published in 2021. The top articles are summarized in brief narratives and accompanied by a comprehensive list of all identified articles that address the topic during the year to serve as a reference for clinicians, researchers, and policy makers.

METHODS

A systematic PubMed search was carried out to identify all GEM articles published in 2021. Title and abstract screening was performed by trained reviewers and editors to identify articles in one of three categories based on predefined criteria: disaster and humanitarian response (DHR), emergency care in resource-limited settings (ECRLS), and emergency medicine development (EMD). Included articles were each scored by two reviewers using established rubrics for original (OR) and review (RE) articles. The top 5% of articles overall and the top 5% of articles from each category (DHR, ECRLS, EMD, OR, and RE) were included for narrative summary.

RESULTS

The 2021 search identified 44,839 articles, of which 444 articles screened in for scoring, 25% and 22% increases from 2020, respectively. After removal of duplicates, 23 articles were included for narrative summary. ECRLS constituted the largest category (n = 16, 70%), followed by EMD (n = 4, 17%) and DHR (n = 3, 13%). The majority of top articles were OR (n = 14, 61%) compared to RE (n = 9, 39%).

CONCLUSIONS

The GEM peer-reviewed literature continued to grow at a fast rate in 2021, reflecting the continued expansion and maturation of this subspecialty of emergency medicine. Few high-quality articles focused on DHR and EMD, suggesting a need for further efforts in those fields. Future efforts should focus on improving the diversity of GEM research and equitable representation.

Mortality During Readmission Among Children in United States Children's Hospitals

OBJECTIVE

To identify demographic, clinical, and hospital factors associated with mortality on readmission within 180 days following an inpatient hospitalization.

STUDY DESIGN

We conducted a retrospective cohort study including 33 US children's hospitals in the Pediatric Health Information System from January 2010 to June 2020. Our primary outcome was death during readmission within 180 days of an index hospitalization among children aged 0-18 years. Illness severity during the index hospitalization was defined according to the All Patient-Refined Diagnosis-Related Group-categorized illness severity (ie, minor, moderate, or major/extreme). We performed multivariable logistic regression analysis to identify factors during the index hospitalization associated with mortality during readmission.

RESULTS

Among 2 677 111 children discharged, 337 385 (12.6%) were readmitted within 180 days of the index hospitalization and 2913 (0.8%) died during readmission. More than one-quarter (26.2%) of deaths among children who were readmitted and died occurred within 10 days after discharge from the index hospitalization. Factors independently associated with mortality during readmission included multiple complex chronic conditions, index admissions lasting >7 days, moderate or severe/extreme illness during the index hospitalization, and public insurance. Children whose race was reported as Black had greater odds of mortality during readmission compared with children of other races.

CONCLUSIONS

Among hospitalized children, several demographic and clinical factors present during index hospitalizations were associated with mortality during readmission. Greater odds of mortality during readmission among children whose race was reported as Black likely reflects disparities in social determinants of health and clinical care. Interventions to reduce mortality during readmission may target high-risk populations in the period immediately following discharge.

Authorship representation in global emergency medicine: a bibliometric analysis from 2016 to 2020

Introduction

High-income country (HIC) authors are disproportionately represented in authorship bylines compared with those affiliated with low and middle-income countries (LMICs) in global health research. An assessment of authorship representation in the global emergency medicine (GEM) literature is lacking but may inform equitable academic collaborations in this relatively new field.

Methods

We conducted a bibliometric analysis of original research articles reporting studies conducted in LMICs from the annual GEM Literature Review from 2016 to 2020. Data extracted included study topic, journal, study country(s) and region, country income classification, author order, country(s) of authors’ affiliations and funding sources. We compared the proportion of authors affiliated with each income bracket using Χ² analysis. We conducted logistic regression to identify factors associated with first or last authorship affiliated with the study country.

Results

There were 14 113 authors in 1751 articles. Nearly half (45.5%) of the articles reported work conducted in lower middle-income countries (MICs), 23.6% in upper MICs, 22.5% in low-income countries (LICs). Authors affiliated with HICs were most represented (40.7%); 26.4% were affiliated with lower MICs, 17.4% with upper MICs, 10.3% with LICs and 5.1% with mixed affiliations. Among single-country studies, those without any local authors (8.7%) were most common among those conducted in LICs (14.4%). Only 31.0% of first authors and 21.3% of last authors were affiliated with LIC study countries. Studies in upper MICs (adjusted OR (aOR) 3.6, 95% CI 2.46 to 5.26) and those funded by the study country (aOR 2.94, 95% CI 2.05 to 4.20) had greater odds of having a local first author.

