Cross-sectional surveillance study of long COVID in Toyonaka city, Osaka prefecture, Japan

BACKGROUND

As the COVID-19 epidemic continues, concerns about long-term health impacts, specifically long COVID, persist. While the prevalence and symptomatology of long COVID have been explored in various global contexts, large-scale cohort studies in Japan remain limited, especially after the advent of the Omicron variant.

METHODS

In this observational study, 4,047 residents with a history of COVID-19 living in Toyonaka City, Osaka Prefecture, were assessed for long COVID symptoms using the VOICE mobile application and a paper survey. Respondents provided demographic and health information, as well as information regarding COVID-19 infection and subsequent symptoms. A Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to estimate the multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios and 95 % confidence intervals for overall morbidity of long COVID symptoms.

RESULTS

The survey found that 5.2 % of participants reported the persistence of one or more symptoms at 30 days post-onset. Fatigue was the most commonly reported symptom (1.75 %), followed by hair loss (1.41 %), and cough (1.28 %). Factors associated with an increased risk of experiencing long COVID symptoms included BMI, severe illness during the acute phase, and infection with certain COVID-19 variant strains, including Alpha, Delta, and Omicron. However, the incidence rate of long COVID appears to be decreasing with the dominance of the Omicron variant.

CONCLUSIONS

This large-scale study from Toyonaka City suggests a 5.2 % prevalence rate for persistent COVID-19 symptoms 4 weeks post-infection, potentially indicating a lower prevalence of long COVID in Japanese populations after the rise of the Omicron variant.

Oral mouthwashes for asymptomatic to mildly symptomatic adults with COVID-19 and salivary viral load: a randomized, placebo-controlled, open-label clinical trial

BACKGROUND

Recent randomized clinical trials suggest that the effect of using cetylpyridinium chloride (CPC) mouthwashes on the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) viral load in COVID-19 patients has been inconsistent. Additionally, no clinical study has investigated the effectiveness of on-demand aqueous chlorine dioxide mouthwash against COVID-19.

METHODS

We performed a randomized, placebo-controlled, open-label clinical trial to assess for any effects of using mouthwash on the salivary SARS-CoV-2 viral load among asymptomatic to mildly symptomatic adult COVID-19-positive patients. Patients were randomized to receive either 20 mL of 0.05% CPC, 10 mL of 0.01% on-demand aqueous chlorine dioxide, or 20 mL of placebo mouthwash (purified water) in a 1:1:1 ratio. The primary endpoint was the cycle threshold (Ct) values employed for SARS-CoV-2 salivary viral load estimation. We used linear mixed-effects models to assess for any effect of the mouthwashes on SARS-CoV-2 salivary viral load.

RESULTS

Of a total of 96 eligible participants enrolled from November 7, 2022, to January 19, 2023, 90 were accepted for the primary analysis. The use of 0.05% CPC mouthwash was not shown to be superior to placebo in change from baseline salivary Ct value at 30 min (difference vs. placebo, 0.640; 95% confidence interval [CI], -1.425 to 2.706; P = 0.543); 2 h (difference vs. placebo, 1.158; 95% CI, -0.797 to 3.112; P = 0.246); 4 h (difference vs. placebo, 1.283; 95% CI, -0.719 to 3.285; P = 0.209); 10 h (difference vs. placebo, 0.304; 95% CI, -1.777 to 2.385; P = 0.775); or 24 h (difference vs. placebo, 0.782; 95% CI, -1.195 to 2.759; P = 0.438). The use of 0.01% on-demand aqueous chlorine dioxide mouthwash was also not shown to be superior to placebo in change from baseline salivary Ct value at 30 min (difference vs. placebo, 0.905; 95% CI, -1.079 to 2.888; P = 0.371); 2 h (difference vs. placebo, 0.709; 95% CI, -1.275 to 2.693; P = 0.483); 4 h (difference vs. placebo, 0.220; 95% CI, -1.787 to 2.226; P = 0.830); 10 h (difference vs. placebo, 0.198; 95% CI, -1.901 to 2.296; P = 0.854); or 24 h (difference vs. placebo, 0.784; 95% CI, -1.236 to 2.804; P = 0.447).

CONCLUSIONS

In asymptomatic to mildly symptomatic adults with COVID-19, compared to placebo, the use of 0.05% CPC and 0.01% on-demand aqueous chlorine dioxide mouthwash did not lead to a significant reduction in SARS-CoV-2 salivary viral load. Future studies of the efficacy of CPC and on-demand aqueous chlorine dioxide mouthwash on the viral viability of SARS-CoV-2 should be conducted using different specimen types and in multiple populations and settings.

Using novel micropore technology combined with artificial intelligence to differentiate Staphylococcus aureus and Staphylococcus epidermidis

Methods for identifying bacterial pathogens are broadly categorised into conventional culture-based microbiology, nucleic acid-based tests, and mass spectrometry. The conventional method requires several days to isolate and identify bacteria. Nucleic acid-based tests and mass spectrometry are relatively rapid and reliable, but they require trained technicians. Moreover, mass spectrometry requires expensive equipment. The development of a novel, inexpensive, and simple technique for identifying bacterial pathogens is needed. Through combining micropore technology and assembly machine learning, we developed a novel classifier whose receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve showed an area under the ROC curve of 0.94, which rapidly differentiated between Staphylococcus aureus and Staphylococcus epidermidis in this proof-of-concept study. Morphologically similar bacteria belonging to an identical genus can be distinguished using our method, which requires no specific training, and may facilitate the diagnosis and treatment of patients with bacterial infections in remote areas and in developing countries.

The ability of biomarkers to assess the severity of atopic dermatitis

Background

To develop precision medicine for atopic dermatitis (AD), it is critical to establish relevant biomarkers. However, the characteristics of various biomarkers have not been fully understood. We previously carried out the Biomarkers to Predict Clinical Improvement of AD in Patients Treated with Dupilumab (B-PAD) study, a comprehensive nationwide study in Japan, to explore biomarkers for AD.

Objective

The aim of this study is to find biomarkers associated with objective and subjective clinical findings in patients with moderate-to-severe AD based on the B-PAD study and to identify biomarkers sensitive enough to assess the severity of AD.

Methods

We performed the B-PAD study as a consortium composed of 19 medical facilities in Japan, enrolling 110 patients with moderate-to-severe AD. We evaluated the Eczema Area and Severity Index (EASI) for objective assessment as well as the Patient-Oriented Eczema Measure (POEM) and a numeric rating scale for pruritus (pruritis-NRS) for subjective assessment, measuring 19 biomarkers at baseline.

Results

We found that 12, 6, and 7 biomarkers showed significant and positive associations with the EASI, POEM, and pruritis-NRS, respectively. Most of the biomarkers associated with either the POEM or the pruritis-NRS were included among the biomarkers associated with EASI. Of the biomarkers examined, CCL26/eotaxin-3 and SCCA2 were the most capable of assessing severity for EASI, as shown by the 2 kinds of receiver operating characteristic analyses, respectively, whereas lactate dehydrogenase was the best for both the POEM and pruritis-NRS, again using the 2 analyses.

Conclusion

We found biomarkers associated with the EASI, POEM, and pruritis-NRS, respectively, based on the B-PAD study. Moreover, we identified CCL26/eotaxin-3 and/or SCCA2 as the biomarkers having the greatest ability to assess severity in the EASI; lactate dehydrogenase did the same for the POEM and pruritis-NRS. These findings will be useful in treating patients with moderate-to-severe AD.

Protocol for a Randomized, Open-Label Clinical Trial on the Effect of Mouthwash on Salivary SARS-CoV-2 Load

Mouthwashes containing cetylpyridinium chloride (CPC) or on-demand aqueous chlorine dioxide (ACD) have potential to reduce the salivary severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) load in individuals with SARS-CoV-2 infection. This study will evaluate the effect of CPC and on-demand ACD mouthwashes on salivary SARS-CoV-2 levels in individuals with acute asymptomatic or mild SARS-CoV-2 infection (COVID-19) staying in a residential recuperation facility in Osaka, Japan. This randomized, open-label clinical trial will include three equal-sized groups (CPC mouthwash, on-demand ACD mouthwash, and placebo), with 30 participants per group. A stratified replacement block method will be used to ensure balanced allocation based on symptom presence and days since symptom onset. Participants will use mouthwash at set times for 7 days or until the end of recuperation. Saliva samples will be collected at multiple time points and tested for SARS-CoV-2 using quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction. The primary outcome will be changes in salivary SARS-CoV-2 viral load 2 h after the first mouthwash use compared with the pre-mouthwash level. Secondary outcomes will include changes in salivary viral load and clinical parameters at different time points. This study was registered with the Japan Registry of Clinical Trials on 18 October 2022 (jRCTs051220107).

Analysis of Concentrated COVID-19 Outbreaks in Elderly Facilities in Suita City, Osaka Prefecture, Japan

There are several types of facilities for elderly individuals in Japan. Infection control efforts, such as care provision and medical care access, differ according to the type of facility. Elderly individuals at these facilities who were infected with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) experienced severe illness and mortality. This study aimed to determine the characteristics of concentrated COVID-19 outbreaks that occurred in nursing homes and care facilities in Suita City. During this study, twenty-five elderly facilities in Suita City with a capacity of 40 or more individuals where an outbreak occurred during the sixth or seventh wave of infection were included. We investigated whether there was a difference in the COVID-19 incidence and the percentage of positive cases according to the type of facility. We also investigated the relationship between the facility capacity and positive case rate and that between the number of positive cases and outbreak duration. The incidence rate of COVID-19 was significantly different according to the facility type (p < 0.001). No association was found between the facility capacity and positive case rate. The outbreak duration increased as the number of positive cases increased (p = 0.004).

