Climate change, thermal anomalies, and the recent progression of dengue in Brazil

Dengue is rapidly expanding its transmission area across Brazil and much of South America. In this study, data-mining techniques were used to identify climatic and demographic indicators that could explain the recent (2014-2020) and simultaneous trends of expansion and exacerbation of the incidence in some regions of Brazil. The previous circulation of the virus (dengue incidence rates between 2007 and 2013), urbanization, and the occurrence of temperature anomalies for a prolonged period were the main factors that led to increased incidence of dengue in the central region of Brazil. Regions with high altitudes, which previously acted as a barrier for dengue transmission, became areas of high incidence rates. The algorithm that was developed during this study can be utilized to assess future climate scenarios and plan preventive actions.

Covid-19 Fiocruz Observatory - an analysis of the evolution of the pandemic from February 2020 to April 2022

The COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on the living and working conditions of the entire population of Brazil, having a different and more intense effect on groups considered to be vulnerable. The objective of this article is to present an overview of the evolution of the pandemic in the country according to the bulletins of the Covid-19 Fiocruz Observatory in the period between the declarations of the beginning and end of the Public Health Emergency of National Concern (ESPIN, in Portuguese), February 2020 to April 2022. Several of the indicators adopted in the 69 bulletins published for the analysis of the pandemic were used, such as cases and deaths due to SARIs and COVID-19, age groups, % of occupancy of ICU beds, and vaccination, among others. The evolution analysis was organized between years and phases of the pandemic, seeking to highlight what characterized each moment. The closing statement of ESPIN in Brazil coincides with the discussions on the transition from a pandemic to an endemic scenario, without this representing the elimination of the virus, infections, and disease, posing the challenges of advances in vaccination processes in Brazil and around the world, as well as living with scenarios that may require the adoption of temporary protection measures in epidemic periods and periods of greater risk for vulnerable groups.

ArboAlvo: stratification method for territorial receptivity to urban arboviruses

OBJECTIVE

To present the urban arboviruses (dengue, zika and chikungunya) stratification methodology by the territorial receptivity Index, an instrument for the surveillance and control of these diseases, which considers the heterogeneity of an intra-municipal territory.

METHODS

Ecological study that uses as unit of analysis the areas covered by health centers in Belo Horizonte. For the development of a territorial receptivity index, indicators of socio-environmental determination of urban arboviruses were selected in order to integrate the analysis of main components. The resulting components were weighted by the analytic hierarchy process and combined via map algebra.

RESULTS

The territorial receptivity index showed great heterogeneity of urban infrastructure conditions. The areas classified with high and very high receptivity correspond to approximately 33% of the occupied area and are mainly concentrated in the administrative planning regions of East, Northeast, North, West, and Barreiro, especially in areas surrounding the municipality. When the density of dengue cases and Aedes eggs, from 2016, were superimposed with the stratification by the index of territorial receptivity to urban arboviruses, areas of very high receptivity had a high density of cases and Aedes eggs – higher than that observed in other areas of the city, which corresponds to a very small percentage of the municipal territory (13.5%).

CONCLUSION

The analyses indicate the need for the development of adequate surveillance and control actions for each context, overcoming the logic of homogeneous allocation throughout the territory.

Ecological and environmental factors affecting transmission of sylvatic yellow fever in the 2017-2019 outbreak in the Atlantic Forest, Brazil

BACKGROUND

Yellow fever virus (YFV) is an arbovirus that, despite the existence of a safe and effective vaccine, continues to cause outbreaks of varying dimensions in the Americas and Africa. Between 2017 and 2019, Brazil registered un unprecedented sylvatic YFV outbreak whose severity was the result of its spread into zones of the Atlantic Forest with no signals of viral circulation for nearly 80 years.

METHODS

To investigate the influence of climatic, environmental, and ecological factors governing the dispersion and force of infection of YFV in a naïve area such as the landscape mosaic of Rio de Janeiro (RJ), we combined the analyses of a large set of data including entomological sampling performed before and during the 2017-2019 outbreak, with the geolocation of human and nonhuman primates (NHP) and mosquito infections.

RESULTS

A greater abundance of Haemagogus mosquitoes combined with lower richness and diversity of mosquito fauna increased the probability of finding a YFV-infected mosquito. Furthermore, the analysis of functional traits showed that certain functional groups, composed mainly of Aedini mosquitoes which includes Aedes and Haemagogus mosquitoes, are also more representative in areas where infected mosquitoes were found. Human and NHP infections were more common in two types of landscapes: large and continuous forest, capable of harboring many YFV hosts, and patches of small forest fragments, where environmental imbalance can lead to a greater density of the primary vectors and high human exposure. In both, we show that most human infections (~ 62%) occurred within an 11-km radius of the finding of an infected NHP, which is in line with the flight range of the primary vectors.

CONCLUSIONS

Together, our data suggest that entomological data and landscape composition analyses may help to predict areas permissive to yellow fever outbreaks, allowing protective measures to be taken to avoid human cases.

ARBOALVO: estratificação territorial para definição de áreas de pronta resposta para vigilância e controle de arboviroses urbanas em tempo oportuno

O objetivo deste trabalho foi apresentar a proposta metodológica denominada de “Pronta Resposta” modelada nas cidades de Belo Horizonte (Minas Gerais) e Natal (Rio Grande do Norte), Brasil. A metodologia visa identificar e delimitar áreas prioritárias para o direcionamento das ações de vigilância em tempo oportuno, buscando a redução da intensidade e velocidade da dispersão de epidemias em áreas urbanas endêmicas. Para tanto, a metodologia utiliza três variáveis, que representam as causas necessárias para a produção e reprodução da dengue: casos notificados (vírus), ovos de Aedes (vetor) e população (hospedeiro). Trata-se de um estudo ecológico que utilizou os dados dos três planos de informações agregados em escalas temporais e espaciais mais finas, de três a quatro semanas e grades de 400 a 600 metros respectivamente. As áreas de pronta resposta foram definidas por meio de análise estatística de varredura Scan, com definição de clusters espaciais simultâneos para os três planos por meio do programa SaTScan. Os resultados observados foram: na cidade de Natal, as áreas definidas como pronta resposta ocuparam em média 15,2% do território do município e concentraram 67,77% dos casos de dengue do período posterior ao utilizado na delimitação das áreas de pronta resposta, e em Belo Horizonte, os números observados foram de 64,16% dos casos em 23,23% do território. Esses resultados foram obtidos em duas cidades com realidades socioambientais e geográficas diferentes e com perfis epidemiológicos também distintos, apontando que a metodologia pode ser aplicada em diferentes realidades urbanas, criando a possibilidade de os programas de controle atuarem em porções reduzidas do território e impactar num alto percentual de casos em tempo oportuno.