Conclusions

There were significant disparities in authorship representation. Authors affiliated with HICs more commonly occupied the most prominent authorship positions. Recognising and addressing power imbalances in international, collaborative emergency medicine (EM) research is warranted. Innovative methods are needed to increase funding opportunities and other support for EM researchers in LMICs, particularly in LICs.

Association of International Editorial Staff With Published Articles From Low- and Middle-Income Countries

IMPORTANCE

The association between geographic diversity of medical journal editorial staff and publications reporting research conducted in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) is unclear.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the association between having editorial staff members affiliated with LMICs and publishing research articles from LMICs in leading biomedical journals.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cross-sectional study included biomedical journals in fields representing the largest disease burden globally from January 1 to December 31, 2020. Websites of the 5 leading journals in general medicine, pediatrics, surgery, obstetrics and gynecology, cancer, cardiovascular diseases, infectious diseases, psychiatry, and nutrition were reviewed to obtain the country affiliations of editorial staff members. To determine article study countries, original research articles in each journal were reviewed through MEDLINE. Editorial staff country affiliations and study country locations were classified according to World Bank income brackets and regions.

EXPOSURE

Editorial staff country affiliation.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Descriptive statistics of the proportion of editorial staff affiliated with each income bracket and region and Spearman rank correlation coefficients were used to assess the association between the proportion of editorial staff affiliated with LMICs and the proportion of published articles reporting work conducted in these countries.

RESULTS

There were 3819 editorial staff members in the 45 included journals: 3637 (95.2%) were affiliated with high-income countries, 140 (3.7%) with upper-middle-income countries, 37 (1.0%) with lower-middle-income countries, and 5 (0.1%) with low-income countries. All 48 editors-in-chief were affiliated with a high-income country. Editorial staff members were mostly affiliated with North American countries (n = 2120 [55.5%]) and European or Central Asian countries (n = 1256 [32.9%]). Of the 10 096 original research articles included in our analysis, 7857 (77.8%) reported research conducted in high-income countries, 1562 (15.5%) reported research conducted in upper-middle-income countries, 507 (5.0%) reported research conducted in lower-middle-income countries, and 170 (1.7%) reported research conducted in low-income countries. Greater editorial staff representation correlated moderately with more published articles reporting research conducted in LMICs (Spearman ρ = 0.51; 95% CI, 0.25-0.70; P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this cross-sectional study, editorial staff in leading biomedical journals were largely composed of individuals affiliated with high-income countries in North America and Europe. A correlation was found between greater editorial staff representation and publication of research focused on LMICs, suggesting that the inclusion of editorial staff affiliated with LMICs may promote the publication of research conducted in those countries.

Reporting of Participant Race and Ethnicity in Published US Pediatric Clinical Trials From 2011 to 2020

Importance

Equitable representation of participants who are members of racial and ethnic minority groups in clinical trials enhances inclusivity in the scientific process and generalizability of results.

Objective

To assess participant race and ethnicity in pediatric clinical trials published from 2011 to 2020.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cross-sectional study examined articles reporting pediatric clinical trials conducted in the US published in 5 leading general pediatric and 5 leading general medical journals from January 1, 2011, to December 31, 2020.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Reporting of participant race and ethnicity and comparison of enrolled participants vs US census populations of pediatric racial and ethnic groups in published clinical trials.