National trends in the outcomes of subarachnoid haemorrhage and the prognostic influence of stroke centre capability in Japan: retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To examine the national, 6-year trends in in-hospital clinical outcomes of patients with subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH) who underwent clipping or coiling and the prognostic influence of temporal trends in the Comprehensive Stroke Center (CSC) capabilities on patient outcomes in Japan.

DESIGN

Retrospective study.

SETTING

Six hundred and thirty-one primary care institutions in Japan.

PARTICIPANTS

Forty-five thousand and eleven patients with SAH who were urgently hospitalised, identified using the J-ASPECT Diagnosis Procedure Combination database.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Annual number of patients with SAH who remained untreated, or who received clipping or coiling, in-hospital mortality and poor functional outcomes (modified Rankin Scale: 3-6) at discharge. Each CSC was assessed using a validated scoring system (CSC score: 1-25 points).

RESULTS

In the overall cohort, in-hospital mortality decreased (year for trend, OR (95% CI): 0.97 (0.96 to 0.99)), while the proportion of poor functional outcomes remained unchanged (1.00 (0.98 to 1.02)). The proportion of patients who underwent clipping gradually decreased from 46.6% to 38.5%, while that of those who received coiling and those left untreated gradually increased from 16.9% to 22.6% and 35.4% to 38%, respectively. In-hospital mortality of coiled (0.94 (0.89 to 0.98)) and untreated (0.93 (0.90 to 0.96)) patients decreased, whereas that of clipped patients remained stable. CSC score improvement was associated with increased use of coiling (per 1-point increase, 1.14 (1.08 to 1.20)) but not with short-term patient outcomes regardless of treatment modality.

CONCLUSIONS

The 6-year trends indicated lower in-hospital mortality for patients with SAH (attributable to better outcomes), increased use of coiling and multidisciplinary care for untreated patients. Further increasing CSC capabilities may improve overall outcomes, mainly by increasing the use of coiling. Additional studies are necessary to determine the effect of confounders such as aneurysm complexity on outcomes of clipped patients in the modern endovascular era.

Early vascular responses to abluminal biodegradable polymer-coated versus circumferential durable polymer-coated newer-generation drug-eluting stents in humans: a pathological study

BACKGROUND

Recent clinical studies are testing strategies for short (1-3 months) dual antiplatelet therapy following newer-generation drug-eluting stent (DES) placement. However, detailed biological responses to newer-generation DES remain unknown in humans.

AIMS

We sought to evaluate early pathologic responses to abluminal biodegradable polymer-coated (BP-) DES compared with circumferential durable polymer-coated (DP-) DES in human autopsy cases.

METHODS

The study included 38 coronary lesions with newer-generation DES implanted for <90 days (DP-DES=24, BP-DES=14) in 26 autopsy cases. The degree of strut coverage was defined as follows: grade 0 (bare), grade 1 (with fibrin or tissues/cells without endothelium), grade 2 (with single-layered endothelium), and grade 3 (with endothelium and underlying smooth muscle cell layers).

RESULTS

 The duration following implantation was similar in DP- and BP-DES (median=20 vs 17 days). A total of 2,022 struts (DP-DES=1,297, BP-DES=725) were pathologically analysed. Focal grade 2 coverage was observed as early as 5 days after the implantation in both stents. The multilevel mixed-effects ordered logistic regression model demonstrated that BP-DES exhibited greater strut coverage compared with DP-DES (odds ratio [OR]: 3.64, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.37-9.67; p=0.009), which remained significant after adjustment for the duration following implantation and underlying tissue characteristics (OR: 2.74, 95% CI: 1.10-6.80; p=0.030). The predictive probability of grade 2 and 3 coverage was comparably limited at 30 days (DP-DES=17.1%, BP-DES=28.7%) and increased at 90 days (DP-DES=76.5%, BP-DES=86.6%). Both stents showed low inflammation and a similar degree of fibrin deposition.

CONCLUSIONS

Single-layered endothelial coverage begins in the days after newer-generation DES placement, and BP-DES potentially exhibit faster strut coverage with smooth muscle cell infiltration than DP-DES in humans. Nevertheless, vessel healing remains suboptimal in both stents at 30 days.

Early vascular responses to abluminal biodegradable polymer-coated versus circumferential durable polymer-coated newer-generation drug-eluting stents in humans: a pathologic study

Background

Recent clinical trials are testing strategies for short (1–3 months) dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) following newer-generation drug-eluting stent (DES) placement. However, the safety of short DAPT regimens is not supported by biological evidence in humans.

Purpose

We sought to evaluate early pathologic responses to newer-generation DES by comparing abluminal biodegradable polymer-coated DES (BP-DES) with circumferential durable polymer-coated DES (DP-DES) in human autopsy cases.

Methods

The study included a total of 37 coronary lesions with thin strut newer-generation DES (DP-DES=23 [XIENCE=18, Resolute Integrity=5] and BP-DES=14 [SYNERGY=9, Ultimaster=5]) with duration of implantation &lt;90 days in 25 autopsy cases. The process of stent healing was precisely evaluated for every single strut in association with underlying tissue characteristics. The degree of strut coverage was defined as follows: grade 0 (bare struts), grade 1 (struts covered with thrombus, fibrin, or other tissues or cells without endothelium), grade 2 (struts covered with single-layered endothelium without underlying smooth muscle cell layers), and grade 3 (struts covered with endothelium and underlying smooth muscle cell layers) (Figure 1).

Results

Duration of implantation was similar in lesions with DP-DES and those with BP-DES (median=20 vs. 17 days). A total of 1986 struts (DP-DES=1261, BP-DES=725) were pathologically analyzed. Focal grade 2 coverage was observed as early as 5 days after the implantation in both stents. Multilevel mixed-effects ordered logistic regression model demonstrated that BP-DES exhibited greater strut coverage compared with DP-DES (odds ratio; 3.50, 95% CI; 1.31–9.41, P=0.013), which remained significant after adjustment for duration of implantation and underlying tissue characteristics (odds ratio; 2.64, 95% CI; 1.04–6.68, P=0.040). The time course of vessel healing assessed as predictive probability of strut coverage (grade 0–3) stratified by duration of implantation is shown in Figure 2. Predictive probability of grade 2 and 3 coverage was comparably limited at 30 days (DP-DES=17.7% vs. BP-DES=29.0%) and increased at 90 days (DP-DES=76.1% vs. BP-DES=85.9%). Both stents showed few inflammation and similar degree of fibrin deposition.

Conclusions

The current first pathologic study on early biological responses to newer-generation DES in humans demonstrated that single-layered endothelial coverage begins in days following the stent placement, and abluminal BP-DES potentially exhibit faster strut coverage with smooth muscle cell infiltration than circumferential DP-DES. Nevertheless, vessel healing remains suboptimal at 30 days in both DP- and BP-DES, which progresses with time to become substantial at 90 days. Our results suggest that very short duration of DAPT for 1 month should be applied with caution, taking into account the trade-off between bleeding and thrombotic risks.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C) from the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science

Accuracy of wristwatch-type photoplethysmography in detecting atrial fibrillation in daily life. Eur Heart J Digit Health 2022;3:455-464. [PMID: 36712156 PMCID: PMC9707983 DOI: 10.1093/ehjdh/ztac041] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0]

Aims

Detection of asymptomatic paroxysmal atrial fibrillation is challenging. Smartphone- or smartwatch-based photoplethysmography is efficient at detecting irregular rhythms using pulse waves but is too complex for older patients. We aimed to evaluate the detection accuracy of atrial fibrillation by a wristwatch-type continuous pulse wave monitor (PWM) in daily life.

Methods and results

Patients at high risk of atrial fibrillation but with no history of atrial fibrillation (n = 163; mean CHADS₂ score, 1.9) and patients with known atrial fibrillation (n = 123, including 34 with persistent atrial fibrillation) underwent PWM and telemetry electrocardiogram recording for 3 days. Risk of atrial fibrillation was judged using the 'Kyorin Atrial Fibrillation Risk Score', a scoring system based on previously reported atrial fibrillation risk scoring systems. The PWM assessed the presence of atrial fibrillation at 30 min intervals, and the results were compared with the telemetry electrocardiogram findings. The PWMs accurately diagnosed two patients with paroxysmal atrial fibrillation in the high-risk group. The PWMs accurately diagnosed 48 of the 55 patients with atrial fibrillation in the known-atrial fibrillation group. The PWM accuracy in detecting patients with atrial fibrillation was as follows: sensitivity, 98.0%; specificity, 90.6%; positive predictive value, 69.4%; negative predictive value, 99.5%. The respective values for intervals with atrial fibrillation were 86.9%, 98.8%, 89.6%, and 98.5%.

Conclusion

The wristwatch-type PWM has shown feasibility in detecting atrial fibrillation in daily life and showed the possibility of being used as a screening tool.

