Impact of COVID-19 on the veteran population: evidence from the Trends in Scottish Veterans Health study

INTRODUCTION

There have been few epidemiological studies on the impact of the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic on the veteran population, other than on specific aspects such as mental health, and none in the UK. We used data from the Trends in Scottish Veterans Health cohort to explore the risk of hospitalisation and death associated with COVID-19 in veterans resident in Scotland in comparison with matched non-veterans.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study of 71 000 veterans and a comparison group of 230 000 non-veterans matched for age, sex and geography, using Cox proportional hazard analysis to explore the risk of hospitalisation with COVID-19 and COVID-19-associated death overall and by birth cohort, sex and length of military service.

RESULTS

Between 1 January 2020 and 31 December 2021, 564 (0.79%) veterans had been hospitalised with COVID-19 compared with 1728 (0.75%) non-veterans. The Cox model showed no significant difference overall, HR 0.99, 95% CIs 0.90 to 1.11, p=0.800. Subgroup analysis showed increased risk in older, short-serving (<20 weeks) Early Service Leavers (ESL). There was no overall difference in COVID-19-associated deaths, HR 0.99, 95% CI 0.79 to 1.23, p=0.993, but subgroup analysis showed a non-significant reduced risk of death in veterans aged 61-70 years, and a 38% higher risk in veterans aged over 70 years which almost reached statistical significance, p=0.054. This was only partially explained by socioeconomic factors and common comorbidities, although we had no data on domestic circumstances or care home residence.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, military service was not a risk factor for either hospitalisation or death associated with COVID-19. Older ESLs were at increased risk compared with non-veterans, but military service is unlikely to have been causal. The risk of death was increased in the oldest veterans and further studies are needed to explain this once census data become available for linkage.

The impact of COVID-19 and associated lockdowns on traumatic spinal cord injury incidence: a population based study

STUDY DESIGN

Natural experiment OBJECTIVES: To determine whether COVID-19 restrictions were associated with changes in the incidence of traumatic spinal cord injury (TSCI) in Scotland.

SETTING

The Queen Elizabeth National Spinal Injuries Unit (QENSIU), the sole provider of treatment for TSCI in Scotland.

METHODS

Time series analysis of all admissions for TSCI between 1st January 2015 and 31st August 2022.

RESULTS

Over the 8-year study period, 745 patients were admitted to the QENSIU with a TSCI. Interrupted time series analysis showed that level 3 and 4 COVID-19 lockdown restrictions (the most severe levels) were associated with lower incidence of TSCI (RR 0.63, CI% CI 0.47, 0.82, p < 0.001). The associations were stronger in people aged over 45 (additive interaction p = 0.001), males (additive interaction p = 0.01) and non-tetraplegia (additive interaction p = 0.002). The incidence of TSCI due to deliberate self-harm was higher (0.41 versus 0.23 per month) during restrictions.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, TSCI incidence reduced in Scotland when lockdowns were implemented, presumably due to lower engagement in risky activities. The increase in TSCI due to deliberate self-harm may reflect increased mental health problems and social isolation and should be anticipated and targeted in future pandemics. The change in incidence during the COVID-19 pandemic may have an economic impact and see a temporary reduction in the burden on health and social care. The results of this study will be useful for resource planning in future pandemics.

Increased risk of lower limb osteoarthritis among former professional soccer (football) players

BACKGROUND

Soccer is a high-speed contact sport with risk of injury. Despite long-standing concern, evidence to date remains inconsistent as to the association between playing professional-level soccer and lifelong musculoskeletal consequences.

AIMS

The objectives were to assess risk of osteoarthritis in former professional soccer players compared to matched general population controls, and subsequently assess associated musculoskeletal disorders which may contribute to, or result from, osteoarthritis-specifically meniscal injury and joint replacement.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study using national electronic health records (EHRs) on a cohort of 7676 former professional soccer players aged 40 or over at recruitment, matched on year of birth, sex (all male) and socio-economic status with 23 028 general population controls. Outcomes of interest were obtained by utilizing individual-level record linkage to EHRs from general hospital inpatient and day-case admissions.

RESULTS

Compared to controls, former soccer players showed a greater risk of hospital admission for osteoarthritis (hazard ratio [HR] 3.01; 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.80-3.25; P < 0.001). This increased risk appeared age dependant, normalizing over age 80 years and reflective of increased risk of lower limb osteoarthritis. Further, risk of hospital admissions for meniscal injury (HR 2.73; 95% CI 2.42-3.08; P < 0.001) and joint replacement (HR 2.82; 95% CI 2.23-3.57; P < 0.001) were greater among former soccer players.

CONCLUSIONS

We report an increased risk of lower limb osteoarthritis in former soccer players when compared with matched population controls. The results of this research add data in support of lower limb osteoarthritis among former soccer players representing a potential industrial injury.

Pre-hospital and retrieval medicine in Scotland: a retrospective cohort study of the workload and outcomes of the emergency medical retrieval service in the first decade of national coverage

BACKGROUND

The Emergency Medical Retrieval Service (EMRS) has provided national pre-hospital critical care and aeromedical retrieval in Scotland since 2010. This study investigates trends in the service and patients attended over the last decade; and factors associated with clinical deterioration and pre-hospital death.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was conducted of all service taskings over ten years (2011-2020 inclusive). The EMRS electronic database provided data on location, sociodemographic factors, diagnoses, physiological measurements, clinical management, and pre-hospital deaths. Binary logistic regression models were used to determine change in physiology in pre-hospital care, and factors associated with pre-hospital death. Geospatial modelling, using road and air travel time models, was used to explore transfer times.

RESULTS

EMRS received 8,069 taskings over the study period, of which 2,748 retrieval and 3,633 pre-hospital critical care missions resulted in patient contact. EMRS was more commonly dispatched to socioeconomically deprived areas for pre-hospital critical care incidents (Spearman's rank correlation, r(8)=-0.75, p = 0.01). In multivariate analysis, systolic blood pressure < 90mmHg, respiratory rate < 6/min or > 30/min, and Glasgow Coma Score ≤ 14 were associated with pre-hospital mortality independent of demographic factors. Geospatial modelling suggested that aeromedical retrieval reduced the mean time to a critical care unit by 1 h 46 min compared with road/ferry transportation.

CONCLUSION

EMRS continues to develop, delivering Pre-Hospital and Retrieval Medicine across Scotland and may have a role in addressing health inequalities, including socioeconomic deprivation and geographic isolation. Age, specific distances from care, and abnormal physiology are associated with death in pre-hospital critical care.

Educational outcomes in childhood cancer survivors: A Scotland-wide record-linkage study of 766,217 schoolchildren

BACKGROUND

A cancer diagnosis during childhood greatly disrupts the lives of those affected, causing physical and psychological challenges. We aim to investigate educational outcomes among schoolchildren with a previous cancer diagnosis compared to their peers.

METHODS

Individual records from four national education databases and three national health databases were linked to construct a cohort of all singleton schoolchildren born in Scotland attending Scottish local-authority schools between 2009-2013. Pupils previously diagnosed with any cancer, haematological cancers, and central nervous system (CNS) cancers, were compared to their unaffected peers with respect to five educational outcomes: special educational need (SEN), absenteeism, school exclusion, academic attainment, and unemployment. Analyses were adjusted for sociodemographic and maternity factors and chronic conditions.

RESULTS

Of 766,217 pupils, 1,313 (0.17%) had a previous cancer diagnosis. Children with any cancer had increased odds of SEN (OR 3.26, 95% CI 2.86-3.71), absenteeism (IRR 1.82, 95% CI 1.70-1.94), and low attainment (OR 2.15, 95% CI 1.52-3.03) compared to their peers. Similar findings were observed for haematological (SEN OR 2.62, 95% CI 2.12-3.24; absenteeism IRR 2.04, 95% CI 1.85-2.25; low attainment OR 2.17, 95% CI 1.31-3.61) and CNS (SEN OR 6.44, 95% CI 4.91-8.46; absenteeism IRR 1.75, 95% CI 1.51-2.04; low attainment OR 3.33, 95% CI 1.52-7.30) cancers. Lower exclusions were observed among children with any cancer (IRR 0.51, 95% CI 0.31-0.83) and CNS cancer (IRR 0.20, 95% CI 0.06-0.61). No associations were observed with unemployment.

CONCLUSIONS

This study highlights the wider impacts of childhood cancer on educational outcomes. These children need to be supported, as poor educational outcomes can further impact later health.

Evaluating the impact of alcohol minimum unit pricing on deaths and hospitalisations in Scotland: a controlled interrupted time series study

BACKGROUND

Since May 1, 2018, every alcoholic drink sold in Scotland has had minimum unit pricing (MUP) of £0·50 per unit. Previous studies have indicated that the introduction of this policy reduced alcohol sales by 3%. We aimed to assess whether this has led to reductions in alcohol-attributable deaths and hospitalisations.

METHODS

Study outcomes, wholly attributable to alcohol consumption, were defined using routinely collected data on deaths and hospitalisations. Controlled interrupted time series regression was used to assess the legislation's impact in Scotland, and any effect modification across demographic and socioeconomic deprivation groups. The pre-intervention time series ran from Jan 1, 2012, to April 30, 2018, and for 32 months after the policy was implemented (until Dec 31, 2020). Data from England, a part of the UK where the intervention was not implemented, were used to form a control group.

FINDINGS

MUP in Scotland was associated with a significant 13·4% reduction (95% CI -18·4 to -8·3; p=0·0004) in deaths wholly attributable to alcohol consumption. Hospitalisations wholly attributable to alcohol consumption decreased by 4·1% (-8·3 to 0·3; p=0·064). Effects were driven by significant improvements in chronic outcomes, particularly alcoholic liver disease. Furthermore, MUP legislation was associated with a reduction in deaths and hospitalisations wholly attributable to alcohol consumption in the four most socioeconomically deprived deciles in Scotland.

INTERPRETATION

The implementation of MUP legislation was associated with significant reductions in deaths, and reductions in hospitalisations, wholly attributable to alcohol consumption. The greatest improvements were in the four most socioeconomically deprived deciles, indicating that the policy is positively tackling deprivation-based inequalities in alcohol-attributable health harm.

FUNDING

Scottish Government.