Production of Urban Space and the occurrence of malaria in the Brazilian Amazon: the Porto Velho case

Due to intense ongoing urbanization in the Amazon, the urban pattern of malaria may be changing, both in its spatial distribution and epidemiological profile. The purpose of this paper is to analyze how the process of production of urban space in Porto Velho, the capital of the state of Rondonia, Brazil has contributed to the occurrence and maintenance of urban malaria. Using data collected from the Malaria Epidemiological Surveillance System (SIVEP-Malaria), we calculated malaria indices for the districts of Porto Velho from 2005 to 2018. We also developed two typologies for classifying urban space based on functional characteristics and features of the landscape. While the former considers characteristics of urban space in Porto Velho, the latter is based on suitability for malaria vectors. We found that the annual parasite index declined in Porto Velho during the study period. However, changes in the index were not uniform across the districts of the city. Periurban areas showed no decline in the index, which we attribute to these areas' high vegetation density and hydrological characteristics.

Increasing impact of COVID-19 on young adults: evidence from hospitalisations in Brazil

OBJECTIVES

Concerns about the increasing impact of severe COVID-19 in younger individuals in Brazil came after a recent synchronised country-wide wave of cases in Brazil. This communication analyses how hospitalisations due to COVID-19 changed in the age groups 18-49 years and ≥70 years.

STUDY DESIGN

Longitudinal study based on secondary data.

METHODS

Data from SIVEP-Gripe, a public and open-access database of Severe Acute Respiratory Illness records (including COVID-19 notifications), were used in this study. Statistical control charts examined changes in the magnitude and variation of younger (18-49 years) and older (≥70 years) adults who were hospitalised between 15th March 2020 and 19th June 2021.

RESULTS

During the few first weeks of the pandemic in Brazil, the number of COVID-19 hospitalisations increased in older adults but decreased in younger adults. Subsequently, hospitalisations reached statistical control zones in epidemiological weeks (EW) 19-48 of 2020 (EW 19-48/2020) and EW 03-05/2021 (18-49 y, mean = 26.1%; ≥70 y, mean = 32.8%). Between EW 49/2020 and EW 02/2021, the number of hospitalisations of younger adults dropped to levels below the lower control limit. In contrast, the number of hospitalisations of older adults surpassed the upper limit of the corresponding statistical control zones. However, from EW 06/2021, numbers of hospitalisations changed from statistical control zones, with hospitalisations of younger adults increasing and reaching 44.9% in EW 24/2021 and hospitalisations of older adults decreasing until EW 19/2021 (14.1%) and reaching 17.3% in EW 24/2021.

CONCLUSIONS

An increasing number of COVID-19 hospitalisations were observed in younger adults from EW 06/2021. This could be a result of the successful vaccination programme in older adults, who were initially prioritised, and possibly an increased exposure to highly transmissible variants of COVID-19 in younger adults who had to go to work in the absence of social protection (i.e. government financial support). Potential consequences of COVID-19 hospitalisations in younger adults could include a reduced life expectancy of the population and an increased number of people unable to perform daily activities due to post-COVID-19 conditions.

Geographical information system and spatial-temporal statistics for monitoring infectious agents in hospital: a model using Klebsiella pneumoniae complex

Background

The emergence and spread of antimicrobial resistance and infectious agents have challenged hospitals in recent decades. Our aim was to investigate the circulation of target infectious agents using Geographic Information System (GIS) and spatial–temporal statistics to improve surveillance and control of healthcare-associated infection and of antimicrobial resistance (AMR), using Klebsiella pneumoniae complex as a model.

Methods

A retrospective study carried out in a 450-bed federal, tertiary hospital, located in Rio de Janeiro. All isolates of K. pneumoniae complex from clinical and surveillance cultures of hospitalized patients between 2014 and 2016, identified by the use of Vitek-2 system (BioMérieux), were extracted from the hospital's microbiology laboratory database. A basic scaled map of the hospital’s physical structure was created in AutoCAD and converted to QGis software (version 2.18). Thereafter, bacteria according to resistance profiles and patients with carbapenem-resistant K. pneumoniae (CRKp) complex were georeferenced by intensive and nonintensive care wards. Space–time permutation probability scan tests were used for cluster signals detection.

Results

Of the total 759 studied isolates, a significant increase in the resistance profile of K. pneumoniae complex was detected during the studied years. We also identified two space–time clusters affecting adult and paediatric patients harbouring CRKp complex on different floors, unnoticed by regular antimicrobial resistance surveillance.

Conclusions

In-hospital GIS with space–time statistical analysis can be applied in hospitals. This spatial methodology has the potential to expand and facilitate early detection of hospital outbreaks and may become a new tool in combating AMR or hospital-acquired infection.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13756-021-00944-5.

Combined effects of hydrometeorological hazards and urbanisation on dengue risk in Brazil: a spatiotemporal modelling study

BACKGROUND

Temperature and rainfall patterns are known to influence seasonal patterns of dengue transmission. However, the effect of severe drought and extremely wet conditions on the timing and intensity of dengue epidemics is poorly understood. In this study, we aimed to quantify the non-linear and delayed effects of extreme hydrometeorological hazards on dengue risk by level of urbanisation in Brazil using a spatiotemporal model.

METHODS

We combined distributed lag non-linear models with a spatiotemporal Bayesian hierarchical model framework to determine the exposure-lag-response association between the relative risk (RR) of dengue and a drought severity index. We fit the model to monthly dengue case data for the 558 microregions of Brazil between January, 2001, and January, 2019, accounting for unobserved confounding factors, spatial autocorrelation, seasonality, and interannual variability. We assessed the variation in RR by level of urbanisation through an interaction between the drought severity index and urbanisation. We also assessed the effect of hydrometeorological hazards on dengue risk in areas with a high frequency of water supply shortages.

