Spatio-temporal dynamics of visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil: A nonlinear regression analysis

AIMS

This study describes the spatio-temporal dynamics of new visceral leishmaniasis (VL) cases notified in Brazil between 2001 and 2020.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Data on the occurrence of the disease were obtained by means of the Notifiable Diseases Information System of the Brazilian Ministry of Health. Joinpoint, temporal generalized additive models and conditional autoregressive (CAR) models were used to analyse the temporal evolution of the rates in Brazil, states and regions. Spatio-temporal generalized additive and CAR models were used to identify the distribution of annual risks of VL occurrence in the Brazilian territory in relation to variation in the spatial average. There were 63,966 VL cases in the target period (3.198 cases/year), corresponding to a mean incidence rate of 1.68 cases/100,000 inhabitants. Of these, 4451 resulted in deaths, which gives a mean mortality rate of 0.12 deaths/100,000 inhabitants and a case fatality of 6.96%. The highest incidence rate was found in the North region, followed closely by the Northeast region, which presented the second and first highest mortality rates, respectively. For all of Brazil, and in the Northeast region, there were stability in the incidence rates, while the other regions showed an increasing trend in different time segments in the period: Central-West up to 2011, North up to 2008, Southeast up to 2004, and South up to 2010. On the other hand, all regions experienced a reduction in incidence rate during the last years of the series. The Northeast region had the highest number of municipalities with statistically significant elevated relative risks. The spatio-temporal analysis showed the highest risk area predominantly in the Northeast region in the beginning of the time series. From 2002 to 2018, this area expanded to the interior of the country.

CONCLUSIONS

The present study has shown that VL has expanded in Brazil. However, the North and Northeast regions continue to have the highest incidence, and the risk of infection has decreased in recent years.

Spatio-Temporal Cluster Detection of Dengue, Chikungunya, and Zika Viruses' Infection in Rio de Janeiro State from 2010 to 2019

Dengue (DENV), chikungunya (CHIKV), and Zika (ZIKV) virus infections are widespread throughout the Rio de Janeiro state. The co-circulation of these emergent arboviruses constitutes a serious public health problem, resulting in outbreaks that can spatially and temporally overlap. Environmental conditions favor the presence, maintenance, and expansion of Aedes aegypti, the primary vector of these urban arboviruses. This study assessed the detection of clusters of urban arboviruses in the Rio de Janeiro state from 2010 to 2019. Notified cases of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika were grouped by year according to the onset of symptoms and their municipality of residence. The study period recorded the highest number of dengue epidemics in the state along with the simultaneous circulation of chikungunya and Zika viruses. The analyzes showed that the central municipalities of the metropolitan regions were associated with higher risk areas. Central municipalities in metropolitan regions were the first most likely clusters for dengue and Zika, and the second most likely cluster for chikungunya. Furthermore, the northwest and north regions were comprised clusters with the highest relative risk for the three arboviruses, underscoring the impact of these arboviruses in less densely populated regions of Brazil. The identification of high-risk areas over time highlights the need for effective control measures, targeted prevention and control interventions for these urban arboviral diseases.

Temporal patterns, spatial risks, and characteristics of tegumentary leishmaniasis in Brazil in the first twenty years of the 21st Century

BACKGROUND

Tegumentary leishmaniasis (TL) is a significant public health issue in Brazil. The present ecological study describes the clinical and epidemiological characteristics of TL cases reported in the country, and analyzes the spatial and temporal patterns of the incidences and risks of occurrence across the five geopolitical regions and 27 federative units.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Data regarding new cases of TL notified between 2001 and 2020 were obtained from the Information System for Notifiable Diseases of the Brazilian Ministry of Health. Joinpoint and spatial and temporal generalized additive models were used to establish trends in the evolution of TL during the target period. The incidence rate for the entire period was 226.41 cases/100,000 inhabitants. All regions of Brazil showed trends of decreasing incidence rates, albeit with fluctuations at specific times, with the exception of the Southeast where rates have increased since 2014, most particularly in Minas Gerais state. The disease was concentrated predominantly in the North region, with Acre state leading the incidence rank in the whole country, followed by Mato Grosso (Midwest), Maranhão and Bahia (Northeast) states. The spatial distribution of the risk of TL occurrence in relation to the annual averages was relatively stable throughout the period. The cutaneous form of TL was predominant and cases most frequently occurred in rural areas and among men of working age. The ages of individuals contracting TL tended to increase during the time series. Finally, the proportion of confirmations by laboratory tests was lower in the Northeast.

CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE

TL shows a declining trend in Brazil, but its widespread occurrence and the presence of areas with increasing incidence rates demonstrate the persistent relevance of this disease and the need for constant monitoring. Our findings reinforce the importance of temporal and spatial tools in epidemiologic surveillance routines and are valuable for targeting preventive and control actions.

A Platform for Data-Centric, Continuous Epidemiological Analyses (EpiGraphHub): Descriptive Analysis

BACKGROUND

Guaranteeing durability, provenance, accessibility, and trust in open data sets can be challenging for researchers and organizations that rely on public repositories of data critical for epidemiology and other health analytics. The required data repositories are often difficult to locate and may require conversion to a standard data format. Data-hosting websites may also change or become unavailable without warning. A single change to the rules in one repository can hinder updating a public dashboard reliant on data pulled from external sources. These concerns are particularly challenging at the international level, because policies on systems aimed at harmonizing health and related data are typically dictated by national governments to serve their individual needs.

OBJECTIVE

In this paper, we introduce a comprehensive public health data platform, EpiGraphHub, that aims to provide a single interoperable repository for open health and related data.

METHODS

The platform, curated by the international research community, allows secure local integration of sensitive data while facilitating the development of data-driven applications and reports for decision-makers. Its main components include centrally managed databases with fine-grained access control to data, fully automated and documented data collection and transformation, and a powerful web-based data exploration and visualization tool.

RESULTS

EpiGraphHub is already being used for hosting a growing collection of open data sets and for automating epidemiological analyses based on them. The project has also released an open-source software library with the analytical methods used in the platform.

CONCLUSIONS

The platform is fully open source and open to external users. It is in active development with the goal of maximizing its value for large-scale public health studies.

Spatio-temporal relative risks and priority areas for visceral leishmaniasis control in Brazil, between 2001 and 2020

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a pressing public health problem in Brazil. The proper implementation of disease control programs in priority areas is a challenge for healthcare managers. The present study aimed to analyze the spatio-temporal distribution and identify high risk areas of VL occurrence in the Brazilian territory. We analyzed data regarding new cases with confirmed diagnosis of VL in Brazilian municipalities, from 2001 to 2020, extracted from the Brazilian Information System for Notifiable Diseases. The Local Index of Spatial Autocorrelation (LISA) was used to identify contiguous areas with high incidence rates in different periods of the temporal series. Clusters of high spatio-temporal risk were identified using the scan statistics. The accumulated incidence rate in the analyzed period was 33.53 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. The number of municipalities that reported cases showed an upward trend from 2001 onward, although there was a decrease in 2019 and 2020. According to LISA, the number of municipalities considered a priority increased in Brazil and in most states. Priority municipalities were predominantly concentrated in the states of Tocantins, Maranhão, Piauí, and Mato Grosso do Sul, in addition to more specific areas of Pará, Ceará, Piauí, Alagoas, Pernambuco, Bahia, São Paulo, Minas Gerais, and Roraima. The spatio-temporal clusters of high-risk areas varied throughout the time series and were relatively higher in the North and Northeast regions. Recent high-risk areas were found in Roraima and municipalities in northeastern states. VL expanded territorially in Brazil in the 21st century. However, there is still a considerable spatial concentration of cases. The areas identified in the present study should be prioritized for disease control actions.

An in-depth statistical analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic's initial spread in the WHO African region

During the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, sub-Saharan African countries experienced comparatively lower rates of SARS-CoV-2 infections and related deaths than in other parts of the world, the reasons for which remain unclear. Yet, there was also considerable variation between countries. Here, we explored potential drivers of this variation among 46 of the 47 WHO African region Member States in a cross-sectional study. We described five indicators of early COVID-19 spread and severity for each country as of 29 November 2020: delay in detection of the first case, length of the early epidemic growth period, cumulative and peak attack rates and crude case fatality ratio (CFR). We tested the influence of 13 pre-pandemic and pandemic response predictor variables on the country-level variation in the spread and severity indicators using multivariate statistics and regression analysis. We found that wealthier African countries, with larger tourism industries and older populations, had higher peak (p<0.001) and cumulative (p<0.001) attack rates, and lower CFRs (p=0.021). More urbanised countries also had higher attack rates (p<0.001 for both indicators). Countries applying more stringent early control policies experienced greater delay in detection of the first case (p<0.001), but the initial propagation of the virus was slower in relatively wealthy, touristic African countries (p=0.023). Careful and early implementation of strict government policies were likely pivotal to delaying the initial phase of the pandemic, but did not have much impact on other indicators of spread and severity. An over-reliance on disruptive containment measures in more resource-limited contexts is neither effective nor sustainable. We thus urge decision-makers to prioritise the reduction of resource-based health disparities, and surveillance and response capacities in particular, to ensure global resilience against future threats to public health and economic stability.