Infant feeding method and special educational need in 191,745 Scottish schoolchildren: A national, population cohort study

BACKGROUND

While special educational needs (SEN) are increasingly recorded among schoolchildren, infant breastfeeding has been associated with reduced incidence of childhood physical and mental health problems. This study investigated relationships between infant feeding method and risk of all-cause and cause-specific SEN.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

A population cohort of schoolchildren in Scotland was constructed by linking together health (maternity, birth, and health visitor records) and education (annual school pupil census) databases. Inclusion was restricted to singleton children, born in Scotland from 2004 onwards with available breastfeeding data and who attended local authority mainstream or special schools between 2009 and 2013. Generalised estimating equation models with a binomial distribution and logit link function investigated associations between infant feeding method at 6 to 8 weeks and all-cause and cause-specific SEN, adjusting for sociodemographic and maternity factors. Of 191,745 children meeting inclusion criteria, 126,907 (66.2%) were formula-fed, 48,473 (25.3%) exclusively breastfed, and 16,365 (8.5%) mixed-fed. Overall, 23,141 (12.1%) children required SEN. Compared with formula feeding, mixed feeding and exclusive breastfeeding, respectively, were associated with decreased all-cause SEN (OR 0.90, 95% CI [0.84,0.95], p < 0.001 and 0.78, [0.75,0.82], p < 0.001), and SEN attributed to learning disabilities (0.75, [0.65,0.87], p < 0.001 and 0.66, [0.59,0.74], p < 0.001), and learning difficulties (0.85, [0.77,0.94], p = 0.001 and 0.75, [0.70,0.81], p < 0.001). Compared with formula feeding, exclusively breastfed children had less communication problems (0.81, [0.74,0.88], p = 0.001), social-emotional-behavioural difficulties (0.77, [0.70,0.84], p = 0.001), sensory impairments (0.79, [0.65,0.95], p = 0.01), physical motor disabilities (0.78, [0.66,0.91], p = 0.002), and physical health conditions (0.74, [0.63,0.87], p = 0.01). There were no significant associations for mixed-fed children (communication problems (0.94, [0.83,1.06], p = 0.312), social-emotional-behavioural difficulties (0.96, [0.85,1.09], p = 0.541), sensory impairments (1.07, [0.84,1.37], p = 0.579), physical motor disabilities (0.97, [0.78,1.19], p = 0.754), and physical health conditions (0.93, [0.74,1.16], p = 0.504)). Feeding method was not significantly associated with mental health conditions (exclusive 0.58 [0.33,1.03], p = 0.061 and mixed 0.74 [0.36,1.53], p = 0.421) or autism (exclusive 0.88 [0.77,1.01], p = 0.074 and mixed 1.01 [0.84,1.22], p = 0.903). Our study was limited since only 6- to 8-week feeding method was available precluding differentiation between never-breastfed infants and those who stopped breastfeeding before 6 weeks. Additionally, we had no data on maternal and paternal factors such as education level, IQ, employment status, race/ethnicity, or mental and physical health.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, we observed that both breastfeeding and mixed feeding at 6 to 8 weeks were associated with lower risk of all-cause SEN, and SEN attributed to learning disabilities and learning difficulty. Many women struggle to exclusively breastfeed for the full 6 months recommended by WHO; however, this study provides evidence that a shorter duration of nonexclusive breastfeeding could nonetheless be beneficial with regard to the development of SEN. Our findings augment the existing evidence base concerning the advantages of breastfeeding and reinforce the importance of breastfeeding education and support.

Educational and employment outcomes associated with childhood traumatic brain injury in Scotland: A population-based record-linkage cohort study

BACKGROUND

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a leading cause of death and disability among young children and adolescents and the effects can be lifelong and wide-reaching. Although there have been numerous studies to evaluate the impact of childhood head injury on educational outcomes, few large-scale studies have been conducted, and previous research has been limited by issues of attrition, methodological inconsistencies, and selection bias. We aim to compare the educational and employment outcomes of Scottish schoolchildren previously hospitalised for TBI with their peers.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

A retrospective, record-linkage population cohort study was conducted using linkage of health and education administrative records. The cohort comprised all 766,244 singleton children born in Scotland and aged between 4 and 18 years who attended Scottish schools at some point between 2009 and 2013. Outcomes included special educational need (SEN), examination attainment, school absence and exclusion, and unemployment. The mean length of follow up from first head injury varied by outcome measure; 9.44 years for assessment of SEN and 9.53, 12.70, and 13.74 years for absenteeism and exclusion, attainment, and unemployment, respectively. Logistic regression models and generalised estimating equation (GEE) models were run unadjusted and then adjusted for sociodemographic and maternity confounders. Of the 766,244 children in the cohort, 4,788 (0.6%) had a history of hospitalisation for TBI. The mean age at first head injury admission was 3.73 years (median = 1.77 years). Following adjustment for potential confounders, previous TBI was associated with SEN (OR 1.28, CI 1.18 to 1.39, p < 0.001), absenteeism (IRR 1.09, CI 1.06 to 1.12, p < 0.001), exclusion (IRR 1.33, CI 1.15 to 1.55, p < 0.001), and low attainment (OR 1.30, CI 1.11 to 1.51, p < 0.001). The average age on leaving school was 17.14 (median = 17.37) years among children with a TBI and 17.19 (median = 17.43) among peers. Among children previously admitted for a TBI, 336 (12.2%) left school before age 16 years compared with 21,941 (10.2%) of those not admitted for TBI. There was no significant association with unemployment 6 months after leaving school (OR 1.03, CI 0.92 to 1.16, p = 0.61). Excluding hospitalisations coded as concussion strengthened the associations. We were not able to investigate age at injury for all outcomes. For TBI occurring before school age, it was impossible to be certain that SEN had not predated the TBI. Therefore, potential reverse causation was a limitation for this outcome.

CONCLUSIONS

Childhood TBI, sufficiently severe to warrant hospitalisation, was associated with a range of adverse educational outcomes. These findings reinforce the importance of preventing TBI where possible. Where not possible, children with a history of TBI should be supported to minimise the adverse impacts on their education.

Association Between Socioeconomic Status and Outcomes in Critical Care: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

OBJECTIVES

Socioeconomic status is well established as a key determinant of inequalities in health outcomes. Existing literature examining the impact of socioeconomic status on outcomes in critical care has produced inconsistent findings. Our objective was to synthesize the available evidence on the association between socioeconomic status and outcomes in critical care.

DATA SOURCES

A systematic search of CINAHL, Ovid MEDLINE, and EMBASE was undertaken on September 13, 2022.

STUDY SELECTION

Observational cohort studies of adults assessing the association between socioeconomic status and critical care outcomes including mortality, length of stay, and functional outcomes were included. Two independent reviewers assessed titles, abstracts, and full texts against eligibility and quality criteria.

DATA EXTRACTION

Details of study methodology, population, exposure measures, and outcomes were extracted.

DATA SYNTHESIS

Thirty-eight studies met eligibility criteria for systematic review. Twenty-three studies reporting mortality to less than or equal to 30 days following critical care admission, and eight reporting length of stay, were included in meta-analysis. Random-effects pooled analysis showed that lower socioeconomic status was associated with higher mortality at less than or equal to 30 days following critical care admission, with pooled odds ratio of 1.13 (95% CIs, 1.05-1.22). Meta-analysis of ICU length of stay demonstrated no significant difference between socioeconomic groups. Socioeconomic status may also be associated with functional status and discharge destination following ICU admission.

CONCLUSIONS

Lower socioeconomic status was associated with higher mortality following admission to critical care.

Neurodegenerative disease risk among former international rugby union players

BACKGROUND

Autopsy studies of former contact sports athletes, including soccer and rugby players, frequently report chronic traumatic encephalopathy, a neurodegenerative pathology associated with traumatic brain injury. Nevertheless, little is known about the risk of neurodegenerative disease in these populations. We hypothesised that neurodegenerative disease risk would be higher among former elite rugby union players than the general population.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study accessing national electronic records on death certification, hospital admissions and dispensed prescriptions for a cohort of 412 male Scottish former international rugby union players and 1236 members of the general population, matched to former players by age, sex and area socioeconomic status. Mortality and incident neurodegenerative disease diagnoses among former rugby players were then compared with the matched comparison group.

RESULTS

Over a median 32 years follow-up from study entry at age 30 years, 121 (29.4%) former rugby players and 381 (30.8%) of the matched comparison group died. All-cause mortality was lower among former rugby players until 70 years of age with no difference thereafter. During follow-up, 47 (11.4%) former rugby players and 67 (5.4%) of the comparison group were diagnosed with incident neurodegenerative disease (HR 2.67, 95% CI 1.67 to 4.27, p<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

This study adds to our understanding of the association between contact sports participation and the risk of neurodegenerative disease. While further research exploring this interaction is required, in the meantime strategies to reduce exposure to head impacts and head injuries in sport should be promoted.

Infant feeding method and special educational need in Scottish schoolchildren: a national, retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Although special educational needs (SEN) are increasingly recorded among schoolchildren, infant breastfeeding has been associated with reduced incidence of childhood physical and mental health problems. This study investigated relationships between infant feeding methods and the risk of SEN.

METHODS

A retrospective population cohort of schoolchildren in Scotland was constructed by linking together health (maternity, birth, and health visitor records) and education (annual school pupil census) databases. Inclusion was restricted to singleton children, born in Scotland from 2004 onwards with available breastfeeding data and who attended local authority mainstream or special schools between 2009 and 2013 (most up to date data available). Ethical approval was not required. Generalised estimating equation models with a binomial distribution and logit link function investigated associations between infant feeding method at 6-8 weeks and any-cause and cause-specific SEN, adjusting for sociodemographic (child age, sex, deprivation quintile, and ethnicity) and maternity (age, smoking, parity, 5-min Apgar score, estimated gestation, sex-gestation-specific birthweight centile, marital-status, and mode of delivery) factors.

FINDINGS

Of 191 745 children meeting inclusion criteria, 126 907 (66·2%) were formula-fed, 48 473 (25·3%) exclusively breastfed, and 16 365 (8·5%) mixed fed. Overall, 23 141 (12·1%) children required SEN. Compared with formula feeding, mixed feeding and exclusive breastfeeding were associated with decreased any-cause SEN (OR 0·90, 95% CI 0·84-0·95; and 0·78, 0·75-0·82), and SEN attributed to learning disabilities (0·75, 0·65-0·87; and 0·66, 0·59-0·74), and learning difficulties (0·85, 0·77-0·94; and 0·75, 0·70-0·81). Compared with formula feeding, exclusively breastfed children had less communication problems (0·81, 0·74-0·88), social-emotional-behavioural difficulties (0·77, 0·70-0·84), sensory impairments (0·79, 0·65-0·95), physical motor disabilities (0·78, 0·66-0·91), and physical health conditions (0·74, 0·63-0·87). There were no significant associations for mixed-fed children. Feeding method was not significantly associated with mental health conditions or autism.