FINDINGS

The dataset included 12 895 293 dengue cases reported between 2001 and 2019 in Brazil. Overall, the risk of dengue increased between 0-3 months after extremely wet conditions (maximum RR at 1 month lag 1·56 [95% CI 1·41-1·73]) and 3-5 months after drought conditions (maximum RR at 4 months lag 1·43 [1·22-1·67]). Including a linear interaction between the drought severity index and level of urbanisation improved the model fit and showed the risk of dengue was higher in more rural areas than highly urbanised areas during extremely wet conditions (maximum RR 1·77 [1·32-2·37] at 0 months lag vs maximum RR 1·58 [1·39-1·81] at 2 months lag), but higher in highly urbanised areas than rural areas after extreme drought (maximum RR 1·60 [1·33-1·92] vs 1·15 [1·08-1·22], both at 4 months lag). We also found the dengue risk following extreme drought was higher in areas that had a higher frequency of water supply shortages.

INTERPRETATION

Wet conditions and extreme drought can increase the risk of dengue with different delays. The risk associated with extremely wet conditions was higher in more rural areas and the risk associated with extreme drought was exacerbated in highly urbanised areas, which have water shortages and intermittent water supply during droughts. These findings have implications for targeting mosquito control activities in poorly serviced urban areas, not only during the wet and warm season, but also during drought periods.

FUNDING

Royal Society, Medical Research Council, Wellcome Trust, National Institutes of Health, Fundação Carlos Chagas Filho de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, and Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico.

TRANSLATION

For the Portuguese translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

A Perspective on Inhabited Urban Space: Land Use and Occupation, Heat Islands, and Precarious Urbanization as Determinants of Territorial Receptivity to Dengue in the City of Rio De Janeiro

INTRODUCTION

Rio de Janeiro is the second-largest city in Brazil, with strong socio-spatial segregation, and diverse and heterogeneous land use, occupation, and landscapes. The complexity of dengue requires the construction of surveillance and control tools that take into account the historical, social, economic, and environmental processes mediated in the territory as a central axis of public policy. In this context, this study aimed to stratify the city into areas of receptivity to dengue, using innovative "territorial indicators" because they are built based on the actual occupation of the territory.

METHODS

We designed and constructed 17 indicators that sought to characterize the transformed and inhabited space according to receptivity to dengue. We used data on land use and occupation, connectivity, climate, and landscape. We developed the dengue receptivity through principal component analysis (PCA), using multiple criteria analysis and map algebra integrated in a GIS platform.

RESULTS

The most receptive areas were concentrated in the transition between the north and west zones of the city, a region of unconsolidated urban sprawl. The areas of greatest receptivity had the highest incidence and density of Aedes eggs during the study period. The correlation between receptivity index and incidence rate was positive in the epidemic years.

CONCLUSION

The proposed set of indicators was able to identify areas of greater receptivity, such as regions of disorderly urban sprawl, with a concentration of social and environmental processes that are related to the occurrence of dengue outbreaks and high vector density. On the other hand, population immunity plays an important role in the spatial distribution of dengue during non-epidemic years.

Contributing to Elimination of Cross-Border Malaria Through a Standardized Solution for Case Surveillance, Data Sharing, and Data Interpretation: Development of a Cross-Border Monitoring System

Background

Cross-border malaria is a significant obstacle to achieving malaria control and elimination worldwide.

Objective

This study aimed to build a cross-border surveillance system that can make comparable and qualified data available to all parties involved in malaria control between French Guiana and Brazil.

Methods

Data reconciliation rules based on expert knowledge were defined and applied to the heterogeneous data provided by the existing malaria surveillance systems of both countries. Visualization dashboards were designed to facilitate progressive data exploration, analysis, and interpretation. Dedicated advanced open source and robust software solutions were chosen to facilitate solution sharing and reuse.

Results

A database gathering the harmonized data on cross-border malaria epidemiology is updated monthly with new individual malaria cases from both countries. Online dashboards permit a progressive and user-friendly visualization of raw data and epidemiological indicators, in the form of time series, maps, and data quality indexes. The monitoring system was shown to be able to identify changes in time series that are related to control actions, as well as differentiated changes according to space and to population subgroups.

Conclusions

This cross-border monitoring tool could help produce new scientific evidence on cross-border malaria dynamics, implementing cross-border cooperation for malaria control and elimination, and can be quickly adapted to other cross-border contexts.

An analysis of malaria in the Brazilian Legal Amazon using divergent association rules

In data analysis, the mining of frequent patterns plays an important role in the discovery of associations and correlations between data. During this process, it is common to produce thousands of association rules (ARs), making the study of each one arduous. This problem weakens the process of finding useful information. There is a scientific effort to develop approaches capable of filtering interesting patterns, balancing the number of ARs produced with the goal of not being trivial and known by specialists. However, even when such approaches are adopted, the number of produced ARs can still be high. This work contributes by presenting Divergent Association Rules Approach (DARA), a novel approach for obtaining ARs that presents themselves in divergence with the data distribution. DARA is applied right after traditional approaches to filtering interesting patterns. To validate our approach, we studied the dataset related to the occurrence of malaria in the Brazilian Legal Amazon. The discovered patterns highlight that ARs brought relevant insights from the data. This article contributes both in the medical and computer science fields since this novel computational approach enabled new findings regarding malaria in Brazil.

[Natural disasters and their costs for healthcare establishments in Brazil, 2000 to 2015]

Natural disasters result in impacts on the population's health, damage to healthcare establishments, and, in extreme situations, the health systems' breakdown. National and global trends show an increase in the frequency of disasters associated with climate change. This article aims to analyze the impacts and economic costs of natural disasters for healthcare establishments, identifying the most frequent and costly types and distribution across the Brazilian territory, based on data recorded in Brazil's Integrated Disaster Information System (S2ID) from 2000 to 2015. A total of 15,950 records were systematized and analyzed, of which only 29.4% of the events showed records of costs, totaling nearly BRL 4 billion. Climate disasters were the most frequent, but they did not account for the highest costs. In the cost per event ratio, the costs of hydrological disasters were 3.2 to 3.6 higher than for climate and geologic disasters. Pernambuco, Amazonas, and Santa Catarina were the states with highest total costs in millions of Brazilian reais. The North region, especially the state of Acre, had the highest cost per disaster. Despite the study's limitations (involving the records' quality), the data should be viewed as the tip of an iceberg, since the impacts go beyond the economic damages, impacting the infrastructure and resources that support services, compromising their capacity precisely when the population most needs health services.