Results

The study included 612 articles reporting pediatric clinical trials during the study period, with 565 618 total participants (median per trial, 200 participants [IQR, 90-571 participants]). Of the 612 articles, 486 (79.4%) reported participant race and 338 (55.2%) reported participant ethnicity. From 2011 to 2020, relative rates of reporting of participant race increased by 7.9% per year (95% CI, 0.2%-16.3% per year) and reporting of ethnicity increased by 11.4% per year (95% CI, 4.8%-18.4% per year). Among articles reporting race and ethnicity, the method of assignment was not reported in 261 of 511 articles (51.1%) and 207 of 359 articles (57.7%), respectively. Black/African American children were enrolled proportionally more than the US population of Black/African American children (odds ratio [OR], 1.88; 95% CI, 1.87-1.89). Hispanic/Latino children were enrolled commensurately with the US population of Hispanic/Latino children (OR, 1.02; 95% CI, 1.01-1.03). American Indian/Alaska Native (OR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.79-0.85), Asian (OR, 0.56; 95% CI, 0.55-0.57), and Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander (OR, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.61-0.72) children were enrolled significantly less compared with the respective US populations of these groups. White children were enrolled less than expected (OR, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.84-0.85) but represented 188 156 (46.0%) of participants in trials reporting race or ethnicity.

Conclusions and Relevance

This cross-sectional study revealed that the proportion of published pediatric clinical trials that reported participant race and ethnicity increased from 2011 to 2020, but participant race and ethnicity were still underreported. Disparities existed in pediatric clinical trial enrollment of American Indian/Alaska Native, Asian, and Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander children. The greater representation of Black/African American children compared with the US population suggests inclusive research practices that could be extended to other historically disenfranchised racial and ethnic groups.

Derivation and validation of a novel risk assessment tool to identify children aged 2–59 months at risk of hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality in 20 countries

Introduction

Existing risk assessment tools to identify children at risk of hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality have shown suboptimal discriminatory value during external validation. Our objective was to derive and validate a novel risk assessment tool to identify children aged 2–59 months at risk of hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality across various settings.

Methods

We used primary, baseline, patient-level data from 11 studies, including children evaluated for pneumonia in 20 low-income and middle-income countries. Patients with complete data were included in a logistic regression model to assess the association of candidate variables with the outcome hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality. Adjusted log coefficients were calculated for each candidate variable and assigned weighted points to derive the Pneumonia Research Partnership to Assess WHO Recommendations (PREPARE) risk assessment tool. We used bootstrapped selection with 200 repetitions to internally validate the PREPARE risk assessment tool.

Results

A total of 27 388 children were included in the analysis (mean age 14.0 months, pneumonia-related case fatality ratio 3.1%). The PREPARE risk assessment tool included patient age, sex, weight-for-age z-score, body temperature, respiratory rate, unconsciousness or decreased level of consciousness, convulsions, cyanosis and hypoxaemia at baseline. The PREPARE risk assessment tool had good discriminatory value when internally validated (area under the curve 0.83, 95% CI 0.81 to 0.84).

Conclusions

The PREPARE risk assessment tool had good discriminatory ability for identifying children at risk of hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality in a large, geographically diverse dataset. After external validation, this tool may be implemented in various settings to identify children at risk of hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality.

Association of Socioeconomic Characteristics With Where Children Receive Emergency Care

OBJECTIVE

Outcomes of emergency care delivered to children vary by patient-level socioeconomic factors and by emergency department (ED) characteristics, including pediatric volume. How these factors intersect in emergency care-seeking patterns among children is not well understood. The objective of this study was to characterize national associations of neighborhood income and insurance type of children with the characteristics of the EDs from which they receive care.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional study of ED visits by children from 2014 to 2017 using the Nationwide Emergency Department Sample. We determined the associations of neighborhood income and patient insurance type with the proportions of visits to EDs by pediatric volume category, both unadjusted and adjusted for patient-level factors including urban-rural status of residence.

RESULTS

Of 107.6 million ED visits by children nationally from 2014 to 2017, children outside of the wealthiest neighborhood income quartile had lower proportions of visits to high-volume pediatric EDs (57.1% poorest quartile, 51.5% second, 56.6% third, 63.5% wealthiest) and greater proportions of visits to low-volume pediatric EDs (4.4% poorest, 6.4% second, 4.6% third, 2.3% wealthiest) than children in the wealthiest quartile. Adjustment for patient-level factors, particularly urban-rural status, inverted this association, revealing that lower neighborhood income was independently associated with visiting higher-volume pediatric EDs. Publicly insured children were modestly more likely to visit higher-volume pediatric EDs than privately insured and uninsured children in both unadjusted and adjusted analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

Nationally, children in lower-income neighborhoods tended to receive care in pediatric EDs with lower volume, an association that appears principally driven by urban-rural differences in access to emergency care.