INTERPRETATION

Only the 6-8 week feeding method was available, precluding differentiation between never-breastfed infants and those who stopped breastfeeding before 6 weeks. The findings provide further evidence of potential benefits of breastfeeding for child health, lending weight to the need to support mothers to breastfeed. Resources have increased recently but should remain a national priority.

FUNDING

Health Data Research UK (grant reference number MR/S003800/1).

COVID-19 infection and outcomes in a population-based cohort of 17 203 adults with intellectual disabilities compared with the general population

BACKGROUND

Adults with intellectual disabilities (ID) may be at higher risk of COVID-19 death. We compared COVID-19 infection, severe infection, mortality, case fatality and excess deaths, among adults with, and without, ID.

METHODS

Adults with ID in Scotland's Census, 2011, and a 5% sample of other adults, were linked to COVID-19 test results, hospitalisation data and deaths (24 January 2020-15 August 2020). We report crude rates of COVID-19 infection, severe infection (hospitalisation/death), mortality, case fatality; age-standardised, sex-standardised and deprivation-standardised severe infection and mortality ratios; and annual all-cause mortality for 2020 and 2015-2019.

FINDINGS

Successful linkage of 94.9% provided data on 17 203 adults with, and 188 634 without, ID. Adults with ID had more infection (905/100 000 vs 521/100 000); severe infection (538/100 000 vs 242/100 000); mortality (258/100 000 vs 116/100 000) and case fatality (30% vs 24%). Poorer outcomes remained after standardisation: standardised severe infection ratio 2.61 (95% CI 1.81 to 3.40) and mortality ratio 3.26 (95% CI 2.19 to 4.32). These were higher at ages 55-64: 7.39 (95% CI 3.88 to 10.91) and 19.05 (95% CI 9.07 to 29.02), respectively, and in men, and less deprived neighbourhoods. All-cause mortality was slightly higher in 2020 than 2015-2019 for people with ID: standardised mortality ratio 2.50 (95% CI 2.18 to 2.82) and 2.39 (95% CI 2.28 to 2.51), respectively.

CONCLUSION

Adults with ID had more COVID-19 infections, and worse outcomes once infected, particularly adults under 65 years. Non-pharmaceutical interventions directed at formal and informal carers are essential to reduce transmission. All adults with ID should be prioritised for vaccination and boosters regardless of age.

Age within schoolyear and attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder in Scotland and Wales

BACKGROUND

Previous studies suggest an association between age within schoolyear and attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Scotland and Wales have different school entry cut-off dates (six months apart) and policies on holding back children. We aim to investigate the association between relative age and treated attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in two countries, accounting for held-back children.

METHODS

Routine education and health records of 1,063,256 primary and secondary schoolchildren in Scotland (2009-2013) and Wales (2009-2016) were linked. Logistic regression was used to examine the relationships between age within schoolyear and treated ADHD, adjusting for child, maternity and obstetric confounders.

RESULTS

Amongst children in their expected school year, 8,721 (0.87%) had treated ADHD (Scotland 0.84%; Wales 0.96%). In Wales, ADHD increased with decreasing age (youngest quartile, adjusted OR 1.32, 95% CI 1.19-1.46) but, in Scotland, it did not differ between the youngest and oldest quartiles. Including held-back children in analysis of their expected year, the overall prevalence of treated ADHD was 0.93%, and increased across age quartiles in both countries. More children were held back in Scotland (57,979; 7.66%) than Wales (2,401; 0.78%). Held-back children were more likely to have treated ADHD (Scotland OR 2.18, 95% CI 2.01-2.36; Wales OR 1.70, 95% CI 1.21-2.31) and 81.18% of held-back children would have been in the youngest quartile of their expected year.

CONCLUSIONS

Children younger within schoolyear are more likely to be treated for ADHD, suggesting immaturity may influence diagnosis. However, these children are more likely to be held back in countries that permit flexibility, attenuating the relative age effect.

Educational and health outcomes of schoolchildren in local authority care in Scotland: A retrospective record linkage study

BACKGROUND

Looked after children are defined as children who are in the care of their local authority. Previous studies have reported that looked after children have poorer mental and physical health, increased behavioural problems, and increased self-harm and mortality compared to peers. They also experience poorer educational outcomes, yet population-wide research into the latter is lacking, particularly in the United Kingdom. Education and health share a bidirectional relationship; therefore, it is important to dually investigate both outcomes. Our study aimed to compare educational and health outcomes for looked after children with peers, adjusting for sociodemographic, maternity, and comorbidity confounders.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Linkage of 9 Scotland-wide databases, covering dispensed prescriptions, hospital admissions, maternity records, death certificates, annual pupil census, examinations, school absences/exclusions, unemployment, and looked after children provided retrospective data on 715,111 children attending Scottish schools between 2009 and 2012 (13,898 [1.9%] looked after). Compared to peers, 13,898 (1.9%) looked after children were more likely to be absent (adjusted incidence rate ratio [AIRR] 1.27, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.24 to 1.30) and excluded (AIRR 4.09, 95% CI 3.86 to 4.33) from school, have special educational need (SEN; adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 3.48, 95% CI 3.35 to 3.62) and neurodevelopmental multimorbidity (AOR 2.45, 95% CI 2.34 to 2.57), achieve the lowest level of academic attainment (AOR 5.92, 95% CI 5.17 to 6.78), and be unemployed after leaving school (AOR 2.12, 95% CI 1.96 to 2.29). They were more likely to require treatment for epilepsy (AOR 1.50, 95% CI 1.27 to 1.78), attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD; AOR 3.01, 95% CI 2.76 to 3.27), and depression (AOR 1.90, 95% CI 1.62 to 2.22), be hospitalised overall (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR] 1.23, 95% CI 1.19 to 1.28) for injury (AHR 1.80, 95% CI 1.69 to 1.91) and self-harm (AHR 5.19, 95% CI 4.66 to 5.78), and die prematurely (AHR 3.21, 95% CI 2.16 to 4.77). Compared to children looked after at home, children looked after away from home had less absenteeism (AIRR 0.35, 95% CI 0.33 to 0.36), less exclusion (AIRR 0.63, 95% CI 0.56 to 0.71), less unemployment (AOR 0.53, 95% CI 0.46 to 0.62), and better attainment (AIRR 0.31, 95% CI 0.23 to 0.40). Therefore, among those in care, being cared for away from home appeared to be a protective factor resulting in better educational outcomes. The main limitations of this study were lack of data on local authority care preschool or before 2009, total time spent in care, and age of first contact with social care.

CONCLUSIONS

Looked after children had poorer health and educational outcomes than peers independent of increased neurodevelopmental conditions and SEN. Further work is required to understand whether poorer outcomes relate to reasons for entering care, including maltreatment and adverse childhood events, neurodevelopmental vulnerabilities, or characteristics of the care system.

Evaluation of a national smoke-free prisons policy using medication dispensing: an interrupted time-series analysis

BACKGROUND

Internationally, smoking prevalence among people in prison custody (ie, people on remand awaiting trial, awaiting sentencing, or serving a custodial sentence) is high. In Scotland, all prisons implemented a comprehensive smoke-free policy in 2018 after a 16-month anticipatory period. In this study, we aimed to use data on medication dispensing to assess the impact of this policy on cessation support, health outcomes, and potential unintended consequences among people in prison custody.

METHODS

We did an interrupted time-series analysis using dispensing data for 44 660 individuals incarcerated in 14 closed prisons in Scotland between March 30, 2014, and Nov 30, 2019. We estimated changes in dispensing rates associated with the policy announcement (July 17, 2017) and full implementation (Nov 30, 2018) using seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models. Medication categories of primary interest were treatments for nicotine dependence (as an indicator of smoking cessation or abstinence attempts), acute smoking-associated illnesses, and mental health (antidepressants). We included antiepileptic medications as a negative control.

FINDINGS

A 44% step increase in dispensing of treatments for nicotine dependence was observed at implementation (2250 items per 1000 people in custody per fortnight, 95% CI 1875 to 2624) due primarily to a 42% increase in dispensing of nicotine replacement therapy (2109 items per 1000 people in custody per fortnight, 1701 to 2516). A 9% step decrease in dispensing for smoking-related illnesses was observed at implementation, largely accounted for by respiratory medications (-646 items per 1000 people in custody per fortnight, -1111 to -181). No changes associated with announcement or implementation were observed for mental health dispensing or antiepileptic medications (control).

INTERPRETATION

Smoke-free prison policies might improve respiratory health among people in custody and encourage smoking abstinence or cessation without apparent short-term adverse effects on mental health dispensing.

FUNDING

National Institute of Health Research Public Health Research programme, Scottish Government Chief Scientist Office, and UK Medical Research Council.

Suicide among Scottish military veterans: follow-up and trends

OBJECTIVES

The risk of suicide among UK military veterans remains unclear. Few recent studies have been undertaken, and most studies found no clear evidence of increased risk. We used data from the Trends in Scottish Veterans Health cohort to investigate suicides up to 2017 in order to examine whether there have been any changes in the long-term pattern of veteran suicides since our earlier study to 2012, and to compare trends in the risk of suicide among veterans with matched non-veterans.

METHOD

Retrospective cohort study of 78 000 veterans and 253 000 non-veterans born between 1945 and 1995, matched for age, sex and area of residence, using survival analysis to examine the risk of suicide in veterans in comparison with non-veterans overall and by subgroup, and to investigate associations with specific mental health conditions.

RESULTS

Up to 37 years of follow-up, 388 (0.5%) veterans and 1531 (0.6%) non-veterans died from suicide. The risk of suicide among veterans did not differ from non-veterans overall. Increased risk among early service leavers was explained by differences in deprivation, and the previously reported increased risk in female veterans is now confined to older women. Suicide was most common in the fifth decade of life, and around 20 years postservice. A history of mood disorder or post-traumatic stress disorder was non-significantly more common in veterans.

CONCLUSIONS

Veterans are not at increased risk of suicide overall. The highest risk for both men and women is in middle age, many years after leaving service.