Zika epidemic and microcephaly in Brazil: Challenges for access to health care and promotion in three epidemic areas

Since 2015 Brazil has experienced the social repercussions of the Zika virus epidemic, thus raising a debate about: difficulties of diagnosis; healthcare access for children with Zika Congenital Syndrome (ZCS); the search for benefits by affected families; social and gender inequalities; and a discussion on reproductive rights, among others. The objective of this article is to analyse access to specialized health services for the care of children born with ZCS in three North-eastern states of Brazil. This is an exploratory cross-sectional study which analyses recorded cases of microcephaly at the municipal level between 2015 and 2017. Most of the cases of ZCS were concentrated on the Northeast coast. Rio Grande do Norte and Paraiba had the highest incidence of microcephaly in the study period. The states of Bahia, Paraiba and Rio Grande do Norte were selected for their high incidence of microcephaly due to the Zika Virus. Socio-territorial vulnerability was stratified using access to microcephaly diagnosis and treatment indicators. The specialized care network was mapped according to State Health Secretaries Protocols. A threshold radius of 100 km was stablished as the maximum distance from municipalities centroids to specialised health care for children with microcephaly. Prenatal coverage was satisfactory in most of the study area, although availability of ultrasound equipment was uneven within states and health regions. Western Bahia had the lowest coverage of ultrasound equipment and lacked health rehabilitation services. ZCS's specialized health services were spread out over large areas, some of which were outside the affected patients' home municipalities, so displacements were expensive and very time consuming, representing an extra burden for the affected families. This study is the first to address accessibility of children with microcephaly to specialised health care services and points to the urgent need to expand coverage of these services in Brazil, especially in the northeastern states, which are most affected by the epidemic.

An integrated dataset of malaria notifications in the Legal Amazon

OBJECTIVES

Malaria is an infectious disease that annually presents around 200,000 cases in Brazil. The availability of data on malaria is crucial for enabling and supporting studies that can promote actions to prevent it. Therefore, the goal of this paper is to contribute to such studies by offering an integrated dataset containing data on reported and suspected cases of malaria in the Brazilian Legal Amazon comprising the period from the years 2009 to 2019.

DATA DESCRIPTION

This paper presents a dataset with all medical records of patients who were tested for malaria in the Brazilian Legal Amazon from 2009 to 2019. The dataset has 40 attributes and 22,923,977 records of suspected cases of malaria. Around 12% of the data correspond to confirmed cases of malaria. The attributes include data regarding the notifications, examinations, as well as personal patient information, which are organized into health regions.

Dengue spatiotemporal dynamics in the Federal District, Brazil: occurrence and permanence of epidemics

The specific characteristics of the Federal District (DF) favor the introduction, reproduction, dissemination, and permanence of dengue vector and viruses. Here, we aimed to analyze the spatiotemporal patterns of dengue epidemics in the Administrative Regions (RAs) of the DF from January 2007 to December 2017. We used Fourier partial series model to obtain a seasonal signature of the time series, which allowed calculating indicators of permanence (number of epidemic years, number of epidemic months per year, the proportion of epidemic months for the period) and time/moment of epidemics (month of epidemic peak). A total of 82 epidemics were recorded in this period. The RAs with the largest number of epidemic years were Varjão (5 epidemics), Gama, Lago Sul, and Sobradinho (4 epidemics). These last three RAs also had the highest proportions of epidemic months of the entire study period (9 epidemic months). The RAs with urban centrality function had an earlier epidemic peak than the others, in February and March. Epidemics showed high permanence values in RAs with different types of occupations, emphasizing the need to consider the social organization of space processes in dengue distribution studies.

[Microdatasus: a package for downloading and preprocessing microdata from Brazilian Health Informatics Department (DATASUS)]

This study aimed to develop an algorithm for downloading and preprocessing microdata furnished by the Brazilian Health Informatics Department (DATASUS) for various health information systems, using the R statistical programming language. The package allows downloading and preprocessing data from various health information systems, with the inclusion of labeling categorical fields in the files. The download function was capable of directly accessing and reducing the workload for the selection of microdata files and variables in DATASUS, while the preprocessing function enabled automatic coding of various categorical fields. The package thus enables a continuous workflow in the same program, in which the algorithm allows downloading and preprocessing and other packages in R allow analyzing data from the health information systems in the Brazilian Unified National Health System (SUS).

Spatial spread of malaria and economic frontier expansion in the Brazilian Amazon

The temporal and spatial evolution of malaria was described for the postfrontier phase of the Brazilian Amazon in 2003–2013. The current ecological study aimed to understand the relationship between spatial population mobility and the distribution of malaria cases. The study identified epidemiologically relevant areas using regional statistical modeling and spatial analyses that considered differential infections and types of work activities. Annual parasite incidence (API) in the region was highest in hotspots along the Amazon River and in the south and west settlement zone of Hiléia, with concentrations in environmental protection areas and açaí and Brazil nut extraction areas. The dispersal force decreased in the Central Amazon due to rapid urbanization and improved socioeconomic conditions for workers in consolidated settlement areas. The study characterized the spatial patterns of disease transmission according to the economic activity and regionalization of geographic areas, confirming that the incidence of infection by work activity and labor flow is linked to extractive activities and agricultural settlements.

As Regiões de Saúde no Brasil segundo internações: método para apoio na regionalização de saúde

Este estudo aborda as regionalizações da saúde em várias escalas espaciais com base no fluxo de pacientes. Para isso, foram analisados dados por meio do relacionamento das informações de origem e destino das interações realizadas em nível municipal no Brasil em 2016. A análise tem como base a teoria dos grafos e utiliza um algoritmo de modularidade que busca agrupar municípios em comunidades que detêm grande número de conexões entre si. O algoritmo otimiza o número de entradas e saídas, levando em consideração o fluxo de pacientes. Os resultados são apresentados considerando diferentes estruturas espaciais político-administrativas. Levando-se em conta o fluxo de pacientes sem restrições espaciais foram constituídas 29 comunidades no país, 64 comunidades quando respeitados os limites das grandes regiões e 164 considerando os deslocamentos apenas dentro dos estados. Os resultados demonstram a importância de regiões historicamente constituídas, desconsiderando limites administrativos, para a efetivação do acesso a serviços de saúde. Também revelam a aderência aos limites administrativos em muitas Unidades da Federação, demonstrando a importância dessa escala espacial no contexto do acesso às internações. A metodologia usada traz contribuições relevantes para o planejamento regional em saúde.

