Dietary factors and patterns in relation to risk of later-onset ulcerative colitis in Chinese: A prospective study of 0.5 million people

BACKGROUND

There is limited evidence on the associations of dietary factors and patterns with risk of later-onset ulcerative colitis (UC) in Chinese adults.

AIMS

To investigate the associations of dietary factors and patterns with risk of later-onset UC in Chinese.

METHODS

The prospective China Kadoorie Biobank cohort study recruited 512,726 participants aged 30-79. Dietary habits were assessed using food frequency questionnaires. Dietary patterns were derived by factor analysis with a principal component method. Cox regression analysis was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 12.1 years, 312 cases of newly diagnosed UC were documented (median age of diagnosis 60.1 years). Egg consumption was associated with higher risk of UC (HR for daily vs. never or rarely: 2.29 [95% CI: 1.26-4.16]), while spicy food consumption was inversely associated with risk of UC (HR: 0.63 [0.45-0.88]). The traditional northern dietary pattern, characterised by high intake of wheat and low intake of rice, was associated with higher risk of UC (HR for highest vs. lowest quartile of score: 2.79 [1.93-4.05]). The modern dietary pattern, characterised by high intake of animal-origin foods and fruits, was associated with higher risk of UC (HR: 2.48 [1.63-3.78]). Population attributable fraction was 13.04% (7.71%-19.11%) for daily/almost daily consumption of eggs and 9.87% (1.94%-18.22%) for never/rarely consumption of spicy food.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings highlight the importance of evaluating dietary factors and patterns in the primary prevention of later-onset UC in Chinese adults.

Proteomic Analyses in Diverse Populations Improved Risk Prediction and Identified New Drug Targets for Type 2 Diabetes

OBJECTIVE

Integrated analyses of plasma proteomics and genetic data in prospective studies can help assess the causal relevance of proteins, improve risk prediction, and discover novel protein drug targets for type 2 diabetes (T2D).

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We measured plasma levels of 2,923 proteins using Olink Explore among ∼2,000 randomly selected participants from China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) without prior diabetes at baseline. Cox regression assessed associations of individual protein with incident T2D (n = 92 cases). Proteomic-based risk models were developed with discrimination, calibration, reclassification assessed using area under the curve (AUC), calibration plots, and net reclassification index (NRI), respectively. Two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses using cis-protein quantitative trait loci identified in a genome-wide association study of CKB and UK Biobank for specific proteins were conducted to assess their causal relevance for T2D, along with colocalization analyses to examine shared causal variants between proteins and T2D.

RESULTS

Overall, 33 proteins were significantly associated (false discovery rate <0.05) with risk of incident T2D, including IGFBP1, GHR, and amylase. The addition of these 33 proteins to a conventional risk prediction model improved AUC from 0.77 (0.73-0.82) to 0.88 (0.85-0.91) and NRI by 38%, with predicted risks well calibrated with observed risks. MR analyses provided support for the causal relevance for T2D of ENTR1, LPL, and PON3, with replication of ENTR1 and LPL in Europeans using different genetic instruments. Moreover, colocalization analyses showed strong evidence (pH4 > 0.6) of shared genetic variants of LPL and PON3 with T2D.

CONCLUSIONS

Proteomic analyses in Chinese adults identified novel associations of multiple proteins with T2D with strong genetic evidence supporting their causal relevance and potential as novel drug targets for prevention and treatment of T2D.

Predictive value of 8-year blood pressure measures in intracerebral hemorrhage risk over 5 years

AIMS

The relationships between long-term blood pressure (BP) measures and intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), as well as their predictive ability on ICH, were unclear. We aimed to investigate the independent associations of multiple BP measures with subsequent 5-year ICH risk, as well as the incremental value of these measures over a single-point BP measurement in ICH risk prediction.

METHODS

We included 12,398 participants from the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) who completed three surveys every four to five years. The following long-term BP measures were calculated: mean, minimum, maximum, standard deviation, coefficient of variation, average real variability, and cumulative BP exposure (cumBP). Cox proportional hazard models were used to examine the associations between these measures and ICH. The potential incremental value of these measures in ICH risk prediction was assessed using Harrell's C statistics, continuous net reclassification improvement (cNRI), and relative integrated discrimination improvement (rIDI).

RESULTS

The hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) of incident ICH associated with per SD increase in cumSBP and cumDBP were 1.62 (1.25, 2.10) and 1.59 (1.23, 2.07), respectively. When cumBP was added to the conventional 5-year ICH risk prediction model, the C-statistic change was 0.009 (-0.001, 0.019), the cNRI was 0.267 (0.070, 0.464), and the rIDI was 18.2% (5.8%, 30.7%). Further subgroup analyses revealed a consistent increase in cNRI and rIDI in men, rural residents, and participants without diabetes. Other long-term BP measures showed no statistically significant associations with incident ICH and generally did not improve model performance.

CONCLUSION

The nearly 10-year cumBP was positively associated with an increased 5-year risk of ICH and could significantly improve risk reclassification for the ICH risk prediction model that included single-point BP measurement.

Association between health insurance cost-sharing and choice of hospital tier for cardiovascular diseases in China: a prospective cohort study

Background

Hospitals in China are classified into tiers (1, 2 or 3), with the largest (tier 3) having more equipment and specialist staff. Differential health insurance cost-sharing by hospital tier (lower deductibles and higher reimbursement rates in lower tiers) was introduced to reduce overcrowding in higher tier hospitals, promote use of lower tier hospitals, and limit escalating healthcare costs. However, little is known about the effects of differential cost-sharing in health insurance schemes on choice of hospital tiers.

Methods

In a 9-year follow-up of a prospective study of 0.5 M adults from 10 areas in China, we examined the associations between differential health insurance cost-sharing and choice of hospital tiers for patients with a first hospitalisation for stroke or ischaemic heart disease (IHD) in 2009-2017. Analyses were performed separately in urban areas (stroke: n = 20,302; IHD: n = 19,283) and rural areas (stroke: n = 21,130; IHD: n = 17,890), using conditional logit models and adjusting for individual socioeconomic and health characteristics.

Findings

About 64-68% of stroke and IHD cases in urban areas and 27-29% in rural areas chose tier 3 hospitals. In urban areas, higher reimbursement rates in each tier and lower tier 3 deductibles were associated with a greater likelihood of choosing their respective hospital tiers. In rural areas, the effects of cost-sharing were modest, suggesting a greater contribution of other factors. Higher socioeconomic status and greater disease severity were associated with a greater likelihood of seeking care in higher tier hospitals in urban and rural areas.

Interpretation

Patient choice of hospital tiers for treatment of stroke and IHD in China was influenced by differential cost-sharing in urban areas, but not in rural areas. Further strategies are required to incentivise appropriate health seeking behaviour and promote more efficient hospital use.

Funding

Wellcome Trust, Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, Kadoorie Charitable Foundation, China Ministry of Science and Technology, and National Natural Science Foundation of China.

Reproductive factors and risk of lung cancer among 300,000 Chinese female never-smokers: evidence from the China Kadoorie Biobank study

BACKGROUND

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer mortality among Chinese females despite the low smoking prevalence among this population. This study assessed the roles of reproductive factors in lung cancer development among Chinese female never-smokers.

METHODS

The prospective China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) recruited over 0.5 million Chinese adults (0.3 million females) from 10 geographical areas in China in 2004-2008 when information on socio-demographic/lifestyle/environmental factors, physical measurements, medical history, and reproductive history collected through interviewer-administered questionnaires. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of lung cancer by reproductive factors. Subgroup analyses by menopausal status, birth year, and geographical region were performed.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 11 years, 2,284 incident lung cancers occurred among 282,558 female never-smokers. Ever oral contraceptive use was associated with a higher risk of lung cancer (HR = 1.16, 95% CI: 1.02-1.33) with a significant increasing trend associated with longer duration of use (p-trend = 0.03). Longer average breastfeeding duration per child was associated with a decreased risk (0.86, 0.78-0.95) for > 12 months compared with those who breastfed for 7-12 months. No statistically significant association was detected between other reproductive factors and lung cancer risk.

CONCLUSION

Oral contraceptive use was associated with an increased risk of lung cancer in Chinese female never-smokers. Further studies are needed to assess lung cancer risk related to different types of oral contraceptives in similar populations.

Causal association between snoring and stroke: a Mendelian randomization study in a Chinese population

Background

Previous observational studies established a positive relationship between snoring and stroke. We aimed to investigate the causal effect of snoring on stroke.

Methods

Based on 82,339 unrelated individuals with qualified genotyping data of Asian descent from the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB), we conducted a Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis of snoring and stroke. Genetic variants identified in the genome-wide association analysis (GWAS) of snoring in CKB and UK Biobank (UKB) were selected for constructing genetic risk scores (GRS). A two-stage method was applied to estimate the associations of the genetically predicted snoring with stroke and its subtypes. Besides, MR analysis among the non-obese group (body mass index, BMI <24.0 kg/m2), as well as multivariable MR (MVMR), were performed to control for potential pleiotropy from BMI. In addition, the inverse-variance weighted (IVW) method was applied to estimate the causal association with genetic variants identified in CKB GWAS.