Endothelial Natriuretic Peptide Receptor 1 Play Crucial Role for Acute and Chronic Blood Pressure Regulation by Atrial Natriuretic Peptide

BACKGROUND

ANP (atrial natriuretic peptide), acting through NPR1 (natriuretic peptide receptor 1), provokes hypotension. Such hypotension is thought to be due to ANP inducing vasodilation via NPR1 in the vasculature; however, the underlying mechanism remains unclear. Here, we investigated the mechanisms of acute and chronic blood pressure regulation by ANP.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Immunohistochemical analysis of rat tissues revealed that NPR1 was abundantly expressed in endothelial cells and smooth muscle cells of small arteries and arterioles. Intravenous infusion of ANP significantly lowered systolic blood pressure in wild-type mice. ANP also significantly lowered systolic blood pressure in smooth muscle cell-specific Npr1-knockout mice but not in endothelial cell-specific Npr1-knockout mice. Moreover, ANP significantly lowered systolic blood pressure in Nos3-knockout mice. In human umbilical vein endothelial cells, treatment with ANP did not influence nitric oxide production or intracellular Ca²⁺ concentration, but it did hyperpolarize the cells. ANP-induced hyperpolarization of human umbilical vein endothelial cells was inhibited by several potassium channel blockers and was also abolished under knockdown of RGS2 (regulator of G-protein signaling 2), an GTPase activating protein in G-protein α-subunit. ANP increased Rgs2 mRNA expression in human umbilical vein endothelial cells but failed to lower systolic blood pressure in Rgs2-knockout mice. Endothelial cell-specific Npr1-overexpressing mice exhibited lower blood pressure than did wild-type mice independent of RGS2, and showed dilation of arterial vessels on synchrotron radiation microangiography.

CONCLUSIONS

Together, these results indicate that vascular endothelial NPR1 plays a crucial role in ANP-mediated blood pressure regulation, presumably by a mechanism that is RGS2-dependent in the acute phase and RGS2-independent in the chronic phase.

Impact of Seizure Recurrence on 1-Year Functional Outcome and Mortality in Patients With Poststroke Epilepsy

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

The functional outcome and mortality of post-stroke epilepsy (PSE) patients have not been assessed in a prospective study. Previous reports have suggested that PSE patients may suffer from prolonged functional deterioration following a seizure. In the current study, we prospectively investigated the functional outcome and mortality of PSE patients and analyzed the impact of seizure recurrence on the outcomes.

METHODS

This is part of the Prognosis of Post-Stroke Epilepsy (PROPOSE) study, a multicenter, prospective observational cohort study, where 392 PSE patients (at least one unprovoked seizure more than 7 days after the onset of the last symptomatic stroke) were followed for at least 1 year at eight hospitals in Japan. The current study included only PSE patients with a first-ever seizure and assessed their functional decline and mortality at 1 year. Functional decline was defined as an increase in modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score at 1 year compared to baseline, excluding death. The associations between seizure recurrence and the outcomes were analyzed statistically.

RESULTS

A total of 211 patients (median age of 75 years; median mRS score of 3) were identified. At 1 year, 50 patients (23.7%) experienced seizure recurrence. Regarding outcomes, 25 patients (11.8%) demonstrated functional decline, and 20 (9.5%) had died. Most patients died of pneumonia or cardiac disease (seven patients each), and no known causes of death were directly related to recurrent seizures. Seizure recurrence was significantly associated with functional decline (odds ratio 2.96 [95% CI 1.25-7.03], P=0.01), even after adjusting for potential confounders (adjusted odds ratio 3.26 [95% CI 1.27-8.36], P=0.01), but not with mortality (odds ratio 0.79 [95% CI 0.18-2.61], P=0.79). Moreover, there was a significant trend where patients with more recurrent seizures were more likely to have functional decline (8.7%, 20.6%, and 28.6% in none, 1, and 2 or more recurrent seizures, respectively; P=0.006).

DISCUSSION

One-year functional outcome and mortality of PSE patients were poor. Seizure recurrence was significantly associated with functional outcome, but not with mortality. Further studies are needed to ascertain whether early and adequate anti-seizure treatment can prevent the functional deterioration of PSE patients.

Influence of hospital capabilities and prehospital time on outcomes of thrombectomy for stroke in Japan from 2013 to 2016

To determine whether increasing thrombectomy-capable hospitals with moderate comprehensive stroke center (CSC) capabilities is a valid alternative to centralization of those with high CSC capabilities. This retrospective, nationwide, observational study used data from the J-ASPECT database linked to national emergency medical service (EMS) records, captured during 2013–2016. We compared the influence of mechanical thrombectomy (MT) use, the CSC score, and the total EMS response time on the modified Rankin Scale score at discharge among patients with acute ischemic stroke transported by ambulance, in phases I (2013–2014, 1461 patients) and II (2015–2016, 3259 patients). We used ordinal logistic regression analyses to analyze outcomes. From phase I to II, MTs increased from 2.7 to 5.5%, and full-time endovascular physicians per hospital decreased. The CSC score and EMS response time remained unchanged. In phase I, higher CSC scores were associated with better outcomes (1-point increase, odds ratio [95% confidence interval]: 0.951 [0.915–0.989]) and longer EMS response time was associated with worse outcomes (1-min increase, 1.007 [1.001–1.013]). In phase II, neither influenced the outcomes. During the transitional shortage of thrombectomy-capable hospitals, increasing hospitals with moderate CSC scores may increase nationwide access to MT, improving outcomes.

Reduced mortality during the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan, 2020: a two-stage interrupted time-series design

Background

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to be a major global health burden. This study aims to estimate the all-cause excess mortality occurring in the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan, 2020, by sex and age group.

Methods

Daily time series of mortality for the period January 2015–December 2020 in all 47 prefectures of Japan were obtained from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan. A two-stage interrupted time-series design was used to calculate excess mortality. In the first stage, we estimated excess mortality by prefecture using quasi-Poisson regression models in combination with distributed lag non-linear models, adjusting for seasonal and long-term variations, weather conditions and influenza activity. In the second stage, we used a random-effects multivariate meta-analysis to synthesize prefecture-specific estimates at the nationwide level.

Results

In 2020, we estimated an all-cause excess mortality of −20 982 deaths [95% empirical confidence intervals (eCI): −38 367 to −5472] in Japan, which corresponded to a percentage excess of −1.7% (95% eCI: −3.1 to −0.5) relative to the expected value. Reduced deaths were observed for both sexes and in all age groups except those aged <60 and 70–79 years.

Conclusions

All-cause mortality during the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan in 2020 was decreased compared with a historical baseline. Further evaluation of cause-specific excess mortality is warranted.

Antiseizure medications for post-stroke epilepsy: A real-world prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

The management of post-stroke epilepsy (PSE) should ideally include prevention of both seizure and adverse effects; however, an optimal antiseizure medications (ASM) regimen has yet been established. The purpose of this study is to assess seizure recurrence, retention, and tolerability of older-generation and newer-generation ASM for PSE.

METHODS

This prospective multicenter cohort study (PROgnosis of Post-Stroke Epilepsy [PROPOSE] study) was conducted from November 2014 to September 2019 at eight hospitals. A total of 372 patients admitted and treated with ASM at discharge were recruited. Due to the non-interventional nature of the study, ASM regimen was not adjusted and followed standard hospital practices. The primary outcome was seizure recurrence in patients receiving older-generation and newer-generation ASM. The secondary outcomes were the retention and tolerability of ASM regimens.

RESULTS

Of the 372 PSE patients with ASM at discharge (median [IQR] age, 73 [64-81] years; 139 women [37.4%]), 36 were treated with older-generation, 286 with newer-generation, and 50 with mixed-generation ASM. In older- and newer-generation ASM groups (n = 322), 98 patients (30.4%) had recurrent seizures and 91 patients (28.3%) switched ASM regimen during the follow-up (371 [347-420] days). Seizure recurrence was lower in newer-generation, compared with the older-generation, ASM (hazard ratio [HR], 0.42, 95%CI 0.27-0.70; p = .0013). ASM regimen withdrawal and change of dosages were lower in newer-generation ASM (HR, 0.34, 95% CI 0.21-0.56, p < .0001).

CONCLUSIONS

Newer-generation ASM possess advantages over older-generation ASM for secondary prophylaxis of post-stroke seizures in clinical practice.

Heatstroke predictions by machine learning, weather information, and an all-population registry for 12-hour heatstroke alerts

This study aims to develop and validate prediction models for the number of all heatstroke cases, and heatstrokes of hospital admission and death cases per city per 12 h, using multiple weather information and a population-based database for heatstroke patients in 16 Japanese cities (corresponding to around a 10,000,000 population size). In the testing dataset, mean absolute percentage error of generalized linear models with wet bulb globe temperature as the only predictor and the optimal models, respectively, are 43.0% and 14.8% for spikes in the number of all heatstroke cases, and 37.7% and 10.6% for spikes in the number of heatstrokes of hospital admission and death cases. The optimal models predict the spikes in the number of heatstrokes well by machine learning methods including non-linear multivariable predictors and/or under-sampling and bagging. Here, we develop prediction models whose predictive performances are high enough to be implemented in public health settings.

In the context of climate change, heatstroke is expected to become an increasingly relevant public health concern. Here, the authors develop and validate prediction models for the number of all heatstroke cases in different cities in Japan.

Machine learning model for predicting out-of-hospital cardiac arrests using meteorological and chronological data

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate a predictive model for robust estimation of daily out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) incidence using a suite of machine learning (ML) approaches and high-resolution meteorological and chronological data.