Remote history of VTE is associated with severe COVID-19 in middle and older age: UK Biobank cohort study

BACKGROUND

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a common, life-threatening complication of COVID-19 infection. COVID-19 risk-prediction models include a history of VTE. However, it is unclear whether remote history (>9 years previously) of VTE also confers increased risk of COVID-19.

OBJECTIVES

To investigate possible association between VTE and COVID-19 severity, independent of other risk factors.

METHODS

Cohort study of UK Biobank participants recruited between 2006 and 2010. Baseline data, including history of VTE, were linked to COVID-19 test results, COVID-19-related hospital admissions, and COVID-19 deaths. The risk of COVID-19 hospitalization or death was compared for participants with a remote history VTE versus without. Poisson regression models were run univariately then adjusted stepwise for sociodemographic, lifestyle, and comorbid covariates.

RESULTS

After adjustment for sociodemographic and lifestyle confounders and comorbid conditions, remote history of VTE was associated with nonfatal community (RR 1.61, 95% CI 1.02-2.54, p = .039), nonfatal hospitalized (RR 1.52, 95% CI 1.06-2.17, p = .024) and severe (hospitalized or fatal) (RR 1.40, 95% CI 1.04-1.89, p = .025) COVID-19. Associations with remote history of VTE were stronger among men (severe COVID-19: RR 1.68, 95% CI 1.14-2.42, p = .009) than for women (severe COVID-19: RR 1.07, 95% CI 0.66-1.74, p = .786).

CONCLUSION

Our findings support inclusion of remote history of VTE in COVID-19 risk-prediction scores, and consideration of sex-specific risk scores.

Neonatal mortality rates, characteristics, and risk factors for neonatal deaths in Ghana: analyses of data from two health and demographic surveillance systems

Background

Reducing neonatal mortality rates (NMR) in developing countries is a key global health goal, but weak registration systems in the region stifle public health efforts.

Objective

To calculate NMRs, investigate modifiable risk factors, and explore neonatal deaths by place of birth and death, and cause of death in two administrative areas in Ghana.

Methods

Data on livebirths were extracted from the health and demographic surveillance systems in Navrongo (2004–2012) and Kintampo (2005–2010). Cause of death was determined from neonatal verbal autopsy forms. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression were used to analyse factors associated with neonatal death. Multiple imputations were used to address missing data.

Results

The overall NMR was 18.8 in Navrongo (17,016 live births, 320 deaths) and 12.5 in Kintampo (11,207 live births, 140 deaths). The annual NMR declined in both areas. 54.7% of the births occurred in health facilities. 70.9% of deaths occurred in the first week. The main causes of death were infection (NMR 4.3), asphyxia (NMR 3.7) and prematurity (NMR 2.2). The risk of death was higher among hospital births than home births: Navrongo (adjusted OR 1.14, 95% CI: 1.03–1.25, p = 0.01); Kintampo (adjusted OR 1.76, 95% CI: 1.55–2.00, p < 0.01). However, a majority of deaths occurred at home (Navrongo 61.3%; Kintampo 50.7%). Among hospital births dying in hospital, the leading cause of death was asphyxia; among hospital and home births dying at home, it was infection.

Conclusion

The NMR in these two areas of Ghana reduced over time. Preventing deaths by asphyxia and infection should be prioritised, centred respectively on improving post-delivery care in health facilities and subsequent post-natal care at home.

Hip and knee replacement as a proxy measure for lower limb osteoarthritis in Scottish military veterans

INTRODUCTION

Physical activity is an important component of military training. Although injuries and musculoskeletal disorders are the most common cause of medical retirement from the Armed Forces, the long-term risk of lower limb osteoarthritis in veterans is unknown. We used data on hip and knee replacement in Scottish military veterans as a proxy measure.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study of 78 000 veterans born between 1945 and 1995 and a comparison group of 253 000 non-veterans, matched for age, sex and area of residence, followed up for up to 37 years, using survival analysis to examine the risk of hip and knee replacement.

RESULTS

Veterans were significantly less likely to undergo hip replacement than non-veterans, Cox proportional HR 0.87, 95% CI 0.80 to 0.95, p<0.001. There was no significant difference between veterans and non-veterans in respect of knee replacement, HR 1.02, 95% CI 0.94 to 1.11, p=0.643, and there was no difference in the ages at which veterans and non-veterans underwent joint replacement. People who had served for longest in the military had similar risk to those with the shortest service.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on the likelihood of undergoing joint replacement surgery in later life, we found no evidence of a positive association between military service and an increased risk of lower limb osteoarthritis.

Association of Field Position and Career Length With Risk of Neurodegenerative Disease in Male Former Professional Soccer Players

Question

What is the association of field position, career length, and playing era with risk of neurodegenerative disease in male former professional soccer players?

Findings

In this cohort study of 7676 Scottish male former professional soccer players and 23 028 general population control individuals matched by sex, year of birth, and area socioeconomic status, risk of neurodegenerative disease among former soccer players varied by field position and career length but was similar across era of participation.

Meaning

In this study, risk of neurodegenerative disease was higher among former professional soccer players with longer careers and among those in nongoalkeeper positions, indicating that factors associated with nongoalkeeper positions should be scrutinized to mitigate risk; meanwhile, strategies to reduce head impact exposure may be advisable to reduce negative outcomes in this population.

Importance

Neurodegenerative disease mortality is higher among former professional soccer players than general population controls. However, the factors contributing to increased neurodegenerative disease mortality in this population remain uncertain.

Objective

To investigate the association of field position, professional career length, and playing era with risk of neurodegenerative disease among male former professional soccer players.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study used population-based health record linkage in Scotland to evaluate risk among 7676 male former professional soccer players born between January 1, 1900, and January 1, 1977, and 23 028 general population control individuals matched by year of birth, sex, and area socioeconomic status providing 1 812 722 person-years of follow-up. Scottish Morbidity Record and death certification data were available from January 1, 1981, to December 31, 2016, and prescribing data were available from January 1, 2009, to December 31, 2016. Database interrogation was performed on December 10, 2018, and data were analyzed between April 2020 and May 2021.

Exposures

Participation in men’s soccer at a professional level.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Outcomes were obtained by individual-level record linkage to national electronic records of mental health and general hospital inpatient and day-case admissions as well as prescribing information and death certification. Risk of neurodegenerative disease was evaluated between former professional soccer players and matched general population control individuals.

Results

In this cohort study of 30 704 male individuals, 386 of 7676 former soccer players (5.0%) and 366 of 23 028 matched population control individuals (1.6%) were identified with a neurodegenerative disease diagnosis (hazard ratio [HR], 3.66; 95% CI, 2.88-4.65; P < .001). Compared with the risk among general population control individuals, risk of neurodegenerative disease was highest for defenders (HR, 4.98; 95% CI, 3.18-7.79; P < .001) and lowest for goalkeepers (HR, 1.83; 95% CI, 0.93-3.60; P = .08). Regarding career length, risk was highest among former soccer players with professional career lengths longer than 15 years (HR, 5.20; 95% CI, 3.17-8.51; P < .001). Regarding playing era, risk remained similar for all players born between 1910 and 1969.

Conclusions and Relevance

The differences in risk of neurodegenerative disease observed in this cohort study imply increased risk with exposure to factors more often associated with nongoalkeeper positions, with no evidence this association has changed over the era studied. While investigations to confirm specific factors contributing to increased risk of neurodegenerative disease among professional soccer players are required, strategies directed toward reducing head impact exposure may be advisable in the meantime.

Associations between smoke-free vehicle legislation and childhood admissions to hospital for asthma in Scotland: an interrupted time-series analysis of whole-population data

BACKGROUND

In Scotland, childhood admissions to hospital for asthma fell from March, 2006, after legislation was introduced to prohibit smoking in public places. In December, 2016, new Scottish legislation banned smoking in vehicles containing a child. We aimed to determine whether the introduction of this new legislation produced additional benefits.

METHODS

We obtained data on all asthma emergency admissions to hospitals in Scotland between 2000 and 2018 for individuals younger than 16 years. We used interrupted time-series analyses to study changes in monthly incidence of asthma emergency admissions to hospital per 100 000 children after the introduction of smoke-free vehicle legislation, taking into account previous smoke-free interventions. We did subgroup analyses according to age and area deprivation, using the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation, and repeated the analyses for a control condition, gastroenteritis, and other respiratory conditions.

FINDINGS

Of the 32 342 emergency admissions to hospital for asthma among children younger than 16 years over the 19-year study period (Jan 1, 2000, to Dec 31, 2018), 13 954 (43%) were among children younger than 5 years and 18 388 (57%) were among children aged 5-15 years. After the introduction of smoke-free vehicle legislation, there was a non-significant decline in the slope for monthly emergency admissions to hospital for asthma among children younger than 16 years (-1·21%, 95% CI -2·64 to 0·23) relative to the underlying trend in hospital admissions for childhood asthma. However, children younger than 5 years had a significant decline in the slope for monthly asthma admissions (-1·49%, -2·69 to -0·27) over and above the underlying trend among children in this age group (equivalent to six fewer hospitalisations per year), but no such decline was seen in children aged 5-15 years. Monthly admissions to hospital for asthma fell significantly among children living in the most affluent areas (-2·27%, -4·41 to -0·07) but not among those living in the most deprived areas. We found no change in admissions to hospital for gastroenteritis or other respiratory conditions after the introduction of the smoke-free vehicle legislation.

INTERPRETATION

Although legislation banning smoking in vehicles did not affect hospital admissions for severe asthma among children overall or in the older age group, this legislation was associated with a reduction in severe asthma exacerbations requiring hospital admission among preschool children, over and above the underlying trend and previous interventions designed to reduce exposure to second-hand smoke. Similar legislation prohibiting smoking in vehicles that contain children should be adopted in other countries.

FUNDING

None.

Trends in cardiovascular disease in Scottish military veterans: a retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To examine the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Scottish military veterans in comparison with people who had never served in long-term follow-up to 2017, and to compare the findings with our earlier study to 2012 to assess trends.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study with up to 37 years follow-up.

SETTING

Pseudo-anonymised extract of computerised Scottish National Health Service records and national vital records.

PARTICIPANTS

78 000 veterans and 253 000 people with no record of service matched for age, sex and area of residence.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Risk of first occurrence of acute myocardial infarction, peripheral arterial disease and stroke in veterans compared with non-veterans, overall and by sex and birth cohort.