Findings

Positive associations were found between snoring and total stroke, hemorrhagic stroke (HS), and ischemic stroke (IS). With GRS of CKB, the corresponding HRs (95% CIs) were 1.56 (1.15, 2.12), 1.50 (0.84, 2.69), 2.02 (1.36, 3.01), and the corresponding HRs (95% CIs) using GRS of UKB were 1.78 (1.30, 2.43), 1.94 (1.07, 3.52), and 1.74 (1.16, 2.61). The associations remained stable in the MR among the non-obese group, MVMR analysis, and MR analysis using the IVW method.

Interpretation

This study suggests that, among Chinese adults, genetically predicted snoring could increase the risk of total stroke, IS, and HS, and the causal effect was independent of BMI.

Funding

National Natural Science Foundation of China, Kadoorie Charitable Foundation Hong Kong, UK Wellcome Trust, National Key R&D Program of China, Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology.

A wide landscape of morbidity and mortality risk associated with marital status in 0.5 million Chinese men and women: a prospective cohort study

Background

A comprehensive depiction of long-term health impacts of marital status is lacking.

Methods

Sex-stratified phenome-wide association analyses (PheWAS) of marital status (living with vs. without a spouse) were performed using baseline (2004-2008) and follow-up information (ICD10-coded events till Dec 31, 2017) from the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB). We estimated adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) to evaluate the associations of marital status with morbidity risks of phenome-wide significant diseases or sex-specific top-10 death causes in China documented in 2017. Additionally, the association between marital status and mortality risks among participants with major chronic diseases at baseline was assessed.

Findings

During up to 11.1 years of the median follow-up period, 1,946,380 incident health events were recorded among 210,202 men and 302,521 women aged 30-79. Marital status was found to have phenome-wide significant associations with thirteen diseases among men (p < 9.92 × 10-5) and nine diseases among women (p < 9.33 × 10-5), respectively. After adjusting for all disease-specific covariates in the final model, participants living without a spouse showed increased risks of schizophrenia, schizotypal and delusional disorders (aHR [95% CI]: 2.55, [1.83-3.56] for men; 1.49, [1.13-1.97] for women) compared with their counterparts. Additional higher risks in overall mental and behavioural disorder (1.31, 1.13-1.53), cardiovascular disease (1.07, 1.04-1.10) and cancer (1.06, 1.00-1.12) were only observed among men without a spouse, whereas women living without a spouse were at lower risks of developing genitourinary diseases (0.89, 0.85-0.93) and injury & poisoning (0.93, 0.88-0.97). Among 282,810 participants with major chronic diseases at baseline, 39,166 deaths were recorded. Increased mortality risks for those without a spouse were observed in 12 of 21 diseases among male patients and one of 23 among female patients. For patients with any self-reported disease at baseline, compared with those living with a spouse, the aHRs (95% CIs) of mortality risk were 1.29 (1.24-1.34) and 1.04 (1.00-1.07) among men and women without a spouse (pinteraction<0.0001), respectively.

Interpretation

Long-term associations of marital status with morbidity and mortality risks are diverse among middle-aged Chinese adults, and the adverse impacts due to living without a spouse are more profound among men. Marital status may be an influential factor for health needs.

Funding

The National Natural Science Foundation of China, the Kadoorie Charitable Foundation, the National Key R&D Program of China, the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology, and the UK Wellcome Trust.

Alcohol intake and cause-specific mortality: conventional and genetic evidence in a prospective cohort study of 512 000 adults in China

BACKGROUND

Genetic variants that affect alcohol use in East Asian populations could help assess the causal effects of alcohol consumption on cause-specific mortality. We aimed to investigate the associations between alcohol intake and cause-specific mortality using conventional and genetic epidemiological methods among more than 512 000 adults in China.

METHODS

The prospective China Kadoorie Biobank cohort study enrolled 512 724 adults (210 205 men and 302 519 women) aged 30-79 years, during 2004-08. Residents with no major disabilities from ten diverse urban and rural areas of China were invited to participate, and alcohol use was self-reported. During 12 years of follow-up, 56 550 deaths were recorded through linkage to death registries, including 23 457 deaths among 168 050 participants genotyped for ALDH2-rs671 and ADH1B-rs1229984. Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for cause-specific mortality by self-reported and genotype-predicted alcohol intake were estimated using Cox regression.

FINDINGS

33% of men drank alcohol most weeks. In conventional observational analyses, ex-drinkers, non-drinkers, and heavy drinkers had higher risks of death from most major causes than moderate drinkers. Among current drinkers, each 100 g/week higher alcohol intake was associated with higher mortality risks from cancers (HR 1·18 [95% CI 1·14-1·22]), cardiovascular disease (CVD; HR 1·19 [1·15-1·24]), liver diseases (HR 1·51 [1·27-1·78]), non-medical causes (HR 1·15 [1·08-1·23]), and all causes (HR 1·18 [1·15-1·20]). In men, ALDH2-rs671 and ADH1B-rs1229984 genotypes predicted 60-fold differences in mean alcohol intake (4 g/week in the lowest group vs 255 g/week in the highest). Genotype-predicted alcohol intake was uniformly and positively associated with risks of death from all causes (n=12 939; HR 1·07 [95% CI 1·05-1·10]) and from pre-defined alcohol-related cancers (n=1274; 1·12 [1·04-1·21]), liver diseases (n=110; 1·31 [1·02-1·69]), and CVD (n=6109; 1·15 [1·10-1·19]), chiefly due to stroke (n=3285; 1·18 [1·12-1·24]) rather than ischaemic heart disease (n=2363; 1·06 [0·99-1·14]). Results were largely consistent using a polygenic score to predict alcohol intake, with higher intakes associated with higher risks of death from alcohol-related cancers, CVD, and all causes. Approximately 2% of women were current drinkers, and although power was low to assess observational associations of alcohol with mortality, the genetic evidence suggested that the excess risks in men were due to alcohol, not pleiotropy.

INTERPRETATION

Higher alcohol intake increased the risks of death overall and from major diseases for men in China. There was no genetic evidence of protection from moderate drinking for all-cause and cause-specific mortality, including CVD.

FUNDING

Kadoorie Charitable Foundation, National Natural Science Foundation of China, British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, GlaxoSmithKline, Wellcome Trust, Medical Research Council, and Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology.

Chronic Hepatitis B Virus Infection and Risk of Stroke Types: A Prospective Cohort Study of 500 000 Chinese Adults

BACKGROUND

Stroke is a leading cause of mortality and permanent disability in China, with large and unexplained geographic variations in rates of different stroke types. Chronic hepatitis B virus infection is prevalent among Chinese adults and may play a role in stroke cause.

METHODS

The prospective China Kadoorie Biobank included >500 000 adults aged 30 to 79 years who were recruited from 10 (5 urban and 5 rural) geographically diverse areas of China from 2004 to 2008, with determination of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) positivity at baseline. During 11 years of follow-up, a total of 59 117 incident stroke cases occurred, including 11 318 intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), 49 971 ischemic stroke, 995 subarachnoid hemorrhage, and 3036 other/unspecified stroke. Cox regression models were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for risk of stroke types associated with HBsAg positivity. In a subset of 17 833 participants, liver enzymes and lipids levels were measured and compared by HBsAg status.

RESULTS

Overall, 3.0% of participants were positive for HBsAg. HBsAg positivity was associated with an increased risk of ICH (adjusted HR, 1.29 [95% CI, 1.16-1.44]), similarly for fatal (n=5982; adjusted HR, 1.36 [95% CI, 1.16-1.59]) and nonfatal (n=5336; adjusted HR, 1.23 [95% CI, 1.06-1.44]) ICH. There were no significant associations of HBsAg positivity with risks of ischemic stroke (adjusted HR, 0.97 [95% CI, 0.92-1.03]), subarachnoid hemorrhage (adjusted HR, 0.87 [95% CI, 0.57-1.33]), or other/unspecified stroke (adjusted HR, 1.12 [95% CI, 0.89-1.42]). Compared with HBsAg-negative counterparts, HBsAg-positive individuals had lower lipid and albumin levels and higher liver enzyme levels. After adjustment for liver enzymes and albumin, the association with ICH from HBsAg positivity attenuated to 1.15 (0.90-1.48), suggesting possible mediation by abnormal liver function.

CONCLUSIONS

Among Chinese adults, chronic hepatitis B virus infection is associated with an increased risk of ICH but not other stroke types, which may be mediated through liver dysfunction and altered lipid metabolism.

Plasma Proteomics to Identify Drug Targets for Ischemic Heart Disease

BACKGROUND

Integrated analyses of plasma proteomic and genetic markers in prospective studies can clarify the causal relevance of proteins and discover novel targets for ischemic heart disease (IHD) and other diseases.

OBJECTIVES

The purpose of this study was to examine associations of proteomics and genetics data with IHD in population studies to discover novel preventive treatments.

METHODS

We conducted a nested case-cohort study in the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) involving 1,971 incident IHD cases and 2,001 subcohort participants who were genotyped and free of prior cardiovascular disease. We measured 1,463 proteins in the stored baseline samples using the OLINK EXPLORE panel. Cox regression yielded adjusted HRs for IHD associated with individual proteins after accounting for multiple testing. Moreover, cis-protein quantitative loci (pQTLs) identified for proteins in genome-wide association studies of CKB and of UK Biobank were used as instrumental variables in separate 2-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) studies involving global CARDIOGRAM+C4D consortium (210,842 IHD cases and 1,378,170 controls).