METHODS

In this population-based study, we combined an OHCA nationwide registry and high-resolution meteorological and chronological datasets from Japan. We developed a model to predict daily OHCA incidence with a training dataset for 2005-2013 using the eXtreme Gradient Boosting algorithm. A dataset for 2014-2015 was used to test the predictive model. The main outcome was the accuracy of the predictive model for the number of daily OHCA events, based on mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). In general, a model with MAPE less than 10% is considered highly accurate.

RESULTS

Among the 1 299 784 OHCA cases, 661 052 OHCA cases of cardiac origin (525 374 cases in the training dataset on which fourfold cross-validation was performed and 135 678 cases in the testing dataset) were included in the analysis. Compared with the ML models using meteorological or chronological variables alone, the ML model with combined meteorological and chronological variables had the highest predictive accuracy in the training (MAE 1.314 and MAPE 7.007%) and testing datasets (MAE 1.547 and MAPE 7.788%). Sunday, Monday, holiday, winter, low ambient temperature and large interday or intraday temperature difference were more strongly associated with OHCA incidence than other the meteorological and chronological variables.

CONCLUSIONS

A ML predictive model using comprehensive daily meteorological and chronological data allows for highly precise estimates of OHCA incidence.

Improvements of predictive power of B-type natriuretic peptide on admission by mathematically estimating its discharge levels in hospitalised patients with acute heart failure

BACKGROUNDS

Earlier studies showed that in patients with heart failure (HF), circulating levels of B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) at hospital discharge (BNP_dis) are more predictive of prognosis than BNP levels on admission (BNP_ad). However, the mechanism underlying that difference has not been fully elucidated. We examined the association between confounding factors during hospitalisation and BNP_dis in patients with HF.

METHODS

We identified patients admitted to our hospital for HF (BNP_ad ≥100 pg/mL). Estimated left ventricular end-diastolic pressure (eLVEDP) was calculated using echocardiographic data. To identify the factors associated with the relation between BNP_ad and BNP_dis, we performed a stepwise regression analysis of retrospective data. To validate that analysis, we performed a prospective study.

RESULTS

Through stepwise regression of the patient data (n=688, New York Heart Association 3-4, 88%), we found age, blood urea nitrogen and eLVEDP to be significantly (p<0.05) associated with BNP_dis. Through multivariate analysis after accounting for these factors, we created a formula for predicting BNP levels at discharge (predicted-BNP_dis) from BNP_ad and other parameters measured at admission (p<0.05). By statistically adjusting for these factors, the prognostic power of BNP_ad was significantly improved (p<0.001). The prospective study also confirmed the strong correlation between predicted-BNP_dis and BNP_dis (n=104, r=0.625, p<0.05).

CONCLUSION

This study showed that statistically accounting for confounding factors affecting BNP levels improves the predictive power of BNP levels measured at the time of hospital admission, suggesting that these confounding factors are associated with lowering predictive power of BNP on admission.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

UMIN 000034409, 00035428.

Effects of case volume and comprehensive stroke center capabilities on patient outcomes of clipping and coiling for subarachnoid hemorrhage

OBJECTIVE

Improved outcomes in patients with subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) treated at high-volume centers have been reported. The authors sought to examine whether hospital case volume and comprehensive stroke center (CSC) capabilities affect outcomes in patients treated with clipping or coiling for SAH.

METHODS

The authors conducted a nationwide retrospective cohort study in 27,490 SAH patients who underwent clipping or coiling in 621 institutions between 2010 and 2015 and whose data were collected from the Japanese nationwide J-ASPECT Diagnosis Procedure Combination database. The CSC capabilities of each hospital were assessed by use of a validated scoring system based on answers to a previously reported 25-item questionnaire (CSC score 1–25 points). Hospitals were classified into quartiles based on CSC scores and case volumes of clipping or coiling for SAH.

RESULTS

Overall, the absolute risk reductions associated with high versus low case volumes and high versus low CSC scores were relatively small. Nevertheless, in patients who underwent clipping, a high case volume (> 14 cases/yr) was significantly associated with reduced in-hospital mortality (Q1 as control, Q4 OR 0.71, 95% CI 0.55–0.90) but not with short-term poor outcome. In patients who underwent coiling, a high case volume (> 9 cases/yr) was associated with reduced in-hospital mortality (Q4 OR 0.69, 95% CI 0.53–0.90) and short-term poor outcomes (Q3 [> 5 cases/yr] OR 0.75, 95% CI 0.59–0.96 vs Q4 OR 0.65, 95% CI 0.51–0.82). A high CSC score (> 19 points) was significantly associated with reduced in-hospital mortality for clipping (OR 0.68, 95% CI 0.54–0.86) but not coiling treatment. There was no association between CSC capabilities and short-term poor outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

The effects of case volume and CSC capabilities on in-hospital mortality and short-term functional outcomes in SAH patients differed between patients undergoing clipping and those undergoing coiling. In the modern endovascular era, better outcomes of clipping may be achieved in facilities with high CSC capabilities.

Patients With LDLR and PCSK9 Gene Variants Experienced Higher Incidence of Cardiovascular Outcomes in Heterozygous Familial Hypercholesterolemia

Background

Patients with familial hypercholesterolemia who harbored both low‐density lipoprotein receptor (LDLR) and PCSK9 (proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9) gene variants exhibit severe phenotype associated with substantially high levels of low‐density lipoprotein cholesterol. In this study, we investigated the cardiovascular outcomes in patients with both LDLR and PCSK9 gene variants.

Methods and Results

A total of 232 unrelated patients with LDLR and/or PCSK9 gene variants were stratified as follows: patients with LDLR and PCSK9 (LDLR/PCSK9) gene variants, patients with LDLR gene variant, and patients with PCSK9 gene variant. Clinical demographics and the occurrence of primary outcome (nonfatal myocardial infarction) were compared. The observation period of primary outcome started at the time of birth and ended at the time of the first cardiac event or the last visit. Patients with LDLR/PCSK9 gene variants were identified in 6% of study patients. They had higher levels of low‐density lipoprotein cholesterol (P=0.04) than those with LDLR gene variants. On multivariate Cox regression model, they experienced a higher incidence of nonfatal myocardial infarction (hazard ratio, 4.62; 95% CI, 1.66–11.0; P=0.003 versus patients with LDLR gene variant). Of note, risk for nonfatal myocardial infarction was greatest in male patients with LDLR/PCSK9 gene variants compared with those with LDLR gene variant (86% versus 24%; P<0.001).

Conclusions

Patients with LDLR/PCSK9 gene variants were high‐risk genotype associated with atherogenic lipid profiles and worse cardiovascular outcomes. These findings underscore the importance of genetic testing to identify patients with LDLR/PCSK9 gene variants, who require more stringent antiatherosclerotic management.

COVID-19 pandemic is associated with mechanical complications in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction

OBJECTIVE

Although there are regional reports that the COVID-19 pandemic is associated with a reduction in acute myocardial infarction presentations and primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) procedures, little is known about the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mechanical complications resulting from ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and mortality.

METHODS

This single-centre retrospective cohort study analysed presentations, incidence of mechanical complications, and mortality in patients with STEMI before and after a state of emergency was declared due to the COVID-19 pandemic by the Japanese government on 7 April 2020.

RESULTS

We analysed 359 patients with STEMI hospitalised before the declaration and 63 patients hospitalised after the declaration. The proportion of patients with late presentation was significantly higher after the declaration than before (25.4% vs 14.2%, p=0.03). The incidence of late presentation was significantly higher during the COVID-19 pandemic than before (incidence rate ratio (IRR), 2.41; 95% CI, 1.37 to 4.05; p=0.001, even after adjusting for month (IRR, 2.61; 95% CI, 1.33 to 5.13; p<0.01). Primary PCI was performed significantly less often after the declaration than before (68.3% vs 82.5%, p=0.009). The mechanical complication resulting from STEMI occurred in 13 of 359 (3.6%) patients before the declaration and 9 of 63 (14.3%) patients after the declaration (p<0.001). However, the incidence of in-hospital death (before, 6.2% vs after, 6.4%, p=0.95) was comparable.

CONCLUSIONS

Following the COVID-19 pandemic, an increased incidence of mechanical complications resulting from STEMI was observed. Instructing people to stay at home, without effectively educating them to immediately seek medical attention when suffering symptoms of a heart attack, may worsen outcomes in patients with STEMI.

Cancer- and noncancer-specific cumulative incidence of death after exposure to polychlorinated biphenyls and dioxins: A competing risk analysis among Yusho patients

BACKGROUND

In competing risks settings, the cause-specific cumulative incidence function is of great interest since it quantifies cumulative risk in the presence of other causes. To date, however, long-term cancer- and noncancer-specific mortality in Yusho patients exposed to polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and dioxin-related compounds has not been estimated.

METHODS

We identified vital status and cause of death for Yusho patients between 1968 and 2017. Risk of cancer- and noncancer-specific mortality was estimated using a flexible hazards-based regression model, with accounting for competing events.

RESULTS

In total, 1664 Yusho patients with 63,566 person-years of follow-up were included in the analysis. 50-year cumulative incidence of cancer mortality was 12.4% (95% confidence interval [CI], 10.5-14.7) in males and 4.7% (95% CI, 3.5-6.4) in females (difference, 7.7 percentage points [95% CI, 5.2-10.2]; adjusted hazard ratio for males, 2.61 [95% CI, 1.93-3.52]). For noncancer, the 50-year cumulative incidence of mortality was 35.4% (95% CI, 32.8-38.3) in males and 35.6% (95% CI, 33.3-38.1) in females (difference, -0.2 percentage points [95% CI, -3.5 to 3.1]; adjusted hazard ratio for males, 1.51 [95% CI, 1.26-1.82]).