RESULTS

A first episode of CVD was recorded in 5.7% of veterans and 4.8% of non-veterans overall, Cox proportional HR 1.16, 95% CIs 1.12 to 1.20, p=0.001. The difference was only significant for men, and for veterans born before 1960, and was highest in veterans with the shortest service. In all categories, the difference in risk was less than at the end of 2012.

CONCLUSIONS

The excess burden of CVD in veterans which was evident at the end of 2012 has reduced in the following 5 years from 23% to 16% overall. The increased risk continues to affect only those veterans born prior to 1960, suggesting that improvements in military health promotion since 1978, when veterans born from 1960 joined the armed forces, have had an important and ongoing beneficial effect on the long-term health of veterans.

Antenatal Exposure to UV-B Radiation and Preeclampsia: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Background

Risk of preeclampsia varies by month of delivery. We tested whether this seasonal patterning may be mediated through maternal vitamin D concentration using antenatal exposure to UV‐B radiation as an instrumental variable.

Methods and Results

Scottish maternity records were linked to antenatal UV‐B exposure derived from satellites between 2000 and 2010. Logistic regression analyses were used to explore the association between UV‐B and preeclampsia, adjusting for the potential confounding effects of month of conception, child's sex, gestation, parity, and mean monthly temperature. Of the 522 896 eligible singleton deliveries, 8689 (1.66%) mothers developed preeclampsia. Total antenatal UV‐B exposure ranged from 43.18 to 101.11 kJ/m² and was associated with reduced risk of preeclampsia with evidence of a dose‐response relationship (highest quintile of exposure: adjusted odds ratio, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.44–0.72; P<0.001). Associations were demonstrated for UV‐B exposure in all 3 trimesters.

Conclusions

The seasonal patterning of preeclampsia may be mediated through low maternal vitamin D concentration in winter resulting from low UV‐B radiation. Interventional studies are required to determine whether vitamin D supplements or UV‐B–emitting light boxes can reduce the seasonal patterning of preeclampsia.

Alzheimer's Disease Susceptibility Gene Apolipoprotein E (APOE) and Blood Biomarkers in UK Biobank (N = 395,769)

BACKGROUND

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a neurodegenerative condition where the underlying etiology is still unclear. Investigating the potential influence of apolipoprotein E (APOE), a major genetic risk factor, on common blood biomarkers could provide a greater understanding of the mechanisms of AD and dementia risk.

OBJECTIVE

Our objective was to conduct the largest (to date) single-protocol investigation of blood biomarkers in the context of APOE genotype, in UK Biobank.

METHODS

After quality control and exclusions, data on 395,769 participants of White European ancestry were available for analysis. Linear regressions were used to test potential associations between APOE genotypes and biomarkers.

RESULTS

Several biomarkers significantly associated with APOEɛ4 'risk' and ɛ2 'protective' genotypes (versus neutral ɛ3/ɛ3). Most associations supported previous data: for example, ɛ4 genotype was associated with elevated low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL) (standardized beta [b] = 0.150 standard deviations [SDs] per allele, p < 0.001) and ɛ2 with lower LDL (b = -0.456 SDs, p < 0.001). There were however instances of associations found in unexpected directions: e.g., ɛ4 and increased insulin-like growth factor (IGF-1) (b = 0.017, p < 0.001) where lower levels have been previously suggested as an AD risk factor.

CONCLUSION

These findings highlight biomarker differences in non-demented people at genetic risk for dementia. The evidence herein supports previous hypotheses of involvement from cardiometabolic and neuroinflammatory pathways.

Risk factors for mental ill health in UK Army personnel: an overview

Women in the UK military are more commonly diagnosed with a mental health disorder than men, but the reasons for this difference are not fully understood. This literature review identifies the risk factors for mental ill health in military personnel before serving, during service and as a veteran. The interaction of risk factors is complex and, in some cases, may be synergistic, such as experiencing adverse events in childhood and exposure to combat. Identification of risk factors allows further research to better understand differences between men and women, and the impact of these risk factors on army personnel. In turn this will inform better preventive strategies, which could be targeted at the primary, secondary or tertiary levels.

Educational and health outcomes of children and adolescents receiving antidepressant medication: Scotland-wide retrospective record linkage cohort study of 766 237 schoolchildren

Background

Childhood depression is relatively common, under-researched and can impact social and cognitive function and self-esteem.

Methods

Record linkage of routinely collected Scotland-wide administrative databases covering prescriptions [prescribing information system (PIS)], hospitalizations (Scottish Morbidity Records 01 and 04), maternity records (Scottish Morbidity Records 02), deaths (National Records of Scotland), annual pupil census, school absences/exclusions, special educational needs (Scottish Exchange of Educational Data; ScotXed), examinations (Scottish Qualifications Authority) and (un)employment (ScotXed) provided data on 766 237 children attending Scottish schools between 2009 and 2013 inclusively. We compared educational and health outcomes of children receiving antidepressant medication with their peers, adjusting for confounders (socio-demographic, maternity and comorbidity) and explored effect modifiers and mediators.

Results

Compared with peers, children receiving antidepressants were more likely to be absent [adjusted incidence rate ratio (IRR) 1.90, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.85–1.95] or excluded (adjusted IRR 1.48, 95% CI 1.29–1.69) from school, have special educational needs [adjusted odds ratio (OR) 1.77, 95% CI 1.65–1.90], have the lowest level of academic attainment (adjusted OR 3.00, 95% CI 2.51–3.58) and be unemployed after leaving school (adjusted OR 1.88, 95% CI 1.71–2.08). They had increased hospitalization [adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 2.07, 95% CI 1.98–2.18] and mortality (adjusted HR 2.73, 95% CI 1.73–4.29) over 5 years’ follow-up. Higher absenteeism partially explained poorer attainment and unemployment. Treatment with antidepressants was less common among boys than girls (0.5% vs 1.0%) but the associations with special educational need and unemployment were stronger in boys.

Conclusions

Children receiving antidepressants fare worse than their peers across a wide range of education and health outcomes. Interventions to reduce absenteeism or mitigate its effects should be investigated.

Age at entry to UK military service and long-term mental health

INTRODUCTION

It has been suggested that 'junior entry' to the UK Armed Forces (prior to age 17.5 years) increases the risk of adverse mental health outcomes. We used data from a large cohort of veterans to examine long-term mental health outcomes in veterans by age at entry to the UK Armed Forces, compared with non-veterans.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study of 78 157 veterans in Scotland, born between 1945 and 1995 and and 252 637 matched non-veterans, with up to 37 years follow-up, using Cox proportional hazard models to examine the association between veteran status and cumulative risk of major mental health disorder, stratified by birth cohort, and age at recruitment for the veterans.

RESULTS

The risk of mental health disorder in the veterans increased with age at entry, ranging from HR 1.12, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.18, p<0.001 for junior entrants to HR 1.37, 95% CI 1.27 to 1.80, p<0.001 for those aged 20-25 years at entry. The pattern was most marked for veterans born before 1960, and age at recruitment had little impact in recent birth cohorts. Post-traumatic stress disorder accounted for most of the observed differences. Younger age at recruitment was associated with longer service, median 7.4 years (IQR 3.0-14.7) compared with 5.6 years (IQR 2.1-11.7) for entrants aged 20-25 years.

CONCLUSION

We found no evidence that early recruitment is associated with adverse impact on long-term mental health. Paradoxically, it was veterans who entered service at age 20-25 years who demonstrated increased risk, although this attenuated in more recent birth cohorts.

Congenital defects and early childhood outcomes following in-utero exposure to antihypertensive medication

BACKGROUND

Hypertensive disorders during pregnancy are an important risk to mother and fetus, frequently necessitating antihypertensive treatment. Data describing the safety of in-utero exposure to antihypertensive treatment is conflicting with many studies suffering from significant methodological issues.

METHOD

We conducted a retrospective cohort study using linked routinely collected healthcare records for 268 711 children born 2010-2014 in Scotland to assess outcomes following in-utero exposure to antihypertensive medication.

RESULTS

We identified a cohort of 265 488 eligible mother-child pairs born over the study period; of which, 2433 were exposed in utero to antihypertensive medication, 4391 exposed to treated late-onset hypertension and 6066 exposed to untreated hypertension during pregnancy. In-utero antihypertensive exposure was associated with an increased risk of circulatory defects (aOR 2.29; 99% CI 1.14-4.59) compared with normal controls and the untreated hypertensive group. We report no increased odds of any developmental outcomes at 2.5 years of age following exposure to antihypertensive medication during pregnancy, untreated hypertension or late-onset hypertension.

CONCLUSION

Although circulatory defects may be associated with antihypertensive medication exposure during pregnancy, the mechanisms underlying this process are unclear.

Postservice lower limb amputation in Scottish military veterans

INTRODUCTION

Recent attention has focused on veterans who have lost limbs in conflict, but the number of UK veterans who lose limbs to disease is unknown. We used data from the Trends in Scottish Veterans' Health study to explore postservice lower limb amputation.

METHODS

We carried out a retrospective cohort study of 78 000 veterans and 253 000 non-veterans born between 1945 and 1995, matched for age, sex and area of residence. We used survival analysis to examine the risk of amputation in veterans compared with non-veterans, and explored associations with antecedent disease.

RESULTS

We found no difference between veterans and non-veterans in the risk of lower limb amputation, which was recorded in 145 (0.19%) veterans and 464 (0.18%) non-veterans (Cox proportional hazard ratio (HR) 1.00, 95% CIs 0.82 to 1.20, p=0.961). Peripheral arterial disease was recorded in two-thirds of both veteran and non-veteran amputees, and type 2 diabetes in 41% of veterans and 33% of non-veterans, with a dual diagnosis in 32% of veterans and 26% of non-veterans. Trauma was an infrequent cause of amputation.

CONCLUSIONS

Although in later life veterans are no more likely to lose a limb to disease than non-veterans, the number so affected greatly outweighs those who have lost limbs in conflict. The high public profile of conflict-related limb loss risks eclipsing the needs of veterans with disease-related loss. Support for ageing veterans who have lost limbs due to disease will require planning with the same care as that afforded to the victims of conflict if inequalities are to be avoided.

Potential recruitment into a clinical trial of vascular secondary prevention medications in cerebral small vessel disease, based on concomitant medication use

Background

Blood pressure-lowering medications, antiplatelet drugs and statins are often prescribed to asymptomatic patients with white matter hyperintensities (WMH). A clinical trial is needed, but potential trial participants would be excluded if they already had another indication to take the medication. It is likely that many patients with WMH would already have a recognised vascular-related indication for these drugs.