RESULTS

Overall 361 proteins were significantly associated at false discovery rate <0.05 with risk of IHD (349 positively, 12 inversely) in CKB, including N-terminal prohormone of brain natriuretic peptide and proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9. Of these 361 proteins, 212 had cis-pQTLs in CKB, and MR analyses of 198 variants in CARDIOGRAM+C4D identified 13 proteins that showed potentially causal associations with IHD. Independent MR analyses of 307 cis-pQTLs identified in Europeans replicated associations for 4 proteins (FURIN, proteinase-activated receptor-1, Asialoglycoprotein receptor-1, and matrix metalloproteinase-3). Further downstream analyses showed that FURIN, which is highly expressed in endothelial cells, is a potential novel target and matrix metalloproteinase-3 a potential repurposing target for IHD.

CONCLUSIONS

Integrated analyses of proteomic and genetic data in Chinese and European adults provided causal support for FURIN and multiple other proteins as potential novel drug targets for treatment of IHD.

Genetic influences on alcohol flushing in East Asian populations

BACKGROUND

Although it is known that variation in the aldehyde dehydrogenase 2 (ALDH2) gene family influences the East Asian alcohol flushing response, knowledge about other genetic variants that affect flushing symptoms is limited.

METHODS

We performed a genome-wide association study meta-analysis and heritability analysis of alcohol flushing in 15,105 males of East Asian ancestry (Koreans and Chinese) to identify genetic associations with alcohol flushing. We also evaluated whether self-reported flushing can be used as an instrumental variable for alcohol intake.

RESULTS

We identified variants in the region of ALDH2 strongly associated with alcohol flushing, replicating previous studies conducted in East Asian populations. Additionally, we identified variants in the alcohol dehydrogenase 1B (ADH1B) gene region associated with alcohol flushing. Several novel variants were identified after adjustment for the lead variants (ALDH2-rs671 and ADH1B-rs1229984), which need to be confirmed in larger studies. The estimated SNP-heritability on the liability scale was 13% (S.E. = 4%) for flushing, but the heritability estimate decreased to 6% (S.E. = 4%) when the effects of the lead variants were controlled for. Genetic instrumentation of higher alcohol intake using these variants recapitulated known associations of alcohol intake with hypertension. Using self-reported alcohol flushing as an instrument gave a similar association pattern of higher alcohol intake and cardiovascular disease-related traits (e.g. stroke).

CONCLUSION

This study confirms that ALDH2-rs671 and ADH1B-rs1229984 are associated with alcohol flushing in East Asian populations. Our findings also suggest that self-reported alcohol flushing can be used as an instrumental variable in future studies of alcohol consumption.

Genome-wide polygenic risk score, cardiometabolic risk factors, and type 2 diabetes mellitus in the Chinese population

OBJECTIVE

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is caused by both genetic and cardiometabolic risk factors. However, the magnitude of the genetic predisposition of T2D in the Chinese population remains largely unknown.

METHODS

This study included 93,488 participants from the China Kadoorie Biobank, and multiple polygenic risk scores (PRS) were calculated. A common cardiometabolic risk score (CRS) using smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity, diet, obesity, blood pressure, and blood lipids was constructed to investigate the effects of cardiometabolic risk factors on T2D. Furthermore, an equation based on ideal PRS, CRS, and their interaction was established to explore the combined effects on T2D.

RESULTS

An ideally fitting PRS model (variance explained, R2  = 7.6%) was reached based on multiple PRS calculation methods. An additive interaction between PRS and CRS (coefficient = 28%, 95% CI: 0.20-0.36, p < 0.001) was found. The R2 of the T2D predictive model could increase to 8.3% when CRS and the interaction terms of PRS × CRS were considered. In the etiological composition of T2D, the ratio of genetic risk effect, cardiometabolic risk effect, and interaction between genetic and cardiometabolic factors was 67:16:17.

CONCLUSIONS

This study identified an ideally fitting PRS model for identifying and predicting the risk of T2D suitable for the Chinese population. The quantified proportional structure of genetic risk factors, cardiometabolic risk factors, and their interaction was detected, which elucidated the critical effect of genetic factors.

Conventional and genetic associations of adiposity with 1463 proteins in relatively lean Chinese adults

Adiposity is associated with multiple diseases and traits, but little is known about the causal relevance and mechanisms underlying these associations. Large-scale proteomic profiling, especially when integrated with genetic data, can clarify mechanisms linking adiposity with disease outcomes. We examined the associations of adiposity with plasma levels of 1463 proteins in 3977 Chinese adults, using measured and genetically-instrumented BMI. We further used two-sample bi-directional MR analyses to assess if certain proteins influenced adiposity, along with other (e.g. enrichment) analyses to clarify possible mechanisms underlying the observed associations. Overall, the mean (SD) baseline BMI was 23.9 (3.3) kg/m2, with only 6% being obese (i.e. BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2). Measured and genetically-instrumented BMI was significantly associated at FDR < 0.05 with levels of 1096 (positive/inverse: 826/270) and 307 (positive/inverse: 270/37) proteins, respectively, with FABP4, LEP, IL1RN, LSP1, GOLM2, TNFRSF6B, and ADAMTS15 showing the strongest positive and PON3, NCAN, LEPR, IGFBP2 and MOG showing the strongest inverse genetic associations. These associations were largely linear, in adiposity-to-protein direction, and replicated (> 90%) in Europeans of UKB (mean BMI 27.4 kg/m2). Enrichment analyses of the top > 50 BMI-associated proteins demonstrated their involvement in atherosclerosis, lipid metabolism, tumour progression and inflammation. Two-sample bi-directional MR analyses using cis-pQTLs identified in CKB GWAS found eight proteins (ITIH3, LRP11, SCAMP3, NUDT5, OGN, EFEMP1, TXNDC15, PRDX6) significantly affect levels of BMI, with NUDT5 also showing bi-directional association. The findings among relatively lean Chinese adults identified novel pathways by which adiposity may increase disease risks and novel potential targets for treatment of obesity and obesity-related diseases.

Associations of polygenic risk scores with risks of stroke and its subtypes in Chinese

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Previous studies, mostly focusing on the European population, have reported polygenic risk scores (PRSs) might achieve risk stratification of stroke. We aimed to examine the association strengths of PRSs with risks of stroke and its subtypes in the Chinese population.

METHODS

Participants with genome-wide genotypic data in China Kadoorie Biobank were split into a potential training set (n=22 191) and a population-based testing set (n=72 150). Four previously developed PRSs were included, and new PRSs for stroke and its subtypes were developed. The PRSs showing the strongest association with risks of stroke or its subtypes in the training set were further evaluated in the testing set. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate the association strengths of different PRSs with risks of stroke and its subtypes (ischaemic stroke (IS), intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH) and subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH)).

RESULTS

In the testing set, during 872 919 person-years of follow-up, 8514 incident stroke events were documented. The PRSs of any stroke (AS) and IS were both positively associated with risks of AS, IS and ICH (p<0.05). The HR for per SD increment (HRSD) of PRSAS was 1.10 (95% CI 1.07 to 1.12), 1.10 (95% CI 1.07 to 1.12) and 1.13 (95% CI 1.07 to 1.20) for AS, IS and ICH, respectively. The corresponding HRSD of PRSIS was 1.08 (95% CI 1.06 to 1.11), 1.08 (95% CI 1.06 to 1.11) and 1.09 (95% CI 1.03 to 1.15). PRSICH was positively associated with the risk of ICH (HRSD=1.07, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.14). PRSSAH was not associated with risks of stroke and its subtypes. The addition of current PRSs offered little to no improvement in stroke risk prediction and risk stratification.

CONCLUSIONS

In this Chinese population, the association strengths of current PRSs with risks of stroke and its subtypes were moderate, suggesting a limited value for improving risk prediction over traditional risk factors in the context of current genome-wide association study under-representing the East Asian population.

Genotyping and population characteristics of the China Kadoorie Biobank

The China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) is a population-based prospective cohort of >512,000 adults recruited from 2004 to 2008 from 10 geographically diverse regions across China. Detailed data from questionnaires and physical measurements were collected at baseline, with additional measurements at three resurveys involving ∼5% of surviving participants. Analyses of genome-wide genotyping, for >100,000 participants using custom-designed Axiom arrays, reveal extensive relatedness, recent consanguinity, and signatures reflecting large-scale population movements from recent Chinese history. Systematic genome-wide association studies of incident disease, captured through electronic linkage to death and disease registries and to the national health insurance system, replicate established disease loci and identify 14 novel disease associations. Together with studies of candidate drug targets and disease risk factors and contributions to international genetics consortia, these demonstrate the breadth, depth, and quality of the CKB data. Ongoing high-throughput omics assays of collected biosamples and planned whole-genome sequencing will further enhance the scientific value of this biobank.

Helicobacter pylori multiplex serology and risk of non-cardia and cardia gastric cancer: a case-cohort study and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Helicobacter pylori infection is a major cause of non-cardia gastric cancer (NCGC), but uncertainty remains about the associations between sero-positivity to different H. pylori antigens and risk of NCGC and cardia gastric cancer (CGC) in different populations.

