Incorporating uncertainty in Indigenous sea Country monitoring with Bayesian statistics: Towards more informed decision-making

Partnerships in marine monitoring combining Traditional Ecological Knowledge and western science are developing globally to improve our understanding of temporal changes in ecological communities that better inform coastal management practices. A fuller communication between scientists and Indigenous partners about the limitations of monitoring results to identify change is essential to the impact of monitoring datasets on decision-making. Here we present a 5-year co-developed case study from a fish monitoring partnership in northwest Australia showing how uncertainty estimated by Bayesian models can be incorporated into monitoring management indicators. Our simulation approach revealed there was high uncertainty in detecting immediate change over the following monitoring year when translated to health performance indicators. Incorporating credibility estimates into health assessments added substantial information to monitoring trends, provided a deeper understanding of monitoring limitations and highlighted the importance of carefully selecting the way we evaluate management performance indicators.

A large-scale experiment finds no consistent evidence of change in mortality or commercial productivity in silverlip pearl oysters (Pinctada maxima) exposed to a seismic source survey

High-intensity, impulsive sounds are used to locate oil and gas reserves during seismic exploration of the seafloor. The impacts of this noise pollution on the health and mortality of marine invertebrates are not well known, including the silverlip pearl oyster (Pinctada maxima), which comprises one of the world's last remaining significant wildstock pearl oyster fisheries, in northwestern Australia. We exposed ≈11,000 P. maxima to a four-day experimental seismic survey, plus one vessel-control day. After exposure, survival rates were monitored throughout a full two-year production cycle, and the number and quality of pearls produced at harvest were assessed. Oysters from two groups, on one sampling day, exhibited reduced survival and pearl productivity compared to controls, but 14 other groups receiving similar or higher exposure levels did not. We therefore found no conclusive evidence of an impact of the seismic source survey on oyster mortality or pearl production.

Towards detailed predictions of coastal ecosystem function under climate change

The complex ways in which ongoing warming will restructure ecosystems remains poorly understood. A new simulation study in PLOS Biology suggests that expected changes in food resources for marine consumers will outpace the direct, pervasive effects of predicted +2.5°C warming.

TimeFISH: Long-term assessment of reef fish assemblages in a transition zone in the Southwestern Atlantic

The TimeFISH database provides the first public time-series dataset on reef fish assemblages in the southwestern Atlantic (SWA), comprising 15 years of data (2007-2022) based on standardized Underwater Visual Censuses (UVCs). The rocky reefs covered by our dataset are influenced by pronounced seasonal cycles of ocean temperatures with warm tropical waters from the Brazil Current in the summer (~27°C) and colder waters from the La Plata River Plume discharge and upwelling from the South Atlantic Central Water in the winter (~18°C). These oceanographic conditions characterize this area as the southernmost tropical-subtropical climatic transition zone in the Atlantic Ocean. As a result, reef fish assemblages are comprised of both tropical and subtropical species. All records included in TimeFISH were collected using UVCs, a nondestructive method that allows the estimation of fish species richness, abundance, and body size distributions. UVCs were performed through 40 m² belt transects by scuba diving in nine locations along the southern Brazilian coast (25-29°S). Four of these locations lie within the boundaries of the no-entry Arvoredo Marine Biological Reserve, where fishing and recreational activities are forbidden, and the remaining locations are unprotected from these activities. During each belt transect, a diver swam at a constant depth above and parallel to the reef, identifying fish species, counting the number of individuals, and estimating the total body length (Lt in cm) of all detected individuals. All fish individuals in the water column (up to 2 m above the substratum) and at the bottom were targeted. In total, 202,965 individuals belonging to 163 reef fish species and 53 families were recorded across 1857 UVCs. All survey campaigns were funded by either public or mixed capital (private-public) sources, including seven grants from the Brazilian federal and Santa Catarina state governments. Part of the data has already been used in multiple MS.c. and Ph.D. theses and scientific articles. TimeFISH represents an important contribution for future studies aiming to examine temporal and spatial variations of reef fish assemblages in transition zones. No copyright restrictions apply to the use of this data set, other than citing this publication.