Estudo de análise de rede do fluxo de pacientes de câncer de mama no Brasil entre 2014 e 2016

Resumo: Este estudo busca analisar o fluxo de pacientes oncológicos de mama que são atendidos fora de seu domicílio de residência. Foram considerados as internações hospitalares e os tratamentos por quimioterapia e radioterapia para neoplasias malignas na mama, no âmbito do Sistema Único de Saúde, entre os anos de 2014 e 2016. Foi empregado o método de análise de redes, considerando o município de residência e de tratamento como nós de um grafo, que consiste em um “estudo de redes organizacionais de sistemas de saúde”. Além disso, distância e tempo de deslocamento foram estimados por meio da melhor rota viável, segundo a malha rodoviária do projeto Open Street Maps. Os resultados apontam que 51,34% dos pacientes de câncer de mama no Brasil foram atendidos fora de seu município de residência, seguindo fluxos que são regionalizados e que preservam fronteiras estaduais, em geral, em direção a capitais ou a cidades de grande porte. Por outro lado, os resultados também apontam exceções específicas, visto que alguns municípios detêm um grau de proeminência que supera os limites estaduais. O tempo de deslocamento entre município de residência e município de atendimento apresentou medianas próximas a três horas, e 75% dos deslocamentos se dão em até 324km para tratamento por quimioterapia, 287km para tratamento por radioterapia e 282km para internações. Esses resultados são indicativos das dificuldades de acesso aos serviços de oncologia, o que potencialmente agrava a experiência do adoecimento oncológico em termos de impacto no indivíduo e em sua família.

Drought in the Semiarid Region of Brazil: Exposure, Vulnerabilities and Health Impacts from the Perspectives of Local Actors

INTRODUCTION

The objective of this study was to understand and assess the perception of communities, organized civil society, health professionals, and decision-makers of several governmental institutions, regarding vulnerabilities and health impacts in drought prone municipalities of Brazil.

METHODS

This study was carried out through a qualitative investigation in eight municipalities in the Brazilian Semiarid region. Data collection was done through semi-structure and structure interviews, and discussion with local actors, which included communities groups, health professionals, governmental managers and organized civil society.

RESULTS

The results point to the local actors' concerns and to the fragility of the health sector in the planning of integrated actions directed towards risks and impacts associated with drought conditions on human health.

DISCUSSION

The lack of a specific knowledge contributes to making invisible the process that determines the impacts of drought on health, leading to an acceptance of drought in those municipalities, reducing the capacity of the health system to respond to droughts.

KEYWORDS

drought, vulnerability, risks, health, perception, Brazilian Semiarid, resilience.

[Intraurban differentials in congenital syphilis: a predictive analysis by neighborhood in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil]

The study aimed to characterize notified cases of congenital syphilis from 2011 to 2014 in the city of Rio de Janeiro and to analyze possible associations between congenital syphilis and living conditions in the city's neighborhoods. Cases of congenital syphilis were characterized according to biological and socioeconomic variables and health services use. At the aggregate level, regression tree technique was used for the data analysis, with mean incidence rate (2011-2014) of congenital syphilis as the dependent variable and housing quality, schooling, income, teenage pregnancy, poverty density, access to prenatal care, and skin color as independent variables. The dependent variable was mapped to identify spatial patterns. The SINAN, SINASC, and IBGE databases were used for notifiable diseases, live births, and census data, respectively. A total of 6,274 cases of congenital syphilis were reported, which represents an incidence rate of 17.3 cases/1,000 live births. Cases were distributed in the central, northern peripheral, and western zones of the city, with a high proportion of cases in infants of black mothers with low schooling. There was also a high proportion of pregnant women with late diagnosis of syphilis and inadequate treatment. At the aggregate level, the most relevant variable for explaining the problem was the low proportion of pregnant women with at least 7 prenatal visits. The analysis allowed the identification of marginalized population segments and can help direct public health resources more effectively.

Analysis of the process of malaria transmission elimination with a spatial approach to incidence variation in the Brazilian Amazon, 2016

OBJECTIVE

to identify areas where malaria transmission has been eliminated and levels of malaria incidence variation in the Brazilian Amazon in 2016, and to present an indicator of priorities for control actions.

METHODS

an ecological study was conducted with data from the Malaria Epidemiological Surveillance Information System (Sivep-Malaria); municipalities were classified into three groups - elimination achieved, in the process of elimination and in search of reduction -; a composite indicator was created to stratify municipalities prioritized for control actions.

RESULTS

a total of 337 (41.7%) municipalities were found to have achieved elimination, 398 (49.3%) were in the process of elimination and 73 (9.0%) were in search of reduction; the priority indicator created identified 71 municipalities that accounted for 95% of cases.

CONCLUSION

the vast majority of municipalities have already achieved elimination of malaria transmission or are in the process of eliminating transmission; the priority indicator may contribute to targeting malaria control actions.

[Climate-sensitive diseases in Brazil and the world: systematic reviewEnfermedades sensibles al clima en Brasil y el mundo: revisión sistemática]

OBJECTIVE

To survey the literature regarding climate-sensitive diseases (CSD) and the impacts of climate changes on health.

METHOD

This systematic review was conducted according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA). The Lilacs, SciELO, Scopus, and PubMed databases were searched in July 2017 without temporal restrictions for articles published in in Portuguese, English and Spanish. The following search strategy was used in all databases: (climate) AND (disease) AND (sensitive).

RESULTS

The systematic review included 106 articles, most of which focused on dengue, malaria, and respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. The most commonly studied climate variables were temperature and precipitation. The studies revealed a relationship between the incidence of certain diseases, especially cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, dengue, malaria, and arboviral diseases, and climate conditions in different regions of the world. This relationship was analyzed considering both past data on the incidence of diseases and climate variables and projections regarding the future incidence of diseases according to expected climate variations. A greater number of studies was performed by authors originating from developed countries. The world regions most often studied were China, the United States, Australia, and Brazil.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the increase in the number of published articles on this theme, a greater number of climate and environmental variables must be studied, with expansion of studies to additional regions in the world.