METHODS

A case-cohort study in China included ∼500 each of incident NCGC and CGC cases and ∼2000 subcohort participants. Sero-positivity to 12 H. pylori antigens was measured in baseline plasma samples using a multiplex assay. Hazard ratios (HRs) of NCGC and CGC for each marker were estimated using Cox regression. These were further meta-analysed with studies using same assay.

RESULTS

In the subcohort, sero-positivity for 12 H. pylori antigens varied from 11.4% (HpaA) to 70.8% (CagA). Overall, 10 antigens showed significant associations with risk of NCGC (adjusted HRs: 1.33 to 4.15), and four antigens with CGC (HRs: 1.50 to 2.34). After simultaneous adjustment for other antigens, positive associations remained significant for NCGC (CagA, HP1564, HP0305) and CGC (CagA, HP1564, HyuA). Compared with CagA sero-positive only individuals, those who were positive for all three antigens had an adjusted HR of 5.59 (95% CI 4.68-6.66) for NCGC and 2.17 (95% CI 1.54-3.05) for CGC. In the meta-analysis of NCGC, the pooled relative risk for CagA was 2.96 (95% CI 2.58-3.41) [Europeans: 5.32 (95% CI 4.05-6.99); Asians: 2.41 (95% CI 2.05-2.83); Pheterogeneity<0.0001]. Similar pronounced population differences were also evident for GroEL, HP1564, HcpC and HP0305. In meta-analyses of CGC, two antigens (CagA, HP1564) were significantly associated with a higher risk in Asians but not Europeans.

CONCLUSIONS

Sero-positivity to several H. pylori antigens was significantly associated with an increased risk of NCGC and CGC, with varying effects between Asian and European populations.

Associations of alcohol intake with subclinical carotid atherosclerosis in 22,000 Chinese adults

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

We investigated the causal relevance of alcohol intake with measures of carotid artery thickness and atherosclerosis in Chinese adults.

METHODS

The study included 22,384 adults from the China Kadoorie Biobank, with self-reported alcohol use at baseline and resurvey, carotid artery ultrasound measurements, and genotyping data for ALDH2-rs671 and ADH1B-rs1229984. Associations of carotid intima media thickness (cIMT), any carotid plaque, and total plaque burden (derived from plaque number and size) with self-reported (conventional analyses) and genotype-predicted mean alcohol intake (Mendelian randomization) were assessed using linear and logistic regression models.

RESULTS

Overall 34.2% men and 2.1% women drank alcohol regularly at baseline. Mean cIMT was 0.70 mm in men and 0.64 mm in women, with 39.1% and 26.5% having carotid plaque, respectively. Among men, cIMT was not associated with self-reported or genotype-predicted mean alcohol intake. The risk of plaque increased significantly with self-reported intake among current drinkers (odds ratio 1.42 [95% CI 1.14-1.76] per 280 g/week), with directionally consistent findings with genotype-predicted mean intake (1.21 [0.99-1.49]). Higher alcohol intake was significantly associated with higher carotid plaque burden in both conventional (0.19 [0.10-0.28] mm higher per 280 g/week) and genetic analyses (0.09 [0.02-0.17]). Genetic findings in women suggested the association of genotype-predicted alcohol with carotid plaque burden in men was likely to due to alcohol itself, rather than pleiotropic genotypic effects.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher alcohol intake was associated with a higher carotid plaque burden, but not with cIMT, providing support for a potential causal association of alcohol intake with carotid atherosclerosis.

Long-Term Exposure to Fine Particulate Matter and Incidence of Esophageal Cancer: A Prospective Study of 0.5 Million Chinese Adults

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Evidence is sparse and inconclusive on the association between long-term fine (≤2.5 μm) particulate matter (PM2.5) exposure and esophageal cancer. We aimed to assess the association of PM2.5 with esophageal cancer risk and compared the esophageal cancer risk attributable to PM2.5 exposure and other established risk factors.

METHODS

This study included 510,125 participants without esophageal cancer at baseline from China Kadoorie Biobank. A high-resolution (1 × 1 km) satellite-based model was used to estimate PM2.5 exposure during the study period. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% CIs of PM2.5 with esophageal cancer incidence were estimated using Cox proportional hazard model. Population attributable fractions for PM2.5 and other established risk factors were estimated.

RESULTS

There was a linear concentration-response relationship between long-term PM2.5 exposure and esophageal cancer. For each 10-μg/m3 increase in PM2.5, the HR was 1.16 (95% CI, 1.04-1.30) for esophageal cancer incidence. Compared with the first quarter of PM2.5 exposure, participants in the highest quarter had a 1.32-fold higher risk for esophageal cancer, with an HR of 1.32 (95% CI, 1.01-1.72). The population attributable risk because of annual average PM2.5 concentration ≥35 μg/m3 was 23.3% (95% CI, 6.6%-40.0%), higher than the risks attributable to lifestyle risk factors.

CONCLUSIONS

This large prospective cohort study of Chinese adults found that long-term exposure to PM2.5 was associated with an elevated risk of esophageal cancer. With stringent air pollution mitigation measures in China, a large reduction in the esophageal cancer disease burden can be expected.

Duration-dependent impact of cardiometabolic diseases and multimorbidity on all-cause and cause-specific mortality: a prospective cohort study of 0.5 million participants

BACKGROUND

The association of incident cardiometabolic multimorbidity (CMM) with mortality risk is rarely studied, and neither are the durations of cardiometabolic diseases (CMDs). Whether the association patterns of CMD durations with mortality change as individuals progress from one CMD to CMM is unclear.

METHODS

Data from China Kadoorie Biobank of 512,720 participants aged 30-79 was used. CMM was defined as the simultaneous presence of two or more CMDs of interest, including diabetes, ischemic heart disease, and stroke. Cox regression was used to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the duration-dependent associations of CMDs and CMM with all-cause and cause-specific mortality. All information on exposures of interest was updated during follow-up.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 12.1 years, 99,770 participants experienced at least one incident CMD, and 56,549 deaths were documented. Among 463,178 participants free of three CMDs at baseline, compared with no CMD during follow-up, the adjusted HRs (95% CIs) between CMM and all-cause mortality, mortality from circulatory system diseases, respiratory system diseases, cancer, and other causes were 2.93 (2.80-3.07), 5.05 (4.74-5.37), 2.72 (2.35-3.14), 1.30 (1.16-1.45), and 2.30 (2.02-2.61), respectively. All CMDs exhibited a high mortality risk in the first year of diagnosis. Subsequently, with prolonged disease duration, mortality risk increased for diabetes, decreased for IHD, and sustained at a high level for stroke. With the presence of CMM, the above association estimates inflated, but the pattern of which remained.

CONCLUSION

Among Chinese adults, mortality risk increased with the number of the CMDs and changed with prolonged disease duration, the patterns of which varied among the three CMDs.

Alcohol consumption and risks of more than 200 diseases in Chinese men

Alcohol consumption accounts for ~3 million annual deaths worldwide, but uncertainty persists about its relationships with many diseases. We investigated the associations of alcohol consumption with 207 diseases in the 12-year China Kadoorie Biobank of >512,000 adults (41% men), including 168,050 genotyped for ALDH2- rs671 and ADH1B- rs1229984 , with >1.1 million ICD-10 coded hospitalized events. At baseline, 33% of men drank alcohol regularly. Among men, alcohol intake was positively associated with 61 diseases, including 33 not defined by the World Health Organization as alcohol-related, such as cataract (n = 2,028; hazard ratio 1.21; 95% confidence interval 1.09-1.33, per 280 g per week) and gout (n = 402; 1.57, 1.33-1.86). Genotype-predicted mean alcohol intake was positively associated with established (n = 28,564; 1.14, 1.09-1.20) and new alcohol-associated (n = 16,138; 1.06, 1.01-1.12) diseases, and with specific diseases such as liver cirrhosis (n = 499; 2.30, 1.58-3.35), stroke (n = 12,176; 1.38, 1.27-1.49) and gout (n = 338; 2.33, 1.49-3.62), but not ischemic heart disease (n = 8,408; 1.04, 0.94-1.14). Among women, 2% drank alcohol resulting in low power to assess associations of self-reported alcohol intake with disease risks, but genetic findings in women suggested the excess male risks were not due to pleiotropic genotypic effects. Among Chinese men, alcohol consumption increased multiple disease risks, highlighting the need to strengthen preventive measures to reduce alcohol intake.

Association of dietary patterns, circulating lipid profile, and risk of obesity

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to simultaneously explore the associations of major dietary patterns (DP) with lipid profiles and the associations of these profiles with general and central obesity risks and to evaluate the extent to which the metabolites mediate such associations.

METHODS

Habitual food consumption of 4778 participants with an average age of 47.0 from the China Kadoorie Biobank was collected using a 12-item food frequency questionnaire. Plasma samples were analyzed via targeted nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy to quantify 129 lipid-related metabolites. Anthropometric information was measured by trained staff.