CONCLUSIONS

These findings confirm that male Yusho patients have a significantly higher risk of cumulative incidence of cancer-specific mortality than female Yusho patients. Our findings might be useful in providing Yusho patients with more accurate information on cancer prognosis and survivorship and help determine more appropriate disease management.

Incidence and Mortality of Dementia-Related Missing and Their Associated Factors: An Ecological Study in Japan

Background

Dementia-related missing and subsequent deaths are becoming serious problems with increases in people with dementia. However, there are no sufficient studies investigating the incidence rate, the mortality rate, and their risk factors.

Methods

An ecological study aggregated at the Japanese prefectural level was conducted. Dementia-related missing persons cases and deaths in 2018 were extracted from the statistics of the National Police Agency in Japan. We extracted variables about older adults’ characteristics, care, and safety as candidate variables considered to be relevant to dementia-related missing persons cases and deaths. Associations of the candidate variables with the incidence and mortality rates were analyzed using the generalized linear model (family: quasi-poisson, link: log) adjusted for confounding factors (proportion of older adults and gross prefectural product).

Results

The incidence rate and mortality rate per 100,000 person-year was 21.72 and 0.652 in Japan, respectively. One facility increase in the number of nursing care facilities for older adults per 100,000 persons aged 65-years-old or more was associated with a 7.9% (95% confidence interval [CI], 3.3–12.4%) decrease in the incidence rate. One increase in the number of public health nurses per 100,000 persons was associated with a 3.2% (95% CI, 1.6–4.9%) decrease in the incidence rate. A ten percent increase in the proportion of people who live in an urban area was associated with a 20.3% (95% CI, 8.7–33.2%) increase in the incidence rate and a 12.9% (95% CI, 5.6–19.8%) decrease in the mortality rate.

Conclusions

Identified associated factors may be useful for managing or predicting dementia-related missing persons cases and associated deaths.

Mortality in Yusho patients exposed to polychlorinated biphenyls and polychlorinated dibenzofurans: a 50-year retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

In 1968, the Yusho incident resulted in accidental exposure to polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs), and related compounds in Japan. This study updated the risk of mortality in Yusho patients.

METHODS

We obtained updated cohort data for all Yusho patients for the period 1968-2017. We calculated standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) for all-cause and cause-specific mortality over a 50-year follow-up period compared with the general population in Japan.

RESULTS

A total of 1664 Yusho patients with 63,566 person-years of follow up were included in the analysis. Among males, excess mortality was observed for all cancers (SMR: 1.22, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.02 to 1.45) and lung cancer (SMR: 1.59, 95% CI: 1.12 to 2.19). Among females, increased mortality was observed for liver cancer (SMR: 2.05, 95% CI: 1.02 to 3.67). No significant increase was seen in non-cancer-related mortality compared with the general population.

CONCLUSIONS

Carcinogenic risk in humans after exposure to PCBs and PCDFs remains higher among Yusho patients. Our findings suggest the importance of care engagement and optimum management to deal with the burden of Yusho disease.

Exploration of biomarkers to predict clinical improvement of atopic dermatitis in patients treated with dupilumab: A study protocol

BACKGROUND

Atopic dermatitis (AD) is a common eczematous skin disorder that profoundly reduces the quality of life due to intractable pruritus. Excellent therapeutic success of the anti-interleukin 4 receptor-α antibody dupilumab in clinical trials and a real-world clinical context indicates the crucial roles of interleukin (IL)-4 and IL-13 in the pathogenesis of AD. Along with the clinical improvement in skin scores and pruritus, dupilumab significantly and progressively reduces and normalizes the upregulated expression of T helper type 2 signatures such as Chemokine (C-C motif) ligand (CCL)17, CCL18, CCL22, and CCL26 in the lesional skin of AD. However, no blood/serum biomarkers are known to predict good or poor outcome in patients with AD treated with dupilumab.

METHODS

Patients are at least 18 years of age and have moderate-to-severe AD with Eczema Area and Severity Index (EASI) ≥16, Investigator's Global Assessment ≥3, and body surface area ≥10%. We are going to enroll more than 130 subjects from 18 medical facilities. Clinical objective findings will be evaluated by EASI. Subjective symptoms will be assessed by Patient-Oriented Eczema Measure, Numerical Rating Scale for Pruritus (Pruritus-NRS), Skin Comfort-NRS, and Treatment Satisfaction-NRS. We will measure 18 blood/serum biomarkers including % eosinophils in blood cell count, lactate dehydrogenase, total IgE, soluble interleukin 2 receptor, CCL17, CCL18, CCL22, CCL26, CCL27, IL-13, IL-22, IL-24, IL-25, IL-31, IL-33, thymic stromal lymphopoietin, periostin, and squamous cell carcinoma antigen-2. The clinical evaluation and biomarker sampling will be performed at 0, 2, 4, 8, and 16 weeks of dupilumab treatment. We will also perform proteomic analysis (of roughly 300 proteins) of the patients' sera obtained at 0 and 2 weeks of treatment. The primary endpoint is the association between "baseline levels of 18 biomarkers" and "% change from baseline of EASI at 16 weeks of dupilumab treatment."

DISCUSSION

This is the first clinical trial to explore the biomarkers, including potential proteomic markers, most strongly associated with improvement in EASI in patients with moderate-to-severe AD treated with dupilumab for 16 weeks (B-PAD study). A limitation is that we will only enroll Japanese patients.

Temporal trends and geographical disparities in comprehensive stroke centre capabilities in Japan from 2010 to 2018

OBJECTIVES

Comprehensive stroke centre (CSC) capabilities are associated with reduced in-hospital mortality due to acute stroke. However, it remains unclear whether there are improving trends in the CSC capabilities or how hospital-related factors determine quality improvement. This study examined whether CSC capabilities changed in Japan between 2010 and 2018 and and whether any changes were influenced by hospital characteristics.

DESIGN

A hospital-based cross-sectional study.

SETTING

We sent out questionnaires to the training institutions of the Japan Neurosurgical Society and Japan Stroke Society in 2010, 2014 and 2018.

PARTICIPANTS

749 hospitals in 2010, 532 hospitals in 2014 and 786 hospitals in 2018 participated in the J-ASPECT study, a nationwide survey of acute stroke care capacity for proper designation of a comprehensive stroke centre in Japan.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

CSC capabilities were assessed using the validated scoring system (CSC score: 1-25 points) in 2010, 2014 and 2018 survey. The effect of hospital characteristics was examined using multiple logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

Among the 323 hospitals that responded to all surveys, the implementation of 13 recommended items increased. The CSC score (median and IQR) was 16 (13-19), 18 (14-20) and 19 (15-21) for 2010, 2014 and 2018, respectively (p<0.001). There was a ≥20% increase in six items (eg, endovascular physicians, stroke unit and interventional coverage 24/7), and a ≤20% decrease in community education. A lower baseline CSC score (OR: 0.82, 95% CI 0.75 to 0.9), the number of beds≥500 (OR: 3.9, 95% CI 1.2 to 13.0) and the number of stroke physicians (7-9) (OR: 2.6, 95% CI 1.1 to 6.3) were associated with improved CSC capabilities, independent of geographical location.

CONCLUSIONS

There was a significant improvement in CSC capabilities between 2010 and 2018, which was mainly related to the availability of endovascular treatment and multidisciplinary care. Our findings may be useful to determine which hospitals should be targeted to improve CSC capabilities in a defined area.

Food Workers as a Reservoir of Extended-Spectrum-Cephalosporin-Resistant Salmonella Strains in Japan

Dissemination of extended-spectrum-cephalosporin (ESC)-resistant Salmonella, especially extended-spectrum-β-lactamase (ESBL)-producing Salmonella, is a concern worldwide. Here, we assessed Salmonella carriage by food workers in Japan to clarify the prevalence of ESC-resistant Salmonella harboring blaCTX-M We then characterized the genetic features, such as transposable elements, of blaCTX-M-harboring plasmids using whole-genome sequencing. A total of 145,220 stool samples were collected from food workers, including cooks and servers from several restaurants, as well as food factory workers, from January to October 2017. Isolated salmonellae were subjected to antimicrobial susceptibility testing (disk diffusion method), and whole-genome sequencing was performed for Salmonella strains harboring blaCTX-M Overall, 164 Salmonella isolates (0.113%) were recovered from 164 samples, from which we estimated that at least 0.113% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.096 to 0.132%) of food workers may carry Salmonella Based on this estimation, 3,473 (95% CI = 2,962 to 4,047) individuals among the 3,075,330 Japanese food workers are likely to carry Salmonella Of the 158 culturable isolates, seven showed resistance to ESCs: three isolates harbored blaCMY-2 and produced AmpC β-lactamase, while four ESBL-producing isolates harbored blaCTX-M-14 (n = 1, Salmonella enterica serovar Senftenberg) or blaCTX-M-15 (n = 3, S. enterica serovar Haardt). blaCTX-M-15 was chromosomally located in the S Haardt isolates, which also contained ISEcp1, while the S Senftenberg isolate contained an IncFIA(HI1)/IncHI1A/IncHI1B(R27) hybrid plasmid carrying blaCTX-M-14 along with ISEcp1 This study indicates that food workers may be a reservoir of ESBL-producing Salmonella and associated genes. Thus, these workers may contribute to the spread of blaCTX-M via plasmids or mobile genetic elements such as ISEcp1IMPORTANCE Antimicrobial-resistant Salmonella bacteria arise in farm environments through imprudent use of antimicrobials. Subsequently, these antimicrobial-resistant strains, such as extended-spectrum-β-lactamase (ESBL)-producing Salmonella, may be transmitted to humans via food animal-derived products. Here, we examined Salmonella carriage among food handlers in Japan. Overall, 164 of 145,220 fecal samples (0.113%) were positive for Salmonella Among the 158 tested isolates, four were identified as ESBL-producing isolates carrying ESBL determinants blaCTX-M-15 or blaCTX-M-14 In all cases, the genes coexisted with ISEcp1, regardless of whether they were located on the chromosome or on a plasmid. Our findings suggest that food workers may be a reservoir of ESBL-producing strains and could contribute to the spread of resistance genes from farm-derived Salmonella to other bacterial species present in the human gut.