COVID-19 pandemic in Africa’s island nations during the first 9 months: a descriptive study of variation in patterns of infection, severe disease, and response measures

The geographic and economic characteristics unique to island nations create a different set of conditions for, and responses to, the spread of a pandemic compared with those of mainland countries. Here, we aimed to describe the initial period of the COVID-19 pandemic, along with the potential conditions and responses affecting variation in the burden of infections and severe disease burden, across the six island nations of the WHO’s Africa region: Cabo Verde, Comoros, Madagascar, Mauritius, São Tomé e Príncipe and Seychelles. We analysed the publicly available COVID-19 data on confirmed cases and deaths from the beginning of the pandemic through 29 November 2020. To understand variation in the course of the pandemic in these nations, we explored differences in their economic statuses, healthcare expenditures and facilities, age and sex distributions, leading health risk factors, densities of the overall and urban populations and the main industries in these countries. We also reviewed the non-pharmaceutical response measures implemented nationally. We found that the burden of SARS-CoV-2 infection was reduced by strict early limitations on movement and biased towards nations where detection capacity was higher, while the burden of severe COVID-19 was skewed towards countries that invested less in healthcare and those that had older populations and greater prevalence of key underlying health risk factors. These findings highlight the need for Africa’s island nations to invest more in healthcare and in local testing capacity to reduce the need for reliance on border closures that have dire consequences for their economies.

Prevalence of chronic diseases and access to health services in Brazil: evidence of three household surveys

Chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are the leading causes of death globally, impacting heavily on the most vulnerable populations. This study aimed to analyze changes in the prevalence of these diseases, health conditions, access, and health services in Brazil between 2008 and 2019. Tests of differences and generalized linear models were used as analytical tools, considering complex sampling from the PNAD 2008, PNS 2013, and PNS 2019 surveys, to test temporal changes in the prevalence and the prevalence ratio estimates, adjusted by sociodemographic variables. An increase in the prevalence of Depression, Diabetes, Cancers, Neuropsychiatric Disorders, Chronic Pulmonary problems, and Musculoskeletal problems was observed. A decline in rheumatoid arthritis, chronic renal failure, and diseases of the circulatory system was identified. Among Brazilians with at least one NCD, an increase in coverage by the family health strategy over time was observed. However, there was a reduction in timely medical care and obtaining of free prescription drugs.

Interspecific Mating Effects on Locomotor Activity Rhythms and Refractoriness of Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) Females

This study tests the hypotheses that the locomotor activity of Ae. albopictus females is not significantly altered by the presence of accessory gland (AG) extracts from conspecific and heterospecific males, and that Ae. albopictus females remain receptive to mating with conspecific males even after receiving AG of Ae. aegypti males. Virgin Ae. albopictus females were injected with saline (control group), AG extracts of Ae. aegypti males (aegMAG) or AG extracts of Ae. albopictus males (albMAG). Locomotor activity was evaluated under 12 h of light and 12 h of darkness at 25 °C. All live Ae. albopictus females were subsequently exposed to conspecific males for 48 h, and their spermathecae were dissected for the presence of sperm. Females injected with aegMAG and albMAG showed significant decreases in total, diurnal and diurnal without lights-on Period activities. Females injected with aegMAG showed significant decreases in nocturnal and nocturnal without lights-off period activities. Females injected with albMAG showed significant decreases in lights-off activity. A total of 83% of Ae. albopictus females injected with aegMAG and 10% of females injected with albMAG were inseminated by conspecific males. These results, coupled with our previous paper on MAG and interspecific mating effects on female Ae. aegypti, demonstrate contrasting outcomes on locomotor activities and loss of sexual receptivity, both conspecific and heterospecific MAGs capable of sterilizing virgin Ae. aegypti, but only conspecific MAGs sterilizing Ae. albopictus, whereas locomotor activities were depressed in females of both species after heterospecific and conspecific injections or treatments.