We used data from the UK Biobank study to determine what proportion of people with WMH were not taking these drugs and would be potentially able to enter a clinical trial of antiplatelet drugs, statins, or BP-lowering medication.

Methods

We used the UK Biobank MRI sub-study of healthy volunteers aged 40–70 years as our cohort. We considered that WMH volumes in the top quartile (2.7–89 mls) were severe enough for a patient to be at risk of progression and be offered treatment. Such patients could also be included in a hypothetical clinical trial if there were no contraindications. Using the product licenses, we defined exclusion criteria for four hypothetical clinical trials of aspirin, clopidogrel, statins, and tight BP control. We then calculated what proportion of patients would still be eligible if these criteria were applied.

Results

5794/23,179 patients had WMH in the top quartile. Of these, 4006/5794 69% (95% CI 68–70%) would be eligible for a trial of aspirin; with 81% (95% CI 80–82%) eligible for a trial of clopidogrel; 56% (95% CI 55–58%) of patients would be eligible to enter into a trial of a lower BP target, and 58% (95%CI 57–59%) would be able to enter a trial of a statin.

Conclusions

Over 80% of patients with WMH in the UK biobank would be eligible to enter a trial of an antiplatelet and just over half would be eligible to enter a trial of a statin or BP-lowering medication.

Health, educational and employment outcomes among children treated for a skin disorder: Scotland-wide retrospective record linkage cohort study of 766,244 children

BACKGROUND

To compare health, educational and employment outcomes of schoolchildren receiving medication for a skin disorder with peers.

METHODS

This retrospective population cohort study linked eight Scotland-wide databases, covering dispensed prescriptions, hospital admissions, maternity records, death certificates, annual pupil census, school examinations, school absences/exclusions and unemployment to investigate educational (absence, exclusion, special educational need, academic attainment), employment, and health (admissions and mortality) outcomes of 766,244 children attending local authority run primary, secondary and special schools in Scotland between 2009 and 2013.

RESULTS

After adjusting for sociodemographic and maternity confounders the 130,087 (17.0%) children treated for a skin disorder had increased hospitalisation, particularly within one year of commencing treatment (IRR 1.38, 95% CI 1.35-1.41, p<0.001) and mortality (HR 1.50, 95% CI 1.18-1.90, p<0.001). They had greater special educational need (OR 1.19, 95% CI 1.17-1.21, p<0.001) and more frequent absences from school (IRR 1.07, 95% CI 1.06-1.08, p<0.001) but did not exhibit poorer exam attainment or increased post-school unemployment. The associations remained after further adjustment for comorbid chronic conditions.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite increased hospitalisation, school absenteeism, and special educational need, children treated for a skin disorder did not have poorer exam attainment or employment outcomes. Whilst findings relating to educational and employment outcomes are reassuring, the association with increased risk of mortality is alarming and merits further investigation.

Occupation and risk of severe COVID-19: prospective cohort study of 120 075 UK Biobank participants

OBJECTIVES

To investigate severe COVID-19 risk by occupational group.

METHODS

Baseline UK Biobank data (2006-10) for England were linked to SARS-CoV-2 test results from Public Health England (16 March to 26 July 2020). Included participants were employed or self-employed at baseline, alive and aged <65 years in 2020. Poisson regression models were adjusted sequentially for baseline demographic, socioeconomic, work-related, health, and lifestyle-related risk factors to assess risk ratios (RRs) for testing positive in hospital or death due to COVID-19 by three occupational classification schemes (including Standard Occupation Classification (SOC) 2000).

RESULTS

Of 120 075 participants, 271 had severe COVID-19. Relative to non-essential workers, healthcare workers (RR 7.43, 95% CI 5.52 to 10.00), social and education workers (RR 1.84, 95% CI 1.21 to 2.82) and other essential workers (RR 1.60, 95% CI 1.05 to 2.45) had a higher risk of severe COVID-19. Using more detailed groupings, medical support staff (RR 8.70, 95% CI 4.87 to 15.55), social care (RR 2.46, 95% CI 1.47 to 4.14) and transport workers (RR 2.20, 95% CI 1.21 to 4.00) had the highest risk within the broader groups. Compared with white non-essential workers, non-white non-essential workers had a higher risk (RR 3.27, 95% CI 1.90 to 5.62) and non-white essential workers had the highest risk (RR 8.34, 95% CI 5.17 to 13.47). Using SOC 2000 major groups, associate professional and technical occupations, personal service occupations and plant and machine operatives had a higher risk, compared with managers and senior officials.

CONCLUSIONS

Essential workers have a higher risk of severe COVID-19. These findings underscore the need for national and organisational policies and practices that protect and support workers with an elevated risk of severe COVID-19.

Mental health and suicide in former professional soccer players

INTRODUCTION

There is growing recognition of an association between contact sports participation and increased risk of neurodegenerative disease, including Alzheimer's disease and chronic traumatic encephalopathy. In addition to cognitive impairment, a range of mental health disorders and suicidality are proposed as diagnostic features of traumatic encephalopathy syndrome, the putative clinical syndrome associated with chronic traumatic encephalopathy. However, to date, epidemiological data on contact sport participation and mental health outcomes are limited.

METHODS

For a cohort of former professional soccer players (n=7676) with known high neurodegenerative mortality and their matched general population controls (n=23 028), data on mental health outcomes were obtained by individual-level record linkage to national electronic records of hospital admissions and death certification.

RESULTS

Compared with matched population controls, former professional soccer players showed lower risk of hospital admission for anxiety and stress related disorders, depression, drug use disorders, alcohol use disorders and bipolar and affective mood disorders. Among soccer players, there was no significant difference in risk of hospitalisation for mental health disorders between outfield players and goalkeepers. There was no significant difference in rate of death by suicide between soccer players and controls.

CONCLUSIONS

Among a population of former professional soccer players with known high neurodegenerative disease mortality, hospital admissions for common mental health disorders were lower than population controls, with no difference in suicide. Our data provide support for the reappraisal of currently proposed diagnostic clinical criteria for traumatic encephalopathy syndrome, in particular the inclusion of mental health outcomes.

Modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors for COVID-19, and comparison to risk factors for influenza and pneumonia: results from a UK Biobank prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to investigate demographic, lifestyle, socioeconomic and clinical risk factors for COVID-19, and compared them to risk factors for pneumonia and influenza in UK Biobank.

DESIGN

Cohort study.

SETTING

UK Biobank.

PARTICIPANTS

49-83 year olds (in 2020) from a general population study.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Confirmed COVID-19 infection (positive SARS-CoV-2 test). Incident influenza and pneumonia were obtained from primary care data. Poisson regression was used to study the association of exposure variables with outcomes.

RESULTS

Among 235 928 participants, 397 had confirmed COVID-19. After multivariable adjustment, modifiable risk factors were higher body mass index and higher glycated haemoglobin (HbA1C) (RR 1.28 and RR 1.14 per SD increase, respectively), smoking (RR 1.39), slow walking pace as a proxy for physical fitness (RR 1.53), and use of blood pressure medications as a proxy for hypertension (RR 1.33). Higher forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) and high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol were both associated with lower risk (RR 0.84 and RR 0.83 per SD increase, respectively). Non-modifiable risk factors included male sex (RR 1.72), black ethnicity (RR 2.00), socioeconomic deprivation (RR 1.17 per SD increase in Townsend Index), and high cystatin C (RR 1.13 per SD increase). The risk factors overlapped with pneumonia somewhat, less so for influenza. The associations with modifiable risk factors were generally stronger for COVID-19, than pneumonia or influenza.

CONCLUSION

These findings suggest that modification of lifestyle may help to reduce the risk of COVID-19 and could be a useful adjunct to other interventions, such as social distancing and shielding of high risk.

Comparison of two different frailty measurements and risk of hospitalisation or death from COVID-19: findings from UK Biobank

BACKGROUND

Frailty has been associated with worse prognosis following COVID-19 infection. While several studies have reported the association between frailty and COVID-19 mortality or length of hospital stay, there have been no community-based studies on the association between frailty and risk of severe infection. Considering that different definitions have been identified to assess frailty, this study aimed to compare the association between frailty and severe COVID-19 infection in UK Biobank using two frailty classifications: the frailty phenotype and the frailty index.

METHODS

A total of 383,845 UK Biobank participants recruited 2006-2010 in England (211,310 [55.1%] women, baseline age 37-73 years) were included. COVID-19 test data were provided by Public Health England (available up to 28 June 2020). An adapted version of the frailty phenotype derived by Fried et al. was used to define frailty phenotype (robust, pre-frail, or frail). A previously validated frailty index was derived from 49 self-reported questionnaire items related to health, disease and disability, and mental wellbeing (robust, mild frailty, and moderate/severe frailty). Both classifications were derived from baseline data (2006-2010). Poisson regression models with robust standard errors were used to analyse the associations between both frailty classifications and severe COVID-19 infection (resulting in hospital admission or death), adjusted for sociodemographic and lifestyle factors.

RESULTS

Of UK Biobank participants included, 802 were admitted to hospital with and/or died from COVID19 (323 deaths and 479 hospitalisations). After analyses were adjusted for sociodemographic and lifestyle factors, a higher risk of COVID-19 was observed for pre-frail (risk ratio (RR) 1.47 [95% CI 1.26; 1.71]) and frail (RR 2.66 [95% CI 2.04; 3.47]) individuals compared to those classified as robust using the frailty phenotype. Similar results were observed when the frailty index was used (RR mildly frail 1.46 [95% CI 1.26; 1.71] and RR moderate/severe frailty 2.43 [95% CI 1.91; 3.10]).

CONCLUSIONS

Frailty was associated with a higher risk of severe COVID-19 infection resulting in hospital admission or death, irrespective of how it was measured and independent of sociodemographic and lifestyle factors. Public health strategies need to consider the additional risk that COVID-19 poses in individuals with frailty, including which additional preventive measures might be required.

Is older age associated with COVID-19 mortality in the absence of other risk factors? General population cohort study of 470,034 participants

INTRODUCTION

Older people have been reported to be at higher risk of COVID-19 mortality. This study explored the factors mediating this association and whether older age was associated with increased mortality risk in the absence of other risk factors.