Highly conserved thermal performance strategies may limit adaptive potential in corals

Increasing seawater temperatures are expected to have profound consequences for reef-building corals' physiology. Understanding how demography changes in response to chronic exposure to warming will help forecast how coral communities will respond to climate change. Here, we measure growth rates of coral fragments of four common species, while exposing them to temperatures ranging from 19°C to 31°C for one month to calibrate their thermal-performance curves (TPCs). Our results show that, while there are contrasting differences between species, the shape of the TPCs was remarkably consistent among individuals of the same species. The low variation in thermal sensitivity within species may imply a reduced capacity for rapid adaptive responses to future changes in thermal regimes. Additionally, interspecific differences in thermal responses show a negative relationship between maximum growth and thermal optima, contradicting expectations derived from the classic 'warmer-is-better' hypothesis. Among species, there was a trade-off between current and future growth, whereby most species perform well under current thermal regimes but are susceptible to future increases in temperature. Increases in water temperature with climate change are likely to reduce growth rates, further hampering future coral reef recovery rates and potentially altering community composition.

Protecting connectivity promotes successful biodiversity and fisheries conservation

The global decline of coral reefs has led to calls for strategies that reconcile biodiversity conservation and fisheries benefits. Still, considerable gaps in our understanding of the spatial ecology of ecosystem services remain. We combined spatial information on larval dispersal networks and estimates of human pressure to test the importance of connectivity for ecosystem service provision. We found that reefs receiving larvae from highly connected dispersal corridors were associated with high fish species richness. Generally, larval "sinks" contained twice as much fish biomass as "sources" and exhibited greater resilience to human pressure when protected. Despite their potential to support biodiversity persistence and sustainable fisheries, up to 70% of important dispersal corridors, sinks, and source reefs remain unprotected, emphasizing the need for increased protection of networks of well-connected reefs.

Fish predators control outbreaks of Crown-of-Thorns Starfish

Outbreaks of corallivorous Crown-of-Thorns Starfish (CoTS, Acanthaster spp.) have caused persistent and widespread loss of coral cover across Indo-Pacific coral reefs. The potential drivers of these outbreaks have been debated for more than 50 years, hindering effective management to limit their destructive impacts. Here, we show that fish biomass removal through commercial and recreational fisheries may be a major driver of CoTS population outbreaks. CoTS densities increase systematically with increasing fish biomass removal, including for known CoTS predators. Moreover, the biomass of fish species and families that influence CoTS densities are 1.4 to 2.1-fold higher on reefs within no-take marine reserves, while CoTS densities are 2.8-fold higher on reefs that are open to fishing, indicating the applicability of fisheries-based management to prevent CoTS outbreaks. Designing targeted fisheries management with consideration of CoTS population dynamics may offer a tangible and promising contribution to effectively reduce the detrimental impacts of CoTS outbreaks across the Indo-Pacific.

Juvenile corals underpin coral reef carbonate production after disturbance

Sea-level rise is predicted to cause major damage to tropical coastlines. While coral reefs can act as natural barriers for ocean waves, their protection hinges on the ability of scleractinian corals to produce enough calcium carbonate (CaCO₃ ) to keep up with rising sea levels. As a consequence of intensifying disturbances, coral communities are changing rapidly, potentially reducing community-level CaCO₃ production. By combining colony-level physiology and long-term monitoring data, we show that reefs recovering from major disturbances can produce 40% more CaCO₃ than currently estimated due to the disproportionate contribution of juvenile corals. However, the buffering effect of highly productive juvenile corals is compromised by recruitment failures, which have been more frequently observed after large-scale, repeated bleaching events. While the size structure of corals can bolster a critical ecological function on reefs, climate change impacts on recruitment may undermine this buffering effect, thus further compromising the persistence of reefs and their provision of important ecosystem services.