A Prospective, observational cohort study to identify neonates and children at risk of postdischarge mortality in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania and Monrovia, Liberia: the PPDM study protocol

INTRODUCTION

Over half of the 5 million annual deaths among children aged 0-59 months occur in sub-Saharan Africa. The period immediately after hospitalisation is a vulnerable time in the life of a child in sub-Saharan Africa as postdischarge mortality rates are as high as 1%-18%. Identification of neonates and children who are at highest risk for postdischarge mortality may allow for the direction of interventions to target patients at highest risk.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The Predicting Post-Discharge Mortality study is a prospective, observational study being conducted at Muhimbili National Hospital (Dar es Salaam, Tanzania) and John F. Kennedy Medical Center (Monrovia, Liberia). The aim is to derive and validate two, age population specific, clinical prediction rules for the identification of neonates (n=2000) and children aged 1-59 months (n=2000) at risk for all-cause mortality within 60 days of discharge from the neonatal intensive care unit or paediatric ward. Caregivers of participants will receive phone calls 7, 14, 30, 45 and 60 days after discharge to assess vital status. Candidate predictor variables will include demographic, anthropometric and clinical factors. Elastic net regression will be used to derive the clinical prediction rules. Bootstrapped selection with repetitions will be used for internal validation. Planned secondary analyses include the external validation of existing clinical prediction models, determination of clinicians' ability to identify neonates and children at risk of postdischarge mortality at discharge, analysis of factors associated with hospital readmission and unplanned clinic visits and description of health-seeking behaviours in the postdischarge period.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This study received ethical clearance from the Tanzania National Institute of Medical Research, Muhimbili University of Health and Allied Sciences, the John F. Kennedy Medical Center Institutional Review Board, and the Boston Children's Hospital Institutional Review Board. Findings will be disseminated at scientific conferences and as peer-reviewed publications.

Correlation Between National Institutes of Health Funding for Pediatric Research and Pediatric Disease Burden in the US

IMPORTANCE

The US National Institutes of Health (NIH) is the largest government funding source for biomedical research globally. Burden of disease is one of the factors considered by the NIH in making funding allocations, though it is not known how funding patterns are associated with disease burden for pediatric conditions.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the correlation between NIH funding and disease burden across pediatric conditions.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cross-sectional study evaluates NIH grants funding pediatric research from 2015 to 2018 in the US. Pediatric grants were classified according to disease categories studied. Disease burden for each category was determined using measures from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation and hospitalization data from the 2016 Kids' Inpatient Database.

MAIN OUTCOME AND MEASURE

Correlation between NIH funding and pediatric disease burden using Spearman rank order coefficients and predicted amounts of disease-specific funding based on disease burden estimated from linear regression models.

RESULTS

This study analyzed 14 060 disease-specific pediatric grants awarded by the NIH from 2015 to 2018 in the US. Annual funding for disease categories ranged from $0 to $382 849 631. Funding for pediatric research was correlated with pediatric disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), deaths, years lived with disability, and years of life lost (r, 0.56-0.63; P < 0.001 for all measures). There was also a correlation between funding and hospital-based metrics, including hospital days, number of hospital admissions, and hospital charges (r, 0.67-0.69; P < .001 for all measures). Eight disease categories received greater than $500 million more than predicted levels relative to DALYs, while 5 disease categories were funded more than $50 million less than predicted levels. Based on predicted levels of funding, congenital birth defects; endocrine, metabolic, blood, and immune disorders; and HIV/AIDS were the most overfunded categories relative to DALYs and hospital days. Conditions identified as most underfunded differed depending on use of DALYs or hospital days in estimating predicted funding levels.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

NIH funding for pediatric research was correlated with pediatric disease burden in the US with variable correlation based on the disease metric applied. There was substantial overfunding and underfunding of certain conditions. Ongoing evaluation of pediatric funding patterns using a complementary set of disease measures may help inform and prioritize pediatric research funding.

Pediatric Traumatic Injury Emergency Department Visits and Management in US Children's Hospitals From 2010 to 2019

STUDY OBJECTIVE

To examine trends in trauma-related pediatric emergency department (ED) visits and management in US children's hospitals over 10 years.