Diversity of mosquito (Diptera: Culicidae) vectors in a heterogeneous landscape endemic for arboviruses

BACKGROUND

In Brazil and several countries in the Americas, where dengue, chikungunya and Zika are cocirculating, there is a need to understand how different mosquito species relate to landscape and humans. Mosquito ecology and distribution, especially at finer spatial scales, are key factors to study since the relationship of mosquito communities to their habitats might have important consequences in the risk of disease transmission to humans. The aim of this study was to evaluate the diversity of resident culicids along heterogeneous landscapes in different endemic cities for dengue, chikungunya and Zika.

METHODS

Fourteen collection sites were randomly selected in six landscapes characterized as urban, periurban and rural along two endemic metropolitan cities in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: Itaboraí and Cachoeiras de Macacu, Rio de Janeiro. In each site, adult mosquito collections were performed using different traps and backpack aspiration. Collections took place during the rainy and dry seasons of 2015 and 2016. To measure diversity in each landscape, we generated species accumulation curves and used different indexes: rarefied species richness, Chao1-bc and ACE-1. Mosquito habitat segregation along different land use types was measured with a partial canonical correspondence analysis (pCCA). Generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) were used to model the probability of occurrence of the most abundant species along an Urban-Forest gradient.

RESULTS

A total of 13,462 adult mosquitoes from 10 genera and 41 species were collected. The most abundant species were Culex quinquefasciatus Say, 1823, Aedes aegypti (Linnaeus, 1762) and Aedes albopictus (Skuse, 1895). There was a significant association between rarefied species richness and landscape, with higher richness in the Rural landscape. The number of observed species was matched only in the Urban landscape. Most species showed segregation along an Urban-Forest gradient, and the great majority were associated with forested habitats. We were able to fit prediction models for six mosquito species.

DISCUSSION

The paper discusses the impact of human activities on landscape and its effects on mosquito populations, focusing on the segregation of different known vector species and their proximity to human altered environments. Most of these species are known arbovirus vectors and knowledge of their distribution are key elements that health authorities should take into account when planning arbovirus surveillance and vector control activities.

Experimental Vertical Transmission of Chikungunya Virus by Brazilian and Florida Aedes Albopictus Populations

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is a vector-borne alphavirus transmitted by the bites of mosquitoes, specifically infected, female mosquitoes of the invasive Aedes species. In nature, CHIKV can be maintained by vertical transmission, a phenomenon that relates to the transfer of CHIKV from the infected parent to their offspring within the ovary or during oviposition. In the present study, we conducted laboratory experiments to determine vertical transmission with Ae. albopictus populations from Brazil and Florida. Parental Ae. albopictus females were orally infected with the emergent Asian genotype of CHIKV in the first gonotrophic cycle (infectious blood meal) and tested for vertical transmission following the second (non-infectious blood meal) gonotrophic cycle. CHIKV infection and CHIKV viral titer in parental females were significantly related to population origin, with Brazilian Ae. albopictus showing higher viral dissemination and viral titer than the Florida population. Experimental vertical transmission of CHIKV was documented in one pool of female and four pools of male Ae. albopictus from Brazil (minimum infection rate, MIR, of 0.76% and 2.86%, respectively, for females and males). For the Florida population of Ae. albopictus, only one pool of males was positive for CHIKV infection, with an MIR of 1.06%. Our results demonstrate that Ae. albopictus populations from Brazil and Florida show heterogeneous CHIKV dissemination and vertical transmission, which may contribute to the epidemiology of CHIKV and may be particularly relevant to virus survival during inter-epidemic periods.

Diversity of Anopheles spp. (Diptera: Culicidae) in an Amazonian Urban Area

The genus Anopheles encompasses several species considered as vectors of human infecting Plasmodium. Environmental changes are responsible for behavior changes in these vectors and therefore the pattern of malaria transmission. To better understand the dynamics of malaria transmission, this study aimed at identify the species of adult anophelines found in a malaria endemic urban area of the Amazon region, Mâncio Lima, located in the Acre State Brazil. Using Shannon-type light traps installed at 11 collection points near fish ponds, a total of 116 anophelines were collected belonging to nine species. Anopheles darlingi Root 1926 and An. albitarsis s.l. Lynch-Arribalzaga 1878 were the most abundant and predominant species. Despite the low number of captured adult anophelines, the occurrence of An. darlingi throughout all urban area and the presence of secondary vectors reinforce the need of a permanent and continuous entomological surveillance.