METHODS

In UK Biobank, a population cohort study, baseline data were linked to COVID-19 deaths. Poisson regression was used to study the association between current age and COVID-19 mortality.

RESULTS

Among eligible participants, 438 (0.09%) died of COVID-19. Current age was associated exponentially with COVID-19 mortality. Overall, participants aged ≥75 years were at 13-fold (95% CI 9.13-17.85) mortality risk compared with those <65 years. Low forced expiratory volume in 1 second, high systolic blood pressure, low handgrip strength, and multiple long-term conditions were significant mediators, and collectively explained 39.3% of their excess risk. The associations between these risk factors and COVID-19 mortality were stronger among older participants. Participants aged ≥75 without additional risk factors were at 4-fold risk (95% CI 1.57-9.96, P = 0.004) compared with all participants aged <65 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher COVID-19 mortality among older adults was partially explained by other risk factors. 'Healthy' older adults were at much lower risk. Nonetheless, older age was an independent risk factor for COVID-19 mortality.

Neurodevelopmental multimorbidity and educational outcomes of Scottish schoolchildren: A population-based record linkage cohort study

BACKGROUND

Neurodevelopmental conditions commonly coexist in children, but compared to adults, childhood multimorbidity attracts less attention in research and clinical practice. We previously reported that children treated for attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and depression have more school absences and exclusions, additional support needs, poorer attainment, and increased unemployment. They are also more likely to have coexisting conditions, including autism and intellectual disability. We investigated prevalence of neurodevelopmental multimorbidity (≥2 conditions) among Scottish schoolchildren and their educational outcomes compared to peers.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We retrospectively linked 6 Scotland-wide databases to analyse 766,244 children (390,290 [50.9%] boys; 375,954 [49.1%] girls) aged 4 to 19 years (mean = 10.9) attending Scottish schools between 2009 and 2013. Children were distributed across all deprivation quintiles (most to least deprived: 22.7%, 20.1%, 19.3%, 19.5%, 18.4%). The majority (96.2%) were white ethnicity. We ascertained autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and intellectual disabilities from records of additional support needs and ADHD and depression through relevant encashed prescriptions. We identified neurodevelopmental multimorbidity (≥2 of these conditions) in 4,789 (0.6%) children, with ASD and intellectual disability the most common combination. On adjusting for sociodemographic (sex, age, ethnicity, deprivation) and maternity (maternal age, maternal smoking, sex-gestation-specific birth weight centile, gestational age, 5-minute Apgar score, mode of delivery, parity) factors, multimorbidity was associated with increased school absenteeism and exclusion, unemployment, and poorer exam attainment. Significant dose relationships were evident between number of conditions (0, 1, ≥2) and the last 3 outcomes. Compared to children with no conditions, children with 1 condition, and children with 2 or more conditions, had more absenteeism (1 condition adjusted incidence rate ratio [IRR] 1.28, 95% CI 1.27-1.30, p < 0.001 and 2 or more conditions adjusted IRR 1.23, 95% CI 1.20-1.28, p < 0.001), greater exclusion (adjusted IRR 2.37, 95% CI 2.25-2.48, p < 0.001 and adjusted IRR 3.04, 95% CI 2.74-3.38, p < 0.001), poorer attainment (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 3.92, 95% CI 3.63-4.23, p < 0.001 and adjusted OR 12.07, 95% CI 9.15-15.94, p < 0.001), and increased unemployment (adjusted OR 1.57, 95% CI 1.49-1.66, p < 0.001 and adjusted OR 2.11, 95% CI 1.83-2.45, p < 0.001). Associations remained after further adjustment for comorbid physical conditions and additional support needs. Coexisting depression was the strongest driver of absenteeism and coexisting ADHD the strongest driver of exclusion. Absence of formal primary care diagnoses was a limitation since ascertaining depression and ADHD from prescriptions omitted affected children receiving alternative or no treatment and some antidepressants can be prescribed for other indications.

CONCLUSIONS

Structuring clinical practice and training around single conditions may disadvantage children with neurodevelopmental multimorbidity, who we observed had significantly poorer educational outcomes compared to children with 1 condition and no conditions.

Vitamin D concentrations and COVID-19 infection in UK Biobank

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

COVID-19 and low levels of vitamin D appear to disproportionately affect black and minority ethnic individuals. We aimed to establish whether blood 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) concentration was associated with COVID-19 risk, and whether it explained the higher incidence of COVID-19 in black and South Asian people.

METHODS

UK Biobank recruited 502,624 participants aged 37-73 years between 2006 and 2010. Baseline exposure data, including 25(OH)D concentration and ethnicity, were linked to COVID-19 test results. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed for the association between 25(OH)D and confirmed COVID-19, and the association between ethnicity and both 25(OH)D and COVID-19.

RESULTS

Complete data were available for 348,598 UK Biobank participants. Of these, 449 had confirmed COVID-19 infection. Vitamin D was associated with COVID-19 infection univariably (OR = 0.99; 95% CI 0.99-0.999; p = 0.013), but not after adjustment for confounders (OR = 1.00; 95% CI = 0.998-1.01; p = 0.208). Ethnicity was associated with COVID-19 infection univariably (blacks versus whites OR = 5.32, 95% CI = 3.68-7.70, p-value<0.001; South Asians versus whites OR = 2.65, 95% CI = 1.65-4.25, p-value<0.001). Adjustment for 25(OH)D concentration made little difference to the magnitude of the association.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings do not support a potential link between vitamin D concentrations and risk of COVID-19 infection, nor that vitamin D concentration may explain ethnic differences in COVID-19 infection.

Peripheral arterial disease in Scottish military veterans: a retrospective cohort study of 57 000 veterans and 173 000 matched non-veterans

BACKGROUND

While traumatic limb loss in military personnel is widely known, the threat posed by peripheral arterial disease (PAD) in those who have served is less well recognized. The aim of our study was to examine the risk of PAD in a Scotland-wide cohort of veterans who served between 1960 and 2012.

METHODS

Retrospective 30-year cohort study of 56 205 veterans born 1945-85, and 172 741 non-veterans, matched for age, sex and area of residence, using Cox proportional hazard models to examine the association between veteran status, birth cohort, length of service and risk of PAD leading to hospitalization or death.

RESULTS

Overall, veterans were at increased risk of PAD compared with non-veterans, unadjusted hazard ratio (HR) = 1.46, 95% confidence intervals (CI): 1.33-1.60, P < 0.001. The highest risk was in veterans born between 1950 and 1954, HR = 1.76, 95% CI: 1.50-2.07, P < 0.001, and in those with the shortest service (early service leavers), HR = 1.84, 95% CI: 1.49-2.27, P < 0.001.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings provide evidence for a hidden burden of life- and limb-threatening PAD in older veterans and are consistent with the higher rates of military smoking which have been reported previously. The study emphasizes the need for vascular preventive measures in this group.

Healthy workers or less healthy leavers? Mortality in military veterans

BACKGROUND

The 'healthy worker effect' predicts that longer employment is positively associated with reduced mortality, but few studies have examined mortality in military veterans irrespective of exposure to conflict.

AIMS

To examine mortality in a large national cohort of Scottish veterans by length of service.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study comparing survival in up to 30-year follow-up among 57 000 veterans and 173 000 people with no record of service, matched for age, sex and area of residence, who were born between 1945 and 1985. We compared antecedent diagnoses in the two groups to provide information on probable risk factors.

RESULTS

By the end of follow-up, 3520 (6%) veterans had died, compared with 10 947 (6%) non-veterans. Cox proportional hazard analysis confirmed no significant difference overall unadjusted or after adjusting for deprivation. On subgroup analysis, those who left prematurely (early service leavers) were at significantly increased risk of death (hazard ratio (HR) 1.16, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.09-1.24, P < 0.001), although the increase became non-significant after adjusting for socioeconomic status (HR 1.05, 95% CI 0.99-1.12). Longer-serving veterans were at significantly lower risk of death than non-veterans; the risk decreased both with length of service and in more recent birth cohorts. Smoking-related disease was the greatest contributor to increased mortality in early leavers.

CONCLUSIONS

Among longer-serving veterans, there was evidence of a HWE partly attributable to selective attrition of early service leavers, but birth cohort analysis suggests improvements over time which may also reflect a causal effect of improved in-service health promotion.

Grip Strength and Walking Pace and Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction in 406,834 UK Biobank Participants

OBJECTIVE

To investigate whether the addition of grip strength and/or self-reported walking pace to established cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk scores improves their predictive abilities.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A total of 406,834 participants from the UK Biobank, with baseline measurements between March 13, 2006, and October 1, 2010, without CVD at baseline were included in this study. Associations of grip strength and walking pace with CVD outcomes were investigated using Cox models adjusting for classical risk factors (as included in established risk scores), and predictive utility was determined by changes in C-index and categorical net reclassification index.

RESULTS

Over a median of 8.87 years of follow-up (interquartile range 3, 8.25-9.47 years), there were 7274 composite fatal/nonfatal events (on the basis of the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association [ACC/AHA] outcome) and 1955 fatal events (on the basis of the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation [SCORE] risk score). Both grip strength and walking pace were inversely associated with CVD outcomes after adjusting for classical risk factors. Addition of grip strength (change in C-index: ACC/AHA, +0.0017; SCORE, +0.0047), usual walking pace (ACC/AHA, +0.0031; SCORE, +0.0130), and both combined (ACC/AHA, +0.0041; SCORE, +0.0148) improved the C-index and also improved the net reclassification index (grip, +0.55%; walking pace, +0.53%; combined, 1.12%).

CONCLUSION

The present study has found that the addition of grip strength or usual walking pace to existing risk scores results in improved CVD risk prediction, with an additive effect when both are added. As both these measures are cheap and easy to administer, these tools could provide an important addition to CVD risk screening, although further external validation is required.

The associations of sugar-sweetened, artificially sweetened and naturally sweet juices with all-cause mortality in 198,285 UK Biobank participants: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Recent efforts to address the obesity epidemic have focused on sugar consumption, especially sugar-sweetened beverages. However, sugar takes many forms, is only one contributor to overall energy consumption and is correlated with other health-related lifestyle factors. The objective was to investigate the associations with all-cause mortality of sugar- and artificially sweetened beverages and naturally sweet juices.

METHODS

Setting: UK Biobank, UK. Participants joined the UK Biobank study from 2006 to 2010 and were followed up until 2016; 198,285 men and women aged 40-69 years were eligible for this study (40% of the UK Biobank), of whom 3166 (1.6%) died over a mean of 7 years follow-up.