METHODS

This is a retrospective, descriptive study of the Pediatric Health Information Systems database, including encounters from 33 US children's hospitals. We included patients aged 0 to 19 years with traumatic injuries from 2010 to 2019 identified using International Classification of Diseases-9 and -10 codes. The primary outcome was prevalence of trauma-related ED visits. The secondary outcomes included ED disposition, advanced imaging use, and trauma care costs. We examined trends over time with Poisson regression models, reporting incidence rate ratios (IRRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). We compared demographic groups with rate differences with 95% CIs.

RESULTS

Trauma-related visits accounted for 367,072 ED visits (16.3%) in 2010 and 479,458 ED visits (18.1%) in 2019 (IRR 1.022, 95% CI 1.018 to 1.026). From 2010 to 2019, 54.6% of children with traumatic injuries belonged to White race and 23.9% had Hispanic ethnicity. Institutional hospitalization rates (range 3.8% to 14.9%) decreased over time (IRR 0.986, 95% CI 0.977 to 0.994). Hospitalizations from 2010 to 2019 were higher in White children (8.9%) than in children of other races (6.4%) (rate difference 2.56, 95% CI 2.51 to 2.61). Magnetic resonance imaging for brain (IRR 1.05, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.07) and cervical spine (IRR 1.03, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.05) evaluation increased. The total trauma care costs were $6.7 billion, with median costs decreasing over time.

CONCLUSION

During the study period, pediatric ED visits for traumatic injuries increased, whereas hospitalizations decreased. Some advanced imaging use increased; however, median trauma costs decreased over time.

Global emergency medicine: A scoping review of the literature from 2020

OBJECTIVE

The objective was to identify, screen, highlight, review, and summarize some of the most rigorously conducted and impactful original research (OR) and review articles (RE) in global emergency medicine (EM) published in 2020 in the peer-reviewed and gray literature.

METHODS

A broad systematic search of peer-reviewed publications related to global EM indexed on PubMed and in the gray literature was conducted. The titles and abstracts of the articles on this list were screened by members of the Global Emergency Medicine Literature Review (GEMLR) Group to identify those that met our criteria of OR or RE in the domains of disaster and humanitarian response (DHR), emergency care in resource-limited settings (ECRLS), and EM development. Those articles that met these screening criteria were then scored using one of three scoring templates appropriate to the article type. Those articles that scored in the top 5% then underwent in-depth narrative summarization.

RESULTS

The 2020 GEMLR search initially identified 35,970 articles, more than 50% more than last year's search. From these, 364 were scored based on their full text. Nearly three-fourths of the scored articles constituted OR, of which nearly three-fourths employed quantitative research methods. Nearly 10% of the articles identified this year were directly related to COVID-19. Research involving ECRLS again constituted most of the articles in this year's review, accounting for more than 60% of the literature scored. A total of 20 articles underwent in-depth narrative critiques.

CONCLUSIONS

The number of studies relevant to global EM identified by our search was very similar to that of last year. Revisions to our methodology to identify a broader range of research were successful in identifying more qualitative research and studies related to DHR. The number of COVID-19-related articles is likely to continue to increase in subsequent years.

External validation of the RISC, RISC-Malawi, and PERCH clinical prediction rules to identify risk of death in children hospitalized with pneumonia

BACKGROUND

Existing scores to identify children at risk of hospitalized pneumonia-related mortality lack broad external validation. Our objective was to externally validate three such risk scores.

METHODS

We applied the Respiratory Index of Severity in Children (RISC) for HIV-negative children, the RISC-Malawi, and the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) scores to hospitalized children in the Pneumonia REsearch Partnerships to Assess WHO REcommendations (PREPARE) data set. The PREPARE data set includes pooled data from 41 studies on pediatric pneumonia from across the world. We calculated test characteristics and the area under the curve (AUC) for each of these clinical prediction rules.

RESULTS

The RISC score for HIV-negative children was applied to 3574 children 0-24 months and demonstrated poor discriminatory ability (AUC = 0.66, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.58-0.73) in the identification of children at risk of hospitalized pneumonia-related mortality. The RISC-Malawi score had fair discriminatory value (AUC = 0.75, 95% CI = 0.74-0.77) among 17 864 children 2-59 months. The PERCH score was applied to 732 children 1-59 months and also demonstrated poor discriminatory value (AUC = 0.55, 95% CI = 0.37-0.73).