From global action against malaria to local issues: state of the art and perspectives of web platforms dealing with malaria information

Background

Since prehistory to present times and despite a rough combat against it, malaria remains a concern for human beings. While evolutions of science and technology through times allowed for some infectious diseases eradication in the 20th century, malaria resists.

Objectives

This review aims at assessing how Internet and web technologies are used in fighting malaria. Precisely, how do malaria fighting actors profit from these developments, how do they deal with ensuing phenomena, such as the increase of data volume, and did these technologies bring new opportunities for fighting malaria?

Methods

Eleven web platforms linked to spatio-temporal malaria information are reviewed, focusing on data, metadata, web services and categories of users.

Results

Though the web platforms are highly heterogeneous the review reveals that the latest advances in web technologies are underused. Information are rarely updated dynamically, metadata catalogues are absent, web services are more and more used, but rarely standardized, and websites are mainly dedicated to scientific communities, essentially researchers.

Conclusion

Improvement of systems interoperability, through standardization, is an opportunity to be seized in order to allow real time information exchange and online multisource data analysis. To facilitate multidisciplinary/multiscale studies, the web of linked data and the semantic web innovations can be used in order to formalize the different view points of actors involved in the combat against malaria. By doing so, new malaria fighting strategies could take place, to tackle the bottlenecks listed in the United Nation Millennium Development Goals reports, but also specific issues highlighted by the World Health Organization such as malaria elimination in international borders.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12936-018-2270-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

The Territorial Dimension of Sewage Networks: the Case of Recreio dos Bandeirantes, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

The urban suburbs of Brazilian cities have grown without an adequate sanitation infrastructure. Different social groups try to overcome these shortcomings seeking local sanitation alternatives at individual or community levels, contrasting with the universal model of sewage networks. This study was developed in the suburban neighborhood of Recreio dos Bandeirantes, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, in order to analyze the installation process of the sewage system under a territorial approach. Data facilitated the construction of territorial schemes related to conflicts during the implementation of sewage networks in this neighborhood, where middle class groups and favela residents coexist with environmental preservation areas, beaches and commercial activities. This work revealed the need for contextualized sanitation information made available by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) and state sewage collection company, which conceal these conflicts or the representation of residents about their sanitation problems. Overlapping territorial managing functions should be considered as one of the factors responsible for the conflicts identified in the neighborhood. Further studies are suggested as methodological complementation and data update.

The Zika Virus Epidemic in Brazil: From Discovery to Future Implications

The first confirmed case of Zika virus infection in the Americas was reported in Northeast Brazil in May 2015, although phylogenetic studies indicate virus introduction as early as 2013. Zika rapidly spread across Brazil and to more than 50 other countries and territories on the American continent. The Aedesaegypti mosquito is thought to be the principal vector responsible for the widespread transmission of the virus. However, sexual transmission has also been reported. The explosively emerging epidemic has had diverse impacts on population health, coinciding with cases of Guillain-Barré Syndrome and an unexpected epidemic of newborns with microcephaly and other neurological impairments. This led to Brazil declaring a national public health emergency in November 2015, followed by a similar decision by the World Health Organization three months later. While dengue virus serotypes took several decades to spread across Brazil, the Zika virus epidemic diffused within months, extending beyond the area of permanent dengue transmission, which is bound by a climatic barrier in the south and low population density areas in the north. This rapid spread was probably due to a combination of factors, including a massive susceptible population, climatic conditions conducive for the mosquito vector, alternative non-vector transmission, and a highly mobile population. The epidemic has since subsided, but many unanswered questions remain. In this article, we provide an overview of the discovery of Zika virus in Brazil, including its emergence and spread, epidemiological surveillance, vector and non-vector transmission routes, clinical complications, and socio-economic impacts. We discuss gaps in the knowledge and the challenges ahead to anticipate, prevent, and control emerging and re-emerging epidemics of arboviruses in Brazil and worldwide.

The role of Brazilian National Health Information Systems in assessing the impact of Zika virus outbreak

The Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic has become a public health emergency following its association with severe neurological complications. We aim to discuss how the Brazilian National Health Information Systems can help to assess the impact of the ZIKV epidemic on health outcomes potentially related to ZIKV. Health outcomes potentially related to ZIKV infection were described based on a literature review of published studies on ZIKV infection outcomes and on recent protocols developed and published by the Brazilian Ministry of Health for different stages of the life cycle. These outcomes were correlated with the International Classification of Diseases 10th Revision (ICD-10) classification system, as this is the diagnostic classification registered in the Health Information System. A suggested list of 50 clinical manifestations, dispersed into 4 ICD chapters, and their information sources was created to help monitor the ZIKV epidemics and trends. Correlation of these selected ICD-10 codes and the HIS, as well as, a review of the potentialities and limitations of health information systems were performed. The potential of the Health Information System and its underutilization by stakeholders and researchers have been a barrier in diagnosing and reporting ZIKV infection and its complications. The ZIKV outbreak is still a challenge for health practice and the Brazilian Health Information System.

Indicators to measure risk of disaster associated with drought: Implications for the health sector

INTRODUCTION

Brazil has a large semiarid region, which covers part of 9 states, over 20% of the 5565 municipalities in the country and at 22.5 million persons, 12% of the country's population. This region experiences recurrent and extended droughts and is characterized by low economic development, scarcity of natural resources including water, and difficult agricultural and livestock production. Local governments and communities need easily obtainable tools to aid their decision making process in managing risks associated with drought.

METHODS

To inform decision-making at the level of municipalities, we investigated factors contributing to the health risks of drought. We used education and poverty indicators to measure vulnerability, number of drought damage evaluations and historical drought occurrences as indicators of hazard, and access to water as an indicator of exposure, to derive a drought disaster risk index.

RESULTS

Indicators such as access to piped water, illiteracy and poverty show marked differences in most states and, in nearly all states, the living conditions of communities in the semiarid region are worse than in the rest of each state. There are municipalities at high drought disaster risk in every state and there are a larger number of municipalities at higher risks from the center to the north of the semiarid region.