Abstract WP350: National Trends in Outcomes of Ischemic Stroke and Prognostic Influence of Stroke Center Capability in Japan

Background: Limited national-level information on temporal trends in comprehensive stroke center (CSC) capabilities and their effects on acute ischemic stroke (AIS) patients exists.

Aims: To examine trends in in-hospital outcomes of AIS patients and the prognostic influence of temporal changes in CSC capabilities in Japan.

Methods: This retrospective study used the J-ASPECT Diagnosis Procedure Combination database and identified 372,978 AIS patients hospitalized in 650 institutions between 2010 and 2016. Temporal trends in patient outcomes and recombinant tissue plasminogen activator (rt-PA) and mechanical thrombectomy (MT) usage were examined. Facility CSC capabilities were assessed using a validated scoring system (CSC score: 1-25 points) in 2010 and 2014. The prognostic influence of temporal CSC score changes on in-hospitalmortality and poor outcomes (modified Rankin Scale: 3-6) at discharge were examined using hierarchical logistic regression models.

Results: Over time, stroke severity at admission decreased, whereas median age, sex ratio, and comorbidities remained stable. During the study period, usage of rt-PA and MT in rural areas remained lower than that of urban areas, but in 2016, the differences in their use were within 1%. The median CSC score increased from 16 to 17 points. After adjusting for age, sex, comorbidities, consciousness level, and facility CSC score, proportion of in-hospitalmortality and poor outcomes at discharge decreased (from 7.6% to 5.0%, and from 48.7% to 43.1%, respectively). The preceding CSC score increase (in 2010-2014) was independently associated with reduced in-hospital mortality and poor outcomes, and increased rt-PA and MT use (odds ratio (95% confidence interval): 0.97(0.95-0.99), 0.97(0.95-1.00), 1.07(1.04-1.10), and 1.21(1.14-1.28) , respectively).

Conclusions: This nationwide study revealed six-year trends in better patient outcomes and increased use of rt-PA and MT in AIS. In addition to lesser stroke severity, preceding improvement of CSC capabilities was an independent factor associated with such trends, suggesting importance of CSC capabilities as a prognostic indicator of acute stroke care.

Abstract TP453: The Effect of Case Volume and Comprehensive Stroke Centre Capabilities on Patient Outcomes of Clipping and Coiling for Subarachnoid Haemorrhage

Objectives: To examine whether hospital case volume and comprehensive stroke centre(CSC) capabilities affect patient outcomes of clipping and coiling for subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH).

Methods: We conducted a nationwide retrospective cohort study. Using the J-ASPECT Diagnosis Procedure Combination database, we identified 27,490 SAH patients who underwent clipping or coiling in 621 institutions between 2010 and 2015. The CSC capabilities of each hospital were assessed using a validated scoring system (CSC score: 1-25 points). We classified the hospitals into quartiles based on CSC score and case volume of clipping or coiling for SAH.

Results: In clipped patients, a high case volume ( > 14 cases / year) was significantly associated with reduced in-hospital mortality (Q1 as control, Q4 odds ratios (ORs) 0.71 [95% confidence interval 0.55 - 0.90]) but not poor outcome. In coiled patients, a high case volume ( > 9 cases / year) was associated with reduced in-hospital mortality (Q4 0.69 [0.53 - 0.90]) and poor outcomes (Q3 ( > 5 cases / year) 0.75 [0.59 - 0.96], Q4 0.65 [0.51 - 0.82]). A high CSC score ( > 19 points) was significantly associated with reduced in-hospital mortality of clipped (0.68 [0.54 - 0.86]) but not coiled patients. There was no association between CSC capabilities and poor outcomes.

Conclusions: The effect of case volume and CSC capabilities on in-hospital mortality and short-term functional outcomes in SAH patients was different between clipping and coiling. In the modern endovascular era, better outcomes of clipping may be achieved in facilities with high CSC capabilities.

Abstract TP127: Periprocedual Risk of Treatment for Carotid Stenosis Complicated With Cardiac Disease - J-ASPECT Study

Background and Purpose: Heart disease is a common comorbid condition among patients undergoing carotid endarterectomy (CEA) and carotid artery stent placement (CAS). However, the outcomes of patients with heart disease who were treated with CEA/CAS have not been fully examined. We investigated the impact of heart disease on outcomes of CEA and CAS in general practice using the Japanese nationwide data from J-ASPECT study.

Methods: We analyzed data from 23,366 patients of CEA or CAS (CEA 8,514, CAS 14,809) who had been hospitalized in the period from April 2012 to March 2017. We extracted data from the Japanese nationwide DPC database for patients who underwent CEA or CAS which were identified from procedural coding with Japanese original K-codes (CEA: K6092, CAS: K609-2). For further categorization of carotid artery stenosis patients with or without heart disease, we used the ICD-10 code (ischemic heart disease, valvular disease cardiomyopathy, conduction disturbance, cardiac arrhythmia, atrial fibrillation/atrial flutter and heart failure) to identify the presence of heart disease. Outcome (death within 30days) was compared between the patient who underwent CEA or CAS and patient with or without heart disease after adjustment for patient characteristics by using the logistic regression analysis.

Results: Of the patients who underwent CAS or CEA, 2495 (29.3%) in CEA and 3930 (26.5%) in CAS were complicated with heart disease. Heart disease was not associated with the risk of death within 30days in both patients undergoing CEA (OR, 1.38; 95% CI, 0.54-3.55, p=0.5) or CAS (OR, 1.42; 95% CI, 0.93-2.16, p=0.099). Among heart disease, valvular disease was associated with increased the risk of death within 30days in patients undergoing CEA (OR, 6.71; 95% CI, 1.89-23.77, p=0.0032) and CAS (OR, 2.94; 95% CI, 1.05-8.20, p=0.004) after adjustment for potential confounders. Especially of the patients with valvular disease, aortic valve disease was significantly increased the risk of death within 30days (CEA: OR, 11.2; 95% CI, 3.13-39.8, p=0.0002, CAS: OR, 3.53; 95% CI, 1.07-11.6, p=0.038).

Conclusion: Patients who were complicated with valvular disease, especially aortic valve disease had a high risk of death within 30 days after CEA or CAS.

Flagellum expression and swimming activity by the zoonotic pathogen Escherichia albertii

Flagella are the well-known structural appendages used by bacteria for motility. Although generally reported to be non-motile, the enteropathogenic bacterial species Escherichia albertii produces flagella intermittently. We found that E. albertii expressed flagella under specific environmental conditions. After several generations (involving 4 to 12-h incubations), six of the twelve strains we investigated displayed swimming motility in various aquatic environments, including pond water containing nutrients from pigeon droppings (10% suspension) as well as in 20 × -diluted tryptic soy broth. The most significant motility determinant was a temperature between 15 and 30 °C. At 20 °C in the 10% pigeon-dropping suspension, microscopic observations revealed that some cells (1%-95% of six strains) showed swimming motility. Electron microscopy showed that the E. albertii cells expressed flagella. Lower concentrations of some substrates (including nutrients) may be of secondary importance for E. albertii flagella expression. Interestingly, the non-motile strains (n = 6/12) contained pseudogenes corresponding to essential flagella structural proteins. After being released from its host into surface water, E. albertii may express flagella to move toward nutrient sources or new hosts.

Public-access defibrillation and neurological outcomes in patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest in Japan: a population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

More than 80% of public-access defibrillation attempts do not result in sustained return of spontaneous circulation in patients who have had an out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) and a shockable heart rhythm before arrival of emergency medical service (EMS) personnel. Neurological and survival outcomes in such patients have not been evaluated. We aimed to assess the neurological status and survival outcomes in such patients.

METHODS

This is a retropective analysis of a cohort study from a prospective, nationwide, population-based registry of 1 299 784 patients who had an OHCA event between Jan 1, 2005, and Dec 31, 2015 in Japan. The primary outcome was favourable neurological outcome (Cerebral Performance Category of 1 or 2) at 30 days after the OHCA and the secondary outcome was survival at 30 days following the OHCA. This study is registered with the University Hospital Medical Information Network Clinical Trials Registry, UMIN000009918.

FINDINGS

We identified 28 019 patients with bystander-witnessed OHCA and shockable heart rhythm who had received CPR from a bystander. Of these, 2242 (8·0%) patients did not achieve return of spontaneous circulation with CPR plus public-access defibrillation, and 25 087 (89·5%) patients did not achieve return of spontaneous circulation with CPR alone before EMS arrival. The proportion of patients with a favourable neurological outcome was significantly higher in those who received public-access defibrillation than those who did not (845 [37·7%] vs 5676 [22·6%]; adjusted odds ratio [OR] after propensity score-matching, 1·45 [95% CI 1·24-1·69], p<0·0001). The proportion of patients who survived at 30 days after the OHCA was also significantly higher in those who received public-access defibrillation than those who did not (987 [44·0%] vs 7976 [31·8%]; adjusted OR after propensity score-matching, 1·31 [95% CI 1·13-1·52], p<0·0001).