CONCLUSIONS

In a large external application of the RISC, RISC-Malawi, and PERCH scores, a substantial number of children were misclassified for their risk of hospitalized pneumonia-related mortality. Although pneumonia risk scores have performed well among the cohorts in which they were derived, their performance diminished when externally applied. A generalizable risk assessment tool with higher sensitivity and specificity to identify children at risk of hospitalized pneumonia-related mortality may be needed. Such a generalizable risk assessment tool would need context-specific validation prior to implementation in that setting.

Where there is no local author: a network bibliometric analysis of authorship parasitism among research conducted in sub-Saharan Africa

INTRODUCTION

Authorship parasitism (ie, no authors affiliated with the country in which the study took place) occurs frequently in research conducted in low-income and middle-income countries, despite published recommendations defining authorship criteria. The objective was to compare characteristics of articles exhibiting authorship parasitism in sub-Saharan Africa to articles with author representation from sub-Saharan African countries.

METHODS

A bibliometric review of articles indexed in PubMed published from January 2014 through December 2018 reporting research conducted in sub-Saharan Africa was performed. Author affiliations were assigned to countries based on regular expression algorithms. Choropleth maps and network diagrams were created to determine where authorship parasitism occurred, and multivariable logistic regression was used to determine associated factors.

RESULTS

Of 32 061 articles, 14.8% (n=4754) demonstrated authorship parasitism, which was most common among studies from Somalia (n=175/233, 75.1%) and Sao Tome and Principe (n=20/28, 71.4%). Authors affiliated with USA and UK institutions were most commonly involved in articles exhibiting authorship parasitism. Authorship parasitism was more common in articles: published in North American journals (adjusted OR (aOR) 1.26, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.50) than in sub-Saharan African journals, reporting work from multiple sub-Saharan African countries (aOR 8.41, 95% CI 7.30 to 9.68) compared with work from upper-middle income sub-Saharan African countries, with <5 authors (aOR 14.46, 95% CI 12.81 to 16.35) than >10 authors, and was less common in articles published in French (aOR 0.60, 95% CI 0.41 to 0.85) than English.

CONCLUSIONS

Authorship parasitism was common in articles reporting research conducted in sub-Saharan Africa. There were reliable predictors of authorship parasitism. Investigators and institutions in high-income countries, as well as funding agencies and journals should promote research from sub-Saharan Africa, including its publication, in a collaborative and equitable manner.

Severe COVID-19 Is Characterized by an Impaired Type I Interferon Response and Elevated Levels of Arginase Producing Granulocytic Myeloid Derived Suppressor Cells

COVID-19 ranges from asymptomatic in 35% of cases to severe in 20% of patients. Differences in the type and degree of inflammation appear to determine the severity of the disease. Recent reports show an increase in circulating monocytic-myeloid-derived suppressor cells (M-MDSC) in severe COVID 19 that deplete arginine but are not associated with respiratory complications. Our data shows that differences in the type, function and transcriptome of granulocytic-MDSC (G-MDSC) may in part explain the severity COVID-19, in particular the association with pulmonary complications. Large infiltrates by Arginase 1+ G-MDSC (Arg+G-MDSC), expressing NOX-1 and NOX-2 (important for production of reactive oxygen species) were found in the lungs of patients who died from COVID-19 complications. Increased circulating Arg+G-MDSC depleted arginine, which impaired T cell receptor and endothelial cell function. Transcriptomic signatures of G-MDSC from patients with different stages of COVID-19, revealed that asymptomatic patients had increased expression of pathways and genes associated with type I interferon (IFN), while patients with severe COVID-19 had increased expression of genes associated with arginase production, and granulocyte degranulation and function. These results suggest that asymptomatic patients develop a protective type I IFN response, while patients with severe COVID-19 have an increased inflammatory response that depletes arginine, impairs T cell and endothelial cell function, and causes extensive pulmonary damage. Therefore, inhibition of arginase-1 and/or replenishment of arginine may be important in preventing/treating severe COVID-19.

An analysis of clinical predictive values for radiographic pneumonia in children

Introduction

Healthcare providers in resource-limited settings rely on the presence of tachypnoea and chest indrawing to establish a diagnosis of pneumonia in children. We aimed to determine the test characteristics of commonly assessed signs and symptoms for the radiographic diagnosis of pneumonia in children 0–59 months of age.