DESIGN

prospective population-based cohort study. Exposure variables: dietary consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages, artificially sweetened beverages, naturally sweet juices (100% fruit/vegetable juices) and total sugar intake, self-reported via 24-h dietary assessment tool completed between 2009 and 2012.

MAIN OUTCOME

all-cause mortality. Cox regression analyses were used to study the association between the daily intake of the above beverages and all-cause mortality. Models were adjusted for sociodemographic, economic, lifestyle and dietary confounders.

RESULTS

Total energy intake, total sugar intake and percentage of energy derived from sugar were comparable among participants who consumed > 2/day sugar-sweetened beverages and > 2/day fruit/vegetable juices (10,221 kJ/day versus 10,381 kJ/day; 183 g versus 190 g; 30.6% versus 31.0%). All-cause mortality was associated with total sugar intake (highest quintile adj. HR 1.28, 95% CI 1.06-1.55) and intake of sugar-sweetened beverages (> 2/day adj. HR 1.84, 95% CI 1.42-2.37) and remained so in sensitivity analyses. An association between artificially sweetened beverage intake and mortality did not persist after excluding deaths in the first 2 years of follow-up (landmark analysis) nor after excluding participants with recent weight loss. Furthermore, the inverse association between fruit/vegetable juice intake and mortality did not persist after additional adjustment for a diet quality score.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher mortality is associated with sugar-sweetened beverages specifically. The lack of an adverse association with fruit/vegetable juices suggests that source of sugar may be important and the association with artificially sweetened beverage may reflect reverse causation.

In utero exposure to antidepressant medication and neonatal and child outcomes: a systematic review

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study is to systematically review published studies, reporting outcomes to offspring following in utero exposure to antidepressant medications, which used an untreated depressed comparison group.

METHODS

OVID, Scopus, EBSCO Collections, the Cochrane Library and Web of Science databases were searched for relevant publications published between January 1950 and May 2018 and a total of 188 potentially eligible studies were identified.

RESULTS

Following review, 16 primary studies were eligible for inclusion. Antidepressant exposure was associated with an increased risk of lower gestational age, preterm birth, but not low birthweight or being small for gestational age compared to untreated depression. There is some evidence that congenital defects are associated with antidepressant use, particularly between cardiac defects and paroxetine use. There is conflicting evidence regarding neurodevelopment in offspring, with some reports of increased incidence of autistic spectrum disorders and depression, but also reports of no problems when measuring emotional symptoms, peer problems, conduct problems and hyperactivity-inattention scores.

CONCLUSION

When compared with an untreated depressed group, antidepressant exposure was associated with adverse outcomes at birth, while there is insufficient data to determine whether the association between antidepressants and congenital defects or developmental disorders is a true association. However, although we compared treated vs. untreated depression there still may be residual confounding as an untreated depressed group is likely to have less severe depression.

In Utero Antihypertensive Medication Exposure and Neonatal Outcomes: A Data Linkage Cohort Study

Hypertensive disorders during pregnancy are an important risk to mother and fetus, frequently necessitating antihypertensive treatment. Data describing the safety of in utero exposure to antihypertensive treatment is conflicting, with many studies suffering from significant methodological issues, such as inappropriate study design, small sample sizes, and no untreated control group. We conducted a retrospective cohort study using linked routinely collected healthcare records for 268 711 children born 2010-2014 in Scotland to assess outcomes following in utero exposure to antihypertensive medication. We identified a cohort of 265 488 eligible children born over the study period; of which, 2350 were exposed to in utero antihypertensive medication, 4391 exposed to treated late-onset hypertension, and 7971 exposed to untreated hypertension during pregnancy. Untreated hypertension was associated with increased risk of preterm birth (adjusted risk ratio [aRR], 1.15 [99% CI, 1.01-1.30]), low birth weight (aRR, 2.01 [99% CI, 1.72-2.36]) and being small for gestational age (aRR, 1.50 [99% CI, 1.35-1.66]), while in utero antihypertensive exposure was also associated with preterm birth (aRR, 3.12 [99% CI, 2.68-3.64]), low birth weight (aRR, 2.23 [99% CI, 1.79-2.78]), and being small for gestational age (aRR, 2.13 [99% CI, 1.81-2.52]). Late-onset hypertension was also associated with preterm birth (aRR, 2.21 [99% CI, 1.86-2.62]), low birth weight (aRR, 2.06 [99% CI, 1.74-2.43]), and being small for gestational age (aRR, 1.90 [99% CI, 1.68-2.16]). Our results suggest that hypertension is a key risk factor for low birth weight and preterm birth. Although preterm birth may be associated with antihypertensive medication exposure during pregnancy, these associations may reflect increasing hypertension severity necessitating treatment.

UVA and Seasonal Patterning of 56 370 Myocardial Infarctions Across Scotland, 2000-2011

Background

Myocardial infarction exhibits seasonal patterning, with higher amplitude at increased latitude. Epidemiological evidence suggests that sunlight is protective against cardiovascular disease, independent of ambient temperature, but ultraviolet B–mediated vitamin D production has been discounted as causal. We aimed to determine whether ultraviolet A is associated with the seasonal patterning of myocardial infarction.

Methods and Results

Routine hospitalization data were used to determine monthly incidence of myocardial infarction in Scotland between 2000 and 2011. Small‐area–level aggregated data were obtained on ambient temperature from the Meteorological Office and ultraviolet A and ultraviolet B irradiance from NASA satellites. Autoregressive distributed lag models were run for ultraviolet A and myocardial infarction, including adjustment for ambient temperature and ultraviolet B. Monthly incidence of myocardial infarction displayed winter peaks and summer troughs superimposed on the underlying trend, with a mean amplitude of 0.31 (95% CI: 0.21, 0.41) myocardial infarctions per 100 000 population per month. Ultraviolet A exposure was inversely associated with myocardial infarction independent of ambient temperature (coefficient, −0.05; 95% CI, −0.09, −0.01; P=0.015) and ultraviolet B UVB (coefficient, −0.05; 95% CI, −0.09, −0.02; P=0.004).

Conclusions

Further research is required to explore whether an ultraviolet‐mediated mechanism different to vitamin D, such as nitric oxide–mediated vasodilatation, may play a causal role in the seasonal and geographical patterning of myocardial infarction.

The impact of confounding on the associations of different adiposity measures with the incidence of cardiovascular disease: a cohort study of 296 535 adults of white European descent

Aims

The data regarding the associations of body mass index (BMI) with cardiovascular (CVD) risk, especially for those at the low categories of BMI, are conflicting. The aim of our study was to examine the associations of body composition (assessed by five different measures) with incident CVD outcomes in healthy individuals.

Methods and results

A total of 296 535 participants (57.8% women) of white European descent without CVD at baseline from the UK biobank were included. Exposures were five different measures of adiposity. Fatal and non-fatal CVD events were the primary outcome. Low BMI (≤18.5 kg m⁻²) was associated with higher incidence of CVD and the lowest CVD risk was exhibited at BMI of 22–23 kg m⁻² beyond, which the risk of CVD increased. This J-shaped association attenuated substantially in subgroup analyses, when we excluded participants with comorbidities. In contrast, the associations for the remaining adiposity measures were more linear; 1 SD increase in waist circumference was associated with a hazard ratio of 1.16 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.13–1.19] for women and 1.10 (95% CI 1.08–1.13) for men with similar magnitude of associations for 1 SD increase in waist-to-hip ratio, waist-to-height ratio, and percentage body fat mass.

Conclusion

Increasing adiposity has a detrimental association with CVD health in middle-aged men and women. The association of BMI with CVD appears more susceptible to confounding due to pre-existing comorbidities when compared with other adiposity measures. Any public misconception of a potential ‘protective’ effect of fat on CVD risk should be challenged.

Take home figure

Neurodegenerative Disease Mortality among Former Professional Soccer Players

BACKGROUND

Neurodegenerative disorders have been reported in elite athletes who participated in contact sports. The incidence of neurodegenerative disease among former professional soccer players has not been well characterized.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study to compare mortality from neurodegenerative disease among 7676 former professional soccer players (identified from databases of Scottish players) with that among 23,028 controls from the general population who were matched to the players on the basis of sex, age, and degree of social deprivation. Causes of death were determined from death certificates. Data on medications dispensed for the treatment of dementia in the two cohorts were also compared. Prescription information was obtained from the national Prescribing Information System.

RESULTS

Over a median of 18 years, 1180 former soccer players (15.4%) and 3807 controls (16.5%) died. All-cause mortality was lower among former players than among controls up to the age of 70 years and was higher thereafter. Mortality from ischemic heart disease was lower among former players than among controls (hazard ratio, 0.80; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.66 to 0.97; P = 0.02), as was mortality from lung cancer (hazard ratio, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.40 to 0.70; P<0.001). Mortality with neurodegenerative disease listed as the primary cause was 1.7% among former soccer players and 0.5% among controls (subhazard ratio [the hazard ratio adjusted for competing risks of death from ischemic heart disease and death from any cancer], 3.45; 95% CI, 2.11 to 5.62; P<0.001). Among former players, mortality with neurodegenerative disease listed as the primary or a contributory cause on the death certificate varied according to disease subtype and was highest among those with Alzheimer's disease (hazard ratio [former players vs. controls], 5.07; 95% CI, 2.92 to 8.82; P<0.001) and lowest among those with Parkinson's disease (hazard ratio, 2.15; 95% CI, 1.17 to 3.96; P = 0.01). Dementia-related medications were prescribed more frequently to former players than to controls (odds ratio, 4.90; 95% CI, 3.81 to 6.31; P<0.001). Mortality with neurodegenerative disease listed as the primary or a contributory cause did not differ significantly between goalkeepers and outfield players (hazard ratio, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.43 to 1.24; P = 0.24), but dementia-related medications were prescribed less frequently to goalkeepers (odds ratio, 0.41; 95% CI, 0.19 to 0.89; P = 0.02).

CONCLUSIONS

In this retrospective epidemiologic analysis, mortality from neurodegenerative disease was higher and mortality from other common diseases lower among former Scottish professional soccer players than among matched controls. Dementia-related medications were prescribed more frequently to former players than to controls. These observations need to be confirmed in prospective matched-cohort studies. (Funded by the Football Association and Professional Footballers' Association.).