INTERPRETATION

Our findings support the benefits of public-access defibrillation and greater accessibility and availability of automated external defibrillators in the community.

FUNDING

None.

National trends in outcomes of ischemic stroke and prognostic influence of stroke center capability in Japan, 2010-2016

BACKGROUND

Limited national-level information on temporal trends in comprehensive stroke center capabilities and their effects on acute ischemic stroke patients exists.

AIMS

To examine trends in in-hospital outcomes of acute ischemic stroke patients and the prognostic influence of temporal changes in comprehensive stroke center capabilities in Japan.

METHODS

This retrospective study used the J-ASPECT Diagnosis Procedure Combination database and identified 372,978 acute ischemic stroke patients hospitalized in 650 institutions between 2010 and 2016. Temporal trends in patient outcomes and recombinant tissue plasminogen activator (rt-PA) and mechanical thrombectomy usage were examined. Facility comprehensive stroke center capabilities were assessed using a validated scoring system (comprehensive stroke center score: 1-25 points) in 2010 and 2014. The prognostic influence of temporal comprehensive stroke center score changes on in-hospital mortality and poor outcomes (modified Rankin Scale: 3-6) at discharge were examined using hierarchical logistic regression models.

RESULTS

Over time, stroke severity at admission decreased, whereas median age, sex ratio, and comorbidities remained stable. The median comprehensive stroke center score increased from 16 to 17 points. After adjusting for age, sex, comorbidities, consciousness level, and facility comprehensive stroke center score, proportion of in-hospital mortality and poor outcomes at discharge decreased (from 7.6% to 5.0%, and from 48.7% to 43.1%, respectively). The preceding comprehensive stroke center score increase (in 2010-2014) was independently associated with reduced in-hospital mortality and poor outcomes, and increased rt-PA and mechanical thrombectomy use (odds ratio (95% confidence interval): 0.97 (0.95-0.99), 0.97 (0.95-0.998), 1.07 (1.04-1.10), and 1.21 (1.14-1.28), respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

This nationwide study revealed six-year trends in better patient outcomes and increased use of rt-PA and mechanical thrombectomy in acute ischemic stroke. In addition to lesser stroke severity, preceding improvement of comprehensive stroke center capabilities was an independent factor associated with such trends, suggesting importance of comprehensive stroke center capabilities as a prognostic indicator of acute stroke care.

Future projections of temperature-related excess out-of-hospital cardiac arrest under climate change scenarios in Japan

BACKGROUND

Recent studies have reported associations between global climate change and mortality. However, future projections of temperature-related out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) have not been thoroughly evaluated. Thus, we aimed to project temperature-related morbidity for OHCA concomitant with climate change.

METHODS

We collected national registry data on all OHCA cases reported in 2005-2015 from all 47 Japanese prefectures. We used a two-stage time series analysis to estimate temperature-OHCA relationships. Time series of current and future daily mean temperature variations were constructed according to four climate change scenarios of representative concentration pathways (RCPs) using five general circulation models. We projected excess morbidity for heat and cold and the net change in 1990-2099 for each climate change scenario using the assumption of no adaptation or population changes.

RESULTS

During the study period, 739,717 OHCAs of presumed cardiac origin were reported. Net decreases in temperature-related excess morbidity were observed under higher emission scenarios. The net change in 2090-2099 compared with 2010-2019 was -0.8% (95% empirical confidence interval [eCI]: -1.9, 0.1) for a mild emission scenario (RCP2.6), -2.6% (95% eCI: -4.4, -0.8) for a stabilization scenario (RCP4.5), -3.4% (95% eCI: -5.7, -1.0) for a stabilization scenario (RCP6.0), and - 4.2% (95% eCI: -8.3, -0.1) for an extreme emission scenario (RCP8.5).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study indicates that Japan is projected to experience a substantial net reduction in OHCAs in higher-emission scenarios. The decrease in risk is limited to a specific morbidity cause, and a broader assessment within climate change scenarios should consider other direct and indirect impacts.

Modeling Future Projections of Temperature-Related Excess Morbidity due to Infectious Gastroenteritis under Climate Change Conditions in Japan

BACKGROUND

Climate change has marked implications for the burden of infectious diseases. However, no studies have estimated future projections of climate change–related excess morbidity due to diarrhea according to climate change scenarios.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to examine temperature-infectious gastroenteritis associations throughout Japan and project temperature-related morbidity concomitant with climate change for the 2090s.

METHODS

Weekly time series of average temperature and morbidity for infectious gastroenteritis cases in the period 2005-2015 were collated from the 47 Japanese prefectures. A two-stage time-series analysis was adopted to estimate temperature-infectious gastroenteritis relationships. Time series of present and future average daily temperature fluctuations were projected for the four climate change scenarios of representative concentration pathways (RCPs) according to five general circulation models. Excess morbidity for high and low temperatures and the net change in the period 1990–2099 were projected for each climate change scenario by assuming the absence of adaptation and population alterations.

RESULTS

In the period 2005–2015, 11,529,833 infectious gastroenteritis cases were reported. There were net reductions in temperature-induced excess morbidity under higher emission scenarios. The net change in the projection period 2090-2099 in comparison with 2010–2019 was [Formula: see text] (95% empirical confidence interval [eCI]: [Formula: see text], 0.5) for RCP2.6, [Formula: see text] (95% eCI: [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text]) for RCP4.5, [Formula: see text] (95% eCI: [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text]) for RCP6.0, and [Formula: see text] (95% eCI: [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text]) for RCP8.5, and the higher the emissions scenario, the larger the estimates reductions. Spatial heterogeneity in the temperature-morbidity relationship was observed among prefectures (Cochran Q test, [Formula: see text]; [Formula: see text]).

CONCLUSIONS

Japan may experience a net reduction in temperature-related excess morbidity due to infectious gastroenteritis in higher emission scenarios. These results might be because the majority of temperature-related diarrhea cases in Japan are attributable to viral infections during the winter season. Further projections of specific pathogen-induced infectious gastroenteritis due to climate change are warranted. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP4731.

Impact of the consumption tax rate increase on out-of-hospital cardiac arrest in Japan: an interrupted time series analysis

OBJECTIVES

The Japanese government increased the consumption tax rate from 5% to 8% on 1 April 2014. The impact of this policy on the incidence of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) is unknown. Thus, we aimed to evaluate a potential association between the consumption tax rate increase and OHCA.

DESIGN

An interrupted time series design.

SETTING

National registry data for all cases of OHCA in Japan.

PARTICIPANTS

All OHCA cases of presumed cardiac origin in Japan between January 2005 and December 2016.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURE

We used a quasiexperimental design with interrupted time series analysis to investigate whether the consumption tax rate increase was associated with changes in OHCA trends after adjusting for baseline trends. The effective date of the consumption tax rate increase (1 April 2014) was used to split the OHCA data into categories of before and after the change.

RESULTS

In total, 808 055 OHCAs of presumed cardiac origin were reported during the study period. Prior to the consumption tax rate increase, the mean monthly OHCA rate was 5.12 cases per 100 000 population (mean monthly count: 5483.45). After adjusting for underlying trends, there was a substantial step change in the incidence of OHCAs (relative risk (RR): 0.921; 95% CI 0.889 to 0.955).

CONCLUSIONS

The implementation of the consumption tax rate increase was associated with a significant decrease in the incidence of OHCAs in Japan.

The Influence of Age on the Outcomes of Traumatic Brain Injury: Findings from a Japanese Nationwide Survey (J-ASPECT Study-Traumatic Brain Injury)

BACKGROUND

The epidemiology of patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI) has changed dramatically over recent decades as a result of rapid advances in aging societies. We assessed the influence of age on outcomes of patients with TBI and sought to identify prognostic factors for in-hospital mortality of TBI among elderly patients.

METHODS

Using a nationwide database, we analyzed data from 5651 patients with TBI. Univariate analysis was conducted to compare patient demographics, neurologic status on admission, radiologic findings, systemic complication rates, length of hospital stay, in-hospital mortality, and home discharge rates between elderly and nonelderly groups. Multivariable analysis was conducted to determine prognostic factors for in-hospital mortality among elderly patients.

RESULTS

Overall in-hospital mortality was significantly higher in elderly patients (12.8% vs. 19.3%; P < 0.001). In-hospital mortality of elderly patients with mild TBI increased significantly at >7 days after admission, whereas that of elderly patients with moderate or severe TBI was significantly higher immediately after admission. Age (odds ratio [OR], 1.62; P = 0.024), male sex (OR, 1.30; P = 0.004), Japan Coma Scale score on admission (OR, 5.95, P < 0.001), and incidence of acute subdural hematoma (OR, 1.89; P < 0.001) were associated with in-hospital mortality in elderly patients with TBI.

CONCLUSIONS

Elderly patients with TBI showed significantly higher in-hospital mortality. Delayed increases in in-hospital mortality were observed among elderly patients with mild TBI. Level of consciousness on admission was the strongest predictor of in-hospital mortality among elderly patients.