Methods

We conducted an analysis using patient-level pooled data from 41 shared datasets of paediatric pneumonia. We included hospital-based studies in which >80% of children had chest radiography performed. Primary endpoint pneumonia (presence of dense opacity occupying a portion or entire lobe of the lung or presence of pleural effusion on chest radiograph) was used as the reference criterion radiographic standard. We assessed the sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratios for clinical findings, and combinations of findings, for the diagnosis of primary endpoint pneumonia among children 0–59 months of age.

Results

Ten studies met inclusion criteria comprising 15 029 children; 24.9% (n=3743) had radiographic pneumonia. The presence of age-based tachypnoea demonstrated a sensitivity of 0.92 and a specificity of 0.22 while lower chest indrawing revealed a sensitivity of 0.74 and specificity of 0.15 for the diagnosis of radiographic pneumonia. The sensitivity and specificity for oxygen saturation <90% was 0.40 and 0.67, respectively, and was 0.17 and 0.88 for oxygen saturation <85%. Specificity was improved when individual clinical factors such as tachypnoea, fever and hypoxaemia were combined, however, the sensitivity was lower.

Conclusions

No single sign or symptom was strongly associated with radiographic primary end point pneumonia in children. Performance characteristics were improved by combining individual signs and symptoms.

Reducing rates of discharge against medical advice in the neonatal intensive care unit in a tertiary care hospital in South India: a mixed-methods study

OBJECTIVE

To elucidate characteristics among neonates and their mothers who were discharged against medical advice (DAMA), providers' perspectives on DAMA and the effect of an intervention to reduce DAMA in a tertiary care hospital in South India.

METHODS

We conducted a mixed-methods study to identify neonates at risk of DAMA. We reviewed charts of neonates and their mothers who were DAMA and conducted logit regression analysis to calculate adjusted odds ratios (aOR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) to determine associations with DAMA. We conducted focus group discussions with nurses and doctors. We developed an intervention that included family counselling, supplemental funds for hospital bills and involving family members to reduce DAMA.

RESULTS

Of 10 834 neonates, 179 (1.7%) were DAMA over the study period. Maternal characteristics associated with DAMA included higher previous parity (aOR 1.9, 95% CI 1.1-2.3, P = 0.001). Mothers who received antenatal care had lower odds of DAMA (aOR 0.2, 95% CI 0.1-0.7, P = 0.039). Neonates with lower birth weight (aOR 2.1, 95% CI 1.7-9.4, P = 0.002) and congenital malformations (aOR 3.3, 95% CI 1.1-5.3, P = 0.005) also had higher odds of DAMA. The most commonly cited reasons for DAMA were financial constraints, inadequate counselling and perceived poor prognosis. The average monthly number of neonates who were DAMA decreased from 3.6 (1.6%) to 1.5 (0.6%) after our multi-pronged intervention.

CONCLUSIONS

Neonates with severe illness and poor prognosis had higher odds of DAMA. A multi-pronged intervention demonstrated reductions in the rates of DAMA. This intervention may be trialled in similar settings to reduce DAMA.

Association between Antiretroviral Therapy and Cancers among Children Living with HIV in Sub-Saharan Africa

Simple Summary

Most children infected with HIV live in Sub-Sahara Africa (SSA). These children are at risk of cancers related to HIV infection, but the degree of this risk and how it is influenced by antiretroviral therapy (ART) is unknown. In this study, we determined the subtypes, incidence, and risk factors of cancers in children with HIV in SSA and receiving ART with the goal of learning how we may prevent these cancers. We found that Kaposi sarcoma and lymphoma are the most common, comprising about 77% and 19% of cancers in these children, respectively. For every 100,000 person-years, 47.6 children developed cancer. Waiting to start ART until after 2 years old and having had severe immunosuppression were the two biggest risk factors for cancer that we identified. The findings justify the recommendations to start children on ART as soon as they are diagnosed with HIV regardless of their CD4 immune status.