Chikungunya virus vector competency of Brazilian and Florida mosquito vectors

Chikungunya virus is a vector-borne alphavirus transmitted by the bites of infected female Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus. In Brazil between 2014 and 2016 almost 320 thousand autochthonous human cases were reported and in Florida numerous imported CHIKV viremic cases (> 3,800) demonstrate the potential high risk to establishment of local transmission. In the present study, we carried out a series of experiments to determine the viral dissemination and transmission rates of different Brazilian and Florida populations of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus at 2, 5, and 13 days post-infection for the emergent Asian genotype of CHIKV. Our results show that all tested populations of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus have a high proportion (> 0.80) of individuals with disseminated infection as early as 2 days-post exposure. We found no significant treatment effects of mosquito population origin effects on viral dissemination rates. Transmission rates had a heterogeneous pattern, with US Ae. aegypti and Brazilian Ae. albopictus having the highest proportion of individuals with successful infection (respectively 0.50 and 0.82 as early as 2 days-post infection). Model results found significant effects of population origin, population origin x species, population origin x days post-infection and population origin x species x days post infection.

Dispersion and oviposition of Aedes albopictus in a Brazilian slum: Initial evidence of Asian tiger mosquito domiciliation in urban environments

Aedes albopictus, originally considered as a secondary vector for arbovirus transmission, especially in areas where this species co-exist with Aedes aegypti, has been described in most regions of the world. Dispersion and domiciliation of Ae. albopictus in a complex of densely urbanized slums in Rio de Janeiro, Southeastern Brazil, was evidenced. In this study, we tested the hypotheses that 1) Ae. albopictus distribution in urban slums is negatively related to distance from vegetation, and 2) these vectors have taken on a domestic life style with a portion of the population feeding, ovipositing, and resting indoors. To do this, we developed an integrated surveillance proposal, aiming to detect the presence and abundance of Aedes mosquitoes. The study, based on a febrile syndrome surveillance system in a cohort of infants living in the slum complex, was performed on a weekly basis between February 2014 and April 2017. A total of 8,418 adult mosquitoes (3,052 Ae. aegypti, 44 Ae. albopictus, 16 Ae. scapularis, 4 Ae. fluviatilis and 5,302 Culex quinquefasciatus) were collected by direct aspiration and 46,047 Aedes spp. eggs were collected by oviposition traps. The Asian tiger mosquito, Ae. albopictus, was aspirated in its adult form (n = 44), and immature forms of this species (n = 12) were identified from the eggs collected by the ovitraps. In most collection sites, co-occurrence of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus was observed. Key-sites, such as junkyards, thrift stores, factories, tire repair shops and garages, had the higher abundance of Ae. albopictus, followed by schools and households. We collected Ae. albopictus at up to 400 meters to the nearest vegetation cover. The log transformed (n+1) number of females Ae. albopictus captured at each collection point was inversely related to the distance to the nearest vegetation border. These results show that Ae. albopictus, a competent vector for important arboviruses and more commonly found in areas with higher vegetation coverage, is present and spread in neglected and densely urbanized areas, being collected at a long distance from the typical encounter areas for this species. Besides, as Ae. albopictus can easily move between sylvatic and urban environment, the entomological monitoring of Ae. albopictus should be an integral part of mosquito surveillance and control. Finally, key-sites, characterized by high human influx and presence of potential Aedes breeding sites, should be included in entomological monitoring.

Early Evidence for Zika Virus Circulation among Aedes aegypti Mosquitoes, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

During 2014-2016, we conducted mosquito-based Zika virus surveillance in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Results suggest that Zika virus was probably introduced into the area during May-November 2013 via multiple in-country sources. Furthermore, our results strengthen the hypothesis that Zika virus in the Americas originated in Brazil during October 2012-May 2013.

[Climate and dengue epidemics in State of Rio de Janeiro]

Temperatures in the city of Rio de Janeiro in the first quarter of the year over the period 1986-2003, especially the minimum, were significantly higher in the years in which dengue epidemics started in the city. There was no significant relationship with total rainfall for the same quarter of the year, but epidemics were more frequent in the years in which the volume of rain during the summer was small (less than 200 mm).