Abstract WP311: Impact of Physician Volume and Specialty on In-hospital Mortality of Ischemic and Hemorrhagic Stroke -j-aspect Study

Background: The association between physician volume and the death rate for patients who are hospitalized for ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke remains unclear. It is unknown whether a volume threshold for such an association exists. We aimed to analyze the correlation between in-hospital stroke mortality and physician volume considering board certification status.

Methods: For this cross-sectional study, data on patients hospitalized for ischemic stroke, intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), and subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) between 2010 and 2016[MOU1] [KN2] were obtained from the Diagnosis Procedure Combination database in Japan using International Classification of Diseases-10 diagnosis codes. The numbers of stroke care physicians and relevant board-certified physicians were asked. Odd ratios (ORs) of 30 day in-hospital mortality were estimated after adjustment for institutional differences, age, sex, comorbidities, and level of consciousness using generalized mixed logistic regressions.

Findings: In a total of 295,150, 98,657 and 36,1741 patients with ischemic stroke, ICH and SAH, 30 day in-hospital mortality rates were 4.4,16 and 26.6 %. For all types of stroke, the number of stroke care physicians was associated with reduced in-hospital mortality (all p for trend<0·001). The number of board-certified neurosurgeons, stroke physicians, and endovascular surgeons stroke physicians showed clear association with reduced in-hospital mortality of ischemic stroke (volume threshold, OR [95%CI] for three specialties: six, 0·86 [0·79-0·95]; p=0·002, one, 0·79 [0·71-0·87]; p<0·001, three, 0·90 [0·80-1·00]; p=0·046), ICH (six, 0·87 [0·78-0·98]; p=0·019, two, 0·76 [0·60-0·96]; p=0·02, three, 0·82 [0·73-0·93]; p=0·002), and SAH (four, 0·80 [0·71-0·91]; p=0·001, six, 0·72 [0·53-0·98]; p=0·04, two, 0·85 [0·75-0·96]; p=0·01). The number of board-certified neurologists did so only for ischemic stroke (two, 0·88 [0·80-0·97]; p=0·013).

Interpretation: The number of stroke care physicians was associated with reduced in-hospital mortality for all types of stroke. The volume threshold of board-certified physicians depends on specialty and stroke types.

The association of tobacco use with prescription of muscle relaxants, benzodiazepines, and opioid analgesics for non-cancer pain

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Tobacco use and co-prescription of sedative hypnotics are risk factors for misuse of prescribed opioids among patients with non-cancer pain. However, the association between tobacco use and these co-prescriptions has not been clarified. We aimed to assess differences in the prescription and co-prescription rates of opioid analgesics with muscle relaxants and/or benzodiazepines between tobacco users and non-users.

METHODS

Visit data were obtained from the 2006 to 2009 National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey, an annual cross-sectional survey of visits to office-based physicians in outpatient settings in the United States. Our sample patients were aged ≥18 years and diagnosed with non-cancer back and neck pain. The χ² test and multiple logistic regression analysis were used to assess bivariate and multivariate associations between prescription or co-prescription rates and tobacco use status.

RESULTS

We analyzed a total of 114,199,536 weighted visits (unweighted number: 3,521). Significant odds ratios (ORs) of tobacco users (vs non-users) for medical prescriptions were as follows: opioid analgesics, OR 2.14, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.64-2.80; muscle relaxants and opioid analgesics, OR 2.57, 95%CI 1.76-3.74; benzodiazepines and opioid analgesics, OR 3.66, 95%CI 2.11-6.35, and muscle relaxants, benzodiazepines, and opioid analgesics, OR 7.02, 95%CI 2.98-16.57.

CONCLUSIONS AND SCIENTIFIC SIGNIFICANCE

Tobacco users were more likely to receive prescriptions for opioid analgesics with muscle relaxants and/or benzodiazepines than non-users. Healthcare professionals need to limit co-prescription of opioid analgesics with muscle relaxants and/or benzodiazepines among tobacco users and provide a comprehensive approach to pain management. (Am J Addict 2019;XX:1-8).

Full moon and traffic accident-related emergency ambulance transport: A nationwide case-crossover study

BACKGROUND

Several studies have examined the association between environmental factors and traffic accidents. However, the role of a full moon in triggering emergency ambulance transport due to road traffic casualties is unclear. Thus, we aimed to examine whether a full moon contributes to the incidence of emergency transport due to road traffic crashes.

METHODS

We acquired nationwide data on daily emergency transport due to road traffic crashes from all 47 prefectures of Japan from 2010 to 2014. We conducted a time-stratified case-crossover study using conditional Poisson regression to examine the relationship between the occurrence of a full moon and emergency transport due to road traffic crashes for each prefecture. Prefecture-level results were combined using a random-effects meta-analysis to evaluate nation-level estimates.

RESULTS

There were 842,554 cases of emergency transport due to road traffic crashes across 1826 nights (62 full moon nights: n = 29,584; 1764 control nights: n = 812,970). On days with a full moon, the pooled adjusted relative risk (RR) of emergency transport due to traffic accidents was 1.042 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.021-1.063). Overall, 4.03% (95% CI: 2.06-5.93) of the cases (1192 cases) were attributable to full moon nights. Stratified analyses revealed a significant increase in emergency transport due to traffic accidents on full moon nights for males, people aged ≥40 years, and before midnight.

CONCLUSIONS

Full moon nights are associated with an increase in the incidence of emergency transport due to road traffic crashes. These results indicate that public health strategies should account for full moon nights to decrease emergency transport due to traffic accidents.

Grand Sumo Tournaments and Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrests in Tokyo

Background

Sumo wrestling is a demanding sport. Although watching sumo wrestling may have cardiovascular effects, no studies of this relationship have been performed. Thus, we aimed to evaluate the association between sumo wrestling tournaments and the rate of out‐of‐hospital cardiac arrests.

Methods and Results

We counted the daily number of patients aged 18 to 110 years who had an out‐of‐hospital cardiac arrest of presumed‐cardiac origin in the Tokyo metropolis between 2005 and 2014. A Poisson regression was used to model out‐of‐hospital cardiac arrests of presumed‐cardiac origin per day. Exposure days were the days on which a sumo tournament was held and broadcast, whereas control days were all other days. Events that occurred on exposure days were compared with those that occurred on control days. Risk ratios for out‐of‐hospital cardiac arrests on Grand Sumo tournaments days compared with control days were estimated. In total, 71 882 out‐of‐hospital cardiac arrests met the inclusion criteria. We recorded a 9% increase in the occurrence of out‐of‐hospital cardiac arrests on the day of a sumo tournament compared with control days. In patients aged 75 to 110 years, we found a 13% increase in the occurrence of out‐of‐hospital cardiac arrests on the day of a sumo tournament compared with control days.

Conclusions

We found a significant increase in the occurrence of out‐of‐hospital cardiac arrests on the days of sumo tournaments compared with control days in the Tokyo metropolis between 2005 and 2014. Further studies are needed to verify these initial findings on sumo tournaments and cardiovascular events.

Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrests During the Japanese Professional Baseball Championship Series

Because the Japan Professional Baseball Championship Series (Japan Series) is a stressful sports event, it is possible that watching Japan Series matches may increase the risk of cardiovascular events. Therefore, we investigated the potential association between the Japan Series and the incidence of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) events. National registry data for all cases of OHCA between 2005 and 2014 from 47 prefectures of Japan were obtained. We used a time-stratified case-crossover design with a conditional Poisson regression model to compare OHCA events during the Japan Series with those events that occurred during the periods except for dates of the Japan Series. The estimated associations for each prefecture were pooled at the nationwide level using a random-effects meta-analysis. In total, 666,020 OHCAs of presumed cardiac origin were reported during the study period. On days of Japan Series matches, the pooled relative risk of OHCA was 1.033 (95% confidence interval 1.012 to 1.055; p = 0.002; I² = 3.5%, P for heterogeneity = 0.405). Stratified analyses by gender revealed that the substantial increase in OHCA during the events was observed for men, whereas we found no significant increase for women. We also found a considerable rise in OHCA among patients aged ≥65 years; however, there was no significant evidence of increased risk in those aged 18 to 64 years. In conclusion, stressful baseball match is associated with an increased risk of OHCA. Prevention measures for severe emotional stress-related OHCA should be implemented, particularly for elderly men.

Psychological assessment of acute schizophrenia patients who experienced seclusion either alone or in combination with restraint

Objective Numerous studies on the effects of seclusion and/or restraint in acute psychiatric treatment have reported both positive and negative effects. However, no studies to date have evaluated the effects of seclusion and/or restraint on schizophrenia patients using a rating scale. Thus, to examine the effects of seclusion and/or restraint on schizophrenia patients, we used the Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale and assessed the psychological condition of patients. Methods Factor analysis was conducted to create subscales of Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale, and psychiatric changes were assessed with respect to each subscale using multiple logistic regression analyses. Analyses were performed on three groups (i.e. entire, higher functioning, and lower functioning groups) involving a total of 1559 schizophrenia patients aged 18 to 65 years. Results In the entire and lower functioning groups, seclusion was a significant predictor of improvements related to the "hostility/suspiciousness" subscale. Seclusion combined with restraint was associated with improvements related to the "psychosis/thinking disorder" subscale. In the higher functioning group, there were no significant predictors. Conclusions It is implied that seclusion and/or restraint is related to improved psychiatric symptoms only among patients whose functioning is impaired. To verify the present findings, further studies involving multiple sites and additional psychiatric measures are necessary.