RESULTS

Two DPs were derived by factor analysis. The newly affluent southern pattern was characterized by high intakes of rice, meat, poultry, and fish, whereas the balanced pattern was characterized by consuming meat, poultry, fish, fresh fruit, fresh vegetables, dairy, eggs, and soybean. The newly affluent southern pattern was positively associated with 45 metabolites, which were positively associated with risks of obesity at the same time. The global lipid profile potentially explained 30.9%, 34.7%, and 53.1% of the effects of this DP on general obesity, waist circumference-defined central obesity, and waist-hip ratio-defined central obesity, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The newly affluent southern pattern points to an altered lipid profile, which showed higher general and central obesity risks. These findings partly suggest the biological mechanism for the obesogenic effects of this DP.

Healthy lifestyle, DNA methylation age acceleration, and incident risk of coronary heart disease

BACKGROUND

DNA methylation clocks emerged as a tool to determine biological aging and have been related to mortality and age-related diseases. Little is known about the association of DNA methylation age (DNAm age) with coronary heart disease (CHD), especially in the Asian population.

RESULTS

Methylation level of baseline blood leukocyte DNA was measured by Infinium Methylation EPIC BeadChip for 491 incident CHD cases and 489 controls in the prospective China Kadoorie Biobank. We calculated the methylation age using a prediction model developed among Chinese. The correlation between chronological age and DNAm age was 0.90. DNA methylation age acceleration (Δage) was defined as the residual of regressing DNA methylation age on the chronological age. After adjustment for multiple risk factors of CHD and cell type proportion, compared with participants in the bottom quartile of Δage, the OR (95% CI) for CHD was 1.84 (1.17, 2.89) for participants in the top quartile. One SD increment in Δage was associated with 30% increased risk of CHD (OR = 1.30; 95% CI 1.09, 1.56; Ptrend = 0.003). The average number of cigarette equivalents consumed per day and waist-to-hip ratio were positively associated with Δage; red meat consumption was negatively associated with Δage, characterized by accelerated aging in those who never or rarely consumed red meat (all P < 0.05). Further mediation analysis revealed that 10%, 5% and 18% of the CHD risk related to smoking, waist-to-hip ratio and never or rarely red meat consumption was mediated through methylation aging, respectively (all P for mediation effect < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

We first identified the association between DNAm age acceleration and incident CHD in the Asian population, and provided evidence that unfavorable lifestyle-induced epigenetic aging may play an important part in the underlying pathway to CHD.

Genetically Predicted Differences in Systolic Blood Pressure and Risk of Cardiovascular and Noncardiovascular Diseases: A Mendelian Randomization Study in Chinese Adults

BACKGROUND

Mendelian randomization studies of systolic blood pressure (SBP) can assess the shape and strength of the associations of genetically predicted differences in SBP with major disease outcomes and are less constrained by biases in observational analyses. This study aimed to compare the associations of usual and genetically predicted SBP with major cardiovascular disease (CVD) outcomes, overall and by levels of SBP, age, and sex.

METHODS

The China Kadoorie Biobank involved a 12-year follow-up of a prospective study of 489 495 adults aged 40 to 79 years with no prior CVD and 86 060 with genetic data. Outcomes included major vascular events (59 490/23 151 in observational/genetic analyses), and its components (ischemic stroke [n=39 513/12 043], intracerebral hemorrhage [7336/5243], and major coronary events [7871/4187]). Genetically predicted SBP used 460 variants obtained from European ancestry genome-wide studies. Cox regression estimated adjusted hazard ratios for incident CVD outcomes down to usual SBP levels of 120 mm Hg.

RESULTS

Both observational and genetic analyses demonstrated log-linear positive associations of SBP with major vascular event and other major CVD types in the range of 120 to 170 mm Hg. Consistent with the observational analyses, the hazard ratios per 10 mm Hg higher genetically predicted SBP were 2-fold greater for intracerebral hemorrhage (1.71 [95% CI, 1.58-1.87]) than for ischemic stroke (1.37 [1.30-1.45]) or major coronary event (1.29 [1.18-1.42]). Genetic analyses also demonstrated 2-fold greater hazard ratios for major vascular event in younger (1.69 [95% CI, 1.54-1.86]) than in older people (1.28 [1.18-1.38]).

CONCLUSIONS

The findings provide support for initiation of blood pressure-lowering treatment at younger ages and below the conventional cut-offs for hypertension to maximize CVD prevention, albeit the absolute risks of CVD are far greater in older people.

Association between pneumonia hospitalisation and long-term risk of cardiovascular disease in Chinese adults: A prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Lower respiratory tract infections, including pneumonia, have been associated with short-term increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, there is only limited evidence about the long-term impact of pneumonia on the cardiovascular system beyond one year.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective matched cohort study based on data from the China Kadoorie Biobank study of 482,017 adults who were enrolled between June 25, 2004, and July 15, 2008, and were free of CVD at baseline and before pneumonia hospitalization. A total of 24,060 patients hospitalised with pneumonia were identified until December 31, 2018, and were matched on age, sex, urban or rural areas, and decile of the frailty index to 223,875 controls. We used the piecewise Cox proportional hazards model to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for pre-specified incident CVD outcomes, including ischaemic heart disease (IHD), arrhythmia, heart failure (HF), ischaemic stroke (IS), and hemorrhagic stroke (HS), at various time intervals through 10 years after pneumonia hospitalization.

FINDINGS

Of the 247,935 pneumonia cases and controls included, the mean age (standard deviation) was 53.5 (10.4), and 40.8% (101,159) were men. During follow-up, 2389 (9.9%) pneumonia cases developed IHD, 489 (2.0%) cases developed arrhythmia, 545 (2.3%) cases developed HF, 1764 (7.3%) cases developed IS, and 348 (1.4%) cases developed HS. After adjustment for sociodemographic characteristics, lifestyle factors, health status and medication, underlying conditions, and family history of CVD, the elevated CVD risk was highest within the first 30 days after pneumonia hospitalisation, with subsequent risk reductions varying by subtypes. The elevated risk remained until the eighth year after pneumonia hospitalisation for IHD, arrhythmia, and HF, with HRs (95% CIs) of 1.48 (1.13-1.93), 2.69 (1.70-4.25), and 4.36 (2.86-6.64), respectively. The risk of stroke associated with pneumonia hospitalisation remained elevated until the seventh year for IS (HR = 1.30; 95% CI: 1.04-1.63), and until the second year for HS (1.39; 1.07-1.80). The above associations were consistently observed across various characteristics of the participants.

INTERPRETATION

In middle-aged and older Chinese adults, pneumonia hospitalisation was associated with short- and long-term CVD risk, with the elevated risk of certain CVD outcomes persisting for up to 8 years.

FUNDING

National Natural Science Foundation of China, the National Key R&D Program of China, the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology, the Kadoorie Charitable Foundation in Hong Kong, the UK Wellcome Trust.

Tobacco smoking and risks of more than 470 diseases in China: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Tobacco smoking is estimated to account for more than 1 million annual deaths in China, and the epidemic continues to increase in men. Large nationwide prospective studies linked to different health records can help to periodically assess disease burden attributed to smoking. We aimed to examine associations of smoking with incidence of and mortality from an extensive range of diseases in China.

METHODS

We analysed data from the prospective China Kadoorie Biobank, which recruited 512 726 adults aged 30-79 years, of whom 210 201 were men and 302 525 were women. Participants who had no major disabilities were identified through local residential records in 100-150 administrative units, which were randomly selected by use of multistage cluster sampling, from each of the ten diverse study areas of China. They were invited and recruited between June 25, 2004, and July 15, 2008. Upon study entry, trained health workers administered a questionnaire assessing detailed smoking behaviours and other key characteristics (eg, sociodemographics, lifestyle, and medical history). Participants were followed up via electronic record linkages to death and disease registries and health insurance databases, from baseline to Jan 1, 2018. During a median 11-year follow-up (IQR 10-12), 285 542 (55·7%) participants were ever hospitalised, 48 869 (9·5%) died, and 5252 (1·0%) were lost to follow-up during the age-at-risk of 35-84 years. Cox regression yielded hazard ratios (HRs) associating smoking with disease incidence and mortality, adjusting for multiple testing.

FINDINGS

At baseline, 74·3% of men and 3·2% of women (overall 32·4%) ever smoked regularly. During follow-up, 1 137 603 International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision (ICD-10)-coded incident events occurred, involving 476 distinct conditions and 85 causes of death, each with at least 100 cases. Compared with never-regular smokers, ever-regular smokers had significantly higher risks for nine of 18 ICD-10 chapters examined at age-at-risk of 35-84 years. For individual conditions, smokers had significantly higher risks of 56 diseases (50 for men and 24 for women) and 22 causes of death (17 for men and nine for women). Among men, ever-regular smokers had an HR of 1·09 (95% CI 1·08-1·11) for any disease incidence when compared with never-regular smokers, and significantly more episodes and longer duration of hospitalisation, particularly those due to cancer and respiratory diseases. For overall mortality, the HRs were greater in men from urban areas than in men from rural areas (1·50 [1·42-1·58] vs 1·25 [1·20-1·30]). Among men from urban areas who began smoking at younger than 18 years, the HRs were 2·06 (1·89-2·24) for overall mortality and 1·32 (1·27-1·37) for any disease incidence. In this population, 19·6% of male (24·3% of men residing in urban settings and 16·2% of men residing in rural settings) and 2·8% of female deaths were attributed to ever-regular smoking.