CONCLUSIONS

Understanding local hazards, exposures and vulnerabilities provides the means to understand local communities' risks and develop interventions to reduce them. In addition, communities in these regions need to be empowered to add their traditional knowledge to scientific tools, and to identify the actions most relevant to their needs and realities.

Spatial-temporal diffusion of dengue in the municipality of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 2000-2013

The city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, shows high potential receptiveness to the introduction, dissemination, and persistence of dengue transmission. The pattern of territorial occupation in the municipality produced a heterogeneous and diverse mosaic, with differential vector distribution between and within neighborhoods, producing distinct epidemics on this scale of observation. The study seeks to identify these epidemics and the pattern of spatial and temporal diffusion of dengue transmission. A model was used for the identification of epidemics, considering the epidemic peak years and months, spatial distribution, and permanence of epidemics from January 2000 to December 2013. A total of 495 epidemic peaks were counted, and the time scale showed the highest occurrence in the months of March, April, and February, respectively. Some neighborhoods appear to present persistent dengue incidence, and the pattern of diffusion allows identifying key trajectories and timely months for intervention.

Increased Hospitalizations for Neuropathies as Indicators of Zika Virus Infection, according to Health Information System Data, Brazil

Neurologic manifestations of Zika infection must be adequately recognized and treated; our study methods can be used for monitoring and warning systems.

Evidence is increasing that Zika virus can cause extensive damage to the central nervous system, affecting both fetuses and adults. We sought to identify traces of possible clinical manifestations of nervous system diseases among the registers of hospital admissions recorded in the Brazilian Unified Health System. Time series of several diagnoses from the International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision, were analyzed by using control diagrams, during January 2008–February 2016. Beginning in mid-2014, we observed an unprecedented and significant rise in the hospitalization rate for congenital malformations of the nervous system, Guillain-Barré syndrome, encephalitis, myelitis, and encephalomyelitis. These conditions are compatible with viral infection and inflammation-associated manifestations and may have been due to the entrance of Zika virus into Brazil. These findings show the necessity of adequately diagnosing and treating suspected cases of Zika virus infection and also that health surveillance systems can be improved by using routine data.

An observatory to gather and disseminate information on the health-related effects of environmental and climate change

This report sought to critically examine proposals, potentials, and challenges of environmental health observatories with an emphasis on climate change processes. A critical review of existing environmental health observatories was performed, examining their purposes, potential audiences, and technological platforms. The implementation of the Brazilian Climate and Health Observatory (C&HO) is described, and two stages are defined: (i) the requirement analysis and negotiation stage that identified the national and regional institutional players and their roles as data producers/users; and (ii) thematic health-related workshops that reviewed water-related diseases, vector-borne diseases, extreme climate events, and health problems derived from forest fires. The C&HO is an example of making information on climate and health available through an Internet site where data from different origins can be accessed on a common platform. Complex queries are made by users and can be executed over multiple sites, geographically distributed, with all technical details hidden from the end user. At this stage of the C&HO prototype, alongside the queries, users can also produce semi-qualitative graphs and maps. A multi-scale approach was developed using the platform by setting up sentinel sites. Building a successful observatory is a participatory process that involves choosing indicators, data sources, information technology, and languages to best reach different audiences, such as researchers, citizens, public health professionals, and decisionmakers.

Disaggregating health inequalities within Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 2002-2010, by applying an urban health inequality index

An urban health index (UHI) was used to quantify health inequalities within Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, for the years 2002-2010. Eight main health indicators were generated at the ward level using mortality data. The indicators were combined to form the index. The distribution of the rank ordered UHI-values provides information on inequality among wards, using the ratio of the extremes and the gradient of the middle values. Over the decade the ratio of extremes in 2010 declined relative to 2002 (1.57 vs. 1.32) as did the slope of the middle values (0.23 vs. 0.16). A spatial division between the affluent south and the deprived north and east is still visible. The UHI correlated on an ecological ward-level with socioeconomic and urban environment indicators like square meter price of apartments (0.54, p < 0.01), low education of mother (-0.61, p < 0.01), low income (-0.62, p < 0.01) and proportion of black ethnicity (-0.55, p < 0.01). The results suggest that population health and equity have improved in Rio de Janeiro in the last decade though some familiar patterns of spatial inequality remain.

Measuring the invisible: Analysis of the Sustainable Development Goals in relation to populations exposed to drought

Brazil, together with all the member countries of the United Nations, is in a process of adoption of a group of Sustainable Development Goals, including targets and indicators. This article considers the implications of these goals and their proposed targets, for the Semi-Arid region of Brazil. This region has recurring droughts which may worsen with climate change, further weakening the situation of access of water for human consumption in sufficient quantity and quality, and as a result, the health conditions of the exposed populations. This study identifies the relationship between drought and health, in an effort to measure progress in this region (1,135 municipalities), comparing relevant indicators with the other 4,430 municipalities in Brazil, based on census data from 1991, 2000 and 2010. Important inequalities between the municipalities of this region and the municipalities of the rest of Brazil are identified, and discussed in the context of what is necessary for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals in the Semi-arid Region, principally in relation to the measures for adaptation to achieve universal and equitable access to drinking water.

Surtos de diarreia na região Nordeste do Brasil em 2013, segundo a mídia e sistemas de informação de saúde – Vigilância de situações climáticas de risco e emergências em saúde

Resumo Este trabalho tem como objetivo analisar as informações sobre surtos de diarreia no Nordeste do Brasil ocorridos no ano de 2013, veiculadas pela mídia eletrônica e pelos dados obtidos por sistemas de informação de saúde. Foram identificadas 33 notícias com cunho informativo sobre os surtos, algumas contendo menções sobre as causas e os fatores agravantes dos surtos de diarreia. A análise da distribuição espacial e temporal de notícias, internações e óbitos revelou que mais de 100 mil pessoas foram acometidas e, de acordo com as notícias analisadas, os estados mais atingidos foram Alagoas e Pernambuco, com maior extensão nos meses de maio a julho. O uso de fontes alternativas de água, como cacimbas, poços, caminhões-pipa e reservatórios domésticos foram apontados como as causas mais imediatas destes surtos. No entanto, outros fatores subjacentes como a precariedade estrutural dos sistemas de abastecimento de água na região do semiárido, as condições excepcionais de seca, considerada a pior dos últimos 60 anos, bem como a capacidade do setor saúde para atender um grande volume de casos, devem ser considerados para recuperar o contexto em que estes surtos são produzidos.