Abstract

Approximately 91% of the world’s children living with HIV (CLWH) are in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Living with HIV confers a risk of developing HIV-associated cancers. To determine the incidence and risk factors for cancer among CLWH, we conducted a nested case-control study of children 0–18 years from 2004–2014 at five centers in four SSA countries. Incident cases of cancer and HIV were frequency-matched to controls with HIV and no cancer. We calculated the incidence density by cancer type, logistic regression, and relative risk to evaluate risk factors of cancer. The adjusted incidence density of all cancers, Kaposi sarcoma, and lymphoma were 47.6, 36.6, and 8.94 per 100,000 person-years, respectively. Delayed ART until after 2 years of age was associated with cancer (OR = 2.71, 95% CI 1.51, 4.89) even after adjusting for World Health Organization clinical stage at the time of enrolment for HIV care (OR = 2.85, 95% CI 1.57, 5.13). The relative risk of cancer associated with severe CD4 suppression was 6.19 (p = 0.0002), 2.33 (p = 0.0042), and 1.77 (p = 0.0305) at 1, 5, and 10 years of ART, respectively. The study demonstrates the high risk of cancers in CLWH and the potential benefit of reducing this risk by the early initiation of ART.

Inter-Region Transfers for Pandemic Surges

Background

Hospital inpatient and intensive care unit (ICU) bed shortfalls may arise due to regional surges in volume. We sought to determine how inter-region transfers could alleviate bed shortfalls during a pandemic.

Methods

We used estimates of past and projected inpatient and ICU cases of COVID-19 from February 4, 2020 to October 1, 2020. For regions with bed shortfalls (where the number of patients exceeded bed capacity), transfers to the nearest region with unused beds were simulated using an algorithm that minimized total inter-region transfer distances across the U.S. Model scenarios used a range of predicted COVID-19 volumes (lower, mean, and upper bounds) and non-COVID-19 volumes (20%, 50%, or 80% of baseline hospital volumes). Scenarios were created for each day of data, and worst-case scenarios were created treating all regions’ peak volumes as simultaneous. Mean per-patient transfer distances were calculated by scenario.

Results

For the worst-case scenarios, national bed shortfalls ranged from 669 to 58,562 inpatient beds and 3,208 to 31,190 ICU beds, depending on model volume parameters. Mean transfer distances to alleviate daily bed shortfalls ranged from 23 to 352 miles for inpatient and 28 to 423 miles for ICU patients, depending on volume. Under all worst-case scenarios except the highest-volume ICU scenario, inter-regional transfers could fully resolve bed shortfalls. To do so, mean transfer distances would be 24 to 405 miles for inpatients and 73 to 476 miles for ICU patients.

Conclusions

Inter-region transfers could mitigate regional bed shortfalls during pandemic hospital surges.

Risk factors for mortality among Tanzanian infants and children

BACKGROUND

During the era of the Millennium Development Goals, under 5 mortality rates decreased significantly worldwide; however, reductions were not equally distributed. Children in sub-Saharan Africa still account for more than 50% of the world's annual childhood deaths among children under 5 years of age. Understanding upstream risk factors for mortality among children may reduce the large burden of childhood mortality in sub-Saharan Africa. Our objective was to identify risk factors for mortality among infants and children in Tanzania.

METHODS

We conducted a secondary analysis of data pooled from two randomized-controlled micronutrient supplementation trials. A total of 4787 infants were enrolled in the two trials (n = 2387 HIV-exposed and n = 2400 HIV-unexposed). Predictors of mortality were assessed using unadjusted and adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs).

RESULTS

There were 307 total deaths, 262 (11%) among children who were HIV-exposed and 45 (2%) among children who were HIV-unexposed (P < 0.001). The most common cause of death was respiratory diseases (n = 109, 35.5%). Causes of death did not significantly differ between HIV-exposed and HIV-unexposed children. In adjusted regression analyses, children with birth weight <2500 g (aHR 1.75, 95% CI 1.21-2.54), Apgar score of ≤7 at 5 min (aHR 2.16, 95% CI 1.29-3.62), or who were HIV-exposed but not infected (aHR 3.35, 95% CI 2.12-5.28) or HIV-infected (aHR 27.56, 95% CI 17.43-43.58) had greater risk of mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Infection with HIV, low birthweight, or low Apgar scores were associated with higher mortality risk. Early identification and modification of determinants of mortality among infants and children may be the first step to reducing such deaths.