INTERPRETATION

Among Chinese adults, smoking was associated with higher risks of morbidity and mortality from a wide range of diseases. Among men, the future smoking-attributed disease burden will increase further, highlighting a pressing need for reducing consumption through widespread cessation and uptake prevention.

FUNDING

British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology, Kadoorie Charitable Foundation, UK Medical Research Council, National Natural Science Foundation of China, Wellcome Trust.

Maintaining healthy sleep patterns and frailty transitions: a prospective Chinese study

BACKGROUND

Little is known about the effects of maintaining healthy sleep patterns on frailty transitions.

METHODS

Based on 23,847 Chinese adults aged 30-79 in a prospective cohort study, we examined the associations between sleep patterns and frailty transitions. Healthy sleep patterns included sleep duration at 7 or 8 h/d, without insomnia disorder, and no snoring. Participants who persisted with a healthy sleep pattern in both surveys were defined as maintaining a healthy sleep pattern and scored one point. We used 27 phenotypes to construct a frailty index and defined three statuses: robust, prefrail, and frail. Frailty transitions were defined as the change of frailty status between the 2 surveys: improved, worsened, and remained. Log-binomial regression was used to calculate the prevalence ratio (PR) to assess the effect of sleep patterns on frailty transitions.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 8.0 years among 23,847 adults, 45.5% of robust participants, and 10.8% of prefrail participants worsened their frailty status, while 18.6% of prefrail participants improved. Among robust participants at baseline, individuals who maintained sleep duration of 7 or 8 h/ds, without insomnia disorder, and no-snoring were less likely to worsen their frailty status; the corresponding PRs (95% CIs) were 0.92 (0.89-0.96), 0.76 (0.74-0.77), and 0.85 (0.82-0.88), respectively. Similar results were observed among prefrail participants maintaining healthy sleep patterns. Maintaining healthy sleep duration and without snoring, also raised the probability of improving the frailty status; the corresponding PRs were 1.09 (1.00-1.18) and 1.42 (1.31-1.54), respectively. Besides, a dose-response relationship was observed between constantly healthy sleep scores and the risk of frailty transitions (P for trend < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Maintaining a comprehensive healthy sleep pattern was positively associated with a lower risk of worsening frailty status and a higher probability of improving frailty status among Chinese adults.

External validation of models for predicting risk of colorectal cancer using the China Kadoorie Biobank

BACKGROUND

In China, colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and mortality have been steadily increasing over the last decades. Risk models to predict incident CRC have been developed in various populations, but they have not been systematically externally validated in a Chinese population.  This study aimed to assess the performance of risk scores in predicting CRC using the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB), one of the largest and geographically diverse prospective cohort studies in China.

METHODS

Nine models were externally validated in 512,415 participants in CKB and included 2976 cases of CRC. Model discrimination was assessed, overall and by sex, age, site, and geographic location, using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Model discrimination of these nine models was compared to a model using age alone. Calibration was assessed for five models, and they were re-calibrated in CKB.

RESULTS

The three models with the highest discrimination (Ma (Cox model) AUC 0.70 [95% CI 0.69-0.71]; Aleksandrova 0.70 [0.69-0.71]; Hong 0.69 [0.67-0.71]) included the variables age, smoking, and alcohol. These models performed significantly better than using a model based on age alone (AUC of 0.65 [95% CI 0.64-0.66]). Model discrimination was generally higher in younger participants, males, urban environments, and for colon cancer. The two models (Guo and Chen) developed in Chinese populations did not perform better than the others. Among the 10% of participants with the highest risk, the three best performing models identified 24-26% of participants that went on to develop CRC.

CONCLUSIONS

Several risk models based on easily obtainable demographic and modifiable lifestyle factor have good discrimination in a Chinese population. The three best performing models have a higher discrimination than using a model based on age alone.

The role of NMR-based circulating metabolic biomarkers in development and risk prediction of new onset type 2 diabetes

Associations of circulating metabolic biomarkers with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and their added value for risk prediction are uncertain among Chinese adults. A case-cohort study included 882 T2D cases diagnosed during 8-years' follow-up and a subcohort of 789 participants. NMR-metabolomic profiling quantified 225 plasma biomarkers in stored samples taken at recruitment into the study. Cox regression yielded adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for T2D associated with individual biomarkers, with a set of biomarkers incorporated into an established T2D risk prediction model to assess improvement in discriminatory ability. Mean baseline BMI (SD) was higher in T2D cases than in the subcohort (25.7 [3.6] vs. 23.9 [3.6] kg/m²). Overall, 163 biomarkers were significantly and independently associated with T2D at false discovery rate (FDR) controlled p < 0.05, and 138 at FDR-controlled p < 0.01. Branched chain amino acids (BCAA), apolipoprotein B/apolipoprotein A1, triglycerides in VLDL and medium and small HDL particles, and VLDL particle size were strongly positively associated with T2D (HRs 1.74-2.36 per 1 SD, p < 0.001). HDL particle size, cholesterol concentration in larger HDL particles and docosahexaenoic acid levels were strongly inversely associated with T2D (HRs 0.43-0.48, p < 0.001). With additional adjustment for plasma glucose, most associations (n = 147 and n = 129 at p < 0.05 and p < 0.01, respectively) remained significant. HRs appeared more extreme among more centrally adipose participants for apolipoprotein B/apolipoprotein A1, BCAA, HDL particle size and docosahexaenoic acid (p for heterogeneity ≤ 0.05). Addition of 31 selected biomarkers to an established T2D risk prediction model modestly, but significantly, improved risk discrimination (c-statistic 0.86 to 0.91, p < 0.001). In relatively lean Chinese adults, diverse metabolic biomarkers are associated with future risk of T2D and can help improve established risk prediction models.

Tobacco smoking and solid fuels for cooking and risk of liver cancer: A prospective cohort study of 0.5 million Chinese adults

Previous research found tobacco smoking and solid fuel use for cooking to increase the risk of chronic liver disease mortality, but previous cohort studies have not investigated their independent and joint associations with liver cancer incidence in contemporary China. The China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) study recruited 0.5 million adults aged 30 to 79 years from 10 areas across China during 2004 to 2008. Participants reported detailed smoking and fuel use information at baseline. After an 11.1-year median follow-up via electronic record linkage, we recorded 2997 liver cancer cases. Overall, 29.4% participants were current smokers. Among those who cooked at least once per month, 48.8% always used solid fuels (ie, coal or wood) for cooking. Tobacco smoking and solid fuel use for cooking were independently associated with increased risks of liver cancer, with hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals [CIs]) of 1.28 (1.15-1.42) and 1.25 (1.03-1.52), respectively. The more cigarettes consumed each day, the earlier the age of starting smoking or the longer duration of solid fuels exposure, the higher the risk (Ptrend  < .001, =.001, =.018, respectively). Compared with never smokers who had always used clean fuels (ie, gas or electricity), ever-smokers who had always used solid fuels for cooking had a 67% (95% CIs: 1.29-2.17) higher risk. Among Chinese adults, tobacco smoking and solid fuel use for cooking were independently associated with higher risk of liver cancer incidence. Stronger association was observed with higher number of daily cigarette consumption, the earlier age of starting smoking and longer duration of solid fuel use.

Circulating Metabolites and the Development of Type 2 Diabetes in Chinese Adults

OBJECTIVE

To assess prospective associations of circulating metabolites with the risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D) among Chinese adults.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

A case-cohort study within the 8-year prospective China Kadoorie Biobank comprised 882 participants with incident T2D and 789 subcohort participants. Nuclear magnetic resonance metabolomic profiling quantified 225 metabolites in stored baseline plasma samples. Cox regression related individual metabolites with T2D risk, adjusting for potential confounders and fasting time.

RESULTS

After correction for multiple testing, 163 metabolites were significantly associated with the risk of T2D (P < 0.05). There were strong positive associations of VLDL particle size, the ratio of apolipoprotein B to apolipoprotein A-1, branched-chain amino acids, glucose, and triglycerides with T2D, and inverse associations of HDL-cholesterol, HDL particle size, and relative n-3 and saturated fatty acid concentrations.

CONCLUSIONS

In Chinese adults, metabolites across diverse pathways were independently associated with T2D risk, providing valuable etiological insights and potential to improve T2D risk prediction.

Independent and Joint Associations of Tea Consumption and Smoking with Parkinson's Disease Risk in Chinese Adults

BACKGROUND

Existing limited evidence suggests that smoking and tea consumption may be associated with a lower risk of Parkinson's disease (PD). However, less is known about the independent and joint roles of these two habits, which are often clustered among Chinese, on PD risk.

OBJECTIVE

To prospectively examine the independent and joint association of tea consumption and smoking with the risk of PD.

METHODS

The China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) study recruited 512,725 participants aged 30 to 79 years from ten areas across China since 2004. Information on smoking and tea consumption was collected at baseline, and PD cases were ascertained by linkage to the national health insurance system and death registry. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and corresponding 95%confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

During a median of 10.8 years of follow-up, 922 PD cases were recorded. Compared with participants who never consumed tea, the HR (95%CI) for daily consumers was 0.68 (0.55, 0.84). Compared with participants who never or occasionally smoked, the HR (95%CI) for current smokers was 0.66 (0.53, 0.82). Those who had a clustering habit of smoking and tea consumption had a 38%(HR = 0.62; 95%CI: 0.49, 0.79) lower PD risk than those who consumed none. However, there were no statistically significant multiplicative or additive interaction for tea consumption and smoking on PD risk.