Warming impairs trophic transfer efficiency in a long-term field experiment

In ecosystems, the efficiency of energy transfer from resources to consumers determines the biomass structure of food webs. As a general rule, about 10% of the energy produced in one trophic level makes it up to the next^1-3. Recent theory suggests that this energy transfer could be further constrained if rising temperatures increase metabolic growth costs⁴, although experimental confirmation in whole ecosystems is lacking. Here we quantify nitrogen transfer efficiency-a proxy for overall energy transfer-in freshwater plankton in artificial ponds that have been exposed to seven years of experimental warming. We provide direct experimental evidence that, relative to ambient conditions, 4 °C of warming can decrease trophic transfer efficiency by up to 56%. In addition, the biomass of both phytoplankton and zooplankton was lower in the warmed ponds, which indicates major shifts in energy uptake, transformation and transfer^5,6. These findings reconcile observed warming-driven changes in individual-level growth costs and in carbon-use efficiency across diverse taxa^4,7-10 with increases in the ratio of total respiration to gross primary production at the ecosystem level^11-13. Our results imply that an increasing proportion of the carbon fixed by photosynthesis will be lost to the atmosphere as the planet warms, impairing energy flux through food chains, which will have negative implications for larger consumers and for the functioning of entire ecosystems.

TRY plant trait database - enhanced coverage and open access

Plant traits-the morphological, anatomical, physiological, biochemical and phenological characteristics of plants-determine how plants respond to environmental factors, affect other trophic levels, and influence ecosystem properties and their benefits and detriments to people. Plant trait data thus represent the basis for a vast area of research spanning from evolutionary biology, community and functional ecology, to biodiversity conservation, ecosystem and landscape management, restoration, biogeography and earth system modelling. Since its foundation in 2007, the TRY database of plant traits has grown continuously. It now provides unprecedented data coverage under an open access data policy and is the main plant trait database used by the research community worldwide. Increasingly, the TRY database also supports new frontiers of trait-based plant research, including the identification of data gaps and the subsequent mobilization or measurement of new data. To support this development, in this article we evaluate the extent of the trait data compiled in TRY and analyse emerging patterns of data coverage and representativeness. Best species coverage is achieved for categorical traits-almost complete coverage for 'plant growth form'. However, most traits relevant for ecology and vegetation modelling are characterized by continuous intraspecific variation and trait-environmental relationships. These traits have to be measured on individual plants in their respective environment. Despite unprecedented data coverage, we observe a humbling lack of completeness and representativeness of these continuous traits in many aspects. We, therefore, conclude that reducing data gaps and biases in the TRY database remains a key challenge and requires a coordinated approach to data mobilization and trait measurements. This can only be achieved in collaboration with other initiatives.

The energetics of fish growth and how it constrains food-web trophic structure

The allocation of metabolic energy to growth fundamentally influences all levels of biological organisation. Here we use a first-principles theoretical model to characterise the energetics of fish growth at distinct ontogenetic stages and in distinct thermal regimes. Empirically, we show that the mass scaling of growth rates follows that of metabolic rate, and is somewhat steeper at earlier ontogenetic stages. We also demonstrate that the cost of growth, E_m , varies substantially among fishes, and that it may increase with temperature, trophic level and level of activity. Theoretically, we show that E_m is a primary determinant of the efficiency of energy transfer across trophic levels, and that energy is transferred more efficiently between trophic levels if the prey are young and sedentary. Overall, our study demonstrates the importance of characterising the energetics of individual growth in order to understand constraints on the structure of food webs and ecosystems.

Do low oxygen environments facilitate marine invasions? Relative tolerance of native and invasive species to low oxygen conditions

Biological invasions are one of the biggest threats to global biodiversity. Marine artificial structures are proliferating worldwide and provide a haven for marine invasive species. Such structures disrupt local hydrodynamics, which can lead to the formation of oxygen-depleted microsites. The extent to which native fauna can cope with such low oxygen conditions, and whether invasive species, long associated with artificial structures in flow-restricted habitats, have adapted to these conditions remains unclear. We measured water flow and oxygen availability in marinas and piers at the scales relevant to sessile marine invertebrates (mm). We then measured the capacity of invasive and native marine invertebrates to maintain metabolic rates under decreasing levels of oxygen using standard laboratory assays. We found that marinas reduce water flow relative to piers, and that local oxygen levels can be zero in low flow conditions. We also found that for species with erect growth forms, invasive species can tolerate much lower levels of oxygen relative to native species. Integrating the field and laboratory data showed that up to 30% of available microhabitats within low flow environments are physiologically stressful for native species, while only 18% of the same habitat is physiologically stressful for invasive species. These results suggest that invasive species have adapted to low oxygen habitats associated with manmade habitats, and artificial structures may be creating niche opportunities for invasive species.