Evaluating probabilistic dengue risk forecasts from a prototype early warning system for Brazil

Recently, a prototype dengue early warning system was developed to produce probabilistic forecasts of dengue risk three months ahead of the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. Here, we evaluate the categorical dengue forecasts across all microregions in Brazil, using dengue cases reported in June 2014 to validate the model. We also compare the forecast model framework to a null model, based on seasonal averages of previously observed dengue incidence. When considering the ability of the two models to predict high dengue risk across Brazil, the forecast model produced more hits and fewer missed events than the null model, with a hit rate of 57% for the forecast model compared to 33% for the null model. This early warning model framework may be useful to public health services, not only ahead of mass gatherings, but also before the peak dengue season each year, to control potentially explosive dengue epidemics.

Epidemic and Endemic Malaria Transmission Related to Fish Farming Ponds in the Amazon Frontier

Fish farming in the Amazon has been stimulated as a solution to increase economic development. However, poorly managed fish ponds have been sometimes associated with the presence of Anopheles spp. and consequently, with malaria transmission. In this study, we analyzed the spatial and temporal dynamics of malaria in the state of Acre (and more closely within a single county) to investigate the potential links between aquaculture and malaria transmission in this region. At the state level, we classified the 22 counties into three malaria endemicity patterns, based on the correlation between notification time series. Furthermore, the study period (2003-2013) was divided into two phases (epidemic and post-epidemic). Higher fish pond construction coincided both spatially and temporally with increased rate of malaria notification. Within one malaria endemic county, we investigated the relationship between the geolocation of malaria cases (2011-2012) and their distance to fish ponds. Entomological surveys carried out in these ponds provided measurements of anopheline abundance that were significantly associated with the abundance of malaria cases within 100 m of the ponds (P < 0.005; r = 0.39). These results taken together suggest that fish farming contributes to the maintenance of high transmission levels of malaria in this region.

[Homicides and territorial struggles in Rio de Janeiro favelas]

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the risk of homicide in Rio de Janeiro’s favelas, taking into account the territorial disputes taking place in the city.

METHODS

The study is based on data on mortality from homicide in the city of Rio de Janeiro between 2006 and 2009. Risks in favelas and in surrounding areas were evaluated, as was the domination of armed groups and drug dealing. Geographic and ethnographic concepts and methods were employed, using participant observation, interviews and analysis of secondary data on health.

RESULTS

Within the favelas, mortality rates from homicide were equivalent to, or lower than, the rest of the city, although they were considerably higher in areas surrounding the favelas, especially in areas where there was conflict between armed rival gangs.

CONCLUSIONS

The presence of trafficking crews and turf war in strategic areas of the city increases homicide rates and promotes the “ecology of danger” in these areas.

Geographical scale effects on the analysis of leptospirosis determinants

Leptospirosis displays a great diversity of routes of exposure, reservoirs, etiologic agents, and clinical symptoms. It occurs almost worldwide but its pattern of transmission varies depending where it happens. Climate change may increase the number of cases, especially in developing countries, like Brazil. Spatial analysis studies of leptospirosis have highlighted the importance of socioeconomic and environmental context. Hence, the choice of the geographical scale and unit of analysis used in the studies is pivotal, because it restricts the indicators available for the analysis and may bias the results. In this study, we evaluated which environmental and socioeconomic factors, typically used to characterize the risks of leptospirosis transmission, are more relevant at different geographical scales (i.e., regional, municipal, and local). Geographic Information Systems were used for data analysis. Correlations between leptospirosis incidence and several socioeconomic and environmental indicators were calculated at different geographical scales. At the regional scale, the strongest correlations were observed between leptospirosis incidence and the amount of people living in slums, or the percent of the area densely urbanized. At the municipal scale, there were no significant correlations. At the local level, the percent of the area prone to flooding best correlated with leptospirosis incidence.

Desastres naturais e saúde: uma análise da situação do Brasil

Os desastres naturais ainda são pouco pesquisados e compreendidos no âmbito da Saúde Coletiva no país, com impactos do curto ao longo prazos. O objetivo deste artigo é, a partir de dados sobre desastres registrados no país, analisar a inter-relação entre esses eventos e seus impactos sobre a saúde. A metodologia envolveu a sistematização de dados e informações contidos no Atlas Brasileiro dos Desastres Naturais 1991-2010 e diretamente na Secretária Nacional de Defesa Civil (SNDC). Os desastres foram organizados em quatro categorias de eventos (meteorológicos; hidrológicos; climatológicos; geofísicos/geológicos) e, para cada uma das mesmas, foram explorados os dados de afetados, morbidade, mortalidade e expostos, demonstrando diferentes tipos de impactos. Três categorias de desastres se destacaram: os eventos hidrológicos apresentaram maiores percentuais de mortalidade, morbidade e expostos; os climatológicos maiores percentuais de ocorrências e afetados; os geofísicos/geológicos maior média de expostos e óbitos por evento. Ao final propõe-se uma participação mais ativa do setor saúde na agenda política global pós-2015, particularmente as relacionadas ao desenvolvimento sustentável, mudanças climáticas e redução de riscos de desastres.

Organização, disponibilização e possibilidades de análise de dados sobre desastres de origem climática e seus impactos sobre a saúde no Brasil

A ocorrência de desastres muitas vezes é associada a processos naturais imprevisíveis. No entanto, a análise de grandes bases de dados permite mostrar tendências sazonais e de longo prazo, bem como padrões e áreas onde se concentram riscos. Neste trabalho é descrito o processo de aquisição e organização de dados sobre desastres, coletados pelos órgãos de defesa civil, e disponibilizados pelo Observatório Nacional de Clima e Saúde. As análises preliminares mostram a concentração de eventos desastres causados por chuvas intensas ao longo da costa brasileira, principalmente durante o verão. As secas apresentam maior duração e extensão, atingindo grande parte do sul e nordeste do país. Estes dados podem ser usados para analisar e monitorar o impacto de eventos climáticos extremos sobre a saúde, bem como seus determinantes de vulnerabilidade e clima.