CONCLUSION

We found that smoking and daily tea consumption were independently inversely associated with the risk of PD.

Liver biomarkers, genetic and lifestyle risk factors in relation to risk of cardiovascular disease in Chinese

Background and aims

Liver biomarkers and metabolic associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) have been shown to be associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, there is limited evidence on CVD subtypes [myocardial infarction (MI), ischemic stroke (IS), and intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH)], especially in the Chinese population. We examined these associations overall, by genetic predisposition to non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), and by lifestyle risk factors.

Approach and results

This is a nested case-control study of CVD (10,298 cases and 5,388 controls) within the China Kadoorie Biobank. Cox regression was used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for CVD associated with liver biomarkers and MAFLD and by stratum of genetic risk and a combined high-risk lifestyle score. For liver enzymes, there were positive associations with MI and IS, but no associations with ICH or carotid plaque. There were positive associations of NAFLD with risks of MI, IS, and ICH (HR 1.43 [95% CI 1.30-1.57], 1.25 [1.16-1.35], and 1.12 [1.02-1.23]) as well as carotid plaque (odds ratio 2.36 [1.12-4.96]). The associations of NAFLD with CVD and carotid plaque were stronger among individuals with a high genetic risk (ICH: p-interaction < 0.05), while the associations with stroke were stronger among those with a favorable lifestyle (p-interaction < 0.05). The results for MAFLD mirrored those for NAFLD.

Conclusion

In Chinese adults, liver biomarkers and MAFLD were associated with risk of CVD, with different magnitudes of associations by CVD subtypes. Genetic predisposition to NAFLD and lifestyle factors modified the associations of fatty liver with stroke.

Publisher Correction: Systemic inflammation is associated with incident stroke and heart disease in East Asians

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

The Mysterious Case of the Delayed Twin: using research data to resolve linkage questions

IntroductionIn a large biobank of over half a million people, we have several pairs of participants who appear to share their genome. As more individuals are sequenced, more pairs are likely to be found. If these are twins then this is great news, but it isn’t quite that simple. Objectives and ApproachWhere 2 people share a genome we need to be able to confirm that these pairs are twins. However, there are a number of issues which could cause 2 people to appear to share a genome; for example being recruited twice, donating blood on another’s behalf, etc. We already identify and exclude participant data based on these conditions. We developed our methodology by looking at the first identified pair in great detail, looking for evidence which specifically ruled out possible alternate explanations, and then applying and refining the method on later pairs. ResultsWe were able to demonstrate the pair were almost certainly twins using their biochemistry and family questionnaire data as principal sources. We also identified a number of variables which were useful in indicating the likelihood of a twin, and now form part of a methodology which we are still developing. Even more usefully, we identified a number of variables that seemed like useful measures but proved extremely misleading. To date we have 26 pairs of possible twins, with 9 confirmed as twins and the remainder looking likely to be twins but falling short of a threshold for confidence. We also have 75 pairs which confirm duplicate participants we have already excluded. Conclusion/ImplicationsWe formed two lessons: even very simply linkages come with pitfalls, and you should gather more administrative data than you think. We’re proposing the collection of additional familial relationship data in our third resurvey. We are also looking into machine learning and statistical techniques to better identify twins and duplicates.

To Err is Human, all hail your Robot Overseer: automated testing as part of a robust data delivery platform

IntroductionWe have a large cohort study of half a million people, which continually incorporates new data through health insurance, centre for disease control records, death certificates, resurveys, and ongoing quality assurance and participant information updates. To support our researchers we need data which is correct, up-to-date, and unchanging. Objectives and ApproachWe must provide the new data, fixes and corrections to researchers, without missing anything or introducing issues. We make sequential iterations of our data available to researchers on a biannual basis; allowing a static version that can be referenced with regards to earlier work and providing the newest version of the data for new work. Due to the very large size of the data/code base and the small size of the team managing it, delivering this without error is a struggle. To mitigate this we developed testing scripts which catch issues and flag for resolution prior to release to researchers. ResultsWe currently have 32 tests which catch all known issues which occur during a rebuild. On any occasion where a new type of issue is encountered, tests which would catch that issue and related issues are developed. As a result our last few releases have gone far more smoothly, with few if any issues reported after a release and certainly no previously encountered issues! Examples of current tests include: detection of a failed health insurance import; that we have the same number of participants; failure to increment version number between releases; checking that disease numbers have not changed dramatically over the shared timeframe. Conclusion/ImplicationsProducing multiple static releases is a good way to balance the needs of a researcher for both static and current data, but it does introduce opportunities for both human and computer errors. Mitigating this risk with automated testing is convenient and effective.

Do Regional Medical Campuses Contribute to the Production of General Surgeons? A Study of 789 Medical School Graduates from 3 Campuses Who Matched into General Surgery Residencies over 40 Years: 1974 to 2015

Background A Regional Medical Campus (RMC) is a medical school campus separate from the main medical school at which a portion of preclinical or clinical training of medical students is carried out. The College of Community Health Sciences of The University of Alabama in Tuscaloosa, Alabama is the Tuscaloosa Regional Campus of the University of Alabama School of Medicine (UASOM). The question we sought to answer with this study is whether or not regional campuses produce general surgeons. Design, Setting and Participants Publicly available data for 6271 graduates of the University of Alabama School of Medicine from the Birmingham, Tuscaloosa and Huntsville campuses from 1974 to 2015 was obtained by using Google Search Engine. The list was expanded to include the data described by the variables in Table 1. Results Between 1974 and 2015, 789 graduates of the University of Alabama School of Medicine assigned to the Birmingham, Tuscaloosa and Huntsville Campuses matched into Categorical Surgery. All three campuses matched similar percentages of students ranging from 10.4% to 13.3% (Table 2). The main campus at Birmingham matched 599 medical students into general surgery and 202 practice general surgery. The Tuscaloosa Regional Campus matched 88 medical students into general surgery and 47 practice general surgery. The Huntsville Regional Campus matched 103 medical students into general surgery and 41 practice general surgery (Table 2). Conclusions A comparable percentage of medical students at each campus matched into general surgery. The main campus contributed a larger absolute number of practicing general surgeons while regional medical campuses contributed a higher percentage of practicing general surgeons. Regional medical campuses contribute significantly to the deficit of general surgeons in this country.

Ages of uraninite and Coffinite from south-west England

The mode of occurrence of uraninite, pitchblende and coffinite at five localities in south-west England is described. Chemical and isotopic analyses of concentrates containing these minerals provide the following 206Pb/238U ages (My.): uraninite, South Crofty, Cornwall, 277 ± 10; uraninite, Geevor, Cornwall, 223 ± 5; pitcbblende-coffinite, King's Wood, Devon, 206 ± 5; pitchblende, Wheal Bray, Cornwall, 165 ± 4; pitchblende, South Terras, Cornwall, 474 ± 2; coffinite, Geevor, Cornwall, c. 45 (chemical analysis only). These results are compatible with geological and mineralogical evidence. Consideration of these and other results indicates that there were at least three periods of uranium mineralization in south-west England, at c. 290 My., c. 225 My., and c. 50 My. Other intermediate ages may also be valid but further work is required to substantiate these.

Panning for gold: finding medical treatment data in insurance records

ABSTRACT ObjectivesIn our Chinese biobank of half a million people, we use data gathered from health insurance agencies to supplement our follow-up. We have 217,000 participants with insurance records including a breakdown of what the insurance paid for, totalling 1.6 million insurance records and 60 million chargeable items. The objective was to find ways of using this information to enhance our Electronic Health Records (EHRs) by adding usable and reliable treatment data, as a basis for future research. ApproachMachine translations of every charge description were produced so that early investigation could be done by analysts who were not Chinese speakers. Key phrases were produced by specialist clinicians in an iterative process. We began by focussing on haemodialysis treated ESRD, heart failure, and coronary revascularisation. With our refined techniques, key phrase searches were developed which could be tied into ongoing validation procedures elsewhere in the study (e.g. cancer) or which could be validated using existing data from other sources (e.g. death reporting). ResultsMachine translation provided both problems and unexpected solutions. While it could be inaccurate (‘Divine Comedy’, ‘semen’, ‘corpse cuisine’), more often than not it provided unexpected advantages, converting regional, archaic, or otherwise uncommon Chinese terms into the most common English equivalent.The majority of chargeable elements in our insurance records are not treatment data per se, but instead hospital fees, generic care, and records of tests without result data. This makes identification of relevant treatment data challenging. Targeted key phrase searches proved successful, demonstrating that it was possible to use this data to answer research questions, even teasing out details which would otherwise not be available to us (e.g. ESRD, location and type of revascularisation). Validation of these findings is ongoing. For example, we found that 395 of our participants have been charged for ‘corpse cuisine’ (more accurately ‘corpse preparation’). Comparing these figures to our death records (an independently gathered source) we confirmed that 326 are known to be dead, and we added the remaining 69 to our list for active follow-up. Similarly, will we be seeking hospital records for the 528 patients who are receiving cancer treatment with no record of cancer. ConclusionOur methods for dealing with treatment data are still being refined, but early results are looking promising. We are investigating standardisation to ICD-10-PCS codes, developing more treatment-based diagnoses, and feeding our findings back into our ongoing validation program.