Estimating monotonic rates from biological data using local linear regression

Accessing many fundamental questions in biology begins with empirical estimation of simple monotonic rates of underlying biological processes. Across a variety of disciplines, ranging from physiology to biogeochemistry, these rates are routinely estimated from non-linear and noisy time series data using linear regression and ad hoc manual truncation of non-linearities. Here, we introduce the R package LoLinR, a flexible toolkit to implement local linear regression techniques to objectively and reproducibly estimate monotonic biological rates from non-linear time series data, and demonstrate possible applications using metabolic rate data. LoLinR provides methods to easily and reliably estimate monotonic rates from time series data in a way that is statistically robust, facilitates reproducible research, and is applicable to a wide variety of research disciplines in the biological sciences.

Energetic and ecological constraints on population density of reef fishes

Population ecology has classically focused on pairwise species interactions, hindering the description of general patterns and processes of population abundance at large spatial scales. Here we use the metabolic theory of ecology as a framework to formulate and test a model that yields predictions linking population density to the physiological constraints of body size and temperature on individual metabolism, and the ecological constraints of trophic structure and species richness on energy partitioning among species. Our model was tested by applying Bayesian quantile regression to a comprehensive reef-fish community database, from which we extracted density data for 5609 populations spread across 49 sites around the world. Our results indicate that population density declines markedly with increases in community species richness and that, after accounting for richness, energetic constraints are manifested most strongly for the most abundant species, which generally are of small body size and occupy lower trophic groups. Overall, our findings suggest that, at the global scale, factors associated with community species richness are the major drivers of variation in population density. Given that populations of species-rich tropical systems exhibit markedly lower maximum densities, they may be particularly susceptible to stochastic extinction.

Diet and diversification in the evolution of coral reef fishes

The disparity in species richness among evolutionary lineages is one of the oldest and most intriguing issues in evolutionary biology. Although geographical factors have been traditionally thought to promote speciation, recent studies have underscored the importance of ecological interactions as one of the main drivers of diversification. Here, we test if differences in species richness of closely related lineages match predictions based on the concept of density-dependent diversification. As radiation progresses, ecological niche-space would become increasingly saturated, resulting in fewer opportunities for speciation. To assess this hypothesis, we tested whether reef fish niche shifts toward usage of low-quality food resources (i.e. relatively low energy/protein per unit mass), such as algae, detritus, sponges and corals are accompanied by rapid net diversification. Using available molecular information, we reconstructed phylogenies of four major reef fish clades (Acanthuroidei, Chaetodontidae, Labridae and Pomacentridae) to estimate the timing of radiations of their subclades. We found that the evolution of species-rich clades was associated with a switch to low quality food in three of the four clades analyzed, which is consistent with a density-dependent model of diversification. We suggest that ecological opportunity may play an important role in understanding the diversification of reef-fish lineages.

Scaling metabolism from individuals to reef-fish communities at broad spatial scales

Fishes contribute substantially to energy and nutrient fluxes in reef ecosystems, but quantifying these roles is challenging. Here, we do so by synthesising a large compilation of fish metabolic-rate data with a comprehensive database on reef-fish community abundance and biomass. Individual-level analyses support predictions of Metabolic Theory after accounting for significant family-level variation, and indicate that some tropical reef fishes may already be experiencing thermal regimes at or near their temperature optima. Community-level analyses indicate that total estimated respiratory fluxes of reef-fish communities increase on average ~2-fold from 22 to 28 °C. Comparisons of estimated fluxes among trophic groups highlight striking differences in resource use by communities in different regions, perhaps partly reflecting distinct evolutionary histories, and support the hypothesis that piscivores receive substantial energy subsidies from outside reefs. Our study demonstrates one approach to synthesising individual- and community-level data to establish broad-scale trends in contributions of biota to ecosystem dynamics.