Upper Extremity Injuries in Gymnasts

Gymnastics is a unique sport, which loads the wrist and arms as weight-bearing extremities. Because of the load demands on the wrist in particular, stress fractures, physeal injury, and overuse syndromes may be observed. This spectrum of injury has been termed "gymnast's wrist," and incorporates such disorders as wrist capsulitis, ligamentous tears, triangular fibrocartilage complex tears, chondromalacia of the carpus, stress fractures, distal radius physeal arrest, and grip lock injury.

Robot-assisted extravesical ureteral reimplantation: outcomes and conclusions from 78 ureters

OBJECTIVE

Extravesical robot-assisted laparoscopic ureteral reimplantation (RALUR) is a popular alternative to open surgery. We report our experience with RALUR and evaluate clinical variables as predictors for failure.

METHODS

We retrospectively evaluated the records of patients who underwent RALUR by a single surgeon for treatment of primary vesicoureteral reflux. Clinical and demographic variables were determined. Clinical variables were compared with surgical outcomes using the Student two-tailed type 2 t test.

RESULTS

Fifty patients underwent a combined 78 extravesical RALURs. Median (range) age was 6.2 (1.9-18.0) years; median (range) preoperative reflux grade was 3 (0-5). Dysfunctional elimination syndrome (DES) was present in 32 (64%). Ten (20%) patients had prior deflux, and two (4%) had prior ureteroneocystostomy on the ipsilateral side. Postoperative cystogram was performed in 100% at a median (range) of 55 (27-133) days. Median (range) follow-up was 286 (27-2238) days. Febrile urinary tract infection occurred in five (10%), none of whom had reflux on initial follow-up postoperative cystogram. All five had a history of DES and were female. Six complications occurred in five (10%) patients, including ileus (2), ureteral obstruction (2), ureteral injury (1), and perinephric fluid collection (1). Transient urinary retention occurred in one. Five of 22 (22.7%) patients undergoing unilateral surgery had contralateral de novo reflux. Six of 78 ureters (7.7%) had persistent reflux postoperatively. Neither persistent nor de novo reflux was associated with any of the clinical variables assessed.

CONCLUSIONS

RALUR is an effective and safe option for patients with primary vesicoureteral reflux requiring surgery.

EEG and the variance of motor evoked potential amplitude

The motor threshold is an important parameter in selecting the treatment intensity of patients undergoing transcranial magnetic stimulation. The large variance in magnitude of motor evoked responses has forced clinicians to perform many trials and average the results to find a repeatable value for motor threshold. Our objective is to investigate the source of the variance in amplitude. Four clinically healthy adult males participated in an EEG and EMG during transcranial magnetic stimulation of the left motor cortex, 100% motor threshold, 0.1 Hz. Per our hypothesis, a significant negative correlation of .22 was found between the amplitude of the motor evoked potential and the power in the high alpha frequency band during the pre-stimulus period (p < .001). In addition, a significant positive correlation of .17 was found between the motor evoked potential (MEP) amplitude and the gamma band (p < .001). The strongest correlation of .27 (p < .001) was found between the MEP amplitude and the ratio of the power in the low gamma to high alpha band. We conclude that the gamma to alpha power ratio may be a useful indicator of cortical excitability.

A note on hair whorl position and cattle temperament in the auction ring

The objective of this study was to further describe the relationships between facial hair whorls and temperament in cattle. Cattle (n=1636) from six commercial cattle auctions in Colorado and Texas were observed. Whorl location was classified according to lateral position (left, right, or middle) and height (high: above the top of the eye, middle: at eye level, low: below the bottom of the eye). A 4-point temperament score was used to rate each animal while it was in the auction ring. Cattle with a score of 1 remained calm and stood still or walked around, and those with a score of 4 were highly agitated and hit the ring fence, walls, partitions, or people with its head. The cattle observed were 75% Bos taurus beef breeds, 21% Holstein dairy cattle, 3% Bos indicus beef breeds, and 1% non-Holstein dairy breeds. Ten percent of cattle surveyed had no facial hair whorl, while 86% had a single spiral hair whorl, of which 47% had middle-middle whorl placement. Animals with a high whorl position or no hair whorl had higher temperament scores (P=0.01). Cattle with low whorls were more likely to have greater lateral displacement of whorls off of the centerline than cattle with high or middle whorls (P<0.01). Abnormally shaped whorls were more common on cattle with low whorls (P<0.01) and on cattle with lateral whorls located off of the centerline (P<0.01). Cattle with hair whorls on the centerline had more variable temperament scores (P=0.04). Beef cattle had more abnormal whorls than Holsteins (P<0.01). Temperament scores showed that Holsteins were calmer than beef cattle (P<0.01). Facial hair whorls in cattle may be a useful management tool in assessing which animals may become disturbed in novel environments.

The relationship between reaction to sudden, intermittent movements and sounds and temperament

Casual observations indicated that some cattle are more sensitive to sudden movement or intermittent sound than other cattle. Six commercial livestock auctions in two states and a total of 1,636 cattle were observed to assess the relationship between breed, sex, and temperament score on the response to sudden, intermittent visual and sound stimuli, such as the ringman swinging his arm for a bid and the sound of him briefly yelling a bid. A 4-point temperament score was used to score each animal while it was in the ring. The scores used were 1) walks and(or) stands still, with slow, smooth body movements; 2) continuously walks or trots, and vigilant; 3) gait is faster than a trot (runs even a couple of steps), with fast, abrupt, jerky movements, and very vigilant; and 4) hits the ring fence, walls, partitions, or people with its head. Animals were observed for flinches, startle responses, or orientation toward sudden, intermittent sounds, motions, and tactile stimulation, such as being touched with a cane or plastic paddle. The cattle observed were mostly Bos taurus beef breeds and Holstein dairy cattle. Holsteins were more sound-sensitive (P = .02) and touch-sensitive (P < .01) than beef cattle. Sensitivity to sudden, intermittent stimuli (e.g., sound, motion, and touch) increased as temperament score (excitability) increased. Cattle with a temperament score of 1 were the least sensitive to sudden, intermittent movement and sound and those with a temperament score of 4 were the most sensitive (P < .01). This same relationship was sometimes observed for touch but was not statistically significant. Motion-sensitive cattle were more likely than nonsensitive cattle to score a temperament rating of 3 or 4 (P < .01). Steers and heifers were more motion-sensitive than the older bulls and cows (P = .03). Beef cattle urinated (P < .01, n = 1,581) and defecated (P < .01, n = 1,582) more often in the ring than did dairy cattle. Cattle that became agitated during handling in an auction ring were the individuals that were most likely to be startled by sudden, intermittent sounds and movements. Reactivity to sudden, intermittent stimuli may be an indicator of an excitable temperament.

Characterization of the selectivity filter of the epithelial sodium channel

The epithelial sodium channel (ENaC) is composed of three homologous subunits termed alpha, beta, and gamma. Previous studies suggest that selected residues within a hydrophobic region immediately preceding the second membrane-spanning domain of each subunit contribute to the conducting pore of ENaC. We probed the pore of mouse ENaC by systematically mutating all 24 amino acids within this putative pore region of the alpha-subunit to cysteine and co-expressing these mutants with wild type beta- and gamma-subunits of mouse ENaC in Xenopus laevis oocytes. Functional characteristics of these mutants were examined by two-electrode voltage clamp and single channel recording techniques. Two distinct domains were identified based on the functional changes associated with point mutations. An amino-terminal domain (alpha-Val(569)-alpha-Gly(579)) showed minimal changes in cation selectivity or amiloride sensitivity following cysteine substitution. In contrast, cysteine substitutions within the carboxyl-terminal domain (alpha-Ser(580)-alpha-Ser(592)) resulted in significant changes in cation selectivity and moderately altered amiloride sensitivity. The mutant channels containing alphaG587C or alphaS589C were permeable to K(+), and mutation of a GSS tract (positions alpha587-alpha589) to GYG resulted in a moderately K(+)-selective channel. Our results suggest that the C-terminal portion of the pore region within the alpha-subunit contributes to the selectivity filter of ENaC.

Quantitative analysis of lymphocyte differentiation and proliferation in vitro using carboxyfluorescein diacetate succinimidyl ester

Mature T and B lymphocytes respond to receptor-delivered signals received during and following activation. These signals regulate the rates of cell death, growth, differentiation and migration that ultimately establish the behaviour patterns collectively referred to as immune regulation. We have been pursuing the philosophy that in vitro systems of lymphocyte stimulation, when analysed quantitatively, help reveal the logical attributes of lymphocyte behaviour. The development of carboxyfluorescein diacetate succinimidyl ester (CFSE) to track division has enabled the variable of division number to be incorporated into these quantitative analyses. Our studies with CFSE have established a fundamental link between differentiation and division number. Isotype switching, expression of T cell cytokines, surface receptor alterations and changes to intracellular signalling components all display independent patterns of change with division number. The stochastic aspects of these changes and the ability of external signals to independently regulate them argue for a probabilistic modelling framework for describing and understanding immune regulation.